Stocks and Shares

[Texan77]

It looks like you are calling for double top before we complete wave five up. The market often does this where there is a down dip and recovery before a top.

The people in the market are very confident like the people on this site. High Risk investments are in style with many speculators not seeing any down side risk. Some of the biggest gains are in Zombie companies where no one care about the lack of a balance sheet only how far down it is from the where it was in January. A lot of money going into tech stocks with out any earning and none planed any time soon. IPO market also hot. 

It is amazing people that are not in the market or should we say the general public is not very optimistic at all. Not usually a sign of a top. On the other hand the top was reached in February so maybe not so strange after all that this might be near a top.

I do not think earnings in second quarter will be a problem but where guidance will be for third and fourth quarters as well as next year will have a large impact in the market in July. Investor will start to look at balance sheets up date and see how many of these companies are reaching the zombie level. Then try to predict which ones the government are going to bail out and who will over time die. July is sure going to be interesting.

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Excerpts From Strategic Intelligence:

The Great Depression of 2020 Has Begun. Your Roadmap To Recovery:

Forget 2008.

For that matter, forget every recession, financial panic or crisis in your lifetime. Almost no one alive today has a living memory of the market crash of 1929, but even that does not capture the full magnitude of what happened to the U.S. economy in the past three months.

It is unprecedented in U.S. economic history.

We all know the reason. The U.S. economy was locked down to prevent the spread of COVID-19, which was unleashed on the world from Wuhan, China, late last year.

In this edition of Strategic Intelligence, we leave the origin of the virus and the pandemic to one side and focus on the consequences. The Great Depression of 2020 is as dramatic and disturbing as the pandemic itself.

In particular, gold has been a superstar, up 75% since the start of the new bull market in December 2015 and up 35% in the past year alone. We expect this rally in physical gold to continue and for performance in gold mining shares to do even better.

Cash is another star asset. It’s essential to preserve wealth and can even be your best-performing asset (in real terms) during periods of deflation, which we expect.

Following is an incisive view of the Great Depression of 2020. We will be with you every step of the way as we continue through this crisis with specific actionable recommendations for financial survival and even spectacular gains as the new depression unfolds.

Every Job Loss Is an Individual Trauma
The U.S. lost over 21 million jobs in March and April 2020. The May job losses (not shown on Chart 1) will add another 17 million to the unemployment rolls. (June now 45 Million UI applications running 1.5 Million per week and slowing dropping each week but above White House happy talk estimates) In total, the U.S. has lost over 45 million jobs in just three months. Total employment is back to levels last seen in the 1990s. It’s as if the economy had been on hold for three decades. It took only three months to wipe out the job gains of the last 30 years. Reports of continuing UI claims of 21 Million beggars belief.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute over 40% hof GDP and provide almost 50% of total employment. By gutting these jobs, we have gutted the U.S. economy in ways that may take a decade to repair.

Almost overnight, the Great Depression of 2020 slammed the LFPR (Labor Force Participation Rate) down to 60%, about where it was in 1970. Again, it was as if the U.S. economy had been transported in a time machine to where it was 50 years ago. A half-century of gains for women, minorities and the disadvantaged were wiped out in the blink of an eye.

Many of the businesses that closed for the lockdown will never reopen. It’s not a question of lockdown orders. They’re broke and out of business. The owners may start a new business someday, somewhere, but the old business is gone.

The assets are up for sale at fire-sale prices. The employees will never get their old jobs back. The lease is broken and the storefront is vacant. That’s reality for much of America.

Big business is not immune. We’ve already seen bankruptcies by household names like J.C. Penney, J. Crew, Neiman Marcus, Pier 1 Imports and Hertz. They will not be the only ones. You can expect at least one major bankruptcy coming from the airline sector. Even giants like Boeing are not immune.

Bankruptcy does not mean the company goes away. Some do (like Pier 1) because they are put into liquidation. But many companies are put into “reorganization”-style bankruptcies.

This generally means equity holders get wiped out, bondholders get a reduced claim (with some equity in lieu of principal), some stores or locations are shut, some assets are sold, leases are broken or renegotiated and workers are rehired in smaller numbers with reductions in pay and benefits. The company survives, but many landlords, stockholders and employees do not — their claims or jobs are wiped out.

The Great Depression of 2020 has just started. The big-name bankruptcies are popping up almost daily. There’s every reason to believe stocks will end up much lower before all is said and done.

Above all, there is uncertainty. Our expectation is that economic growth will grind lower before turning around. When it does turn around the recovery will be slow and uneven. We may not reach 2019 levels of output again until 2022 or later.

Stocks have not hit bottom. We may see the S&P 500 fall to 1,700 before the market turns around. That would be an almost 50% decline from the mid-February peak. Not as bad as the first Great Depression, but still one of the worst stock market drawdowns since the 1930s.

How to Protect Your Assets:
At a minimum, investors should reallocate their portfolios to include about 10% in gold or gold mining stocks and 30% in cash. A rise in the dollar price of gold is really a devaluation of the dollar, which is needed to promote growth in the U.S.

Cash can be your best-performing asset in real terms as deflation takes hold. Deflation means your cash is more valuable in real terms even as debt becomes more onerous in real terms.

For your remaining stock portfolio, the key is selectivity. Even in down markets, some stocks do well and outperform. During the first Great Depression, shares in Homestake Mining, which operated a huge gold mine in Lead, South Dakota, soared.

Jim at StratIntel is not a gloom and doomer just a realist...

Q2 and Q3 Earnings will be a horror show - all the zombies buying back stock with 0% Debt will wipe out their balance sheets and become technically bankrupt without further Treasury and Fed bailouts.

After the Fed pumps wave 5 back to a technically valid double top to finish the 5 Wave larger B wave we will enter larger Wave C down in a slightly slower in time 3 impulse zig zag C Wave similar to the Large A wave down - to a target 1700 to 2000 S&P range.  Unless the Fed & Treasury pulls a multi Trillion bunch of rabbits out of the mysterious hats.

 

[Texan77]

US - China relations continue downward as Trump is calling a trade deal off the table. Stock market is sinking over night so we will see if it still matters in the morning.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-futures-slide-after-report-on-china-trade-markets-wrap/ar-BB15QvhT?ocid=hplocalnews

[Texan77]

This was copied from  letter I received. It explains the recent rally and why it is likely to fail.

The U.S. government started dishing out $1,200 checks to everyone in April. It intended to help millions of folks keep up with their bills as COVID-19 and related lockdowns shuttered the economy. And it wanted to buy its way out of a prolonged recession from the get-go.

But as it turns out, many people cashed their $1,200 checks... turned on the computers in their basements... opened up trading accounts... and started speculating with stocks.

According to data-aggregation firm Envestnet Yodlee, securities trading ranked as the second- or third-most-common use for stimulus funds in almost every income bracket. The data showed that Americans who earn between $35,000 and $75,000 per year increased their stock trading by roughly 90% over the week before they received their checks.

And many of these folks were introduced to stocks for the first time... Investment firm Fidelity had a record 1.2 million new accounts in the first few months of 2020. Millennial-focused trading app Robinhood reported 3 million new accounts during the first quarter.

The influx of inexperienced investors – and more importantly, their money – is undoubtedly fueling the stock market's bounce-back from its March lows. The benchmark S&P 500 Index has pulled back a bit recently, but it remains within about 10% of an all-time high.

[Texan77]

This is a link of man explaining last week market action and what he expects for next week. He sells a trading service and I do not belong to it. This is not a sells video but rather a example of his work with out the trade recommendations. It shows what he expect next week and why.


https://joyofthetrade.com/blog/2020/06/27/you-need-to-pay-close-attention-to-this/?step=reg&utm_source=jot&utm_medium=editorial&utm_campaign=mma&utm_term=062820jot&utm_content=article

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News is Noise but it is still News:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-reasons-the-stock-market-may-face-a-severe-bout-of-turbulence-next-week-and-beyondonly-one-is-rising-coronavirus-cases-2020-06-27?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

7 reasons the stock market may face a severe bout of turbulence next week and beyond—only one is rising coronavirus cases

However, there are a number of factors that also have the potential to exacerbate volatility in financial markets next week and into July.

Of course, those factors include the lingering effects of the pandemic but also a spate of issues that could create additional angst for equity investors:

Rising infections and hospitalizations of COVID-19 cases

Economic surprises from the U.S. Labor Department’s monthly jobs report due Thursday

Quarter-end and month-end rebalancing of portfolios by pensions and mutual funds

Stalled plans for further economic stimulus from Congress

Joe Biden’s lead in presidential polls

Market technicals used by some investors as decision making tools

Low stock market volumes in a holiday-shortened week ahead of the July Fourth to be observed on Friday

Asked how he would rank the numerous problems Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, told MarketWatch that the epidemic is first and foremost.

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Yo Diggity S&P ESU20 Sept Futures Just Gapped Down to 2883.50 within the 9 Point Range of the Technical Number 2980...  End of Subwave 4

Subwave 5 Adjusted to hit the double top 3400 on 17 July on the RMS Midpoint Trendline ...  Note due to summer vacation season this could revise to the lower Waves 1-3 Baseline in the first or second week of August.  C wave will bottom at Fibonacci 38%, 50%, 61.8%, or full 100% retrace of Major Wave A though with the Fed/Treas likely to pump several Trillions of more Stimulus into Wall Street and Main Street End of July... 38% to 50% most expected by Institutions.

Click Twice On Thumbnail image in Chrome to view full-size chart

Reminder when we hit 3400+ we will top turn into Major Wave C Down so good time to go to Cash if you do not like to go short.

[Manny]

Many UK travel restrictions to EU holiday destinations lifted Friday afternoon. Expect EasyJet, Ryanair, TUI, IAG et al to fly on Monday.

It might be a wrong timing for Expedia as they have more of an international reach. But there isn't a huge upside to be had there anyway as they've already regained much of the March losses.

Airlines with British clients that serve Spain and Greece will go up Monday. For those not in already, there might be a fast day trade to be had.

[msmoby]

Whereapon both fell..

[cufflinks]

Whereapon both fell..

Hmmm ever the Contrarian never the Expert... Go figure...

[Manny]

Whereapon both fell..

Why must you constantly lie and make a fool of yourself with silly stuff that is demonstrably untrue? Every stock I mentioned went up today. 









And have much further to go IMO.

If you'd have dropped £5k on TUI this morning as I suggested, you'd have made £377 by close of trade. Still, you know best. 

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The latest Strategic Intelligence regarding Gold:

Russia, China and the Super-Rich Are Going for Gold. How About You?
You’re likely aware of the price action in gold lately. Gold has rallied from $1,591 per ounce on April 1 to $1,784 per ounce as of last Friday. That’s a 12% gain in less than three months. Today’s price of $1,784 per ounce is the highest since 2012 and a solid 70% gain from the low of $1,050 per ounce at the end of the last bear market in December 2015. The history of gold bull markets (1971–1980 and 1999–2011) shows that the most powerful gains come toward the end of the bull market, not at the beginning. That means even if you’ve missed out on the gold rally so far, you could still score huge gains as gold trends toward $10,000 per ounce over the next four years. What’s driving this bull market in gold? It’s not retail investors (apart from a small number who understand the dynamics) and it’s not institutional investors (institutional portfolio allocations to gold are typically about 1–2%). Instead, the steady buying is coming from central banks (especially Russia and China) and from the super-rich, who typically store their gold in private nonbank vaults in Switzerland and other good rule-of-law jurisdictions. As described in this article, the drive toward larger portfolio allocations to gold (in some cases up to 10%) is coming not just from the rich themselves but from their wealth managers and portfolio advisers. This is a sea change. For decades, wealth managers have rejected gold and pushed their clients into stocks, corporate credit and alternative investments including private equity. Recently all of those portfolio allocations have backfired. Equity markets crashed in March and are set for another fall soon after recovering over half the losses. Corporate credit downgrades are at an all-time high and that market is being propped up by the Fed in nonsustainable ways. Private equity looks increasingly illiquid as IPO markets dry up and most hedge fund investors have badly underperformed. This leaves gold as one of the best performing asset classes around. If central banks, the super-rich and their advisers are all jumping on the gold bandwagon, what are you waiting for? Gold’s worst ever bear market (2011–15) is behind us and gold is positioned for new highs of over $2,000 per ounce in the short run and much higher over the next two years. The time to go for the gold is now.

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Strategic Intelligence latest Gold Mining pick:

Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE: KL) is one of the premier gold stocks available in the market. It recently closed on the acquisition of Detour Gold. Years from now, if gold prices are much higher, this acquisition will likely be viewed as a phenomenal deal for KL shareholders.

Kirkland Lake is a growing gold producer operating in Canada and Australia that produced 974,615 ounces in 2019. Prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, Kirkland Lake was on track to produce 1.5 million ounces of gold in 2020.

Action to take: Buy Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE: KL) up to $45 per share.

[msmoby]

Whereapon both fell..

Why must you constantly lie and make a fool of yourself with silly stuff that is demonstrably untrue? Every stock I mentioned went up today. 

Still, you know best. 

Why aren't YOU being honest ? 

At the time I posted ..my info was correct

[Manny]

I posted screen shots of all the stocks I mentioned at end of day.

The context was day trading. On my hunch, I demonstrated over 7% in a day.

You jumped in in the morning so desperate to troll, on a subject you know zero about, to bag yourself some imaginary internet points. You failed. You got stretched out to dry as usual. Now you're trying to backpedal and retrospectively find data points to support your position. Like your blue beret, your position is imaginary and disproved.

You're making yourself look even more stupid than usual. Please find another topic to troll, preferably on another site. You won't be derailing this topic any more. Further uninformed burblings on this topic will be swept into your dross topic.

[cufflinks]

KL Additional info... Literally one of the best run most profitable Gold Miners in politically safe Oz and Can bucks that also gain a currency pop when output sold in USA, EU, UK markets... Whereas Juniors are a takeover bet and much higher risk

Kirkland Lake is among the most shareholder value-focused gold miners in the market. On May 6, Kirkland Lake reported first-quarter financial results. Like many other gold miners, it withdrew full-year guidance due to the uncertainty associated with COVID-19.

The company earned $0.79 per share, up 84% from the first quarter of 2019. Its balance sheet is in excellent health, with no debt and $531 million in cash. With ample free cash flow, Kirkland repurchased nearly 10 million KL shares and doubled its dividend to $0.125 per quarter.

One of the key takeaways from the quarter is that the Detour Lake asset that Kirkland Lake acquired on Jan. 31 had a great operating result in the two months it was under new ownership.

Detour Lake “had very, very good operating performance, producing 92,000 ounces in two months ending March 31,” said CEO Tony Makuch on the earnings call. “Cash costs of $696 and all-in sustaining costs of $1,108 per ounce were in line with expected levels for the quarter.

During the quarter, we saw the tremendous leverage Detour Lake has on the gold price. I already mentioned $78 million of free cash flow generated in two months, and that was about 40% of our total free cash flow for the quarter excluding nonrecurring items of the company.”

Kirkland Lake shares trade at just 12 times the consensus forward earnings estimate. That’s a slight discount to its peers, even though Kirkland Lake has superior assets located in very mining-friendly jurisdictions.

Moreover, it has a currency benefit from producing gold in mines that have operating costs denominated in Canadian dollars and Australian dollars. We think fair value for Kirkland is well into the $60s and that the stock could hit this price by early 2021.

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Harry Dent re current markets:

[Texan77]

I wished I could find the video again. But I just looked at a video that said 9 per cent of the house mortgages in the USA are not being paid. There is a government forbearance program where people who lose there job do not have to make mortgage payments. In three months the program runs out. Maybe they extend it but sooner or later these loans are going to have to get cleaned up. Maybe early 2021 we might see the real estate crash begin. By then loses in commercial real estate ie shopping malls should be in pretty bad shape also. Banks may need a bail out also. Also bank are making it harder to get loans. They are requiring larger down payments and higher credit scores. They are not pricing a recovery.

Yea Harry maybe on target. A lot of new traders in the market using stimulus money to gamble on stocks. The end of buy backs a huge force that has raised stock prices for the last few years. Biden will raise taxes on companies and the rich as soon as he get into office. That should do it stock market as soon as the investors get it and price it into the market. 

[Texan77]

A while back I noted Warren Buffet sold 4 billions dollars of airlines. So what did Warren do with his four billion dollars. He bought 7700 miles of natural gas pipelines and 900 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage.  Now remember he buys on fundamentals not a trader.  British airways have had the bonds down graded to Junk. Most airline have reduced their fleet of planes by 25 to 35 per cent and are laying off employees. Likely the bottom in airlines is not in yet but the bottom in Natural gas likely is.  The deal require 4 billion dollars of cash and assume 6 billion of debt.  The deal also included 25 per cent of a LGN gas terminal and 50 per cent of another gas company. I bet the income from the natural gas storage and pipelines far exceeds the income from the airlines.

Maybe you guys still think he is stupid I surely do not agree.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/berkshire-hathaway-to-buy-natural-gas-assets-from-dominion-energy-in-dollar10-billion-deal/ar-BB16mqyt?ocid=U218DHP

[AvHdB]

Most likely the only aircraft fleet seeing growth is NetJet and perhaps the competitors.

[Texan77]

Most likely the only aircraft fleet seeing growth is NetJet and perhaps the competitors.

The flight on a commercial airline is dangerous because of covid-19. I can see how the people who could afford the safety would want to fly this way. I know my self at 71 I am not interested in risking it and getting on a commercial flight with three hundred other people. Then doing that four times to fly to Ukraine and again four times to fly back. It is just too risky.

[Manny]

Working class Brits mostly holiday in nearby Europe. It’s cool and rains here. It doesn’t and is warm and sunny there. Only 2-4 hours flight time to most of it. The government has permitted safe routes you can visit without quarantining on return. More will follow.

Working class Brits will stuff those Easyjet and Ryanair planes to the gills through summer, virus or no virus. Both airlines will increase prices to recoup some losses.

Late summer I’m hoping to take healthy profit on those two.

[cufflinks]

Jim Rickards latest Strategic Intelligence alert:

Did You Disinvest From Chinese Stocks Yet? It May Be Too Late

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china/u-s-lawmaker-seeks-to-ban-chinese-firms-from-u-s-capital-markets-idUSKBN242704

We've been warning readers for over a year to get their money out of China and Chinese companies before it's too late. What's going on in U.S.-China relations is more than just a fight over tariffs or exchange rates. The conflict has degenerated into a new Cold War. The tariffs that Trump applied in January 2018 were more of a symptom than a cause of this conflict. The Chinese Communist Party are running concentration camps where they round up dissidents and members of the Uighur and Catholic minorities for "reeducation." Unlucky dissidents have their organs removed while they are still alive and without the use of anesthetics to supply a multibillion-dollar organ transplant industry. Once the victims die from the organ removal, their bodies are quickly cremated, as happened to victims of the Holocaust. China is now engaged in forced sterilization and forced abortions on Uighurs as a form of genocide to wipe out the next generation. China has also passed a new "national security" law that applies to Hong Kong in violation of the 1997 treaty between the U.K. and China regarding the handover of Hong Kong to the PRC. The treaty was supposed to guarantee basic freedoms and the rule of law until 2047. China just tore it up and began arresting protesters, who will be sent to Beijing for trial and probably never heard from again. China is also threatening war with India over a disputed border in the Himalayas and threatening war with Taiwan across the Strait of Taiwan. China continues to manipulate its currency, steal intellectual property and pursue digital surveillance over every move of its 1.3 billion people. In the face of this relentless totalitarianism and anti-capitalism, the U.S. is moving close to breaking ties and forcing China out of U.S. capital markets entirely. This article reports on pending legislation that would ban Chinese companies from operating in U.S. capital markets and cause the delisting of Chinese companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Investors who followed our earlier warnings have had time to get out of their Chinese investments ahead of this wave of revulsion at Chinese business practices and suppression of human rights. It may not be too late to get out of China if you still own any of their stocks, but the hour is definitely getting late. Things will only get worse from here.

Note approx 300+/- CCP Communist Red Chinese Companies were able to raise $3 Trillion USD on US Capital Markets EXEMPT from US GAAP Accounting standards... Not a bad ROI on their $1.5 Billion USD Bribe to Traitor Joe Bidens Coke-Whoring and snorting son Hunter in 2013... go figure.

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Whoa as I predicted earnings are a horror show:

Market participants have so far set a low bar for second-quarter earnings results across sectors, with the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken to contain it at their most widespread in the April through June period this year. The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is 43.8% for the second quarter, according to data from FactSet as of early July. Such a result would represent the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since the fourth quarter of 2008, and a steep downward revision from the estimate as of March 31, which had been for a decline of 13.6%.

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I watched a funnel video hyping Technology Profits Confidential new report on Apple-Fi Global Satellites network to provide high speed ubiquitous internet globally for $4.99 a month - they have filed a number of "secret patents" to protect their AppleFi R&D IP.  This would be a major disruptor to cable, cellular and phone line inet providers ... they claim this will obsolete 5G/6G. The report highlights the handful of suppliers to AppleFi that will soar - he mentioned most of these small applefi partners are in the $5 per share range and likely to see 1000's of percent gains once AppleFi begins to roll out - he teases a major July 28 Apple shareholders announcement...

Apple’s Greatest Breakthrough Yet: Retire Rich On The “Apple-Fi” Revolution…

Report is free if you buy a $99 Digital only vs hardcopy Subscription to Technology Profits Confidential

Anybody have a clue as to who these AppleFi suppliers are?