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USA and China Sanctions

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Faux Pas:

--- Quote from: Manny on April 09, 2025, 05:40:56 AM ---
I think Trump is doing what Trump does here. Like a US lawyer who sues for a million dollars knowing he will end up with a $50k settlement. He'll do some bellyaching and throwing his weight around, but later calm down and do a deal. Maybe not so fast with China, but that's not going to affect tech that much, I think. It seems he is not informed on how the Chinese think. All this nonsense of deadlines and phone calls, etc., just won't wash with them. They can afford to ride it out, the US needs its Chinese stuff more I'd say.

--- End quote ---

I'd have to disagree with you to a point. Trump is doing what Trump does sure enough. The first of which is establishing the negotiating parameters for each country that has in the past, had different trade imbalance nuances. China is the bigger elephant in the room and he's going to go in with the likelihood that China gets cut off from the US market completely.

Like it or not the US is the richest and most lucrative market in the world and everybody wants a piece of it. China for years has painlessly enjoyed the biggest part of it for a very long time. Trump is convinced they will pay for it going forward if it takes the complete emasculation of China before he opens the negotiations. I think Trump is prepared to shut China out completely if necessary.

That will hurt both the US and China but, likely China much more

Manny:
I just asked GPT for the numbers:


--- Quote ---%u200BIn 2023, China exported approximately $3.42 trillion worth of goods globally, with exports to the United States totaling about $501.22 billion. This means that around 14.7% of China's total exports were destined for the U.S. %u200B

Conversely, the United States imported goods valued at approximately $3.2 trillion in 2022, with imports from China accounting for $536.3 billion, representing about 16.5% of total U.S. goods imports.

%u200BIn 2023, China imported approximately $165.16 billion worth of goods from the United States. Given that China's total imports for that year were around $2.7 trillion, U.S. imports constituted about 6.1% of China's overall imports.%u200B

Conversely, the United States exported approximately $147.78 billion in goods to China in 2023. With total U.S. exports amounting to about $2.1 trillion that year, exports to China represented roughly 7% of the United States' total exports.

--- End quote ---

I think both could live without it if necessary. The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

Bodine:
China is at a huge disadvantage if they persist to wage a trade war. They have massive frozen supplies and their domestic economy is already at an unfavorable level. Any stagnation in export will result in 15-20 unemployment.

Then you have the SE Asian region clamoring to strike a deal with the US, notably India, who is shutting out BYD and is actively courting Tesla to invest in India.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma5UY9h1_Aw
China had broken so many WTO trading rules including the dump trade behavior they’ve executed with countries like Vietnam, Mexico, etc.

Bodine:
Speaking of Tesla it was unbelievable to see Tesla was at $218.00/share last week.  :biggrin:

Elon just recently stated that he’s standing behind his declaration that Tesla, upon release of his FSD and Optimus, that 2026 will be epic and 2027 will be ridiculous!!

If Tesla Indian ventures become a success then he's got most marketable regions covered.

Texan77:

--- Quote from: Manny on April 09, 2025, 07:23:52 AM ---
The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.


--- End quote ---

One of Trumps biggest faults knowing what you just wrote would be the reason that he would do just that. Now the only country with new Tariffs to import to the USA is China. Everyone else's have been delayed.  At the moment no seem to care if the Tariffs on China's products ever goes away or not. Stock market big rebound today.

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