Buying Gold to hedge against inflation

[Maxx]

For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -

Yup, China just sold a load if gold, I believe.

Nope, they revealed they have far less gold holdings than what people believed they have. However some believe it is a lie to keep the price low so they can buy more.

[andrewfi]

It would seem that forcing the price down was the objective - selling was done at a time when the market would not have been very liquid and a very large number of trades were made in a very short space of time, less than 3 minutes with the main fall happening within one minute.

That suggests a political motive to me.

Price has already risen again, although more in Euros and Pounds than in dollars but the significant point is who will be doing the buying at the moment.

This is a short term manipulation to gain a particular effect which will make somebody a shit tonne of money but be motivated by a political goal.

[Texan77]

I believe the global economy is slowly contracting make the price of most commodes to drift lower. The price of gold may become quite a bit lower before a bottom is hit. I think then it would be a huge buying opportunity as most countries are way over extended and will likely ruin the value of their currency trying to fix this deflation. We are likely over then next few years get an economy ride to remember where most people in most countries will end up with less than they enjoy now. Think 2008 where no governments has any bailout money left. Not Russia, Not China, Not any body in Europe and not the USA. 

[Dogsoldier]

For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -

Yup, China just sold a load if gold, I believe.

Nope, they revealed they have far less gold holdings than what people believed they have. However some believe it is a lie to keep the price low so they can buy more.

Yes, China did reveal this but there was a big sell of on Monday causing the price to fall by 4%.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/markets-precious-idINKCN0PU04220150720

[cufflinks]

Tuesday, July 28th 2015 Noon NYC time:

Crude Oil 47.74 +0.74%  Gold 1,093.90 -0.23%  EUR/USD 1.1049  Copper 2.40 +2.02%  Silver 14.64 +0.21%

Wasn't the around $1.40 a year or so ago?

But things still not rosy in US Real Estate even with record low mortgage rates.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homeownership dropped to a record low in the second quarter as more Americans opted to rent, data showed on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted home ownership rate fell to 63.5 percent, the lowest since the government started tracking the series, the Commerce Department said. The rate, which peaked at 69.4 percent in 2004, was 63.8 percent in the first quarter.

The residential rental vacancy rate fell to 6.8 percent, the lowest level since 1985, from 7.1 percent in the first quarter.

Chinese securities markets collapsing down largest drop 8.5% since 2007 yesterday and another 1.6% today so naturally they are trying to capture some value in their vast Gold reserves to offset losses in the securities markets.

[cufflinks]

Last Best Balding Brilliant Brit on Gold V Fiat post covid interviewed by RT's Max Keiser:

[Contrarian]

US currency devaluation coming soon? World economic crash coming soon?

https://canadianpatriot.org/2020/10/26/what-the-great-reset-architects-dont-want-you-to-understand-about-economics/

[Texan77]

Gold is likely getting near a bottom now. With the world wide money printing I expect gold will do well over the coming months. Gold has been correcting from recent gains and though it is possible it could still go lower it appears to me to be putting in a bottom.

Just so everyone understand that economic collapse usually sends the price of gold lower as you can not do anything with it. You can not drive, eat it or live in it. Gold does well in inflation, low interest rates, and large scale money printing.

I am expecting to be a buyer soon.   

[Wiz]

Gold is likely getting near a bottom now. With the world wide money printing I expect gold will do well over the coming months. Gold has been correcting from recent gains and though it is possible it could still go lower it appears to me to be putting in a bottom.

Just so everyone understand that economic collapse usually sends the price of gold lower as you can not do anything with it. You can not drive, eat it or live in it. Gold does well in inflation, low interest rates, and large scale money printing.

I am expecting to be a buyer soon. 

So you will be following Russia's example to save your assets!

Not long, now to go, for the Fiat currency to crash... and bring down your American "exceptionalism" Empire. Shame that too many people will be heard and too many will starve!

You cannot eat gold but you can exchange it for food! Putin has been very clever with his strategy.... spending all dollars Russia has been collecting from Oil and Gas sales and bought too many tones of Gold! Rubble is not a Fiat currency any more!

Crash of the Dollar? Is the US Dollar Doomed?

According to Bloomberg, "The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end"

The US Dollar is in trouble. Many of us in the alternative media and several economists who were ignored by the mainstream media and others saw this coming many years ago. The mainstream media is now listening, in this case Bloomberg News in an opinion piece written by Stephen Roach, ‘A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming’ gives the reader something to think about. What is surprising is what Mr. Roach said in the beginning of his piece, “the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism.” A truth to consider given the fact that the world sees Washington’s double standards when it comes to geopolitics, economics and free trade.  Roach says that the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” is over:

Read MORE here: https://www.globalresearch.ca/mainstream-media-warning-us-dollar-doomed/5715764

 

[d672]

 Nov 7th, 2010... that was the day I joined RUA

 Nov 7th, 2010... the first time I heard that the US dollar was about to crash here

 Nov 21st 2020... still waiting for that crash

 

[Texan77]

Wiz all things go up and down.  d672 In 2010 the price of gold was about a thousand dollars now it is about twice that. Gold goes up in waves and it is nice to try to pick the next wave.  I think we are close to the next wave up not the end of the world. Actually I am a big believer in the long term out look for the USA.

[AvHdB]

Wiz, The doom of the US dollar has been anticipated and predicted for a long time. BUT LIKE SEX IT IS ONLY A REALITY WHEN IT HAPPENS!

Yes there are forces some external but mostly internal that may very well bring 'down' the dollar. There are some today cheering and hoping for the demise of the dollar, I consider them seriously challenged. This scenario is a nightmare. Long ago on RUA I noted the greatest danger and perhaps most lethal weapon the United States posses is its debt. That has not changed. In fact D. Trump has done a marvelous job at increasing its power.

My guess as the poem reads it will end not with a bang but rather a whimper.

[Wiz]

Wiz all things go up and down.  d672 In 2010 the price of gold was about a thousand dollars now it is about twice that. Gold goes up in waves and it is nice to try to pick the next wave.  I think we are close to the next wave up not the end of the world. Actually I am a big believer in the long term out look for the USA.

That is a revelation to me! I am a person who knows nothing about finances......

Obviously you missed the point made ........ about the Gold standard!

Your economy is based on wars and debt! China is producing most of your products..... soon China will buy most of your manufacturing .......and other profitable parts of the USA.

As of 31 August 2020 the Federal debt held by the public was $20.83 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.88 trillion, for a total national debt of $26.70 trillion.

Wiz, The doom of the US dollar has been anticipated and predicted for a long time. BUT LIKE SEX IT IS ONLY A REALITY WHEN IT HAPPENS!

Yes there are forces some external but mostly internal that may very well bring 'down' the dollar. There are some today cheering and hoping for the demise of the dollar, I consider them seriously challenged. This scenario is a nightmare. Long ago on RUA I noted the greatest danger and perhaps most lethal weapon the United States posses is its debt. That has not changed. In fact D. Trump has done a marvelous job at increasing its power.

My guess as the poem reads it will end not with a bang but rather a whimper.

AvHdb

Firstly we have to wait for you to decide who will be your next President and then we can talk...... about your comments.

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September,  since hitting a historic record of 14.7% in April, the labour department announced on Friday, in the last snapshot of the jobs market ahead of the presidential election.

Take a read at: A Brief History of U.S. Debt
https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

Still dreaming about sex?

Sorry I forgot a Greek saying ...... that a hungry person always dream about food and bread!

 

[AvHdB]

AvHdb

Firstly we have to wait for you to decide who will be your next President and then we can talk...... about your comments.

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September,  since hitting a historic record of 14.7% in April, the labour department announced on Friday, in the last snapshot of the jobs market ahead of the presidential election.

Take a read at: A Brief History of U.S. Debt
https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

Still dreaming about sex?

Sorry I forgot a Greek saying ...... that a hungry person always dream about food and bread!

 

Sorry to disappoint you. We have nothing to decide or influence on who will be the next president in the United States. There is a dance card and our names are not on it.

The reality is that the CORONA infection rates are rapidly rising both in the United States and across a broad number of nations. Allot hope is being pinned upon a future vaccine but it is still an unknown today.

Be safe, be merry, be careful!

[Texan77]

Actually the next president will likely not change things as much as people think when it comes to the price of gold. The price of gold is likely to rise until the next financial crisis where it will likely fall again. This is a chart of the price of gold in dollars and it shows that gold could break out after a long pull back. There is no guarantee in the markets but this sure looks like a good set up to me.   

[Texan77]

What this guy is saying that somewhere around 2022 the world economy will likely far apart and stay that way for over ten years being something like the great depression of the 1930's. I can tell you it will not be just a USA problem but a global problem. The reason the worlds economy does not grow much is world wide there are too many old people in all the developed countries. Countries not just this one are borrowing money to keep from going into a depression and soon that debt will become unstainable. This virus we are having is causing the debt to go up faster than anyone thought and it will likely continue to be a problem until at least next summer.  With countries facing having so many retired people and medical cost on top the the great debt it is likely to not be good. This is not like anything any of us have seen in our life time.

For those of you that have followed our long term charts through the years, you would remember that we had an ideal target for the 4th wave within the 5-wave rally off the 2009 lows in the 2200 region (which we clearly struck in March of 2020 when we spiked down to the 2192SPX low), with expectations that we would then rally over the 4000 region to complete the 5th wave off the 2009 lows, with strong potential to rally as high as the 6000 region.

Now, before you review my monthly chart, I want to highlight Garrett’s 100+ year wave count, which should you give a much better perspective as to how we have arrived at our wave count, which also supports the monthly chart I have been publishing for years.   This should provide everyone with an appropriate larger degree perspective and it is why I have continually disagreed with any other attempts at wave counts which have significantly diverged from the primary count presented on his chart.  As you can see, we have accounted for all the waves since the mid-1800’s, which supports our conclusion that we are completing a final 5th wave (off the 4th wave low struck in 2009) within a larger degree 3rd wave begun in the early 1930’s.

This also explains why, after we complete this final 5th wave, our primary expectation is that we have strong potential for a multi-decade 4th wave of the same wave degree as the 2nd wave which ushered in the Great Depression.  And, since the 2nd wave decline which ushered in the Great Depression was a relatively fast decline, the theory of alternation supports our expectation for a long, drawn out 4th wave which can take several decades to complete.
 
As we have now laid out the larger degree context for our long-term wave count, we can move into the “smaller degree” time frame within my monthly chart.  You will see that, as we move toward 2021, the market is preparing to embark upon the wave [iii] within the final 5th wave off the 2000 lows.  And, this has been our focus over the last several months.

The question with which we have recently been struggling is when does that wave [iii] take hold in earnest?  Now, to be honest, if the market had provided us with a standard pullback in wave [ii], I probably would not be questioning where we currently reside.  But, since the market only retraced .236 of the rally off the March lows, it certainly has made me question if that is all of the wave [ii] we see.

Due to the shallow pullback we have seen thus far, I still retain some potential for the market to strike our ideal target region for an appropriate wave [ii] in the 3050SPX region.  This structure is presented in purple on the attached 60-minute chart, but, for now, only as an alternative.  While it aligns quite well with the larger degree corrective structure I have been tracking in the NQ, I really do not see strong evidence of such a 5-wave potential decline in the SPX.  So, I still can only view this potential as a higher probability if we see an impulsive decline below 3330SPX, which I have reiterated many times over the past several weeks.

Now, as we move into the smaller degree perspective, it would seem that the most reasonable wave count is that wave [2] of wave [iii] is currently taking shape.  And, again, we have only seen a very shallow retracement thus far.

Lastly, while I rarely discuss timing within my analysis, I do want to revisit something I published almost two years ago on this issue. While I will not rely upon timing as a primary perspective, I can view Fibonacci relationships for timing perspectives as an ancillary support.  So, as I have noted the 2022/23 timing for a potential top for this bull market off the 2009 lows, I wanted to again explain why.
Since the market bottomed in 2009, I was considering a Fibonacci 13 year time frame from the bottom struck in 2009 as the potential target time frame for a top to this 5 wave structure off the 2009 lows.  Moreover, late 2021 is 34 years from bottom of the correction in October of 1987, as well as 89 years from 1932 bottom in the market.

Now, when you consider that these Fibonacci timing cycles often have a margin of error of 1-2 years, we have some very interesting confluence for a major market top between the years 2022-23.   Again, while this is nothing I would primarily trade upon, it does provide for a nice confluence of Fibonacci timing for a rally which currently seems to project out to late 2022 or into 2023 in order to complete this 5th wave off the 2009 lows.

[Wiz]

Texan

This text is definitely not yours and you forgot to post the source of the article.

When in the past I forgot to give the source... may I remind you all the attacks and comments I received over here!

If I had done the same , like you did, everybody, especially the Master of the Board,  will jump on my throat.... while I am trying to make a sensible conversation.
Never mind.... Will have to read your post later, as for now I must prepare myself, because I am waiting for my granddaughters to arrive for lunch!

 

[Dogsoldier]

Texan

This text is definitely not yours and you forgot to post the source of the article.

When in the past I forgot to give the source... may I remind you all the attacks and comments I received over here!

If I had done the same , like you did, everybody, especially the Master of the Board,  will jump on my throat.... while I am trying to make a sensible conversation.
Never mind.... Will have to read your post later, as for now I must prepare myself, because I am waiting for my granddaughters to arrive for lunch!

 

Hey Wiz, Tex doesn’t do wholesale copy and paste like you.

[Texan77]

The article I posted is a paid subscription and is not available to the public and it is why I did not give the source. The other information not in the article is in Peter Zeihan where he shows debt to GDP ratios are passed a critical point. When a country passes being more in debt than about 95 per cent of GDP it does not usually recover with out a lot of pain. The USA as well as most of the developed world has passed this point. The USA I believe is about a 110 per cent of GDP but the with the virus it is rising fast and we should be way past this point in a few years. Actually when lower our GDP to take in a count the virus it maybe much worse already.

What Peter shows the GDP/debt ratio become a problem at the same time when the number of workers is no longer able to support the number of retired people which he claims will be around 2023. This will occur about the time the USA and the rest of the developed world will get its credit card cancelled. Who will want to buy bonds from a country who can not afford to pay the interest. From what I have seen 2023 will be about the time the stock market will crash and 2026 will be about when economy will stop working for most people. In 1929 the stock market crashed and 1932 is when the depression was really bad.  The stock market is ahead of the economy by about six months and it just takes a couple of years for the economy to reach the bottom.

So what I have is two independent sources coming up with the same conclusion and deriving it in total different ways.

It is a global problem. The USA will not be immune neither will Europe or China. China had a one child policy and has a aging population worse than most developed countries. It is more indebt than most other developed countries and it export dependent. It will not be a fun place to be in 2026 unless you are bride shopping. 

[Wiz]

[snip]

On the other hand.....is well known fact that the USA Empire will not last as long as the British one did! USA is still under the Control of the British Banksters of the CITY OF LONDON ....... and the plans for the 21st Century are not working as you would expect without constant wars .......to move your economy!

REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES

http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf

[snip]

[Texan77]

This subscription only deals with market directions. It is not any type of news paper and does not publish any news only it mathematical based belief of probability of market direction. It is saying late 2022 to 2023 is the most likely time the current bull market in almost everything will end. Most of the stuff is market stuff that they projection will happen next week to next month. It is not always right. They project the bull market will continue soon. Wiz you find it extremely boring.

[Contrarian]

Let's resurrect this thread. All of the "quantitive easing" (printing money which we don't have) is resulting in real world inflation on food, gasoline and other stuff.

It would not take much for our economy to quickly get into drastically worse shape.

Purchasing a little bit of gold is a good way to hedge against inflation.

Here is the spot price today. Gold has gone up quite a bit since Biden's weak jobs report came out in April. In fact the price of Gold went up by $20 an ounce on that day alone.


https://www.apmex.com/gold-price/today

https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price

[Contrarian]

Can someone else with more financial experience than myself please comment on this article? Cuffy? Andrew? Thanks.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-new-global-monetary-order-threatens-the-dollar-62029.html

[Contrarian]

up up and away!

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

[andrewfi]

I have some thoughts about the article, I'll try to write a note tomorrow.