Pelosi in Taiwan

[Manny]

Anyone who is watching the non-MSM news will know that it looks like the US is itching for a big war with someone. Anyone will do it seems. Anything to protect the dollar.

We all know about Ukraine and the proxy war between the US and Russia there, that Russia is winning and will win.

What you might have missed in recent days is that Blinken went to Kosovo, and miraculously, a few days later they decided to no longer recognise various Serbian documents. Car registrations, etc. It seems the US wants to kick off hostilities between its client state Kosovo and Serbia. Cynics would suggest if there's a newly manufactured conflict there, Russia will back Serbia, and fooling Russia to open up a new front or support Serbia will stretch Russia's resources in Ukraine. Another NATO v Russia proxy war.

A new development in the last day or so is Pelosi is on some kind of Asian tour. A desire was expressed that she visit Taiwan. China said no, and it would respond militarily if she did so. There was talk of forcing her plane to land in Hainan and arresting her as an illegal immigrant and all kinds in Chinese media. China yesterday started live drills in the Taiwan straits, warning any visit would not be without consequences. Twitter tells me her plane has now landed in Taipei.

What will China do next? Anyone who knows Chinese culture knows that to do nothing is to lose face. I can't see Xi losing face. He is probably more resolute than Putin. The fact they even allowed the USAF plane to land is already creating headlines about "Paper Tiger".

Who will blink first? 

[andrewfi]

As I noted in another thread, the Chinese will respond but it will probably take a form that the USA or Taiwan will not be expecting.

Remember there are three main stakeholders here, China, the USA and Taiwan.
Reunification is a given, China clearly prefers a peaceful, economically driven solution. A military option might be forced onto the Chinese. If that's likely then, in the short term, losing face might be an appropriate option as that will, as happened in Russia strengthen the resolve of the people who will, over time, almost force the government to take kinetic action with the full resolve of the population.

[WestCoast]

Anyone who is watching the non-MSM news will know that it looks like the US is itching for a big war with someone. Anyone will do it seems. Anything to protect the dollar.

We all know about Ukraine and the proxy war between the US and Russia there, that Russia is winning and will win.

What you might have missed in recent days is that Blinken went to Kosovo, and miraculously, a few days later they decided to no longer recognise various Serbian documents. Car registrations, etc. It seems the US wants to kick off hostilities between its client state Kosovo and Serbia. Cynics would suggest if there's a newly manufactured conflict there, Russia will back Serbia, and fooling Russia to open up a new front or support Serbia will stretch Russia's resources in Ukraine. Another NATO v Russia proxy war.

A new development in the last day or so is Pelosi is on some kind of Asian tour. A desire was expressed that she visit Taiwan. China said no, and it would respond militarily if she did so. There was talk of forcing her plane to land in Hainan and arresting her as an illegal immigrant and all kinds in Chinese media. China yesterday started live drills in the Taiwan straits, warning any visit would not be without consequences. Twitter tells me her plane has now landed in Taipei.

What will China do next? Anyone who knows Chinese culture knows that to do nothing is to lose face. I can't see Xi losing face. He is probably more resolute than Putin. The fact they even allowed the USAF plane to land is already creating headlines about "Paper Tiger".

Who will blink first?

Kosovo, recognised as a nation by more than 100 countries. That's the power the US has.

As for what Xi will do I can't see how you know anything. The mainland Chinese I deal with on a regular basis don't know what's going to happen so how can you?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kosovo-starts-issuing-extra-documents-serbian-citizens-protesters-block-roads-2022-08-01/

[Manny]

Kosovo, recognised as a nation by more than 100 countries. That's the power the US has.

Had.

As for what Xi will do I can't see how you know anything. The mainland Chinese I deal with on a regular basis don't know what's going to happen so how can you?

This is a discussion forum, Westy. I put the topic out there for discussion.

I claim no superior knowledge other than having an inkling into Chinese typical thinking and having a handful of Chinese government accounts on Twitter follow me and I them. Hence my info might be 2 days before MSM and likely be more accurate than what you'll read on Yahoo. 

[Markje]

Meanwhile, china closed airspace over the taiwan street. Since pelosi must now travel by boat, thats going to be inconvenient

[andrewfi]

Mark, as I recall, she does not have to fly over the strait. Unless they close airspace around the islands of Taiwan (there's more than one) she can fly in a different direction. IIRC correctly she flew from Singapore which also avoided the South China Sea which might have been contentious.

[Manny]

Well, isn’t this jolly?

[andrewfi]

Yeah, I saw this last night. It will not block Pelosi's departure but will affect the routing. It is however, a partial blockade of the island.

While the horny pigeons will certainly downplay thisthere will be an economic effect. In addition this sets a precedent and makes clear China's attitude towards the island. It is a real escalation and demonstration of a potential future.

[Markje]

Mark, as I recall, she does not have to fly over the strait. Unless they close airspace around the islands of Taiwan (there's more than one) she can fly in a different direction. IIRC correctly she flew from Singapore which also avoided the South China Sea which might have been contentious.

And yet, all airspace AND all waterways are now blocked. Xi announced China will not be insulted like that and plans to punish (literal quote) both pelosi and the U S A for this

[andrewfi]

Mark, as I recall, she does not have to fly over the strait. Unless they close airspace around the islands of Taiwan (there's more than one) she can fly in a different direction. IIRC correctly she flew from Singapore which also avoided the South China Sea which might have been contentious.

And yet, all airspace AND all waterways are now blocked. Xi announced China will not be insulted like that and plans to punish (literal quote) both pelosi and the U S A for this

Mark, I took a quick look and cannot see that all airspace has been closed. The eastern area between Taiwan and the mainland is closed and the Chinese government has warned that flights should avoid 6 areas where military exercises are being carried out. Those are the areas shown on the map. That's normal stuff. OK, not historically normal, but procedurally so.

Flights to and from the island need to set a route around those areas, but the entire airspace has not been closed at this time - as far as I can see.

This link is about 18 hours old at the time of posting and explains the situation and shows the affected areas. https://aviationsourcenews.com/news/tension-as-china-closes-airspace-near-taiwan-ahead-of-pelosi-visit/

[Markje]

Mark, as I recall, she does not have to fly over the strait. Unless they close airspace around the islands of Taiwan (there's more than one) she can fly in a different direction. IIRC correctly she flew from Singapore which also avoided the South China Sea which might have been contentious.

And yet, all airspace AND all waterways are now blocked. Xi announced China will not be insulted like that and plans to punish (literal quote) both pelosi and the U S A for this

Mark, I took a quick look and cannot see that all airspace has been closed. The eastern area between Taiwan and the mainland is closed and the Chinese government has warned that flights should avoid 6 areas where military exercises are being carried out. Those are the areas shown on the map. That's normal stuff. OK, not historically normal, but procedurally so.

Flights to and from the island need to set a route around those areas, but the entire airspace has not been closed at this time - as far as I can see.

This link is about 18 hours old at the time of posting and explains the situation and shows the affected areas. https://aviationsourcenews.com/news/tension-as-china-closes-airspace-near-taiwan-ahead-of-pelosi-visit/

Ok so you take off and a closeby military boat orders your return. Gnna play chicken?

[andrewfi]

Mark, that's a very different point. But as you can see, China has not closed all the airspace around Taiwan. Pelosi, for example, will, as long as the situation remains unchanged, be able to fly from Taiwan without crossing any closed areas.

[Manny]

The airspace doesn't seem to be closed: https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/tsa

[Lord of the Dance]

The Chinese punished us for her visit in the best way they knew how: by letting her come home to the States.

[AvHdB]

The Chinese punished us for her visit in the best way they knew how: by letting her come home to the States.

    

[Jonas!]

So far I haven't seen much of a reaction as of it regarding Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. 
Biden said 'it isn't a good idea' but my opinion is he condoned the visit and is publicly pretending he didn't. 
I'm curious what her visit was really all about.  My assumption is the US is trying to continue to drive a wedge between Taiwan/China.  Without US interference it seems that Taiwan would remain relatively close to China, and I suspect the US doesn't want that.  It seems that Taiwan will continue to fall under the Chinese sphere of influence more so than US influence.   If the US can create enough rancor between the 2 nations, that could change.  If I were China, I think I'd lay the punishment out, more on the US than Taiwan.  Find some small way to undermine a US interest and do it strictly to harm the US interest.   Make sure it is legal.  Increasing support to Russia would be one way, among 100's of things. 

China, US allies divided over Pelosi’s Taiwan visit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov further criticized the visit in comments Wednesday during a stop in Myanmar, whose Moscow-backed military government is accused of widespread human rights abuses. “It’s an aspiration to prove to everyone their impunity and show lawlessness. ‘It’s my way only,’ something like this," Lavrov said in reference to the U.S. “I see no other reason to create such an annoyance almost out of the blue." China and Russia have closely aligned their foreign policies in recent years, with Moscow backing China over Taiwan and Beijing refusing to criticize Russia for invading Ukraine, while accusing the U.S. and NATO of provoking the conflict and leveling punishing economic sanctions against Russia.

https://www.sunherald.com/news/health/article264124621.html   

Jonas!   
 

[andrewfi]

The reality is that Taiwan is very closely integrated with China. The economic ties are growing and it seems that China's goal was a steady growth and integration such that independence withered away.

It seems that the United States wants to disrupt that process.

[Manny]

It seems that the United States wants to disrupt that process.

I agree. They want client states in the region in the South Korea model. They use South Korea to disrupt relations between them and North Korea. Now they are using Taiwan to antagonise China. They'd have it bristling with weapons and military bases given half a chance.

[2tallbill]

It seems the US wants to kick off hostilities between its client state Kosovo and Serbia.

Cynics would suggest if there's a newly manufactured conflict there,

A realist would suggest that you are a conspiracy nut.

A new development in the last day or so is Pelosi is on some kind of Asian tour. A desire was expressed that she visit Taiwan. China said no, and it would respond militarily if she did so.

China doesn't have the authority to say who can visit Taiwan and who can't.
The Red Chinese have NEVER had authority over Taiwan either and who they
can invite to visit them. They have never been part of the Taiwan government,
they have never ran in any elections there.

The Red Chinese don't have ANY authority over USA elected officials.

Red China claiming ownership of Taiwan is a joke.

The idea that anyone on Team Biden sent Pelosi there to start a proxy war
exists in your imagination only.

China yesterday started live drills in the Taiwan straits, warning any visit would not be without consequences. Twitter tells me her plane has now landed in Taipei.

What will China do next? Anyone who knows Chinese culture knows that to do nothing is to lose face. I can't see Xi losing face. He is probably more resolute than Putin. The fact they even allowed the USAF plane to land is already creating headlines about "Paper Tiger".

Who will blink first?

Who will blink first?

Not Nancy, she hasn't blinked in nearly 20 years. All that surgery and botox

[Jonas!]

 
 

China doesn't have the authority to say who can visit Taiwan and who can't.
The Red Chinese have NEVER had authority over Taiwan either and who they
can invite to visit them. They have never been part of the Taiwan government,
they have never ran in any elections there.

The Red Chinese don't have ANY authority over USA elected officials.

Red China claiming ownership of Taiwan is a joke.

 

The only statement I can agree with here is that China doesn't have authority over the US elected officials.
 The rest of what you stated isn't very accurate.   It seems that China has had quite a lot of authority over Taiwan for hundreds of years.  Japan had control from 1895-1945 but before and after that China ruled Taiwan and it was rather lenient it seems.   At this point in time, it would appear the US is trying to stir something up in the region.  It doesn't seem China is in danger of losing it's influence over Taiwan, nevertheless if they decided that Taiwan was trying to break off illegally then I guess they would have to come in and put down the rebellion.   

On a different note If California or Texas tried to leave the US, the US would prevent it, despite the fact that much of America dislikes Californian's nowadays. If China tried to drive a wedge between California and the US the US would react.  California has only been a state since 1850 which pales in comparison to the length of time China and Taiwan have been associated with each other.
 

Jonas! 

[cufflinks]

China is close to being sanctioned similar to Russia for its violation of the EU/Europe/5 Eyes countries sanctions against Russia due to their UA misAdventures.

[WestCoast]

 
 

China doesn't have the authority to say who can visit Taiwan and who can't.
The Red Chinese have NEVER had authority over Taiwan either and who they
can invite to visit them. They have never been part of the Taiwan government,
they have never ran in any elections there.

The Red Chinese don't have ANY authority over USA elected officials.

Red China claiming ownership of Taiwan is a joke.

 

The only statement I can agree with here is that China doesn't have authority over the US elected officials.
 The rest of what you stated isn't very accurate.   It seems that China has had quite a lot of authority over Taiwan for hundreds of years.  Japan had control from 1895-1945 but before and after that China ruled Taiwan and it was rather lenient it seems.   At this point in time, it would appear the US is trying to stir something up in the region.  It doesn't seem China is in danger of losing it's influence over Taiwan, nevertheless if they decided that Taiwan was trying to break off illegally then I guess they would have to come in and put down the rebellion.   

On a different note If California or Texas tried to leave the US, the US would prevent it, despite the fact that much of America dislikes Californian's nowadays. If China tried to drive a wedge between California and the US the US would react.  California has only been a state since 1850 which pales in comparison to the length of time China and Taiwan have been associated with each other.
 

Jonas!

China had control over Vladivostok since about the late 13th century. The area was ceded by China to Russia as a result of the Treaty of Aigun of 1858 and the Treaty of Peking of 1860. China calls these treaties illegal and unfair.

Being that you're such a fan of China ruling Taiwan for such a long time meaning that China should still control Taiwan you must be in favor of China regaining its control over Vladivostok and surrounding areas?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Vladivostok
https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/60357

[Jonas!]

China had control over Vladivostok since about the late 13th century. The area was ceded by China to Russia as a result of the Treaty of Aigun of 1858 and the Treaty of Peking of 1860. China calls these treaties illegal and unfair.

Being that you're such a fan of China ruling Taiwan for such a long time meaning that China should still control Taiwan you must be in favor of China regaining its control over Vladivostok and surrounding areas?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Vladivostok
https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/60357

Treaty signed in 1858. 
Since you are such a big fan of China retaining Vladivostok, you must also be in favor of Russia regaining control of Alaska.

Jonas! 

[WestCoast]

China had control over Vladivostok since about the late 13th century. The area was ceded by China to Russia as a result of the Treaty of Aigun of 1858 and the Treaty of Peking of 1860. China calls these treaties illegal and unfair.

Being that you're such a fan of China ruling Taiwan for such a long time meaning that China should still control Taiwan you must be in favor of China regaining its control over Vladivostok and surrounding areas?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Vladivostok
https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/60357

Treaty signed in 1858. 
Since you are such a big fan of China retaining Vladivostok, you must also be in favor of Russia regaining control of Alaska.

Jonas!

China says the treaty was unfair. Surely Russia would want to do good and make right any historic wrongs no matter how far in the past they are?

The difference between the two treaties is very big. Russia brought up the idea for the US buying Alaska. Russia voluntarily sold Alaska to the US because Russia needed the money. Don't know if Russia ever offered the same deal to Canada.

OTOH China says Russia bullied them at the point of a gun into selling Vladivostok to Russia after China had had control of the area for centuries.

[Jonas!]

China says the treaty was unfair. Surely Russia would want to do good and make right any historic wrongs no matter how far in the past they are?

I'm sure since you have such a firmly held belief in fair agreements, you would agree that the US should allow Hawaii to be independent since we were not fair in how we took control of it.

Jonas!