Warning of possible October default on U.S. debt

[Wiz]

Janet Yellen warns of a possible October
default on U.S. debt, swollen by the pandemic.

New York Times: Published Sept. 8, 2021, Updated Sept. 27, 2021

WASHINGTON — The United States could default on its debt sometime in October if Congress does not take action to raise or suspend the debt limit, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned on Wednesday.

The “extraordinary measures” that the Treasury Department has been employing to finance the government on a temporary basis since Aug. 1 will be exhausted next month, Ms. Yellen said in a letter to lawmakers. She added that the exact timing remained unclear but that time to avert an economic catastrophe was running out.

“Once all available measures and cash on hand are fully exhausted, the United States of America would be unable to meet its obligations for the first time in our history,” Ms. Yellen wrote.

To delay a default, Treasury has in the last month suspended investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund and the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.

The distribution of pandemic relief payments this year and uncertainty over incoming tax payments this month have made it more challenging than usual to predict when funds will run out. Ms. Yellen said that a default would cause “irreparable harm” to the U.S. economy and to global financial markets and that even coming close to defaulting could be harmful.

“We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States,” she wrote.

Democratic leaders have been insisting for months that Republicans join them in raising the debt ceiling, saying the government hit its last debt limit because of the spending and tax cutting of the Trump administration, what Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California on Wednesday called “the Trump credit card.”

Read More at: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/08/business/economy/united-states-debt-default.html

 

[Wiz]

Powell, Yellen warn of ‘devastating’
impact of US debt default

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before lawmakers on Tuesday to urge them to avoid the ‘devastating’ consequences of a government shutdown and debt default.

Continue funding the United States government — or the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic could grind to a halt just as the Delta variant threatens hard-won progress. That’s the urgent message Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell conveyed to US lawmakers on Tuesday.

Yellen and Powell testified before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs about the progress that has been made in bringing the US back from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of 1929-1939. They also warned in no uncertain terms about the risks that remain if Congress fails to pass a bill to fund the government and raise the country’s debt ceiling next month.

On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill that would avert a government shutdown by October 1 and a federal debt default that is expected in mid to late October.

Such a default could jeopardise confidence in the US dollar as a global reserve currency, Yellen said, and delay Social Security payments, paycheques for military personnel and other government payments that large groups of Americans rely on to make ends meet.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/28/powell-yellen-warn-of-devastating-impact-of-us-debt-default

[2tallbill]

Janet Yellen warns of a possible October
default on U.S. debt, swollen by the pandemic

Janet Yellen is a dishonest idiot. She lies about the meaning of default.

To the wacko left default is not spending all the money that you have
budgeted in previous years. In truth default is not paying your loans
and interest payments.

Janet Yellen is a liar because she knows the difference.
Merriam Webster: Economics : a failure to pay financial debts

It does not say that default is not spending 20 billion on building new
ships or not spending 40 billion on a space program for Martian exploration.

[Texan77]

This is because Wiz does not understand how the system works. This is a cycle that comes up every couple of years while politics debates spending habits in the USA then extent the debt ceiling. This being near a "default" is how political parties put pressure on the other party to change policy to what they like more. In the end no bond payments will be missed or anything close to it.

[Wiz]

This is because Wiz does not understand how the system works. This is a cycle that comes up every couple of years while politics debates spending habits in the USA then extent the debt ceiling. This being near a "default" is how political parties put pressure on the other party to change policy to what they like more. In the end no bond payments will be missed or anything close to it.

Is it my fault that you are not literate or able to explain or understand what the NY times is writing?

Thanks to Bill  who explained ..... a little:

"Janet Yellen is a liar because she knows the difference.
Merriam Webster: Economics : a failure to pay financial debts

It does not say that default is not spending 20 billion on building new
ships or not spending 40 billion on a space program for Martian exploration."

The fact of the matter is simple ..... if the debt is not paid on time, according to its conditions..... then it is a Default if you don't pay your debts.

In America when the Gov. Debt ceiling is reached...... than you increase the Gov Debt ceiling....printing more Government Debt and you avoid the default position but in reality you a are adding more debt to the Trillions outstanding, which of course you have no intention of paying it! You are just printing toilet paper and as long any other entity, nation or business is accepting and buy the Dollar..... than you still remain solvent! 

 
 

[Guile]

This is because Wiz does not understand how the system works.

Wiz doesn't understand alot of things, except for how to eat feta cheese! good thing I put him on ignore, less junk to read.

[AJ]

This is because Wiz does not understand how the system works. This is a cycle that comes up every couple of years while politics debates spending habits in the USA then extent the debt ceiling. This being near a "default" is how political parties put pressure on the other party to change policy to what they like more. In the end no bond payments will be missed or anything close to it.

Is it my fault that you are not literate or able to explain or understand what the NY times is writing?

Thanks to Bill  who explained ..... a little:

"Janet Yellen is a liar because she knows the difference.
Merriam Webster: Economics : a failure to pay financial debts

It does not say that default is not spending 20 billion on building new
ships or not spending 40 billion on a space program for Martian exploration."

The fact of the matter is simple ..... if the debt is not paid on time, according to its conditions..... then it is a Default if you don't pay your debts.

In America when the Gov. Debt ceiling is reached...... than you increase the Gov Debt ceiling....printing more Government Debt and you avoid the default position but in reality you a are adding more debt to the Trillions outstanding, which of course you have no intention of paying it! You are just printing toilet paper and as long any other entity, nation or business is accepting and buy the Dollar..... than you still remain solvent! 

 
 

True.
It's equally true of many many countries as far as how internal government debt is handled.

Raising the debt ceiling is natural anymore and just a paper/digit shuffle regarding anything beyond realistic accounting  of income to debt.

I'm unaware of any major power that doesn't play this game of percieved value against staggering debt.
Bonds aren't  simply rated by what holdings an entity has,but by percieved value.

I suppose some governments exist that could have the hard funds in hand to resolve /reconcile the books monthly, on actual debt,
but I'd love to see examples?

It's not generally how they work,and while its seems it would be reasonable,it isn't likely the best scenario overall for them to operate
on a basic cash or accrual accounting structure needed to be hard balanced.

[Contrarian]

Maybe this will help Wiz to finally understand that the USA is not going to default on our debt. I sort of doubt it, but it's worth trying. 


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-explains-the-simple-reason-why-the-us-will-never-default-on-its-debt-185105213.html

[andrewfi]

Hmmm... Buffet is being disingenuous. He's also staring opinion as fact. One might think of the price as self-serving propaganda.

Actually there's two choices. Inflation through devaluation or default. At some point that's a choice that will have to be made. Right now the choice is inflation. There's a 3rd option but we can discard that one as it won't happen - can't happen. That's to grow the economic productivity of the USA to absorb all the extra money created to this point and into the future. Technically its an option, practically, of course, we know it isn't.

Buffet is correct in what he says but only tells part of the case. In his position, money printing and consequent inflation is is more palatable option and the consequences will probably felt in full after he us dead and thus do not concern him in a visceral sense.

Inflation forms a vicious cycle. It starts slowly and many people might like a little inflation. Of course the less well-off won't, they are to far down the money flow. But just as it does for governments, same for indebted individuals and businesses close to the spigot of new money get to use it to pay down debt with devalued cash and buy up newly cheap assets that have not yet inflated their prices.

However, at a point inflation stops being predictable which means that people and institutions lose confidence in the future value of the currency. That means hyperinflation.

At that point, default is almost inevitable.

An argument can be made that default before the worst effects of inflation take place is a better option for the population. It shortens the period of pain and enables the economy to rebalance and rebuild. Of course in that situation the Warren Buffets of the USA might start to think that they should take a long walk off a short plank as they'd be wiped out.

So, for people like Warren Buffet default is anathema and he very much wants you lot to join him in that opinion even though default is almost certainly your best option at some point in the not too distant future.

In the meantime, do what Buffet does and transform cash into assets because when money has no meaning assets will define wealth. Real Estate, crypto and for those who believe paper gold is real - gold.

[Contrarian]

Hmmm... Buffet is being disingenuous. He's also staring opinion as fact. One might think of the price as self-serving propaganda.

Actually there's two choices. Inflation through devaluation or default. At some point that's a choice that will have to be made. Right now the choice is inflation. There's a 3rd option but we can discard that one as it won't happen - can't happen. That's to grow the economic productivity of the USA to absorb all the extra money created to this point and into the future. Technically its an option, practically, of course, we know it isn't.

Buffet is correct in what he says but only tells part of the case. In his position, money printing and consequent inflation is is more palatable option and the consequences will probably felt in full after he us dead and thus do not concern him in a visceral sense.

Inflation forms a vicious cycle. It starts slowly and many people might like a little inflation. Of course the less well-off won't, they are to far down the money flow. But just as it does for governments, same for indebted individuals and businesses close to the spigot of new money get to use it to pay down debt with devalued cash and buy up newly cheap assets that have not yet inflated their prices.

However, at a point inflation stops being predictable which means that people and institutions lose confidence in the future value of the currency. That means hyperinflation.

At that point, default is almost inevitable.

An argument can be made that default before the worst effects of inflation take place is a better option for the population. It shortens the period of pain and enables the economy to rebalance and rebuild. Of course in that situation the Warren Buffets of the USA might start to think that they should take a long walk off a short plank as they'd be wiped out.

So, for people like Warren Buffet default is anathema and he very much wants you lot to join him in that opinion even though default is almost certainly your best option at some point in the not too distant future.

In the meantime, do what Buffet does and transform cash into assets because when money has no meaning assets will define wealth. Real Estate, crypto and for those who believe paper gold is real - gold.

Andrew,
Was that a typo? I understood everything you wrote, until the end part which I bolded.
What in the world is paper gold? That doesn't make sense at all to me. Thx.

[2tallbill]

Actually there's two choices. Inflation through devaluation or default. At some point that's a choice that will have to be made. Right now the choice is inflation. There's a 3rd option but we can discard that one as it won't happen - can't happen. That's to grow the economic productivity of the USA to absorb all the extra money created to this point and into the future. Technically its an option, practically, of course, we know it isn't.

The fourth option would be to not increase the debt ceiling and to reduce spending to
match revenue. I know it's a cRazY idea but it is an option and it's an option that
I think would work. Then you use growth to eventually overcome your debt.

That's my two kopecks

Bill

[Contrarian]

Actually there's two choices. Inflation through devaluation or default. At some point that's a choice that will have to be made. Right now the choice is inflation. There's a 3rd option but we can discard that one as it won't happen - can't happen. That's to grow the economic productivity of the USA to absorb all the extra money created to this point and into the future. Technically its an option, practically, of course, we know it isn't.

The fourth option would be to not increase the debt ceiling and to reduce spending to
match revenue. I know it's a cRazY idea but it is an option and it's an option that
I think would work. Then you use growth to eventually overcome your debt.

That's my two kopecks

Bill

Sorry Bill that makes much too much sense. Especially for a bunch of white collar crooks who act like money grows on trees. 

[Wiz]

Hmmm... Buffet is being disingenuous. He's also staring opinion as fact. One might think of the price as self-serving propaganda.

more ...more ... more

So, for people like Warren Buffet default is anathema and he very much wants you lot to join him in that opinion even though default is almost certainly your best option at some point in the not too distant future.

In the meantime, do what Buffet does and transform cash into assets because when money has no meaning assets will define wealth. Real Estate, crypto and for those who believe paper gold is real - gold.

Andrew,
Was that a typo? I understood everything you wrote, until the end part which I bolded.
What in the world is paper gold? That doesn't make sense at all to me. Thx.

I usggest you make some more reading...... Bretton Woods system    and also
 The end of the Bretton Woods System (1972–81)

If you don't know, already, I am sure soon you will be educated why I call the US Dollar toilet paper  and why the $ Dollar has become the world reserve Currency!

Also why the USA have to borrow so much money to spent at your worldwide activities..... and while you are reading make a search to see how many heavy industrial activities you have......and also check to see who holds Trillions USA GOV $ Bonds........and while at it... find out how much real Gold USA has Officially in your vaults!

Enjoy reading as I am off to have fun with my beautiful girls...... (Grand daughters)   

Just done my PCR test FOR COVID 19 and I am NEGATIVE. 

[AvHdB]

Hmmm... Buffet is being disingenuous. He's also staring opinion as fact. One might think of the price as self-serving propaganda.

more ...more ... more

So, for people like Warren Buffet default is anathema and he very much wants you lot to join him in that opinion even though default is almost certainly your best option at some point in the not too distant future.

In the meantime, do what Buffet does and transform cash into assets because when money has no meaning assets will define wealth. Real Estate, crypto and for those who believe paper gold is real - gold.

Andrew,
Was that a typo? I understood everything you wrote, until the end part which I bolded.
What in the world is paper gold? That doesn't make sense at all to me. Thx.

I usggest you make some more reading...... Bretton Woods system    and also
 The end of the Bretton Woods System (1972–81)

If you don't know, already, I am sure soon you will be educated why I call the US Dollar toilet paper  and why the $ Dollar has become the world reserve Currency!

Also why the USA have to borrow so much money to spent at your worldwide activities..... and while you are reading make a search to see how many heavy industrial activities you have......and also check to see who holds Trillions USA GOV $ Bonds........and while at it... find out how much real Gold USA has Officially in your vaults!

Enjoy reading as I am off to have fun with my beautiful girls...... (Grand daughters)   

Just done my PCR test FOR COVID 19 and I am NEGATIVE. 

CONGRATULATIONS on a negative test!

Yes I understood what Andrew wrote as well as your post. In a general line I am off the same opinion. One could look at the situation as the US dollar is now backed by Treasury Notes sold on paying not even the interest on the debt owed. It is akin to giving a drug addict funds to purchase even more drugs!

The end of most addicts is not happy for them selves and those near to them.

[Wiz]

CONGRATULATIONS on a negative test!

Yes I understood what Andrew wrote as well as your post. In a general line I am off the same opinion. One could look at the situation as the US dollar is now backed by Treasury Notes sold on paying not even the interest on the debt owed. It is akin to giving a drug addict funds to purchase even more drugs!

The end of most addicts is not happy for them selves and those near to them.

Thanks for your congratulations which belong to Dr Stalin err... my wife, who has been triple vaccinated but  has to make a test twice a week for work, been trained and while she takes out her test she does open my box too.......and who aim I to go against Dr Mengele's orders.  I am not vaccinated but we take all precautions since March 2020 so when ever I will have to Travel I will know in Advance that the test will be Negative.....if I have to take 1-or 2 tests here or abroad!

I understand what Jacob Rothschild and his cronies on the FED are doing.....robbing the USA people but the facts are simple. As long foreigner's buy the Dollar for currency transactions around the Globe  the Dollar has a value.........China today is holding more than 1 $ Trillion US Government bonds and at present there are not looking of selling them ,,, so the dollar is safe because they also protect their exporting trade to USA, one of the biggest customers.....while Russia has chooses to play safe..... and every Dollar they get from Abroad they use  it to buy Gold, which secure's Rubble stability.....and a lot of other things.

I have already posted the reasons why USA together with their best friend UK, have been invading various countries.....  Iraq because Sadam started accepting Euro for his OIl Exports....., Libya Hillary killed Kandafi for creating a Pan African Bank with Gold Dinar as base.... and
the Zionist Banksters killed JFK for the Executive Order 11110 allowing the Government - Bank of America to print Dollars without paying commission  to FED stating..at the top  United states of America.... instead of the usual  Federal Bank of America, and not paying any more commission to ZInoists.
Well they paid the Marseilles Mafia who organised his execution.......

Good idea if you read and reach various subjects instead of waiting for stollen Art treasures to come up for sale so you can make money.......

Just read some bad news for our Masters from USA..... read yourself.

Is the US really heading for a second civil war?




PS Sorry about any Grammar mistakes... just woken up and still drinking chamomile to sooth my throat! 

[andrewfi]

Contrarian, yeah, gold is gold, right?

You'd think so, but not necessarily.
Most gold held by governments, businesses and individuals is held in custody by third parties. There is doubt that all that gold actually exists. The only gold that one can be certain of is that which one holds in one's own possession.

There's various forms of paper gold and here's an explanation of the most acceptable forms: https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/index/gold-investment/paper-gold-investment/

I was looking for but did not immediately find, information about scams where a vendor sells more gold than they actually hold. Esentlalliy it is a Ponzi scheme whereby buyers invest in 'gold' that is stored by the vendor. Because the buyer does not take delivery and relies upon the vendors' custody services for security, it is possible for the vendor to sell the same gold to more than one buyer. Much the same as how a bank can loan out a deposit multiple times to different people. As long as the custodian has enough gold on hand to meet demands for physical gold there is not a problem. My recollection may be faulty but I remember reading that the amount of gold held in custody is exceeded by the 'paper' notes for ownership of that gold several times over.

[andrewfi]

The fourth option would be to not increase the debt ceiling and to reduce spending to
match revenue. I know it's a cRazY idea but it is an option and it's an option that
I think would work. Then you use growth to eventually overcome your debt.

That's my two kopecks

Bill

Bill, that case is covered by the third, impossible, option I noted above.
That might have been an option in the past but is not possible now. You see, the amount of money created over the past couple of years dwarfs all of that previously created. It makes growth in productivity impossible from a mathematical perspective. Previously it was unlikely/impossible only from a practical perspective because it would require changes to the lives of USAians that would simply not be possible. If you want a civil war then try closing down all social support, all state-funded pensions and healthcare. close all schools and cut the wages of all Americans to similar levels as in China or Vietnam.

You see, paying down debt is difficult. Think of it from a personal perspective (and I actually did this many years ago - it was one of the hardest times in my life!). If you cut up your credit cards you cannot use them to buy anything. At the same time, you have to pay down the existing debt. Simply paying down debt reduces your disposable income so it hurts. But because you had been accustomed to supplementing your income with new credit, there's a second hit from not being able to use your credit cards! It is tough.

So, on a macroeconomic scale, not only does the economy not have to take out new loans (print more money) but you must pay back the existing debt. Nobody will vote for that, so it cannot happen.

Even worse, you refer to increasing productivity. Who is going to be motivated to work harder to increase productivity when they get less money and fewer benefits for that harder work?

[Contrarian]

Contrarian, yeah, gold is gold, right?

You'd think so, but not necessarily.
Most gold held by governments, businesses and individuals is held in custody by third parties. There is doubt that all that gold actually exists. The only gold that one can be certain of is that which one holds in one's own possession.

That's always been my opinion, and what you wrote following that is what I thought you were on about.

Yeah I would never buy into a gold "mutual fund" where you don't get actual ownership. Paper as you say and open to fraud.

[2tallbill]

That might have been an option in the past but is not possible now.
You see, the amount of money created over the past couple of years
dwarfs all of that previously created.

You are looking at this from a Euro perspective. It would take hours to dissect
all the various inaccuracies in your post as it relates to the USA.

Previously it was unlikely/impossible only from a practical perspective because it would require changes to the lives of USAians that would simply not be possible. If you want a civil war then try closing down all social support, all state-funded pensions and healthcare. close all schools and cut the wages of all Americans to similar levels as in China or Vietnam.

Here is the part that you have the most issues per word.

The USA has a social net that is 1/8 or maybe 1/16 as comprehensive as in Europe.
We don't have the percentage of State funded pensions as Europe does. We don't
have the social support and healthcare costs as Europe either.

The US government can't cut peoples wages, our people make 40% more on average
than a Euro citizen does doing the same job. The federal government doesn't need to
fund schools. Historically it's been a local expense.   

Seriously, if the US got into less wars and streamlined the military and social programs
it would not be nearly as daunting as you claim. We have 330 million people most of
whom are working. We have natural resources. The USA collects $3.71 trillion per year
in taxes.

A slightly leaner US government could be ran with $3.71 trillion dollars per year.

 

[Contrarian]

That might have been an option in the past but is not possible now.
You see, the amount of money created over the past couple of years
dwarfs all of that previously created.

You are looking at this from a Euro perspective. It would take hours to dissect
all the various inaccuracies in your post as it relates to the USA.

Previously it was unlikely/impossible only from a practical perspective because it would require changes to the lives of USAians that would simply not be possible. If you want a civil war then try closing down all social support, all state-funded pensions and healthcare. close all schools and cut the wages of all Americans to similar levels as in China or Vietnam.

Here is the part that you have the most issues per word.

The USA has a social net that is 1/8 or maybe 1/16 as comprehensive as in Europe.
We don't have the percentage of State funded pensions as Europe does. We don't
have the social support and healthcare costs as Europe either.

The US government can't cut peoples wages, our people make 40% more on average
than a Euro citizen does doing the same job. The federal government doesn't need to
fund schools. Historically it's been a local expense.   

Seriously, if the US got into less wars and streamlined the military and social programs
it would not be nearly as daunting as you claim. We have 330 million people most of
whom are working. We have natural resources. The USA collects $3.71 trillion per year
in taxes.

A slightly leaner US government could be ran with $3.71 trillion dollars per year.

Yes to the parts I bolded, but the people who really control the USA don't want any of that. They control the parasitical politicians (it means many ticks in latin) and they want to bankrupt the USA. That's a big part of the plan needed for them to form their "one world government". Bankrupt the USA and then offer to "save" us by totally giving away what little sovereignty we have left to give.

[andrewfi]

Bill, there's more than one way to skin a cat!

For example, if wages are not increased then, guess what - over time, that's the same as a wage cut.
If taxes are increased then, as far as the employee is concerned - that's a wage cut.
If low-wage jobs are created then wages overall will fall.
When a new employee is hired she might be offered a lower wage than the previous incumbent - that's a wage cut.

It does not matter about the size of the social safety net relative to other economies, this is about the USA.

I am not looking at this from a EURO perspective, whatever you think that means. I look at it from an economic perspective.

As I noted and you seemed to have missed, the option is not possible,w which is why I discounted it. Please do not rag on me telling me stuff that I already know and briefly explained to you. If you need help with economics let me know and I will share some useful textbooks to get you started.

Remember, that not only do you need to increase the real size of your economy to absorb future money printing but to account for that which has already happened. That's why I discounted the '4th option' as you called it - the one I referred to in my original post as the 3rd option.
To help you out: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 look at the curve since February 2020 to understand what I am writing about.

I did not refer to this article before I wrote my post above but it contains information that is stuff I already know, but that most people do not: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418733-gold-feds-shutting-down-money-supply-data-is-alarming

Oh, a final thought. The United States has ceased tracking and publishing the M1 and M2 money supply data. TBH, I am sure that the data is still collected, but as it makes frightening reading it is no longer provided for the masses. So, the M1 chart stops in early 2021. However, the spending/quantitative easing/money-printing did not.

[2tallbill]

Bill, there's more than one way to skin a cat!

For example, if wages are not increased then, guess what - over time, that's
the same as a wage cut.

If taxes are increased then, as far as the employee is concerned - that's a wage cut.
If low-wage jobs are created then wages overall will fall.
When a new employee is hired she might be offered a lower wage than the previous
incumbent - that's a wage cut.

For sure, there is more than one way to skin the cat, and there are a hundred
ways to measure the skin of the cat as well. Wages are mostly a result of supply
and demand If wages increase slower than inflation then it's a wage cut.

Remember, that not only do you need to increase the real size of your economy to absorb future money printing but to account for that which has already happened. That's why I discounted the '4th option' as you called it - the one I referred to in my original post as the 3rd option.

In my 4th option, I proposed restricting spending to existing revenue's Money printing would
be eliminated. There are a hundred ways that an economy can increase. I could list a bunch
of them, but that might be telling you things that you already know, which you don't want
me to get into.

If you need help with economics let me know and I will share some useful textbooks to get you started.

Stop with the insults, you are more than capable of having a conversation/debate
without resorting to these tactics.