Ukrainian counter offensive

[AvHdB]

I state all of that to say this; Nothing happening in the last 100 years or so in Ukraine has been the "will" of the Ukrainian people. Why would this war be any different. Ukraine has been declared as the most corrupt nation for a purpose. One could say that's the way the Ukrainian people want it because they tolerate and even encourage it. IMHO, they've never had a choice and this war is no different. The outside influence of Ukraine has called the shots since the Russian Bolshevik revolution

While a rather pessimistic view I can understand the ignorance that is the foundation. The ‘will’ of the Ukraine people has been rather singular, for generations, freedom from control and subjugation by the Kremlin. Ukraine, has for a variety reasons always been more westward looking than Russia.

As for the reason why Zelensky was elected President it is NOT for the reasons mentioned above, but this would be a long post.

[andrewfi]

Of course, only the severely hampered would discount the possibility of more than one point of origin for attacks with more than one target area where the targets are at quite some distance from each other.

There are some options that can easily be discounted for reasons of geography. The targeting of Pskov does rather suggest a point of origin that is not in Ukraine and practicality suggests that the point of origin may well be located in Latvia or Estonia.

It is not possible to make a conclusion at this time, but we can fairly safely discount Ukraine as the point of origin for the strikes in Pskov region. In addition, the lie of the land, or in this case water, makes a route that crosses lake Peipsi worthy of consideration. That's because drones flying very low over level water would be very hard to spot by electronic or physical means.

WRT to Zelensky, it is a matter of record that he stood on a platform of reconciliation and peace. That was the overarching reason why he gained the majority he did. To argue otherwise is to have either a very faulty memory or to have been misled by the rewriting of history by those with a vested interest in doing so..

[Markje]

As for the reason why Zelensky was elected President it is NOT for the reasons mentioned above, but this would be a long post.[/size][/font]

Been fighting this part of misinformation since his election ..

Another item that has emerged is four or depending on whom you read five of the prisoners sent East were wanted for crimes or questioning regarding sniper shooting during the Maidan revolution. It seems V. Zelensky felt that sending this group East would help the peace process. While criticized in the Rada this seems a pragmatic move to help end this quagmire and move Ukraine forward.

Many of the ukrainians I am in contact with said that they voted for Zelensky because he promised to finally end the war with donbass. Not with soldiers, but by trying to grant the demands Donbass made when they first broke away (forbidding RU-language etc.).

Seems he will have an impossible task there, because this war hits the Treasury real good and it will take money to implement some things (road improvements, pensions higher etc.).

[BC]

It is not possible to make a conclusion at this time, but we can fairly safely discount Ukraine as the point of origin for the strikes in Pskov region. In addition, the lie of the land, or in this case water, makes a route that crosses lake Peipsi worthy of consideration. That's because drones flying very low over level water would be very hard to spot by electronic or physical means.

Can't discount UA operatives located in RU with the cardboard drones supplied by AU.  Light, easy to assemble, held together by rubber bands, easy to smuggle, and practically invisible to radar.  I reckon they can carry a couple or three kilos of HE.

[Faux Pas]

I state all of that to say this; Nothing happening in the last 100 years or so in Ukraine has been the "will" of the Ukrainian people. Why would this war be any different. Ukraine has been declared as the most corrupt nation for a purpose. One could say that's the way the Ukrainian people want it because they tolerate and even encourage it. IMHO, they've never had a choice and this war is no different. The outside influence of Ukraine has called the shots since the Russian Bolshevik revolution

While a rather pessimistic view I can understand the ignorance that is the foundation. The ‘will’ of the Ukraine people has been rather singular, for generations, freedom from control and subjugation by the Kremlin. Ukraine, has for a variety reasons always been more westward looking than Russia.

As for the reason why Zelensky was elected President it is NOT for the reasons mentioned above, but this would be a long post.

Well I suppose you ran out of electronic ink or you just can't be bothered?

Ukraine is a rather pessimistic situation. It is what it is and it isn't improving any time soon. You are free to hail Zelensky as your hero all your hearts desire. Makes me not a bit of difference but there are those of us that see him as nothing more than a front man for the global elites. My point concerning the comic was, neither you nor I or anyone else here knows whether he was elected or selected. I'll leave you to your ignorance to figure out what that means.

Russia has been guilty of much over the years and Putin is no choirboy. As for me, my eyes are opening and I fear that the West, the US, NATO and Britain have far more skeletons in the closet than does Russia.

[AJ]

It is not possible to make a conclusion at this time, but we can fairly safely discount Ukraine as the point of origin for the strikes in Pskov region. In addition, the lie of the land, or in this case water, makes a route that crosses lake Peipsi worthy of consideration. That's because drones flying very low over level water would be very hard to spot by electronic or physical means.

Can't discount UA operatives located in RU with the cardboard drones supplied by AU.  Light, easy to assemble, held together by rubber bands, easy to smuggle, and practically invisible to radar.  I reckon they can carry a couple or three kilos of HE.

They already did exactly this within russia  a week or two back, and raised the ukrainian flag on the oblast administration building the day of the attack.

Ocvmcums razor points that since they wernt caught ....🤷‍♂️

[AJ]

FP,
Global elite .
 
What amuses  they holt &^%^ out of me about the right talking heads chirping about puti taking on the global elite..


Is the incredible irony they dont notice they are speaking of one of the worlds wealthiest most.powerful global elites ,that has spent decades in cultivsting his countries wealth and in culmulsting his power and offing all serious opposition .
Thats their hero?
Dear Lord ya'll

He is ONE of them ,and one of the most prolific and best at the game ,if you believe in such things.
🤷‍♂️

Conspircy theorist cant have thier cake and eat it too,  either.

[Faux Pas]

FP,
Global elite .
 
What amuses  they holt &^%^ out of me about the right talking heads chirping about puti taking on the global elite..


Is the incredible irony they dont notice they are speaking of one of the worlds wealthiest most.powerful global elites ,that has spent decades in cultivsting his countries wealth and in culmulsting his power and offing all serious opposition .
Thats their hero?
Dear Lord ya'll

He is ONE of them ,and one of the most prolific and best at the game ,if you believe in such things.
🤷‍♂️

Conspircy theorist cant have thier cake and eat it too,  either.

AJ,

Which exactly "right talking heads" are you referring, Me? I'm not now nor have I ever defended Putin, his oligarchs or their collective actions. Because Putin is a POS does not make the Putin opposition elites good guys, yanno? Ask the dead bodies in Ukraine, both Ukrainian and Russian if it matters. These psychopaths have a war on humanity and are murdering us. . Because it is currently in Ukraine doesn't mean it's going to stop there, no matter who "wins".

ALL of the global elites control the power. NONE of them are working on behalf of us (humanity). Ukraine is currently nothing more than the battleground where real people are dying while they play for chips.

At what point in your mind does conspiracy theory actually become conspiracy fact? Before or after the world is at war with itself with nuclear explosions all over the globe?

[rosco]

Because Putin is a POS does not make the Putin opposition elites good guys, yanno?

I had to quote this gem from FP because this is exactly what the likes of AJ and Tex completely misunderstand. In their world, Putin is bad so the West is automatically the good guys.

If someone points out the hypocrisy or the evil deeds carried out by the west, which in turn starts a conflict somewhere around the world, Tex and the AJ's of this board automatically assume you're on Putins side.

It's ridiculous and frustrating in equal measures.

[rosco]

Contrary to what our media and the Ukrainian spokesperson have been telling us, the counter offensive gains aren't quite what we're being led to believe. It's worth watching this segment to get a better understanding of the reality on the ground, as of Tuesday night this week.

Fighting is still on going at Robotyne and the city/town we're told that Ukraine have won, is actually a village/hamlet and its not yet fully under their control. It's also not yet at the first line of Russian defences and its cost Ukraine upwards of 50k soldiers to get to this point. We're told that Ukraine are now using their best trained soldiers and most advanced equipment, which were being held back for a defensive breach.

Apparently there's 60k Ukrainian troops looking to advance upon the defensive line in this area, which is held by about 40k Russian defenders. The problem for Ukraine is that the defensive lines are heavily fortified and they have artillery, lancets and air support whilst Ukraine need to cross open ground.

The media are talking up an advance onto Tokmak and then onto the Sea of Azov but the big issue standing in the way of this, is the Ukrainians needing to breach and break through the Russian defences to get to Tokmak first. Looks like a tough fight for everyone ahead and many more sons, fathers and brothers on all sides, never seeing their loved ones again.

https://www.tiktok.com/@warrenthornton62/video/7272837021482208545

[Markje]

The media are talking up an advance onto Tokmak and then onto the Sea of Azov but the big issue standing in the way of this, is the Ukrainians needing to breach and break through the Russian defences to get to Tokmak first. Looks like a tough fight for everyone ahead and many more sons, fathers and brothers on all sides, never seeing their loved ones again.

https://www.tiktok.com/@warrenthornton62/video/7272837021482208545

In Dutch media, tokmak has been all, but taken and the Russian defense broken and on the run. Whilst looking at liveuamap.com I am just not seeing it.

[Texan77]

The media are talking up an advance onto Tokmak and then onto the Sea of Azov but the big issue standing in the way of this, is the Ukrainians needing to breach and break through the Russian defences to get to Tokmak first. Looks like a tough fight for everyone ahead and many more sons, fathers and brothers on all sides, never seeing their loved ones again.

https://www.tiktok.com/@warrenthornton62/video/7272837021482208545

In Dutch media, tokmak has been all, but taken and the Russian defense broken and on the run. Whilst looking at liveuamap.com I am just not seeing it.

Long ways to Tokmak yet. Not in artillery range yet. None of it taking.

[AJ]

Because Putin is a POS does not make the Putin opposition elites good guys, yanno?

I had to quote this gem from FP because this is exactly what the likes of AJ and Tex completely misunderstand. In their world, Putin is bad so the West is automatically the good guys.

If someone points out the hypocrisy or the evil deeds carried out by the west, which in turn starts a conflict somewhere around the world, Tex and the AJ's of this board automatically assume you're on Putins side.

It's ridiculous and frustrating in equal measures.

and your take is equally ridiculous.


1. FP taking my words that way, this time, ,doesnt mean its what i said.
I  clearly said  my thoughts on right wing talking heads , and i meant right wing talking heads.
( in their references to.putin* taking on the global elites*)
Not once did i say  FP said ,or believed anything like that,
i was sharing my thoughts on the  right wing takling heads take, exactly because of the prior reference to the global.elite.


2. Since the chowder heads have,  in not so veiled  effort to defend russias invasion,  spent a year denouncing every usa intervention anywhere no matter how irrelevant,not once just  saying outright  putis an asshat, it speaks volumes.

Those posters are often just as guilty postering that because someones supports ukraine,they are behind and justifiy USA actions past and present

Ive stated countless times here that  i dont condone usa actions in  many cases past or present.

I have also called out the mindless dribble ,like your own, that american troops killed millions* of civilians,for the silly propaganda that it is.
That doesnt mean i feel usa troops should have been there in the.first place.

I cant help those who cant distinguish the difference.

Having been stationed in the europe and  middle east , i can say the media on both sides always get most of it wrong with half stories,half truths or pure fiction.
Always. Both sides .always.

So most takes here , being based mostly  in media coverage from both sides ,is well...

Ive been to ukraine recently, and i still dont know jack.
But i do have an understanding of how the average ukrainian generally* feels.

They feel.if they give up, like georgia.
This will just repeat,over the years  crimea, sea oblasts, central oblast, western oblasts.

Considereing the past, and the strong defense lines built in khersin and zap oblasts that russia has zero claim to,  they have a pretty good take.

Those calling for copiltulation have a valid point,yet its not thier homes lost.

[AJ]

The media are talking up an advance onto Tokmak and then onto the Sea of Azov but the big issue standing in the way of this, is the Ukrainians needing to breach and break through the Russian defences to get to Tokmak first. Looks like a tough fight for everyone ahead and many more sons, fathers and brothers on all sides, never seeing their loved ones again.

https://www.tiktok.com/@warrenthornton62/video/7272837021482208545

In Dutch media, tokmak has been all, but taken and the Russian defense broken and on the run. Whilst looking at liveuamap.com I am just not seeing it.

Funny as ukrainian media doesnt say that. They admit its kilometers of minefields and defense lines ,covered by RF airsupport ,that thier own .troops dont have.

Russian telegram.channels are in a bit of panic the last couple of days
Seems odd as AFU advance is pretty limited in scope and distance.

[Texan77]

What is happening here is Ukraine is making slow progress that Russia does not seem to be able to stop. Russia's problem is logistics. They cannot send more troops because they could not supply them. So, Russia is planning to do another attack in Kharkov region because the supplies line there are much stronger. The strategy is to force Ukraine to remove troops from the south and have to defend the north where Russia has an advantage.

[AvHdB]

The media are talking up an advance onto Tokmak and then onto the Sea of Azov but the big issue standing in the way of this, is the Ukrainians needing to breach and break through the Russian defences to get to Tokmak first. Looks like a tough fight for everyone ahead and many more sons, fathers and brothers on all sides, never seeing their loved ones again.

https://www.tiktok.com/@warrenthornton62/video/7272837021482208545

In Dutch media, tokmak has been all, but taken and the Russian defense broken and on the run. Whilst looking at liveuamap.com I am just not seeing it.

From the various sources that I look at I can see no evidence that Tokmak is being threatened by Ukraine. There is evidence that the Russians are losing area surrounding Bakhmut and Robontyne is in Ukraine hands. It is indeed a slow motion war that is painful to witness, because of the losses on both sides.

[rosco]

What is happening here is Ukraine is making slow progress that Russia does not seem to be able to stop. Russia's problem is logistics. They cannot send more troops because they could not supply them. So, Russia is planning to do another attack in Kharkov region because the supplies line there are much stronger. The strategy is to force Ukraine to remove troops from the south and have to defend the north where Russia has an advantage.

It looks like Russia are happy to defend and destroy everything that comes their way, it's not so much about the offensive but more importantly weakening the threat to a point they might never recover. Ukraine will run out of men, ammunition and machinery at some point, or at least the tip of their spear will be blunt and western aid won't last forever.

It's a battle of attrition and right now Ukraine are being hammered with seriously heavy losses with only a few villages to show for it. They've lost 50,000+ men in the last two months alone, thousands of pieces of donated western machinery and stocks of ammunition....and they're not even at the first line of the Russian defences.

The masters controlling the comedian need to start looking at cease fire and peace agreements because they cant throw Russia out and a whole generation of young men will be lost forever, for the sake of a few towns and villages in front of the first line of defence. It's truly harrowing and I bet the west wouldn't be throwing their own under the bus like this.

[AJ]

The west? Sure they would.
They have thrown thier own under the bus in other countries for purely political reasons for decades.

So has puti, and his staff.
and still is.
Prighozin mutinied for exactly that reason.

[AJ]

What is happening here is Ukraine is making slow progress that Russia does not seem to be able to stop. Russia's problem is logistics. They cannot send more troops because they could not supply them. So, Russia is planning to do another attack in Kharkov region because the supplies line there are much stronger. The strategy is to force Ukraine to remove troops from the south and have to defend the north where Russia has an advantage.

It looks like Russia are happy to defend and destroy everything that comes their way, it's not so much about the offensive but more importantly weakening the threat to a point they might never recover. Ukraine will run out of men, ammunition and machinery at some point, or at least the tip of their spear will be blunt and western aid won't last forever.

It's a battle of attrition and right now Ukraine are being hammered with seriously heavy losses with only a few villages to show for it. They've lost 50,000+ men in the last two months alone, thousands of pieces of donated western machinery and stocks of ammunition....and they're not even at the first line of the Russian defences.

The masters controlling the comedian need to start looking at cease fire and peace agreements because they cant throw Russia out and a whole generation of young men will be lost forever, for the sake of a few towns and villages in front of the first line of defence. It's truly harrowing and I bet the west wouldn't be throwing their own under the bus like this.

50 thousand?
Thats 833 daily

The losses at normandy ,along the coast and the month and a half  it took to finally secure it,
 dint equal.that,
so that seems very very doubtful.
   We have not seen full divisions assualting or any large numbers at any given assault.
Squads, mostly 8 to 10.
. At max 50 troops and a dozen armoured vehicles in a single assault. Normally much less ,1 tank and maybe 2 bmps.
Not waves of tanks or thousands of  troops.

Russian loses are claimed to be 400 a day as well currently .
Not buying that either.

If ukraine had those loses in robotne  and klysheevka  area the russian counterattacks there wouldnt have failed.

If russia had those losses ,coupled with losing wagner pmc, the defense lines would already be breached completely.

Bunch of media hogwash from.both sides.

That doesnt mean there arnt loses,its an on going daily conflict.with modern artillery.

[rosco]

The west? Sure they would.
They have thrown thier own under the bus in other countries for purely political reasons for decades.

I don't recall a time in recent history where the West has thrown their own into a battle they know they probably wont win and see 50,000 dead souls in just two months. The grand total nears a reported 400,000 in around 18 months.

The US lost about 50k over 8 years in Nam and it was considered obscene. No the west don't do to ourselves, what we've just armed Ukraine to do.

[AvHdB]

The west? Sure they would.
They have thrown thier own under the bus in other countries for purely political reasons for decades.

I don't recall a time in recent history where the West has thrown their own into a battle they know they probably wont win and see 50,000 dead souls in just two months. The grand total nears a reported 400,000 in around 18 months.

The US lost about 50k over 8 years in Nam and it was considered obscene. No the west don't do to ourselves, what we've just armed Ukraine to do.

As I have noted before Ukraine has a much smaller military.

But some like to hang onto fallacy.

[Bodine]

50 thousand?
Thats 833 daily

Sure, why not? In 5 months time during the battle of Stalingrad, or an equivalent of 150 days, 750,000 Soviet soldiers died. That's roughly 5,000 dead each day.

The entire battle of Stalingrad, whether you agree with this report or not, caused a whopping 2.2 million deaths total.

https://uca.edu/cahss/files/2020/07/2016-11-Liddil-stalingrad-is-hell.pdf

[rosco]

I've been listening to a number of reporters talking about Robotyne and they say that Ukraine keep assaulting and taking most of the village before the Russians send in a barrage of artillery, rockets and bombs, destroying men and vehicles before counter attacking it. This has been going on for some time, back and forth.

They also talk about Ukraine needing to hit deep into the South towards the coast in the next 2-4 weeks before the rain comes otherwise they'll be stuck on the front with little chance of retreating.

The problem Ukraine have is that these villages being assaulted aren't even at the first line of defence. You'll have no doubt read about the defensive systems the Russians have in place and they talk about the Komodo dragon defence.

The first line is full of dragons teeth, anti tank trenches and mine fields but the Ukrainians still haven't reached it. They're still fighting in the forward defensive zone, which is designed to break up the attacks.

However, the plan once the Ukrainians do break through and commit numbers is the trap the Russians have set. Russia will only have around 500 troops holding off 20k+ Ukrainians with artillery and aircraft support. The first line of defence is meant to be broken.

Should Ukraine break through this zone, the Russians will retreat and the Ukrainians will pile through and assault the second line. The Russians will hold them in this zone as they commit numbers, fighting from the second line of defence before raining hell down on the counter offensive stuck in the first zone.

It's almost Roman like warfare but as it stands, Ukraine are still suffering heavy losses fighting over villages in the grey zone so we're yet to see it in action. So let's wait and see how it plays out and what will our media do if Ukraine breach the first line?

I suspect they might start to celebrate a little too early.

[andrewfi]

Many western sources are celebrating too early. Whether through a lack of understanding, based upon lack of knowledge, or something less honest is sometimes hard to tell.

The thing is that in order to succeed the Ukrainian forces have only a very limited range of options and the Robotyne route is one of the best options. They go there because they must if they are to achieve the strategic objective of breaking the Crimea land bridge.

The Russian forces know all this. It was no secret. It is obvious. So their defences were built to account for the near inevitable.

For their part, the Russians seem to have slightly altered their strategy to account for the Ukrainian use of men and materiel. It is even more profitable to keep the Ukrainian forces in the external filtering zone, in this case Robotyne and just keep on killing them without allowing them to proceed.

In essence, it seems that the Russians were taken aback by the weakness of the Ukrainian forces but have chosen to take advantage of it knowing that until the Ukrainian government gives up on its stated military objectives the Russian forces will simply keep on destroying the Ukrainian army. They may choose to fall back toward Tokmak, still ahead of the first line of prepared defences and the killing process will continue.

For the Russians, at this point, the goal is not to capture territory but to demilitarise Ukraine. That goal is being attained quite nicely right now.

Of course, Russian men are dying and being wounded, but the ratio is so profitable that it is considered more profitable to hold the Ukrainian forces at bay than to allow them into the killing zone of the echeloned defences further back. Remember the Russian strategy has always, during this conflict, been to reduce manpower losses to their forces to the minimum.

[AvHdB]

Of course, only the severely hampered would discount the possibility of more than one point of origin for attacks with more than one target area where the targets are at quite some distance from each other.

There are some options that can easily be discounted for reasons of geography. The targeting of Pskov does rather suggest a point of origin that is not in Ukraine and practicality suggests that the point of origin may well be located in Latvia or Estonia.

It is not possible to make a conclusion at this time, but we can fairly safely discount Ukraine as the point of origin for the strikes in Pskov region. In addition, the lie of the land, or in this case water, makes a route that crosses lake Peipsi worthy of consideration. That's because drones flying very low over level water would be very hard to spot by electronic or physical means.

While not a big fan of CNN the below link provides additional information. In June I recall reading Ukraine was developing its own home grown drone. Guess they work.