Silly Baltic Sausages Are Going To Get Burned.

[andrewfi]

A few days ago, (18th June) The Lithuanian government abrogated a treaty with Russia that had been in place for 3 decades. They did so by banning transit by rail in closed cars of any goods deemed by Lithuania to be under EU sanctions.

This is the start of a blockade on Kaliningrad and it will not end well. That might be an intended outcome, but given the level of incompetence displayed in capitals across Europe and the United States, it is not possible to be sure in either case.

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

This was stated by the head of the Federation Council commission for the protection of sovereignty Klimov.

It seems that the Polish and Lithuanian armies are already deployed close to the Kaliningrad border, but that might not be the most appropriate place to be. Kaliningrad is well defended but the borders between the Baltics and Russia/Belarus are not - apart from posing propaganda pics of tanks rolling around in the mud in remote areas.

Looking at a map, it seems that, unless Belarus decided to allow Russian forces to transit its territory, Latvia and Lithuania are about to get a roasting. If the Belarusians are OK with the idea, then the Suwalki Gap will get closed leading, at the least to a partition between the Baltics and the more western countries. The latter option would thus involve Lithuania directly. Other options would drag in Latvia and, in extremis, Estonia.

If such a partition occurs then the Baltic states might as well close the doors and turn off the lights.

[Jonas!]

E.U. and Nato daring Russia to do something about it militarily.    Since Russia probably doesn't want war with nato, I guess they will find other means.  I'd say moves like this up the odds all of Ukraine winds up in Russian hands. 

Jonas! 

[andrewfi]

E.U. and Nato daring Russia to do something about it militarily.    Since Russia probably doesn't want war with nato, I guess they will find other means.  I'd say moves like this up the odds all of Ukraine winds up in Russian hands. 

Jonas!

Yes, it does rather fit a pattern of provocation and, at least for the time being, Moscow seems keen to tamp things down. Right now there are two ships on a regular route to Kanilkingrad from Saint Petersburg. They have said that by year-end there will be seven such vessels. However, the Kaliningrad leadership and others within the Russian state have been making bellicose noises. I think that both the practical and vocal strands need to be paid attention to.

When it comes to military action, I am entirely convinced that at no point has it been the first choice and has also been reactive. But when it comes to moving, they are well prepared.

[dorbradavid]

A few days ago, (18th June) The Lithuanian government abrogated a treaty with Russia that had been in place for 3 decades. They did so by banning transit by rail in closed cars of any goods deemed by Lithuania to be under EU sanctions.

This is the start of a blockade on Kaliningrad and it will not end well. That might be an intended outcome, but given the level of incompetence displayed in capitals across Europe and the United States, it is not possible to be sure in either case.

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

This was stated by the head of the Federation Council commission for the protection of sovereignty Klimov.

It seems that the Polish and Lithuanian armies are already deployed close to the Kaliningrad border, but that might not be the most appropriate place to be. Kaliningrad is well defended but the borders between the Baltics and Russia/Belarus are not - apart from posing propaganda pics of tanks rolling around in the mud in remote areas.

Looking at a map, it seems that, unless Belarus decided to allow Russian forces to transit its territory, Latvia and Lithuania are about to get a roasting. If the Belarusians are OK with the idea, then the Suwalki Gap will get closed leading, at the least to a partition between the Baltics and the more western countries. The latter option would thus involve Lithuania directly. Other options would drag in Latvia and, in extremis, Estonia.

If such a partition occurs then the Baltic states might as well close the doors and turn off the lights.

Ok, I don't know all there is to know, but isn't this "poking the bear"?

Couldn't the west have gone all day w/o this? 

[andrewfi]

Ok, I don't know all there is to know, but isn't this "poking the bear"?

Couldn't the west have gone all day w/o this? 

You know enough to be correct here!

It is a little odd. Just a few days ago, Jens Stoltenberg and others were seemingly taking of Ukraine negotiating and accepting an inevitable loss of territory. Then the three leaders whose names I cannot bother to recall popped into Kiev and everything turned bellicose again.

Something happened. Even Texan99 Joe Biden was talking in terms somewhat less bellicose and insane.

By the way, for context, the Kaliningrad border is just 40 miles from the Belarusian border across Lithuanian territory. If the Russians want to bridge that gap, I am sure they can, even against the best of the Polish and Lithuanian armies.

[dorbradavid]

Ok, I don't know all there is to know, but isn't this "poking the bear"?

Couldn't the west have gone all day w/o this? 

You know enough to be correct here!

It is a little odd. Just a few days ago, Jens Stoltenberg and others were seemingly taking of Ukraine negotiating and accepting an inevitable loss of territory. Then the three leaders whose names I cannot bother to recall popped into Kiev and everything turned bellicose again.

Something happened. Even Texan99 Joe Biden was talking in terms somewhat less bellicose and insane.

By the way, for context, the Kaliningrad border is just 40 miles from the Belarusian border across Lithuanian territory. If the Russians want to bridge that gap, I am sure they can, even against the best of the Polish and Lithuanian armies.

FYI to all, there's a very interesting article and simulation on this:

https://shop.strategyandtacticspress.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=ST327#:~:text=Suwałki%20Gap%20is%20a%20two,extent%20of%20publicly%20available%20information.

[andrewfi]

Ok, I don't know all there is to know, but isn't this "poking the bear"?

Couldn't the west have gone all day w/o this? 

You know enough to be correct here!

It is a little odd. Just a few days ago, Jens Stoltenberg and others were seemingly taking of Ukraine negotiating and accepting an inevitable loss of territory. Then the three leaders whose names I cannot bother to recall popped into Kiev and everything turned bellicose again.

Something happened. Even Texan99 Joe Biden was talking in terms somewhat less bellicose and insane.

By the way, for context, the Kaliningrad border is just 40 miles from the Belarusian border across Lithuanian territory. If the Russians want to bridge that gap, I am sure they can, even against the best of the Polish and Lithuanian armies.

FYI to all, there's a very interesting article and simulation on this:

https://shop.strategyandtacticspress.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=ST327#:~:text=Suwałki%20Gap%20is%20a%20two,extent%20of%20publicly%20available%20information.

By the looks of it, delivery of the product will take longer than any campaign is likely to last.

[AJ]

Seems tit for tat games of russias blockade of ukraine ont he black sea,with no war declared

Yes it is poking the bear to dare cross nato.lines.

Russias actions regulated ukraine export import  to truck and rail commerce only.

This play somewhat regulates kaliningrad oblast to sea and air  import /export

Seems a diplomatoc tactic to reverse the black sea blockade
And to highlight  kaliningrad as a russian  military  outpost in  europe .

You fail to mention the preceding news that russia declared several balt8c independences null and void.
This could be a reaction by the baltics  to russias own prior  but recent  declarations

[andrewfi]

Only one problem with all that...
There's no Black Sea Blockade. At least not one from any country bordering the sea except Ukraine.

Ukraine has mined the Black Sea. Russia and Turkey have cleared navigation routes. Ukraine has blocked harbour entrances and refuses to let ships tied up in Ukrainian ports leave.

So, there's that. No retaliation. Simply an attempt at escalation by Lithuania with the backing of the EU.

[andrewfi]

And no, Russia has not as you amusingly put it 'declared several several balt8c independences null and void.'

[Texan77]

A few days ago, (18th June) The Lithuanian government abrogated a treaty with Russia that had been in place for 3 decades. They did so by banning transit by rail in closed cars of any goods deemed by Lithuania to be under EU sanctions.

This is the start of a blockade on Kaliningrad and it will not end well. That might be an intended outcome, but given the level of incompetence displayed in capitals across Europe and the United States, it is not possible to be sure in either case.

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

This was stated by the head of the Federation Council commission for the protection of sovereignty Klimov.

It seems that the Polish and Lithuanian armies are already deployed close to the Kaliningrad border, but that might not be the most appropriate place to be. Kaliningrad is well defended but the borders between the Baltics and Russia/Belarus are not - apart from posing propaganda pics of tanks rolling around in the mud in remote areas.

Looking at a map, it seems that, unless Belarus decided to allow Russian forces to transit its territory, Latvia and Lithuania are about to get a roasting. If the Belarusians are OK with the idea, then the Suwalki Gap will get closed leading, at the least to a partition between the Baltics and the more western countries. The latter option would thus involve Lithuania directly. Other options would drag in Latvia and, in extremis, Estonia.

If such a partition occurs then the Baltic states might as well close the doors and turn off the lights.

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

[AJ]

Only one problem with all that...
There's no Black Sea Blockade. At least not one from any country bordering the sea except Ukraine.

Ukraine has mined the Black Sea. Russia and Turkey have cleared navigation routes. Ukraine has blocked harbour entrances and refuses to let ships tied up in Ukrainian ports leave.

So, there's that. No retaliation. Simply an attempt at escalation by Lithuania with the backing of the EU.

So ukrainian commercial ships are free to navigate the black sea at this time accordimg to andrewfi,while nations are arranging (but havnt done so yet) protection for this to occur.
No need of that if they are free to travel safely.


Anc yes ukraine had to.mine their ports as there were several amphibious assaults attempted on various port cities .
Im.sure amphibious assualts allow regular cargo frieghters to sail free passage   🤦‍♂️

[AJ]

And no, Russia has not as you amusingly put it 'declared several several balt8c independences null and void.'

Technically you are correct i was quoting russian state tv,which is state funded propaganda.
My bad.

However you convienently  ignore the basis for russia one state tv  talking point.

 *The bill was submitted by Yevgeny Fyodorov, a deputy of the State Duma and a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. The law was sent by the chairman of the State Duma to the State Duma Committee on International Affairs on Thursday afternoon.*

So despite your amusement ,there is a bill introduced in committee of  russian parliment  to do exactly that.

Granted  it may or may not  come up for vote ,or pass.

The same was spoken about for estonia.

I know you have putin fever, but you live in a baltic state that has heavily supported ukraine,regardless a brit  residing there.
 
They have thier reasons,whether you agree with them or not,  as government and as citizens, since they crowdfunded over 5 million publically.

If in your amusement you think russia will roll.over the baltics uncontested and easily ,better review their 3 month mostly stalled offensives in ukraine.

They certainly have the capability if they mobilize, but they would face full nato.
If they try a version of the
special.operation,in the baltics ,it will certainly be more *special* than the current one,with far less troops and support.

Accepting a sphere of influence is decreasing naturally is a hard pill to swallow,
both for russia and for the west,but both better get accustomed to it.

[andrewfi]

AJ, go read a post I wrote a few days ago about that 'legislation' to clarify your misunderstanding.

A little (too little) knowledge can make a man look a bit of a twat.

[andrewfi]

A few days ago, (18th June) The Lithuanian government abrogated a treaty with Russia that had been in place for 3 decades. They did so by banning transit by rail in closed cars of any goods deemed by Lithuania to be under EU sanctions.

This is the start of a blockade on Kaliningrad and it will not end well. That might be an intended outcome, but given the level of incompetence displayed in capitals across Europe and the United States, it is not possible to be sure in either case.

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

This was stated by the head of the Federation Council commission for the protection of sovereignty Klimov.

It seems that the Polish and Lithuanian armies are already deployed close to the Kaliningrad border, but that might not be the most appropriate place to be. Kaliningrad is well defended but the borders between the Baltics and Russia/Belarus are not - apart from posing propaganda pics of tanks rolling around in the mud in remote areas.

Looking at a map, it seems that, unless Belarus decided to allow Russian forces to transit its territory, Latvia and Lithuania are about to get a roasting. If the Belarusians are OK with the idea, then the Suwalki Gap will get closed leading, at the least to a partition between the Baltics and the more western countries. The latter option would thus involve Lithuania directly. Other options would drag in Latvia and, in extremis, Estonia.

If such a partition occurs then the Baltic states might as well close the doors and turn off the lights.

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

Hi

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

From whence did you dig up this vital intelligence?

[cufflinks]

A sobering assessment of Ukraines status VS the Russian war:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/when-lies-come-home
###

[WestCoast]

It appears the Russia Ukraine war is over, at least technically. Yevgeny Fedorov, a member of the State Duma and President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, submitted a draft law last week, saying that the Soviet Union State Council’s resolution “On Recognizing the Independence of the Republic of Lithuania” was illegal. Kiev Cit Council has retaliated and withdrawn the founding of Moscow.

Many may not know this but Kiev is much, much older than Russia and Moscow. Kiev was founded in 482. Moscow was actually founded by the Grand Duke of Kiev. In 1147, the Grand Duke of Kiev and ruler of the Kievan Rus’, Yuriy Dolhoruky, issued a decree founding Moscow. In 2022, Kiev City Council rescinded this decree, saying it was due to a “historical misunderstanding.”

Therefore Moscow no longer exists.

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1717788/should-lithuania-be-worried-about-russia-cancelling-its-independence
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1535261709463592961

[Texan77]

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

From whence did you dig up this vital intelligence?

Numerous comments by Putin and the Russian duma leaders combined with article below. This is just Lithuania response. Whatever Russia's response will be it will not make the Russian state more popular with anybody.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-moscow-lithuania-independence-soviet-union-yevgeny-fyodorov-1714138

The war in Ukraine is not getting over but rather ramping up. The worse is yet to come.

[AJ]

AJ, go read a post I wrote a few days ago about that 'legislation' to clarify your misunderstanding.

A little (too little) knowledge can make a man look a bit of a twat.

Does that include  the portion of russian populace targeted by russian.one ?

[2tallbill]

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

The EU needs to officially make a statement as to what their member states 
are supposed to do, especially those near the border. The Bureaucrats in Brussels
should have already worked this out and made an announcement before anything
was to be stopped at the border.

That's my two kopecks,
Bill

[WestCoast]

Looking at a map, it seems that, unless Belarus decided to allow Russian forces to transit its territory, Latvia and Lithuania are about to get a roasting. If the Belarusians are OK with the idea, then the Suwalki Gap will get closed leading, at the least to a partition between the Baltics and the more western countries. The latter option would thus involve Lithuania directly. Other options would drag in Latvia and, in extremis, Estonia.

If such a partition occurs then the Baltic states might as well close the doors and turn off the lights.

Putin just might be that stupid. If he attacks Lithuania or any of the NATO countries and he goes to war with NATO. Then as I've mentioned before he has three options - go nuclear, commit suicide or be frog marched out of the Kremlin and go to the Hague to be tried for war crimes.

The Russian military after the beating they've taken in Ukraine is now a 3rd rate military and no match for NATO. Maybe Putin is dying and figures if he dies why not take all of Russia with him?

[rosco]

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

Can you prove this, or will you simply embed another video of a looney, spouting radical theory?

[rosco]

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

From whence did you dig up this vital intelligence?

Numerous comments by Putin and the Russian duma leaders combined with article below. This is just Lithuania response. Whatever Russia's response will be it will not make the Russian state more popular with anybody.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-moscow-lithuania-independence-soviet-union-yevgeny-fyodorov-1714138

The war in Ukraine is not getting over but rather ramping up. The worse is yet to come.

I'm assuming you can read, or at least take the time to read the links you post as evidence supporting your views? If so, you're just looking more silly with each crap you take. From your very own link, it cites the views of a single Russian law maker. Nowhere in the article does it state that this is Russia's views or indeed Putin's.

So using your theory, if one single US lawmaker in the US senate in the House of Representatives (there are 535 I believe) comes up with a radical theory, then we must assume that the United States Government and its sitting President supports this theory and holds these views......stupid right?

Back to Russia and your article, it quotes;

"Fyodorov's views are extreme even by the standards of Russian lawmakers, so I don't expect this to go anywhere,"

You're talking more rubbish Texan77 and its time you tried to understand a bit more about the world you live in. 

[AJ]

"The EU must correct the situation with the blockade of Kaliningrad, or Russia will have a free hand to resolve the issue by any means."

The EU needs to officially make a statement as to what their member states 
are supposed to do, especially those near the border. The Bureaucrats in Brussels
should have already worked this out and made an announcement before anything
was to be stopped at the border.

That's my two kopecks,
Bill

Not sure what EU clarification they received, but seemingly enough to act regarding sanctioned items.

Non sanctioned items can still travel thru by rail or truck.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rferl.org/amp/lithuania-bans-transit-sanctioned-russian-goods-kalingrad/31904337.html

[Texan77]

So what the difference? Russia was going to invade them soon any way.

Can you prove this, or will you simply embed another video of a looney, spouting radical theory?

What is looney and radical is your support of Russia that wants to destroy your way of life.

How can you prove the future? Russia does not really have a plan but rather looks for opportunities.  Russia sees this as a battle between the USA and Russia with Europe being nothing more than the prize.  This is the first step needed to tire NATO down for the invasion of the first Nato country. Lithuania is one of their best prospects. This is because it is going to be hard for Nato to defend it. Russia can attack from both sides and they would hope to capture it very fast. Once the first Nato country is able to be capture by Russia the hope is the rest of Nato will be in disarray.  I believe the Brits are sending troops Lithuania because they see this as a real possibility.

Notice Finland and Sweden are taking the Russia threat very seriously and want to join Nato. I was talking with a man here whose family is living in Romania, and he says his family is terrified of the possibility of Russia aggression in their country. Many people in Romania appear to have little to no confidence that Russia plans to stop at the border.  Moldova has little to no confidence that Russia plans to stop at the border. Poland has little to no confidence Russia is going to stop at the border. Lithuania has little to no confidence Russia will stop at the border.

Russia is willing to work on taking Ukraine for as long as it takes to make it part of Russia. After that someplace else will need to be DE nazified in an attempt to disrupt Nato and displace the USA.

The only thing I can see that will stop Russia is a collapse in the price of oil and gas. I do not see this happening real soon. (Maybe late 2024 or later)