A Coming War In Europe?

[andrewfi]

Right back at the beginning of the Russian SMO, I had a thought that this might end up creating splits within the EU and NATO that could lead to a new war in Europe.

As time has passed we are starting to see splits build up that will, I think, lead to a breakout of hostilities within Europe. Nobody seems to be talking about this - possibly because the idea is too scary to consider?

So, what might happen?

Right now we have increasingly vocal discussions about Poland taking over part of western Ukraine. That might well come to pass. But they are not the only stakeholders in that area. Hungary has its eyes on parts of the same region and, I am certain that if Poland makes a move, then so will Hungary.

Next, we have Moldova and Transnistria, with the Ukrainians trying to foment conflict there. Another point of contention is that Transnistria is refusing to supply power to support the Moldovan electricity grid. At some point, some bright spark in the Moldovan government is going to say, "taking control of Transnistria's energy generation - how hard can it be with only 1500 Russian peacekeepers in the breakaway republic?"

Then we have Poland and Germany. The Poles are now demanding compensation from Germany for WW2, then there's an issue over weapons and deployments, that seems a bit complex and ephemeral right now, but the bad feeling between the two is growing.

Tensions between states are growing in Europe. All it takes is a spark to light the dry tinder.

I have for many years thought that Western countries could only support short wars with their military technology and current manpower, but we are starting to see that NATO states are looking to upgrade their military capabilities and resources. of course a relatively low-tech war needs relatively little in the way of sophisticated weapons systems, but for sure, an eye to the future is part of what is causing EU states to start to conserve material rather than just send everything to Ukraine.

When might such a conflict happen? I have no idea, but within the next decade would be my guess. If, as I expect, NATO decreases in relevance and credibility then the opportunities for an intra-Europe conflict will grow.

[rosco]

I agree that the prospects of war breaking out in Europe is an alarming one. As you've noted, it's the eastern bloc who will be either jockeying for the scraps or taking advantage of the current mess. Factions have always seized upon opportunity, when it's too good to pass up on.

As we enter a global recession and cost of living crisis, things are going to become very strained. Public support for Ukraine will dwindle as people start to look closer to homer. Political parties will start to market themselves as leaders who will look after the tax payer first. And financial/military support for Ukraine will reduce.

I believe that Russia knows this and as a result, they can afford to play the long game. Again I feel sorry for Ukraine, they're being used by the west to fight our war and when we decide to pull the plug, Ukraine might just become a full on Russian satellite state with their major regions and cities adopted into the RF.

Zelensky will of course be ok, no doubt counting his millions in a French or LA beach front property and its for this reason I think that the guys a joke. He should be seeking for a peaceful resolution now, before more people needlessly die and Ukraine disappears for good.

[Contrarian]

I agree that the prospects of war breaking out in Europe is an alarming one. As you've noted, it's the eastern bloc who will be either jockeying for the scraps or taking advantage of the current mess. Factions have always seized upon opportunity, when it's too good to pass up on.

As we enter a global recession and cost of living crisis, things are going to become very strained. Public support for Ukraine will dwindle as people start to look closer to homer. Political parties will start to market themselves as leaders who will look after the tax payer first. And financial/military support for Ukraine will reduce.

I believe that Russia knows this and as a result, they can afford to play the long game. Again I feel sorry for Ukraine, they're being used by the west to fight our war and when we decide to pull the plug, Ukraine might just become a full on Russian satellite state with their major regions and cities adopted into the RF.

Zelensky will of course be ok, no doubt counting his millions in a French or LA beach front property and its for this reason I think that the guys a joke. He should be seeking for a peaceful resolution now, before more people needlessly die and Ukraine disappears for good.

Zelensky should have been more serious about seeking peace back in April. Hard to know if it was his ego or if it was the US pushing him and his country into a war which they likely cannot win.

Overall this is truly tragic not only for Europe but especially for the Ukrainian people themselves. One has to wonder if the Z man was part of the plan all along to ruin his own country. 

[andrewfi]

Somehow I managed to miss the tinder that is already smouldering in the Balkans - Kosovo and Serbia. I confess, I have not been following goings-on there closely, but that looks very much like a situation that is going to burst into flame very soon - possibly the next few days.

The EU are getting pissy with Serbia. And, of course, there's always Hungary which might well get ticked off if their energy supplies are interrupted.

[andrewfi]

Contrarian, I think Zelensky is a man not in control of his destiny. He signed up to play a role under one paymaster and found himself put under the directorship of a new paymaster playing a different role to that which he had signed up for.

In part, I think he is working on self preservation. I rather think that his instincts before he was elected and shortly after were genuine. But after his publicised encounter with Pravy Sektor in Donbas, early on in his presidency he came to understand that his survival depended upon a change in his 'attitude'. Now, the world pays the price for his weakness at that time.

He is a man for whom the phrase "caught between a rock and a hard place" could have been created. A weak man who finds himself without the ability to control or manage his destiny. That's OK for most of us, but in his position, that makes him dangerous. His weakness and cowardice have led to the destruction of his country. A stronger man might have accepted his destiny, spoken out and acted better knowing that what might happen to him was for the greater good - but he didn't.

[AvHdB]

While I fully think that the Zelenskyy is not 100% in control of the events taking place in Ukraine he is playing his hand quite well.

Thinking about it I do not see the forces for a so-called world war on the European continent in central Europe. I suspect like any relationship, there are moments of irritation and fraying but NATO dissolving into warring factions seems unlikely. Knowing a bit about Kosovo and Serbia, these are grumpy people who like to argue over the weight of a kilo of feathers. There there could be some shooting, but I suspect NATO will put their foot down once was enough!

What I do think is possible, is some regional wide conflict in the Stans, perhaps involving Chechnya as well. They are strong feelings between the different nations. Some are rich, and some are not, some tend to be more violent than others. Russia has marginal control of some of the regions and the others they have semi puppets in place, resented by the local population. It will not take too much to create a conflict. I believe the United States has one active Air Force airfield in the region. But it seems they do not become involved in the local politics, unless it affects them.

This is my guess, and both Andrew and I have been wrong on the same topic for different reasons, so who knows. We are not there and only seeing things from what we read and observe.

[Texan77]

"I think Zelensky is a man not in control of his destiny." Neither is any other western leader. He will likely be out of power in a few years just like Boris Johnson.

Zelensky really nailed in the USA. In Ukraine the people there just loved seeing him in front of the USA congress. I have never seen Yana moved so much by a speech. It was very inspirational to the people of Ukraine. Afterward Yana told me she was so proud to be Ukrainian.

It appears Russia has cross USA red line with the power plant explosions and torcher chambers. Putin is all pissed off claiming all we are doing is postponing the Russian victory and killing the people of Ukraine. First this babbling fool claims that he won't negotiate with Zelensky because he went to the USA and then the same day, he complains no one will negotiate with him to end the war. Then he claims he will target the Patriot system we are sending and that is most likely the value of the system is to draw Russian fire towards something not really important.

People here complain about the cost of the war. Most of the stuff we are sending Ukraine is our old stock or and obsolete model that is about to be disposed of anyway. Then we make a big deal of how much we are giving to Ukraine.

Ukraine will also get smart bomb conversion kits that convert a 500- or 1,000-pound bomb into a glider that can travel up to 80 km. This is quite a bit more range than Himars and a lot bigger bang when it hits. The bomb and the conversion kit cost much less than an Himar missile. So, Ukraine blows up more Russian stuff at a lower cost. 

[Manny]

Still reading the Yahoo I see, Tex.

[Markje]

Looks like Netherlands has become the next big shipping-port for military hardware from our USA allies.

Some pics of last shipment :

https://www.dumpert.nl/plaatjes?selectedId=100051059_749f541b

total tonnage: 100.000 (100.000 metric tons)

1275 Vehicles, including M1-Abrams, Bradley APC and cargo trucks, and other assorted stuff.

All of them are bound for Poland/Lithuania/estonia/latvia where they will be used to "deter" Russia from starting wars there. (riiiight).

[Texan77]

Looks like Netherlands has become the next big shipping-port for military hardware from our USA allies.

Some pics of last shipment :

https://www.dumpert.nl/plaatjes?selectedId=100051059_749f541b

total tonnage: 100.000 (100.000 metric tons)

1275 Vehicles, including M1-Abrams, Bradley APC and cargo trucks, and other assorted stuff.

All of them are bound for Poland/Lithuania/estonia/latvia where they will be used to "deter" Russia from starting wars there. (riiiight).

Other than the sale of this stuff providing some USA teenage girls with new cars, what do you think this stuff is going to be used for?

I think another year of the Ukraine war will deter Russia plenty. Russia making some gains again (first in four months) in east but now their military is having intense infighting to the point to where Putin had to replace another General who was in charge of the war. This is his fourth in ten months.  Wagner group taking so much credit it is becoming threating to Putin's leadership.  Old General friendly to Wagner while new one not so friendly to them. It is good that we understand what is really important.

I think this stuff will be in Europe employing hundreds of people to preform maintenance for many years to come. 

[Markje]

Other than the sale of this stuff providing some USA teenage girls with new cars, what do you think this stuff is going to be used for?

According to the news article accompanying these pics: Training excersizes ....

I think this stuff will be in Europe employing hundreds of people to preform maintenance for many years to come. 

Not likely, they'll be shipped back juli 2023 (this batch that is, dunno about future shipments)

[cufflinks]

The ANGLO-American MISC (Military Industrial Space Complex) under the guise of Ukraine is about to be decimated and NATO has to DO SOMETHING to "SAVE" Ukraine will invade with 40,000 US troops, 90,000 Polish Troops, and 20,000 Romanian Troops, and a few thousand Brits and French, and Germans to appear as a Unified NATO force and so the UK can say that like Field Marshall Montgomery on D-Day, their superior Anglo intelligence and German IQs won the War for Europe against the evil Rooskies. 

Why the War for Europe?  As Lord Afi has indicated the EU and NATO are under extreme stress, self-inflicted by NATO/EU violations of Treaties with Russia not to Expand NATO and NATO Nukes to the immediate borders of Mother Russia. The Russians have spent the last 20 years building up for this moment with the world's most advanced hypersonic strategic and tactical nuclear arsenals. 

Ever since the Russians lost 25 Million mostly fighting men and many women of childbearing years in the Great Patriotic War, the resulting collapse in generational populations the remaining Russians are acutely aware that as soon as the Combined NATO forces have to DO SOMETHING to save the "innocent" Ukrainians, there will be an instant tipping point whereby Russia to avoid devastating losses from NATO Air and Space power will uncork their entire Nuclear First Strike at all NATO HQ Cities and major bases, airfields and nuclear weapons storage bunkers.   Then wait for a retaliatory strike and reply with their final Coup de Grace mercy nuclear KILL Strikes across the EU.

Lord Afi is right about the stressors, cracks, and fissures developing in the EU and NATO, however, rather than fracturing into separate hot spots will likely not matter when all of the EU is a nuclear wasteland.  Time to take your Russian and Ukrainian mistresses on extended vaca to Thailand, Argentina, or OZtralia to avoid the massive fallout clouds that will cover the relatively small landmass of the EU.

SITREP in Ukraine is horrific for Ukrainian Troops being thrown into a meat grinder with no food and little ammo and scant MASH emergency care and a full-blown tuberculosis epidemic running like a Covid Fire of infection through the Ukrainians.  Seems the Zalensky Regime and UA Oligarchs siphoning off most of the US and NATO funds for their bug-out compounds while leaving Ukraine Troops to Starve, Die and Rot in the killing fields and muddy trenches of Ukraine.  The Kiev Regime is likely to fall into the hands of betrayed Ukrainian Troops and their angry family members leaving Russia to come in and clean up and rebuild Ukraine like Stalin did after WWII!

[BC]

Cuffy, do you have to spam the board with multiple posts in different threads that say the same thing?

[cufflinks]

Yes BC it is the only way to combat your incessant Democrat Communist Party charts and propaganda.