China versus USA

[Contrarian]

China versus the USA, in economic ways.

Washington's Attempts to Bully China Will Only Backfire

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This is stunning: the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) now projects that in 2030, China’s share of the world’s industrial production will reach 45%, more than 4 times that of the US (11%) and more than that of all High Income Countries combined (38%). In 2000, China’s share was just 6% to the US’s 25% and High Income Countries’ 75%. @RnaudBertrand

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

[Contrarian]

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According to recent surveys, based on reported happiness levels, people in China tend to report higher levels of happiness compared to the United States, with some studies even ranking China as one of the happiest countries globally… 95% of Chinese expressed satisfaction with their government while only 35% Americans expressed satisfaction with their government in Harvard and Gallup polls.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

[AvHdB]

Quote

According to recent surveys, based on reported happiness levels, people in China tend to report higher levels of happiness compared to the United States, with some studies even ranking China as one of the happiest countries globally… 95% of Chinese expressed satisfaction with their government while only 35% Americans expressed satisfaction with their government in Harvard and Gallup polls.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

Tell me it ain’t so, the drugs are not working?

[Contrarian]

Quote

According to recent surveys, based on reported happiness levels, people in China tend to report higher levels of happiness compared to the United States, with some studies even ranking China as one of the happiest countries globally… 95% of Chinese expressed satisfaction with their government while only 35% Americans expressed satisfaction with their government in Harvard and Gallup polls.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

Tell me it ain’t so, the drugs are not working?

Apparently not.

Take a look at the comparison of food prices, for a good idea why not. 

And then there is the cost of rent versus income in the USA - ouch!

[WestCoast]

China versus the USA, in economic ways.

Washington's Attempts to Bully China Will Only Backfire

Quote

This is stunning: the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) now projects that in 2030, China’s share of the world’s industrial production will reach 45%, more than 4 times that of the US (11%) and more than that of all High Income Countries combined (38%). In 2000, China’s share was just 6% to the US’s 25% and High Income Countries’ 75%. @RnaudBertrand

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

If what you're saying is true then China would have a lot to lose by invading Taiwan in the coming years.

[WestCoast]

Quote

According to recent surveys, based on reported happiness levels, people in China tend to report higher levels of happiness compared to the United States, with some studies even ranking China as one of the happiest countries globally… 95% of Chinese expressed satisfaction with their government while only 35% Americans expressed satisfaction with their government in Harvard and Gallup polls.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

Tell me it ain’t so, the drugs are not working?

Apparently not.

Take a look at the comparison of food prices, for a good idea why not. 

And then there is the cost of rent versus income in the USA - ouch!

The World Happiness Report comes to a completely different conclusion. Look at the data and it says that the people of China are not happy compared to the Nordic countries and places such as Canada, the UK, Australia, the US and much of the western world.

https://www.gallup.com/analytics/349487/world-happiness-report.aspx

[Jonas!]

China versus the USA, in economic ways.

Washington's Attempts to Bully China Will Only Backfire

Quote

This is stunning: the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) now projects that in 2030, China’s share of the world’s industrial production will reach 45%, more than 4 times that of the US (11%) and more than that of all High Income Countries combined (38%). In 2000, China’s share was just 6% to the US’s 25% and High Income Countries’ 75%. @RnaudBertrand

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/washingtons-attempts-to-bully-china-will-only-backfire/

China is rising fast, and the stats you displayed bear that out.    What we have in our country is a lot of whiny old complainers, but China doesn't give one hoot.  They have their foot on the gas while we complain about everything they do.  Very simply they are beating us, and I'm not seeing many indications that this is reversing.   Trump may feel he has to use the military to take over lands in an underhanded move to gain resources and access points.  We are in Syria, we have empowered Israel to seemingly expand, and Trump talked about taking Venezuelan oil, and now about expanding our reach in places like Panama and Greenland.   While all this is happening, people are yapping about China expanding.   China is expanding their business interests through mutual agreements and that was considered fair play when we were doing it, but now that the shoe is on the other foot....

Jonas! 

[2tallbill]

Washington's Attempts to Bully China Will Only Backfire

Who is going to try bullying China?

The China growth projections were made by using pre covid historical
growth then extrapolating. China was on an unsustainable growth spurt.
China can't achieve 10% growth forever.

I grew 5 inches my freshman year of high school if I used that data to
extrapolate how tall I would be now. I would be using an unsustainable
model.

[Texan77]

Washington's Attempts to Bully China Will Only Backfire

Who is going to try bullying China?

The China growth projections were made by using pre covid historical
growth then extrapolating. China was on an unsustainable growth spurt.
China can't achieve 10% growth forever.

I grew 5 inches my freshman year of high school if I used that data to
extrapolate how tall I would be now. I would be using an unsustainable
model.

China has too many factories, too many buildings and too many trains. So where the new growth going to be? It does not look like it is going to be EV's. The world is getting ready for a huge recession. Being over built, China is not starting off in a good position. Try comparing Chinese stock market prices to those in the USA. Being over built is not profitable and is not sustainable. China numbers come from the local state's data as to how much growth has occurred in each state. States that are laggards the get their leadership replaced. So, the numbers continue to look good as people want to keep their jobs. The real numbers of GDP and population in China is something no one really knows other than they are less than reported.

[Jonas!]

China has too many factories, too many buildings and too many trains. So where the new growth going to be? 

It is a better position to have too much than not enough.   China can produce at prices the US can't compete with. 

   China numbers come from the local state's data as to how much growth has occurred in each state. States that are laggards the get their leadership replaced. So, the numbers continue to look good as people want to keep their jobs. The real numbers of GDP and population in China is something no one really knows other than they are less than reported.

The same is said about the US and its stats.   I think the proof is in the pudding and if you see which country's products are being shipped everywhere you will find that it is mostly China's. With their profits they invested in new ports, which will further position them to make more profits.    The profit may be slim, but their cost of living isn't as high as in the US.  This makes it difficult to compete with them.  US companies need to keep costs down, but that comes at the expense of labor.  Somewhere illegals fit into this equation.   

Jonas! 

[2tallbill]

It is a better position to have too much than not enough.   China can produce at prices the US can't compete with. 

Jonas!

[B.B.]

It is a better position to have too much than not enough.   China can produce at prices the US can't compete with. 

Jonas!

{Snip!}

I've explained all of this to him - I went further in depth than Bass does about their food & energy, and he went deeper into the financials, and his response was "CHiNa WouLD NeVeR aLLoW..." because he's stuck in his own, imaginary paradigm. /shrugs

We should, ofc, be decoupling from China, economically, and denying them as much of the dollar trade as possible.  They treat us as an enemy, and we should act accordingly.  Once Trump started the ball rolling, Google announced that they were moving their manufacturing to Vietnam, but not sure if they followed through on that.

B/B

[Jonas!]

I've explained all of this to him - I went further in depth than Bass does about their food & energy, and he went deeper into the financials, and his response was "CHiNa WouLD NeVeR aLLoW..." because he's stuck in his own, imaginary paradigm. /shrugs

B/B

You have self qualified yourself as being in a position to 'explain' anything and seem to be upset that I haven't agreed with what you said.
China is currently has overtaken us in many respects nowadays. 

Although we hold a military advantage over China it isn't overwhelming, and we haven't been able to use it as the consequences would be too great if we did.  Your paradigm is the imaginary one.

We should, ofc, be decoupling from China, economically, and denying them as much of the dollar trade as possible.  They treat us as an enemy, and we should act accordingly.  Once Trump started the ball rolling, Google announced that they were moving their manufacturing to Vietnam, but not sure if they followed through on that.

B/B

China is decoupling from us.  Why do you think they have been cashing the IOU's with us to the tune of 100's of billions of dollars? 
 By doing this, they are no longer helping keep interest rates low in the US.  They are investing their money elsewhere and our interest rates are rising.  Not as many countries want to get involved with our borrowing, even at the current higher rates.  You can deny it all you like but we are heading for a cliff, not China. 
You a lot of this bass-ackwards.     We have been treating China like the enemy...and now they are making us pay.

[Jonas!]

It is a better position to have too much than not enough.   China can produce at prices the US can't compete with. 

Jonas!

There are 10 of these videos out everyday for the past 10 years.   Meanwhile, China keeps doing what it is doing, while we grumble over it...and proclaim they are doing terrible.   It doesn't wash.

Jonas! 

[Contrarian]

It is a better position to have too much than not enough.   China can produce at prices the US can't compete with. 

Jonas!

{Snip!}

I've explained all of this to him - I went further in depth than Bass does about their food & energy, and he went deeper into the financials, and his response was "CHiNa WouLD NeVeR aLLoW..." because he's stuck in his own, imaginary paradigm. /shrugs

We should, ofc, be decoupling from China, economically, and denying them as much of the dollar trade as possible.  They treat us as an enemy, and we should act accordingly.  Once Trump started the ball rolling, Google announced that they were moving their manufacturing to Vietnam, but not sure if they followed through on that.

B/B

We should be decoupling from China, and producing our own products for our home market, such as pharmaceuticals. However we cannot do that, since we are controlled by the MIC and they dominate everything. As many have noted, our main exports are wars, including of course military equipment, etc. At the same time, the influx of Millions of Illegals, has caused horrific inflation on everything -- rent, mortgages, gas, food and medicines.

Until the USA throws off the shackles of warmongers and war profiteers, we will not be able to dedicate our economy to producing positive products, and at the same time slowly "decouple" from China. It doesn't help when the Republican party under Trump, ran up budget deficits almost as large as the Democrats. Hopefully Trump will be very serious about evicting illegals, no matter how much whining the left puts forth.

Trump lacks discipline; let's see if Musk and Vivek can do any better by pushing real budget cuts.

Until then it appears that China is more productive than the USA. 

[rosco]

They treat us as an enemy, and we should act accordingly.

TBF I see it very much the other way about. Anyone who competes with the US becomes the enemy. Take the knee and you become dangerous friends.

[Manny]

We should be decoupling from China, and producing our own products for our home market, such as pharmaceuticals.

You can't decouple from them; you are reliant on them.

In the UK and the EU, and I assume the US too, there has been a gradual deindustrialisation in recent decades. This is deliberate intent by the left, the globalists and the eco loons, and a result of WEF, bad policy and over-regulation on the right. But the result is the same: make stuff where it is cheaper and import it. Then everyone has to do it to compete or survive.

Then everyone complains there are no jobs and wails about China.

[andrewfi]

You can't decouple from them; you are reliant on them.

True that.

To reduce dependence, it will take a huge effort to rebuild domestic industry while keeping costs below those of China. I am open to suggestions as to how that might be done. Tariffs are not the answer; tariffs are, in effect, a tax on the consumers of the tariffed goods. To start solving the issue, the U.S. will need to reverse the corporate taxation policies that were the driver of offshoring in the first place. At the outset, U.S. businesses did not want to offshore; they did so as a rational response to the increasingly high corporate taxation policies. Of course, once the Chinese made their business environment more comfortable, the choice became easier.

As I have written previously, it is not enough to simply choose a new overseas base of operations in, for example, Vietnam. What is tending to happen is that Chinese firms are themselves offshoring to other Asian countries because China is, very often, no longer the lowest-cost environment. So, USAian businesses end up dealing with Chinese counterparties as they have the skills, quality, and logistics networks that USAian businesses seek. USAian businesses, when they offshore to China these days, are doing so to take advantage of the logistics networks that exist in China and that the U.S. businesses need in order to obtain timely supply of the goods they need at the quality they require with a price they can profitably resell in the U.S. market.

Even if alternate suppliers can be found in Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. that are not Chinese owned, there is no real benefit to North American businesses because, while the buyers might be able to avoid tariffs, the larger issue of the inadequate manufacturing base in the USA remains unsolved. So, all that will happen is that U.S. firms will build up alternate supply networks in alternate countries only to have tariffs slapped on them again in a few years when the U.S. government again feels threatened by the new 'powerhouse' manufacturing centres.

Bear in mind that setting up the networks, including offshore manufacturing in U.S.-owned or part-owned facilities, requires huge amounts of investment. Businesses will not make such changes if they cannot feel that such an investment will pay itself back. Businesses may feel it is safer to continue to pay tariffs because they will still make their hurdle rate of return—consumers pay the bills because they will have little choice!

[andrewfi]

If what you're saying is true then China would have a lot to lose by invading Taiwan in the coming years.

They would, and the Chinese have no desire to do so. Of course, they do as rational people tend to do: hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Of course, if such a disaster were to happen, it is a fair bet that the USA (and other countries) would fare worse from the action than the Chinese would!

To what degree are the Chinese and Taiwanese economies intertwined? https://chatgpt.com/share/67867953-6828-8008-8c11-49aa291b7026

What would be the effect upon the U.S. and other eonomies of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? https://chatgpt.com/share/67867a14-ff88-8008-a64b-1d8b15ca265f

Bear in mind that the Chinese would have prepared themselves for such an eventuality both in terms of timing and economics. That'd be a luxury that the global economy would not enjoy!

[2tallbill]

Tariffs are not the answer; tariffs are, in effect, a tax on the consumers of the tariffed goods.

You should not pretend that tariffs are a one way street. China protects
several of their industries with very high tariffs. 100% of all American
goods get a tariff on it when it enters China.

Tariff's can be part of the solution especially in the short term. China has
significant barriers to entry for a vast array of American made goods.
Tariffs can be a carrot/stick when tied to corresponding Chinese tariffs.
Tariffs can be punishments for dumping. Tariffs are a tool in negotiation.
I would agree that tariff's are not good long term solutions.

[andrewfi]

for context its helpful to know some details...
Chinese tarrifs had been falling until the USA started to throw their weight around. One can look at time series data comparing both countries but I dont have the inclination to do that. However here are some data points - you can do the reading yourself to put the leaves on the trees...

By 2018,the weighted mean of all tariffs imposed by China had fallen from 32% in 1992 to just 3.39% before  the USA started their trade war the US tariffs were about 2.68 TWA. There was a clear trend downward from the Chinese side that had accelerated since China joined the WTO.

By 2022,the USA was charging about 11.82%. The new tariff program of 25-100% tariffs from the USA started in Q3 2024. I don't know the TWA that this will cause but given the sectors involved it will be significant. The Chinese have been reactive, the USA proactive. I don't have 2024 numbers, but in 2022,the figure was just 3.07%.

While it is not a one-way street, and I did not suggest it was, it is clear that there has been a 6 lane highway running in one direction and an unpaved cart track in the other.

I expect the Chinese will now be building a well-paved highway toward the USA. Not everything they do will be tariff-based. The USA started an economic war on multiple fronts. The Chinese have chosen to do more than just set up a defence, they now see that an offensive is required to protect their economy and people.

[WestCoast]

If what you're saying is true then China would have a lot to lose by invading Taiwan in the coming years.

Bear in mind that the Chinese would have prepared themselves for such an eventuality both in terms of timing and economics. That'd be a luxury that the global economy would not enjoy!

The Chinese would have prepared themselves for such an eventuality both in terms of timing and economics? China has to cross about 100 miles of ocean to reach Taiwan by ship. That distance is even longer travel by air from many Chinese military airfields. All seaports and airfields close to Taiwan are currently under satellite observation. Any buildup at these locations will be noticed. 

China's largest trading partners are ASEAN, the EU and the US. If China invades Taiwan, most of that trade will go away. Where will China get its needed raw goods from? Russia might be able to meet some of those needs particularly regarding energy and some raw materials. However China's GDP would drop dramatically lowering China's standard of living. Not good for China if hundreds of millions of Chinese find themselves unemployed and sending their young men off to war. Maybe rioting and violence at home?

[Contrarian]

This is another article about China versus the USA. I imagine Andrew will understand this the best as he has the best Economics education of anyone on the forum, IMO.

Quote

"Consider that in 1980, the Chinese population overwhelmingly consisted of desperately impoverished peasants, far poorer than Haitians. And compare that recent past with those videos of China’s enormous, futuristic cities, now among the most advanced in the entire world, with nearly all of those gleaming, towering edifices constructed in just the last two or three decades. Obviously, nothing like this has ever previously happened in the history of the world…"

A Chinese Man offers a rebuttal to US media bias

"…As a Chinese, I have already tuned out the dishonest western media when it comes to reporting on China (or any adversarial countries for that matter). I used to read NYT, WSJ, FT, the Economist, etc almost on daily basis, especially their reports on China, for at least 2 decades. But since 2017 or so, the bias in the reporting has become epidemic, even laughable. Now I receive most of my news from the so-called alternative media…"

AND

"Four decades ago, the United States bankrupted the Soviet Union by forcing it to devote ever more of its economy to defense while neglecting the welfare of its citizens. Now we Americans are diverting ever more borrowed and taxpayer dollars to our military even as our human and physical infrastructure decays. In some ways, in relation to China, we are now in the position of the USSR in the Cold War. Our fiscal trajectory is injurious to the general welfare of Americans. That, along with our liberties, is, however, what our armed forces are meant to defend."


https://www.unz.com/runz/america-vs-china-a-comprehensive-review-of-the-economic-technological-and-military-factors/

[Jonas!]

The Chinese would have prepared themselves for such an eventuality both in terms of timing and economics? China has to cross about 100 miles of ocean to reach Taiwan by ship. That distance is even longer travel by air from many Chinese military airfields. All seaports and airfields close to Taiwan are currently under satellite observation. Any buildup at these locations will be noticed. 

China's largest trading partners are ASEAN, the EU and the US. If China invades Taiwan, most of that trade will go away. Where will China get its needed raw goods from? Russia might be able to meet some of those needs particularly regarding energy and some raw materials. However China's GDP would drop dramatically lowering China's standard of living. Not good for China if hundreds of millions of Chinese find themselves unemployed and sending their young men off to war. Maybe rioting and violence at home?

Why would China invade Taiwan when their arrangement is working so well already?  China has passed the US in many respects around the globe and keep gaining in other areas.  They don't really need any game changer events.  Of course, the US needs to create a game changer, but world leaders probably already know that.   China hasn't fallen into any traps yet, so who knows what scheme we will concoct next.   In order to rise we have to hope China falls, so we try to goad trip) them, all China has to do is stay the course. Their position is stronger and getting stronger still. 

Jonas!   

[Contrarian]

The author of the article and also a Chinese contributor do a very good job at analyzing the prospect of war between the USA and China. Unfortunately the USA as a country which does not want to live in a multi-polarity world seems intent on goading a war to happen between China and the US. The war would be fought in Asia which favors China. The US has allies in that area such as Japan who seem to be on our side, however if a hot war happens, will they remain on our side? Is such a war really justified, or just the WA DC people provoking a war without any real justification, other than hubris?

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• Much of Chinese industrial capacity is state-owned and can be easily mobilized for defense production. All major defense firms are state owned and produce for purpose, rather than profit.

• China’s cost, speed, and scale advantages in industrial production are not in dispute while the US suffers from well-documented cost and production schedule issues in its military industrial complex.

• It’s safe to say China enjoys the same pole position in its capacity to sustain a long war as the US enjoyed in WWII. China has an overwhelming industrial superiority that the US has never experienced with any adversaries in its history.


https://www.unz.com/runz/america-vs-china-a-comprehensive-review-of-the-economic-technological-and-military-factors/