The coming food crisis

[Texan77]

The war in Ukraine may create more problem than most of us realize. It has been posted on this forum several time about future food shortages. I am one who believe the war in Ukraine will last a long time, maybe years, though it will have time where the fighting may be reduced for a while.  It might have short term peace treaty that do not last long. What you are looking at is part of the new normal. The problem with this war is it is going to affect food productions that will have effects on other areas the world and may even cause other wars.

[BillyB]

Of course there's going to be a food crisis because Biden said there's going to be one. Biden wanted this war. Biden wants people to starve. Ukraine exports 8% of the world's grain. Russia exports 18% of the world's grain. Over 25% of the world's grain will be affected if Biden sanctions Russia's export of food and prolongs the war which affects Ukraine's production.

Inflation, starvations, poverty in a more dangerous world. Welcome to the Build Back Better program Biden promised us.

[BillyB]

Keep in mind, the food crisis was not started by Russia's war. I was started by Biden right here in America after he took office. There are shortages of everything, piping, lumber, coins, stamps, milk, cat food, etc... I've never seen so many shortages in my life. Walk into the grocery store one day, there's no milk. Walk into another day and 90% of the cat food is missing. Reminds me of the stories I read about the Soviets having to stand in line waiting for the products they need.

On Youtube you can find farmers last year showing letters they got from our government to destroy their crops and they'll get paid for it. Some thought it was a joke until they called their local agricultural department which verified the orders from the government is real and if they don't destroy the crops the government will come do it themselves.

Here's a youtube video showing a Biden executive order last year telling farmers to stop using 30% of their land in the name of stopping climate change. What Biden isn't telling you is more people are going to starve. He wants that but can't say it. There is a depopulation agenda. Release of pathogens, vaccines, wars, inflation, and starvation are ways of achieving depopulation.

[AvHdB]

Billy perhaps you need some changes in your life?

Yes some things are more expensive, but gas was close to $5,00 a gallon and now is 4,19 with further drops in price coming. No problem getting cat food or good beef, a bit pricey, salmon and lobster available at the same price as a year ago. Plenty of chicken available. Lamb is more difficult.

The trees are leafing out and I understand from a guy who sugars that he is having his best season in decades. The days are getting longer and sometimes I can wear a short sleeved shirt.

Fortunately K. Harris is NOT President and the 3rd World War has NOT started.

[andrewfi]

What's the situation with foie gras and truffles at the moment Avhdb?
How's the veal supply situation holding up?

Can you comment on the expected availability of cake to feed the starving masses?

[AvHdB]

What's the situation with foie gras and truffles at the moment Avhdb?
How's the veal supply situation holding up?

Can you comment on the expected availability of cake to feed the starving masses?

Do not like to commit cruelty to Billykins animals so not sure about foil gras. As for truffles not my taste, so uncertain.

My favourite Patisserie is still making killer Opera Cake, with gold leaf so all is good.

But Tex has a valid point cereals such as Fruit Loops will be for the forseeable future more expensive. Better stock up!

[AvHdB]

Tex it is an interesting video but filled with inaccuracies; Canada is the largest producer of Potash, The United States is the largest exporter of cereals, and it goes on.

Yes I am certain because of the Russias invasion of Ukraine and what is turning out to be a poor planting season in Russia cereal prices will rise. But the window for planting in Russia is not closed yet. Countries such as France, Canada and The United States can increase production. This will to a large degree offset the losses from Russia and Ukraine.

[andrewfi]

I will rely upon you to keep us up to date on the luxury comestible situation.

I am sure that you will survive while the rest of us starve to death - or at least lose a big chunk of weight.

[BillyB]

Yes some things are more expensive, but gas was close to $5,00 a gallon and now is 4,19 with further drops in price coming.

You've been conditioned to pay more so you now appreciate the drop in price. You're still overpaying but if you want to thank the powers in charge for the relief after the shafting in the ass, go right ahead.

[Gipsy]

Tex it is an interesting video but filled with inaccuracies; Canada is the largest producer of Potash, The United States is the largest exporter of cereals, and it goes on.

Yes I am certain because of the Russias invasion of Ukraine and what is turning out to be a poor planting season in Russia cereal prices will rise. But the window for planting in Russia is not closed yet. Countries such as France, Canada and The United States can increase production. This will to a large degree offset the losses from Russia and Ukraine.

What makes you think that there is a poor planting season in Russia??
The window for planting in southern areas of the country have opened mid march, and will continue up to approx mid may..
In more northerly climes, the window will open from mid April until approx mid may..
Also, it should be remembered that the autumn sowing season last year was reportedly completed fully, this was the time for sowing winter corn/wheat etc..
I would appreciate knowing where you got your info from to substantiate your comments...

[AvHdB]

Tex it is an interesting video but filled with inaccuracies; Canada is the largest producer of Potash, The United States is the largest exporter of cereals, and it goes on.

Yes I am certain because of the Russias invasion of Ukraine and what is turning out to be a poor planting season in Russia cereal prices will rise. But the window for planting in Russia is not closed yet. Countries such as France, Canada and The United States can increase production. This will to a large degree offset the losses from Russia and Ukraine.

What makes you think that there is a poor planting season in Russia??
The window for planting in southern areas of the country have opened mid march, and will continue up to approx mid may..
In more northerly climes, the window will open from mid April until approx mid may..
Also, it should be remembered that the autumn sowing season last year was reportedly completed fully, this was the time for sowing winter corn/wheat etc..
I would appreciate knowing where you got your info from to substantiate your comments...

The weather, you can check Wunderground and see for your self.

As I noted before the window has not closed too plant winter wheat yet, and the weather can improve.

There are other sites that monitor these metrological data. I saw one site that the output for Russia was projected to be average.

[Tom Cat]

Tex it is an interesting video but filled with inaccuracies; Canada is the largest producer of Potash, The United States is the largest exporter of cereals, and it goes on.

Yes I am certain because of the Russias invasion of Ukraine and what is turning out to be a poor planting season in Russia cereal prices will rise. But the window for planting in Russia is not closed yet. Countries such as France, Canada and The United States can increase production. This will to a large degree offset the losses from Russia and Ukraine.

What makes you think that there is a poor planting season in Russia??
The window for planting in southern areas of the country have opened mid march, and will continue up to approx mid may..
In more northerly climes, the window will open from mid April until approx mid may..
Also, it should be remembered that the autumn sowing season last year was reportedly completed fully, this was the time for sowing winter corn/wheat etc..
I would appreciate knowing where you got your info from to substantiate your comments...

The weather, you can check Wunderground and see for your self.

As I noted before the window has not closed too plant winter wheat yet, and the weather can improve.

There are other sites that monitor these metrological data. I saw one site that the output for Russia was projected to be average.

The battles are not being fought in the wheat fields and wheat is mostly planted in September or around that time.
Russian wheat will be available so why is there a potential shortage?
There should be plenty of wheat, I don't believe that is a real problem.

The problem is fertilizer shortage.
Again we have Joe Bidens policies that  are  causing a fertilizer shortage.
Putting the blame on the war and Russia is just another way to cover failed policies.

There is some good news that a Nigeria billionaire has opened a large fertilizer plant in Nigeria,  and will be able to help fill some of the void caused by sanctions on Russia.

[andrewfi]

Tom Cat, that is largely true.
However, what we do not yet know is what will happen over the course of the year in respect of Ukraine. Russian supplies will be available as normal but Ukraine's may not. This would lead to a genuine reduction in wheat availability, but we do have around the world, very large stockpiles of wheat.

And yes, wheat is pretty much fungible, that is, if the goods flow to a different location to meet a need then the goods that went originally to the location will be sold elsewhere. So, if the EU does not buy Russian wheat then that wheat will be sold to, for example, China. The wheat that China would have purchased, for example, from the USA, will be sold to the EU.

And yes, fertiliser may be more costly - I doubt that there will be a genuine shortage. Again, the inputs are fungible. The increased costs will be in terms of the energy inputs and there may well be energy shortages and certainly price hikes in the EU as natural gas is not fungible because pipelines are fixed and there is a limited capacity for LNG transport and processing - if not production.

Most of us will not starve, but at the margins, where people are unable to afford wheat products to eat, there will be price induced shortages.

[Tom Cat]

Tom Cat, that is largely true.
However, what we do not yet know is what will happen over the course of the year in respect of Ukraine. Russian supplies will be available as normal but Ukraine's may not. This would lead to a genuine reduction in wheat availability, but we do have around the world, very large stockpiles of wheat.

And yes, wheat is pretty much fungible, that is, if the goods flow to a different location to meet a need then the goods that went originally to the location will be sold elsewhere. So, if the EU does not buy Russian wheat then that wheat will be sold to, for example, China. The wheat that China would have purchased, for example, from the USA, will be sold to the EU.

And yes, fertiliser may be more costly - I doubt that there will be a genuine shortage. Again, the inputs are fungible. The increased costs will be in terms of the energy inputs and there may well be energy shortages and certainly price hikes in the EU as natural gas is not fungible because pipelines are fixed and there is a limited capacity for LNG transport and processing - if not production.

Most of us will not starve, but at the margins, where people are unable to afford wheat products to eat, there will be price induced shortages.

Well if there is any truth to the rumors that Ukraine is now willing to become a neutral  country,  then maybe this will be over in a relatively short period.

[andrewfi]

Tom Cat, having seen the proposals from Ukraine (RT.com), it would be an unwise person who held their breath while waiting for that outcome.

I think that the RF recognises that the Ukrainian government and its handlers are finally willing to enter into serious negotiations but the plan outlined by Ukraine is just the first tiny step on a long walk to a solution. The initial proposals from the Kiev regime will find no favour with the Russian negotiators or government/

My guess is that when the Ukrainian forces in the east of Ukraine are getting well boiled, the Ukrainian government will have a moment of clarity, similar to that which enabled the first Minsk agreement to be brokered. The Russians, by contrast, will be unlikely to fall for a similar trick again and will not let the Ukrainian government get away so easily this time.

So, a long process that will depend in large part on how well the Russian military performs as boilers of pots in the east of Ukraine.

[Steveboy]

What a load of bunk.. never did understand why there is such a food problem .. same shit in the Uk..

When I was about 14 I had a fishing boat with a mate .. just on the foreshore, we used to catch crab, lobster, salmon, bass in fact the parents had a big chest freezer we used to fill it up, all through the winter we had fish, we had chickens in the garden and the old man used to grow veg.. People just got bloody lazy! Food is every where if you get off your ass and find it.. I could never see myself starving to death what ever my situation..

[Texan77]

Tex it is an interesting video but filled with inaccuracies; Canada is the largest producer of Potash, The United States is the largest exporter of cereals, and it goes on.

Russia exports the most fertilizers by dollars amount of any country in the world.

https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-exports-by-country/

Russia: US$7 billion (12.6% of total exported fertilizers)
China: $6.6 billion (11.8%)
Canada: $5.2 billion (9.3%)
United States: $3.6 billion (6.4%)
Morocco: $3.4 billion (6.1%)
Belarus: $2.9 billion (5.2%)

https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-fertilizers-exports-by-country/

[Manny]

The US has apparently exempted Russian fertilisers from sanctions. That didn't take long. 

However, whether Russia will sell them is another matter. Part of Russian counter-sanctions is not selling stuff to "unfriendly countries" Medvedev recently said.

Any food shortages relating to Russian fertilisers or lack of Russian grain are entirely the fault of the countries who started the sanctions. The US and their EU/UK puppets. Certainly in terms of European wheat and fertiliser supply, Russia is the hand that rocks the cradle.

Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on RT said, "In many ways, Europe has not sanctioned Russia, it has sanctioned itself." - He also said, "I don't see any sign that Europeans gave any thought to the strategic consequences of what they were doing."

Somebody mentioned upthread fertilisers coming from Africa. But where has China's Belt and Road initiative been targetting the last few years? Africa. I think none of Africa has joined in on sanctions on Russia. In fact, 74% of the world hasn't. I'd suggest Africa's loyalties will lie with China and Russia.



If there is a food crisis, it will be entirely self-inflicted by a dying hegemon that is the Empire of Lies. All this has been written on the wall for some time. Its been discussed here many times before.

I've often ruminated that the US will go down kicking and screaming, and we are seeing this now. The general idea is that the US will be relegated to a regional power. Power in the world will be multipolar. 

Nobody wants the US as the worlds policeman belligerently blundering around the world destroying governments, deposing leaders and killing heads of states. Russia watched you ignite Ukraine, and then blocked you destroying Syria, and China blocked you destroying North Korea. What will happen in Venezuela remains to be seen, but you haven't gone in already for a reason.

The days of the US stomping around the world killing the leaders and deposing governments have come to an end. It'll take y'all a while to adjust to the new status quo.

There's a period of adjustment going on at the moment. Not everyone can see how far-reaching it is likely to become.

On food though, I'd have thought the US is pretty self sufficent. Its the EU that will feel the pain the most.

[Gipsy]

As far as I am aware, Russia has stopped the sale of fertilizers to anyone until about the end of July, and, thereafter, it will only be available for sale to "Unfriendly" countries in rubles

[Texan77]

I understand the countries that need the fertilizers coming from Russia are not Europe or the USA but rather China, middle east and Africa.  I do not know how accurate the info, but I recently saw a video that said China is having another covid problem and food shortages. Meanwhile China buys grain from Ukraine that goes thru the black sea. They were having a problem before the war which is likely making it worse.

[Manny]

I recently saw a video that said China is having another covid problem

Yes, there are lockdowns in Shanghai and other places. I've got a new product held up because the couriers aren't working so I cant get the samples till it's relaxed.

As far as I am aware, Russia has stopped the sale of fertilizers to anyone until about the end of July, and, thereafter, it will only be available for sale to "Unfriendly" countries in rubles

Making people buy in Roubles is a political masterstroke.

[AJ]

Of course there's going to be a food crisis because Biden said there's going to be one. Biden wanted this war. Biden wants people to starve. Ukraine exports 8% of the world's grain. Russia exports 18% of the world's grain. Over 25% of the world's grain will be affected if Biden sanctions Russia's export of food and prolongs the war which affects Ukraine's production.

US, sanctions wont effect russian grain sells or production.
They will have a market for thier grain.
It might effect costs of grain.

Ukraines loss of production will effect costs
.


That's about it.

I'm.no biden.fan at all.
He is a bumbling decades  long political bureaucrat . Fundamentally worthless.

But most of your posts of late scream.tin foil conspiracy hat.

Every farmer I know,and I live in.the midwest and my grandparents, uncles etc were all.farmers, ha e known of various programs that paid the farmer fir set aside acreage(several.reasons for the programs)
Its not a new concept invented by sleepy joe.
Its many decades old.

I dont agree with subsidizing farming,i never have,but we as a nation subsidize a lot of businesses,  farming has as much merit as any other if we are going to.have such programs.

At any rate various *pay for not producing* programs  in agriculture is nothing new , there might be new ones that replaced old ones,but the concept has been around my entire life.

[AJ]

And Billyb...

Since you are convinced Biden corruption in Ukraine is on all.fronts like bio weapons  etc.
Why did ukraine lose roughly 800 million in defense equipment sales annually since 2016?

Wouldn't that go against both Ukraines gpd and bidens dirty fingers?

He is as corrupt as all.our politicians in Washington, but I think you give him way too.much credit.
He was a bumbling fool before,and now at a later age cant keep a coherent thought !
yet you have him as some evil global mastermind.
 I think you'd be better off  to concentrate on Killery

As far as Putin,  he has often played chess while the others played checkers.
I have always said that.
Like him or not, I admit he is savvy politically and economically for himself, I'm not sure that it always goes hand in hand with  Russias best interest,but that's opinion.
The fact remains he maneuvers well.in.the global geopolitical settings.

[Tom Cat]

I understand the countries that need the fertilizers coming from Russia are not Europe or the USA but rather China, middle east and Africa.  I do not know how accurate the info, but I recently saw a video that said China is having another covid problem and food shortages. Meanwhile China buys grain from Ukraine that goes thru the black sea. They were having a problem before the war which is likely making it worse.

If there really is going to be a shortage of fertilizer,  wouldn't it make sense to  ban  the use of fertilizer for lawns or  non food production?
Of course lawn fertilizer has chemicals added to reduce weeds,  but production could be altered for crop purposes only.
Makes me wonder if this is just another tactic of control?

[andrewfi]

I understand the countries that need the fertilizers coming from Russia are not Europe or the USA but rather China, middle east and Africa.  I do not know how accurate the info, but I recently saw a video that said China is having another covid problem and food shortages. Meanwhile China buys grain from Ukraine that goes thru the black sea. They were having a problem before the war which is likely making it worse.

If there really is going to be a shortage of fertilizer,  wouldn't it make sense to  ban  the use of fertilizer for lawns or  non food production?
Of course lawn fertilizer has chemicals added to reduce weeds,  but production could be altered for crop purposes only.
Makes me wonder if this is just another tactic of control?

I guess that there is already a lot of product already in the retail supply chain. What you suggest may happen, or simply happen due to market forces, but I doubt that retail packs of Roundup will get repurposed for farm use.