USA and China Sanctions

[Faux Pas]

I think Trump is doing what Trump does here. Like a US lawyer who sues for a million dollars knowing he will end up with a $50k settlement. He'll do some bellyaching and throwing his weight around, but later calm down and do a deal. Maybe not so fast with China, but that's not going to affect tech that much, I think. It seems he is not informed on how the Chinese think. All this nonsense of deadlines and phone calls, etc., just won't wash with them. They can afford to ride it out, the US needs its Chinese stuff more I'd say.

I'd have to disagree with you to a point. Trump is doing what Trump does sure enough. The first of which is establishing the negotiating parameters for each country that has in the past, had different trade imbalance nuances. China is the bigger elephant in the room and he's going to go in with the likelihood that China gets cut off from the US market completely.

Like it or not the US is the richest and most lucrative market in the world and everybody wants a piece of it. China for years has painlessly enjoyed the biggest part of it for a very long time. Trump is convinced they will pay for it going forward if it takes the complete emasculation of China before he opens the negotiations. I think Trump is prepared to shut China out completely if necessary.

That will hurt both the US and China but, likely China much more

[Manny]

I just asked GPT for the numbers:

%u200BIn 2023, China exported approximately $3.42 trillion worth of goods globally, with exports to the United States totaling about $501.22 billion. This means that around 14.7% of China's total exports were destined for the U.S. %u200B

Conversely, the United States imported goods valued at approximately $3.2 trillion in 2022, with imports from China accounting for $536.3 billion, representing about 16.5% of total U.S. goods imports.

%u200BIn 2023, China imported approximately $165.16 billion worth of goods from the United States. Given that China's total imports for that year were around $2.7 trillion, U.S. imports constituted about 6.1% of China's overall imports.%u200B

Conversely, the United States exported approximately $147.78 billion in goods to China in 2023. With total U.S. exports amounting to about $2.1 trillion that year, exports to China represented roughly 7% of the United States' total exports.

I think both could live without it if necessary. The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

[Bodine]

China is at a huge disadvantage if they persist to wage a trade war. They have massive frozen supplies and their domestic economy is already at an unfavorable level. Any stagnation in export will result in 15-20 unemployment.

Then you have the SE Asian region clamoring to strike a deal with the US, notably India, who is shutting out BYD and is actively courting Tesla to invest in India.

China had broken so many WTO trading rules including the dump trade behavior they’ve executed with countries like Vietnam, Mexico, etc.

[Bodine]

Speaking of Tesla it was unbelievable to see Tesla was at $218.00/share last week. 

Elon just recently stated that he’s standing behind his declaration that Tesla, upon release of his FSD and Optimus, that 2026 will be epic and 2027 will be ridiculous!!

If Tesla Indian ventures become a success then he's got most marketable regions covered.

[Texan77]

The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

One of Trumps biggest faults knowing what you just wrote would be the reason that he would do just that. Now the only country with new Tariffs to import to the USA is China. Everyone else's have been delayed.  At the moment no seem to care if the Tariffs on China's products ever goes away or not. Stock market big rebound today.

[Texan77]

About how China is perceived here.

The “Shark Tank” host specifically pointed to China while appearing on CNN and stated the current tariffs on China are not high enough. O’Leary suggested that “104% tariffs on China are not enough” and that Trump should crank up the number by a couple hundred more percent.

“I’m advocating 400%,” he said. “I do business in China. They don’t play by the rules. They’ve been in the WTO for decades. They have never abided by any of the rules they agreed to when they came in, for decades. They cheat, they steal, they steal IP, I can’t litigate in their courts. They take product technology, they steal it, they manufacture it and sell it back here.”

[andrewfi]

Don't worry, Texan77. The USA has successfully created an embargo on Chinese imports, so there is no need to increase taxes on domestic consumer spending or U.S. manufacturers any further.

[Texan77]

Apple had allocated funds before this to build a plant to make phones in the USA. For now, they are going to be allowed to reship from India for lower tariff. So, it appears anything really important will still get thru. Just for now Chinese consumer products will cost us a lot more. US farmers will have to get a lower price for some crops. Trump needed to make a "deal" with Canada and Mexico before he started all of this.

[Texan77]

The fallout from the end of Chinese and USA trade. Probably not going to return any time soon.

[2tallbill]

I think both could live without it if necessary. The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

Do you think that Mr. & Mrs. Chinese Sixpack (or Rice bowl if you want)
read/listen what negative crapola Trump says about China? I don't. They
censor such things. China isn't as open as Russia, not by a long shot.

[andrewfi]

I think both could live without it if necessary. The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

Do you think that Mr. & Mrs. Chinese Sixpack (or Rice bowl if you want)
read/listen what negative crapola Trump says about China? I don't. They
censor such things. China isn't as open as Russia, not by a long shot.

You're back to front there, sport! Give it some thought, and you will get it. But to help you on your way:

Chinese state media doesn't censor negative statements about China by President Trump or his administration. Instead, they often highlight such remarks to portray the U.S. as an aggressor and to rally domestic support. This strategy frames external criticism as unjustified attacks, reinforcing nationalistic sentiments and justifying the Chinese government's policies.​

For instance, in response to U.S. tariffs, Chinese state media produced AI-generated videos mocking the measures, depicting them as harmful to American consumers and the global economy. Additionally, state media have drawn parallels between current trade tensions and historical conflicts, emphasizing narratives of foreign oppression to bolster national unity. ​

By amplifying negative statements from U.S. officials, Chinese media aims to shift blame for economic or political challenges onto external forces, particularly the U.S., thereby strengthening domestic cohesion and support for the government's stance.

They might censor some stuff, just as in the U.S., but not this kind of thing, this is lapped up and enjoyed!

[2tallbill]

You're back to front there, sport! Give it some thought, and you will get it. But to help you on your way:

Chinese state media doesn't censor negative statements about China by President Trump or his administration. Instead, they often highlight such remarks to portray the U.S. as an aggressor and to rally domestic support. This strategy frames external criticism as unjustified attacks, reinforcing nationalistic sentiments and justifying the Chinese government's policies.​

We are such familiar pals that you've nicknamed me sport?

So lets look at it from the side Manny subscribed to. Trump unwittingly put 
China in a tough spot publicly so that China can't compromise without publicly
losing face? Because China would allow their citizens to know that they lost a
nonpublic back room negotiation with Team Trump? China has control of what
is news in China. 

They can exploit this in many ways showing both the hostile evil Capitalist
West and their magnanimity and superior negotiation/political skills in one
fell swoop. Two or three birds one stone.

It doesn't matter what Trump says, the Chinese news won't report anything in
anyway that doesn't benefit the communist party. They won't feel trapped in
some way that the lose face. Or do you even understand how tightly controlled  communist regimes even work champ?

[andrewfi]

Ah, the classic move. Reframe the discussion to avoid acknowledging that your original claim was incorrect. You're now arguing a broader truism about media control, which nobody disputed. The point was that China doesn't suppress Trump’s insults-they amplify them. That’s still true, whether or not you’d prefer it weren’t.

[Manny]

I think both could live without it if necessary. The Chinese leadership cannot appear to cave to foreign pressure - especially from a high-profile figure like Trump. It's bad for their face. He probably doesn't know that. He'd not be issuing public ultimatums if he did.

Do you think that Mr. & Mrs. Chinese Sixpack (or Rice bowl if you want)
read/listen what negative crapola Trump says about China? I don't. They
censor such things. China isn't as open as Russia, not by a long shot.

Completely wrong. For example, Vance's "peasant" comments are all over WeChat with subtitles.

Chinese state media doesn't censor negative statements about China by President Trump or his administration. Instead, they often highlight such remarks to portray the U.S. as an aggressor and to rally domestic support. This strategy frames external criticism as unjustified attacks, reinforcing nationalistic sentiments and justifying the Chinese government's policies.​

For instance, in response to U.S. tariffs, Chinese state media produced AI-generated videos mocking the measures, depicting them as harmful to American consumers and the global economy. Additionally, state media have drawn parallels between current trade tensions and historical conflicts, emphasizing narratives of foreign oppression to bolster national unity. ​

By amplifying negative statements from U.S. officials, Chinese media aims to shift blame for economic or political challenges onto external forces, particularly the U.S., thereby strengthening domestic cohesion and support for the government's stance.

Exactly that.

I assume we have all noticed that Trump has caved already? 

[andrewfi]

Oh yes, more caves than Cheddar Gorge!

By the way, the videos were hilarious and sad simultaneously, but made a real point, one that I have discussed here in the past.

[Jonas!]

Oh yes, more caves than Cheddar Gorge!
 

Despite all the caves and carve outs by Trump, many of the Chinese sanctions are about to hit the marketplace. Ironically, I've noticed in my market prices have gone down.  It made no sense, but I think I figured out why.  Warehouses are dumping Chinese product and preparing to go out of business or scale back drastically, and they just want to get merchandise out the door asap, as they won't replace it and are preparing to close shop.   For at least a short period it is a great time to get tools, but that period will end very soon, and I suspect options will be limited and expensive.... unless Trump caves some more which is possible.   

Jonas!   

[andrewfi]

Jonas, yes, there will be good deals on some stuff. Probably items where there is a relatively high amount of stockholding, where the suppliers are relatively small organisations.

Once it is gone, it is gone.

In part, that will be down to the lack of certainty. Businesses around the world, not just in China, will be examining their options, but they are unlikely to decide to invest much in anything right now. The sensible option is to reduce costs in all possible directions, cancel purchases where possible and hunker down until the storm passes.

I saw similar, in entirely different circumstances, many years ago in the UK. Many smaller businesses can support their owners and 'core' staff for quite a while if they cut back drastically and quickly early on. Owners might start getting a bit more hands-on with packing and dispatch, but they will still afford their Mercs and Boomers. But the line staff - they begin collecting the dole.

[AvHdB]

Jonas, yes, there will be good deals on some stuff. Probably items where there is a relatively high amount of stockholding, where the suppliers are relatively small organisations.

Once it is gone, it is gone.

In part, that will be down to the lack of certainty. Businesses around the world, not just in China, will be examining their options, but they are unlikely to decide to invest much in anything right now. The sensible option is to reduce costs in all possible directions, cancel purchases where possible and hunker down until the storm passes.

I saw similar, in entirely different circumstances, many years ago in the UK. Many smaller businesses can support their owners and 'core' staff for quite a while if they cut back drastically and quickly early on. Owners might start getting a bit more hands-on with packing and dispatch, but they will still afford their Mercs and Boomers. But the line staff - they begin collecting the dole.

My opinion is Andrew is correct.

Businesses will come out leaner in the end. My only wish is that there was less chaos in the implantation, yes trade is just that. Rarely equitable or balanced but each party has something the other wants.

It is still better than drunken word salad.

[Manny]

The Chinese are already finding ways around this. Ship via Dubai and relabel the source. This is a screenshot I took from Chinese WeChat.

[Texan77]

Yea that will work for a little while then Dubai will have a 135 per cent tariffs as well as any country that does this in scale. It will show up on a computer as a huge increase in Dubai imports to the USA. Trump has already said he would do this.

[Texan77]

The Chinese are already finding ways around this. Ship via Dubai and relabel the source. This is a screenshot I took from Chinese WeChat.

(Attachment Link)

This is a video on the subject.

[dorbradavid]

The Chinese are already finding ways around this. Ship via Dubai and relabel the source. This is a screenshot I took from Chinese WeChat.

Not exactly new, they've been doing this for years, hence some of the "apparently" nonsensical" tariffs on some countries. 

[Bodine]

The Chinese are already finding ways around this. Ship via Dubai and relabel the source. This is a screenshot I took from Chinese WeChat.

Not exactly new, they've been doing this for years, hence some of the "apparently" nonsensical" tariffs on some countries. 

Exactly.

Here’s one example: https://www.reuters.com/article/economy/vietnam-to-crack-down-on-chinese-goods-relabeled-to-beat-us-tariffs-idUSKCN1TB0HY/


But don’t let me tell you china doesn’t violate trade rules and international agreement. Some folks just think it simply doesn’t happen.  It’s the US making them do it.

[Bodine]

S/E Asian pacific is getting hotter by the moment. A massive military drill just kicked off this week that involved mainly the US and the P.I. This is a multi-prong deterrence move for the threat of a Taiwan invasion primarily and Chinese expansionism in the region.

[Faux Pas]

I've followed this guy for several years. He is usually on the mark to the subject. Rarely is he political but leans conservative. He states an excellent description on the tariffs as to how they have been used in the past and the correction Trump is intending to do