Out of state visitors not always welcome

[Manny]

Then the people went back to the factories only to find there are no orders, no one is placing any new orders and no one in their domestic market want to buy anything.

Texan, this is absolute and complete nonsense.

The Chinese have months of orders all stacking up. The problem they have at the moment is they can't get enough labour because everybody went back to the villages at CNY and stayed there to avoid the virus. China is open for business again.

I was trying to buy some motors recently and the OEM factory that makes them actually refused my order and said try again in six months. We are too busy.

The bird I have hunting down N95 masks for me has tried about nine different suppliers before she found one that has the capacity to fulfil my order. And she reports the prices are going up week after week because demand outstrips supply.

The ports are full to bursting. I have an order sat in Ningbo which they can't even schedule the boat for yet. It's that busy.

I am bringing small quantities of my stuff in by air that would normally come by boat to circumvent delay.

You are simply wrong.

[Texan77]

Yea trying buying a television sets, consumer goods or maybe clothing. You know the junk sold in Wal mart or shopping malls.  Medical supplies used in the covid-19 you can not find anything. If you can buy n-95 or better mask you sell out very fast. Very large world shortage of them. Maybe trying to buying n-99 mask maybe someone over looked them. The US is short 3 billion N-95 or better masks. also huge shortage in gloves. I do not know the number of gloves we are short but I think we are talking billions.

[Manny]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders’ remains wrong.

[B.B.]

A few days back there was musing from D. Trump of a complete lock down of NY, CT & NJ. Perhaps he was thinking let’s leep all those Democratic’s together.

Notes from 'Behind the Lines'.

I will be in the "lockdown zone" when they have it.  It won't be that big of a deal, we just wouldn't be allowed out (truckers and such coming in and leaving would be ok, so food and such would still be available.)

NYC is going to be a shit show.  Anyone who can leave has left for their summer homes.  Rhode Island's governor ordered NYers stopped at the border, info collected and then self-quarantine for 14 days.  Governor Cuomo of NY denounced this.  They're both Dems so it's Dem-on-Dem crime.  Rhode Island now has basically made it "national" so if you go to Little Rhody with out of state tags, you are going to have to self-quarantine.

Really, though, Rhode Island kind of sux anyway.  If you're rich and have a house in Newport, ok, but there's a reason we refer to Narraganset as "Nasty-ganset".

At my bunker stately home, everything is pretty chill.  I work from my house when I am on the east coast, so the only change is that I'm not flying to California 2x a month.

I am fully provisioned because I have a habit of picking up "consumables" if I am near a supermarket - if I go to the bank or the PO I stop by the local grocery market and pick up paper products, cat food, cat litter (sand) and such because it's bulky and irritating to do when I am buying groceries.  So I have all the TP, paper towels, etc. I need.

I stocked up on food and such in the days before the "stay at home" order because I knew all the "Oh, you don't need to stock up" bit was bullshit, just like "Oh, no, don't sell your stocks" was too.  I have picked up some bargains, and may add to those positions later.  There are a lot of good companies on sale.

As it is, hospitals, supermarkets, pharmacies and petrol stations are all open, as well as liquor stores and gun shops - turns out that even in Deep Blue CT those are "essential". The post office still delivers mail and I also check my PO Box once a week, when I go out to do my grocery shopping and re-supply.  I have a Remington 870 on order but I'm in no rush to go pick it up as I have several other firearms (mostly inherited), and plenty of ammo for each.  A buddy of mine from childhood is a "prepper" - although much like with "Trekkies" they get mad if you call them that - and he brings a few boxes of ammo when he drops by, supplementing my current stash.  So I have plenty if things go pear-shaped.  Not likely though.  I suppose I am a prepper now also, because, I let him pester me into buying a bunch of dehydrated food, so now I have a   -ton of that stored in my wine cellar.  I had plenty of ammo anyway on my own because the only two times you don't need more are if you are swimming or on fire.  Plus it's good to keep some around because anything worth shooting once is worth shooting twice, etc.

Here, restaurants are open for "delivery only" at the moment.  They used to be carry out also.  I have a pass from two separate companies - my own firm and a delivery firm which helpfully sent me a copy of theirs to show that they were going to be open and operating - so I can be out at any time, day or night, but I have been sticking to home. 

The liberals whine about Trump but the fact is that we would have been well and truly fcuked if Stumbles McMyturn or Joe "I put the 'Dem' in Dementia' Biden had been in the white house.   Trump shut down most travel from China on 1/31 - the Dems cried "RACIZM!!! XENOPHOBIA!!!" because they are afraid to be called names and would rather have thousands of their fellow citizens die of a Chinese virus than to have to worry if they were 'racist' or not, because: feelings or some faggoty shit like that.  They all need a good beating.  Pussies.

So Dr. Fauci said on ABC news (he was being interviewed) that if Trump had not done that, we'd be Italy writ large.  So thank God that it was President Trump and not Felonia von Pantsuit.

Anyway, everything is pretty chill here.  My neighbors are all home and exchanging recipes on the FB page I created some time ago for the neighborhood.  I am a high-E extrovert and was basically the first of the "new people" -  second and later owners of the homes in the original development - so I made sure everyone knows each other and also if someone gets the China Cough to reach out so healthy people can make grocery runs, etc., for them.

B/B

[msmoby]

My neighbors are all home and exchanging recipes on the FB page I created some time ago for the neighborhood.  I am a high-E extrovert and was basically the first of the "new people" -  second and later owners of the homes in the original development - so I made sure everyone knows each other and also if someone gets the China Cough to reach out so healthy people can make grocery runs, etc., for them.

B/B

What a neighbourly chap ..!

The 'political' section proves, once again that 'Trampu' must be dumping some sort of magical woofle dust in the atmosphere - given his tweets / speeches v implemented policy

[Texan77]

Auto visitors not always welcomed in Texas also.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/texas-to-enforce-quarantine-orders-to-louisiana-drivers-entering-state/ar-BB11SGkU?li=BBnb7Kz

[Manny]

Thanks for the view from within NYC, B.B. I thought you were quiet and glad you're well. I'm going to link your post on the news at the top of the page for a few days as I think people will find it very interesting.

[Texan77]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders’ remains wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

Top 4 dollar amount exports from China are electronics. Phones and ect.

Clothing sales are very dead.

Another article are expecting exports from China to drop 20 per cent in second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. 

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

[AvHdB]

Thanks for the view from within NYC, B.B. I thought you were quiet and glad you’re well. I’m going to link your post on the news at the top of the page for a few days as I think people will find it very interesting.

I suspect B.B. is in CT, one state from NY. I also am in CT, we have two policeman but only one uniform and the deer residents outnumber the human residents.

[Manny]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders' remains wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

Top 4 dollar amount exports from China are electronics. Phones and ect.

Clothing sales are very dead.

Another article are expecting exports from China to drop 20 per cent in second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. 

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

It depends what the profit margin is and how many you can make a day. Turnover is vanity; profit is sanity.

But....

Clothes factories have the equipment to make masks and phone factories don't. So the "dead" clothes factories will be making masks and the phone factories still making phones, ya think?

[Manny]

Thanks for the view from within NYC, B.B. I thought you were quiet and glad you’re well. I’m going to link your post on the news at the top of the page for a few days as I think people will find it very interesting.

I suspect B.B. is in CT, one state from NY. I also am in CT, we have two policeman but only one uniform and the deer residents outnumber the human residents.

I’m pretty sure B.B. is in NY, but I’m sure he’ll clarify.

[Texan77]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders’ remains wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

Top 4 dollar amount exports from China are electronics. Phones and ect.

Clothing sales are very dead.

Another article are expecting exports from China to drop 20 per cent in second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. 

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

It depends what the profit margin is and how many you can make a day. Turnover is vanity; profit is sanity.

But....

Clothes factories have the equipment to make masks and phone factories don’t. So the "dead" clothes factories will be making masks and the phone factories still making phones, ya think?

Manny I do not think so but it has really nice to get your in site. I am thinking some factories are booming now and the boom will be much bigger when the rest of the world starts buying late second quarter. What I am looking at here is 75 per cent of the people in the USA have not had a negative monetary impacts caused by the virus but they received a stimulus check. The government is giving every person in the US who lost a job 600 dollars per week plus the normal benefits. This is often more than many of them made working.  They are home spending less than normal. When this ends they are likely to spend like never before. None of my tenants are having a monetary problem caused by the virus. There is more free money floating around in the economy than I have ever seen.

[msmoby]

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

The masks and PPE kit are probably FAR more profitable !

[Manny]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders' remains wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

Top 4 dollar amount exports from China are electronics. Phones and ect.

Clothing sales are very dead.

Another article are expecting exports from China to drop 20 per cent in second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. 

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

It depends what the profit margin is and how many you can make a day. Turnover is vanity; profit is sanity.

But....

Clothes factories have the equipment to make masks and phone factories don't. So the "dead" clothes factories will be making masks and the phone factories still making phones, ya think?

Manny I do not think so but it has really nice to get your in site. I am thinking some factories are booming now and the boom will be much bigger when the rest of the world starts buying late second quarter. What I am looking at here is 75 per cent of the people in the USA have not had a negative monetary impacts caused by the virus but they received a stimulus check. The government is giving every person in the US who lost a job 600 dollars per week plus the normal benefits. This is often more than many of them made working.  They are home spending less than normal. When this ends they are likely to spend like never before. None of my tenants are having a monetary problem caused by the virus. There is more free money floating around in the economy than I have ever seen.

These stimulus packages are fast and generous both sides of the pond. This is fast quantitive easing in my view. It's faster than building infrastructure which is the usual method. It's to stave off recession and it'll probably work.

I sell online on multiple platforms. Today was very busy after a weekends orders. Everyone's sat at home having just been paid. Nothing to do except shop online. A pal of mine I spoke to also had a busy weekend. The very biggest private sites with tens or hundreds of packers have closed (not Amazon of course), smaller ones like us with fewer people can continue to work while being distanced. Sales are displacing in favour of smaller sellers.

But they're not buying so much consumer crap as usual. A lot of it is guys buying tools, parts to fix stuff, electrical stuff, and other guy stuff like barbecue equipment. I know other sellers are selling tons of art stuff, crafting stuff, toys and cooking stuff. Guys are fixing things and women are keeping kids entertained and cooking.

But most of it comes from China. They'll continue to boom.

[Omega1982]

From today's Wall Street Journal


BEIJING—An official gauge of China’s manufacturing activity rebounded strongly in March as work resumption picked up, though economists warned that business activity remains far from normal following a devastating coronavirus outbreak.

[Manny]

I spoke to a factory owner in Zhejiang this morning, and now all her staff are back, everybody is back to work, and everything is as normal she reports.

I even got a photo of a bit of my swag going out of the door. 

[B.B.]

Thanks for the view from within NYC, B.B. I thought you were quiet and glad you’re well. I’m going to link your post on the news at the top of the page for a few days as I think people will find it very interesting.

I suspect B.B. is in CT, one state from NY. I also am in CT, we have two policeman but only one uniform and the deer residents outnumber the human residents.

I’m pretty sure B.B. is in NY, but I’m sure he’ll clarify.

I live in CT - which Av, as a fellow resident would recognize as the postal abbreviation for Connecticut - but which may not have been apparent to residents of Europe - outside of NYC, so in the 'burbs.  Commuting distance (a few guys on my street commute - or did - to the city), but I work from home when I am on the east coast.

I referred to being "behind the lines" because Trump did talk about putting NYC, NJ and "parts of CT" on "lockdown, and it would have included where I live for sure.  The NYC bit would have gone up to Westchester and probably Orange & Rockland as well.  He backed off of that, though. 

Loads less traffic when I go out, and the grocery store is uncrowded when it should have lots of folks in it.

NYC is a ghost town.  Lots of cases of COVID19 adding up - supposedly they will hit peak in about a week.  It will go on longer and spread more because they are all on top of each other down there. 

I am untroubled by all of this as I understand that while "anxiety" exists it is just something that other people have.  My hope is that by the time July 4th barbecues roll around this will all just be a bad memory.

B/B

[Danchik]

Following up on B.B's "behind the lines", here's what's happening in Moscow.

The city has been on lockdown since Monday (Putin declared it a "week holiday for everyone") and it's suppose to end on the 5th, but as of yesterday, it has already been extended till the 15th (I personally think it will be extended further). I returned from Berlin on the 11th of March, so I have been in quarantine since then and I'm starting to go a little stir crazy (maybe that's why I started posting here again ).

I should say that when I returned the only question anyone asked me as I went through customs and passport control was "сколько у вас денег?"/how much money do you have?. No one took my temperature, I wasn't given notice to quarantine for 14 days, nothing. Sobyanin issued a decree for anyone coming from Germany, Iran, Spain, China, Italy and France to self-quarantine, which is what I have done. I do know that people returning from Italy and Spain were given notice and monitored. The Chinese were "ordered" to quarantine and many who didn't abide by the notice were deported or refused visas. My understanding is that they were closely monitored by different means, e.g. house checks, outside cameras, etc..

As far as expiring visas, passports and such, most government agencies remain open. I wasn't penalized for registering my visa past the 7 business day deadline as I was "in quarantine" (normally 3000ru) and the government have extended all expiring documents during this crisis as valid indefinitely, or until the situation stabilizes. No worries there.

At the moment I assume Moscow looks like any other city these days. Few people on the streets, most businesses closed, and the vast majority of people working from home. I'll venture out at some point today for some necessities, but the last time I went outside was similar to B/B's experience; uncrowded markets, no lines to purchase anything and sort of an "eerie" calm. Russians here are obeying the lockdown for the most part. Hospitals and such remain open and they have a team who will come to your residence and test you should you show or report any symptoms. Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Also like NYC, people here have gone either to their dachas or some place else outside of Moscow. I'm also inclined to buy a little more of the necessities than normal when out and about. Owning/buying a gun here is difficult for natives much less foreigners, but there was a huge run on aluminum "Louisville sluggers" if you will. This is the weapon of choice should things go tits up.

Restaurants are open for delivery and take away/out and markets will deliver products to your place as usual.

Yes, strange times indeed, but most are making the best of the situation given the circumstances. Good luck out there and stay safe.

 

[rosco]

Texan, factories are currently repurposing themselves to make gloves, masks and other things the west needs for the coronavirus.

Your point that there are ‘no orders’ remains wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/the-second-virus-shockwave-is-hitting-china-s-factories-already

Top 4 dollar amount exports from China are electronics. Phones and ect.

Clothing sales are very dead.

Another article are expecting exports from China to drop 20 per cent in second quarter and 10 per cent for the year. 

Maybe paper goods and n95 mast just do not ad up to as much money as 5g phones.

It depends what the profit margin is and how many you can make a day. Turnover is vanity; profit is sanity.

But....

Clothes factories have the equipment to make masks and phone factories don’t. So the "dead" clothes factories will be making masks and the phone factories still making phones, ya think?

Actually Tex, you’ll find that all the clothing brands will have placed their aw20 orders with the factories between December and March and we’ve pre sold and confirmed the orders with retail already.

The factories will be going like a fair to catch up and deliver from July. They’ve been paid and won’t miss a trick, I can assure you of that.

[Contrarian]

Following up on B.B's "behind the lines", here's what's happening in Moscow.

The city has been on lockdown since Monday (Putin declared it a "week holiday for everyone") and it's suppose to end on the 5th, but as of yesterday, it has already been extended till the 15th (I personally think it will be extended further). I returned from Berlin on the 11th of March, so I have been in quarantine since then and I'm starting to go a little stir crazy (maybe that's why I started posting here again ).

I should say that when I returned the only question anyone asked me as I went through customs and passport control was "сколько у вас денег?"/how much money do you have?. No one took my temperature, I wasn't given notice to quarantine for 14 days, nothing. Sobyanin issued a decree for anyone coming from Germany, Iran, Spain, China, Italy and France to self-quarantine, which is what I have done. I do know that people returning from Italy and Spain were given notice and monitored. The Chinese were "ordered" to quarantine and many who didn't abide by the notice were deported or refused visas. My understanding is that they were closely monitored by different means, e.g. house checks, outside cameras, etc..

As far as expiring visas, passports and such, most government agencies remain open. I wasn't penalized for registering my visa past the 7 business day deadline as I was "in quarantine" (normally 3000ru) and the government have extended all expiring documents during this crisis as valid indefinitely, or until the situation stabilizes. No worries there.

At the moment I assume Moscow looks like any other city these days. Few people on the streets, most businesses closed, and the vast majority of people working from home. I'll venture out at some point today for some necessities, but the last time I went outside was similar to B/B's experience; uncrowded markets, no lines to purchase anything and sort of an "eerie" calm. Russians here are obeying the lockdown for the most part. Hospitals and such remain open and they have a team who will come to your residence and test you should you show or report any symptoms. Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Also like NYC, people here have gone either to their dachas or some place else outside of Moscow. I'm also inclined to buy a little more of the necessities than normal when out and about. Owning/buying a gun here is difficult for natives much less foreigners, but there was a huge run on aluminum "Louisville sluggers" if you will. This is the weapon of choice should things go tits up.

Restaurants are open for delivery and take away/out and markets will deliver products to your place as usual.

Yes, strange times indeed, but most are making the best of the situation given the circumstances. Good luck out there and stay safe.

Thanks, great post. 

[Manny]

Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Is this a mixed pill? Can it be bought over-the-counter?

[2tallbill]

Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Is this a mixed pill? Can it be bought over-the-counter?

I'm not an expert so I am only going off what I think is true ,but I believe
it's two things and you take them together to have something that works
better than either one on their own.

Z pak is a an antibiotic usually prescribed for infections
https://www.drugs.com/mtm/zithromax-z-pak.html

Hydroxychloroquine is a malaria treatment
https://www.drugs.com/hydroxychloroquine.html


I doubt if it can be purchased over the counter in the USA,
but probably in Russia you could.

[Manny]

Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Is this a mixed pill? Can it be bought over-the-counter?

I'm not an expert so I am only going off what I think is true ,but I believe
it's two things and you take them together to have something that works
better than either one on their own.

Z pak is a an antibiotic usually prescribed for infections
https://www.drugs.com/mtm/zithromax-z-pak.html

Hydroxychloroquine is a malaria treatment
https://www.drugs.com/hydroxychloroquine.html


I doubt if it can be purchased over the counter in the USA,
but probably in Russia you could.

Well that was my question really. I don't see that an antibiotic is particularly useful against a virus. The anti-malaria treatment I can see; that has been widely reported.

Russia is much tighter on selling pharmaceuticals than it once was. Hence I'm interested if there is a mixed tablet available over the counter.

Or indeed what is available over the counter.

If so I'd be interested to import a few thousand. Or a few tens of thousands.

[d672]

 Here's an interesting interview Fox had with Dr Oz about Hydroxychloroquine and Z-pak. It sounds like the French doctor has had some amazing results with it. Sorry, I'm not sure how to post it without going through Facebook, Manny if you can change it so anyone without an account can watch it then go ahead.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?t=7&v=615490965963167

[Contrarian]

Another thing I've seen is that they are prescribing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine and the Zpak to patients with covid-19 and people have responded well to it so far; cost .16 a pill. I've heard that is goes for $8 in the US, but someone can correct me on that.

Is this a mixed pill? Can it be bought over-the-counter?

I'm not an expert so I am only going off what I think is true ,but I believe
it's two things and you take them together to have something that works
better than either one on their own.

Z pak is a an antibiotic usually prescribed for infections
https://www.drugs.com/mtm/zithromax-z-pak.html

Hydroxychloroquine is a malaria treatment
https://www.drugs.com/hydroxychloroquine.html


I doubt if it can be purchased over the counter in the USA,
but probably in Russia you could.

Well that was my question really. I don’t see that an antibiotic is particularly useful against a virus. The anti-malaria treatment I can see; that has been widely reported.

Russia is much tighter on selling pharmaceuticals than it once was. Hence I’m interested if there is a mixed tablet available over the counter.

Or indeed what is available over the counter.

If so I’d be interested to import a few thousand. Or a few tens of thousands.

I would not import any such thing made in China, the quality could be highly suspect and you could easily end up facing manslaughter charges.

Those are prescription medications, only to be prescribed by qualified Medical Doctors and only AFTER the person tests positive for CV.

Do you consider yourself to be a qualified laboratory, a qualified pharmacist and a board certified MD all wrapped up in one?

Hydroxychloroquin is only approved for Emergency use in the USA, currently on a trial basis and only to be subscribed by a qualified Doctor AFTER a patient tests positive.

I wouldn’t attempt to get anywhere near that process. Shrugs.