Ukrainian counter offensive

[rosco]

So it appears that the much anticipated counter offensive has begun albeit with limited success so far. NATO have trained, armed, supplied, briefed and given our pawns the intelligence they need in order to fight Russia. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out and from a personal perspective, the Ukrainian men fighting for their country have my support but the larger narrative in play doesn't sit well with me.

Anyway, here's the latest from what we're being told.

[rosco]

From the BBC.

Army head says
The "much-heralded" Ukrainian counter-offensive is beginning, a former head of the British Army has told the BBC.

General Richard Dannatt, who served as chief of the general staff between 2006 and 2009, says the flooding of the Dnipro river following the destruction of the Kakhovka means there is no way the Ukrainians can advance through Kherson to Russian-occupied Crimea.

Speaking to BBC Radio Norfolk, he says Ukraine's counter-offensive is starting more slowly, probing for weaknesses in the Russian line to be attacked by units armed with Western-supplied tanks and other heavy weapons.

Dannat said he thinks a successful push from Ukraine could "break the morale of the Russian army".

Quote Message: The average Russian soldier, frankly, just doesn't want to be there. He's poorly trained, he is poorly equipped and he's poorly led. It could well be that some decisive blows against Russian units could see the Ukrainians breaking through in a fairly spectacular fashion."
The average Russian soldier, frankly, just doesn't want to be there. He's poorly trained, he is poorly equipped and he's poorly led. It could well be that some decisive blows against Russian units could see the Ukrainians breaking through in a fairly spectacular fashion."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65851660

[rosco]

From the BBC.

Speaking to Radio 4's Today, Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, says: "The Ukrainians clearly determined now is the point where they can start to try and displace the Russians from their defensive positions."

He also says that this action will take months.

"The Ukrainians will need to force the Russians to commit reserves in different directions. ​Then they can judge where the vulnerable points are to break through these defence lines.

"That will be difficult and will cost a lot of casualties. But if they can, that creates the opportunity for a breakthrough of exploitation."

Watling thinks that the West was late on providing the military equipment, he says, "A couple of months were wasted."

[rosco]

From Sky News;

Counteroffensive has only had mixed success so far - but initial losses 'don't represent full Ukrainian capabilities'
Ukraine's so-called counteroffensive that is widely believed to have begun on Sunday has consisted of three major operations so far, which have had "differential outcomes", according to a new report.
One of them - an attack near Orikhiv in western Zaporozhye overnight Wednesday into Thursday - was "limited but still significant", according to the Institute of War (ISW) think-tank.
It saw Ukraine lose some of the Western military vehicles it used, with Russia reported to have regained its positions in the area by the end of Thursday.
On the Russian side, the ISW says the communications response to the attack was "uncharacteristically coherent" and "relatively consistent with available visual evidence".
Normally Russian messaging is "highly chaotic and incoherent", it says, particularly when its forces are taken by surprise on the battlefield – not giving "propaganda apparatus" time to "develop a clear line".
But it says: "By contrast, the Russian responses to this attack suggest that Russian forces defended in the way that they had prepared to… giving sources a rhetorical line to coalesce around".
The report stresses however that Thursday's operation "does not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive".
It says the loss of Western equipment is "not an indicator of the future of the counteroffensive" and we should not "exaggerate the impact of initial losses".

[rosco]

So still lots of western/pro Ukrainian feel good storied coming even out, with the initial losses but its early days. I wonder if it's Bakhmut style propaganda 2.0.

Russia has reported that they've repelled a number of Ukrainian attacks, killing thousands of Ukrainian troops and destroying 100's of pieces of tanks and armoured vehicles, including lots of western supplied military equipment. It sounds likes the Russian defences are well organised and currently as working as planned, which was going to be the big test. There's quite a bit out there to support these claims including western analysts admitting as much.

I feel that this offensive and its success or failure could be the turning point in the conflict. With Ukraine on the march, it's their turn to attack fortified positions and should they fail whilst losing lots of western equipment and heavy casualties, you've got to wonder if they can defend against the Russians following a retreat. Will the West continue to dig deep to support the war or is it shit or bust?

Conversely, if they over run the Russians, what do they do next?

[Markje]

Although the counter-offensive is necessary if they want to be their own country much longer, I have a feeling it will be Ukraine paying the Reaper this time in a big way.

Offensive games are always more costly than defense.

[Manny]

Medvedev made a comment on Twitter recently:

The Kiev clown regime has to advance. They've got to work off the dough and weaponry received from the West. The masters' disappointment can cost Zelenskiy & Co not only their offices, but life itself.

The entire cocaine gang will be easily dumped all at once: the Washington masters will order some radical scumbags to do the druggy in for high treason against Ukraine, and betrayal of Bandera's cause, and then to hang him and his henchmen upside down, just like Duce and his fascist junta were once hung at the Piazzale Loreto in Milan.

So, the ukronazis have the only way out: to go all the way through, sending thousands of mobilised servicemen to their death.

Russia's mission is to first stop the enemy, and then to start the offensive so as to not only liberate Russian lands and protect our people, but to totally subvert the nazi regime in Kiev.

A bit of reading between the lines is always necessary with his tweets.

[rosco]

Lot's has happened over the last 18 months which has raised an eyebrow or two but I think this is a completely different test for the Ukrainian armed forces. Having read up about how meticulous the Russians have been, digging in their defensive lines and fortifying their positions it would be surprising if the Ukrainians simply charged through.

We've been told about how the Russians were held up, losing and running out of ideas but it appears that defending the territories in the disputed lands (as per Putins speeches) and preparing for the western supported counter offensive was the priority, rather than marching on to Berlin and London as Tex seems to think.

It could be a master stroke of strategy because as Mark says, the offensive game is always more costly than defence and with the West seemingly inpatient about Ukraine and their counter offensive, having ploughed all our resources into it, they have no option but to attack, even if it is a suicide run. Troops and heavy armour driving forward over open ground heading into heavily fortified defences sounds to me, a bit like shooting fish in a barrel? Russia would no longer be looking at attacking dug in troops and their air defence systems but using artillery and air power to pick off targets one at a time, just as it happened in an eastern city outside Donetsk early this week.

https://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,29799.msg547354.html#msg547354

[andrewfi]

From the BBC.

Speaking to Radio 4's Today, Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, says: "The Ukrainians clearly determined now is the point where they can start to try and displace the Russians from their defensive positions."

He also says that this action will take months.

"The Ukrainians will need to force the Russians to commit reserves in different directions. ​Then they can judge where the vulnerable points are to break through these defence lines.

"That will be difficult and will cost a lot of casualties. But if they can, that creates the opportunity for a breakthrough of exploitation."

Watling thinks that the West was late on providing the military equipment, he says, "A couple of months were wasted."

While the entire operation (if it actually gets going) might take months, the initial few days are key. If the Ukrainians are unable to break through the initial lines of defence at a reasonable cost in terms of manpower and equipment, then the rest of the adventure becomes much more dangerous.

Right now, on Friday, we can look back and see that the offensive started in earnest on Sunday, and the losses have been huge. The initial lines of defence are intact at almost all points, and nowhere have the Russians been forced back to echeloned defence lines. That's all not very good.

It is quite simple if the Ukrainians cannot penetrate the defences, then nothing happens apart from death and destruction to the attackers. The Russians have time to assess where they need to provide support and can enable that support. If the Ukrainians decide to withdraw and try another point along the defensive line then the process of loss starts all over again.

[rosco]

Ukraine has five weeks to make a breakthrough before it faces an issue, expert says.


"One of the big lessons from the Vietnam War and Iraq is that if you're not achieving tactical objectives, if the public can't see you're being successful, casualties become a problem not just for the armed forces but for the people back home.

"All the Russians have to do is not lose. Ukrainians have to show they have had battlefield success by the time the autumn mud season starts in four to five weeks.

"If the Ukrainians haven't burst through the Russian frontline to somewhere in the south east [by then], I think there's going to be a bit of an issue."

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-possible-reason-putin-is-letting-wagner-boss-sit-easy-attacks-near-nato-border-worrying-putin-to-visit-china-12541713

This all ties in with the rumours suggesting that the West will continue to bank roll Ukraines war against Russia for another 6 months and then its round the tables for peace talks.

If Russia continue to win as they're currently doing, Ukraine will have very little left in 6 months time and the western gravy train stops. That doesn't give Z much leverage.

[andrewfi]

Tell me again why Russia needs to engage in 'peace talks'?

It is the collective west that needs them. From a game theory perspective, we can understand that Russia does not need them.

That's not to say that they would refuse to engage with the policy makers, which means talks would not be with the Ukrainian leadership, even if they were at the same table.

[rosco]

Tell me again why Russia needs to engage in 'peace talks'?

It is the collective west that needs them. From a game theory perspective, we can understand that Russia does not need them.

That's not to say that they would refuse to engage with the policy makers, which means talks would not be with the Ukrainian leadership, even if they were at the same table.

I don't think Russia needs peace talks but I don't think they enjoy fighting their Ukrainian cousins or enjoy killing them. If Z offered peace & security in the previously agreed autonomous regions, Crimea and no NATO membership then I think it would stop tomorrow.

That said, the western well is running dry and Russia just need to wait it out, to become the winners.

[andrewfi]

They don't enjoy what's going on, but, in a change from a few months ago, this is now seen by the state and people as a campaign in a larger action defending against the collective west. Something that they seemed not to have appreciated at the start.

After all, without the active support in all areas of the operation, of NATO and the governments of the states comprising NATO, this would have been done and dusted more than a year ago.

[Orchid]

https://ria.ru/20230728/obstanovka-1886438416.html?utm_source=news.mail.ru&utm_medium=informer&utm_campaign=rian_partners

How the Armed Forces of Ukraine overslept the Russian offensive

MOSCOW, July 28 - RIA Novosti, Andrey Kots. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is developing very slowly. In most directions, it was not possible to reach even the first line of defense. Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces conducted an operation in an unexpected direction for Kiev.

Pain points

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are still trying to enter the left bank of the Dnieper near Antonovsky Bridge. The landing is partially destroyed in boats, then by artillery strikes along the coast. The rest are trying to gain a foothold on the bridgehead.
It is reported from the field that there is no massive transfer of troops in this area. The main events do not take place here.
The Zaporozhye section of the front is a priority. Three "pain points" have been pressing there for seven weeks. So far unsuccessfully. In the area of the Kakhovsky reservoir, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still trampling under Pyatihatki. Heavy defensive battles continue in the Orekhovskoye direction, but there is no serious advance of the Ukrainian infantry.
The same goes on the so-called Vremyevsk ledge on the border with the DPR. Here the main clashes are near Urozhayny.
Near Donetsk unchanged. The Russian army is gradually surrounding Avdiivka and conducting street fighting in Maryinka. According to the Ministry of Defense, in recent days the troops have operated near the settlements of Veseloe, Bogdanovka, Predtechino, Belaya Gora and Dyleevka. Ukrainian losses - more than 160 people, several pieces of equipment.
Near Artemovsky, the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied some heights near Kleshcheevka, which allowed them to enter the village from the southwest. There are fighting, no one controls the entire settlement.
According to eyewitnesses, Ukrainian artillerymen actively use cluster munitions there, including those recently received from the United States.
To the south, the Veseushniks became more active at Andreevka. Kiev has already announced the capture of the village, the Russian military denies it.
"Under the cover of artillery fire, their infantry approaches our positions and starts close combat," says an officer of the 1st Army Corps with the call sign Klim. - We answer as much as we can, but we are worse with the counter-battery struggle. The heights around Kleshcheevka passed from hand to hand several times. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fixed here, they will be able to bypass Artemovsk from the south. At the same time, from the north, in the Soledar area, their offensive stopped.

Response to the counteroffensive

On most of the line of contact, Russian units are in defense. But they attack in some places.
They are moving forward on a wide front from Kreminna to the border with the Belgorod region. In the Krasnolimansky direction, they made serious progress, imputing a battle to the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Torskoe. Near Kupyansk, advanced units reached the outskirts of the city and took control of the Molchanovo railway station important for logistics
According to the Ministry of Defense, on the Kremennaya - Svatovo section, Russian troops crossed the Zherobets River and occupied heights on the west bank, expanding and deepening the bridgehead with an area of about 35 square kilometers.
They are stepping on Sergeevka, Nadia and Novoegorovka. In addition, the assault units occupied several strongholds in the area of Karmazinovka. The command transfers reserves there to consolidate success.
The Ukrainian General Staff, carried away by its own offensive, overslept the counterattack. And he admitted the problem with a squeak. The speaker of the eastern group Sergei Cherevaty justified himself by the fact that Moscow had focused at least 100,000 soldiers on the Kupyansky and Krasnolimansky directions. And although these data are not confirmed, the fact remains that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost initiative on this section of the front.
According to the estimates of the Ukrainian General Staff, the main task of Russia here is to reach the Oskol reservoir. The East Bank is an ideal defensive line. If it is occupied, the army will create a serious buffer zone between the Kiev-controlled part of the Kharkov region and the territory of the LPR.
The offensive on Kupyansk pursues the same goal - to form a security zone along the border of the Belgorod region, depriving the Kiev regime of the opportunity to shell Russian settlements.
West of the Oskol reservoir - Raisins. From this city there is a direct road to the Slavic-kramator agglomeration. It is in Kramatorsk that the headquarters of the Vostok group operating in Donbass is located. Its destruction or seizure can seriously disorganize the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, active actions in the west of the LPR and in the Kharkov region force Kiev to transfer troops from other parts of the front here. First of all, Zaporozhye and Artemov. This slows down the already not very rapid Ukrainian offensive.

Different approach

Expectations from the operation diverged from reality. They are looking for explanations in the West. Increasingly, they express dissatisfaction with the ally on whom billions are spent.
Thus, the German edition of Bild, which read the Bundeswehr report, explains the current situation primarily not by the specific mistakes of the command, but by the "Ukrainian combat doctrine". The more experience a serviceman has gained in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the higher his rank, the more difficult it is for him to learn the principles of NATO, the newspaper notes.
Hence the paradox: young soldiers trained in Europe follow the orders of those who are unable to act according to Western manuals. According to Bild, "Ukrainian officers cross out" the combat training provided by NATO countries.
And increasingly, analysts draw attention to the fact that NATO's developments are not always suitable for this conflict. Moreover, the West needs to learn from Ukraine. It is unlikely, for example, that Dutch troops would be able to sit for months in damp trenches under constant artillery and aviation fire. And the Americans - to storm a well-fortified line of defense without air support, on which their military doctrine is tied. Apparently, the bet on Western weapons and tactics once again played an evil joke with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[Texan77]

Ukraine has five weeks to make a breakthrough before it faces an issue, expert says.

"One of the big lessons from the Vietnam War and Iraq is that if you're not achieving tactical objectives, if the public can't see you're being successful, casualties become a problem not just for the armed forces but for the people back home.

Yea don't you think Russians are seeing that Russia is not achieving tactical objectives in this three-day war. Right wing Putin supporter are getting more critical and having to be arrested instead of support Putin. In some cases, they are having accidents. It not going well on the Russian side so we will see. Remember last year at this time Russia was going to mobilize 300,000 men, pull out all the stops and capture much of Ukraine and end the war in the winter. I do not think they met many of their objectives.

I think there is more than five weeks of fighting in southern Ukraine. Much of fighting is being done in Southern Ukraine which is the driest part of the country. This so-called expert did not seem to take into account different parts of the country has different amounts of rain fall. The big Russia advance in the north with 100,000 men and 900 tanks has been stopped also and is now in retreat given back the land they just captured back. I do not think they are going to be losing any land there, but their northern offensive seems to be failing.

Official inflation rate in Russia is 4 per cent but I am reading the real inflation rate is closer to 60 per cent. Putin not gaining ground in Ukraine and showing some victories before his reelection may not be doing much for his popularity.  Now he needs to give the population some economic reason to want to vote for him, but the country is not at a point they can offer a new social program and support the war. Russia's far right wants new leadership. They claiming Putin is "incompetent." (They are right, he is)

Most Americans do not even know if the war in Ukraine is still going on or not much less care about it. It is not a big political issue here. In the wars Andrew mentions US troops were involved and the lasted more than ten years. In Iraq we achieved our original goals though the final outcome was less than we desired. I would not say Saddam Hussan won. Viet Nam took the north Vietnamese twenty years. We are not near that yet.

Andrew you right. I do not see why either side would want to really have talk about peace at this point. Neither have achieved their goals and neither is spent. Putin claims he wants peace talks but only if Ukraine gives him all of his objectives. Not really anything that is negotiating more like a series of demands. It is only so he can tell China and India he wants peace without really wanting it.

Because of stopping the shipment of the wheat this year, the number of nations from Africa that show up to Russia's conference was way down. Russia losing support in a number of African nations reflecting Russia declining role in the world because of the war in Ukraine. Wheat prices are much higher now and poorer African nations unable to afford the new price. Russia willing to send more wheat but it only makes up for about 10 per cent of what was going to be exported from Ukraine. Mosty African nations not excited. If you starve your allies, you may lose them. 

[rosco]

The media have started shifting to expectation management when it comes to the greatly anticipated counter offensive but it appears that western donors are now following. Even the most pro Ukraine MSM platforms have had to cover the huge losses and stagnant offensive but today's post from Sky News is a classic;

Weeds and shrubs causing slow progress of Ukrainian troops.

Weeds and shrubs left to grow since the war started are likely to be one factor contributing to the slow progress of Ukrainian troops, according to the UK's Ministry of Defence.

In its daily update, the ministry said: "Undergrowth regrowing across the battlefields of southern Ukraine is likely one factor contributing to the generally slow progress of combat in the area.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-possible-reason-putin-is-letting-wagner-boss-sit-easy-attacks-near-nato-border-worrying-putin-to-visit-china-12541713

Now I've heard of dogs eating homework but this is getting silly.

[BC]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

[rosco]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

BC it works both ways.

Ukrainian troops on the offensive have more cover, so it can also help them. The reality is, we've all been hyped up for a mega offensive and some big wins but it's simply not happened. Tens of thousands of dead Ukrainians, hundreds if not thousands of lost pieces of weaponry and vehicles and we're now using bushes and grass as an excuse. And whilst this is happening, the Russians are taking lots of ground in the north without complaining about plants.

Thanks for your opinion on the matter though.

[Faux Pas]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

Well, if the truth doesn't fit the narrative you can always make sh!t up

[BC]

Thanks for your opinion on the matter though.

Anytime, rosco.

[Bodine]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

Sheesh.

If true, they must seriously be just a bunch of idiots for planning a counter-offensive under such easily explainable condition.

They should’ve had you in all the planning sessions BC. LMAO. It could’ve saved a lot of dead Ukrainians and saved US taxpayers tens of millions again if not hundreds.

Imagine that.

[Bodine]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

Well, if the truth doesn't fit the narrative you can always make sh!t up

It must be that 'making sh!t up' is the 'new' definition of 'fact' for BC?

Otherwise, western and Ukrainian war room generals really are reeking idiots for not knowing seasonal foliage, or lack thereof, is the key to these war games.  Ukes are screwed when no foliage, screwed when they're present.

[Faux Pas]

rosco,

foliage is an issue in winter and summer.  In winter, it is sparse, making finding places to hide more difficult in a defensive posture.  When foliage grows back in spring and summer, it makes it more difficult from an offensive POV, as the enemy can be lurking behind each bush.  Russian troops are in a defensive posture, so inherit this advantage until the fall.

Makes perfect sense that both variants have been reported as impediments.

Well, if the truth doesn't fit the narrative you can always make sh!t up

It must be that 'making sh!t up' is the 'new' definition of 'fact' for BC?

Otherwise, western and Ukrainian war room generals really are reeking idiots for not knowing seasonal foliage, or lack thereof, is the key to these war games.  Ukes are screwed when no foliage, screwed when they're present.

   Actually no, that's always been the MO for BC. Old hat really. Use to he'd make it up, then scour the net for something fact checked by dubious sources as CNN, Yahoo or Snopes and hold it up as proof that his fairy tale is truth. Charts and graphs are his specialty.

From his declaration it's the Ukrainian military's botanist that will direct the coming offensive. Perhaps they are awaiting Western weapons and military combat vehicles that can sustain the heavy damage from bushes, shrubs and other foliage?

[rosco]

From his declaration it's the Ukrainian military's botanist that will direct the coming offensive. Perhaps they are awaiting Western weapons and military combat vehicles that can sustain the heavy damage from bushes, shrubs and other foliage?

We should have been sending lawn mowers, hedge trimmers and gallons of weed B gone rather than tanks, armoured vehicles and long range rocket systems.

How did this unforeseen obstacle only catch us out now? 

[B.B.]

Ukraine has five weeks to make a breakthrough before it faces an issue, expert says.

You have this backwards.  Ukraine is in a fight for its life.  They can't just fcuk off out  of Saigon or Baghdad.  They are in it up to their necks.

Russia, otoh, is continuing to fight a two week war that they aren't exactly winning. 

"All the Russians have to do is not lose. Ukrainians have to show they have had battlefield success by the time the autumn mud season starts in four to five weeks.

To the contrary, it's the Ukrainians who have to 'not lose.'  So long as they don't, they still have a country. 

"If the Ukrainians haven't burst through the Russian frontline to somewhere in the south east [by then], I think there's going to be a bit of an issue."

If Ukraine turns into a meatgrinder for Russia's sons, that's going to start to be an issue for Vladdy-baby.

If Russia continue to win as they're currently doing, Ukraine will have very little left in 6 months time and the western gravy train stops. That doesn't give Z much leverage.

Russia is not, in fact, "winning."  Neither side is, but the Ukrainians are the ones who can win by not losing.  Russia has lost approximately 50% of its tank fleet in less than a year and a half.   They don't sent their most modern tanks anymore because they lose them.  If this is "winning" Russia cannot afford it.

B/B