How to survive the Global Chaos of 2014

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Well looks like Putin intends to commit full on financial suicide...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-drop-amid-global-worries-150202166.html

U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, with the benchmark indexes recording their worst session since July 31, as Apple (AAPL) tumbled on glitches tied to its new smartphone and as investors considered a proposal in Russia that would let its courts seize foreign assets.

"That would signal a threat from the Kremlin that the Russian-U.S.-Europe conflict economically might take a turn for the worse. They are signaling that unless concessions or negotiations take place, we're prepared to do this," said Jim Russell, senior equity strategist for US Bank Wealth Management.

"It's a turn for the worse, it's an unwelcome signaling from the Kremlin that this, a limitation on capital flows to Russia, is a possibility," Russell said.

Reuters reported the draft law, submitted to Russia's parliament on Wednesday by a pro-Kremlin deputy, would also allow state compensation for those whose assets were taken in foreign jurisdictions. The proposed measure comes after Italy froze luxury properties owned by a longtime friend of President Vladimir Putin, Bloomberg reported.

TheCBOE Volatility Index (^VIX), a measure of investor uncertainty, jumped 17.9 percent to 15.64; the price of gold turned higher and Treasuries rallied.

Apple (AAPL) dropped 3.8 percent as the iPhone maker contended with glitches in the latest version of its operating system. Twitter (TWTR) and Pandora Media (NYSE:P) led declines among Internet firms. The Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) of smaller companies dropped 1.3 percent.

"It's a sell what is expensive kind of move. Small caps did especially well last year and for the first half of 2014, so it's more of a valuation correction. This sort of internal rotation is a constructive adjustment to getting valuations to a more rational level," Russell said.

Read More Midday movers: Apple, GameStop, H.B. Fuller & more

Economic reports had orders for long-lasting goods falling 18.2 percent in August, while applications for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 293,000 last week, less than the 300,000 estimate.

A third number came from financial-data firm Markit, which said its initial services Purchasing Managers Index for September came in at 58.5 versus an expected 59.0.

After a 264-point drop that pushed it below 17,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) dropped 264.26 points, or 1.5 percent, to 16,945.80, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) leading blue-chip declines that extended to all 30 components.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 32.31 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,965.99, with technology knocked the hardest among its 10 main industry groups.

The Nasdaq (^IXIC) declined 88.47 points, or 1.9 percent, to 4,466.75.

For every share rising, five fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 737 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.3 billion.

The Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah was likely keeping a portion of investors sidelined.

The dollar (Exchange:.DXY) extended its advance versus the currencies of major U.S. trading partners, while dollar-denominated commodities including gold and oil were mixed.

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Shanghai (AFP) - The largest stock offer in history has made Jack Ma, founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, China's richest person with a fortune of $25 billion, an annual wealth ranking in the world's second largest economy showed Tuesday.

Not a bad days work 

Except that apart from any shares he sold post IPO he got no cash. That's just a valuation of his stake in the firm.
If all the shares were to be sold tomorrow the price per share would plummet.

It's kinda like thinking oneself rich because of the equity in one's home. The equity can be tapped only by selling (in which case the value is only what the market says at the time of the sale) or by borrowing, which is not an increase in wealth.

If as, has been suggested, the sale marks a peak in the market then the next stop will be downward.

By the way, it seems that the shares sold were not shares in AliBaba but in a holding company: http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0901/Alibaba-IPO-Why-investors-won-t-get-actual-Alibaba-stock
Nice trick. I understand the legal reasoning for doing it but what guarantee is there that legislative changes (or cupidity of the real owners) won't de-couple the two entities leaving shareholders with worthless paper in a business with no 'business'?

I completely agree with Andrew - the company BABA is a Grand Cayman Islands Holding Company with a promise of profit sharing among all the Alibaba companies... see wikipedia list below...  even Warren Buffet said he would not invest in this structure since the level of transparancy is laughable - the Chinese government does not allow foreign ownership of any of its internet or web companys - Alibaba has an unfair advantage due to onerous rules set up against Google, Facebook, Ebay or Amazon yet over 40 major institutions in the USA wanted to subscribe to the $1B USD  minimum fund allocations to hold long term and resell to their members.   That said the Chinese like tapping the bottomless well that is the NYSE and I am sure many Chinese officials got rich on friends and family shares and would like to keep this golden goose laying eggs far into the Future...  Russia could tap the same well if they were not so damned corrupt.  Putin has convinced me that his ego is in the process of taking a crocodile sized chunk out of his arse and the Russian people will be the ones who economically suffer.   The Chinese negotiating bargain basement prices for Russian Oil and looking at absorbing Siberia over the next 100 years as the Russian population continues its rapid contraction compounded by China's friendly treatment of investors (in Chinese entities) - China has as much to lose by screwing BABA investors over the long haul as it might gain in the short run.   

A concept that escapes the Russian mentality of get all you can get now while the getting is good because you never know who will invade or or become the next Cult of Personality Autocratic Tyrant  tomorrow.
So the BABA offering was oversubscribed by a factor of approx 2 times and could have raised far more than $25 billion cash they did raise.  Why?  TaoBao/Alibaba Group has over 500 Million Chinese users, 80% of the Chinese ecommerce markets and 60% of all package deliveries in China...  China the manufacturing cheap labor camp with no OSHA or EPA regulations for Walmart, Microsoft, HP, Apple and a host of other Tech Companies and Auto companies in USA and Europe is crying about a 7%+ GDP as a drastic retraction...  led by the Communist Red Army and One Party Politburu they have become the most successful predatory capitalists in human history - the definition or irony. 

Yet these institutions who invested made a calculus that modern China is basically ruled by a board of Directors that keep China's President's feet to the fire unlike the cults of personality that ruled during the previous century. 

Russia could take a page out of China's book and progress past the current Cult of Personality system so reminiscent of Stalinism they now have masquerading as a Democracy. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alibaba_Group

Type   Public
Traded as   NYSE: BABA
Industry   Internet, e-commerce, computer software
Founded   Hangzhou, China (4 April 1999)
Headquarters   Hangzhou, China
Area served   Worldwide
Key people   
Jack Ma (Chairman)
Jonathan Lu (CEO)
Joseph Tsai (Vice Chairman)
Revenue   Increase USD 7.5 billion (2013) [1]
Employees   Increase 22,000 (March 2014)[2]
Subsidiaries   
Alibaba Cloud Computing
Alibaba.com Ltd.
Alisoft Holding Limited
AutoNavi Holdings Ltd
China Yahoo!
ChinaVision Media Group Limited
cnzz.com, Inc.
eTao
Taobao.com
Tmall.com
Website   www.alibaba.com

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Russia Is Considering A Crazy New Law That Would Allow The State To Seize Foreign Assets

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-considering-crazy-law-allow-110000465.html

In another dark twist to the West's standoff with Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, a pro-Kremlin deputy has submitted a draft law that would allow the government to seize foreign assets in the country in response to Western economic sanctions.

The law, submitted after Italian authorities seized €30m worth of shares and bank accounts belonging to the Russian businessman Arkady Rotenberg, would also allow for oligarchs to get compensation from the state in the case of an "unjust judicial act of a foreign court." The full (Russian language) text of the draft law can be found here.

Given Russia's parlous economic position — GDP grew only 0.8% this year — the concept of using state funds to bail out multimillionaire businessmen may be received poorly in the country. Already opposition leaders are rounding on the government with Boris Nemtsov, co-chair of the RPR-PARNAS political party and outspoken critic of Vladimir Putin, writing on Facebook:

What is [the benefit of] a strongman's friendship? It's when you have 4 villas, apartments and a hotel seized in Italy and your accomplice in the Kremlin immediately introduces a bill for damages from the Russian budget.

As Business Insider previously noted, earlier this month US President Barack Obama unveiled new sanctions against Russia's financial, energy, and defense sectors. The move dealt another heavy blow to the country's fragile economy with its own central bank bemoaning "a nemic economic growth" caused by a combination of "external uncertainty" and domestic chokes (in particular low levels of investment and weak labor productivity).

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REAL ESTATE Go Where You Are Treated Best

Email Newsletter update from The Nomad Capitalist - a reputable younger version of the Sovereign Society with a more Global focus.

Dateline: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Seventeenth century Holland was ruled by a class of wealthy patricians known as the regenten. Similar to Rome’s patricians, the regenten was a group of merchant families who used crony capitalism to control almost all matters of government.

In typical narcissistic fashion, the Heren regenten named one of the first canals in Amsterdam after themselves. The Herengrach canal was home to the city’s “Golden Bend”, where the Herengracht maintained their homes among a lavish strip of real estate that included large mansions, carriage houses, and lush gardens.

Peter the Great even stayed at one of the mansions there.

While Amsterdam is still famed to this day for its canals, there is something else that hasn’t changed since the Dutch regenten ruled the place. That is, real estate did not appreciate over the course of nearly 350 years.

One study conducted from 1628 to 1973 showed that, absent inflation, capital appreciation in Amsterdam appreciation was zero.

That’s why I always cringe at the refrain: “Buy real estate. It never goes down.”
Coming from a western background, you and I know that real estate most certainly does go down. In Las Vegas, for instance, prices fell from a peak of $299,000 for the average single-family home in 2006… all the way down to barely $100,000 a few years later.

Las Vegas is now “recovering” at a slow pace and will likely never return to the bubble levels of the go-go days. At least until the next phase of irrational exuberance tempts fate.

Here in fast-growing Southeast Asia, much of the real estate scene looks like an earlier version of Las Vegas. To be fair, countries here have real growth in population, income, and consumerism. But that doesn’t mean that prices won’t plateau or even drop.
 
For instance, prices here in Kuala Lumpur are still below levels after the Asian financial crisis after two plunges in the early 1990s, but I still expect a mild correction over the next few years.
Other parts of the region, such as Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, have outrageous property bubbles that still have to be sorted out.

Meanwhile, property in parts of the tattered European Union remains overvalued.
That’s one reason I often prefer seeking out cash flow over capital appreciation. For many people, getting rich (or richer) slowly and on a consistent schedule is better than taking one whack at it and hoping to succeed. And as you’ll see, you don’t have to get rich that slowly if you think a little outside the box.
For me, income from real estate can be a staple of any portfolio. As an entrepreneurial investor who is used to having to generate cash flow in order to stay in business, I’m very much an “income guy”.
Real estate income is just as useful for funding a move overseas in search of greater freedom as it is for generating cash to have steady cash flow to invest in other assets.

There is a place for holding assets as stores of value, namely gold and silver or agricultural property, but owning an entire portfolio of rather illiquid real estate merely because that’s “what people do” to make money where you live doesn’t make much sense.

It makes even less sense if you live in a country like The Land of the Free where over-priced property markets don’t even have the ongoing growth that markets here in Asia do to protect them against the next crash.

Using the “five magic words” I shared at this year’s Passport to Freedom conference, you can dramatically increase your rental yields from real estate investing.

Quite simply, “go where you’re treated best”.

In fact, investing in your own market is not only ill-advised as part of true international diversification but also likely not the best place to make money.

If your goal is income, buying a house down the street to rent out is probably not bringing in as much money as you could make elsewhere.

Let’s take an example of a friend of mine who lives in Monaco. If you can afford to live on the French Riviera, Monaco is a great place to be. It’s highly developed, beautiful, and you can avail yourself of the microstate’s zero income tax.

However, Monaco has the world’s lowest real estate rental yields on record. At well under 2%, you’d make about as much money investing in Monaco real estate as you would with a so-called “high yield” savings account at an insolvent US bank.

Yields in major markets in the United States aren’t much better, with most of New York City’s boroughs averaging 3% or less. The idea of tying $1,000,000 up to buy a shoebox in a city with an out of control socialist government – all to make a taxable $30,000 a year – doesn’t exactly appeal to me.
However, if you are willing to look outside of your own neighborhood, you can enjoy several benefits by investing in income producing real estate overseas.

First, let’s review a few benefits of owning high yield income real estate overseas…

1.   Lower taxes
There are a handful of countries with low or no property taxes on real estate. Additionally, some countries take a very lax attitude toward taxing rental income. And because you are unlikely to have other income in that country, any taxes that are assessed with have a lower basis.
2.   Better capital appreciation prospects
While developed countries like the US suffer the ebb and flow of booms and busts based on credit bubbles, many emerging markets have solid fundamentals backing them up. If you can find the right markets, you’ll not only enjoy a high yield but will be less likely to have the bottom fall out from underneath you.
3.    All of the benefits of foreign real estate
I’m a big fan of foreign real estate for a lot of reasons, including the fact that it’s a lot harder for your local government to simply grab if they decide to start confiscating wealth.
4.   4. Potential for future yield seekers
Just as the success of any consumer product or service invites competition that lowers prices, high yields can often suggest property prices that are out of whack with the rental market. We talk about the concept of “buying when blood is in the streets“, and a high yield can suggest that, if you choose a place with solid fundamentals, you could see appreciation when markets adjust to reality.
5.   
Those reasons are on top of much higher yields.

While I’m particularly fond of my high-yield tourist rental strategy, there are a number of hidden gems that offer capital appreciation, low barriers to entry, low taxes, and high yields.

For ultimate yield, Chisnau, Moldova takes the cake. Moldova itself is a breakaway republic from Romania and is the poorest country in Europe. It’s also allegedly the unhappiest country on earth. But if you’re willing to deal with the country’s ongoing secession issues with its own Transnistria region, real estate in the capital city pays an average 10% yield. Some projects have gotten into the 20% range.

That’s a safer 20% return than storing your cash in a money laundering Ukrainian bank next door.
If you crave a little more stability, countries like Montenegro – where I reported from this past summer – offer the prospect of future EU membership along with a bustling tourist season. Gorgeous beaches and scores of beautiful Russians coming in every year don’t hurt the appeal.

If you hate being a landlord out of fear of getting paid, Amman, Jordan might be for you. In that Middle Eastern city, leases are customarily paid for a full year in advance.

Nicaragua offers a growing amount of tourism combined with yields in the 7-8% neighborhood. Or you can buy an ocean view home near the beach for as little as $100,000 and rent it to visitors for up to $100 a night. I’m such a fan of Nicaragua as the “next big thing” in Central America that I’m holding a three-day, boots-on-the-ground investment tour there for Members of The Nomad Society this November.

Nearby, Panama offers the benefits of relative stability, a peg to the US dollar, low taxes, and high yields. Select Panama City real estate earns low double-digit yields with a relatively low price point.

The key to finding the best rental yield markets is doing your homework and understanding everything you’re getting into. Budapest, Hungary is a gorgeous city – perhaps the most beautiful in Europe – and I’d love to invest there if the ultra-cheap real estate didn’t require making a long bet on Hungary’s worthless forint currency that the government seems to love devaluing.

Likewise, the Philippines is an interesting place, but I recently took a more negative opinion on the luxury apartment scene than I had before. If you had a Filipino citizen to invest with, however, there are some excellent and rather cheap opportunities for properties foreigners can’t own.

I’ve assembled several experts on international real estate investing and proven ways to earn excellent returns – or occasionally just some fast cash – investing in foreign property. These experts will be convening at Passport to Freedom in Cancun next January, and if you’re interested in safeguarding some of your capital in real estate offshore, you should definitely plan on attending. I’m calling it “the Woodstock of offshore” for a reason; you’ll have the chance to meet everyone you need to grow and protect your fortune all in one place. Details are here.  http://nomadcapitalist.com/shop/passport-to-freedom/

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Not a big fan of conspiracy theories - however if this is true...


US of America Needs an Enemy
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Profit Seeker

Dear Sovereign Investor,

It is a universal truth that government will do anything to maintain its power. Some of what it does is good. Some is bad. Some is nefarious. It’s the nefarious actions that give rise to conspiracy theories because the actions happen in the shadows of the world, never in the disinfecting sunlight. Because of that, brushing off conspiracy theories as meaningless, stupid or illogical is easy.

But that doesn’t mean every theory is wrong.

This is the story of one such conspiracy theory playing out now before our very eyes. Is it true? As with all such theories, it’s impossible to say. But through the lens of an open mind, a certain plausibility does emerge.

And if it is true … well, then, you should be prepared for potential upheaval like we haven’t seen in decades.
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The man in Panama approached and he was animated.

I’d just stepped off stage after giving my keynote presentation at our Total Wealth Symposium earlier this month. I’d told the 400 or so people in the crowd why I worry that wealth confiscation is in America’s near-term future. The man had a bone to pick.

“All that stuff you’re talking about,” he started. “That’s nothing. You’re missing a much bigger picture that will change our country.”

First, I should tell you this man is retired U.S. Air Force. An officer. He flew numerous combat missions and worked at a level I won’t divulge for his own privacy … but suffice it to say he was flying missions at the highest levels for America. He remains plugged into the military at extremely high levels. And what he told me initially struck me as pure conspiracy …

“You need to know — and you need to tell these people — that America is behind ISIS. We’re funding them,” he said, clearly angry and frustrated at the direction the America he once knew has begun to drift.

Like I said, pure conspiracy theory.

And then two days later I read a New York Times dispatch from Baghdad reporting that many people across the Middle East — including those high up in the U.S.-backed Iraqi government — are absolutely certain that our own C.I.A. is the money and the muscle behind the ISIS militant group.

And so I pondered this set of coincidences for a bit. Is it just conspiracy theory? Or might there be some secret truth hidden?

A History of Covert Meddling

Let’s agree that the U.S. government is not innocent.

Our government has a history of meddling covertly in the affairs of sovereign nations — always to achieve some ulterior American aim … and always with consequences we might not necessarily want or expect. Our backing of Iran’s shah is the reason Iran is so militant today. We have played black-op games in Nicaragua, Cuba, El Salvador, Greece, Angola, Pakistan, Cambodia … even Australia. Our invasions and warfare in Iraq have led to instability that is destroying that country.

And now comes ISIS — an insane collection of Islamic lunatics who believe an oppressive and violent caliphate should once again rule the Muslim world.

Why would America have any interest in backing such murderous thuggery? What ulterior motive would it serve?

America needs an enemy.

Our government thrives on warfare; always has. War keeps America relevant globally … and it gives government the cover it needs to curtail liberties and freedoms here at home. It gives government reason to rally the citizenry as the long-term health of the nation deteriorates.

If there’s a credible terrorist threat, America gets to maintain her costly war footing. She gets to deploy troops around the world. She gets to define the global agenda and spend crazy sums of money on armaments, which is one way of propping up an economy weighed down by too much debt. She gets to impose her wishes on the world under the guise of protecting the world from evil … even if it is an evil she created just so she could tear it down.

It’s no different than a firefighter moonlighting as an arsonist. He wants to feel relevant and to justify his job.

For America, maybe there’s an even deeper motive…

The Hidden Benefit of High-Priced Oil

A lot of commentators fawn these days over America’s sudden abundance of oil, thanks to the fracking of shale that has unlocked vast quantities of crude beneath our land.

At the same time, a lot of us frown these days over America’s monolithic and ultimately un-repayable debts.

Imagine the benefit to America’s finances from a huge spike in oil prices that generates a substantially larger royalty stream flowing into the Treasury Department. And imagine if the federal government was to raise the royalty rate that oil companies must pay to the country, which the government has been exploring?

Instead of nearly $11 billion a year flowing into the Treasury’s coffers, as it did last year, Treasury might see royalties that are double or triple that … maybe four or five times that number. Who knows?

But what would certainly get us moving in that direction are events in the Middle East that saw ISIS take control of substantial oil assets in southern Iraq … or events that saw upheaval in Saudi Arabia, the world’s most important oil supplier.

The Saudis, you should know, are now involved, at America’s request/urging, in bombing ISIS positions in Syria.

You also should know that the Saudis fashion themselves the protectors of Sunni Islam, though it’s a particularly oppressive, evangelical form of extreme Sunni’ism called Salafism, unrelenting in its desire to impose its unyielding strictures on moderate Islam. Oddly, ISIS is a Salafist sect, too. Same with al-Qaeda … and Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia and Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pakistan — and others.

You should know, as well, that the Saudi government is exceedingly oppressive at home and maintains domestic peace through a heavy hand and heavy social spending. America’s intelligence community recognizes that because of this, there is an existential threat to the Saudi government’s continued existence … and it recognizes that the Saudi kingdom, either through government or business or individuals, is the pocketbook behind a lot of the Salafism violence that exists in the world.

So strange that America’s (supposed) friend is the ATM to many of the world’s terrorist organizations. Stranger still is that we know this and, overtly at least, do little about it.

But how convenient would it be for America to covertly foment strife among Salafist Sunnis? It might ultimately destabilize Saudi Arabia and send oil prices roaring higher, to the great benefit of the American government, though like the 1970s oil embargo it would certainly hurt the American consumer in the short run. It would also give America the political and military cover it needs to wedge itself deeper into the Middle East under the premise that it must render aide to a friendly government, the Saudis.

And in the end, America’s own band of lunatic extremists — the militant neoconservatives — will have accomplished their goal of remaking yet another piece of the Middle East in what they perceive as a more favorable fashion.

Like I said, probably just conspiracy theory. Then again, Iran-Contra, C.I.A drug running and the U.S. government’s systemic cyber-spying on citizens and foreign leaders was once conspiracy theory too.

Until next time, stay Sovereign …

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker

Follow me on Twitter @JeffSovereign

P.S. America’s lunatics may be driving the country toward more turmoil and strife, but there are ample opportunities overseas in which you can invest safely. EverBank recently launched their new three-year MarketSafe® BRICS CD, offering exposure to the currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. What’s more, your initial investment is 100% guaranteed safe while you take advantage of the potential growth of these developing economies. For more information, click here.

For the sake of full disclosure, The Sovereign Society receives a marketing fee based on our relationship with EverBank. But, honestly, we’d work with them regardless.

http://sovereignsociety.com/everbank/everbank_rev092014.html

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R.I.P Rubles shine on Yuan:  (How I love an alliterative turn of phrase)

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/article/2014/09/30/chinese-real-estate-boston/

Amazing really - Boston's economy has grown by over 11% in the past year and the flood of Mainland China Bux is a significant contributor ...  amazing takeaways - Primary Rule - Never ask how they make their money or where they live - discretion is paramount - and China now consists of approx 25% of the worlds Billionaires - just 3 short years ago the Forbes Billionaires list was only 39 in China - now over 325 and growing...  likely under-counted as the Chinese themselves are keen NOT to draw attention from the central committee apparatchik grafters. 

Russia rides the Ruble ruination road - only bright horizon is they Chniese will buy all the natural resources Chairman Vlad is willing to sell them - along with India to bid up the price as much as possible in the face of ignorant EU UK USA sanctions which will hasten the demise of the USA Petro Dollar.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-rouble-spirals-lower-c-090655482.html

The rouble has lost around 18 percent against the dollar this year, and the central bank has spent more than $40 billion in interventions, the bulk of which came in March when the Ukraine crisis escalated.

The central bank said early on Friday it had shifted the boundaries of its floating rouble corridor 15 kopecks higher to 36.00-45.00 against a dollar-euro basket as of Oct. 9 and had spent $1.5 billion in interventions on Wednesday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/russia-s-currency-interventions-cross-3-billion-as-oil-slides.html?cmpid=yhoo

and

http://mythfighter.com/2014/10/01/europes-slow-painful-death-is-it-murder-or-suicide/

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Recent email regarding a Fed Induced Meltdown to Come circa Sept 2008 but on steroids...

The Ghost of 2008 is Lurking About
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Profit Seeker

Dear Sovereign Investor,

Looking around the world today, here’s what I see: developed — and emerging — market stocks are in decline; currencies are tumbling in value; gold and silver are headed south; oil has plunged; foreign bond prices are falling.

The only asset moving up in value is our dollar.

It’s 2008 all over again, when, in the wake of the U.S.-inspired global financial crisis, every asset class in the world tumbled relative to the dollar. That proved a temporary state of affairs … and this time around will prove no different.

Therein lies a huge opportunity for investors today …

Commentators I’ve heard in recent weeks have all ascribed the weakness in our stock market to slowing global growth tied specifically to Europe and China. But that makes no sense in light of recent history. To wit:

2009: Global GDP fell 2.1%. U.S. GDP fell 2.8%. The S&P 500 rose nearly 24%.
2010: Global and U.S. GDP were up 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively. The S&P rose nearly 13%.
2011: Global and U.S. GDP were up 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively. The S&P was flat.
2012: Global and U.S. GDP were up 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. The S&P was up more than 13%.
2013: Global and U.S. GDP were up 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The S&P was up nearly 30%.
In the latest update to its (usually wrong, but for whatever reason followed) global forecast, the International Monetary Fund now expects global growth at 3.3% in 2014, while the U.S. grows at 2.2%. China and Europe will record positive growth, too. Meanwhile, global growth in 2015 is projected to run slightly higher.

So, the world and the U.S. economies are growing at a pace that falls within the range they’ve been growing at for the last four years … and those four years witnessed decent to spectacular returns in the S&P. Why, then, would expected GDP growth rates for 2014 suddenly cause markets to drop now? The “slowing global growth” and “blame China and Europe” analysis is pure bunk.

The real problem in the market has bupkus to do with global growth.

It has everything to do with the Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act

We are just days away from the Fed ending its long-running, market-manipulation campaign know as Quantitative Easing (QE). After that, it’s a wait-and-see game as investors try to prognosticate when the Fed will announce its first interest-rate hike, the size of the rate increase and how long the rate-raising cycle will last. Until the market has a sense of the future role the Fed will play, investors are living in fear of the Gordian Knot that Janet Yellen and her crew of Fed governors now face.

See, the Fed has a problem: It talked itself into a corner over the past year, telling the markets it would end QE in October 2014 and then begin raising interest rates shortly thereafter. But the Fed of Summer 2013 had no way to predict that by October 2014 a Russia/Ukraine crisis would have radically altered the European economic landscape with tit-for-tat sanctions between Russia and the European Union.

Though ultimately temporary, those sanctions have kneecapped the all-too-crucial German economy, in particular. Now the euro zone is struggling, which is leading EU monetary leaders to push interest rates to the floor and to flood the zone with ever-more currency … even as the Fed must now begin to raise rates. That situation puts upward pressure on our dollar. And higher rates here are already drawing money out of Europe and into the U.S.

Ultimately, that’s not so good for the U.S. because a strong dollar will necessarily weaken our exports, which will undermine the economy, sending joblessness back toward 7%, maybe higher.

So, markets around the world are in a mild panic and are clearing the decks because they’re worried the Fed won’t find a way to balance its promise to raise interest rates, while not encouraging an even stronger dollar. And having read the minutes from the Fed’s September conclave, one glaring worry is clear: Fed governors are worried that the dollar is getting too strong!

An Effective New Strategy

But there is an answer — a temporary fix that will quell the market’s upset, buy a lot of time for the Fed, and see fallen assets reverse course as the dollar’s rise halts. This is that answer:

The Fed will announce an interest-rate increase sooner than most commentators expect, possibly in December or early in the first quarter of 2015.
The hike will be just 0.1%.
The Fed will pair the hike with language that says rates will continue to rise, as necessary, over an extended period of time.
And then rates won’t move again for more than a year … or, if they do, they’ll be the same 0.1% increments every several months.
Such a strategy offers numerous benefits:

The Fed lives up to its dual promises of stopping QE and raising rates, which it must do or risk losing credibility with global investors.
It ends talk of “when will the Fed act,” rather than dragging out the market’s constant worry into the second quarter of the year.
Europe gains time to fix the Russia/Ukraine problem, which would then help jump-start the European economy, thereby easing the immediate pain on the ECB, the euro and those off-base perceptions of a slowing world economy.
The strong-dollar trend moderates, even weakens a bit as investors instantly realize the Fed is not stepping out of the game but, instead, has found a way to extend its excessively easy-money policy.
Stock markets globally strengthen, which improves business and consumer sentiment, which heats up the global economy.
And, finally, it keeps interest rates lower for longer on America’s exorbitant debt … because as rates rise, so, too, does the cost of servicing that $17 trillion debt that Congresses have accumulated for us. Rates that go too high — and “too high” isn’t far away — risk sending America into a debt-spiral that would destroy the dollar’s credibility globally.
For investors, then, we’re approaching an inflection point.

The dollar has been moving higher only because investors, in the absence of direction, are trying to get ahead of the risks that the Fed represents right now to the global financial system. But once the Fed acts, investors will see that Yellen & Co. won’t change the script the world has known for the last half decade … and we will be off to the races once again.

Until next time, stay Sovereign …

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker

P.S. While the Fed walks a shaky tightrope during the next several years, trying to do its part to keep the U.S. from tumbling into financial chaos, it certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea to make your own preparations to protect your assets and your freedom. Bob Bauman recently released the newest edition of The Passport Book. This 1,000-page tome provides in-depth research on getting a second passport and protecting your assets offshore.

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Recent Sovereign Society Email Newsletter (No link so posted full text)

Why Putin is Stirring up Fear and Anger
By Jocelynn Smith, Managing Editor

Dear Sovereign Investor,

Putin can smell blood in the water and he’s determined to carve out his chunk of power while the West is weak.

While much of the western world was still trying to crawl free of the Great Recession, Russia moved in and swallowed up Crimea. He continues to chip away at Ukraine, with 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and 30 trucks carrying ammunition and men crossing into Ukraine from Russia this week, according to Kiev military.

Russia continues to deny that it is arming the rebels, but the cease-fire deal reached in the Belarussian capital, Minsk, now looks in tatters. Tensions in the region are rising, while Moscow’s relations with the West have sunk to their lowest ebb since the Cold War.

Adding insult to injury, the Russian president has now publicly revised his opinion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, which he condemned as “immoral” just five short years ago. His comments are certain to stoke anger and fear in Eastern Europe.

The 1939 Nazi-Soviet pact included secret protocols to divvy up Poland, Romania, Finland and the Baltic states between the Third Reich and the Soviet Union. The Kremlin denied the existence of the secret agreement until 1989.

Nonetheless, after the pact was signed, Russia invaded Poland and the Baltic States. He also blamed Britain for Hitler’s march through Europe.

“Serious research would show those were the methods of foreign policy then,” Putin said to historians in regards to the pact. Not surprisingly, Poland and the Baltic states are pressuring NATO for more protection.

Sure, the West slapped sanctions on Russia for its aggression, but Putin has shrugged them off and spearheaded deals with China that will strengthen Russia’s financial position and undermine the petrodollar.

Not only has Putin locked in oil pipeline deals with the Middle Kingdom, but he is close to expanding a natural gas pipeline deal that was reached in May. The original $400 billion deal would create the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, delivering 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to China annually. A second western route, the Altai, is now being discussed. It would link western China and Russia, supplying 30 bcm of natural gas per year.

With Putin keeping the world on its toes with his steady stream of lucrative deals and aggressive actions, I was excited to receive a copy of Marin Katusa’s new book, The Colder War. The book takes an interesting look at how Putin is rebuilding the Russian empire by controlling key natural resources. Katusa contends that the Russian president’s ultimate goal is the death of the petrodollar and the subsequent end of American global economic power. I’m planning to dive into the book this weekend while finally stealing some time to relax on the beach. For more information on The Colder War, click here.

Putin’s actions are reprehensible, but they prove an important point: The West — particularly the United States — is not the only game in town. Places such as China and Myanmar are growing and spending more money as its citizens become wealthier and demand more goods.

The world is constantly changing, and at The Sovereign Society, we are looking for opportunities to keep you one step ahead.

Regards,
 

Jocelynn Smith
Managing Editor, Sovereign Investor Daily

P.S. If you missed any of last week’s Sovereign ideas, here are some of our commentaries:

3 Keys to Investing in a Bull Market
The increased volatility in the market has left many investors scrambling to find not only the best way to protect their gains, but also struggling to figure out where to look for the next strong investment. Chad Shoop, editor of Pure Income, gives you three key criteria you need to use when finding stocks to add to your portfolio over the long term. To read the full story, click here.

Ron Paul says you should read this new book
Getting a “yes” out of Ron Paul isn’t easy. During his 22 years in Congress, he made a career out of saying “no.” He famously turned down every lobbyist who came knocking. He even refused Ronald Reagan. But Casey Research got a big “yes” when Dr. Paul endorsed the eye-opening new book, The Colder War. “The Colder War provides a reversing contrast message emanating from the neocon think tanks and the mainstream media… [it] shows the real threat to the American people.” This book clicks with Ron Paul because he’s been warning about the consequences of America's foreign policy blunders for decades. And as you’ll discover in the pages of The Colder War, they are coming home to roost. Click here to get your copy right now.

The Next Revolution in Emerging Markets
While growth in America stagnates — or at best, inches along — there are markets around the globe that are seeing consumer demand skyrocket. Large groups of people have more wealth now than ever before, and they are looking to acquire the same luxuries that we enjoy. Jeff Opdyke, editor of Profit Seeker, talks about a discovery he made while traveling in Asia that could turn into big gains for investors. Click here to learn more about this booming sector.

The Secret to Living a More Satisfying Life
If you’ve ever wondered how some people live life under the radar with enough money to do what they want, when they want … while the majority of Americans live in fear about what some ham-fisted politician will pull next, and whether the U.S. dollar or the entire financial “system” will suffer a catastrophic collapse. I’m going to let you in on their secret. Details here …

Republicans, Democrats: Who Cares? America as a Single-Party State
The midterm elections are over and the Republicans have swept in to take control of both the House and Senate. Is this a good time for Americans? Ted Baumann, Offshore and Asset Protection editor, discusses what changes Americans can expect during the near term with this shift in power and what steps you can take to protect yourself. To read more, click here.

Rare Event Triggers Massive Profit Opportunity
Megatrends don't come around every day. But when they do, they transform industries — and nations — virtually overnight. I just returned from an 8,782-mile trip that took me to ground zero of perhaps the biggest megatrend of the next decade. I'll give you the full, lucrative story here.

The New Economic Hunting Ground: Tax Report Reveals Startling Secret That Affects You
The tax burden is shifting in the United States and the IRS has its eye on the little guy to fill the gap. More corporations have begun setting up in such a way that they are able to file under the personal tax system rather than the corporate tax system. Knowing that they are missing out on the big payday from corporation in terms of taxes, the IRS will likely come down harder on personal taxes. But you’re not without options. Ted Baumann looks at how you can protect yourself from any additional tax burden. To read the full story, click here.

The Sovereign Investor Daily
55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200
Delray Beach, FL 33483

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Very interesting info since the more money a company can retain from taxes the more money they can spend on innovation and productivity...

http://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/11/21/39-countries-reduced-taxes-business-corporate/

Dateline: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

I read a recent headline here that suggested that while some Malaysians are concerned about the country’s ongoing lowering of tax rates on individuals and businesses, most realize it is a way to bring more business to an increasingly competitive Asian economy.

Other countries, of course, are not so interested in reducing taxes, whether it is good for the country or not.

Later this month, Swiss voters will head to the polls to vote on a referendum that would end the “forfait” tax: essentially a negotiated flat tax based on living expenses, not on income, of those who live but don’t work in Switzerland.

The Swiss cantons of Vaud, Valais, Geneva, and Ticino all allow French and other foreigners to live there and enjoy a low tax bill under the premise that the presence of more wealthy people creates economic benefits besides tax.

Considering the downfall of Switzerland, it was only a matter of time before someone was bound to make it a big issue.

Meanwhile politicians in the Land of the Free are so upset that tax rates aren’t low enough that they are actually trying to stop US companies from moving their operations overseas.

Politicians like Chuck Schumer have gotten so butthurt over both individuals like Eduardo Saverin and companies deciding US tax rates were too high and going elsewhere.

We always discuss how the countries that think they are entitled to continually extort more money out of you are the countries whose long-term fate is not good. It doesn’t matter whether politicians wish it was still 1812 and there were no opportunities in the global economy. The truth is companies can and should go where they are treated best.

The United States, for instance, has the highest corporate tax rate in the world.
 
It doesn’t matter that some companies use a network of Double Irish Dutch Sandwiches to park their capital overseas. Not only have the US and the EU successfully shut down a number of tax shelters including the Double Irish, but those shelters are largely unavailable to millions of companies that don’t control intellectual property or have global operations.

Rather than encouraging new business to set up shop in the United States, US politicians are too busy demonizing Apple and turning the public against “big business”. They practice a defensive, not an offensive strategy, and are much more concerned with saddling their tax slaves – US companies they figure can’t leave – rather than attracting new business that would generate revenues.

So I did a little research and found 39 countries that have lowered their tax rates on business in order to attract more investment. All in just the last few years. The list includes countries one might derisively label as “communist”, “socialist”, “backward”, or “run by warlords”.

They all have one thing in common…

1. Belarus. The last remaining bastion of sympathy for the old Soviet Union, Belarus has reduced taxes from 24% to 18%.

2. Botswana. One of the most developed and promising economies in Africa recently reduced taxes from 25% to 22%.

3. Brazil. Brazil has its fair share of problems, no doubt, but the country reduced its headline corporate tax rate from 34% to 25% this year.

4. Canada. While corporate tax rates increases by a fraction of a percent this year, the country has overseen five drops in its corporate tax rate in the last decade as the country becomes more open for business than The Land of the Free to the south.

5. Colombia. The second freest economy in South America has similarly reduced taxes several times over the last decade, going from 33% to 25% two years ago. Colombia remains, in my opinion, one of the world’s underrated gems for investment and low cost of living.

6. Czech Republic. A favorite of the start-up scene in Europe, the Czech government reduced taxes to their low rate (by EU standards) of 19% several years ago.

7. Denmark. Perhaps the most socialist and most politically correct country on earth, Denmark may be an extremely expensive place to live (think $15 for a small beer) but tax rates continue to decline, down this year to 24.5%.

8. Ecuador. The South American country lowered corporate taxes by 1% a year until reaching the current rate of 22%.

9. Estonia. Estonia’s tax rate declining to its current 21% rate several years ago. However, Estonia has the unique benefit of only taxing distributions, allowing company owners to accumulate business capital tax-free until they take money out of the company.

10. Fiji. Corporate taxes have gone from 31% to 20% in this island nation, which remains a favorite of some frontier market investors.

11. Germany. Leave it to the Germans to churn out tax rates as complicated as 38.34% and 29.58%, but that is the starting and ending rate for corporate income over the last decade.

12. Gibraltar. While this rock at the southern tip of Spain remains a tax-free jurisdiction for international business companies, companies doing business in Gibraltar have seen their tax bill slashed from 35% to an amazing 10%.

13. Guatemala. While part of Guatemala deserves its bad rap, cities such as Antigua are unfairly targeted. Tax rates are down 3% to 28% as of this year.

14. Honduras. In addition to nascent special economic zones, Honduras lowered tax rates to a mediocre 30% this year, down from 35%.

15. Hong Kong. One of my favorite places to set up a legitimate “offshore” company, Hong Kong companies now benefit from a slight reduction in taxes down to 16.5%. Of course, companies that don’t have any actual business in Hong Kong can pay zero tax thanks to the country’s territorial tax policy.

16. Indonesia. This southeast Asian country may have a disastrous currency, but it remains an emerging real estate hub for some frontier investors, and benefits from recently lowered tax rates, now down to 25%.

17. Jamaica. Call the place a mess propped up only by tourism; the Jamaican government lowered corporate rates from 33.33% to 25%.

18. Japan. One of the world’s most indebted, easy money nations, Japan lowered tax rates to 35.64% after spending years at the top of the charts.

19. Jordan. The Middle Eastern nation nearly halved its tax rate from 25% to a low 14%. Seems fitting considering Dubai is a zero-tax jurisdiction and is the world’s easiest country to pay taxes for those that do owe a little something.

20. Kuwait. Not that long ago, the tiny Middle Eastern nation lowered taxes from 55% to an astonishing 15%.

21. Libya. While paying taxes probably isn’t the top priority in Tripoli these days, the country did half their corporate tax rate a few years back.

22. Macedonia. This small nation is one of a few breakaway states from the old Yugoslavia competing to lower taxes. Macedonia tax rates are down to a low, flat 10% rate.

23. Malaysia. I’m a big fan of Malaysia, and while the country isn’t a tax haven for local businesses, they are continuing to reduce corporate tax rates a little bit at a time. The rate is currently 25% and set to decrease again. Malaysia is also home to Labuan, one of the world’s least known tax havens that comes with all the benefits of Malaysia.

24. Netherlands. Rates in this high-tax European country are down a few points, where they now stand around 25%.

25. Norway. The very socially conscious, “for the greater good” Scandinavian country lowered tax rates one point to 27% this year.

26. Panama. Anyone with no business in Panama can set up an offshore company in Panama and avail themselves of zero tax. For those doing local business on the ground, tax rates are down 5% to 25%.

27. Portugal. The PIIGS country held off on reducing tax rates, but came through and lowered corporate taxes to 23% this year, down almost 5% over the last decade.

28. Russia. In addition to a low flat 13% personal income tax rate, “evil Russia” has reduced its corporate rate to 20%.

29. Singapore. A popular onshore/offshore jurisdiction, Singapore has lowered its headline tax rate from 20% down to 17% in recent years. For those who run a small business with six-figure revenues, tax exemptions and write-offs can get that rate darn close to zero.

30. Slovenia. Nestled next to Italy, this European Union member has systematically reduced taxes from 25% to Singapore’s headline level of 17%.

31. South Africa. One of the world’s largest gold producers has its fair share of issues, but tax rates are down from levels that once rivaled the United States to a mediocre 28%.

32. Sri Lanka. The South Asian country lowered its corporate rate from 35% to 28%.

33. Sweden. Think Sweden is a bastion of ubersocialism? They may love to celebrate big government, but their tax rates are down to 22% – almost half the level that US corporations pay at the highest level.

34. Switzerland. While rates are partially determined by the local cantons, Swiss tax rates are down to below 18%.

35. Syria. It may be on every watch list, but the Syrians saw fit to lower taxes from 28% to 22%.

36. Ukraine. Rates in the troubled country have dropped from 25% to 21% to 19% to their current level of 18% this year.

37. United Kingdom. While the UK may be experiencing a dramatic decline in personal freedom as privacy-invading cameras now seem to dot every square inch of the place, but London did manage to usher in five tax decreases in the last decade, with the top rate now sitting at a mere 21%.

38. Vietnam. The socialist republic has dropped corporate tax rates from 28% to 22% in recent years.

39. Yemen. Tax rates in this Arab nation have dropped from 35% to only 20%.
 

 I started Nomad Capitalist to help entrepreneurs and investors like you use legal offshore strategies to grow and protect their wealth. Perhaps like you, I was tired of the outdated information from nameless, faceless people. So after spending years learning and visiting 25+ countries a year, I created my own "Blueprint" for international diversification. It's yours when you join my community... 100% free.

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Why the Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates in 2015

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

Latest eblast...

Alexander Green U.S. short-term interest rates have stayed near zero for six years.

 But if there's one thing investment analysts of all stripes can agree on now, it's that the Fed will start gradually raising rates in 2015.

 I wouldn't be so sure.

 Yes, the Fed announced the end of its quantitative easing program in October. But it also said it would not raise interest rates for "a considerable time." It also said future rate changes would be "data dependent."

 Translation? The central bank wants to see what happens with consumer prices. In particular, it wants to keep inflation under 2%.

 That shouldn't be a problem. The current rate is only 1.7%. And even that should soon come down. Why?

 For starters, the U.S. is about the only healthy horse in the race among developed nations. Europe is stagnant. Japan is back in recession. Even China is struggling with slower growth.

 Weak global demand keeps a lid on inflationary pressures.

 So does a stronger dollar. The greenback is up 10% since May and recently hit a five-year high against the euro and a nine-year high against the yen.

 That makes imports cheaper in dollar terms. And makes it tougher for domestic companies to raise prices. Score one for consumers... and for inflation hawks.


The Oil Patch

 Then we have the recent trouble in the energy sector. Since mid-June the price of Brent crude has plunged more than 30%, from $116 a barrel to a five-year low of $67.50 on Monday.

 This is bad news for oil exploration and production companies. But it is good news for almost everyone else: chemical companies, manufacturers, auto retailers, transportation companies, most other businesses and virtually all consumers.

 Lower oil prices translate into lower petrol prices at the pump. (And lower heating bills in some places.) Consumers then take that extra discretionary income to the mall and stimulate the economy.

 So let's do a quick summary. The global economy is soft. Commodity prices are down. The dollar is up. Wage pressures are almost nonexistent. And inflation is MIA.

 So why would the Fed start raising rates? Just for the hell of it?

 The world's central banks want to do everything in their power to get national economies revved up before tamping on the brakes.

 And with all these disinflationary pressures at work, the Fed may leave interest rates alone through all of 2015... fooling the guessers once again.

 This is good news, of course, for the stock market. Low interest rates make it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow. It also makes cash and bonds unattractive relative to stocks.

 Moreover, one of the oldest saws on Wall Street is "Don't Fight the Fed." History shows that bull markets often end within six months of the first interest rate hike.

 So if you're long equities, you want an accommodative Fed. And that's exactly what we have.

 Good investing,

 Alex

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My favorite domestic and international investing newsletters are Motley Fool, Oxford Club, Sovereign Society and the newer Nomand Capitalist - younger fresh prospective evaluates dozens of international markets by actually visiting them and almost nevers gives any info away -

Free Webinar:

This Monday, Jim Rickards and I will be hosting a free, one-time-only live webinar where he will share "never heard before" predictions inspired by his bestselling books Currency Wars and The Death of Money.
 
This webinar is free to join but only has 200 seats, so please register here before you forget:
 
http://nomad.sx/ rickardswebinar
 
This is your chance to be one of only a few people to learn from Jim Rickards personally... for free. You'll discover his best strategies for currencies, gold, and investments in 2015, so you can make sure your money is safe from a monetary collapse.
 
This webinar will not be repeated and we are not planning on offering a replay, so please register now:
 
http://nomad.sx/ rickardswebinar
 
Again, much of what you'll hear is brand new information and will not be repeated. If you are interested in hearing what this bestselling author and prescient economist has to say, please reserve your seat now.
 
See you there.
 
Yours in freedom and prosperity,
Andrew

Nomad Capitalist Limited
Suite C 2/F
39-43 Hollywood Rd
Central Hong Kong
Hong Kong
(236) 237-0001

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EOY News Letter from the Sovereign Investor looking ahead at 2015:

Crosscurrents Threaten to Sink Stocks
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Profit Seeker

Sent 12/29/2014...

We’ve reached that point when, every year, the prognosticators, pundits, crystal-ball gazers and the doyens of Ouija-board expertise peer into the new year and, almost always, predict blue skies ahead.

Recent weeks have brought an overload of just such exuberance for 2015. I’ve read or heard commentators calling for another great year in stocks, for all sorts of reasons ranging from the blowout (and laughably manipulated) GDP data that showed shockingly fast 5% growth, to Federal Reserve policies that will propel the markets even higher.

Where we really end up when December 2015 concludes, who knows? Up sharply? Down marginally? Flat? Whatever the ultimate destination, I will say this: 2015 promises to be a very volatile year for investors. If you don’t expect the volatility that’s coming, the downdrafts in 2015 will scare you out of the market.

But, if you expect the roller coaster ride — and the opportunities to go shopping with Wall Street on sale — then you will see 2015 as a year of opportunity.

Opportunity always grows out of market instability and fear … and there are three events now causing substantial crosscurrents that will ripple (or rip) through 2015. They are: U.S. interest rates, Russian sanctions and oil prices — and each promises to impose its will on global financial markets in the new year.

The Fed

It’s no exaggeration to say that the world is captivated by our Federal Reserve. When will Yellen & Co. announce the first interest-rate increase? How much will rates rise? What language will the Fed use in explaining future rate increases? Each of those answers will impact the market, and possibly in contradictory ways.

Maybe the monetary arbiters surprise us on interest rates, but disappoint on the language they use. Maybe they use the right language, but announce their first rate hike at what the market thinks is the wrong time.

If the Fed increases by 0.1% — which I think is possible but which no commentator expects — the markets would likely explode higher with giddiness that the free-money-for-everyone-policy is effectively unchanged (the dollar would move lower and foreign stock markets would boom).

But if summer comes and goes and the Fed has yet to act — a shock to everyone — then markets the world over will crumble in a conniption fit over the Fed’s broken promises to act. Or if the Fed raises rates sooner than expected, but in line with the expected 0.25% increase, well maybe that’s good, maybe it’s bad.

Whatever the case, and whenever the increase, the recipe the Fed ultimately constructs means volatility in the market, either up or down, and possibly violent in either direction.

Oil

What game the Saudis — and OPEC in general — are playing is unclear. Are the Arabic Saudis aiming to cripple their mortal enemies, the Persians of Iran? Are the Saudis aiming to hurt the oil-dependent Russians, for whom the Saudis have no lost love? Are they aiming to bankrupt high-cost U.S. shale producers who have screwed up the supply/demand balance in the world?

All of the above?

The answer is ultimately irrelevant. The dynamics of the oil patch (oil is getting more and more expensive to find and produce) and the economics of OPEC nations including Saudi Arabia (they ALL need dramatically higher prices to afford the social-spending priorities in their budget) means oil prices are destined to go higher at some point.

Maybe OPEC cuts production to force prices higher when the pain in local budgets is too great. Maybe low oil prices — which are already shutting in production in the U.S. and seeing drilling rigs mothballed — cuts U.S. production so dramatically that even if OPEC never slows its own wells, daily global production tumbles below daily demand … once again forcing prices higher.

Those are the two likeliest options. One will emerge the winner. And either means volatility in the stock market, because those betting against oil prices will rush to cover themselves as losses mount.

And in the meantime, if oil prices continue to slide, that will create its own volatility. Low oil prices are just as detrimental to the global economy as high prices. Low prices create unemployment and reduce capital spending in the oil patch, and lead to social instability in certain countries and declining government revenues.

So, no matter the direction of oil, we’re looking at volatile stock markets.

Russia

The U.S., UK, Europe and Russia all over-played their hands in the tussle over Ukraine.

Russia is now on the brink of a currency collapse that would rip through the economy … and it would rip through Europe, which is already struggling because of Russian sanctions and which, despite the U.S. press missing the real story, is none too happy with Washington’s heavy-handed insistence that European leaders toe the anti-Moscow line that D.C. has established.

In 2015, we have just two scenarios:

Either Russia, Europe and the U.S. come to amicable terms (and that will likely be because of Europe’s insistence that Washington finally butt out) … or the UK, Europeans and Americans make a massive miscalculation and allow Russia to collapse.

Both outcomes create volatility around the world, including in the U.S.

An amicable solution means sanctions end and European stocks rally hard while the U.S. rallies a bit on sympathy.

If Russia collapses, stocks get crushed in a quick sell-off that will be tied to a Russian bond default that ripples through European investment firms that own Russian debt. The resulting economic crisis in Europe will be so intense that even the European Central Bank cannot alleviate it with its money-printing policies. That will ultimately hurt U.S. markets because of the backlash, and it will destroy emerging markets such as Asia, Brazil and Mexico because of the guilt-by-association that always happens in the emerging markets when one country defaults.

That’s lots of volatility — up or down — regardless of what comes in Russia.

2015 = Volatility

These crosscurrents mean we’re all going to be fighting through a lot of noise in the stock markets in 2015. Unlike much of the noise I routinely warn you to ignore, this noise will be meaningful and have direct impacts on investor sentiment.

So be prepared.

All of these events are ultimately transitory. They will flare up and scare investors, which will send prices tumbling and have the media wringing its hands. But each will be a great opportunity to buy stocks on sale, particularly in Europe, Russia and Asia. Those are the markets today with the greatest potential to give you outsized gains in the year ahead.

Until next time, stay Sovereign…

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker

[NS1]

And here I thought I survived the Global Chaos of 2014 with only a few days left.
Now your saying its going to continue,
you need to have the 2014 removed from the title 

[Manny]

In 2015, we have just two scenarios:

Either Russia, Europe and the U.S. come to amicable terms (and that will likely be because of Europe’s insistence that Washington finally butt out) … or the UK, Europeans and Americans make a massive miscalculation and allow Russia to collapse.

Both outcomes create volatility around the world, including in the U.S.

Almost, but not quite. As I just said on another topic:

In June [I think its June, might be July], when the EU sanctions expire, they will not be renewed [As it will need 27 states agreement to do it and that wont happen], and America will be on its own with what will be then toothless sanctions. The EU has no desire for war with Russia or for admitting Ukraine to the EU. Come June-August, after the election here and when sanctions this side of the pond expire, EU and US interests will diverge. Polish farmers will once again be able to sell their apples, the Finns fish, and the French their warships. Ukraine will be quietly carved up - ignored by the media - and the Rouble will regain most of its value. Normality will resume and America will find a shiny new country full of blokes on camels to bomb that Russia doesn't support.

Oil price will be a factor on America's economy in 2015 as he says, because the American shale production methods are expensive and oil would ideally be higher for USA Inc to make big bucks on oil.

I think once the Russian crisis is over, the gradual move away from the dollar abroad will continue, led by Russia and China. Russia is a diversion. I think the world sees that the far-reaching claws of the US must be trimmed a little and they be encouraged to concentrate more on the US and what is happening there than keep meddling abroad.

On the upside, the lower oil price has had effects here. We have very high petrol[gasoline]/diesel prices compared to the US. And the slump in oil price has brought prices down. I think I paid about £20 less the last few times to fill up my car. To some families, £10 or £20 here and there makes a difference. Our media claims this puts more in peoples pockets, so they spend it elsewhere and it drips down beneficially through the economy. 

[2tallbill]

I think once the Russian crisis is over, the gradual move away from the dollar abroad will continue, led by Russia and China.

Manny, I realize that you have been hypnotized into some kind of Russian love trance.
It's cool, I understand. I get stars in my eyes when I look at my wife too.

USA is by far China's largest trading partner with $521 Billion in trade.
USA is also UK's largest trading partner.
USA is also Canada's largest trading partner
USA is Germany's second largest trading partner
USA is Mexico's largest trading partner
USA is India's third largest trading partner
USA is Australia's third largest trading partner
USA is Brazil's second largest trading partner

Does anybody see a trend here?
China has $59 billion in trade with Russia which is more than
10% of the US China trade. Oh yeah China is going to throw
the USA under the bus for all that good Russian trade 

Can anybody explain it to Manny?
$59 Billion vs $521 Billion

Can anybody tell Manny which number is bigger?
Can anybody tell Manny which number is more important?
Can anybody tell Manny which country doesn't get thrown under the bus?

Let's imagine that the USA and China had a trade war. What would happen to China?
What would happen to the USA?

[Donhollio]

 Bill when you refuse to pay for TV, you watch lots of streaming RT TV I guess.   

[Manny]

I think once the Russian crisis is over, the gradual move away from the dollar abroad will continue, led by Russia and China.

Manny, I realize that you have been hypnotized into some kind of Russian love trance.
It's cool, I understand. I get stars in my eyes when I look at my wife too.

USA is by far China's largest trading partner with $521 Billion in trade.
USA is also UK's largest trading partner.
USA is also Canada's largest trading partner
USA is Germany's second largest trading partner
USA is Mexico's largest trading partner
USA is India's third largest trading partner
USA is Australia's third largest trading partner
USA is Brazil's second largest trading partner

Does anybody see a trend here?
China has $59 billion in trade with Russia which is more than
10% of the US China trade. Oh yeah China is going to throw
the USA under the bus for all that good Russian trade 

Can anybody explain it to Manny?
$59 Billion vs $521 Billion

Can anybody tell Manny which number is bigger?
Can anybody tell Manny which number is more important?
Can anybody tell Manny which country doesn't get thrown under the bus?

Let's imagine that the USA and China had a trade war. What would happen to China?
What would happen to the USA?

You guys think the world will be the same forever. I get that. For you lot, it is still 1979 and JR is going to the Oil Barons Ball. 

Since then, you aggressively invaded the Muslim world, and now Russia, your currency was exposed as a ponzi scheme and China owned all your debt and started buying Manhattan hotels like Monopoly. 

For sure, party like its 1999. Coz the ponzi dollar on the back of constant wars is only getting stronger, right? 

Fighting Russia and manipulating the oil price is only a band aid. The chickens will come home to roost and we will see the US manufactures almost nothing the world buys, and is a service economy built on debt, lawsuits, McDonalds and continual war.

Bill, you blokes still imagine that you still matter in the world more than Belgium. As they say in Russia, we are seeing the "sunset on America". Yes, you will go down fighting......

[cufflinks]

Manny just like the sun has not set on the British Empire - Buckingham Palace has wisely substituted a global colonial empire with a global financial risk management empire of which the USA is a very profitable component that supports most of the vaunted British social safety nets...  as I have pointed out many times before the UK gets preferential treatment and BAE and BP are two of the largest investors in the USA - UK and USA are tied to the hip economically.

Furthermore the USA national debt is an illusion and at worse a misnomer in the era of Monetary Sovereignty, Modern Monetary Theory and Modern Electronic Money Systems.

I have shared this inconvenient economic truth more than a few times and yet your anti Americanism and Russophile loyalties blind you or perhaps you have just become intellectually somnolent.

[GriffinCO]

I think once the Russian crisis is over, the gradual move away from the dollar abroad will continue, led by Russia and China.

Manny, I realize that you have been hypnotized into some kind of Russian love trance.
It's cool, I understand. I get stars in my eyes when I look at my wife too.

USA is by far China's largest trading partner with $521 Billion in trade.
USA is also UK's largest trading partner.
USA is also Canada's largest trading partner
USA is Germany's second largest trading partner
USA is Mexico's largest trading partner
USA is India's third largest trading partner
USA is Australia's third largest trading partner
USA is Brazil's second largest trading partner

Does anybody see a trend here?
China has $59 billion in trade with Russia which is more than
10% of the US China trade. Oh yeah China is going to throw
the USA under the bus for all that good Russian trade 

Can anybody explain it to Manny?
$59 Billion vs $521 Billion

Can anybody tell Manny which number is bigger?
Can anybody tell Manny which number is more important?
Can anybody tell Manny which country doesn't get thrown under the bus?

Let's imagine that the USA and China had a trade war. What would happen to China?
What would happen to the USA?

You guys think the world will be the same forever. I get that. For you lot, it is still 1979 and JR is going to the Oil Barons Ball. 

Since then, you aggressively invaded the Muslim world, and now Russia, your currency was exposed as a ponzi scheme and China owned all your debt and started buying Manhattan hotels like Monopoly. 

For sure, party like its 1999. Coz the ponzi dollar on the back of constant wars is only getting stronger, right? 

Fighting Russia and manipulating the oil price is only a band aid. The chickens will come home to roost and we will see the US manufactures almost nothing the world buys, and is a service economy built on debt, lawsuits, McDonalds and continual war.

Bill, you blokes still imagine that you still matter in the world more than Belgium. As they say in Russia, we are seeing the "sunset on America". Yes, you will go down fighting......

I don't think you undestand the effect geography has on economics.  The United States will be an economic superpower for years and years to come, debt or no debt.  Here are 3 reasons why:

1.  Cheap transportation infrastructure
The US has the best real estate in the world for navigable rivers AND highway systems.  It is cheap, quick and efficient to transport goods.  This isn't going away.  Now look at Russia and it's transportation infrastructure.  No such luck.

2.  Largest swath of arable land in the world (for growing food)
It has 40% more arable land than Russia and 70% more than China.  Can produce a lot of it's own food.  In fact it's a big exporter of food.  Russia is 3rd largest, but transportation infrastructure makes it MUCH less efficient to move and it's swath of arable land has shrunk considerably.  China is 4th largest but still has to import food.  USA has become known as China's grocery store.

3.  Superior global position for defense/national security
There are no neighbors that threaten the United States and it has 2 gigantic oceans providing buffers with Europe and Asia.  It can easily project power, but is incredibly difficult to threaten.  This gives it great latitude for defense spending and use of resources to contain/cajole/bribe its neighbors.  Same can't be said of Russia...or China.

There are more reasons like energy independence and our ability to assimilate cultures and hard-working citizens from other countries.

Russia is a big country...and will always have a place on the world stage.  And America by virtue of geography alone will be a rich country for years and years to come.  It will continue to be a main driver of the global economy because of it.

[cufflinks]

You can judge a man or country by its enemies ...  Seems Putin's hatred of the USA is steeped in an extreme case of racism:

Russians Rage Against America

Enduring Sanctions, Anger Turns to Hate: Racist Names for Obama and Putin Disses Coca-Cola

http://observer.com/2014/12/russians-rage-against-america/#ixzz3NLtQxqvy

By Mikhail Klikushin | 12/29/14 1:17pm
ST. PETERSBURG—Relations between Russia and the US have sunk to new lows. President Putin, shown here hosting President Obama last September, has even expressed his disdain for Coca-Cola.

(Photo by Ramil Sitdikov/Host Photo Agency via Getty Images)

ST. PETERSBURG—Relations between Russia and the US have sunk to new lows. President Putin, shown here hosting President Obama last September, has even expressed his disdain for Coca-Cola. (Photo by Ramil Sitdikov/Host Photo Agency via Getty Images)

If you talk to a Russian about the international political situation, sooner or later you will be informed that there is a country in North America that you’ve never heard of. Its name is ‘Pindosia,’ ‘Pindostan’ or, more officially, ‘United States of Pindostan,’ and you will be told that one part of it, called Alaska, used to belong to Russia. Part of the word—‘stan’—stands for underdeveloped state, as in ‘ Pakistan,’ ‘Kazakhstan,’ or ‘Uzbekistan.’ The citizens of this country in plural form are called ‘pindoses,’ in singular—‘pindos.’

There are more than 316 million ‘pindoses’ in ‘Pindostan.’

Today, this country has a black President, and the Russians have a nickname for him too. He is called Maximka—after a character from a popular Soviet movie, made in 1952, which told the story of a black boy saved by the Russian sailors from the cruelty of the vicious American slave-traders who were terribly abusing him and calling him just that—“Boy.” In the film, the saved boy was fed well by the Russian crew, given the name Maximka, and became one of their own in the end.

But by the modern-day Russian legend, Maximka, unfortunately, has grown up into an ungrateful Russophobe.

One can assume that the reader by now has a clue what this country is.

The word ‘pindos’ in Russian is highly offensive, and defines a helpless creature that is a product of a very bad educational system, one who can survive in this world only with the help of various gadgets. The origin of the word is unknown, and the philologists are fighting to establish it. The most popular explanation states that this word was invented by Russian peacekeepers in Serbia with the purpose of describing a NATO soldier, who was seen by them as a strange, clumsy figure with his 90 lbs. of bulletproof vest, weapons, radios, flashlights and so on.

Russians have taken to calling President Obama "Maximka" after a character from a popular 1952 Soviet movie, which depicted a black boy saved by Russian sailors.
Russians have taken to calling President Obama “Maximka” after a character from a popular 1952 Soviet movie, which depicted a black boy saved by Russian sailors.

From afar, he looked very strange to the Russian eye—like a penguin.

The Russians have had their favorite, most-hated pindoses. One of them, the constant laughingstock in the media, used to be the US Ambassador to Moscow, Michael McFaul. He was a huge fan of Twitter and if judged by the number of his tweets, spent more time on his gadget than actually doing his job. After more than two years of service there, upon his departure, he received only two words in Russian—via Twitter—from the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs: “Goodbye Mikhail.”

Today his place has been taken by the spokesperson for the US Department of State, Jen Psaki. She has an anti-fan club of haters who consider her not to be very bright—they even invented their own anti-IQ unit called 1 Psaki. One who has 3 Psakis has a brain of a clam. The term ‘psaking’ in Russian political newspeak means to know nothing about the subject while saying something banal and politically correct. She is so popular that when she injured her foot and came in front of the cameras with the cast on, all major Russian TV channels and newspapers reported the event.

Another hated ‘pindos’ is Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), famous in Russia for his periodic tweets to ‘Dear Vlad.’ In 2011, for example, Mr. McCain tweeted Putin, “Dear Vlad, The #ArabSpring is coming to a neighborhood near you.” Usually reserved and purposefully polite while talking about his ‘partners from over the Big Pool’ (Big Pool being the Atlantic Ocean ), this time Mr. Putin shot back, saying that Mr. McCain “has a lot of blood of peaceful civilians on his hands. He must relish and can’t live without the disgusting, repulsive scenes of the killing of Gadhafi.” “Mr. McCain was captured in Vietnam and they kept him not just in prison, but in a pit for several years,” Mr. Putin added. “Anyone [in his place] would have had his roof moved over.” The last three words in Russian slang mean “suddenly to become insane.”

Today, according to the respected Moscow ‘Levada Center,’ which measures political sentiment in Russian society, 74% of Russians have negative feelings towards the USA. It hasn’t always been like this; in the 1990s, 80% had positive attitude toward America.

Currently, 76% of Russians hate Obama personally and only a meager 2% like him. In 2009 only 12% of Russians had extremely negative feelings towards Obama.

These are the maximum peaks of anti-American feelings in Russia in years but the sociologists believe they could go even higher in the near future.

State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki, pictured here on May 6, 2014 in Washington, DC.,  has seen her surname turned into a synonym for idiocy. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki, pictured here on May 6, 2014 in Washington, DC., has seen her surname turned into a synonym for idiocy. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Anti-American sentiment has been growing slowly in Russia since the war in former Yugoslavia. But the sharp recent increase happened as a result of the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after the ‘Russian annexation of Crimea.’ For example, just last week Visa and MasterCard completely stopped their operations in Crimea, leaving more than 2 million people there without access to their money. 75% of Russians do not believe that their country is responsible for the events in Ukraine. On the contrary, they blame the US.

When the sanctions began, many Russian businesses responded by putting up ‘Obama Is Sanctioned Here’ signs on their doors and windows.

However today they went much farther.

The owners of the Moscow supermarket “Electronics on Presnya” are using American flag doormats so the customers could wipe their dirty feet off, according to the British tabloid Daily Mail. “Customers have been filmed wiping their feet on the fabled stars and stripes as they enter and exit stores across Moscow, as struggling retailers take a hopeless swipe at their Cold War adversaries,” reports the newspaper. According to the Moskovky Komsomolets Moscow newspaper, the nation’s business owners decided to put the US flag under the Russians’ feet because of the strained relations between the two countries. “New doormats with the American flag were put at every exit so that America would not think that she is allowed to everything,” they say.  “From one perspective, of course it is a flag, but from the other, because of this entire situation in the world, regular folks are suffering. All the electronics we import, mostly from China and buy for dollars. We have to work directly so the US would have no chance to manipulate the prices.” (The Russian ruble lost about 50% of its value because of the economic sanctions by the western countries and a fall in the oil price.)

By the words of the shopping center’s attorney Konstantin Trapaidze, the doormats with the American flag do not break any Russian law. “It is very probable that the doormats have a decorative character. Yes, people are walking on them but nobody prohibited this. They produce not only doormats with the flag on them but also furniture upholstery. The breaking of the law would be when someone would start burning such a doormat or real flag demonstratively, or tear it up.”

Major Russian TV channel Vesti eagerly reported that fact. They also added that some Moscow stores were selling the toilet paper with American flag imprinted on it. The pricetag was $1 per roll.

Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul was considered a lightweight who spent more time on Twitter than on actual diplomacy. (YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images)
Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul was considered a lightweight who spent more time on Twitter than on actual diplomacy. (YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images)

A number of Russian politicians have been working very hard to keep the flames of rage burning. Last week, the Speaker of the Russian Parliament, Sergei Naryshkin, raised the issue of starting an international investigation of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings by the US in 1945, as a ‘crime against humanity’ has no time limit. He wanted nothing less than a new Nuremberg trial with the US at the criminal’s bench.

Vladimir Putin, from his side, during his most recent press conference, used the occasion to show his negative attitude toward one of America ’s most popular products. Answering a question about Russian drink Kvass, he said, “I don’t know how harmful Coca-Cola is, but a lot of specialists say that it is, especially for children. I don’t want to offend Coca-Cola, but we have our own national non-alcoholic beverages, and we shall help them to win our stores’ shelves.”

He could have chosen another brand as an example of an unhealthy soda, since there is no shortage of different drinks in Russia’s stores. But to no one’s surprise, the Russian President chose for his attack the very symbol of Pindostan.

Read more at http://observer.com/2014/12/russians-rage-against-america/#ixzz3NLtQxqvy
Follow us: @newyorkobserver on Twitter | newyorkobserver on Facebook

[Donhollio]

 


  I like the US as my neighbour, they know shit about us, but that's ok. I'm far enough from the border that I don't have to worry about some good ole boys with their 500 round machine gun, spraying rouge bullets while trying to take the cap off a Coors bottle.   

 Having Russia as a neighbour isn't quite so good. Putin regularly buffs his chest to intimidate Canada. Putin sees it as normal behaviour I suppose, to proper thinking nations its annoying, and leave him and Russia isolated, just like those glory days of the CCCP.  I'm sure the masses yearn for a return to those days.
 
 

1.  Cheap transportation infrastructure
The US has the best real estate in the world for navigable rivers AND highway systems.  It is cheap, quick and efficient to transport goods.  This isn't going away. 

  You got that right!  I ordered a product that is 50'' long about 18''H and 18''W weighing 45lbs from the east coast. It's costing $20 to have it shipped to the border where I'll pick it up. If I had to ship it the same distance in Canada it would be more than the cost of the unit.
 

[2tallbill]

You guys think the world will be the same forever. I get that. For you lot, it is still 1979 and JR is going to the Oil Barons Ball. 

Since then, you aggressively invaded the Muslim world, and now Russia, your currency was exposed as a ponzi scheme and China owned all your debt and started buying Manhattan hotels like Monopoly. 

For sure, party like its 1999. Coz the ponzi dollar on the back of constant wars is only getting stronger, right? 

Fighting Russia and manipulating the oil price is only a band aid. The chickens will come home to roost and we will see the US manufactures almost nothing the world buys, and is a service economy built on debt, lawsuits, McDonalds and continual war.

Bill, you blokes still imagine that you still matter in the world more than Belgium. As they say in Russia, we are seeing the "sunset on America". Yes, you will go down fighting......

You seriously think Obama or some other US magician manipulated the price of oil
downward? or the US invaded Russia?

While I agree that the USA has a multitude of serious problems and they need to be
dealt with right away and rushing all over the globe to get involved in every conflict
certainly doesn't help.
 
A balanced budget amendment for example would solve most of our fiscal
problems. In 2014 the US Government received $1,934,919,000,000 in tax
revenue. Having a budget of the same would fix the Ponzi scheme.

Tort reform, regulation reform and tax reform would fix many of the other problems.
The USA can fix it's problems if it has good leadership in place. Obviously Obama is
not the guy.

You seriously underestimate the USA. The USA has vast national resources  a well
developed infrastructure and a very high productivity rate. The US manufacturing
is about $2 trillion per year exceeding that of Germany, Korea, Italy, India, Brazil
and Russia combined.

Only China has more manufacturing production than the USA.

Does the USA have serious problems? Sure we do
Are they insurmountable? No they aren't

Brussels? They are talking about expanding and adding Turkey and others to the
EU. How many countries can Germany and the UK prop up without breaking?

Lastly, my original point was that China (which you didn't even slightly address) isn't
going to toss their largest customer under the bus for Russia a customer a bit over
10% of it's size. They couldn't, even if they wanted to.

[Slumba]

Since then, you aggressively invaded the Muslim world, and now Russia, your currency was exposed as a ponzi scheme and China owned all your debt and started buying Manhattan hotels like Monopoly. 

For sure, party like its 1999. Coz the ponzi dollar on the back of constant wars is only getting stronger, right? 

Manny, you show some ignorance here. 

Yes, the USD is a ponzi scheme. 

So is the Yuan/renminbi, the ruble the grivna, the pound and the euro. 

In fact, all fiat currencies that are not directly redeemable in some physical good/commodity such as gold or silver, are ponzi schemes.

You are like a player on a football team, making snide comments about the sort of people who play football professionally.  Reflexively un-aware.

The Japanese were buying all the USA T-bills and Manhattan hotels like Monopoly back in the 1980s, remember?  Same song different verse.

The "deal" is simple (I don't like it, don't approve of it):  whoever is large enough to be a superpower, gets to have their currency be the reserve currency of the world.

But because they are the superpower, they also have to be the policeman of the world - thus, their kids are the ones to die in far-off lands, they are the ones with the outsized military budget, etc.

If you are familiar with pre-WWII history you might remember something about a currency called the pound or sterling, sun never sets on the Empire, etc. etc.

War is likely coming, and unlikely to be stopped.

[Manny]

But because they are the superpower, they also have to be the policeman of the world

I disagree with that bit.

sun never sets on the Empire, etc. etc.

Yes, history repeats itself.

War is likely coming, and unlikely to be stopped.

And it is you lot who will start it as usual. Sooner or later, someone will hit back hard in a way you didn't expect. It may be Russia or someone else.

[Manny]

The US manufacturing
is about $2 trillion per year exceeding that of Germany, Korea, Italy, India, Brazil
and Russia combined.

What are all these things you manufacture? When I was in the US I had a hard time buying "made in the USA", everything was made in China or Mexico.

And why do Americans not on the whole buy their own cars?