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Author Topic: To Bitcoin or not...  (Read 1167 times)

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Offline Dogsoldier

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To Bitcoin or not...
« on: January 13, 2022, 06:52:32 AM »
The troubles in Kazakhstan saw the price of Bitcoin dip a fair bit.
I wasn’t aware that the country and the US are where most bitcoin mining happens.

I took the opportunity to throw a few quid in.

A week or so later it’s on the up again.

Ethereum also seems a good prospect.

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 08:32:37 AM »
Yeah, I've continued buying into the dip with regular purchases and have a lump sum that'll be going in when I check the numbers. Looks like today is the day for that.

When prices are going up I tend to check prices too often. When they go down I pull back to reduce the temptation to do a fear sell. I just track the headlines from a few analysts and commentators. Those have turned round since yesterday. ;)

I also have Ether and a few others. I think that Ether will likely see bigger increases in percentage terms than Bitcoin but I tend to think of the portfolio value in terms of Bitcoin.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 08:48:19 AM »
Yeah, I've continued buying into the dip with regular purchases and have a lump sum that'll be going in when I check the numbers. Looks like today is the day for that.

When prices are going up I tend to check prices too often. When they go down I pull back to reduce the temptation to do a fear sell. I just track the headlines from a few analysts and commentators. Those have turned round since yesterday. ;)

I also have Ether and a few others. I think that Ether will likely see bigger increases in percentage terms than Bitcoin but I tend to think of the portfolio value in terms of Bitcoin.
You should have bought a few days ago. It’s on the up now, although in the last half hour it’s dipped a bit.

Long term, Ether does look quite attractive. I might spread my buys between the two.
Expecting a nice refund from the taxman so that will be a tidy little sum to bung in.


Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 09:42:31 AM »
I don't worry about buying the cheapest - or selling at the top very much.
I'm more interested in not overpaying in a downward market (apart from my regular purchases, often called dollar cost averaging). It's worked out pretty well for me over the past five years. :)

It's fun and exhilarating to watch the upward trends, but by turning off I avoid the stresses that can go along with a falling market. So, I sacrifice, possibly, a little bit of profit in exchange for peace of mind.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2022, 10:10:51 AM »
I just checked. We're looking at about 1% on Bitcoin, excluding a dip that lasted a matter of minutes - if I were to pull the trigger as I write this. On my portfolio, it is even less.
We're up, on Bitcoin, over the past 7 days by 0.5%. It's nothing. Portfolio wise, I am even on the month, the week and the day, so I am down on the portfolio through DCA, in real terms, by almost exactly what I put in during the period. Again, that's nothing.

Having looked at the numbers, I am going to hold my fire, but keep my eyes open.
It works, I have doubled my portfolio value over the past 12 months while Bitcoin, at the moment, is only up 16% on the year - and no, it isn't just purchases that made the difference. :)

I have written a little about what I have been doing over the past 12 months. It's arbitrage. I keep an idea of the value of coins against each other, which is why I look at my portfolio in Bitcoin rather than dollar, pound or euro terms. I move value from one coin to another to capture profit when coins move against each other. For example I bought a load of Shiba Inu. More than doubled the value, sold, and put it into Ether. Then, when the market started falling I moved much of my Ether back into Bitcoin. I did the same with some other coins. One can make money in a falling or rising market but it is definitely easier into a rising market. :)

Never worry about trying to time the market. You can't! That's where most traders end up losing. Watching trends even over just a few days is where it's at. Capture profit, take the profit and return to the long term base(s). There's folks have done much better than I. On the other hand, I have had a year when all my new toys and some of my travel has been paid for from Crypto profits and still given me a very happy return.

Some people might say, 'why didn't you sell at the top'? I am long term. Had I liquidated I might have had a nice profit. I'd also have a big tax liability. The returns I see give me a return that enables security, peace of mind, living standard benefits and even reduces my tax bill. The tax thing is, of course, different under different tax regimes.

Dogsoldier, when you get your tax refund, don't hang about. Put it into your favoured crypto. Statistiically, investing lump sums when you get them gives better returns over time than trying to time markets and also better than DCA - so don't do DCA out of a lump sum.
I can't recall the differences, and they were taken from stock markets, but the ranking for returns is as follows:
1) Lump sum investment
2) DCA
3) Timing the market

It may seem counterintuitive, and to be fair, they were looking at regular lump sums on an annual basis, so its kinda like DCA on steroids. Basically, don't hold on to the money!
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline cufflinks

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2022, 02:34:42 PM »
On my new Contract I have been stacking $10K in Blue Benjamins a month looking for the next intergenerational correction - due over the next 18 to 24 months...

So have been keeping my powder dry and updated my Crypto and Dividends strategic intelligence newsletters to be prepared when the market correction opportunity knocks...

Bought Cardano for 2.5 US Cents during the crypto winter and left it in my account for a couple years at $1.03 for a 33X return...

Harry Dent's Latest rants - short and to the point...  50% to 80% Correction now long overdue because of insane Fed perpetual QE and money printing.




Harry is Author of an Intergenerational Economic Cycles Book and Forecasts Newsletter. 


Offline cufflinks

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2022, 11:14:29 AM »
S&P Has PEAKED time to go to cash and keep your powder dry...

Or learn how to SHORT S&P Futures!



Offline Manny

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2022, 08:54:45 AM »
DS, what platform are you using to buy and store?
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2022, 01:27:22 PM »
DS, what platform are you using to buy and store?

I’m using PayPal at the moment. It’s the easiest and very user friendly. I did look at others but the faffing about with filing paperwork at registration put me off and as I already had a PP account it made sense.

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2022, 02:57:07 PM »
Many people using PayPal are not aware that they don't actually own or control the Bitcoin they thought they bought.

There's less KYC because you're not the owner. But you don't have both keys. You need both keys to be the owner. So, you can't transfer crypto to another wallet whether on another platform or a private wallet.

Nor can you buy anything with 'your' crypto. You need to sell it and make the transaction in a fiat currency which tends to increase the cost.

If I buy something using crypto, not only do I not have transaction costs but very often I get a discount on the price in fiat terms. Not possible when you don't have control over the crypto.

Many people might be concerned about PayPal's habit of freezing accounts - especially when they decide that they want to do more KYC.

All that might be fine for some people and, to be fair, PayPal is unlikely to do a rug pull on you. But if they choose to freeze your account then it'll feel like a rug pull.

More than that, you have no way to make purchases other than as a cash purchase. So you cannot automate transactions at particular price points and have to hope you get the price you expected when you see a target price.

Single best reason to use PayPal?
If you're the kind of person who cannot keep track of passwords. Then PayPal is great because as they have the private key you can ask them to restore access to your funds. That's not possible with normal platforms.

More info here: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/05/investing-in-bitcoin-with-paypal-what-you-should-know.html
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2022, 02:21:19 AM »
Many people using PayPal are not aware that they don't actually own or control the Bitcoin they thought they bought.

There's less KYC because you're not the owner. But you don't have both keys. You need both keys to be the owner. So, you can't transfer crypto to another wallet whether on another platform or a private wallet.

Nor can you buy anything with 'your' crypto. You need to sell it and make the transaction in a fiat currency which tends to increase the cost.

If I buy something using crypto, not only do I not have transaction costs but very often I get a discount on the price in fiat terms. Not possible when you don't have control over the crypto.

Many people might be concerned about PayPal's habit of freezing accounts - especially when they decide that they want to do more KYC.

All that might be fine for some people and, to be fair, PayPal is unlikely to do a rug pull on you. But if they choose to freeze your account then it'll feel like a rug pull.

More than that, you have no way to make purchases other than as a cash purchase. So you cannot automate transactions at particular price points and have to hope you get the price you expected when you see a target price.

Single best reason to use PayPal?
If you're the kind of person who cannot keep track of passwords. Then PayPal is great because as they have the private key you can ask them to restore access to your funds. That's not possible with normal platforms.

More info here: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/05/05/investing-in-bitcoin-with-paypal-what-you-should-know.html

Thanks Andrew

Some interesting points you’ve made and thanks for pointing out the downsides of using PP.

The whole bitcoin engagement is a learning process.

At the moment I have no intention of using bitcoins for retail purposes so it’s not an issue and the fact that I have no control over the coin which is held by PP as a proxy owner, any risk seems minimal as PP would have contractual obligations.
The only downside is I can’t use the coin to purchase other crypto and take advantage of fluctuations opportunely.

I’ve looked at Binance and was put off by the registration process which is why PP seemed an attractive option.
 
Further down the line I may look at changing platforms.

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2022, 05:30:03 AM »
I'd recommend Coinbase. You can get all you need and the KYC is not onerous - far better than PayPal ask for. If you've not done the PayPal enhanced process then you'll regret your choice if you don't like dealing such things.

If you end up putting much into crypto on PayPal you'll probably have to do their full KYC at some point, if you haven't done so yet. That seems to be related to volume of account activity. It's like boiling a frog.

As other people will tell you, 'contractual obligations' do not count for much if PayPal decides to freeze your account!

Suffice it to say, I do not leave balances on PayPal - except by accident or from refunds.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2022, 12:04:52 PM »
Trigger pulled today.

I'll look back and see if I got it right. If I did then I'll be dollar averaging on the way up.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2022, 11:02:13 PM »
Those pesky Russians! I (mis) timed that almost to the minute!
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2022, 12:26:32 AM »
Those pesky Russians! I (mis) timed that almost to the minute!

It’s a good time to buy though.

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2022, 04:44:58 AM »
See, that's the thing about trying to time the market. If your judgement is that medium to long term there's going to be significant price appreciation then all one does is makes a little less profit. So, yes, that's true. But an hour later would've been better. :)

On the other hand, I could've made more money by buying later.

That's where DCA comes in. In this case, I think that we are around the bottom. We know that there's a lot of buying going on. We know that coins are moving off exchanges into cold storage - indicating a lack of liquidity which signals increased prices to come.

So, I will drop another chunk in a few days and then at the same interval afterwards, I will repeat the process. That's on top of the weekly purchases I have been doing since 2020. Every week, without fail. :)

But I do reckon that had I dropped all my bundle into crypto the other day, I would be ahead in 12 months compared to DCA. But that's where emotions come in. :)
It takes balls to drop thousands into a market that is clearly not rising, even if one knows objectively, that rises are coming, are inevitable. DCA feels easier.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2022, 03:32:13 AM »
See, that's the thing about trying to time the market. If your judgement is that medium to long term there's going to be significant price appreciation then all one does is makes a little less profit. So, yes, that's true. But an hour later would've been better. :)

On the other hand, I could've made more money by buying later.

That's where DCA comes in. In this case, I think that we are around the bottom. We know that there's a lot of buying going on. We know that coins are moving off exchanges into cold storage - indicating a lack of liquidity which signals increased prices to come.

So, I will drop another chunk in a few days and then at the same interval afterwards, I will repeat the process. That's on top of the weekly purchases I have been doing since 2020. Every week, without fail. :)

But I do reckon that had I dropped all my bundle into crypto the other day, I would be ahead in 12 months compared to DCA. But that's where emotions come in. :)
It takes balls to drop thousands into a market that is clearly not rising, even if one knows objectively, that rises are coming, are inevitable. DCA feels easier.
I dropped some more squids in today. I also plan to purchase incrementally at regular intervals.

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2022, 03:44:35 AM »
I have a client who wants to be paid in BitCoin ..

How can I pay him? I mean can someone explain in black and white what I need to do, set it up, but credit on and so on..

Im a bit retarded on tech stuff having a phone is to much for me. :laugh:
I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

Offline Dogsoldier

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2022, 05:19:29 AM »
I have a client who wants to be paid in BitCoin ..

How can I pay him? I mean can someone explain in black and white what I need to do, set it up, but credit on and so on..

Im a bit retarded on tech stuff having a phone is to much for me. :laugh:
You’ll need to buy and store BTC in your own private wallet, I think, to be able to pay someone in coin.



Online andrewfi

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #19 on: January 23, 2022, 07:05:45 AM »
Steve, we covered this in chat. But for anyone else here is the basics.

1) open an account with a crypto trading platform. I use Coinbase.com. PayPal is no good for this.

I started out using the Coinbase website on my PC but quickly moved over to the mobile app.

2) complete any KYC (know your customer). This is quick and easy to do. There's different levels on Coinbase based on your level of activity.

3) link a payment method to the account so that you can buy Crypto. I have several payment methods. The easiest is a credit/debit card. Not all cards or accounts will work with Coinbase. I use Wise these days.

4) run through the basic training that Coinbase offers so you know what there is and how to use it.

5) Buy some crypto of whatever flavour you fancy. You can hold a balance in dollars, sterling euros etc and buy crypto from that. Or buy using a bank transfer or plastic. I tend to do the latter.

6) to pay somebody in crypto is easy enough. Just choose the amount and transfer it from your account to the address the recipient gives you.

Make sure that you use the correct address. There's no backsies if you get it wrong. If the address does not exist, IIRC, the value will leave your account and return a day or so later. Its not happened to me so don't quote me. But once it is in another wallet you can't reverse the transaction.

Basically, if you're used to buying and selling forex then everything will look quite familiar.

Make sure that you have gone through the training process before you go live with buying, selling and transferring any currency.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline cufflinks

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2022, 02:17:35 PM »

Attention all you RUA Cryptonauts - I have subscribed to several expensive Web3.0 Metaverse/Financial Infrastructure NFTs research newsletters - one cost me $2500 for two years' subscription and I have the 3 latest PDF reports and am promised monthly new research picks as the $135 Trillion Web3.0 Market rapidly evolves...  IIRC the Robinhoodies and WallStreetBettors and your assorted Pub Punters call this level of growth "Moon Shoots" or Rocketing to the Moon Etc - for some reason no Rockets to Mars, Jupiter, Saturn or the Aldebaran or Pileadian Solar Systems?  Go figure...

PM me with a secure end to end encrypted PROTONMAIL account ONLY and I will forward the 3 most recent PDF reports - this means You Manny and Lord Afi especially since Lord Afi is a natural Curmudgeon when at his critical thinking best - a critical level of analysis is exactly the second opinion I am looking for before I shoot my wad er ah umm spend a few fistfuls of Blue Benjamins on these prospective 1,000X Web3.0 moon shots...

Offline Contrarian

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2022, 05:21:45 PM »
$2,500??? Ouch. I got a one yr membership to Teeka Tiwari the pre-eminent crypto analyst for only 50 bucks. Palm Beach research group.

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"As you walk out on the way, the way appears."  Rumi

Offline cufflinks

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2022, 07:24:38 PM »
Yeah I have Big T as he calls himself Palm Beach Letter for $45 a yr then he upsells a half dozen premium report subscriptions for $2k plus.  No gems in the basic reports.  At the end of the day you get what you pay for in business and in life.

Offline Contrarian

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2022, 08:38:46 PM »
Yeah I have Big T as he calls himself Palm Beach Letter for $45 a yr then he upsells a half dozen premium report subscriptions for $2k plus.  No gems in the basic reports.  At the end of the day you get what you pay for in business and in life.


So you bought his 2K up sell package or is the one you got from a different pro? Yes I agree although you can get some good value ideas from his basic newsletter.
"As you walk out on the way, the way appears."  Rumi

Offline Manny

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Re: To Bitcoin or not...
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2022, 01:15:49 PM »
PROTONMAIL account ONLY

What's up with mail.ru pray tell?
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.