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Author Topic: Rouble bombs again  (Read 2660 times)

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Offline msmoby

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Rouble bombs again
« on: April 10, 2018, 11:03:13 AM »
I have been on a boat and missed out on the latest Oligarchs who benefited from close relations with the Kremlin getting shafted ...

Just tried a transfer and got 90 Roubles to the GBP


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Offline dcguyusa

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2019, 05:02:22 PM »
Quote
"The pace is certainly positive but the overall dynamics can't be satisfactory for us. We need to make economic growth more sustainable and dynamic,"

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-putin-calls-rise-incomes-152304003.html

With the possibility of global recession approaching, trying to boost the economy may be like trying to swim upstream.  :chuckle:
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Offline andrewfi

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2019, 11:43:47 AM »
Given the structure of Russia's economy, they are less likely to be sensitive to an external recession. That's a benefit of import substitution. Autarky stimulates the domestic economy and their exports, on the whole, are relatively immune to economic downturns.

Life for Russians will not be the same as during the previous large scale external recessions.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!


Offline Wiz

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2019, 01:03:26 PM »
GBP to RUB Stats    from XE exchange.

Stats  Data   Last 30 days         Last 90 days
High              81.2581                   82.8635
Low                   77.2535                  77.2535
Average         79.4977                  80.0569
Volatility             0.74%                     0.54%

Elvira Nabiullina (Boss of Bank Of Russia, is doing very well and don't forget the gold reserves that Russia has amassed the last 2 years.

I hope you realise what that means for the Rubble?

On the other hand the Petrodollar..... it's just a toilet paper.

 tiphat

Russia now is self sufficient in Food and is getting better as time passes.

I have been reading teh Yahoo news and they are FAKE news and nothing else.

Soon will see what happens to teh USA economy after the trade war with China....

 tiphat

Offline msmoby

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2019, 01:04:55 PM »
Hark at our Russia economist..

I await his predicted Rouble recovery 5 years on.

A little clue... if western Europe and China have slow downs they need less energy.



Russians are still feeling worse off than 2013, in real terms and VVP is demanding action to stimulate spending...


Russians await an interest rate cut ..

Q: what happens to currencies when the market relies this is going to happen....does said currency rise or fall?


Thank you...


There endeth andrewfi's 101 for the day.

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Offline sparky114

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2019, 01:20:53 PM »
S
Hark at our Russia economist..

I await his predicted Rouble recovery 5 years on.

A little clue... if western Europe and China have slow downs they need less energy.



Russians are still feeling worse off than 2013, in real terms and VVP is demanding action to stimulate spending...


Russians await an interest rate cut ..

Q: what happens to currencies when the market relies this is going to happen....does said currency rise or fall?


Thank you...


There endeth andrewfi's 101 for the day.



Maybe you need to get out more, and see how others mileage may vary  :coffeeread:
Today is only one day in a life of happiness

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Offline Manny

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2019, 01:22:16 PM »
If you're changing some other currency into Roubles, its happy days.

I sent some £ to Russia on the 11th August and got 78.48/£1 which I thought quite respectable.

Is there anything stopping one flipping money between balances on Transferwise and making a few bob as it moves?  :evilgrin0002:

I just thought I'd try it with a grand to see where the numbers lie:

Quote
You will pay:
986.69 GBP
Total fees
- 8.03 GBP
Amount we'll convert
978.66 GBP
Guaranteed rate (for 24 hours)
81.74410

XE quote 81.77 so Moby's 90/£1 might be a boat that sailed already.

He is right there was a short spike: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1W

At anything over 90/£1 the Rouble is a firm buy IMO. Is anyone here using notifications when currencies get over a certain level? If so, where from?
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Let's see how this post ages:

Trump will 100% be the President on Jan 20. History is about to be made and the World gets to see how real Americans deal with corruption.

Offline msmoby

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2019, 01:31:18 PM »

Maybe you need to get out more, and see how others mileage may vary  :coffeeread:

Hello Sparky!


Long time no spar...


Care to explain where I am at variance with the Ivanov index?


I expected someone to bite and suggest I was 'incorrect'...and allow me to ram home my point with Russian sources data...but not you))

If you are lucky enough to not rely on GBP v Rouble then few are the currencies ...Tira and recently the Georgian Lari, where the Rouble would have won you much...

Do you disagree that the Central Bank will drop the interest rates?


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Offline msmoby

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2019, 01:38:58 PM »
If you're changing some other currency into Roubles, its happy days.

I sent some £ to Russia on the 11th August and got 78.48/£1 which I thought quite respectable.

Is there anything stopping one flipping money between balances on Transferwise and making a few bob as it moves?  :evilgrin0002:

I just thought I'd try it with a grand to see where the numbers lie:

Quote
You will pay:
986.69 GBP
Total fees
- 8.03 GBP
Amount we'll convert
978.66 GBP
Guaranteed rate (for 24 hours)
81.74410

XE quote 81.77 so Moby's 90/£1 might be a boat that sailed already.

He is right there was a short spike: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1W

STILL using Tf wise?

WHY?
https://imgur.com/a/VrAduEW


I would be careful sending monies back and forth to speculate, rather than living expenses.





I have never claimed to be a Blue Beret

Spurious claims about 'seeing action' with the Blue Berets are debunked >here<

Here is my Russophobia/Kremlinphobia topic

Offline andrewfi

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2019, 01:43:18 PM »
People often have trouble understanding what an exchange rate is and how it affects an economy on both the macro and micro levels. The effects are different at both levels.

Most people, including thought leaders and programmers, either do not know or prefer to purvey inaccurate talking points.

There are whole books on just parts of the topic.

However, in general, for Russia, all exports, priced in dollars (and a decreasing volume of Russian trade is now carried out in dollars) are now generating windfall profits.

Where exports are both priced and paid in dollars, Russia benefits because those dollars now buy more roubles, increasing the profits of all exporters.

When imports are priced in dollars then those prices increase in roubles, but due to import substitution, that is less of an issue than even 5 years ago.

So, on a macro level, the costs and benefits tend to cancel each other out. On a micro level, individual businesses or people might benefit, or not. Just one aspect of how macro and microeconomic pictures vary.

Now that Russia and its largest trading partners are moving to national currencies for imports and exports even consumer goods imported are increasingly less affected.

A high exchange rate against any other currency is not usually a good thing - for that consider the USA where there are two very clear conflicting demands. One for high dollar values the other for lower rates. The US economy needs a lower dollar rate (price) in order to stimulate the domestic economy. That's where Russia is right now. A high rate enables a country to sell its debt - that's simply not an issue for Russia with its debt profile.

If the CBR wanted a higher XR they'd make it so. They do not. The rouble is in its target range. That rate range is chosen to optimise the performance of the whole economy.

Right now the US is facing the nightmare of competitive devaluation. A lower rouble, yuan, yen, euro, dong, won, rate against the dollar kicks Trump's MAGA plan to bring manufacturing back to the US right in the nuts. The high rate is the only thing that enables the US to continue selling debt. That other economies are deliberately forcing the dollar higher is a further problem for the USA.


...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline msmoby

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2019, 01:52:35 PM »
Dear andrewfi, such a lot of words...

Sadly, what you've just read somewhere cannot help you past predictions which have yet to come to pass and Mr Ivanov and his family are

1/ worse off than six years ago

2 / worried about having to work until the grave

3/ still concerned about corruption.



You see?

Far less words...but reflecting a reality you must somehow miss ..
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Offline andrewfi

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2019, 01:55:19 PM »
Stuart, Transferise can send out emails when the rate is at its best in comparison to the previous 14 days.

Currency markets move fast, in milliseconds, so any arbitrage opportunity will be priced in and lost before you got a chance to do anything.

Buying at an advantageous price, using the Transferwise system and notifications can be useful. I do it.

Sometimes there are opportunities for what they call carry trades but that's about interest rates rather than XR. Carry trades have a slower cycle and can last for months.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Manny

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2019, 01:56:36 PM »
If you're changing some other currency into Roubles, its happy days.

I sent some £ to Russia on the 11th August and got 78.48/£1 which I thought quite respectable.

Is there anything stopping one flipping money between balances on Transferwise and making a few bob as it moves?  :evilgrin0002:

I just thought I'd try it with a grand to see where the numbers lie:

Quote
You will pay:
986.69 GBP
Total fees
- 8.03 GBP
Amount we'll convert
978.66 GBP
Guaranteed rate (for 24 hours)
81.74410

XE quote 81.77 so Moby's 90/£1 might be a boat that sailed already.

He is right there was a short spike: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=RUB&view=1W

STILL using Tf wise?

WHY?
https://imgur.com/a/VrAduEW

@80.72 with a quid fee against 81.74 with an eight quid fee is much of a muchness surely? What platform are you on there, Paysend?

I would be careful sending monies back and forth to speculate, rather than living expenses.

As you know, on TW you can flip between currencies with funds held. So say you have £5k sitting there doing nothing. What's to stop you slipping it into Roubles at 90 and flipping it back at 80 or 75? I've not done the sums to incorporate the fees with a calculator, but a mental calculation looks like a few hundred quid to be had for nowt if you time it right. Why you need text alerts from somewhere. Not sure if TW offer that........

All you need is an SMS when it goes over 90/£1 and another when it goes below 80/£1 and five or ten grand walking about money can be earning a few bob for nowt. Blokes in stripey suits in London do this all day long and drive Ferraris......
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Let's see how this post ages:

Trump will 100% be the President on Jan 20. History is about to be made and the World gets to see how real Americans deal with corruption.

Online B.B.

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2019, 05:14:03 PM »
For those not paying attention, Trump broke China yesterday.  Trump notatbly gave positive commentary on Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's olive branch.

Evidently our Usual Suspects here are blinded by their masturbatory fantasies of a long-promised-never-materializing "Downfall" of the US, but it is how it is.  I'm sure they will all be out with Linus in the pumpkin patch in Autumn, awaiting the arrival of the 'Great Pumpkin.

China's own economy is quite vulnerable at the moment.  But we'll see.  China is China.

Meanwhile, the leftist media will continue to pray for recession, given how much they hate Trump for (rightfully) trashing them as spoiled, entitled, liberal elitists and de facto Democratic Party activists. 

B/B
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Offline andrewfi

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2019, 06:33:02 PM »
You do know, bb, that the Chinese have said no such call was made don't you?

As I and others have noted, the path on which the US finds itself is, just that, a path. While there will be a tipping point, we will not know that until after it happens. I do not think that point has been reached. However, it us very clear that the US is further along that path than it was a decade ago. I was talking about this stuff some 15 years ago. The elements are unchanged. The biggest change that I see outside of the United States is that the partners of the US are coming to the end of their willingness to support and manage the decline.

It never made any sense to force the issues because of the damage that an uncontrolled decline would cause globally. At some point though, the situation would require that other major economies would start to disconnect from the United States. That disconnection is now taking place. Ironically it is the US through its premier influencer, that is forcing that change. I am reasonably certain that China and Russia were looking for a timeline for economic disconnection a generation from today. Militarily, the longer the better, but my guess is that the United States can, at this time, no longer manage to enforce its will by force of arms. The window of opportunity to do so closed within the past couple of years.

The economic disconnection will have substantially taken place within the next five years. That's not to say that there will be no trade between the USA and the world's largest markets but that it will fall fast from this point onward. Of course it will be painful and it was not a matter of choice.

Economists have forecasted that the value of the dollar would rise significantly during the final stages of that process. That rise makes impossible the ability of the USA to rebuild its manufacturing industries.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline Manny

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2019, 12:43:08 AM »
Trump broke China yesterday

Gotta love the American simplistic view of the world. More so when the link goes to Faux News:coffeeread:
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Let's see how this post ages:

Trump will 100% be the President on Jan 20. History is about to be made and the World gets to see how real Americans deal with corruption.

Offline Wiz

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2019, 04:32:22 AM »
Trump broke China yesterday

Gotta love the American simplistic view of the world. More so when the link goes to Faux News:coffeeread:

But you must like her long legs....... or you concentrated to their fake conversation?

Maybe, if you have time, listen what this clever boy is saying........ I just wonder why he is not President of the USA?

Steve Bannon's Warning On China Trade War

Or better to remind you on what exactly America is basing their Super Power Status.



As I am not genius in economics.....like Moby can somebody explain to me:

What exactly mean these figures?

As of June 2019, federal debt held by the public was $16.17 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.86 trillion, for a total national debt of $22.03 trillion

and

Economy of the United States. Statistics
GDP   $21.3 trillion (2019 est.)

Thank you in advance!

 tiphat

Online B.B.

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2019, 04:53:44 AM »
So our two favorite Anti-Americans have given us denial, misdirection and ad hominems.  That's some pretty thin gruel.  First, the Liu He statement was delivered at a tech conference and reported in state media, so denial doesn't work, and second, the news wasn't just on Fox; it was all over, including Reuters, etc., so the "But...but...MUH FAUX NEWS!!!" bit likewise goes "Le *POOF!*" much like the German economy of late.

The Chinese have their own set of problems, at the moment, such as not becoming the next Japan, and view themselves as more vulnerable to a trade war than the US.

B/B
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Offline Wiz

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2019, 10:25:25 AM »
B.B.

Why don't you look your house first and then worry about the Chinese.......

You advertise that you have 21.00 Trillion GDP and a National Debt of 22 Trillion Dollars. Is this debt sustainable......or your dollar is a toilet paper?

As we already know your manufacturing industry has diminished and China or Mexico are manufacturing cheaply your products and then you import them to USA  and include them in your GDP. The fact is that you have 900 plus Various Bases in most world countries and these defence expenses support your whole economy.

But for how long?

Not many countries want to import your food products because your quality standards are below of any other country.

Haven't you noticed that the Chinese  have already compromised your Markets and in any town you go will find Chinese shops. WHY?

Because they have expanded under your radar.......and now they are covering almost every city in the west! Cheap manufacturing employing many cheap labour and later is coming the high tech products. Your Universities and schools are full of chinese students who soon will return to their country having acquired your technology.... Look what happen with the 5G Huawei technology in China. Your President's actions have not stopped the expansion.........

In the UK there are not many chinese shops around because all big British retailing companies import form China the products the sell. Why do you think "Manny" is visiting China? To see the beautiful girls or to find cheap products to buy and resell for a 50 or 100 % profit? Sorry I do not know..... his margins.
 
Why don't you look around your infrastructure.............it's very old and falling apart. Your Mafia president told us that.

BTW listening to that Fox Interview..... it's all crap and fake news.

Did you watch the Chinese leader sitting next to "Tramp" and not smiling....while Tramp was bragging?

How many Billion Dollars of USA DEbt the Chinese are holding? Is it over $50 Billion?

Imagine what will happen if they decide to follow the Russians who accept DOLLARS for their sales and then use them to buy Gold.

Finally if you are so strong, as you tell all the world why don't you attack and destroy the Chinese Fortified bases in the islands in the South Sea.......and East China sea who control all the Sea Traffic in the Area?


Offline Contrarian

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2019, 11:01:10 AM »
For those not paying attention, Trump broke China yesterday.  Trump notatbly gave positive commentary on Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's olive branch.

Evidently our Usual Suspects here are blinded by their masturbatory fantasies of a long-promised-never-materializing "Downfall" of the US, but it is how it is.  I'm sure they will all be out with Linus in the pumpkin patch in Autumn, awaiting the arrival of the 'Great Pumpkin.

China's own economy is quite vulnerable at the moment.  But we'll see.  China is China.

Meanwhile, the leftist media will continue to pray for recession, given how much they hate Trump for (rightfully) trashing them as spoiled, entitled, liberal elitists and de facto Democratic Party activists

B/B

Word!  tiphat
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Offline Manny

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2019, 01:00:38 PM »
In a surprisingly jew-free moment of lucidity, Wiz is right on the money 2 posts up.

Indeed, the Chinese own shed loads of dollars (and debt) and more interestingly shed loads of prime US real estate. Really, the Chinese have the US by the balls if they wanted to.

Wiz noted the Russians buy gold with their dollars; the Chinese buy Manhattan and big lumps of SoCal.

This tickled me.

In the UK there are not many chinese shops around because all big British retailing companies import from China the products the sell. Why do you think "Manny" is visiting China? To see the beautiful girls or to find cheap products to buy and resell for a 50 or 100 % profit? Sorry I do not know..... his margins.

Chinese girls are a bit like Marmite or Russian girls. Not suitable for everyone.

FYI, on a product, as you asked, 50% isnt nearly enough. A 100% margin would be the absolute minimum. So if something comes in at a tenner landed and VAT paid, it needs to be a shade over £30 at retail to allow for platform fees, delivery, CS/returns to clear a tenner before taxes. Margins need to be way bigger if selling into the US to absorb the stupidity, higher return rate and chargebacks from there. We dont sell anything that requires the customer reads more than a few simple lines into the US; if it involves cross-referencing product compatibility or any reading or thinking at all, we dont sell it there.

Not many countries want to import your food products because your quality standards are below of any other country.

Wiz is right on this too. GM, corn syrup, chlorinated chicken, hormones, antibiotics, etc. While much of it won't kill you any time soon, it will add calories to your diet and unwanted hormones and antibiotics into your blood causing other issues long term. I always put weight on when I visit the US. Most Brits do. And it isn't because we eat any more than usual.

But back to the Rouble: is there any reason that Transferwise can't be used as a currency trading platform?
Read a trip report from North Korea >>here<<

Let's see how this post ages:

Trump will 100% be the President on Jan 20. History is about to be made and the World gets to see how real Americans deal with corruption.

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2019, 02:51:08 AM »
As you are well informed about cars..... can you tell us who owns General motors?

Many of the Americans live in a cuckoo land and have not a clue of what is going on in the international money Markets. China makes deals in Yuan and guarantee to change Yuan to gold.....

They say that they are self sufficient in OIL and Gas......but from what I read......all the exploration companies.....created buy Junk money..... cannot survive or make money if they selling oil below $60 a barrel. Many of them went bust.

On the other hand Putin is laughing all the way to the Bank because exploration of OIL costs the Russians $5 (according to Andrew) and when the North Stream II is ready.......Germany will be happy and Russia much happier.......

My nephew works on the Pipe Line, in Siberia, which goes to North China and he thinks soon will finish...There is a nice 30 years contract for Russia.........

Never mind.... all they will have left will be..... plenty of ready made bases around the world.and their National Debt going up.......was $22 Trillion Dollars last time I read about it!

 tiphat

PS: As you insist to have a commercial site...I suggest you find a better provider. because every day there is another problem.........Today no photos on our avatars!

Offline msmoby

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2019, 03:00:14 AM »

My nephew works on the Pipe Line, in Siberia, which goes to North China and he thinks soon will finish...There is a nice 30 years contract for Russia.........



Then you ( or he ) should know that the Chinese are the one's 'laughing'  - they screwed the Russians to the floor on the deal
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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2019, 04:30:06 AM »

My nephew works on the Pipe Line, in Siberia, which goes to North China and he thinks soon will finish...There is a nice 30 years contract for Russia.........



Then you ( or he ) should know that the Chinese are the one's 'laughing'  - they screwed the Russians to the floor on the deal

As you happen to be the one, with the Know How, can you enlighten us about that Agreement?

Online B.B.

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Re: Rouble bombs again
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2019, 04:35:51 AM »
In a surprisingly jew-free moment of lucidity, Wiz is right on the money 2 posts up.

If you are agreeing with Wiz, you might want to pause and reflect.  :ROFL:


Indeed, the Chinese own shed loads of dollars (and debt) and more interestingly shed loads of prime US real estate. Really, the Chinese have the US by the balls if they wanted to. 

Lulz.  IF you owe the bank $1K, the bank owns you; if you owe the bank $1T, then you own the bank...now imagine if the bank has a military. 

You guys have this idea that China is some economic Hegemon.  They aren't (although they are trying to beocome one.)  You can't freely export capital from China now.  Why? Because they have to create millions of new jobs each year to keep their economy from tipping over. 

One smart thing they did was buy off our elites.  Wall St. de industrialized the Midwest and shifted production to China.  They made a lot of guys rich and then told them to handle shit back in the USA - basically how China has handled foreign powers, historically; bring the elites in, give them some juice, and tell them to deal with any problems that come up.

Ofc, the Midwesterns finally got pissed off, et, VOILA!  Trump is elected.

Wiz noted the Russians buy gold with their dollars; the Chinese buy Manhattan and big lumps of SoCal.

And ask yourself why that is?  America, for foreigners, is a GREAT place to offshore your cashola.  Stable government, stable currency, strong rule of law, *and* you can own shit anonymously.  If I ever wanted to hide money from people (other than the govt, in my case; I pay my taxes and walk around a free man) I'd get a New Mexico LLC.  Your name doesn't go anywhere on the docs.  So if I ever won lotto or whatever, I'd funnel it through "Heywood Jablowme, LLC" and nobody would be the wiser.

Oh, and we will happily sell foreigners our buldings...which will stay exactly where they are...and which we will continue to use while foreigners pay the property tax and maintenance on them. 

I remember back in the 1980s when the Japanese were the big "Yellow Peril" or whatever.  Not anymore.  And the Chrysler Building is still at 405 Lex, where Walter Chrysler built it.

B/B
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