Discussion on the "Mail Order Bride Business" Today and in the Past

[Justmd]

I can say for certain that getting a K-1 visa was the most time consuming, difficult task I /we have done.

[Konfushus]

Westcoast,

True the statistics do not paint a complete picture and more than a cursory analysis would be required to draw better conclusions.

However, a few things are clear. Of the men that use MOB sites, only a small percent succeed in finding a wife. There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. There was never a substantial number of Russian / American marriages to say that actual marriages drive the MOB industry. There is enough exchange between the US and Russia to account for a few hundred marriages per year outside of the MOB industry.

The difference between Marriage Brokers aka MOB sites and regular dating sites primarily is that MOB sites do not provide the same services for the same price to both men and women. This sets up a different dynamic. The USCIS draws a distinction and the death of the 'MOB' is what is being discussed here.

[WestCoast]

Westcoast,

True the statistics do not paint a complete picture and more than a cursory analysis would be required to draw better conclusions.

However, a few things are clear. Of the men that use MOB sites, only a small percent succeed in finding a wife. There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. There was never a substantial number of Russian / American marriages to say that actual marriages drive the MOB industry. There is enough exchange between the US and Russia to account for a few hundred marriages per year outside of the MOB industry.

At best these are your opinions. You have no evidence to back them up. The stats from the US government don't provide you with enough information.

 

The difference between Marriage Brokers aka MOB sites and regular dating sites primarily is that MOB sites do not provide the same services for the same price to both men and women. This sets up a different dynamic. The USCIS draws a distinction and the death of the 'MOB' is what is being discussed here.

You say the MOB business is dead or dying. Yet the international media says the MOB business is booming. Are you saying you have more insight into the MOB business than the international media? If you do please list your information and sources.

Andrew said the MOB business died several years ago, Manny agreed with him, but neither provided any information or sources then nor will they today. Seems strange, you, Manny and Andrew all say the same thing yet none of you will produce any information or sources to substantiate your comments.

How did you get your information? Did you work for a large firm such as Adate or AFA? Are you a hacker who hacked into Adate's computer system and discovered everything is fake? Are you a member of the US government who has clearance to view personal information on the visas issued by the government? Are you a member of a top secret US government organization that monitors and records all Internet traffic around the world? Are you telepathic? Please Konfushus tell me how and where you got your information? 

As for the difference between sites such as Match.com and AFA, yes there is a difference. Of course there was also a difference between the magazine ads from the '90s (remember those?) and the Internet versions. There's also free sites that offer limited services. Of course the hassles of USCIS only applies to Americans. Those that aren't American don't have to worry of such nonsense.   

[Konfushus]

At best these are your opinions. You have no evidence to back them up. The stats from the US government don't provide you with enough information.

As I wrote in some of the posts above, I know people who reviewed K visa applications and my information comes from conversations with them. This isn't 'top secret' information and it's not something I can link to...

However, what the statistics show is that even if all K visas were due to MOB marriages they unquestionably support the following statements.

Of the men that use MOB sites, only a small percent succeed in finding a wife. There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. There was never a substantial number of Russian / American marriages to say that actual marriages drive the MOB industry.

Yes this is an opinion

There is enough exchange between the US and Russia to account for a few hundred marriages per year outside of the MOB industry.

, an informed one.

What do you disagree with exactly?

Do you consider 1500 people in a year from one country a 'huge influx' of population?

How many men do you think use MOB sites in a year?

What percent do you think constitutes a large as opposed to a small percent?

Do you think that the entire MOB industry is driven by 1500-2500 clients per year?

How much do you think an average client spends?

What percent of K visas do you think are accounted for by MOB sites? (If you say all, then the statistics do show a decline in Russian visas).

You say the MOB business is dead or dying

No, I didn't.

[Konfushus]

Westcoast, the article you linked to claims that Anastasia Date alone has 4 million members.

Do you think Anastasia Date is dependant on revenue from the 1600 or so guys that married Russian and Ukrainian women last year or from the 4 million - 1600 that didn't?

(This would be assuming, incorrectly that all Russian / Ukrainian K visas can be attributed to people that met through Anastasia Date)

[WestCoast]

Westcoast, the article you linked to claims that Anastasia Date alone has 4 million members.

Do you think Anastasia Date is dependant on revenue from the 1600 or so guys that married Russian and Ukrainian women last year or from the 4 million - 1600 that didn't?

(This would be assuming, incorrectly that all Russian / Ukrainian K visas can be attributed to people that met through Anastasia Date)

I have no doubt that figures in the article are inflated. For instance, Facebook purports to have 1.23 billion active monthly users, yet figures show that there are only about 2.4 billion Internet users. More than half people in the world with Internet access are on FB? I doubt it. Unfortunately, as far as I can tell Adate is a private company, so financial records are difficult to come by.

[WestCoast]

At best these are your opinions. You have no evidence to back them up. The stats from the US government don't provide you with enough information.

As I wrote in some of the posts above, I know people who reviewed K visa applications and my information comes from conversations with them. This isn't 'top secret' information and it's not something I can link to...

This answer seems to be a pretty common on RUA, 'I know people who know the truth, but I can't say who or provide verified information'. Did I ever mention my work at Area 51. I helped reverse engineer alien technology. In about a decade my work will revolutionize space travel. We'll travel to the stars.  Don't buy it? Me neither.

 

However, what the statistics show is that even if all K visas were due to MOB marriages they unquestionably support the following statements.

Of the men that use MOB sites, only a small percent succeed in finding a wife. There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. There was never a substantial number of Russian / American marriages to say that actual marriages drive the MOB industry.

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

Yes this is an opinion

There is enough exchange between the US and Russia to account for a few hundred marriages per year outside of the MOB industry.

, an informed one.

Informed how? Of course you can't say.

What do you disagree with exactly?

Since you can't provide any verifiable information you're not saying anything. At best your arguments are conjectures.

Do you consider 1500 people in a year from one country a 'huge influx' of population?

No. So what?

How many men do you think use MOB sites in a year?

What percent do you think constitutes a large as opposed to a small percent?

Do you think that the entire MOB industry is driven by 1500-2500 clients per year?

How much do you think an average client spends?

What percent of K visas do you think are accounted for by MOB sites? (If you say all, then the statistics do show a decline in Russian visas).

Once again I must point out the MOB business is not about just the US.

You say the MOB business is dead or dying

No, I didn't.

You said:

Well, I'd say more accurately the peak of when any old dude could marry a model happened circa... NEVER... give or take a few years.

Not much different from saying it's dead. If you insist I'll give you this one. Everything else you've said is worthless without any verifiable information.

[Manny]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US is by far the biggest market. As you well know.

[WestCoast]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US is by far the biggest market. As you well know.

I keep hearing that and a majority of the members on RUA and another forum are Americans. How many marriages do the American regulars on RUA and another forum represent? Fifty or sixty? A hundred? Over the course of more than 2 decades, not really representative of much is it? Is there verifiable proof of this? Does this include Europe as a whole, not including the FSU?

[Konfushus]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

Absolutely. What percent of business do you think comes from the US? Some of the posters here have talked to owners of some of the large MOB sites directly. They should be able to say more precisely.

The visa stats show that even if all K visas were due to the MOB, US MOB marriages are insignificant in relation to the number of MOB site users.

Do you believe the European stats are going to show something drastically different?

The article you posted as a credible source states.

According to U.S. immigration statistics there were roughly 200 international marriage broker agencies in 1999 that coordinated between 4,000 and 6,000 marriages. By 2010, there were twice as many agencies - and 10,000 and 15,000 couples tying the knot.

It also states as I noted that Anastasia Date alone has 4 million users. If you don't believe that, why would believe any of the other information from the article?

A similar article http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/09/the-mail-order-bride-boom/ (originally from Fortune) states

According to market research firm Experian Marketing Services, the top 10 premium international dating sites drew 12.2 million visits in March.

The US statistics don't show an increase in K visas from 2010 until now. Even if MOB sites had only 5 million users in 2010 and we take the high estimate of 15,000 marriages generated by 400 agencies during that year, that's 0.3% of users finding success. Like I keep saying, insignificant.

No. So what?

Then you agree with me when I say - There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. Right?

Not much different from saying it's dead.

No, it's not even close to saying the MOB industry is dead. I actually stated that the industry was poised for growth in another post.

What I'm saying is that the industry is not about marriages. It never was. It's about the number of women willing to chat with men or at least have photos taken, not about the number of women willing to marry 'any old dude'.

Now you seem to have a contrary opinion to mine. Where is your evidence? The article you linked supports what I say, that only a small percent of MOB site get married through the MOB.

[Manny]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US is by far the biggest market. As you well know.

I keep hearing that and a majority of the members on RUA and another forum are Americans. How many marriages do the American regulars on RUA and another forum represent? Fifty or sixty? A hundred? Over the course of more than 2 decades, not really representative of much is it? Is there verifiable proof of this? Does this include Europe as a whole, not including the FSU?

The German speaking market is notable, as is France, and to a lesser extent Scandinavia, Holland and the UK. I see our historical traffic stats and book sales broken down by geography (and its not so much about non-English language either - many Europeans speak English). The biggest market by far is the US.

[WestCoast]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US is by far the biggest market. As you well know.

I keep hearing that and a majority of the members on RUA and another forum are Americans. How many marriages do the American regulars on RUA and another forum represent? Fifty or sixty? A hundred? Over the course of more than 2 decades, not really representative of much is it? Is there verifiable proof of this? Does this include Europe as a whole, not including the FSU?

The German speaking market is notable, as is France, and to a lesser extent Scandinavia, Holland and the UK. I see our historical traffic stats and book sales broken down by geography (and its not so much about non-English language either - many Europeans speak English). The biggest market by far is the US.

Since the US is the 3rd largest country by population that wouldn't be surprising. My point is, is the US larger than all of Europe, minus the FSU? How relevant are RUA's traffic stats? Look up RUA on Alexa and it ranks around 937,050 (lower is better), so RUA traffic is not really that relevant.

[Anteros]

To quote Manny "The men who enter this who end up married number less than 1%."

Then count me into the 1%...My wife today (after we spent the morning doing yard work together)

Pretty lady, congratulations Justmd!   

[Anteros]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US is by far the biggest market. As you well know.

I keep hearing that and a majority of the members on RUA and another forum are Americans. How many marriages do the American regulars on RUA and another forum represent? Fifty or sixty? A hundred? Over the course of more than 2 decades, not really representative of much is it? Is there verifiable proof of this? Does this include Europe as a whole, not including the FSU?

The MOB business is mostly about guys writing to gals (keyboard Romeos) but never actually going over there to meet the gal; so the amount of marriages is not going to be very large, it's the amount of revenue that Anastasia Date (circa 120 Million USD IIRC) and other big agencies can generate from letter writing, chat and phone calls that matters most to them (the agencies).  Indeed if they were successful at quickly matching every new lady to a new man, they would probably go out of business.

[WestCoast]

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

Absolutely. What percent of business do you think comes from the US? Some of the posters here have talked to owners of some of the large MOB sites directly. They should be able to say more precisely.

The visa stats show that even if all K visas were due to the MOB, US MOB marriages are insignificant in relation to the number of MOB site users.

Do you believe the European stats are going to show something drastically different?

The article you posted as a credible source states.

According to U.S. immigration statistics there were roughly 200 international marriage broker agencies in 1999 that coordinated between 4,000 and 6,000 marriages. By 2010, there were twice as many agencies - and 10,000 and 15,000 couples tying the knot.

It also states as I noted that Anastasia Date alone has 4 million users. If you don't believe that, why would believe any of the other information from the article?

Are there MOB sites that are shams? Of course I can name numerous industries that have lots of ripoffs. Industries such as movie DVDs, designer goods, music etc. Doesn't mean the industry as a whole is fake. Buyer beware is more important today than ever.

Will European visa stats show something different from US stats? Don't know. My French is minimal and my German nonexistent, plus I have no idea where to look for such information.

Konfushus, I rarely believe much of what I read or see and only if verifiable. The article had information that was dubious, such as the number of users. Other information was more believable such as revenue and marriages. You on the other hand present no verifiable information, only information from informed sources that you can't/won't share.

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

A similar article http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/09/the-mail-order-bride-boom/ (originally from Fortune) states

According to market research firm Experian Marketing Services, the top 10 premium international dating sites drew 12.2 million visits in March.

International means more than just the US. Also how long does it take to go from visitor to site through courtship and marriage? A couple of years? More?

You do realize the MOB business is about more than just the US?

The US statistics don't show an increase in K visas from 2010 until now. Even if MOB sites had only 5 million users in 2010 and we take the high estimate of 15,000 marriages generated by 400 agencies during that year, that's 0.3% of users finding success. Like I keep saying, insignificant.

No. So what?

Then you agree with me when I say - There was never a huge influx of Russian brides to the US. Right?

If you take a look at the latest annual immigration figures you'll see that 15,000/year wouldn't be a significant influx to the US. The US is a very populous country a few thousand or a few tens of thousand, neither will make much of an impact.

As for fluctuations in visa numbers, they happen, without more information there's no way to know. You keep repeating the same over and over, with no new information.

[Rasputin]

International means more than just the US. Also how long does it take to go from visitor to site through courtship and marriage? A couple of years? More?

That is true. The leading country where Russian women find foreign husbands according to the stats that used to be released by the ZAKS no 4 in Moscow (where foreigners had to get married) was Turkey and usually followed by Germany if memory serves me right...

[Manny]

Westy, everything you seek isn't on Google. You are not known as the armchair Google guru for nothing. 

Alexa is a much disputed source as you can surely Google. I dont know anyone who has the Alexa toolbar. 

As a niche site, one doesn't expect to have traffic comparable with Amazon. Your attempted point is silly.

RUA traffic is quite relevant as it shows us percentages. It matters not if we get 200 or 20000 hits a day, the percentage of that traffic that will be American will be pretty constant, and is broadly similar to other data I have seen and know of.

I'll leave you and Google to ponder on that.

[Anteros]

Westy, everything you seek isn't on Google. You are not known as the armchair Google guru for nothing. 

Alexa is a much disputed source as you can surely Google. I dont know anyone who has the Alexa toolbar. 

As a niche site, one doesn't expect to have traffic comparable with Amazon. Your attempted point is silly.

RUA traffic is quite relevant as it shows us percentages. It matters not if we get 200 or 20000 hits a day, the percentage of that traffic that will be American will be pretty constant, and is broadly similar to other data I have seen and know of.

I'll leave you and Google to ponder on that.

You and Konfushus have responded to WestCoast, now how about responding to my two larger posts?

[Manny]

The MOB business is mostly about guys writing to gals (keyboard Romeos) but never actually going over there to meet the gal; so the amount of marriages is not going to be very large, it's the amount of revenue that Anastasia Date (circa 120 Million USD IIRC) and other big agencies can generate from letter writing, chat and phone calls that matters most to them (the agencies).  Indeed if they were successful at quickly matching every new lady to a new man, they would probably go out of business.

That all is about right.

The site in Russia you mentioned used to be alright, not sure about now since it changed ownership at IMBRA time. But when the biggest part of the market is shy to go to Russia and only wants to flock to Ukraine, that explains why it stayed small. Also, fewer women seek to leave Russia now, and Togliatti isn't an especially poor place.

[Anteros]

The MOB business is mostly about guys writing to gals (keyboard Romeos) but never actually going over there to meet the gal; so the amount of marriages is not going to be very large, it's the amount of revenue that Anastasia Date (circa 120 Million USD IIRC) and other big agencies can generate from letter writing, chat and phone calls that matters most to them (the agencies).  Indeed if they were successful at quickly matching every new lady to a new man, they would probably go out of business.

That all is about right.

The site in Russia you mentioned used to be alright, not sure about now since it changed ownership at IMBRA time. But when the biggest part of the market is shy to go to Russia and only wants to flock to Ukraine, that explains why it stayed small. Also, fewer women seek to leave Russia now, and Togliatti isn't an especially poor place.

I logged onto Elena's Models after you wrote this.  I would say that 8 out of 10 profiles were women from Russia, so this doesn't seem to be true unless someone is using A. Date.

[Konfushus]

Anteros, what your wrote in this thread sounds about right to me.

Regarding Elena's Models, what were your search parameters and the number of results? I checked it out quickly and looked like slightly more Ukrainian profiles than Russian.

[Anteros]

Anteros, what your wrote in this thread sounds about right to me.

Regarding Elena's Models, what were your search parameters and the number of results? I checked it out quickly and looked like slightly more Ukrainian profiles than Russian.

I searched profiles from age 27 to age 45, IIRC.  I did not keep going thru pages, but the first two pages were almost all women living in Russia.

[Agape]

Brrr... even reading the words "mail order bride" sent shivers down my spine...

I vividly imagine this parcel:

[Konfushus]

A few quick searches...

Ladies 18-50 Russia 3400
Ladies 18-50 Ukraine 2900

Ladies 18-30 Russia 1100
Ladies 18-30 Ukraine 1400

Ladies 18-25 Russia 400
Ladies 18-25 Ukraine 800

Ladies 27-45 Russia 2500
Ladies 27-45 Ukraine 1800

Interesting, though not wholly unexpected results.