Trump wants to drive manufacturing and industries to the USA

[2tallbill]

For better or worse Trump wants to drive manufacturing and industries to the USA
I started this thread about how Trump might do this (or fail). I am copying an
Andrew quote with my comments to get it started.

That is factually incorrect.

I don't disagree technically, but there are always other factors. You can also
factor in that the UK is not the friendliest place to be an employer/manufacturer.

In my opinion, Trump should encourage them to its move their small
modular reactor technology, to the USA. RR wants to create a global fleet
of “factory-built” nuclear power plants.

A stated Trump goal is for the USA to lead the world in both AI and Quantum
computing. The energy requirements for either industries can be vast.

[2tallbill]

RR has only  £15m (US$19.2m) invested (maybe more by now) but a sales
pitch by Trump to move things here wouldn't be the worst idea I've ever
come up with.

Rolls-Royce SMR announces facility to manufacture and test nuclear technology modules
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/news/rolls-royce-smr-announces-facility-to-manufacture-and-test-nuclear-technology-modules/

[andrewfi]

Being correct 'technically' is the best kind of correct.

Large businesses have whole departments tasked with the management of the company's investments, and that includes investing in plant and buildings in various countries. They are constantly carrying out the SLEPT and other formal analyses I mentioned on another thread.

A sales pitch only works if it enables the business to obtain a higher rate of return than the status quo and that isn't just about money.

[2tallbill]

Being correct 'technically' is the best kind of correct.

The sun rises in the East. There are always many factors.

[dorbradavid]

For better or worse Trump wants to drive manufacturing and industries to the USA

I think more US-based manufacturing is a good idea. Not everyone is going to be a "social influencer" and not everyone belongs in college.   

[andrewfi]

For better or worse Trump wants to drive manufacturing and industries to the USA

I think more US-based manufacturing is a good idea. Not everyone is going to be a "social influencer" and not everyone belongs in college.   

Kinda, maybe, probably not.
Here's an experiment for you. Make it a thought experiment as most of us lack the resources to do it IRL.

Imagine you're a Vietnamese bloke (or woman). Smart, hard working and wanting to get ahead. So, you've gone to some kind of further education and now you're going for a job at some fancy smart factory. You get the job and as a result, you can feed yourself, afford a place to live, a new smartphone every year, a girlfriend, possibly even a fancy new electric car. You're doing great. You're working in a modern plant with lots of automation leading to high productivity. People are always needed and the factory bosses are always after new staff as they grow the business.
How money do you earn? I think that guy would be happy to earn as much as $7,500 per year. He'd feel well set and pretty damn chuffed.

Now, let's look closer to home.
Similar work, similar environment, similar skill levels. How much are you earning now?
Probably well in excess of $100k.

Of course there are other elements to consider than just wages, but it is something we can easily relate to and, until factories no longer need people, then wages will be paid...

So, riddle me this. How much manufacturing do you think the USA can pull into the country in a situation where one of the major inputs is costing more than ten times as much? The other inputs are unlikely to be less costly than in, for example, Vietnam.

This means that it is not a good idea for the United States to start making stuff that it can never be competitive in. Not even tariff barriers can make that pig fly.

Now, there might be certain specific industries where one might choose to have manufacturing, even if hopelessly uneconomic - military production springs to mind. The United States are hopelessly dependent on Asian manufacturers and raw materials. How can one have a war against a foe who has been making the critical components in your weaponry?

But making your iToys? Your TVs? Even your apparel? Forget it. You guys don't want to be so poor that you'd think being price competitive with Mr Fong in his factory in Hue was a good idea. If that actually happened, then the U.S would have other much greater problems to contend with.

[andrewfi]

For better or worse Trump wants to drive manufacturing and industries to the USA

I think more US-based manufacturing is a good idea. Not everyone is going to be a "social influencer" and not everyone belongs in college.   

Kinda, maybe, probably not.
Here's an experiment for you. Make it a thought experiment as most of us lack the resources to do it IRL.

Imagine you're a Vietnamese bloke (or woman). Smart, hard working and wanting to get ahead. So, you've gone to some kind of further education and now you're going for a job at some fancy smart factory. You get the job and as a result, you can feed yourself, afford a place to live, a new smartphone every year, a girlfriend, possibly even a fancy new electric car. You're doing great. You're working in a modern plant with lots of automation leading to high productivity. People are always needed and the factory bosses are always after new staff as they grow the business.
How money do you earn? I think that guy would be happy to earn as much as $7,500 per year. He'd feel well set and pretty damn chuffed.

Now, let's look closer to home.
Similar work, similar environment, similar skill levels. How much are you earning now?
Probably well in excess of $100k.

Of course there are other elements to consider than just wages, but it is something we can easily relate to and, until factories no longer need people, then wages will be paid...

So, riddle me this. How much manufacturing do you think the USA can pull into the country in a situation where one of the major inputs is costing more than ten times as much? The other inputs are unlikely to be less costly than in, for example, Vietnam.

This means that it is not a good idea for the United States to start making stuff that it can never be competitive in. Not even tariff barriers can make that pig fly.

Now, there might be certain specific industries where one might choose to have manufacturing, even if hopelessly uneconomic - military production springs to mind. The United States are hopelessly dependent on Asian manufacturers and raw materials. How can one have a war against a foe who has been making the critical components in your weaponry?

But making your iToys? Your TVs? Even your apparel? Forget it. You guys don't want to be so poor that you'd think being price competitive with Mr Fong in his factory in Hue was a good idea. If that actually happened, then the U.S would have other much greater problems to contend with.

[Bodine]

Not a good example at all Andrew. Trade deficit with Vietnam is actually twice that of Canada.

Sure goods are made much cheaper in 3rd world country. This chiefly creates a lot of trade imbalances. The irony is, most of these products are 'American owned companies' that went abroad for exactly what you cited - cheap labor.

But methinks there's more than just balancing 'trade deficits' that Trump is trying to achieve. Bringing manufacturing back home is certainly one of them, but methinks there's also a heightened need to slow down the disparity between the US societal class structure.

I saw a study between the class separation in the early '90s in the US. Contrasting that to what it is today is pretty alarming. The separation between the rich from the poor is literally now 100 times further apart - the vanishing 'middle-class' to use an oft term expressed these days.

Deregulation will impact some of the cost structure in manufacturing. Energy independence will also help boost overhead expense. We have millions upon millions of 'illegal aliens' that can be employed and given guest worker permits, maybe even residency that can be employed in these facilities, programs can also be expanded where a controlled regulatory rules can allow companies to establish manufacturing in So American nations where geographical transit of goods can be 'cheaper' than cross oceanic transport while at the same time providing a few sources of hometown employment in respective regions, which will then slow down the influx of illegal immigration, etc...

Trump administration is currently and aggressively working on a (one) spending bill push with Congress that will extend the current tax plan later this year, which will now included the no tax on tips, SS, and overtime' he campaigned for. He is now adding a no tax on of income of $150,000.00/year or less.

He feels the annual trade deficit is costing the US almost a trillion dollars/year. Instead of the taxpayers paying for this annually, bring back American owned businesses and eliminate these deficits, including eliminate the abuses and wasteful spending DOGE is skimming through right now, will balance the budget and make middle-class America come back in fruition.

An aside to consider too. Not sure how many, but apparently the whole 'gold visa' has had a very positive development and applications. Businesses and entrepreneurial investors seem to be getting good receptions. 

[2tallbill]

But making your iToys? Your TVs? Even your apparel? Forget it. You guys don't want to be so poor that you'd think being price competitive with Mr Fong in his factory in Hue was a good idea. If that actually happened, then the U.S would have other much greater problems to contend with.

I suggested earlier moving a company here like Rolls Royce, so they can build
mini nuke plants.  Some things would have to be fully automated with a few
guys to keep Spacely Sprockets running.

Elon Musk has spoken about it. Some things are better suited to be built
elsewhere by others. I don't think anyone thinks that everything should
be built here.

Samsung has a 1.6 million square foot building with 4300 employees here
in Austin, but I don't think they make any phones here. I believe they make
semi-conductors here.

[andrewfi]

Bodine, the trade deficit is irrelevant in the comparison I was making. But, if it pleases you, pick another country for your mind experiment. It does not really matter.

The reality is that U.S. manufacturing is hollowed out. To be efficient at manufacturing, one needs a degree of vertical integration. The reality is that the U.S. is a FIRE-based service economy. The value that USAians can add is the intellectual stuff, the highest value, top-of-the-chain stuff. Not the digging it out of the ground and making plastic buckets stuff (or cars).

That's commendable, until one realizes that the education that propels high-level achievements is also eroded. If Mr. Trump aspires to make America great without plunging all of you into poverty, where you would gladly sell your sister for a Mickey D's Happy Meal, then he needs to address education. If and when all the Asian-looking guys and girls abandon their master's and PhD programs in challenging subjects and return home to join their smarter siblings^*, it will significantly impact the economy, regardless of the relative or absolute advantages of trade models.

And yes, class disparity is a real issue. But the solution isn’t to bring back low-margin jobs that disappeared for a reason — it’s to equip people for the jobs that are actually growing. Otherwise you’re just nostalgically chasing the 1950s with 2020s economics."

And if reshoring factories was all it took to balance trade and rebuild the middle class, someone would’ve done it back when Miami Vice was still on TV.

^*In many, but not all, cases these days, Asian, particularly Chinese, people come to the U.S. to study because they are unable to get into the Chinese university system where entry is fiercely competitive, notwithstanding the huge number of places available to the right people. 25 years ago, that was not the case - hence the large number of Asian-looking people heading up USAian tech businesses today.

[Bodine]

A lot truths in what you laid out Andrew. But now you’re covering a separate niche apart from civil and socio-economic condition I thought we were discussing.

Of late, not only Chinese but the greater Asiatic population, are achieving commendable merit academically, and in some regards far better when in comparison to that of western standards. True in fact, in international competition notably in science and math, Asian/Chinese perform very well, or even excel at times over their counterparts.

Chinese education is so stringent and structured that their university admittance program - Gaokao ( SAT in the US ) really filters proven and tested students and only those top achievers ever get the opportunity to further their education. No doubt much had improved in the region when it comes to education. I think china now has the highest level of adult literacy in the world IINM.

What I can leave in this discussion, as I only has anecdotal sampling to share based whole and in parts in my own experience is, while it’s very impressive to witness these kids wiz through with their mathematical skills, and even in their scientific knowledge, there is always the proverbial but - and this is just from my personal observation to those I mentored in our trade over the years - many seem to lack practical application and/or finding relationships in a given sometimes confined sets of information.

Just IMO, living in the type of world we now exist in today, there’s more to say about critical thinking than we give it credit. To me, it still trumps, no pun intended, rote learning and education. IME, structured education is flawed because of its obvious limitation. It’s impressive to see and listen how well folks can recall memorialized or even ingrained numerical equations, but figuring out that a square peg just doesn’t fit through round holes still seem pretty elusive to some.

Now I am not generalizing a tidy small sampling and projecting it to a whole. Nor do I suggest anything else beyond and outside what I’ve experience. But the pattern do exist.

Practical application and critical thinking still I believe is far more important to adapt to a changing world we have today.

But yes, point taken but feel a section of western society, not just the US, still have much to feel secured.

[Jonas!]

 methinks there's also a heightened need to slow down the disparity between the US societal class structure.

 We have millions upon millions of 'illegal aliens' that can be employed and given guest worker permits, maybe even residency that can be employed in these facilities, programs 

You are really coming around on some of these opinions here.  I've taken a lot of heat from conservatives for mentioning these types of things in years past.  We shouldn't be deporting millions of illegals but rather channel their willingness to work to help forward our financial future. 
..and yes regarding the class disparity between rich and poor is something that we got to bring in line somehow...whether it be through taxation or wage increases or a little of both.   I realize there are consequences, but the differential between rich/poor is pretty far out of whack nowadays.

An aside to consider too. Not sure how many, but apparently the whole 'gold visa' has had a very positive development and applications. Businesses and entrepreneurial investors seem to be getting good receptions. 

I'd like to see some numbers on this one...my impression is the golden visa is going to be a flop.   Trump mentioned 10 million people would want it.   I don't see enough benefit for most people to bother with it but am open to hearing differently. 

Jonas! 

[2tallbill]

An aside to consider too. Not sure how many, but apparently the whole 'gold visa' has had a very positive development and applications. Businesses and entrepreneurial investors seem to be getting good receptions.

At $5 Million Each, 1000 ‘Gold Card’ Visas Have Been Sold
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dougmelville/2025/03/26/at-5-million-each-1000-gold-card-visas-have-been-sold-could-this-pay-off-the-us-debt/



Loophole
"Trump has said that gold-card holders would not be subject to taxes on their overseas income. This tax loophole could open the door to more wealthy foreigners looking to protect their wealth. However, many details about the scheme remain unclear."

https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-plan-to-cut-national-debt-by-selling-gold-card-visas-for-us-5-million-each-wont-work-251183

[andrewfi]

Keep clutching at those fig leaves!
Sadly they're too small to keep one warm when it gets cold outside.

My experience working with these 'rote trained' students is rather different to yours, but then I am not fig leaf dependent.

You see, it is all about the allocation of (scarce) resources: economics, so no, it ain't a different discussion. It's a part of a skein, used to make the fabric of an entire economy. If the fibres are too loose or entirely absent, then decent cloth cannot be made.

[dorbradavid]

Now, there might be certain specific industries where one might choose to have manufacturing, even if hopelessly uneconomic - military production springs to mind. The United States are hopelessly dependent on Asian manufacturers and raw materials. How can one have a war against a foe who has been making the critical components in your weaponry?

Nicely put, shipping (sea) also, etc. 

[Bodine]

Keep clutching at those fig leaves!
Sadly they're too small to keep one warm when it gets cold outside.

My experience working with these 'rote trained' students is rather different to yours, but then I am not fig leaf dependent.

You see, it is all about the allocation of (scarce) resources: economics, so no, it ain't a different discussion. It's a part of a skein, used to make the fabric of an entire economy. If the fibres are too loose or entirely absent, then decent cloth cannot be made.

Speaking of clutching, while I do appreciate the cautionary heeding, I can still remember the same (typical?) warnings you unleashed 20-25 years ago. IIRC, we'd be roughshod by now by the hordes of academically superior Sergeis you said was to take place in the next decade or so. Give or take one.

Apparently, the leading role today is Li Wang replacing Sergei where applicable. Hopeful though that the Rooski shine hasn't lost its twinkle in your eyes.

Not sure if this is just nostalgia on your part, a sequel to a sage or maybe there's a budding trilogy you're about to release in the not too distant future.

[B.B.]

We have millions upon millions of 'illegal aliens' that can be employed and given guest worker permits

The problem here is not Mexicans, it's uncontrolled illegal immigration that lets in Salvadorans and Venezuelans (they seem to be the main offenders) who rape women and children and set people on fire. 

You notice how in Tom Homan's first week as ICE director, some child rapists got scooped up right away?  That means ICE knew where they were but had been ordered by someone in the Biden administration NOT to act because it might "look bad" for "brown people" - the same sort of retarded nonsense the let to thousands of British children being raped by mostly Pakistani (but some Somali) Muslim men whilst British authorities developed some awful brain-wasting disease that caused them to do nothing because, well, same reasons. 

Jocelyn Nungaray was a particularly egregious case - she spent her last 2 hours on Earth fighting for her life but was ultimately tortured to death by two Venezuelan illegals who then dumped her body in a swamp.  Trump was right, they aren't sending their best.  But the Leftards in the Biden Administration couldn't bring themselves to stop their little brown diversity pets from entering the country, because, you know, restaurants or some shit.

Back to labor, I think you will see it more in the Ag sector, although tech may ultimately replace humans there.  Humans have a low up-front cost, particularly in the mkt for unskilled labor, but robots, once paid for, do not.  They need maintenance and energy, but they don't get sick, need food, sleep, etc.

B/B

[dorbradavid]

Worth viewing - I suspect some of the people here have no idea 

[andrewfi]

Bodine, those 'sergeis' as you put it, very quickly and effectively replaced almost all the foreign consultants, managers, etc., working in Russia. Gone are the days when Western consultants could wander into Moscow and pick up a huge salary to 'educate' Russians. That was already changing back when I used to talk about it.

Now, look at the changes wrought within the domestic economy. Local scientists, technologists, economists, managers, and business owners enabled those changes. Of course, there have been a fair few émigré Russians over in the USA and other western countries, and they have not been doing badly either.

Don't ever make the mistake that many do of imagining that the world is based on 'events.' The world is founded on processes. There may be inflection points, and I have been fortunate to be at ground zero for at least a couple of them. But change is a process; it is time-based. As I have pointed out many times, many processes will take decades to play out, but some have taken place faster than I expected - but then I am a bloke posting on a forum, not some well-paid geezer heading up a shiny think tank.

[2tallbill]

Speaking of clutching, while I do appreciate the cautionary heeding, I can still remember the same (typical?) warnings you unleashed 20-25 years ago. IIRC, we'd be roughshod by now by the hordes of academically superior Sergeis you said was to take place in the next decade or so. Give or take one.

Apparently, the leading role today is Li Wang replacing Sergei where applicable. Hopeful though that the Rooski shine hasn't lost its twinkle in your eyes.

Not sure if this is just nostalgia on your part, a sequel to a sage or maybe there's a budding trilogy you're about to release in the not too distant future.

They need Western help for a lot of their oil work. They can run it for a while
on their own, but not forever.