4 possible endings of this war, discuss!

[Markje]

Scenario 1:

Ukraine puts up a better fight than first noted, Putin is forced to retreat due to demonstrations and internal struggles in Russia.
Although there is once again peace between Ukraine/Russia there is much bad blood on both sides of the border and a new war is always possible.

Scenario 2:

Ukraine looses the war, but the victory is not complete. Many years the Russian aggressors face terrorist activity by patriotic Ukrainians. Eventually Putin leaves just like USA did after 20 years of afghanistan troubles.

Scenario 3:

Ukraine looses the war and the victory is complete. A new cold-war starts with the borders of the baltics, poland, bulgaria/romania as the newe iron curton. Any demonstration against the situation is surpressed with draconian penalties and violence.

Scenario 4:
Nato cannot stand by any longer and war is started. Some say it was a stray missile across latvia's borders, others claim Nato made the first move by enforcing a no-fly zone. Either way, war is now inevetable.

My thoughts:
Obviously, scenario 4 should be avoided at all costs. I consider scenario 1,2 the most probable. Perhaps there's a 5th scenario in putins head that I haven't thought up.

[Faux Pas]

Scenario 5

Russia stops toying war in Ukraine and completely over runs it triggering a complete war between Russia and NATO. Other countries take sides and it's the United Nations against everyone else. Nuclear stand off. Does anyone have the balls for that?

[Texan77]

My thoughts:
Obviously, scenario 4 should be avoided at all costs. I consider scenario 1,2 the most probable. Perhaps there's a 5th scenario in putins head that I haven't thought up.

The fifth scenario is Putin is removed from power in 2024 or sooner. New Russian Government and west becomes friends with sanctions being lifted. A great peace covers all of Europe. Anyway, this is the one I am voting for.

[AvHdB]

Interesting thread. I suspect one is off the table because it would be the beginning of the end of the regime of the V. Putin. Four is something I do not wish to think about. My guess is some hybrid variation of two and three being the “end” result.

My guess V. Putin is looking at his parachute, but does not have a landing zone. So war on, sadly.

[cufflinks]

My thoughts:
Obviously, scenario 4 should be avoided at all costs. I consider scenario 1,2 the most probable. Perhaps there's a 5th scenario in putins head that I haven't thought up.

The fifth scenario is Putin is removed from power in 2024 or sooner. New Russian Government and west become friends with sanctions being lifted. A great peace covers all of Europe. Anyway, this is the one I am voting for.

The current heavily sanctioned Russia scenario is in fact gumming up Communist Red China's belt and road initiative plans to own Europa so the Putin replacement scenario is plausible as China needs a peaceful Russia and Ukraine to build its high-speed silk road rail lines across both...

[Contrarian]

The only ending I want to see is Putin committing hara-kiri, and then the World has a collective sigh of happiness that he's gone; replaced by someone truly moderate who immediately offers to pay Billions of war damages for the lunatics war in Ukraine. 

And quite frankly that is what he is, a guy who has completely lost his marbles and needs to be permanently gone.

[AvHdB]

I now think we will see some version of scenario 2, there are reports that the areas of Ukraine that Russia has conquered are subject to hit and run raids by Ukrainian special forces and gorilla military detachments. Whether they can keep this pressure up and on is the question now.

[dorbradavid]

I did not see this (although #2 is close). Think Finland. Ukraine loses, and loses more territory than originally at risk.

New cold war, Germany goes back to buying Russian oil.

[rosco]

I think Russia will soon control the breakaway regions in Lugansk, Donetsk and possibly the land border on the Black Sea from Mariupol to Crimea. We'll get years of stalemate and like Crimea, it'll be adopted as Russian.

Things will calm down, Russia will be happy and Ukraine and the West will talk about the annexed areas for years to come.

Zelensky will return to the French Riviera with his hundreds of millions of dollars and enjoy his elevated profile.

[Texan77]

If Nazi in Russia are impowered if Russia is able to keep gains and the war will start back in a year or two for Ukraine invasion part four. This is already the third invasion of Ukraine where Russia was able to keep ground with each one and there is no reason to believe it will be the last if Russia is able to keep ground with this one. The next invasion is already being talked about on Russia TV and among politicians in Russia. Poland does not get invaded until all of Ukraine is under Russian control.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-says-poland-next-target-invasion-1711967

[WestCoast]

If Nazi in Russia are impowered if Russia is able to keep gains and the war will start back in a year or two for Ukraine invasion part four. This is already the third invasion of Ukraine where Russia was able to keep ground with each one and there is no reason to believe it will be the last if Russia is able to keep ground with this one. The next invasion is already being talked about on Russia TV and among politicians in Russia. Poland does not get invaded until all of Ukraine is under Russian control.

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-says-poland-next-target-invasion-1711967

Texan77, even Putin and his team of advisors is smart enough to know that invading Poland will only end in nuclear war or having the Kremlin under control of the US Army and the embarrassment of Putin committing suicide or being frog marched out of the Kremlin by the US Army.

Neither scenario is desirable for Putin. Seating in the Kremlin he might be able to dream of rebuilding the USSR but knows the reality is not only will Europe and the US not allow it but his only sometimes ally China is not likely to allow it. 

[Texan77]

It depends on what they get away with this time. It looks like the last couple of days has not gone well for Russia. WE will see if this is another turning point in the war or just a couple of good days for Ukraine.

Russia has been taking ground but losing so many troops in doing so it is not like it can continue at this rate. Putin fires five generals likely because of failures in Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-fires-five-generals-as-russia-s-military-failures-in-ukraine-continue/ar-AAXXO25?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=98dd314b7fd44b8bbdaa077ce6fa1ed5

[AvHdB]

I understood he retired an Admiral and one General in the last couple of days. Is it more dangerous in the Kremlin or on the Ukraine front for an officer?

[rosco]

Poland does not get invaded until all of Ukraine is under Russian control.

Lol 

[Manny]

I think the current plan is something vaguely Novorossiya shaped. They now control 20% of what was claimed to be Ukraine and aren’t far away from that. It’s likely to stop there in terms of controlled territory if the US lets Zelensky surrender and declare neutrality.

I think there’s a fair chance Poland is going to carve off a lump by stealth too.

What would remain of Ukraine then would be a smaller, land locked demilitarised country.

However, I think the US is happy to fight to the last Ukrainian. They will drag it out as long as possible hoping to destabilise Russia.

The US is about to supply Ukraine with long range missiles. Moscow is just 450km from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are stupid enough to strike Russia with them. Putin will take control of the whole country for security reasons if one lands near Moscow or on anything important I suspect.

[Manny]

having the Kremlin under control of the US Army

I imagine that’s a popular fantasy over the pond.

I think you’d see China joining in to prevent further US terrorism the moment NATO or the US steps on the pitch. China would wipe the floor with the US even if Russia couldn’t alone. They know the hope is to destabilise and break up Russia and advance to China’s border, with China as the next target.

[AvHdB]

I think you’d see China joining in to prevent further US terrorism the moment NATO or the US steps on the pitch. China would wipe the floor with the US even if Russia couldn’t alone.

As I recall some said that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be over by the end of February. Please remind us which month it is now?

As for China, granted they are more clever and intelligent, but there armed forces have not fought any large scale wars recently.

[andrewfi]

I think the current plan is something vaguely Novorossiya shaped. They now control 20% of what was claimed to be Ukraine and aren’t far away from that. It’s likely to stop there in terms of controlled territory if the US lets Zelensky surrender and declare neutrality.

I think there’s a fair chance Poland is going to carve off a lump by stealth too.

What would remain of Ukraine then would be a smaller, land locked demilitarised country.

However, I think the US is happy to fight to the last Ukrainian. They will drag it out as long as possible hoping to destabilise Russia.

The US is about to supply Ukraine with long range missiles. Moscow is just 450km from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are stupid enough to strike Russia with them. Putin will take control of the whole country for security reasons if one lands near Moscow or on anything important I suspect.

Nobody outside of the top-level commanders in Russia knows what is on the schedule. My guess, for what it is worth is that the initial goals have probably changed as events have rolled out.

Don't forget, that Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. That sets limits on what Russia can or cannot do in legal terms within Russia and, to some degree, externally. If Ukraine were to start lobbing missiles at Russia in any significant way then war will be declared and the entire army and reserves can be mobilised. Right now, it cannot.

As for the length of time being taken, well nobody knew what was going on or what the objective schedule was. So, the who said it'd be over by the end of February is important - coz nobody but Mr Putin or his advisors and top-level commanders have any idea.

From what Texan77 Joe Biden has said in the last couple of days, it is clear that for the US and thus Ukraine's government, the goal is to try to get to a point where the Ukrainians can have a decent negotiating position when they get back to negotiating a ceasefire/surrender. My take is that had the Ukraine government been free to act then a ceasefire and settlement would have been agreed upon weeks ago. Again, I do not know about the Russian side, but the Americans, for one reason or another, are pretty open about their changing goals in the conflict.

I rather doubt that the Ukrainian position is going to get any better - in fact, I rather think the opposite is true. Coupled with the fact that the Ukrainians are busily demilitarising all by themselves, I think that the Russians are perfectly fine with going slowly. It is going to take a long time for the western powers to rearm and every day of combat means that the stocks of weapons in NATO arsenals are further depleted.

[AvHdB]

I think the current plan is something vaguely Novorossiya shaped. They now control 20% of what was claimed to be Ukraine and aren’t far away from that. It’s likely to stop there in terms of controlled territory if the US lets Zelensky surrender and declare neutrality.

I think there’s a fair chance Poland is going to carve off a lump by stealth too.

What would remain of Ukraine then would be a smaller, land locked demilitarised country.

However, I think the US is happy to fight to the last Ukrainian. They will drag it out as long as possible hoping to destabilise Russia.

The US is about to supply Ukraine with long range missiles. Moscow is just 450km from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are stupid enough to strike Russia with them. Putin will take control of the whole country for security reasons if one lands near Moscow or on anything important I suspect.

Nobody outside of the top-level commanders in Russia knows what is on the schedule. My guess, for what it is worth is that the initial goals have probably changed as events have rolled out.

Don't forget, that Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. That sets limits on what Russia can or cannot do in legal terms within Russia and, to some degree, externally. If Ukraine were to start lobbing missiles at Russia in any significant way then war will be declared and the entire army and reserves can be mobilised. Right now, it cannot.

As for the length of time being taken, well nobody knew what was going on or what the objective schedule was. So, the who said it'd be over by the end of February is important - coz nobody but Mr Putin or his advisors and top-level commanders have any idea.

From what Texan77 Joe Biden has said in the last couple of days, it is clear that for the US and thus Ukraine's government, the goal is to try to get to a point where the Ukrainians can have a decent negotiating position when they get back to negotiating a ceasefire/surrender. My take is that had the Ukraine government been free to act then a ceasefire and settlement would have been agreed upon weeks ago. Again, I do not know about the Russian side, but the Americans, for one reason or another, are pretty open about their changing goals in the conflict.

I rather doubt that the Ukrainian position is going to get any better - in fact, I rather think the opposite is true. Coupled with the fact that the Ukrainians are busily demilitarising all by themselves, I think that the Russians are perfectly fine with going slowly. It is going to take a long time for the western powers to rearm and every day of combat means that the stocks of weapons in NATO arsenals are further depleted.

A thought occurred to me. I do not think that we have ever seen a similar military action before. Not between two 'modern' forces in such scale and such precision.

If NATO generals are not looking at what's going on and not shitting themselves I would be very surprised.

There are going to be lessons learned and classes taught about this operation for decades to come.

Certainly prophetic words, I guess the subtitle for the class will be ‘how not to do an invasion.’ Though it is reassuring you can think.

If you wish I can quote more of your words.

[WestCoast]

The US is about to supply Ukraine with long range missiles. Moscow is just 450km from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are stupid enough to strike Russia with them. Putin will take control of the whole country for security reasons if one lands near Moscow or on anything important I suspect.

According to you it's OK for Russia to lob missiles at Kiev or other parts of Ukraine from the Caspian Sea but if Ukraine were to fire missiles into Russia at Moscow or somewhere else in Russia that would be wrong?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/4/7343855/

[WestCoast]

having the Kremlin under control of the US Army

I imagine that’s a popular fantasy over the pond.

I think you’d see China joining in to prevent further US terrorism the moment NATO or the US steps on the pitch. China would wipe the floor with the US even if Russia couldn’t alone. They know the hope is to destabilise and break up Russia and advance to China’s border, with China as the next target.

China would side with Russia if Russia were to invade Poland? Why would China want to screw themselves over so badly?

How would China resupply its military in western Russia and Europe? It's a very long way from any Chinese military base in China to Moscow. Any Chinese supply flights would be targets for US missiles from Europe and from Asia. Ground transports of supplies would take forever and of course sabotaging any rail links would end supplies by train. Truck transport of supplies would take far longer and again are vulnerable to sabotage.

The best case scenario for a Russia/China teamup barring the use of nukes would be for Putin and Xi Jinping to be frog marched out of the respective compounds by the US military.

It appears the Chinese military is just as corrupt as the Russian military.

[Manny]

You're fantasising again, Westy. And I never mentioned Poland.

And Chinese supply flights would come via Russia and be the target of nobody.

And while you're fantasising about the US military, remember China's is larger. China would only act in China's interests, and an attack on Russia would very much be in their interests to intervene.

And let's not forget the US has just been defeated by blokes in flip flops and fled. Based on that, Moldova would be a challenge, never mind Russia or China.

[dorbradavid]

I think there’s a fair chance Poland is going to carve off a lump by stealth too.

It's not like a Polish Govt. hasn't done this before. Oops, they have. 

[Steveboy]

One thing is fur sure!

next years winner is!



 

[WestCoast]

You're fantasising again, Westy. And I never mentioned Poland.

And Chinese supply flights would come via Russia and be the target of nobody.

And while you're fantasising about the US military, remember China's is larger. China would only act in China's interests, and an attack on Russia would very much be in their interests to intervene.

According to a Kremlin friendly TV network Poland is Russia's next target. If China were fighting with Russia against NATO how would Chinese resupply flights flying over Russian territory protect Chinese flights from US missiles? Russia and China fighting against NATO means anything on Russian and Chinese territory is fair game. Just as anything on European and US territory is fair game.

Yes the Chinese military has more soldiers but again those soldiers are in China how are they going to be sent to Russia? By plane? Too slow and they be shot down. By train? It's a long train ride and tracks and bridges can be blown up quite easily by missiles and bombs. By truck? It's an even longer longer ride. The Ukrainian military has shown what it can do to truck convoys imagine how much better the US military can do with all their toys?

Why would aiding Russia be in China's interest? Aiding Russia in a military alliance that ends up in war with the US  would mean sanctions against China by Europe and the US. Between the war and sanctions who would China sell to after losing their biggest markets?


https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-says-poland-next-target-invasion-1711967