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Author Topic: Stocks and Shares  (Read 45546 times)

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Offline Steveboy

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #25 on: May 21, 2020, 09:45:57 AM »
Surely there is no money in selling stocks and shares if its just a few bob's worth your buying?



no not really, unless its long term


So maybe some one could enlighten me what profit you could expect to make on say 50k over 12 months investing and buying then exactly 12 months later cashing it all in and getting your cash back with profit ?? How much would you expect to get back?

52k?

55K?

75K?

100K?

Or ?


Current interest rates are very low of course, the Bank of England base rate is at ca.0.1% and I doubt it will rise very much in the foreseeable future. So the interest you can earn if you just put your money in a Cash ISA is not going to build up very much.

Lets assume a 2% interest rate (that's very generous)  £10,000 put away in a cash savings account today, (assume you want to double your money)  will compound to just £20K but that is over the course of 40 years, how many here have that long to wait  :)

By contrast, investing that same £10,000 in the stock market at an annual return of, say, 5% (you can do better but also worse) that will compound to a much more impressive £70K over the same period, but both examples are long term outlooks, making good returns in the short term is much harder, although there may be other income to derive from shares in the form of dividends etc.

It really depends on ones risk aversion.

HTH

By contrast, investing that same £10,000 in the stock market at an annual return of, say, 5% (you can do better but also worse) that will compound to a much more impressive £70K over the same period, but both examples are long term outlooks, making good returns in the short term is much harder, although there may be other income to derive from shares in the form of dividends etc.


But in 40 years time 70,000K will buy exactly what? A second hand car if your lucky .. It would be no different to having the 10K right now sure? But you will just be a little older 40 years to be precise ?

Agreed, but I only used 40 years to show how long it would take to double your money if you put it in a bank savings account paying 2% and what the same amount could in theory make on the SM.  I wouldn't want to have to wait 40 years for sure.


From what I see long term investments simply are not worth much unless your investing absolutely thousands and then only if that is just spare pocket money you found down the back of the sofa..

20-30-40 years is way way to long to invest for anyone , any thing can happen like you get a heart attack and die!

From what I understand (Just a simpleton from Dorset) if you have for example 50k you would need to double that to say 100/130 within 3/4 years max to make it worth while..

I probably have a strange way of looking at things.. for example a house .. a normal person buys a house for say 300k over 25 years and at the end of the term he has paid probably 700K with interest..

In 25 years time you need to sell that house for one hell of a lot before you made any big profit cos in 25 years time that cash from the house aint going to go far..unless you brought a total shit hole house from the start and fixed it all up like a palace..

I think unless you have either hundreds of thousands or millions on the stock market to play with your wasting your time, unless its like a kind of hobby.. a little like having some chickens in the garden who give you some eggs each week .. just a hobby..


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Online andrewfi

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #26 on: May 21, 2020, 11:34:04 AM »
Steve, it is worth doing due to the power of compounding (compound interest) but yes, typically long term with ongoing additions to the savings. That's how pensions work.

A relatively small amount put into a pension at 18 can become a very useful pension over 45 or so years but even better when it's added to every month.

I reckon that for most people running a relatively successful business that there will a much better return on investment in the business than in the stick market. That said, there are real disadvantages to doing so.
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Offline Steveboy

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #27 on: May 21, 2020, 11:40:38 AM »
Steve, it is worth doing due to the power of compounding (compound interest) but yes, typically long term with ongoing additions to the savings. That's how pensions work.

A relatively small amount put into a pension at 18 can become a very useful pension over 45 or so years but even better when it's added to every month.

I reckon that for most people running a relatively successful business that there will a much better return on investment in the business than in the stick market. That said, there are real disadvantages to doing so.

I have always been a non believer of any type of pension..  that may change or would of changed years ago if I had absolutely wads of cash.. I never so never had or have a pension, to late now I'm nearly 44 already ..lol

Problem with pensions is they take a huge chunk of your salary if you want some thing worth having when your older, so as most of the UK lives hand to mouth a big pension is just for the lucky few..

I guess I will get some kind of pension from the UK maybe 35quid a week  :laugh:
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Offline Manny

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #28 on: May 21, 2020, 12:35:24 PM »
From what I understand (Just a simpleton from Dorset) if you have for example 50k you would need to double that to say 100/130 within 3/4 years max to make it worth while.

Yes and no. In business you surely would. You are working. Stocks are passive. Theres two basic profiles: Short term traders jump in and out and try to get a profit. Same principle as market trading really. Long term traders may use them instead of savings for a portion of their cash. For example, if you have some money sitting around in the bank doing nothing it's earning 1.5% at best in the UK (Although wifey gets I think 7% in Russia). With that money in stocks, you have dividend income that likely exceeds that 1.5% and a probable long term gain on capital (depending what you buy). But like any gamble, only put in what you can afford to lose and you won't cry too much when the next virus comes along. 

You'll never beat inflation in the bank. So money in the bank is losing money in real terms.

I started this topic now as shares are on the floor, and the only way is up as the world recovers. Like when I was shouting to buy the Rouble when it was almost 100/£1, now is the time to buy stock. March was better though if you had the balls to call the bottom.......I felt it was bottom but didn't have the kahunas to jump in then.

unless its like a kind of hobby.. a little like having some chickens in the garden who give you some eggs each week .. just a hobby..

Can be that too.
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<< - Read a trip report from South Korea, China and Hong Kong >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Online andrewfi

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #29 on: May 21, 2020, 02:34:31 PM »
A friend with plenty of excess cash started trading on his own account. Now he's taken the more sensible, less stressful, and almost certainly more profitable approach of using tracker funds.

It's rare for even experienced investors (as opposed to traders) to beat a well diversified tracker in the medium to long term.

Traders, with a much shorter horizon can strike lucky, but again, long term, almost all lose money. Trading platforms these days have to publish data on the success rate of their clients. I have seen numbers in the high 70- low 80% lose money.

So, 80% lose money, Pareto suggests that of the remaining 20% most will do little more than break even.
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Offline Steveboy

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2020, 03:05:11 PM »
A friend with plenty of excess cash started trading on his own account. Now he's taken the more sensible, less stressful, and almost certainly more profitable approach of using tracker funds.

It's rare for even experienced investors (as opposed to traders) to beat a well diversified tracker in the medium to long term.

Traders, with a much shorter horizon can strike lucky, but again, long term, almost all lose money. Trading platforms these days have to publish data on the success rate of their clients. I have seen numbers in the high 70- low 80% lose money.

So, 80% lose money, Pareto suggests that of the remaining 20% most will do little more than break even.

Yes that is what I always thought and still kind of do.. but as I said I have a few friends not making a few quid but making hundreds of thousands and have been for nearly 20 years, of course I never believe or trust anyone.. but masses of property must say some thing..and its Russia it is not possible to have all that on the tick.. its all bought for cash, one is even a member of the premier VIP clients for a big building company..seems investing profits into property is the thing to do..

I have another friend in the UK who is a trader.. but kind of part time but he trades also hundreds of thousands , but does not make vast fortunes but does ok, told me recently he has a new formula and has had some good profits coming in, says now is a good time to make a killing, I went to school with him known him for years so no doggy guy..

Im not interested in trading though...

I got my own plan and every single dime is going into Russian property over the next few years.. 10k spare.. buys a studio  well a big churnk 12 months before completion..
I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

Offline Texan77

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #31 on: May 21, 2020, 03:33:18 PM »
My last stock trade came inside information I got here from this forum. Manny said China was shut down Saturday in late February. Monday morning I shorted the S & P with a triple ex bear Fund and held for three weeks.

I also bought Moderna I sold it too soon but moderna went on to go up four times what I paid for it and it seems to still be going.

I am completely out of the market now. I have day traded but it was stressful and often I ended up giving the profits.

Airlines and other travel stocks could make a big come back if you can wait. Oil is likely to be in short supply in a couple of years so there is something possible there. With renew attention, drug companies will likely get more funding from governments for all sorts of things. Companies that make vaccines might do well. That is just some of my thoughts. 
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

Offline Manny

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #32 on: May 21, 2020, 03:42:08 PM »
I have been watching EasyJet for a few days. I know Stelios, the original founder has been challenging the current leadership about their lavish spending plans on new planes.

I read on Twitter this morning they’ll resume flying on the 15th June with all passengers and staff in masks. The big boardroom showdown on the overspending is tomorrow and Stelios will probably win.

At opening trading today the stock started to creep up, I threw a grand in the pot. There may be some profit short-term but if not it’ll be a good punt medium-term once they are flying again.

The cautious market thinks Stelios a loose cannon. I’ve always liked him. EasyJet used to be a good stock in the day trade days. It’s on the floor now. I can’t see it going much lower than recently.

Stelios founded the company - he knows what’s best for it than some suits.
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<< - Read a trip report from South Korea, China and Hong Kong >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Offline cufflinks

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #33 on: May 21, 2020, 05:11:29 PM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down... Q2 numbers will be dire with as many as 50 million drawing unemployment insurance and 20 million Gig economy workers in scramble mode... State and Municipal tax revs in the tank ... Gov workers layoffs coming.

MAfiosiPelosis $3Trillion liberals AOC squad and BernieBros fantasy wishlist not going to pass US Senate without business covid liability protections.  So food riots and SHTF social unrest in diversity enriched urban zones requiring national guard martial law highly likely as states run out of unemployment funds.   So massive C leg down to S&P 1800 - 1700 range probable....that is where bargains bottom fishing to be had despite what Fed, BoE and EU etc central banks try to minimize corrective impulses in the markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-four-companies-get-the-most-love-from-top-performing-market-newsletters-and-not-one-is-a-faang-stock-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Offline Contrarian

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #34 on: May 21, 2020, 09:48:27 PM »
RBC analyst called Boeing “outperform” and it already went up $5 on that news. 10 shares would cost only $1,400 US at the current after hours price. I don’t think that price price will last for very long, yet unlike moby I don’t have a crystal ball.  :chuckle:


https://www.dallasnews.com/business/airlines/2020/05/21/southwest-airlines-ceo-boeing-737-max-hopefully-flying-again-in-late-2020/?outputType=amp

Offline Manny

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #35 on: May 22, 2020, 12:13:06 AM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down...

You’re not predicting a V shaped recovery then?

There’s been a lot of QE this side of the pond.
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<< - Read a trip report from South Korea, China and Hong Kong >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Offline Steveboy

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #36 on: May 22, 2020, 03:06:33 AM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down... Q2 numbers will be dire with as many as 50 million drawing unemployment insurance and 20 million Gig economy workers in scramble mode... State and Municipal tax revs in the tank ... Gov workers layoffs coming.

MAfiosiPelosis $3Trillion liberals AOC squad and BernieBros fantasy wishlist not going to pass US Senate without business covid liability protections.  So food riots and SHTF social unrest in diversity enriched urban zones requiring national guard martial law highly likely as states run out of unemployment funds.   So massive C leg down to S&P 1800 - 1700 range probable....that is where bargains bottom fishing to be had despite what Fed, BoE and EU etc central banks try to minimize corrective impulses in the markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-four-companies-get-the-most-love-from-top-performing-market-newsletters-and-not-one-is-a-faang-stock-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Sorry but if you come in my place trying to sell me shares with all that jargon I would open the door and say "Do one"  :laugh:  Just saying :)
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Offline msmoby

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2020, 04:17:31 AM »
I have stock and shares in pensions and have them managed, last most of us..

The Biggest dead cert is selling the GBP short every time it looks like the UK wants to end the 'transition period' with the EU with no agreement on trade ...  I made 12% in 10 days.
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Offline cufflinks

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2020, 08:52:07 AM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down... Q2 numbers will be dire with as many as 50 million drawing unemployment insurance and 20 million Gig economy workers in scramble mode... State and Municipal tax revs in the tank ... Gov workers layoffs coming.

MAfiosiPelosis $3Trillion liberals AOC squad and BernieBros fantasy wishlist not going to pass US Senate without business covid liability protections.  So food riots and SHTF social unrest in diversity enriched urban zones requiring national guard martial law highly likely as states run out of unemployment funds.   So massive C leg down to S&P 1800 - 1700 range probable....that is where bargains bottom fishing to be had despite what Fed, BoE and EU etc central banks try to minimize corrective impulses in the markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-four-companies-get-the-most-love-from-top-performing-market-newsletters-and-not-one-is-a-faang-stock-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Sorry but if you come in my place trying to sell me shares with all that jargon I would open the door and say "Do one"  :laugh:  Just saying :)

LOL I actually respect you SB. You burst 60 yo horse faced snaggle toothed blokes fantasies that they can snag a StP Nordic 10 model with an MD degree willing to care for their decrepit carcasses in exchange for a Western passport.  Then if they come to their senses you hook them up with an age appropriate companion who wants that passport as a plan B as covid ravages the world.

The above is Advanced Intelligence Technical Analysis based upon maths that an institutional Bloke introduced me to a few years ago over championship sports and victory cigars.  I too was sceptical until I actually studied and learned the maths and was astounded how profitable AITA is.  I don't have to sell phocking nothing to phocking No phocking body now.

I only shared as so many blokes are thinking this is the bottom and it is not.  If you can keep your Cox in your Sox another month or so you will be shocked how low we go in the Global Depression of 2020... Gold Silver and Bitcoin likely to retrace with those jumping in now on margin to their shock being margin called in short squeeze as we make the real bottom... So if anyone wants to jump in balls deep now on margin with market sharks you have been warned... Fibonacci is merciless.


Offline Manny

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #39 on: May 22, 2020, 09:58:07 AM »
Quote from: Cuffy
so many blokes are thinking this is the bottom and it is not.

The worst may still be to come over the pond as you have the virus still ravaging your country. I think the UK hit the bottom in March, it was roughly in line with the 2008 financial crisis that your lot caused with all your Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stuff.

I have been watching EasyJet for a few days. I know Stelios, the original founder has been challenging the current leadership about their lavish spending plans on new planes.

The big boardroom showdown on the overspending is tomorrow and Stelios will probably win.

Stelios didn't manage to get the board changed, but he's contesting the vote as he says Airbus skewed it dishonestly, and he says there were bribes paid for Airbus contracts. He is offering £6m to anyone who can help him prove corruption. Interesting times.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-easyjet/easyjet-founder-fails-to-oust-management-proxy-votes-show-idUSKBN22Y18N?il=0
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<< - Read a trip report from South Korea, China and Hong Kong >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Offline cufflinks

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #40 on: May 22, 2020, 04:48:24 PM »
Good for Stelios putting his money where his mouth is... As for Freddie and Fannie stuff 2008-2009 will look like a bump in the road compared to what is to come in the Covid 2020  Global Depression... Forewarned is forarmed now is the time to keep your powder dry as Q2 and Q3 play out.

Offline Texan77

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #41 on: May 22, 2020, 10:26:13 PM »
Small airlines may not get government help. Most likely most airlines will need help to survive this. There is likely a second wave of this virus coming and much of the international air travel could be limited until there is a vaccine.  It does not look to me like the market has priced in a second wave. This second wave could make the C down like confederate was writing about in his post where the market makes lower lows. Some people are saying the second wave might be worse than the first because countries are not as likely to shut down like they did in the first wave but rather manage it with mask, social distancing and testing.   
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

Offline Manny

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #42 on: May 23, 2020, 12:12:52 AM »
If there was to be a second wave, you’d see it in China by now, surely? All that’s happening there is little pockets of outbreak they are jumping on.

I agree the market hasn’t priced a potential 2nd as it doesn’t think there’ll be one. I think Cuffy is being overly pessimistic.
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<< - Read a trip report from South Korea, China and Hong Kong >>here<<

Look what the American media makes some people believe:
Putin often threatens to strike US with nuclear weapons.

Offline msmoby

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #43 on: May 23, 2020, 02:01:44 AM »
Adidas I really like and what about Vodaphone?

It's VodaFone

Show how attentive you are..

I was one of their first mobile phone customers.. hence I'd know.

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Spurious claims about 'seeing action' with the Blue Berets are debunked >here<

Here is my Russophobia/Kremlinphobia topic

Offline Steveboy

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #44 on: May 23, 2020, 05:16:39 AM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down... Q2 numbers will be dire with as many as 50 million drawing unemployment insurance and 20 million Gig economy workers in scramble mode... State and Municipal tax revs in the tank ... Gov workers layoffs coming.

MAfiosiPelosis $3Trillion liberals AOC squad and BernieBros fantasy wishlist not going to pass US Senate without business covid liability protections.  So food riots and SHTF social unrest in diversity enriched urban zones requiring national guard martial law highly likely as states run out of unemployment funds.   So massive C leg down to S&P 1800 - 1700 range probable....that is where bargains bottom fishing to be had despite what Fed, BoE and EU etc central banks try to minimize corrective impulses in the markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-four-companies-get-the-most-love-from-top-performing-market-newsletters-and-not-one-is-a-faang-stock-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Sorry but if you come in my place trying to sell me shares with all that jargon I would open the door and say "Do one"  :laugh:  Just saying :)

LOL I actually respect you SB. You burst 60 yo horse faced snaggle toothed blokes fantasies that they can snag a StP Nordic 10 model with an MD degree willing to care for their decrepit carcasses in exchange for a Western passport.  Then if they come to their senses you hook them up with an age appropriate companion who wants that passport as a plan B as covid ravages the world.

The above is Advanced Intelligence Technical Analysis based upon maths that an institutional Bloke introduced me to a few years ago over championship sports and victory cigars.  I too was sceptical until I actually studied and learned the maths and was astounded how profitable AITA is.  I don't have to sell phocking nothing to phocking No phocking body now.

I only shared as so many blokes are thinking this is the bottom and it is not.  If you can keep your Cox in your Sox another month or so you will be shocked how low we go in the Global Depression of 2020... Gold Silver and Bitcoin likely to retrace with those jumping in now on margin to their shock being margin called in short squeeze as we make the real bottom... So if anyone wants to jump in balls deep now on margin with market sharks you have been warned... Fibonacci is merciless.


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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/steveBvirisonics/curestheworld

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https://www.thelancet.com/steveBvirisonics/theworldishisoyster


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 tiphat Good luck!

Im hoping to make a trillion$ Monday.. :thumbsup:





I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

Online AvHdB

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #45 on: May 23, 2020, 06:45:24 AM »
Interesting value picks on the floor... After major A leg down in March now at top of major B wave .618 retracement turning into corrective C leg down... Q2 numbers will be dire with as many as 50 million drawing unemployment insurance and 20 million Gig economy workers in scramble mode... State and Municipal tax revs in the tank ... Gov workers layoffs coming.

MAfiosiPelosis $3Trillion liberals AOC squad and BernieBros fantasy wishlist not going to pass US Senate without business covid liability protections.  So food riots and SHTF social unrest in diversity enriched urban zones requiring national guard martial law highly likely as states run out of unemployment funds.   So massive C leg down to S&P 1800 - 1700 range probable....that is where bargains bottom fishing to be had despite what Fed, BoE and EU etc central banks try to minimize corrective impulses in the markets.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-four-companies-get-the-most-love-from-top-performing-market-newsletters-and-not-one-is-a-faang-stock-2020-05-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Sorry but if you come in my place trying to sell me shares with all that jargon I would open the door and say "Do one"  :laugh:  Just saying :)

LOL I actually respect you SB. You burst 60 yo horse faced snaggle toothed blokes fantasies that they can snag a StP Nordic 10 model with an MD degree willing to care for their decrepit carcasses in exchange for a Western passport.  Then if they come to their senses you hook them up with an age appropriate companion who wants that passport as a plan B as covid ravages the world.

The above is Advanced Intelligence Technical Analysis based upon maths that an institutional Bloke introduced me to a few years ago over championship sports and victory cigars.  I too was sceptical until I actually studied and learned the maths and was astounded how profitable AITA is.  I don't have to sell phocking nothing to phocking No phocking body now.

I only shared as so many blokes are thinking this is the bottom and it is not.  If you can keep your Cox in your Sox another month or so you will be shocked how low we go in the Global Depression of 2020... Gold Silver and Bitcoin likely to retrace with those jumping in now on margin to their shock being margin called in short squeeze as we make the real bottom... So if anyone wants to jump in balls deep now on margin with market sharks you have been warned... Fibonacci is merciless.


Ok look I got a little secret to tell you..

Many years ago I studied nano technology and viral biology so what with the virus arriving no better time to put my thinking cap on.. in the last 12 months I have been drinking this special water its like a kind of anti septic drink smells and tastes like anti septic.. but a few glasses each day kills every thing!!



With this in mind I created a little compound to add and FU*** guess what?? Yes it cures the bloody Covid 19 virus!! I kept this real quiet the last few months , set up steveBvirisonics inc
We rushed the testing through and its ready to go global from Monday next week.. tiphat

So last week we set up an IPO and will open on the New York stock exchange Monday morning, you can read her about it..

https://www.nyse.com/steveBvirisonics/

You can also read a story we had with the Sunday time here

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/steveBvirisonics/curestheworld

We are also featured in the lancet

https://www.thelancet.com/steveBvirisonics/theworldishisoyster


Im giving everyone a chance here to buy some of my stock Monday morning as soon as trading starts buy over 250k And I'm giving you 15% extra, what do you need to do?

Put in this promo code when purchasing on any trading platform..

steveBvirisonics/The-world-is-cured

 tiphat Good luck!

Im hoping to make a trillion$ Monday.. :thumbsup:

It would not surprise me in the least if Steve's 'plan' is how conspiracy theories germinate.

Note: A number of stock markets will be closed on Monday.
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot

Offline Texan77

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #46 on: May 23, 2020, 07:06:44 AM »
If there was to be a second wave, you’d see it in China by now, surely? All that’s happening there is little pockets of outbreak they are jumping on.

I agree the market hasn’t priced a potential 2nd as it doesn’t think there’ll be one. I think Cuffy is being overly pessimistic.

China was willing to do what was needed to get its cases to zero. Few western countries seem to be willing to do this.
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #47 on: May 23, 2020, 07:50:48 AM »
If there was to be a second wave, you’d see it in China by now, surely? All that’s happening there is little pockets of outbreak they are jumping on.

I agree the market hasn’t priced a potential 2nd as it doesn’t think there’ll be one. I think Cuffy is being overly pessimistic.

China was willing to do what was needed to get its cases to zero. Few western countries seem to be willing to do this.

As a coin has two sides so does the virus. Everything indicates there should be a second 'wave'. I suspect most of us are suffering in one way or the other from 'virus fatigue' and this reality will indeed hold back leaders from another shut/lock down.

My guess from what I have read China is having a so-called second wave presently. It seems fairly mild. Because of the political dynamics as well as resolve of the leaders they are able to contain the spread through containment. But China being China and just looking at the numbers they are also not reporting the actual numbers of dead and perhaps new infections.

Various markets seem to be resilient and to some degree are managing to survive, better than others. It seems few are looking at a second wave and what that will that do the worlds economies. Will it be as pessimistic as Cuffy indicates, no, well at least I hope no.
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot

Offline Texan77

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #48 on: May 23, 2020, 11:43:22 AM »
There are about a half dozen states in the USA being sued for the shut down. Business owners are claiming the states had no rights to shut them down. The claim is they were shut down to a make the public perceived a safety when in fact no safety issue existed. Restaurants are being forced to open at 1/4 capacity which many owners say they can not possibly make a profit like that. Many other business are not able to let more than a few people in the stores at one time. We already have 30,000,000 people officially laid off. So far the government is paying most workers but some small business are not doing so well. We have many millions of people in the USA who are doing something where they do not pay taxes. In the fake news often read over sea they call these people unemployed as if they gave up looking for work. We do not know how many of them lost their form of income. There have been a number of people who made a wind fall because of the virus. Others who been in the right place who made a wind fall because of the stimulus. These wind falls will be drying up and the 30 million people run out of unemployment benefits in August. Airlines need to keep all people employed until September to get government money. But after that they free to start laying off. Most older people afraid to travel because of possibility of dying from the virus will limit how much traffic will pick up soon. Other companies are being paid to keep people on the pay roll that will be free to start laying off soon. The government is talking about another stimulus bill. Some of our congress is looking at the rate we are borrowing money and have a resistance to this. Not sure what will pass. Another wave in the fall could easily be worse even if the number of people getting sick is less. The economy is not as strong now and many business have been weakened over the closures.  I understand much of Europe is feeling good like here because of stimulus money but that is not a recovery. Many third world and second world countries in dire straights. With congress not as willing to spend more money to keep the economy going we could have an economic train wreck. 
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.

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Re: Stocks and Shares
« Reply #49 on: May 26, 2020, 03:07:58 PM »
In the USA we have 124 million families. WE have nearly 40 million people un employed. We have a stock market that has nearly recovered if you look at the major indexes. Things are really not so bad here but it only because of stimulus money. It also looks like stimulus money is going into the stock market making it higher than it should be. Our trade problems with China appear to be getting worse which is not good for business. Low interest rate is causing people to want to borrow money on fix assets and invest it in the market where they think they can get a better return. It looks like a bull trap. The stimulus money runs out and then the market would have to deal with what is real. Not all those people are going back to work. The virus is a long way from gone, a vaccine at still ways off and on one knows how well it will work. There is a lot of risk here that does not seem to be priced into the market. I am not wanting to short it here but find myself looking for shorting opportunities more then going long.
3) There has been no "threat" to invade Ukraine. The US invented that and fed it to a complicit media.


 

 

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