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Author Topic: The US military is shrinking  (Read 1861 times)

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Offline Lord of the Dance

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The US military is shrinking
« on: January 16, 2023, 10:05:10 PM »
I've been following this guy for a while now. A few months behind on his videos, but this one is both interesting and disheartening. Our military is shrinking and when you listen to what he's saying, you can understand exactly why.

"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Orchid

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2023, 11:04:04 PM »
US military is not shrinking.
It’s the strongest army in the world.
US uses the model of professional army.
Such model does not require patriotism or certain sexual orientation.
It does require vaccination and emotional stability.

Questions that he raises are more related to society rather than to army.

Offline Orchid

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2023, 11:21:47 PM »
In contrary to US model of professional army, Putin is working on creating a military society.
That is one of the reasons why this war is slow.
He is restructuring army and  is changing the law.
Every man is Russia must serve 2 years of his life in army at this time.
There will be a law soon that every man will go through 6 months of military training on a regular basis after that.
Military society model is much stronger and more effective than professional army only.

I was surprised that Putin even utilizes a private army which is Wagner Group.
But if you go back to Russian history, you will find the story of “oprichnikov” which was a private army of Ivan Grozny in 1565-1572.


Offline Contrarian

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2023, 10:05:26 AM »
I've been following this guy for a while now. A few months behind on his videos, but this one is both interesting and disheartening. Our military is shrinking and when you listen to what he's saying, you can understand exactly why.



Enlistment is down, because the traditional men who were in the military are rural Conservative white men, and now they're pushing the "woke" ideology which is extremely foolish. Why should heterosexual whites want to put up with this BS?

The requirement to get vaccinated has been eliminated, so they've solved that problem. I wonder if they're going to let those who were kicked out back in? I wonder if they will want to come back in, since they're still pushing the other garbage? The key point he makes, is that if America is a racist, evil country, then why would anyone want to join the military?

But actually it's good for America in the long run, because if the US military cannot function and continues to lose due to politics, then eventually civilians will turn their attention from overseas conflicts, to getting rid of the political elites who have gotten this country into the mess we are in.


Offline BC

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2023, 10:37:50 AM »
Several studies show when national unemployment is high more folks join the military.  Our unemployment has been very low for some time now, making it more difficult for the services to recruit the numbers they need.  Sure, it's not the only factor, but likely the largest.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/20/army-recruiting-crisis-shortage/10098673002/


Offline Lord of the Dance

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2023, 11:46:15 AM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).
"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Contrarian

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2023, 12:10:16 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Exactly!

+1

Offline BC

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2023, 03:31:32 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Just guessing, but wouldn't this affect retention as well (those that enlisted and renewed their obligation).

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/26/army-having-no-issue-retaining-soldiers-amid-crisis-recruiting-new-ones.html

Do any studies back up your assertion, or is this your opinion alone?  Or do only democrats serve?

Who the CIC was when I enlisted had no bearing on my decision.

Offline Contrarian

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2023, 04:29:10 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Just guessing, but wouldn't this affect retention as well (those that enlisted and renewed their obligation).

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/26/army-having-no-issue-retaining-soldiers-amid-crisis-recruiting-new-ones.html

Do any studies back up your assertion, or is this your opinion alone?  Or do only democrats serve?

Who the CIC was when I enlisted had no bearing on my decision.


I don't recall it mattering to me either but it does for many parents. There wasn't a recent debacle like Afghanistan either so this is probably a moot point.

Offline yankee

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2023, 05:02:48 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Just guessing, but wouldn't this affect retention as well (those that enlisted and renewed their obligation).

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/26/army-having-no-issue-retaining-soldiers-amid-crisis-recruiting-new-ones.html

Do any studies back up your assertion, or is this your opinion alone?  Or do only democrats serve?

Who the CIC was when I enlisted had no bearing on my decision.


I don't recall it mattering to me either but it does for many parents. There wasn't a recent debacle like Afghanistan either so this is probably a moot point.

My grandson is soon approaching draft age.  I have had serious conversations with him with regards to enlistment.  I have a total disability from agent orange.  Given the current administrations disregard for untested chemicals and vaccines I have (I hope) persuaded him not to choose the military at this point.
What is worse than not being able to get what you don't even want?

Offline Lord of the Dance

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2023, 06:36:03 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Just guessing, but wouldn't this affect retention as well (those that enlisted and renewed their obligation).

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/26/army-having-no-issue-retaining-soldiers-amid-crisis-recruiting-new-ones.html

Do any studies back up your assertion, or is this your opinion alone?  Or do only democrats serve?

Who the CIC was when I enlisted had no bearing on my decision.

Just my opinion based on things I've seen, read and heard from soldiers who appear entirely disenfranchised with military leadership, from the top down. Morale seems to be critically low. Take for example these sailors who decided to kill themselves. People are getting out in droves.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/4-navy-sailors-assigned-facility-die-apparent-suicide-weeks-growing-co-rcna59266
"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Texan77

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2023, 09:55:31 PM »
The biggest problem the USA military faces with recruitment is young men have other opportunities that offer more. Who wants to give up all your rights, freedoms, family life, and get lower pay to be in the military. It is the same problem no matter who the president is.
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

Offline Manny

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2023, 04:49:11 AM »
It’s the strongest army in the world.

The Taliban would disagree.
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Look what the American media makes some people believe:
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Offline Contrarian

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2023, 05:48:57 AM »
It’s the strongest army in the world.

The Taliban would disagree.

Winning territory in a military conflict is one thing, keeping it for decades is entirely different, especially with an incompetent fool as the CIC.

Let's see what happens to areas taken by force by Russia over time after Russias economy implodes.

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2023, 06:36:41 AM »
Enlistment is down, because the traditional men who were in the military are rural Conservative white men, and now they're pushing the "woke" ideology which is extremely foolish. Why should heterosexual whites want to put up with this BS?

Bingo. It's the woke, trans-faggotry.  It's the Left that sees the American flag and thinks it's the flag of the enemy.  But the guys who would sign up look that the (now former) vax req't, and why would they go sign up for the current nonsense?

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Offline BC

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2023, 07:27:38 AM »
People are getting out in droves.

Not according to the military.  All branches are exceeding their retention/reenlistment goals, and numbers are up from past years.



https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11274.pdf


Offline Lord of the Dance

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2023, 10:36:29 PM »
People are getting out in droves.

Not according to the military.  All branches are exceeding their retention/reenlistment goals, and numbers are up from past years.



https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11274.pdf

Tough Military Recruiting Environment is About More than Low Unemployment, Experts Say

When it comes to military recruiting, economist Beth Asch is an optimist. Asch has been studying military recruiting for almost 40 years, during which she has seen good recruiting years and bad ones.

Each time a new challenge arises, it’s treated like a crisis, she said during a Heritage Foundation discussion Tuesday. In the 1990s, recruiting was affected by the dot com boom when more people were being hired by the growing tech industry, Asch said in a November interview with USNI News. In 2005, a stronger economy and the war in Iraq led to less interest in joining the services.

But history shows that recruiting challenges can be overcome, Asch said, suggesting that the current recruiting issues are no different.

“Invariably, it can take a while,” she said. “It can take a lot of resources, it will involve mistakes, and it can be quite costly. And that has to be reckoned with but I am optimistic that things will get back on track. I mean they have to.”

Top military leaders have suggested that the strong job market might be the cause for the current recruiting woes, suggesting it can be difficult to attract talent who also have opportunities to work for large box stores like Amazon.

But a lack of recruits eligible to serve and decreased trust in the military, instead of a strong job market, are likely the leading factors for recruitment troubles, the top Marine Corps officer suggested in a November article.

“The Marine Corps is struggling to recruit talented young Americans in a competitive economy and from a society increasingly distant from the military,” Marine Corps commandant Gen. David Berger wrote in a piece for Naval Institute’s Proceedings. “And we are not alone; all the services are experiencing similar challenges. This concerns me both as the Commandant and as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, because the Marine Corps relies on the other services, and they rely on us, across a web of interdependencies.”

The Marine Corps met its Fiscal Year 2022 recruiting goals, bringing on 33,210 enlisted active-duty Marines. But Berger, and other military leaders, have raised concerns that the branches won’t continue to meet those goals.

The Navy, which just barely met its recruitment goals in FY 2022, raised its age limit for new recruits last month as one way to increase the pool for eligibility. The sea service is also offering enlistment bonuses, a tactic the Army and Air Force also use.

A low unemployment rate in the United States has been one of the most cited reasons for the more difficult recruitment environment, but Berger argues that while it might be a contributing factor, it deserves less of the blame.

“Yet, some of our deepest challenges are chronic, indicating that the strength of the economy may be less critical than commonly thought,” Berger wrote. “For example, the Marine Corps has struggled—in good economic times and bad—to produce and retain an adequate number of pilots, even for the newest, most modern aircraft.”

The commandant, in his article, also evaluates the shrinking pool of eligible candidates. Most recent numbers suggest that 77 percent of Americans between the ages of 17 and 21 are not eligible to serve in the military, retired Rear Adm. Robert Besal, who works with advocacy group Mission Readiness, told USNI News.

The top three reasons for ineligibility are failure to pass entrance exams, health concerns and prior criminal activity, including drug abuse. One of the main health concerns is childhood obesity, which Besal said counts for 30 percent of those who are ineligible.

Mission Readiness is attempting to fix the pool of eligibility by trying to get funding for educational and nutrition programs, Besal said, but that requires getting congressional and other legislative officials to think in the long term.

Programs that would help childhood obesity and failure to pass entrance exams should start with children as young as three years old, Besal said. But the payoff will not be for another 15 years, when that child becomes eligible for service.

But while Mission Readiness looks at what can be done for the future, there are limited options for the services right now to fix the ineligibility problem, Berger wrote.

“Military leaders have few levers to pull to increase the number of Americans eligible for service, and the biggest and most immediate lever—lowering standards—is not one military leaders or most Americans want,” he wrote. “To effect enduring change requires understanding and addressing the declining propensity to serve.”

The economy can contribute to recruitment challenges, but it is a cyclical factor, Asch, who is a senior economist at RAND, told USNI News

Historically, when there is low employment, it’s harder for the military to recruit, she said in an interview Nov. 2. This could be the case for the military right now, but it’s all speculation, she said.

“I don’t think it’s an either-or situation,” Asch said. “I think it’s a matter of understanding the array of factors that could be having an effect and then teasing out their relative importance and for what particular groups, under what circumstances.”

Berger also points out that recruitment challenges persist even when the unemployment rate is higher, which generally is associated with better recruiting, suggesting that the economy, while a factor, is not the sole cause for recruiting woes.

Berger pointed to a lack of trust in the military, a factor that Besal also highlighted.
The military used to be one of the most trusted institutions, Besal said.

“There’s been, I don’t want to just call them all scandals, but there’s been some missteps whether in the active force, whether individual or collective, and some things that should have never occurred,” Besal said. “And so I think that’s something that really will have to take a strain inside the service to straighten that up. Because I think that you’re gonna get fewer people listening to you when you make this plea.”

People have inaccurate views about the military, which does not help the trust issue, Asch said. As an example, people do not always know the difference between the branches of the military or what it means to be a noncommissioned officer.

“People have a lot of ignorance, and that’s increased,” she said.

That ignorance is similar between those who enlist and those who do not, but the difference is that those who choose military service have positive values associated with the military.

In Berger’s piece, he points to a shrinking pool of people who have familial ties to the services.

“A growing percentage of those serving in uniform have a close relative who also served (or is currently serving),” Berger wrote. “In other words, those who are most familiar with the military are most likely to enlist.”

This does play out in recruiting, Asch said, where many recruits do have a family connection.

However, this could hurt the military, as the Military Family Advisory Network’s most recent survey found that military members are increasingly less likely to recommend a military career to a family member.

There was an 11 percent drop between 2019 and 2021 among family members who would recommend service, said Shannon Razsadin, president and executive director of the Military Family Advisory Network.

Approximately 62.9 percent of military participants surveyed by Military Family Advisory Network would recommend military service to family members, according to the 2021 annual survey. That’s down from 74.5 percent in 2019.

The drop is attributed to low pay, leadership challenges, frequent moves that make it difficult on families, and military benefits that no longer outweigh the challenges that come with service, Razsadin said.

But Berger points out that the pool of eligible military recruits could shrink to those with a family connection if the military does not do more to reach out to those unfamiliar with the military, and the family pool could be shrinking as well.

“Definitely you’re pulling from a smaller pool, because when you had the draft, you know, everyone had the requirement of service,” Razsadin said. “And so these are people who are choosing to make the sacrifices, they’re choosing to serve. And so, of course, it’s gonna be a different percentage than if you had the draft and mandatory service requirements.”

https://news.usni.org/2022/12/01/tough-military-recruiting-environment-is-about-much-more-than-low-unemployment-experts-say



"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Lord of the Dance

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2023, 10:40:24 PM »
Several studies show when national unemployment is high more folks join the military.  Our unemployment has been very low for some time now, making it more difficult for the services to recruit the numbers they need.  Sure, it's not the only factor, but likely the largest.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/07/20/army-recruiting-crisis-shortage/10098673002/

Likely not the largest factor (see the article I posted above).
"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Texan77

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2023, 12:22:11 AM »
It’s the strongest army in the world.

The Taliban would disagree.

How totally dumb. The Taliban knows we left because they were just not a big enough nuance for us to want to continue to bother. If we would do what Russia does and just kill everyone we can win when the country is depopulated. Afghanistan killed the USSR long term just think what Ukraine is going to do to Russia in a few years even if they "win" the war. 
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2023, 12:42:44 AM »
How totally dumb. The Taliban knows we left because they were just not a big enough nuance for us to want to continue to bother. If we would do what Russia does and just kill everyone we can win when the country is depopulated. Afghanistan killed the USSR long term just think what Ukraine is going to do to Russia in a few years even if they "win" the war.

Afghanistan shows you can't occupy a country forever and things go back 'the way they were' as soon as the occupiers leave.
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Offline BC

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2023, 07:39:57 AM »
Likely not the largest factor (see the article I posted above).

Note my use of "likely".

Also, note opinions were expressed in the article you quoted.  No data was provided, likely not available, even to them.

From your article:

economy can contribute to recruitment challenges, but it is a cyclical factor, Asch, who is a senior economist at RAND, told USNI News

Historically, when there is low employment, it’s harder for the military to recruit, she said in an interview Nov. 2. This could be the case for the military right now, but it’s all speculation, she said.

“I don’t think it’s an either-or situation,” Asch said. “I think it’s a matter of understanding the array of factors that could be having an effect and then teasing out their relative importance and for what particular groups, under what circumstances.

Offline Lord of the Dance

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #21 on: January 19, 2023, 08:27:41 AM »
Likely not the largest factor (see the article I posted above).

Note my use of "likely".

Also, note opinions were expressed in the article you quoted.  No data was provided, likely not available, even to them.

From your article:

economy can contribute to recruitment challenges, but it is a cyclical factor, Asch, who is a senior economist at RAND, told USNI News

Historically, when there is low employment, it’s harder for the military to recruit, she said in an interview Nov. 2. This could be the case for the military right now, but it’s all speculation, she said.

“I don’t think it’s an either-or situation,” Asch said. “I think it’s a matter of understanding the array of factors that could be having an effect and then teasing out their relative importance and for what particular groups, under what circumstances.


As I noted in reply #10, this notion that the military is shrinking is just my opinion, based on the large number of military personnel who feel that declining enlistment is a major problem. Maybe they're all mistaken because they haven't seen the numbers in the chart you provided... I don't know. But I'm still inclined to believe the opinions of these folks who know more about enlistment numbers than I do. 
"My soul cries out with a joyful shout that the God of my heart is great, and my spirit sings of the wondrous things that you bring to the ones who wait." - Canticle of the Turning

Offline Orchid

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2023, 10:09:24 PM »
It’s the strongest army in the world.

The Taliban would disagree.

 :ROFL:  :ROFL:  :ROFL:

The lesson is that no one special operation can last forever…. even for the best army in the world.

Offline Orchid

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2023, 10:11:56 PM »
Likely not the largest factor (see the article I posted above).

Note my use of "likely".

Also, note opinions were expressed in the article you quoted.  No data was provided, likely not available, even to them.

From your article:

economy can contribute to recruitment challenges, but it is a cyclical factor, Asch, who is a senior economist at RAND, told USNI News

Historically, when there is low employment, it’s harder for the military to recruit, she said in an interview Nov. 2. This could be the case for the military right now, but it’s all speculation, she said.

“I don’t think it’s an either-or situation,” Asch said. “I think it’s a matter of understanding the array of factors that could be having an effect and then teasing out their relative importance and for what particular groups, under what circumstances.


As I noted in reply #10, this notion that the military is shrinking is just my opinion, based on the large number of military personnel who feel that declining enlistment is a major problem. Maybe they're all mistaken because they haven't seen the numbers in the chart you provided... I don't know. But I'm still inclined to believe the opinions of these folks who know more about enlistment numbers than I do.

Expert opinion is the lowest level of evidence.

Offline Orchid

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Re: The US military is shrinking
« Reply #24 on: January 20, 2023, 10:19:51 PM »
Declining enlistment can also be attributed to a direct erosion of confidence in our commander-in-chief (especially after the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan in 2021).

Just guessing, but wouldn't this affect retention as well (those that enlisted and renewed their obligation).

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/26/army-having-no-issue-retaining-soldiers-amid-crisis-recruiting-new-ones.html

Do any studies back up your assertion, or is this your opinion alone?  Or do only democrats serve?

Who the CIC was when I enlisted had no bearing on my decision.


I don't recall it mattering to me either but it does for many parents. There wasn't a recent debacle like Afghanistan either so this is probably a moot point.

My grandson is soon approaching draft age.  I have had serious conversations with him with regards to enlistment.  I have a total disability from agent orange.  Given the current administrations disregard for untested chemicals and vaccines I have (I hope) persuaded him not to choose the military at this point.

This is the beauty of the US.
Your grandson has a choice.
In Russia, he would not have such a choice.
Ohhh…. Sorry……
There is a choice for a young man in Russia: army or prison.


 

 

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