Newbie need data!

[Morris]

The more you'll learn to know me, the more you'll understand that I'm very analytic.  Please, don't get me wrong with my questions or interventions! (To reflect it, I changed my avatar!) 

I don't want to be seen as a douche b !!!

(Excerpt from my introduction) http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php?topic=19650.0

I'm not in a rush.  I'm more a very systematic guy.  Also, I'm not desperate, I never had any problems to find a women, and very cool and cutes ones.

Right now, I'm more on a studying mode. 

So, it will be a real pleasure to read you, to learn from you!

I know that the whole "operation" have some risks, but I don't have any doubt there's many success stories.

As a newbie tough, it'll be quite useful to have some "statistics" giving a reliable portrait of the rate of success, in order to be well aware of what we're getting into.

I've made many search throughout the web and didn't find any satisfactory statistics.

Tough, I've fond some infos like this one:

"As stated previously, there is very little data available on the number of Russian mail-order bride marriages that occur annually or how many of them last. The INS estimates that 2,000 to 5,000 mail order marriages occur annually.46 According to my calculations, that is an average of 3500 marriages a year. For 1997, 21% of all immigrants were spouses of US citizens. A substantial majority of these immigrants were women. Since there is little official data available, the INS, using the figure of 2000-5000 marriages a year, calculates that 1.5% to 2.7% of the 132,000 female spouses entering the US are mail-order brides.

The biggest trend in the mail-order bride market has been the explosion of agencies that provide introductions to women in the former Soviet Union. According to the INS report, 51% of mail order agencies in 1998 were for women in the former Soviet Union. The INS performed a small survey on mail-order brides and found that of that group, 46% were from the former USSR. Therefore Soviet mail-order brides are appear to be dominating this industry."

http://www1.american.edu/TED/bride.htm

EDIT: I've found this one very interesting: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090909221616AAw8Z0h

So, I don't know if anyone have more complete and reliable statistics (other than agency's, of course!)

If so, it will be cool to have references to it.

If not, maybe the most experienced ones can, in an empiric way, provide some cues?

In either way, given there's enough stuff to refer to, maybe it would be useful to have a sticky about those kind of facts?

[missAmeno]

As a newbie tough, it'll be quite useful to have some "statistics" giving a reliable portrait of the rate of success, in order to be well aware of what we're getting into.

Define success. 

[andrewfi]

It does not matter how many other people are successful (in whatever terms you choose to define success) All you need is one wife (if that is what you are seeking) and all you need to know is something of best practice to attain that goal.

All that you get by knowing about how may other folks 'succeed' is a way to externalise failure when you fail (you won't even think about that if you get what you want)

Most men don't end up with a wife as a result of their hunt for a foreign spouse. Most women do not get a husband as a result of theirs.

If you are a betting man then don't bet on your chances of success.

[Morris]

Define success. 

Very pertinent comment. 

Maybe this definition can be enhanced by other members, but what I refer to as success can be roughly something like:

- In comparison of national divorces rates, what is the divorce rate with FSUW, adding the time factor: for exemple, after 2 years, 5 years, 10 years;

- What is the average number of trips needed before finding a match resulting in wedding;

- What is the ratio contacts/real encounters;

- What is the average time spend before finding a serious match;

- What was the average "investment" needed until starting a marital relationship ;

- What is the average age difference;

- And other "guidelines"...

I know, each story is unique, there's always exception, but I think that's a good things for someone new at this to have some "quantitative" facts, to have the most possible objective portrait, in order to keep realistic... 

[missAmeno]

Well with your analytical mind perhaps you should create questionnaire for members to fill in. Once you get some 100 responses you could analyze it for us 

[Larry]

- What is the average number of trips needed before finding a match resulting in wedding;
4.3 trips

- What is the ratio contacts/real encounters;
68.34 contacts to 1 real encounter

- What is the average time spend before finding a serious match;
8 months and 6 days

- What was the average "investment" needed until starting a marital relationship ;
$23,426.77

- What is the average age difference;
9 years and 4 months

                                                    *****

I pulled all of these figures out of the air.  I don't think anyone compiles this kind of information.  As MissAmeno noted above, if you want this information you will probably have to make an effort to gather it.

[Morris]

Well with your analytical mind perhaps you should create questionnaire for members to fill in. Once you get some 100 responses you could analyze it for us 

Very good idea!  No jokes, I find this subjet so facinating that I'm thinking about a social-psychology PhD research about it!

Counsidering the growing number of people around the globe (boosted by the increasing of internet access), the massive economics impacts (it must be an industry of several billions $), domestics immigration impacts (such as integration issues), I think it's a very actual and pertinent field of research.

I was thinking about the correct angle to approach this subject...  One idea was to make some longitudinal case study, interviewing both mens and woman and to concentrate on North American and FSU cases...

Which will bring me to travel a lot...

A way to "joindre l'utile à l'agréable"...

[NS1]

- What is the average number of trips needed before finding a match resulting in wedding;
4.3 trips

- What is the ratio contacts/real encounters;
68.34 contacts to 1 real encounter

- What is the average time spend before finding a serious match;
8 months and 6 days

- What was the average "investment" needed until starting a marital relationship ;
$23,426.77

- What is the average age difference;
9 years and 4 months

                                                    *****

I pulled all of these figures out of the air.  I don't think anyone compiles this kind of information.  As MissAmeno noted above, if you want this information you will probably have to make an effort to gather it.

seems about right 

[Brasscasing]

The problem with collecting data about this particular area of international marriage is it's a niche within a niche all by itself. Off the top of my head I'd guess that Asian and South American brides entering Canada and the US outnumber FSU brides by 10 to 1(?)

Further, I'm pretty sure that neither the Canadian or American immigration systems break sponsored/immigrant marriage down to individual countries for statistical purposes. The data is probably obtainable but I'd venture not readily accessible.

Besides, US and Canadian immigration law, process and systems are totally different so I doubt you'd be able to base any findings as North America wide - it'd be like merging CFL stats with NFL stats. Can't be done, they're two different games.

BTW, no amount of stats is going to help you with your own journey. It ain't a horse race. 

Brass
 

[TomT]

- In comparison of national divorces rates, what is the divorce rate with FSUW, adding the time factor: for exemple, after 2 years, 5 years, 10 years;

- What is the average number of trips needed before finding a match resulting in wedding;

- What is the ratio contacts/real encounters;

- What is the average time spend before finding a serious match;

- What was the average "investment" needed until starting a marital relationship ;

- What is the average age difference;

- And other "guidelines"...

I know, each story is unique, there's always exception, but I think that's a good things for someone new at this to have some "quantitative" facts, to have the most possible objective portrait, in order to keep realistic...

This endeavor is rife with men who will marry the first woman who doesn't get a restraining order against them, the pathologically unrealistic and those who consider spending to be synonymous with commitment. Unless you discard all of the junk data, there is no way to generate meaningful averages.

[Morris]

The problem with collecting data about this particular area of international marriage is it's a niche within a niche all by itself. Off the top of my head I'd guess that Asian and South American brides entering Canada and the US outnumber FSU brides by 10 to 1(?)

Further, I'm pretty sure that neither the Canadian or American immigration systems break sponsored/immigrant marriage down to individual countries for statistical purposes. The data is probably obtainable but I'd venture not readily accessible.

Besides, US and Canadian immigration law, process and systems are totally different so I doubt you'd be able to base any findings as North America wide - it'd be like merging CFL stats with NFL stats. Can't be done, they're two different games.

BTW, no amount of stats is going to help you with your own journey. It ain't a horse race. 

Brass

Very enlightening comment, thanks! 

I know "it ain't a horse race".  Maybe my level of English makes so that I lack nuances when trying to express something, but what I meant was to have something to help newbies to know if "le jeu en vaut la chandelle" (sorry, I don't know if this expression exist in English). 

I was thinking about the "Risk-benefit analysis" concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk-benefit_analysis

[andrewfi]

Nope, you are setting up a fall-back failure position.

If you want it go and do it. The fact that people succeed tells you it can be done, that is ALL you need to know in this regard.

Just understand that if you were a betting man you'd not bet on your success. Understand this and you can put failure into context, if failure happens. The number of failures is irrelevant if you know that success is possible. You simply make the choice to succeed.

[Morris]

Nope, you are setting up a fall-back failure position.

If you want it go and do it. The fact that people succeed tells you it can be done, that is ALL you need to know in this regard.

Just understand that if you were a betting man you'd not bet on your success. Understand this and you can put failure into context, if failure happens. The number of failures is irrelevant if you know that success is possible. You simply make the choice to succeed.

So, you're telling me is: "They didn't know it was impossible, so they did it."?  - Mark Twain 

[missAmeno]

I was thinking about the "Risk-benefit analysis" concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk-benefit_analysis

In such case lets start from benefits. 
What kind of benefits can you get from being with FSUW?

[andrewfi]

No, you did not read.

I wrote that people succeed. If others succeed then you can. The thing is possible.

You do not need to know how many failed or how they failed.

A lifetime of experience tells me that when I hear people saying stuff like you (or in this case reading) that they are giving themselves permission to fail. If that is what you want then you will fail, nobody can help you.

Only if you choose to emulate the few who succeed and disregard the failures will you have any chance of success.

Of course, you may still fail!

[2tallbill]

Define success. 

Very pertinent comment. 

Maybe this definition can be enhanced by other members, but what I refer to as success can be roughly something like:
 

You didn't answer MissA's question

Gathering data is fine. Analyzing information is fine.

What I recommend to Newbies is that they read, read and read
some more. Learn everything that they possibly can in order to
increase your chances.

If you study the statistics you will find almost everybody fails.
They give up, they wimp out, they talk to a few girls, they waste
a few dollars, they waste several girls time, then they quit.

This pursuit is a numbers game. There is an excellent girl in this
world that would be your soul mate. Unfortunately you don't know
each other, nor do you know where she lives.

You will have to go through hundreds and hundreds (in my case
thousands and thousands) of girls that aren't your soul mate in
order to find your soul mate.

Do everything you can to increase your chances.
If you are willing to be doggedly persistent.
If you are willing to sift through that vast number of girls without
giving up then you can be one of those success stories.

You can be the guy that has a beautiful, intelligent, educated, loving,
woman that 99% of the guys give up looking before they find.

This pursuit takes time, treasure and maximum effort. You have to be
able to shake off disappointments. You have be able to dust yourself
off and start over from scratch. Most guys can't do this.   

Udachi !


Bill

[Morris]

Define success. 

Very pertinent comment. 

Maybe this definition can be enhanced by other members, but what I refer to as success can be roughly something like:
 

You didn't answer MissA's question

Gathering data is fine. Analyzing information is fine.

What I recommend to Newbies is that they read, read and read
some more. Learn everything that they possibly can in order to
increase your chances.

If you study the statistics you will find almost everybody fails.
They give up, they wimp out, they talk to a few girls, they waste
a few dollars, they waste several girls time, then they quit.

This pursuit is a numbers game. There is an excellent girl in this
world that would be your soul mate. Unfortunately you don't know
each other, nor do you know where she lives.

You will have to go through hundreds and hundreds (in my case
thousands and thousands) of girls that aren't your soul mate in
order to find your soul mate.

Do everything you can to increase your chances.
If you are willing to be doggedly persistent.
If you are willing to sift through that vast number of girls without
giving up then you can be one of those success stories.

You can be the guy that has a beautiful, intelligent, educated, loving,
woman that 99% of the guys give up looking before they find.

This pursuit takes time, treasure and maximum effort. You have to be
able to shake off disappointments. You have be able to dust yourself
off and start over from scratch. Most guys can't do this.   

Udachi !


Bill

Thanks Bill, I might be "slow" but with your comment, I got it...  It's clearer now.  Roger that! 

[Larry]

This pursuit is a numbers game. There is an excellent girl in this
world that would be your soul mate. Unfortunately you don't know
each other, nor do you know where she lives.

You will have to go through hundreds and hundreds (in my case
thousands and thousands) of girls that aren't your soul mate in
order to find your soul mate.

Do everything you can to increase your chances.
If you are willing to be doggedly persistent.
If you are willing to sift through that vast number of girls without
giving up then you can be one of those success stories.

You can be the guy that has a beautiful, intelligent, educated, loving,
woman that 99% of the guys give up looking before they find.

This pursuit takes time, treasure and maximum effort. You have to be
able to shake off disappointments. You have be able to dust yourself
off and start over from scratch. 

This is a good rundown of how difficult this search can be, from a guy who never gave up.  Few guys realize how difficult this search can be when they begin.

[2tallbill]

Thanks Bill, I might be "slow" but with your comment, I got it...  It's clearer now.  Roger that! 

Answering MissA's question if not here publicly then at least answer it to
yourself in my opinion is a good first step.

What do you consider success? Once you've determined that, then you start
making a plan to achieve it.

Udachi !

Bill

PS Udachi means good luck. I say this because if I were a little luckier
I wouldn't have had to spend so much time, talent, treasure and efforts
sifting through all the girls or dusting myself off quite so many times. 

[NS1]

Or, you could research for 10 years or so.
And be about where you are now

[Muzh_1]

Morris, I'm a research scientist.

When I started this my analysis indicated that if I started gathering data I was going to end up discarding the project. So I committed one of science's major blasphemy: I took a leap of faith. 

Hope this helps. 

[Phelan]

Morris, I'm a research scientist.

When I started this my analysis indicated that if I started gathering data I was going to end up discarding the project. So I committed one of science's major blasphemy: I took a leap of faith. 

Hope this helps. 

I've concluded in my business life that doing business cases is an emotional process of granting oneself permission to move forward. When you look back after the smoke clears, you see that the business case never has anything to do with how things actually worked out. But it gave the impetus to move forward. Morris is going through the business case phase ..