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Information & Chat => Investment & Business Discussion => Topic started by: JeanClaude on March 10, 2010, 11:38:49 AM

Title: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 10, 2010, 11:38:49 AM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8

By the way, I have read somewhere that only Ukrainian nationals can buy farmland? Or is this the wrong country to invest into assest like that?


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Chris on March 10, 2010, 12:05:21 PM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8

By the way, I have read somewhere that only Ukrainian nationals can buy farmland? Or is this the wrong country to invest into assest like that?




The third biggest land holder/farmer (farmland) in Ukraine is a British Company, not sure how they go about buying it though. I was going to buy some 2-3 years ago but having a Ukrainian wife would have sorted out any problems, not sure if you as a foreignor can buy/own land or not and even if you could, it is still risky owning something where the rules can change on someones whim.

Chris
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 10, 2010, 12:53:56 PM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8

By the way, I have read somewhere that only Ukrainian nationals can buy farmland? Or is this the wrong country to invest into assest like that?




The third biggest land holder/farmer (farmland) in Ukraine is a British Company, not sure how they go about buying it though. I was going to buy some 2-3 years ago but having a Ukrainian wife would have sorted out any problems, not sure if you as a foreignor can buy/own land or not and even if you could, it is still risky owning something where the rules can change on someones whim.

Chris

Hey Chris, that is really weird, do you have a name of that company, so i can ask some questions in the legal forums
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 10, 2010, 01:19:09 PM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?

I'm not a huge alarmist, but I have been buying 1 South African Krugerrand every three months for the past 3 years - more to provide a bit of diversification than a fear about the collapse of the worldwide financial markets. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Manny on March 10, 2010, 03:38:46 PM
The Sovereign Society were tipping gold years ago.

The boat has sailed. When everyone knows about it - as with everything - it is time to sell.

Bill Hill once said, "When the Dummies are getting rich is the time you sell" - he was right.

Tech stocks, property bubble, the dollar (for us)........ when everyone knows, its time to bail. Everyone knows about metals right now.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 10, 2010, 05:59:32 PM
Manny,

All things equal you would be right, but i believe it is not a bubble as bubbles are artificially created by low interest rates.

Low interest rates-> your savings decline because  inflation surpasses interest on savings-> people run to the stockmarket-> overinvestment in stocks-> bubble.

Gold has been riding steadily since 2002 and sharply since 2006 (The Fed stopped publishing M3 numbers in 2006 so nobody knows how much USD is out there)

I hear Gold rising to 2000 easily, but it all depends on the action of the central banks, and it is not looking good! 
Your lucky the UK is not in the Eurozone, (Greece situation)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Herrie on March 11, 2010, 12:27:58 AM
....
Your lucky the UK is not in the Eurozone, (Greece situation)
I wouldn't be too sure about that. Stories go already that UK *might* be the next Greece. Pending elections and insecurities about the future policies of the government steer investors away from the UK. The GBP has been dropping again in the past few weeks due to this...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Chris on March 11, 2010, 01:23:17 AM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8

By the way, I have read somewhere that only Ukrainian nationals can buy farmland? Or is this the wrong country to invest into assest like that?




The third biggest land holder/farmer (farmland) in Ukraine is a British Company, not sure how they go about buying it though. I was going to buy some 2-3 years ago but having a Ukrainian wife would have sorted out any problems, not sure if you as a foreignor can buy/own land or not and even if you could, it is still risky owning something where the rules can change on someones whim.

Chris

Hey Chris, that is really weird, do you have a name of that company, so i can ask some questions in the legal forums

Jean Claude

Read this thread (http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php?topic=6541.msg92180#msg92180)

Quote from: Chris
Ukraine  has a huge farming potential, but it is clogged with small farms, growing patch-work quilts of near-subsistence crops, in between thousands of hectares of land abandoned years ago.

The soil is superb black loam and the rainfall in Western Ukraine at least is a very adequate 600mm - 700mm, long hot summer days ensure 6tonnes per hectare of milling wheat and 4tonnes per hectare of oilseed rape can be harvested under long summers clear blue skies.

However,  there is virtually no investment. Nobody will back what was the former breadbasket of the Soviet Union. Nobody, that is, apart from a few British entrepreneurs here and there who have already secured over 60,000ha of prime arable land and their goal is to secure over 500,000 hectares over the next five years.

This group of British entreprenuers are already the third largest farmer in Ukraine and soon it will be the largest.

Western Ukraine offers ideal growing conditions. Three hundred kilometres further east the soil is still as good, but rainfall is half what it is in this region.

Of course these British entreprenuers are using the latest farming equipment, and are therefore much more efficient than the horse and cart are in the pictures above. I have never seen Ukrainian farmers using anything as modern as this tractor below.


then check out Landkom (http://www.landkom.net/)

Sorry away on business no time to search for anymore at the moment.

Chris
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 11, 2010, 03:14:24 AM
Manny,

All things equal you would be right, but i believe it is not a bubble as bubbles are artificially created by low interest rates.


Investment bubbles are not created by artificially low interest rates but low rates are commonly found in bubble conditions. At their base markets are driven by what people think will happen and much less by underlying real factors and it is this that is the root cause of a bubble. A bubble is, IMHO, an expression of a group fantasy about some commodity or another. The fantasy being reinforced by the entry of new players into the market which leads to artificial scarcity and thus price inflation. It is this reason that leads to the commonly held (and pretty truthful) belief that once the man on the Clapham omnibus is talking about the bubble commodity then it is already time to exit the market because once the mass enters the market there is nobody else to drive the price upward.

Gold is intersting stuff because its trading price, like most oil, is usually denominated in US dollars and thus gold is much more a hedge against currency depreciation for holders of US dollars than it is for holders of any other currency. The effect of this is that if the dollar decreases in value then the price of gold, for dollar holders goes up but for holders of other currencies gold can actually stay stable or even get cheaper. Exactly the same process can be seen with gasoline prices at petrol stations.

So, for you Jean Claude as ( I am guessing) a holder of currencies other than the USD, what is happening to gold when denominated in your main currency? I suggest that for the recent past it HAS been appreciating but that could change.

For most buyers of gold the deal is more like a game of musical chairs. Most people will end up losing, money a few will win and those entering the market now are VERY unlikely to have the resources or skills to manage their investment well, after all, if they had they'd have been buying in yonks ago and would be selling round about now, or in the very near future, depending upon their degree of risk aversion.

Interestingly, the same thing happened on a forerunner to this forum in respect of real estate. RE became a topic of interest with loads of newly minted 'experts' touting their favourite strategies or peddling free advice. Within a matter of months they were all eating their shirts! The fun bit was that one could look at the fundamentals and say, with confidence, that they were going to become short eaters.

Gold is getting to be a bit of a gamble now because, apart from the market reaching saturation, many major currencies are engaged in a battle of beggar my neighbour by trying to devalue in relation to other currencies, this makes the forex markets much more volatile and harder to predict and so using a currency proxy (gold), priced in a secondhand currency (USD) becomes a distinctly dicey deal.

Don't forget that historically gold's value as a store of wealth was its portability and relative scarcity. Hiding a decent value of gold in one's personal clothing is not hard. Hedging against inflation (currency devaluation) is a much more recent phenomenon since we moved away from the gold standard toward fiat currencies.

WRT farm land in Ukraine as I understand it there is a moratorium on land sales for Ukrainians AND foreigners so you'd have to lease the land. This is a big issue as it means that farmers are unable to access finance as securitisation of their major asset (land) is pretty much impossible so acquiring capital for investment is difficult. This has been an issue since the 1990's and one which should have been dealt with by now but the government is afraid, with justification, that free sale of land would lead to agribusinesses moving toward a new form of collectivisation where the landowners would not be Ukrainian and owner ship would be taken out of the hands of the current landowners, the former collective workers. Ukraine agriculture is an odd business. The government is in a catch-22 they KNOW what needs to be done to improve productivity but can not do it because the almost inevitable result would be the loss of most of the agricultural land to foreign control (de facto collectivisation) and, as policy, this is anathema to governments of all colours and has been for many years.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 11, 2010, 05:30:06 AM
Don't forget that historically gold's value as a store of wealth was its portability and relative scarcity. Hiding a decent value of gold in one's personal clothing is not hard. Hedging against inflation (currency devaluation) is a much more recent phenomenon since we moved away from the gold standard toward fiat currencies. 

Exactly !  The fees involved with assaying gold each time you want to change title to the property make it a rather inappropriate short-term trading vehicle.  My overall retirement portfolio is close to $500,000 with no exposure to precious metals.  I thought a little diversification in these uncertain times might prove beneficial.  In the next three years I'm looking to have 5% of my total portfolio in gold coins, preferably Krugerrands, appraised by a recognized services as real, sealed in plastic, rated as to condition and therefore highly liquid. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 11, 2010, 01:56:29 PM
 
Quote
Investment bubbles are not created by artificially low interest rates but low rates are commonly found in bubble conditions.

No that is not true, "pump and dump cycles" are caused by central banks (government) and their manipulation of the money supply by creating wealth out of nothing through the fractional reserve banking system on "irregular deposits contracts" (Note: this is different then savingsaccount!!). The "dump" cycle is the free market (the real market) destroying this fake wealth!

Although the practise of banks using the "irregular deposit contracts" as a source for investing was very illegal (till 1934 in Europe at least) it has now been sectioned by law as government uses the "primary banking" institutes as subsidiaries in the money creation process.

It is just a delayed form of Mugabenomics! Since 1970 the USD has lost 75% of its value through inflation.

Quote
Don't forget that historically gold's value as a store of wealth

Gold is the real value, the rest is just ink on paper (fiat) money (the government uses force of arms -law- to let your forcefully accept this paper as a "store" of your labor) , the reason why politicians hate gold, its because you cannot create gold out of thin air as you would paper fiat Money by running a printing press and thereby stealing your savings via inflation
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 11, 2010, 06:21:31 PM
Jean, you need to read history. Speculative bubbles have been going on for centuries, before central banks existed, two that you may not have read about (coz you'd not have written as you did if you knew this stuff) but that illustrate the point are the Tulip Mania in the Netherlands in the 17th century and the South Sea Bubble in the 18th century. Neither were due to central banking or even low interest rates. The latter case was actually enabled by HIGH interest rates which in turn enabled a company with a monopoly to offer the prospect of uncharacteristically high rates of return on investments. It became fashionable to own shares in the Sough Sea Company and even though the company printed more and more shares a shortage caused prices to rise unfeasibly high and there was an inevitable crash.

It has become fashionable to blame all ills in the world upon FRB and central banks but it simply is not true. FRB has its problems but market prices are only ever a reflection of the belief of buyers and sellers. It is true that general price levels tend to follow money supply but that is a more general effect and is called price inflation.  However you in your subsequnet post posited a new reason for bubbles, forgetting about your first idea.

It IS true to suggest, as you did, that a fall in prices after a speculative bubble reflects a reallocation of investment to more sensible places but that is entirely obvious and rates a big DUH? on the scale of insightful thought. ;)

Gold has NO intrinsic value. Its only value is what we choose to believe. We could choose, as other cultures have done, to value certain kinds of sea shells. Gold has some advantages, it does not break and it is convenient to divide and subdivide but gold is not even particularly rare. As I noted, historically its value was as a store of wealth as generations numberless of refugees can testify.
This article explains in simple terms about the palce of gold in our economy and psyche: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/11/23/business/5146864&sec=business you might want to note that in very general terms the value of gold expressed in dollars follws the CPI, ie, in the long run the value of gold in real terms remains fairly constant which is its true 'value'. In the short term there will always be arbitrage opportunities but you can see from that chart that the arbitrage opportunity right now is very small.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 11, 2010, 06:28:06 PM
I have been in the gold biz for the past thirty years. Self employed in it for twenty of that. Probably one of the few people you have known who can say they get paid in gold. I am going post the following in plain speak.

Quote from Shakespear:

Quote
Exactly !  The fees involved with assaying gold each time you want to change title to the property make it a rather inappropriate short-term trading vehicle.  My overall retirement portfolio is close to $500,000 with no exposure to precious metals.  I thought a little diversification in these uncertain times might prove beneficial.  In the next three years I'm looking to have 5% of my total portfolio in gold coins, preferably Krugerrands, appraised by a recognized services as real, sealed in plastic, rated as to condition and therefore highly liquid.

and:

Quote
I'm not a huge alarmist, but I have been buying 1 South African Krugerrand every three months for the past 3 years - more to provide a bit of diversification than a fear about the collapse of the worldwide financial markets.

So you have about 12 "Rands" plus the self assurance that they are real by getting an authenticity certificate from some sort of recognized service. As someone who buys coins for my customers I give you a few comments on this. I have never seen a counterfeit gold coin but I have seen counterfeit silver dollars. I seen some last Monday. Usually a magnet will detect them as they are made of steel. Also they are tumbled to age them. Mostly they come out of China. In regards to gold coin it would be easy to tell a fake from the real thing. Gold coins have a specific density that is next to impossible to reproduce. One could do it with tungsten but the cost would be prohibitive. Tungsten has been used with gold bullion (bars) in the 400 Troy Ounce range to rip off the big boys. One ounce gold coins no one would bother with. So it's just a matter to take a good look at the coin and feel it's weight (density) and that will tell you if it's gold or not. Roughly a present day coin is about half the weight of a same size silver coin and a gold coin is about twice the weight of a silver, roughly. A gold coin looks and feels like it is worth something unlike the slugs we call coins now. Frankly I do not see the need for documentation. Of course there are those who make a living appraising things who might disagree...

The preferred coin among myself and my peers in the business is the Canadian Maple leaf. Reason being is that it is 99.99% fine gold and not alloyed with base metals like the US Eagle (90%) and SA Rand (91.66%). The later two have to be refined (what I do) to pure metal (like the Maple Leaf) in order to be used for where gold is usually consumed (dental and jewelry alloys).




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 11, 2010, 07:38:08 PM

It is just a delayed form of Mugabenomics! Since 1970 the USD has lost 75% of its value through inflation.

 its because you cannot create gold out of thin air as you would paper fiat Money by running a printing press and thereby stealing your savings via inflation


and from Andrewfi quote:
Quote
Gold has NO intrinsic value. Its only value is what we choose to believe. We could choose, as other cultures have done, to value certain kinds of sea shells. Gold has some advantages, it does not break and it is convenient to divide and subdivide but gold is not even particularly rare. As I noted, historically its value was as a store of wealth as generations numberless of refugees can testify.

BTW I do not need to be reminded that price increases are not the same as inflation.

Anyway being old enough to have lived over the years in question I can add something here. It was the summer of '65 when I helped my parents paint their way into for a down payment on a new house. Three bedrooms, one bath, hardwood floors throughout ranch home with basement. Brand new, $20,000. Five years later they sold it for $25,000. A candy bar was 10 cents. A gallon of gasoline 25 cents. Today that home now sells for $200,000. A candy bar is a buck. Gasoline $2.50. What happened? Starting in the mid sixties was the Vietnam war and Johnson's "Great Society". France decided they wanted their gold back from America who had been holding it. They sent warships to escort it back. Europe and elsewhere were turning their US dollars reserves in for gold at it's fixed price of $35 an ounce. The US gold reserves dwindled from 21,000 tons to just 7,000 when Nixon slammed the gold window shut in August '71. Take a look at the chart to see what happened next,

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/cpi-1913.png)

I disagree with Andrew that gold has no intrinsic value, that it is not particularly rare and that the central banks are not particularly to blame for our currency devaluation.

Gold has many uses besides it's use in storage of wealth, jewelry, dental and electronics etc.

It is rare enough the argument is made that it is useless as a medium of exchange as there is so little of it. The illustration is that all the gold mined throughout history would barely fill two Olympic sized swimming pools. ?

The Central bankers and with their cover the politicians, control the money supply. They have done a disgraceful job of it these past 40 years. This is why with the soon-to-be multi-trillion dollar annual deficits people are turning to gold. The IMF does liquidate some of their gold holdings to suppress the price but the gold keeps getting gobbled up. Eventually our entitlement society will understand that we cannot maintain our standard of living by printing up money or borrowing it from Japan, China and the OPEC nations. Then the new gold rush will begin.

Andrew buddy, you should have more respect for the noble metal.



Maxx








Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: hector on March 12, 2010, 05:00:45 PM
Gold is a suckers' bet that is fed to you by traders who own gold and wish to see it appreciate so they can gain from your investment. You only want gold if you have over a million dollars and want to invest 3% of that million.

If you live in the U.S., I would avoid buying Gold for concerns of inflation of the U.S. dollar. Inflation has been flat over the past six months. You're not going to gain anything in short.

In the long run for the past 30 years, Gold has not appreciated in value to match the U.S. consumer price index that tracks inflation. You are not gaining anything in the long term if you lay the gold price curve over the CPI curve. If gold was inflation adjusted then it would be over 10 times the actual price that it sells for today. That's a suckers' bet.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 12, 2010, 05:15:34 PM
So you have about 12 "Rands" plus the self assurance that they are real by getting an authenticity certificate from some sort of recognized service. As someone who buys coins for my customers I give you a few comments on this. I have never seen a counterfeit gold coin but I have seen counterfeit silver dollars. I seen some last Monday. Usually a magnet will detect them as they are made of steel. Also they are tumbled to age them. Mostly they come out of China. In regards to gold coin it would be easy to tell a fake from the real thing. Gold coins have a specific density that is next to impossible to reproduce. One could do it with tungsten but the cost would be prohibitive. Tungsten has been used with gold bullion (bars) in the 400 Troy Ounce range to rip off the big boys. One ounce gold coins no one would bother with. So it's just a matter to take a good look at the coin and feel it's weight (density) and that will tell you if it's gold or not. Roughly a present day coin is about half the weight of a same size silver coin and a gold coin is about twice the weight of a silver, roughly. A gold coin looks and feels like it is worth something unlike the slugs we call coins now. Frankly I do not see the need for documentation. Of course there are those who make a living appraising things who might disagree...

The preferred coin among myself and my peers in the business is the Canadian Maple leaf. Reason being is that it is 99.99% fine gold and not alloyed with base metals like the US Eagle (90%) and SA Rand (91.66%). The later two have to be refined (what I do) to pure metal (like the Maple Leaf) in order to be used for where gold is usually consumed (dental and jewelry alloys).

Maxx:

What would you recommend as the best cost retail outlet to buy small lots of gold coins?  I understand that by purchasing them one at a time my fees are the highest but I just can't afford to buy in bigger lots.  What is the best place for a small lot buyer like me to buy odd lots of golf coins at the lowest transaction cost?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 12, 2010, 05:38:57 PM
Maxx, there is traded good in the world that is worth anything other than what people are willing to pay for it. Gold is no exception. That is why gold has no intrinsic value.

Gold has uses and so we can place a value on gold based upon supply and demand for those uses. If we broaden 'use' to include as a hedge against currency risk (which includes inflation!) then we should expect that gold will never, over the long term, do anything other than track the CPI. That's because most of the gold in the world is stored as bullion, coin or jewelry; all other uses are not enough to wag the tail of the dog, but even those uses, in the end will tend to track the CPI becasue of the price rises then gold is taken out of storage and used in 'real' use.

In times when I have serious doubts about society - world war, pogrom or persecution of me and mine then I want to have some gold with me when I become a refugee. Absent that situation, whatever I think of how the Fed is manageing the US economy I see no benefit in holding gold in my house and CERTAINLY not in bullion storage.

As I noted arbitrage opportunites present themselves just as they do with real estate, forex or most other traded goods. heck, even a simple retailer is taking advantage iof arbitrage every time he buys from a wholesaler or distributor and resells to a client. ;)

Hector is spot on here.

Oh, Maxx, inflation can be defined as a general rise in prices. Price rises in and of themselves are not a sign of inflation. To be honest, I am at least as comfortable with a definition that links money supply and inflation because in the end prices rise to meet the supply of money. If output does not increase as fast as money supply then we have a general rise in prices and inflation. Thus the price rises are merely a symptom of the inflation not the inflation itself, the inflation is the increase inthe money supply.

Of course the US restricts information about money supply so we do not know in truth what inflation is making the CPI the nearest thing to a deent proxy that we have and the US has been exporting dollars for a couple of generations and thus internal money supply has been restricted in a manner not possible for most other countries in the world.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 12, 2010, 07:05:26 PM
I found an old photo from 1981 of some gold I refined and poured into some bars and shot.

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/Gold.jpg)


Quote
Maxx, there is traded good in the world that is worth anything other than what people are willing to pay for it. Gold is no exception. That is why gold has no intrinsic value.

Until gold can be made synthetically like diamonds it will always have value. The argument you and Hector are trying make is that it is a fool's investment. I know a number of people who have told me they wished they had put their IRAs into gold back when it was $252 an ounce (10 years ago). Can you imagine where it's going with our huge budget deficits? $1.4 trillion (really 1.88 trillion) in fy 2009 and projected for 2010 $1.6 trillion (plus another 500 billion on off budget items). Where is the dollar going? Zimbabwe?

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/Trilliondollarnote.jpg)


Quote
In times when I have serious doubts about society - world war, pogrom or persecution of me and mine then I want to have some gold with me when I become a refugee. Absent that situation, whatever I think of how the Fed is manageing the US economy I see no benefit in holding gold in my house and CERTAINLY not in bullion storage.

When you see the need to have gold it will be too late to acquire it. It will be too expensive to purchase unless you are rich.

Besides "end of the world" scenarios which sophisticates usually reject there are the two other reasons to have gold. One to maintain the purchasing power of your money. Two for the increase over the rate of inflation when the gold price raises due to it's supply shortage. Gold is brought to the market by two means. Gold mining and gold scrap. Each supplies about 50% of what goes to the market. I and other secondary refiners (scrap and manufacturing refining) I have talked to have noticed a significant drop in scrap buying by our clients. The public seems to be running out of their old gold jewelry. Mining does not seem to be increasing enough to take up the slack. Only gold sales by the Western Central banks are keeping a lid on the price. How long can they keep that up... or... ah down? I see an eventually breakout on the price. Maybe a few drops along the way but the trend is up.

Quote
If you live in the U.S., I would avoid buying Gold for concerns of inflation of the U.S. dollar. Inflation has been flat over the past six months. You're not going to gain anything in short.

Gold is not for short term investment. Inflation being flat (if it is. Food?) for 6 months is something to expect during a recession and people are worried. Deflation might rule the day up into all the money the Fed is creating kicks in. It has been likened to the pull back of the ocean right before a Tsunami rises up (hyperinflation) and washes everything away. Who knows but what other option besides printing up a lot of money to pay our debts and entitlement obligations?



Maxx



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Donhollio on March 12, 2010, 07:45:44 PM
  I remember when gold was $250 USD an ounce, and marijuana was at par. Now the demon weed has dropped below the $250 CAD mark and gold has soared. It's like kickin a bro when he's down  :LIMP:

 Maxx I have always been into foundry hobby work, however my crucible never held anything close to yours in value. Impressive :8)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 12, 2010, 07:47:56 PM
very interesting discussion. Thanks for contributing all of you, guys!  tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 13, 2010, 12:24:47 AM
Maxx, there is no rule of nature that states gold has any value whatsoever. In some places sea shells were thought of as we see gold today. In the Netherlands in the early 17th century they went mad for tulip bulbs. The value of gold is only what you or I are willing to pay.

If you set store by gold then you are, in essence, betting that over time enough people will maintain the collective belief that the price of gold will remain roughly equal to what it is today, in real terms. There is no fundamental economic reason why we should expect gold to become more valuable over time, in real terms.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: curiogeo7 on March 13, 2010, 01:45:51 AM
Gold in small bits and pieces, are a good thing. Do you really think any one will be able to make change for a solid gold coin? ???
 But true value "objects"?
 toilet paper, bic lighters. tampax. :nod:
As I sell gem stones, in hard times, I say most of these are a joke.
 A diamond is truly worthless, the value is completely fake. :'(
Buy a ruby, or emerald, untreated, good cut.
 Just my 0.02 worth.
  Great posts, informative.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: msmoby on March 13, 2010, 07:21:51 AM
Anyone think investing in this part of Detroit might be a better investment?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/7427691/Detroit-family-homes-sell-for-just-10.html

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 13, 2010, 12:42:25 PM

Here is some recent gold news.


Self made Billionaire George Soros trash talks gold as an investment:

Quote
Davos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'
Gold is now "the ultimate bubble", billionaire investor George Soros has declared, sparking fears that prices for the precious metal may soon suffer a tumble.
 
By Edmund Conway in Davos
Published: 6:15AM GMT 28 Jan 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/7085504/Davos-2010-George-Soros-warns-gold-is-now-the-ultimate-bubble.html

Three weeks later self made Billionaire George Soros is reported to have doubled his investment in gold.   

Quote
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35428772/Soros_Doubled_Gold_ETF_Investment_Buys_Citi

Soros Doubled Gold ETF Investment, Buys Citi
Published: Wednesday, 17 Feb 2010 | 3:52 AM ET


By: Reuters
Billionaire investor George Soros' hedge fund more than doubled its bet on the price of gold during the fourth quarter, a portion of the firm's total U.S.-listed equity holdings of $8.8 billion at the end of 2009.

Self made Billionaire Jim Rogers and friend of self made Billionaire George Soros says:

Quote
Jim Rogers Gold Bubble 2010

http://commoditysurge.blogspot.com/2010/01/jim-rogers-gold-bubble-2010.html


Jim Rogers was talking investing in 2010 recently, and he said the continual concerns about the possibility of a gold bubble are unfounded, and still maintains the position that gold will eventually reach $2000 an ounce, although when that will happen of course can't be known.



Rogers added that gold is going up in price because of the falling value in the U.S. dollar, concerns over inflation, consumption of gold by China and India, and the buying up of gold by central banks.

The only bubble Jim Rogers is concerned about is one in the U.S. government bond market. Otherwise he said there isn't another bubble he sees emerging anywhere.



If there's a reason for gold prices rising, there isn't a bubble, according to Rogers. It's when everyone starts buying gold without knowing why is when you need to be concerned about a gold bubble.

As of now, the majority of people on the street haven't even looked to gold as an investment, so concerns that way are irrelevant.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 13, 2010, 12:55:38 PM
Maxx, I'd never say there are not arbitrgage opportunities and Soros is less of an investor and much more an arbitrageur. I am a tad uncertain that I, the man in the Clapham onmnibus and even your good self have the detailed market knowledge available to Soros and even less his resources to trade gold in a liquid manner.

I am pretty sure that Soros is well aware of the power of his words and even a fraction of a point shift that might be attributable to a comment about his intent with regard to gold would have an effect worth millions in terms of windfall profits. By commenting as he did and then letting it be known that he was now increasing his gold holdings he would have benefitted from any dip in prices after the first comment and then a rise after the second. Classic arbitrage move. Guess who puts the windfall profit into Soros' pocket? The mug punter buying teeny tiny amounts of gold as an 'investment' Each buyer and seller pays a 'dumb tax' that goes directly into the pockets of those better able to benefit.

OF COURSE gold will hit $2000 and OF COURSE the only question is when. A degree of Master of the Patently Obvious to the writer of that comment! Devaluation of the dollar (inflation) makes it inevitable but I'd bet that the time horizon is further out in the mind of the comment maker than it is in the minds of the sheeple reading it.

One advantage of gold to large investors/arbitrageurs is that the market in gold is very unregulated and so market manipulations such as you pointed out are allowed. The same kinds of comment made in respect of a company stock would likely get the speaker/investor into a deal of unwelcome hot water.

Oh, if the consumer level newsletters on investing that cross my desk are continually bleating on about gold, in one way or another then you can be sure that gold fever is already reaching the mass market. If this forum has posters on such a topic then it is pretty much inevitable that the price is about to drop. The music is about to stop and the mugs will be left holding the parcel that menas they are losing their shirts.
Look back to the a long forgotten forum. By the time we were seeing loads of posts about how great an investment RE was and how much money folks were making the market had already stalled in a few US markets and the jig was already up.

Wanna know how to see when the next big thing is about to go bust? Read this forum. When you see posts on the subject here then SELL SELL SELL as fast as you can, the ride is about to go fast and downhill.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 13, 2010, 03:01:11 PM
Wanna know how to see when the next big thing is about to go bust? Read this forum. When you see posts on the subject here then SELL SELL SELL as fast as you can, the ride is about to go fast and downhill.

I agree with you up to this point. As Jim Rogers said "the majority of people haven't looked at gold as an investment" and this includes here. With gold the people here talk and not do with Shakespear being the exception. They will sleep  :Zzzzsleep: until something dramatic happens. Until then when they have an extra $1200 to invest it will be for a RT ticket to the FSU. Topics like this will be overshadowed by threads on "Russian women's cleavage" or "Sex on the first meeting, is it OK?".

Remember if gold falls it can only go down so far. The suppliers of gold by mining have rather high operating costs. Most mines gold has to be at about $700 a T.O. to break even.

The big thing is where you think the economy is heading. Where do you think the economy is heading Andrew? Say in the next few years up to ten? How will our politicians deal with the increasing national debt and entitlements? Will they be responsible and cut spending big time and tell the people "NO!" Or will they resort to the printing press? Or is there another possibility?


Maxx
 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 13, 2010, 03:14:28 PM
Once gold is out of the ground the cost of production is immaterial, just as once a house is built the selling cost has no relation to the cost of the land or the building costs. As, at any given time, the volume of gold already produced dwarfs the amount of gold produced at any particular instant the producers, even if they withold production can not influence the market over much. All that will happen is that bullion will be placed into the market.

You are right to note that not everybody is ever likely to be buying gold but once it beocmes a topic of mass jibber jabber then you know that the market is about as big as it will get which means that the next move is downward, it is always thus coz that is how markets work.

It does not matter what I think of the future. However curiogeo7 was on the button about tampax and similar. I might want to have gold to transport my wealth from one place to another (but most people will never do this) but if things got bad, really bad, then a box of Tampax, a can of baked beans of a load of fishhooks will be much more easily converted to stuff that I need than a lump of metal that few people will even be able to tell if it is gold or not.
If I were a refugee I'd do as my girlfriend's grandparents did and put gold and stones into the linings of my clothes but even they relied upon being able to convert back into cash at some point and in the early 90's that's exactly what they did. Gold and gems are a much more compact form of wealth store than currency and that is why it is so useful, but it is terribly illiquid and so they lost a packet in the conversion. We get confused about this stuff at our cost. ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 13, 2010, 03:18:57 PM
The mug punter buying teeny tiny amounts of gold as an 'investment' Each buyer and seller pays a 'dumb tax' that goes directly into the pockets of those better able to benefit.


I generally agree with your sentiment when you're talking about "Joe Average" trying to compete for short-term speculative profits with the big boys.  

However, it is my opinion that if you are using capital that is committeed to a portfolio of diversified investments earmarked to fund retirement and have an investment holding timeframe of 10-20 years; an appropriate holding in gold can positively contribute to the positive overall returns of your holdings.

I'm talking about an allocation of 3-5% of the total in gold (bullion or coins) with the 95-97% balance being in stocks or bonds.      
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 13, 2010, 03:26:01 PM
The mug punter buying teeny tiny amounts of gold as an 'investment' Each buyer and seller pays a 'dumb tax' that goes directly into the pockets of those better able to benefit.


I generally agree with your sentiment when you're talking about "Joe Average" trying to compete for short-term speculative profits with the big boys.  

However, it is my opinion that if you are using capital that is committeed to a portfolio of diversified investments earmarked to fund retirement and have an investment holding timeframe of 10-20 years; an appropriate holding in gold can positively contribute to the positive overall returns of your holdings.

I'm talking about an allocation of 3-5% of the total in gold (bullion or coins) with the 95-97% balance being in stocks or bonds.      

I ain't an investment advisor but yes, it seems that gold, held long term, will likely be a safe but low return investment. You might even be lucky and be able to sell at a high point and be a very happy camper. This is a situation remarkably similar to real estate. Long term returns on real estate through capital appreciation are in line with inflation but a lucky person can take a windfall profit if they can liquidate at a high spot in the market cycle. Sors et al are, I am sure taking a short term view; as are the pundits with something to sell.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 13, 2010, 03:40:10 PM
I ain't an investment adviser but yes, it seems that gold, held long term, will likely be a safe but low return investment.

I'm not trying to "hit it out of the grounds for 6" here.  I'm looking to balance out the overall return of my holdings assuming an unstable investment environment. 

The global events that would lead to a rise in the price of gold would generally be associated with a decline in the value of stocks and bonds.  I'm willing to lower my return a bit in the good years if it will help cushion the blow a bit in the bad years.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Manny on March 13, 2010, 06:05:13 PM
As a 3-5% holding for the future - it can do no worse than break even over the long term I think. Many stocks will do much worse. Despite current market highs, assuming it doesn't move much, inflation will catch up and sooner or later and it will look cheap again (as property does).

Andrew is right that when there is white noise everywhere about something, it is about to fall. I noted above that one newsletter I (and Chris and Cufflinks) read was touting gold several years ago. They have a short/medium view. As a long term holding, dripping into gold over time as Shakey suggests is not a bad move. The benefit of dripping into something is that your average buy-in is buffered by differing values over time thus reducing risk of dumping all your chips buying in a speculative bubble.

I will add that Andrew is the economist, and I the layman who reads some stuff and dabbles a bit. But, I think that anyone's portfolio that is running level about now is doing OK. Many blokes with 7 figure salaries - who are paid to do this stuff - have lost money in recent times.

I lost a few quid in Iceland last year, compensated for it by importing dollar goods when the dollar was $2/£1 and holding and selling now. My Russia fixed term fund has just returned exactly the original investment of a year and a half ago. Property is down from its highs but still twice+ what I paid (excepting Estonia - that will take time) originally.

The economist Robert Beckman said "Cash is king in the downwave" - I think he was right. Collect cash and wait for opportunities. Buy right and sail into the upwave.

Gold? A bit sleepy for me long term and I am not into buying in at market highs like we have now. But as a long term investment buying in over time? Yes. It is unlikely to lose. A safer bet than Lukeoil this week.  :whistle:


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 13, 2010, 07:35:42 PM
It does not matter what I think of the future.

It does if I want to understand what your opinions are based upon. I have been hearing you say over the years that America's days in the sun are about to set. That we have foolishly borrowed against our houses to buy consumables from China and so on and this will have a price. Andrew, you sure called it right back in 2008 that GM would go bankrupt. It happened as you said last year. Are Manny's and Shakespear's investments in a safe environment with the sudden doubling of the money supply a year ago, the huge increases in our national debts, near two trillion dollar US deficits, real unemployment at 20% and the offshoring of our manufacturing base? What happens if interest rates rise and all those short term US bonds come due? Do you believe there will be a currency crisis for the dollar and pound? Many economist do. Will America still be the beacon for the world? Will the Socialists and Keynesian's in power bring economic prosperity to the US and the UK?


Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 14, 2010, 02:46:58 AM
Maxx, by saying it does not matter about the future I meant this:
If we posit a future in which there is no cash then we have other things to worry about than having gold bullion in storage in some remote holding facility - much more important will be the gold I pry from your dead body as dental work, wedding bands and jewelry.

If we posit an uncertain future but one in which there is a functionng paper currency then gold is not more than something to buy. In such a world I'd want to be holding the most liquid store of value/medium of exchange, or close proxies such as baked beans or fish hooks. Gold would be of little use to me.

It is hard to see a future in which holding gold will, as a rule, be better than holding cash or consumables.

The primacy of the United States may well be at an end but that does not mean that the US will not be a significant player in the world, there are too many people and too much in the way of natural resources for that to happen. The UK did not shrivel up and blow away after the flag was lowered on the empire. The UK is still one of the world's largest economies, with some of the highest living standards and a vital trading partner and investor. The same is true of the US. It is inconceivable that we will have a Mad Maxian post apocalyptic United States and a prosperous and civillised ASEAN and EU. I doubt that we will have a Mad Max world in the near future. ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 14, 2010, 04:51:10 AM
I agree with Andrew that in a real major crisis a can of baked beans, a loaf of bread or a gallon of gasoline may have more value than gold. 

Gold is just a lump of metal like lead and iron.  The only real thing that gives it more value is its scarecity and the uses it has.  The true source of it's value is the mindset of those who think it has some financial magic.  Without that, it's price would only be governed by the cost of production and the demand in the marketplace.  It is a bubble just like the housing market a few years ago and tulip bulbs centuries ago.  It just may be a more sustainable bubble due to the widespread illusion of it's safety and worth. 

Gold doesn't create anything.  It doesn't have sex and have little baby gold.  It doesn't go out and work an 8 to 5 job and bring back a paycheck.  It just is a lump that sits there.   It won't depreciate like a consumable, but also won't really provide any improvement in your life style.  Go out and buy a TV and it may be worthless in 10 years but will have provided a decade of entertainment and enjoyment.   Gold investment is actually bad for the economy.   It won't provide working capital for industry like a stock.  It won't provide money to loan like putting money in the bank.  It won't provide jobs like buying a TV.  It just sits there in the hope that more speculators will drive the price up.

Gold has value because it is seen as a sure fire way to safety and a way to make your money grow.  It is seen as the ultimate safe investment.   Isn't that what people thought about real estate a few years ago and at least with real estate you can live in the house, at least until the bank forecloses.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 14, 2010, 10:51:51 AM
If we posit an uncertain future but one in which there is a functioning paper currency then gold is not more than something to buy. In such a world I'd want to be holding the most liquid store of value/medium of exchange, or close proxies such as baked beans or fish hooks. Gold would be of little use to me.

I think this description would be accurate for gold bullion.  That is one of the reasons I selected gold coins for my chosen investment vehicle.  Remember, they ACTUALLY ARE currency.  They're recognizable, easily bought and sold and come in denominations of 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz and 1/10 oz.  Therefore in some kind of unplanned total world financial collapse, they could actually be used to purchase necessary items and "change" could be made.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on March 14, 2010, 11:16:39 AM
Maxx,

This might be the first time someone other than me has presented the real inflation (devaluation) of living in America.  During the same period of a 10 fold REAL inflation rate, wages have gone up about 4 to 6 fold.

I have blogged on this several times, and I have a book outline in the works.

Automobiles, housing, and fuel have not gone up as much since 1980 as have REAL FOOD - flour, sugar, and even candy bars.  The impression has been that wages have kept pace with inflation because our big ticket items have not gone up rapidly.

But, almost all consumables (luxuries and staples) are at 7 to 13 fold 1980 prices. 

Government wages have done well - but, their bubble must be burst soon, or we are in real trouble.

Private school was twice as expensive in 1980 compared to public school.  Now public school is 2.5 times more expensive than private . . . Universities are 10 times more expensive than they were.  Rental rates are around 4 to 5 times what they were.

The illusion is that we have not had run away inflation.  Ironically, gold has not done as well as I thought it should.

I have never focused on gold, and unlike asia, we have never had gold as a common trading item.

Great post!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 14, 2010, 12:20:45 PM

I think this description would be accurate for gold bullion.  That is one of the reasons I selected gold coins for my chosen investment vehicle.  Remember, they ACTUALLY ARE currency.  They're recognizable, easily bought and sold and come in denominations of 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz and 1/10 oz.  Therefore in some kind of unplanned total world financial collapse, they could actually be used to purchase necessary items and "change" could be made.  

I have never been warm to gold bullion for the same reasons. Refiners such as myself are skeptical of bullion bars when they come in and require that they be assayed first before payment is made on them. The exception is small one ounce bullion bars such as the Swiss Pamp or small bars of silver that are fabricated into an attractive bar from a recognized refiner such as Englehard.

Silver coin is the way to go for small purchases in a world turned up side down. The pre '65 US coins would be good for this. The way I see it is gold would be used for major purchases for things like someone's motor home, houseboat, truck, generator, farm, second home etc. Silver and barter items would be for the small stuff. Non Hybrid garden seeds would be the real gold.

In regard to your question up thread about where is the best place to go to make singular ounce gold purchases. I get mine direct from the public and pay the market price for the metal. I have not searched out where to find the best bargains are for the public. When I have to find extra coins for my clients I have a refinery that buys my gold to get them for me. But it has been some time since they have done this for me. Usually my customers ask that I return gold shot that I make back to them. They sell this from time to time back through me.  I should be seeing my buyer in a day or two and I'll ask them details on their coin purchases and will pass this on to you.


Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 14, 2010, 12:50:16 PM
Ironically, gold has not done as well as I thought it should.
Great post!

Good post as well. Gold made a real rise in the last 10 years from 252 an ounce to now about eleven hundred but that would be making up for it's gross under price. When it was at it's lows ten years ago the gold mines were shutting down. The Homestake mine in South Dakota is a good example.  Many people argue that gold will rise up to an inflation adjusted level of $2300 an ounce based on what it was in 1980 when it was at $850 an ounce. That doesn't make much sense to me. There were different market forces in play back then. I see the price of gold rising due to shortages for industrial demand and Central bank purchases. Secondary (scrap) refineries and mines are slowing up as the metal is being depleted. This with the increased demand spells price increases. When a large segment of the general public catches on to buy gold then there will be a real bubble as Jim Rogers said.

I should add the metal could drop due to the dollar strengthening in comparison to the Euro or other factors. It will only be temporary though.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on March 14, 2010, 01:09:16 PM
Thank you for all of the discussions. It's so enjoyable and entertaining...

I wholeheartedly agree with Maxx about the possible financial and currency crisis here in the USA.  It would be like what happened to Zimbabwe if the Fed/US Treasury decided to monetize the huge deficit and debt by printing money to fund them.  I am seeing a possible hyperinflation coming here in the USA sometimes by 2015..

It's the reason why I have been accumulating gold and silver coins.  I have collected Maple Leaf .999 pure silver coins and American Eagle silver coins...  So, what kind of silver coins would be best to use for small purchases?  I was thinking of American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf since they would be recognizable... 

I am planning to buy 2 oz gold coins within a month.  What kind of gold coin do you recommend me to buy?  I am considering buying 2 1-oz Canadian Maple Leaf gold coins. 

I am going to buy lots of non-hybrid garden seeds.  THanks to Maxx...

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 14, 2010, 02:09:50 PM
Check this out

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

And Peter Schiff on RT (Russia Today) about his coming predictions for the US dollar. Schiff was right in his predictions of the falling real estate collapse  and how it would damage the economy while other experts including Bernake said there would be no problem. Good video.




Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on March 14, 2010, 02:53:43 PM

Check this out

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Maxx

Our debt is totally crazy.  We convinced the Japanese to try and borrow their way out of a recession and they got the forgotten decade (for the last 20 years).

And now we are getting it.  I do not think it will be as bad as Argentina, Mexico, or others - our leaders are promising they will not devalue.

They have promised to enslave our country.  The world believes we are enslaved to them to pay off this debt.  They may be right.

The only real wild card in the equation is:  "China's demand for oil jumped by an "astonishing" 28% in January"

Our demand went down, so prices are not being impacted strongly, but should that change - we are in trouble.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8563985.stm
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 26, 2010, 04:20:18 AM

Check this out

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Maxx

Our debt is totally crazy.  We convinced the Japanese to try and borrow their way out of a recession and they got the forgotten decade (for the last 20 years).

And now we are getting it.  I do not think it will be as bad as Argentina, Mexico, or others - our leaders are promising they will not devalue.

They have promised to enslave our country.  The world believes we are enslaved to them to pay off this debt.  They may be right.

The only real wild card in the equation is:  "China's demand for oil jumped by an "astonishing" 28% in January"

Our demand went down, so prices are not being impacted strongly, but should that change - we are in trouble.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8563985.stm



the latest key statistics from www.Shadowstats.com are:

Official Numbers      vs.      Real Numbers

Annual Consumer Price Inflation reported March 18, 2010
2.14%                                      9.39% (annualized March Rate)

U.S. Unemployment reported March 5, 2010
9.7%                                        21.6%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported February 26, 2010
0.15%                                      -4.62%


(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/monetary_base_chart.gif)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 26, 2010, 06:28:01 AM
From the Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph newspapers

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/PF-gordon-brown-go_1602795c.jpg)

Explain why you sold Britain's gold, Gordon Brown told
Gordon Brown has been ordered to release information before the general election about his controversial decision to sell Britain's gold reserves.
 
By Holly Watt and Robert Winnett
Published: 11:55AM GMT 24 Mar 2010


Gordon Brown pushed ahead with the of Britain's gold despite serious misgivings at the Bank of England, it is believed
The decision to sell the gold – taken by Mr Brown when he was Chancellor – is regarded as one of the Treasury's worst financial mistakes and has cost taxpayers almost £7 billion.

Mr Brown and the Treasury have repeatedly refused to disclose information about the gold sale amid allegations that warnings were ignored.
 

Following a series of freedom of information requests from The Daily Telegraph over the past four years, the Information Commissioner has ordered the Treasury to release some details. The Treasury must publish the information demanded within 35 calendar days – by the end of April.

The sale is expected to be become a major election issue, casting light on Mr Brown's decisions while at the Treasury.

Last night, George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, demanded that the information was published immediately. "Gordon Brown's decision to sell off our gold reserves at the bottom of the market cost the British taxpayer billions of pounds," he said. "It was one of the worst economic judgements ever made by a chancellor.
"The British public have a right to know what happened and why so much of their money was lost. The documents should be published immediately."

Between 1999 and 2002, Mr Brown ordered the sale of almost 400 tons of the gold reserves when the price was at a 20-year low. Since then, the price has more than quadrupled, meaning the decision cost taxpayers an estimated £7 billion, according to Mike Warburton of the accountants Grant Thornton.

It is understood that Mr Brown pushed ahead with the sale despite serious misgivings at the Bank of England. It is not thought that senior Bank experts were even consulted about the decision, which was driven through by a small group of senior Treasury aides close to Mr Brown.

The Treasury has been officially censured by the Information Commissioner over its attempts to block the release of information about the gold sales.
The Information Commissioner's decision itself is set to become the subject of criticism. The commissioner has taken four years to rule on the release of the documents, despite intense political and public interest in the sales. Officials have missed a series of their own deadlines to order the information's release, which will now prevent a proper parliamentary analysis of the disclosures.

It can also be disclosed that the commissioner has held a series of private meetings with the Treasury and has agreed for much of the paperwork to remain hidden from the public. The Treasury was allowed to review the decision notice when it was in draft form – and may have been permitted to make numerous changes.
In the official notice, the Information Commissioner makes it clear that only a "limited" release of information has been ordered.
Ed Balls, who is now the Schools Secretary, Ed Miliband, now the Climate Change Secretary, and Baroness Vadera, another former minister, were all close aides to the chancellor during the relevant period.

If the information is not released by the end of April, the Treasury will be in "contempt of court" and will face legal action. A spokesman said last night that the Treasury was not preparing to appeal against the ruling.

HOW AUCTIONS COST TAXPAYER £7BN
The price of gold has quadrupled since Gordon Brown sold more than half of Britain’s reserves.
The Treasury pre-announced its plans to sell 395 tons of the 715 tons held by the Bank of England, which caused prices to fall.
The bullion was sold in 17 auctions between 1999 and 2002, with dealers paying between $256 and $296 an ounce. Since then, the price has increased rapidly. Yesterday, it stood at $1,100 an ounce.

The taxpayer lost an estimated £7 billion, twice the amount lost when Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
The proceeds from the sales were invested in dollars, euros and yen. In recent years, most other countries have begun buying gold again in large quantities.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Chris on March 26, 2010, 07:13:43 AM
From the Daily Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph newspapers

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/PF-gordon-brown-go_1602795c.jpg)

Explain why you sold Britain's gold, Gordon Brown told
Gordon Brown has been ordered to release information before the general election about his controversial decision to sell Britain's gold reserves.
 
By Holly Watt and Robert Winnett
Published: 11:55AM GMT 24 Mar 2010


Gordon Brown pushed ahead with the of Britain's gold despite serious misgivings at the Bank of England, it is believed
The decision to sell the gold – taken by Mr Brown when he was Chancellor – is regarded as one of the Treasury's worst financial mistakes and has cost taxpayers almost £7 billion.

Mr Brown and the Treasury have repeatedly refused to disclose information about the gold sale amid allegations that warnings were ignored.
 

Following a series of freedom of information requests from The Daily Telegraph over the past four years, the Information Commissioner has ordered the Treasury to release some details. The Treasury must publish the information demanded within 35 calendar days – by the end of April.

The sale is expected to be become a major election issue, casting light on Mr Brown's decisions while at the Treasury.

Last night, George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, demanded that the information was published immediately. "Gordon Brown's decision to sell off our gold reserves at the bottom of the market cost the British taxpayer billions of pounds," he said. "It was one of the worst economic judgements ever made by a chancellor.
"The British public have a right to know what happened and why so much of their money was lost. The documents should be published immediately."

Between 1999 and 2002, Mr Brown ordered the sale of almost 400 tons of the gold reserves when the price was at a 20-year low. Since then, the price has more than quadrupled, meaning the decision cost taxpayers an estimated £7 billion, according to Mike Warburton of the accountants Grant Thornton.

It is understood that Mr Brown pushed ahead with the sale despite serious misgivings at the Bank of England. It is not thought that senior Bank experts were even consulted about the decision, which was driven through by a small group of senior Treasury aides close to Mr Brown.

The Treasury has been officially censured by the Information Commissioner over its attempts to block the release of information about the gold sales.
The Information Commissioner's decision itself is set to become the subject of criticism. The commissioner has taken four years to rule on the release of the documents, despite intense political and public interest in the sales. Officials have missed a series of their own deadlines to order the information's release, which will now prevent a proper parliamentary analysis of the disclosures.

It can also be disclosed that the commissioner has held a series of private meetings with the Treasury and has agreed for much of the paperwork to remain hidden from the public. The Treasury was allowed to review the decision notice when it was in draft form – and may have been permitted to make numerous changes.
In the official notice, the Information Commissioner makes it clear that only a "limited" release of information has been ordered.
Ed Balls, who is now the Schools Secretary, Ed Miliband, now the Climate Change Secretary, and Baroness Vadera, another former minister, were all close aides to the chancellor during the relevant period.

If the information is not released by the end of April, the Treasury will be in "contempt of court" and will face legal action. A spokesman said last night that the Treasury was not preparing to appeal against the ruling.

HOW AUCTIONS COST TAXPAYER £7BN
The price of gold has quadrupled since Gordon Brown sold more than half of Britain’s reserves.
The Treasury pre-announced its plans to sell 395 tons of the 715 tons held by the Bank of England, which caused prices to fall.
The bullion was sold in 17 auctions between 1999 and 2002, with dealers paying between $256 and $296 an ounce. Since then, the price has increased rapidly. Yesterday, it stood at $1,100 an ounce.

The taxpayer lost an estimated £7 billion, twice the amount lost when Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
The proceeds from the sales were invested in dollars, euros and yen. In recent years, most other countries have begun buying gold again in large quantities.


and if that is not bad enough, I would like him to explain this one away too:-


Labour's £1bn Whitehall reforms 'a waste of money'

Labour's repeated restructuring of Whitehall has cost £1bn in just four years but there is no evidence that the changes have reaped benefits for taxpayers, according to a report by the spending watchdog.

Gordon Brown accelerated reforms when he became prime minister, creating new departments, some of which were scrapped after less than two years. At least £200m a year was poured into redundancy payouts, new buildings and logos to rebrand departments between 2005 and 2009, the National Audit Office says.

Its report records a sharp increase in the number of departments being restructured after Brown became prime minister in 2007, but also carries a warning for the Tories - who are planning to abolish dozens of quangos - that plans to merge operations can be wasteful.

In the year that Brown became prime minister 10 departments were overhauled, compared with just three the previous year and none in the two years before that. The Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform and the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills, both created in 2007, lasted less than two years and were merged to form Lord Mandelson's Department for Business, Innovation and Skills last year.

It emerged that in 2006 John Prescott had spent thousands - including £645 to change the brass plate on the door of his offices in Whitehall - when the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister became the Deputy Prime Minister's Office.

Since 1980 the government has created 25 new government departments, compared with just two in the US. Thirteen of them no longer exist. But the true scale of the reforms has been much larger once quangos are accounted for.

Amyas Morse, the comptroller and auditor general, said the government was in a "constant state of change". He added: "At approximately £200m per annum, the costs are far from negligible and the reorganisations inevitably involve disruption and loss of service."

Edward Leigh, who chairs the Commons public accounts committee, said: "Designers of logos and makers of nameplates have had much reason to be grateful for central government's passion for constantly reorganising and renaming its departments. This is all costing a lot of public money without any cost-benefit analysis in advance or means of tracking any eventual benefits."

Auditors found that between May 2005 and June 2009 there were more than 90 reorganisations of central government and its arm's-length management bodies.

There has been no attempt to cost the changes by the government, although it was estimated to be about £780m. Researchers suggest the real figure is likely to be close to £1bn after 42 smaller reorganisations are included in the calculation.

Ministers have rarely set out the aims of a merger, so it was all but impossible for the auditors to establish whether the changes offered value for money. A survey of 51 reorganisations over the period suggested that staff were the most costly element of reforming departments and quangos, with costs inflated by payouts to people who had been made redundant.

Francis Maude, the shadow cabinet office minister, said: "Gordon Brown has had a reckless attitude to spending our money. This report shows his pledge to be a prudent chancellor was pure fiction."

The Cabinet Office said: "Value for money must always be a priority, but it is also important that the prime minister is able to structure the government, acting quickly if necessary, to best develop and implement the government's policies and deliver on key priorities that bring real benefits to people and public services."


 :'(
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 27, 2010, 06:31:40 PM

Central Banks Stashing Away Gold at Brisk Pace
Thursday, 25 Mar 2010 09:00 AM Article Font Size     
By: Dan Weil

Central banks around the world added 425.4 metric tons of gold to their reserves last year, the biggest increase since 1964, according to the World Gold Council.

That represents a 1.4 percent gain to put their holdings at 30,116.9 tons in total. The increase was the first since 1988.

Central banks in India, Russia and China were among those boosting their gold reserves last year, as the precious metal jumped 24 percent, hitting a record of $1,226 an ounce in December.

Central banks now possess 18 percent of all gold ever mined.

“There’s clearly been a renaissance of gold in central bankers’ minds,” Nick Moore, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland, told Bloomberg.

“It’s not just been central banks taking on gold, but a general shift for physical gold in the investment sector.”

Many are now singing gold’s praises, with the precious metal up about 3 percent so far this year.

“Gold is quietly, at the edge, becoming the world’s second reservable currency, supplanting the euro and rivaling the dollar,” money manager Dennis Gartman wrote in his Gartman Letter, obtained by Bloomberg.

“The trend shall continue months, if not years, into the future.”

David Skarica, editor of The Gold Stock Adviser, tells Moneynews.com that central banks will continue to buy gold.

“The next lot sold by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will go to China’s central bank,” he said. “The IMF has a supply overhang.”

© Moneynews. All rights reserved.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 28, 2010, 10:17:15 PM
it's a story...  Notice the date it was written


THE GREAT INFLATION, 2010-2012
by Robert Ross
August 1, 2007


"Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good. There is steepened money expansion, rising government spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock markets, and spectacular prosperity, all in the midst of temporary stable prices. Everyone benefits, and no one pays. That is the early part of the cycle."
- Dying of Money by Jens Parssons



The year is 2018. The students were excited. It was the first day of school at a prestigious university. One by one they filed in, sat down, pulled out paper and pen. Most were stylishly dressed. This was a private university and the majority of the students were from wealthy families. There was a palpable sense of excitement in this particular classroom. The chatter was beginning to reach a high pitch. This class, Economics 403, The Great Inflation, was being offered for the first time and the instructor, who had not yet entered the class was quite notable - world famous in fact. He had, a few years back, been convicted of orchestrating the Great Inflation. As a part of his sentencing agreement, he was to teach classes on the effects of inflation and consult with governments around the world.

Suddenly, as though on cue, the chatter died down and an aged, rather tired looking man entered the room, a bit disheveled, shoulders humped over. The top button of his shirt was undone and his tie looked as though it were an afterthought. He attempted to smile and said, in a low tone, "Good Morning." Some students responded with a "Good Morning," others just stared. "So this is the guy my parents talk about incessantly," one student whispered to another.

After clearing his voice, the instructor stated " This is Economics 403- the Great Inflation. We'll be studying what led up to the Great Inflation and what mistakes were made during this time period. Everything is on the table in this class - my conviction, who's to blame for the hyperinflation, the 18% unemployment rate in the years 2010 to 2012, the riots, and why a new currency was issued in 2013. We're going to talk in this classroom . . . we're going to talk a lot. My mission is to pass on to you the lessons learned from one of the more difficult periods in American history." He looked out into the classroom carefully examining each face. So young, he thought to himself, so young . . . " Questions?"

You could hear a pin drop. All heads went down, as though they were taking their final exams. Finally one brave soul raised her hand . . . "Yes," stated the instructor. "Ah . . . like . . . like, did you really cause it?" She paused. "What caused it?" Her voice rose in pitch to compensate for her nervousness. "My parents said it was a mess! Like, they said it was your fault!" She blurted out. Again, you could hear a pin drop. The students in unison nervously adjusted themselves in their seats. A few coughed. As accusatory as the question was though, the ice had been broken. The students now felt free to ask away.

"Look," the instructor said forcefully. In an instant his voice and mannerisms had changed. There was a noticeable anger in his tone. He had defended his actions at the Fed, during his court trials, and he would be defending himself now in the classroom. "We're going to cover everything in this class. But for now, let's just review a few things." Notebooks opened, pens were at the ready, as the instructor began his talk.

He looked away, as though trying to choose his words in a way that would be understood. "In 1971, Richard Nixon took us off the gold standard. Up until that point in American history, the dollar was essentially backed by gold." "Why gold?" a student blurted out. "Well, gold has been considered money for 5000 years. Gold is hard to find and in short supply. But the thing with gold was, and is, . . . it's a restraint." He paused for a moment, and repeated the word slowly . . . "restraint." He looked around the room. Did they get it? he thought to himself.

"Gold was, in fact, a discipline. The government could only print so much money, based on the amount of gold they possessed. Printing un-backed money (money not backed by gold) had been tried before in history - but it always failed. The Confederate dollar, the 'Continental' printed by the Continental Congress are a few examples."

"Well, what went wrong after that? a student quipped. "Nothing went wrong immediately, but rather, it was the beginning of a slow creeping inflation. A car that cost $3000 in 1971, would cost $7000 in 1980, $14,000 in 1990, $18,000 in the year 2000. Everything was going up in price, medical, housing, food and gas. The national debt grew dramatically too, from a manageable figure in 1970 to one trillion dollars in 1980, three trillion in 1990, and six trillion in 2000. By the end of 2007, the debt was nine trillion dollars and growing."

"Why was the government spending so much money?" Another student asked. "Without any restraints, it was easy. Just print it and put it out into the system. With this new found freedom, the government found itself taking on new responsibilities and creating new dependencies. Entitlements like the Drug Prescription program and Medicare grew without restraints. By the year 2009 the government had nationalized health care. By 2010 the baby boomers were retiring in droves, putting enormous strains on Social Security and Medicare. And by this time, most public institutions were in some way dependent on the federal government for their financial well being."

"At what point did things spin out of control?" asked another student. "Perhaps it was hurricane Katrina that set the stage for what was to take place. After Katrina, it was assumed that the federal government would pay for all of the consequences of any and all disasters, man made, or nature made. When the New Madrid fault, in Missouri, slipped in 2010, creating a 8.9 earthquake on the Richter scale, nobody was prepared for the costs - in the trillions of dollars. There were millions of people to feed, millions of homes to be rebuilt. There was cleanup and health issues in multiple states. Everybody looked to the government to pay for this. So, the Federal Reserve immediately lowered interest rates to near zero. The Federal government borrowed trillions of dollars, adding to the national debt. The system was flooded with money to supposedly create jobs. The printing presses were running nonstop. It was during this period that the public finally became aware of the fact that the dollar was just paper - backed by nothing. Prices skyrocketed due to excessive demand and short supplies. The value of the dollar plummeted, devastating the middle class. People spent their money as fast as they could, knowing that prices would go up the following day. This was the Great Inflation. It was inevitable, the earthquake just tipped the scales, so to speak."

"Why are you blamed for the Great Inflation?" a student asked. The instructor paused for a moment. "I'm a scapegoat" he said. "As the government grew in size, many citizens willingly abdicated their personal responsibilities. All of life's problems, over time, became the government's fault and responsibility to fix. Full employment was the government's responsibility. The high cost of medicine, gasoline, and food was the government's fault. Everyone looked to Washington to solve their problems. Politicians were elected because of economic promises made to their constituents. And, the politicians were more than happy to take on these responsibilities. After all, their job was to spend money, money created without restraint, by printing presses." The instructor paused for a moment, a long moment, creating a certain anticipation. "You could say, at the time, he paused again, "I was in charge of the printing presses." The classroom fell silent. Finally, one student out of discomfort with the lack of sound, asked "do you think you are . . . are responsible?" The instructor didn't hesitate, "Absolutely not! I gave the American people what they wanted, what they had grown to expect." "What was that?" the same student asked? "An economy created and managed by Washington . . . a false utopian economy" the instructor fired back.

A student in the back of the classroom stood up as if to signify that an important question was about to be asked. "I don't get it" he said, "we set up a new currency, the 'Amero' in 2013, which is going to be expanded to include Canada and Mexico in the future. But, the Amero isn't backed by anything either. What will prevent this from happening again - this inflation thing?"

The instructor looked out slowly, studying the faces. He calculated their ages and approximate life spans. "If you'll look at history, if you'll look at human nature, and you look at politicians, without a currency that's backed by something, something that restrains spending, then this inflationary cycle will happen again, and again, and again." He paused for a moment, and said slowly "It will happen again in your lifetime."

The instructor looked at his watch, realizing he was running out of time, flicked his wrist towards the door, signaling the students to leave. "Go home, talk to your friends about this, we'll see you tomorrow. Bring your questions, we're just getting warmed up!"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 29, 2010, 11:52:18 AM
turboguy:
Quote
Gold is just a lump of metal like lead and iron.

You seem to lack understanding why gold is usefull, and it is the defacto "barter" material.

Or are you going to walk around with a sheep/chicken in your wallet when bartering?

Gold cannot be cheaply printed like paper money, THAT!!!!!  is the  ONLY reason why it cannot be ABUSED by governments who are likely to just outright print money (expanding the M1,M2 and M3) to pay for their programs to get votes.

Now with a gold (or other asset) backed currency (like the USD used to be)...if a government inserts , say, 1 billion into the economy, ..somewhere ,..there has to be 1 billion in gold in a vault to back it up....  

Your savings cannot be raped by government trying Zimbabwenomics for a warfare or welfare state...


Update:  Actually their was a time where a 100% fiat currency did work this was in the Colonies (before the American revolution). Its name was "Colonial script".  Infact the sole reason for the American civil war (according to Thomas Jefferson letters) was the fact that King George  demanded the use of Gold and Silver as legal tender outlawing the use of this fiat Colonial currency. And because the liquidity was not sufficient for the Colonies it resulted in immediate economic stagnation.


A gold backed currency is the only way to prevent government to create inflationary sinkholes (realestate prices out of control) which absorb this fake wealth.

turboguy
Quote
It won't provide money to loan like putting money in the bank.

Mindboggling how you can say this, but please understand

1)  that for every 20 dollar o fiat money, you lend (to buy a house or to invest in bizz) only ONE (that is 1!!!!!) comes from savings the rest is printed. In Europe (ECB) this ratio is 1:30.

We call this scam "the fractional reserve banking system".

2) Gold/Silver IS money, NOT  the impersonation(=paper) of money. Hence in a normal economy it is used to pay bills, or any other thing you might use it for.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 29, 2010, 01:34:04 PM
Jean, as before it is worth knowing a little history before making posts. ;)
1) estimates suggest that the total weight of all gold ever produced is around 158,000 tons. This is equivalent to an allotment of just under 24g of gold per person on the planet, assuming no gold is used for any purpose other than as a carrier of value. Clearly such a small amount of gold is impractical for use as currency.
2) just because a currency is made of gold does not stop its debasement, in fact, as your history would tell you one reason for moving to paper currency was to stop the debasement of currency by both individuals and governments. (look up coin debasement and clipping) Unless you and I have the means to easily determine both weight and purity AND have a fixed and agreed value in exchange for other carriers of value and goods then we arenowhere. Paper currency is really rather good in this respect.

Gold was OK as a carrier/store of value in former times because there were very few people who actually used money and our economies were much smaller. Gold's rarity was then a benefit.

Gold is NOT typically used in barter. Gold is a store or carrier of value not an item of value in itself. Until modern times the only use for gold was in jewelry and jewelry is in no small part merely an expression of the portable storage of value. There are reasons why gold and diamonds are prized as jewelry. ;) Many cultures still, explicitly, use gold as jewelry AND as a store of value. One can buy a gold bangle as a gift and then resell it for cash and buy stuff. We do not chop the bangle into bits and buy stuff, it is not practical.

There ARE benefits to having a currency backed by gold but you should not make the mistake of thinking that this is the same as carrying around gold.

problem is that our modern society is founded and run on the principals of fractional reserve banking and gold is no good for this system. If you wanna be as poor as your great, great, randfather then have a fully backed curency and no fractional reserves. Fractional reserve banking only works with paper currency.

While there are many ideas as to why the US civil war started it'd be true to say that the British government wanted to maintain its monopoly on money (currency) production and that 'imposter' currencies at the time, as always happens made it impossible for the government to buy and sell services and goods and to tax where necessary to pay for running the government. To be honest, I may not like how governments might spend my tax payments BUT I am not so daft as to think that having competing currencies within a jurisdiction could, in the long term, be anything but harmful to everyone. Colonial script was a protest movement much as more recent currency alternatives have been.

You have misunderstood the issues faced by the US and much of the rest of the world. What has happened has been a series of market interventions which have unbalanced money flows and made it 'sensible' to invest in assets that were not truly market viable. Having gold as currency or even having a gold backed currency would not stop these market distortions. If interest rates had not been made artificially low for real estate investors then RE prices would not have risen. Money would have flowed into 'better' assets, perhaps manufacturing assets which in the US have been depleted by offshoring because the distorted market made it apparently cheaper to manufacture in China than in the US.

Please do some proper reading about fractional reserve banking. If you do you will come to understand that in an unfettered market the increase in money in circulation becomes a reflection of increased productivity. What has happened due to government/central bank interference is an incentive to invest in nonproductive asset classes and thus inflation. There is nothing at all wrong with FRB, it is the reason that you get to live until you are nearly 80, it is why you own your own home, have a car, TV, vacations, decent food and a job. If all that was available to you to spend was your 23g of gold then your life would be terribly unpleasant and short.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 29, 2010, 05:57:42 PM
Quote
Jean, as before it is worth knowing a little history before making posts.

I see you have an economics degree from the central bank of Zimbabwe, Mine is from the "Universities of Aix-Marseille" Masters in mathematics with a postdoc in economics. I work at ING bank calculating the convenience yield for oil and other (non degradable assets) and commodities in the city of Nice.

Its funny how you think I am the layman but maybe you could pickup a good freshmen course on the history of banking and Money. But i know people would rather be lazy and shout their mouth off instead of reading a 875+ page scientific work describing past and present FACTUAL banking laws ( and their subversion, aka the  subsequent removal of checks and balances that led to this crisis.) But i will give you my old course name anyway:

Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles
pdf alert-> http://mises.org/store/Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles-P290.aspx
Jesús Huerta de Soto, professor of economics at the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, has made history with this mammoth and exciting treatise that it has and can again, without inflation, without business cycles, and without the economic instability that has characterized the age of government control

So we all did have an economy without manufactured "pump" and "dump" cycles? Well well, ( No andrew that was not in the middle ages, but early 20Th century.

Quote
1) estimates suggest that the total weight of all gold ever produced is around 158,000 tons. This is equivalent to an allotment of just under 24g of gold per person on the planet, assuming no gold is used for any purpose other than as a carrier of value. Clearly such a small amount of gold is impractical for use as currency.

Nonsense, Not a rational statement but an emotional one,   what would be enough?  1 KG per person?, 500gr?, 1.5gr? And why do you 'feel' 24gr is not enough? or  any arbitrary number?  You big toe twinkled?

An old 1920's US dollar states "Redeemable in Gold" how much grams of gold would that have bought back then? hardly  24grams. The current dollar states "Legal tender". If the thugs of government would NOT demand payment in taxes (Note: this is not an argument against taxes perse, but your brain will delete this sentence anyway) , the fiat currency would be worthless.

The SOLE reason why fiat money has worth, is because goverment demands the payment in taxes in said currency-> http://en.wiped.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Silver has massive liquidity, so has  copper, etc. and both of them was used for pennies and single dollars coins.

Quote
Gold was OK as a carrier/store of value in former times because there were very few people who actually used money and our economies were much smaller. Gold's rarity was then a benefit.

How is making stuff up, even rational? Maybe it sounds right emotionally to you, but is it the same as being factual? Where is the discipline of being rational? What are "former" times anyway? Nixon left the last remnants of the gold standard in the 1970's. (There was price - fixing of gold, but still limited the abuse of the currency by government). Since leaving the gold standard  then there has been a hockystick like inflation of the USD.

Quote
Gold is NOT typically used in barter.

Ah, so you also work in the financial sector? What bank is that may i ask? Gold is THE MOST bartered asset used in financial transactions (although it changes ownership, it hardly ever leaves the vault), just like silver, other rare earth metals.  Oil, Iron (metric tons), copper (metric tons) are also used but that is different, these have a  convenience yield.

Guess this is the first time you hear the word "convenience yield" (dont lie) so here->http://en.wiped.org/wiki/Convenience_yield

Quote
There ARE benefits to having a currency backed by gold but you should not make the mistake of thinking that this is the same as carrying around gold.

Could you not read my post at 500km/h,.., you are missing some words i wrote! I hate repeating myself.  Gold IS the value, because the free market has determined this to be so!!!

End of story

Quote
Please do some proper reading about fractional reserve banking.

Mugabenomi cs is wrong; because its stealing. Free market is good, because it is based on the free choice of humans, instead of state coercion.

But here are some chapters you to upgrade your knowledge.

Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles

Basics:
Chapter 1: The Legal Nature of the Monetary Irregular-Deposit Contract
Chapter 2: Historical Violations of the Legal Principles-> Legal Principles Governing the Monetary Irregular-Deposit Contract

The scam:
Chapter 3: Attempts to Legally Justify Fractional-Reserve Banking
..§2Why it is Impossible to Equate the Irregular Deposit with the Loan or Mutuum Contract
..§3The Roots of the Confusion
..§4The Mistaken Doctrine of Common Law

effects of stealing, via inflation
Chapter 5: Bank Credit Expansion and Its Effects on the Economic System

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 29, 2010, 06:56:57 PM
Quote
Please do some proper reading about fractional reserve banking. If you do you will come to understand that in an unfettered market the increase in money in circulation becomes a reflection of increased productivity.

Interventionism is communism, and what business do you have interfering on how i get my salary payed, anyway?

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 29, 2010, 07:09:45 PM

Update:  Actually their was a time where a 100% fiat currency did work this was in the Colonies (before the American revolution). Its name was "Colonial script".  Infact the sole reason for the American civil war (according to Thomas Jefferson letters) was the fact that King George  demanded the use of Gold and Silver as legal tender outlawing the use of this fiat Colonial currency. And because the liquidity was not sufficient for the Colonies it resulted in immediate economic stagnation.


A gold backed currency is the only way to prevent government to create inflationary sinkholes (realestate prices out of control) which absorb this fake wealth.


I agree with a lot of what you are saying and some of Andrew's

Here's a link to the history of the fiat Colonial currency and how it's failure led to a silver and gold backed currency as spelled out in the constitution.

http://www.founderspatriots.org/articles/continental.htm



(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/leebank.jpg)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 29, 2010, 07:19:23 PM
Quote
Here's a link to the history of the fiat Colonial currency and how it's failure led to a silver and gold backed currency as spelled out in the constitution.

Hi Maxx, i could not give an entire discourse in economics so i had to scim the surface to make a point, but indeed eventually all fiat currencies will fail because there is to great of a moral hazard for government to run the printing press. Just look at the first German central bank right after WWII its started out with an extremely strict monetary policy, but that eventually waned a bit.

I believe the tally system (the tally stick) is the only "fiat currency" that was successfully applied for 400 years approx

@Maxx
Quote
And because the liquidity was not sufficient for the Colonies it resulted in immediate economic stagnation.

I like to correct my sentence a little to make the intent more clear

Quote
And because the liquidity of gold and silver was not sufficient for the Colonies it resulted in immediate economic stagnation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on March 29, 2010, 07:24:13 PM
Just look at the first German central bank right after WWII its started out with an extremely strict monetary policy, but that eventually waned a bit. 
 

I believe you mean WW I right?

Saddled with the war debt of the victorious nations, turning on the printing press was the only option available to the Weimar Government. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 29, 2010, 07:33:58 PM
Quote
I believe you mean WW I right?

I mean WWII,  the precursor to the Deutsche Bank (now deceased we have the European Central Bank). Germany was outproducing England in 1953 (just 8 years after the war) because people did not had their wealth stolen by inflation.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 30, 2010, 01:14:07 AM
Andrew is right that when there is white noise everywhere about something, it is about to fall. I noted above that one newsletter I (and Chris and Cufflinks) read was touting gold several years ago. They have a short/medium view. As a long term holding, dripping into gold over time as Shakey suggests is not a bad move. The benefit of dripping into something is that your average buy-in is buffered by differing values over time thus reducing risk of dumping all your chips buying in a speculative bubble.

The economist Robert Beckman said "Cash is king in the downwave" - I think he was right. Collect cash and wait for opportunities. Buy right and sail into the upwave.


The white noise is a combination of salesmen for gold and those in the economic prediction community. They have been accurate in the past predicting the times we are now living in. It is likely IMO that they will be accurate in their assessment of where we are going. However the traditional economists who work for governments and financial institutions that are vested in the fiat system have been dramatically wrong.

Please take the time and watch to two clips below of Peter Schiff and Ben Bernanke.




Who was accurate in their predictions of where our economy was heading? Then ask yourself which one recommends gold and getting out of the dollar.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on March 30, 2010, 03:37:23 AM
Quote
Jean, as before it is worth knowing a little history before making posts.

I see you have an economics degree from the central bank of Zimbabwe, Mine is from the "Universities of Aix-Marseille" Masters in mathematics with a postdoc in economics. I work at ING bank calculating the convenience yield for oil and other (non degradable assets) and commodities in the city of Nice.

Its funny how you think I am the layman but maybe you could pickup a good freshmen course on the history of banking and Money. But i know people would rather be lazy and shout their mouth off instead of reading a 875+ page scientific work describing past and present FACTUAL banking laws ( and their subversion, aka the  subsequent removal of checks and balances that led to this crisis.) But i will give you my old course name anyway:

Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles
pdf alert-> http://mises.org/store/Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles-P290.aspx
Jesús Huerta de Soto, professor of economics at the Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, has made history with this mammoth and exciting treatise that it has and can again, without inflation, without business cycles, and without the economic instability that has characterized the age of government control

So we all did have an economy without manufactured "pump" and "dump" cycles? Well well, ( No andrew that was not in the middle ages, but early 20Th century.

Quote
1) estimates suggest that the total weight of all gold ever produced is around 158,000 tons. This is equivalent to an allotment of just under 24g of gold per person on the planet, assuming no gold is used for any purpose other than as a carrier of value. Clearly such a small amount of gold is impractical for use as currency.

Nonsense, Not a rational statement but an emotional one,   what would be enough?  1 KG per person?, 500gr?, 1.5gr? And why do you 'feel' 24gr is not enough? or  any arbitrary number?  You big toe twinkled?

An old 1920's US dollar states "Redeemable in Gold" how much grams of gold would that have bought back then? hardly  24grams. The current dollar states "Legal tender". If the thugs of government would NOT demand payment in taxes (Note: this is not an argument against taxes perse, but your brain will delete this sentence anyway) , the fiat currency would be worthless.

The SOLE reason why fiat money has worth, is because goverment demands the payment in taxes in said currency-> http://en.wiped.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Silver has massive liquidity, so has  copper, etc. and both of them was used for pennies and single dollars coins.

Quote
Gold was OK as a carrier/store of value in former times because there were very few people who actually used money and our economies were much smaller. Gold's rarity was then a benefit.

How is making stuff up, even rational? Maybe it sounds right emotionally to you, but is it the same as being factual? Where is the discipline of being rational? What are "former" times anyway? Nixon left the last remnants of the gold standard in the 1970's. (There was price - fixing of gold, but still limited the abuse of the currency by government). Since leaving the gold standard  then there has been a hockystick like inflation of the USD.

Quote
Gold is NOT typically used in barter.

Ah, so you also work in the financial sector? What bank is that may i ask? Gold is THE MOST bartered asset used in financial transactions (although it changes ownership, it hardly ever leaves the vault), just like silver, other rare earth metals.  Oil, Iron (metric tons), copper (metric tons) are also used but that is different, these have a  convenience yield.

Guess this is the first time you hear the word "convenience yield" (dont lie) so here->http://en.wiped.org/wiki/Convenience_yield

Quote
There ARE benefits to having a currency backed by gold but you should not make the mistake of thinking that this is the same as carrying around gold.

Could you not read my post at 500km/h,.., you are missing some words i wrote! I hate repeating myself.  Gold IS the value, because the free market has determined this to be so!!!

End of story

Quote
Please do some proper reading about fractional reserve banking.

Mugabenomi cs is wrong; because its stealing. Free market is good, because it is based on the free choice of humans, instead of state coercion.

But here are some chapters you to upgrade your knowledge.

Money-Bank-Credit-and-Economic-Cycles

Basics:
Chapter 1: The Legal Nature of the Monetary Irregular-Deposit Contract
Chapter 2: Historical Violations of the Legal Principles-> Legal Principles Governing the Monetary Irregular-Deposit Contract

The scam:
Chapter 3: Attempts to Legally Justify Fractional-Reserve Banking
..§2Why it is Impossible to Equate the Irregular Deposit with the Loan or Mutuum Contract
..§3The Roots of the Confusion
..§4The Mistaken Doctrine of Common Law

effects of stealing, via inflation
Chapter 5: Bank Credit Expansion and Its Effects on the Economic System


JeanClaude you basically seem to be saying that we should listen to you because you're a real smart, highly educated guy who works in international banking doing financial calculations that most people don't understand? Aren't those the type of bankers that brought about the current global recession?  The current recession that has caused major downsizing at ING?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 30, 2010, 08:06:51 AM
Quote
JeanClaude you basically seem to be saying that we should listen to you because you're a real smart, highly educated guy

I wrote: ....But i know people would rather be lazy and shout their mouth off instead of reading a 875+ page scientific work describing past and present FACTUAL banking laws....

I don't see people as "smart" or "stupid", I see them as "lazy" or "hardworking". I believe everybody has a goodworking engine between the ears, but if you do not fill it up with fuel. The engine is not going to do you much good.

Being ignorant is not cool and ignorance/lying is not a form of "opinion" either.

Liberalism (in all it forms) caters to lazy egos, these egos want an easy "backdoor" it to intellectual standing, just like liberalism caters to people who want an easy backdoor to the middle class . Buying houses and cars they cant afford.

Quote
you're a real smart, highly educated guy who works in international banking doing financial calculations that most people don't understand?

You need mathematical proof that stealing (by inflation) is wrong ?

Quote
Aren't those the type of bankers that brought about the current global recession?

Governments and central banks cause pump and dump cycles, please read the chapters I outlined in the book (you can download it as pdf). Bankers do what they have to do to survive this thievery. They position themselves on the right side of the fence for them (and it is not on the side you are standing).

Quote
The current recession that has caused major downsizing at ING?

Management used it as an excuse to cut away a lot of pork fat tissue (which would have happened anyway if the employees weren't protected by social labor laws).


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 30, 2010, 09:33:58 AM

JeanClaude you basically seem to be saying that we should listen to you because you're a real smart, highly educated guy who works in international banking doing financial calculations that most people don't understand? Aren't those the type of bankers that brought about the current global recession? The current recession that has caused major downsizing at ING?

For the part in bold, you are confusing who was who.

The bankers, noteable the central bankers operate off of the Keynesian economic model. They are Keynesians. Governments love Keynesian economics. It allows them the power of issuance of fiat currency and all the spending that comes with it. Those that predicted all that had happened are of the Austrian school of economics. They believe in limited government and a commodity backed currency. It was Austrians like Peter Schiff, Tom Woods and Ron Paul (a medical doctor and a PHD economist) who predicted accurately years earlier the real estate crash, the flattening of the financial sector and the sudden rise in gold. NONE of these men have been asked by the administrations for their advice and what should be done about the economy. Instead the very people who didn't see it coming and who where running things when the crash occurred are now in charge.

JeanClaude is of the Austrian school I believe. I doubt if Andrew will admit to being on either side but he is a Keynesian. He said he likes the Federal Reserve and what they do.



Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 30, 2010, 10:45:16 AM
Quote
I doubt if Andrew will admit to being on either side but he is a Keynesian.

Andrew is a lot of things, but he is not Keynesian.

Although Keynesians support the utility of a central bank, they never (i repeat never!!!) supported a fractional reserve banking system, sure they give goverment (via the central bank) the power to expand and shrink the money supply, but only (in their point of view) to facilitate the growth (or shrinkage) of the economy. This is not the same as outright rampant printing!
--
Quote
The bankers, noteable the central bankers operate off of the Keynesian economic model. They are Keynesians.

Central bankers are not ignorant:

Greenspan chairman of the federal reserve system:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan
 
Although Greenspan was once recognized as a proponent of laissez-faire capitalism, some Objectivists find his support for a gold standard somewhat incongruous or dubious, given the Federal Reserve's role in America's fiat money system and endogenous inflation. He has come under criticism from Harry Binswanger, who believes his actions while at work for the Federal Reserve and his publicly expressed opinions on other issues show abandonment of Objectivist and free market principles.

Wait a sec, so before Mr Greeny  joined the fed , he was NOT a Keynesian and was fighting the thievery of wealth from the citizenry...hmmm.....but lets continue

.. However, when questioned in relation to this, he has said that in a democratic society individuals have to make compromises with each other over conflicting ideas of how money should be handled.

Yeah right, .."compromises".., ...  
Power corrupts and absolute power.....
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 30, 2010, 11:06:55 AM
@Maxx,

Clarification: Even under the fiat money system one  had (up till 1934 in mainland Europe) the 100% reserve requirement for the "Irregular-Deposit Contract".

So a fiat money system does not automaticly imply a fractional reserve system, although today we have both.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on March 30, 2010, 12:26:16 PM
Quote
JeanClaude you basically seem to be saying that we should listen to you because you're a real smart, highly educated guy

I wrote: ....But i know people would rather be lazy and shout their mouth off instead of reading a 875+ page scientific work describing past and present FACTUAL banking laws....

I don't see people as "smart" or "stupid", I see them as "lazy" or "hardworking". I believe everybody has a goodworking engine between the ears, but if you do not fill it up with fuel. The engine is not going to do you much good.

Being ignorant is not cool and ignorance/lying is not a form of "opinion" either.

Liberalism (in all it forms) caters to lazy egos, these egos want an easy "backdoor" it to intellectual standing, just like liberalism caters to people who want an easy backdoor to the middle class . Buying houses and cars they cant afford.

Quote
you're a real smart, highly educated guy who works in international banking doing financial calculations that most people don't understand?

You need mathematical proof that stealing (by inflation) is wrong ?

Quote
Aren't those the type of bankers that brought about the current global recession?

Governments and central banks cause pump and dump cycles, please read the chapters I outlined in the book (you can download it as pdf). Bankers do what they have to do to survive this thievery. They position themselves on the right side of the fence for them (and it is not on the side you are standing).

Quote
The current recession that has caused major downsizing at ING?

Management used it as an excuse to cut away a lot of pork fat tissue (which would have happened anyway if the employees weren't protected by social labor laws).


JeanClaude I too have a degree in economics and spent 20+ years in banking.  The Austrian School is one of the smaller and less popular schools of thought in economics. Laissez-faire capitalism sounds like a good idea in theory but as we've seen though out the 20th century and earlier money tends to corrupt. 

The savings and loan scandal of the 1980's in the US, the current global recession and subprime mortgages, Enron, Bernard Madoff and many others are simply examples of what happens when government oversight either isn't in place or is not functioning as it should.  I'm know that government bears some responsibility for these and other economic problems but I don't think that giving banks, financial institutions and others an even freer hand in the economy is the answer.  Mater Amschel Rothschild the founder of the Rothschild family international banking dynasty said it best "Give me control of a nations money supply, and I care not who makes it’s laws".

Your point about the layoffs at ING is interesting.  You are all for freer free market capitalism but when it comes to layoffs at the company that you work for you are happy that the government social labour laws were there to prevent layoffs until it was ultimately necessary to secure government bail out money.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 30, 2010, 01:45:07 PM
Quote
JeanClaude I too have a degree in economics and spent 20+ years in banking.

 :bow:  desk-clerc?

(jest)..OK, So you are totally OK with government mandated theft, by changing the legal ownership of the  Monetary Irregular-Deposit Contract?  (at the heart of the matter)

Quote
The Austrian School is one of the smaller and less popular schools of thought in economics.

Of course!! most people (a majority) like Obama,  because he promises them a free ride at the expense of others, and guess what,.., most economics/bankers tend to be just normal people too.

Quote
..Laissez-faire capitalism sounds like a good idea, [but]...

I think Laissez-faire is  a good idea, because I think that stealing is wrong. I am funny that way.

Quote
as we've seen though out the 20th century and earlier money tends to corrupt.

Keeping more of my own hard earned wealth is corrupting me?  :ROFL: I don't think so!

Quote
I'm know that government bears some responsibility

Your economics professor would be OK with a trillion dollar deficit a year and writing blank checks to cover toxic assets funded by the tax paying "Joe the plumber".  

Quote
for these and other economic problems but I don't think that giving banks, financial institutions and others an even freer hand in the economy is the answer.

Rockefeller quote: "..competition is a sin...".

The people hating  Laissez-faire the most are: bankers and established corporations. Your claim that bankers want more freedom is rubbish. Bankers (well not all of them) want more freedom at the expense of others,
We have a name for that , we call it socialism, not  Laissez-faire capitalism.

Quote
You are all for freer free market capitalism but when it comes to layoffs at the company that you work for you are happy that the government social labour laws were there to prevent layoffs

Reread! I was actually in favour of the layoffs. Less pork means the corporation will have more money for people who add value to their business.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on March 30, 2010, 06:32:08 PM
JeanClaude I did a search on Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles  and Jesus Huerta de Soto and found that he has a number of admirers for his work in economics and his book.  I've read several of his interviews and it's plain that he has admirers even in the USA.  

His solutions for this crisis and any future crisis (chapter 9 in his book) is in my opinion impossible to do and no nation on Earth, let alone all nations, will follow his advice.  From an interview he gave to the blog for JohnsonForAmerica.com (link below):

Josiah Schmidt: Does the Federal Reserve deserve thanks for anything it has done over the past few years?

Jesus Huerta de Soto: No. Central banks are the only institutions responsible for the financial crisis and the economic recession.

de Soto seems to be saying that the business world merely took advantage of what the Central bankers were offering and had no obligations for responsible money management on their own.  If this is true why would the same business world be any more responsible with laissez-faire capitalism? Same business world fewer rules, less oversight why wouldn't the same economic crisis happen?  De Soto doesn't say why the business world would be more willing to follow the rules in his world.  

Josiah Schmidt: What should the Fed do, at this point, to help bring this recession to an end?

Jesus Huerta de Soto: Central banks should mimic as close as possible the working of a purely private monetary system based on a 100 per cent reserve pure gold standard: A stable monetary supply (growing no more than 2 per cent per year); non-involvement with interest rates and strong separation of short term commercial banking from investment banking (i.e. reintroduction of a kind of Glass-Steagall act).

A world wide purely private monetary system is never, ever in the wildest dreams of any economist going to happen.  No nation on Earth would ever give up control of it's monetary system to the business world. How would we revert to a 100% reserve pure gold standard now?  The world economy is far, far larger than the current available supply of gold?  

Josiah Schmidt: What would, realistically, happen if we woke up tomorrow morning and the Federal Reserve’s charter had been revoked and the doors of the central bank were closed up?

Jesus Huerta de Soto: The transition to a sound monetary system is explained in detail in Chapter 9 of my book on Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles.

Complete chaos and undoubtedly a situation that would make Zimbabwe look like an economic paradise.  In chapter 9 De Soto quotes Laureano Figuerola y Ballester (1869) "it is necessary to leave “the choice of banking forms to each individual, who will know how to choose the best ones, according to particular circumstances of time and place".  In 1869 this might have been possible but in 2010 most people can't tell which cell phone plan is best for themselves, how would they ever be able to judge which bank is best when the information would undoubtedly be in legal form incomprehensible to anyone other than a lawyer?

Another quote from de Soto in chapter 9 "THE OBLIGATION OF ALL AGENTS IN A FREE-BANKING SYSTEM TO OBSERVE TRADITIONAL LEGAL RULES AND PRINCIPLES, PARTICULARLY A 100-PERCENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT ON DEMAND DEPOSITS".  This didn't work in the past when the economy was based on a gold standard why would it work in de Soto's version?  De Soto doesn't state why in his economic world all agents would abide by "a 100% reserve requirement on demand deposits.

http://garyjohnson2012.wordpress.com/2010/03/22/important-voices-johnsonforamerica-com-interviews-jesus-huerta-de-soto-author-of-money-bank-credit-and-economic-cycles/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on March 30, 2010, 08:16:10 PM

Jesus Huerta de Soto: Central banks should mimic as close as possible the working of a purely private monetary system based on a 100 per cent reserve pure gold standard: A stable monetary supply (growing no more than 2 per cent per year); non-involvement with interest rates and strong separation of short term commercial banking from investment banking (i.e. reintroduction of a kind of Glass-Steagall act).

A world wide purely private monetary system is never, ever in the wildest dreams of any economist going to happen.  No nation on Earth would ever give up control of it's monetary system to the business world. How would we revert to a 100% reserve pure gold standard now?  The world economy is far, far larger than the current available supply of gold?  


Two things. One, the growth of gold supply per year from mining is 2%. Two, the price of the metal would have to be far higher. It is been calculated to cover just the US currency in circulation and in the banks it would have to be $17,000 per ounce. Then there is silver. I haven't got any numbers off the top of my head on that. Figure in other commodities and perhaps land and we might get to something workable.

Quote
Complete chaos and undoubtedly a situation that would make Zimbabwe look like an economic paradise.

I believe this is going to happen. When it does a commodity based currency might be able to be sold to the public. However IMO a tightly controlled economic dictatorship is more likely to happen.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 30, 2010, 10:58:44 PM
what's an economic dictatorship?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on March 30, 2010, 11:17:21 PM

Jesus Huerta de Soto: Central banks should mimic as close as possible the working of a purely private monetary system based on a 100 per cent reserve pure gold standard: A stable monetary supply (growing no more than 2 per cent per year); non-involvement with interest rates and strong separation of short term commercial banking from investment banking (i.e. reintroduction of a kind of Glass-Steagall act).

A world wide purely private monetary system is never, ever in the wildest dreams of any economist going to happen.  No nation on Earth would ever give up control of it's monetary system to the business world. How would we revert to a 100% reserve pure gold standard now?  The world economy is far, far larger than the current available supply of gold?  


Two things. One, the growth of gold supply per year from mining is 2%. Two, the price of the metal would have to be far higher. It is been calculated to cover just the US currency in circulation and in the banks it would have to be $17,000 per ounce. Then there is silver. I haven't got any numbers off the top of my head on that. Figure in other commodities and perhaps land and we might get to something workable.

Quote
Complete chaos and undoubtedly a situation that would make Zimbabwe look like an economic paradise.

I believe this is going to happen. When it does a commodity based currency might be able to be sold to the public. However IMO a tightly controlled economic dictatorship is more likely to happen.

At $17,000/ounce gold for just the US economy and figuring the US economy is about 25% of the world economy that means the price of gold would have to be at least $68,000/ounce.  That would be impractical.  Then what would replace gold for use in industry?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 31, 2010, 09:34:06 AM
Quote
A world wide purely private monetary system is never, ever in the wildest dreams of any economist going to happen.  
WestCoast: "Freedom for common subjects?, bullocks; never going to happen". I guess you would be  the one fighting on the side of King George III during the civil war.

I am not a liberal, I believe in individual freedom, and I am not talking about the "fake" freedom of the neo-cons, who were "first" to expand the money supply like a hockey stick (Bush 2004) or abolish the Gold standard (Nixon 1973).

Quote
No nation on Earth would ever give up control of it's monetary system to the business world.
Most countries on Earth are liberal/socialist or outright tyrannical (Islam,communism)! So what else is new? The reason why people love to move to the US is because its different from the rest.  But the rampant raping of the economy by Keynesian's is changing that.

 Freedom is baaaahd (Berkley "sheople" sound).  If I buy services (from "Ed" for example) who are you to mandate by lethal force (police-glock) how we should NOT trade. A gold backed security or any other currency we freely agree upon.

And yes,...the  economy would revert to the common people (Joe the plumber) where it was and has been before government took it away.

Quote
How would we revert to a 100% reserve pure gold standard now?  The world economy is far, far larger than the current available supply of gold?

You studied 4 years for an economics degree and you just said above sentence? You must be either joking or lying.  Even Keynesian's understand how a gold standard works, although they might not agree with it.

For the layman reading along:

At any time you can fix the USD against an ARBITRARY amount of gold in your national vault, of course a single USD wouldn't buy much gold. Just like a single USD didn't buy much gold when it was still on the gold standard.
But that is not the issue, the issue is that government cannot steal your existing savings through inflation (printing more money). For government to issue more currency they would have to acquire the equivalent value in gold in their vaults. A gold standard serves no other purpose then preventing government to steal your savings through debasing of the currency (rampant printing).

That is the SOLE reason why a gold standard is MANDATED in the US constitution. Preventing government abuse!

Quote
Another quote from de Soto in chapter 9 "THE OBLIGATION OF ALL AGENTS IN A FREE-BANKING SYSTEM TO OBSERVE TRADITIONAL LEGAL RULES AND PRINCIPLES,

Well you obviously disagree, that much is clear,

 I think that  bankers should not steal (aka OBSERVE TRADITIONAL LEGAL RULES AND PRINCIPLES) or risk going to jail.....  I kind of miss the old days!

Quote
PARTICULARLY A 100-PERCENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT ON DEMAND DEPOSITS".

100% reserve requirement, Yeah , if I had a oil storage company and I issued oil-certificates to clients (and charged them for storage) but secretly sold their oil. That would be considered fraud.  

If bankers do the same today,  it is legal!

Quote
in 2010 most people can't tell which cell phone plan is best for themselves, how would they ever be able to judge which bank is best

Absolutely agree, the supermarkets in the USSR had only one brand of soap, one kind of bread, one color of clothing, one type of sneakers.

giving people more choices is bad,( like choosing your own wife). Better let government make the choices for us.

PS, Say hi to Micheal More next time he visits!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 31, 2010, 10:16:18 AM
I grow dill, parsley and basil in my yard...am I in trouble?  :(
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 31, 2010, 10:36:29 AM
I grow dill, parsley and basil in my yard...am I in trouble?  :(

I am not Joking Ed, some people got their backyard tomato planting destroyed by government because it violated interstate commerce laws.

They were unfairly competing with tomatoplanters in other states!

http://naissucks.com/wordpress/?tag=840-tags

If you grow tomatoes, you won’t be buying them, so if you don’t buy them, and since the store bought tomatoes likely cross state lines in their movement, you are affecting interstate commerce by growing tomatoes….This is precedent, and it is a very, very dangerous precedent.



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Boris on April 02, 2010, 06:39:17 AM
I grow dill, parsley and basil in my yard...am I in trouble?  :(

Don't worry, Ed. Your little garden will be OK. I don't think I would be relying on Doreen for advice on the Interstate Commerce Act and gardening.  :ROFL: I really like the dialog between Claude and Moby. Is this how the Guerre de Cent Ans started?

I have been reading some of Gorky Guy's old posts. Is it possible that Andrew was/is Gorky Guy?  :laugh: Is it possible that Moby has Multiple Personality Disorder? Are Jean Claude and Moby the same person engaged in a never ending argument involving multiple page bending quotes? My English friends tell me that there isn't much difference between a "Paddy" and a "Frog" anyway so I guess it is possible.  :chuckle:

Moby, I apologize to you in advance if you and Jean Claude are, in fact, two different personages.  :hidechair:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 02, 2010, 09:52:31 PM
News from Peter Schiff's video blog today (April 2nd) - our socialist Marxist government just slipped in a currency control rider in the new "Jobs" bill - seems they want Euro and Swiss banks to deduct and forward 33% of each USA account holders funds on any withdrawals overseas???

Can't make this up:

http://www.europac.net/videoblog.asp?a=watch
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 02, 2010, 11:13:09 PM
News from Peter Schiff's video blog today (April 2nd) - our socialist Marxist government just slipped in a currency control rider in the new "Jobs" bill - seems they want Euro and Swiss banks to deduct and forward 33% of each USA account holders funds on any withdrawals overseas???

Can't make this up:

http://www.europac.net/videoblog.asp?a=watch

Unfortunately Peter Schiff misread the bill.  What the bill says is:
     These new reporting obligations for financial institutions will be enforced
        through the imposition of a 30-percent U.S. withholding tax on a wide
        range of U.S. payments to foreign financial institutions that do not satisfy
        the reporting obligations.


This means that the foreign financial institutions must report on US companies and persons who have investments in their institution or the US government will withhold 30% of US government payments to the foreign financial institution.  This is being done for tax compliance by US citizens.  After all Cuffy better the rich US citizens pay their taxes then you have to pay a little extra tax.

Cuffy if someone opens an account in Switzerland, the bank will not withhold any of the funds that they withdraw and send the funds to the US government, but they will report all the activity of the account to the US government.     

http://business.cch.com/briefings/jobsbill.pdf  on 1st page

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/business/28gret.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 03, 2010, 07:28:01 AM
WestCoast:
Quote
After all Cuffy better the rich US citizens pay their taxes


Grace Commision Report:

100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their Government.

Mr "economist",  :ROFL: :ROFL: your taxes aren't paying for shit,

Ron Paul said it best
   "The Chinese are our masters now"




 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 03, 2010, 07:38:11 AM
I grow dill, parsley and basil in my yard...am I in trouble?  :(

Don't worry, Ed. Your little garden will be OK. I don't think I would be relying on Doreen for advice on the Interstate Commerce Act and gardening.  :ROFL: I really like the dialog between Claude and Moby. Is this how the Guerre de Cent Ans started?

I have been reading some of Gorky Guy's old posts. Is it possible that Andrew was/is Gorky Guy?  :laugh: Is it possible that Moby has Multiple Personality Disorder? Are Jean Claude and Moby the same person engaged in a never ending argument involving multiple page bending quotes? My English friends tell me that there isn't much difference between a "Paddy" and a "Frog" anyway so I guess it is possible.  :chuckle:

Moby, I apologize to you in advance if you and Jean Claude are, in fact, two different personages.  :hidechair:

Eeeh, Moby only posted once in this thread (somewhere in the beginning), i think you are a bit lost.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 03, 2010, 09:48:28 AM
Quote
Under the program, foreign financial institutions
voluntarily report income earned and taxes withheld on
U.S.-source income, providing some assurance that taxes on
U.S.-source income sent offshore are properly withheld and
that income is properly reported. Foreign financial institutions
that are part of the QI program assume responsibility
for ensuring the proper imposition of the U.S. withholding
tax with respect to the foreign persons that hold accounts
with those institutions. This means that the foreign
financial institution agrees to collect identifying documentation
from its customers, withhold U.S tax based on that
documentation, and deposit the withheld tax with the IRS.

It also agrees to submit to periodic audits performed by
external auditors supervised by IRS examiners.

And with this American's living abroad will become the pariahs of the world's banks and financial institutions. Who will want to go through this hassle? Who will want their business?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 03, 2010, 10:29:40 AM
Quote
Under the program, foreign financial institutions
voluntarily report income earned and taxes withheld on
U.S.-source income, providing some assurance that taxes on
U.S.-source income sent offshore are properly withheld and
that income is properly reported. ..
..SNIP..
with those institutions. This means that the foreign
financial institution agrees to collect identifying documentation
from its customers, withhold U.S tax based on that
documentation, and deposit the withheld tax with the IRS.

It also agrees to submit to periodic audits performed by
external auditors supervised by IRS examiners.

And with this American's living abroad will become the pariahs of the world's banks and financial institutions. Who will want to go through this hassle? Who will want their business?

MAxx, what do you think about these people? http://www.offshore-professional.com/en/offshore.html

Especially the nominee service through a laywer
 http://www.offshore-professional.com/en/company/seychelles-company.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 03, 2010, 11:51:05 AM
Looks like the IRS now wants to be the International Revenue Service.

Westy I would not gloat safe up there in commodities rich Canada - as soon as the US Dollar dies its natural fiat currency death which is now fairly inevitable - the replacement currency the Amero which will be the currency of choice in all the New World - including in Canabisidia - you will then be subject to further "harmonized" international revenue laws to be shared with your Ottowa overseers.  

In other words what happens here will soon follow both North and South, we have to do something to recapture all of the untaxed Canadian spice and Mexican herbal and Coca profits! :8)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 03, 2010, 11:57:00 AM
WestCoast:
Quote
After all Cuffy better the rich US citizens pay their taxes


Grace Commision Report:

100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their Government.

Mr "economist",  :ROFL: :ROFL: your taxes aren't paying for shit,

Ron Paul said it best
   "The Chinese are our masters now"



JeanClaude like you I'm NOT American and I speak Chinese already so I'm ready for when the Chinese take over the world. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 03, 2010, 12:00:55 PM
Looks like the IRS now wants to be the International Revenue Service.

Westy I would not gloat safe up there in commodities rich Canada - as soon as the US Dollar dies its natural fiat currency death which is now fairly inevitable - the replacement currency the Amero which will be the currency of choice in all the New World - including in Canabisidia - you will then be subject to further "harmonized" international revenue laws to be shared with your Ottowa overseers.  

In other words what happens here will soon follow both North and South, we have to do something to recapture all of the untaxed Canadian spice and Mexican herbal and Coca profits! :8)

Cuffy I'm not gloating I pretty much agree.  I also agree that if a way could be found to do that the federal governments in the US and Canada should tax the drug trade.  Of course the feds would then go on another spending spree and spend that money too.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 03, 2010, 12:08:42 PM

MAxx, what do you think about these people? http://www.offshore-professional.com/en/offshore.html

Especially the nominee service through a laywer
 http://www.offshore-professional.com/en/company/seychelles-company.html

 A company that is suggesting to do something illegal might also try and pull a scam on their clients. I would also suspect they are under a lot of scrutiny by people we would just as soon not want to notice us.


I am not sure they are the same folks or not.
http://www.isla-offshore.com/second-passport/second-citizenship-fraud/
Quote
Some of them are 100% fraudulent, some offer no longer existing citizenship programs along with the twice higher prices for the existing ones, some appear on the list of public advisories as not authorized to deal with citizenship, some try to sell documents that lead people to troubles once used or appear useless at best and received a good portion of negative feedback from their customers. Should you come for our advice, below are the companies that we do not recommend you to deal with.

Second Citizenship Providers Blacklist

South American Citizenship Program (www.gosacp.com)
Crown Associates, Crown Law Firm (www.crownpassport.com)
Felice Consulting Group (www.felicegroup.com, inactive)
Shustak Morris & Heller Inc. (www.new-citizenship.com)
Gerald Associates (www.geraldassociates.com)
Goldstein Associate (www.goldsteinassociate.com)
Greenway (www.valeho.com)
P&L Group Inc. (www.plgroup-eu.com)
Ashbridge Consulting Limited (www.ashbridge-consulting.com, inactive)
Goldstein Associates (www.goldstein-lawyers.com)
Right Way (www.right-way.net)
Coldwell Diplomatic Consultants (www.diplomaticsecondpassports.com, inactive)
Viza.cc (www.viza.cc, inactive)
D & T Group (www.second-passport-citizenship.com)
First Business Group (www.firstbusinessgroup.com)
EuroHome (www.euhome.info)
Immigration Club (www.immigration-club.info)
KLP Trade Company (www.europassport.org)
General Council of Diplomacy (www.generalcouncil.info)
International Privacy Consultants (www.diplomaticsecondpassport.com)
Baywest International Ltd., Baywest Group (www.secondpassportsolutions.com, inactive)
Second Passport Solutions (your-second-passport.com, 2nd-passports.net, inactive)
Privacy Solutions (second-passports.net)
2nd Passport Consultants (www.diplomaticsecondpassport.ws)
2nd Citizenship Ltd. (www.2ndcitizenship.eu)
Inc Seychelles & Alda Immigration (www.incseychelles.com)
Seymore Associates (visafreetravel.com)
We keep this list updated. Your comments and new information are very welcome. If you have any evidence of fraud as to the second citizenship, please let us know and we will put it on the list.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 03, 2010, 12:12:43 PM

Cuffy I'm not gloating I pretty much agree.  I also agree that if a way could be found to do that the federal governments in the US and Canada should tax the drug trade.  Of course the feds would then go on another spending spree and spend that money too.  :laugh:

That would be easy. All they would have to do is tax the CIA on their black budget.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 04, 2010, 08:40:12 AM

Saturday, April 03, 2010


158,000 Personal Bankruptcies In March, 75% of them Chapter 7


Those looking for economic bright spots will not find it in foreclosures or bankruptcies. Please consider Sharp Increase in March in Personal Bankruptcies from the New York Times.

Federal courts reported over 158,000 bankruptcy filings in March, or 6,900 a day, a rise of 35 percent from February, according to a report to be released on Friday by Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, a data collection company known as Aacer. Filings were up 19 percent over March 2009. The previous record over the last five years was 133,000 in October.

“Even with the restrictive new law, we’re back up over where we were before the law changed,” Mike Bickford, president of Aacer, said in a phone interview Thursday from his headquarters in Oklahoma City.

Other experts point out that filings invoking Chapter 7 of the bankruptcy code, a simple and inexpensive option, are rising faster than more complex Chapter 13 reorganization filings, under which consumers repay a portion of their debts so they can keep their homes, suggesting that more homeowners are simply walking away from underwater mortgages.

Statistics from the United States Trustee Program, the Justice Department office that oversees bankruptcy cases, show that Chapter 7 filings as a percentage of all bankruptcies have increased to about 73 percent in 2009 from about 62 percent in 2006-07. Of the 158,141 bankruptcy filings in March, 118,505, or 75 percent, were Chapter 7s and 38,241 were Chapter 13s, the Aacer report says.
The Debt Slave Act of 2005 (better known Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005) continues to make complete fools out of its sponsors. After the bill passed, banks made very poor loans figuring people would be forced into chapter 13 and would have to pay the loans back some way somehow.

Well, people without a job cannot restructure anything, nor would they want to if they could, because most of them are hugely underwater in houses.

Banks got everything they wanted in the bill. It is fitting it blew up in their faces.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 04, 2010, 12:39:05 PM
Silver Short Squeeze Could Be Imminent
 
On December 11th, 2009 NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade. In our December 11th article, we said that it wasn't a coincidence that the very day Bear Stearns failed was the same day silver reached its multi-decade high of over $21 per ounce. We went on to say, "The reason why we believe the Federal Reserve was so eager to orchestrate a bailout of Bear Stearns, is because Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their silver short position."
 
JP Morgan took over the concentrated short position in silver from Bear Stearns and gained complete control over the paper price of silver. Within weeks, JP Morgan was able to manipulate the price of silver down to below $9 per ounce. NIA believes they were able to drive the price of silver down through "naked short selling", selling paper silver that is unbacked by physical silver.
 
On February 5th, we witnessed another sharp decline in silver prices, which NIA described on February 7th as being "just a temporary wash out, before a huge surge in silver prices later in 2010". Since then, silver prices have rebounded by 18%. The temporary wash out that occurred on February 5th was predicted by independent metals trader Andrew Maguire, who came out this week exposing the fraud that is taking place in the paper silver market.
 
On February 3rd, Andrew Maguire wrote Eliud Ramirez, a senior investigator for the CFTC's Enforcement Division, giving him the "heads up" for a "manipulative event" signaled for February 5th. He warned the CFTC that JP Morgan was about to manipulate down the price of silver after the release of non-farm payroll data on February 5th. Andrew said that the takedown would happen regardless of if employment was better or worse than expected and the price of silver would be flushed to below $15 per ounce. During the next couple of days, silver was crushed from $16.17 per ounce down to a low of $14.62 per ounce.
 
Despite all of the evidence given by Andrew Maguire to the CFTC of gold and silver manipulation, Andrew wasn't allowed to speak at last week's CFTC hearing on limiting gold and silver positions held by banks like JP Morgan. Bill Murphy of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) was allowed to speak (within a five-minute time constraint) and present some of Andrew Maguire's evidence, but right when his presentation began there was a technical failure of the live television broadcast, which was mysteriously fixed as soon as he was done speaking. Bill Murphy was scheduled for several mainstream media television interviews after the CFTC hearings, but they were all abruptly cancelled at once.
 
A couple of days after the CFTC meeting, Andrew Maguire and his wife were involved in a bizarre hit-and-run car accident in London where a second car coming out of a side street struck their vehicle, which resulted in a police chase using helicopters and patrol cars before the suspect was nabbed. Andrew and his wife were released from the hospital with minor injuries. (NIA does not believe in conspiracy theories but when you consider that this is a potential multi-trillion dollar fraud that could bring down the world's financial system, it really makes you think.)
 
The silver market provides a window into what is happening in the gold market. Because the silver market is very small and its short position is so concentrated, its price is easier to manipulate than gold, but the same manipulation is taking place in gold on a much larger but less noticeable scale. In our opinion, the CFTC is under pressure not to do anything about the manipulation because the lower gold and silver prices are, the stronger the U.S. dollar appears to be. If we saw an explosion to the upside in gold and silver prices, it would result in a complete loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
 
NIA believes the precious metals markets are currently being artificially suppressed by paper gold and silver that doesn't physically exist. At last week's CFTC hearings, Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group admitted that banks have leveraged their physical bullion by 100 to 1. This means for every 100 ounces of paper gold/silver that trade, there could be as little as 1 ounce of physical gold/silver in the vaults backing it. However, Mr. Christian sees no problem with this because he says "it has been persistently that way for decades" and there are "any number of mechanisms allowing for cash settlements".
 
What Mr. Christian fails to realize is, most investors around the world holding paper gold/silver believe they own physical gold/silver. There will come a time when these investors don't want cash settlements in U.S. dollars, but they will want the physical precious metals themselves. When investors around the globe eventually call for physical delivery of their precious metals, NIA believes it will result in the biggest short squeeze in the history of all commodities.
 
The physical silver market is now more tight than ever before. In the first quarter of 2010, the U.S. mint sold 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles, the most since the coin debuted in 1986 and up from 8,299,000 sold in the fourth quarter of 2009. All U.S. silver mines combined are currently producing only 40 million ounces of silver annually. This means the U.S. needs to use almost all of its silver production just to keep up with the demand for American Silver Eagle coins.
 
Silver closed this week at a 10-week high of $17.89 per ounce and a major short squeeze to the upside could be imminent. With the spotlight now on JP Morgan, NIA believes they will be less likely to naked short silver at these levels and manipulate the price down like in February. With the mainstream media blackout, it is important for NIA members to work harder than ever to spread the word and help expose what could be the largest fraud in the history of the world.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 04, 2010, 01:26:55 PM
good article, Mike!
I knew something wasn't right when the price of gold and silver dipped in the beginning of 2010. The prices of basic staples - have gone up a lot. Vegetables are 20 to a 100% (tomatos are now $3.50 to $4.00 per lb in a supermarket!! ) more expensive than they were just 3 months ago which would indicate dollar loosing it's value which in turn would indicate the price of gold and silver going up.
I'm not an economics or a finance pro like some of you guys, but my gut feeleng tells me to keep my money in gold and silver for a year or two, then maybe put a portion if it into real estate. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 04, 2010, 05:09:02 PM
Quote
my gut feeleng tells me to keep my money in gold and silver for a year or two, then maybe put a portion if it into real estate.

Go with your gut!

@cufflinks,

You got a link to that article?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 04, 2010, 05:20:47 PM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 04, 2010, 05:29:00 PM
WestCoast:
Quote
After all Cuffy better the rich US citizens pay their taxes


Grace Commision Report:

100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their Government.

Mr "economist",  :ROFL: :ROFL: your taxes aren't paying for shit,

Ron Paul said it best
   "The Chinese are our masters now"



JeanClaude like you I'm NOT American and I speak Chinese already so I'm ready for when the Chinese take over the world. 

Does Micheal Moore like tea or coffee?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 04, 2010, 05:40:17 PM

You got a link to that article?

http://research.tdameritrade.com/public/markets/news/story.asp?docKey=100-093p6575-1&clauses=
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 04, 2010, 06:06:34 PM
good article, Mike!
I knew something wasn't right when the price of gold and silver dipped in the beginning of 2010. The prices of basic staples - have gone up a lot. Vegetables are 20 to a 100% (tomatos are now $3.50 to $4.00 per lb in a supermarket!! ) more expensive than they were just 3 months ago which would indicate dollar loosing it's value which in turn would indicate the price of gold and silver going up.
I'm not an economics or a finance pro like some of you guys, but my gut feeleng tells me to keep my money in gold and silver for a year or two, then maybe put a portion if it into real estate. 

Found this from a website run by a woman that just returned to the US after 5 years in Ecuador

Quote
So this trip, I can only speak about what’s changed in NY. For one thing…the price of virtually everything has doubled in the 5 years I’ve been away…literally doubled. $5 for a Sunday Times? $8 for an order of onion rings? $85 for a Knickerbockers T-Bone for 2 that used to be $40? How anyone affords taxis in the city anymore is a mystery.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 04, 2010, 06:25:54 PM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.



Isnt this illegal?

How about actually owning gold in a vault (preferably Switzerland as FDR outlawed gold ownership in 1932).

http://www.bullionvault.com/?gclid=CP-n1syl7qACFUKZ2AodMUHlNw
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 04, 2010, 06:37:56 PM
Quote
So this trip, I can only speak about what’s changed in NY. For one thing…the price of virtually everything has doubled in the 5 years I’ve been away…literally doubled. $5 for a Sunday Times? $8 for an order of onion rings? $85 for a Knickerbockers T-Bone for 2 that used to be $40? How anyone affords taxis in the city anymore is a mystery.

I remember in those Italian lire days, i payd 5000 lire for a cup of coffee.

 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

PS, what happened to StarBucks?
http://piggington.com/starbucks_is_going_to_file_bankruptcy
Quote
Starbucks just announc€ed they are stopping 401K contributions and
cutting 7000 employees.
  :o :o Oops
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 04, 2010, 06:57:24 PM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.



If JP Morgan is involved I wouldn't be surprised.  JP Morgan was involved in manipulating the oil market a couple of years ago when oil hit US$150/barrel.  JP Morgan apparently owns or at the time owned a oil holding facility that was capable of holding millions of barrels of oil.  CBS's 60 Minutes broke the story but JP Morgan wouldn't comment but they also didn't sue so the story must have had some truth.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 04, 2010, 07:09:05 PM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.



Isnt this illegal?

How about actually owning gold in a vault (preferably Switzerland as FDR outlawed gold ownership in 1932).

http://www.bullionvault.com/?gclid=CP-n1syl7qACFUKZ2AodMUHlNw


The limitation on gold ownership in the U.S. was repealed after President Gerald Ford signed a bill legalizing private ownership of gold coins, bars and certificates by an act of Congress codified in Pub.L. 93-373 which went into effect December 31, 1974.

http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/5000-200.html

JC for a trained economist you seem to miss a lot of important events regarding economic markets around the world.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 04, 2010, 07:12:41 PM
Quote
my gut feeleng tells me to keep my money in gold and silver for a year or two, then maybe put a portion if it into real estate.

Go with your gut!

@cufflinks,

You got a link to that article?

Here you go:

http://inflation.us/silvershortsqueeze.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 04, 2010, 07:26:20 PM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.



Just coincidence or an attempt to silence a whistleblower? Andrew Maguire, the whistleblower of the JPMorgan Chase manipulation of the gold and silver markets, and his wife were involved in a car accident in London, England.  After hitting Maguire's car the driver of the other car hit two more cars and then fled.  London police using helicopters and patrol cars chased the hit-and-run driver before nabbing that person, whose name has not been released by authorities.  Maguire and his wife were released from the hospital yesterday.

Would JP Morgan and other companies involved in the precious markets manipulation try to kill a whistleblower to help cover up a multimillion dollar illegal deal?


http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/jpmorgan_chase_story_in_uk_DsMN4PnXFoQG5KdevIsQ7N#ixzz0jZHvERAe
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 04, 2010, 08:21:05 PM
Westcoast:
Quote
The limitation on gold ownership in the U.S. was repealed after President Gerald Ford signed a bill legalizing private ownership of gold coins, bars and certificates by an act of Congress codified in Pub.L. 93-373 which went into effect December 31, 1974.
http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/5000-200.html
So the abolishment of slavery in 1863 is proof that slavery never existed before that?.
Does the 1974 legislation remburs-ed the gold stolen by the fed?

Sorry my brain doesn't do libtardlogic.  If the government can outlaw the possession of gold, it can do so again. I wonder if everybody who was forced to sell his/her gold to the federal reserve, was duly compensated for the theft in 1974. Oh that's right, that never happened.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Executive Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933 all but a small amount gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 per troy ounce. Under the Trading With the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917, as amended on March 9, 1933, violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 ($166,640 if adjusted for inflation as of 2008) or up to ten years in prison, or both.



Quote
JC for a trained economist you seem to miss a lot of important events regarding economic markets around the world.

I was warning people (who are thinking of buying gold) that the US government has set a precedent of outright steeling gold from its citizens. How this warning can be translated in being unknowlegable about the 1974 (almost 40 years later) "legalisation" of gold ownership is only possible in a mind that suffers from libtardlogic.

Besides I am wondering how you could graduate from an education in economics and not even know what a IDC is or how a gold standard works.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 05, 2010, 12:07:23 AM
There is a organization called GATA (Gold Anti Trust Association) that has been exploring this issue of only paper being traded at the COMEX and in London. Apparently there is a whistle blower from Goldman Sachs who recently (March 23rd '10) provided proof that the gold market is being manipulated by JP Morgan and Chase. This is so they could make profits in the short selling of the metal and to suppress the cost of gold.

 

Isnt this illegal?

How about actually owning gold in a vault (preferably Switzerland as FDR outlawed gold ownership in 1932).

http://www.bullionvault.com/?gclid=CP-n1syl7qACFUKZ2AodMUHlNw


Sure is illegal but the crooks have their people working in government. After they do a stint in a government job in treasury or a regulatory position they retire from government and go back to work for their original employer ie Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Chase, Citi Bank, Bank of America etc. Of course at a enormous salary increase with big bonuses etc. All they got to do is play the game and they are set for life. Our banks run the government.

Gold has been legal to own in the US since the 70's. Governments in time of crisis can seize vaults so it is preferable to have it in "physical possession".  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 05, 2010, 12:23:51 AM
Westcoast:
Quote
The limitation on gold ownership in the U.S. was repealed after President Gerald Ford signed a bill legalizing private ownership of gold coins, bars and certificates by an act of Congress codified in Pub.L. 93-373 which went into effect December 31, 1974.
http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/5000-200.html
So the abolishment of slavery in 1863 is proof that slavery never existed before that?.
Does the 1974 legislation remburs-ed the gold stolen by the fed?

Sorry my brain doesn't do libtardlogic.  If the government can outlaw the possession of gold, it can do so again. I wonder if everybody who was forced to sell his/her gold to the federal reserve, was duly compensated for the theft in 1974. Oh that's right, that never happened.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Executive Order 6102 required U.S. citizens to deliver on or before May 1, 1933 all but a small amount gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 per troy ounce. Under the Trading With the Enemy Act of October 6, 1917, as amended on March 9, 1933, violation of the order was punishable by fine up to $10,000 ($166,640 if adjusted for inflation as of 2008) or up to ten years in prison, or both.



Quote
JC for a trained economist you seem to miss a lot of important events regarding economic markets around the world.

I was warning people (who are thinking of buying gold) that the US government has set a precedent of outright steeling gold from its citizens. How this warning can be translated in being unknowlegable about the 1974 (almost 40 years later) "legalisation" of gold ownership is only possible in a mind that suffers from libtardlogic.

Besides I am wondering how you could graduate from an education in economics and not even know what a IDC is or how a gold standard works.

JC perhaps you should do a little more reading before advising people to own gold and hide it in a bank vault in Switzerland.  Even if people did buy gold and place the gold in a vault in Switzerland  they would still have to fill out Treasury Department Form 90-22.1 every year if they own, or have an interest in, any foreign bank accounts this includes gold in a safety deposit box in a bank in Switzerland.  http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=210249,00.html#FA6   :money: :money: :money:  :cop: :cop: :cop:

JC I fully understand how the gold standard works I've read about it extensively and even read the part of Jesus Huerta de Soto's text dealing with it.  What I've never been able to find out is how a country especially one as economically large as the US would return to the gold standard.  De Soto didn't explain it in his text.  US Presidential candidate Ron Paul didn't explain it during his Presidential bid.   Until someone gives a reasonable explanation of how the process would work I'm assuming it's just an intellectual argument.  

JC if people are going to worry about what the government did in the past and think that the government might repeat the legislation perhaps women, non-whites and non property owning white males should worry about losing the vote.  Personally I don't think that you knew that the legislation had been repealed.  Most of what you post is either wrong or not on point.  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 05, 2010, 06:27:57 AM
Quote
JC perhaps you should do a little more reading before advising people to own gold and hide it in a bank vault in Switzerland. Even if people did buy gold and place the gold in a vault in Switzerland  they would still have to fill out Treasury Department Form 90-22.1 every year if they own, or have an interest in, any foreign bank accounts this includes gold in a safety deposit box in a bank in Switzerland.  http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=210249,00.html#FA6

Why are you advising people to not comply with the tax code? BTW tax avoidance is not the same as tax evasion. Trust funds can be set up cheaply (this format is very popular in the medical profession).

Quote
JC I fully understand how the gold standard works I've read about it extensively and even read the part of Jesus Huerta de Soto's text dealing with it.

No you don't! And your next quote is proof of this!
Quote
What I've never been able to find out is how a country especially one as economically large as the US would return to the gold standard.  

On 5 march 1971 the USA went off the gold standard, at that same time the USA had the largest manufacturing base  in the world (not the phony inflated bubble service economy we see now). So accordion to your liberal logic, that could not even be possible.

This is the second time you delete historical fact from your conscience, I am real curious how your brain works!

You avoided many questions I asked on the legal aspects of an IDC, so that alone is proof you never studied economics or banking laws, nor did you explain the LEGAL difference between an IDC and a Mutuum contract.

Quote
JC if people are going to worry about what the government did in the past and think that the government might repeat the legislation perhaps women, non-whites and non property owning white males should worry about losing the vote.

If Americans were crazy enough to vote for a KKK clansman for president nonwhites would have to start worrying about Jim Crow Laws 2.0.

The last 3 presidents where fiscal socialist (Bush=borrow and spend, Obama=tax, borrow,print and spend) Americans have now voted someone for president who is far more socialist then FDR ever was, and is now proposing a tax on savings (wait a minute, didn't people pay income tax already?). The very definition of socialism is (Obama quote) "spreading the wealth around".


Quote
Most of what you post is either wrong or not on point.  

People like you, who think stealing by government is OK, cannot be expected to tell the truth. So i will take your last statement for what it is, ..

        
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Herrie on April 05, 2010, 06:33:53 AM
....
The last 3 presidents where fiscal socialist (Bush=borrow and spend, Obama=tax, borrow,print and spend) Americans have now voted someone for president who is far more socialist then FDR ever was, and is now proposing a tax on savings (wait a minute, didn't people pay income tax already?). The very definition of socialism is (Obama quote) "spreading the wealth around".
JC, guess what we have here already in NL? Yes you pay tax on savings already above X amount. They assume you get a Y% interest rate as well, if you get less you're screwed anyway and you'll lose money....

Another nice tax we have is on inheritance. Can vary between 10% and 40% depending on your relation to the deceased  person....

Time for some change here, I hope the upcoming elections will bring some  :popcorn: I'm fed up paying a lot of taxes for a lot of things but receiving back close to 0 every year for this  >:(

Chances are slim though. Government has to achieve saving of about 5% of the total GDP, which of course they'll try to achieve by cutting on important things like education and of course raising some taxes or costs on health insurance :'( It would be better if they cut a lot of those useless and inefficient government employees ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 05, 2010, 06:43:25 AM
....
The last 3 presidents where fiscal socialist (Bush=borrow and spend, Obama=tax, borrow,print and spend) Americans have now voted someone for president who is far more socialist then FDR ever was, and is now proposing a tax on savings (wait a minute, didn't people pay income tax already?). The very definition of socialism is (Obama quote) "spreading the wealth around".
JC, guess what we have here already in NL? Yes you pay tax on savings already above X amount. They assume you get a Y% interest rate as well, if you get less you're screwed anyway and you'll lose money....

Another nice tax we have is on inheritance. Can vary between 10% and 40% depending on your relation to the deceased  person....

Time for some change here, I hope the upcoming elections will bring some  :popcorn: I'm fed up paying a lot of taxes for a lot of things but receiving back close to 0 every year for this  >:(

The best way to wreck the economy of a cottenpicking slave plantation is...to flee the plantation or not to pick cotton anymore. Switzerland and Liechtenstein look very nice and have a very large high tech manufacturing base.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 05, 2010, 06:47:31 AM
Quote
Chances are slim though. Government has to achieve saving of about 5% of the total GDP, which of course they'll try to achieve by cutting on important things like education and of course raising some taxes or costs on health insurance  It would be better if they cut a lot of those useless and inefficient government employees

I hear Wilders wants to fire 50% of all government employees, how is he doing in the polls?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 05, 2010, 07:42:56 AM
Indeed the public sector is dragging down the private sector. But how do you get the public sector to vote themselves out of jobs? This is why I expect a crash. Tax upon tax to keep things propped up as long as possible and then boom when most everyone is wiped out. The smart thing to do as individuals is to stock up on gold, silver and all those other things and have your holdings in secret as much as possible.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 05, 2010, 09:39:27 AM
http://whitelocust.wordpress.com/2010/02/21/is-this-how-democracy-ends-by-patrick-j-buchanan/

I used to think it would take a great financial crisis to get both parties to the table, but we just had one,”
      William Hoagland, a former adviser to the Senate Republican leadership on fiscal policy.

This week, a smoke detector went off. China, in December, had unloaded $45 billion of its $790 billion in T-bills. Is Beijing is bailing out?

Later this year or early next, to avoid a debt crisis, Obama will ask Congress to raise taxes and pare back entitlement programs. Republicans will fight the taxes to the last ditch. Democrats, having lost dozens of colleagues in the November massacre, will rebel against the cuts in social spending.
And a paralyzed government will drift closer toward the maelstrom.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Herrie on April 05, 2010, 10:31:09 AM
I hear Wilders wants to fire 50% of all government employees, how is he doing in the polls?
Not that well since the Social Democrats/Labour Party (PvdA) decided to chose a Jewish guy as their runner. How ironic, the majority of the Muslims will have to vote for the Jew, since it's the party they usually vote for ;)

But the battle continues, who knows what the outcome will be....
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 05, 2010, 11:22:36 AM
http://whitelocust.wordpress.com/2010/02/21/is-this-how-democracy-ends-by-patrick-j-buchanan/

I used to think it would take a great financial crisis to get both parties to the table, but we just had one,”
      William Hoagland, a former adviser to the Senate Republican leadership on fiscal policy.

This week, a smoke detector went off. China, in December, had unloaded $45 billion of its $790 billion in T-bills. Is Beijing is bailing out?

Later this year or early next, to avoid a debt crisis, Obama will ask Congress to raise taxes and pare back entitlement programs. Republicans will fight the taxes to the last ditch. Democrats, having lost dozens of colleagues in the November massacre, will rebel against the cuts in social spending.
And a paralyzed government will drift closer toward the maelstrom.




That about sums it up. For us frogs in the pot we should make plans to jump out. Thanks for the link.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 05, 2010, 01:47:14 PM
Quote
JC perhaps you should do a little more reading before advising people to own gold and hide it in a bank vault in Switzerland. Even if people did buy gold and place the gold in a vault in Switzerland  they would still have to fill out Treasury Department Form 90-22.1 every year if they own, or have an interest in, any foreign bank accounts this includes gold in a safety deposit box in a bank in Switzerland.  http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=210249,00.html#FA6

Why are you advising people to not comply with the tax code? BTW tax avoidance is not the same as tax evasion. Trust funds can be set up cheaply (this format is very popular in the medical profession).

Quote
JC I fully understand how the gold standard works I've read about it extensively and even read the part of Jesus Huerta de Soto's text dealing with it.

No you don't! And your next quote is proof of this!
Quote
What I've never been able to find out is how a country especially one as economically large as the US would return to the gold standard.  

On 5 march 1971 the USA went off the gold standard, at that same time the USA had the largest manufacturing base  in the world (not the phony inflated bubble service economy we see now). So accordion to your liberal logic, that could not even be possible.

This is the second time you delete historical fact from your conscience, I am real curious how your brain works!

You avoided many questions I asked on the legal aspects of an IDC, so that alone is proof you never studied economics or banking laws, nor did you explain the LEGAL difference between an IDC and a Mutuum contract.

Quote
JC if people are going to worry about what the government did in the past and think that the government might repeat the legislation perhaps women, non-whites and non property owning white males should worry about losing the vote.

If Americans were crazy enough to vote for a KKK clansman for president nonwhites would have to start worrying about Jim Crow Laws 2.0.

The last 3 presidents where fiscal socialist (Bush=borrow and spend, Obama=tax, borrow,print and spend) Americans have now voted someone for president who is far more socialist then FDR ever was, and is now proposing a tax on savings (wait a minute, didn't people pay income tax already?). The very definition of socialism is (Obama quote) "spreading the wealth around".


Quote
Most of what you post is either wrong or not on point.  

People like you, who think stealing by government is OK, cannot be expected to tell the truth. So i will take your last statement for what it is, ..

        

Please JC explain how putting the USA back on the gold standard.  The US still has by far the largest manufacturing base in the world.  Far larger than China or India.     
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 05, 2010, 02:02:34 PM
Quote
Please JC explain how putting the USA back on the gold standard.  The US still has by far the largest manufacturing base in the world.  Far larger than China or India.   

I am not your stooge, i am not going to explain it again for the 10th time.

something else i keep repeating is this question of mine

Quote
You avoided many questions I asked on the legal aspects of an IDC, so that alone is proof you never studied economics or banking laws, nor did you explain the LEGAL difference between an IDC and a Mutuum contract.

Answer?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: LoyalMan on April 05, 2010, 09:48:35 PM
Perhaps, people need new Reserve Thing from now onwards.


What can it be??   :money:  :reading:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 05, 2010, 10:01:23 PM
Quote
Please JC explain how putting the USA back on the gold standard.  The US still has by far the largest manufacturing base in the world.  Far larger than China or India.   

I am not your stooge, i am not going to explain it again for the 10th time.

something else i keep repeating is this question of mine

Quote
You avoided many questions I asked on the legal aspects of an IDC, so that alone is proof you never studied economics or banking laws, nor did you explain the LEGAL difference between an IDC and a Mutuum contract.

Answer?


Too easy.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 06, 2010, 08:00:59 AM
This is the bombshell about the recent happenings in regard to gold and silver manipulation by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

<<WARNING>> if you read it you might start believing in conspiracies  :laugh:

http://www.marketskeptics.com/



Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 06, 2010, 12:18:18 PM
This is the bombshell about the recent happenings in regard to gold and silver manipulation by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

<<WARNING>> if you read it you might start believing in conspiracies  :laugh:

http://www.marketskeptics.com/



Maxx

Apparently this has been going on for years without anything being done.  If you do a Google search on the subject you will find the same type of articles going back to the beginning of the decade.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 06, 2010, 03:18:04 PM
This is the bombshell about the recent happenings in regard to gold and silver manipulation by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

<<WARNING>> if you read it you might start believing in conspiracies  :laugh:

http://www.marketskeptics.com/



Maxx

Apparently this has been going on for years without anything being done.  If you do a Google search on the subject you will find the same type of articles going back to the beginning of the decade.   

The difference is they have been caught red handed.


Will fraud lift gold prices to $10,000/ounce?
Published on: April 03, 2010 at 16:20

By Geena Paul
NEW YORK (Commodity Online): After the sub-prime catastrophe in banking and realty sector, which led to the global recession in 2008-09, it is the turn of bullion markets now.

‘FRAUD’, that is the one word which comes to any investor’s mind when s/he reads about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hearing on manipulations in bullion market by gold cartels.

So, the small and clean investors have been short-changed by big cartels during the past many years, especially during the recent boom time in bullion markets. Otherwise, how will you explain the biggest boom in paper gold (Exchange Traded Funds, ETFs) in the recent past with hardly any gold available in the market.

In fact, there is no gold left in this world if all the Gold ETFs ask for physical delivery. And, if that happens only god knows what will be the gold prices in the coming months — $10000 per ounce? Maybe, even more. Because, price of a commodity which is not available at all can go up to any level due to the sheer fact that it is not there in the market.

Now read about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) hearing last week about a London whistle-blower who had explained to the CFTC how JP Morgan Chase has been manipulating/capping precious metal prices. In a shocking parallel to the inaction by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after receiving warnings from Harry Markopolos about the Madoff ponzi, the CFTC has apparently been sitting on the information on gold cartels.

More: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Will-fraud-lift-gold-prices-to-$10000ounce-27107-3-1.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 06, 2010, 04:34:57 PM
Quote
Too easy.    :laugh:

I wonder how EASY you are going to survive on your retirement when gold gets to be 10.000 an ounce.

USA=Weimar republic part 2.0

Look at all them dollar mark bills,.., tomatos costing 5 bucks a kilo, you aint seen nothing yet!!

(http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/images/nov212008_2.jpg)


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 06, 2010, 06:36:11 PM

The Looting of Main street

 
Love him or hate him, Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi always offers an interesting read. [Dec 11, 2009: Obama's Big Sellout] In this latest article, the man who brought us Goldman Sachs as America's "vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity" (which surely is taken as a badge of honor inside 85 Broad), offers a look at how our financial oligarchs investment banks are creating predatory loans sounds transactions at America's municipal level that benefit themselves at the expense of the taxpayer everyone.

Of course, this is where the investment bank lobbyists and publicists come to the rescue saying, "we are only providing what the cities/states/country ask of us"; a defense similar to that which crack dealers use, but with far more success. Granted, crack dealers are not among politicians' top campaign contributors... it seems when you replace "financial innovative product" with "crack cocaine" somehow the transaction becomes OK.

Or, another favorite:

"Joe in accounting in Muncie, Indiana is a sophisticated investor - cleary this is a 2 sided transaction between 2 equals... Joe and his merry band of accounting clerks and city managers - some of which even have 2 year degrees at the local CC, versus our armies of Harvard MBAs whose only purpose in life is to walk in the door each day & spend 10-12 hours a day thinking how to extract every ounce of monies from our unsuspecting customers errr.... clients."

Clearly a balanced transaction between 2 sophisticated parties... what could ever go wrong? [Feb 25, 2010: Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt they Helped Hide]

P.S. While Taibbi's Goldman piece (some assumptions are a bit over the top) thrust him into the public spotlight, his story in March 2009 entitled "The Big Takeover" is the one people should have been reading.

It's a 6-page article - some snippets via Rolling Stone:

If you want to know what life in the Third World is like, just ask Lisa Pack, an administrative assistant who works in the roads and transportation department in Jefferson County, Alabama. Pack got rudely introduced to life in post-crisis America last August, when word came down that she and 1,000 of her fellow public employees would have to take a little unpaid vacation for a while. The county, it turned out, was more than $5 billion in debt — meaning that courthouses, jails and sheriff's precincts had to be closed so that Wall Street banks could be paid.

As public services in and around Birmingham were stripped to the bone, Pack struggled to support her family on a weekly unemployment check of $260. Nearly a fourth of that went to pay for her health insurance, which the county no longer covered. She also fielded calls from laid-off co-workers who had it even tougher. "I'd be on the phone sometimes until two in the morning," she says. "I had to talk more than one person out of suicide. For some of the men supporting families, it was so hard — foreclosure, bankruptcy. I'd go to bed at night, and I'd be in tears."

The sewer bill, in fact, is what cost Pack and her co-workers their jobs. In 1996, the average monthly sewer bill for a family of four in Birmingham was only $14.71 — but that was before the county decided to build an elaborate new sewer system with the help of out-of-state financial wizards with names like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM).

"Yeah, it (sewer bills) went up about 400 percent just over the past few years," she says.
The result was a monstrous pile of borrowed money that the county used to build, in essence, the world's grandest toilet — "the Taj Mahal of sewer-treatment plants" is how one county worker put it. What happened here in Jefferson County would turn out to be the perfect metaphor for the peculiar alchemy of modern oligarchical capitalism: A mob of corrupt local officials and morally absent financiers got together to build a giant device that converted human sh** into billions of dollars of profit for Wall Street — and misery for people like Lisa Pack

And once the giant sh** machine was built and the note on all that fancy construction started to come due, Wall Street came back to the local politicians and doubled down on the scam. They showed up in droves to help the poor, broke citizens of Jefferson County cut their toilet finance charges using a blizzard of incomprehensible swaps and refinance schemes — schemes that only served to postpone the repayment date a year or two while sinking the county deeper into debt.

In the end, every time Jefferson County so much as breathed near one of the banks, it got charged millions in fees. There was so much money to be made bilking these dizzy Southerners that banks like JP Morgan spent millions paying middlemen who bribed — yes, that's right, bribed, criminally bribed — the county commissioners and their buddies just to keep their business.

Hell, the money was so good, JP Morgan at one point even paid Goldman Sachs $3 million just to back the f*** off, so they could have the rubes of Jefferson County to fleece all for themselves.

Birmingham became the poster child for a new kind of giant-scale financial fraud, one that would threaten the financial stability not only of cities and counties all across America, but even those of entire countries like Greece. While for many Americans the financial crisis remains an abstraction, a confusing mess of complex transactions that took place on a cloud high above Manhattan sometime in the mid-2000s, in Jefferson County you can actually see the rank criminality of the crisis economy with your own eyes; the monster sticks his head all the way out of the water.

Here you can see a trail that leads directly from a billion-dollar predatory swap deal cooked up at the highest levels of America's biggest banks, across a vast fruited plain of bribes and felonies — "the price of doing business," as one JP Morgan banker says on tape — all the way down to Lisa Pack's sewer bill and the mass layoffs in Birmingham.
Once you follow that trail and understand what took place in Jefferson County, there's really no room left for illusions. We live in a gangster state, and our days of laughing at other countries are over. It's our turn to get laughed at.

In Birmingham, lots of people have gone to jail for the crime: More than 20 local officials and businessmen have been convicted of corruption in federal court. Last October, right around the time that Lisa Pack went back to work at reduced hours, Birmingham's mayor was convicted of fraud and money-laundering for taking bribes funneled to him by Wall Street bankers — everything from Rolex watches to Ferragamo suits to cash. But those who greenlighted the bribes and profited most from the scam remain largely untouched. "It never gets back to JP Morgan," says Pack.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 06, 2010, 06:51:26 PM
Quote
Too easy.    :laugh:

I wonder how EASY you are going to survive on your retirement when gold gets to be 10.000 an ounce.

USA=Weimar republic part 2.0

Look at all them dollar mark bills,.., tomatos costing 5 bucks a kilo, you aint seen nothing yet!!

(http://www.kitco.com/ind/Degraaf/images/nov212008_2.jpg)


JC you forget if gold hits $10,000/ounce the results will hit France just as much, maybe more and worse, as North America.  Besides I have about 20 1 ounce .9999 fine gold coins that I've bought and inherited over the last 20 years.  

I've looked for a nice isolated community in the interior of the country for when the nuclear war starts and the bombs fall.  The community is far enough away from the big cities so that when the post apocalyptic aftermath happens and hordes of zombies go looking for human flesh I'll be safe and sound hundreds of miles from the zombies.   :laugh:

Edit:  I'm not a zombie expert but in all the zombie movies I've seen the zombies seem to walk pretty slow and seem to prefer the cities so I think I'll be safe living in a cabin in the woods eating canned beans and growing vegetables and marijuana - the new gold.  ;D
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 07, 2010, 02:46:31 PM
The Latest Gold Fraud Bombshell: Canada's Only Bullion Bank Gold Vault Is Practically Empty

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-only-bullion-bank-gold-vault-practically-empty

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2010 10:30 -0500

Bank Run Commodity Futures Trading Commission Hong Kong Morgan Stanley Precious Metals

Continuing on the trail of exposing what is rapidly becoming one of the largest frauds in commodity markets history is the most recent interview by Eric King with GATA's Adrian Douglas, Harvey Orgen (who recently testified before the CFTC hearing) and his son, Lenny, in which the two discuss their visit to the only bullion bank vault in Canada, that of ScotiaMocatta, located at 40 King Street West in Toronto, and find the vault is practically empty. This is a relevant segue to a class action lawsuit filed against Morgan Stanley, which was settled out of court, in which it was alleged that Morgan Stanley told clients it was selling them precious metals that they would own in full and that the company would store, yet even despite charging storage fees was not in actual possession of the bullion. It appears that this kind of lack of physical holdings by all who claim to have gold in storage, is pervasive as the actual gold globally is held primarily in paper or electronic form. Lenny Organ who was the person to enter the vault of ScotiaMocatta, says "What shocked me was how little gold and silver they actually had." Lenny describes exactly how much (or little as the case may be) silver was available -
 roughly 60,000 ounces.
 As for gold - 210 400 oz bars,
 4,000 maples,
 500 eagles,
 10 kilo bars,
 10 one kilogram pieces of gold nugget form,
 which Adrian Douglas calculates as being $100 million worth, which is just one tenth of what the Royal Mint of Canada sold in 2008, or over $1 billion worth of gold. As Orgen concludes: "The game ends when the people who own all these paper obligations say enough and take physical delivery, and that's when the mess will occur."

Also note the interesting detour into what Stephan Spicer of the Central Fund Of Canada, said regarding his friend at a major bank, who wanted access to his 15,000 oz of silver, and had to wait 6-8 weeks for its to be flown in from Hong Kong.

It is funny that central bankers thought they could take the ponzi mentality of infinite dilution of all assets coupled with infinite debt issuance, as they have done to fiat money, and apply it to gold, in essence piling leverage upon leverage. They underestimated gold holders' willingness to be diluted into perpetuity - when the realization that gold owned is just 1% of what is physically deliverable, you will see the biggest bank run in history.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 07, 2010, 03:05:50 PM
Just spent a hour this morning watching a business program this morning.  The program was live and dealt extensively with the price of gold and its price movements over the last couple of years.  Not once was the manipulation of gold prices mentioned.  The gold market in London was not mentioned at all.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 07, 2010, 05:26:05 PM
Just spent a hour this morning watching a business program this morning.  The program was live and dealt extensively with the price of gold and its price movements over the last couple of years.  Not once was the manipulation of gold prices mentioned.  The gold market in London was not mentioned at all.   

Yeah, me too, my main source of information is the liberal biased media
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 07, 2010, 05:39:24 PM
Just spent a hour this morning watching a business program this morning.  The program was live and dealt extensively with the price of gold and its price movements over the last couple of years.  Not once was the manipulation of gold prices mentioned.  The gold market in London was not mentioned at all.   

Spend less than an hour and read and listen to what's below especially the last clip.

Quote
After the hearing, according to Douglas, Murphy was contacted by several major media outlets for more interviews. Within 24 hours, all the interviews were canceled. All of them.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1193161018.php
crookery that has happened before only with Morgan Stanley

GATA outlining the story to the CFTC committee

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/3/30_Andrew_Maguire_%26_Adrian_Douglass.html
Interview with the former Goldmen Sachs trader now whistle blower
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Markje on April 08, 2010, 08:10:38 AM
I bought my Girl a nice golden necklace, why stick it in a vault somewhere if you can put it inside jewelry.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 09, 2010, 07:11:57 PM
Very Interesting list - see silver coins of first half of last century:

http://inflation.us/coins/

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 10, 2010, 12:17:51 PM
Very Interesting list - see silver coins of first half of last century:

http://inflation.us/coins/



I hear the US allows minting of your own "liberty dollars". I am looking for some Ron Paul Liberty dollars, coins with his silhouette.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 10, 2010, 04:40:18 PM
The preferred coin among myself and my peers in the business is the Canadian Maple leaf. Reason being is that it is 99.99% fine gold and not alloyed with base metals like the US Eagle (90%) and SA Rand (91.66%). The later two have to be refined (what I do) to pure metal (like the Maple Leaf) in order to be used for where gold is usually consumed (dental and jewelry alloys).

ALL the worldwide major gold coins contain 1 oz of 24 karat gold:

South African Krugerrands - Fineness: .9167
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)
Diameter: 34 mm

Vienna Austrian Philharmonics - Fineness: .9999
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)
Diameter: 37 mm

Canadian Maple Leaf - Fineness: .9999
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)
Diameter: 30 mm

US Eagles - Fineness: .916
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)
Diameter: 32.7 mm

American Buffalo - Fineness: .9999
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)

Australian Nugget / Kangaroo - Fineness: .9999
Actual Gold Content: 1.0 troy ounce (31.103 grams)
Diameter: 32.1 mm

Each are avilable in 1 oz, 1/2 oz, 1/4 oz and 1/10 oz sizes (based on gold content)

The evaluation service I use is ICG - it adds approximately $20 to the acquisition cost of the coin.  Considering they provide a guarantee of authenticity, a grade based on uncirculated coin condition and encapsulation of the coin in a tamper-proof case that verifies the grading it seems a reasonable expense. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 10, 2010, 05:33:20 PM

Love him or hate him, Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi always offers an interesting read.

:laugh:
I know (knew) this guy.  Kinda hard to take a guy serious that you've danced with on the bar at The Hungry Duck and chased young devys together at 4 am at places like Propaganda and Vodoo Lounge.   

At one time he was one of the lead writers for "The eXile".  Back in the 1997-2004 timeframe he did some pretty revealing exposes' on corruption in the Russian government; but he always struck me more of a "National Lampoon" type journalist than somebody you'd take seriously. 

He wrote a book with Mark Ames, his Moscow partner in crime.  I sent a copy to Manny and I think he'll agree it's a "classic".  Here's a link:

http://www.amazon.com/Exile-Sex-Drugs-Libel-Russia/dp/0802136524/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1270942192&sr=1-1
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 10, 2010, 05:44:43 PM
I bought my Girl a nice golden necklace, why stick it in a vault somewhere if you can put it inside jewelry.

Hey Mark, don't know if you were just joking or serious, but I want to make sure that you realise that buying a piece of jewelry at a jewelry store does not equal investment in gold? Typically investment grade gold is gold bullion 99.999% pure gold. You can buy it in a form of gold bars or coins. Coins usually hold an additional "collector" value so they run a bit more than a gold bullion bar. Here in the states the most popular investment gold coins are "American eagle", Canadian "Maple Leaf" and "American Buffalo" 1 oz. pure gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 10, 2010, 06:33:46 PM
Very Interesting list - see silver coins of first half of last century:

http://inflation.us/coins/



I hear the US allows minting of your own "liberty dollars". I am looking for some Ron Paul Liberty dollars, coins with his silhouette.

Not quite. From "the land of the free",

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/

Federal agents raid 'Liberty Dollar' headquarters in Indiana
   
updated 11:28 a.m. CT, Fri., Nov . 16, 2007

EVANSVILLE, Ind. - Federal agents raided the headquarters of a group that produces illegal currency and puts it in circulation, seizing gold, silver and two tons of copper coins featuring Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Agents also took records, computers and froze the bank accounts at the "Liberty Dollar" headquarters during the Thursday raid, Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve Act & Internal Revenue Code, said in a posting on the group's Web site.

The organization, which is critical of the Federal Reserve, has repeatedly clashed with the federal government, which contends that the gold, silver and copper coins it produces are illegal. NORFED claims its Liberty Dollars are inflation free and can restore stability to financial markets by allowing commerce based on a currency that does not fluctuate in value like the U.S. dollar.Federal agents raid 'Liberty Dollar' headquarters in Indiana

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/ron-paul-gold-coin.jpg)

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/PH2007111601160.jpg)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 10, 2010, 09:05:22 PM

Holy crap thats a nice hocky  stick graph, but the thing is, there is a hocky stick superimposed on a hockystick, (yah i am not kidding you). If you think that graph was bad, you can check what Bush did since 2004 or even what Obamanomics did in 2008.

In PM Maxx educated me on a new version of the "gold standard" that actually made a lot of sence, maybe you could share it with the group here

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 10, 2010, 09:10:33 PM
Just got me thinking, the Roman republic ended in 67 AC (approx, emperor Octavian aka "Augustus").

So how long did the USA survive as a confederacy (1864) ?

400 years ?, the same as the Roman republic?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 10, 2010, 09:18:19 PM
Markje,

I see you pic where your gf is almost mounting you, lol, ok,..., last time my i had a gf that was into me like that I wasted 20K on a ring, :knit: :knit:



There is no way in hell i am  going to be that stupid again
 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Live it up Markje!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 16, 2010, 03:01:33 PM
Max:

I need to correct my post upthread.

What can you tell me about the resale value of these gold coins?

Austria 100 corona -- 1915 restrikes, gold bullion coins
Fineness: .900
Actual Gold Content: 0.9803 troy ounce
Minted face value: 100 corona

Notice they're slightly less than one full ounce of gold.  Wonder why?  Maybe the original molds they're using from 1915 were flawed in some way?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 16, 2010, 03:16:47 PM
Max:

I need to correct my post upthread.

What can you tell me about the resale value of these gold coins?

Austria 100 corona -- 1915 restrikes, gold bullion coins
Fineness: .900
Actual Gold Content: 0.9803 troy ounce
Minted face value: 100 corona

Notice they're slightly less than one full ounce of gold.  Wonder why?  Maybe the original molds they're using from 1915 were flawed in some way?

Shakey the Austria 100 corona restrikes are low premium gold coins.  They're well known in the gold community but aren't considered in the same category as Canadian Gold Maple Leafs or American Eagles etc.  Lower gold content is probably due to either a shortage of gold at the manufacturing end at the time (it was WW1) or perhaps just a bad manufacturing process.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 16, 2010, 10:18:45 PM

http://www.theonion.com/audio/fort-knox-receives-85-from-cash4gold,13750/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 17, 2010, 07:46:17 AM
Max:

I need to correct my post upthread.

What can you tell me about the resale value of these gold coins?

Austria 100 corona -- 1915 restrikes, gold bullion coins
Fineness: .900
Actual Gold Content: 0.9803 troy ounce
Minted face value: 100 corona

Notice they're slightly less than one full ounce of gold.  Wonder why?  Maybe the original molds they're using from 1915 were flawed in some way?

Gold coins are usually bought from the public a point or two under the market and sold 4 to 6 points above the market. The market is what the value of the gold/silver is at that moment. Also it all depends on the popularity of the coin on how well you will do on the point(s).

I have no idea why they didn't go for one troy ounce. One troy ounce of fine gold/silver was not as popular as it is today. Look at the amount of silver a 1880's Morgain silver dollar has. Overall weight of the coin is 28 grams (31.1 grams equals 1 troy ounce) and that is is only 90% pure. Point is back in those days people didn't much care about coins having exactly one troy ounce of silver or gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 17, 2010, 01:14:26 PM
Well now that the vaunted Goldman Sachs is being charged with fraud for creating mortgage back securities designed to fail so its largest hedge fund customer John Paulson could earn billions shorting the toxic instruments I have lost faith in most Wall Street paper products - however - this new CD is very interesting - any of the precious metals experts here understand how they can guarantee this as a Zero Risk downside?

I must admit I am a bit dubious considering all of the fliam flam scams that have been reported regarding gold contracts to hold physical gold in vaults and subsequent inspection of the vaults showing as little as 1% physical gold to cover all of the paper contracts - sort of like buying a 100 unit apartment building only to find that only one is rented... so back on the topic of these Everbank CDs I am interested how they can make this guarantee promise and actually keep it:

"100% of your principal is protected – even if metal prices plummet in value"

Expert analysis and feedback welcome - though snarky comments best kept to onseself :smokin:

Info:

What if you could buy a CD that wasn’t just backed by “the full faith and credit” of a slippery U.S. government…but rather it was backed by “the full faith and credit” of gold?

Just like any other CD, it’s easily accessible.

You could hold it in your IRA.

And most importantly, it’s principal-protected and the issuer is FDIC insured, meaning you’re guaranteed the safe return of every single penny up to $250,000.

But let’s make the deal even sweeter…

Since it’s backed by precious metals instead of promises, when gold goes up in value, you get a share of the increase.

You’re still guaranteed every single penny. So gold could plummet in price and you’d still get everything back.

But what if gold reaches for new highs?

In the wake of such unprecedented bailouts and government spending, it’s not unlikely.

Sovereign Society Investment Director Eric Roseman believes it will happen.

Everyone from small private investors to leading hedge fund managers like George Soros & John Paulson are jumping on the bandwagon, investing billions in the future of gold.

The logic is simple really…

Gold’s all-time high—adjusted for inflation—works out to almost $2,300 an ounce. That was back in 1980…but inflationary fears will soon return to those levels, and gold will follow suit.

If gold surpasses that all-time high in the next five years – as UBS analysts have specifically predicted – then this amazing safe haven will gain about 50% in value…

That’s well over nineteen times the yield of comparable Treasury Bonds and it offers greater protection from inflation.

All with zero risk to your investment.  

If you are looking for a great way to profit from future gains in gold, silver and platinum….without all the risk, then you should move quickly to take advantage of this newest offering.

Introducing the
MarketSafe Diversified Metals CD from EverBank
If you’ve been following the A-Letter over the last few months, you know our guys look at hundreds of products, companies, and offerings each quarter. And after they’ve done all their homework, only the best of the best hit the page.

To put it simply, our editors are demanding.

Over the past three years, we’ve featured a variety of pioneering foreign currency products from our friends at EverBank, in Jacksonville, Florida.

As you may know, EverBank works with our editors to create custom-tailored foreign currency portfolios like the EverBank All Weather Portfolio, launched in 2007, and the Asian Currency Portfolio. And, last summer EverBank created a BRIC currency portfolio with zero risk and 100% of the gains.

Many of you thanked us for alerting you to that offering….and asked for us to do it again the next time we saw such an opportunity.

Well that opportunity is here now…

For a limited time between April 15th and May 13th, EverBank is offering their new MarketSafe Diversified Metals CD. Here are the highlights…

This investment has a $1,500 minimum
It has a five-year term
It’s comprised of three metals; 1/3 gold, 1/3 silver and 1/3 platinum

100% of your principal is protected – even if metal prices plummet in value.

There is a potential return of up to 50% of your initial investment, based on the average performance of all three metals over the five-year term.

Once every quarter (four times a year) your portfolio will be re-priced based on the performance of the underlying metals
It is IRA-eligible and FDIC-insured
Do you think this is the kind of investment that could make your “mattress money” a little more profitable? And without any undue risk? Would it be a worthy complement to your existing gold assets?

If you answered yes to any of the above questions, or if you’d like to hear more, then you owe it to yourself to click on the link below and pursue the details. This is truly a “one-of-a-kind” opportunity, and you can be sure it won’t last…
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 17, 2010, 01:57:37 PM
Cufflinks,

I was digging through some of the old post, weren't you into realestate,

Could be a good hedge against inflation!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 17, 2010, 02:00:59 PM

Expert analysis and feedback welcome - though snarky comments best kept to onseself :smokin:


OK - I'm not pro but I'm guessing this is how they do it

Remember you will never actually own any precious metal when you buy this investment.  

And only the principle is guaranteed - not any gains in the market value of precious metals.

And the instrument will pay no current income or dividends.  

My guess is they've lending your money out at their bank at high interest rates to less than top-level credit risks and with no interest rate spread to speak of, making money hands over fist in the process.  

I'd also guess they've entered into some kind of complex spread in the derivative or option market.  Probably selling both calls and puts at 1 +50% as the strike price and with a five-year maturity in each commodity.  The value of the premium received less the quarterly evaporating time value of the options will provide the bank a secondary source of income.

Personally, I'd NEVER consider buying such an investment.    
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 17, 2010, 03:04:26 PM

Expert analysis and feedback welcome - though snarky comments best kept to onseself :smokin:


Personally, I'd NEVER consider buying such an investment.    

Shakes - great post and good healthy scepticism - may I ask and probe a little more why you would never consider this investment - the claim is these are IRA elegible and FDIC insured... up to $250K and even though FDIC finances a bit thin they do have a way of twisting arms of healthy banks to take over insured depositors and since most cash is electronic these days they seem to have a friendly FED that backs them up no matter what - read another 140 Banks to fail - a local builders Bank in Mass (Butler Bank) just failed this weekend and no major panics.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 17, 2010, 03:06:24 PM
TOP 10 Q&A from NIA:

Sorry no URL was emailed in my weekly newsletter:

We would like to provide you right now with the 10 most interesting NIAnswers that we have recently added to our database. Please take the time to read and enjoy!

1) How much over spot is a good price for silver and gold?

A good price for a 1 oz silver coin like an American Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf is 12% over spot, and a good price for a 1 oz silver bar is 6% over spot.

For gold, a good price for a 1 oz gold coin like an American Eagle or Canadian Maple Leaf is 4% over spot, and a good price for a 1 oz gold bar is 2% over spot.

The larger premium for silver compared to gold indicates a shortage in the physical silver market.

2) Now that GATA has blown the doors off the LBMA ponzi scheme, and we know there is only 1 oz of silver for every 100 oz represented on paper, why hasn't there been a panic to dump paper and go into physical? What will it take to trigger a short squeeze?

We don't believe there is only 1 oz of physical silver for every 100 oz represented on paper. Most likely, there is 1 to 3 times more paper silver than physical silver. This is still a major problem that will ultimately result in a major silver shortage and short squeeze, once a large number of COMEX holders begin to demand physical delivery of silver. This is a topic that we will be covering extensively in our new documentary coming out next month.

3) If the silver market is controlled by JP Morgan and others, how does the little guy stand a chance of making money?

The manipulation by JP Morgan through naked short selling is providing an opportunity for normal everyday investors to purchase silver at dirt-cheap prices. Without JP Morgan's naked short selling, it's possible silver would already be well above $30 per ounce right now.

Remember, JP Morgan is not manipulating silver up, they are manipulating it down and the manipulation can't last forever. When investors around the globe call for physical delivery of their silver, there will be a shortage of physical silver and JP Morgan will be forced to cover their naked short position, causing silver prices to explode to the upside.

NIA believes silver will eventually see the biggest short squeeze in the history of all commodities.

4) What is the best way to respond to the overused and baseless argument that we needed the stimulus package or else the U.S. economy would've crashed and we would've had another Great Depression?

The stimulus package didn't stimulate the economy but it actually stifled it because we needed to go deeper into debt and borrow the money that was used on projects that added no production to our economy. The jobs that were created were temporary but we still owe the debt. We will need to print the money to pay the debt back, which will ultimately lead to hyperinflation.

Our country does not have access to unlimited financial resources. The money that we borrowed for the stimulus package took away from the money that could've been borrowed by a small business, which could've invested the money into building a factory that would've produced goods and generated real wealth for decades to come.

Our economy needed to enter a recession in order to clean out the toxic assets and imbalances. Today, all of the toxic assets still exist on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the economic imbalances that caused the last crisis have grown larger than ever before.

Instead of going through a steep recession, we will now be forced to eventually endure a hyperinflationary Great Depression. Remember, when there is a boom created by cheap credit, there must eventually be a bust. There is no way around it. All the government has done is push the real collapse down the road while making the eventual outcome a lot more devastating.

5) Why do you not like investing into Real Estate? Isn't it smart to buy Real Estate that is cash-flow positive and then use that cash-flow to purchase precious metals?

Real Estate that is cash-flow positive today, might not be so in the future. In our opinion, it will be impossible for landlords to increase their rents at the same rate as inflation. If you are a landlord, your real cash-flow will diminish over time.

During periods of high inflation, preserving ones purchasing power becomes a lot more important than generating cash-flow. We believe Real Estate will continue to decrease in real value because Real Estate is not very liquid and prices are still at artificially propped up levels. Those who own Real Estate will do poorly compared to those who own precious metals.

6) Do you believe the discovery of many large oil shale deposits in the U.S. will drive down oil prices?

There are several major shale deposits in the U.S. that contain large amounts of oil and natural gas. The cost of extracting oil from these formations is very high and we doubt it will have much of a damper on oil prices. Although it is cheaper and easier to extract natural gas from these formations, we believe the existence of these shale deposits is already factored into our current low natural gas prices. We expect to see many vehicles convert to run off of natural gas in the future, which could lessen the demand for oil, but it will take many years for these conversions to take place. We believe $100+ oil is inevitable due to increasing demand from China and India, and the Federal Reserve's monetary inflation.

7) Do you believe Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) being issued by the IMF will accelerate the U.S. into hyperinflation? Are SDRs being setup to become the new world reserve currency?

From 1970 to 1981 the IMF issued $30 billion worth of SDRs, and gold and silver prices soared to record real highs. The IMF recently issued approximately $300 billion worth of new SDRs. Certainly, this shows that inflation is a major problem around the world and now is the time to own gold and silver.

We don't believe SDRs are being setup to become a new world reserve currency. It would be much more beneficial to China for them to allow their own currency to become the reserve currency.

8) I am considering a career in the military. With the coming collapse, will the military offer me and my family any type of security or will the hyperinflation affect the military as well?

We don't think the U.S. government will be able to afford the military it has today for much longer. Our military needs to be scaled back immediately if we want to prevent hyperinflation. During hyperinflation, the army will most likely be used mainly to protect government officials. Those who are left in the military will demand to be paid in gold, until our gold reserves are completely depleted.

9) I work at Disney Orlando as a server. I make about $300 a day on average. My seniority is rather high. What will happen to my job when the economy collapses?

We can't picture Disney World in Orlando ever closing its doors and going out of business. Certainly, your wages will decline in purchasing power and workers will demand higher nominal wages. Disney will have to increase admission fees and if visitors can't afford them, Disney will layoff employees. Hopefully your level of seniority will ensure your job safety.

The good thing about Disney World is many Asian visitors and foreign tourists come each year. We might see the percentage of foreign visitors increase in the years to come and make up a larger percentage of Disney World's theme park revenues.

10) If the government imposes a value added tax, how will that affect inflation?

We believe Americans are already taxed to the hilt and any additional taxes will have the effect of reducing tax revenues. We need to move the discussion in America away from taxes and towards inflation. It is impossible to fund our current level of government spending and pay back our national debt through taxation. It will all be paid through massive monetary inflation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on April 17, 2010, 06:03:09 PM
Why buy milk when you can buy the cow?

I've spent many years working in gold mines, the fascination with this shiny metal has been lost. To me it is just another commodity that some people are willing to pay ridiculous prices for.

I agree with many that holding physical gold is a good store of wealth, but it remains nothing but a dead asset. If you believe that the price of gold will increase dramatically, it would make a lot more sense to me to invest in gold mining companies. You get a lot more leverage as the price increases.

I like to have some exposure to gold in my investments, and have accomplished this by owning shares of mining exploration companies that have proven gold resources in the ground. This is probably one of the riskiest ways to provide gold diversification, but the rewards can be outrageous.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 18, 2010, 10:42:40 AM
JC:

I was building and rehabbing Real Estate and Income Properties since I was old enough to hold a can of paint for my old man (6 years old) and I have a preference and natural inclination towards income properties and I believe there is a market for highly solar efficient and energy efficient homes in the Northern States as energy seems to be going one way and that is up - even biomass fuels (Firewood, BioDiesel and Wood Pellets etc) require oil and natural gas to process and transport.

Also need to pay heed to #5 in Q&A above:

5) Why do you not like investing into Real Estate? Isn't it smart to buy Real Estate that is cash-flow positive and then use that cash-flow to purchase precious metals?

Real Estate that is cash-flow positive today, might not be so in the future. In our opinion, it will be impossible for landlords to increase their rents at the same rate as inflation. If you are a landlord, your real cash-flow will diminish over time.

During periods of high inflation, preserving ones purchasing power becomes a lot more important than generating cash-flow. We believe Real Estate will continue to decrease in real value because Real Estate is not very liquid and prices are still at artificially propped up levels. Those who own Real Estate will do poorly compared to those who own precious metals.

...

Thing about NIA even though they tend to enjoy too much Caleeforneeyah Spice smoking they don't have much love for Democrats or Republicans and are really just trying to alert people to the fact that our last bubble bursting was bad enough with with a locked market and frozen banking system in Sept 2008 and Stock market collapse to lows in March 2009 (If I recall Oil dropped below $35 per barrel in March 09 and recently hit almost $90 a Barrel) with demand rebounding.

So point is if you ignore the next bubble currently forming you could really be wiped out and forced to live off government dole programs - not good scenarios for most western governments are so deep in debt that actuaries state that there really is no way to pay for government programs and pay off the debt nor see balanced budgets ever again in our lifetimes.

Only countries looking good are the low population commodities countries that can feed the energy,  commodities and food demands of the rest of the world including Canada, Australia, Norway, Russia.

A ray of hope for the USA is that we have very productive health technologies and agricultural sectors and as the developing countries see their populations explode they will need to eat and need medicines and our food and Pharma producers (exporters) will see a much brighter future.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 18, 2010, 12:39:21 PM
OK, cufflinks,

thanks for the explanation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 18, 2010, 01:18:09 PM
OK, cufflinks,

thanks for the explanation.

That said Professor Shiller an economics professor at Yale Univeristy was on a news show this weekend stating in reality there is a massive shadow inventory of real estate in arrears and eventually pending foreclosure and that banks and that the Fed and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are trying to hold off the market in order to prop up the value of the remaining banks balance sheets and that if fact eventually this inventory will flood the markets and supply demand laws will "equillibrate" as they always do and there should be some amazing Real Estate discounts available in most regions of the country over the next 24 to 36 months.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 18, 2010, 01:31:12 PM
OK, cufflinks,

thanks for the explanation.

That said Professor Shiller an economics professor at Yale Univeristy was on a news show this weekend stating in reality there is a massive shadow inventory of real estate in arrears and eventually pending foreclosure and that banks and that the Fed and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are trying to hold off the market in order to prop up the value of the remaining banks balance sheets and that if fact eventually this inventory will flood the markets and supply demand laws will "equillibrate" as they always do and there should be some amazing Real Estate discounts available in most regions of the country over the next 24 to 36 months.



Absolutely the right strategy to keep your powder dry (invest in gold and other assets) till this real estate thing unwinds so you can buy for pennies on the dollar. As of now, avoid real estate!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 18, 2010, 04:04:48 PM
Last 2 posts from CL and JC - good strategy IMO.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 18, 2010, 04:48:35 PM
Keep something in mind guys about gold. It can be private
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 18, 2010, 04:55:26 PM


Absolutely the right strategy to keep your powder dry (invest in gold and other assets) till this real estate thing unwinds so you can buy for pennies on the dollar. As of now, avoid real estate!

I have a close friend who just lost $500,000 in a real estate deal in Phoenix AZ. Rental properties that he owns that are costing him a bundle every month. He's about to walk away from the whole deal. Instead he is teaming up with me on making gold buys from the public. He was like many here who has disdain for gold "no earned interest" etc. Real estate is not the only thing that is unwinding.


Maxx

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 18, 2010, 05:09:19 PM


Absolutely the right strategy to keep your powder dry (invest in gold and other assets) till this real estate thing unwinds so you can buy for pennies on the dollar. As of now, avoid real estate!

I have a close friend who just lost $500,000 in a real estate deal in Phoenix AZ. Rental properties that he owns that are costing him a bundle every month. He's about to walk away from the whole deal. Instead he is teaming up with me on making gold buys from the public. He was like many here who has disdain for gold "no earned interest" etc. Real estate is not the only thing that is unwinding.


Maxx



Maxx, what is this rumour i am hearing the IMF is selling off all of its gold and pushing down the price to maybe 800-500 and ounce? In a last ditch attempt to save the USD before all goes south like the Weimar Republic?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on April 18, 2010, 05:24:52 PM


Absolutely the right strategy to keep your powder dry (invest in gold and other assets) till this real estate thing unwinds so you can buy for pennies on the dollar. As of now, avoid real estate!

I have a close friend who just lost $500,000 in a real estate deal in Phoenix AZ. Rental properties that he owns that are costing him a bundle every month. He's about to walk away from the whole deal. Instead he is teaming up with me on making gold buys from the public. He was like many here who has disdain for gold "no earned interest" etc. Real estate is not the only thing that is unwinding.


Maxx



Maxx, what is this rumour i am hearing the IMF is selling off all of its gold and pushing down the price to maybe 800-500 and ounce? In a last ditch attempt to save the USD before all goes south like the Weimar Republic?


I haven't heard that. It might not be possible. There is so many individuals and countries that would love to stock pile the stuff if the market drops a few hundred dollars or so. China is holding back from buying too fast as an example. In the recent past the banks have dumped some tonnage and it was just gobbled up *burp* and the market price would just bounce back up.


Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 18, 2010, 07:29:48 PM
Why buy milk when you can buy the cow?

I've spent many years working in gold mines, the fascination with this shiny metal has been lost. To me it is just another commodity that some people are willing to pay ridiculous prices for.

I agree with many that holding physical gold is a good store of wealth, but it remains nothing but a dead asset. If you believe that the price of gold will increase dramatically, it would make a lot more sense to me to invest in gold mining companies. You get a lot more leverage as the price increases.

I like to have some exposure to gold in my investments, and have accomplished this by owning shares of mining exploration companies that have proven gold resources in the ground. This is probably one of the riskiest ways to provide gold diversification, but the rewards can be outrageous.


BCKev - would appreciate your opinion of these companies:

http://inflation.us/stockupdates2.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on April 18, 2010, 10:49:32 PM

BCKev - would appreciate your opinion of these companies:

http://inflation.us/stockupdates2.html


Hey Cuff, here's a quick and dirty opinion on your list of gold and silver stocks.

Overall it is a pretty good list of solid companies. Some would be much riskier than others: EGI and IVN are not producers, but appear to have some decent projects going; CGLD has only one operating mine and many of the companies have the benefit of multiple operating mines.

RGLD and SLW are not mining companies, but royalty companies. This could be an interesting way to play the Au/Ag price with some insulation from operational or political problems and good diversification by having revenue streams from multiple mines, companies and jurisdictions. Franco-Nevada (FNV) is another well known gold royalty company, a guy could learn a lot reading through their website. I've read good things about SLW over the past year.

Unless you are willing to spend a lot of time researching these outfits and keeping up with their operations, I figure you would be a lot safer either going with one of the royalty companies, or with the mid to large gold producers (AUY, EGO, GG, NEM, ABX).

I have no opinion on the current share price of any of these, ie.: whether this is a good time to buy or not.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 19, 2010, 08:06:28 AM
Shakes - great post and good healthy scepticism - may I ask and probe a little more why you would never consider this investment -

I have a rule - if it takes more than one page (front and back) typset to explain the investment, I want no part in it. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 19, 2010, 03:26:05 PM
Shakes - great post and good healthy scepticism - may I ask and probe a little more why you would never consider this investment -

I have a rule - if it takes more than one page (front and back) typset to explain the investment, I want no part in it. 

Allways stick with that! everthing else is a ponzy scheme! real Economics ain't that hard to understand!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 19, 2010, 09:26:40 PM

BCKev - would appreciate your opinion of these companies:

http://inflation.us/stockupdates2.html


Hey Cuff, here's a quick and dirty opinion on your list of gold and silver stocks.

Overall it is a pretty good list of solid companies. Some would be much riskier than others: EGI and IVN are not producers, but appear to have some decent projects going; CGLD has only one operating mine and many of the companies have the benefit of multiple operating mines.

RGLD and SLW are not mining companies, but royalty companies. This could be an interesting way to play the Au/Ag price with some insulation from operational or political problems and good diversification by having revenue streams from multiple mines, companies and jurisdictions. Franco-Nevada (FNV) is another well known gold royalty company, a guy could learn a lot reading through their website. I've read good things about SLW over the past year.

Unless you are willing to spend a lot of time researching these outfits and keeping up with their operations, I figure you would be a lot safer either going with one of the royalty companies, or with the mid to large gold producers (AUY, EGO, GG, NEM, ABX).

I have no opinion on the current share price of any of these, ie.: whether this is a good time to buy or not.


Great feedback - may I ask the technical difference between a mining company and a "royalty" company?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on April 19, 2010, 09:44:44 PM

Great feedback - may I ask the technical difference between a mining company and a "royalty" company?


Nothing very technical about the distinction between these types of companies: a mining company digs the ore from the ground, processes it, and sells the product.

A royalty company will purchase agreements from a mining company for a percentage of the product, percent of the net smelter return, rights to buy the mine's production at a certain price, etc.  Such agreements are one way to provide start up capital.

Take a look at this link for a better explanation of royalties:  http://www.franco-nevada.com/royalties/royalties-explained

Here's a couple of interesting quotes from the link I posted above:

"Therefore, the royalty holder is generally not responsible for, and has no obligation to contribute additional funds for any purpose, including, but not limited to, operating or capital costs, or environmental or reclamation liabilities."

"The unique characteristics of royalties provide royalty holders with special commercial benefits not available to the property owner because the royalty holder enjoys the upside potential of the property with reduced risk."




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 24, 2010, 11:46:22 AM


By Claudia Carpenter

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance as investors seek a haven in precious metals from the possibility of debt defaults, a survey showed.

Fifteen of 20 traders, analysts and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg, or 75 percent, said gold may rise next week. Two people expect a decline and three were neutral. Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.1 percent this week to $1,138.30 an ounce on the Comex in New York by 11:30 a.m. local time yesterday.

The total budget shortfall for 16 countries that use the euro widened to 6.3 percent of gross domestic product last year, from 2 percent in 2008, the European Union’s statistics office said yesterday. Gold rose 24 percent last year as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates close to zero to revive the economy.

“The conditions that caused investors to buy and hold gold last year have not fundamentally changed, and the added risk of sovereign default only adds to the reasons to hold,” said Adrian Day, chief executive officer of Annapolis, Maryland-based Adrian Day Asset Management with $132 million in assets.

Prices may vary between $1,130 and $1,170, he said. Jeff Christian, managing director at New York-based research company CPM Group, forecast a range of $1,080 to $1,160.

The red bars on the attached chart show the difference between bearish forecasts and bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling that most respondents expect a decline in prices. The green line shows the gold price. The figures are to April 16.

The weekly gold survey that started almost six years ago has forecast prices accurately in 175 of 308 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.

This week’s survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 2 Neutral: 3

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 22, 2010 19:01 EDT
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on May 28, 2010, 10:10:34 AM
Whaddya think, is there a market for these puppies in North America? :chuckle:

http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/emirates-palace-goes-for-gold/


Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 30, 2010, 03:51:45 PM
Whaddya think, is there a market for these puppies in North America? :chuckle:

http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/emirates-palace-goes-for-gold/


Brass

Considering that a very popular crime in our area is to steal one armed bandits - er ah um Private ATMs from Convenience stores in the wee hours by the Smash with a Truck and grab method - wrap a very heavy duty steal chain around it and then gun the truck motor with the chain attached to the tow hitch and then get 3 big goons (accomplices) to toss it into the back of the truck and take it to a clandestine chop shop and divide the loot - the Gold Machine would last about a day or two  :smokin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on May 30, 2010, 08:41:37 PM
Whaddya think, is there a market for these puppies in North America? :chuckle:

http://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/emirates-palace-goes-for-gold/


Brass

Considering that a very popular crime in our area is to steal one armed bandits - er ah um Private ATMs from Convenience stores in the wee hours by the Smash with a Truck and grab method - wrap a very heavy duty steal chain around it and then gun the truck motor with the chain attached to the tow hitch and then get 3 big goons (accomplices) to toss it into the back of the truck and take it to a clandestine chop shop and divide the loot - the Gold Machine would last about a day or two  :smokin:
might take a lot more than 3 goons to lift a machine full of gold... :nod:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on May 30, 2010, 09:49:56 PM
"Until gold can be made synthetically like diamonds it will always have value."

So everyone knows synthetic diamonds are made for an entirely different reason than for jewelry. Having said that diamonds are not at all rare.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 31, 2010, 12:01:47 PM
View From Montreal:
Investment Conference May 26th 2010:

Why Gold is a Buy Right Now
And Why the Great Euro Bailout
Means You Should Stock Up

(Ironic that a local Ameriprise Financial Consultant (Broker) strongly urged me to stay out of Gold as it is overpriced and does not pay any dividends... Go Figure).

By Eric Roseman

At the rand refinery in South Africa, the phone was ringing off the hook earlier this month.
The refinery, which sells the mighty fine South African kruggerand gold coin, usually gets orders for about 2,000 coins at a time from their European clients.
But last week, a German bank ordered 30,000 coins in one shot … followed by another 15,000 coins from another bank.
It’s no wonder, as Germany agreed to contribute to the International Monetary Fund's and the European Union's 750-billion-euro bailout plan.
Sure, you could play the euro here … or maybe even the rand … but take a close look at what type of coin the rand is.
And there, friends, is your "golden" opportunity! Here's why…

The Impact of the Great Euro Bailout:

Individuals in Europe are growing alarmed that the European Central Bank (ECB) has deviated from the anti-inflation mantra set forth by the legendary German Bundesbank and, instead, will begin monetizing debt or creating paper money to bail out weaker Eurozone countries.
The ECB’s credibility is now in the toilet along with the Fed's – two of the world’s largest reserve or quasi-reserve currencies.
In the end, I think the ECB, IMF and the Germans will stabilize the Eurozone capital markets. And what we’re witnessing right before our very eyes is the beginning of the end of the post-World War II global exchange-rate system.
The exchange-rate mechanism, dominated by free-floating currencies since 1971, is out-of-control, destructive and causing all sorts of chaos for governments, investors and businesses alike.

In 2010, gold prices have gained 13% in dollar terms, 28% in euros and 13% in yen. The chart below has gone parabolic, showing gold in euro terms.
 
The endgame will be a formidable crash, probably a dollar crash.
And as my friend Frank Trotter over at EverBank shared with Total Wealth Symposium guests last week at our breakfast panel on gold and currencies, he sees a continued dip in the euro before it moves higher.

You Know You Should Own Gold. Here's Why

Everyone has probably told you to buy gold. (If they haven't, you might not be talking to the right people!)
But when it boils right down to it -- as our friend Rich Checkan, of Asset Strategies International, told Symposium guests -- gold is up against all currencies, as almost all are struggling.
As Rich elaborated, "We're printing a lot of money, and struggling with a lot of domestic issues. With the floor for gold at about 1,050, the world has sent a signal that it's OK with four-digit gold."
Over the coming 12 to 16 months, we may see the greatest market ever for gold.
One reason is that the International Monetary Fund is holding 190 tons of gold that it has to unload. North of $1,250 per troy ounce, the IMF could start unloading it to get cash for the bailouts in Europe.
What will that mean for prices? In the absence of aggressive interest-rate hikes in the world, investors should use the upcoming correction – which should be quite sharp but short-lived – as another opportunity to accumulate gold.

What's the Best Way to Buy Gold?

Like Frank says, nothing beats holding gold in whatever you call your backyard.
If you're interested in owning physical gold, there's no time like the present to think about where you’re going to store it.
Gold and silver, and particularly gold, should be held in a diversified way. You can hold it in your home domicile (coins in a safe), with a family member you trust, in a bank at a safety deposit box, and you could have some physical gold overseas -- not just for tax reasons, but for insurance.
Most people go to gold because they’re concerned about their wealth. And they will for the foreseeable future.
But Rich notes that right now, "People are buying for need, and not greed.
"No matter how high gas goes, you need to fill your tank," he said, noting that many people are buying gold because they've temporarily lost faith in currencies.

Another Way to Own Gold

If you're looking or another way to diversify your gold holdings, there are plenty of gold-mining stocks out there that are there for the taking.
Our friend, and coin legend, Van Simmons tells us that he trades mining stocks every day -- and that they often trail the price of gold. "Gold has been in such a strong bull market that, if it pulls back 50 bucks, people think the bull market is over."
Van notes, however, that we haven’t seen the blowup or the pullback in gold-mining stocks. "I think gold-mining shares will have their day."
Why I Own Gold … and Will, for the Considerable Future
I don’t own gold because I’m necessarily worried about inflation or deflation.
I don’t own it because I’m a "gold-bug."
And I don’t own it because I think we’re approaching the end of world as we know it.
I own gold (and some silver) mainly because the global exchange-rate system is not functioning properly, and the balance of power that has shifted from West to East (accelerated since the 2008 crisis) will increasingly demand a replacement for fiat dollars or fiat euro.

That transition will be violent.
That’s why I own gold.
Never in the history of the world has economic power shifted peacefully from one dominant nation to another without some sort of conflict or crisis. This time will be no different.
Also, I do think the consequences of all this printing will result in enormous inflation down the road – staggering inflation.
The Hottest of the 'Hot Commodities'
Gold is hot … maybe too hot right now. And just like any "hot commodity," it's subject to a cooling-off period.
As our friend Thomas Fischer, of Jyske Global Asset Management, warned, "Gold is a great store of wealth, but everyone's on the same side of the trade right now."
It's easy to see why.

Gold is in a secular long-term bull market. Those investors who fail to recognize or appreciate the primary trend also fail to understand gold’s role in a post-credit crisis environment of escalating government deficits, central bank debt monetization and the adverse long-term implications of these policies on paper money’s purchasing power.
The IMF has about 200 tons of gold that it wants to sell, but it isn’t finding any buyers.
So although this suggests that central banks aren’t looking to build gold reserves at $1,230 an ounce for now, I think that will change ahead of the next currency crisis – probably in the United States.

The World Gold Council recently reported that net gold sales by central banks are now at their lowest levels in 20 years. Selling by European central banks slowed to a crawl following the renewal last September of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which regulates the sales.

Only 2 tons have been sold since September 2009.

Whereas central banks dumped bullion en masse in the 1990s, many are now either holding on to their bullion stash or in many cases, as it pertains to the emerging markets, accumulating gold.

No Reason to Sell

The IMF doesn’t have to sell gold. The United States is its largest shareholder and can simply transfer the money it needs for bail-outs electronically.

But it would seem like an opportune moment for the IMF to sell gold now in order to depress this rally, which compromises paper money and its legitimacy.

At some point later this year or in early 2011, I think the U.S. economy will double-dip or sputter back into a recession. That’s when we’ll see gold surge to $2,000 an ounce or higher — and very quickly.

This will probably mark the last time investors will get a chance to buy bullion before the final phase of this bull market takes prices to at least the 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $2,309 an ounce. So, use any short-term pullback as another opportunity to buy gold.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 01, 2010, 10:08:50 PM
Another interesting Article:

(Digging up stats about Weimar Republic and comparing them to Obamanomics is a bit of cause to pause and think... )

Mainstream Media Incompetent About U.S. Inflation
 
NIA finds it disturbing that mainstream media outlets continue to give credibility to imbeciles like Dave Ramsey. Ramsey recently described gold as being "dumb", "speculative", "volatile", and one of the "weirdest" investments. Ramsey compared investing into gold to investing into diamonds and called its value an "illusion". He said that Real Estate is a much better hedge against inflation.
 
Ramsey recommends to his viewers that they purchase certificates of deposit (CDs) and tells them that once they save up enough money they should buy rental properties because, "People always need housing." It's a shame that prominent figures in the mainstream media today are giving such dangerous investment advice that will cause their viewers to see the purchasing power of their savings wiped out. The mainstream media needs to catch up with the times and realize the devastating effects inflation has had and will continue to have on our economy.
 
20 years ago, senior citizens were able to purchase CDs and live off of the interest they collected. With just $200,000 in a CD, seniors would earn $17,000 per year in interest income. Combined with social security, they had plenty of money to live comfortably. Today, $200,000 in a CD would only earn $600 per year in interest income and $600 today only has the purchasing power of $150 compared to 1990. This means seniors are now earning 99% less interest income on their savings compared to 20 years ago. NIA believes CDs are a "dumb" investment, because the real rate of price inflation in the U.S. today is already north of 5%. Those who own CDs paying 0.3% interest, are seeing a dramatic decline in their purchasing power.
 
Gold is the most stable asset the world has ever seen. While on the surface, U.S. dollars appear to be a "safe haven" because they have a number on them that always stays the same, U.S. dollars are actually the riskiest asset you can possibly own when you have a Federal Reserve that has expanded its monetary base by 135% since September of 2008. What volatility in gold prices actually show you is just how unstable the U.S. dollar is.
 
Gold is the best possible hedge against inflation because it is the most liquid asset in the world. If you own gold, it is possible to exchange it for any fiat currency instantaneously. Gold is easy to transport, easily dividable, very durable, fungible (one piece is equivalent to another - which is why diamonds can't be used as money), difficult to counterfeit, easily recognizable, expensive to produce (it can't be printed), with a value that's easy to determine at any time. These are all of the qualities that make a good inflation hedge.
 
Real Estate is not a good hedge against inflation because it's an asset that is very difficult to sell. In today's market it usually takes at least 12 to 18 months to sell a house and the transaction involves inspections, mortgage approvals, contracts, brokers commissions, etc. Considering the large shadow inventory of homes that will soon hit the market and cause a second wave of mortgage defaults, it will be many years until Real Estate is a good investment. By then, the median U.S. home will cost less than 1,000 ounces of silver.
 
Being a landlord with rental properties will not be a good business to be in during the upcoming U.S. hyperinflationary depression. In Weimar Germany during the years 1912-1913 before hyperinflation occurred, the average household spent 30.2% of their monthly expenditures on rent. By the third quarter of 1923, rents fell to just 0.2% of the average household's monthly expenditures. At the height of hyperinflation in Weimar Germany, households were spending 91.6% of their monthly expenditures on food, making it impossible for landlords to raise rents in any meaningful way. With a piece of fruit costing more than a month's rent, landlords saw their real rental income evaporate.
 
Unfortunately, the majority of Americans don't think for themselves. They get suckered into believing the financial advice of Ramsey and other morons who spew the same nonsense. Ramsey, who should have been chastised for being so wrong about the U.S. economy for so many years, is now quoted in the media more often than ever and was rewarded by FOX Business with his own television show. The media's agenda is not to prepare Americans for the currency crisis ahead, but to help maintain the dollar bubble for a little bit longer.
 
Please continue to spread the word about NIA by telling your friends and family to subscribe for free at: http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=1036277407&msgid=1970852&act=OOUU&c=422754&destination=http%3A%2F%2Finflation.us



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 02, 2010, 11:37:12 AM
And another interesting article:

Why Gold ETFs Will Continue to Shine
 
Topics:ETFs

ByKevin Grewal, TheStreet.com Contributor , On Wednesday June 2, 2010, 9:09 am EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold posted its highest close in two weeks, edging closer to the $1,300-per-ounce mark as investors shunned risk because of geopolitical tensions and a falling euro. Global uncertainty is likely to continue, and that should help gold -- and the ETFs that track the metal -- to continue to shine.

Concerns about the eurozone continue to widen with last week's downgrade of Spain's debt. Ratings agency Fitch cut the nation's debt from an AAA to AA+.

A further blow came for Europe when the European Central Bank announced that eurozone banks may have to write off loans totaling $240 billion this year and next, which could result in tighter credit markets and slower economic growth.

Additionally, rumors have been floating around that France's debt rating will be the next in the region to get hit with a downgrade. Adding to the uncertainty, German President Horst Koehler recently resigned.

The global appetite for risk is also declining because of military tensions elsewhere, both on the Korean peninsula and in the Middle East, where Israel's clash with a flotilla of ships carrying aid to the Gaza Strip has increased friction between the nation and its neighbors.

Gold also is likely to witness further price support from concerns about global economic growth. In China, the Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) read 53.9 for May, well below expectations. In India, water scarcity could potentially hinder economic growth. In the U.S., unemployment levels continue to remain elevated, companies remain reluctant to hire full-time employees and the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to affect energy prices.

In a nutshell, as long as financial uncertainty prevails and there are geopolitical tensions, gold is likely to continue to see positive price support.

Following are some ETFs that offer exposure to the precious metal:

The SPDR Gold Trust, which is the world's largest gold ETF and boasted record holdings of 1,267.93 metric tons at the end of last week. GLD closed at $119.91 on Tuesday.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, which is an equity play on gold mining companies. GDX includes Barrick Gold Corporation, Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti as its top holdings. The ETF closed at $49.81 on Tuesday.

The PowerShares DB Gold Fund, which utilizes futures contracts in gold. DGL closed at $43.74 on Tuesday.

Although there appear to be plenty of factors that should continue to buoy gold, it is important to keep in mind the risks that are involved with investing in such a commodity. To help mitigate these risks, we recommend the use of an exit strategy that identifies specific price points at which an upward trend in an asset may come to an end.

According to data at www.SmartStops.net, the price points where the aforementioned ETFs may cease their upward moves are: GLD at $115.35; GDX at $47.58; and DGL at $41.92.

-- Written by Kevin Grewal in Laguna Niguel, Calif.

At the time of publication, Grewal was long DGL.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 14, 2010, 01:55:47 PM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8


Six months later and Gold is at $1270 per ounce. That's an increase of 10%.

Silver from $17.50 to $20.50 an increase of 15%
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 14, 2010, 02:12:07 PM
Gold is at 1150 usd and rising, .......anyone scared yet?
http://www.youtube.com/user/geraldcelente#p/u/8/1pOC0eHaeA8


Six months later and Gold is at $1270 per ounce. That's an increase of 10%.

Silver from $17.50 to $20.50 an increase of 15%

You aint seen nothing yet,

2 year T bills expire in 2012, Since the US does not even pay the interest on the debt, but rolls it over with NEW debt people are catching on and not sinking their time and labor into zimbabwen like "funny paper".

One of these days the Chinese are going to spend their hard earned sweatshop labor on themselves, their own schools and infrastructure instead of paying for American medicare!

That is the same day Gold will fly to ...heck that could be over 6000 USD , and probably see the return to Rosevelt-like confiscation of all privatly held gold.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 03:18:08 PM

Something to think about:

http://inflation.us/pathtocollapse.html

Also:

The Mother of Bears Coming in 2011
Eric Roseman (September 7, 2010)
Montreal, Canada

Stay defensive and don’t let the tremendous month-to-month volatility in asset markets dissuade you from the big picture. That’s my message to investors in 2010. I’m still forecasting a massive stock market decline from now until late 2011; for most investors, avoiding the market altogether makes the best sense, unless you can successfully hedge your portfolio in the upcoming storm.

I’ve been bearish on stocks since late 2007 and remain a devout pessimist. I’ve outlined my case for remaining bearish over the last few years, namely the ongoing destruction of credit – exacerbated by government bailouts, ballooning sovereign government debt levels and the secular damage to household balance sheets caused by a crash in home prices and common stocks since 2006 and 2008, respectively.

I think even the most optimistic bull has started to sweat since May’s flash-crash. It’s obvious by now to most bulls that the cyclical rally that has occurred since March 2009 has run out of gas. Earnings expectations will have to be revised lower over the next 6-12 months – something the markets have yet to discount. That process of adjustment will be ugly. The bond market has begun this process but stocks are lost in the quagmire and remain the whipping boys of credit.

I think the stock market will post another decline this month before resuming a powerful short-term uptrend starting in late October or November that will last several months into March or April 2011. By next March you’ll want to be out of Dodge. And I’m talking far away from Dodge City.

The stock market will suffer a huge decline of at least 25% to 35%, possibly more, starting next spring through fall when a great bottom will occur. Historically, enormous bottoms have occurred in the fall. That’s when I plan on throwing almost all I’ve got into big bargains.

The odds favor a government-injected dose of specially-targeted stimulus this fall as we approach Congressional elections. Obama, who will hopefully be a one-term president, will massage the Bush tax cuts or/and introduce a payroll tax holiday in 2011. That’s the buzz in Washington now. I think such moves would be interpreted as very bullish developments for the market, triggering a monster rally later this fall and probably into 2011.

By the time we head into the spring of 2011, however, the fear of a double-dip recession will become reality as economic data starts to fall off a cliff. The bond market sniffs this now. That’s when market mayhem will begin in earnest and, possibly, deepened by one or more sovereign government defaults, a major bank failure in Europe and/or a Black Swan event that none of us can possibly imagine. This will be too much for the markets to swallow.

The buy-and-hold markets of yesterday won’t reappear until late 2011. From now until then, this isn’t a market for most investors to dabble. Unless you know how to hedge and protect your portfolio from severe volatility, avoid the markets until later next year. I’ve got a bad feeling about what lies ahead.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 03:48:39 PM
Well same highly regarded Montreal Investment Advisor now feels USA Sunbelt (Eduard's neck of the Palms) is best value in a lifetime:

Forget Home-Builder Stocks; Buy Real Estate Properties Directly for Real Yield & High Value Eric Roseman (September 8, 2010)
Montreal, Canada

Some big names in the hedge fund business are currently long and strong the home-builders. Master trader, John Paulson, whose hedge funds circumvented betting against mortgage-backed securities with Goldman Sachs four years ago, is now long the home-building stocks. The man who helped bring down housing now likes the sector. Can you believe this guy?

I’ve got some respect for Paulson because he’s a gold bull. Yeah, he’s got a few more bucks than I do, but in all fairness, I was bullish on gold long before he was. The same goes for Soros.

In all honesty, I have little respect for these hedge fund types because they’re fickle characters; one day in and the next out, regardless of fundamentals. Not my style.

If you’re worried about financial markets like I am and don’t believe we’ve seen the ultimate bottom in stock prices, then consider real estate. I’m talking about distressed residential properties in the sunbelt either for a personal dwelling or rental.

I just made my first offer on a condominium in Montreal. Rates are super low and high-end Montreal residential real estate is still attractive compared to cities like Toronto and Vancouver. I just paid $366 per square foot for one of the best buildings in Montreal. That’s not expensive.

I’m also interested in properties in the ravaged sunbelt. To get an idea about how bad things still are in Florida check out Zillow.com ( http://www.zillow.com/local-info/FL-home-value/r_14/ )

I’ve been harping on this for more than a year. Though the real estate market might not have bottomed yet in the United States, now is the time to start hunting for bargains.

Some real estate bears I know – and they might be right – believe the market hasn’t hit a floor yet as the economy waffles again. But the numbers say otherwise.

As a Canadian or a foreigner, U.S. real estate is cheap. Financing is now at a 40-year low. And the Canadian dollar, at about 1.05 USD, is still a great trade at this price for the Yankee buck.

If you’re planning on living somewhere in the sun, then now is the time to start looking for bargains.

Who really cares if prices decline another 10%? Isn’t that just being greedy? Prices have already crashed up to 50% in some markets.

If you plan on living in your new home or condo in Miami, Orlando or Las Vegas, or perhaps considering renting that property out for income, does it really matter what the market does over the next few years?

I don’t think it matters, unless you’re objective is to flip that property.

I’d be a buyer in places like Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Value investors buy when there’s Blood in the Streets. I’m not sure if waiting for a Massacre on Elm Street is going to happen. Prices are already way down and it’s a big buyer’s market. United States sunbelt property is the bargain of the century.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 14, 2010, 04:46:12 PM

That is the same day Gold will fly to ...heck that could be over 6000 USD , and probably see the return to Rosevelt-like confiscation of all privatly held gold.



This time it will be different. People have no trust in the government unlike in the thirties. Gold and silver will be swapped back and forth for needed goods. They won't turn it in. Dumb guys  :) like Andrew and Turbo will wished they had some.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 14, 2010, 05:10:22 PM
Well same highly regarded Montreal Investment Advisor now feels USA Sunbelt (Eduard's neck of the Palms) is best value in a lifetime:

Forget Home-Builder Stocks; Buy Real Estate Properties Directly for Real Yield & High Value Eric Roseman (September 8, 2010)
Montreal, Canada

Some big names in the hedge fund business are currently long and strong the home-builders. Master trader, John Paulson, whose hedge funds circumvented betting against mortgage-backed securities with Goldman Sachs four years ago, is now long the home-building stocks. The man who helped bring down housing now likes the sector. Can you believe this guy?

I’ve got some respect for Paulson because he’s a gold bull. Yeah, he’s got a few more bucks than I do, but in all fairness, I was bullish on gold long before he was. The same goes for Soros.

In all honesty, I have little respect for these hedge fund types because they’re fickle characters; one day in and the next out, regardless of fundamentals. Not my style.

If you’re worried about financial markets like I am and don’t believe we’ve seen the ultimate bottom in stock prices, then consider real estate. I’m talking about distressed residential properties in the sunbelt either for a personal dwelling or rental.

I just made my first offer on a condominium in Montreal. Rates are super low and high-end Montreal residential real estate is still attractive compared to cities like Toronto and Vancouver. I just paid $366 per square foot for one of the best buildings in Montreal. That’s not expensive.

I’m also interested in properties in the ravaged sunbelt. To get an idea about how bad things still are in Florida check out Zillow.com ( http://www.zillow.com/local-info/FL-home-value/r_14/ )

I’ve been harping on this for more than a year. Though the real estate market might not have bottomed yet in the United States, now is the time to start hunting for bargains.

Some real estate bears I know – and they might be right – believe the market hasn’t hit a floor yet as the economy waffles again. But the numbers say otherwise.

As a Canadian or a foreigner, U.S. real estate is cheap. Financing is now at a 40-year low. And the Canadian dollar, at about 1.05 USD, is still a great trade at this price for the Yankee buck.

If you’re planning on living somewhere in the sun, then now is the time to start looking for bargains.

Who really cares if prices decline another 10%? Isn’t that just being greedy? Prices have already crashed up to 50% in some markets.

If you plan on living in your new home or condo in Miami, Orlando or Las Vegas, or perhaps considering renting that property out for income, does it really matter what the market does over the next few years?

I don’t think it matters, unless you’re objective is to flip that property.

I’d be a buyer in places like Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Value investors buy when there’s Blood in the Streets. I’m not sure if waiting for a Massacre on Elm Street is going to happen. Prices are already way down and it’s a big buyer’s market. United States sunbelt property is the bargain of the century.

Cuffy I agree there are great deals in Florida for real estate unfortunately living on the west coast of Canada, Florida is just too far away to travel too several times a year for vacation.  I've seen several condo projects in California and Nevada that are very nice and very cheap.  Only a 2 1/2 hour flight so they would be ideal.  The one problem is that during the summer these places are rarely below 100o F, a bit too hot for someone like me who was born and raised in Canada.  Hawaii would be ideal unfortunately prices haven't dropped accordingly so I just rent a place when I vacation in Honolulu.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 14, 2010, 06:53:49 PM
Though the real estate market might not have bottomed yet in the United States, now is the time to start hunting for bargains.



It's going down another 50% until real estate becomes truly affordable. Prices are still artificially too high. There will be no recovery just a readjustment to a lower level of economic activity. America and the West have been living on credit and this is about to stop. The Sophisticates are fools.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 06:56:39 PM
Roseman is a very highly regarded Montreal Based fund manager with a decidedly Non USA bias so when he calls the USA Sunbelt (CAL to FLA) the bargain of the century I pay attention - latest reading is that Investors smell a bottom coming if not here (Still have to flush out the shadow inventory of 5 Million+ homes not REOed or on Zillow or realtytrac yet as local communities are fining the banks for violation of building ordinances to make up for lost property taxes and for not maintaining vacant/vacated homes so they are letting people go drastically delinquent and pretending there is no problem just to have a free caretaker in the homes (Delinquent Homeowners) boom times for foreclosure law firms lots of sharks - in reality we will be looking at RTC type deals next year after the midterm electionss when FDIC will be forced to rattle all the Banks and their bogus balance sheets... then you will see Million dollar ocean front condos go for mark to market prices of $50K or less - problem is with Florida so many investors who bought at peak are so far underwater that rents have collapsed and unless you buy for a pittance still hard to ROI a positive cash flow - I am starting to look in my own back yard and New England is still a 15 to 20 plus GRM whereas Ft Meyers Cape Coral is at a 5 GRM... and dropping it seems... with Most of FLA at less than a 10 GRM.

Maybe best to buy a FLA orange grove and bury your gold and silver under select trees if you can hide it from the grove workers :-X

Have some very recent info to capitalize on this bargain RE deals trend so will test and share what works and what does not if anyone wants to PM me -

Takes jingle if you want to mingle with FSUW...

Another interesting article:

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/09/09/the-naked-stimulus-why-savings-stimulate-more-than-spending/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 14, 2010, 07:05:32 PM
Roseman is a very highly regarded Montreal Based fund manager


Probably a moron who cares more about being highly regarded than telling the truth.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 07:10:30 PM
Roseman is a very highly regarded Montreal Based fund manager


Probably a moron who cares more about being highly regarded than telling the truth.

Now Maxxy - he is actually a huge gold proponent and has been for 20 years - he really is just like you. (Almost)  :biggrin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 14, 2010, 07:57:01 PM
although the real estate prices did drop in Russia by about 10 or 15% seems like they are now back to the same level as before the bubble burst. And even though there are many apartments on the market the prices seem to just stay at this very high level.
Do you guys think they are going to have the same thing happen like we have here sometine in the future, or will real estate there just keep going up?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 14, 2010, 08:18:14 PM
Roseman is a very highly regarded Montreal Based fund manager


Probably a moron who cares more about being highly regarded than telling the truth.

Now Maxxy - he is actually a huge gold proponent and has been for 20 years - he really is just like you. (Almost)  :biggrin:

So he's a KOOK? (Keeper Of Odd Knowledge)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 09:06:41 PM
Roseman is a very highly regarded Montreal Based fund manager


Probably a moron who cares more about being highly regarded than telling the truth.

Now Maxxy - he is actually a huge gold proponent and has been for 20 years - he really is just like you. (Almost)  :biggrin:

So he's a KOOK? (Keeper Of Odd Knowledge)

Or old knowledge as in old soul  :8)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 14, 2010, 09:33:43 PM
although the real estate prices did drop in Russia by about 10 or 15% seems like they are now back to the same level as before the bubble burst. And even though there are many apartments on the market the prices seem to just stay at this very high level.
Do you guys think they are going to have the same thing happen like we have here sometine in the future, or will real estate there just keep going up?

Well Moscow has by what I was told and saw up to 20 Million people in the Metro Area with a housing shortage and being as it is both the financial and political power center of all Russia it attracts career motivated people from all Russia and all the world - fueled by Hong Kong style 15% low taxes, the periodic table of elements in the ground across 13 time zones and an arbitrage on the production costs of raw and manufactured industrial materials versus EU UK and USA/NA and the fact that there will never be a Fed Reserve hyper bubble as like the USA sunbelt as there is simply far more demand than Supply and even with cranes everywhere New Modern Construction is uber costly so old Arbat like Row 6 to 10 story Apt buildings over looking the Lotte center and close to every thing and the Metro have likely corrected as low as they will after the "financial crisis" and even the Margined Billionaires who saw wealth dissolve from 30 B to 3 B are back up around $13B now and not much likely to margin on debt like before but still sizable and growing wealth by any standards. Moscow is called the City of Billionaires and almost all self made as no one inherited much beyond an education from pre-perestroika Russia.

From my perspective the USA really only has two commodities the young wealthy Russians want, NYC/Miami/Hollywood glam-luxe lifestyle and warm weather.  Not much else really beside Tech toys.

Was in the Verizon store tonight looking at all the new LG, HTC, Samsung and Moto Droids (Droid X selling very well at $199 plus plans) and jam packed with apps - and - heard two Russian accents speaking Russian on Bluetooth mics in the tax free NH/MA border store - go figure...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: skiingandrunning on September 15, 2010, 02:52:19 AM
[
Well Moscow has by what I was told and saw up to 20 Million people in the Metro Area with a housing shortage and being as it is both the financial and political power center of all Russia it attracts career motivated people from all Russia and all the world - fueled by Hong Kong style 15% low taxes, the periodic table of elements in the ground across 13 time zones and an arbitrage on the production costs of raw and manufactured industrial materials versus EU UK and USA/NA and the fact that there will never be a Fed Reserve hyper bubble as like the USA sunbelt as there is simply far more demand than Supply and even with cranes everywhere New Modern Construction is uber costly so old Arbat like Row 6 to 10 story Apt buildings over looking the Lotte center and close to every thing and the Metro have likely corrected as low as they will after the "financial crisis" and even the Margined Billionaires who saw wealth dissolve from 30 B to 3 B are back up around $13B now and not much likely to margin on debt like before but still sizable and growing wealth by any standards. Moscow is called the City of Billionaires and almost all self made as no one inherited much beyond an education from pre-perestroika Russia.


It's actually 13% (so I've been told) as Natasha mentions the high direct and indirect taxes we pay (sales, property, state income, federal income, etc.) as her income is probably only 60% of mine, but she has a whole lot more spending money.  Granted, she has a huge indirect tax due to corruption and inefficient government. 

You analysis of Moscow is not so bad (Moscow is still growing and people are still coming for the reasons you mentioned), but what will keep a lid on prices here are the still relatively low wages as Natasha works for a BIG International company so she's well paid for a working stiff in Moscow as a lot of others are struggling.  Also, you need to make just a short drive outside the city to she how stressed the rest of Russia is (this trip I was on to Vladimir and  Suzdal confirmed this as they could not even keep the street lights on for most of the city). 

On a side note, I had dinner with a couple of Investment bankers (the flaky hedge fund types you mention) here in Moscow earlier this week (they are rented guns by a Russian bank) and they mentioned property is the thing to be in now as they see a major and long term decline in the dollar and dollar based securities.

Now for a funny side note, Natasha took me to see her office the other day which is out towards Rublyovka, and after getting based by only Bentley's, Ashton Martins, and other high end cars we noticed a single Lada (Natasha said they must be lost, but I mentioned that someone needs to clean the pool which elicited laughter as she said that we must then be the gardeners as we were driving along in a Ford Focus).  Next time you are in Moscow, stop out there and spend a few minutes in a Cafe as it can be entertaining, not just for all the women who are made-up looking to catch the next billionaire.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Scandinavian79 on September 15, 2010, 03:13:17 AM
I didn't read through all the 12 pages, but I feel Peter Schiff should be mentioned in this thread, he is an expert on this subject;


Too bad he recently lost the election for republican candidate for senator in Connecticut though, this guy could probably do much to enlighten US economic politics.

His answers are probably quite similar to Celente's, allthough I think Schiff is maybe even better at explaining how the economy works and why dollarinflation or even -hyperinflation in the nearest future is inevitable.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 15, 2010, 09:22:09 AM
I didn't read through all the 12 pages, but I feel Peter Schiff should be mentioned in this thread, he is an expert on this subject;


Too bad he recently lost the election for republican candidate for senator in Connecticut though, this guy could probably do much to enlighten US economic politics.

His answers are probably quite similar to Celente's, allthough I think Schiff is maybe even better at explaining how the economy works and why dollarinflation or even -hyperinflation in the nearest future is inevitable.

I think Peter Schiff may have been mentioned. Yes too bad he lost to the wife of the WWE (Worldwide Wrestling Entertainment) owner. That says a lot about the infantile nature of the American public. I hear that Ron Paul might soon run again for President (Peter Schiff was Ron Paul's economic advisor). Too bad he doesn't stand a chance. The Left still believes in Santa Claus and being rescued by Superman. The Right is looking for a candidate that looks like a macho father figure wearing a cowboy hat and six shooter or perhaps a MILF to set America back on course. Of course the course is still the broke down wore out and played out Military Industrial Complex and throw a bone to the  Lefties' Welfare State. In other words no real change. I have heard it said that America will become to China what Canada is to the U.S. We (us Americans) will be continued to be sold down the river by the the Right and Left in the name of "Free" trade "freedom" and itty bitty tax "cuts" all the while restricting what is left of the little freedom we have left. Want to make money? Invest in companies that make products that track and control it's citizens.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 16, 2010, 11:32:54 AM
I got to give credit to Sarah Palin for endorsing Rand Paul and Christine O Donnell. Too bad she endorsed Mc Cain over the other guy.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 16, 2010, 11:55:19 AM

That is the same day Gold will fly to ...heck that could be over 6000 USD , and probably see the return to Rosevelt-like confiscation of all privatly held gold.



This time it will be different. People have no trust in the government unlike in the thirties. Gold and silver will be swapped back and forth for needed goods. They won't turn it in. Dumb guys  :) like Andrew and Turbo will wished they had some.
[/b]

Don't hold your breath on that one.  Over the last 80 years or so the real return on investments in gold is 1%.   Gold is the same as tulip bulbs were hundreds of years ago.  You are not investing in gold.  You are speculating.  There are lots of other ways to speculate as well.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 16, 2010, 12:25:07 PM
Gold is @ $1,273 per ounce already and silver @ $20.78
Great news for those of us who are holding PM but very sad for our economy because what this really means is that the Dollar is loosing it's value fast!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 16, 2010, 12:34:57 PM

That is the same day Gold will fly to ...heck that could be over 6000 USD , and probably see the return to Rosevelt-like confiscation of all privatly held gold.



This time it will be different. People have no trust in the government unlike in the thirties. Gold and silver will be swapped back and forth for needed goods. They won't turn it in. Dumb guys  :) like Andrew and Turbo will wished they had some.
[/b]

Don't hold your breath on that one.  Over the last 80 years or so the real return on investments in gold is 1%.   Gold is the same as tulip bulbs were hundreds of years ago.  You are not investing in gold.  You are speculating.  There are lots of other ways to speculate as well.   
Hi Ray,
this is prolly the first time I disagree with you. You are right, gold is not really an investment because the reality is that gold hasn't really gone up in price (relative to the goods that can be purchased with it) in a few decades. I don't have the exact numbers so I'm using these numbers just to demonstrate a point:
40 years ago you could get an average nice car for 30 1 ounce gold coins. Now you can get an average nice car for 30 1 ounce gold coins.
Same goes for real estate: it took 150 1 ounce coins to get an average home then, same as now.
I look at gold as money that does not loose it's value, whereas the dollar is worth a lot less than it did 40 or 50 years ago.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 16, 2010, 01:10:26 PM
Over the short term, lets say the last 8 years or so, gold has had a great return.  Still the cost to mine an ounce of gold is a fraction of what gold sells for today and over the longer haul gold has not been a good investment.  Gold is today, like the housing bubble was a few years ago and just as real estate crashed, gold will crash someday too.  People are drawn to large gains as gold has had, as real estate has had a few years ago and as tulip bulbs had whenever that was, I think in the 1600's.

My gold investment is limited to one $ 10.00 gold coin my dad bought me as a Christmas present when I was a teen for $ 19.95.  Too bad he didn't buy more of them.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 16, 2010, 01:14:43 PM
I looked on Wikipedia to see when the tulip bulb speculation was and it was 1637.   Below is what they say about the tulip bulb specualtion for those that don't know about it .  Don't forget I am saying gold is todays tulip bulbs.  I think those speculating in gold are ok for a while.  If I were of that mind to be in it, when it got close to 2 grand I would get out fast. 

=========================================

Tulip mania or tulipomania (Dutch names include: tulpenmanie, tulpomanie, tulpenwoede, tulpengekte and bollengekte) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for bulbs of the recently introduced tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then suddenly collapsed.[2] At the peak of tulip mania in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. It is generally considered the first recorded speculative bubble (or economic bubble),[3] although some researchers have noted that the Kipper- und Wipperzeit episode in 1619-22, a Europe-wide chain of debasement of the metal content of coins to fund warfare, featured mania-like similarities to a bubble.[4] The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble (when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values).[5]

The event was popularized in 1841 by the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, written by British journalist Charles Mackay. According to Mackay, at one point 12 acres (5 ha) of land were offered for a Semper Augustus bulb.[6] Mackay claims that many such investors were ruined by the fall in prices, and Dutch commerce suffered a severe shock. Although Mackay's book is a classic that is widely reprinted today, his account is contested. Many modern scholars believe that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described, with some arguing that the price changes may not have constituted a bubble.[7][8]

Research on the tulip mania is difficult because of the limited data from the 1630s—much of which comes from biased and anti-speculative sources.[9][10] Although these explanations are not generally accepted, some modern economists have proposed rational explanations, rather than a speculative mania, for the rise and fall in prices. For example, other flowers, such as the hyacinth, also had high prices on the flower's introduction, which then fell dramatically. The high prices may also have been driven by expectations of a parliamentary decree that contracts could be voided for a small cost—thus lowering the risk to buyers.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 16, 2010, 01:24:39 PM

My gold investment is limited to one $ 10.00 gold coin my dad bought me as a Christmas present when I was a teen for $ 19.95.  Too bad he didn't buy more of them.

You will be saying the same about yourself someday. You do not seem to have much knowledge about the fiscally insanity of government economic policies. Two years of 1.4 trillion dollar deficits and "trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see". 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 16, 2010, 01:32:34 PM
Bottom Line is most reputable portfolio allocation advisors suggest you hold 5 to 10 percent of your assets in hard currency - meaning physical Gold and Silver as Gold ETFs do not necessarily hold physical gold to back 100% of the gold shares they sell. Some hold as little as 1%!!!!!  Also known as smoke and mirrors.

Gold and silver are not an "investment" per se, do not pay interest or dividends -  really just an insurance policy to protect you from the rapacious tax and spend policies of out of control fiat currency governments and broke fractional reserve banking schemes - dooms day geld to let you buy for pennies what previously cost dollars when blood is actually running in the streets

What the smart money is doing:
 
Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros's Bubble Inflates
By Nicholas Larkin - Aug 31, 2010
Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.”

Investors added to their gold holdings through ETPs for three consecutive weeks, reflecting demand for assets typically favored in times of financial stress. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a record low of 0.4542 percent on Aug. 24 and the yen reached a 15-year high against the dollar the same day. Pacific Investment Management Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. have announced or are offering funds or traded instruments designed to guard against sudden market declines.

Swiss Reserves

Buyers accumulated almost 278 tons of gold in 2010 across 10 ETPs tracked by Bloomberg, worth $10.4 billion at this year’s average price. Total holdings are almost twice Switzerland’s official reserves of 1,040 tons, data compiled by the World Gold Council show. ETP holdings reached a record 2,078 tons July 19, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

One of the biggest buyers has been Soros Fund Management LLC, which oversees about $25 billion. George Soros, who made $1 billion breaking the Bank of England’s defense of the pound in 1992, described gold as “the ultimate asset bubble” at the World Economic Forum’s January meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” he said.

Soros Fund Management sold 341,250 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETP backed by bullion, in the second quarter, according to an Aug. 16 Securities and Exchange Commission filing. That still left a holding of 5.24 million shares, equal to almost 16 tons. Soros declined to comment on the change, through a spokesman.

Accurate Forecasters

Gold may rise as high as $1,500 next year, 21 percent more than the $1,240 traded at 1:45 p.m. in London, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts, traders and investors. Dan Brebner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in London who is the most accurate forecaster so far this year, says the metal may reach $1,550.

Bullion gained 13 percent since January, beating an 8.4 percent return on Treasuries, an 8 percent decline in the MSCI World Index of shares and the 10 percent slump in the S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials.

Investors are concerned the recovery is weakening. Sales of new U.S. homes fell to an all-time low in July, the Commerce Department said Aug. 25. The U.S. economy grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than previously calculated, the department said Aug. 27. U.S. growth will slow to 2.8 percent next year, compared with 3 percent in 2010, according to the median of as many as 69 economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Fear Another Crisis’

People “fear another crisis and so they will diversify into gold,” said Thorsten Proettel, an analyst at Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg in Stuttgart, Germany, who was also the most- accurate forecaster in the first quarter. He expects gold to trade as high as $1,350 next year. Anne-Laure Tremblay, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London whose forecast was also the best in the period, is estimating a 2011 high of $1,370.

Bullion’s four-fold rally since the end of 2000 has attracted fund managers Eric Mindich and John Paulson. Mindich’s $13 billion Eton Park Capital Management LP bought almost 6.58 million shares of the SPDR Gold Trust in the second quarter, according to an Aug. 16 SEC filing. That’s equal to about 20 tons of gold. Paulson & Co., managing $31 billion, held 31.5 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, making it the largest investor, an Aug. 16 SEC filing shows.

Astor Sells

Astor Asset Management LLC, with about $570 million of assets, once had as much as 10 percent of its holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, according to Bryan Novak, managing director of the Chicago-based company. The firm sold the stake at the end of last year for a profit and now owns silver, copper and a multicommodity ETP.

“We don’t believe we’re heading into a double-dip recession,” Novak said. “Gold carries some risk because a lot of people are piling into the trade.”

A plunge in equities may spur investors to sell their gold holdings to raise cash, he said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 14 percent since this year’s peak on April 26.

Investment demand of 1,901 tons last year exceeded jewelry consumption of 1,759 tons for the first time in three decades, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. That trend continued into the second quarter, with total demand advancing 36 percent to 1,050.3 tons, the WGC in London said Aug. 25.

Newmont Mining

Earnings at Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, may increase 47 percent to $1.93 billion in 2010, according to the mean estimate of seven analysts’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. The 16-member Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index advanced 8.7 percent since January.

Bets on gold may pay off even if economic recoveries strengthen. World growth will be 4.6 percent this year, the most since 2007, the International Monetary Fund said July 7. China, the second-biggest bullion buyer after India, will expand 10 percent in 2010, compared with 9.1 percent last year, according to the median of 24 economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

Gold imports by India this year may total 600 tons to 625 tons, compared with an estimated 480 tons to 485 tons last year, according to Anjani Sinha, chief executive officer of National Spot Exchange Ltd., the country’s biggest bourse for trading physical gold.

While growth may curb investors’ appetite for gold to protect their wealth, it may also bolster purchases of jewelry, reviving demand that fell to a 21-year low in 2009, according to Jochen Hitzfeld, an analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich and the best forecaster in the last three quarters. He’s predicting a 2011 high of $1,350.

More Bullish

Analysts are getting more bullish. Their median estimate for next year’s average gold price climbed 6.2 percent since June 16 to $1,247.50, according to 17 forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 2.6 percent gain in silver forecasts, 0.6 percent advance in platinum predictions and a 0.5 percent jump in their palladium outlook.

Gold averaged $1,166.43 since January, heading for a ninth consecutive year of higher average prices. That’s the longest streak since at least 1920.

Options traders are also betting on prices rallying. The biggest position is in call options expiring in November 2010, giving traders the right to buy the metal at $1,500 by then. The next biggest position is the call option for $2,000 expiring in November 2011, data from the Comex exchange in New York show.

“Investors’ interest is still growing and still hasn’t reached a reasonable part of their portfolio,” UniCredit’s Hitzfeld said. “Gold is still an under-owned asset, that’s perfectly clear.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 16, 2010, 02:59:54 PM

You will be saying the same about yourself someday. You do not seem to have much knowledge about the fiscally insanity of government economic policies. Two years of 1.4 trillion dollar deficits and "trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see". 

Maxx, if you think the world as we know it is going to end then perhaps gold might have some value.  Personally I think can's of soup might have more value in that scenario.   Even in the great depression the dollar still had value.  I will agree that if we continue on the course we are on with the spending and deficits there are going to be big problems.  I do think the Tea Party is evidence that the American people won't let that happen.   I think some of Washington's big wig's havent figured out that the Tea Party is not about electing Republicans who lately have not been any better than Democrats but about ousting all the cronies who think spending is the answer to everything.  The answer is to provide an environment that makes Amercian businesses healthy. 

I personally think we have big problems but just as in the 80's when interest rates and inflation were rampant we will survive this. 


“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,” said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.”


Personally I would disagree with this part.  A swift recovery will have people selling gold and putting their money where it will bring faster and bigger returns such as the stock market.   The biggest fans of gold are those who, like Maxx, feel the country is headed down the toilet.  Some day in the future people will get a good return on Real Estate as well even though the experts would not agree with this. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 16, 2010, 05:11:39 PM
I highlighted for those who like to skim

The Smoking Ruin Solution


-- Posted Wednesday, 15 September 2010

By David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research

Just last week, it was reported that the turnout for the Democratic primary was the lowest in 80 years. While the Republicans are clearly energized by their concerns about the direction the Democrats are taking the country in, the Democrats themselves seem to have decided to forgo the voting process, perhaps in favor of a refreshing nap.

No question about it, the president is in the hot seat.

While I am sure that back in 2008 Barack Obama was one happy camper about having taken the presidential prize, today one has to wonder if that victory has led him to certain bitter regrets.

His problem, the problem bedeviling the government at its highest level, is that there is actually no palatable solution to the persistent debt crisis now gripping the U.S. economy by the throat.

In fact, the only tangible solution might be best termed the “Smoking Ruin Solution.” Allow me to elucidate.

The Keynesians would take great umbrage at the idea that the government is left with no viable options at this point. The solution is clear to them – more stimulus. And this time around, no skimping! A paltry $800 billion isn’t even going to begin to get the job done. Rather, if two trillion dollars of freshly minted money is what it takes to kick the U.S. economy out of its swoon, then so be it. Hell, make it three if that’s what it takes – we can worry about the (inflationary) consequences later.

Economists who look to someone other than Keynes for guidance, have other ideas – but not many. And, as per my comments above, none that would be even remotely palatable to the man on the street. That goes double for the politicians (of both parties), who rely on the proletariat to provide them with the votes that keep them in power and in porridge.

While I don’t have the time to scratch even a square inch of the surface of all the goofy solutions economists might trot out if asked, I will attempt to briefly address, in the broadest terms, a solution that might be considered acceptable to those who skew toward the Austrian school of economic thought.

For those of you unfamiliar with the Austrian perspective, it puts a large amount of faith in the unfettered free market, and almost none at all in the ability of governments to do much more than run economies headlong into solid walls.

I have to warn you, however, that the solution I am about to propose involves no quick fix or linking hands around the fire, accompanied by happy singing. Rather, it is more akin to treating a dread disease with a very strong medicine – so strong, in fact, that should the patient survive, they would (at least for some period of time) suffer a steep degradation in the quality of life.

I say that because the only real solutions available to the country are certain to result in financial carnage and social upheaval of a most extraordinary sort. For starters…

A dime-on-the-dollar forced renegotiation with U.S. Treasury/agency debt holders. Sorry, China, Japan, et al. – push has come to shove, and it’s over the side with you.

Letting the banks that should fail, fail. Sorry, shareholders and bond holders, which now include taxpayers, but you made a bad bet. And sorry, anyone with more in your failed bank than is covered by the FDIC, you’re out of luck on the excess. Given that the FDIC is also broke, we’re not even sure about the money you thought was covered.

Turning the lights out on the U.S. empire. The U.S. spends more on maintaining overseas government operations than all the rest of the world’s nations combined. While the cost of ending our involvement in perma-wars, turning off the lights at military installations, canceling aid and subsidies to foreign governments will cause widespread pain and misery – both at home for the dismissed soldiers and overseas for our allies – doing so is likely to improve our security by dramatically reducing our boot print on the face of the globe.

We’ve got more than enough in the way of nukes to deal with any large-scale threats, and with a more streamlined national security apparatus, we’d be certain to get a lot better at spotting the odd terrorist threat before the malcontents make it to U.S. shores.

Goodbye, big government, and thanks for all the chicken. It’s been a wonderful run, with promises of fat chickens in every pot, affordable homes for all, safety nets under safety nets, universal healthcare, and an almost infinite number of regulations to make sure we’re safe in every conceivable circumstance. We hate to see you go, but go you must, because even though U.S. business labors under the second highest corporate tax rate in the world and the individuals who do pay taxes pay over half of their income, the shortfall between revenue and government expenses is at historic levels with no end in sight. And that’s just impossible to continue.
Under my solution, the size and scope of government will have to be seriously reduced, a process best started by severely limiting the ability of politicians to make new regulations and pass new taxes or mandates. With relatively little to do – as opposed to the situation today, when literally nothing is beyond the interest and reach of the federal government – a wholesale purge of the bureaucracy can be undertaken.

Yes, that would mean hundreds of thousands of freshly dismissed bureaucrats, many of them possessing no real marketable skills, hitting the employment market. But look at the bright side, the oversupply of labor willing to work for subsistence pay will cause “guest” workers to throw up their hands and head to greener pastures, leaving the former bureaucrats to clean the sewers, collect the garbage, and pick the tobacco.

Farewell, Fannie and Freddie. Nationalizing the mortgage industry was a horrible idea… an idea whose time has now expired. The loans these zombie institutions hold should be pumped out into the market at whatever the free market will pay, which won’t be much, then the doors shut.

Institute a flat tax at a level that everyone will happily pay. But that’s not fair, shout the progressives. To which I might respond, look at the facts. One of the biggest differences between America in its youth and the lands whence the citizenry came was that, in America, there were none of the entrenched classes that dog so many countries even to this day.
I can’t begin to count how many rich people I know who have lost essentially all their money due to bad investments or business decisions. Likewise, I know any number of wealthy people who started with little or nothing, but through hard work and enterprise made their mark and their money. The key to a robust economy is to make it as easy as possible for anyone to earn, and keep, the benefits of their efforts… and a reasonable flat tax goes a long way in that direction. As an added advantage, a flat tax would result in a wholesale shedding of accountants, lawyers, IRS employees, and more.

“But that will only add to unemployment,” you might fret (well, not you, but the person next to you). To which I would answer, rhetorically, by asking the question, “Is the desire to avoid such downsizing reason enough to keep the wasteful, counterproductive, and impossibly complex current tax system in place?” Hardly.

What the country needs now more than anything is transparency and the fostering of a solid foundation that allows businesses, and the entrepreneurs that start them, to do what they do best – create wealth.

Link the money to something that limits the ability of government to print the stuff up at will. While some sort of a gold standard seems logical to me, anything that anchors the currency in such a way that the Fed – or the Treasury (in the absence of the Fed… one can only hope) – is unable to grow the money supply at a faster clip than, say, population growth, or the rate at which gold can be pulled out of the ground, would do just fine.
I could give you other examples of the sort of steps and attendant mayhem that would result from slashing government and letting the free market run its course. But I’ll stop there, if for no other reason than that by now, I suspect, many readers are recoiling in horror at the inanity of the ideas just presented.

No question, these solutions would leave the economy in smoking ruins – in worse shape, even, than at the height of the Great Depression.

While the devil is invariably in the details, the argument for pulling the proverbial trigger on the smoking ruin solution is understandable – at least to me – by getting back to the positive outcomes that would result.

The overhang of unpayable government debt would be gone. Sure, the Chinese, Japanese, and Middle Eastern oil sheiks (along with anyone else who got stuck with a lot of bad debt) would be really, really unhappy with us. Again, sorry – but we’re bankrupt and pretending we’re not is just going to make things worse in the long run. Besides, in relatively short order, I suspect our trading partners would get over their losses on defaulted government bonds because…

Business would be booming. Unshackled from high taxes and excessive regulation – and freed from the fear that at any moment some change in the regulations, or even the whim of a minor bureaucrat, can knock the pins out from under a business – the U.S. would once again become the world’s preferred place to do business.

The debt bubble would deflate. As it now stands, we can’t even begin to tally all the outstanding bad loans, let alone who ultimately owns that debt. Each new bank that fails, each new equity and bond holder that goes bankrupt, and each new financial institution that folds reduces the toxic debt that will otherwise plague the economy and create uncertainty until it’s ultimately resolved. Under the scenario painted above, the deleveraging and destruction of debt would come fast and furious, allowing the nation to understand the true value of everything and to move forward from there.

Housing prices would fall to a market clearing level. People who were forced to sell their houses would be forced to sell them at a price someone is willing to pay – and that price would likely be a lot less than the current market. Tough break, and it could lead to a bankruptcy that takes down yet another bank – but so be it. It’s time to let the chips fall where they might.

The U.S. dollar would once again become trustworthy, and therefore in demand. It might even be able to retain its reserve status.
Such strong medicine would make the patient sick – and likely even cause reduced quality of life for some extended period of time. But I have to believe returning America to a foundation built on the principles of self-reliance and an individual’s right to the fruits of their labor would lead to a breathtaking groundswell of optimism and enterprise. Further, just as was the case in 1776, the U.S. would again provide a model for the rest of the world to follow, so the benefits would be global.

Of course, everything I just wrote would be considered almost criminally outrageous by most of the citizenry[/b] – and written off as the ravings of a madman by the politicians.

Which is why, in time, it will be the Keynesians’ arguments that win the day, and the next leg down will be met by a wave of newly printed funny money – a veritable flood of the stuff. Certainly not before the November elections, and certainly not before the threat of a deflationary collapse provides the cover the government needs to act – but it’s coming.

Gold still seems a safe bet to this observer.



Buy gold Ray. I'm looking out for you.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 08:05:03 AM
Quote
Maxx, if you think the world as we know it is going to end then perhaps gold might have some value.  

Since the first civilisation (Mesopotamia) on earth gold has been the store of value.

A rational being would ask "why is that" and "what makes gold so special"

Answers:
[ ] because it is nice and shiny
[ ] because people "believe" in gold.
[ ] because you cannot inflate the value of gold and is there fore stable as STORE OF LABOR!

Quote
Personally I think can's of soup might have more value in that scenario.

Sheep, soup, chickens, all fine, but they don't fit into my wallet. Gold and silver coins do.

Quote
  Even in the great depression the dollar still had value.

No rational is used here other then nationalistic sentiment, factually this situation is more akin to the Weimar Republic or current day Zimbabwe.

Quote
I do think the Tea Party is evidence that the American people won't let that happen.  

Mostly (ex) republicans, wont make a dent, and the federal government has tanks and nukes, so the outcome is: government wins!

Quote
I personally think we have big problems but just as in the 80's when interest rates and inflation were rampant we will survive this.

Survive? sure, Japan survived 2 nukes, so wtf...again your argument is Not based on facts or reason,

fact: In the 80's America had a large industrial base a far smaller national debt and a far smaller yearly deficit.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 08:16:12 AM
Gold is @ $1,273 per ounce already and silver @ $20.78
Great news for those of us who are holding PM but very sad for our economy because what this really means is that the Dollar is loosing it's value fast!

I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!


At this time, I would not buy gold, if you have it, keep it, but all your money in silver, here is why))

Silver onlike gold has industrial use, so there is more pressure on Silver to move upward.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 17, 2010, 09:05:39 AM
I have Estonian friends who escaped from the USSR in the 80s. Very bright people, economically and money savvy...they walked away from their home that they couldn't sell for 3 years. He thinks that real estate prices are going to continue to fall for another 10 maybe 15 years in the US. meanwhile they are back to Estonia and not in a rush to come back here...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 17, 2010, 12:48:19 PM
Ok, guys, go on Google and do a search for "cost to mine gold"   You will find that the average cost to mine an ounce of gold is in the $ 300.00 an ounce range.   Any price it sells for on top of that is speculation.  The price is only going up because of the speculation.  It is the same speculative frenzy that drove house prices up.   Personally, I don't see the gold bubble bursting for a while, but at some point it will.  When guys start looking at gold they bought for $ 2000.00 an ounce falling to $ 1500.00 then a week or two later going under $ 1000 and continuing to drop the selling panic will be so fast that gold will end up in the $ 400-500 an ounce range within a month of it starting down.  Personally, if I owned gold that I bought for $ 800 an ounce I would start unloading it when it hits $ 1500.00.  Somewhere between $ 1500 and 2 grand it will crash.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 12:55:53 PM
@Afterburner
Quote
Any price it sells for on top of that is speculation.

Turbo, talking to you is like talking to someone who is suffering from "cognative dissonance"
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissonance_cognitive

Since you are not interested in a discussion based on facts not answering any questions that might increase your understanding less you step up on your soapbox and start preaching Keynesianism again.

Why America is heading towards oblivion...cause to many people who can vote, have no clue!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 17, 2010, 01:17:25 PM
I agree with Turbo here.

I will also add if your owning gold than your saying your a financial idiot and you have no idea how to invest.   Compare gold from 1975 to 2010. Lowest gold was is $50 to current price. Not that great of return as stock market has out performed that.  Only a couple years was it under $300 in those 35 years.  So 4 times investment unless you bought all time low and sol all time high.  Very low return.  Dow Jones has grown more than gold even with the crash.

Gold is for people who have no clue about the market and is safe when in the $300 to $600 range.  When you buy gold over this amount your taking on risk.

Also a weak dollar is good for creating jobs and selling USA  manufactured goods globally. 

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 01:21:33 PM
Quote
Also a weak dollar is good for creating jobs and selling USA  manufactured goods globally. 

Pain can make people smarter so I guess it is not as bad as it should be
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 17, 2010, 01:34:37 PM

Turbo, talking to you is like talking to someone who is suffering from "cognative dissonance"


I tend to disagree JC.   Trying to convince me of something I don't believe in is like beating your head against a wall, but my facts are correct. 

I didn't tell you what the cost to mine gold is, I told you how to find out for yourself.

So what does gold have to give it value.   It's pretty, so are tulips and look where that got the speculators in 1637.  It conducts electricity, so does copper and copper is much cheaper.  The only thing that makes gold worth $ 1200-1300 an ounce is all the people who think they will get rich on it.  Some will, but many will ride the ship up and then ride it back down.   Kievstar is right.  Gold is worth buying at $ 300-600 an ounce.   It is worth buying when the economy is booming and the price is down.     The key to wise investing is to buy low and sell high.  Anyone who thinks $ 1200.00 - $ 1300.00 an ounce is cheap for something that costs $ 300.00 to make seems to me a little foolish.

Mass hysteria is a factor in many investment things.   When stocks are cheap, everyone is afraid to invest.  When they get sky high people pile into the market.   Many years ago the GF I had at the time got interested in the stock market.  She saw one stock I had bought for $ 4.25 a share and sold for $ 26.00 a share and told me she wanted to buy it because I had done so well with it.   I thought she was nuts.  (actually she was anyway but that's another story)  So she bought it at $ 26.00 a share and lost most of her money.  When I thought it was cheap, I bought it.  When I thought it was high, I sold it.  Gold is not cheap.  It may run up more before it starts down, but it will come down.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 01:38:29 PM
Quote
So what does gold have to give it value.

Here it comes,

Quote
It's pretty,

Game over dude!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 01:42:49 PM
Quote
  Trying to convince me of something I don't believe in is

Economics is not a cargo cult science, but a true science.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 17, 2010, 01:59:19 PM
Quote
So what does gold have to give it value.

Here it comes,

Quote
It's pretty,

Game over dude!

I guess lots of pretty things have value.   Gold, Roses, Russian Women.   Personally I never looked at gold as all that pretty. 


Economics is not a cargo cult science, but a true science.


I have to think about that one a little.  I guess in science we have "theories" about how the universe was formed and in Economics we have "theories" about how to fix the economy but I have more faith in the big bang theory than I do in the econimists ideas of how to fix the economy. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 02:04:39 PM
Sigh,

Let me give you some insight into how science works

Theories explain observable facts, that doesnt make the theory= "the truth" because the instruments have finite accuracy. The more accurate the instruments, the more accurate the observation and measurements of facts, that is why theories change, because we "see" new facts that is in contradiction with existing thought.

Economics:

With economics (with the exception of the Austrian school) it is more like this



 :'( :'( :'(  hitting your head against the same wall over and over
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 17, 2010, 02:42:39 PM
I hate to say it but there are small fortunes to be made picking up the pieces of others shattered lives now...

Everyone told me to buy buy buy in 2007 and I drove around Nashua, Merrimack and Hudson New Hampshire - the only state rated in the Top 10 Business Climates (PM me I have the PDF report if interested) in the NE USA - NY and NJ rated 48 and 49 if I recall correctly and MA around 40 - NH is Number 7 and we have an unemployment rate 3 points below MA 8.8%.  I could see problems and kept my powder dry.

Our state directory of manufacturers is over 3,000 companies.

Yet there is over 3,000,000 sq ft vacant in old Mill, Industrial Park and Office space and that is not including the cities of Manchester and Concord or Rochester.  The best rental neighborhoods (owner occupied 1, 2, 3, and 4 families which you could only get into via the local church networking to the owners all now have permanent for rent signs.

And yet the bubble burst at a AFI to Home Price ratio of 4 here in NH - was 13 in San Diego and over 10 in most FL and other Sunbelt locations.

Bottom line is Realtytrac reported last night that the banks are sitting on over 900,000 REOs and only a third are on the market ostensibly to "keep the market from panicking"

WTF - the fact that the real Shadow inventory according to shadow stats may be 5 Million homes going under with 900,000 REOs right now shows that both the major parties are going into the midterms petrified at what may happen knowing full well the FDIC will have to put several hundred more banks into the grinder to be absorbed by healthy banks - but wait with 5 Million shadow inventory the sad fact is all the banks or institutions holding  mortgages will see the market value of their "assets" plummet after the elections and the only thing that will work is another RTC which will sell homes to anyone willing to paint and rent them at Detroit style home prices.  So really there are no healthy banks and they will be dumping REOs in the vain hope of saving their banks and jobs - Fannie and Freddie are cooked and Credit Cards are staying at 30% for almost all small business owners for the foreseeable future.

The Sunbelt home values are really cooked and the diversified economies like New England or Texas that never went over 4 times the average family income to average home value will survive but just about everyone who bought at the peak will be tempted to strategically default and 2011 is going to be a time of blood running in the streets and incredible opportunities to redeploy housing at mark to market values (Very steep discounts).

So Gold and Silver will surely not correct any time soon and money is to be made in the carnage.  The politicians are clearly manipulating the banks and markets to keep the excess shadow home inventory off the market and not have 5 Million more ultra pissed off angry new TEA party voters before election day.  





Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 17, 2010, 02:58:00 PM
I hate to say it but there are small fortunes to be made picking up the pieces of others shattered lives now...

Everyone told me to buy buy buy in 2007 and I drove around Nashua, Merrimack and Hudson New Hampshire - the only state rated in the Top 10 Business Climates (PM me I have the PDF report if interested) in the NE USA - NY and NJ rated 48 and 49 if I recall correctly and MA around 40 - NH is Number 7 and we have an unemployment rate 3 points below MA 8.8%.  I could see problems and kept my powder dry.

Our state directory of manufacturers is over 3,000 companies.

Yet there is over 3,000,000 sq ft vacant in old Mill, Industrial Park and Office space and that is not including the cities of Manchester and Concord or Rochester.  The best rental neighborhoods (owner occupied 1, 2, 3, and 4 families which you could only get into via the local church networking to the owners all now have permanent for rent signs.

And yet the bubble burst at a AFI to Home Price ratio of 4 here in NH - was 13 in San Diego and over 10 in most FL and other Sunbelt locations.

Bottom line is Realtytrac reported last night that the banks are sitting on over 900,000 REOs and only a third are on the market ostensibly to "keep the market from panicking"

WTF - the fact that the real Shadow inventory according to shadow stats may be 5 Million homes going under with 900,000 REOs right now shows that both the major parties are going into the midterms petrified at what may happen knowing full well the FDIC will have to put several hundred more banks into the grinder to be absorbed by healthy banks - but wait with 5 Million shadow inventory the sad fact is all the banks or institutions holding  mortgages will see the market value of their "assets" plummet after the elections and the only thing that will work is another RTC which will sell homes to anyone willing to paint and rent them at Detroit style home prices.  So really there are no healthy banks and they will be dumping REOs in the vain hope of saving their banks and jobs - Fannie and Freddie are cooked and Credit Cards are staying at 30% for almost all small business owners for the foreseeable future.

The Sunbelt home values are really cooked and the diversified economies like New England or Texas that never went over 4 times the average family income to average home value will survive but just about everyone who bought at the peak will be tempted to strategically default and 2011 is going to be a time of blood running in the streets and incredible opportunities to redeploy housing at mark to market values (Very steep discounts).

So Gold and Silver will surely not correct any time soon and money is to be made in the carnage.  The politicians are clearly manipulating the banks and markets to keep the excess shadow home inventory off the market and not have 5 Million more ultra pissed off angry new TEA party voters before election day.  


Only a month and a half to go till mid term elections.  After Nov. 2 the US government can give us the bad news that they have been suppressing till after the elections.  Maybe they can wait till after Christmas.       
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 17, 2010, 03:05:11 PM
Sigh,

Let me give you some insight into how science works


JC, I have a wife in college and get to spend my evenings helping her with studies which include what theories are and how they are proved.   If I changed my hat from assistant student to teacher and was to grade your definition of "how science works" I would be generous to give you a D.  

Cufflinks,  Nice post and very interesting.   I agree with what you are saying.  Personally I think the real estate market is in for a long hard struggle but I don't see the prices dropping as much in the future as they have in the recent past.   In a few weeks I am putting a house up for sale and I don't look forward to how long it will take to sell or what I will realize from the sale but do plan to buy another when it sells and hopefully can find a bargain.

I also agree that gold and siliver will not correct anytime soon but do think they will correct sometime.  People will make a lot of money and some will lose a lot.  With retail businesses, location is everything.  With investing or speculating, timing is everything.

WestCoast, good post.  I think the cronies in Washington always try to maniplate things around the elections but right now they are probably doing it more than ever.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 03:11:28 PM
Quote
If I changed my hat from assistant student to teacher and was to grade your definition of "how science works" I would be generous to give you a D.   

Your poor wife((
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 17, 2010, 03:11:40 PM
Sigh,

Let me give you some insight into how science works

Theories explain observable facts, that doesnt make the theory= "the truth" because the instruments have finite accuracy. The more accurate the instruments, the more accurate the observation and measurements of facts, that is why theories change, because we "see" new facts that is in contradiction with existing thought.

Economics:

With economics (with the exception of the Austrian school) it is more like this



 :'( :'( :'(  hitting your head against the same wall over and over

JC it is interesting that someone like you would be from the Austrian School of Economics.  Your background is in pure mathematics yet Austrians reject that mathematics can adequately replicate complex human actions.  Austrians favour the use of logical deduction and tend to avoid mathematics.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 03:19:53 PM
Quote
JC it is interesting that someone like you would be from the Austrian School of Economics.

Because...

Quote
Your background is in pure mathematics yet Austrians reject that mathematics can adequately replicate complex human actions.

And they are correct, mathematics cannot solve non linear systems analytically, because they are not based on causality. Every freshman in mathematics knows this.

Quote
Austrians favour the use of logical deduction and tend to avoid mathematics.

 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Mathematics is the application of rigorous logic!

Most Keynesian economists (95%) are not mathematicans!

Most "climatologists" tend not to be phycisist, (Like the head of the IPCC,he is a railroad engineer from India   :ROFL: )

Oh brother, well it does explain why you are Kenesyan,  all mathematicians with an advanced degree are Austrians. Not all mathematicians are honest people who think stealing is wrong, but that is another story.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 17, 2010, 03:31:23 PM

Your poor wife((

Finally we agree on something JC.   Fortunately she has enough brains for the both of us and does quite well in school despite my help.   She hasn't suggested speculating in gold however.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 03:35:08 PM
Quote
She hasn't suggested speculating in gold however.

Your skull is real thick, again for the xxx time... I do not speculate in gold. <== please repeat 10x so your memory retains it.

Maybe you can take my previous multiple choice question and show it to your sudent wife!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 17, 2010, 03:46:41 PM
Quote
JC it is interesting that someone like you would be from the Austrian School of Economics.

Because...

Quote
Your background is in pure mathematics yet Austrians reject that mathematics can adequately replicate complex human actions.

And they are correct, mathematics cannot solve non linear systems analytically, because they are not based on causality. Every freshman in mathematics knows this.

Quote
Austrians favour the use of logical deduction and tend to avoid mathematics.

 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Mathematics is the application of rigorous logic!

Most Keynesian economists (95%) are not mathematicans!

Most "climatologists" tend not to be phycisist, (Like the head of the IPCC,he is a railroad engineer from India   :ROFL: )

Oh brother, well it does explain why you are Kenesyan,  all mathematicians with an advanced degree are Austrians. Not all mathematicians are honest people who think stealing is wrong, but that is another story.



Once again statements with no references to back them up.  I seriously doubt that all mathematicians with graduate degrees are Austrians or most Keynesians are not mathematicians.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2010, 04:05:23 PM
Quote
Once again statements with no references to back them up.

So, Mathematics is not an application of rigorous logic? I did not know I was talking to an expert on this matter...:ROFL:

I am not going to give you a course (in math) this time.

Quote
I seriously doubt that all mathematicians with graduate degrees are Austrians

Scientist tend not to believe in voodoo, or voodoo economics.

Then again, scientist are human also, so some might whore themselves for the proverbial 40 silver pieces and support the current delusional state of affairs.

Murray Rothbard calls this "the lies of the saints" and it is nothing new.
There will always be a class of educated intellectuals supporting the powers that be.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on September 17, 2010, 10:19:59 PM
I will also add if your owning gold than your saying your a financial idiot and you have no idea how to invest.   Compare gold from 1975 to 2010. Lowest gold was is $50 to current price. Not that great of return as stock market has out performed that.  Only a couple years was it under $300 in those 35 years.  So 4 times investment unless you bought all time low and sol all time high.  Very low return.  Dow Jones has grown more than gold even with the crash.

Gold is for people who have no clue about the market and is safe when in the $300 to $600 range.  When you buy gold over this amount your taking on risk.

Also a weak dollar is good for creating jobs and selling USA  manufactured goods globally. 


Come on...  Get a clue!...   :whistle:   Are you calling us precious metal investors idiots for investing in gold???  Are you calling George Soros idiot for his betting on gold?  I want to thank you for that.  I know that I'm doing it right.   

Just looked at my investment portfolio consisting of precious metal mining companies today...  Guess what?  I am earning a 10% Overall Return on my investments in gold/silver mining companies...  Are we that idiot for investing in gold/silver??   

As for Physical Gold/silver bullions, it is true that it is not an investment since it does not earn any interests or dividends... However, it is really used as a store of value.... It is more like holding cash in your pocket... 

Lets start with a definition of money. One definition is that money is any article or substance used as a medium of exchange, a unit of measure, and most importantly a storehouse of wealth.

This should NOT be confused with paper currency, which over time LOSES its value because the government keeps printing more of it. Money has to be a storehouse of wealth, which paper currency is clearly not...

 Over time currency has taken many forms, from soap chips, to shells, to pieces of iron, beads, bits of glass, and today, paper, or electronic currency.

Some important requirements of currency:

    *     Durable
    *     Portable
    *     Divisible
    *     Scarce

Almost all great societies throughout human history at some point adopted gold and silver coinage as its form of money/currency because it met all of the above requirements, but most important of all, people could trust in gold in silver, because it has intrinsic value due to its rarity, and you cant just conjure it up out of thin air.  (Remember the classical economic theory: Law vs demand??)

It takes time, effort, and great capital expense to force the earth to yield us its natural treasures of gold and silver, and it is for this very reason that gold and silver retain value over time, becoming a "storehouse" of value, and meeting the definition of true money.

Why is this important? Because if it is possible to by-pass the scarcity requirement of currency (kind of like what your government does every time it prints more of it), then distinct advantages of control of economy and labor go to those who wield the power to create it.

If you study history you will see that many great societies, economies, and nations have risen and fell in tandem with the trust and widespread use of their currency (sound familiar?).

Many of these societies have followed a recurring pattern that looks something like this:

    * Create Wealth Through Labor
    * Debase The Currency
    * Inflate The Currency
    * Currency Crashes

This is not speculation. History has shown that many great economies follow this exact pattern, and without fail once an economy reaches the inflation stage it was only a matter of time before what was built around an inflated currency would come crashing down....

So... Is USA an exemption from this pattern?  It is clearly that it is not!  It is already on the way to a massive trainwreck.  It will not be pretty at all.  :trainwreck:

Our economy is broken already.  It is way way way beyond repairs and there is already at a point of no return.   :dh:   There is no real change in the US government at all.  Still the same ol' musical choir game over and over.  Our budget deficits and national debt just get bigger and bigger and bigger...   :coffeeread:   

It is just a matter of time when our American economy and society will collapse...  I don't know when, but it is gonna happen for sure.  Get ready for this!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 18, 2010, 04:28:50 AM

Come on...  Get a clue!...   :whistle:   Are you calling us precious metal investors idiots for investing in gold???  Are you calling George Soros idiot for his betting on gold?  I want to thank you for that.  I know that I'm doing it right.   

It is just a matter of time when our American economy and society will collapse...  I don't know when, but it is gonna happen for sure.  Get ready for this!

No Khelkhov, we are not calling all precious metal investors idiots, just some of them.  I might consider putting George in that class. 

By the way, if I were a teacher grading your post I would give it an A+.  The only part I mght not totally and completly agree with is the part about the American economy collapsing.  Of course it will, maybe this year or maybe 3000 years from now but as far as the short term I will agree there is a lot of risk but I think it can be averted yet.   If not, then perhaps we can learn from the lesson and pick up the pieces and move forward a lot broker and a little smarter.

Someone who takes 5% to 10% of his investements, and carefully buys gold when the price is down is not an idiot.   Someone who puts every penny of his savings, who mortgages his house for money to buy gold is an idiot.   Someone who invests heavily right now with the big runup that has occured in gold is an idiot.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 18, 2010, 04:36:03 AM
Quote
She hasn't suggested speculating in gold however.

Your skull is real thick, again for the xxx time... I do not speculate in gold. <== please repeat 10x so your memory retains it.

Maybe you can take my previous multiple choice question and show it to your sudent wife!

Sorry JC, but I am a slow repeater.  I will start reapeating that you don't speculate in gold as soon as I get done repeating your previous post that you do speculate in gold. (quoted below)







I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!

 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 18, 2010, 04:40:37 AM
Ah, by the way JC,  I am gathering from the posts here that you are a mathmetician.  Cool, however

Quote
I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!

Bought at $ 860.00   Currently at $ 1275.00 or so,  JC, double your money would not be until $ 1720.00.   If you want I can send you the times tables like I learned in school.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 18, 2010, 07:22:03 AM

More and more countries view gold as metal and not currency.  Its very risky just like diamonds and the stock market longterm has grown a lot more.  Gold is a good buy less than $600 usd.  Look at it longterm prices.  Past 40 years it is usually under $600 usd.  Also it was high 30 years ago and crashed.  Right now many investment companies are hyping gold on TV, radio, etc but there positions are it crashing.  They want to hype up prices and when it goes back down to normal levels they make a windfall.  They did the same thing with oil and even held oil in tankers to drive up prices. 

Speaking of oil. 

I like my Canadian oil sand plays which pay a 75% dividend each year right now as the stock price rose last 3 years.  Plus the stock price more than doubled.  That is why gold is not a great investment unless your going to day trade it.  Buying it over $700 usd better know when to get out.   A good investment should pay 100% return within 1.5 years.  Than 100% a year. 

Spend some time researching Brazil.  The oil they found off the coast is more than the Gulf of Mexico.  Brazil has few local companies but requires local companies by law to get in the game.  They just had their oil conference this past week.  This will be harder research but there are going to be people who invest 10,000 usd and make several million next 5 years.  Total investment by all companies to get at the oil is over 2 trillion usd.  They need help on the capital.  Your not going to just google the internet and find out who to play.  Your going to really need to study.  Not going to find it on FOX, CNN, Bloomberg. 

You can day trade gold and make money.  But if you hold it to long your going to be shaking your head. 

 Also, if the US goes bankrupt the entire world does as well.  China, Japan, India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil so tied into USA they will get dragged down as well.  Europe is tied into all these countries than they get dragged down.  USA biggest military weapon is their economy. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 18, 2010, 09:44:54 AM
Ah, by the way JC,  I am gathering from the posts here that you are a mathmetician.  Cool, however

Quote
I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!

Bought at $ 860.00  Currently at $ 1275.00 or so,  JC, double your money would not be until $ 1720.00.  If you want I can send you the times tables like I learned in school.

Your kinda slow at your age I guess, double is in "quotes", or did your retina just skipped that character glyph?

 860 usd, that was when 1 euro was 1.6 usd
(or did you also forget I live in France), meaning I bought it for  537 euros.

Now it is at 1275, that is (at current 1.30 exchange rate, yesterday 1.28 )  980 euros

from 537 euro => 980 euros,
I would call it roughly "doubling" in my book. Notice i used the quotes again , as the factuality means , my money didnt get cut in half by inflation (Thanks to Greece and other PIGS countries)

It is better you leave the calculus to the people who have some understanding of it. Or maybe your wife can school you.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 18, 2010, 09:46:30 AM
Quote
I can send you the times tables like I learned in school.
I see you learned calculus and economics from the central bank of Zimbabwe
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 18, 2010, 10:01:25 AM
kievstar
Quote
Also, if the US goes bankrupt the entire world does as well.  China, Japan, India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil so tied into USA they will get dragged down as well.

If the world stops sponsoring the USA debt addiction you will see the central banks of these governments investing into assets that let THEIR economy grow instead of subsidizing US medicare or the US military apparatus. 

The US will sink, the rest of the world would bounce up like a beachball held to long under water.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 18, 2010, 10:17:54 AM
Ah, by the way JC,  I am gathering from the posts here that you are a mathmetician.  Cool, however

Quote
I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!

Bought at $ 860.00   Currently at $ 1275.00 or so,  JC, double your money would not be until $ 1720.00.   If you want I can send you the times tables like I learned in school.


1) I did not double my money
2) I prevented my savings from being halved!

Quote
By the way, if I were a teacher grading your post I would give it an A+. 

What arrogance, Yeah if you actaully had an eduction, you could grade other people.

Back on topc;
You just explicitly stated and debated Maxx that gold had value because "it was shiny and pretty like Tulips".
Now you agree it meets the condition for a store of wealth, against government printing.

Some people have a random generator between the ears.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 18, 2010, 01:07:52 PM
JC, I get it, you and Turbo disagree, but do you have to be so mean and nasty to him?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on September 18, 2010, 02:51:25 PM
JC,

Ed is correct in pointing out that MANY of your posts come over on the heavy side (my words/description not his). We understand and some of us even agree with your view point. Some think you are as ugly as a Muslim fundamentalist. There are others here who perhaps are naive or benign but (they) we are not cynical or negative towards the rest of humanity.

This is a very UGLY part of some of your posts.

Not everyone is going to agree - fortunately.

Accept different points of views with French aplomb and move on.

Share you considerable wisdom and insight. Live with the difference of opinions. Think how boring the world would be if we only liked the Pre-Impressionists and dammed the Ecole de Paris.

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 18, 2010, 07:25:30 PM
JC, I get it, you and Turbo disagree, but do you have to be so mean and nasty to him?

I might have used the nuclear option on the sarcasm mode, true,  :hidechair:

before you can disagree one must understand what you are disagreeing with, It is the latter that is sevearly lacking in this case...Anyway, I will try and exercise more patience in explaining,

@AvHB,

Ed was specifically talking about my conversation with Turbo

Well the thing is we are (at least I am) not free in choosing my extended family, hence I am suffering (well not so much as I am pretty skilled in mitigating the effects of voters who  :censored:ed up choosing for the wrong policy).  So a bad "opinion" does affect me considerably. As soon as I find a way immunizing myself from economic idiocy, that is the time and date you will find me enjoying the burning of Rome with a glass of wine!

They reap what they sow!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on September 18, 2010, 09:11:29 PM

More and more countries view gold as metal and not currency.  Its very risky just like diamonds and the stock market longterm has grown a lot more.  Gold is a good buy less than $600 usd.  Look at it longterm prices.  Past 40 years it is usually under $600 usd.  Also it was high 30 years ago and crashed.  Right now many investment companies are hyping gold on TV, radio, etc but there positions are it crashing.  They want to hype up prices and when it goes back down to normal levels they make a windfall.  They did the same thing with oil and even held oil in tankers to drive up prices. 

Obviously, we do not see eye to eye on those beautiful and shiny metals...  It is apparent that you are looking at gold from a pure investment point of view, whereas I am looking at gold from a "cash" point of view.  I simply buy gold and silver bullions to preserve or increase my purchasing power... 

Sure, gold is viewed as metal... However, I am betting on my money that gold/silver are going to be viewed as currency down the road.  It would happen when the whole fiat currency becomes completely worthless due to excessive government printing or hyperinflation.  Free market wants gold/silver as a medium of exchange...

I have absolutely no desire to hold all of those funny looking "US Dollar" that screams "Federal Reserve Note".  It is really nothing more than a bank IOU backed by debt or government's promissory notes.  US Dollar is really nothing more than a debt-backed currency.  Why in the world would I want to hold a bank liability? 

What can I get when I want to redeem this funny looking "Federal Reserve Note"?  NOTHING!!!  Why in the world would I want to work hard to earn just this piece of paper that is backed by nothing but debt??   

All I want is honest money, where the value of the medium of exchange cannot be manipulated at will, and is not born from or backed by a debt-based system...  I believe that Gold/silver-backed money is the best solution for the honest monetary system...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 18, 2010, 10:13:56 PM
some smart people I know believe that we are heading toward the greatest depression this country has ever seen and hyperinflation that's gonna make "The great depression" look like a walk in the park. They say that at this point the train is a "runaway" and can't be stopped.   If when this happens it is very likely that precious metals will become "money". $1.00 is probably gonna be worth 1 ruble or less.
I love this country and it saddens me beyond words to watch politicians  (both Democrats and Republicans) destroying it.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 18, 2010, 10:17:10 PM

More and more countries view gold as metal and not currency.  Its very risky just like diamonds and the stock market longterm has grown a lot more.  Gold is a good buy less than $600 usd.  Look at it longterm prices.  Past 40 years it is usually under $600 usd.  Also it was high 30 years ago and crashed.  Right now many investment companies are hyping gold on TV, radio, etc but there positions are it crashing.  They want to hype up prices and when it goes back down to normal levels they make a windfall.  They did the same thing with oil and even held oil in tankers to drive up prices. 

Obviously, we do not see eye to eye on those beautiful and shiny metals...  It is apparent that you are looking at gold from a pure investment point of view, whereas I am looking at gold from a "cash" point of view.  I simply buy gold and silver bullions to preserve or increase my purchasing power... 

Sure, gold is viewed as metal... However, I am betting on my money that gold/silver are going to be viewed as currency down the road.  It would happen when the whole fiat currency becomes completely worthless due to excessive government printing or hyperinflation.  Free market wants gold/silver as a medium of exchange...

I have absolutely no desire to hold all of those funny looking "US Dollar" that screams "Federal Reserve Note".  It is really nothing more than a bank IOU backed by debt or government's promissory notes.  US Dollar is really nothing more than a debt-backed currency.  Why in the world would I want to hold a bank liability? 

What can I get when I want to redeem this funny looking "Federal Reserve Note"?  NOTHING!!!  Why in the world would I want to work hard to earn just this piece of paper that is backed by nothing but debt??   

All I want is honest money, where the value of the medium of exchange cannot be manipulated at will, and is not born from or backed by a debt-based system...  I believe that Gold/silver-backed money is the best solution for the honest monetary system...

khelkhov do you have any idea how many countries are currently using the gold/silver backed monetary system? In the G7 countries, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States, none.  In the G20 countries:
1. Argentina
2. Australia
3. Brazil
4. Canada
5. China
6. France
7. Germany
8. India
9. Indonesia
10. Italy
11. Japan
12. Mexico
13. Russia
14. Saudi Arabia
15. South Africa
16. South Korea
17. Turkey
18. United Kingdom
19. United States of America
20. European Union
again none of these countries use the gold standard.   If there are any countries in the world left on the gold standard they are the smaller countries.  Since the world's largest countries are all off the gold standard it seems impossible that the US or the EU countries would return to the gold standard.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 19, 2010, 12:25:05 PM
some smart people I know believe that we are heading toward the greatest depression this country has ever seen and hyperinflation that's gonna make "The great depression" look like a walk in the park. They say that at this point the train is a "runaway" and can't be stopped.   If when this happens it is very likely that precious metals will become "money". $1.00 is probably gonna be worth 1 ruble or less.
I love this country and it saddens me beyond words to watch politicians  (both Democrats and Republicans) destroying it.

So, Eduard, it seems like the question may not be so much "Is gold a good investment?", as it is "Is the economy of the USA going to crash worse than it ever has in history?"

Personally, I don't believe it will.  I am not saying that the worst might not be ahead but I don't think it is broken beyond repair YET.   They have really done a lot of damage and with the idiots we have running this country I can't totally rule that out as my two cents worth. 

If we do end up with something far worse than the great depression then those who bought gold at any price may have been the smart ones.   Purely as an investment, I do think gold is overpriced now.   One of the things that makes me very leary of gold is that a few years ago if you watched tv or turned on your radio, all you heard was, refinance your house now.  We can give you 110% of what it is worth so you can take that big vacation.   Well, that didn't get people very far for very long.   Now when you turn it on all you hear is buy gold, it's going to go to $ 2000.00 an ounce and you will be rich.  One thing for sure, those running those ads are making money and those mining gold are making money.  As far as those buying at $ 1275.00 an ounce, if the economy turns around, I belive most will lose money.  Of course if it crashes they may be one of the few with something of value.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 19, 2010, 12:48:45 PM
Ray, how do you see this economy recovering considering all the problems we are facing? Do you have a plan, or is this just strictly based on faith? I see things getting worse and worse all around me, more people loosing work, real estate pricing continuing to collapse and as much as I am an optimist I just don't see the light at the end of the tunnel right now.
And Ray, I don't look at gold/silver as investment. I look at it as the way to preseve the money that I have from becoming worthless.
Haven't you noticed how everything is getting more and more expensive? It's not actually. It's the dollar's buying power going down. As I wrote in one of my previous posts the price of goods relative to gold is still the same as it was 40 or 50 years ago.  You could buy a new car then for 30 1 ounce coins, you can buy one now for the same 30 coins. same goes for real estate and all the staples. What does this tell us? Even though we are off the gold standart officially, in reality gold is in assence the only real money that doesn't loose it's value rhroughout the years.
Ray, I'm not a scholar of this stuff and not an economist or a mathematician, but I do like to listen to people who know more than I do, and then come to my own conclusions using my common sense. Why do you think Soros has 9% of his money in gold? Sure, he's gonna get out in time, before the buble bursts but my feeling it will accur somewhere way past the time when gold hits the $3000 mark.

Also you are thinking of buying real estate, so was I, but all indications are that now is not the time yet. I'd wait to see what happens when this other million foreclosures hits the market sometime next year. Like Mike says, best to wait till blood runs on the streets to buy for pennies on a dollar. Although there are many great deals out there right now, my feeling is that by the middle of next year all those properties are going to be worth 1/3 to 5/10 less than what they are listed for now. Let's wait a while and then you come out to FL and we go hunting together, what do you think?   tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 19, 2010, 01:16:53 PM
Maybe part of it is faith Eduard.   I have seen more recessions and serious problems with the economy than most of those here.   When I was born the great depression was recent history.  I watched Carter destroy the economy in one day.  I went through times when the economy put the companies I made 85% of my income from out of business.   One other thing to that might impact our views is that you are in an aread where real estate boomed and then busted.  Around here we never boomed and I can't say we have really busted.   In a couple of weeks I will be putting a house up for sale.  I exect it to take 6 months to sell and I expect to get 10% -15% less then I could of a few years ago but where you are most anyone with a house for sale would love to get 10-15% less than they could have at the peak.

There are still a lot of people out there with money and a lot of people who do still have their job.  I do think layoffs are close to the bottom but I don't see job growth being what it needs to be for quite some time.   One other thing about all the unemployment.   Many of those who say they can't find a job are lying.  They can find a job, it just won't pay what they want to make and they get enough on unemployement that they are better off not taking a lower paying job. 

If Obama turns out to be a two term president and Democrats retain control of the house and senate, we are probably done for.  Many of the Republicans are not much better than the Democrats but I do think the Tea Party movement is a good thing and may provide a wake up call for the morons who run our country.   Personally, I would love to buy a new mansion, a Rolls, and a private plane, but I am smart enough to know I need to stay with an affordable house, my pickup and flying coach.   The goverment needs to realize we can't afford everything we could posibly want and at this stage they don't seem to.   We need less government spending, fewer regulations and lower taxes.  You can't spend your way to prosperity but if they reduce the government burden on business so we can be efficient and compete it will go a long way to fixing what is wrong. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 19, 2010, 02:28:31 PM
kievstar
Quote
More and more countries view gold as metal and not currency.

Excuse me?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125722876971624729.html

India Buys 200 Tons of IMF's Gold Allotment Move Seen as Effort to Diversify Reserves Away From the Dollar

Quote
NEW DELHI -- India's central bank bought 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund last month, in the first major move by a major central bank to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves.

Analysts said the move is potentially bullish for gold, but it is by no means the start of a significant shift away from U.S. dollar holdings. The Reserve Bank of India said in a statement that the move was part of its effort to manage its foreign-exchange reserves.


If the central bank of India (for that matter other central banks) stop acting like a vacuum cleaner sucking up the extra USD the FED prints , what do you think is going to happen with the value of the dollar.
 
I think the US constitution prevents the issue of currency not backed by gold or silver, but hey, since when do republicans and democrats NOT wipe their ass off with that (GW Bush quote) "just piece of paper"?



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 19, 2010, 02:35:04 PM
Turbo:
Quote
Maybe part of it is faith Eduard.

Faith? Change we can believe in.

Turbo:
Quote
I do think layoffs are close to the bottom

Really? so the marxist policy of Statist central planning , bail out and economic intervention did work?

Turbo:
Quote
If Obama turns out to be a two term president and Democrats retain control of the house and senate, we are probably done for.

True, just look at the track record of Republicans, all I see is real economic growth instead of the pyramid schemes (aka bubbles) we are so familiar with!

Turbo:
Quote
The goverment needs to realize we can't afford everything we could posibly want and at this stage they don't seem to. 

Dont worry, when the Chinese, Japanese, Saudi's, Indians, Brazilians decide to stop picking your cotton for free, its pretty much "game over"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 20, 2010, 04:21:15 AM
Turbo:
Quote
Maybe part of it is faith Eduard.

Faith? Change we can believe in.


There definately needs to be change.  The midterm elections are getting close and I think we can make our wild guesses about the future with a little more accuracy then.  Hopefully it will be the first step that is needed, and will help us survive the next two years until we can make the big change.

Turbo:
Quote
I do think layoffs are close to the bottom

Really? so the marxist policy of Statist central planning , bail out and economic intervention did work?


I don't think it was so much the bail outs and stimulus as just those who needed to cut costs by laying off thier workers have done so.   Those who couldn't compete and had to close thier doors have done so.   Those who are left seem to have reached the point where they are most likely to survive and a few are even prospering because of less competition.


Turbo:
Quote
If Obama turns out to be a two term president and Democrats retain control of the house and senate, we are probably done for.

True, just look at the track record of Republicans, all I see is real economic growth instead of the pyramid schemes (aka bubbles) we are so familiar with!


The track record of Republicans is far better than the Democrats as far as providing an environment that is good for business.  There are always exceptions.   Carter was probably the worst President of the last half of the century.   GW Bush to me would be the exception.  I think his ideas about spending were more like a Democrat.   Clinton would be an exception for the good side.  I won't say he was more like a Republican but he did have some common sense.   

Throughout history we have had good leadership and bad leadership but historically when
the darkest days are here the right leader has risen at the right time.  We need that to happen again but I see signs with the Tea Party movement that it may.


Turbo:
Quote
The goverment needs to realize we can't afford everything we could posibly want and at this stage they don't seem to. 

Dont worry, when the Chinese, Japanese, Saudi's, Indians, Brazilians decide to stop picking your cotton for free, its pretty much "game over"

There are lots of things that could make it "game over".   The most we can do is hope they don't happen but in most cases there is more to gain for everyone by them not happening.  For example the Chinese need a place to sell their cheap DVD players and we are still the biggest export market.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 20, 2010, 08:56:53 AM
The IRS closing in on the little guy

This (below) and the new requirement that 1099s have to be filed on purchases of $600 or more is going to do a lot of damage to a fragile economy. Frankly I am sick and tired of the damned government sticking their greedy hands in our pockets and ordering us around. Last year I spent about 20% of my income on bookkeeping expenses. Then there are the taxes. We are their cows to be milked and sheep to be fleeced. Time to pull up stakes and move to Equador


New IRS Reporting Rules to Hit eBay and Paypal; Government Crackdown on Trinket Sellers; Campaign Bribes and Tax Policy


Inquiring minds are interested in 2011 tax policy changes that will affect sellers of merchandise on eBay. John R writes ....

Starting next year Paypal will have to start reporting to the IRS. The selling limits will be 200 items or $20K before they report. This tax change was part of the ’08 stimulus.

Reporting on 200 items annually is a real killer. That’s a mere 17 items a month. We’ve already shut our eBay business down. It's simply not worth the effort.

Most eBay/auction site margins are extremely low. Thus, I wonder how many people will set up a business, keep the books, pay state and federal taxes, just to make a few bucks.

Thanks,
John
New Form 1099-K will debut for 2011 tax year

John is discussing eBay Sellers and Tax Changes
Tax time is upon us again, and this year the IRS has a bit of a warning for eBay sellers: next year you'll be on the hook for the taxes you owe.

Enter the 2011 Form 1099-K

Though sellers won't have to change their filing habits in 2010, a new Form 1099-K for 2011 promises to change income reporting by online sellers. The draft Form 1099-K for 2011 implements payments reporting to the IRS for PayPal and credit card merchants, much as already happens with forms W-2 or 1099-MISC for employees and independent contractors.

Starting in 2011, therefore, sellers will be expected to report gross payments via online or credit card payments that coincide with reported 1099-K amounts, then to make adjustments to account for expenses and cash equivalents, fees, chargebacks, refunds, and so on.

Details and Caveats

As a practical matter, if you're an eBay seller, this will affect you unless your gross sales are under $20,000 for the year or you receive fewer than 200 transactions. Reporting for small sellers at this level is not required.

Otherwise, if you exceed this volume, you'll be required to provide tax identification information (SSN or EIN number, for example) to payment processors like PayPal and will be expected by the IRS to account in your return for the amounts reported on your 1099-K form(s).

The 1099-K form wasn't introduced for the 2010 tax year, so as you do your taxes this year, enjoy the last year you'll report eBay income as a purely voluntary matter.
Government Crackdown on Trinket Sellers

How many hobbyists like John will just say the hell with it? If enough do, it could impact eBay's earnings. Imagine selling 20 items a month, earning a few hundred dollars a year or less in profit, and having to spend time and money keeping track of all the costs associated with the effort.

I am not trying to justify non-payment of taxes, I am simply looking at this from a practical standpoint.

Corporate Earnings Reported to Shareholders vs. Corporate Earnings Reported to the IRS

Just for grins, take a look at big corporation earnings reported to shareholders as compared to earnings as reported to the government. Which one is fiction and which one is real?

Is either legitimate? I doubt it, and in opposite directions. If I am correct, where should government be spending its time and energy?

Loopholes for the Little Guy vs. Loopholes for Large Corporations

Every conceivable loophole, no matter how small, is closed for the little guy, while major corporations have tax avoidance loopholes worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

For example, multinational corporations get to defer profits on taxes held overseas.

Adding insult to injury, there have been semi-regular "tax holidays" where corporations get to repatriate offshore accounts at low rates, to the major advantage of large corporations and huge disadvantage of small US based corporations.


Such policies encourage the flight of jobs and money from the US.

So, here we go again, cracking down on the little guy in attempts to pick up pennies to balance the budget, ignoring hundreds of billions of dollars over the years to large corporations.

Campaign Bribes and Tax Policy

Please note that I am in favor of lower corporate taxes as long as it is done fairly (right now multinationals and large corporations have huge advantages) and as long as we can afford it.

Instead, we have a system that rewards capital flight, rewards job flight, and punishes small businesses relative to larger corporations.

This mess happens because lobbyists for large corporations write our tax code, with politicians taking campaign contributions (bribes) in return for the favor.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


BTW Gold is at $1283.45 as I write this.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 20, 2010, 09:32:14 AM
Bloomberg: Gold Climbs to Record on Weaker Dollar, Global Recovery Concern
 
Nicholas Larkin and Wendy Pugh, On Monday September 20, 2010, 8:16 am EDT
Gold rose to a record for a third day in New York and London as a weaker dollar and concern that the recovery may be faltering boosted demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.

The dollar weakened to near a five-week low against the euro before a report today that may show the U.S. housing market remains weak and on speculation the Federal Reserve will say at a meeting tomorrow it’s considering further measures to keep borrowing costs low. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products reached a record Sept. 17. Silver futures traded 2.4 percent below $21.44 an ounce, the highest price since 1980.

“We’re still seeing the same old story that market participants remain bullish on gold, fearing a slowdown in economic activity,” Peter Fertig, owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said today by phone. “The weaker dollar is definitely one of the factors supporting precious metals.”

Gold futures for December delivery added as much as $7.40, or 0.6 percent, to $1,284.90 an ounce and traded at $1,282.70 at 8 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Bullion for immediate delivery in London gained as much as 0.7 percent to $1,283.38 an ounce and was last at $1,281.05.

The metal rose to $1,280.25 in the morning “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,274 at the afternoon fixing on Sept. 17. The dollar fell as much as 0.5 percent against the euro and slipped to a five-week low on Sept. 17. Gold and the greenback usually move inversely.

Winning Streak

Gold, up 17 percent this year in London, is heading for its 10th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak since at least 1920. Bullion has outperformed global equities, Treasuries and most industrial metals, prompting record investments in gold-backed ETPs. The metal rallied as central banks and governments maintained low borrowing costs and spent trillions of dollars to stimulate their economies.

The Fed is likely to affirm at tomorrow’s meeting its pledge to keep interest rates low for an “extended period” and maintain the floor on its holdings of securities, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to a one-year low of 66.6, figures showed Sept. 17. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey estimate that a National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index due today will record a level of 14 for September, up from 13 last month. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

‘People Are Skeptical’

“There is still a little bit of concern about bits of data and whether we are actually seeing signs of recovery in the U.S.,” Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. in Sydney, said by phone. “People are skeptical, and consequently gold has followed the euro higher.”

Prices may test $1,300 an ounce “in the days ahead,” Heathcote said.

Global holdings of gold by ETPs gained 6.25 metric tons to a record 2,084.15 tons on Sept. 17, according to Bloomberg data from 10 providers. Holdings are up 16 percent this year.

Prices have gained this year even as U.S. inflation slowed. Bullion is traditionally bought as a hedge against rising consumer prices. Inflation expectations, based on the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate, have fallen to 1.79 percent from 2.21 percent six months ago.

Silver for December delivery in New York gained as much as 0.9 percent to $21 an ounce and was last at $20.93. The metal reached $21.025 on Sept. 17, the highest price since March 2008, and is up 24 percent this year.

Platinum for October added as much as 0.6 percent to $1,632.10 an ounce, the highest level since May 19, and was last at $1,631.40. Palladium for December lost 0.3 percent to $544.20 an ounce.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 20, 2010, 09:37:09 AM
Turbo:
Quote
Those who couldn't compete and had to close thier doors have done so.   Those who are left seem to have reached the point where they are most likely to survive and a few are even prospering because of less competition.

 the facts are totally different arent they?

What actually happened is that those who could not compete got bailout money stolen from people (taxes) who were fiscally responsible, so we have government thugs using threat of force to kill businesses who are doing well.  No bottoming out at all, government dug a deeper hole!!!

Turbo:
Quote
The track record of Republicans is far better than the Democrats as far as providing an environment that is good for business.

I was being sarcastic actually. My perception of reality is based on laws passed and growth of government, "lesser of to evils" means only a delay of the inevitable.  Lowering your speed only means you drive off the cliff a few hours later, but driving off the cliff you still do.

Quote
There are lots of things that could make it "game over".

The big nuke is the 12 trillion (and growing) government debt.

Quote
For example the Chinese need a place to sell their cheap DVD players and we are still the biggest export market.

Little physics lesson, look at pic below, the kid is pushing his dad while seated on a beackseat
(http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/shu0503l.jpg)

What will happen?

[ ] The kid pushing adds to the speed of the bike.
[ ] The kid is delusional

Turbo, of course you will not answer above question, just like last time you will stick your head in the sand and continue your funny oratory exercise of voodoo economics.

Lets translate this to the China vs America problem.

China makes stuff => Sells it to Americans=> Americans buy the stuff from money borrowed from the Chinese workers who made the stuff in the first place.  :D

Now if you think the Chinese (or anyone else in the same relationship with the US) are "depedent" in above scenario then your a couple cans short of a sixpack.


Heck, why not raise the wellfare checks of jobless people, that would boost spending and the economy right?   :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 20, 2010, 11:23:05 AM
China is not stupid and knows that after the midterm US elections the muck is going to really hit the proverbial fan in the USA with 600,000 REOs being held off the market temporarily to give the Dems a fighting chance (rigged???) at the polls - the FDIC will have no choice but to force banks to liquidate the 5 Million bad mortgages they are holding back on and the total 900,000 REOs they have right now and that becomes a self defeating cycle - every community with 10 more REOs that are recently sold finds that those properties become the comps or market comparable in the community.  That in turn becomes the mark to market price for all outstanding mortgages comp value and then most USA homeowners go underwater - only really safe home owners are the ones who have no mortgages and own their homes outright.

Only 3 ways to value RE in the USA:

1. Replacement cost (Materials and labor Costs dropping due to lack of demand) many home improvement specialists only charging $25.00 or less per hour to keep busy), Private directories track cost per sq ft by community in the USA - easy to Google.

2. Income (GRM or Gross Rent Multiplier tracked USA wide by HUD - google HUD and GRM and you will get lists of of GRM in any USA community - so if you are in a GRM of 5 or 10 it means that your single family income property 3 bdrms and 1.5 baths renting for $1,000 per month or $12K per year has a value of $60K at a GRM of 5 and 120K at a GRM of ten.  

3. Comps or comparable market values - so if 10 to 20 REOs are priced to sell and the price is half the current fair market value in order for the Banks to get off their books fast that brings the value of all recent sales comparables down as well - then the next round of REOs goes even lower so you have a situation like 1990 when previously $1M condos were being dumped by RTC for $75K to $95K cash and single family homes were being dumped for $5K to $15K or below replacement value which kills new construction demand as no one really knows what the true value is in any community with 600,000 REOs being held bank and a shadow inventory of 5 Million homeowners that banks do not want to take over as the banks become liable to the comply with community maintenance ordinances.

So bottom line is China knows they have fairly well porked their biggest export market and that the coming implosion in the USA will ripple to the EU Canada and India as well as China and that the Chinese need to transition to a domestic consumption based economy as the US is very likely to pull a Mexican-Russian currency roulette and have a mass devaluation of the dollar similar to Mexico going from 3000 pesos in the 90s to 12.76 pesos to the Dollar.  And of course Russia did a similar devaluation in 1998 from 3,000 rubles to 31.07 rubles today.  So the modern method of dealing with out of control debt and currency is to wipe out the middle and working classes with devaluation negotiate debt forgiveness if the suppliers/exporters still want to sell to US markets.

Of course there is always the AU (American Union) options and replace all north and south American currencies with the Amero - but who gets to print those and will they then become the world's reserve currency when the USD goes poof. 2011 looks to be much like the ancient Chinese curse - very interesting times indeed.  Will be not so slowly stocking up on survivalist goods myself.  Bags of pre 1964 silver coins will become an attractive form of trade based upon silver values: http://inflation.us/coins/

Of course the never a borrower or lender be admonition will be truer than ever as taxes will skyrocket and debt and taxes will wipe out most small businesses - debt free people selling essential goods and services might survive.

Not looking too good for the home team but a savvy person can profit handsomely in the chaos.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 20, 2010, 12:01:05 PM
Turbo:
Quote
Those who couldn't compete and had to close thier doors have done so.   Those who are left seem to have reached the point where they are most likely to survive and a few are even prospering because of less competition.

 the facts are totally different arent they?

What actually happened is that those who could not compete got bailout money stolen from people (taxes) who were fiscally responsible, so we have government thugs using threat of force to kill businesses who are doing well.  No bottoming out at all, government dug a deeper hole!!! 

Well Actually JC most of the bailout money went to very few companies, mostly big banks and the auto industry.   The big banks used the money to buy out other smaller banks and to give fat bonuses to thier fat cats.   Of course the goal with the Auto industry was so they could avert bankrupcy which they swore they would do almost up to the day the filed.   I was always more of a GM customer (also a stockholder unfortunately) but now I don't think I will ever buy a GM vehicle again.   Right now I have a Ford pickup and my wife drives a Mercury.  I do think the problems in the Auto industry were so bad that what happened probably was necessary.   The average labor costs for the American manufactuers inclucing benefits was $ 95.00 an hour where the foreign makers who build in the us were paying just a little over 1/3 of that.

Turbo:
Quote
The track record of Republicans is far better than the Democrats as far as providing an environment that is good for business.

I was being sarcastic actually. My perception of reality is based on laws passed and growth of government, "lesser of to evils" means only a delay of the inevitable.  Lowering your speed only means you drive off the cliff a few hours later, but driving off the cliff you still do. 

Quote
There are lots of things that could make it "game over".

The big nuke is the 12 trillion (and growing) government debt.

I will agree the biggest problem we face is debt and it can't be solved by spending money.   It is not a problem that will be solved overnight.  The first thing they need to do is get spending under control.   I really don't think it is past the point of no return but they have to start solving the problem soon.
Quote
For example the Chinese need a place to sell their cheap DVD players and we are still the biggest export market.

Little physics lesson, look at pic below, the kid is pushing his dad while seated on a beackseat
(http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/shu0503l.jpg)

What will happen?

[ ] The kid pushing adds to the speed of the bike.
[ ] The kid is delusional

Turbo, of course you will not answer above question, just like last time you will stick your head in the sand and continue your funny oratory exercise of voodoo economics.

Lets translate this to the China vs America problem.

China makes stuff => Sells it to Americans=> Americans buy the stuff from money borrowed from the Chinese workers who made the stuff in the first place.  :D

Now if you think the Chinese (or anyone else in the same relationship with the US) are "depedent" in above scenario then your a couple cans short of a sixpack. 

First off, JC, where I live there is little sand, so I can't easily stick my head in it.  I have to admit like many things the meaning of the cartoon goes over my head but yes, the kid pushing would probably prompt the dad to peddle faster.   The Chinese are less dependent on us than we are on them but if that debt were to go belly up they would feel it and we still are a market for more and more of thier cheap products so if we went down they would have to as cufflinks said, devolop more of their domestic market.



Heck, why not raise the wellfare checks of jobless people, that would boost spending and the economy right?   :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:
  Personally I think welfare ( or at least unemployment checks) are making the problem worse.   If they couldn't get them many of those would go out and get a job.  People don't hunt seriously for jobs until thier unemployment is about to run out.  The stimulus program has generated lots of jobs.    I saw the total the other day and it was really impressive and the cost to generate each job was only $ 300,000.00 per job.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 20, 2010, 01:25:01 PM
The Montreal View:

Will the IMF Cut Gold Down?
Eric Roseman (September 17, 2010)
Montreal, Canada

This is truly an historical moment for gold and silver bulls.

For the first time since 2008, silver prices this morning show an opening bid of $20.81 an ounce, finally surpassing the closing 30-year high of $20.78 in March 2008. This price action vindicates any doubts about a false gold rally as “birds of a feather flock together. “ In this case, gold and silver have now confirmed this bull market is real and legitimate.

As if I had any doubts?
I’ve been a gold-bull since discovering how the monetary system was debased by central banks and the Fed after Nixon broke gold in 1971.

I’m not romantic about gold; but I’m stunned how central banks have compromised our purchasing power over the past forty years vis-à-vis inflation. It’s really a joke how they get away with this sort of thing. And still, the poor, unsuspecting investor out there doesn’t understand what gold offers or how it’s rapidly becoming an alternative currency since 2005; they just sit in paper currency and keep most of their assets under the auspices of one currency. Talk about financial suicide!

Paper money is now in a long-term bear market as hard assets like gold and silver come to fore as a store of wealth amid a bulging expansion of credit, desperate central banks attempting to grow the money supply, and the likelihood of broad based sovereign government defaults over the next few years.

I still believe we’ll end up in an inflation nightmare before this credit crisis is resolved.

However, central banks and their conduits – including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – will probably try to cut gold down as we fly towards $1,300 an ounce and beyond. The IMF is sitting on a few hundred tons and can do some serious short-term damage to gold prices. I suspect this action won’t derail the primary trend anyway since emerging market central banks will absorb whatever the IMF sells.

Nevertheless, you can bet the IMF will come into play soon to cool off this rally. When they do, I’ll be a buyer once again.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 20, 2010, 02:26:56 PM
Turboguy:
Quote
Well Actually JC most of the bailout money went to very few companies, mostly big banks and the auto industry.  

throw new java.lang.IlligalArgumentException();

My brain hurts when confronted with irrationality, ...it is about the total amount of money not how many/few are getting a piece of it.

Turboguy:
Quote
I will agree the biggest problem we face is debt and it can't be solved by spending money.   It is not a problem that will be solved overnight.  The first thing they need to do is get spending under control.   I really don't think it is past the point of no return

Always use facts and reason as a counter argument. Try it, it is like working out at the gym, first time might hurt a little, but when done consistantly it will become and acquired skill.

Quote
First off, JC, where I live there is little sand, so I can't easily stick my head in it.

I can send you some vasaline for the other hole, since you like government giving it to yaz!

Turboguy:
Quote
I have to admit like many things the meaning of the cartoon goes over my head but

The "goes over your head" doesnt prevent you from having an opinion i see.

Turboguy:
Quote
the kid pushing would probably prompt the dad to peddle faster.

I thought I would make it easy for you by giving you only 2 options to select from, 50% chance of getting it right, but you even manage to  still f$ck up. You have some skill)))

Turbo, lol , personally I think you get off playing games, because nobody can be that defunct in the frontal lobe, then again, there has been some scientific research on why people ignore "the rational sequence" aka the application of "reason and evidence". The MRI scans are not conclusive, but who knows one day we can cure libtardism.


The Bomb in the Brain - An Introduction (liberal thinking is a result of braintrauma)


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 21, 2010, 04:37:17 AM
Turboguy:
Quote
Well Actually JC most of the bailout money went to very few companies, mostly big banks and the auto industry.  

My brain hurts when confronted with irrationality, ...it is about the total amount of money not how many/few are getting a piece of it.

Quote

JC, I was responding to this quote of yours.

the facts are totally different arent they?

What actually happened is that those who could not compete got bailout money stolen from people (taxes) who were fiscally responsible, so we have government thugs using threat of force to kill businesses who are doing well.  No bottoming out at all, government dug a deeper hole!!!


Contrary to what you said, those who could not compete did not get bail out money unless they happened to be a bank or an auto company who was considered too big to fail.   The rest of the normally good businesses that struggled  were left to survive or flop on their own,  No one gives a darn about the little guy who is actually the strenghth of America. 

When I talked about the strong surviving and some even doing better now which was the comments the previous quote were based on, I was thinking about companies like Circut City who went belly up leaving Best Buy as the industry leader who just posted record profits. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 21, 2010, 07:56:30 AM
Turbo:
Quote
Contrary to what you said, those who could not compete did not get bail out money unless they happened to be a bank or an auto company who was considered too big to fail.

No, I said this (note the sequential order and the bold)

1) I repeat:
Quote
it is about the total amount of money not how many/few are getting a piece of it.

Its about the trillions of USD everybody owes to a selected few. But then again as an ardent Keynesian you agree with Statist intervention.

2) I repeat:
Quote
What actually happened is that those who could not compete got bailout money stolen from people (taxes) who were fiscally responsible

"those" is scoped to the companies mentioned in point 1. I was very clear about that.

The economy is not bellying out,

Your anecdotal example doesnt prove anything.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 21, 2010, 09:17:28 AM
If the USA dollar weakens than the USA will sell more local goods and foreigners will buy realestate in USA.  A weak dollar is a good thing right now to make USA more competitive.

There is a reason the Euro got weaker past year as a strong Euro not good for many people in Europe. 

USA dollar is not backed 100% by gold. 

USA still produces more than any other country in the World.  So a weak $ is a good thing plus China will lower prices on goods to sell into USA. 

I made a nice 9% today on gold dropping in price.  A lot better than holding it.  I am glad so many people are into gold easy to make high returns on less than .02% drop in price.   There is a reason the big boys are hyping how great gold is to own.  Make another 50% by next week. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 21, 2010, 12:31:17 PM
Quote
If the USA dollar weakens than the USA will sell more local goods and foreigners will buy realestate in USA.

Yeah, Zimbabwe exports must be peaking right now! Inflating the USD is stealing from savers,  I dont think its the savers job to subsidize US exports. Marxism doesnt work. Marxism never works, ever, period!

Quote
There is a reason the Euro got weaker past year as a strong Euro not good for many people in Europe.

repeat after me "Greece", "PIGS" ,...yeah, i want a euro weak enought so i can pay 10 euro for a loaf of bread. :ROFL: :ROFL:

Quote
USA still produces more than any other country in the World.

Look around in your house (everybody reading this), point out the things that don't say "made in china", "made in Japan", "made in germany", "made in Taiwan", "made in Korea".

Quote
I made a nice 9% today on gold dropping in price.

Well if you have telepathic ability and can predict the stockmarket please DO SHARE....otherwise this is more of a "big swinging dick" tail.


PS: I got my understanding of economics from a fortune cookie as well  :sick0012:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 21, 2010, 11:48:57 PM
Quote
If the USA dollar weakens than the USA will sell more local goods and foreigners will buy realestate in USA.

Yeah, Zimbabwe exports must be peaking right now! Inflating the USD is stealing from savers,  I dont think its the savers job to subsidize US exports. Marxism doesnt work. Marxism never works, ever, period!

Quote
There is a reason the Euro got weaker past year as a strong Euro not good for many people in Europe.

repeat after me "Greece", "PIGS" ,...yeah, i want a euro weak enought so i can pay 10 euro for a loaf of bread. :ROFL: :ROFL:

Quote
USA still produces more than any other country in the World.

Look around in your house (everybody reading this), point out the things that don't say "made in china", "made in Japan", "made in germany", "made in Taiwan", "made in Korea".

Quote
I made a nice 9% today on gold dropping in price.

Well if you have telepathic ability and can predict the stockmarket please DO SHARE....otherwise this is more of a "big swinging dick" tail.


PS: I got my understanding of economics from a fortune cookie as well  :sick0012:

JC once again for an economist you show a surprising lack of knowledge of the world economy.  The US is still the world's top manufacturer and China is in 2nd place at about 70% of USA's capacity.  The US produces items such as production machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts etc.

While it's true that an American is not likely to see production machinery in his house, the average American can still see the USA label on many household products.  Consumer goods such as kitchen appliances, laundry appliances, sporting goods and believe it or not even apparel.  Do some research and you'll find even many more household products made in the USA.    

As for making money in a volatile stock market once again JC for an economist you show a lack of knowledge about the world economy.  Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't the only ones who know how to track equities or commodities and buy low and sell high and do it repeatedly.  

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-the-top-manufacturing-countries.htm
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 22, 2010, 08:27:18 AM
 The US is still the world's top manufacturer and China is in 2nd place at about 70% of USA's capacity.  The US produces items such as production machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts etc.


What is missing from this argument is that the US is rapidly losing it lead. That at it's current rate of decline soon it will be to China what Canada is to the US. Our (I'm an American) financial services industry is now larger than our manufacturing base. Got any derivatives you want to buy?

Gold I just noticed hit a record high of $1296 now about $1293. Some say this is the start of the currency crash.  We'll see. Purchasing gold is the ultimate no confidence vote on your belief in our fiat debt money system.


Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on September 22, 2010, 09:03:29 AM
Westcoast, there are surprisingly few global or even international companies that are US owned. There are many large companies that derive almost all their income from the US market alone yet have well known brand names, even internationally, as I recall, Motorola, for example derives less than 40% of its revenues from outside the US but in the US is seen as a world leader.
As a North American based person you may therefore have a biased view of what you see around you.

As a citizen of the wider world I see exactly what JC noted. There is very little US manufactured goods in the homes of the world citizen. And, as you probably know, the GDP of most developed countries is around 70% based upon consumer spending. This means that even if the US made the machines that the world manufacturers use to build the consumer goods used by the citizens of the world that this contribution would only be quite small in the US context.

Even if  the world citizen buys a US branded good in the rest of the world, there is a very good chance it was produced in the foreign market, thus the only benefit to the US economy is the repatriated profit element and, guess what, most firms try to minimise the amount of profit they repatriate to the US. Of course the funnding of these exported businesses may well come from spending of dollars earned by the firm in its US market...

Interesting note for the Ameriphiles out there, of the top ten largest non-financial multinationals denoted by foreign assets, 3 of the top 4 are from the UK and only two are US based. Don't be feeling too comfy, eh? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 22, 2010, 12:55:09 PM
Westcoast, there are surprisingly few global or even international companies that are US owned. There are many large companies that derive almost all their income from the US market alone yet have well known brand names, even internationally, as I recall, Motorola, for example derives less than 40% of its revenues from outside the US but in the US is seen as a world leader.
As a North American based person you may therefore have a biased view of what you see around you.

As a citizen of the wider world I see exactly what JC noted. There is very little US manufactured goods in the homes of the world citizen. And, as you probably know, the GDP of most developed countries is around 70% based upon consumer spending. This means that even if the US made the machines that the world manufacturers use to build the consumer goods used by the citizens of the world that this contribution would only be quite small in the US context.

Even if  the world citizen buys a US branded good in the rest of the world, there is a very good chance it was produced in the foreign market, thus the only benefit to the US economy is the repatriated profit element and, guess what, most firms try to minimise the amount of profit they repatriate to the US. Of course the funnding of these exported businesses may well come from spending of dollars earned by the firm in its US market...

Interesting note for the Ameriphiles out there, of the top ten largest non-financial multinationals denoted by foreign assets, 3 of the top 4 are from the UK and only two are US based. Don't be feeling too comfy, eh? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multinational_corporation

I would have to agree with you about Motorola it has definitely lost it's status as a world leader in it's field(s).  As for there being very little US manufactured goods in the homes of the world citizen lets look at it your way.  How much manufactured goods are in my home from your link of the top ten non financial multinationals:

1. General Electric - the only GE products I own are light bulbs, however I do watch programs on their TV channels and stations and have watched movies produced by their movie studios.
2. Royal Dutch Shell - buy gas from Shell stations
3. Vodafone Group - use to have a Blackberry.  Recently switched over to the iPhone to see what all the fuss is about.
4. BP - no BP stations in Vancouver, probably used their stations in the USA
5. Toyota Motor - haven't owned a Toyota
6. ExxonMobil - buy their gas
7. Total - no dealerships in Canada, might have bought their products in the EU
8. E.On - Haven't used seems to operate only in the EU and Russia
9. Électricité de France - Haven't used only operates in Europe, Latin America, Asia, the Middle-East and Africa
10. ArcelorMittal - is a global steel company, doesn't sell to the individual.

I'm representative of a Canadian citizen probably fairly representative of a North American citizen.  Three of the top ten don't operate in North America and appear to have a limited global presence.  Does that mean I'm not a world citizen because these companies don't want to operate in Canada/North America?  For the three of the top ten that have no or little presence in North America I guess that means that North America contributes little or nothing to their revenues?  

Andrew how does living in Estonia, a country that has had it's standard of living raised significantly because it managed to join the EU, make you a world citizen?

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on September 22, 2010, 01:21:17 PM
Westcoast, I was using words to make a point but as something more than an armchair traveller with a very limited perspective on the world I think there is a difference 'tween you and I. Don't forget I have lived and worked in several different countries, visited many for shorter but extended periods and spent shorter times up to several week is loads more. (of course I could be worng and you could, even as I type this, be on your way back from an expended sojourn in Moscow before you pop over to France to tie up a little business deal and then hie your way over to London for a reunion of your graduating class from the London School of Economics - I could be wrong, but I doubt it. ;) )

Knowing that the North American market is insular is not news, although it might be to you. ;) The point I was making that what YOU see is not the same as the rest of the world sees and your perspective of North American might is not actually as true as you were suggesting.

Motorola has not ever, as far as I am aware, consistently made more than 40% of its revenues outside the home market. 40% is a useful figure used to make comparisons between companies that trade internationally and those that are international businesses. It is something of a notable point that many US firms are unable to ever cross that threshold. There are good reasons why a large home market is a good thing, but then other reasons why in the end the large home market can lead to big problems. Cars, computers, home electronics, clothes, footwear, electronics components all are areas where we can see the effect, a large home market leads to lesser quality or efficiency of goods and ultimately failure of diminution of the home market ability to provide goods demanded by consumers at a price they will pay at a quality/efficiency level they demand. Chinese stuff is not in your homes just because it is cheap, if it were so then it'd be coming from Vietnam or Laos coz they are even cheaper.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 22, 2010, 03:03:07 PM

Westcoast, I was using words to make a point but as something more than an armchair traveller with a very limited perspective on the world I think there is a difference 'tween you and I. Don't forget I have lived and worked in several different countries, visited many for shorter but extended periods and spent shorter times up to several week is loads more. (of course I could be worng and you could, even as I type this, be on your way back from an expended sojourn in Moscow before you pop over to France to tie up a little business deal and then hie your way over to London for a reunion of your graduating class from the London School of Economics - I could be wrong, but I doubt it. ;) )

Knowing that the North American market is insular is not news, although it might be to you. ;) The point I was making that what YOU see is not the same as the rest of the world sees and your perspective of North American might is not actually as true as you were suggesting.

Motorola has not ever, as far as I am aware, consistently made more than 40% of its revenues outside the home market. 40% is a useful figure used to make comparisons between companies that trade internationally and those that are international businesses. It is something of a notable point that many US firms are unable to ever cross that threshold. There are good reasons why a large home market is a good thing, but then other reasons why in the end the large home market can lead to big problems. Cars, computers, home electronics, clothes, footwear, electronics components all are areas where we can see the effect, a large home market leads to lesser quality or efficiency of goods and ultimately failure of diminution of the home market ability to provide goods demanded by consumers at a price they will pay at a quality/efficiency level they demand. Chinese stuff is not in your homes just because it is cheap, if it were so then it'd be coming from Vietnam or Laos coz they are even cheaper.


Andrew if you want to make this a contest about who is more of a world traveller I'm going to win.  I'm semi-retired, I work when I want to, not because I have to.  I'm free to travel at a moments notice and do.  Earlier this year I was in China and Hong Kong because my ex wanted company.  I enjoy travelling and love to travel to China and the rest of Asia and have been numerous times.   I speak and read the language.  You have proudly pointed out that you don't speak Russian or Estonian and have no intention of learning.  So much for world traveller.  

I don't know why you keep harping on Motorola?  Did one of their cell phones die on you? Andrew this time your logic has completely failed you, time for a refresher course in economics, something even JC could teach.  

Your link to the the top 10 largest non-financial multinationals ranked by total foreign assets lists companies in the USA, France, Germany, the UK, Japan, Netherlands and Luxembourg.  Your theory is that these companies are global companies because a significant amount of their total assets are foreign assets. The real reason that their foreign assets are so large is because the economy of their home country is so small.  Really the only exception to this is Toyota in Japan.

Royal Dutch Shell is number 2 on the list and is headquartered in the UK and Netherlands.  Together the UK and Netherlands economies are only about 22% of the US economy and only about 5.2% of the world economy so of course most of their sales are going to be foreign they sell in the USA and the rest of the world.  Same goes for Vodafone Group and BP, UK companies that sell to the USA and the world.   Électricité de France and Total are French companies.  The French economy is only 19% of the US economy and 4.6% of the world economy.  E.On is a German company.  The German economy is only about 24% of the US economy and 6% of the world economy.  Do I really need to give you Luxembourg's percentages?  

Andrew simple logic, it is far more difficult for an American company to get a significant portion of its income from abroad because the US economy is far and away the world's largest.  Andrew did you notice that there were no Chinese owned companies on your list?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29  

Is the North American market insular? Do we see top American brands only in North America that aren't present in other parts of the world?  Once again Andrew your logic is flawed.  Take a look at the top 100 brands in the world in the link provided.  The first five are American.  Seven of the top ten are American.  Seventeen of the top twenty-five are American.  Andrew are you saying that you don't see these brand names every day in Estonia?  No Coke or Microsoft in Estonia?  I know they're everywhere else in the world.

Andrew you've lived in Estonia too long get out into the light and wake up.  

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/06/07/top_brands/index_01.htm

Edit:

             (http://cache.virtualtourist.com/1/3930121-McDonalds-Tallinn.jpg)
             McDonald's in Tallin just to
             show Andrew that American
             brands exist outside of the USA  :laugh:
               
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on September 23, 2010, 08:22:59 AM
Andrew,

West coast is correct on many fronts.

So you know there are numerous international companies based in The Netherlands, but that is because of tax laws favour international corporations. For what it is worth that trend will accelerate due to changes of tax code in Cyprus and those small islands between England and France.

An example is IKEA in fact Dutch based for tax reasons - the scary reality is though that there "share" of the Dutch market is the greatest in Europe. Somewhere around 70% of households have IKEA in house in Holland. So this counters West Coasts point but except for a generic product such as gas Royal Shell you will find few companies that compete such as an Apple or IBM on the world market. For that matter what about Johnson Wax or Wrigley Chewing gum? They also maintain dominant positions and are American.

The market for almost everything is greater in North America than any where else in the world. (Often even combined guess the Aussies are not contributing enough!)

So you know the Americans have spent more on art and antiques over the last two years than all of Europe combined! But here my numbers are a bit skewed. If you give me a bit of time I will find the facts.

A friend has a his own company, selling bags for laptops. Fairly high end - in the States he sells 50% another 15% in Canada. The balance in Europe. He desperately wants greater sales in Europe but the market is growing in Canada and America and stagnate here. Odd fact it seems lap top sales are slowing down in America. Still it means 35% of his sales are gong to Europe and 65% to America.

Odd his bags are made in China, but he is not allowed to sell in China!

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 23, 2010, 03:00:12 PM
kievstar
Quote
USA dollar is not backed 100% by gold.

That is zero percent. The USD is not backed by  gold at all, and since the fed doesn't allow external entities to audit them, nobody knows how much (if any) gold is being held in Fort Knox.

Westy
Quote
JC once again for an economist you show a surprising lack of knowledge of the world economy.  The US is still the world's top manufacturer and China is in 2nd place at about 70% of USA's capacity.  The US produces items such as production machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts etc.

Once again you engage your keyboard before you engage your brain,

Westy lets make a deal, you stop telling lies about me and I stop telling the truth about you !

Since I don't drink the Kenesyan cool aid, or get a hardon from fractional reserve banking, like you or Turboguy do. I tend to deal with hard economic facts. Lets look at the hard data, instead of Kenesyan dogmatic mantra.
(http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2004/20041126ustradebalance_2ectt/v2/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/chart20041126.gif)

The US trade deficit is running at over 50 billion a year, and since exports (in a normal Austrian economic world) should pay for imports , the US has to borrows the difference from other central national banks (selling bonds). Hence more money is going out then there is coming in. So despite the capital goods your bragging about the "NET" transfer of wealth is NEGATIVE in a big way!

Now Turboguy (who is obviously Kenesyan like you are, although he at least admits to not knowing jack shit about how the economy works), uses this fallacy as an argument that the economy is still good. Yeah right, sure!!!

Westy
Quote
As for making money in a volatile stock market once again JC for an economist you show a lack of knowledge about the world economy.  Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't the only ones who know how to track equities or commodities and buy low and sell high and do it repeatedly.  

The world is not as simple as your leftist Kenesyan ideology paints it.

Kievstar (who was bragging about speculation on gold) held this as proof that gold was a "succers bet". Now If you like to equate short term speculation with long term weath storage (I have been holding gold since march 2008), I think you should give back that free  bachelor degree you got when buying that happy meal at McD's.


 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 23, 2010, 06:40:59 PM
kievstar
Quote
USA dollar is not backed 100% by gold.

That is zero percent. The USD is not backed by  gold at all, and since the fed doesn't allow external entities to audit them, nobody knows how much (if any) gold is being held in Fort Knox.

Westy
Quote
JC once again for an economist you show a surprising lack of knowledge of the world economy.  The US is still the world's top manufacturer and China is in 2nd place at about 70% of USA's capacity.  The US produces items such as production machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts etc.

Once again you engage your keyboard before you engage your brain,

Westy lets make a deal, you stop telling lies about me and I stop telling the truth about you !

Since I don't drink the Kenesyan cool aid, or get a hardon from fractional reserve banking, like you or Turboguy do. I tend to deal with hard economic facts. Lets look at the hard data, instead of Kenesyan dogmatic mantra.
(http://www.icmarc.org/ImageCache/rc/content/marketview/chart/2004/20041126ustradebalance_2ectt/v2/image_5b_40id_3d_22chart_22_5d/1/chart20041126.gif)

The US trade deficit is running at over 50 billion a year, and since exports (in a normal Austrian economic world) should pay for imports , the US has to borrows the difference from other central national banks (selling bonds). Hence more money is going out then there is coming in. So despite the capital goods your bragging about the "NET" transfer of wealth is NEGATIVE in a big way!

Now Turboguy (who is obviously Kenesyan like you are, although he at least admits to not knowing jack shit about how the economy works), uses this fallacy as an argument that the economy is still good. Yeah right, sure!!!

Westy
Quote
As for making money in a volatile stock market once again JC for an economist you show a lack of knowledge about the world economy.  Warren Buffet and George Soros aren't the only ones who know how to track equities or commodities and buy low and sell high and do it repeatedly.  

The world is not as simple as your leftist Kenesyan ideology paints it.

Kievstar (who was bragging about speculation on gold) held this as proof that gold was a "succers bet". Now If you like to equate short term speculation with long term weath storage (I have been holding gold since march 2008), I think you should give back that free  bachelor degree you got when buying that happy meal at McD's.
 

After this latest display of ignorance I've concluded that you are not an economist, you may be a mathematician but you lack any academic training in economics.  The graph you display, without a title so we have no way of knowing what it means, isn't the US trade imbalance with the world.  It might be the US trade imbalance with Canada, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html#2008 .  

You state the "The US trade deficit is running at over 50 billion a year".  In 2003 the US trade deficit with Canada was running at over $50 billion US a year.  The current US trade deficit with the world is running at $42.8 billion/month http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704644404575481411027521610.html?mod=googlenews_wsj .  If this is extrapolated to cover a full year that would put the US trade deficit with the world at about $513.6 billion a year.  

JC the days of buying and holding securities for years may be possible for multimillionaires and billionaires but for the average investor in equities it is the era of buy and hold equities for a short amount of time and then sell for a profit.  That's how you make money in a volatile stock market.  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 25, 2010, 10:43:55 AM
GDXJ

Good Info as I did not realized there was a diversified ETF in "Junior Mining Stocks" also likely to be takeover targets and the economics of mining stocks versus actual Gold and Silver prices is well documented here and on the net (Since mining companies have fixed and variable costs like all businesses a spike in Gold and Silver prices can have a multiplier effect on mining stocks as their profits jump and thus the ETF will outperform physical Gold and Silver holdings.

Gold Hitting New Highs– Lever Your Gains with Small-Caps
Andrew Packer (September 22, 2010)
It’s no surprise that gold is rallying to new highs on the Fed’s latest announcement that they’re committed to throwing in everything– including the kitchen sink– to prop up asset prices.

If you’re a little more speculative or looking for a bigger leveraged move than just the changes in gold and silver, consider some smaller-cap gold mining companies.

With no new significant sources of gold discovered this decade and with production on the decline since 2003, gold remains the place to be and a sure hedge against inflation… but don’t forget to buy some physical gold as the ultimate insurance policy.

The Market Vectors Junior Miners ETF (GDXJ) tracks small and mid-sized mining companies, some of which will surely be bought out by larger producers to replace reserves. This fund, or more accurately its constituents, could offer the best upside exposure to gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 28, 2010, 10:02:15 AM
Gold just hit an all time record high of $1,307.10 and Silver $21.63 per ounce.

This is an increase of 13.5% from the start of this thread six months ago.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 28, 2010, 12:53:19 PM
13% is not that great in 6 months. 

The key is gold going to hit 2,000 or 1,000 first.  I like what gold is doing now going up and down and all the big financial firms are hyping gold and making money shorting it.  So many novice investors want gold to hold that you can make a short term fortune on options.  500% after tax returns are easy on gold right now per month. 

Up down up down and tons of activity.  Gold is being hyped like oil and housing market was a few years ago. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on September 28, 2010, 01:32:29 PM
13% is not that great in 6 months. 

The key is gold going to hit 2,000 or 1,000 first.  I like what gold is doing now going up and down and all the big financial firms are hyping gold and making money shorting it.  So many novice investors want gold to hold that you can make a short term fortune on options.  500% after tax returns are easy on gold right now per month. 

Up down up down and tons of activity.  Gold is being hyped like oil and housing market was a few years ago. 


Over all there is very few percentage wise of people invested in gold, despite the hype. What happens when people wake up to the knowledge that our fiat currency is losing value as the government is revving up the printing press? Trillions of fiat dollars created out of thin are and dumped into our money supply. For every action there is another action.

13% increase in 6 months sure beats savings bonds or just about any other investment. What beats it? The dollar has decreased in value 40% over the last seven years while the price of gold increased 400%.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on September 28, 2010, 01:39:14 PM
After this latest display of ignorance I've concluded that you are not an economist, you may be a mathematician but you lack any academic training in economics.  The graph you display, without a title so we have no way of knowing what it means, isn't the US trade imbalance with the world.  It might be the US trade imbalance with Canada, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html#2008 .  

You state the "The US trade deficit is running at over 50 billion a year".  In 2003 the US trade deficit with Canada was running at over $50 billion US a year.  The current US trade deficit with the world is running at $42.8 billion/month http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704644404575481411027521610.html?mod=googlenews_wsj .  If this is extrapolated to cover a full year that would put the US trade deficit with the world at about $513.6 billion a year.  

JC the days of buying and holding securities for years may be possible for multimillionaires and billionaires but for the average investor in equities it is the era of buy and hold equities for a short amount of time and then sell for a profit.  That's how you make money in a volatile stock market.  

Isn't it amazing that when you confront Monsieur Jack C with facts, he goes in hiding? Never seen a scientist run from facts. :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 28, 2010, 04:40:17 PM
After this latest display of ignorance I've concluded that you are not an economist, you may be a mathematician but you lack any academic training in economics.  The graph you display, without a title so we have no way of knowing what it means, isn't the US trade imbalance with the world.  It might be the US trade imbalance with Canada, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html#2008 .  

You state the "The US trade deficit is running at over 50 billion a year".  In 2003 the US trade deficit with Canada was running at over $50 billion US a year.  The current US trade deficit with the world is running at $42.8 billion/month http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704644404575481411027521610.html?mod=googlenews_wsj .  If this is extrapolated to cover a full year that would put the US trade deficit with the world at about $513.6 billion a year.  

JC the days of buying and holding securities for years may be possible for multimillionaires and billionaires but for the average investor in equities it is the era of buy and hold equities for a short amount of time and then sell for a profit.  That's how you make money in a volatile stock market.  

Isn't it amazing that when you confront Monsieur Jack C with facts, he goes in hiding? Never seen a scientist run from facts. :ROFL:

I think it's safe to assume that all of JC's knowledge of economics and business comes from brief incomprehensible glimpses of the business pages while flipping through newspaper.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 29, 2010, 12:50:48 AM
meanwhile gold is at $1309.80... smart money says that as gold continues to go up, Dow Jones is going to decline until they meet at the point when one ounce of gold buys Dow Jones. Could be at around the 5K point... But off course no one knows for sure...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 01, 2010, 08:34:12 AM

Gold $1,319.79   Silver $22.10
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 01, 2010, 09:14:06 AM

Gold $1,319.79   Silver $22.10
and unless Obama hands in his resignation very soon it's going to continue going up. American people have not faith or trust in this government. Glenn Beck and a few other real patriots have done an excellent job exposing who Obama really is, his background, his agenda and the people who are behind him. It will take decades to undo all the damage that has been done, real estate market is in for another huge wave of foreclosures, the dollar is being devalued....where to put your money? The stock market? Unless you are very good at shorting I wouldn't dare playing with stocks right now. Personally, to me, precious metals give a piece of mind right now. But off course now we find out that Obama stuck another surprise in his "healthcare bill". Every time you sell gold (over $600), you will now have to do a 1099!!! WTF??? I hope you all are voting this November!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 01, 2010, 09:46:41 AM

Gold $1,319.79   Silver $22.10
Personally, to me, precious metals give a piece of mind right now. But off course now we find out that Obama stuck another surprise in his "healthcare bill". Every time you sell gold (over $600), you will now have to do a 1099!!! WTF??? I hope you all are voting this November!

  You would be surprised how many people today are resorting to paying for things in precious metal or being asked to. As this thing gets worse expect more of that.

  Gold and silver will go up as politicians are unable to act fiscally responsible. Huge cuts in social services/entitlements and military spending are not on anyone's agenda except for Ron Paul. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 01, 2010, 09:59:27 AM
13% increase in 6 months sure beats savings bonds or just about any other investment. What beats it? The dollar has decreased in value 40% over the last seven years while the price of gold increased 400%.

Well, I'm in. A Canadian fund mind you but has showed 19% over three quarters. Precious metals are considered high risk and my portfollio is based on medium risk investment so I've stepped out of my 'comfort zone' so to speak...we'll see what happens.  :)

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 01, 2010, 12:29:43 PM
13% increase in 6 months sure beats savings bonds or just about any other investment. What beats it? The dollar has decreased in value 40% over the last seven years while the price of gold increased 400%.

 Precious metals are considered high risk
Brass

By those who get commissions from trading stock. It is stock in a crumbling economy that is high risk. The stock market crashes and will again along with the currency it is based on....
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 01, 2010, 12:51:15 PM
By those who get commissions from trading stock. It is stock in a crumbling economy that is high risk. The stock market crashes and will again along with the currency it is based on....

Well, I've put my money where my keyboard is so I'll keep you updated. ;D If it all goes to hell in a henbasket, it's not really going to matter what you're holding (stock) anyways, I suppose...

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 01, 2010, 06:39:52 PM
By those who get commissions from trading stock. It is stock in a crumbling economy that is high risk. The stock market crashes and will again along with the currency it is based on....

Well, I've put my money where my keyboard is so I'll keep you updated. ;D If it all goes to hell in a henbasket, it's not really going to matter what you're holding (stock) anyways, I suppose...

Brass

Guns and beans in that case. Maybe after the Apocalypse it will be something real like gold and silver that will back the dollar. I'm a strange sort I know. I am probably the only guy you know who gets paid in gold and silver. I work on a percentage of the metal I process and for outside contractors I deal with they work on the same. That is why I see a certain value in the stuff plus all the additional income I get by the rising prices.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 01, 2010, 06:52:13 PM
Guns and beans in that case. Maybe after the Apocalypse it will be something real like gold and silver that will back the dollar. I'm a strange sort I know. I am probably the only guy you know who gets paid in gold and silver. I work on a percentage of the metal I process and for outside contractors I deal with they work on the same. That is why I see a certain value in the stuff plus all the additional income I get by the rising prices.

 :ROFL: Good one, Maxx...

Well, if that's how you're getting paid, as you've stated, as far as the rising prices - you're going about it the right way... :)

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 02, 2010, 12:22:55 AM
Guns and beans in that case. Maybe after the Apocalypse it will be something real like gold and silver that will back the dollar. I'm a strange sort I know. I am probably the only guy you know who gets paid in gold and silver. I work on a percentage of the metal I process and for outside contractors I deal with they work on the same. That is why I see a certain value in the stuff plus all the additional income I get by the rising prices.

 :ROFL: Good one, Maxx...

Well, if that's how you're getting paid, as you've stated, as far as the rising prices - you're going about it the right way... :)

Brass

Refining gold has been my living for the past thirty years. I was at a friendly competitor selling some gold shot a month ago. The owner, the president of the company as he was pouring some of my gold shot on his scale remarked to me that it's a shame everyone isn't able to do business this way. It's a surprise to us that there is such a resistance to this marvelous element by some.

As far as the risk. I do not worry about about a correction in the market. If it drops 2 or 3 hundred dollars so what. I am sure it will come roaring back. What concerns me is government interference in the gold market and an cashless checkless society sold to us as necessary. There are plenty of control freaks out there who want to monitor and control  everything we do and have. BTW recently I have been spending some time with a very kind and thoughtful RW. She's got it all, looks, humor and is very very sweet. It's her whole personality.  :loving:  She is so refreshing to be around. It's been more than seven years since my train wreak and it finally feels like I am getting some oxygen if that makes any sense.



Maxx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 02, 2010, 08:34:55 AM
BTW recently I have been spending some time with a very kind and thoughtful RW. She's got it all, looks, humor and is very very sweet. It's her whole personality.  :loving:  She is so refreshing to be around. It's been more than seven years since my train wreak and it finally feels like I am getting some oxygen if that makes any sense.

Good to read, Maxx! Some of us have been around the forums long enough to know you deserve it. :party0011:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 03, 2010, 07:51:13 PM
BTW recently I have been spending some time with a very kind and thoughtful RW. She's got it all, looks, humor and is very very sweet. It's her whole personality.  :loving:  She is so refreshing to be around. It's been more than seven years since my train wreak and it finally feels like I am getting some oxygen if that makes any sense.

Good to read, Maxx! Some of us have been around the forums long enough to know you deserve it. :party0011:

Brass

Thank you Brass. I do not know where it is going. Tomorrow will be our last day. I have to leave. I'm going to give her all my contact information and see what happens. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 04, 2010, 02:21:36 PM

Telling it like it is

By:  Peter Schiff
Friday, October 1, 2010

NY Fed President William Dudley's outrageous statements today closely conform to recent pronouncements from other Fed officials and confirm that a massive round of dollar devaluation is poised to begin.

Seemingly overnight, the Fed appears to have altered its mandate, ditching its former goal of "price stability" in favor of "moderate price inflation." While no one is under the illusion that the Fed has kept prices stable over the last century, it used to be that the governors would at least pretend to fight inflation. Low inflation used to be the aim, now it's the enemy. 

Although the inflation being created by the Fed may not be showing up immediately in rising rents or auto prices, it is nevertheless pushing up asset prices in other areas.  Many commentators are celebrating the "best September for the Dow and S&P in 71 years," rising 7.7% and 8.8% respectively. Well, it was also a pretty great September for soybeans (up 9.5%), rice (up 10%), oil (up 11%), corn (up 12.2%), orange juice (up 13%), cotton (up 17.5%), and sugar (up 19.3%). In fact, the whole CRB is up 8.7%. The Swiss franc is up 4.6%, the euro up 7%, the Aussie dollar up 9%. Gold is at all-time highs, silver at 30-year highs, and copper at 3-year highs.

In other words, the box of Uncle Ben's in my kitchen cabinet had a better month than the Dow Jones Industrials. The same could be said for the boxer shorts in my dresser. Could it be that the Dow isn't rising, but the dollar falling?

Dudley says it may take "several years" before inflation returns to levels consistent with the Fed's mandate. Exactly when did the Fed establish a floor for "acceptable inflation?" Where is that floor, 2%? (The core PCE index is currently up 1.4% for the year) If we are below the floor, where's the ceiling- 3%? 4%? In 1971, President Nixon imposed price controls when inflation averaged 4%. That rate was considered so high that emergency measures were needed. Is that still the case? How much higher do costs have to go for cash-strapped Americans before the Fed can be expected to take its foot off the gas?

Without better understanding of where these parameters lie for the Fed, the markets will be flying blind through an impenetrable fog.

If the Fed were serious about maintaining long-term price stability, which is its actual mandate, it would need to allow prices to fall after the speculative booms that it helped create. As we saw in the 1980s, unemployment resolves itself when the monetary system is sound, but no one will hire under the uncertainty of a rogue, inflationary Federal Reserve. As people on fixed incomes, increasingly impoverished by low yields and rising prices, desperately re-enter the work force, look for unemployment to head higher.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 05, 2010, 04:12:23 AM

Gold  $1325.40 Silver $22.10
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 06, 2010, 07:23:46 AM
Gold $1344.40  Silver $22.83
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 07, 2010, 12:23:29 PM
Big drop in gold today hope you guys are day trading with options like I mentioned more than a week ago.  10% daily returns not hard right now. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 07, 2010, 01:50:43 PM
I thought the Wall Street Journals take on the gold mania was interesting today
=============================================

The conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that the gold bubble is about to pop.

After all, people will tell you, the little guy is now totally on this bandwagon. Ordinary Mom and Pop investors from Bakersfield to Boston have dumped their stocks and poured their money into gold coins and bullion funds. It's a mania–just like Nasdaq '99, real estate '04, gold '10. Look at all the TV commercials. Look at these new gold coin vending machines. Everybody knows that when the ordinary public get into a boom, the smart money gets out. Right?

I decided to check out the facts on this urban legend. And they may surprise you.

How much have ordinary Americans actually invested in gold this year?

According to Financial Research Corp., a Boston firm which tracks the data, investors poured $7.4 billion into gold bullion through exchange-traded funds from the start of the year through the end of July. Nearly all of that went into State Street's (NYSE: STT-News) SPDR Gold Trust.

But a lot of that money came from big institutions like pension funds, hedge funds and mutual funds. According to State Street, these account for at least 45% of the investment in GLD these days.

So individual members of the public probably accounted for only about half the new investment, or $3.7 billion.

The public has also been buying gold coins and bars. According to GFMS, Ltd., the London-based consultancy that produces the most authoritative figures, U.S. investors bought about 45 metric tons of gold bars and coins in the first half of this year. This is less than they bought last year.

Based on prices in the first half, that maybe accounted for another $1.7 billion or so of investment.

Grand total: The public bought about $5.4 billion worth of gold.

But the story doesn't end there. At the same time, others were selling gold. Lots of it. I was walking through the mall on Saturday when a young woman came up to me, thrust a plastic bag and leaflet under my nose, and asked me if I had any old gold jewelry to sell. The company she worked for would do a deal on the spot.

This is a new twist on a well-established business. In every major town there are stores that do a busy trade buying and selling gold. As the price of gold has risen, more and more people have been ringing the bell. In an economy like this, where so many people are struggling, it is a tempting offer.

How much has been sold? Nobody knows for certain. But GFMS says the figures so far are about 10% to 20% higher than last year. Some very rough numbers suggest sales through the first half may have come to about 70 metric tons or so–worth maybe $2.7 billion.

So if individualsbought $5.4 billion worth of gold, and sold about $2.7 billion, their total net investment comes to $2.7 billion. These are the figures through early summer: July for the bullion funds, end of June for the physical gold.

Are these bubble levels? Is the mania near its peak?

Try this. Through the end of July, according to FRC, investors poured $22 billion into emerging markets mutual funds. And a remarkable $155 billion into bond funds. Compared to these figures, the amount invested into gold is chickenfeed.

But it's a tiny share of retail investment this year. It's hard to call it a public mania.

And what about more recently, as the gold price has surged? Once again, the figures are surprising. The total ounces of gold held by the GLD has risen just a couple of percentage points since July. GFMS says that gold coin sales had a weak third quarter here in the U.S.

What this means next for gold is another matter. I'll repeat my own views on this. While I am deeply skeptical of gold as a long-term investment, I recognize that it is in a secular bull market and I suspect it may be the next fully-fledged mania. Currency debasement is a theme unlikely to go away any time soon.

I keep hearing everyone tell me gold is so over. But I don't know many people who actually hold much in their own portfolio. I'd find it easier to believe gold was totally over if no one was saying it and everyone was bragging about all the gold coins they held.

Where does this leave you, the investor?

The gold price has had a great run in the past few weeks - ever since Ben Bernanke warned he might print dollars to buy up more government bonds. And the latest news from the options and futures market suggest it may be due for a pullback: According to Kasper Kirkegaard, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank, speculative betting on a price rise is now near record levels. That usually precedes some kind of reversal. Proceed with caution–as usual.

If you want to play this bubble and you think it has a long way to run, but you want to minimize your risks, one smart way is to buy "out of the money" call options. They're like a long-odds bet on a price jump. That gives you plenty of upside in a boom with small risk. Building positions in stages, instead of jumping all-in at once, remains the way to go.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 07, 2010, 02:32:54 PM
I tend to think todays drop is not the end of the world.

[Edit: Oops guess I can't link that website.] Try this:

 http://www.thestreet.com/story/10882535/1/gold-prices-rally-as-currency-wars-heat-up.html

http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0728698520101007

More of a market correction due to the rising U.S. dollar according to these two articles, we'll see.

Canadian gold faired a little better, btw. :chuckle:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 07, 2010, 10:41:44 PM
Big drop in gold today hope you guys are day trading with options like I mentioned more than a week ago.  10% daily returns not hard right now.  

I am sorry to tell you this... I have seen lots of dips.  They are really nothing compared to the fact that the price of gold has been going up and up in the long run...   I have not seen the gold price being dropped below $1,000 this past year..  They just keep going up and up in the long term.  I have absolutely NO desire to participate in this very risky business of day trading.  Again, I am NOT looking at gold as investment.  I am here to protect my wealth/cash from the confiscation of inflation/excessive money printing.  

I keep hearing from all of the alternative news that  the leaders in the Federal Reserve Bank have been talking that our nominal inflation rate is way too low, and they are working on a plan of printing up huge amount of dollars to buy bonds and all of the treasuries to raise the inflation rate.  

To me, it appears that they want to monetize our debts by printing so much money that people can earn enough income to pay back their debts.   It's so absurd to watch those fools thinking that printing up oodles of paper money could create an illusion of being millionaire or billionaire according to the value in US Dollar.  Whereas in reality, according to the value in gold/silver, those so-called "millionaires" or "billionaires" would be poor or broke, not having enough money to buy food or any necessities...  

In fact, when our government creates inflation with the goal of generating higher incomes, the real incomes of people always decline dramatically. Inflation never creates wealth, but instead misallocates resources that should have went to the productive areas.  

In contrary to the majority of people's opinion,  I still believe that gold is still very undervalued at $1,340 per ounce.  It is still a good buy...  I am still enjoying my peace of mind of owning real assets that are predictable, stable, do not depend on others' liabilities/debt, do not depend on the false hope/faith, and so on...  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 08, 2010, 08:11:15 AM
Well it's currently sitting at $1,342.36 (USD) as I type this but the intraday spot indexes are all over the map as far as price goes...Now the Daytraders will be happy. :chuckle:

Brass

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 08, 2010, 09:09:44 AM

Gold $1348.10
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 08, 2010, 05:35:57 PM
usd=toiletpaper,

Some people on fixed income with young FSU wives are going to find out how much their 20+ year younger spouse REAAAALY loves them.


 :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 09, 2010, 03:59:13 AM
usd=toiletpaper,

Some people on fixed income with young FSU wives are going to find out how much their 20+ year younger spouse REAAAALY loves them.
Ah, I sure am glad to find a use for it and just when I was running low on Charmin too.

Your post gives me a lot to think about and a lot to be thankful for.  Makes me really happy that I don't live on a fixed income with a 20 year younger wife.  I wonder what the difference is between living on a fixed income and having an income that hasn't changed in 10 years or more?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on October 09, 2010, 08:02:41 AM
My opinion it is not so much your income today as your expenses today.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 09, 2010, 10:51:59 AM
Quote
I wonder what the difference is between living on a fixed income and having an income that hasn't changed in 10 years or more?

wasnt talking about you, but if the shoe fits
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 10, 2010, 04:05:45 AM
wasnt talking about you, but if the shoe fits

Nope, sorry, I am a size 11. 

My opinion it is not so much your income today as your expenses today.

Good point AvHdB.  If someone is living within thier means and watching their expenses they are probably fine. 

I can't say I really see much logic to the comment "Some people on fixed income with young FSU wives are going to find out how much their 20+ year younger spouse REAAAALY loves them."

In the first place guys on fixed incomes probably have it better than the many that find themselves unemployed or underemployed.   There are many ways guys on fixed incomes can get that fixed income and unless they had a retirement package based on Enron securities they could be quite comfortable and if it is based on interest, the very low interest rates of today won't last forever.  So that is a brief part of why I question the first part of the statement.

When it comes to the second part I guess some guys have a pretty low opinion of RW.  Some must feel they have a lot of ambition or what in simpler terms we call "get up and go".  Well I think if someone things RW get up and go when times get tough they are probably right about some of them but there are some who hang in there.  "Fixed income" would suggest an older dude, so if he does have a 20+ year younger wife she should still be at an age where she can pitch in and go to work to help with thier income.

The guy on the fixed income can always go back to work as well if things get tough.  My granddad retired comparitively wealthy, got hooked up with a con artist when he was in his 80's and had to go back to work as a bell hop at age 82 to help support himself and his 25 year younger wife.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 10, 2010, 04:28:11 PM
Quote
The guy on the fixed income can always go back to work as well if things get tough.  My granddad retired comparitively wealthy, got hooked up with a con artist when he was in his 80's and had to go back to work as a bell hop at age 82 to help support himself and his 25 year younger wife.

Considering your views on how the economy works, I think history will repeat itself again.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 13, 2010, 08:06:06 AM

Gold $1359.90   Silver $23.51
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 13, 2010, 03:01:17 PM

Considering your views on how the economy works, I think history will repeat itself again.

My view on how the economy works has little to do with my own situation and little to do with anything.  How I handle my own finances may have some pertinence.   As far as me having to go back to work at 80 if my health holds up I don't plan to quit working until way after that point so it can't repeat itself. 

So, at what point does everyone think the gold bubble will burst?  Part of me thinks about $ 1497.00 and part of me thinks it will go all the way to about $ 1750.00 before the bottom falls out.  I don't see it happening until at least Spring.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 13, 2010, 03:21:08 PM

Considering your views on how the economy works, I think history will repeat itself again.

My view on how the economy works has little to do with my own situation and little to do with anything.  How I handle my own finances may have some pertinence.   As far as me having to go back to work at 80 if my health holds up I don't plan to quit working until way after that point so it can't repeat itself. 

So, at what point does everyone think the gold bubble will burst?  Part of me thinks about $ 1497.00 and part of me thinks it will go all the way to about $ 1750.00 before the bottom falls out.  I don't see it happening until at least Spring.
Hi Ray, I was wondering how did you come up with these numbers?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 13, 2010, 03:38:58 PM
So, at what point does everyone think the gold bubble will burst?  Part of me thinks about $ 1497.00 and part of me thinks it will go all the way to about $ 1750.00 before the bottom falls out.  I don't see it happening until at least Spring.

I'll be watching real close the first couple of weeks after the Nov elections as well.

[spot check - Gold $1371.74(USD) per ounce as I type]

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 14, 2010, 06:52:23 AM

Hi Ray, I was wondering how did you come up with these numbers?
[/quote]

Just a gut feeling Eduard.  For some reason I have always been lucky at calling the bottoms on the stock market.  I hit the last one (and some other major bottoms) to the day and put all my reserves sitting on the sideline (what there were anyway) in my account into stocks at the exact bottom.  I have never had as much luck calling tops and what I guessed would be a top.  Those just seem like points of resitance to me.

I do have to agree with Brass that the November elections may have some impact on the price of gold.  Heck, if the Democrats retained control of both the house and the senate I think I might opt for buying gold.  I have seen some polls lately that indicate the Democrats have been gaining in the polls.  I think if the Democrats retained contol of the house and senate gold could sail past two grand.  If the republicans take both then the bottom could fall out of gold and a split which is likely probably wouldn't have a lot of effect.

Eduard, we talked a while back about me looking at property down your way.  I just browsed for the first time in 6 months a few mintues ago and it looks to me that things have fallen even futher down there.  I was a little shocked at the prices.  Gold would have definately been a wiser choice than real estate so far.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 14, 2010, 08:13:50 AM

Eduard, we talked a while back about me looking at property down your way.  I just browsed for the first time in 6 months a few mintues ago and it looks to me that things have fallen even futher down there.  I was a little shocked at the prices.  Gold would have definately been a wiser choice than real estate so far.
yes, Ray, and it looks like they are going even further down  :( Too many forclosures, and even more coming...plus this new forclosure crisis...I think real estate could go another 30 to 50% down in the next year or two. Scary!
As far as gold and silver are concerned, sure, if the Republicans take over in November they will go down a bit, but I don't think that it's going to be drastic. maybe a hundred or two....then I will be buyng again ;-) I think that even if the Republicans take over they are not going to be able to stop the devaluation of the dollar and when the dollar goes down, gold and silver go up. But I agree with you that we are to expect correction if the dems are ousted in 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 14, 2010, 08:36:14 AM
As an aside, I thought I heard that buying forclosed houses is out right now due to some probe - could be wrong just picked it up in passing (or read a headline or something) - but if so, that would mean these houses, which make up a large part of the US real estate market right now is frozen?

Maxx, about two years ago you recommended buying scrap silver in anticipation of what's happening now. Still a good buy? (coinage vs. sterling vs. just buying bullion).

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 14, 2010, 10:10:27 AM

Considering your views on how the economy works, I think history will repeat itself again.

My view on how the economy works has little to do with my own situation and little to do with anything.  How I handle my own finances may have some pertinence.   As far as me having to go back to work at 80 if my health holds up I don't plan to quit working until way after that point so it can't repeat itself.  

So, at what point does everyone think the gold bubble will burst?  Part of me thinks about $ 1497.00 and part of me thinks it will go all the way to about $ 1750.00 before the bottom falls out.  I don't see it happening until at least Spring.

The gold bubble will NOT burst in my perspective!  The gold price is still undervalued.  There is no gold bubble.  Gold is still the most stable form of wealth storage.   If it is the real worth in relation to USD, it should be somewhere in the $5,000 to $6,000 range...    

As of today, October 14, 2010...  

Gold - $1,372.18  Silver - $24.39


I am sorry to say this...  It is a fact that we do NOT have a government is in the best interest of us as Americans...  It is so clear that our government is serving the elite global bankers and their agenda, not us...    

Republicans taking over the Congress is not the answer to our problem...  I do not trust the voting system.  It has proven that our election is being rigged especially with those electronic voting machines...  It is so obvious that Republicans are not doing in our best interests as Americans.  I really love my country, but it is so sad to watch how our national pride, economy and freedom are being taken away by those traitors.  I really hope that our current dilemma is beginning to wake up the "sleeping giant" of freedom loving Americans and take actions to create a huge change for the better...   It is time to kick those ruling global elites out of our country.  They do NOT belong to here in America!   >:(   >:(   >:(            

Guys, get prepared for the hyperinflation and social collapse!  Grow your own food garden, set up your own water supply system, rack up your precious metals, guard up your house from invaders...  

As for buying physical precious metals, I'd rather to use silver rounds or coins that have "1-oz" inscribed on it for buying stuff such as American Eagle, Canadian Maple or silver rounds from private mints.  It is just a way to get the deal done much quicker and easier.  If I want to sell my food seeds to someone, I'd rather to accept silver coins with "1-oz" inscribed on it as payments.  I prefer those over silver scraps or junk coins, where I might have to waste some of my time to weigh and test to make sure it is real silver at a proper weight.        

It goes the same for gold coins if I want to buy a large item like a new car or a new land for personal residence.  

I also buy gold and silver bars for long-term storage and saving for future purchases such as saving my money for future large items or capital money to start up a business...  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 14, 2010, 10:25:00 AM
That is correct Brass.  It is not a total shutdown but many banks have stopped all forclosures and put a freeze on selling homes that have been foreclosed.   I saw a video from one expert who thinks it will last for a couple of months as they review all the paperwork and procedures.   This will take a lot of homes off the market but only temporarily.  Most of the procedures were probably legal and ok but not properly handled.  Once things open up again there will likely be a glut of homes that could bring prices down even more.  

Eduard, yes, I think you are right that prices could go even lower but houses there are a bargain even right now.  When I see beautiful houses that are only a year or two old selling even below 100 grand that were double that not long ago it does make me start to think again about buying down there.  Another 20% and I think I would have a hard time passing that up.

Khelkhov, I agree that traditional Republicans are not the answer.  I think the Tea Party may be a step in the right direction and like a lot of Americans I would like to see everyone in office voted out and start over with all new legislators that have some business sense and to good of the country at heart.  I do think Obama has done more damage in his short time than virtually any president in the history of this country.  I won't say it is to the point where it can't be salvaged but more of the same and we are cooked gooses.  I still see gold as a bubble and don't think gold that costs $ 400.00 an ounce to mine is worth even the price they ask now.  Some people are in a panic and some are riding the bubble just as they did with real estate a few years ago and tulip bulbs 4 centuries ago.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 14, 2010, 11:12:55 AM
Khelkhov, I agree that traditional Republicans are not the answer.  I think the Tea Party may be a step in the right direction and like a lot of Americans I would like to see everyone in office voted out and start over with all new legislators that have some business sense and to good of the country at heart.  I do think Obama has done more damage in his short time than virtually any president in the history of this country.  I won't say it is to the point where it can't be salvaged but more of the same and we are cooked gooses.  I still see gold as a bubble and don't think gold that costs $ 400.00 an ounce to mine is worth even the price they ask now.  Some people are in a panic and some are riding the bubble just as they did with real estate a few years ago and tulip bulbs 4 centuries ago.

I do not buy the whole Tea Party thing.  It will not work.  It will fail....  Why?

1.       The people involved still believe in the process of elections although overwhelming evidence exists to prove that election fraud is rampant.

2.       Politicians only offer them the words they want to hear until they are elected. Then they serve the secret agenda that got them support from global elite who are determined to build a world economy and world government.

3.       All new political movements are infiltrated by wolves in sheep’s clothing with the simple intention of leading it towards an isolated direction.

4.       Disputes then begin inside and splinter the movement until it is too small to have any impact.

5.       Once new congressional leaders are elected, they are regulated to the bottom of the power rung, by the time they attain seniority, they have been corrupted and are no different than what they replaced because the system is rotten from the inside.

6.       The media controls the perception of everything since the majority of Americans believe what they media tells them.

7.       The majority of Americans have woke up to the above and disengaged from the entire process and don’t vote.
_______

Another thing, it seems that the average Americans are pouring their money into U.S. treasuries at this time...

Well, they got crushed when the dot-com bubble collapsed, they got decimated when the Real Estate bubble burst, and now they are loading into dollar-denominated assets.  At the time same time, the Federal Reserve is trying to destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar by printing up more money...

So, It is the reality that the U.S. treasuries are actually the bubbles that are about to burst!  It is NOT the gold...



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 14, 2010, 12:49:30 PM

Another thing, it seems that the average Americans are pouring their money into U.S. treasuries at this time...

Well, they got crushed when the dot-com bubble collapsed, they got decimated when the Real Estate bubble burst, and now they are loading into dollar-denominated assets.  At the time same time, the Federal Reserve is trying to destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar by printing up more money...

So, It is the reality that the U.S. treasuries are actually the bubbles that are about to burst!  It is NOT the gold...


If that were the case would we not be discussing this in a forum topic titled "Buying Treasuries to insure security" or the like.   I think gold is the bubble not treasuries.

I agree with some of the things you are saying but not all and not totally.   I do think that when someone was elected to Congress in the past and had the intention of doing the best thing for his/her constituants that they found themselves alone and ostrasized and were helpless to fix the problems.  I don't think one or two smart well intended people are going to change anything.  We need to dump everyone and end the power brokering.

To me one of the biggest problems is the voters.   If the congressperson serving them is able to bring a lot of big projects into their district he is consdiered an excellent representative.  As a result and because they know that you get, you vote for my pork barrel project to make your voters happy and I will vote for yours.  Just as when they needed a few more votes for health care they took the ones on the fence aside and talked about what projects they could support for their region that will get them to vote for health care.  They are buying votes in Congress with our money. 

As far as election fraud I don't know that I would call it rampant.  I do think we have had a few presidents that were elected by fraud.  Kennedy and Bush for two.  I do think in some areas such as Chicago, I would agree with you and I think there are some serious problems with our election processes but rampant, I question a bit.

I do agree about the media.  I don't know the answer but they do control who gets elected to a great degree.


Well, they got crushed when the dot-com bubble collapsed, they got decimated when the Real Estate bubble burst, and now they are loading into dollar-denominated assets.  At the time same time, the Federal Reserve is trying to destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar by printing up more money...


People crushed themselves.  No one held a gun to their head and said buy dot comes or real estate.  That is why I am sceptical of gold.  It is the same motivation that lead people into the dot coms and real estate that is driving them to gold. 

Going back to the foreclosure situation for a minute.  I just saw that the 102,000 forclosures in September was about the same total for one month as in all of 2005 before the bubble burst.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 14, 2010, 04:24:40 PM
That is correct Brass.  It is not a total shutdown but many banks have stopped all forclosures and put a freeze on selling homes that have been foreclosed.   I saw a video from one expert who thinks it will last for a couple of months as they review all the paperwork and procedures.   This will take a lot of homes off the market but only temporarily.  Most of the procedures were probably legal and ok but not properly handled.  Once things open up again there will likely be a glut of homes that could bring prices down even more.  

Yeah, thanks Ray. I've caught up with the news (well, at least what they're reporting). Miserable stuff. Also, possibly 1000's of lawsuits in the making if there are mistakes as well.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 15, 2010, 11:20:06 AM
FULL ARTICLE: America's Currency Crisis is Now Underway
 
According to minutes that were just released this week from the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 21st, the Federal Reserve is now trying to figure out ways to boost inflation expectations. The mainstream media is reporting that the Federal Reserve wants to publicly declare their intention to seek a higher inflation rate so that Americans are encouraged to spend more before their money is worth less. Unfortunately, what the mainstream media fails to realize is, not only will their money soon be worth less but it will literally become worthless.
 
If the Federal Reserve doesn't immediately raise interest rates dramatically, there is serious risk of the current "meltup" turning into hyperinflation before the end of 2012. The Federal Reserve's words can no longer control the present situation. They are saying they want inflation so that when massive inflation does arrive, it appears as though they still have control. With gold up 19% and silver up 38% since NIA's July 28th article "Gold and Silver Capitulation is Near" in which we said, "the big move to the upside (for gold and silver) is right around the corner", it is obvious that the Federal Reserve has completely lost control of inflation and a major currency crisis is already underway.
 
The world is flooded with excess liquidity of U.S. dollars. Up until now, Americans have been blessed by the fact that the world has been hoarding these dollars, believing they are a safe haven during these uncertain economic times. The world's confidence in the U.S. dollar and strong demand for U.S. treasuries despite the need for the Federal Reserve to monetize our $13.6 trillion national debt will one day be looked back at as the most mysterious paradox of our generation.
 
The average American today is pouring money into U.S. treasuries. They got crushed when the dot-com bubble collapsed, they got decimated when the Real Estate bubble burst, and now they are loading into dollar-denominated assets. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is trying to destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. The only thing the Federal Reserve should be focused on today is preventing hyperinflation, because hyperinflation always leads to complete societal collapses.
 
Almost all American investment advisors tell their clients today that government bonds are the "safest investments there are" because they "are backed by the full faith and credit of the government". It is very common for investment advisors to recommend to their clients that they put 25% or more of their assets into U.S. government bonds and keep another 25% of their assets in U.S. dollar cash. Yet, there are almost no investment advisors in existence who recommend to their clients that they put more than 5% of their assets into gold.
 
Investors who only put 5% of their assets into gold might find that they only retain 5% of their purchasing power in the future. Neither NIA nor its co-founders are investment advisors, but our commentary has consistently highlighted our beliefs that there is no such thing as owning too much gold. NIA believes that individual investors' portfolios should be 100% in assets that will retain or increase in purchasing power during hyperinflation. The only question today that smart investors should be asking themselves is what percentages do I put into physical gold, physical silver, mining stocks, agricultural commodities, etc.
 
Obama continues to state he will not raise taxes for those earning less than $200,000, yet he is doing absolutely nothing to reduce government spending. With China and Japan getting ready to pull the plug on the U.S. dollar, future U.S. deficit spending will have to be paid for by outright money printing. The price inflation that is ahead as a result of monetary inflation is the absolute worst thing that can happen to middle class Americans. Obama's inflation won't hurt the wealthy as much because the wealthy, if they become educated and act quick enough, can still preserve the purchasing power of their wealth by buying gold and silver.
 
Obama's plan to reduce our budget deficit from $1.6 trillion today down to $752 billion in 2015 is contingent on 5.58% annual GDP growth and interest rates on our public debt of only 4.1%. The only way we will see 5.58% annual GDP growth is with massive inflation and when inflation spirals out of control, so will interest rates. There is no doubt that our nation's budget deficit come 2015 will be substantially higher than it is today, if our nation survives until then.
 
If you would like your friends and family members to be the first to see NIA's new upcoming documentary about America's societal collapse, please tell them to become a member of NIA for free at http://inflation.us
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 15, 2010, 11:23:47 AM
Interesting Newsletter Article

The End of a Currency Era

Why the Hong Kong Dollar’s End Will Mark the Beginning of a New Reserve Currency

By Evaldo Albuquerque

Have you ever heard of a Cruzeiro, Escudo, Deutschemark, Peseta, or Sucre?

If not, I’ll give you a hint. If there was a currency cemetery, you would find a headstone with each one of these names.

That’s right: They are all dead, long gone currencies. While hyperinflation destroyed some of these currencies, most were simply replaced by the dollar or the euro.

Now there’s one more currency that’s about to be buried: the Hong-Kong dollar.

But it will not follow the typical “dollarization” or “euroization” path. And the implications of that go well beyond Hong Kong. In fact, the Hong Kong dollar’s end could be the very event that introduces a new reserve currency into the world.

Let me explain…

Why Hong Kong Citizens Are Ditching Their Own Currency

Our emerging market strategist Jeff Opdyke just returned from a trip to Hong Kong and Singapore. While in Asia, he met with several local business contacts. Overall, Jeff says most locals believe the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) will go the way of obsolete currencies soon.

They expect the Chinese yuan (CNY) will replace the Hong Kong dollar.

For good reason. As I mentioned in my previous article, the Chinese yuan is gaining in prominence with each passing month.

A few months ago, you could buy yuan outside of China, but you were only allowed to convert it back to the original currency if you were inside the country. That has changed.

Jeff says you can now open bank accounts in Hong Kong to hold yuan directly. And you can trade it back and forth into whatever major currency you wish, as often as you wish.

China already allows Hong Kong residents to buy as much as HKD 20,000 (US$2,500) worth of yuan per day. And a lot of local residents Jeff spoke with are taking advantage of that. They are loading up on the Chinese currency.

These locals believe it is just a matter of time before the yuan replaces the Hong Kong dollar for good. They know the yuan is deeply undervalued against the dollar. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the buck, so that means the yuan is also undervalued against Hong Kong’s currency.

That’s why yuan denominated deposits in Hong Kong are about to go parabolic. Just this past August, Hong Kong's yuan deposits surged 26%. Some estimate that in one year yuan deposits will reach at least CNY 500bn, increasing the current yuan deposit base fivefold.

Going Regional Before it Goes Global

Do Hong Kong citizens know something that we don’t? Not really. We warned you before.
Last month, I told you why the yuan could replace the dollar by 2015. In that article I showed you how China is planting the seeds of a powerful reserve currency. What’s going on in Hong Kong is part of a much bigger plan.

China wants the yuan to become a world reserve currency fairly soon. China's allowance of a freely traded yuan in Hong Kong is one more step towards freeing the currency completely.

Becoming a regional currency it’s a natural step before the yuan can effectively capture the dollar’s place as a reserve currency.

And China continues to push its agenda forward. For example, President Hu Jintao just said that China will support a Russian proposal to commence direct trading between the yuan and the Russian ruble.

China is also trying to develop its Forex, bond and equity markets to meet different investor demands. As China’s capital markets continue to mature, more and more people will invest in Chinese yuan assets. That will just provide more support to the yuan.

While the yuan continues to gain international ground, the Fed is preparing to print up more money, flushing the dollar down the toilet.

Maybe that’s why a former member of the Chinese Central Bank recently told an audience in Singapore that we are “one step nearer to a U.S. dollar crisis.”

What Does This All Mean to You?
After this conversation with Jeff, it seems crystal clear that Asia views the Hong Kong dollar as a currency with a fairly short life span.

The HKD is heading towards extinction. And it’s a mistake to think that this development has no implications for U.S. investors.

The yuan is becoming more and more popular in Asia. That not only sets the stage for the yuan to gain importance in the international scenario, but also puts the U.S. dollar in a dangerous situation.

And if you’re holding all of your assets in dollars, like the majority of Americans do, that puts your finances in danger.

The dollar has already been losing status in the international market for some time. In recent years countries like China, India, Brazil and Russia have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar. That’s one explanation behind the long period of dollar weakness between 2002 and 2008.

That process will only accelerate in the coming years. If some of the strongest Central Banks around the globe are diversifying away from the dollar, why shouldn’t you?

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 15, 2010, 12:40:11 PM
Interesting Newsletter Article

The End of a Currency Era

Why the Hong Kong Dollar’s End Will Mark the Beginning of a New Reserve Currency

By Evaldo Albuquerque

Have you ever heard of a Cruzeiro, Escudo, Deutschemark, Peseta, or Sucre?

If not, I’ll give you a hint. If there was a currency cemetery, you would find a headstone with each one of these names.

That’s right: They are all dead, long gone currencies. While hyperinflation destroyed some of these currencies, most were simply replaced by the dollar or the euro.

Now there’s one more currency that’s about to be buried: the Hong-Kong dollar.

But it will not follow the typical “dollarization” or “euroization” path. And the implications of that go well beyond Hong Kong. In fact, the Hong Kong dollar’s end could be the very event that introduces a new reserve currency into the world.

Let me explain…

Why Hong Kong Citizens Are Ditching Their Own Currency

Our emerging market strategist Jeff Opdyke just returned from a trip to Hong Kong and Singapore. While in Asia, he met with several local business contacts. Overall, Jeff says most locals believe the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) will go the way of obsolete currencies soon.

They expect the Chinese yuan (CNY) will replace the Hong Kong dollar.

For good reason. As I mentioned in my previous article, the Chinese yuan is gaining in prominence with each passing month.

A few months ago, you could buy yuan outside of China, but you were only allowed to convert it back to the original currency if you were inside the country. That has changed.

Jeff says you can now open bank accounts in Hong Kong to hold yuan directly. And you can trade it back and forth into whatever major currency you wish, as often as you wish.

China already allows Hong Kong residents to buy as much as HKD 20,000 (US$2,500) worth of yuan per day. And a lot of local residents Jeff spoke with are taking advantage of that. They are loading up on the Chinese currency.

These locals believe it is just a matter of time before the yuan replaces the Hong Kong dollar for good. They know the yuan is deeply undervalued against the dollar. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the buck, so that means the yuan is also undervalued against Hong Kong’s currency.

That’s why yuan denominated deposits in Hong Kong are about to go parabolic. Just this past August, Hong Kong's yuan deposits surged 26%. Some estimate that in one year yuan deposits will reach at least CNY 500bn, increasing the current yuan deposit base fivefold.

Going Regional Before it Goes Global

Do Hong Kong citizens know something that we don’t? Not really. We warned you before.
Last month, I told you why the yuan could replace the dollar by 2015. In that article I showed you how China is planting the seeds of a powerful reserve currency. What’s going on in Hong Kong is part of a much bigger plan.

China wants the yuan to become a world reserve currency fairly soon. China's allowance of a freely traded yuan in Hong Kong is one more step towards freeing the currency completely.

Becoming a regional currency it’s a natural step before the yuan can effectively capture the dollar’s place as a reserve currency.

And China continues to push its agenda forward. For example, President Hu Jintao just said that China will support a Russian proposal to commence direct trading between the yuan and the Russian ruble.

China is also trying to develop its Forex, bond and equity markets to meet different investor demands. As China’s capital markets continue to mature, more and more people will invest in Chinese yuan assets. That will just provide more support to the yuan.

While the yuan continues to gain international ground, the Fed is preparing to print up more money, flushing the dollar down the toilet.

Maybe that’s why a former member of the Chinese Central Bank recently told an audience in Singapore that we are “one step nearer to a U.S. dollar crisis.”

What Does This All Mean to You?
After this conversation with Jeff, it seems crystal clear that Asia views the Hong Kong dollar as a currency with a fairly short life span.

The HKD is heading towards extinction. And it’s a mistake to think that this development has no implications for U.S. investors.

The yuan is becoming more and more popular in Asia. That not only sets the stage for the yuan to gain importance in the international scenario, but also puts the U.S. dollar in a dangerous situation.

And if you’re holding all of your assets in dollars, like the majority of Americans do, that puts your finances in danger.

The dollar has already been losing status in the international market for some time. In recent years countries like China, India, Brazil and Russia have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar. That’s one explanation behind the long period of dollar weakness between 2002 and 2008.

That process will only accelerate in the coming years. If some of the strongest Central Banks around the globe are diversifying away from the dollar, why shouldn’t you?



Cuffy for anyone that has travelled to China and Hong Kong it is not secret that China is trying to exert more control over Hong Kong, that is what this is about.  Hong Kong and Macau are special administrative regions (SARs) of China.  They enjoy "a high degree of autonomy" in in all matters except foreign relations and military defence.  If China can subtly replace the Hong Kong dollar with the yuan China is then able to exert far more control over the economy of Hong Kong.  

Will China be able to replace the HKD by 2015 possibly but doubtful.  Even if China continues on its current economic rise it can't let the yuan appreciate by any more than a percent or two every couple of years or that economic rise will start to putter out.  What most people don't understand is China thinks generations ahead and are willing to wait for the results. The HKD might be replaced by 2025 and even then the yuan is not even close to being a regional reserve currency, that would be a couple of more generations away.  

  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 16, 2010, 01:25:57 PM
Now that Gold and Silver appear to be on a USA based ultrainflationary tear (mega rise) and somewhat risky - curious what folks think of the idea of Commodity Basket CDs - liquid cash investments that pay interest with currencies from the countries that are actually some of the major Gold and Silver producers among many other commodities - got to like the marketing "Global Power Shift Basket CDs"

https://www.everbank.com/personal/foreign-currencies.aspx

Investment-themed CDs—each with 3 or more foreign currencies
Commodity-Themed Basket CDs
Resource rich countries
Global Power Shift® Basket CD»
Australian dollar, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar & Norwegian krone

CommoditySM Basket CD»
Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar & South African rand

Ultra Resource® Basket CD»
Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Hong kong dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone & Singapore dollar

Economic-Themed Basket CDs
Debt-FreeSM Basket CD»
Australian dollar, Brazilian real, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar & Swiss franc
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 17, 2010, 09:08:06 AM
Now that Gold and Silver appear to be on a USA based ultrainflationary tear (mega rise) and somewhat risky - curious what folks think of the idea of Commodity Basket CDs - liquid cash investments that pay interest with currencies from the countries that are actually some of the major Gold and Silver producers among many other commodities - got to like the marketing "Global Power Shift Basket CDs"

I'm not a currency investor or day trader and I don't have CD's in my portfolio so I'm probably the least qualified among us to make any predictions Cuffy. :chuckle:

However, as far as the Loonie is concerned; although we (Canada) have a strong economic forecast for 2011, is not part of the current surge with CAD due (at least in part) to the global sell off and constant downward pressure of the Greenback and should that trend reverse, wouldn't the loonie fall correspondingly?

Edit: I should probably add or is my question even relevant? ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 17, 2010, 12:43:01 PM

Gutting the dollar is now official!
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.   10-17-10


It’s official now. The Fed said it in their meeting notes. And Bernanke said it again on Friday:

He’s going to run the money printing presses.

It’s the same trick we’ve seen in countries like Brazil, Argentina and Russia. It’s the age-old tactic of GUTTING THE CURRENCY — this time targeting the most important one on Earth, the U.S. dollar.

Larry Edelson has been warning about this for many moons. Our friend Franz Pick warned about it almost a half century ago. My father, J. Irving Weiss, issued his warnings about similar dangers even earlier.

How did they know? Because trashing paper currency is an insidious tactic that governments the world over have repeatedly used when skyrocketing deficits and debt threatened the collapse of their economies. It never works. It always ends in disaster.

And now …

Here it is — striking the U.S.
dollar directly and relentlessly!
Right before our very eyes!
I had hoped I’d never live to see this day. Now, here it is in aces and spades.

Our own Fed chairman has virtually sworn on a stack of bibles that he’s not only going to print paper money … he’s going to do it FAST!

Doesn’t he realize that every time a government plays these games, the majority of its people suffer? Doesn’t he know that our wealth is hopelessly eroded by the falling value of our currency? Doesn’t he remember the lessons of history?

Of course he does!

The real problem is he doesn’t seem to care. No matter how LOW the chances of these old tricks working … and no matter how HIGH the probability that they will backfire … Bernanke is determined to plow ahead ANYHOW!

Indeed, the fast track for Bernanke’s plan is no longer in dispute. And there’s no disputing how the markets are voting either:

Despite some profit-taking on Friday, gold continues to trade well above the $1,350 level, keeping it poised for further new record highs.
Select commodities are rising at an even faster clip.
The dollar is sitting very near a fatal tipping point — its lowest level in history.
Good luck and God bless!

Martin
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 17, 2010, 12:59:48 PM

Gutting the dollar is now official!
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.   10-17-10


It’s official now. The Fed said it in their meeting notes. And Bernanke said it again on Friday:

He’s going to run the money printing presses.

It’s the same trick we’ve seen in countries like Brazil, Argentina and Russia. It’s the age-old tactic of GUTTING THE CURRENCY — this time targeting the most important one on Earth, the U.S. dollar.

Larry Edelson has been warning about this for many moons. Our friend Franz Pick warned about it almost a half century ago. My father, J. Irving Weiss, issued his warnings about similar dangers even earlier.

How did they know? Because trashing paper currency is an insidious tactic that governments the world over have repeatedly used when skyrocketing deficits and debt threatened the collapse of their economies. It never works. It always ends in disaster.

And now …

Here it is — striking the U.S.
dollar directly and relentlessly!
Right before our very eyes!
I had hoped I’d never live to see this day. Now, here it is in aces and spades.

Our own Fed chairman has virtually sworn on a stack of bibles that he’s not only going to print paper money … he’s going to do it FAST!

Doesn’t he realize that every time a government plays these games, the majority of its people suffer? Doesn’t he know that our wealth is hopelessly eroded by the falling value of our currency? Doesn’t he remember the lessons of history?

Of course he does!

The real problem is he doesn’t seem to care. No matter how LOW the chances of these old tricks working … and no matter how HIGH the probability that they will backfire … Bernanke is determined to plow ahead ANYHOW!

Indeed, the fast track for Bernanke’s plan is no longer in dispute. And there’s no disputing how the markets are voting either:

Despite some profit-taking on Friday, gold continues to trade well above the $1,350 level, keeping it poised for further new record highs.
Select commodities are rising at an even faster clip.
The dollar is sitting very near a fatal tipping point — its lowest level in history.
Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Interestly Martin Weiss' Phd is in cultural anthropology from Columbia University.  For all the financial analysis Weiss is doing one would expect his doctorate to be in economics or finance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_D._Weiss
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on October 17, 2010, 02:50:35 PM
Interestingly,... it really doesn't matter if if Phd. is in coconut growing,....... if he is right. History says he is.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Vinnvinny on October 17, 2010, 05:42:25 PM
... Commodity Basket CDs

Never heard of em. Were they the ones who won last years American X-Factor?  :popcorn:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 18, 2010, 07:06:51 PM
Quote
Despite some profit-taking on Friday, gold continues to trade well above the $1,350 level, keeping it poised for further new record highs.
Select commodities are rising at an even faster clip.
The dollar is sitting very near a fatal tipping point — its lowest level in history.
Good luck and God bless!

Martin

funny how some on this here board speak about a "gold bubble"

I think it is more accurate to talk about the "dollar bubble" as your article on "fedspeak" (acronym to Orwells 1984 "newspeak") clearly states they will go for the nuclear option to get ridd of all debts and liabilities.

Me thinking China is pretty pissed holding over 2 trillion worth in (soon to be)  funny monopoly money. They might dump it and just buy all the gold in sight before it totally turns to toilet paper;

Wich would mean gold is going easily over 5k in the comming month

And i bought that stuff at 0.8k

Is this funny or what?

Anyone here on fixed income married to a very young hot smokingnova

Big loyalty test comming up!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 18, 2010, 10:58:05 PM
Quote
Despite some profit-taking on Friday, gold continues to trade well above the $1,350 level, keeping it poised for further new record highs.
Select commodities are rising at an even faster clip.
The dollar is sitting very near a fatal tipping point — its lowest level in history.
Good luck and God bless!

Martin

funny how some on this here board speak about a "gold bubble"

I think it is more accurate to talk about the "dollar bubble" as your article on "fedspeak" (acronym to Orwells 1984 "newspeak") clearly states they will go for the nuclear option to get ridd of all debts and liabilities.

Me thinking China is pretty pissed holding over 2 trillion worth in (soon to be)  funny monopoly money. They might dump it and just buy all the gold in sight before it totally turns to toilet paper;

Wich would mean gold is going easily over 5k in the comming month

And i bought that stuff at 0.8k

Is this funny or what?

Anyone here on fixed income married to a very young hot smokingnova

Big loyalty test comming up!!!

I agree with this JC. Gold isn't going up, the dollar is going down, that's what we are witnessing right now. Siver went up 25% since summer. I think that silver eagles and maple leaves are going to be the new every day currancy here for a while. So if you can get them now is the time.
Ray, I hope you are not holding a lot of cash in CDs or money market accounts. If you don't believe in precious metals at least put some money in foregn currency - Australian, Chinese, Canadian, Swiss.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 19, 2010, 04:38:37 AM
I do agree with you that one big factor in the price of gold increasing has been the dollar decreasing in value.  I do wonder how much of the increase is based on that though.  Gasoline has gone up but not that much, junk made in China doesn't seem to have gone up.  Yes, other currencies have gone up relative to the dollar and that would have an effect on the price of gold.   I do agree with you but I do think some of the inceases have been because of the speculation and increased concern about the future of the USA.

No, I don't have that much money in CD's or Money Markets so no sweat there.  Hey, I actually don't have much money in anything.  I am not rich like some of the guys here.

The weakness of the dollar has actually helped me.  Export is a part of my business and with my industry tied to an extent to the housing market the crash has had a big effect.  The part of my business that is doing well is the export part of my business which has been stronger than before.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 19, 2010, 04:48:41 AM

funny how some on this here board speak about a "gold bubble"

I think it is more accurate to talk about the "dollar bubble" as your article on "fedspeak" (acronym to Orwells 1984 "newspeak") clearly states they will go for the nuclear option to get ridd of all debts and liabilities.

Wich would mean gold is going easily over 5k in the comming month


I am at a loss to see anything that would give me any thoughts about a dollar bubble. 


Anyone here on fixed income married to a very young hot smokingnova

Big loyalty test comming up!!!

I am sure anyone in that catagory is shaking in their boots and probably needs a much more freqent change of their adult pampers.

I am not sure why someone with a fixed income would be any worse off than anyone else.  Usually they don't have to worry about layoffs or plant closings the way many working stiffs do. 

Actually if there is a BIG loyalty test coming up then thats a good thing, pass or fail.  If someone has a woman by his side who is there only for financial reasons losing her would be the best thing that could happen to him.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Herrie on October 19, 2010, 05:14:09 AM
.... junk made in China doesn't seem to have gone up.  Yes, other currencies have gone up relative to the dollar and that would have an effect on the price of gold.  ....
Isn't the Yuan rate directly linked to the US Dollar rate and therefore if US Dollar goes down, so does Yuan and when it goes up Yuan does as well? This might explain why you don't see a difference in Chinese goods. At least that's how they explained it over here in the media when they were discussing the (dis)advantages of the "high" Euro.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 19, 2010, 06:57:21 AM
Yes, it is. Good point. I do think most Americans would not notice a change from the dollars loss in value though.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 19, 2010, 08:25:42 AM
A low dollar creates more jobs in the USA and makes USA goods more attractive.

Look over the past three years the Euro always gets stronger against the dollar in the fall.  Than in beginning of the year the Euro gets weaker.  There is a reason for this. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 19, 2010, 01:27:22 PM
Well looks like we are fighting a global economic war with China the only way we can - they won't allow the Yuan to be freely tradable based upon its real value (rise dramatically against the dollar) so the US is letting the dollar freefall - at some point it will have the effect of making our exports very attractive and making it much more economical to bring quality manufacturing back to the USA (the Chinese can keep their cheap textile and plastic junk biz).

Ironic that the Chinese only respect strength and letting our dollar freefall will make our exports stronger and bring high value add quality work to the USA (i.e. Japanese and German Auto Plants)...

At a certain point China will have to capitulate and let their Yuan float and remove the parasitic peg to the dollar otherwise their raw materials costs will explode in dollar terms and make their factories non-competitive as they are already working their slave laborers at max capacity:

Incredible that we allow products to enter the country made with 6 cents an hour slave labor in violation of all international labor standards:

http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/chinablue/film.html

They live crowded together in cement factory dormitories where water has to be carried upstairs in buckets. Their meals and rent are deducted from their wages, which amount to less than a dollar a day. Most of the jeans they make in the factory are purchased by retailers in the U.S. and other countries. CHINA BLUE takes viewers inside a blue jeans factory in southern China, where teenage workers struggle to survive harsh working conditions. Providing perspectives from both the top and bottom levels of the factory’s hierarchy, the film looks at complex issues of globalization from the human level.

Seventeen-year-old Jasmine left her home village for a factory job in the city. There, like an estimated 130 million migrant workers on the move in China, most of them young women, she finds factory employment assembling denim clothing for export to overseas companies. She shares a room with 12 other girls and labors every day from 8 a.m. until 2 a.m., seven days a week, removing lint and snipping the loose threads from the seams of denim jeans. Jasmine’s initial excitement to be able to help her family with her wages quickly dissipates as she is overwhelmed by the long work hours and the delays in pay. The strong friendships she forms with her co-workers and memories of home are her only solace. The "new era” of economic progress in China has also created a new generation of entrepreneurs like Mr. Lam, a former police chief who is now the owner of the factory where Jasmine works. To get a new order from a promising British buyer, Mr. Lam must agree to extremely low prices and a very tight delivery schedule. For the deal to work, he cuts his workers' pay and requires them to work around the clock.

While CHINA BLUE shows how the global economic system leaves the Chinese factory owner with few choices, it also explores in detail what that means for the workers. Anxious to avoid getting fined for falling asleep on the job, Jasmine and her friend Li Ping sneak out of the factory to buy energy tea, but they get caught and are fined. Other workers resort to clipping clothespins on their eyelids to keep their eyes open. When the workers’ endurance reaches a breaking point, their only recourse may be a strike, which is illegal in China.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 19, 2010, 02:12:04 PM
I thought the US News and world report had an interesting article on Gold.  Here it is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-May-Rise-But-Is-It-usnews-394308882.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

One of the parts I particularly thought was good was the following. 

Unlike jewelry or industrial demand for the metal, which remains somewhat steady, investment demand climbs and falls at a much steeper rate. But as history has taught us--with the 1980 gold bubble, the dot-com bubble, the Japanese financial bubble, and the recent housing bubble--when any asset class is overridden with buyers, new information or a change in sentiment can quickly cause a run that quickly destroys the gains of a decade.

I also noticed they used the word "bubble" a lot in their article.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 19, 2010, 02:21:09 PM
I thought the US News and world report had an interesting article on Gold.  Here it is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-May-Rise-But-Is-It-usnews-394308882.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

One of the parts I particularly thought was good was the following. 

Unlike jewelry or industrial demand for the metal, which remains somewhat steady, investment demand climbs and falls at a much steeper rate. But as history has taught us--with the 1980 gold bubble, the dot-com bubble, the Japanese financial bubble, and the recent housing bubble--when any asset class is overridden with buyers, new information or a change in sentiment can quickly cause a run that quickly destroys the gains of a decade.

I also noticed they used the word "bubble" a lot in their article.



The article states "At the moment, more than 50 percent of gold is going into investment demand..."  If that's true there's no doubt that there is a bubble in gold investment.  The only question is, are we close to the bubble bursting?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 19, 2010, 03:17:39 PM
Read same article.  Gold is being manipulated by big investors.  For people who cannot afford to lose money gold is risky at current levels. 

Day trading still the way to go with so many people hot about gold right now.  However with current 2% drop today double digit daily gains are gone. 

The questions to ask yourself is gold going to 2,000 or to 1,000 next.  I have no idea but the option method I know works on gold.  If you think gold is going to 2,000 or you know how to play options than buy if not there are better places to put your money. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 19, 2010, 06:41:08 PM
I thought the US News and world report had an interesting article on Gold.  Here it is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-May-Rise-But-Is-It-usnews-394308882.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

One of the parts I particularly thought was good was the following.  

Unlike jewelry or industrial demand for the metal, which remains somewhat steady, investment demand climbs and falls at a much steeper rate. But as history has taught us--with the 1980 gold bubble, the dot-com bubble, the Japanese financial bubble, and the recent housing bubble--when any asset class is overridden with buyers, new information or a change in sentiment can quickly cause a run that quickly destroys the gains of a decade.

I also noticed they used the word "bubble" a lot in their article.

Since US News/yahoo news are just ones of those mainstream media, this article claiming that gold is a bubble just proves my point...  It seems that CNN has been frequently airing stories saying that we have a “gold bubble”. Just the fact alone that yahoo news, CNN, FOX or any mainstream news say gold is a bubble, proves it’s not a bubble...  Those mainstream media is really nothing more than a propaganda machine telling us what the global elite want us to think.  Whatever the mainstream media says, the real truth is always the opposite of what they say...  

Gold will only become a bubble if the U.S. government eliminates most of its departments, defaults on its Social Security/Medicare obligations, cutting up all of those entitlement programs, and shrinks the military-industrial complex, AND the Federal Reserve dramatically raises interest rates.

Obviously, the US government has not done anything to solve their financial problems and the federal reserve banks are still keeping the interest rate very low.  Considering Ben Bernanke's philosophy, it is inevitable that the feds are going to running up the printing press like crazy to let people to pay off all of their debts at the same time watching the value of US Dollar falling from the cliff...  

It is so amusing to see how people here on RUA think that gold is still a bubble...   Let's wait to see what happens on the next few years and find out who is right...  I am betting on my money that those people who hold their gold/silver are going to win a BIG time!   :party0011:      
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 19, 2010, 08:36:28 PM
Read same article.  Gold is being manipulated by big investors.  For people who cannot afford to lose money gold is risky at current levels. 

Day trading still the way to go with so many people hot about gold right now.  However with current 2% drop today double digit daily gains are gone. 

The questions to ask yourself is gold going to 2,000 or to 1,000 next.  I have no idea but the option method I know works on gold.  If you think gold is going to 2,000 or you know how to play options than buy if not there are better places to put your money. 


Day Trading/playing options may be your expertise.  It may work according to your own world...

However, the reality is that there are many people out there who have no skills and experiences in doing the day trading/playing options.  It is way too risky for them to pursue in.  They would rather to work to earn paycheck in USD, enjoy being with their families, having fun out there and so on.  They may have much better things to do with their time than having to spend hours and hours studying and following the market trends, studying company financial statements and so on... 

For those kind of people, the safest assets that they can be able to hold in order increase and maintain their purchasing power are physical gold/sliver such as coins, bars, rounds and ingots...  Right now, US Dollar is way, way too risky to hold...   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 20, 2010, 01:29:52 AM
For those kind of people, the safest assets that they can be able to hold in order increase and maintain their purchasing power are physical gold/sliver such as coins, bars, rounds and ingots...  Right now, US Dollar is way, way too risky to hold...   
I agree, Brian
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 20, 2010, 06:59:57 AM
For those kind of people, the safest assets that they can be able to hold in order increase and maintain their purchasing power are physical gold/sliver such as coins, bars, rounds and ingots...  Right now, US Dollar is way, way too risky to hold...   

I don't see why gold would be the safest asset that can maintain purchasing power.   Three or four years ago people would have said that about houses. 

Basically everyone buying gold is speculating that disaster lies ahead and perhaps with the idiots we have running the country it is.  If however as the country has pulled itself out of worse situations before, if by some luck of fate it does it again then gold may well follow the pattern of real estate in Florida, California and other places. 

Right now half of all the money going into gold is for speculation and the other half is for jewelery, electronics etc.  If the economy does recover that half going into gold is likely to stop, those speculating in gold and seeing the floor falling out of the price of gold are likely to dump it and gold may well return to somewhere near or even below the cost to produce it of $ 400.00 an ounce.  Gold dropped dramatically back in 1980 and it could happen again.  I am sure with the price of gold the mines have their production ramped up as much as possible.  It would well go into a situation where supply is far ahead of demand and that will always result in lower prices.

If the economy does really crash a far safer way to survive and maintain value of ones money might be to buy 50 acres and a tractor in Montana or the like.  In a worst case scenario being able to produce food would keep one from starving and provide a way of producing something that could be traded for that gold the others speculated in and probably the value of gold to a starving man will be far less then the price of a side of beef or a few bushels of grain.

For those who got into gold early such as JC they might do OK.  I do think someone starting to invest in gold right now is taking a risk. 

It seems funny to me that speculating in gold would scare me but other things that scare others such as stocks in this market don't.  That doesn't mean that I am right or that those who are stockpiling a miniature version of Ft Knox my not be the wisest ones around.  I just see both the chance of good profits and the chance of big losses.  It could be very smart to put 10% of your investment money in gold but someone who bets the farm on it may get very hurt.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 20, 2010, 08:41:50 AM
Ray,
I think you give an excellent advice in regard to buying land and setting up a farm to grow food. I believe that if our economy will collapse, farmers are going to be some of the only people who will do well under those conditions.
As far as "gold bubble" is concerned I frankly disagree. The dollar will continue loosing value until our government changes it's course radically and the dollar undergoes some kind of reform. But one needs to be out of gold before that happens.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 20, 2010, 09:26:08 AM
My own personal "guess" is that the gold bubble is nowhere near bursting at this moment.  I would be quite shocked to wake up a week from now and find gold selling for $ 500.00 an ounce.  That is just not in the cards with all that is going on in the economy and in politics. 

I do think someday it will sell for less than it does now, maybe a lot less.  I also think before that happens it may sell for a lot more than it does now.  If someone gets out in time they will do fine.   Sometimes knowing when that time is can be a very difficult thing.  Usually when everyone is saying things will go up is when the crash and sometimes when the outlook is bleak things will do the opposite of what people expect.  If everyone had a working crystal ball everyone could get rich quick in either gold or the stock market. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 20, 2010, 09:46:20 AM
 
Quote from: Ray
It could be very smart to put 10% of your investment money in gold but someone who bets the farm on it may get very hurt.

I think this could be said for any stock/acquisition/investment, Ray. Putting all your eggs in one basket is very high risk at the best of times. For me (as you've probably guessed by my posts up thread), I've recently purchased precious metals (fund) but only 5% of my overall portfolio. If it shoots through the roof, good stuff. If it falls through the floor, bummer, but it won't kill my long term investment strategy.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 20, 2010, 10:08:05 AM
My own personal "guess" is that the gold bubble is nowhere near bursting at this moment.  I would be quite shocked to wake up a week from now and find gold selling for $ 500.00 an ounce.  That is just not in the cards with all that is going on in the economy and in politics. 

I do think someday it will sell for less than it does now, maybe a lot less.  I also think before that happens it may sell for a lot more than it does now.  If someone gets out in time they will do fine.   Sometimes knowing when that time is can be a very difficult thing.  Usually when everyone is saying things will go up is when the crash and sometimes when the outlook is bleak things will do the opposite of what people expect.  If everyone had a working crystal ball everyone could get rich quick in either gold or the stock market. 
this I agree with, Ray.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 20, 2010, 10:11:59 AM
khelkov,  options on gold takes 2 minutes a day.  Not sure where your getting the hours of pouring over information.  Options are simple you either understand or do not.  If you have to pour over information to make a decision it is to late.  To make money with options you need high demand and fear.  Gold is that right now.  

I do agree when it comes to investing your either smart or stupid and most people are stupid.  

Golds value is jewelry and fear.  The fear will go away at some time.  

The average Joe who puts there money in gold will not keep up with inflation.  Gold has been logging behind inflation for years.  

Winning big time is that 200% return or less?  Define the return % and when you want to measure the price of gold.
 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 20, 2010, 05:24:03 PM
My own personal "guess" is that the gold bubble is nowhere near bursting at this moment.  I would be quite shocked to wake up a week from now and find gold selling for $ 500.00 an ounce.  That is just not in the cards with all that is going on in the economy and in politics.  

I do think someday it will sell for less than it does now, maybe a lot less.  I also think before that happens it may sell for a lot more than it does now.  If someone gets out in time they will do fine.   Sometimes knowing when that time is can be a very difficult thing.  Usually when everyone is saying things will go up is when the crash and sometimes when the outlook is bleak things will do the opposite of what people expect.  If everyone had a working crystal ball everyone could get rich quick in either gold or the stock market.  

That's what I agree with...  Right now, Gold/Dow ratio is at 8.2...   The time to diversify out of Gold/silver and invest into real estate/stocks is when Gold/Dow ratio reaches 1...  That is what I plan to do when the hyperinflation takes place, when I am going to buy real estate/raw lands with my gold/silver money.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 20, 2010, 05:51:37 PM

Golds value is jewelry and fear.  The fear will go away at some time.  

The average Joe who puts there money in gold will not keep up with inflation.  Gold has been logging behind inflation for years.  


Gold is going to be valued as money when hyperinflation takes place....  Gold always has been money for many centuries... 

The real fear is going to be those who holds all of their money in USD and government bonds.  I wouldn't be surprised when the huge inflation storm takes over, those people are going to run around so scared and desperate for gold/silver money as they can't spend their USD...

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 21, 2010, 07:25:12 AM
Quote
Golds value is jewelry and fear.

a value of a commodity is dependant on its scarcity.

The government can print Dollars

The government cannot print Gold (or other rare earth metals) and it takes great effort to mine and purify it.


How hard is this simple equation to understand?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on October 21, 2010, 09:45:28 AM
If I may offer a small correction:

a value of a commodity is dependant on its perceived scarcity.

Many times the difference between perception and reality is huge. Just sayin'
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 21, 2010, 07:35:25 PM
The reason metals are pulling back right now is because Tim Geithner assured every one that "no, dollar is not going to be devalued!" Oh no, off course not! Do you guys believe it? The fact that he is even sayng this is a sure sign of what's coming. Dollar is gonna be worth nothing and precious metals are going to go through the roof (only relative to the US dollar, off course). As I said before, an average new car is still going to be worth about 30 ounces of gold and an average house 150 ounces of gold. What it's going to be in dollars, your guess is a good as mine... it will sound good though "hey I live in a 30 million dollar house!" ($200,000 in todays dollars). I think it's coming, the sheet is going to hit the fence in a couple of years. I's gonna git me some chikens and live on fresh eggs every morning  :biggrin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 21, 2010, 09:01:27 PM
As I said before, an average new car is still going to be worth about 30 ounces of gold and an average house 150 ounces of gold. What it's going to be in dollars, your guess is a good as mine... it will sound good though "hey I live in a 30 million dollar house!" ($200,000 in todays dollars).

 :ROFL:   :ROFL:   :ROFL:   That's good one!  

I can imagine some people thinking when watching their salary and house price going up a big time due to hyperinflation, "Ooooh Wow!  I am a multi-millionaire living in a million dollar house!  Whoo!!!  Awesome!  I am so rich!!   :king:"    :ROFL:   :ROFL:



 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 22, 2010, 03:43:17 AM
If I may offer a small correction:

a value of a commodity is dependant on its perceived scarcity.

Many times the difference between perception and reality is huge. Just sayin'

I will agree with you to a degree, but value involves much more than scarcity.   There are lots of scarce things that normal people don't speculate in.   Why not collect plutonium or uranium which are both scarcer than gold but the answer is obvious, well how about dinosaur dung.  That is scarcer than gold too and it won't kill you and can be weighted so it could be sold by the ounce.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 22, 2010, 03:45:42 AM
I can imagine some people thinking when watching their salary and house price going up a big time due to hyperinflation, "Ooooh Wow!  I am a multi-millionaire living in a million dollar house!  Whoo!!!  Awesome!  I am so rich!!   :king:"    :ROFL:   :ROFL:
  

Change the word hyperinflation to "rapid growth in real estate prices" and isn' that  exactly what people were thinking a few years ago when they speculated in the last bubble, real estate.   I think most all were thinking, a few more years and I will be a multi millionare with a million dollar house.  Now some of those same 'soon to be millionares'
are in homeless shelters.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 22, 2010, 03:56:17 AM
I think it would be interesting to be able to insert a poll right in the middle of this discussion now that said something like.

1.  My interest in gold is to specualte and make a lot of easy money.

2.  My interest in gold it to preserve the value of my assets in the event of a disaster in the ecomomy of the usa or the world.

I think it would be fun to post that poll, and then wait a few days and ask you all this question.

For those of you who picked 2, as I think most would.   Suppose you woke up tomorrow morning and the headlines were that in a joint meeting of world leaders and economic advisers the decision was made to perminantly and forever to fix gold prices at yesterdays closing price and all gold would be bought and sold at those prices except that once a year that price would be adjusted for inflation.   Something like this was the case for ages in the past when gold was fixed at $ 35.00 an ounce. 

If they did that it would be absolutely perfect for those who voted for number 2.  Your worth invested in gold would be preserved perfectly with the leaders of the whole world guaranee your assets will be preserved. 

So then my next question is, if something like that happend how many who voted for number 2 would have the least interest in investing in gold.  I bet not many. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 22, 2010, 08:22:59 AM
Quote
a value of a commodity is dependant on its perceived scarcity.

perceived? [edit-inflammatory. Brass] Au (the atom of gold) is pretty hard to find.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on October 22, 2010, 09:23:47 AM
If I may offer a small correction:

a value of a commodity is dependant on its perceived scarcity.

Many times the difference between perception and reality is huge. Just sayin'

I will agree with you to a degree, but value involves much more than scarcity.   There are lots of scarce things that normal people don't speculate in.   Why not collect plutonium or uranium which are both scarcer than gold but the answer is obvious, well how about dinosaur dung.  That is scarcer than gold too and it won't kill you and can be weighted so it could be sold by the ounce.


Tourbo,

Of course there is more to it, and that is where perceived comes into play. People also have to want it (demand). If it is perceived that demand is increasing, the cost/value will go up. The demand does not necessarily have increase, people only need to perceive that that it has. Hence the word "speculation".


Quote
perceived? [edit-inflammatory. Brass] Au (the atom of gold) is pretty hard to find.

JC,

Being hard to find does not, by default, does not make it scarce. I would imagine an equal amount of effort would be required to find a single atom of iron, oxygen or silicon, all of which are in abundance here on the planet [Edit - out of context. Brass]. But who was talking about a single atom?   :coffeeread:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 22, 2010, 09:27:09 AM
Quote
Being hard to find does not, by default, does not make it scarce.

Well actualy that is exactly how it works [edit-inflammatory. Brass].

Quote
I would imagine an equal amount of effort would be required to find a single atom of iron, oxygen or silicon,

You imagine incorrectly, thats not true!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on October 22, 2010, 09:35:47 AM
Quote
Being hard to find does not, by default, does not make it scarce.

Well actualy that is exactly how it works .

[edit-out of context. Brass]

Quote
Quote
I would imagine an equal amount of effort would be required to find a single atom of iron, oxygen or silicon,

You imagine incorrectly, thats not true!



Cool, send me an atom of your choice!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 22, 2010, 09:50:54 AM
Take a good wiff, you would get a couple of kabillions
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 22, 2010, 09:58:12 AM
Turbo,

Of course there is more to it, and that is where perceived comes into play. People also have to want it (demand). If it is perceived that demand is increasing, the cost/value will go up. The demand does not necessarily have increase, people only need to perceive that that it has. Hence the word "speculation".



Very true Harry and so much of speculation is pretty similar to mob psychology.  People see prices shooting up they get almost in a frenzy to get in and they see the bottom falling out they panic to get out.  When the stock market is at record highs everyone wants to buy and when it is at record lows they want to get out.   I guess most have never heard of "buy cheap and sell high".   It happened with internet stocks where some 22 year old kid had little more than an office and a url and was worth a hundred million one day and nothing the next, with real estate when prices got so high there was no real value in them and with lots of other things thoughout history.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 22, 2010, 10:52:44 AM
There was this 23 yr old chemist you found a way to mass produce aluminium relativly cheaply in the 1920's.

I dont think Boeing, Grummann or McDonald Douglas are bubble companies.

Mja, we live in what is called Western civilisation, created by scientist and engineers, no sense talking about what really matters to someone who has a skewed perception of reality madup of "bubble" gum.
 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 22, 2010, 12:05:29 PM
There was this 23 yr old chemist you found a way to mass produce aluminium relativly cheaply in the 1920's.

I dont think Boeing, Grummann or McDonald Douglas are bubble companies.

Mja, we live in what is called Western civilisation, created by scientist and engineers, no sense talking about what really matters to someone who has a skewed perception of reality madup of "bubble" gum.
 

Speaking of "no sense" I can't make sense of what you mean with that post.   There was also a stone aged cave man who invented the wheel but his patent ran out before he could make his millions.

Personally the way technology changes, I doubt that gold will still be mined in 50 years.  My guess is that there will be some kind of machine where they dump in something like lead on one side, bombard it with something and gold comes out the bottom at a very low cost.   Not that this will effect the price of gold next month.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on October 22, 2010, 03:35:15 PM
Rare elements!

There was/is a film with Bruce Willis where the element was woman ♀: innocent: &  :innocent:  I want to say an Ukraine/Yugoslavia version ~ somewhat unstable but with out doubt beautiful and wonderful ~ in short a rare and valuable  type.

Anyways some of us have found this element - others have had a taste and still others only dream of it.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 22, 2010, 04:28:11 PM
Quote
Speaking of "no sense" I can't make sense of what you mean with that post.

I am not surprised

Quote
Personally the way technology changes,

Why is the word "pesonally" (meaning you) and "technology" in the same sentance?

Quote
My guess is that there will be some kind of machine where they dump in something like lead on one side, bombard it with something and gold comes out the bottom at a very low cost.

I see you didnt ace physics either.


@AvHdB

To funny, I like that hotsokingnovagirl!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 24, 2010, 06:30:00 AM
Quote
Speaking of "no sense" I can't make sense of what you mean with that post.

I am not surprised

Quote
Personally the way technology changes,


I am sure JC, that is must be difficult to discuss things with those with a vastly inferior intelect.  I just couldn't see the correlation between Aluminum and the production of aircraft with speculation in the price of gold.  Perhaps you would care to elaborate.  Maybe there was a speculative bubble in the price of aluminum in the 1920's or so that I was unaware of.  There is definitely something in that post for which the meaning is not getting through my thick skull. 

Why is the word "pesonally" (meaning you) and "technology" in the same sentance?



This part made me laugh a bit.  Actually I see something close to that all the time.  If I wanted someone to guess the name of the business I own that would make a pretty good clue since it happens to be "Turbo Technologies, Inc."   I thought that was a bit funny.

Quote
My guess is that there will be some kind of machine where they dump in something like lead on one side, bombard it with something and gold comes out the bottom at a very low cost.

I see you didnt ace physics either.


I was just trying to be kind to my friends here who have invested in gold.  Had I gotten more specific about how the machine would be made, what they would add and what they would bombard it with there would be too much of a chance someone would go out and build it and all my friends with investments in gold would have been wiped out.

Actually physics was my favorite subject and I almost even passed it which would have been very unusual for me to pass anything except gas.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 24, 2010, 01:28:34 PM
Quote
If I wanted someone to guess the name of the business I own that would make a pretty good clue since it happens to be "Turbo Technologies, Inc."   I thought that was a bit funny.

[edit-nonsensical/inflammatory. Brass]

Quote
Actually physics was my favorite subject and I almost even passed it which would have been very unusual for me to pass anything except gas.

Sometimes who got to let go of some hot air.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on October 24, 2010, 02:10:12 PM
Quote
Being hard to find does not, by default, does not make it scarce.

Well actualy that is exactly how it works [edit-inflammatory. Brass].

Quote
I would imagine an equal amount of effort would be required to find a single atom of iron, oxygen or silicon,

You imagine incorrectly, thats not true!



[edit-inflammatory. Brass] It is estimated that less than 10% of the total gold in the planet has been discovered. It is a matter of finding it. Just like finding a "single atom of iron." Oh, BTW [edit-inflammatory. Brass], I also have a number of geolosist friends working with me that are experts on the subject so please show me your so-called scientific prowress. I'm waiting for your response [edit-inflammatory. Brass] .

Point is that certain person relishes in inciting arguments by touting his so-called superior intellec. It is this attitude that makes the majority of his countrymen pay the price of ridicule at the expense of a few..
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 24, 2010, 02:24:46 PM
Topic temporarily locked.

Alright, topic reopened. Inflammatory statements removed from a number of posts over the last two pages.

Please keep the discourse friendly, respectfull and on topic.

Thanks

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 25, 2010, 03:35:29 AM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?

It sounds like Maxx does a lot of his gold purchases by buying used gold and melting it so I am assuming he does, but how about the rest of you.   Do you have it in your possession, what form?  Krugerlands or other coins or ???
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 25, 2010, 02:23:35 PM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?

It sounds like Maxx does a lot of his gold purchases by buying used gold and melting it so I am assuming he does, but how about the rest of you.   Do you have it in your possession, what form?  Krugerlands or other coins or ???

I have physical gold.  I was given some Krugerrand gold coins by my grandparents when I was a child.  Over the last 40+ years I've bought a few others.  Mostly Canadian Maple Leafs but also have some American Eagles and some more Krugerrands.  I keep them in a bank safety deposit box, personally I wouldn't trust some some service like a gold buying/selling operation to safeguard my property. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 25, 2010, 02:44:20 PM
Thaks WestCoast.  That was what I was wondering about.  There is a saying, desperate times make people desperate and if things really did go to pot I wouldn't have much faith in someone else holding my gold and I do think some people are buying where the selling is storing the gold. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on October 25, 2010, 04:31:06 PM
I have sold most of my gold Krugerands. I have the Dutch and American numinastic coins.

I still have too much silver.

All of it is at "hand".

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 25, 2010, 04:50:25 PM
Ray, I too own physical gold and keep it in a safety deposit box at a bank. I own Canadian Maples, American Eagles and American Buffalo 1 ounce coins. I also have some silver bars. I'm thinking that PM will pull back pretty soon, so I will be buying more at that time.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: khelkhov on October 25, 2010, 05:55:03 PM
As for gold, I own Canadian Maple Leaf coin and few gold bars.  As for silver, I have American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf silver coins and American silver rounds and silver bars produced by private mints.  I store them in my own fireproof safe in the basement of my house.  I do not feel comfortable with banks storing metals for me in their safety deposit boxes.  

I also have some of my gold/silver bullions being stored in various vaults outside of the USA.  It is a way to diversify my assets in various places.  Having some gold/silver stored overseas would allow me to have some peace of mind just in case when the US Dollar becomes worthless, where I can sell it for a different currency where I can spend my money when I am overseas... We may never know what would happen to our US Government..  They could get so desperate and hungry for cash by stealing/looting on US citizens' money or precious metals through "law" and law enforcement officials so they would have the stolen money to pay their debts...          
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on October 26, 2010, 11:04:31 AM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?


I don't like holding gold. I see it as stale asset.

I have exposure to gold through ownership of a mining exploration company that has gold resources in the ground. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 26, 2010, 05:05:50 PM
China reportedly ends exports of silver and rare earth (high tech) metals - and is stockpiling gold purchased with collapsing dollars:

http://inflation.us/videos.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 26, 2010, 05:23:07 PM
I am proud of you guys for your ownership of gold. I had been questioning whether it was a wise use of my time hanging out with you guys.

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/1.jpg)

Good video Cuffy.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 26, 2010, 05:32:58 PM
China reportedly ends exports of silver and rare earth (high tech) metals - and is stockpiling gold purchased with collapsing dollars:

http://inflation.us/videos.html


Cuffy it's hardly a secret that China is reducing its export of rare earth metals.  It has been well documented in many business articles in print, on TV and on the web.  Now of course is the time to buy the stocks of companies that are restarting their rare earth metals mines or exploring for new ones. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 26, 2010, 08:50:57 PM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?


I don't like holding gold. I see it as stale asset.

I have exposure to gold through ownership of a mining exploration company that has gold resources in the ground. 

I hope your gold mining stock has done better for you than the 1000 shares of the gold mining company I own has done for me.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 26, 2010, 09:13:43 PM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?


I don't like holding gold. I see it as stale asset.

I have exposure to gold through ownership of a mining exploration company that has gold resources in the ground. 

I hope your gold mining stock has done better for you than the 1000 shares of the gold mining company I own has done for me.

TG there are dozens of gold mining stocks that have crashed during this run up in the price of gold.  ???  Kind of hard to believe.  Most of these companies had little or no chance of actually finding or mining any significant amount of gold.  :GRRRR:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 26, 2010, 09:25:21 PM

TG there are dozens of gold mining stocks that have crashed during this run up in the price of gold.  ???  Kind of hard to believe.  Most of these companies had little or no chance of actually finding or mining any significant amount of gold.  :GRRRR:


When I bought this stock they were complaing that the price of gold (about $ 325.00) was below their cost to produce it (about $ 400.00).   I had hopes that with the gold price going through the roof they would start minting money but the stock price is a fraction of what it was when gold was cheap.  Oh, well, It is still doing better than the GM stock I bought before all the mess.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 26, 2010, 09:45:25 PM

TG there are dozens of gold mining stocks that have crashed during this run up in the price of gold.  ???  Kind of hard to believe.  Most of these companies had little or no chance of actually finding or mining any significant amount of gold.  :GRRRR:


When I bought this stock they were complaing that the price of gold (about $ 325.00) was below their cost to produce it (about $ 400.00).   I had hopes that with the gold price going through the roof they would start minting money but the stock price is a fraction of what it was when gold was cheap.  Oh, well, It is still doing better than the GM stock I bought before all the mess.

I've got my broker looking into companies that mine rare earth metals.  China produces about 97% of the world's supply of rare earth metals and they are currently reducing or restricting exports so that they can use the metals in their own products.  Who knows I could find a winner in this group of stocks.  (:)  And Cameron Diaz could declare her undying love me, which is probably far more likely.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on October 26, 2010, 10:43:40 PM
So tell me something guys.  I am not that up on some parts of investing in gold but do most of you posses your own gold or does the service you buy it from store it for you?


I don't like holding gold. I see it as stale asset.

I have exposure to gold through ownership of a mining exploration company that has gold resources in the ground. 

I hope your gold mining stock has done better for you than the 1000 shares of the gold mining company I own has done for me.

It has been okay. Up 200% over the past year.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 28, 2010, 11:58:55 AM
BCKev,

companies can be nationalized, so there is some risk there, I own gold bullion, 70% of my assets is in gold,

Now I don't advise keeping it at home unless you own over 5 million in gold, that would justify the cost of buying a safe.

There are 3 storage facilities where you can store your bullion (or ounces). New York, London, and Switzerland,

The USA and UK tend to have thieving socialist governments from time to time, so again , some risk there, also the Swiss vault has registered ownership , so your certificates are not fungable assets, so they cannot abuse it by printing more certificates then they have gold in the vault (oh wait....those certificates we used to  call "money", untill it was made legal to print MORE "certificates/money" then there was actual gold, LOOOL)

Funny, if this would concern any other asset (selling more oil certificates then there is oil in your oil storage facility) the OIL company CEO would go to jail.


But when it concerns money or other securities, it is called "the fractional reserve system" and banks get bailed out with taxpayer labor paying the difference!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 28, 2010, 12:09:35 PM
Its official,

NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES  :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111124/TIPS-at-negative-yield-what-it-means?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Quote
First-Ever TIPS Auction at Negative Yield: What It Means
by Daniel Gross, Yahoo! Finance
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
ShareretweetEmailPrintIt's perhaps the most fundamental law of lending: People extend credit to a borrower today with the expectation that they'll be paid back, with interest, in the future.

But a U.S. government bond offering on Monday appeared to defy this fundamental law. The offering of $10 billion in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (known as TIPS) was priced to yield an interest rate of -.55 percent. That's negative .55 percent. The deal: You give the government $105.50 today. Over the next five years you get annual interest payments of 50 cents and $100 in cash. The interest payments are adjusted for inflation -- if prices rise, the interest payments rise a bit. At the end of five years, investors receive their $100 back. But that sum is also adjusted for inflation. If the CPI rises by five percent in the five-year period, an investor would receive $105. If inflation is flat over that period, the investor would only get $100.

Crap, every time I think they cant be that stupid, I have to lower the bar again.

Hold on folks, its going to be a rough ride!
I
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: tfcrew on October 28, 2010, 12:31:55 PM
I've been a member here for a long time..[Just never have posted that I recall]
Probably, most of us don't have quite the caviar income [sadly]
Silver rises and falls in the precious metals market along w/gold and platinum.
It is also more affordable and not as risky to keep at home.
However, I do recommend [highly] keeping all guns and valuables locked up tightly.
Earlier in the thread, there was mention of 'intrinsic' value in gold currency..
Probably, the esthetic value is better phrased.

Nat Geo had a special on the discovery of the SS Republic that sank with a sizable gold bullion aboard in 1865.
The treasure was found some 2000' deep along the Atlantic floor.
Est was $5 million in recovered gold.
This is based on esthetic [or collectible] value as an 1853 prestine $20 gold piece was appraised at some $20,000.00
Gold is still only worth it's market value when the rubber meets the road on value.

Some readers might not be aware of this...The United States Gov't has never been authorized to print money. Period
The Federal Reserve [which does print money] is not a government agency.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 28, 2010, 12:52:58 PM
What happens if you own a trillion in cash and the zimbabwen central bank federal reserve start printing dollars like crazy?

You would get severly pissed, right?


China is hopping mad:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.18a92e9878f71f90e7b491d0afd4b1a3.501&show_article=1

Quote
Rampant issuance of dollars by the United States is saddling China with "imported inflation", Chinese commerce minister Chen Deming was quoted as saying by state media on Wednesday.
"Given the current situation, companies have thought ahead and prepared for exchange rate fluctuations as well as an increase in labour costs," Chen said, according to the state-run China Business News.

"But because the issuance of dollars is out of control, and international commodities prices are continuing to rise, China is confronted with imported inflation, which has created major uncertainties for businesses," he said.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 28, 2010, 01:52:35 PM
What happens if you own a trillion in cash and the zimbabwen central bank federal reserve start printing dollars like crazy?

You would get severly pissed, right?


China is hopping mad:

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.18a92e9878f71f90e7b491d0afd4b1a3.501&show_article=1

Quote
Rampant issuance of dollars by the United States is saddling China with "imported inflation", Chinese commerce minister Chen Deming was quoted as saying by state media on Wednesday.
"Given the current situation, companies have thought ahead and prepared for exchange rate fluctuations as well as an increase in labour costs," Chen said, according to the state-run China Business News.

"But because the issuance of dollars is out of control, and international commodities prices are continuing to rise, China is confronted with imported inflation, which has created major uncertainties for businesses," he said.


This is what a lot of people don't understand of China's situation as manufacturer and producer of goods to the world.  They are dependent on US dollars because of the trade imbalance with the US, their reserve of US securities and their peg to the US dollar.   If China is going to peg their currency to the US dollar then they are going to have to live with any problems that creates.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 28, 2010, 03:19:38 PM
If Walmart stops producing in China, China has a crisis. 

Globalization has made China, India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil best friends with USA whether they like it or not. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 28, 2010, 04:05:15 PM
 
Quote
If China is going to peg their currency to the US dollar then they are going to have to live with any problems that creates.

Dont worry, the Japanese, chinese, Saudi's are not going to be that stupid again sinking all their eggs into one reserve currency. Not even the Euro (wich is the only currency that has the lequidity to replace to USD) is going to be trusted.

Quote
Globalization has made China, India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil best friends with USA

Yeah, the USA is making a lot of friends destroying the US dollar holdings of foreign nations, money they could have spend on infrastructure, pensions, medical care and education.

They are going to love you for it!


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 28, 2010, 04:20:37 PM
Quote
If China is going to peg their currency to the US dollar then they are going to have to live with any problems that creates.

Dont worry, the Japanese, chinese, Saudi's are not going to be that stupid again sinking all their eggs into one reserve currency. Not even the Euro (wich is the only currency that has the lequidity to replace to USD) is going to be trusted.


Since the US is by far the EU's largest partner there is not a chance the EU would want to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 28, 2010, 04:29:41 PM
Quote
If China is going to peg their currency to the US dollar then they are going to have to live with any problems that creates.

Dont worry, the Japanese, chinese, Saudi's are not going to be that stupid again sinking all their eggs into one reserve currency. Not even the Euro (wich is the only currency that has the lequidity to replace to USD) is going to be trusted.


Since the US is by far the EU's largest partner there is not a chance the EU would want to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency. 

Whats the use of having a customer if he is a deadbeat?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 28, 2010, 04:55:56 PM
China:

Check out http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/chinablue/

China systematically drives the price of global labor into the toilet with slave labor sweatshops and has built a $2 trillion global trade surplus because of it... which they are now pouring into infrastructure projects around the world to secure future commodities supplies (Africa) and control infrastructure that will benefit their export economy ($6B for a widened Panama Canal that can handle Chinese Super Cargo Container ships etc...) as well as their own domestic infrastructure lest they see 1 month long traffic jams versus the regular 1 week jam up gridlock situations that occur now on an ongoing basis.

The idea that China and Japan can dictate to the USA is laughable - yes USA must get Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid under control (Can you say UK, France and Greece style austerity measures???  French are rioting in the streets over increasing the retirement age to 62 - USA will most likely be raised to 72...  And what did Russia do with its hyperinflating currency - 30000 rubles to the dollar in 1998 went to 30.6 rubles to the dollar today - and Russia is stable and prosperous once again...

Listening to China cry about the devaluation of the dollar which in fact increases the attractiveness of US exports as well as Chinese as long as they remain coupled to the dollar - is like listening to parents of a 200 lb 8 year old complain that fast food made the child fat.  It was the parents laziness that made the child fat.

Chinese are "poised" and maneuvering to become the world's reserve currency.  Lets see how that will work out - shipping companies do not like to deliver commodities to Chinese ports due to unexpected "environmental and safety" port inspections that tie up the ships so long the demurrage fees wipe out profits - so who in their right mind is going to trust the Chinese Red Freaking Army and hold their reserves in red-yuans?  The moment China decouples from the US Dollar is the moment that their workers go from $70 month wages to $700 a month wages and they lose their crushing labor advantage over the rest of Asia, India, Pakistan and Latin America.

Oh - and the Japanese know that China is still plotting their revenge for the rape and murder of Nanking - which is why you will see an acceleration of automated Japanese factories of all type (Autos, TVs, Appliances, Mobile electronics etc) in the USA as their industrial park of choice to mitigate the risk of China's revenge.

So the common wisdom that the USA is doomed if China stops buying up US treasuries might actually be a good thing and force the USA to finally deal with runaway entitlements before every baby boomer retires...  The Japanese robotics industry is accelerating along with our own and the Chinese cheap labor advantage becomes less so day by day.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 28, 2010, 05:09:59 PM
Quote
If China is going to peg their currency to the US dollar then they are going to have to live with any problems that creates.

Dont worry, the Japanese, chinese, Saudi's are not going to be that stupid again sinking all their eggs into one reserve currency. Not even the Euro (wich is the only currency that has the lequidity to replace to USD) is going to be trusted.


Since the US is by far the EU's largest partner there is not a chance the EU would want to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency. 

Whats the use of having a customer if he is a deadbeat?

JC you really don't understand economics or business.  The EU has at least as high as unemployment rate as the US.  France's unemployment rate is higher.  The citizens of France are quite literally rioting in streets because the average citizen doesn't want to work until 62 to qualify for a pension.  Other countries in the EU are going bankrupt and need to be bailed out by the richer nations.  Who really is the deadbeat?  Seems more like the EU.  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 28, 2010, 05:16:27 PM
I've been a member here for a long time..[Just never have posted that I recall]
Probably, most of us don't have quite the caviar income [sadly]
Silver rises and falls in the precious metals market along w/gold and platinum.
It is also more affordable and not as risky to keep at home.
However, I do recommend [highly] keeping all guns and valuables locked up tightly.
Earlier in the thread, there was mention of 'intrinsic' value in gold currency..
Probably, the esthetic value is better phrased.

Nat Geo had a special on the discovery of the SS Republic that sank with a sizable gold bullion aboard in 1865.
The treasure was found some 2000' deep along the Atlantic floor.
Est was $5 million in recovered gold.
This is based on esthetic [or collectible] value as an 1853 prestine $20 gold piece was appraised at some $20,000.00
Gold is still only worth it's market value when the rubber meets the road on value.

Some readers might not be aware of this...The United States Gov't has never been authorized to print money. Period
The Federal Reserve [which does print money] is not a government agency.

Glad to see you posting.

I believe the best storage for gold is someplace that is very hidden. It is also a good idea to get some of it out of the country. I really do not trust the governments of the West not to nationalize it. Declare an "National emergency" and take everyone's gold and all industry that deals with it. Of course they would mess things up but since when does the government care about that happening?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 28, 2010, 05:23:05 PM
I've been a member here for a long time..[Just never have posted that I recall]
Probably, most of us don't have quite the caviar income [sadly]
Silver rises and falls in the precious metals market along w/gold and platinum.
It is also more affordable and not as risky to keep at home.
However, I do recommend [highly] keeping all guns and valuables locked up tightly.
Earlier in the thread, there was mention of 'intrinsic' value in gold currency..
Probably, the esthetic value is better phrased.

Nat Geo had a special on the discovery of the SS Republic that sank with a sizable gold bullion aboard in 1865.
The treasure was found some 2000' deep along the Atlantic floor.
Est was $5 million in recovered gold.
This is based on esthetic [or collectible] value as an 1853 prestine $20 gold piece was appraised at some $20,000.00
Gold is still only worth it's market value when the rubber meets the road on value.

Some readers might not be aware of this...The United States Gov't has never been authorized to print money. Period
The Federal Reserve [which does print money] is not a government agency.

Glad to see you posting.

I believe the best storage for gold is someplace that is very hidden. It is also a good idea to get some of it out of the country. I really do not trust the governments of the West not to nationalize it. Declare an "National emergency" and take everyone's gold and all industry that deals with it. Of course they would mess things up but since when does the government care about that happening?

Maxx you really think if the USA or Canada did declare a "National emergency" and take everyone's gold that the western governments wouldn't also have agreements in place with other countries to report deposits of gold or bank safe deposit boxes.  After all the USA, Canada, the UK and other countries have or are negotiating agreements with countries like Switzerland regarding hidden bank accounts used to avoid taxes in their home countries.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 28, 2010, 08:49:24 PM
I've been a member here for a long time..[Just never have posted that I recall]
Probably, most of us don't have quite the caviar income [sadly]
Silver rises and falls in the precious metals market along w/gold and platinum.
It is also more affordable and not as risky to keep at home.
However, I do recommend [highly] keeping all guns and valuables locked up tightly.
Earlier in the thread, there was mention of 'intrinsic' value in gold currency..
Probably, the esthetic value is better phrased.

Nat Geo had a special on the discovery of the SS Republic that sank with a sizable gold bullion aboard in 1865.
The treasure was found some 2000' deep along the Atlantic floor.
Est was $5 million in recovered gold.
This is based on esthetic [or collectible] value as an 1853 prestine $20 gold piece was appraised at some $20,000.00
Gold is still only worth it's market value when the rubber meets the road on value.

Some readers might not be aware of this...The United States Gov't has never been authorized to print money. Period
The Federal Reserve [which does print money] is not a government agency.

Glad to see you posting.

I believe the best storage for gold is someplace that is very hidden. It is also a good idea to get some of it out of the country. I really do not trust the governments of the West not to nationalize it. Declare an "National emergency" and take everyone's gold and all industry that deals with it. Of course they would mess things up but since when does the government care about that happening?

Maxx you really think if the USA or Canada did declare a "National emergency" and take everyone's gold that the western governments wouldn't also have agreements in place with other countries to report deposits of gold or bank safe deposit boxes.  After all the USA, Canada, the UK and other countries have or are negotiating agreements with countries like Switzerland regarding hidden bank accounts used to avoid taxes in their home countries.   

Yes I agree with you. My thinking is that the US will someday become the most restricted and brokeback nation on this earth. A smart guy would find a haven in a country that is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and keep his gold well hidden there. Already the Department of Treasury requires the US citizen disclose any bank accounts held abroad. It also requires foreign countries to disclose this information or face restrictions on their operations and dealings in the US. As of 2012 it is required that all transactions of $600 or more have 1099s issued on them. It's going to get rough for those who want financial privacy. At least with gold you can use it to barter with. It's being done a lot more than you think.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 28, 2010, 11:45:12 PM
I've been a member here for a long time..[Just never have posted that I recall]
Probably, most of us don't have quite the caviar income [sadly]
Silver rises and falls in the precious metals market along w/gold and platinum.
It is also more affordable and not as risky to keep at home.
However, I do recommend [highly] keeping all guns and valuables locked up tightly.
Earlier in the thread, there was mention of 'intrinsic' value in gold currency..
Probably, the esthetic value is better phrased.

Nat Geo had a special on the discovery of the SS Republic that sank with a sizable gold bullion aboard in 1865.
The treasure was found some 2000' deep along the Atlantic floor.
Est was $5 million in recovered gold.
This is based on esthetic [or collectible] value as an 1853 prestine $20 gold piece was appraised at some $20,000.00
Gold is still only worth it's market value when the rubber meets the road on value.

Some readers might not be aware of this...The United States Gov't has never been authorized to print money. Period
The Federal Reserve [which does print money] is not a government agency.

Glad to see you posting.

I believe the best storage for gold is someplace that is very hidden. It is also a good idea to get some of it out of the country. I really do not trust the governments of the West not to nationalize it. Declare an "National emergency" and take everyone's gold and all industry that deals with it. Of course they would mess things up but since when does the government care about that happening?

Maxx you really think if the USA or Canada did declare a "National emergency" and take everyone's gold that the western governments wouldn't also have agreements in place with other countries to report deposits of gold or bank safe deposit boxes.  After all the USA, Canada, the UK and other countries have or are negotiating agreements with countries like Switzerland regarding hidden bank accounts used to avoid taxes in their home countries.   

Yes I agree with you. My thinking is that the US will someday become the most restricted and brokeback nation on this earth. A smart guy would find a haven in a country that is mostly self sufficient in food and energy and keep his gold well hidden there. Already the Department of Treasury requires the US citizen disclose any bank accounts held abroad. It also requires foreign countries to disclose this information or face restrictions on their operations and dealings in the US. As of 2012 it is required that all transactions of $600 or more have 1099s issued on them. It's going to get rough for those who want financial privacy. At least with gold you can use it to barter with. It's being done a lot more than you think.
this will probably create the black market where people will buy and sell gold without reporting it.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on October 29, 2010, 07:53:17 AM
Past three years USD has strengthened against the Euro. 

Also why would an someone put 70% of his assets in gold unless he makes jewelry.  Buffet would laugh non stop. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 29, 2010, 10:08:09 AM
Past three years USD has strengthened against the Euro. 

Say what?

spotrate today 12.00 hours
1 euro = 1.39 USD

Strength? Where? Compared to what?

Quote
   Also why would an someone put 70% of his assets in gold unless he makes jewelry.  Buffet would laugh non stop.

Greenspan agrees, fait currency = shit

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/greenspans-warning-about-gold-echoes-in/87088/

Greenspan’s Warning About Gold Echoes After Fed Speaks

Quote
Only days after the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned that “fiat money has no place to go but gold,” the dollar has collapsed to a new low. The remarks of the former Fed Chairman were made a week ago at the Council on Foreign Relations, causing a flurry of excitement on the Internet. The dollar shed value, dropping to a record low yesterday, within minutes of the Federal Reserve declaring that it was, as characterized by Reuters, “ready to provide more support for the economy and expressing concerns about low inflation.”

From the hourses mouth,

Nuff said!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 29, 2010, 10:17:24 AM
Quote
JC you really don't understand economics or business.

Ok mr Harverd economics professor, school me, LOOOL,  ;D ;D

Quote
The EU has at least as high as unemployment rate as the US.

Yeah, USA has gone socialist too. SO how are you folks liking it up till now? LOOL, can anyone say 'mid-term elections', LOOOL

Quote
Who really is the deadbeat?  Seems more like the EU. 

"Socialism light" or "the middle road" doesnt work either,  Luckily countries in the Eu are cutting spending, cutting public sector jobs, Obama on the other hand, is trying to immitate the other big African economist, Mr Mugabe, (big surprise there?)

Quote
France's unemployment rate is higher.  The citizens of France are quite literally rioting in streets because the average citizen doesn't want to work until 62 to qualify for a pension.

I call it justice, That's what you get if you spend money you never had in the first place.
But why are you bitchin about France? I am a Luxembourg resident!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on October 29, 2010, 10:56:15 AM
Past three years USD has strengthened against the Euro. 

Also why would an someone put 70% of his assets in gold unless he makes jewelry.  Buffet would laugh non stop. 

It's like the dollar took 2 steps back as the Euro took 3 steps back. "Dollar strengthening" is propaganda in the long term. At best it "strengthens" when investors temporary park their while looking for a better investment. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 29, 2010, 01:19:00 PM
Quote
JC you really don't understand economics or business.

Ok mr Harverd economics professor, school me, LOOOL,  ;D ;D

Quote
The EU has at least as high as unemployment rate as the US.

Yeah, USA has gone socialist too. SO how are you folks liking it up till now? LOOL, can anyone say 'mid-term elections', LOOOL

Quote
Who really is the deadbeat?  Seems more like the EU. 

"Socialism light" or "the middle road" doesnt work either,  Luckily countries in the Eu are cutting spending, cutting public sector jobs, Obama on the other hand, is trying to immitate the other big African economist, Mr Mugabe, (big surprise there?)

Quote
France's unemployment rate is higher.  The citizens of France are quite literally rioting in streets because the average citizen doesn't want to work until 62 to qualify for a pension.

I call it justice, That's what you get if you spend money you never had in the first place.
But why are you bitchin about France? I am a Luxembourg resident!

JC when did you move to Luxembourg?  Job related?  You've always stated that you were going to stay in France and fight the socialism.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on October 31, 2010, 07:16:47 AM
Hey you guys do know that should the price of stock take a big beating, as in the Lehman brothers case, gold prices can take a huge beating rii

In fact due to the fact that ETF is such a huge influence, the price of gold can go down as much as 30 to 60 percent in such a time.

Even though I believe in hedging with bullion and I think  that within the next 12 months, we wil see some major ETF players leaving the ETF market.

That should be a signal that the gold market will go under major downward revision.

I see that as the mid (12 months) forecast.  After it takes a beating, I can see gold prices down 30-to 60 percent for up to a year or two, after that it will take off like a rocket.

Obviously the USDX will go down to about 40 and inflation, protectionism, social unrest, etc etc will be wreaking havoc.  And sooner or later we (as in the most of the world) could be looking at inflation or worse,  hyper inflation.   I doubt living in Europe, Japan, America would make much of a difference at this point since most nations' central banks hedge with the US dollar.

I wish I could tell you that the exact dates, but those that confess to know the exact dates are all liars. 

I also wish I could say that I came up with this theory but I didnt. LOL  Someone much more intelligent wrote this.  I just buy information from such a guy.

As for inflation vs deflation, one of the most controversial issues plaguing the financial / political  world and almost anyone with any type of intelligence,  I higly advise everyone  to watch this video
Not a valid vimeo URL
Frank Byrd is very convincing.

BTW,  no one and I mean NO ONE should disclose their wealth and keeping in terms of gold coins, bullions, money, etc on the internet.  Keep it to yourself.   I hope that there will never come a day that someone will thank me for this advice, but I give this advice knowing quite a few possiblities that might be heading our way in the future. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on October 31, 2010, 07:27:41 AM
Two posts removed - inflammatory.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on October 31, 2010, 07:30:08 AM
Wingnut? hmmmm... let me look that word up.  Oh I see. 

I mean on a site / forum such as this one.  Not all of us live in Luxembourg if you get what I mean.

Oh one last thing.  has anyone ever told you that being nice is a good thing.  name calling is a bad thing.   There is no virtue in calling someone a wingnut. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on October 31, 2010, 07:31:22 AM
Two posts removed - inflammatory.

Brass

Thank you very much.  I appreciate your actions.

Meet Mr Ignore Jean Claude.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 31, 2010, 07:32:20 AM
Quote
JC you really don't understand economics or business.

Ok mr Harverd economics professor, school me, LOOOL,  ;D ;D

Quote
The EU has at least as high as unemployment rate as the US.

Yeah, USA has gone socialist too. SO how are you folks liking it up till now? LOOL, can anyone say 'mid-term elections', LOOOL

Quote
Who really is the deadbeat?  Seems more like the EU. 

"Socialism light" or "the middle road" doesnt work either,  Luckily countries in the Eu are cutting spending, cutting public sector jobs, Obama on the other hand, is trying to immitate the other big African economist, Mr Mugabe, (big surprise there?)

Quote
France's unemployment rate is higher.  The citizens of France are quite literally rioting in streets because the average citizen doesn't want to work until 62 to qualify for a pension.

I call it justice, That's what you get if you spend money you never had in the first place.
But why are you bitchin about France? I am a Luxembourg resident!

JC when did you move to Luxembourg?  Job related?  You've always stated that you were going to stay in France and fight the socialism.   

Lets not be selective about what points you wish to discuss, distraction doesnt work
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 31, 2010, 09:54:31 AM
Past three years USD has strengthened against the Euro. 

Also why would an someone put 70% of his assets in gold unless he makes jewelry.  Buffet would laugh non stop. 

Well let's see.  If as some of you believe the dollar becomes so worthless that it's best use is toilet paper, real estate becomes valueless, the Dow drops 11,000 points from where it is now then the one $ 10.00 gold piece I own may be 70% of my assets.

I do agree with you Kievstar.  Someone who puts 70% of his assets in gold is probably a fool.  I won't say he can't turn out to be the smartest of us but virtually any expert would say 5-10% of assets in gold.  It's about the same as those who had all their 401-K in Enron stock. 

People who specualte in gold should do it with money they don't care about and amounts that won't hurt them.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 31, 2010, 10:17:07 AM
Quote
I do agree with you Kievstar.  Someone who puts 70% of his assets in gold is probably a fool.

Thanks for the honer badge Turbo, comming from someone like you its a compliment.

Alan GreenSpan (his quote) ..fiat money has nowhere else to go but gold...  is one of those "fools" you seem to disagree with, but then again, Greenspan has returned to his original Capitalists root (he once was a prominent fellow of the Ayan Rahnd society, before he sold out and started printing money).  Same as the governments of India and China who are buying up gold by the metric tons, them must be total idiots I recon , buying up gold even at todays prices.

it is the demicratic system in combination with people with your (even selfadmitted by yourself) gaping holes of knowledge about of what "money" actually is , that can put a former great power as the USA to its knees.

Nationwrecking is always a deliberate choice.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 31, 2010, 11:32:18 AM
Quote
I do agree with you Kievstar.  Someone who puts 70% of his assets in gold is probably a fool.

Thanks for the honer badge Turbo, comming from someone like you its a compliment.

Alan GreenSpan (his quote) ..fiat money has nowhere else to go but gold...  is one of those "fools" you seem to disagree with, but then again, Greenspan has returned to his original Capitalists root (he once was a prominent fellow of the Ayan Rahnd society, before he sold out and started printing money).  Same as the governments of India and China who are buying up gold by the metric tons, them must be total idiots I recon , buying up gold even at todays prices.

it is the demicratic system in combination with people with your (even selfadmitted by yourself) gaping holes of knowledge about of what "money" actually is , that can put a former great power as the USA to its knees.

Nationwrecking is always a deliberate choice.

China and India may be buying gold but even if their totals are combined they are far from equaling the total gold holdings of the USA.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33242464/The_World_s_Biggest_Gold_Reserves?slide=1

1. United States
Value of Reserves: $358.63 billion
Holdings Total: 8,965.65 tons

6. China
Value of Reserves: $46.46 billion
Holdings Total: 1,161.6 tons

11. India
Value of Reserves: $24.58 billion
Holdings Total: 614.58 tons
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 31, 2010, 11:47:26 AM
that can put a former great power as the USA to its knees.

Nationwrecking is always a deliberate choice.

I think you are getting ahead of yourself JC.   We might be heading towards "Former Great Power" but we are not there yet. 

As far as the delebrate choice part I am not so sure about that but yes, the voters did made a deliberate choice in electing someone whose goal is to destroy what made America great.  We start to make a choice to fix things next week.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 31, 2010, 03:37:32 PM

Per NIA:

'End of Liberty' is without a doubt the scariest movie ever released on Halloween because it exposes the truth about the societal collapse that is ahead for all Americans. 'End of Liberty' is the most eye-opening film ever produced about the U.S. government. It is perhaps the most important documentary ever released in our nation's history!

...See "gold bubble" discussion at end of video...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 31, 2010, 04:16:18 PM

Per NIA:

'End of Liberty' is without a doubt the scariest movie ever released on Halloween because it exposes the truth about the societal collapse that is ahead for all Americans. 'End of Liberty' is the most eye-opening film ever produced about the U.S. government. It is perhaps the most important documentary ever released in our nation's history!

...See "gold bubble" discussion at end of video...

Me reckon the colonies are in need of a reboot,  2 metals are going to be in high demand, and patriots better stock up on them , them be lead and gold!

I hear the lead is been sold out all over the country,

Maybe its a "lead bubble"

AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

I typed in "Ammunition sold out" in google,

Woops!!!!!!!

http://www.google.be/#hl=nl&biw=1280&bih=891&q=ammunition+sold+out&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&fp=72131938121a6773

@Turbo,

Dont think sticking your head in the sand is going to save your young wife from whats comming!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 31, 2010, 04:21:17 PM
Quote
1. United States
Value of Reserves: $358.63 billion
Holdings Total: 8,965.65 tons

Bull, there hasnt been an independant audit since President Eisenhower

"Senator Ron Paul on the Rockwell show"


Of course we all know politicians can be trusted{Edit: Insult removed - Brass}

[SARCASM MODE OFF]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 31, 2010, 06:39:02 PM
Quote
1. United States
Value of Reserves: $358.63 billion
Holdings Total: 8,965.65 tons

Bull, there hasnt been an independant audit since President Eisenhower

"Senator Ron Paul on the Rockwell show"


Of course we all know politicians can be trusted {Edit: Insult removed - Brass}

[SARCASM MODE OFF]

Who is Senator Ron Paul?  There is Ron Paul in the U.S. House of Representatives.  He is a Republican and represents Texas's 14th district.  Is that who you mean?

JC you've demonstrated numerous times that you have almost no comprehension of the economy, now you are demonstrating that you don't know the major players in US politics.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on October 31, 2010, 11:26:43 PM

Per NIA:

'End of Liberty' is without a doubt the scariest movie ever released on Halloween because it exposes the truth about the societal collapse that is ahead for all Americans. 'End of Liberty' is the most eye-opening film ever produced about the U.S. government. It is perhaps the most important documentary ever released in our nation's history!

...See "gold bubble" discussion at end of video...
wow! Just finished watching the movie - very depressing!  :(  The worst part is that it seems like there's nothing we as people can do about it. Even if Republicans become a majority, they still will continue selling us to the special interest groups. This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 01, 2010, 12:28:55 AM

Per NIA:

'End of Liberty' is without a doubt the scariest movie ever released on Halloween because it exposes the truth about the societal collapse that is ahead for all Americans. 'End of Liberty' is the most eye-opening film ever produced about the U.S. government. It is perhaps the most important documentary ever released in our nation's history!

...See "gold bubble" discussion at end of video...
wow! Just finished watching the movie - very depressing!  :(  The worst part is that it seems like there's nothing we as people can do about it. Even if Republicans become a majority, they still will continue selling us to the special interest groups. This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

A number of states in the US and provinces in Canada forbid the sale or giving away of raw milk because of the danger of contracting any of E. Coli O157:H7, Listeria, and Salmonella plus several other rarer medical problems.  Some jurisdictions of become very active in enforcing the ban.  When I was a kid, a very long time ago I regularly drank raw milk.  We used to get it from a friend who ran a small dairy.  The raw milk really was delicious and no one in the family got sick.  Maybe we were lucky, who knows.

As for growing other types of food there are various regulations but in Canada or from friends in the US I've never heard of anything that prevents someone from growing veggies in their backyard.  In Vancouver, British Columbia, city council just past a law allowing homeowners to have up to four chickens on their property so that they could have eggs and chicken for food.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 01, 2010, 09:47:03 AM
Quote
Who is Senator Ron Paul?  There is Ron Paul in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Oops my bad, well one house or the other, government is government in my opinion.

Quote
JC you've demonstrated numerous times that you have almost no comprehension of the economy,

Well I see you fall back to lies and half truth, since you claim i provide no proof for my statements (see the numerous links) and claim Mugabenomics is actual a workable strategy.

Comming from you i will regard this statement as an absolute compliment. Since  ALAN GREENSPAN himself finally agrees with me (and all others who follow Austrian economics)

(Greenspan quote) '...fiat money has nowhere else to go but gold..."

Jeez, who is more competant?, WetsCoast with his Bacholor degree in keynesianism or the ex Chairman of the Fed?

Lets make a poll on this one....

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 01, 2010, 09:50:55 AM
Westy:
Quote
JC you've demonstrated numerous times that you have almost no comprehension of the economy

Can we get by the usual personal attacks and smoke blowing tactics and focus on your unfactual statement that the gold reserve at fort Knox are actually existant as you stated. This was the issue at hand.

My provided link shows that there has never been an audit of the supply since Eisenhower.  (again, I refer to the youtube interview of RON PAUL, see posted link).


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 01, 2010, 07:54:10 PM
Westy:
Quote
JC you've demonstrated numerous times that you have almost no comprehension of the economy

Can we get by the usual personal attacks and smoke blowing tactics and focus on your unfactual statement that the gold reserve at fort Knox are actually existant as you stated. This was the issue at hand.

My provided link shows that there has never been an audit of the supply since Eisenhower.  (again, I refer to the youtube interview of RON PAUL, see posted link).


Just because the Fort Knox vaults haven't been audited doesn't mean the gold isn't there.  

As for personal attacks, it was not a personal attack I merely stated that your posts show that you don't understand how the economy operates.  And you referred to me as a {reference to personal insult removed - Brass} several posts back, so who's doing the personal attacks?

Quote
1. United States
Value of Reserves: $358.63 billion
Holdings Total: 8,965.65 tons

Bull, there hasnt been an independant audit since President Eisenhower

"Senator Ron Paul on the Rockwell show"

Of course we all know politicians can be trusted {Insult removed - Brass}

[SARCASM MODE OFF]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on November 01, 2010, 08:30:51 PM
JeanClaude,

Please reacquaint yourself with Article 5(a) of the ToS.

"5(a) Personal attacks are prohibited: This specifically means any text/post that is blatantly attacking another member or their partner. It is easy enough to use civil language in order to respectfully debate differing points of view. If you are not sure what you are about to say is civil, rephrase it or don't post it. Keep your comments limited to the debate at hand and do not make it a personal issue between you and another member. Please conduct yourself with restraint and treat others who use this forum with respect."

Thanks

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 02, 2010, 06:29:54 AM
Quote
Just because the Fort Knox vaults haven't been audited doesn't mean the gold isn't there.

True, just because we cant prove Santa Claue doesnt exist, .......
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 02, 2010, 07:46:56 AM
Gold is teasing 1370 like a stripper

1365, for gold,

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 02, 2010, 10:40:50 AM
Quote
Just because the Fort Knox vaults haven't been audited doesn't mean the gold isn't there.

True, just because we cant prove Santa Claue doesnt exist, .......

No bad mouthing Santa or   (http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ9uweqcfchcLFe5yBzFIptptz7PEgWObRtxqNH7WYozEO_4Jo&t=1&usg=__W98UD7iQiFV6pZyZDz0wWMKZRHs=)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 02, 2010, 03:14:09 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.   See?   And we have to stand up when these people walk into a room!

Let me tell you right now , if some federal agents were dumb enough to enter my property and destroy my tomatoplants , I think you would see the second amendment kick in!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 02, 2010, 03:51:09 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.   See?   And we have to stand up when these people walk into a room!

Let me tell you right now , if some federal agents were dumb enough to enter my property and destroy my tomatoplants , I think you would see the second amendment kick in!


JC your profile says that you live in Luxembourg.  Is there a 2nd Amendment in Luxembourg?   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 02, 2010, 03:56:01 PM
Westy, stop being a troll,.., reading comprehension mate, :)

the word "IF" was used...., luckily no federal agents in Luxembourg plowing the tomatofields!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 02, 2010, 04:40:51 PM
Westy, stop being a troll,.., reading comprehension mate, :)

the word "IF" was used...., luckily no federal agents in Luxembourg plowing the tomatofields!



And I put a laughing smiley after my post.  I thought it was humourous.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on November 02, 2010, 07:04:06 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.  

yeah, but in order to grow them tomatos I had to buy seedlings or young plants, furtilizer, irrigation equipment, compost, etc. etc. Don't they take in consideration that all those sales wouldn't be made if I didn't decide to grow tomatos in my yard?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 02, 2010, 07:31:05 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.  

yeah, but in order to grow them tomatos I had to buy seedlings or young plants, furtilizer, irrigation equipment, compost, etc. etc. Don't they take in consideration that all those sales wouldn't be made if I didn't decide to grow tomatos in my yard?

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  The feds may be legally able to regulate people growing tomatoes in their backyard but how many federal agents would they need to do it all over the country?  On the other hand if the feds did try to keep people from growing tomatoes in their gardens they would need so many new federal employees that it would drastically lower the unemployment rate.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on November 02, 2010, 07:57:25 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.  

yeah, but in order to grow them tomatos I had to buy seedlings or young plants, furtilizer, irrigation equipment, compost, etc. etc. Don't they take in consideration that all those sales wouldn't be made if I didn't decide to grow tomatos in my yard?

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  The feds may be legally able to regulate people growing tomatoes in their backyard but how many federal agents would they need to do it all over the country?  On the other hand if the feds did try to keep people from growing tomatoes in their gardens they would need so many new federal employees that it would drastically lower the unemployment rate.   :laugh:
I was trying to point out that this "protectionist" policy doesn't make any sense. It protects commercial tomato growers, but damages all other businesses that sell goods to people who want to grow their own tomatoes. Where is the logic there? It also infriges on people's freedom IMO which is the worst thing that can happen in this country that always prided itself on having the most freedom in the world. I don't believe there is such a law in Russia.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 02, 2010, 08:14:12 PM
ed:
Quote
This bit about them trying to put a stop on people growing own food is outrageous! Is this true?

Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

link:http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/
Quote
Thus, if you have tomato plants in your back yard for use solely in your own kitchen,  you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” and are subject to regulation by Congress. The court’s reasoning is this: If you weren’t growing tomatoes in your back yard, you’d be buying them on the market. If you were buying them on the market, some of what you bought might come from another State.   So!  By not buying them on the market, you are “affecting” “interstate commerce” because you didn’t buy something you otherwise would have bought.  

yeah, but in order to grow them tomatos I had to buy seedlings or young plants, furtilizer, irrigation equipment, compost, etc. etc. Don't they take in consideration that all those sales wouldn't be made if I didn't decide to grow tomatos in my yard?

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  The feds may be legally able to regulate people growing tomatoes in their backyard but how many federal agents would they need to do it all over the country?  On the other hand if the feds did try to keep people from growing tomatoes in their gardens they would need so many new federal employees that it would drastically lower the unemployment rate.   :laugh:
I was trying to point out that this "protectionist" policy doesn't make any sense. It protects commercial tomato growers, but damages all other businesses that sell goods to people who want to grow their own tomatoes. Where is the logic there? It also infriges on people's freedom IMO which is the worst thing that can happen in this country that always prided itself on having the most freedom in the world. I don't believe there is such a law in Russia.

There isn't such a law in Canada and of course we're a socialist country.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on November 03, 2010, 01:33:40 PM

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  
 

The Federal and State government do a rather poor job at stopping people from growing marijuana - perhaps they are afraid of getting tomatoe on there face. In fact a number of middle sized cities, have allowed local residents to keep up to five chickens on there property for egg production.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 03, 2010, 01:47:28 PM

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  
 

The Federal and State government do a rather poor job at stopping people from growing marijuana - perhaps they are afraid of getting tomatoe on there face. In fact a number of middle sized cities, have allowed local residents to keep up to five chickens on there property for egg production.

there are already incidents of gardens being uprooted by federal agents, so if you think like a "wildebeast" (the lion will not catch me but that other slow wildebeast) then you already lost your freedoms
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 03, 2010, 04:18:05 PM

I really don't see how any level of government is going to regulate home gardens.  
 

The Federal and State government do a rather poor job at stopping people from growing marijuana - perhaps they are afraid of getting tomatoe on there face. In fact a number of middle sized cities, have allowed local residents to keep up to five chickens on there property for egg production.

there are already incidents of gardens being uprooted by federal agents, so if you think like a "wildebeast" (the lion will not catch me but that other slow wildebeast) then you already lost your freedoms

JC you list no references for your statement.  All I found was feds or local cops ripping out gardens because they contained marijuana or some other type of illegal substance. I've heard of some American cities and/or gated communities not allowing gardens in the front yard because of curb appeal.

What I did find is an email making the rounds on the Internet regarding HR 875/S425.  HR 875/S425 is or was a House bill to create an agency within the Department of Health and Human Services which would oversee food safety and labeling in the U.S., creating a single government entity in charge of preventing food-borne illnesses.  This move creates an agency solely focused on protecting the public through better regulation of the food supply.”  More rumours with no substance.

http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/would_a_new_bill_in_congress_make.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 03, 2010, 04:32:41 PM

Glen Beck talks about this
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 03, 2010, 04:55:57 PM
Westy, again you read very selectivly, please go back to my link,

I am quoting a judge on this one!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 03, 2010, 05:00:07 PM

Glen Beck talks about this

Snopes.com seems to disagree with Glenn, hardly a surprise.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/organic.asp
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 03, 2010, 05:11:57 PM
Westy, again you read very selectivly, please go back to my link,

I am quoting a judge on this one!

Assuming you mean this link http://publiushuldah.wordpress.com/2009/10/07/82/ ?  No where in this post is there any links to reports of gardens being ripped out of the ground by federal agents or even local police.  The link is a theoretical discussion of  "interstate commerce" and how it relates to the US Constitution.  Once again only rumours and speculation, no substance.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 03, 2010, 05:28:54 PM
Westy, your reading comprehension has gone out the window,  dude,

My quote:
Quote
Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

The link:
Quote
But in Wickard v. Filburn (1942), the Court said the “commerce clause” extends to local intrastate activities which “affect” interstate commerce, even if the activities aren’t “commerce”! 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 03, 2010, 06:13:18 PM
Westy, your reading comprehension has gone out the window,  dude,

My quote:
Quote
Eduard, it has been going on for some time now, growing tomatoes (or is it tomato's?) in your backyard is violating "interstate commerce acts" and is a federal offense

The link:
Quote
But in Wickard v. Filburn (1942), the Court said the “commerce clause” extends to local intrastate activities which “affect” interstate commerce, even if the activities aren’t “commerce”!  



Yes I read that and yet still no examples of police at any level of government coming onto private property and ripping out gardens and this judgment was passed in 1942.  And I repeat again, rumours and speculation, no substance.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on November 04, 2010, 12:30:58 PM
Gold $1384.60(USD), Silver $26.08(USD) as I type.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 04, 2010, 12:33:14 PM
Gold $1384.60(USD), Silver $26.08(USD) as I type.

Brass

Frack!

I am not looking for 2 min, and ik breaks 1370 usd

Its gonna pass 1400 like its not even there,

, I bought that stuff for 680, back in 2008, ROFLOL!!!!

Brass, herry, other techies, cant we have a realtime graph for this thread? or a ticker widget?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on November 04, 2010, 01:45:35 PM
Again, let me remind you guys - gold and silver didn't go up, they stay the same. It's your currency that is loosing value because of what the Fed is doing. They are devaluing the dollar and Mr. Soros is getting richer while most Americans are getting poorer.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 04, 2010, 02:02:13 PM
Again, let me remind you guys - gold and silver didn't go up, they stay the same. It's your currency that is loosing value because of what the Fed is doing. They are devaluing the dollar and Mr. Soros is getting richer while most Americans are getting poorer.

Ed, someone like Soros is going to make money no matter what the price of gold or the US dollar is.  He has teams of people doing the research and the buying and selling for him.  When you're worth more than $10 billion you're not bound by national borders or national currencies. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 05, 2010, 07:48:01 AM
Again, let me remind you guys - gold and silver didn't go up, they stay the same. It's your currency that is loosing value because of what the Fed is doing. They are devaluing the dollar and Mr. Soros is getting richer while most Americans are getting poorer.

Funny how the same Soros is funding liberal/socialist thinking in the US causing all this crap to happen, so he can bet against it in the market. In Germany they call it the "baude stellung", aka  controlling both sides.  

Check out Soros sponsered candidates:
http://www.buzzbox.com/news/2010-11-04/george-soros:loser/?clusterId=2342541

In a way you are right that Gold is the true value, what is real scary is , if the USA would return to the gold standard, one ounce would cost approx 50.000 usd. Thats how much money they have printed compared to the gold (claimed) onwership in Fort Knox.

Of course this is an estimate as M3 Numbers are not published since 2006 (Bush) , so nobody knows how much USD has been actually created since then, there are some good estimates floating around interent, but nobody knows for sure.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 05, 2010, 10:34:18 AM
Gold $1396.93 Silver 26.71
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on November 05, 2010, 10:40:43 AM


JC,

Dunno about the real time graph. Ask in the Feedback, that way Herrie won't miss the question.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 05, 2010, 12:00:19 PM
Brasss, will do,


For the people owning gold, I have this link, real time gold spot price, every 60 seconds!!

Mark as favourite!!

http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 07, 2010, 03:31:02 PM
(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/7_1.jpg)

I like http://www.24hgold.com/english/home.aspx
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 08, 2010, 09:58:42 AM
RECORD HIGH:   Gold $1398.23   Silver $27.26
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 08, 2010, 10:23:56 AM
RECORD HIGH:   Gold $1402.15   Silver $27.33
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 08, 2010, 11:47:45 PM
RECORD HIGH:   Gold $1413.60  Silver $28.12
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 12:24:56 AM
http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2010/11/08/world-bank-chief-riles-up-economists-by-talking-gold-standard/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on November 09, 2010, 07:05:04 AM
Maxx, per your article link.

The FT’s Martin Wolf explains that the biggest problem for a reformed gold standard would be the “mismatch between the value of official gold holdings and the size of the monetary system,” which in 2008 stood at $1,300 billion and $61,000 billion.

Wolf considers an even more serious problem is that a peg to gold wouldn’t even guarantee international stability.  “A peg to gold may prove to be radically destabilizing for any currency if other significant countries failed to sustain domestic monetary and financial stability,” which could lead to dramatic flows of gold between currencies that are better managed, drastically changing their relative values.


Article nice read and one of many to put more fear into people.  Remember you make real money day trading gold and you need fear and demand to make that work.  Wall Street is trying to get gold to $1,600 so they (me) can day trade it the next $200 increase.  Its very easy to day trade gold and takes 2 minutes a day of time. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 09, 2010, 07:09:46 AM
Kievstar,

I think the rest of the world doesnt really care about the monitary policiy of the US
and this is expressed in  the price of gold. They are basicly saying "shove it".

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 09, 2010, 09:03:51 AM
RECORD HIGH:   Gold $1424.18
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 09, 2010, 09:04:49 AM
Shit, USD is in a freefal, at the end of this month we will be probably looking at gold 1800-2000 easily!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 10:35:01 AM
Maxx, per your article link.

The FT’s Martin Wolf explains that the biggest problem for a reformed gold standard would be the “mismatch between the value of official gold holdings and the size of the monetary system,” which in 2008 stood at $1,300 billion and $61,000 billion.

Wolf considers an even more serious problem is that a peg to gold wouldn’t even guarantee international stability.  “A peg to gold may prove to be radically destabilizing for any currency if other significant countries failed to sustain domestic monetary and financial stability,” which could lead to dramatic flows of gold between currencies that are better managed, drastically changing their relative values.


Article nice read and one of many to put more fear into people.  Remember you make real money day trading gold and you need fear and demand to make that work.  Wall Street is trying to get gold to $1,600 so they (me) can day trade it the next $200 increase.  Its very easy to day trade gold and takes 2 minutes a day of time. 



Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure. From the stats it does seem that the metal value to the dollar has a far ways to go. How this will all turn out is anyone's guess. I just wouldn't trust in fiat currency for protection.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 09, 2010, 10:46:34 AM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 10:57:15 AM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

Thanks for reminding me. A competing currency is what Ron Paul advocates. One fiat and the other gold/silver based and let the consumer/saver/business be the chooser on what they want to use. The currency would not have a fixed value but would float and the public would have to learn on how to use it. I am in the gold business and have done this. It's not that complicated.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 04:17:40 PM
(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usGOLDn1.png)(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usSILVERn1.png)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 09, 2010, 04:44:43 PM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

JC I think you and Maxx misunderstand the meaning of the term "legal tender".  What "legal tender" means is:
   "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges,      taxes, and dues."

This however, doesn't mean that two people, businesses, corporations or entities could agree to accept some other type of payment.  Because there is no federal statute that mandates that that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise. For example, a bus line may prohibit payment of fares in pennies or dollar bills. In addition, movie theaters, convenience stores and gas stations may refuse to accept large denomination currency (usually notes above $20) as a matter of policy.

So Maxx, JC if you want to start a business in the USA and only accept gold for payment you are perfectly free to do so.  How successful such a policy will be is an entirely different matter.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 06:51:36 PM
(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usGOLDn1.png)(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usSILVERn1.png)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 06:56:30 PM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

JC I think you and Maxx misunderstand the meaning of the term "legal tender".  What "legal tender" means is:
   "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges,      taxes, and dues."

This however, doesn't mean that two people, businesses, corporations or entities could agree to accept some other type of payment.  Because there is no federal statute that mandates that that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise. For example, a bus line may prohibit payment of fares in pennies or dollar bills. In addition, movie theaters, convenience stores and gas stations may refuse to accept large denomination currency (usually notes above $20) as a matter of policy.

So Maxx, JC if you want to start a business in the USA and only accept gold for payment you are perfectly free to do so.  How successful such a policy will be is an entirely different matter.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml

Can't do that. The Fed will close you down. You must accepts FRNs or you will be prosecuted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/  BTW the R. P. coins are NOT "fake" silver and gold. That is just a misleading headline by the establishment media.




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 09, 2010, 08:00:59 PM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

JC I think you and Maxx misunderstand the meaning of the term "legal tender".  What "legal tender" means is:
   "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges,      taxes, and dues."

This however, doesn't mean that two people, businesses, corporations or entities could agree to accept some other type of payment.  Because there is no federal statute that mandates that that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise. For example, a bus line may prohibit payment of fares in pennies or dollar bills. In addition, movie theaters, convenience stores and gas stations may refuse to accept large denomination currency (usually notes above $20) as a matter of policy.

So Maxx, JC if you want to start a business in the USA and only accept gold for payment you are perfectly free to do so.  How successful such a policy will be is an entirely different matter.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml

Can't do that. The Fed will close you down. You must accepts FRNs or you will be prosecuted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/  BTW the R. P. coins are NOT "fake" silver and gold. That is just a misleading headline by the establishment media.


Maxx the people from your link were minting the Ron Paul gold and silver coins and claiming the coins was currency.  They were also trying to circulate the coins in the economy. Both of those activities are highly illegal.  The link from the US Treasury is quite clear, it states:  There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise.

I think your business would be in deep financial trouble quite quickly if your company policy was to only accept gold and silver coins.  In addition, it is far easier to tell counterfeit currency from counterfeit gold and silver, providing of course you've had the proper training and have the right equipment.  

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml  
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqcur.htm  Same statute this time from the US Federal Reserve
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 09, 2010, 09:08:27 PM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

JC I think you and Maxx misunderstand the meaning of the term "legal tender".  What "legal tender" means is:
   "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges,      taxes, and dues."

This however, doesn't mean that two people, businesses, corporations or entities could agree to accept some other type of payment.  Because there is no federal statute that mandates that that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise. For example, a bus line may prohibit payment of fares in pennies or dollar bills. In addition, movie theaters, convenience stores and gas stations may refuse to accept large denomination currency (usually notes above $20) as a matter of policy.

So Maxx, JC if you want to start a business in the USA and only accept gold for payment you are perfectly free to do so.  How successful such a policy will be is an entirely different matter.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml

Can't do that. The Fed will close you down. You must accepts FRNs or you will be prosecuted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/  BTW the R. P. coins are NOT "fake" silver and gold. That is just a misleading headline by the establishment media.


Maxx the people from your link were minting the Ron Paul gold and silver coins and claiming the coins was currency.  They were also trying to circulate the coins in the economy. Both of those activities are highly illegal.  The link from the US Treasury is quite clear, it states:  There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise.

I think your business would be in deep financial trouble quite quickly if your company policy was to only accept gold and silver coins.  In addition, it is far easier to tell counterfeit currency from counterfeit gold and silver, providing of course you've had the proper training and have the right equipment.  

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml  
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqcur.htm  Same statute this time from the US Federal Reserve

Dig a little deeper and you will see you are wrong. You make distinctions without a difference. It's rigged when it gets into the courts.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 09, 2010, 09:18:20 PM
Maxx:
Quote
Having gold as a standard does have it's limitations that is for sure.

Yes, limitations on the abuse by government)))

But Maxx pointed out the me earlier this year not so much returning to the goldstanderd , but removing the enFORCED legal tender status of the greenback. AKA, have other currencies exist next to the fiat dollar system. This would require the removal of restriction using gold (or cold certificates) as a direct currency.

This way people can choose whenever they trust fiat currency or not, this competition will keep politicians in check of abusing fiat currency.

Maxx, you got that Ron Paul video somewhere, where he explains this idea?

JC I think you and Maxx misunderstand the meaning of the term "legal tender".  What "legal tender" means is:
   "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges,      taxes, and dues."

This however, doesn't mean that two people, businesses, corporations or entities could agree to accept some other type of payment.  Because there is no federal statute that mandates that that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise. For example, a bus line may prohibit payment of fares in pennies or dollar bills. In addition, movie theaters, convenience stores and gas stations may refuse to accept large denomination currency (usually notes above $20) as a matter of policy.

So Maxx, JC if you want to start a business in the USA and only accept gold for payment you are perfectly free to do so.  How successful such a policy will be is an entirely different matter.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml

Can't do that. The Fed will close you down. You must accepts FRNs or you will be prosecuted.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836699/  BTW the R. P. coins are NOT "fake" silver and gold. That is just a misleading headline by the establishment media.


Maxx the people from your link were minting the Ron Paul gold and silver coins and claiming the coins was currency.  They were also trying to circulate the coins in the economy. Both of those activities are highly illegal.  The link from the US Treasury is quite clear, it states:  There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise.

I think your business would be in deep financial trouble quite quickly if your company policy was to only accept gold and silver coins.  In addition, it is far easier to tell counterfeit currency from counterfeit gold and silver, providing of course you've had the proper training and have the right equipment.  

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml  
http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqcur.htm  Same statute this time from the US Federal Reserve

Dig a little deeper and you will see you are wrong. You make distinctions without a difference. It's rigged when it gets into the courts.



Maxx perhaps you would like to point me in the right direction?  Perhaps you would also like to give me some examples where the courts ignored the law and convicted people?  I would be  especially in cases where it was a jury trial.   

The individuals minting and distributing the Ron Paul gold and silver coins are fools.  If they really expected to succeed they are even worse than fools.  It is truly hard to believe that there are people this stupid. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 10, 2010, 03:36:17 AM
Westy:
Quote
The individuals minting and distributing the Ron Paul gold and silver coins are fools.

Let us stay on target, wether or not we are fools is not the issue, the issue is we cannot use GOLD/SILVER coins as legal payment for goods and services if BOTH parties agree to it. And it is typical how you first claim we are free to do so, and then claim the opposite, you have a retention correlation problem.

We are not free to barter (lets call it that) with gold coins, if you try, you will feel the cold hard steel of a police glock in the back of your head.


Yeah...land of the free and all that....riiight!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on November 10, 2010, 08:17:48 AM
Everyone talking about the usd losing value but the Euro in worse shape.

Euro vs usd 10/10/ 2010 .714 on 11/9/2010 .726.  However gold during that time 1342 to 1421.  Euro just getting trashed.  So people in Euro zone with any assets in Euro (including house) losing value on global stage.  Euro .73 today.

If Obama continues to make a weak dollar the Euro is in big trouble.  England was smart by not going to the Euro.  Germany may want to bail on the euro zone as there the only country doing well on mainland euro zone. 

Also gold down today.  Oil still better than gold past two years. $1,600 usd is the critical point for gold if it gets there easy to $2,000 usd however if it stalls than Wall street will make it go below $1,000 usd.  Gold was $832 usd on 11/09/07 and up 68% past three years less than 20% yearly returns. 

JC said he bought gold in 2008 however the price he said was lower than every market date.  I question if he actually has gold.  You might want to go back and edit your post.  You bought gold for $680 usd in 2008.  Find me a daily price at that level in 2008.  http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2008.html   
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/monthly_graphs.plx

Maybe your a pirate and stole some.   :party0031:

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 10, 2010, 09:06:06 AM
Everyone talking about the usd losing value but the Euro in worse shape.

Euro vs usd 10/10/ 2010 .714 on 11/9/2010 .726.  However gold during that time 1342 to 1421.  Euro just getting trashed.  So people in Euro zone with any assets in Euro (including house) losing value on global stage.  Euro .73 today.

If Obama continues to make a weak dollar the Euro is in big trouble.  England was smart by not going to the Euro.  Germany may want to bail on the euro zone as there the only country doing well on mainland euro zone.  

Also gold down today.  Oil still better than gold past two years. $1,600 usd is the critical point for gold if it gets there easy to $2,000 usd however if it stalls than Wall street will make it go below $1,000 usd.  Gold was $832 usd on 11/09/07 and up 68% past three years less than 20% yearly returns.  

JC said he bought gold in 2008 however the price he said was lower than every market date.  I question if he actually has gold.  You might want to go back and edit your post.  You bought gold for $680 usd in 2008.  Find me a daily price at that level in 2008.  http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/2008.html  
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/monthly_graphs.plx

Maybe your a pirate and stole some.   :party0031:


Kievstar , thanks for pointing out my typo, something you could have easily discovered yourself looking at the graph

May I refer to MY previous discussion with another Keynesian [deleted by moderator] Turboguy (see link) where i clearly state my buying price numerous times!!

http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php?topic=10517.msg179432#msg179432

On many incidences in this thread i stated my buying price 860!!  (at 570 euros at the time, again see calculation in the link)

I am real consistant on the 860 usd please pay attention, again I apologize about the reversal of the 8 and the 6, something so obvious,... but as you can see from the posted link, i mentioned the 860 numerous times,

You talk like a broker, not understanding the fundamentals at all!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 10, 2010, 09:13:32 AM
Kievstar;
Quote
also gold down today

A  0.53% drop, ....thats "down"? your joking right?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: msmoby on November 10, 2010, 09:18:52 AM
Everyone talking about the usd losing value but the Euro in worse shape.

?? taken as a recent trend, yes.. but what was the USDvEuro rate on day 1 ?.. someone in Euros would have done rather nicely ;)

If Obama continues to make a weak dollar the Euro is in big trouble.

The weak USD was also a stunt of the last admin., too .. I rather think the Eurozone members behaviour is somewhat more worrying ( e.g. Greece)

  England was smart by not going to the Euro. 

Sighs... It's Britain / UK ..( England is only part of four countries...when someone from N. America called it 'England' it is a bit like calling Canadians 'American' ... )  and if you do biz in Euroland - it is assuredly not beneficial to have to worry about Forex

Germany may want to bail on the euro zone as there the only country doing well on mainland euro zone. 

Hotel California... you can check out - but never leave !


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 10, 2010, 11:30:38 AM
Westy:
Quote
The individuals minting and distributing the Ron Paul gold and silver coins are fools.

Let us stay on target, wether or not we are fools is not the issue, the issue is we cannot use GOLD/SILVER coins as legal payment for goods and services if BOTH parties agree to it. And it is typical how you first claim we are free to do so, and then claim the opposite, you have a retention correlation problem.

We are not free to barter (lets call it that) with gold coins, if you try, you will feel the cold hard steel of a police glock in the back of your head.


Yeah...land of the free and all that....riiight!!!

JC you obviously didn't read the links that I posted.  One link is from the US Treasury and the other is from the US Federal Reserve, both said the same thing.  These two links would be about as authoritative as it gets when referring to what can pass as currency and how a business can operate in America operate and accept payment.  I'll repost a section from both links: There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether or not to accept cash unless there is a State law which says otherwise.

JC the statute is quite clear, there is no federal statute saying that a private business must accept US currency or coins. It does allow that there might be some state statute that requires accepting only US currency and coins but there is no federal statute.  A private business is allowed to develop its own policy regarding payment under federal law.  Therefore you are allowed to set up a private business in the USA where said private business will only accept gold and silver for payment of services and/or product.  Go for it, open the business put up a big sign says "Payment will only be accepted in gold or silver."  See how successful your business will be.  

I've quoted two definitive sources on this issue, if you disagree please do so with some equally definitive sources.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml

http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqcur.htm

Edit:  There are US businesses that will accept only credit cards, debit cards, money orders, etc.  In fact, these businesses will NOT accept US currency or coins.  These businesses usually say that this is their policy because they don't like carrying cash on site to make the business safer for their employees.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 10, 2010, 12:18:32 PM
We are also supposed to have a "voluntary" tax system with compliance being "voluntary".

Definition: "A system of compliance that relies on individual citizens to report their income freely and voluntarily, calculate their tax liability correctly, and file a tax return on time," according to the Internal Revenue Service. Rather like Henry Ford saying "you can get any color you want as long as it's black".

Keep up the good work J_C
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on November 11, 2010, 10:13:51 AM
JC you got the $680 price from previous years and it was not a typo.  You got caught in a lie.  You have no gold and love to lie.

When are you actually going to marry a RW? 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on November 11, 2010, 10:21:23 AM
1msmoby.

Day 1 Euro vs usd would give you less than 1% yearly return.  Is that a great deal?  However when you adjust it for countries coming in after day 1 is is a negative return.

Why during World Cup it was England and not Britain on the uniforms?  Maybe inside Britain / England they need to sort out whether there England or Britain.  Also British papers use England and Britain and refer to one country. 

I have lived in Europe before and you do need to worry about Forex.  Every country has that issue. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: msmoby on November 11, 2010, 02:26:42 PM
1msmoby.

Day 1 Euro vs usd would give you less than 1% yearly return.  Is that a great deal?  However when you adjust it for countries coming in after day 1 is is a negative return.

Hi Kievstar,

I meant - if you had invested 100USD in the Euro in 2001 and ignore any interest you'd have made about 40% on exchange rates by July 2008 - weakening USD.. 


We are back down to the Jan 2010 level after a USD surge ( thank you, Greece) - I wonder what the next six months hold ?


Why during World Cup it was England and not Britain on the uniforms? 

Because 'England' are only one of  four countries that make up the UK and uniquely they are allowed to compete in real football as separate nations .. at govt levels the fate - or otherwise continued existence of the Pound is decided by the BRITISH govt.. ( not the 'English')


Maybe inside Britain / England they need to sort out whether there England or Britain.  Also British papers use England and Britain and refer to one country. 

Oh dear.. I have tried to explain ;) ..  let's try this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom):- second paragraph

I have lived in Europe before and you do need to worry about Forex.  Every country has that issue. 

As I mainly trade in GBP and Euros - almost totally within the EEA/EU - I 'selfishly' wish the GBP didn't exist ;)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 11, 2010, 07:03:20 PM
JC you got the $680 price from previous years and it was not a typo. 


No Kievstar, you are the liar:  I stated a link to MY PREVIOUS posting  this very thread 

But since your ego lets you turn all kinds of twits to save face, I will quote my post for all to see:

JC « Reply #217 on: September 18, 2010, 11:44:54 AM »

Quote
I bought gold at 860 , I am laughing my ass off!
PS: I did not "double" my money, I prevented my savings from being halved!

It states 860 on 8 sept 2010, and you know how to operate a mouse, click a link and read English, so your claim makes you a liar.

Quote
860 usd, that was when 1 euro was 1.6 usd
(or did you also forget I live in France), meaning I bought it for  537 euros.

Now it is at 1275,

....[SNIP]....
 
I would call it roughly "doubling" in my book. Notice i used the quotes again , as the factuality means , my money didnt get cut in half by inflation (Thanks to Greece and other PIGS countries)

Again the 860 is stated, and you know how to operate a mouse, click a link and read English, so your claim makes you a liar.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 11, 2010, 07:07:10 PM
Kievstar:
Quote
I have lived in Europe before and you do need to worry about Forex.  Every country has that issue.

Dude, I have seen claims on this forum, you have a house in Brussels, Live in Switzerland, (recent claims) and now you "have lived in Europe before", all this while your wife was not living with you , but in Ukraine.

Since timetravel machines dont exist, (you cant live and "have lived"(as in not living anymore) in Europe at the same time) this makes you either a liar, or,..., a liar.

Problem with liars, their stories are never consistant)))) hence the rabbit jumping all over the place
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 11, 2010, 09:31:48 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 11, 2010, 10:21:26 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?

Been busy. The issue as I understand it is one cannot opt out of the FR system or aid others to do so as a USC.

http://legallad.quickanddirtytips.com/legal-tender.aspx

Quote
The short answer is that federal legal tender laws require creditors to accept payment denominated in dollars, but generally do not require businesses to accept any particular form of payment -- such as cash.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 12, 2010, 11:00:28 AM
(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usGOLD3.png)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on November 12, 2010, 02:05:47 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?

Been busy. The issue as I understand it is one cannot opt out of the FR system or aid others to do so as a USC.

http://legallad.quickanddirtytips.com/legal-tender.aspx

Quote
The short answer is that federal legal tender laws require creditors to accept payment denominated in dollars, but generally do not require businesses to accept any particular form of payment -- such as cash.


It is PERFECTLY legal to buy and sell goods and/or services in the US without using dollars (FRN's) or coin. It is done all the time. It is called barter(ing). However, the transaction must be 'benchmarked' against a dollar value.

If I were to remodel your house for a value of $50,000 and you wanted to pay me with gold, silver, corn, cars, other professional services or whatever, all of which is perfectly legal, just generally not practical. The issue is the buyer needs to have something the seller wants or is willing to accept. I would happily do work for a car dealer for a new service truck. However I have no interest in doing the same work for say a BMW or SmartCar.

The caveat here is, that the 'income' must be declared as in USD and the appropriate taxes be paid.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 12, 2010, 03:19:34 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?

Been busy. The issue as I understand it is one cannot opt out of the FR system or aid others to do so as a USC.

http://legallad.quickanddirtytips.com/legal-tender.aspx

Quote
The short answer is that federal legal tender laws require creditors to accept payment denominated in dollars, but generally do not require businesses to accept any particular form of payment -- such as cash.


It is PERFECTLY legal to buy and sell goods and/or services in the US without using dollars (FRN's) or coin. It is done all the time. It is called barter(ing). However, the transaction must be 'benchmarked' against a dollar value.

If I were to remodel your house for a value of $50,000 and you wanted to pay me with gold, silver, corn, cars, other professional services or whatever, all of which is perfectly legal, just generally not practical. The issue is the buyer needs to have something the seller wants or is willing to accept. I would happily do work for a car dealer for a new service truck. However I have no interest in doing the same work for say a BMW or SmartCar.

The caveat here is, that the 'income' must be declared as in USD and the appropriate taxes be paid.

And pay taxes?  Maxx and JC will not be liking that.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on November 12, 2010, 04:04:30 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?

Been busy. The issue as I understand it is one cannot opt out of the FR system or aid others to do so as a USC.

http://legallad.quickanddirtytips.com/legal-tender.aspx

Quote
The short answer is that federal legal tender laws require creditors to accept payment denominated in dollars, but generally do not require businesses to accept any particular form of payment -- such as cash.


It is PERFECTLY legal to buy and sell goods and/or services in the US without using dollars (FRN's) or coin. It is done all the time. It is called barter(ing). However, the transaction must be 'benchmarked' against a dollar value.

If I were to remodel your house for a value of $50,000 and you wanted to pay me with gold, silver, corn, cars, other professional services or whatever, all of which is perfectly legal, just generally not practical. The issue is the buyer needs to have something the seller wants or is willing to accept. I would happily do work for a car dealer for a new service truck. However I have no interest in doing the same work for say a BMW or SmartCar.

The caveat here is, that the 'income' must be declared as in USD and the appropriate taxes be paid.

And pay taxes?  Maxx and JC will not be liking that.

Hey, I don't like it either. BUT, and this is a really big but,... I happen to like the view more from outside the cage than from inside it.

For all the crimes he committed personally or others committed in his name, it was tax evasion that eventually put Al Capone in jail.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 12, 2010, 04:09:02 PM
JC still waiting for you to point out why gold can't be used for payment in the USA?

Edit: Maxx what about you?

Been busy. The issue as I understand it is one cannot opt out of the FR system or aid others to do so as a USC.

http://legallad.quickanddirtytips.com/legal-tender.aspx

Quote
The short answer is that federal legal tender laws require creditors to accept payment denominated in dollars, but generally do not require businesses to accept any particular form of payment -- such as cash.


It is PERFECTLY legal to buy and sell goods and/or services in the US without using dollars (FRN's) or coin. It is done all the time. It is called barter(ing). However, the transaction must be 'benchmarked' against a dollar value.

If I were to remodel your house for a value of $50,000 and you wanted to pay me with gold, silver, corn, cars, other professional services or whatever, all of which is perfectly legal, just generally not practical. The issue is the buyer needs to have something the seller wants or is willing to accept. I would happily do work for a car dealer for a new service truck. However I have no interest in doing the same work for say a BMW or SmartCar.

The caveat here is, that the 'income' must be declared as in USD and the appropriate taxes be paid.

And pay taxes?  Maxx and JC will not be liking that.

Damn right I wouldn't. "Opt(ing) out of the FR system" goal is to get out of the Federal tax tyranny. Here is an example of this and the consequences.

http://educate-yourself.org/cn/IRSdefeatoncoinwages18oct07.shtml

http://www.lvrj.com/news/53675157.html






Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 12, 2010, 04:22:54 PM
Quote
For all the crimes he committed personally or others committed in his name, it was tax evasion that eventually put Al Capone in jail.

Your missing the point and putting the horse behind the cart, if the US had not had an intrusive government deciding what is best for people (outlawing and criminalizing alcohol), Organized crime wouldn't exist in the first place, so it is funny to see how some people attribute the solution of a problem to government ,......the problem it created in the first place.

Ps: Lets say I trade 2 live chickens for a "porcelet" (pigglet). Not paying VAT on that is criminal. 

Land of the free,  :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 12, 2010, 04:29:30 PM
--
Quote
And pay taxes?  Maxx and JC will not be liking that.

To bad there is only 2 of us, if there were 10 million, you might see a different kind of Western Civilisation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on November 12, 2010, 04:41:38 PM
Quote
For all the crimes he committed personally or others committed in his name, it was tax evasion that eventually put Al Capone in jail.

Your missing the point and putting the horse behind the cart, if the US had not had an intrusive government deciding what is best for people (outlawing and criminalizing alcohol), Organized crime wouldn't exist in the first place, so it is funny to see how some people attribute the solution of a problem to government ,......the problem it created in the first place.

Ps: Lets say I trade 2 live chickens for a "porcelet" (pigglet). Not paying VAT on that is criminal. 

Land of the free,  :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

No JC,

Once again it is you, taking an excerpt, placing it out of context, then telling the poster where his personal reality is at.

Focus grasshopper!



BTW, there are more than the 2 of you,....... but still not nearly enough :party0031:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 12, 2010, 05:01:04 PM
Quote
For all the crimes he committed personally or others committed in his name, it was tax evasion that eventually put Al Capone in jail.

Your missing the point and putting the horse behind the cart, if the US had not had an intrusive government deciding what is best for people (outlawing and criminalizing alcohol), Organized crime wouldn't exist in the first place, so it is funny to see how some people attribute the solution of a problem to government ,......the problem it created in the first place.

Ps: Lets say I trade 2 live chickens for a "porcelet" (pigglet). Not paying VAT on that is criminal. 

Land of the free,  :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

The US government may be intrusive by your definition but according to experts in the field it is far less intrusive than most of the governments of the world. 


http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 12, 2010, 05:04:47 PM
Quote
The US government may be intrusive by your definition but according to experts in the field it is far less intrusive than most of the governments of the world.

Leftist logic, because a country like North Korea exist, the US can frack over its own citizens  :D. 

Uncle Sam: "....Be glad we(the state) efff'ed you a little, and we dont take all of your money..."


Quote
Once again it is you, taking an excerpt, placing it out of context,

I am sharpening your focus , son!




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on November 12, 2010, 07:06:22 PM
almost bought some silver eagles today, but hesitated and didn't. What do you guys think? Will there be a pullback in silver soon? I have a feeling it might test 23-24dollar range again before it shoots up to $50 or $60 by summertime. Thoughts?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 12, 2010, 08:40:56 PM
almost bought some silver eagles today, but hesitated and didn't. What do you guys think? Will there be a pullback in silver soon? I have a feeling it might test 23-24dollar range again before it shoots up to $50 or $60 by summertime. Thoughts?

Depends on the amount, if you have blocks of 1500 usd , I would buy gold,

Silver has industrial use, so that adds to demand, I am not a speculator, I am very very bad on timing, my strength is into the long term vision and 50/60 usd might be actually on the lower end of the scale.

Feds printing 600 billion coz, the Chinese aren't stupid enough anymore to soak up more US debt, the US is maxing out its credit card before declaring bankruptcy.  The titanic is sinking and chanching the captain (mid term elections) while the bough is under water is not going to save the ship.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on November 12, 2010, 10:27:12 PM
almost bought some silver eagles today, but hesitated and didn't. What do you guys think? Will there be a pullback in silver soon? I have a feeling it might test 23-24dollar range again before it shoots up to $50 or $60 by summertime. Thoughts?

Hard to say about a big pullback. I wouldn't let that stop me from investing in silver as I believe it has a long ways to go upward before it hits it's peak. So you are not going to lose too much unless you are buying a large amount (like the small loaf of bread described below). It is not far from 24 right now... It is $26.05 as I write this. There is more of upside than the risk of a downside.

Silver's positives is that it has wider swings percentage wise from gold. It is more divisible in smaller units than gold. Downside is that it takes allot of it to make something high value. A silver thousand troy ounce bar about the size of a small loaf of bread and weighing 68.58 pounds (Wow are they bulky and difficult to ship!)  equals about $25K. Whereas it takes about 18 troy ounces of gold which is about the size of half of a Snickers candy bar to equal the same 25K (@ $1365/T.O.). This makes gold better for transferring large value to another location. Gold also when you sell it has less of a mark down percentage wise than does silver. Silver often times sells for 1 dollar under spot and costs $3 to $4 over spot to buy. So 4% under spot and 12% to $16% over spot to buy. Gold on the other hand will sell very close to spot, maybe 1 to 2 % under and will cost to buy 2 to 4% over spot. Best to make inquires at your local coin shop or jeweler.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 16, 2010, 03:34:37 AM
Look at what the Chinese can do when they are not wasting their money on US/EU bailouts

Chinese supercomputer world's fastest
 
But U.S. still dominates rankings (-> lie, note from me)
 
Agence France-Presse November 15, 2010
Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/Chinese+supercomputer+world+fastest/3829981/story.html#ixzz15RLI981V
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 26, 2010, 02:28:31 AM
RUSSIA AND CHINA QUIT THE DOLLAR

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/24/content_11599087.htm

(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20101124/0023ae73cfef0e569b3f59.jpg)
Quote

Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday.ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP

 

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

Thanks for the "spend" and "print" policies of the last to fiscally socialist presidents Bush and Obama!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 26, 2010, 02:41:49 AM
RUSSIA AND CHINA QUIT THE DOLLAR

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/24/content_11599087.htm

(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20101124/0023ae73cfef0e569b3f59.jpg)
Quote

Premier Wen Jiabao shakes hands with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on a visit to St. Petersburg on Tuesday.ALEXEY DRUZHININ / AFP

 

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

Thanks for the "spend" and "print" policies of the last to fiscally socialist presidents Bush and Obama!


An interesting article.  It should be interesting to see how two very corrupt countries get along using their own currencies, which they both tend to manipulate, to conduct trade between the two countries. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 26, 2010, 03:40:17 AM
Logic Westy,

If crooks seem to trust other crooks more then the fed, doesnt thay say something about the fed?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 26, 2010, 04:42:31 PM
Logic Westy,

If crooks seem to trust other crooks more then the fed, doesnt thay say something about the fed?

Why would you worry about two corrupt countries trusting the central bank of another country?  The real question is how long will this currency cooperation between China and Russia last?  Will it spread to the far less corrupt countries?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 26, 2010, 09:24:19 PM
Not getting the point as usual,

Anyway,

Eurozone is not going to make christmas fellas

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704693104575638132375883318.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Spain needs immediate infusion of money! and represents 10% of GDP of the Eurozone!

Look at that big domino called Spain:

(http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AD491A_BAILO_NS_20101126181638.gif)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 27, 2010, 03:12:23 PM
Not getting the point as usual,

Anyway,

Eurozone is not going to make christmas fellas

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704693104575638132375883318.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Spain needs immediate infusion of money! and represents 10% of GDP of the Eurozone!

Look at that big domino called Spain:

(http://sg.wsj.net/public/resources/images/WO-AD491A_BAILO_NS_20101126181638.gif)



JC do you bother to read your links?  All the people in this link say that Spain doesn't need a bailout and hasn't asked for one.  For example:

"It's absolutely, completely false," European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said, echoing assurances from Berlin, Lisbon and Madrid that officials hadn't already moved on to Portugal or its much larger neighbor. "It has neither been asked for and neither have we suggested it," he said.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on November 27, 2010, 04:56:06 PM
Westy, as you know, every politician who ever spoke out about  any Western nation deeply in debt  since the "credit-crises" happened, has never been wrong or has never lied!

Trust your government!! and everything will be ok!

[SHEOPLE MODE OFF]

And of course logic (the one we call "common sense") dictates that when countries( with over 100% of GDP to debt ratio) like Ireland fail, countries like Spain (with even same/higher GDP/DEBT ratio's) will not fail!

If one straw breaks the camel back, two straws wont, ...right Westy?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 29, 2010, 04:29:45 PM
almost bought some silver eagles today, but hesitated and didn't. What do you guys think? Will there be a pullback in silver soon? I have a feeling it might test 23-24dollar range again before it shoots up to $50 or $60 by summertime. Thoughts?

Ed:

See NIA videos (Meltup and new The day the dollar died) http://inflation.us/videos.html

Plus interesting guest on Consuelo Mack Wealth Track on PBS this weekend - Canadian Wealth Advisor in Commodity Currencies and GOLD and Silver Mining Companies especially Canadian:  http://inflation.us/stocks.html

and;  http://wealthtrack.com/ (Warned of housing bubble in 2004 - #2 Rated economist on Wall Street - returned to Canada last year - what does he know that we don't???)

David Rosenberg Chief Economist
Gluskin Sheff & Associates

On this week’s Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, a Financial Thought Leader who called the credit and housing bubbles way ahead of the pack. Gluskin Sheff’s prescient Chief Economist, David Rosenberg shares his economic and market outlook, plus advice on how to invest in it.
 
See Gold Discussion at end of video - Quote: Only Time not to own gold is during 3 Ps (Peace, Prosperity and Price Stability) we have neither... and demand is up at Asian central banks for Gold and Silver...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 07, 2010, 03:48:43 PM
NIA Addresses Bernanke's '60 Minutes' Interview
 
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was a guest on '60 Minutes' this evening and the National Inflation Association felt it was important to address Bernanke's comments.
 
Bernanke claims to be concerned primarily about two things: unemployment and deflation. Bernanke says between the economic peak and the end of last year, 8.5 million jobs in America were lost with only 1 million jobs being regained since then. He says it could take 4 to 5 years for the U.S. to get back to a "more normal unemployment rate of 5% or 6%".
 
The truth is, real unemployment in the U.S. today once you account for everybody who has given up looking for work as well as everybody who is underemployed, is already about 22%. NIA believes it is more likely that in 4 to 5 years from now, U.S. unemployment will rise to Great Depression levels. Bernanke's policy of printing money and creating inflation will not create jobs because the money the Fed creates is going to fund non-productive and wasteful U.S. government spending. The only jobs being created are artificial government jobs.
 
U.S. government spending is up 108% from 10 years ago. We have a U.S. government spending bubble that will eventually go bust by the U.S. dollar becoming worthless and the U.S. government no longer being able to meet its obligations. Bernanke says we should only be concerned about the long-term deficit because in "10, 15, or 20 years from now the entire budget will be spent on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and interest payments on the debt" and "there will be no money left for the military or other services the government provides".
 
The truth is, the U.S. currently has a budget deficit from just Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security alone and even if the U.S. got rid of all government spending besides Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, it wouldn't be enough to balance the budget (including changes in our unfunded liabilities). Countries usually see hyperinflation of their currencies once interest payments on their national debt reach about 50% of tax receipts, and the U.S. is at risk of seeing interest payments on its debt reach 50% of tax receipts in the middle of this decade. In other words, the U.S. should be concerned about surviving these next 5 years, before it worries about surviving the next 10, 15, or 20 years.
 
According to Bernanke, inflation is "very very low" and this is a major concern to him because we are very close to falling prices or deflation, which he says would lead to falling wages. Bernanke believes that with his $600 billion in "quantitative easing", the risk of deflation is now "pretty low" but if he didn't act, deflation would be a more serious concern.
 
The truth is, gold is the best gauge of inflation, not the government's phony CPI numbers. Gold is above $1,400 per ounce and near a new all time high. If deflation was as serious of a risk as Bernanke says, we would be seeing falling gold prices. Bernanke's quantitative easing has now made deflation absolutely impossible and Americans need to be concerned about the risk of massive inflation and perhaps hyperinflation. If we saw deflation, it would actually be a good thing because the savings and incomes of middle-class Americans would be worth more and prices for food and energy will become cheaper.
 
Bernanke says that those who look at the $600 billion in quantitative easing as being inflationary are "not looking at the risks of not acting". He says the Fed has "very carefully analyzed inflation every which way" and that fears of inflation are "way overstated". Bernanke claims it is a "myth" that the Fed is "printing money" because the "money in circulation is not changing in any significant way".
 
The truth is, the Fed's M2 money supply has risen by $44.9 billion to $8.8092 trillion over the past month. If you annualize this increase, we are talking about a 6.1% increase in the M2 money supply. All Americans who shop for food, gas, or clothes, realize that the U.S. currently has around 6% price inflation and the CPI's 1.17% rate way understates inflation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses geometric weighting and hedonics to understate inflation. The government's CPI simply cannot be relied upon.
 
Bernanke admitted in his 60 Minutes interview that he did not see the panic of 2008 coming. His excuse was that the Fed didn't have oversight of AIG or Lehman Brothers, and if the Fed had more powers they would have seen the crisis coming.
 
The truth is, there are many Austrian economists, including those who co-founded and are associated with NIA, who did see the panic of 2008 coming. Every Austrian economist who predicted the panic of 2008, now believes that massive inflation is in our future. It doesn't make sense for Americans to trust Bernanke about inflation when he was wrong about the housing bubble and just about everything else.
 
Bernanke went on to say that the reason the U.S. has the largest income disparity gap out of any country in the world is because of "educational differences". Bernanke claims that unemployment for Americans with college degrees is only 5%, compared to 10% unemployment for Americans with just a high school education.
 
The truth is, the reason for our income disparity gap is inflation. When the Fed prints money, it steals from the incomes and savings of the poor and middle-class and transfers this wealth to those on Wall Street who have access to the Fed's cheap and easy money. It has nothing to do with education. In fact, because of Bernanke making it so easy for college students to get student loans, the U.S. has a college tuition inflation crisis.
 
College tuitions now cost 60% of the median U.S. income, triple the rate of 20% which held strong from 1950 to 1980. Americans today who have college degrees are now worst off, because they are deeply into debt. The only reason their rate of unemployment is lower than those without college degrees is because those with college degrees are more determined to find jobs. If you ask any college graduate who has a job if their college degree helped them become employed, NIA believes the overwhelming majority of college graduates will tell you no.
 
Bernanke says that he is "trying to achieve balance" and "will not allow inflation to rise above 2%". He says the Fed can "raise interest rates in 15 minutes if we have to" and the Fed will have "no problem raising rates, tightening monetary policy, and reducing inflation when the time is appropriate".
 
NIA believes the time is appropriate to raise interest rates now. The real rate of inflation is already a lot higher than 2% and if Bernanke waits for the U.S. to be in an all out currency crisis, it will be impossible to contain inflation. The U.S. will have a major inflationary problem with rising precious metals, food, energy, and clothing prices, until the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to a level that is higher than the real rate of price inflation. If the Fed waits for real price inflation in the U.S. to be in the double-digits, it means we will need to see double-digit interest rates, which will send our interest payments on the national debt to over $1 trillion per year.
 
Bernanke says that all the Fed's quantitative easing is doing is, "lowering interest rates", but in fact, yields on the 10-year bond are now 2.97%, a new four-month high. NIA believes it is likely that bond yields will continue to rise dramatically in the months ahead, with 10-year bond yields likely to rise above 4% in the first half of 2011. The Fed's goal of keeping interest rates low is obviously failing. The bond bubble is getting ready to burst, which will collapse the U.S. government debt bubble with it.
 
Americans simply cannot trust Bernanke, who has continuously lied to the American public and been wrong about everything. All Americans need to realize that the real economic crisis is still ahead and it will come as a result of Bernanke's dangerous and destructive actions. Americans need to be preparing now for hyperinflation if they want to survive, because the U.S. government will soon no longer be able to provide for them.
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on December 08, 2010, 01:18:12 PM
My college degree helped me - worth every penny.

If your worried about paying for future children's college education marry a tall RW and your kid will easily get a paid athletic scholarship.  Or worst case super model. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on December 09, 2010, 08:32:48 PM
My college degree helped me - worth every penny.

If your worried about paying for future children's college education marry a tall RW and your kid will easily get a paid athletic scholarship.  Or worst case super model. 

Agreed,

So,...how is your Ukrainian wife doing? still married?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Coolmen on December 13, 2010, 08:12:43 AM
Interesting read especially as I am involved in small scale mining in Africa. Gold is the 56 rarest mineral on earth and its intrinsic value is based on its many ways of use. No other mineral is that workable like gold doing thin sheets of gold without them breaking the elasticity of the gold. But his real value is the fact that gold is the only monetary value which can not be altered by politicans or groups. One of the reason why gold is on the raise, if all money is nothing worth anymore gold will become the major currency deposit. Money without real gold reserves will have no value, that is the way how nations will be formed in the future.
On the other hand is small scale mining an important factor for millions of people who doing that mining for their daily life with all the advantage and disadvantage behind and within the small scale mining groups. The biggest disadvantage are the environmental destruction and the bacterial, viral and heavy metal poisoning of Body and surroundings. I tested for the last couple of week the Advanced Oxidation system in several small scale mining concessions and the results are great and have lead to the set up of the final practical system for small scale mining. Providing excellent water in the mining process, fish farming and other agricultural projects so the assets out of the ground become an Asset and as well a Liability in social capital community systems.
Gold as an asset holds its value by it rarity which is good so! We as humans have to renew our way of financial thinking and handling as Countries we are mostly bankrupt, being able to print as much as they want and see fit the collaps is just extended but will come.
So having a bit of gold is a good option.
Cheers
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on December 13, 2010, 02:59:15 PM
Interesting read especially as I am involved in small scale mining in Africa. Gold is the 56 rarest mineral on earth and its intrinsic value is based on its many ways of use. No other mineral is that workable like gold doing thin sheets of gold without them breaking the elasticity of the gold. But his real value is the fact that gold is the only monetary value which can not be altered by politicans or groups. One of the reason why gold is on the raise, if all money is nothing worth anymore gold will become the major currency deposit. Money without real gold reserves will have no value, that is the way how nations will be formed in the future.
On the other hand is small scale mining an important factor for millions of people who doing that mining for their daily life with all the advantage and disadvantage behind and within the small scale mining groups. The biggest disadvantage are the environmental destruction and the bacterial, viral and heavy metal poisoning of Body and surroundings. I tested for the last couple of week the Advanced Oxidation system in several small scale mining concessions and the results are great and have lead to the set up of the final practical system for small scale mining. Providing excellent water in the mining process, fish farming and other agricultural projects so the assets out of the ground become an Asset and as well a Liability in social capital community systems.
Gold as an asset holds its value by it rarity which is good so! We as humans have to renew our way of financial thinking and handling as Countries we are mostly bankrupt, being able to print as much as they want and see fit the collaps is just extended but will come.
So having a bit of gold is a good option.
Cheers

Coolmen got to disagree with you about future societies relying on gold as a backing for currency.  This won't happen not a chance.  Most nations went off gold prior to or during WW1 to finance the war.  While most nations returned to some type of gold standard after the war eventually over the decades all major nations went off the gold standard.  The simple fact is no one in the banking industry wants a return to the gold standard and the banking and investment community are key players in the political mess that we call government.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 25, 2011, 02:10:21 PM

Real Estate Double Dip Recession: U.S. Home Prices Slump Again, Hitting New Lows
nytimes

DAVID STREITFELD, On Tuesday January 25, 2011, 10:43 am EST

The long-predicted double-dip in housing has begun, with cities across the country falling to their lowest point in many years, data released Tuesday showed.

Prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell 1 percent in November from October, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The index is only 3.3 percent above the low it reached in April 2009 and has fallen fell 1.6 percent from a year ago.

“A double-dip could be confirmed before spring,” the chairman of S.&P.’s index committee, David M. Blitzer, said.

Eight of the 20 cities in the index fell to new lows for this cycle, including Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Portland, Ore.; Miami, Seattle; and Tampa, Fla. Only a handful of places — essentially California and Washington — saw prices rise.

Analysts said the declines would continue even if they would be nowhere near as intense as in 2007 and 2008.

“The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,” Joshua Shapiro, the chief United States economist of MFR Inc., said.

The housing market, which usually leads the economy out of a recession, is holding it back this time. New home sales are in the doldrums and mortgages are hard to come by. Government programs have stanched the bleeding but do not provide permanent relief.

In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.

Prices in Atlanta and Chicago fell more than 7 percent, exceeding even the drops in the perennially troubled Detroit and Las Vegas.

The Case-Shiller Index is a three-month average of prices. One hopeful sign is that on both a seasonally adjusted and an unadjusted basis, the declines measured in November were less than in October.

The 20 cities fell 0.5 percent on seasonally adjusted basis in November after a 1 percent drop in October.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 25, 2011, 03:00:51 PM

 U.S. Home Prices Slump Again

I don't see any mention that gold has done it's share of slumping lately.  Any of you speculators getting nervous yet?

Personally, although I have enjoyed this thread I would find a thread on stocks much more interesting.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on January 25, 2011, 04:19:53 PM
I don't see any mention that gold has done it's share of slumping lately.  Any of you speculators getting nervous yet?

Personally, although I have enjoyed this thread I would find a thread on stocks much more interesting.

My stock's lost some ground since the beginning of the year but still up overall. :) Watching it, though. But yeah, precious metals (gold) has dropped off. Talking heads are saying maybe as low as $1270.(USD) Reasons being a higher interest rate and a return of investor confidence (US).

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on January 25, 2011, 04:55:36 PM
Will be interesting to see if gold goes to 2,000 or 1,000 first.  I no longer play in it since activity has fallen off past month.  One of those once in a decade (maybe century)opportunities to buy and sell gold and make a ton on a daily basis. 

Oil and gas stocks hot ticket currently - can not keep up with the international orders for new discoveries in West Africa, North Sea, Brazil, Middle East and South East Asia.  GOM continues to be slow and reason oil prices have gone up.  Level of activity is highest in 10 years.  Shale gas exploding in northeast with new technology. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 25, 2011, 05:09:45 PM
@Westy,

This thread started when gold was well below $1000 usd,  during its steep rise, the only thing you can say "its all a scam",

Sure dude,  trust your federal issued funny paper, its  your choice to sink your time and labor into it. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 26, 2011, 07:16:43 PM
I don't see any mention that gold has done it's share of slumping lately.  Any of you speculators getting nervous yet?

Personally, although I have enjoyed this thread I would find a thread on stocks much more interesting.

My stock's lost some ground since the beginning of the year but still up overall. :) Watching it, though. But yeah, precious metals (gold) has dropped off. Talking heads are saying maybe as low as $1270.(USD) Reasons being a higher interest rate and a return of investor confidence (US).

Brass

[attachimg=1]

For what it is worth Fed will keep rates at or near zero until all adjustable mortgages reset through 2013 (see jpg) as most still backed by trillions in credit default swaps (Think AIG, Lehman Bros and Bear Sterns all over again but worse) and since major wall street banks will not do loan modifications Fed boxed in to 0% rates for at least 2 more years  - and the consequences will be:

Obama Fails to Address Inflation in State of the Union
 
President Obama's State of the Union address last night did not make one single mention of inflation, when it is the belief of NIA that massive price inflation (especially food inflation) will become America's top crisis by the end of this calendar year. Obama's speech also failed to mention the Federal Reserve, the Federal Funds Rate being held near 0% for over two years, and the Fed's latest round of $600 billion in quantitative easing. Unless Obama addresses our nation's fiat currency system, nothing else he says has any meaning at all.
 
After the U.S. lost 8.36 million jobs over a two year period from December of 2007 through December of 2009, our economy has recovered 1.12 million jobs as a result of the Federal Reserve and U.S. government spending $4.6 trillion on bailouts and stimulus programs. That is over $4 million spent for each job created. Instead of bailing out Wall Street and allowing non-productive bankers to receive record bonuses, the U.S. could have sent a check for $550,000 to each middle-class American who lost their job.
 
When a central bank prints trillions of dollars out of thin air, you are going to see some type of a nominal uptick in economic statistics. Obama can brag all he wants about over 1 million jobs being created, but he continues to ignore what the ultimate cost of it will be. When a government has an annual cash budget deficit of over $1 trillion that cannot possibly be balanced by raising taxes, massive inflation is the inevitable outcome. Our real budget deficit, once you include increases in our unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, is already north of $5 trillion. NIA believes the U.S. is now at serious risk of experiencing hyperinflation by the year 2015.
 
Obama proposed in his speech that "we freeze annual domestic spending for the next five years" saying it "would reduce the deficit by more than $400 billion over the next decade, and will bring discretionary spending to the lowest share of our economy since Dwight Eisenhower was president." The truth is, Obama's proposals, if successfully implemented, would not reduce the deficit by $400 billion over the next decade. They would only cut $400 billion from proposed spending increases. NIA doesn't understand why Obama would even waste his breath talking about reducing the deficit by $400 billion over the next decade, when the Federal Reserve is creating $600 billion in monetary inflation over a period of just eight months. Americans who listened to Obama speak last night wasted over an hour of their time, because until the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and stops printing money, it will be impossible for the U.S. economy to truly recover and become healthy.
 
Even if the U.S. government cut all discretionary spending down to zero, we would still have a budget deficit from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid alone. Surprisingly, Obama admitted that most of the cuts he proposed "only address annual domestic spending, which represents a little more than 12% of our budget." When referring to the Deficit Commission's proposed spending cuts, Obama said "their conclusion is that the only way to tackle our deficit is to cut excessive spending wherever we find it". In what was Obama's most shocking statement of the night, he went on to say, "This means further reducing health care costs, including programs like Medicare and Medicaid, which are the single biggest contributor to our long-term deficit."
 
This is the closest Obama has ever come to admitting that major cuts to Medicare and Medicaid are necessary, if we want to have any hope of ever balancing our budget. However, NIA is taking Obama's comments with a grain of salt. He immediately changed the subject in the very next sentence, claiming his health care reform law that was enacted last year "will slow these rising costs". He then continued to defend the law saying, "repealing the health care law would add a quarter of a trillion dollars to our deficit."
 
One week ago, the new Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives voted 245-189 to repeal Obama's health care reform law. The House's vote to repeal it is meaningless because it would never pass the U.S. Senate and even if it did, Obama would simply veto it. NIA believes the law should be repealed because it is impossible for government legislation to bring down health care costs. Only the free market can bring down health care costs and the health care reform law will impede the free market more than any piece of legislation has ever impeded the free market in any industry or sector in history. In our opinion, the new health care law is guaranteed to add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade and there is absolutely no chance of Obama ever making the necessary dramatic cuts to Medicare and Medicaid until the U.S. is already in the middle of an outbreak of hyperinflation.
 
When it comes to Social Security, Obama said we need a "bipartisan solution to strengthen" it and "we must do it without putting at risk current retirees" and "without slashing benefits for future generations". In other words, nobody in Washington is even going to bring up the possibility of cutting or eliminating Social Security, because it would be political suicide for them. We need more honest representatives in Washington like Ron Paul who aren't afraid to speak the truth about the need to cut entitlement programs and inform the American public to the consequences of our government's deficit spending.
 
Most Americans think they don't have to worry about our country's national debt because our grandchildren are the ones who will ultimately be responsible to pay it off. Unfortunately, it won't just be our grandchildren who feel the pain of our deficit spending and monetary inflation. All Americans with incomes and savings in U.S. dollars along with all foreigners holding dollar-denominated assets will begin to feel the pain of our government's destructive actions in the very near future through massive price inflation and the U.S. dollar losing nearly all of its purchasing power.
 
One thing from last night's State of the Union address is very clear, Obama is not serious about cutting spending and nobody in Washington has any expectation of the U.S. ever returning to a balanced budget. NIA believes that this past week's dip in the prices of gold and silver is an unbelievable buying opportunity for Americans who already own precious metals as well as those wishing to buy precious metals for the first time. Sure, both gold and silver could dip lower in the short-term, but we can't try to time short-term fluctuations and we need to stay focused on the long-term destruction of the U.S. dollar. In future State of the Union addresses to come in another year or two down the road, the entire focus of the President's speech will likely be on inflation and the collapsing U.S. dollar. When that time comes and mainstream America becomes aware of what NIA members have known for years, we could easily see $5,000 per ounce gold and $500 per ounce silver, and everybody will regret not loading up as much as possible at these levels.
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 27, 2011, 02:57:54 PM
Quote from: cufflinks link=topic=10517.msg193531#msg193531
we could easily see $5,000 per ounce gold and $500 per ounce silver, and everybody will regret not loading up as much as possible at these levels.
 

Perhaps you will see $ 5000 per ounce and perhaps you will see $ 800.00 an ounce which is what I believe.   Here is part of an article on "The Street" today

NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Gold prices suffered more losses Thursday on lackluster physical buying as gold's appeal as a safe haven deteriorated.

Gold for February delivery dropped $14.60 to $1,318.40 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. But the futures market wasn't where gold was getting killed. The spot gold price was sinking more than $28, according to Kitco's gold index.

The gold price on the Comex was still stuck its recent range, trading as high as $1,347.50 and as low as $1,315.70 during Thursday's session. Gold is now testing its $1,315 support level. If prices can't hold, the next downward step is $1,265 an ounce.

They went on to say Gold was losing it's shine.

Oh, and by the way, my stocks are up about 25% or more over the last 60 days.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 27, 2011, 03:30:02 PM
Obama said "their conclusion is that the only way to tackle our deficit is to cut excessive spending wherever we find it".

Unbelievable and this African made it to president of the United States?

Oh, and by the way, my stocks are up about 25% or more over the last 60 days.

If money is worthless you want to hold assets,
aka companies, gold, land, etc etc
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 27, 2011, 05:14:27 PM

If money is worthless you want to hold assets,
aka companies, gold, land, etc etc

Well I just came from having dinner at Waffle House and they seemed to have no problem tanking my money so it's not worthless yet.   If they had insisted on gold only, how do you pay for a $ 6.00 omelet in gold?

Personally I think fewer and fewer people believe money will be worthless and as fewer believe that gold prices will come down.  Personally I always felt that investments that go up were more desirable.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 27, 2011, 05:30:02 PM
@Westy,

This thread started when gold was well below $1000 usd,  during its steep rise, the only thing you can say "its all a scam",

Sure dude,  trust your federal issued funny paper, its  your choice to sink your time and labor into it.

Sorry JC, but that is incorrect.   This thread was started by you on March 10th and in your first post you stated the price of gold was $ 1150.00.   If that is below a grand we learned a different kind of math.  Go back and read your first post.

On March 10th, the day of the first post in this thread, the DOW closed at 10,561.   Today it was bouncing up and down at the 12,000 mark.   Now you could look at that and say that a given amount of money invested either way would have returned a similar amount.   When you invest in gold you have a lump of metal that does nothing except sit there and look pretty (like some AW I have known)   Stocks are a piece of a real live company that does something and sometimes they do this funny thing like pay dividends.  Add in some dividend income and stocks were the better investment.   Personally I think that will be much more the case over the next few months.  I expect gold to drop at least $ 100.00 and stocks to go up over 12,500 or more.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on January 28, 2011, 12:59:23 PM
On March 10th, the day of the first post in this thread, the DOW closed at 10,561.   Today it was bouncing up and down at the 12,000 mark.   Now you could look at that and say that a given amount of money invested either way would have returned a similar amount.   When you invest in gold you have a lump of metal that does nothing except sit there and look pretty (like some AW I have known)   Stocks are a piece of a real live company that does something and sometimes they do this funny thing like pay dividends.  Add in some dividend income and stocks were the better investment.   Personally I think that will be much more the case over the next few months.  I expect gold to drop at least $ 100.00 and stocks to go up over 12,500 or more.

I think TG has a point - Regardless of what you believe, something significant is about to happen (the $1500. vs. $800. gold scenario).

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/01/28/gold-and-oil-jump-on-egypt-turmoil/

economic times (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-up-from-4-month-lows-ahead-of-us-data/articleshow/7378957.cms)

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/market-brassed-off-with-gold/story-fn6bn4mv-1225996405878

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on January 28, 2011, 03:40:23 PM
I suppose it depends upon the distance of your horizon: http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/01/28/why-america-will-be-blindsided-by-this-currency-shock/

A scare story to be sure but well grounded in known fact and sound economics. One might be looking at buying assets that are not denominated in dollars and that are controlled or produced in a productive economy.

When those exported dollars come back to the US there will be a mighty wailing and gnashing of teeth - unless one is holding assets priced in the new reserve currency and purchased with 'old' dollars. ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on January 28, 2011, 04:15:31 PM
...A scare story to be sure but well grounded in known fact and sound economics. One might be looking at buying assets that are not denominated in dollars and that are controlled or produced in a productive economy.

When those exported dollars come back to the US there will be a mighty wailing and gnashing of teeth - unless one is holding assets priced in the new reserve currency and purchased with 'old' dollars. ;)

Well they're making inroads here that's for sure. An article from last week...

"TORONTO (Dow Jones)-Canada's Bank of Montreal (BMO) began settling transactions denominated in yuan for its North American corporate clients this past week after becoming the first Canadian lender to receive yuan-trade settlement permission from China's central bank. ..."

..."One could construe in a broad sense that China is trying to broaden its economic relations to a wider array of countries, and certainly, one way to facilitate that is to allow some transactions to take place directly in other currencies, particularly as it relates to trade activity," Sinche said.

"By trying to eliminate trading through the U.S. dollar-yuan, it's an attempt to take that direct bilateral exchange rate out of the equation, and it could be, potentially, partly a political issue not to have that much money flowing back and forth through the U.S. dollar," he said.

Bank of Montreal said its yuan transactions this past week were "in the millions" and that their clients requested anonymity."....

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110121-711068.html

Could be that China is trying to take U.S. currency out of the equation.

Brass

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 28, 2011, 04:17:00 PM
  Personally I think that will be much more the case over the next few months.  I expect gold to drop at least $ 100.00 and stocks to go up over 12,500 or more.

i dont.

if you are talking about the dow going up to 12,500, you need to know where we are now.

even w/ the sell off over egypt today, only 3 times in the last 10 years; has the market been this overbought.

also, within the next 3 weeks, the FED will end permanent open market operations and that basically is the FED putting money into the stock market daily. now, its possible they continue that; but we won't know for 3 weeks yet.

so, i'm expecting a 5-10% correction within the next month.

now, of course; the FED still has quantatative easing going until june; so the market will should still rise until thats over; but i dont think it will keep rising at the pace it has been for the past three months.

i dont follow gold enough to predict it.

segue:
i listen to a financial show in Houston, www.streettalklive.com. i think i've mentioned it before; but these guys are great, they have a free weekly newsletter that i would highly advise anyone interested in the US economy and markets to get. if i would have been following them in 2007 and 2008, i would be retired now(yes, theyre that spot on).
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 28, 2011, 05:45:55 PM
Quote
This thread was started by you on March 10th and in your first post you stated the price of gold was $ 1150.00.   If that is below a grand we learned a different kind of math.  Go back and read your first post.

Did it by heart, did not took  the effort to go back to page one and search, but I have been discussing gold since i bought it at 860 (yeah i said 860, not 680, please don't misread again).

Anyhow, I am not turn back the pagebending post of "suck puppetness" (pun).   Because i actually think you know exactly what is going on but are to chicken to admit it to yourself.

Enjoy Zimbabwenomics, you can always look at the Sahara region/North Korea or whatever shithole and delude yourself that "well the USA is still doing pretty good". (as is why are third world turd countries normative anyway?)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 28, 2011, 05:48:36 PM
Quote
Well I just came from having dinner at Waffle House and they seemed to have no problem tanking my money so it's not worthless yet.

Paying the same price for waffles as you did a year ago? I think not!

By the way it is legal tender by law, try using something else and you will feel the cold hard steel of a policeglock in the back of your head!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on January 28, 2011, 06:11:56 PM

Could be that China is trying to take U.S. currency out of the equation.

Brass

There is a single clear benefit to becoming the main global reserve currency:

When you are in that situation other people need your currency in order to make many Kinds of transactions. This means that, at the moment, the US is able to export dollars and thus they can print more dollars than are circulated in the US. An increase in money supply is what inflation is. (Yes, I know that textbooks say that inflation is a general increase in prices but in truth that is a symptom, it is not the cause, increasing money supply is the cause of inflation.)

So, the US prints dollars and we buy 'em to pay for our gold and wheat and oil. We buy 'em as savings instruments as bonds, we buy 'em as a reserve currency in case our currency goes titsup.

Just imagine what will happen in the US when the US dollars start to be repatriated?
Remember that every barrel of oil that is NOT paid for with dollars is, in effect, a dollar that is repatriated because the Fed prints dollars based upon their needs and previous expectations of the behavior of other stakeholders.
Imagine what will happen when the US has to exchange yuan for dollars to buy oil?

The money supply in the US will increase hugely as those dollars come back home so not only will you have the Fed printing money to inflate away national debt but the additional supply will cause even more inflation. The prospect is scary.

A few years ago the Chinese were not in a position to wage this economic war, they are pretty much at a point where they are confident enough to do it.

The next world war will not be fought, at first at least, with guns and bombs but with economic tools.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on January 28, 2011, 06:43:49 PM
I suppose it depends upon the distance of your horizon: http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/01/28/why-america-will-be-blindsided-by-this-currency-shock/

A scare story to be sure but well grounded in known fact and sound economics. One might be looking at buying assets that are not denominated in dollars and that are controlled or produced in a productive economy.

When those exported dollars come back to the US there will be a mighty wailing and gnashing of teeth - unless one is holding assets priced in the new reserve currency and purchased with 'old' dollars. ;)

Andrew it's understandable that you would believe what this guy's selling.  His product is better presented than your "research reports" but in the end the quality is no less lacking.  Economists have long speculated about when the Chinese economy might surpass the economy of the US, twenty years or so is the usual answer.  I've never seen any reports of it happening in less than ten years. 

Note that the author of the article doesn't list the economists who state that the Chinese economy will surpass the US economy "in just eight short years".  Nor does he give credit to the economist who created the chart showing this happening in 2019.    Why do you think that is?  There could be many reasons. 

Perhaps the author is just making it all up to hype his business of selling subscriptions his newsletter.   Perhaps it's because those doing the predicting have no record of credibility in the international financial community.  After all anyone can predict anything, do it often enough and you might get one or two correct.  To be respected and trusted in the international financial community takes more than one or two lucky guesses every hundred predictions.   

As for striking deals to trade in the currencies of the two trading countries that only makes sense, it saves time and money.  The important factor is can it be done for years, in good times and more importantly in bad times.  That only time will tell. 

The problem with the trading in the yuan that is not addressed in this article is that as the yuan is traded in more and more countries for longer and longer periods of time the higher in value it will trade.  It's inevitable, that's what happened to the US currency, leading it to become the world's de facto reserve currency.  As the yuan gains in value against the US currency, the more likely it is that fewer American and European companies will set up shop in China. 

After all with the value of the yuan so high that will mean that Chinese workers will have to be paid progressively more, with future wage hikes expected.  Since everything in China is priced in yuan, everything in China will be that much more expensive and more importantly everything back home will be that much cheaper.  Those companies already in China will start moving operations back to America or Europe or perhaps to some new emerging low wage country.  Companies still in their home countries will not move to China and will probably wait to see if any newly developing low wage countries can be trusted to run an honest market system. 

Andrew, notice how the author closes out the article.  He says to profit from the coming currency shock "buy and hold Asian currencies" and sign up for his "free report".  He's a currency trader and sells subscriptions to his newsletter and is giving away a "free report", think there's a connection?   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 28, 2011, 09:10:04 PM
Quote from: leeholsen
so, i'm expecting a 5-10% correction within the next month.

i listen to a financial show in Houston, www.streettalklive.com. i think i've mentioned it before; but these guys are great, they have a free weekly newsletter that i would highly advise anyone interested in the US economy and markets to get. if i would have been following them in 2007 and 2008, i would be retired now(yes, theyre that spot on).

Well, the nice thing about that prediction is that we only have to wait a month  to find out.  I will remember this and respond again in 30 days.

Humm, being able to retire in profits from 2007 to 2011 is great.  Of course if you listened to JC you could have done that in a year.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 28, 2011, 09:16:54 PM
Quote from: JeanClaude
Did it by heart, did not took  the effort to go back to page one and search, but I have been discussing gold since i bought it at 860 (yeah i said 860, not 680, please don't misread again).


Well actually that is not quite correct JC.   You commented that you had bought gold at 680 US dollars.  When I commented that gold was well over that price when you said you bought it then all of a sudden you decided that you had bought them in Euros. 

During WW II there was a saying "Loose lips sink ships"  I am not sure what loose facts do.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 28, 2011, 09:24:23 PM
Quote
Well I just came from having dinner at Waffle House and they seemed to have no problem tanking my money so it's not worthless yet.

Paying the same price for waffles as you did a year ago? I think not!

By the way it is legal tender by law, try using something else and you will feel the cold hard steel of a policeglock in the back of your head!

As far as I know Waffle House has not raised prices in the last year.  I didn't follow what you were talking about as legal tender.  Dollars???   Yes, they are and again I have not had a bit of trouble using them.   I tend to doubt the police would hold a glock to my head over payment for a waffle.   I do think I would have had problems trying to pay for my waffle in gold however.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 29, 2011, 10:28:47 AM
Quote from: leeholsen
so, i'm expecting a 5-10% correction within the next month.

i listen to a financial show in Houston, www.streettalklive.com. i think i've mentioned it before; but these guys are great, they have a free weekly newsletter that i would highly advise anyone interested in the US economy and markets to get. if i would have been following them in 2007 and 2008, i would be retired now(yes, theyre that spot on).

Well, the nice thing about that prediction is that we only have to wait a month  to find out.  I will remember this and respond again in 30 days.

Humm, being able to retire in profits from 2007 to 2011 is great.  Of course if you listened to JC you could have done that in a year.

yeah, i know that makes me sound like someone who should be selling penny stocks; but those streettalk guys had news letters in late 2007 telling people to get out. if i wouldve been listening to them, i would have gotten out early enough to limit the damage.
of course, the ride back up was pure luck for everyone. no one has predicted this rise; but i calcualated the same rise w/ half the losses; i'd be playing golf at 9am now.

point being, i cannot recommend streetalk highly enough now. i put their opinions over both my dad and step dad when it comes to the market.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 29, 2011, 12:22:23 PM
just thought i would give you guys this chart. it shows that the rise in the S+P 500 has followed the FED's quantatative easing.

makes me woonder what the s+p would be at if the FED never did qe and what the drop might be in june when qe is over.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/Treasury%20vs%20SPY.jpg (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/Treasury%20vs%20SPY.jpg)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on January 29, 2011, 03:08:20 PM
Westcoast, yes, I know the writer has something to sell, but I also understand, in part because of my training that the fundamentals of his article are spot on.

You can argue from your armchair about when the GDP of China will overtake that of the US but for sure it will happen. Prediction is always a task done with a cloudy crystal ball but when you look at many sources you see figures ranging from as soon as 2015 out to as far as 2030 with a mean, based upon my quick look at around, of about 2020. Of course, if one were to use PPP figures then the numbers close in a lot!

In truth though it does not really matter when this happens, what really matters is the market expectation of it happening. Currency trading, like many other trades is kinda like pass the parcel, you don't want to be the one holding the parcel (US dollars) when the music stops so the incentive is to move before the market which means that everyone brings forward the expectations and the process gathers speed, just as happened with the US real estate boom and bust.

My guess is that China well understand the benefits of being the global reserve currency - export of inflation, economic control, global influence and will seek to firstly reduce the degree to which the US can benefit from the tool (they are already doing this) and secondly to remove the tool from the hands of the US.

I DO recall the ideas a few years ago of 'The Japanese Are Coming' and, of course they never did, not quite as we feared anyway, but China is a different case. IMHO the Japanese did not want to rule the world, they just wanted to be able to go and play golf in it, an ambition fully achieved!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on January 29, 2011, 05:31:36 PM
Westcoast, yes, I know the writer has something to sell, but I also understand, in part because of my training that the fundamentals of his article are spot on.

You can argue from your armchair about when the GDP of China will overtake that of the US but for sure it will happen. Prediction is always a task done with a cloudy crystal ball but when you look at many sources you see figures ranging from as soon as 2015 out to as far as 2030 with a mean, based upon my quick look at around, of about 2020. Of course, if one were to use PPP figures then the numbers close in a lot!

In truth though it does not really matter when this happens, what really matters is the market expectation of it happening. Currency trading, like many other trades is kinda like pass the parcel, you don't want to be the one holding the parcel (US dollars) when the music stops so the incentive is to move before the market which means that everyone brings forward the expectations and the process gathers speed, just as happened with the US real estate boom and bust.

My guess is that China well understand the benefits of being the global reserve currency - export of inflation, economic control, global influence and will seek to firstly reduce the degree to which the US can benefit from the tool (they are already doing this) and secondly to remove the tool from the hands of the US.

I DO recall the ideas a few years ago of 'The Japanese Are Coming' and, of course they never did, not quite as we feared anyway, but China is a different case. IMHO the Japanese did not want to rule the world, they just wanted to be able to go and play golf in it, an ambition fully achieved!

Andrew, your training in what?  In economics or finance, both doubtful.  Why do I say this, because nobody with extensive education, training and real world work experience in either disciple would say, as you stated "the GDP of China will overtake that of the US but for sure it will happen".  True, using PPP figures there are possibilities of earlier dates for the Chinese economy to overtake that of the US, with 2020 being a common date.  However, when GDP figures are used the date is usually pushed back to somewhere around 2030 at the earliest, with later dates being more likely and the very real possibility of it not happening at all becoming even more likely. 

Despite what the MM report about China becoming the dominant world economy this is far from a given fact.  China is a corrupt country at all levels of power, not nearly as corrupt as Russia or Ukraine, but far more corrupt than Europe or North America.  China's one child policy will become more important as more Chinese men are ready to marry and unable to find a wife because of the shortage of women in China.  The scenario of tens of millions of young Chinese men with no hope of a future with a wife and child is something that could spark labour unrest and economic chaos. 

As a low wage country's currency and economy mature the traditional route to continued economic growth is to start to manufacture increasingly more upmarket goods. This is what happened in the USA, Japan and Korea as their economies matured.  However China is going to face very stiff competition from not only the USA, but also its Asian neighbours, Japan and Korea for that market.  In addition to increased competition for the manufacture of upmarket goods, a skilled and educated labour force is needed for increasing complex and technical manufacturing, something China lacks. 

China still relies on a mostly peasant workforce, literally recruited off the farm to work in the many manufacturing plants that dot the Chinese SEZs on the coast of China.  Chinese manufacturing companies have tried to compensate for their employees lack of formal education by running in-house academic and vocational training courses but these courses are no match for a formal academic education. 

India is a very real competitor to China for the title of world's largest economy, by any measure.  India has a population that is expected to pass China's in size within the next two decades.  India's workforce is far younger and better educated.  Any stumble by China over the next decade or so and India will replace it as the number two economy and heir apparent to the world's largest economy which like all things in life is far from certain.         
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 29, 2011, 09:14:12 PM
Quote
Andrew, your training in what?  In economics or finance, both doubtful. 

Westy, And who are you to make that judgement call? Some BA degree is Keynesian economics?
Can we grow up a little and apply the principle of "the rational sequence" (aka basing your arguments on REASON and EVIDENCE).

Now if you think Andrew has somehow made a logic error please point that out, instead of turning it into some pissing contest about education (typical leftist trait) , because in the latter case you will surely loose.

Quote
Why do I say this, because nobody with extensive education, training and real world work experience in either disciple would say, as you stated "the GDP of China will overtake that of the US but for sure it will happen".

Well the US can always go for a first strike nuclear option, taking out Beijing and the seat of government. When that happens all bets are off,...

So let me translate this into "Jack and Jill speak" ->"if all things remain equal it will happen"


 
Quote
with later dates being more likely and the very real possibility of it not happening at all becoming even more likely. 

Ah, the leftist kneejerk of "kicking the can down the road" instead of solving problems!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 30, 2011, 05:24:33 AM
If I had a dollar for every "for sure it will happen" thing that ended up not happening I could buy and sell The Donald.  I can remember when it was a for sure it will happen that Japan would pass us up.  I can remember when it was for sure it will happen enough thing that Dewey would win as President that the newspaper headlines announced his victory.   Gold guru's had for sure it will happen things for the last umpteen years that suckers bought into that haven't happened yet.

I will agree that if China keep growing at it's current rate and the USA keeps growing at the rate it is they will pass us. I don't agree that is a sure thing however.  I also don't agree it is a sure thing that the economy will colapse throwing us into chaos and only those with gold will thrive.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 30, 2011, 06:41:50 AM
Quote
I don't agree that is a sure thing however.
Red Herring:Chinese can  :censored:  up too, so both countries can end up at the bottom of the food chain,  I

Quote
also don't agree it is a sure thing that the economy will colapse throwing us into chaos and only those with gold will thrive.

You have a talent for misreading and annotating reality.

It is not a sure thing that my yacht in Nice will sink anytime soon, but..... I do have insurance.

Especially if there is tornado comming!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on January 30, 2011, 07:08:49 AM
I also don't agree it is a sure thing that the economy will colapse throwing us into chaos and only those with gold will thrive.
True, Ray. People who have enough silver, platinum and real estate that is paid for will also do OK IMO. So gold is not the only commodity to help us survive a crisis. The right type of education/profession is another one. not to be ignored.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 30, 2011, 09:43:44 AM
It is a sure thing that my yacht won't sink JC.  I guess there really are some sure things.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 30, 2011, 10:39:34 AM
JC, your yacht is probably at extra risk because of all the extra weigh of the gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on January 30, 2011, 10:44:42 AM
It is a sure thing that my yacht won't sink JC.  I guess there really are some sure things.

True, real boats sink, 2 by 4's keep floating!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 31, 2011, 06:05:01 AM
I also don't agree it is a sure thing that the economy will colapse throwing us into chaos and only those with gold will thrive.
True, Ray. People who have enough silver, platinum and real estate that is paid for will also do OK IMO. So gold is not the only commodity to help us survive a crisis. The right type of education/profession is another one. not to be ignored.

Good point Eduard.  I have a feeling that a sack of potato's might have some pretty good value as well.  When I say it is not "a sure thing" that the economy will collapse that is exactly what I mean.   It also not a sure thing it won't collapse.  Personally I have seen the country pull itself out of so many delemas I am not losing any sleep or stockpiling any gold.  I do think it is facing some of the more difficult challenges while at the same time it has the worst leadership to guide us through it.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on January 31, 2011, 07:34:48 AM
I also don't agree it is a sure thing that the economy will colapse throwing us into chaos and only those with gold will thrive.
True, Ray. People who have enough silver, platinum and real estate that is paid for will also do OK IMO. So gold is not the only commodity to help us survive a crisis. The right type of education/profession is another one. not to be ignored.
I do think it is facing some of the more difficult challenges while at the same time it has the worst leadership to guide us through it.
Let's pray that we, as people, can change that in 2012 and that it's not too late by then...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 08, 2011, 01:28:04 PM
Quote
  You commented that you had bought gold at 860 US dollars.  When I commented that gold was well over that price when you said you bought it then all of a sudden you decided that you had bought them in Euros. 

Calling me a liar? That wasnt you but Kievstar, getting se  :censored:l at old age I see, I posted 680  instead of  860, Kievstar thought he cought me on a lie,  (like It was a total coincidence gold was 680 in feb/march 2008, LOL) 

And yes I did double my money (as was my argument) classic 3 step, 1 euro = 1.6 usd (mar 2008) aka bought gold at at 540 somewhat euros, the beauty of it all was that the USD rised against the euro, but gold was immune to that... Classic "park my wealth strategy".

Maybe you can wait a couple of postings and try selling lies again, maybe it will work this time

(Still parking btw)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 08, 2011, 07:52:21 PM
JC, I didn't call you a liar.  If i wanted to call you a liar I would have said " JC you are a liar!"  I didn't say that.  I think you believe what you say which means you are not a liar.  Just what you say changes all the time.

Personally I don't know what to think of you JC.  Every time you post the price you paid seems to change.  Now it isn't $ 860 or $ 680 it's $ 540.00.   The first time you said you meant to say Euros but typed dollars.  Now you say you reversed the numbers that time and that since it was Euros it was now $ 540.00  That was how you explained the $ 680 the last time.   It's OK with me if you tell me next that those numbers were transposed and you meant to type $ 450.00 and that you were in Japan at the time and really bought them in Yen and when you convert that to Euros and then to Dollars you paid $ 320, but that was a transposition so it should have been $ 230  Then another time you posted that this thread started when gold was at a price which it wasn't.   Heck, JC, the only gold I own was bought when gold was $ 35.00 an ounce.   

The thread is here JC.  It hasn't been deleted or edited so go back and read your own posts and see if the numbers don't change every time you post them.

Frankly JC, I hope everyone here who owns gold gets rich on it.   It's fine with me if gold goes to $ 10,000 an ounce with the exception that if it does I may not like what has happened to the economy to make that happen.   I just have a little more faith in what little is left of the free economy system we have here and still have hopes that financial colapse is not just around the corner.  I think it is prudent to keep some money in gold even though I chose not to.  I think Maxx does it the best way.

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 08, 2011, 07:53:34 PM
A Technical and Fundamental Dismissal of the “Burst Gold Bubble”
Eric Roseman (February 2, 2011)

- Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada

It seems to happen without fail: every time gold makes a corrective move to the downside, the critics and talking heads start yammering on about how the ‘gold bubble’ has burst. And every time they do, I feel I must pull out the gold chart and demonstrate how these arguments are nothing if not ludicrous.

The above is a weekly chart of gold. We can see that the price channel from 2005 (which, I might add, is even steeper than its longer-term trend line dating back to 2001) is still very much intact. So, even if the short-term trend line, which I highlighted in green, breaks, there is still solid support below. A significant break to the downside seems unlikely, however, as the MACD remains well above the zero line and the +DI has yet to give a sell signal by crossing below the -DI line. The stochastic too suggests that we are approaching the oversold level. As you can see, when the stochastic does make a rare fall below the 20 line, it neither gets very far nor does it stay there for long.

But don’t take my technical word for it – how about some fundamental analysis from a true guru, John Embry.

For those who are not familiar with him, John Embry is the Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management in Canada. He manages the very successful Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund and is widely considered an industry expert when it comes to precious metal, and especially the gold sector. His views have become so popular, in fact, that he had to stop providing stock picks during the various interviews he was doing for a Canadian business television program. It seemed as soon as he would mention the name of a company he liked during the interview its stock would instantly soar and inflate in price. So, it would go without saying, that when John Embry speaks, one should listen.

In a recent edition of Investor’s Digest of Canada, Mr. Embry addressed the misguided concept of a bubble existing for both gold and silver:

Gold and silver are constants. Their Current appreciation relates primarily to the debasement of the currencies in which they are quoted, a debasement incidentally which is rapidly accelerating.

Thus the idea they are in a bubble is beyond preposterous unless one honestly believes that the authorities can and will rein in the pace of money creation throughout the world. The simple truth is that they can’t in our debt-logged universe unless they are prepared to accept a deflationary crash that will make the 1930′s look like child’s play.

In addressing the topic of the recent correction in gold prices, Mr. Embry suggest that the low for gold we shall see in this correction will be the lowest gold will go for 2011, “and thus it is essential that investors take advantage of this opportunity.” I, for one, will be taking Mr. Embry’s advice. As soon as I see the technical indicator firming up, I too will “take advantage of this opportunity.”


[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on February 08, 2011, 10:22:51 PM
Cufflinks, I haz been saying this for yonks. Maybe somebody should pay me loads of money for this stuff. ;)

Undoubtedly there are arbitrage opportunities on both the upswing and down again and, I am sure JC is not the only European to have benefited but in truth that is a currency thing not a metals thing.

In the end though, we will always need some form of currency because even if we explicitly back it with an asset such as gold or implicitly back it with the 'value' of the entire national economy we are always going to need to be able to carry something that is a practical representation of the value. I don't see too many folks filling their cars with gas and paying with gold dust. There simply is not enough gold around to enable this to happen and in any case we end up back with debasement which is one of the reasons for having paper and metal tokens of value (currency) - it is kinda hard to debase a piece of paper. I can't cut a dollar bill into pieces to buy goods and cheat you by keeping some pieces of the dollar bill in my own pocket. ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 10, 2011, 04:15:12 PM
turbotuto
Quote
Now it isn't $ 860 or $ 680 it's $ 540.00.

540 usd? Grandpa needs glasses I think, reading comprehension?

MY QUOTE:
Quote
bought gold at at 540 somewhat euros,

aka.. EUROS!!!

Quote
Personally I don't know what to think of you JC

Try to read what i write, it should be easy, its in Anglais. Then try and THINK!

Andrewfi:
Quote
Undoubtedly there are arbitrage opportunities on both the upswing and down again and, I am sure JC is not the only European to have benefited

Someone who understands arbitrage, great!

Andrewfi:
Quote
it is kinda hard to debase a piece of paper.

No, Its real easy, 100 billion dollars for 3 eggs, to bad if you were frugal and parked your wealth in said currency.

(http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/Everyone%20Else/images/zimbabwe-100-billion-dollars.jpg)





Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 10, 2011, 04:23:16 PM
Quote
Heck, JC, the only gold I own was bought when gold was $ 35.00 an ounce.   

No, it means your money was worth something back then,...., 35 usd of your money could buy 1 ounce

Now its slightly different,....1.3k buys one ounce.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 12, 2011, 09:49:13 AM
Wow, I must be a mind reader.  I knew somehow you would get the $ 860 that became $ 680 that became $ 540 to less yet.  That in dollars should put you at just a bit over $ 400.00 and the really cool part is that you got such a wonderful buy on it since gold was selling for twice that at the time you say you bought it.

Let me change the subject here.  I used to see a lot of big bolded posts about the price of gold.  Where does everyone think the price of gold will be about a month from now.  Let's say March 15th, 2011.  Give me your guess.  Mine is $ 1290.00   Anyone for $ 2000?  Just for reference Friday, Feb 11th was $ 1,359.90
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on February 12, 2011, 10:04:13 AM
Let me change the subject here.  I used to see a lot of big bolded posts about the price of gold.  Where does everyone think the price of gold will be about a month from now.  Let's say March 15th, 2011.  Give me your guess.  Mine is $ 1290.00   Anyone for $ 2000?  Just for reference Friday, Feb 11th was $ 1,359.90

I'm thinking some significant fluctuations in both directions, maybe around +/- $30. USD and probably settle right around where it is now ($1360. +/- $5. USD) over 30 days. Longer term 60 or 90 days, it may drop into TG's area.

Brass

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 12, 2011, 10:08:52 AM
Quote
Heck, JC, the only gold I own was bought when gold was $ 35.00 an ounce.   

No, it means your money was worth something back then,...., 35 usd of your money could buy 1 ounce

Now its slightly different,....1.3k buys one ounce.

Not quite right JC.  Actually the government had regulated the price of gold and fixed it at $ 35.00 an ounce for a long time.  When they deregulated it there was a rapid increase in the price.  It was artificial.

Brass thanks for your opinion.  Perhaps we can get a few more and see who is closest in a month.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on February 12, 2011, 06:58:28 PM
I think that gold could even go down to $1200. There will be fluctuations, but personally I think that holding gold should be a long term strategy. It's basically like having your money in the bank without the money loosing it's value/buying power.
Our government is creating money out of thin air now, they are devaluing the US dollar on purpose because it makes it a lot cheaper to make payments on the debt. Until the debt and the deficit gets back to something more sane they are going to continue to devalue the dollar IMO. Therefore gold is going to keep going up in price relative to US dollar.
Just my opinion.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 13, 2011, 08:33:23 AM
Quote
Not quite right JC.  Actually the government had regulated the price of gold and fixed it at $ 35.00 an ounce

J.H.C, how revisionist can you be? The value of the DOLLAR was regulated/fixed as it was backed by GOLD!!!!  Reversing causality is the favorite tool of the Keynesian or their zealous followers.

Quote
When they deregulated it

Translation from Keynesian speak: "When the US went off the gold standard (Nixon era) and started printing like crazy"

Quote
there was a rapid increase in the price.
Printing money raises everything in price...aka inflation?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 13, 2011, 08:35:38 AM
Quote
Wow, I must be a mind reader.  I knew somehow you would get the $ 860 that became $ 680 that became $ 540 to less yet.

If 1 euro is 1.6 usd (back in 2008) then 860 usd(ounce of gold in 2008) is 540 euro.

[Mod edit: JC, let's tone down the rhetoric on the open board. You can make your point without calling TG names. - Brass]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 13, 2011, 09:17:53 AM
Is that the final answer you are going to stay with JC.  You bought it at 860 USD or $ 540.00 Euro's.   It doesn't matter to me what you paid for it or how much you have made.  I am happy to see you and everyone else make a nice return.  I would just like to see you stick with one number.

During the great depression our currency was backed by gold.  Actually silver as well.  Our currency said "Silver Certificate"  Later we went off the gold standard but gold was still fixed at $ 35.00 an ounce.  When they deregulated it in 1971 the price increased rapidly, not because of inflation but because the price of gold had been held artificially low.  There was little inflation in the 70's when it was deregulated.  Later in the 80's thanks to Jimmy Carter inflation did become a big problem and gold went as high as $ 800.00 an ounce.  I am sure some bought gold in 1980 for $ 800.00 an ounce and sold it a decade later at a big loss. 

By the way JC, you have not doubled your money.  Not until you sell it.  You currently have a paper profit near 100%.  It could easily drop in price so unitl you lock in that profit you have only a "paper" profit. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on February 13, 2011, 12:28:11 PM
Quote
You bought it at 860 USD or $ 540.00 Euro's

a "$ 540 euro"?,..., is that a new monitary unit?

 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 13, 2011, 12:38:02 PM
Yes, I guess so.  Typing the euro symbol and all the other obscure monetary symbols is a bit of a pain on a standard keyboard.   :money: :biggrin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on February 17, 2011, 09:49:43 AM
Ray, I hope you bought some silver and gold last month when it took a temporary dip down. Silver at $31.13 right now and I expect it to go to $40 by the end of this summer. Gold again is only $18 bucks away from hitting $1,400. US dollar is loosing value...time to wake up and smell the roses  tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on February 17, 2011, 10:11:15 AM
Ray, I hope you bought some silver and gold last month when it took a temporary dip down. Silver at $31.13 right now and I expect it to go to $40 by the end of this summer. Gold again is only $18 bucks away from hitting $1,400. US dollar is loosing value...time to wake up and smell the roses  tiphat

You know what's odd? Canadian gold prices, which usually almost mirror US gold prices has started to break away recently (currently sitting at $1360.86 (CAD). Silver's still real close to the US price at $30.77 (CAD) as I type this.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on February 17, 2011, 11:58:41 AM
Ray, I hope you bought some silver and gold last month when it took a temporary dip down. Silver at $31.13 right now and I expect it to go to $40 by the end of this summer. Gold again is only $18 bucks away from hitting $1,400. US dollar is loosing value...time to wake up and smell the roses  tiphat

Nope, didn't even think about buying gold.  I did buy some new stocks however and they are up 16% in a few weeks.  Actaully my whole stock portfolio is up about 30% over the past few months and 800% from the start.

Actually I have a lot of silver coins and one gold one and am starting to think this might be a good time to sell.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on February 17, 2011, 12:14:11 PM
Ray, I hope you bought some silver and gold last month when it took a temporary dip down. Silver at $31.13 right now and I expect it to go to $40 by the end of this summer. Gold again is only $18 bucks away from hitting $1,400. US dollar is loosing value...time to wake up and smell the roses  tiphat

You know what's odd? Canadian gold prices, which usually almost mirror US gold prices has started to break away recently (currently sitting at $1360.86 (CAD). Silver's still real close to the US price at $30.77 (CAD) as I type this.

Brass
I thought that gold price is the same for every country, it's like world standart set by the markets? It could vary in relation to each individual country's currency though, not because gold price varies but because country's currencies go up or down.
I'm not an expert in this so I might be wrong. But the reason for what you are describing, Brass, might be that Canadian dollar is fluctuating differently from US dollar?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on February 17, 2011, 02:12:34 PM
I thought that gold price is the same for every country, it's like world standart set by the markets? It could vary in relation to each individual country's currency though, not because gold price varies but because country's currencies go up or down.
I'm not an expert in this so I might be wrong. But the reason for what you are describing, Brass, might be that Canadian dollar is fluctuating differently from US dollar?

Yep, I just did a currency conversion. It is the exchange rate... :-[  1.5 cents adds up quick if you're not paying attention. :chuckle:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 20, 2011, 07:26:25 PM
Motley Fool investments Global Gains crew on an OZ fest tour and low and behold GOLD etc... General trip Theme is if you want to invest in the China boom - buy OZ!

Get In On the Gold Rush, Plus a Bonus Idea for Your Watch List

When it's all said and done, this visit to Australia will have been Motley Fool Global Gains' busiest research trip ever. So it was inevitable that Nathan Parmelee, Nate "The Snake" Weisshaar, and I had to split up to fit five business meetings in five parts of Melbourne all into one working day.

But the confusion and cab fares were worth it. All of the meetings were impressive, and we have a great head start on our special report -- which will include our top pick from Australia -- that will conclude this trip. Although we still have to vet some of the companies we met with, we've already learned two investing insights well worth sharing.

Insight No. 1:
Nobody Knows What Gold Prices Are Going to Do

Up until now, we at Global Gains have missed out on the bull market in gold. That's disappointing because we anticipated the weak dollar, we called surging commodity prices, and we have plenty of models for valuing oil companies that we could easily have modified to value a gold miner. Our problem was that we had no confidence in our ability to forecast the price of gold, so we sat on the sidelines as gold ran up to $1,000, then $1,200, and now $1,400 per ounce.

But rather then feel stupid after meeting with Australia's largest gold miner, I feel pretty good about myself. That's because the company has no idea what gold prices are going to do, either. And that's not just a talking point. Thanks to a nearly debt-free balance sheet, this mining company doesn't even hedge the value of its gold reserves!

What it does well, however, is focus on what it can control: its costs. The company's relentless focus on efficiency, its politically benign collection of assets, and its copper reserves that help offset production costs allow it to dig gold out of the ground for less than $400 per ounce. And at that price, you don't need to know much about gold to see that the company stands to make good money for a long time.

In the past, we'd been stuck on gold because we didn't know what it's worth or what it could be used for. But as we learn more about this low-cost miner, we're starting to believe that a little gold exposure might be just what the doctor ordered.

Insight No. 2:
Foster's Wine Business Could Become a Special Opportunity

The Australian business press is abuzz over Foster's Group (Pink Sheets: FBRWY.PK), the company you know as "Australian for beer." Its recent operating results were horrible, and management has decided to split up the beer and wine businesses. And although the beer business is getting all of the media attention and is rumored to be an attractive acquisition target for the likes of SABMiller (Pink Sheets: SBMRY.PK) or Heineken (Pink Sheets: HINKY.PK), our meeting with the company here in Melbourne led us to believe that the smaller wine business might turn out to be the gem.

Why wine? First, it has a huge market opportunity in Asia, where the Chinese are just starting to become oenophiles. Second, the spin-off will leave the wine business with $60 million in cash and no debt (with Foster's previously onerous debt load being the booby prize for whoever acquires the beer business). And third, the mechanics of the split have us thinking that the wine shares might sell off hard once they start trading, creating a buying opportunity for savvy investors. The reason is that Foster's shareholders will get just one share of the wine business for every three shares of Foster's they own, which makes it likely that the big institutions that own Foster's stock will just sell their tiny stakes in the wine business rather than deal with the hassle of holding them. This is a well-known phenomenon in special-situation investing, and it's one that investors such as Joel Greenblatt have been happy to cash in on over and over again.
But don't go out and buy Foster's just yet. As of our meeting, the company had not yet decided whether U.S. shareholders would get shares of the wine business or an equal amount of cash instead. Because Foster's wine business is what we want, put this idea on your watch list and wait for the corporate action to go through. If the wine business' stock drops soon after it goes on the market, that would be the time to pounce.

Coming Up

Tomorrow we leave for Brisbane and another hectic day of meetings, including with two of Australia's fastest-growing mining-services companies. Stay tuned for more dispatches, and keep checking our Facebook page for all of our photos and videos in real time.

Tim Hanson

Tim Hanson is co-advisor of Motley Fool Global Gains.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 05, 2011, 03:02:48 PM
GOLD at 1420!

LOOOL

to the Keynesians,.., bend over,.., the fed wants another servicing!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 05, 2011, 06:09:48 PM
silver is over $35 an ounce...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on March 13, 2011, 11:51:37 AM
Let me change the subject here.  I used to see a lot of big bolded posts about the price of gold.  Where does everyone think the price of gold will be about a month from now.  Let's say March 15th, 2011.  Give me your guess.  Mine is $ 1290.00   Anyone for $ 2000?  Just for reference Friday, Feb 11th was $ 1,359.90

I'm thinking some significant fluctuations in both directions, maybe around +/- $30. USD and probably settle right around where it is now ($1360. +/- $5. USD) over 30 days. Longer term 60 or 90 days, it may drop into TG's area.

Gold $1416.93 (USD) - Market closed.  Well, that's my prediction out the window...How you makin' out TG? ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 13, 2011, 11:56:39 AM
We can send over some soupkitchens))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 14, 2011, 07:43:59 AM
Let me change the subject here.  I used to see a lot of big bolded posts about the price of gold.  Where does everyone think the price of gold will be about a month from now.  Let's say March 15th, 2011.  Give me your guess.  Mine is $ 1290.00   Anyone for $ 2000?  Just for reference Friday, Feb 11th was $ 1,359.90

I'm thinking some significant fluctuations in both directions, maybe around +/- $30. USD and probably settle right around where it is now ($1360. +/- $5. USD) over 30 days. Longer term 60 or 90 days, it may drop into TG's area.

Gold $1416.93 (USD) - Market closed.  Well, that's my prediction out the window...How you makin' out TG? ;D

Brass

I missed by a country mile Brass.  Of course something like the unrest in the Middle East is a little difficult to predict and that was one big factor in the rise in gold prices.   I came across an interesting article in "Money" magazine about gold and will try to remember to grab that copy when I go home for lunch and give a few quotes.   I could do a few off the top of my head but want to be accurate.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 14, 2011, 11:04:26 AM
Here are a few comments from an article in Money Magazines Jan-Feb edition called their Investors Guide.  Any quotes are theirs and underlines are mine.

The title is "Resist the Charms of Gold" by Janice Revell"

"Gold is trading at $ 1410 an ounce, up from less then $ 500.00  five years ago.  That's a 23% annualized return, far outstripping the gains on stocks (1.1%) or bonds (6.1%).  Fear is driving a lot of the rise......
You may be wondering if you should be getting a piece of this action.  This time last year MONEY argued that although gold prices could continue to climb in the short run, the case for gold as an investment no longer makes sense.  And that leads to another truth about bubbles.  You almost never look smart trying to call them, at least at the outset.  Thereal estate bubble was six years in the making; the dotcom bubble lasted five years before bursting.  The gold bubble could stay pumped up for a while.  But that doesn't make gold less speculative and risky than it was a year ago.  Three solid reasons to be wary of gold.

1. Bad economic news may not earn you much and good news could crush you (Note from TG, You are seeing this now with gold only moving up a little with the problems in Japan)   .... Right now though, there's no sign that inflation is about to rear it's head anytime soon.......  If the economy turns back to real health, watch out.  From 1980 through 2005 gold earned zilch.  In fact had you bought gold in 1980 you still wouldn't be back to even today on an inflation adjusted basis. 

2.  Sure the Dollar has its problems -  but just look at the other guys. Related to fears of inflation is the bet that the U.S. dollar is about to tank .... Reports of the death of the dollar have been greatly exaggerated..... If you think the dollar is going to tank against other currencies,  a better way to play it is to skip gold and own mutual funds that invest overseas.

3.  The Gold Boom has the earmarks of a speculators' rally.   Scientists sometimes call a bad idea "not even wrong" meaning that it's so groundless it can't even be tested.   Unlike a bond, gold doesn't promise to pay you back with interest" unlike a stock, it doesn't have any hope of generating earnings over time.  If gold were a house, it would be one you couldn't live in or collect rent from.  Unless you want to flash some bling, buying gold today is just a bet that someone else will want to pay you more for it tomorrow.  That is why even advocates of diversified portfolios, like Vanguard founder Jack Bogle often rule out gold investing as speculation. 

The "GREATER FOOL THEORY" is not a convincing argument for buying gold says adviser Bernstein author of "The investors Manifesto"
This actually makes the argument that gold is a bubble a little tricky.  Since it produces no earnings in the first place you can't say golds' price/earnings ratio is too high to justify the risk.  But you can tease out some indicators that demand for gold is overinflated right now. 

Continued on next post
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 14, 2011, 11:39:20 AM
Continued

Meir Statmen, finance professor of Santa Clara University and author of What Investors Really Want points out that investors buy assest for "expressive" and emotional as well as economic benefits.  ......It gives you the opportunity to convey to others that you're a "player" like the hedge fund managers......

Gold fan's often lean hard on history.  Although gold may have hit new highs in nominal terms, the bulls note that it hasn't come close to hitting its peak price after accounting for inflation.  Figure that into the 1980 high of $ 850 and you get a price of around $ 2300 an ounce. some 63% higher than where gold is trading today.  But that is just the greater fool theory dressed up with the harts.  If people paid $ 2300.00 an ounce once, maybe they'll repeat that mistake.  Well, in 2000 investors were willing to pay 45 times earnings for stocks.  Want to bet they'll do that again?

Gold in times of financial stability is hazardous to investor health.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There was a chart in the article showing where the demand comes from. 

In 2005 16% of the gold produced was purchased by investors speculators.

In 2009 39% of all gold produced was purchased by speculators.

(What happens when gold starts to go down and speculators start selling their gold.  They have a lot to sell that will really drive the price down fast.  )

There was another chart showing that in 2001 6% of the Florida mortgages were to investors.  In 2005 it was 14%.  (almost the same ratio as gold) 

I liked the part that gold is like buying a house you can't live in or rent.  I read another recently that buying gold was like buying a stock that can never produce earnings or pay a dividend.  You are just hoping that in the future there will be a "greater fool" willing to pay more for the gold you have.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 14, 2011, 11:59:18 AM
Quote
I missed by a country mile Brass.  Of course something like the unrest in the Middle East is a little difficult to predict and that was one big factor in the rise in gold prices.

Still delirious about the real causes of the rise of gold, and its not a bunch of raggheads shooting at each other,

Fed prints money (out of thin air)=> result=> dollar looses worth

A current dollar buys 3cts of what a 1910 dollar would buy,...., you can call it many things, .., but printing money doesnt work, and never will work!

Lets hear your next excuse Tubro when gold hits then next barrier......1500,...and the next...1600...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 14, 2011, 12:43:25 PM
JC, I think most anyone except you would find little to disagree with about the fact that gold tends to rise when people are worried about things and to do down when peoples fears are calmed. 

Also "most" would not disagree with the fact that supply and demand have an effect on price.  The fact that more gold is going into the hands of investors has helped move the price up.  If prices start to fall some people might actually want to sell some or all of their gold while it is still high and before it loses a lot of it's value.   With as much gold as is now going into speculators safes when they do start selling it can drastically lower the price of gold even more. 

Will gold go to $ 1500, $ 1600 or more?  I have no doubts that if fighting in the middle east escalates and turns into mini wars and the trouble in the oil producting countries causes gas to go to $ 7.50 a gallon, that gold may well go way up yet.  If however the middle east settles down, the economy picks up steam, unemployment goes down and the improving economy coupled with some spending cuts starts making the deficit less of an issue then just maybe gold might drop back into three digit numbers, perhaps even mid three figures.   Gold at the current price is risky and the odds of making money over the long haul are not good.  Still there are enough potential problems in the world no one, not even the great JC can positively forcast anything regarding the price of gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 14, 2011, 04:18:18 PM
Quote
JC, I think most anyone except you would find little to disagree with about the fact that gold tends to rise when people are worried about things and to do down when peoples fears are calmed.

No shit sherlock,...,if your currency is debased by money printing, then people tend to put their weath in an asset thats not easily created out of thin air,...gold, silver, coal, oil, and a myriad of non perishable goods..

Quote
Still there are enough potential problems in the world no one, not even the great JC can positively forcast anything regarding the price of gold.

Stop blaming others for your own monetary  :censored: ups, Allen GreenSpan (and I quote him AGAIN!!!) states:

"Fiat money has nowhere else to go but gold"

Wow, so he is the same kind of idiot as me,..., thanks for the honer badge!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 15, 2011, 07:41:13 AM
"Fiat money has nowhere else to go but gold"

Wow, so he is the same kind of idiot as me,..., thanks for the honer badge!

I never said he was the same kind of idiot as you.  For his part,  I don't even think he is an idiot.  Actually I think he was better than his successor.

I had never paid much attention to what he said about gold.  After reading your post I did Google a bit and skimmed through his comments.  No where that I saw did he suggest speculators buy gold at the peak of the bubble.  Actually he tended to controdict himself.  In some places he sort of hints that countries should go on the gold standard and then in other places he says he is not suggesting that and that it would be very difficult and complicated. 

I will say that most infomercials and advertisments selling gold do recommend buying gold.  It does seem like most of the independent financial managers don't or at best suggest keeping a very small (1%) or so of your investments in gold.

Persoanlly for someone like you who bought gold at $ 900.00   $ 750.00.  $ 600.00,  $450.00 $ 300.00   It may have been a good investment.  I just personally think we are in a bubble and those that add gold now may get hurt. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 15, 2011, 11:22:09 AM
Well this is unexpected - worst Nuclear Nightmare in Japan sice Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Gold goes DOWN on massive selling of all commodities...

Japan's deepening nuclear crisis, triggered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, sent shock waves across the commodities market on Tuesday with prices of crude oil, gold, silver, copper and coffee crashing.

Other commodities such as rubber, crude palm oil also dropped, though some recouped their losses towards the end of the day.

A broad sell-off was seen across all commodities as investors and funds chose to cash in or book profits. A rising dollar contributed to the chaos in the market as commodities that are traded in the greenback began to lose value.

Gold savings
“Japanese need cash to rebuild. Most of their savings are significantly in gold. As they cashed for their needs, others too began to sell,” said an analyst. That dragged gold down $44 to $1,388.68 an ounce, while silver slid to $33.85 an ounce. Crude oil declined to $97.87 a barrel from $101.19 on Monday.

Copper led base metals lower, slipping to $9,016 a tonne, with aluminium, tin, lead and zinc in tow. The selloff was triggered by fears that Japan's worst earthquake and nuclear crisis could curb demand for raw materials.

The devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami has forced Japan to shut refineries and smelters. With the country facing power shortage, car manufacturers such as Nissan, Honda and Toyota shut their plants in the northern part.

A third blast that occurred on Tuesday at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant and the Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Naoto Kan's statement that the risk of further radiation leaks was rising aided the bearish trend further.

Agri-commodities
Agriculture commodities, too, dropped. As regards India, events in Japan have brought down natural rubber prices to Rs 187 a kg in Kottayam from around Rs 220 last week. Soyameal prices have dropped to Rs 18,000-18,100 a tonne from Rs 18,500-18,600.

Robusta coffee prices in London slipped to $2,380 a tonne from $2,528 before the earthquake.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 15, 2011, 12:00:49 PM
Well this is unexpected - worst Nuclear Nightmare in Japan sice Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Gold goes DOWN on massive selling of all commodities...


As I posted yesterday that is likely a sign that the bubble may be getting ready to burst. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 15, 2011, 01:47:56 PM
Yup, and after Japans starts rebuilding its infrastructre after the quake, what do you think will happen to the price of raw materials and the oil needed to transport them?

Yeah,.., thinking ahead for Keynesians seems to be difficult.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 15, 2011, 02:03:15 PM
Yup, and after Japans starts rebuilding its infrastructre after the quake, what do you think will happen to the price of raw materials and the oil needed to transport them?

Yeah,.., thinking ahead for Keynesians seems to be difficult.

Are you saying that no one will trust the Yen and they will have to pay in Gold?  Japan is a rather small country and the oil will be partially offset by the fact gasoline is in short supply and people can't travel.  I doubt the raw materials and oil will be affected that much.  The thing that may have more effect is that a lot of the steel is manufactured in Japan and that will be interupted, car production will be affected as will TV production but it doesn't seem to be doing anything to move up the price of gold which makes me still feel we are near the top of the bubble.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on March 15, 2011, 02:17:49 PM
Well this is unexpected - worst Nuclear Nightmare in Japan sice Hiroshima and Nagasaki and Gold goes DOWN on massive selling of all commodities...


not really. all commodities and equities have gone up at record levels mostly by artificial stimulation. when this correction came, no one was safe.

luckily, the FED has scheduled to put even more money into the market over the next 3 months than they did the past 3 months; so once this correction is over; should be a ride back up until june and quantative easing 2 is done.

and i'm feeling about the luckiest sob on the planet last  as week i pulled everything out except my 401k. i didnt get hit by most of this, but i still got slapped around in 2007/2008; so i'm no expert.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 15, 2011, 02:28:26 PM
Quote
Are you saying that no one will trust the Yen and they will have to pay in Gold?

your brain works kinda funny , reading your conclusions about my supposed intent.

Quote
  Japan is a rather small country

Really,.., I thought it was an economic giant....[edit: Ease up JC. Brass]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 16, 2011, 03:45:06 AM
your brain works kinda funny , reading your conclusions about my supposed intent.

Quote
  Japan is a rather small country

Really,.., I thought it was an economic giant....[edit: Ease up JC. Brass]

My brain definately works different than yours does JC. 

The events in Japan are really tragic and I am sure everyone feels for those who suffered.  Geographically they are a small country, Economically they hold a lot of power.  As far as financially and logistically they are probably better prepared to handle the situation then many poorer countries might be but disruptions and adjustments lie ahead.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 16, 2011, 03:52:10 AM
Quote from: leeholsen link=topic=10517.msg197275#msg197275
and i'm feeling about the luckiest sob on the planet last  as week i pulled everything out except my 401k. i didnt get hit by most of this, but i still got slapped around in 2007/2008; so i'm no expert.

That was either a smart move or a lucky move or both.  I do think we are going to see some market corrections in the short term but nothing like 2008.  The basics in the economy are too good for that.  I didn't pull anything out but was planning to put some in and have that cash sitting on the sidelines for now.   2008 didn't really hurt me any, other than very short term and actually was a very big help since I was fairly heavy in cash and bought right at the market bottom.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 16, 2011, 06:13:10 AM
There is an interesting article on Yahoo Financial about gold today.  The title is "Sell first, ask questions later"

Here is the summary at the end of the article.

Unfortunately for gold, bullish sentiment has pulled back only slightly from those overheated levels. This suggests to contrarians that more downside action may be needed to wring enthusiasm out of the gold traders.
Only then can we expect gold to begin responding more straightforwardly to the fundamentals.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 17, 2011, 12:10:46 PM
I can only refer back to this article I posted previously:

http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,10517.msg194482.html#msg194482

A Technical and Fundamental Dismissal of the “Burst Gold Bubble”
Eric Roseman (February 2, 2011)

- Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada

It seems to happen without fail: every time gold makes a corrective move to the downside, the critics and talking heads start yammering on about how the ‘gold bubble’ has burst. And every time they do, I feel I must pull out the gold chart and demonstrate how these arguments are nothing if not ludicrous.

The above is a weekly chart of gold. We can see that the price channel from 2005 (which, I might add, is even steeper than its longer-term trend line dating back to 2001) is still very much intact. So, even if the short-term trend line, which I highlighted in green, breaks, there is still solid support below. A significant break to the downside seems unlikely, however, as the MACD remains well above the zero line and the +DI has yet to give a sell signal by crossing below the -DI line. The stochastic too suggests that we are approaching the oversold level. As you can see, when the stochastic does make a rare fall below the 20 line, it neither gets very far nor does it stay there for long.

But don’t take my technical word for it – how about some fundamental analysis from a true guru, John Embry.

For those who are not familiar with him, John Embry is the Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management in Canada. He manages the very successful Sprott Gold & Precious Minerals Fund and is widely considered an industry expert when it comes to precious metal, and especially the gold sector. His views have become so popular, in fact, that he had to stop providing stock picks during the various interviews he was doing for a Canadian business television program. It seemed as soon as he would mention the name of a company he liked during the interview its stock would instantly soar and inflate in price. So, it would go without saying, that when John Embry speaks, one should listen.

In a recent edition of Investor’s Digest of Canada, Mr. Embry addressed the misguided concept of a bubble existing for both gold and silver:

Gold and silver are constants. Their Current appreciation relates primarily to the debasement of the currencies in which they are quoted, a debasement incidentally which is rapidly accelerating.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 17, 2011, 10:21:58 PM

Gold and silver are constants. Their Current appreciation relates primarily to the debasement of the currencies in which they are quoted, a debasement incidentally which is rapidly accelerating.[/b]
this is the concept that so many people can't grasp for some reason. Most of them will start getting into gold and silver just when it's time to get out. When you see lines forming at coin stores, that's the time to sell!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 18, 2011, 03:25:13 AM
I will say that most infomercials and advertisments selling gold do recommend buying gold.   It does seem like most of the independent financial managers don't or at best suggest keeping a very small (1%) or so of your investments in gold.

I A Technical and Fundamental Dismissal of the “Burst Gold Bubble”
Eric Roseman (February 2, 2011)

- Dugald Malcolm, Montreal, Canada

But don’t take my technical word for it – how about some fundamental analysis from a true guru, John Embry.

Aren't those the guys that do the infomercials selling gold?

Gold and silver are constants.

Cufflinks, I hate to break the news to you but there is nothing constant about gold and silver.  Anything that can be infunced but current events and the emotions of people is not constant.

 
Quote from: Eduard

this is the concept that so many people can't grasp for some reason. Most of them will start getting into gold and silver just when it's time to get out. When you see lines forming at coin stores, that's the time to sell!
Good point Eduard.  I have always been amazed at investor psychology.  You heaar everyone say buy low and sell high and yet in practice that scares people to death and they are drawn to do the opposite.  Buying high and selling low just doesn't make sense to me.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 18, 2011, 03:30:30 AM
The above is a weekly chart of gold. We can see that the price channel from 2005 (which, I might add, is even steeper than its longer-term trend line dating back to 2001) is still very much intact.

I have a feeling that a chart of home prices done in 2007 would have looked much the same as the gold chart you posted and probably the home price chart could be extended a few more decades than you can do with gold.   A gold chart going back to about '75 should look much different when you include the last gold bubble before the current one.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 19, 2011, 12:13:44 PM
The above is a weekly chart of gold. We can see that the price channel from 2005 (which, I might add, is even steeper than its longer-term trend line dating back to 2001) is still very much intact.

I have a feeling that a chart of home prices done in 2007 would have looked much the same as the gold chart you posted and probably the home price chart could be extended a few more decades than you can do with gold.   A gold chart going back to about '75 should look much different when you include the last gold bubble before the current one.

TG - not trying to be argumentative but the Real Estate bubble was caused by a flood of cheap cash and liberal 120% Loan to Value mortgages underwritten with risk transfer by a flood of unregulated CDSs and CDOs that inflated home prices and now that those liberal lending policies are over and cash tight again home values have plummeted - one might think the same will happen with Gold and Silver etc but the irony is just the opposite as the FED printing presses and virtual money machines (QE1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ad nauseum) as the good professor states - gold and silver outside of traditional industrial and jewelry demand are the only real money and their relative value is a constant - Price of an ounce of gold to silver - to barrel of oil to the S&P, to ounces of gold to buy the average suit, home, car, horse, mule team etc...  are constant over time and the inflated price in fiat currency is the only true measure of how badly the Fed and Treasury mis-manage hyperinflation inflation in a misguided attempt to get the Chinese to decouple and let their Yuan float (read rise) against the Dollar - yes a falling dollar in theory helps exports but with 55,000 of our manufacturing companies shipped to Asia/China/Vietnam/Malaysia/Phillipines etc etc - all that is being achieved now is bankrupting the US middle class with skyrocketing food, fuel and goods prices. 

Not much of a recipe for economic recovery let alone prosperity and it is likely to have a direct effect to Obamsters reelection prospects now.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 19, 2011, 12:29:36 PM
TG, doesnt want to understand the fundamentals that drive economic reality, its more like voodoo to him, or something to do with "consumer confidence" LOOOL

Anyway...lets stick to the facts,...,  should "Alt's" be unravelling by now?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 19, 2011, 12:36:43 PM
TG, doesnt want to understand the fundamentals that drive economic reality, its more like voodoo to him, or something to do with "consumer confidence" LOOOL

Anyway...lets stick to the facts,...,  should "Alt's" be unravelling by now?

LOL Yes all $1.5 Trillion in Alts and Option Arms now resetting with who knows how much in CDS and CDOs swirling around them - real reason why Fed holding interest rates near zero for the next two years as Mortgage loan modifications a fantasy - Dean Grazsiosi - national real estate investor celebrity - now doing saturation TV commercials and live seminars in Metro Boston and the rest of the country now that the market has "bottomed" on how to find steals - so if that is any indication....[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 19, 2011, 01:25:17 PM
Wow, that huge wavefront,

Thats a tsunami if I ever saw one!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 19, 2011, 07:57:53 PM
Wow, that huge wavefront,

Thats a tsunami if I ever saw one!!!

Now you know why Bernanke's nut bag is up around his Adams apple for the next couple of years  :snivel: :duh: >:(

What you saw on TV in Fukushima - is also happening in the US economy right now!  Recovery just temporary QE12345... smoke and mirrors for Obamsters 2012 re-election bid - now that he is bombing Libya he can claim he is strong on defense too boot.  Does not look like the fed will pull back on the printing presses and virtual QE money machines throttles any time soon - balanced budgets now a permanent fantasy - so Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either - you need Prosperity, Stability, Low to no Inflation and Peace for gold and silver to drop in value - not gonna happen in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 20, 2011, 04:16:32 AM
TG - not trying to be argumentative but the Real Estate bubble was caused by a flood of cheap cash and liberal 120% Loan to Value mortgages underwritten with risk transfer by a flood of unregulated CDSs and CDOs that inflated home prices and now that those liberal lending policies are over and cash tight again home values have plummeted - one might think the same will happen with Gold and Silver etc but the irony is just the opposite as the FED printing presses and virtual money machines (QE1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ad nauseum) as the good professor states - gold and silver outside of traditional industrial and jewelry demand are the only real money and their relative value is a constant -

Well cufflinks, just as there are many different ways a blind man can visualize an elephant, there are different ways to look at most anything.   Thanks for the information you posted.  It was well thought out and well presented and you make some good points.

Personally I look at the things you list as the "cause" of the real estate bubble and collapse not so much as the cause but as the facilitators of it.  To me the cause of the bubble and collapse was "greed"   The things you mentioned just made it easier for greedy people to think they were doing things that would make them rich with very little effort (or risk ha-ha).

To me the bubblie in real estate was more akin to the bubble in stocks in 1928 since both were ways for people to get rich using OPM.

I am just having a hard time understanding how anyone could consider the price of gold a constant.  How do you explain the 1980 gold bubble when gold was higher (adjusted with inflation) than it would be anytime after including now?   Do you believe in the "law of supply and demand"?   You can't belive in the law of supply and demand and belive the price of gold is a constant.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 20, 2011, 04:30:48 AM

Now you know why Bernanke's nut bag is up around his Adams apple for the next couple of years  :snivel: :duh: >:(

What you saw on TV in Fukushima - is also happening in the US economy right now!  Recovery just temporary QE12345... smoke and mirrors for Obamsters 2012 re-election bid - now that he is bombing Libya he can claim he is strong on defense too boot.  Does not look like the fed will pull back on the printing presses and virtual QE money machines throttles any time soon - balanced budgets now a permanent fantasy - so Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either - you need Prosperity, Stability, Low to no Inflation and Peace for gold and silver to drop in value - not gonna happen in my lifetime.

Yes, the speculation a few weeks ago was that there would be no QE3 and now the expecations are there will be and that could well happen to make a 4-5-?.

I bolded the part where you said it doesn't look likely that gold and silver will collpase any time soon.   Personally a few weeks ago I thought we were at the top and the economy seemed to be picking up steam, jobs were getting better, the move to really correct some of the ills in the economy seemed to be winning and if people started pulling out of gold that the price could drop rapidly. 

Now with a third war all the problems in Japan and the like I think the gold price will not drop for a while. 

I do want to respectfully ask you this Cuff.   If gold is a constant, why did you say "Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either "   If it is a constant how can it collapse at all?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on March 20, 2011, 07:17:31 AM
I do want to respectfully ask you this Cuff.   If gold is a constant, why did you say "Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either "   If it is a constant how can it collapse at all?
I think it's just a figure of speech, Ray. Everything is relative, and if the dollar suddenly gains strength gold will go down in price or "collapse" relative to the dollar. Think about it. Why do all governments maintain gold reserve?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 20, 2011, 08:29:57 AM
@Cuffy

Just think about the side effects of QE 1-2-3-whatever,..inflation and as food riots all across Northern Africa,..you never hear people complaining about Dictator X as much as "I have 4 kids and cant buy them food".

To bad (for the Arabs) global prices of food  are expressed in dollars,...,  and Mr Mugabe Fed Chairman is printing them like crazy

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 20, 2011, 09:09:49 AM
Quote
Yes, the speculation a few weeks ago was that there would be no QE3 and now the expecations are there will be and that could well happen to make a 4-5-?.

Its dead easy predicting the economy if you are from the  "Austrain" persuasion...

easy to understand Economics in one lesson,..rap video between Keynes and Hayek (watch full, its funny like hell)


@Cuff,

I see in the graph  that  the wavefront will hit april/jun 2012,..., thats a coincidence right?  ;D

Where is that tin foil hat when you need it,   tiphat




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 20, 2011, 09:47:22 AM

Now you know why Bernanke's nut bag is up around his Adams apple for the next couple of years  :snivel: :duh: >:(

What you saw on TV in Fukushima - is also happening in the US economy right now!  Recovery just temporary QE12345... smoke and mirrors for Obamsters 2012 re-election bid - now that he is bombing Libya he can claim he is strong on defense too boot.  Does not look like the fed will pull back on the printing presses and virtual QE money machines throttles any time soon - balanced budgets now a permanent fantasy - so Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either - you need Prosperity, Stability, Low to no Inflation and Peace for gold and silver to drop in value - not gonna happen in my lifetime.

Yes, the speculation a few weeks ago was that there would be no QE3 and now the expecations are there will be and that could well happen to make a 4-5-?.

I bolded the part where you said it doesn't look likely that gold and silver will collpase any time soon.   Personally a few weeks ago I thought we were at the top and the economy seemed to be picking up steam, jobs were getting better, the move to really correct some of the ills in the economy seemed to be winning and if people started pulling out of gold that the price could drop rapidly. 

Now with a third war all the problems in Japan and the like I think the gold price will not drop for a while. 

I do want to respectfully ask you this Cuff.   If gold is a constant, why did you say "Gold and Silver not about to collapse anytime soon either "   If it is a constant how can it collapse at all?

Its kind of interesting that of all the orthodox economics courses I took in College that forced you to accept all sorts of mental gymnastics and mathematical models based largely on Keynesian theories - and you see the Fed and US Govt lock step with their supercomputer modeling algorithms driven by these theories - only to be dead wrong over and over it is time for a wake up call.  So I read and read and find folks who actually have consistent investing track records and manage to survive Fed bubble boom and busts cycles and learn from them.  What do most with solid track records have in common - a healthy appreciation of the Austrian School of Economics that is based as much on the emotions and mass psychology of markets as it is on Keynesian Math Models - don't get me wrong when people can prove their math like Bill James the statistician who turned around the Boston Red Sox 89 year losing streak http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_James of SABR sabermetrics fame - I pay attention - his math works and even the most skeptical baseball teams and now other sports are running detailed and meaningful stats on all of their players - in his case the numbers do not lie - in the Feds case  the numbers are fantasy.

The work by the Canadian gentlemen previously mentioned who wrote that the gold Bubble is a fantasy as Gold is a constant (Meaning the value of one ounce of gold is constant as it would buy a new suit of clothes in 1492, 1511, 1611, 1711, 1811, 1911 and 2011 as an example) and as the Fed is hyperinflating the currency and now worse the virtual digital QE money supply - they can only wreak havoc over the near and long term future and gold and silver are simply representative of how much the Fed and now ECB have debased the purchasing power of the Dollar and Euro over the past decades and in the dollars case - century. Gold is merely a constant yardstick and the USD and Euro are constantly shrinking due to ignorant if not criminal central bank policies.  When people in business cannot explain their policies in clear language and back it up with solid track records - and instead use Fed-speak to obfuscate their intent like Alan Greenspan did for many years - they are only Con-Men and worse selling the US people down the river and crushing the US standard of living for most everyone from small businesses on up.

So in my life I have found that the people who lie to you especially in life and business are the ones who hurt you the worst and conversely the people who may be derided as unorthodox and non-conformist but have solid track records are the ones to follow - like Peter Schiff of Europacific Capital and Eric Roseman of the Sovereign Society Commodities Trends Alert - and the team at http://www.inflation.us/

Here is a great story about why the Canadians prices and inflation are falling while everyone else are going up - raising the Canadians living standards even more - amazing what sound policy and a healthy currency can do for a country's standard of living  - even one as social and liberal as Canada.  Perhaps we might learn something from our Northern neighbors:

http://www.financialpost.com/news/inflation+falls+everyone+else+goes/4463952/story.html 

versus this scary bit of info:

http://www.inflation.us/dollarcollapseanytime.html

My method is simple really - find folks who have a great track record, do not lie and read and watch everything they say and print and put it through my own skeptics filter of "Does it work?" and act accordingly.

Reference: some very thought provoking series of well done advertising-free videos - ignore at your own risk:

http://inflation.us/videos.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 20, 2011, 09:55:49 AM
Cuffy thinks like an  engineer
,
Theories are nice and all, but common sense and real world success is the yardstick everything should be measured by.

Lets also add that legalize stealing and free money doesn't bring out the best in people.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 20, 2011, 10:04:26 AM
Quote
Yes, the speculation a few weeks ago was that there would be no QE3 and now the expecations are there will be and that could well happen to make a 4-5-?.

Its dead easy predicting the economy if you are from the  "Austrain" persuasion...

easy to understand Economics in one lesson,..rap video between Keynes and Hayek (watch full, its funny like hell)


@Cuff,

I see in the graph  that  the wavefront will hit april/jun 2012,..., thats a coincidence right?  ;D

Where is that tin foil hat when you need it,   tiphat

LOL thanks for the link JC - that is probably the best way I have ever seen to teach big picture economics to our college kids today - urban and suburban alike  :smokin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on March 21, 2011, 05:06:20 AM
Here is the latest news (specualtion) on where gold prices are headed this year.  This was on Yahoo Financial today.


A read of the headlines would make it seem that the good times for gold should continue -- rising food prices, riots, inflation, conflict between North and South Korea, U.S. stimulus, devastation in Japan and high unemployment. But these factors, for now, have stopped moving the needle to record highs. Instead investment interest, which gold desperately needs to break and hold its top of $1,445 an ounce, has waned.
The SPDR Gold Shares dropped more than 50 tons of gold in January, a third of what the ETF added in 2010 and has dropped 10 more tons since then. Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.com, has been warning of a fast and furious exit by traders and hedge funds, which could pummel the gold price.
"I would expect a sell by date in this market could come before the 2011 trading period is over." Nadler predicts that gold could slip to $1,150 an ounce and if that level doesn't hold, gold could drop past $1,000.
Nadler isn't the only bear. IBIS World reiterated its statement that gold had reached the end of its bull run. Over 2011, IBISWorld says that the price will fall 1.3% to $1,209.78, with gold ending the year at $1,150 an ounce.
Goldman Sachs, in a recent research note, said that gold could rally to $1,480 an ounce through June but that once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the U.S. economy improves, gold prices will top out. Goldman is calling for a peak in prices in 2012.
Not everyone is as conservative. Big time investor, Jim Rogers, stands behind his long term $2,000 gold price prediction.  
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on March 21, 2011, 07:40:40 AM
TG, no, people were not greedy!

Cufflinks was right, it was what I was saying back in 2005. ;) people should've been paying me money for the stuff. :)

People make rational choices based upon the conditions they see around them. If a market is interfered with then there will be, sure as night follows day, consequences, some expected and some unexpected.

When loans become easy to get and nominal incomes are rising, what's to do?
When you can get loans worth MORE than the cost of your house, what is a rational bloke to do?
When interest rates are running a a rate lower then perceived inflation what does a bloke do?

A rational bloke will go and take the free money, as much of it and as fast as possible, that is not greed, it is, for most people, self preservation!

Almost 30 years ago I bought my first real estate as an investment. I understood that, in truth it was not a true investment because I understood even back then that house prices rising faster than the output of the economy, or incomes, were simply stored/postponed inflation*. The same applies with gold. As Cuffy notes, and, as I have written in this very thread, over time the real price of gold is pretty much constant, albeit that, just as with RE there are opportunities from time to time to make arbitrage profits.

So, no, people are not greedy in buying into a market that has been meddled with, they are just doing what makes good sense. The problem is that people who know a little better understand that such situations are akin to the party game of musical chairs, or pass the parcel. The profits that are made will be at the expense of the last entrants to the market, so timing is the key and even experts get that wrong from time to time.

*There is a problem here too, if one does NOT enter the market and take advantage of the opportunity to postpone some inflation then one will suffer more than most of those who DO enter the market.
For example, by buying into a growing RE market one might well be able to trade up to a very nice home for oneself, one unattainable without participation in the market. So, in my case, I bought several houses on very favourable terms with a view to selling them and buying a single very nice house of a type that would have ordinarily been out of my reach. Many people did the same, those who chose to not do so ended up stuck where they were before lamenting how much houses were costing and they could not afford to upgrade.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 21, 2011, 07:37:10 PM
TG - I hear what you are saying and go back to my point:

My method is simple really - find folks who have a great track record, do not lie and read and watch everything they say and print and put it through my own skeptics filter of "Does it work?" and act accordingly.

Honestly I consider Goldman Suks to be one of the most unethical and corrupt companies in the world - they give money equally and in huge amounts to both the Republicans and Democrats to insure they will always have their prior execs in key cabinet posts to do their bidding.  This is a company notorious for creating Pump and Dump profits like a pink sheet OTC boiler room.  They created billions in mortgage backed securities and sold them to unsuspecting investors just so one of their largest hedge fund investors could short them and make 3 Billions.  JP Morgan would be rolling in his grave - in his day if you invested in one of his underwritings and lost money he would personally make good on it from his funds and go take measures to recover what he could from the failed investment of which he had few.  They converted to a bank to tap into the TARP rescue bonanza of interest free bail out money.  I am surprised that the Attorney General of NY has not prosecuted the lot of these crooks - believe they paid multi hundred million dollar fines to sweep this under the rug so they could gone on and make billions more with more scams. 

Those days of integrity on Wall Street building value for investors and America for the future are forever gone and their crimes hidden in myriad Computer Generated trades.

If you take a look at this video they postulate a scenario that makes Jim Rogers look positively bearish!



And then go Google: "Obama Budget to Produce $9.5 Trillion Deficit: CBO" ... I predict Gold and Silver to rise much higher due to accelerating debasement of the Dollar multiplied by perpetual QE or Quantitative Easing (Fed Printing Trillions of Virtual DigiDollars - saves on printing costs and create unlimited "cash" Mugabe style driving dollars lower to a fraction of today's value.  I am afraid the stage is set to wipe out the Dollar and create the NAU (North American Union) Amero - Mexico has set the peso to historical levels and the Canadian Dollar is now at par with the US Dollar so what is left - crush the dollar wipe out US sovereignty and force the EU-ization of the Americas.

Regarding real estate at lot of the RINO (Republican In Name Only) chicken hawks love to say everyone who lost their home to foreclosure was just greedy and bought too much home for their money and got in over their heads - to build on Andrews point if a bloke did not hop on the Fed RE train to build equity he will get left behind.  Timing IS everything - To may family's credit and decades of hard work the one exception to this is well selected Income Real Estate either single, 2 ,3 and 4 or more family units in good areas close to a growing high tech economy adding jobs versus a declining and decaying rust belt area accelerating the off shoring of manufacturing jobs.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2011-03-20-home-ownership.htm

This very interesting article challenges the notion Real Estate is ever a good investment with academic research including:

Tax breaks, equity growth and the sanctity of the American dream — the real estate community has made a pretty compelling case over the years for the merits of purchasing property versus throwing your money away on rent.

But as the housing market redefines itself in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing industry recession, a number of economists who follow the industry suggest the benefit of buying no longer applies. Others say it never did.

Yale economist Robert Shiller, whose book "Irrational Exuberance" accurately predicted the stock market collapse in 2000, notes that U.S. housing prices posted roughly a zero percent gain between 1890 and 1990, after adjusting for inflation.

This in fact reinforces the statement that Gold is a Constant and does not change value - only that the Fiat currencies are losing value - basically the same number of ounces of gold that it took to buy a home in 1890 would buy the same size home today.  House did not gain value - the currency was "debased" (Lost the base underpinning its value) and the Dollar just lost value.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on March 22, 2011, 02:56:34 PM
Quote
Goldman Sachs, in a recent research note,

Why are people still listening to "experts" who have been consistently wrong on every move in the market?  Btw, arent these guys broke yet?

Quote
said that gold could rally to $1,480 an ounce through June but that once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates

TRue, the fed could so something,..smart and raise interest rates , just like Volkmar did under Reagan,....

Hey TG, if you ow money (the USA owes 12 trillion and counting) how much interest (EXTRA) a year would the government have to pay on that debt if say....interest rates was raised by 1%?

12.000.000.000.000 x 0.01 = 120'000'000'000

Thats 120 billion a year PER PERCENT,...,

Balancing the budget (2 trillion a year hole), paying back debt at higher interest (at 5 % thats HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR) , and then......paying back the 12 TRILLION debt.

I say declare bankruptcy and start over! I hear Donald trump is an expert in that.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on March 25, 2011, 03:59:25 PM
JC,

I hear the donald read your note and got so angry his toupee did somersaults.

;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 25, 2011, 04:37:21 PM
All that glitters is not only gold:

http://www.fool.com/fool/free-report/25/gg-australia-audio-95255.aspx

The Nuclear Problem You're Not Hearing About

Russia to devastate US Energy Supplies:

http://web.streetauthority.com/m/srw/SRW01/player.asp?TC=SRW040&utm_source=IHP-IU/SAD&utm_campaign=The_Nuclear_Problem_Youre_Not_Hearing_Ab&utm_medium=EMAIL&U=1680946
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 25, 2011, 04:48:26 PM
Quote
JC:
I say declare bankruptcy and start over! I hear Donald trump is an expert in that.

As the old saying goes be careful what you wish for!  Could happen just like Argentina defaulted on their debts or Russia in 1998 just wiped out all cash and bank accounts by revaluing the Ruble (from 3000 rubles to 30 rubles per dollar) similar to Mexico which revalued the peso from 3000 pesos to 13 pesos per dollar.

Might even do it under the pretext of converting to the North American Amero - especially now that the Can$ is at par - swap 10,000 USD for one NAU (North American Union) Amero.  So a house selling for 1 Million USD goes back to 10,000 Ameros and salaries of 1,000 Amero = buying power of 100,000 2011 inflatobucks.  Sound far fetched - maybe - maybe not!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Fo on April 02, 2011, 04:47:17 AM
Excuse my ignorance guys but on page 3 of this topic someone mentions non hybrid garden seeds. Is that some kind of business term or are we talking about seeds?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 02, 2011, 11:57:14 AM
Excuse my ignorance guys but on page 3 of this topic someone mentions non hybrid garden seeds. Is that some kind of business term or are we talking about seeds?

The conversation context at that point was what you would need to have on hand to survive a major hyperinflationary event and full scale meltdown of the USA economic system vis a vis Argentina in 1989 and Russia 1998.

Non Hybrid Garden seeds mean NO Monsanto Frankenstein food - rather actual legacy seeds that will actually grow - provide a food source for you and your family and be fertile so you can save some and replant the next year unlike Monsanto patented Genetically Modified seeds that are infertile and can not be replanted - forcing US and Canadian and third world farmers to buy from Monsanto every year under the guise that their Frankenstein seeds are "disease resistant" with higher crop yields per acre - how ever if there is a major economic collapse and you have no useful cash in a hyperinflationary event to buy from Monsanto - YOU BLOODY FREAKING STARVE TO DEATH like so many did in China during th "Cultural Revolution"!

Very Interesting Read:

http://www.gmwatch.eu/latest-listing/1-news-items/13021-a-hubergmoroundup-update

Latter-Day Luther Nails Troubling Thesis to GM Farm & Food Citadels
© 2011 - by Steven McFadden
http://bit.ly/gTbBSq

After trucking across the high plains for five hours, and casting my eyes over perhaps 100,000 acres or more of winter's still deathly gray industrial farmland, I came face to face with the newly famous Dr. Don M. Huber in the cave-dark meeting room of the Black Horse Inn just outside the American Heartland village of Creighton, Nebraska.

On the morning of March 24, along with about 80 farmers and Extension agents, I listened as Huber discoursed with erudition and eloquence upon industrial farming practices that may be impacting nearly every morsel of food produced on the planet, and that subsequently may also be having staggeringly serious health consequences for plants, animals, and human beings.

Huber is emeritus soil scientist of Purdue University, and a retired U.S. Army Colonel who served as an intelligence analyst, for 41 years, active and reserves. In Nebraska, he stood ramrod straight for three hours with no notes and spoke with an astonishing depth and range of knowledge on crucial, controversial matters of soil science, genetic engineering, and the profound impact of the widely used herbicide glyphosate upon soil and plants, and ultimately upon the health of animals and human beings.

Dressed in a conservative dark suit and tie, Huber set the stage for his presentation by observing that he has been married for 52 years, and has 11 children, 36 grandchildren, and a great-grandchild on the way. He then began his formal talk framed by a PowerPoint slide bearing a Biblical quote: "All flesh is grass." - Isaiah 4:6. With this he emphasized the foundational reality that the biotech grains we eat, as well as the biotech grains eaten by cows, hogs, and chickens, are grown in vast herbicide-treated fields.

For the domineering giants of industrial agriculture - multinational corporations, universities, and governments - Huber's assertions about the impact of glyphosate, and the mounting scientific questions about GMO crops, may be as significant and disrupting as Martin Luther's "heretical" act in 1517. That's when Luther nailed his 95 theses to the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany to challenge the systemic problems in the almighty institutions of his era.

Luther disputed the claim that spiritual forgiveness from sins could be legitimately sold for money. Huber and other researchers say they are accumulating evidence that - along with the 2010 report of the U.S. President's Cancer panel which bluntly blames chemicals for the staggering prevalence of cancers - raises profoundly challenging questions about the chemical and genetic-engineering practices of industrial agriculture. The challenge, if it holds up, has implications not just for agricultural institutions, but also for the primary food chain serving the Earth's population.

Not an altogether new controversy, the complex matters of industrial agriculture, genetic engineering and the far-flung use of herbicides has been ominously and exponentially accentuated in the last year by virtue of its ominous context: last summer's epic oil catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, the nation-ripping 9.0 earthquake in Japan earlier this month, with its subsequent tsunami and nuclear meltdown which is contaminating the nation's water and food chain, in combination with the statistical reality that on our planet of nearly seven billion people, over a billion human beings - one of every six of us - is hungry.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Fo on April 04, 2011, 07:48:16 AM
Thanks Cuff. Good article too. I'd heard about the Frankenstein seed piss-take when they were trying to foist them on India. Boggles the mind eh, what people will do for money.
I tune into the channel RT now and again, mostly to watch the Keiser Report. Have you seen it? He would be on over here, on a primetime slot if I had my way. He's hilarious too. Especially when he's talking about dickheads like Bernanke (? spelling) I thinks he's the same guy who thinks he's doing the work of God. What can I say? Speechless.
For almost a year Keiser has been trying to start a campaign aimed at getting as many people as possible to buy silver. Just an ounce each or something small. I half understoood why from the Tv show, but now I get it after reading this. I think the aim of the campaign is to sink JP Morgan. I hope it works. Sounds like the knock on effects might be severe in many ways but the guy Morgan is a vampire. There's go to be a better way than the one he, and people like him choose for us.
I'll make sure I've got a few spuds on the go)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 04, 2011, 03:43:44 PM
meanwhile silver is at $38.59 per Oz from $17.60 last summer. We've been talking about this for over a year I think. Was it worth getting into it a year ago? Yes. Is it worth getting into it now? Depends on if you believe that our dollar is going up or down. All indications show that it will continue losing value, which means that precious metals will continue going up (or the more correct term would be "continue to hold value"). It will prolly be at $50 an ounce by the end of summer. But off course no one can guarantee that. All you can do is look at the facts and make projections based on that.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 06, 2011, 10:10:27 AM
Gold $1457.11 (USD) - Silver $39.42 (USD) as I type.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 06, 2011, 02:05:25 PM
Possible Light at the end of the tunnel?

Ironic really that Canada, Panama, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and even Columbia looking better all the time ;)

Russia looks fairly well poised to prosper over the next few decades at least and being next to China has not hurt them – amazing how much the world has changed just in our lifetimes – Russia, Brazil, Chile, India and China and Asia good investments and the USA now a horrible investment.  Makes me want to puke blood to even think this.

I find it even more ironic that RT seems to be less pro-Moscow propaganda and more honest reporting when compared to Obama Admin, The Fed, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - only real part of the US economy growing is Wall Street banking borrowing from the Fed to Buy Treasuries so the FED does not have to buy 100% of the T Bills issed (Can you say QE3 4 5 6 7... hyperinflationary to the max) - United States of Zimbabwe.

Slight glimmer of hope…   
http://www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov/plan/desclegtext.htm

Well maybe not…
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/04/paul_ryans_medicare_plan_in_a.html

I like the idea of balancing the budget and paying off the National debt but as the NYMAG article states not gonna happen with a Dem Senate and Whitehouse…

Trumps idea of making China, Brazil, India, Russia, Korea, Japan, Germany and OPEC pay for free access to the USA markets and pay for US Military Protection of the Seaways to guarantee free trade is the best Idea yet – as Trump says we will charge China and Korea for access to our markets (read: charge them for dumping cheap crap here and allowing almost NO US manufactured imports to their countries) and PAY OFF the national Debt!

Point is if they make any traction on balanicing the budget Gold and Silver could drop significantly like it did during Clinton Gore years...  that's why smart folks tell you to keep a max of 5% to 10% in gold and silver and the rest in Income Producing companies that produce what China and Korea and even Japan need to buy especially after the FUKUshima nuclear nightmare.  I am not eating sushi any time soon - albacore tuna migrate from Japan to the waters off Alaska.

Now there is a biz opp - portable wristwatch style geiger counters - water proof to measure the Rain and or Fish...

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 06, 2011, 03:22:14 PM
Mike, what is the likelyhood of balancing the budget while the Dems are in power?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 06, 2011, 09:42:48 PM
Can one of you gold experts help me out here?

I need to get the closing value of 1oz Krugerrand coins on December 31, 2010 for a portfolio evaluation.  Bid and asked if available.

Can't seem to find anything but a current price on the internet.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 06, 2011, 09:57:31 PM
Can one of you gold experts help me out here?

I need to get the closing value of 1oz Krugerrand coins on December 31, 2010 for a portfolio evaluation.  Bid and asked if available.

Can't seem to find anything but a current price on the internet.
try www.kitco.com  they have historic charts, you might be able to look that up there.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 06, 2011, 10:15:36 PM
Can one of you gold experts help me out here?

I need to get the closing value of 1oz Krugerrand coins on December 31, 2010 for a portfolio evaluation.  Bid and asked if available.

Can't seem to find anything but a current price on the internet.

Shakey Krugerrands aren't bought and sold on the market like gold is so there isn't one true price  for the value of a 1 oz Krugerrand.  The price at any time will vary from dealer to dealer.  The  accepted way of valuing something like a Krugerrand is to gather several quotes for the specified date from different dealers and average the quotes.  If you don't want to do all that work simply get a quote from a local dealer and use that number.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 06, 2011, 10:21:28 PM
Shakey Krugerrands aren't bought and sold on the market like gold is so there isn't one true price  for the value of a 1 oz Krugerrand.  The price at any time will vary from dealer to dealer.  The  accepted way of valuing something like a Krugerrand is to gather several quotes for the specified date from different dealers and average the quotes.  If you don't want to do all that work simply get a quote from a local dealer and use that number.

OK, but all I can find is a current price.  I need a price from 12-31-2010.  The Wall Street Journal used to have a daily closing proice for Krugerrands with a bid (sell) and asked(buy) price.  Can't seem to find that anywhere on the internet. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 07, 2011, 04:11:01 PM
Mike, what is the likelyhood of balancing the budget while the Dems are in power?

Ed - Considering BHO is not just copying a few plays but using the entire playbook and staffers from Bill Clinton  - well Clinton started left and shifted Center with taxes and a budget plan that hit a surplus and got him reelected - a surplus that Bush evaporated and eventually left BHO with a nasty 100 year recession (meaning bad is in 100 year flood or 100 year Tsunami) and BHO knows that he can blame a $6.2 Trillion 2012 budget cut on the Tea party but secretly knows that it is the right thing to do - Billionaires and Multimillionaires will not see any more tax cuts though and they will be means tested for Social Security, medicare and medicaid - focus is on small businesses and jobs and taxes and healthcare killing small biz in the USA so that is where the major play will be in 2012 - Old Line Bush Blue Blood Republicans try to use the Tea party to kill unions and Bail out the Forbes 400 Billionaires and Obama the socialist pragmatist moving to the center and focusing on small business recovery and incentives for "Main Street" instead of Wall Street.  Most independents and Tea Partiers are pro small business so it will be an interesting year but hiring in high tech already picking up and key web architects and software engineering skillsets going at a premium again.

That's my opinion anyways but I did not think they would actually shut down the Government with our troops at war and sacrificing their lives - 6 were killed in a nasty fire fight on Afghan-Wakipaki border recently and air support was light at best.

Who ever ordered these men in as bait and sitting ducks should be tried for war crimes against our troops and have to compensate their families.

So the Tea Party - which I am sympathetic to - will lose a lot of veterans - 25 Million of us and our friends and families - 100 Million or so voters - if they leave our troops stranded even for 1 freaking minute - Our troops are already under fire with less than adequate close air support and Obama the compromiser does not want to make Karzai upset so there is no hard air softening of hostile compounds that the Taliban has infiltrated among civilian populations and our guys have their hands tied behind their backs with "no civilian casualties" as the combat order of the day and the insane rules of engagement that are getting our guys killed.  Compromising in this case has compromised our Troops.

So I think there will be another continuing resolution and the big budget battle will be the 2012 budget and I think Congressman Paul Ryan is telling everyone the truth that no one wants to hear - the harsh medcine is $6.2 Trillion in cuts needed over 10 years and the USA is now Broke - Medicare Medicaid and Social Security are sacred cows no more and if they kick the can down the road again the next crisis will turn us into the next Zimbabwe.  Only the Fed and a few big banks that buy short term treasuries with money borrowed from the Fed are still buying any US Debt - China, Japan, EU, UK and OPEC all following the lead of PIMCO bond fund who dumped all US Federal and Municipal debt bonds.

Of course as they used to say in the service that's just my one man's opinion and opinions are like bungholes - we all have one and they all stink!  Just like this situation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on April 08, 2011, 07:21:49 AM
USA Government needs to do what the American auto industry finally did.

All pension plans frozen and no more money for these plans.  Once the payments are used up there gone. 

30% $ cut in salaries and benefits.  Can fire people, reduce salaries, do whatever it takes. but total $ amount needs to come down.

Than have a 5% reduction in costs per year until the government runs a 10% profit per year. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 08, 2011, 01:12:19 PM
If any of you are interested in buying gold here is the latest scoop.  I am not BSing you at all,  all of these come from research groups that I pay good $$$.

1. Gold is breaking new records.  The US dollar which was supposed to have a bounce back is not having one.  This is due to a variety of reasons but lets just say that more retiring/retired workers are starting to jump in on the PM wagon.

2.  The next agenda to watch is QE3.  Will it happen or not.  June 30th is the key date.  If QE3 does not happen, stocks should take a huge hit and gold and silver will take a hit.  Correction of about 10-20 percent in gold and up to 40% in silver should be expected.

3.  The next price range silver is looking at is 42-43 dollars.  If it breaks above 43 dollars in 2 consecutive days, it has a very high chance of going parabolic, but do keep in mind 6/30  The date noted above and next is VERY VERY VERY important.  I

4.  The next price range for gold is shooting for is 1600-1630.    But obviously June 30th is a key date.

5.  Gold and silver (esp silver is way too overbought)  Despite the new records, caution is advised in placing new orders.   Silver is vulnerable to a correction so taking only half or quarter position is good.  Recommended buying is silver wheaton  but keeping a tight stop loss is crucial.

6.  US dollar is heading lower.  The earthquake proved that no one is running to the US dollar.  This does not spell anything good for the dollar.  Unless something drastic happens, this trend may continue for a month or two.

6.  The yen which should have gotten stronger due to repatriating to cover the cost of damage has gotten weaker.  This probably means that G7 (not G8 or G20) probably wants to keep the dollar floating for some more time.  And something is happening behind the curtain to keep the Japanese from selling US treasuries. Long story short, the masters of the universe still don't want to see US go to hell.  This basically means that there is still a very large chance that gold might see some major correction in this current quarter.

7.  US government shutting down is most likely baked into the price of the cake.  Meaning that if it does shut down due to the budget quagmire,  it should not have a lot of effect on the price of gold.

So long story short, if you must make money right away, get on the train.  But this is only advised to people with about 150,000 USD and above.  If you set a tight stop and play the market, you can make some quick cash.    The most important is the last few days of June.  Nothing recognizable may happen to the untrained eye, but it should dictate the price of stock, inflation, gold, silver and general living conditions.  So keep an eye on it. 

One last thing,  I have a bad feeling that the US government is not going to allow gold and silver to keep on heading higher.  They may call the ETFs to show them the physical holdings.  This is all together another thread but somehow,  I feel that if the price of PM doesnt correct in one way or another  by late June/ July, we may have a horrible correction by winter of this year.  This is just a hunch.  I just cant see PM going up so high without a correction and the government allowing PM to take over FIAT currency.  (not just yet, at least until NWO rears its ugly head)  We are still not in the mania phase but the graphs are starting to look like it.  Market will act stupid, crazy and unbelievable longer than anyone can stay solvent, this being said, if you want zen like peace in your mind, hold 50% cash, 45% gold, 5 % silver and stop looking at the charts everyday.  Gold will eventually go up beyond 2000, more like 5000 and silver will go up to 60 easily, more like 125 in the long run.   Buy physical, sit back, relax, buy more physical when you get the dough.  Add physical  positions every month possible until impossible. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 08, 2011, 04:00:46 PM
Thanks MissileMe, sounds like good advice.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 09, 2011, 11:56:14 AM
Shakey Krugerrands aren't bought and sold on the market like gold is so there isn't one true price  for the value of a 1 oz Krugerrand.  The price at any time will vary from dealer to dealer.  The  accepted way of valuing something like a Krugerrand is to gather several quotes for the specified date from different dealers and average the quotes.  If you don't want to do all that work simply get a quote from a local dealer and use that number.

OK, but all I can find is a current price.  I need a price from 12-31-2010.  The Wall Street Journal used to have a daily closing proice for Krugerrands with a bid (sell) and asked(buy) price.  Can't seem to find that anywhere on the internet.

http://inflation.us/reviews/
http://inflation.us/reviews/gainesvillecoins.html

Gainesville coins was the only Gold and Silver seller on NIA to achieve a 5 Star rating - they do sell Krugerrands - they will probably be more than helpful as you might become a new customer ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 09, 2011, 12:09:40 PM
Well in the old movie with Dustin Hoffman the one word of advice was "Plastics"

Who knew that in 2011 it would be "cupcakes"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Crumbs-The-66-Million-Cupcake-dg-1793919495.html?x=0

Point is USD interest rates will be a joke until the Alt A and option Arms all reset and US Treasury and Fed can recoup their Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac $6Trillion+ bailout.

Conventional wisdow of most trusted investments newsletters is you want to be in gold and silver as a hedge against USA hyperinflation and also - to earn an income to live - you want to be in Companies and Commodities that supply the needs of the Asian (China/Korea/Vietnam/India/Japan etc.) countries demand over the next few decades...

What about the good old USA you ask - well no one ever went broke feeding the sweet-tooth of the average American!

Ironically the most profitably US Company in China is YUM brands - no franchises and all company owned fast food outlets - seems the Chinese love KFC - maybe Crumbs is next ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 09, 2011, 12:10:13 PM
http://inflation.us/reviews/
http://inflation.us/reviews/gainesvillecoins.html

Gainesville coins was the only Gold and Silver seller on NIA to achieve a 5 Star rating - they do sell Krugerrands - they will probably be more than helpful as you might become a new customer ;)

Thanks Cuffy - that was just the contact information I needed. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 15, 2011, 03:29:23 PM
Gold - $1,486.37(USD) / Silver - $43.01(USD) as I type (Market Close).

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 15, 2011, 06:42:53 PM
Gold - $1,486.37(USD) / Silver - $43.01(USD) as I type (Market Close).

Brass
yeah, I just was looking at it myself...unbelievable! This means that US dollar is going to sheet...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 16, 2011, 12:58:33 AM
I've been getting a lot of chart data that all points out to the dollar making a short term rally.

This confirmation comes from 3 major investment research groups. 

I would not be surprised if gold and silver take a hit sometime soon.   If you are buying, I'd be very cautious right now.

Silver's overhead resistance is somewhere around 43 bucks.  Taking this into consideration, if it can break out of this line a few days in a row, it would show that it's going to take off to the next line.   But like I wrote previously, June 30th is a key date.    By May 30th, we should know more about the debt ceiling too.  By the end of this month, we should get a more clear view of June 30th.   

David Morgan says that up until May 3rd, silver should be on an uptrend, beyond that is still up in the air. 

As for gold, all indicators point upward in the middle term but the dollar rally may bring the price down by 5-10 percent. 

It's hard to say what is contrarian when contrarian looks more mainstream.  For now I would have to say that contrarian would be: Dollar making a comeback.    If I were to invest, I would position 25 % right now, wait a few weeks, then go another 35%.  I would only go 100% if there is a substantial pull back.   I believe warren buffet said "be fearful when everyone is greedy.  be greedy when everyone is fearful".   I believe it's time to apply that saying.    He also said, that rule of investing is 1. never lose money.  2. never forget rule number one. (something like that).   Jumping onto the wagon because you fear that you're missing out on the action is a sure way to ignore Buffet's advise.
Fear of missing the action should never override fear of losing money.

Keep in mind, contrarian is one of the few ways to make it big.    Personally speaking, I'd go for bio-tech stock.  Now this is making a comeback after being dormant for over 10 years.   A famous investor said "all you need is to ride the bio-tech wave once, and you'll never have to work again".  That wave is just starting.

Also the stock market looks like it is going to take a major hit.
Chris Hunter says,

There have been only four times over the last 130 years when the S&P 500 has carried such a high valuation. And on each occasion these valuation spikes have been precursors of big declines.

What to Watch

Most investors look at stocks’ “price picture.” They obsess about how many points up or down the S&P 500 or the Dow has moved. This simply tells them how much other investors are willing to pay for stocks. It tells them nothing about stocks’ probable future returns.

For that, you need to look at stocks’ “value picture.” This is most commonly expressed in the P/E ratio – the price investors pay for stocks compared to their per-share earnings. History shows that the higher the P/E ratio the lower the returns and vice versa. That’s because shares are really claims on future earnings. Pay more at the outset, and you naturally depress your overall returns.


What to Do

When the Shiller P/E is at current levels (about 43% higher than its long-term historical average) it is a time for caution. Let me list the four previous occasions when valuations have been this high to give you a better idea of what I mean:

• The late 1920s, right before the devastating crash on Black Tuesday.

• The late 1960s, right before the 16 years of decline all the way through to the 1982 turnaround.

• The late 1990s, right before the dot-com bubble burst.

• The late 2000s, right before the 2008 stock market crash.

Robert Shiller is best known for his book Irrational Exuberance. In it he examines the mindset that occurs in speculative bubbles. In short, investors are prone to losing their senses and bidding up assets way beyond their fair value. Right now has every appearance of being such a time. Do not get caught up in the mania. Stick to your allocations. Wait for bargains to become available after this current speculative phase ends.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So there you go, a crash course on market crashes.   Hope you all make tons of money!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 16, 2011, 12:15:03 PM
As of 15 April 2011, I have heard that Belarus state bank will not sell gold or silver ...but will buy them and pay in BYR.....

Well,...why would anyone be so stupid to swap gold for fiat BYR paper?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 17, 2011, 01:12:07 AM
I believe Belarus is having a bank run.  The recent terrorist attack is said to be some inside job to get the peoples' attention off the defaulting economy.  Although the news is saying that economy is getting better, no one with the right mind believes it. 

Most people in Belarus suspect that the currency will be devalued by 20-30 percent (at least).  Moscow is planning to give them aid, at what cost, only God knows.....

Anyway Belarus should be a good example of what can happen in any country when spending and printing go out of hand.   USA, EU, and Japan could learn a lesson or two.

Buying gold and silver is great but from all the information I gather, having 3-6 months worth of food supply, 6 month worth of cash, and putting the rest in an overseas bank (50% cash, 50% gold) is probably the best idea for now.   

Everyone should take a hard look at Belarus and their current socio-economic situation because this is what we should expect in the coming years.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Paul on April 17, 2011, 03:00:49 PM
From the Wall Street Journal...

Quote
By JAMES MARSON

Belarussians scrambled to convert their local currency into U.S. dollars Sunday after President Alexander Lukashenko hinted that the Belarussian ruble could be devalued in coming days as Russia stalled on granting much-needed loans.

Lengthy queues formed outside currency exchanges, while some people turned to the black market to ditch their rubles at 10% to 20% above the official rate.

Mr. Lukashenko indicated Saturday that Belarus would adjust the exchange rate "in the next few days."

"Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, we'll straighten out the situation with foreign currency. ... The exchange rate is a matter of several days, [we] need, perhaps, a week," he said, in comments carried by the state news agency.

One day earlier, he had suggested devaluation might not be necessary.

The ruble has come under pressure as Belarus's foreign reserves dwindled after the government boosted spending ahead of presidential elections in December and Russia cut crucial oil and gas subsidies.

The autocratic Mr. Lukashenko was elected to a fourth term since taking power in 1994, as thousands of people took to the streets to demonstrate against alleged vote-rigging.

The government has asked Russia and other ex-Soviet nations for a $3 billion bailout, but Moscow has demanded an economic stabilization program.

Belarus allowed a de facto 10% devaluation of the ruble on the interbank market in March, but cash exchanges have continued operating at the official rate.

Some Belarussians queued for several hours at exchanges Sunday or turned to friends and relatives to swap currency in order to protect savings or pay off foreign-currency loans.

"Everyone knows foreign currency isn't worth what it's being sold for at exchanges," said a 41-year-old woman who gave her name as Svetlana.

Mr. Lukashenko also said Saturday that the government would cut spending and lending, steps recommended by the International Monetary Fund to help Belarus deal with its large current-account deficit.

The increased economic uncertainty comes after Minsk, the capital, was shaken last week by a subway bombing that killed 13 people.

Mr. Lukashenko blamed unnamed enemies for trying to "destabilize" the country, saying that the bombing, the currency crisis and panic buying of sugar and vegetable oil amid rumors of imminent price increases were part of a "chain."

Mr. Lukashenko said Wednesday that the bomber had been caught, but the motive behind the attack remains a mystery.

Mounting economic woes and questions about security could dent the image Mr. Lukashenko cultivates as the country's guarantor of peace and stability.
—Olga Tomashevskaya contributed to this article.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 17, 2011, 06:30:36 PM
DO NOT BROWSE THE INTERNET ON THE SAME PC YOU USE TO DO YOUR ON LINE BANKING ...

Even you are even slightly concerned that you may have been root kitted or botnetted - time to find all of your original CD Software Disks and License Codes - FDISK your entire PC and reinstall from know (not pirated Software CDs or copies) and rebuild your system from scratch - after using a NSA level diskwiping utility... that is the standard operating procedure we use for any possibly compromised PCs...

Even AVG rootkit scanner is not 100% effective so Win 7 rebuild after an NSA diskwipe the only sure fire solution....  Then never use the PC you surf the net with and get emails on to do your on line banking - keep a separate netbook or risk losing everything in your account - read on as forewarned is forearmed...

They might actually prosecute some criminals but the victims will never see a penny back of their money - it is spent and long gone...

Since this is the most active financial thread I am posting the full article here...

U.S. shuts down massive cyber theft ring

Russian Crime ring that ran the Rustock Botnet may have "botted" with keystroke loggers and stolen over 2 million plus PCs info and over $100 Million - operated for over 10 years!

By Diane Bartz and Jim Finkle

WASHINGTON/BOSTON | Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:55pm EDT

WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. authorities claimed one of their biggest victories against cyber crime as they shut down a ring they said used malicious software to take control of more than 2 million PCs around the world, and may have led to theft of more than $100 million.

A computer virus, dubbed Coreflood, infected more than 2 million PCs, enslaving them into a "botnet" that grabbed banking credentials and other sensitive data its masters used to steal funds via fraudulent banking and wire transactions, the U.S. Department of Justice said on Wednesday.

The government shuttered that botnet, which had operated for a decade, by seizing hard drives used to run it after a federal court in Connecticut gave the go-ahead.

"This was big money stolen on a large scale by foreign criminals. The FBI wanted to stop it and they did an incredibly good job at it," said Alan Paller, director of research at the SAN Institute, a nonprofit group that helps fight cyber crime.

The vast majority of the infected machines were in the United States, but the criminal gang was likely overseas.

"We're pretty sure a Russian crime group was behind it," said Paller.

Paller and other security experts said it was hard to know how much money the gang stole. It could easily be tens of millions of dollars and could go above $100 million, said Dave Marcus, McAfee Labs research and communications director.

A civil complaint against 13 unnamed foreign nationals was also filed by the U.S. district attorney in Connecticut. It accused them of wire and bank fraud. The Justice Department said it had an ongoing criminal investigation.

The malicious Coreflood software was used to infect computers with keylogging software that stole user names, passwords, financial data and other information, the Justice Department said.

"The seizure of the Coreflood servers and Internet domain names is expected to prevent criminals from using Coreflood or computers infected by Coreflood for their nefarious purposes," U.S. Attorney David Fein said in a statement.

In March, law enforcement raids on servers used by a Rustock botnet were shut down after legal action against them by Microsoft Corp. Authorities severed the Rustock IP addresses, effectively disabling the botnet.

Rustock had been one of the biggest producers of spam e-mail, with some tech security experts estimating they produced half the spam that fills people's junk mail bins.

A botnet is essentially one or more servers that spread malicious software and use the software to send spam or to steal personal information or data that can be used to empty a victim's bank account.

U.S. government programmers shut down the Coreflood botnet on Tuesday. They also instructed the computers enslaved in the botnet to stop sending stolen data and to shut down. A similar tactic was used in a Dutch case, but it was the first time U.S. authorities had used this method to shut down a botnet, according to court documents.

Victims of the botnet included a real estate company in Michigan that lost $115,771, a South Carolina law firm that lost $78,421 and a Tennessee defense contractor that lost $241,866, according to the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut.

The government plans to work with Internet service providers around the country to identify other victims.

(Reporting by Diane Bartz and Jim Finkle; editing by Gary Hill and Andre Grenon)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 18, 2011, 09:54:23 AM
Gold - $1493.85(USD) as I type. It's starting to get cozy with $1,500. We may see it go over in a day or two.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 18, 2011, 11:44:36 AM
Gold - $1493.85(USD) as I type. It's starting to get cozy with $1,500. We may see it go over in a day or two.

Brass

Its a bubble i tell you,.  LOOOOOL!!!!!

QE4, QE5?  So how is Zimbabwenomics working for yaz? I hear China surpassed the US as nr 1 in undustrial output.... Its all Bushes fault I tell you

{Obama mode off}

having a liberal Ego dont pay the rent,...,hard work does!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 18, 2011, 11:45:33 AM
@Cuff

Sjeesh,..., use a macbook,..., no virusses on that thing!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on April 18, 2011, 11:29:52 PM
Gold - $1493.85(USD) as I type. It's starting to get cozy with $1,500. We may see it go over in a day or two.

Brass

Its a bubble i tell you,.  LOOOOOL!!!!!

QE4, QE5?  So how is Zimbabwenomics working for yaz? I hear China surpassed the US as nr 1 in undustrial output.... Its all Bushes fault I tell you

{Obama mode off}

having a liberal Ego dont pay the rent,...,hard work does!

I shoulda bought gold.

;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on April 19, 2011, 12:11:08 PM
I would post this question again will it go to 2,000 or 1,000 first.  Mentioned this last year.  Stock market has doubled for many stocks past year so gold was not a better buy this last year than many stocks.

You should buy gold now if you think it will go to 2,000 before 1,000 or you can day trade it.  If the answers are no and no do not buy.  If one of the answers is yes, than buy.

Gold is an easy thing to day trade when people have fear and demand.  Spend less than 10 minutes a day and double you money easily every month.  Fear and demand are back however agriculture is more hot now. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 19, 2011, 12:25:44 PM
I would post this question again will it go to 2,000 or 1,000 first.  Mentioned this last year.  Stock market has doubled for many stocks past year so gold was not a better buy this last year than many stocks.

You should buy gold now if you think it will go to 2,000 before 1,000 or you can day trade it.  If the answers are no and no do not buy.  If one of the answers is yes, than buy.

Gold is an easy thing to day trade when people have fear and demand.  Spend less than 10 minutes a day and double you money easily every month.  Fear and demand are back however agriculture is more hot now.

I'm thinking more along the lines of the $1,500. psychological barrier that seems to be prevalent in all these advice/business/stock articles and columns. The gurus all seem to refer to this barrier and if it goes beyond it chances are it will go higher much quicker than the previous last, oh let's say, year(?)

What that has to do with actual markets and such is beyond me but there it is.

That precious metals fund I bought into 7 months ago is up 21+%, it moves slower (both ways) than the spot price on the metals itself of course, but it's doing just fine. :)

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on April 19, 2011, 12:28:13 PM
I fall into the camp have no idea if 2,000 or 1,000.  If Obama gets killed tomorrow I would say not buy.  However if Obama is going to get 4 more years it may go to 10,000. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 19, 2011, 12:45:22 PM
Funny, how the Keynesians on this forum still are having NO clue!


Cuffy, take it away!   I dont have the patience anymore to explain!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 19, 2011, 12:46:49 PM
I fall into the camp have no idea if 2,000 or 1,000.  If Obama gets killed tomorrow I would say not buy.  However if Obama is going to get 4 more years it may go to 10,000.

Yeah, we all know the republicans did a far better job managing the economy
 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 19, 2011, 03:24:47 PM
Funny, how the Keynesians on this forum still are having NO clue!


Cuffy, take it away!   I dont have the patience anymore to explain!

LOL as the learned man in Canada said and I posted previously  - Gold and Silver are a constant medium of exchange (a full suit of clothes example cost one ounce of gold in 1492 when Columbus sailed the ocean blue - cost once ounce of gold in 1911 when we were still on the "gold standard" and costs 1 ounce of gold today - however the paper money we all know and love in our respective countries has been debased by politicians each to buy votes now with debt to maybe be paid in the future and viola we have $1500 gold per ounce - Gold and Silvers' value have not changed - only the relative value of paper currencies issued by government fiat (decree) has steadily collapsed in value and with the trade war between China and the USA (Yes it is a trade war - we are losing and they have been winning but Trump about to fix that) i digress - the race is to drive the USD ever lower to pay back current debts with lower value future dollars - driving bread and gasoline up to $5 a gallon or a loaf level!  Welcome to the Austrian School of jingle in your jeans ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 23, 2011, 10:55:25 AM
Bad News for US Hyperinflation - Good News for Gold and Silver:

NIA Newsletter Article - very blunt but important analysis:

The biggest headline in the news so far this week has been S&P's decision to downgrade their U.S. credit outlook to negative. After S&P made their announcement, almost everybody in the mainstream media proclaimed it to be a "wake up call" for the U.S. government, saying that if they don't make a real effort to cut the budget deficit, a fiscal disaster awaits. Despite lowering the U.S. credit outlook to negative, S&P left the U.S. credit rating at AAA.
 
The real story in the media this week should be, how is it possible that the U.S. credit rating remains AAA? After all, AAA is the highest rating possible. Shouldn't a AAA credit rating be reserved for countries with budget surpluses, low levels of debt, and low levels of price inflation? Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was quick to say after S&P's announcement that there is "no risk" of the U.S. losing its AAA rating. NIA respectfully asks Mr. Geithner to resign from office for making those comments. How could there be "no risk" of the world's largest debtor nation losing its AAA rating?
 
As NIA first exposed in its critically acclaimed documentary 'Meltup', S&P, along with Moody's, rated mortgage-backed securities AAA during the mortgage crisis that didn't just decline in value, but went to zero. In our opinion, the credit ratings agencies have absolutely no credibility left and will be out of business in a few years. S&P and Moody's still rate U.S. debt AAA because they fear the negative backlash that would come immediately if they lowered its rating, which would undoubtedly include calls from members of Congress to take away their licenses to be ratings agencies in this country.
 
NIA believes the U.S. credit rating should be junk. Including unfunded liabilities and the backing of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, the U.S. currently has a real national debt that is five times higher than our GDP. There is no chance of the U.S. ever paying back its debts without printing the money and creating hyperinflation. There is no chance of the U.S. ever balancing its budget, without eliminating the so-called untouchable entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
 
Our nation has reached a point where it is paying out 90% of the money it raises each month from the sales of U.S. treasuries, just to pay back the holders of maturing U.S. treasuries their principle and interest earned. The U.S. needs to continuously sell larger amounts of new debt, just to stay afloat, so there is no conceivable way that any unbiased organization can possibly give the U.S. a credit rating of AAA. The only reason we haven't defaulted on our debts is the Federal Reserve's ability to create monetary inflation and the world's willingness to hoard U.S. dollars due to its status as the world's reserve currency.
 
Despite the euro-zone debt crisis with nations like Greece defaulting on their debt, over the past ten years, the U.S. dollar has fallen from being 70.7% of foreign exchange reserves down to 61.4%, while the Euro has risen from being 19.8% of foreign exchange reserves up to 26.3%. The other currency category, which includes currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, has risen during the past decade from 1.2% to 4.4%. The world is clearly diversifying out of the U.S. dollar.
 
Not only is the demand for dollars declining as a percentage of foreign exchange reserves, but there are now calls for our largest creditor nation China to reduce their total foreign exchange reserve holdings. China's foreign exchange reserves have increased by $200 billion this year to over $3 trillion and are mostly invested in U.S. dollars. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said this week that, "Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded our country's rational demand, and too much accumulation has caused excessive liquidity in our markets, adding to the pressure of the central bank's sterilization." In other words, China is likely to begin selling their U.S. dollar reserves and accumulating real assets like gold and silver with this money. The biggest ever rally in precious metals is just around the corner, which means the U.S. dollar's purchasing power is about to plummet.
 
NIA constantly receives emails asking us if Paul Ryan's proposed budget were to be implemented instead of Obama's, would the U.S. be able to prevent hyperinflation. The truth is, both Obama's budget and Ryan's budget would leave us with just about the same national debt five years from now. The constant battles between the Democrats supporting Obama's budget and the Republicans supporting Ryan's budget are simply being used to distract Americans from the real issue, the Federal Reserve's monetization of our debt and the record $1.4 trillion in excess reserves that are currently parked at the Fed.
 
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has just reached a record $2.65 trillion. However, excess reserves parked at the Fed are now rising even faster than the Fed's balance sheet. NIA believes that come later this year, the Federal Reserve is likely going to stop paying interest on excess reserves banks have parked at the Fed, in an effort to push this money into the economy. This high-powered money will multiply by as much as ten times as it circulates throughout the U.S. economy, increasing our money supply by $14 trillion. A rapid increase of our money supply by $14 trillion could potentially cause a run on the dollar, with the world rushing to dump their U.S. dollar reserves for just about any real asset they can get for them.
 
Inflation is beginning to spiral out of control even by the U.S. government's artificially low calculations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose in March by 2.68% over a year ago, compared to the February increase of 2.11% and the November increase of 1.1%. Year-over-year CPI increases have risen 144% since November as a direct result of the Fed's destructive policies, yet the Fed continues to say that inflation is not a problem. Even though inflation is now way above the Fed's informal inflation target of 1.5% to 2%, the Fed continues to ignore the CPI and only looks at core-CPI, which excludes food and energy and is mainly based off of rents. All gains in U.S. retail sales are now solely due to inflation and all U.S. economic growth is phony. Any temporary decline in the unemployment rate is only a result of the distortions caused by the Fed's printing of money.
 
Gold has just surpassed $1,500 per ounce and silver has now broken $45 per ounce. These latest movements in gold and silver prices indicate that there is a major risk of hyperinflation breaking out as soon as the second half of 2011. Average U.S. gas prices are now $3.84 per gallon and are rapidly approaching the all time high of $4.12 per gallon from June of 2008. Unlike 2008, there are no leveraged up hedge funds buying oil futures contracts today. Oil prices are rising as a direct result of the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing. Unless the Federal Reserve acts now to dramatically raise interest rates, $5 per gallon gas is possible by the end of 2011.
 
When gas prices reach $5 per gallon, there won't be a drop off in demand. It will only encourage the Federal Reserve to print more money so that Americans can afford $5 per gallon gas, which could push gas prices to $6 or $7 per gallon in 2012. Saudi Arabia is reducing oil production because they have to, their oil reserves have been overstated by 40% and they are past peak oil production. As bad as rising gas prices are for all Americans, they will be hurt by rising food prices even more. Inventories of gas are not as tight as food inventories, which are now at record lows for such agricultural commodities as corn. NIA has been warning about low agriculture inventories since its first documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation' and accurately predicted this past year's record rise in agricultural commodity prices in its October 30th, 2009, article "U.S. Inflation to Appear Next in Food and Agriculture".
 
NIA predicts the next major inflation crisis will be in college tuition prices. We are about to experience a record rise in student loan defaults as a result of rapidly rising food and gas prices. College tuitions are the one area of the U.S. economy, besides healthcare, that did not experience any decline during the financial crisis of 2008. Despite rapidly rising college tuition prices, the value of a college degree is declining at an even faster rate. NIA believes that by the year 2020, we will conservatively see 20% of American colleges and universities close its doors with enrollments in remaining colleges and universities declining by between 15% and 30%. NIA will expose the facts and truth about the upcoming American college education crisis in its upcoming documentary, 'College Conspiracy'. We are almost done producing 'College Conspiracy' and will be releasing more information about the hour long movie in the days and weeks to come.
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 25, 2011, 06:52:16 AM
Gold - $1,511.80 (USD), Silver - $48.02(USD) as I type.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 25, 2011, 07:24:47 AM
Gold - $1,511.80 (USD), Silver - $48.02(USD) as I type.

Brass

Its a bubble I tell, you,, LOOOL..

Note, price of silver is severly depressed, ..why? ...because in most (if not all) European countries there is a hefty 20% vat tax on the transaction of silver....so people dont sink their wealth into silver , because they would loose 20% buying and 20% when selling the stuff...

So that eliminates the entire European continent of investing in silver,.., so the demand /supply is severly distored.

No such restrictions on gold, but because people cannot invest in silver, gold gets distorted aswell (because people HAVE to choose gold) as this metal has no such taxes placed on them when trading.

I think this is all going to accelerate ...its easily going to hit 2000 before this years end

Cuffy,...when is the next batch of printing binge Quantitative easining (QE3? QE4?) scheduled

Oh,, Spain not doing so well.....I am pretty sure the Germans will say F-you when asked to bail out spain,,meaning investers will run to assets....Gold....precious metals etc.


Lets quote Greenspan on this (I mean, what the hell does he know right?)

"..Fiat money has no place to go but gold...."

Amen Greeny!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 25, 2011, 07:51:23 AM
Quote
Unless the Federal Reserve acts now to dramatically raise interest rates

ppl,.., lets say the fed raises interest rates by a meager 5%,...sound like not alot right?

So....5% on 14 trillion debt is like....0.05*(ok let me get the numbers of zeros right)  14.000.000.000.000

thats  700.000.000.000 (700 billion), a year interest (that is just interest) the government has to  pay.

Is there ANYONE in Washington who is going to make these kind of spending cuts? .....FORGET IT!

Declare bankruptcy and start over boys!!!!   Donald Trump is expert in that!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 25, 2011, 08:10:58 AM
Note, price of silver is severly depressed, ..why? ...because in most (if not all) European countries there is a hefty 20% vat tax on the transaction of silver....so people dont sink their wealth into silver , because they would loose 20% buying and 20% when selling the stuff...

I was thinking of buying scrap silver coin from the Canadian Mint here a few months ago but didn't. Think I'll buy some silver coins now. It's still affordable at $50. a coin (ounce) and although I can't invest enough to potentially get rich on (more along the lines of 'dabbling' really). I might be able to find enough cash lying around to pick up a tube or two and see what happens. :-\

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 25, 2011, 09:15:59 AM
Note, price of silver is severly depressed, ..why? ...because in most (if not all) European countries there is a hefty 20% vat tax on the transaction of silver....so people dont sink their wealth into silver , because they would loose 20% buying and 20% when selling the stuff...

I was thinking of buying scrap silver coin from the Canadian Mint here a few months ago but didn't. Think I'll buy some silver coins now. It's still affordable at $50. a coin (ounce) and although I can't invest enough to potentially get rich on (more along the lines of 'dabbling' really). I might be able to find enough cash lying around to pick up a tube or two and see what happens. :-\

Brass
Brass, I'm not an expert but I will share a couple of thoughts with you. Remember that you are seeing prices in the US dollar. Canadian dollar is also going to be rising (actually has been rising) in relation to the US dollar simply because the US dollar is being devalued. This is one of the biggest reasons you see the rise in gold prices. Silver, on the other hand has been artificially held down by the banks so it is now starting to catch up with the true market value. And according to some, silver should be about 10% the value of gold, which makes it still about a $100 undervalued.
It's important for you to keep in mind that if you do hold US dollars then by all means get rid of them and put that money into silver. But Canadian dollar is not being devalued so I'd be a bit more careful with that since you are not going to see as much PM appreciation as we have in the US.
And lastly you might want to wait till June 30th or so. There might be a temporary pull back in the market so if that happens you could get more for your buck.
Ed
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on April 25, 2011, 09:54:12 AM
I was thinking of buying scrap silver coin from the Canadian Mint here a few months ago but didn't. Think I'll buy some silver coins now. It's still affordable at $50. a coin (ounce) and although I can't invest enough to potentially get rich on (more along the lines of 'dabbling' really). I might be able to find enough cash lying around to pick up a tube or two and see what happens. :-\
Brass, I'm not an expert but I will share a couple of thoughts with you. Remember that you are seeing prices in the US dollar. Canadian dollar is also going to be rising (actually has been rising) in relation to the US dollar simply because the US dollar is being devalued. This is one of the biggest reasons you see the rise in gold prices. Silver, on the other hand has been artificially held down by the banks so it is now starting to catch up with the true market value. And according to some, silver should be about 10% the value of gold, which makes it still about a $100 undervalued.
It's important for you to keep in mind that if you do hold US dollars then by all means get rid of them and put that money into silver. But Canadian dollar is not being devalued so I'd be a bit more careful with that since you are not going to see as much PM appreciation as we have in the US.
And lastly you might want to wait till June 30th or so. There might be a temporary pull back in the market so if that happens you could get more for your buck.

All good points you've raised here Ed. I'll look it over. It will be CAD I'm buying in. :)

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on April 25, 2011, 01:07:33 PM
Be careful of the Canadian dollar if it gets to strong to the US dollar their economy will crash as Canada is very dependent on the USA economy.  USA does buy a ton of energy from Canada but other products will stop being purchased and thus create job losses. 

Weak dollar right now really helping job creation in the USA - only issue has been lack of qualified people in the USA for these jobs - thus the number of foreign work visas is really picking up right now.  It amazes me how many people in the USA really never got themselves prepared for global competition eventhough most colleges have been preaching this from the 1980's.  I guess a lot of people fall asleep in college.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on April 25, 2011, 01:11:41 PM
conclude - my reference to Obama has nothing to do with Republican or Democrats.  Maybe you should study reading comprehension.  I still laugh how you lied about the price you bought gold in the past.  So you think gold will go to 2,000 or 1,000 first - or do you like to comment after you know the result.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 26, 2011, 11:32:45 AM
Kievstar dont be a sore looser who cant admit he made bad trading bets,..,  I said 680 when I meant 860 (in 2008),..even if you had used your brain,..(and payed attention) you would have known the swap of 2 digits as I clearly mentioned the dates of purchase....second ..I even dug up one post in the past (I was the one starting this thread) where the correct buying price was stated.. So no backtracking on this one.

Anyway...Kievstar,..., whats worse is that your still drinking the Keynesian cool aid....... have fun, hope your wife will still love you when your assets are evaporated by holding worthless fiat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 26, 2011, 11:33:59 AM
For the record,...Gold will go to above 2000 without breaking a sweat!, You can frame this post for future reference, although it will not stop you playing denial games again!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 26, 2011, 12:26:21 PM
I find it hard to find a situation where the Canadian economy could "crash" any time soon - they have a built in pacific market for all of their commodities products (Oil, Mineral and Agricultural) in both China and India - so 2.5 Billion consumers in a society of ever expanding broad based affluence trumps a society riddled by debt and declining affluence (USA).

Canada has one of the most stable banking systems and avoided all of our Fed, Treasury and Wall Street Madoff investment vehicles scams (bookies slips really on CDO and CDS etc derivatives). 

And with the 9.0 Mega Quake in Japan and the subsequent supply chain disruption to Japan's US auto factories it would not be hard to argue a case for state of the art component factories in Canada where the costs per employee for healthcare are about half of the USA ($2500 vs $5000) with superior coverage - so even if the Canadian dollar increases to $2 for $1 against the US Dollar there are a lot of other Global markets for Canada instead of relying solely on the USA.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 26, 2011, 12:50:04 PM
Some people on this forum still think USA is engine of the world,.....,wake up call

Mercedes sells most of its S-klass cars to ....China....demand is so great, there is a waiting list...despite high euro

You cant offshore skilled labor...not easily anyway!  And I bet those Chinese wanting the gasoline to drive it.....driving oil prices even higher...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on April 26, 2011, 11:13:23 PM
JC,

The USA is still over 20% of the ENTIRE world market.

And yes, you CAN offshore skilled labor easily.

The USA sent around 100 MILLION jobs to China, India, and the rest of Asia.

The UN wanted to also send jobs from France, Germany, and the rest of the EU.  But, socialists were smarter in the EU than in USA.  so a trickle of jobs were outsourced from Europe.  The flood of jobs were lost in the USA.

And no one said thank you.

YW.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 27, 2011, 08:23:35 AM
For the record,...Gold will go to above 2000 without breaking a sweat!, You can frame this post for future reference, although it will not stop you playing denial games again!

JC, I gotta tell you,  I would like to believe that what you said is right.  But something inside of me is telling me to watch out.

Remember 2008.  It corrected over 30%.  Silver corrected over 60%.  It's what happens in a bull market.  Especially silver.  It's gold on steroids, or worse it's like dynamite. 

I believe that the test for silver is 50 bucks.  Test for gold is 2300 bucks.  Once it gets to that point (silver is already at a boiling point) we could see huge corrections.  Where we may see prices at 25-30 USD and 1000 USD.   Which is why no one should bet their entire farm on precious metals.   If there is a big correction at any of these two price ranges, we could be seeing a frozen market for 6 months to two years.   

This doesnt mean that the bull run is over.  (I don't have to sing hymns to the choir (you: JC) but I type this for the sake of other readers).  It's just normal that things like this happen in a bull market.

When all is said and done, I believe silver will be closer to 200 USD.  Gold will be god knows where, but if I had to pick a number, I'd say above 5000, maybe 7500.    (At this point, silver to gold ratio probably won't matter much for those of us that made money all the way long).

Anyway silver is probably in for a big correction.  Cyclical analysts say that the big (20-30% possible correction) correction period  is over but that doesnt mean much.   Market has a way of making people poor and it's unnatural that people have been making money off of PM the past 6 months.  Besides, the US government is a rabid angry dog.  It will bite anything or anyone without reason, give it a reason and you have an intelligent, rabid, angry and spiteful dog.   And needless to say, US goverment hates precious metals.   It will probably do its very best to beat up precious metal bugs.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 27, 2011, 07:15:13 PM
MissileMe.
I disagree with some of what you say and some of your terminology here. Making money on PM last 6 months? This bull run has been going on for years now. I don't think that "making money" is the right term here. Preserving your wealth would be more accurate. As it has been pointed out several times Gold price is a constant and is not really changing outside of daily fluctuations caused by the speculators. As Mike said, the price of a new, good suit paid for in gold was the same 400 years ago as it is now. The dollar is being devalued and gold is only rising in relation to the dollar. Yes, it did double since 2006 but so did many goods and food. That is your indicator that the dollar is being berried and people who made profit in the stock market didn't actually do any better than those who's been holding gold and silver.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 28, 2011, 12:14:20 AM
MissileMe.
I disagree with some of what you say and some of your terminology here. Making money on PM last 6 months? This bull run has been going on for years now. I don't think that "making money" is the right term here. Preserving your wealth would be more accurate. As it has been pointed out several times Gold price is a constant and is not really changing outside of daily fluctuations caused by the speculators. As Mike said, the price of a new, good suit paid for in gold was the same 400 years ago as it is now. The dollar is being devalued and gold is only rising in relation to the dollar. Yes, it did double since 2006 but so did many goods and food. That is your indicator that the dollar is being berried and people who made profit in the stock market didn't actually do any better than those who's been holding gold and silver.

Sorry, I worded it wrong.  Silver, not PM has been making people a lot of money in the last 6 months.  The meteoric rise in price of silver could be the beginning of the mania phase.  When major news networks start talking about silver and how some "specialists" whom I have never heard of are starting to talk about the potential of silver to rise to 2000 USD, I believe it's no longer just an investment. 

Sure relative to all things, the price of gold is stable.  it is the fiat currency losing value to the stable gold.  It has always through out time bought you a nice suit and a pair of shoes, even going back to the Roman times when they wore togas at parties .  Anyone who knows anything about gold probably knows this.   But when you consider the price of silver in the last 6 months, (esp the last 3 months) without correction, it is a speculation. Which is why most investment research companies are now advising to grab profits in the silver.  Retracement of silver could be as low as 35.29.    In fact two famous research groups are saying short Silver Wheaton. 

The PM bull market is in the 10th year.  Gold has gone up year to end price 10 years in a row.  That does not mean that at some points of the 10 year, there was not speculation.    Silver is in a speculation mode to all the late comers.  Sure for the guys that have been in it for the last 8 years or so, it's not a speculation.  But the past 3 months have been unreal.  In fact I am getting news that there is someone / some entity trying to corner the silver market right this moment. 

I hope you get what I mean.  A 10year bull run doesnt mean that there's no speculation going on at certain points in the time line.   Speculators are a different breed than people like you, JC, or myself.   They are more like day traders.  And believe me, there are a hell of a lot of them in the world.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 28, 2011, 09:01:39 AM
4/25 Silver Update by NIA:

Silver reached a new all time high this morning of $49.79 per ounce up 186% since NIA declared silver the best investment for the next decade on December 11th, 2009, at $17.40 per ounce!
 
NIA first predicted a huge silver short squeeze in its April 3rd, 2010, article entitled, "Silver Short Squeeze Could Be Imminent". NIA said in this article, "Silver closed this week at a 10-week high of $17.89 per ounce and a major short squeeze to the upside could be imminent. With the spotlight now on JP Morgan, NIA believes they will be less likely to naked short silver at these levels and manipulate the price down like in February."
 
On May 13th, 2010, NIA released its critically acclaimed hour long documentary 'Meltup'. Beginning at 26:30 into the movie, NIA had a six minute segment dedicated exclusively to silver in which NIA's President Gerard Adams exposed JP Morgan's manipulation of silver. Silver was $18 per ounce at the time and NIA predicted a massive silver short squeeze saying that silver could rise to $72 per ounce as soon as JP Morgan's manipulation is over. We are more than half way there already!
 
NIA perfectly called the short-term bottom on silver in its July 28th, 2010, article entitled, "Gold and Silver Capitulation is Near". Silver was $17.63 at the time and almost everybody on Wall Street and in the media had become bearish on silver. NIA said in its article, "The sentiment on gold and silver has abruptly changed to the negative like nothing we have ever seen before and to us this means the big move to the upside is right around the corner." After NIA published this article, silver prices rose on 70 out of the following 101 trading days.
 
On September 9th, 2010, NIA wrote an article entitled, "Is JP Morgan's Silver Manipulation Over?". The gold/silver ratio was 63 at the time and NIA said, "the biggest move downward in the gold/silver ratio could come in the months ahead." NIA was right, the gold/silver ratio reached a low today of 30.5!
 
Then came NIA's October 28th, 2010, article entitled, "Silver Short Position Could Cost JP Morgan Billions in Losses". In this article, NIA wrote, "NIA estimates that $50 per ounce silver would mean approximately $4 billion in losses to JP Morgan." Guess who is now losing approximately $4 billion while NIA members make a fortune?
 
NIA gave the world the first heads up that JP Morgan was beginning to cover their silver short position when we published our December 14th, 2010, article entitled, "JP Morgan Covering Silver Short Position".
 
The massive short squeeze in silver that NIA has long been predicting is clearly taking place right now! NIA estimates that JP Morgan has so far only covered about 20% of its silver short position. Silver still has a lot more upside potential left, especially for the long-term!
 
NIA believes the best way to get wealthy off of silver and gold this decade will be with silver and gold mining stocks. Despite silver and gold being at new all time highs, most silver and gold mining stocks are still below their 52-week highs. NIA believes the largest ever short-term rally in both silver and gold stocks could be just around the corner!
 
Tomorrow morning, NIA will be releasing one of our biggest silver stock suggestions of all time in an exclusive private stock suggestion report to a select few NIA members. NIA will also be suggesting two gold stocks that we believe are the most undervalued gold stocks in the world today. If you would like to receive this exclusive private report, please visit: http://inflation.us/specialgoldsilverreport.html and enter your email address.
 
NIA members interested in our exclusive private silver and gold stock suggestion report will be contacted this evening with all of the details on how to receive it!
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

Another separate newsletters' summary:

The precious metals bull market will not come close to topping out until the majority of the public owns them aggressively as an investment. Where’s that percentage now for individual investors? Less than 2%.
 
Where’s that percentage now for China, as it relates to the Chinese governments foreign reserves? Less than .75%.   
 
If China were to simply double their holdings to 1.5%, gold and silver would both triple in price overnight…assuming all other buyers simply stood by and watched it happen.
 
The smart money all over the world knows that these incredible moves in gold and silver are telling us something of the utmost importance. Maybe not everyone has figured out exactly what that message is, but in the months and years to come it will be all too clear to all; we have entered a hyperinflationary Great Depression that will ultimately claim fiat money and sovereign debt as its primary victims.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on April 28, 2011, 09:13:48 AM
Missile,
About silver: Silver has been artificially kept undervalued for years by the banks. They simply couldn't control it's price any longer and now it's catching up. Some say that silver should be at 10% of the price of gold, which would put it's fair market price at around $150 per ounce. So we still have a $100 to go just to get to where it "should be". Surely if you are day trading PMs then you might wanna short it because there might be a pullback around June 30th. But for people who are in it long term my feeling is that by next year will see gold at $2000 and silver at $150 to $200 an ounce. Off course the government might try to get it's cut by imposing taxes on PM or confiscate PM all together like they did in the 1930s. I just pray that this Obamination of government is gone in 2012 so we would still have a chance to get on the road to recovery. But things are not looking very optimistic.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on April 28, 2011, 09:19:38 AM
Ed,

You will have to explain how banks control the price of a commodity they do not produce?

Are they dumping silver on the market?  That would not be wise if the true support level is $150, would it?

wayne
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on April 28, 2011, 09:26:58 AM
Just added to my "gold stash" yesterday.

Bought a US 2006 $50 Buffalo MS70 First Strike for about $1725

Has value for the gold AND as a collectable.  Most coin dealers are charging about $125 more for the exact same quality of coin.  Good deal?  Perhaps.  Only time will tell.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 28, 2011, 09:51:57 AM
Today's Cold Dose of Reality to counter all the Obama Fed's "Unicorns & Rainbows" hopey changey fluff:  At this rate really can't see how Obummer can be more than a One Termer...

Food and Energy Inflation is Not Transitory

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday held his first press conference in history. The press conference took place shortly after the Fed announced its decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate at a record low of 0% to 0.25%, where it has been for an unprecedented 28 months. The U.S. economy is flooded with U.S. dollars and is close to overdosing on excess liquidity. The fact that our financial markets are not falling on the possibility of the Fed not unleashing QE3 immediately at the end of QE2, shows that we could be on the verge of hyperinflation with or without QE3.
 
The Federal Reserve currently has a mandate of both maintaining price stability and facilitating job creation. However, central banks don't have the ability to create real employment. If any jobs happen to be created as a result of a central bank's policies, they are only temporary jobs created due to the errors and distortions of phony asset bubbles. All phony asset bubbles that are fueled by monetary inflation eventually burst, sending unemployment through the roof.
 
Almost every major central bank besides the Federal Reserve, understands the truth about job creation, and has a mandate that focuses solely on keeping price inflation low. The Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of New Zealand, all have mandates that are entirely about low inflation and don't even mention the creation of jobs or the rate of employment. Bernanke said on Wednesday that, "while it is very, very important for us to try to help the economy create jobs and to support the recovery, I think every central banker understands that keeping inflation low and stable is absolutely essential to a successful economy."
 
Bernanke has decided to go down a route that no central banker has ever gone before. Bernanke has literally invented countless ways to create inflation that nobody else has ever thought of. If keeping inflation low was ever Bernanke's slightest concern, the Fed Funds Rate would currently be north of 5% and the U.S. economy would be in a steep recession. Bernanke has never once thought about keeping inflation low. He has literally implemented every measure he could possibly think of to create as much inflation as possible, while outright lying to the American public and saying that he isn't printing money and that inflation is under control.
 
Bernanke would like the public to believe that his policies of expanding the money supply through cheap and easy money will cause the U.S. economy to recover and unemployment to decline back to pre-crisis levels, and that right before price inflation spirals out of control, he can raise interest rates and prevent massive price inflation without disrupting the recovery. Unfortunately, this is impossible because the recovery isn't real and massive price inflation is already here. Bernanke's policies may have created 1 million artificial jobs since December of 2009, after 8.75 million jobs were lost in the previous two years, but he did this at the expense of 310 million Americans already seeing double-digit percentage increases in food and energy prices.
 
Since after the Real Estate bubble burst in late-2008, the primary economic concern of Americans has been finding a stable job in order to make mortgage payments and put food on the table. Under the pressure of Congress, the Fed printed enough money to prevent a much needed recession that would be healthy for the long-term U.S. economy. In its attempt to reinflate the Real Estate bubble, the Fed has been destroying the free market and creating new economic distortions, which caused an artificial bounce in the rate of employment. Unfortunately, when you add together the money the Fed has either printed or committed for bailouts and stimulus programs, over $4 million has been spent for each job created. The Fed would have been better off just crediting the bank accounts of unemployed Americans with the average U.S. income.
 
When asked about rising gas prices, NIA is very happy that Chairman Bernanke acknowledged that gas prices "have risen quite significantly" and are "creating a great deal of financial hardship for a lot of people". Bernanke admitted that gas is a "necessity" as "people need to drive to work" for the artificial jobs Bernanke created at a cost of $4 million per job. However, Bernanke seemed to be confused when he said "higher gas prices add to inflation". The truth is, Bernanke's zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing are the inflation, and inflation leads to higher gas prices.
 

Bernanke is directly responsible for gas prices rising back to $3.87 per gallon, yet refuses to admit it. Bernanke placed the blame on the growing global and emerging market economies, and their strong demand for oil. He said that America's demand for oil is going down, which NIA believes is actually due to the U.S. dollar losing its purchasing power and Americans seeing their standard of living decline. Bernanke said there is nothing that he can do about rising oil and gas prices "without derailing growth entirely". The truth is, Bernanke already derailed growth entirely when he derailed the free market. It is impossible to see real economic growth when a government and central bank is interfering in every aspect of the economy and impeding the free market in every possible way. All nominal GDP growth in the U.S., along with growth in retail sales, is solely due to inflation. Even when the government adjusts GDP and retail sales growth to the rate of inflation, it is based off of the consumer price index, which NIA believes is currently understating price inflation by approximately 4%.
 
Although Bernanke denies he has the ability to reduce gas prices, he claims he can prevent "gas prices from passing into other prices and wages throughout the economy and creating a broader inflation which will be much more difficult to extinguish." Bernanke obviously doesn't want Americans to see higher wages because he believes it could lead to broader inflation, but NIA believes rising wages would be a good thing. Inflation hurts Americans most when the rate of inflation is far outpacing wage increases. The fact is, the U.S. is already experiencing broad inflation even without wage increases.
 
Bernanke's brand new favorite word as of late seems to be "transitory", which he used about a dozen times during his press conference. Despite what Bernanke says, NIA strongly believes that rising food and gas prices are not transitory. Bernanke likes the word "transitory" because he can use it to try and pretend that rising food and gas prices are only just a temporary phenomenon and that their current high levels aren't here to stay. Many Americans can remember the day 40 years ago when a can of Coca-Cola cost a dime and a Hershey chocolate bar cost a nickel, with a gallon of gas back then costing only thirty-five cents. Have rising food and gas prices over the past four decades been transitory?
 
NIA first predicted two years ago in its documentary 'Hyperinflation Nation', that rising food and gas prices would soon become the primary concern of all American citizens as a result of the Fed's dangerous and destructive monetary policies. Bernanke back then claimed that inflation would not be a problem and said that the U.S. risked deflation. If Bernanke has been so wrong about the inflation that Americans are faced with today, NIA doesn't see how anybody can possibly believe that Bernanke will be right and that current high food and gas prices aren't here to stay. In our opinion, the food and gas price inflation that Americans have experienced over the past 40 years, is likely to occur all over again during the next 4 years. NIA believes that 4 years from now, Americans will look back at the good old days of having cheap $4 a gallon gas.
 
The last thing the U.S. government wants is for the American public to realize that Bernanke is responsible for rising food and gas prices. If the public demanded to end the Federal Reserve, the government will no longer be able to spend recklessly knowing that the Fed will be there to monetize their deficit spending. In an attempt to make up excuses for rising gas prices and deflect attention away from the Fed, Congress has been pressuring the U.S. Attorney General to investigate the matter. Attorney General Eric Holder just announced the formation of the Oil & Gas Price Fraud Working Group. The stated purpose of this working group is to monitor the oil and gas markets for potential violations of criminal or civil laws to safeguard against unlawful consumer harm.
 
NIA considers this to be complete insanity. Any government interference in the oil markets will only drive oil prices up even higher. Oil prices are rising solely do to supply and demand. Demand is going through the roof because the Federal Reserve is creating a lot of inflation, and inflation always gravitates to the goods that Americans need the most to live and survive. Oil supplies are falling because President Obama has ordered U.S. troops to occupy Libya. In the past we at least made up excuses to invade countries like Iraq over oil by claiming they had weapons of mass destruction. Today, the U.S. government doesn't even bother. Obama campaigned as an anti-war President, saying he would bring our troops home from the middle-east. Instead, he has increased our middle-east troop levels, and the sheep who voted for him are showing absolutely no signs of outrage.
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us

In summary if 4 years from now $4 Gallon gasoline is considered cheap then Gold and Silver not going to collapse any time soon.  Only hope for the USA is for the Congressman Ryan Deficit Reduction and National Debt elimination plan to be enacted as soon as possible - Obama liberals will have none of it so will be a very interesting 2012 campaign.  Stakes for the economic future of the USA are enormous.  As Trump indicates we can keep spending like we are on a drunken bankruptcy party the liberals way, we can cut the entire social safety net and leave the elderly and sick to beg in the streets the scroogepublicans way - or we can actually charge for the global Pax Americana costs for the biggest free global defense welfare services giveaway in history - meaning the free defense of most of the rest of the world.  The USA pulled back to a support and intelligence roll in Libya and the vaunted remainder of the NATO forces can't even muster the political will to get rid of Wackodaffy a two bit third world nut job.  Time for everyone to pay to play.  Throughout human history good security always cost good money and if you have no security you loose your money.  Time for a hard nosed businessman willing to negotiate from the USAs true strength rather than contribute to a growing perception of weakness.  $5 plus per gallon gasoline will guarantee that the liberal PC voices of insanity will be drowned out by the cold hard facts of reality in the uber liberal US major media networks.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 28, 2011, 11:06:43 AM
Cufflinks, as far as China goes, we don't know how much gold they have.  They mine their own land and keep it all secret.  Infact they are advising their own people to buy gold and silver on tv and newspaper.  This is a a very important piece of information.

Just think of it this way.  A socialist country can do anything it wants to do.  China does what it wants to do to their own people.  They can confiscate all the gold the people have amassed.  This would bump up their reserve by god knows how much.  If this doesnt irk everyone, I don't know what does.   Just imagine, overnight their reserve goes up 20,30,40 percent.   They would have so much leverage over the other nations, it would be like winning World War 3 without any war. 

Eduard, I totally agree with you about the silver market.  It is manipulated. Naked short selling is rampant.   By ratio standard, it should be 16 to 1.  Breaking the 40 barrier is a big event and many analysts say that gold will climb higher than silver over the next few months and try to go back to the 40 to 1 ratio.  This is all just speculation though.  But because it is a manipulated market,  it's hard to say where it is actually going.  Eric Sprott says it will hit single digit ratio.  That's to be seen in the future, but for now I believe it is wise to just concentrate on 50 dollars and June 30th.

Government doesnt have to confiscate anything actually.  But they can impose a tax on all silver and gold  that's monetized through the bank.  Say..... 50% tax.  They might make black market trading of silver and gold illegal though.   I figure by 2013, they will make carrying PM overseas without authorization illegal.  Another thing they could do to bust the bubble is to make the ETFs show their physical holdings.  I doubt the ETF has much physical so that would crush the price of PM.  (obviously bank and street price would differ if US was in such turmoil that martial law was declared due to economic collapse.)

As far as 2012 presidential race goes, I doubt it will make any difference.   All crooks in my eyes. All hell bent on destroying wealth all around the world, doesnt matter if you are white, yellow, black, green, or red.  Everyone is going to suffer in the next few years.  If you just take the deficit, Kenyan Obama is much worse than noxious weed Bush.   But then again it all looks like they're working for the same bad guys.  Rockerfellers or Rothchilds, what's the difference,  never met them, never will,  all they care is making a killing off of us, the entire world.  (No pun intended)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on April 28, 2011, 11:21:02 AM
Just added to my "gold stash" yesterday.

Bought a US 2006 $50 Buffalo MS70 First Strike for about $1725

Has value for the gold AND as a collectable.  Most coin dealers are charging about $125 more for the exact same quality of coin.  Good deal?  Perhaps.  Only time will tell.


Go to davidhall.com.  They are one of the biggest authorities on rare coins.  Very competitive pricing and one of the best service available.  Doug Casey recommends it . 
If you have never heard of David Halll, Van Simmons, Doug Casey, you better start reading more on this topic.

BTW,  rare coins are still in the 80's -90s price range.  It is one hell of a bargain if you know what you are looking for.  The rare ones have humongous potential when SHTF. If anyone has over 200,000 USD worth of gold, I suggest starting to look into the rare coin market. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 28, 2011, 11:44:49 AM
Quote
The UN wanted to also send jobs from France, Germany, and the rest of the EU.  But, socialists were smarter in the EU than in USA.  so a trickle of jobs were outsourced from Europe.  The flood of jobs were lost in the USA.

And no one said thank you.

YW.

Thank you? why ?  did some get something for free?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 28, 2011, 11:54:42 AM
Quote
Throughout human history good security always cost good money and if you have no security you loose your money.

Sounds like Don Corleone selling security......,weird things might happen if you dont buy his policy))))

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 28, 2011, 01:02:02 PM
Quote
Throughout human history good security always cost good money and if you have no security you loose your money.

Sounds like Don Corleone selling security......,weird things might happen if you dont buy his policy))))

LOL - WTF JC you never met me - I might resemble that remark!  :smokin:

If the shoe fits...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 28, 2011, 01:06:04 PM
Today's update newsletter from the Sovereign Society Offshore Conference in Panama City, Panama:

Think about it…

The dollar has been plummeting in value – not for a month or two – but 40 years.

Even worse, as Sean noted:

    • Our national debt is increasing by $4,000,000,000 a day.
    • 0% interest rates are pummeling savers.
    • And there’s no end in sight.

That’s why it’s so important you keep a portion of your wealth in foreign currencies that pay higher yields… offer strong opportunities for growth… and help you retain (or even gain) purchasing power.

And it’s easier than you think.

Right now… Americans are earning anemic 0.25% to 1% yields on their cash. But the truth is, you could lock in a rate as high as 6.14% on a conservative foreign currency CD.

And that’s just one of five, income-multiplying strategies Sean unveiled on the first day of the Total Wealth Symposium
New World Reserve Currency Announced
Investors Fleeing to Bullion; Foreign Stocks

Don’t look now… but that “strong dollar” is losing altitude, fast.

Just ask our Investment Director, Jeff Opdyke:

“The Dollar is no longer the world reserve currency – despite what the government says.”

So what’s going to replace it?

Gold.

That’s why savvy investors are diversifying their paper wealth into real, hold-in-your-hand bullion. (No wonder it just hit a record $1,522 an ounce.)

What if you already own gold?


Jeff also identified two of his favorite anti-dollar plays for the months ahead.

Play #1: The Easiest Way to Play Frontier Markets

People tend to think of “frontier markets” as risky – but the truth is, they can insulate your portfolio from a falling dollar – and give you exposure to booming growth overseas.

In short, these economies are expanding 3 to 5 times faster than the United States or Europe. They’ve got some of the youngest, most vibrant populations in the world… and they’re rapidly achieving “middle class” status.

The good news is, you don’t need to open up brokerage accounts all over the world to get in on this incredible growth story. Instead, you can simply buy the Templeton Frontier Markets Fund (ticker: TFMAX). Jeff says, this is one you can lock up – and forget about for 10 years.

Play #2: Betting on Natural Gas

Nat Gas is one of the most unloved commodities on earth. It’s incredibly… laughably cheap thanks to abundant supplies in the U.S.

But therein lies an investment opportunity.

You see, right now, the rest of the world is hungry for this clean-burning fuel. But the problem is – the U.S. has very few export terminals. And that’s what makes Jeff’s latest find so exciting.

Jeff has identified a tiny company that’s lined up contracts with seven global giants, including a major Chinese importer. And it’s about to make a fortune by becoming one of the few firms that can export natural gas out of the United States.

Right now, it’s trading between $8 to $9 a share. But I can’t reveal its ticker symbol here. That wouldn’t be fair to the 400-or-so folks who are attending the Total Wealth Symposium. But if you grab a copy of our Audio CDs before Wednesday… you can be among the first to hear about it.

Tell you what…

The buzz here in Panama is contagious. (And I'm NOT talking about the free-flowing Tequila.) There is a feeling of energy and purpose in the air. Everyone seems to be excited and focused.

And we’re just getting started!

This afternoon, I’ll fill you in on our next pair of speakers… who should prove to be very popular: Bob Bauman and Eric Roseman.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 28, 2011, 01:47:07 PM
Quote
Throughout human history good security always cost good money and if you have no security you loose your money.

Sounds like Don Corleone selling security......,weird things might happen if you dont buy his policy))))

LOL - WTF JC you never met me - I might resemble that remark!  :smokin:

If the shoe fits...

Cuff you aint president not commander in chief,...,we dont get to see what kind of wheeling and dealing goes on behind the scene.

"Give us free oil, or else"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 28, 2011, 01:53:12 PM
LOL - at $5 a gallon for gasoline and $5 for a loaf of multi-grain bread - the only wheeling and dealing is Obama sucking up to Mark Zuckerberg and his 19 Million Facebook :money: friends for 2012 campaign donations!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 28, 2011, 02:05:04 PM
LOL - at $5 a gallon for gasoline and $5 for a loaf of multi-grain bread - the only wheeling and dealing is Obama sucking up to Mark Zuckerberg and his 19 Million Facebook :money: friends for 2012 campaign donations!

The Money Bomb thing is a Ron Paul trademark,..,now...since identity politics is a big thing in the US...there might be some ethnocentrist wanting to give him a dime or two....I hardly think that will happen, coz the same people who held their hand up all those years are not big donors,....,its just not their thing to give.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 28, 2011, 02:07:29 PM
Quote
Even worse, as Sean noted:

    • Our national debt is increasing by $4,000,000,000 a day.
    • 0% interest rates are pummeling savers.
    • And there’s no end in sight.

Have you seen Obama's 2012 budget?
 :sick0012:   :D
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on April 29, 2011, 01:49:03 PM
Today's installment from the Sovereign Society Offshore Conference in Panama City Panama:

Just in case you have too much Gold or Silver:

How about Norway, Australia, Zurich Insurance and Colored Diamonds - decisions - decisions!

Dear Mike,

How much money do you print a day?

Last year, it was about $700,000 – but this year the Federal Reserve asked us for $1 billion.

$1 billion a DAY?

That’s right. We’ve got 2,500 employees working ‘round the clock – 24 hours – just to keep up.

Last week I took a tour of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing – a.k.a. the U.S. Money Factory in Washington DC.

When you stand there and watch a million bucks appear out of thin air… in less time than it takes to burn toast… it makes you think.

Why would anyone trade decades of hard work for a currency that’s bleeding value by the day?

Your guess is good as mine…

But as the Sovereign Society Total Wealth Symposium rolls into Day two… we’re swimming in solutions to protect your wealth from a collapse of the dollar.

(Hint: None of this morning’s recommendations involved gold or silver bullion.)

So let’s get to it…


Warning: Currency Regime Change, Dead Ahead
This morning, Chris Gaffney of Everbank reminded us how urgent it is to move your wealth out of the greenback.

“50% of Americans have no retirement savings… the other 50% has $35,000 on average. And as bad as that sounds… it looks great when you compare it to the U.S. government’s finances.”

So what’s the best escape route?

According to Chris, the strongest currency – by far – is the Norwegian krone.

Why Norway?

This country remains rich in oil… at a time when the price of black-gold is spiraling higher. They’re also chock full of resources like hydropower, fish, timber and minerals.

But more important, Norway is one of just two countries that sports twin surpluses – positive trade and budget balances.

For full details on the top foreign currencies to hold today – including how to hold them in your IRA… grab a copy of the audio CDs from our Total Wealth Symposium.

Vrijhof: Buy This Stock With Both Hands

One of our favorite Swiss asset managers – Robert Vrijhof of WHVP – was back with a slew of recommendations.

What’s on Rob’s mind this year?

“If you have a strong stomach, silver is still the place to be.”

But if you’ve already loaded up on silver… or hesitant to buy in at these levels… Rob isolated several best-bets for 2011, including:

AAA-rated Australian bonds that yield 5.7%...

• The ONLY Swiss stock you should buy with both hands… Zurich insurance… It’s paying a 6% dividend and has major upside potential.

• The #1 gold miner that Rob is accumulating for his clients right now.

• A Canadian silver miner that’s trading 14% off its all-time high… pulling white metal out of the ground for $7.25 an ounce… and selling it for $45+.

So Many Speakers… So Little Time
Tell you what… there isn’t enough Red Bull in Panama for me to catch and type up every tactic, every solution and gold nugget.

• Thomas Fischer, of Jyske Global Asset Management, shared his favorite oil play, Statoil (ticker: STO). This company gives you exposure to the soaring Norwegian krona… rising oil prices… and pays a 4% dividend.

• Marc Sola showed us an unusual form of insurance-on-steroids… that can help you access offshore investments that are normally forbidden to Americans… without breaking the law (or even breaking a sweat).

• Stephen Hofer from Pastor Geneve dazzled us with rare-colored diamonds… the ultimate form of portable wealth.

• And that was just a handful of morning sessions… We’ve got a whole afternoon to go!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on April 30, 2011, 12:02:02 PM
now, amittingly; i dont know who the Sovereign Society Offshore Conference is; and i do agree that both gold and silver are going higher; but any group that the US dollar is over; i have to disagree with.

i've mentioned it before; but the guy i'm following is at the 8th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in la jolla, ca.; that  line up includes Marc Faber, Martin Barnes, David Harding, Neil Howe, Paul McCulley, John Paulson, David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, John Mauldin.

it may be 2 years, it maybe 5; but gold and especially silver will crash hard
his blog: http://www.streettalkadvisors.com/financial-blog

the US just pulls too much of the world economically. even california in as sad of shape as it is; it still has a bigger economy than china and thats not going to change.

even in the boom-boom 90's, the US still increased its deficit 42% during the decade when it typically has done that by over 100% every decade.

if all these crazy tea partiers can hold that to a 25% increase in the next 10 years and enact some of the reforms like those gingrich congress did; i excpect the US will take off, the rest of the world will follow and gold and silver would be bad places to be.

until that starts up, i follow the charts, 50 and 200 moving average and as long as the FED keeps shoveling money in the markets; its going to go up; although les and less ad the law of diminishing returns applies.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on April 30, 2011, 12:21:26 PM
Quote
the US just pulls too much of the world economically.

I think you missed this newsflash

http://biggovernment.com/publius/2011/04/25/chinas-economy-to-surpass-u-s-economy-in-5-years/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 03, 2011, 09:51:31 PM
NIAs Cold wet Slap in the Face - needless to say they do not see the price of Gold Dropping any time soon... just the opposite:

Osama Bin Laden to Cause U.S. Hyperinflation
 
NIA is very pleased that Osama Bin Laden has been neutralized and is no longer a threat to American citizens. During a White House press event yesterday, counterterrorism adviser John Brennan was answering reporters questions and made the comment that al Qaeda "is becoming increasingly bankrupt". Unfortunately, Mr. Brennan got this backwards. The United States is becoming increasingly bankrupt as a result of al Qaeda.
 
Although America has been safe since 9/11, we need to look at what the cost has been. The U.S. military is currently spending just as much as all other militaries around the world combined. If the U.S. experiences hyperinflation as a result of our military spending, we will no longer be able to protect ourselves from terrorism in the future. The U.S. is currently spending about $1 trillion annually on maintaining a military empire around the world. This is unsustainable, as we are relying on borrowing and printing money to fund this, and Americans are now paying the price with massive inflation in food and energy prices.
 
The U.S. military captured Bin Laden in Pakistan using a special team comprised of about two dozen navy seals. In other words, the trillions we have spent fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were all for nothing. We could have captured Bin Laden without our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and have much smaller annual budget deficits and a much lower national debt today, with a much stronger U.S. dollar.
 
NIA believes that with the capture of Bin Laden, now is the time to bring our troops home from Afghanistan. There is also no reason for the U.S. to be supporting the war in Libya, when Libya presents no threat to the U.S. In recent U.S. led NATO strikes in Libya, we killed Muammar Gadhafi's son and several of his grandchildren who were under the age of 12. There was absolutely no reason for us to take the lives of Gadhafi's innocent young grandchildren. Yes, Libya did kill some of their own citizens who were protesting the government, but it is possible that U.S. led NATO forces have now killed more innocent civilians in Libya than the Libyan government. Syria has been killing a lot more anti-government protesters than Libya. If our military is currently occupying Libya, it only makes sense for the U.S. military to invade Syria as well, but NIA believes there is no reason for us to attack either. We can't police the entire world when we simply don't collect enough tax revenues to fund it.
 
We hate to say it, but if the U.S. experiences hyperinflation within the next few years, it will be what Bin Laden wanted. If the incomes and savings of Americans no longer have enough purchasing power to put food on the table and heat homes, many more Americans will die from hyperinflation than were killed on 9/11. Yes, we finally got him, but we had to borrow and print trillions of dollars over nearly a decade and there are no signs of our military spending slowing down. The success of killing Bin Laden could potentially be used as an excuse to increase military spending to all new record highs. The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar is crashing to new all time lows on a daily basis. This is not an "orderly" collapse. The dollar is falling off of a cliff and a worldwide rush out of the dollar could be imminent. A weak U.S. dollar as a result of our massive budget deficits, largely from military spending, is the worst possible thing for the homeland security of our country.
 
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 04, 2011, 12:58:41 AM
I didnt know Osama was in control of the money printing press, I  thought it was that other guy,...,Obama.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 04, 2011, 05:41:42 PM
Quote
the US just pulls too much of the world economically.

I think you missed this newsflash

http://biggovernment.com/publius/2011/04/25/chinas-economy-to-surpass-u-s-economy-in-5-years/

i'm taking any and all bets on this. i will be taking the side of china not surpassing the US in 5 years and taking your money in 2016.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 07, 2011, 06:31:35 PM
Very Sobering video a must listen to:

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1103PSIEOAVD/PPSIM449/PR
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on May 07, 2011, 08:11:15 PM
If any one thinking of getting into silver right now is the time. This currant pull back is caused by the Fed pushing the price down, plus people like Soros took some profits. They will be buying back into it at todays prices though. Word is, depression is almost eminent as well as hyperinflation. Your dollars will loose lots of value by the end of this year so if you are thinking that you are doing great on the stock market see how you did after you deduct the capital gains tax along with another 30% dollar devaluation by the end of this year.
This is just my opinion though.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: nixhound on May 07, 2011, 09:34:23 PM
Another reason for the silver pullback was the the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (owner of the CME and NYMEX) drastically increased the margin requirements for Silver Futures contracts. This gave traders two options 1) add more cash to cover the new margin requirements or 2) sell some of their holdings to cover the margin requirements.  Many chose option 2, and if you add that in with the news that Soros and a few hedge funds were selling (as mentioned by Ed) you had the recipe for a bloodbath this past week in the commodities markets.   

I shorted silver Monday afternoon through a leveraged ETF,  and made out well due to frantic selling.  I would be careful in the commodities markets, there is going to be a lot of volatility moving forward. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 08, 2011, 03:38:51 AM
If any one thinking of getting into silver right now is the time. This currant pull back is caused by the Fed pushing the price down, plus people like Soros took some profits. They will be buying back into it at todays prices though. Word is, depression is almost eminent as well as hyperinflation. Your dollars will loose lots of value by the end of this year so if you are thinking that you are doing great on the stock market see how you did after you deduct the capital gains tax along with another 30% dollar devaluation by the end of this year.
This is just my opinion though.

Eduard,

Gold is more for people wanting to park large savings,..,most of the time these people tend to be more aware of the economic situation (as a general rule)..Silver provides liquidity (as in paying for groceries etc) so when John Doe starts to wise up on the economic situation you will see Silver rise aswell.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 08, 2011, 03:55:12 PM
If any one thinking of getting into silver right now is the time. This currant pull back is caused by the Fed pushing the price down, plus people like Soros took some profits. They will be buying back into it at todays prices though. Word is, depression is almost eminent as well as hyperinflation. Your dollars will loose lots of value by the end of this year so if you are thinking that you are doing great on the stock market see how you did after you deduct the capital gains tax along with another 30% dollar devaluation by the end of this year.
This is just my opinion though.

thats not correct. in order to have hyperinflation, you need bascially 3 things. 1 - commody inflation(check),  velocity of money and wage growth; the US does not have the last two. now, the FED is putting a lot of money into use; but its just going back and forth between finiancial institutions; main street isnt getting it or trying to use it.

now, short term to mid term, next 6 months; the dollar should actually rally as people move out of stocks and thats going to hurt silver and gold; but the FED hasnt shown anything to expect they wont do a QE3 in the fall which will prop up everything again.

in the long term, 2 to 10 years; the US may go thru another market meltdown and certainly at least one more recession; but a depression or the dollar going down for the count just isnt going to happen. as bad as the dollar is; its still the best around and no one is going to knock it off the top no matter what some may say.

short term, i'm staying in cash becasue i mostly dont have the time and knowledge to play the bond and money mkts, but i'm betting a summer selloff and then QE3 with the normal fall strong period to be good for stocks and will look to buy again then.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on May 08, 2011, 05:12:54 PM
I guess we'll find out soon enough. I wish you were right, Lee
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on May 08, 2011, 06:52:50 PM
If any one thinking of getting into silver right now is the time. This currant pull back is caused by the Fed pushing the price down, plus people like Soros took some profits. They will be buying back into it at todays prices though. Word is, depression is almost eminent as well as hyperinflation. Your dollars will loose lots of value by the end of this year so if you are thinking that you are doing great on the stock market see how you did after you deduct the capital gains tax along with another 30% dollar devaluation by the end of this year.
This is just my opinion though.

thats not correct. in order to have hyperinflation, you need bascially 3 things. 1 - commody inflation(check),  velocity of money and wage growth; the US does not have the last two. now, the FED is putting a lot of money into use; but its just going back and forth between finiancial institutions; main street isnt getting it or trying to use it.

now, short term to mid term, next 6 months; the dollar should actually rally as people move out of stocks and thats going to hurt silver and gold; but the FED hasnt shown anything to expect they wont do a QE3 in the fall which will prop up everything again.

in the long term, 2 to 10 years; the US may go thru another market meltdown and certainly at least one more recession; but a depression or the dollar going down for the count just isnt going to happen. as bad as the dollar is; its still the best around and no one is going to knock it off the top no matter what some may say.

short term, i'm staying in cash becasue i mostly dont have the time and knowledge to play the bond and money mkts, but i'm betting a summer selloff and then QE3 with the normal fall strong period to be good for stocks and will look to buy again then.

People like to speculate about the downfall of the US dollar, but the simple fact is that it is by far and away the most popular currency.  Yes, more places in Europe and the middle East take euros but the US dollar is still preferred.  Other currencies just aren't trusted enough and the idea of the world's reserve currency being some mix of other currencies and gold or silver is too complicated and risky. 

The one image in my mind that shows the strong of the US dollar is from several years ago.  In the Middle East the Israelis had invaded Lebanon while fighting Hezbollah and did a lot of damage.  Hezbollah was heavily criticized by the locals because they did just as much damage as Israel and the locals were on international TV complaining not only about Israel but also Hezbollah.  So I guess as a PR stunt and to help soothe the local Lebanese feelings Hezbollah arranged to help pay for some of the damage.  CNN showed a Hezbollah team handing out money in the form of US dollars to the locals to help with repairs.  That goes to show how much respect the world has for the US dollar.  Hezbollah could have used euros, but no they choose the currency of their enemy the US dollar.     :money: :money:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 09, 2011, 11:42:30 AM
Quote
People like to speculate about the downfall of the US dollar, but the simple fact is that it is by far and away the most popular currency.  Yes, more places in Europe and the middle East take euros but the US dollar is still preferred.  Other currencies just aren't trusted enough and the idea of the world's reserve currency being some mix of other currencies and gold or silver is too complicated and risky. 

Thanks for your financial insight, do not mind if I frame this text and in a not to distant future will, (if you can still pay for internet and electricity with USD) can re-read what you now wrote and how all your years of experience in the world of finance (lol) was so helpfull.. ;D
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on May 09, 2011, 03:01:30 PM
right now is probably your last chance to get into silver for under $40 per ounce...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on May 09, 2011, 10:10:23 PM
QE1 & QE2 have caused the 30% inflation of gasoline prices .... the way that the honest people in the financial institutions encourage the US govt to hide their corruption; the lack of job growth; and the Social Security & Medicare crisis.

Corruption should be evident.

Job growth - deflating the dollar makes labor in the USA cheaper compared to the US of China.

The Social Security crisis - deflating the value of the dollar will make the cost of entitlements cheaper as larger tax flows flow from artificially inflated wages.

But, as always, wages will not keep up with inflation.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 10, 2011, 11:09:48 AM
right now is probably your last chance to get into silver for under $40 per ounce...

again, no. i think the majority would agree that everything - stocks,oil,metals has runup over the past 6 months minimum.

most likely, where you are w/ commodities and stocks is there was a big sell off, so you are now getting a bounce; but everything has still another leg down over the next 1 to 3 months.

i know i'm just one mans opinion, but i think right now; i would hold off buying more gold or silver until the next sell off occurs; which will be over the summer. i promise that as soon as i hear from the goldbugs in houston that it would be time to buy for the next leg up; i'll put it up here.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 10, 2011, 11:53:29 AM
Quote
again, no. i think the majority would agree that everything - stocks,oil,metals has runup over the past 6 months minimum.

So what? economics is not a casino son, winning streaks? LOOL
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 11, 2011, 08:36:54 AM
Quote
again, no. i think the majority would agree that everything - stocks,oil,metals has runup over the past 6 months minimum.

So what? economics is not a casino son, winning streaks? LOOL

no, but the markets do typically trade in a chart/pattern and right now stocks and commodities are extremely over bought on historical levels.

also, the reason i replied so soon after my last post; silver is forecasted by CNBC to go lower too($ 31): http://www.cnbc.com/id/42967317

and the goldbug i trust are saying 1331 for buying back into gold and to wait until end of summer(once the commodities unwind-my add).
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 11, 2011, 01:48:04 PM
Quote
no, but the markets do typically trade in a chart/pattern

LOOL!

Quote
and right now stocks and commodities are extremely over bought on historical levels.

LOOOL!,.., prices of commodities rise, because money is being printerd,,-> hence fewer goods being chase by more and more money...

I dont do chart and patterns, apply basic Austrian economic principles, you dont see me changing my story since I started this thread and Gold rose from 1.1K now to over 1.5k per ounce.

Another more realistic view would be that Gold remained the same and the dollar DROPPED in INTRINSIC VALUE  from 1.1 by a factor of 
....  1.1/1.5 =  28%
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 11, 2011, 01:49:57 PM
Quote
once the commodities unwind-my add).

You have no idea of what money actually is, you think its a piece of paper. No,...its not gold either,...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on May 11, 2011, 03:02:28 PM

LOOOL!,.., prices of commodities rise, because money is being printerd,,-> hence fewer goods being chase by more and more money...

I dont do chart and patterns, apply basic Austrian economic principles, you dont see me changing my story since I started this thread and Gold rose from 1.1K now to over 1.5k per ounce.

Another more realistic view would be that Gold remained the same and the dollar DROPPED in INTRINSIC VALUE  from 1.1 by a factor of 
....  1.1/1.5 =  28%

Actually, JC things rise when demand is greater than supply and decrease when supply is greater than demand.  I won't say printing more money won't have any effect but for example if everyone got gold fever and sold half their stock holdings and put the money in gold, stocks would go way down and gold would go way up and that is without printing any new money.  Your viewpoint is a little over simplistic.

So, when you started this thread gold was at 1.1 K and now it is at 1.5K and during the same time period my stocks doubled.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 11, 2011, 03:32:50 PM
Quote
Actually, JC things rise when demand is greater than supply

Ah, yes. cliche's work!

Quote
  I won't say printing more money won't have any effect

you mean paper? thats not money!

Quote
if everyone got gold fever

The only fever people have is to protect their wealth, again storing it in gold is just a way doing that, so it is not about gold perse,., but since this thread was started your brain doesnt seem to this singular point that is being made.

Quote
Your viewpoint is a little over simplistic.

Most socialist think "stealing under the right conditions" or "stealing for the right cause" is a good thing!

Simplistic? I dont complicate matters,...robbery is wrong, even if the maffia calls itself "government' these days!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: MissileMe on May 12, 2011, 07:34:27 AM
First of all, silver and gold most likely have not bottomed yet. 

I susupect that silver will see something closer to 27, possibly 23, maybe as low as 21 or 18. 

Gold will probably correct till 1320.  The correction may last up until fall / winter.

The reason is because if you look at the prices when QE2 started, this was the price.

Dont get me wrong, prices will go up.  Many think that we will be looking at 1700 by the end of they year.

Now silver is a different animal, I am suspecting that the Ag to Au ratio will go back beyond 40 to 1.   Meaning, gold will climb higher than silver or silver will plunge further.  They dont call it the devil"s metal for no reason.

It is not the price of pm going up.  It is paper money losing its value.  But this doesnt mean that the USD is toast.  As I said earlier, USD is making a little comeback.  The long term trend is bearish but ultra short is probably bull.

If preserving wealth is of utmost importance, having at least 25% in cash is a must.   If getting a good night rest is important, then holding stock is not the best idea.  At this point, holding cash is a good thing. 

As for NWO currency, I suspect that Soros will be heading it and there is no way to stop it.  All G8 nations will go down sooner than later.  I will have to say that when gold aproaches 2300, watch out.  The street price of physical and etf / paper price at the bank will probably be very different.  At this point I would encourage anyone to monetize the gains and convert it to physical at 2300.  That is if  the USA and other G7 nations are still floating in their vast ocean of paper money.   But then again, USA and their scientists from Harvard and MIT might just build Gigantor powered by Honda, parts supplied by Toyota, maintenanced by high school dropouts from some hicksville in Lousiana.   This Gigantor might bring back hope and production to the mainland, kick all terrorist ass, bring back jobs, bring the USD to the hegemonic status, and ultimately conquer the galaxy filled with sexy, beautiful, bodacious Aliens which will serve all humankind and bring peace, happiness and glory back to this filthy little gargbe dump known as Earth. 

Then again maybe not.  Never hurt being optimistic.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 12, 2011, 08:52:46 AM
First of all, silver and gold most likely have not bottomed yet. 

I susupect that silver will see something closer to 27, possibly 23, maybe as low as 21 or 18. 

Gold will probably correct till 1320.  The correction may last up until fall / winter.

The reason is because if you look at the prices when QE2 started, this was the price.

Dont get me wrong, prices will go up.  Many think that we will be looking at 1700 by the end of they year.


missleme is right.

the goldbugs i listen to say gold drops to 1335 and they are also saying silver has hit a double bottom and the day to get out was yesterday.

they will go up again before end of year, but for the next few months; you are going to lose money.

you guys can disagree with me all you wish, but i am not wrong here or in my predictions based on the guys i'm listening to were calling for the 2007 crash months before. as we all have something in common, pursuing an RW/UW; i'm hoping some will listen and follow because i'd like all of you guys to have a lot of money to spend on your RW/UW  :)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 12, 2011, 10:25:56 AM
Quote
i'm hoping some will listen and follow because i'd like all of you guys to have a lot of money to spend on your RW/UW

Altruism is for liberals!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 12, 2011, 06:41:36 PM
[attachimg=1]Its official they are planning to release the New Omero - a.k.a Obamugabe bucks.  in the new Obamugabe run IMF one OBM will buy you 1 Gallon of Gasoline or One loaf of Bread. :rolleye0009:

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on May 13, 2011, 08:21:53 AM
(Attachment Link) Its official they are planning to release the New Omero - a.k.a Obamugabe bucks.  in the new Obamugabe run IMF one OBM will buy you 1 Gallon of Gasoline or One loaf of Bread. :rolleye0009:

 :chuckle:

I was given one of these a couple of months ago by a visiting friend who lives in the US. It's printed so well I looked twice before I realized it was a fake/joke. ;D

Alright, bought 25 silver maple leafs last week. However, at the same time I'm starting to buy US currency (over the counter at this point probably open a US account in time).

I'm being told by a lot of people (who supposedly know such things) USD is going to go back up. That flies in the face of most predictions here I know but I'm still going to buy.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: nicknick on May 13, 2011, 08:49:03 AM
I'm being told by a lot of people (who supposedly know such things) USD is going to go back up. That flies in the face of most predictions here I know but I'm still going to buy.

Brass

Brass,

I think it may be more to do with the weakness of the Euro rather than any particular strength of the dollar.

It does look as though the Euro might be about to change direction over the next couple of weeks - it's been on a steady rise since June of last year.

So, if you've got Euros you might want to start changing them into Dollars. 

However, I believe that the Canadian Dollar is usually quite strongly correlated with the US Dollar so I'm not too sure how much a change there will be.  However, I really don't know anything about USD/CAD so don't listen to me about that.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on May 13, 2011, 09:20:07 AM
I think it may be more to do with the weakness of the Euro rather than any particular strength of the dollar.

It does look as though the Euro might be about to change direction over the next couple of weeks - it's been on a steady rise since June of last year.

So, if you've got Euros you might want to start changing them into Dollars. 

However, I believe that the Canadian Dollar is usually quite strongly correlated with the US Dollar so I'm not too sure how much a change there will be.  However, I really don't know anything about USD/CAD so don't listen to me about that.

Yes, it's been explained to me in a casual way but I won't try and present it here because I'm just not knowledgeable enough to give a cogent offering and would get torn apart by those here who have experience. :chuckle:

Hard to tell with CAD vs. USD. I remember two, three years ago exchange rates around .83 - .87 and there was a time (in the late 90's early 2000's) where we were sitting around .67 -.73 to the greenback. I don't expect those exchange rates anytime soon again though.

Incidentally, my forays into the world of precious metals and currency exchange is more a passtime than a vocation. I won't get rich (or sell the farm) with my dalliances. My real investment portfolio is handled by professionals. ;D

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 13, 2011, 09:49:13 AM
I'm being told by a lot of people (who supposedly know such things) USD is going to go back up. That flies in the face of most predictions here I know but I'm still going to buy.

Brass

Brass,

I think it may be more to do with the weakness of the Euro rather than any particular strength of the dollar.

It does look as though the Euro might be about to change direction over the next couple of weeks - it's been on a steady rise since June of last year.

So, if you've got Euros you might want to start changing them into Dollars. 

However, I believe that the Canadian Dollar is usually quite strongly correlated with the US Dollar so I'm not too sure how much a change there will be.  However, I really don't know anything about USD/CAD so don't listen to me about that.

Spain is has an OFFICIAL un-employment rate of 21%!!! ( who do you think is funding that? Thats right ECB is buying Espaniol debt) .  If Spain falls, Italy will fall-> Game over Euro!

Euro has a different terminal speed that the USD, but make no mistake...., both are doing badly!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 13, 2011, 02:05:08 PM
Well we get an early sense of things here in NH - a barometer for the rest of the Nation since Obama will not be challenged on the Dem side as it will be a Facebook lovefest and recoronation to the tune of $1Billion (lots of walking around and media love for BHO to buy I guess) the real contest will be with the Republicans - Trump was here in Nashua NH at a businessmans gathering this week speaking to the issues and Ron Paul threw his perrenial hat back in the ring - he is extremely popular this year - seems the things he has been talking about for 30 years now have resonanace - espcially about US empire building and the national debt.  Miltary Industrial Police Prison Complex has a vested agenda - but Trump and Paul the odds on favorties of the independents who are allowed to walk in and declare themselves for a party primary election (Either or one party but not both) and vote. 

Mittster Romney has a home on one of our more spectacular lakes here up by the mountains and has a bit of a lead in the polls.  If the Republicans and Independents and taxed enough already folks can coalesce and force the Dems and Blue Blood Bush elites to actually deal with the looming debt and currency bomb about to go off - and cut 4 to 6 Trillion out of the national Deficits and refom health care, Medicare/caid and Social Security while the 75 Million baby boomers now starting to turn 65 retire - well we have a small chance - mind you not a huge chance but a chance - local county city state and fed govts still have to reform their pension obligations and that will be a much tougher pill to swallow.  But just maybe the conservatives will stick to their guns this time around and not cave to the Obaminator throngs of gimme gimme freebies crowd like his Auntie Zaituni.  Will be very interesting - 4 of 5 of my more trusted Newsletters see the debt and currency bombs going off uncontrollably like a row of Japanese nuke reactors within 12 to 24 months if not sooner - so if that happens and the house of cards tumbles we would actually see Marshall Law in the USA and all bets are off.

In that case quite likely one of my companies will eventully be HQed in Zug with a winter office in Panama. :travel:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Larry on May 13, 2011, 02:40:55 PM
Quote
Spain is has an OFFICIAL un-employment rate of 21%!!! ( who do you think is funding that? Thats right ECB is buying Espaniol debt) .  If Spain falls, Italy will fall-> Game over Euro!

JC, when the Euro was introduced I thought it wouldn't hold its value because the countries that were fiscal basket cases would continue to be fiscal basket cases, Euro or no Euro.  But when the Euro held its value so well for so long I thought "I was dead wrong; glad I didn't put any money on that."  It has been interesting to see that this is playing out generally as I thought it would years ago. 

It seems the taxpayers of the more prosperous nations will continually have to bail out some of the less prosperous nations.  To give just one example: Greek citizens will riot in the streets if their government gets even half serious about making the gravy train even a tiny bit less rich.  So the Greek government will continue to lie to the Western European governments about its budget, and the Western European leaders will keep on pretending to believe these lies and kick the can down the road.

These leaders will announce with gravitas that the crisis has been averted by this bailout, which will be the last bailout bc the problem has been fixed.  Until the next crisis shows it has not been fixed, but merely postponed.

I wonder at what point voters in the first group of countries get so upset at doing this that they toss out a government.  I realize the political elites of Western Europe have managed to rig the system so that they can largely impose their will no matter what the voters think.  But at some point I wonder if enough voters get sufficiently upset that they can change this perpetual bailout.

What do you Western European guys think: is the currency union in its present form so important for you that you would countenance a perpetual bailout scheme?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 13, 2011, 03:31:57 PM
Quote
In that case quite likely one of my companies will eventully be HQed in Zug with a winter office in Panama.

The Swiss like thrifty ppl,..., welcome))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 13, 2011, 03:33:54 PM
@Larry,

Its all a big mess actually,..., A Dutch pensionfund was sued by the ECB for not following its guidelines (the pensionfund in question parked all assets in gold instead of buying worhtless government bonds)...  So thats how the game is played....working your whole life and in the end its all spend on buying votes...

Anyway...it has to get a whole lot worse before it gets better....
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 13, 2011, 09:01:46 PM
Hate to say it but there seems to be an attitude that with Germany's economy booming internationally and the rest of the EU excpet for the several technical and scientific "engines" in UK, Switzerland, Austria and parts of France and Italy will also boom - much of the rest of the EU sporting an attitude that the Bosch destroyed Europe 60 years ago and never had to pay  reparations after WWII so now is ther time to pay and carry the rest of the EU on their backs!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 14, 2011, 02:49:15 AM
Hate to say it but there seems to be an attitude that with Germany's economy booming internationally and the rest of the EU excpet for the several technical and scientific "engines" in UK, Switzerland, Austria and parts of France and Italy will also boom - much of the rest of the EU sporting an attitude that the Bosch destroyed Europe 60 years ago and never had to pay  reparations after WWII so now is ther time to pay and carry the rest of the EU on their backs!

Only the Greeks make that argument....if you find postings of other nations media promoting the same thing ,  let me know))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 14, 2011, 02:53:09 AM
Quote
Hate to say it but there seems to be an attitude that with Germany's economy booming internationally

Germanies main export market is now.....China??(wtf?). :D

That could have been GM selling their cars to the Chinese, but i guess the CHinese mindset is "why import crap if we already make it ourselves?"  :king:

Not to bash anyone, but I am pretty sure the Germans are not accepting USD as payment...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 14, 2011, 01:50:36 PM
Hey the Truth Hurts but look at the JD Powers Rating of vehicles sold int the USA - the highest 8 ratings go to Japanese - all the Japanese does not matter, 7s to the Koreans hot on their heels, 6 ratings go to the Germans (Must be the beer and lack of regimented calisthenics before the work shifts) and USA GM and Chrysler rated a 3 or less (Ford manages to score a 4 or 5 now and then).

Are the Japanese just a superior race - not really they love Karaoke and drinking themselves sensless most evenings after work - but during they day it is all about teamwork and pride in their craft and a zealous devotion to quality as though their own families will be in the cars they build - Now in the USA it is more of an indictment of the OFCCP Diversity hiring mandates in all major HR depts in all large Public US companies in the USA - instead of Teams that take pride in their work - you get politically correct diverse clusters with their own personal agendas who could give a crap less how the company does or how the customers are treated. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Larry on May 14, 2011, 03:10:58 PM
All too true about the auto industry.  And not only do the Japanese cars dominate JD Powers initial quality numbers, they last much longer than the Big Three's cars.  I once had a Honda Accord with 200,000 miles on it, and it ran perfectly and never broke down.  Now I regret replacing it, bc they typically run well even at 300,000 miles.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 16, 2011, 02:17:24 PM
Will be very interesting - 4 of 5 of my more trusted Newsletters see the debt and currency bombs going off uncontrollably like a row of Japanese nuke reactors within 12 to 24 months if not sooner - so if that happens and the house of cards tumbles we would actually see Marshall Law in the USA and all bets are off.

ok, well; the financial bomb is not going to happen no matter who wins the next presidency.

if the US continues at relatively the same deficit track they are on now, you should expect to see no growth and rolling recesssions(meaning the US ends one and 6 months later is in a new one because of no real econimic growth) for the next 10 years.

if youre very patient, you can make money riding those waves. thats what i'm doing now. after the correction we are now in ends, i'll buy the same stocks and ride them back up; but nothing is gaining on fundamentals now. i watch one stock that jumped 22% in one day off of earnings a week ago and that was it. no follow thru and its given 1/2 back already.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 16, 2011, 02:36:41 PM
Obamas next years budget added ONE TRILLION MORE to the ALREADY 2 TRILLION YEARLY DEFICIT
 :thumbsup:

Thanks to everyone who voted for him (not that the other guy was any better though)




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 17, 2011, 12:47:41 AM
The last and perhaps final wake up call:

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 17, 2011, 05:02:24 AM
The last and perhaps final wake up call:


College?  socialist sh*tholes....

Homeschooling  is the way!  buying books?  :censored:um!  download pdf's
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 19, 2011, 04:03:12 PM
Some interesting facts about the "Silver Bubble":

CPM Group: Silver Supply, Demand Grew In 2010; Trend To Continue

09 May 2011, 12:15 p.m.
By Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

Follow Kitco News live from the CPM event

New York (Kitco News) - Fabrication demand for silver in 2010 grew for the first time since 2007, while total supply also increased, and both of these trends are expected to continue in 2011, according to a commodities consultancy.
 
Even though the global economy is forecast to continue growing in 2011 and 2012, demand for safe-haven assets like silver will continue as investors are likely to be extremely sensitive to anything that might derail the economic recovery, said CPM Group, as it released its 2011 Silver Yearbook on Monday.

The average price of silver, using the nearby most-active Comex future settlement price, was $20.31 in 2010, up 38.4% over 2009 and the second-highest annual average price ever, bested only by 1980's average price of $20.65.

CPM attributed the rise in silver prices in 2010 largely to investment demand, but also in part to increased fabrication demand. Economic concerns spurred investors into silver as a safe haven, while rising wealth in emerging markets increased demand for consumer electronics. Further, demand from the solar industry lifted fabrication use.

Annual net purchases by investors totaled 142 million ounces in 2010, the fourth largest on record, CPM Group said. Only in 1968, 1980 and 1983 did investors collectively add more silver to their holdings. It's estimated that roughly two-thirds of the investment demand for silver came in the final four months of 2010.

Silver bought via exchange-traded funds continued to increase, with 122.7 million ounces added in 2010, versus 155.3 million added in 2009. Coin demand surged in 2010, and silver used in coins is estimated to have reached 74.5 million ounces, the highest level since 1967. The relatively low cost of silver coins, compared to gold, should keep this an attractive option for retail investors, CPM Group said. U.S. silver eagle coin sales contributed the most total silver used in coins, at 34.7 million ounces, a record high. This was 46.5% of total silver used in coins in 2010.

The value of investor silver holdings was estimated at $14.7 billion at the end of 2010, the highest level on a nominal basis since 1988, with the record at $42.2 billion – nominally – in 1980. The value of silver holdings is the product of the price of silver and the cumulative silver bullion inventories. On a global basis, however, the value of these assets represents 0.007% of total global financial assets, up from 0.003% in 2004. It was 0.34% in 1980.

Supply Rose In 2010

Total newly refined silver supply rose 4.3% in 2010, to 986.8 million ounces, driven by secondary supply sources.

Mine and secondary supply rose in 2010, CPM Group said. Mine production rose 2.2% to 667.0 million ounces, as rising capital expenditures in the mining sector, rising metals prices, and relatively low silver cash costs compared to the metal's price boosted output. These factors are expected to continue to lift supply, and for 2011 it is expected to rise 3.4%, to 689.6 million ounces.

Further, as miners devote capital to develop gold and copper mines, silver mine supply should grow, as 40% of silver's mine output comes from copper and gold mining. In 2010, 77% of total silver mine production was as a by-product of gold and base metal mining. This trend should continue.

Primary silver mining has slowly increased and is the source of 23% of total silver mine supply, up from 19% in 2008. The rise in part comes from the high margins for silver mining, which averaged $15.15 per ounce in 2010 versus $1.99 in 2002. The production-weighted average cash cost of 30 primary silver-producing mines in 2010 was $5.16, CPM Group said.

Secondary silver supplies now account for one-third of total supplies, up from 26% in 2001. Increased demand for electronic goods has boosted demand for silver, but as older electronic goods are replaced, the silver used in them is recycled. This is expected to expand in 2011. Higher prices and greater emphasis on recycling have boosted the amount of silver recovered. The average age for electronic items in three years and recycled supply from those goods are becoming a major source of secondary supply. This is unlike solar panels, which have a lifespan of 30 to 40 years, meaning that silver is being locked up from the market – a potentially bullish factor for silver long-term.

Fabrication Demand Rises In 2010 For First Time in Three Years

 Fabrication demand for silver rose 5% in 2010, to 844.8 million ounces, the first gain since 2007, but the demand is still under levels seen in the early 2000s. If the global economy continues to grow, CPM Group forecasts fabrication demand up 5.5% from 2010, to 890.9 million ounces.

Solar panel usage of silver has skyrocketed, with an estimated 64 million ounces used in 2010 up from 28.5 million ounces in 2009, and demand is likely to grow as there is an increased emphasis on "green energy." It represented the biggest increase in fabrication demand, and in 2011 is expected to rise 15.2%, to 73.7 million ounces, but remains vulnerable to government incentives.

Silver use in electronics reached a record 220.4 million ounces in 2010, up 5% from 2009, and is forecast by CPM Group to rise by 5.6% in 2011 to 232.7 million ounces. The growth comes from an increase in goods manufactured as producers are already thrifty in their precious metals use. The demand rise is most marked in developing countries, but the growth is universal, CPM Group said.

Jewelry and silverware use rose 0.1% over 2009, to 276.8 million ounces, and accounted for 32.8% of silver demand, the largest source of fabrication demand. This category is expected to rise by 5.9% in 2011, to 293.0 million ounces.

Medical use for silver has picked up in 2010, for its use as a biocide. It rose 7.7% versus 2009, to 5.6 million ounces and is projected to increase.

Not surprisingly, the biggest drop in silver demand comes from the photographic sector. The record use level was hit in 1999 at 267.2 million ounces, but by 2010, photographic use was 39% of that level, as digital photography takes the place of film and paper.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com
 
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110509DeCKN_silver_supply.html

Therefore one silver analyst's opinion: This correction (one of many since the bull market started in 2002) will prove to have been nothing more than a shake-out...which allowed a few very wealthy insider elites the opportunity to build their   positions in silver at lower prices. The very sketchy coordination of increased margin requirements (globally no less), combined with well placed hit pieces on silver just as the new margin requirements went into effect, raised my bullshite-ometer almost immediately. My educated guess is that the people that are calling a top in silver now will be the very same people that are recommending the purchase of silver when it hits $100/oz.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 24, 2011, 03:47:12 PM
China Secretly Declares War
on the United States
Dear Mike,
China has begun launching an all-out attack on the U.S.

But they’re not using soldiers, guns or bombs. 

They’re using weapons that can be much more devastating.

In short, the Chinese government is quietly destroying our already wounded currency.

As China’s President Hu Jintao puts it, “The dollar currency system is a thing of the past.”

No doubt... this is a declaration of financial war.

And on Saturday at the Global Currency Expo, Chuck Butler pointed out that, Chinese politicians are notorious for never whispering a word of their intentions unless...

A) It’s already a done deal, or B) They already have an iron-clad plan in place to get it done.

In the dollar’s case, it’s both...
 
The Modern-Day Weapon of
Mass Destruction: Economics
It’s easy to see why the Chinese are confident enough to announce their intentions.
Just look at the assaults the Chinese have already launched on the dollar...
1.) Debt infiltration:  The Chinese want to eliminate our economic dominance in the world. So they are buying up our debt, and making us dependent on them.
The American debt picture over the last 65 years is staggering:
•   In 1945, 0% of our debt was owned in other countries...
•   In 1980, 15% of our debt is owned by foreigners...
•   In 2010, 51% of our debt is now directly controlled by our economic competitors.
The main culprit: China. They’ve quietly accumulated almost one trillion dollars of U.S. debt.

Even scarier, the Chinese are buying Europe’s debt too. Next they will buy Japan’s.
Looks like they’re not stopping until they control the world. Once the Chinese own enough debt,   they can easily dictate policies around the world if they wish. 
It’s the power of being a creditor, not a debtor.
2.) Flanking the dollar:  In 2009, China signed currency swap agreements with key trading partners.
Their goal: eliminate the dollar from ALL trading transactions.

You see, when any country around the world wants to trade, they have to convert their local currencies into the world reserve currency (the U.S. dollar) before completing the trade.

For instance, if Germans want to buy Swiss chocolate they would first have to convert their Euros into U.S. dollars to pay the Swiss. 

That’s why every central bank around the world keeps dollars on hand.

But China’s new agreements say they can now trade in their own currencies. No dollars needed.

That’s how China first eliminated the dollar in trading within Asia - then Belarus, Argentina and Brazil.

Now they are looking to eliminate the dollar in trade Canada and Russia... and there are rumors they’re setting up deals with the Arab states.

Securing one more strategic victory in their quest to eliminate the dollar.
3.) Stockpiling weapons of financial destruction: There have been whispers that China is hoarding huge quantities of commodities and precious metals.  Much more than they need to fuel their explosive economic growth.
Some believe they are looking to create a new currency.

A Chinese currency that’s backed with a basket of commodities and precious metals... delivering a death-blow to the dollar as the reserve currency of the world.

If China were to succeed it would have devastating consequences for everyone in the U.S. 

We’ll no longer be able to run deficits, commodity prices will skyrocket even further and inflation will run wild.

Which is why it’s critical you take precautions now and diversify out of the dollar.

And that’s where Andy Hecht comes in...
Ditch the Dollar and Supercharge Your Gains
The dollar is down 33% over the last 10 years... while the S&P handed investors a negative 2% return... and that includes dividends.

Meanwhile, during this period gold has soared over 500% and silver has skyrocketed over 900%.

With China’s attack on the dollar, and the government’s “strong dollar” policy that prints a billion dollars a day... the commodity and precious metals bull market is far from over.

And Andy taught everyone here a great way to limit their risk and potentially supercharge their gains trading in commodities with options.

Unfortunately, I can’t share all the details of Andy’s presentation due to CFTC regulations.

But I’d like to let you in on a little secret....  Andy’s currently targeting silver’s coming pullback as a massive profit opportunity.

I can’t give you the details of this play here, it wouldn’t be fair to the people who attended the Expo, but you can get Andy’s recommendation in the DVD’s of the Global Currency Expo.
But that’s just the beginning...
Eric Roseman, editor of Commodity Trend Alert, had me furiously scribbling notes just to keep up with the torrents of recommendations he was spewing out to attendees.

According to Eric, we are deep into a commodity super-cycle and have at least 3-5 years of oversized returns left in this bull market.

The catalyst... China, who’s been blanketing the commodity markets like a plague of locusts (with the intention of making the Yuan the new reserve currency).

Eric shared over 15 ways to profit from this trend, including gems like...
•   CMP Gold Trust
•   Endeavour Silver
•   Barrick Gold
But there’s one industry that Eric believes will be like buying gold at $350... and that’s agriculture.

With falling water tables, Asia’s emerging middle-class and declining arable land, the competition is on for food and drinkable water.

And Eric revealed the best way to capture the boom across all the agriculture commodities, in his trade of the decade.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 24, 2011, 03:59:27 PM
Go Figure:

The “Must-Own”
Currency of the Summer

By Sean Hyman, Editor, Currency Cross Trader
Dear Mike,

I'm not a huge sports fan. But I still know that if you plan on winning any game - whether its basketball, football, baseball, even tennis - you have to play both offense and defense.

Over the last 20 years, I’ve come to think of investment portfolios the same way.

The problem is most investors only have an offensive strategy and don’t have a defensive play at all. I blame stockbrokers for this because they constantly tell you to “buy stocks now” - whether it’s a good idea or not.

And in this day and age, that’s a huge mistake...

It’s essentially betting the markets will always rise indefinitely. Over the last month, we have all gotten a harsh reminder that this is simply not the case.

Fortunately, there are a handful of investments you can use to play defense when the markets run against you. I call these plays the “financial blockers” in your portfolio.

This summer, I’m betting on one of these gems in particular...


In the currency world, there are five defensive blockers big institutional players grab to shield their portfolios...

Gold, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. treasuries.

When stocks crumble, they grab all five of these defensive plays hand over fist. As I like to say, “The big money runs for these assets when everyone else is running for the hills.”

Specifically, you see all five of these assets rise in price every time volatility starts to perk up in the markets.

Over the last 30 days, we have already started to see that happen.

This is pretty typical for May. It’s the time when big institutional players close out their positions and head for their summer holidays. As a result, volatility spikes, and commodities and stocks tend to pull back.

But it’s about to get even worse...

The One Defensive Player Set to Take Off



The chart in the middle shows that volatility is already starting to creep back up to where it was in March (right around the time that disaster struck Japan).

Obviously some investors already feel this recent stock and commodity rally was a little too good to be true.

Also, everyone knows that QE II is ending next month. The Fed is about to pull the plug on the liquidity party that has propped up stocks and commodities since last November.

You could say that stocks and commodities are scheduled to fall off a cliff in late June. So the smart money is already bringing out their defensive team onto the field.

Usually, I would recommend you do the same.

But this year, the defensive plays have spiked so high, so fast, that you won’t see the kind of returns you would have gotten this time last year.

Gold is already above $1,500.

The Swiss franc and Japanese yen have rallied so high that their central banks keep threatening to intervene.

Even U.S. Treasuries have been climbing in price (while the yields remain pathetic at best).

That leaves just one defensive play left...

...The U.S. dollar.

The Oddest Protection for
Your Stock Portfolio

If you read Currency Capitalist, you know my colleagues and I have been recommending you buy the U.S. dollar for a couple months now.

As strange as it sounds, buying the debt-ridden dollar in the short-term can actually provide a nice hedge for your stock portfolio.

That’s because like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc, the big institutional investors tend to run for the U.S. dollar whenever volatility spikes and stocks start to fall.

With QE II scheduled to end June 30th, that’s exactly what we are about to see.

Now, of course, you could just sell your stocks and sit in cash for the summer, but where’s the fun in that?

Instead, I would recommend looking into ETFs or even currency options (specifically put options on other foreign currencies) to play the dollar’s rise.

Both can provide a hedge against the stock and commodity correction coming over the next few months - and give you some extra profits at the same time.

Bottom line: The U.S. dollar is the best hedge you’ll find this summer. Be sure to use it to your advantage.

Have a Nice Day!


Sean Hyman
Editor, Currency Cross Trader
Blog: http://wcw.worldcurrencywatch.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 25, 2011, 02:19:45 PM

i like that hyman, he thinks like i do.

i've got the market short ETF, SH; on watch. wont put much money in it comparatively what i did going long; but i cant sit for 3 months; i'm too addicted to financial markets.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 25, 2011, 02:44:07 PM
Another expert perspective:

Embry - Silver Market Extraordinarily Tight - Look for $125

John Embry, CIS at Sprott Asset Mgt is one of the old timers in the precious metals business. He was a major player during the last silver bull market and I can remember his articles that helped enlighten people about the Hunt brothers attempts to corner the market in silver. Bottom line, he's seen it all and I echo every comment he makes in his excellent article below...including his prediction for a move to $125 in silver and $2500 in gold (of course, many forecasts are significantly higher)   

Silver has been on a wild ride, with a rocketship move to $49/oz, followed by a classic shake-out of weak hands all the way down to the low 30's. This morning, silver is up big for the second day in a row. Yesterday's near 3% move higher is being followed up by a 2% move just so far today, with last trade at $37.43. With AGQ, the 2x leveraged ETF, we've seen a quick 25% move higher in just the last 6 trading days...with last trade at $196/oz.

Gold has weathered the correction far better, with last trade today of $1530/oz...just below it's all time high in USD. In Euro $, it's trading at an all time high, which marks a significant breakout. At last count I've seen right at 20 co-called gold experts that have predicted a summer lull in gold before the next big ramp in the fall...they will be proven wrong and badly so. This summer will mark the next phase of the mega-crisis throughout Europe, and gold and silver will be the big winners...as the only true currencies on the planet.

Continue to buy gold and silver. Continue to buy DGP and AGQ.

Embry - Silver Market Extraordinarily Tight, Look for $125
 
With gold and silver on the rebound, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the now $9 billion strong Sprott Asset Management.  When asked about gold breaking out in Euros and the Pound Embry stated, “I think it’s very significant.  I mean the fact that they held it (gold) in Euros there for weeks, but now I think the problems in Europe, in the periphery are becoming so apparent and the anger is starting to really rise to the surface, they are basically spurring buying in these countries.”   
 
Embry continues:
 
“People are feeling more comfortable protecting themselves with things like gold.  I think it is significant that it (gold) has broken out here in Euros and in the English Pound and I think it will break out to new highs against the US dollar before this move is over.”
 
When asked about the action in silver specifically Embry remarked, “Let’s face it, silver needed a correction because it had gone up in almost a straight line and people were talking about parabolas and what have you.  But the correction was amplified by the CFTC allowing or sponsoring five margin hikes in eight days.  Every time the price was getting pounded they put in another margin hike, so anybody that was long and didn’t have extraordinarily deep pockets had to puke the position.
 
But I think the most interesting comment someone said was, ‘You know in the long-term move in silver this will look like the blip in the ’87 stock market crash.’  Then, as you know, they killed it (stocks) in ’87 and the stock market proceeded to go up 5 or 6 fold.  I think silver will do exactly the same thing.  It’s irritating if you’re long on margin because you are going to get kicked out of the position, but if you know the game, it was just another opportunity to get some cheap silver.”
 
When asked if there was still tightness in the silver market Embry replied, “As far as what we look at, my partner Eric Sprott, he thinks the market is extraordinarily tight.  I think one thing people are underestimating is the investment demand.  This is being triggered by the high gold price which is driving the little guy into silver for the simple reason that he can’t handle how much it costs to get an exposure in gold, so he buys silver.
 
So I think this will be an ongoing phenomena and when you put that together with the strong industrial demand, the two together will drive silver much higher.  I think the optimists that are talking about the gold/silver ratio declining to historical lows of 10 to 15 times could well be right, and given where I think gold is going, I mean that has an enormous upside potential for silver.
 
...Well let’s say gold goes to $2,500 which I don’t think is an outrageous statement in the face of what is going on, and the gold silver ratio falls to 20 to 1, well that puts silver at $125...People that were top-calling in silver and gloating when it got taken to the cleaners, I don’t really think they really understand the dynamics of the market.”
 
When asked if he thought James Turk was correct in his KWN interview where he discussed this summer possibly being a repeat of 29 years ago when gold had a massive upside move Embry said, “Absolutely, and the fact that everybody is sort of trying to put a seasonal spin on this that gold is sort of weak...I think they could get blindsided and that James Turk could be very right on that call.”
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 30, 2011, 01:17:51 PM
The Real Gold in Russia:

Amazing when you think about it really...

Today Moscow is the city with the most billionaire residents in the world.

The Russian capital boasts 79 billionaires, a stunning increase of 21 in just one year. That more than edges out No. 2 New York, with only 59 billionaires, and No. 3 London with 41. Other cities in the top 15 include such rising stars as Mumbai, Taipei, Sao Paolo and Istanbul. Los Angeles manages a tie for No. 8.

The combined fortunes of Moscow's billionaire population top $375 billion, more privately amassed wealth than in any other city in the world.

http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/cities-with-the-most-billionaires-2011.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 30, 2011, 01:40:53 PM
I think taxes in Russia are 9% (thats IF YOU ARE RUSSIAN!!)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 30, 2011, 01:58:08 PM
I think taxes in Russia are 9% (thats IF YOU ARE RUSSIAN!!)

I was told 13% but that does not include the unofficially required "baksheesh" taxes which can be quite significant...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on May 30, 2011, 02:03:59 PM
I think taxes in Russia are 9% (thats IF YOU ARE RUSSIAN!!)

I was told 13% but that does not include the unofficially required "baksheesh" taxes which can be quite significant...

For NON citizens there is a an extra tax before you take the proceeds of your investment out of Russia, true..
the 9% is official flat tax for Russians only.....with the note on OFFICIAL....
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 03, 2011, 04:17:41 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here

Brief update…but important…and a theme that I will be writing about often in the days and weeks to come.

A Death Spiral occurs in the financial markets when investors realize that a specific asset class is finished…kaput. When this sense of certainty sets in, selling overwhelms buying by a large enough degree that a major tipping point is reached.
 
The Death Spiral is here in US and European real estate… China as well (regardless of what the mainstream media may want you to believe).
 
The Death Spiral is here in European debt and European banking…so much so that the European Central Bank (our version of the FED) is the ONLY place where capital is being raised and where capital is being deposited.
 
And, the Death Spiral is almost here for employment…soon, it will become clear to all that forced austerity measures will mean that the largest employer on the planet…government…can no longer sustain the global economy.
 
So what does this mean for us?
 
There’s no way that the FED, or global central banks, can turn off the spigot of massive amounts of newly printed fiat currency. This reality will be the final straw for Keynesian economics, and this time the equity markets will go down, instead of rallying on the news of government bailouts.
 
Bottom line:
 
Buy Gold and Silver
 
Buy SPXU
 
Buy TMV
 
Short FSLR
 
And finally, continue to buy Falcon. The news cycle is about to turn heavily in our favor. 
 
More to follow soon.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 06, 2011, 10:19:02 AM
Another Wake Up Call from an expensive newsletter:

The World…As We Know it…Is About To End
 
Note: This is likely my most important update to date.
Kip     
 
In 2006 I began warning about the coming $50 trillion transfer of wealth…the largest financial disruption in the history of the planet. Instead of simply being a scare tactic, it came with specific recommendations on not only how to survive these never before seen economic events, but how to prosper enormously from them as well.
 
5 years ago my advance strategy for grabbing your share of this massive transfer of wealth included:
 
      Sell the vast majority of investments in the stock market
      Sell any and all real estate holdings that you could reasonably make the case for
      Buy as much gold and silver as possible
      Become an entrepreneur so that you can prepare for Depression era levels of unemployment, and instead, take control of your future
 
Those that listened to my warnings are now way ahead of the game…not just financially but emotionally and physically as well, as we know that the vast majority of anxiety and illness stems from stress…and nothing is more stressful than financial duress.
 
The world as we know it is very close to ending, and everyone reading this has a choice…in fact you are making a choice right now whether you realize it or not. The choice is actually very simple; your choice will determine whether you become a pauper or become incredibly wealthy. Sure, some may see their lives go on about the same as before, but here’s an important warning that should be heeded by all; the only people alive today that may see their lives go on as before are either the already ultra-wealthy or the already ultra-poor. Many in the ultra-wealthy camp will still have sufficient financial means to continue living the semi-good life (although a great many of these will wind up destitute as well), and those in the ultra-poor camp will continue to survive on the backs of food stamps, welfare and government assistance programs. For those that are hiding under rocks, a record 45 million Americans are currently on food stamps today. Not even during the Great Depression did we witness the current level of misery and lack of upside potential, promise and hope. Those that believe that our economic morass began in 2008 are simply not armed with the truth, as we are now one full decade into financial despair. How can I make this bizarre claim? Since 2001, the real GDP (gross domestic product) of the US has actually been negative, once you remove the ATM that allowed us to continue showing positive economic growth; Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (MEW). Put simply, a mortgage equity withdrawal is just what it sounds like; homeowners withdrawing the equity in their homes to continue funding their bankrupt lifestyles. This is what made then FED Chairman Alan Greenspan’s advice (from the early to mid 2000’s), that Americans should use adjustable rate mortgages in order to turn a personal residence into an asset, so unbelievably dangerous and irresponsible. With the recommendation and full backing of Greenspan and the FED, the vast majority of homeowners began to view their homes as a personal piggybank, hoping against hope that their homes would only rise in value in perpetuity. Thanks a lot AG…your incredibly awful advice helped to jumpstart our Greatest Depression.
 
As the chart below shows, MEW’s jumped from just over $200 billion/year in 2001 to more than $700 billion/year by 2006…a 250% increase…and a more than 900% increase in MEW’s from the levels of the early 90’s.   
 
 
 
This most important economic data, which has rarely (if ever) been picked up on by the mainstream media, is something that I started writing about in late 2005, and clearly proves that Americans have been living on borrowed time for a full decade. Were it not for MEW’s, we would have had a negative GDP for more than a decade now, making this a Depression long before the media ever recognizes it as such. Now, with home prices in steep decline for more than 6 years, we have already surpassed the housing collapse experienced during the 1930’s…this country’s Great Depression…with no signs of a bottom in sight. In fact, according to the governments own data, year over year home prices declined in 48 of 50 states, but remember…these are pro-Obama government statistics…meaning that there is little doubt that home values in all 50 states continue in freefall. Globally, the situation is much the same, if not worse in many countries. Europeans are actually one step ahead of us in this economic race to the bottom, and Japan is literally on the precipice of complete collapse. China…the most economically manipulated mega-country on the planet… will come crashing down once the 90% that live in poverty begin to rise up against their communist liar-leaders in charge. 
 
If you are still reading this (yes, I know, economic statistics can be mind-numbing) then you are among the .001 of Americans that know the truth of our ongoing economic collapse. This means that you also realize that America, once seen as that city on a shining hill…well, those days are over…and while I am 100% confident that we will recapture those glory days of old, it will be 2 to 5 years before this has a chance of becoming reality. Please remember this most important point; it will be 2 to 5 years before our economy bottoms out. Between now and then, many fortunes will be lost, many fortunes will be gained and tens of millions will face a level of economic misery they never thought possible.
 
This WMI and VRA update, along with the ones that follow in the weeks and months to come, are my most important ever. Those that choose to ignore these warnings will face a future as bleak as a thousand days of darkness. As dire as this sounds…as dire as it will be…the opportunities for unlimited prosperity have never been greater. Remember, times of calamity bring with it a big flip side to this coin, and those that are prepared will become the new Rockefellers and JP Morgans, who amassed their wealth during the 1930s while the majority fell into fear and despair. 
 
Going forward, I will do my absolute best to prepare you with specific timing of coming events, but for now, here’s what you should be preparing for:
 
The Greatest Depression
 
If you think that the last 3 years have been brutal for you financially, the next shoes to drop will make the recent past look like an economic boom. Some may look at the overall economy today and think that everything is going to be ok. After all, the equity markets have bounced back, unemployment in the US is “just” 9.1% (assuming you buy into bogus government statistics), and it appears that the global financial panic that we witnessed in late 2008 to early 2009 may have passed.
 
Those that believe this will be proven grossly optimistic.
 
Two major smokescreens are responsible for this pause in an ongoing economic hurricane…a respite before the realities of the Greatest Depression begins to sink in for all.
 
One, we are currently in a war-time economy. History tells us that wars actually result in mini-boom times for economic recovery. If you doubt this, go back and study the economic affects of WWI and WWII, the Vietnam War, and of course our current wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. All resulted in huge levels of government spending, which gave the appearance of a strong economy. Case in point; currently, government spending makes up 40% of the US economy, a level never witnessed before. We know that the Pentagons annual budget is running at $1 trillion plus annually, but this doesn’t include the actual expenses of the wars themselves. Let’s be generous and call that $1.5 trillion just so far. Next, we have to include Federal hiring and the ongoing expenses from the largest employer on the planet…the US government. Bottom line, if it were not for US imperialism, world domination and the gross levels of spending that comes with it, the official unemployment rate would be 12% plus and even Obama’s spin masters wouldn’t be able to hide the truth about employment from a country of placated, drug-induced sheeple. So, now you know who’s been buying all of those Ipods and Mac Books…government/taxpayer financed employees…be it military or civil. And soon, as investors cease buying our debt and our freshly printed fiat currency, we will officially run out of money to fund this war-time economy, due to coming forced austerity measures. Europe is being forced to confront this reality now, and that’s a playbook that we should all be paying very close attention to.   
 
The second economic smokescreen that’s allowed us to kid ourselves about the real level of poverty we face are the criminal actions of our Central Banks…the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, ad nauseum. This secretive, global cabal of private bankers has flooded the world with fiat currency…money backed by absolutely nothing…in a brazen attempt to fool everyone on the planet that things are actually ok. This unlimited level of money printing…massive currency inflation…has also allowed Central Banks to become the buyers of last resort for our own sovereign debt. Referred to as Quantitative Easing in the states, the FED is now responsible for the purchase of 70% of all US government debt that’s issued, and globally, the FED’s partners in crime are up to the same shenanigans. In Europe, my sources tell me that effectively ALL bank lending/borrowing has closed and is only able to occur because of the European Central Banks fiat spigot…the situation is beyond salvageable. These fraudulent acts are nothing short of a huge criminal conspiracy by our supposed leaders, and the end result will be hyperinflation on a level that’s never before been experienced, all across the globe.     
 
In plain English, our Ponzi scheme of a global economy is about to come crashing down. It took years for Bernie Madoffs scam to be uncovered, and now, the financial criminals in charge are being discovered one by one. The next shoe is dropping and its time to prepare.
 
My advance strategy from 2006 still holds true today:
 
      Sell the vast majority of investments in the stock market
      Sell any and all real estate holdings that you could reasonably make the case for
      Buy as much gold and silver as possible
      Become an entrepreneur so that you can prepare for Depression era levels of unemployment, and instead, take control of your future
 
However, there is one major piece of advice that I would add today; as we watch the coming collapse unfold before our eyes, this train wreck will be much different from 2008…or even from our last Great Depression. This time, government actions will not be able to provide a safety net beneath our high wire circus act. This time, there will be little to no support for massive government bailouts and fiat currency stimulus. This time the FED, and its sister central banks around the globe, will not be able to print $15 trillion in order to replace missing economic activity. Most importantly, this time the bubbles that burst will be the ones that cannot be re-inflated artificially, namely the bubbles of sovereign government debt and fiat currency. The entire financial system as we know it is set to collapse.
 
In my new book, CrashProof Prosperity; Becoming Wealthy in the Age of Risk, I did my best to spell out the risks and rewards that we all face going forward. I do not wish for this to be our future, I only know that every piece of research and data that I study continues to point to this reality as highly likely. I started publishing the VRA in 2002…and we formed WMI in 2005…with one major goal in mind; to educate the masses with true knowledge, the most valuable commodity on the planet. We should not be forced to plan our futures and fulfill our destinies with fraudulent, manipulated, elitist propaganda.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 12, 2011, 05:57:22 PM
Since I read that nearly half of all homes over $10 Million in value in London England are being purchased by Russians - one wonders if this is not a similar problem for Russia as well???

China's 'Wealth Drain': New Signs That Rich Chinese Are Set on Emigrating

BEIJING — Is China facing a "Wealth Drain"? Do too many of the best and brightest — and above all, richest — Chinese dream of packing up their accumulated capital, and going to live abroad?

According to a new study, a majority of Chinese who have more than 10 million Yuan ($1.53 million) worth of individual assets find the idea of real—estate investment a lot less tempting than so—called "investment emigration." Nearly 60% of people interviewed claim they are either considering emigration through investment overseas, or have already completed the process, according to the 2011 Private Wealth Report on China published by China Merchants Bank and a business consulting firm Bain & Company. The richer you are, the study suggests, the likelier it is that you resort to emigration. And among those who possess more than 100 million yuan, 27 % have already emigrated while 47% are considering leaving.

The fact that more and more rich Chinese are seeking to emigrate is turning into a hot topic in China, and statistics prove that the trend is a real one. According to Caixin online, a Chinese website specialized in finance, the compound annual growth rate of overseas investment by Chinese individuals approached 100% between 2008 and 2010. The compound growth rate of the Chinese who used investments to emigrate to the United States in the past five years is 73%.

So why are wealthy Chinese so eager to leave their country? The simplest answer is that there are a lot of things in China that even the richest cannot buy (emigration is obviously not one of them). China's rich are fond of saying that nothing "is a problem if money can solve it." Among the irresolvable problems that spark emigration, there are material ones, and emotional ones.

The former includes issues like laws and regulations, the education system, social welfare, inheritance tax, quality of air, investing atmosphere, food safety, ability to travel, and so on. In short, these are the material factors that any State must provide to its people in order to ensure their happiness. In emerging countries such as China, these factors are still often found wanting.

Emotional reasons behind rich people's immigration are generally linked to the lack of a sense of personal safety, including safety of personal wealth, as well as fear about an uncertain future.
(See: "China Stamps Out Democracy Protests")

It thus appears that it is a certain "lack of well—being" that is pushing wealthy Chinese to emigrate. The results of the Private Wealth Report are very much in line with other studies. A recent Gallop Wellbeing Survey showed that most Chinese people feel depressed, even as China has sky—high economic growth rates that Europe and America can only dream of. According to the survey, which asked respondents to choose between "thriving," "struggling," and "suffering" to describe their situation, only 12% think themselves as "thriving," while 17% describe themselves as "suffering," and 71% "struggling." The number of Chinese who feel that their life is improving is comparable to the number of Afghans and Yemeni who feel the same way, while the number of persons feeling they are "struggling" is approximately the same as in Haiti, Azerbaijan and Nepal.

It is a paradox that, in a country where more and more people are getting richer by the day — albeit to the detriment of the poor, who have benefitted very little from the country's new wealth — the general feeling of well—being should remain at rock—bottom. The poor grumble while the rich flee.

The truth is that, unless they emigrate, the wealthy have to suffer from the same causes of unhappiness as the poor. Take food safety. Last year, when a Chinese woman living in Canada was asked by the International Herald Tribune why she had left her country, she said it was because of the Sanlu (toxic baby milk) case, and also because of the "hatred against the rich." Her answer highlights the fact that, as the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider, and the poor are complaining more and more, the rich are also getting more nervous. Some rich people even worry that the "redistribution of wealth might start all over again."
(See: "Fellow Dissident on Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize ")

Although the danger seems overblown for now, people are starting to wonder where the public hatred of the rich might lead. The wealthy also know that they bear some of the responsibility for the unequal distribution of wealth. The so—called "original sin of wealth" is not totally without foundation, and it is often difficult for the rich to stop enriching themselves. Fluctuating market conditions bring out a survival instinct that sometimes makes them commit illegal or immoral acts. Once they realize this, they often chose to avoid the trap by emigrating and starting afresh.

The situation would not be as serious, of course, if the number of people deciding to leave were low. But once a few personal choices take the shape of a massive drain, the consequences of their departure on the economy and on society, through the example they set, can be dire.

An even bigger cause of concern is that, when rich people pack their money and leave, not only are they no longer identifying with their country, but they are also avoiding their social obligations. While the reason behind these people's decision matters little, the undeniable fact is that they make money from this society, but they refuse to give anything back.

Rich people who decide to move to a foreign country should know that, by doing so, they are stoking the dissatisfaction among those who stay behind. The poor get angrier because they cannot leave, and their hatred towards the remaining rich grows even bigger. This is the most corrosive thing that can happen to a society.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2077139,00.html#ixzz1P6oBw19P
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on June 12, 2011, 08:12:17 PM
I've got a bit of gold.  More important than gold if a crisis hits will be food and water.  If you can afford it, don't buy gold, buy a farm with chickens cows and pigs which you can eat.  And buy one with its own source of water such as a spring.  And buy about 6 mean professionally trained guard dogs to roam your property.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on June 14, 2011, 02:54:51 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here

Brief update…but important…and a theme that I will be writing about often in the days and weeks to come.


gotta disagree with that. true, the US is in bad fiscal shape and unfunded entitlements and going to make it much worse sooner than expected but the US economy can still row a helluva boat while taking on water.

i'm speculating that the US is likely to follow japan with rolling recessions occurring every 3-4 years until the US decides to get serious fininacially.

just riding the QE waves until that happens. QE3 coming in the fall for sure.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on June 14, 2011, 03:34:00 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here


And, the Death Spiral is almost here for employment…soon, it will become clear to all that forced austerity measures will mean that the largest employer on the planet…government…can no longer sustain the global economy.
 

Cuffy the largest employer is the US government but if you look at where the employment in the US government has grown over the last couple of decades you will discover that the major source of new employees has been in the military, Homeland Security, Justice and Veterans Affairs.  In other words all the growth in US government employment over the last 2 decades can be attributed to the US military industrial complex.  The departments of Health and Human Services, Education and Social Security actually employ fewer people today than in 1974.  The Department of Agriculture employs fewer people today than in 1962.  The Department of the Interior employs fewer people today than in 1974. The Department of Transportation employs fewer people today than it did in 1969.  Even figures listed under "Others" were at times higher in years dating back to the 1940's.

Add to these numbers the number of people involved in contract employment tendered by the US government and the number of employees is millions more.  Of course the vast numbers of these contracts don't deal with cutting edge technology to be used by the Department of Agriculture.  The vast majority of these contracts will be related to the US military. 

Let's face it Cuffy if the US is ever going to reduce its debtload and deficit it is going to have to reduce its military budget and the jobs it outsources to the private sector.  In other words fewer nuc boats, fewer private contracts for new cutting edge technology of new nuc boats.  Either that or teach your children and grandchildren to speak Mandarin.   

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on June 15, 2011, 11:58:20 AM


Let's face it Cuffy if the US is ever going to reduce its debtload and deficit it is going to have to reduce its military budget and the jobs it outsources to the private sector.  In other words fewer nuc boats, fewer private contracts for new cutting edge technology of new nuc boats.  Either that or teach your children and grandchildren to speak Mandarin.   

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

You're kidding of course. IF the US reduces its military hardware how do you think it is going to fend off all those creditors? How will they scare everybody else into submission without all that hardware?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on June 17, 2011, 04:26:02 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here


And, the Death Spiral is almost here for employment…soon, it will become clear to all that forced austerity measures will mean that the largest employer on the planet…government…can no longer sustain the global economy.
 

Cuffy the largest employer is the US government but if you look at where the employment in the US government has grown over the last couple of decades you will discover that the major source of new employees has been in the military, Homeland Security, Justice and Veterans Affairs.  In other words all the growth in US government employment over the last 2 decades can be attributed to the US military industrial complex.  The departments of Health and Human Services, Education and Social Security actually employ fewer people today than in 1974.  The Department of Agriculture employs fewer people today than in 1962.  The Department of the Interior employs fewer people today than in 1974. The Department of Transportation employs fewer people today than it did in 1969.  Even figures listed under "Others" were at times higher in years dating back to the 1940's.

Add to these numbers the number of people involved in contract employment tendered by the US government and the number of employees is millions more.  Of course the vast numbers of these contracts don't deal with cutting edge technology to be used by the Department of Agriculture.  The vast majority of these contracts will be related to the US military. 

Let's face it Cuffy if the US is ever going to reduce its debtload and deficit it is going to have to reduce its military budget and the jobs it outsources to the private sector.  In other words fewer nuc boats, fewer private contracts for new cutting edge technology of new nuc boats.  Either that or teach your children and grandchildren to speak Mandarin.   

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

nice, but likely not accurate.

i'm not certain about reducing numbers in education of HHS, but i am sure that many departments budgets have skyrocketed because i wrote a book on it and did the reaserch persoanlly.
the department of water transporatation grew 56% from 2001 to 2006 and dept of enegry grew by over a thousand times in the same period. i dont remember what education or hhs did, but i'm guessing easily more than 25%, did your company budget grow 25% from 2001 to 2006 ?

also, from their beginning to now, medicare and medicaid both grew over 100 times in about 40 years, did your house increase in value 100 times in 40 years ?

during the same 40 year period, military spending has remained under 20%(the 2 wars not withstanding).

its flat out government agencies and programs that are making federal budgets skyrocket, military spending behaves itself by comparison.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on June 17, 2011, 05:03:24 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here


And, the Death Spiral is almost here for employment…soon, it will become clear to all that forced austerity measures will mean that the largest employer on the planet…government…can no longer sustain the global economy.
 

Cuffy the largest employer is the US government but if you look at where the employment in the US government has grown over the last couple of decades you will discover that the major source of new employees has been in the military, Homeland Security, Justice and Veterans Affairs.  In other words all the growth in US government employment over the last 2 decades can be attributed to the US military industrial complex.  The departments of Health and Human Services, Education and Social Security actually employ fewer people today than in 1974.  The Department of Agriculture employs fewer people today than in 1962.  The Department of the Interior employs fewer people today than in 1974. The Department of Transportation employs fewer people today than it did in 1969.  Even figures listed under "Others" were at times higher in years dating back to the 1940's.

Add to these numbers the number of people involved in contract employment tendered by the US government and the number of employees is millions more.  Of course the vast numbers of these contracts don't deal with cutting edge technology to be used by the Department of Agriculture.  The vast majority of these contracts will be related to the US military. 

Let's face it Cuffy if the US is ever going to reduce its debtload and deficit it is going to have to reduce its military budget and the jobs it outsources to the private sector.  In other words fewer nuc boats, fewer private contracts for new cutting edge technology of new nuc boats.  Either that or teach your children and grandchildren to speak Mandarin.   

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

nice, but likely not accurate.

i'm not certain about reducing numbers in education of HHS, but i am sure that many departments budgets have skyrocketed because i wrote a book on it and did the reaserch persoanlly.
the department of water transporatation grew 56% from 2001 to 2006 and dept of enegry grew by over a thousand times in the same period. i dont remember what education or hhs did, but i'm guessing easily more than 25%, did your company budget grow 25% from 2001 to 2006 ?

also, from their beginning to now, medicare and medicaid both grew over 100 times in about 40 years, did your house increase in value 100 times in 40 years ?

during the same 40 year period, military spending has remained under 20%(the 2 wars not withstanding).

its flat out government agencies and programs that are making federal budgets skyrocket, military spending behaves itself by comparison.

leeholsen by all means post a link to your book (amazon.com or other site) and research.  I would be real interested in seeing how US military spending hasn't skyrocketed over the last decade with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and how the US is going to be in both countries for the foreseeable future.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on June 17, 2011, 06:04:47 PM
Another Ominous Newsletter...


Jun 01, 2011
The Death Spiral is Here


And, the Death Spiral is almost here for employment…soon, it will become clear to all that forced austerity measures will mean that the largest employer on the planet…government…can no longer sustain the global economy.
 

Cuffy the largest employer is the US government but if you look at where the employment in the US government has grown over the last couple of decades you will discover that the major source of new employees has been in the military, Homeland Security, Justice and Veterans Affairs.  In other words all the growth in US government employment over the last 2 decades can be attributed to the US military industrial complex.  The departments of Health and Human Services, Education and Social Security actually employ fewer people today than in 1974.  The Department of Agriculture employs fewer people today than in 1962.  The Department of the Interior employs fewer people today than in 1974. The Department of Transportation employs fewer people today than it did in 1969.  Even figures listed under "Others" were at times higher in years dating back to the 1940's.

Add to these numbers the number of people involved in contract employment tendered by the US government and the number of employees is millions more.  Of course the vast numbers of these contracts don't deal with cutting edge technology to be used by the Department of Agriculture.  The vast majority of these contracts will be related to the US military. 

Let's face it Cuffy if the US is ever going to reduce its debtload and deficit it is going to have to reduce its military budget and the jobs it outsources to the private sector.  In other words fewer nuc boats, fewer private contracts for new cutting edge technology of new nuc boats.  Either that or teach your children and grandchildren to speak Mandarin.   

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

nice, but likely not accurate.

i'm not certain about reducing numbers in education of HHS, but i am sure that many departments budgets have skyrocketed because i wrote a book on it and did the reaserch persoanlly.
the department of water transporatation grew 56% from 2001 to 2006 and dept of enegry grew by over a thousand times in the same period. i dont remember what education or hhs did, but i'm guessing easily more than 25%, did your company budget grow 25% from 2001 to 2006 ?

also, from their beginning to now, medicare and medicaid both grew over 100 times in about 40 years, did your house increase in value 100 times in 40 years ?

during the same 40 year period, military spending has remained under 20%(the 2 wars not withstanding).

its flat out government agencies and programs that are making federal budgets skyrocket, military spending behaves itself by comparison.

leeholsen take a look at the youtube link from CBSNews.  The US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld admits that the Defense department lost track of $2.3 TRILLION in 2001 and over years earlier.  Remember this is 2001, the day before 9/11/01, so if the US Defense Department was losing that much money that far back in time, I think it is same to assume that they are "misplacing" even more money now.  Maybe those stories about secret bases on the moon and Stargates to alien worlds are true.   :laugh:

The question is of course where did the money come from?  Even today the "official"US Defense Department budget is only about $700 billion.  To lose $2.3 TRILLION would be the equivalent of losing track of the entire US Defense Department budget for decades prior to 2001, something I would think would be impossible even in Washington, DC.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5624554252926849071#
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on June 17, 2011, 06:08:36 PM

Too many buttons.   :dh: :dh: :dh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 20, 2011, 02:04:34 PM
As the Chinese curse goes "May you live in INTERESTING times" so -

IS THE EU THE NEXT BELARUS?


Porter Stansberry: The next stage of the crisis is starting now
Monday, June 20, 2011


We're about to see a return to crisis-like conditions in the world's credit markets. This will devastate financial stocks. It should also hit commodity prices and commodity-related stocks hard. In today's Digest, I'll show you why I believe this will happen.

As longtime readers know, I write Friday's Digest personally. In general, I try my best to teach our subscribers something useful. I've always run my research company with a few simple principles in mind. Among them, I strive to provide you with the information I would expect if our roles were reversed. You should know… abiding by this principle often requires me to share information with you before I can be 100% certain it's correct.

That's the case with today's Digest. I want to show you the warning signs as I see them, right now. I want to guide you through my thinking process. And while I'll give you my predictions about what these things mean, I hope you'll realize that, as Yogi Berra famously said, predictions are tough – especially about the future.

The next stage in the ongoing global financial crisis will feature the collapse of both the Spanish and the Italian economies. This should occur within the next six months. Concurrently, I believe the "Chinese miracle" will be unmasked as mostly a fraud powered by a huge increase in bad lending from state-controlled banks.

Ironically, the coming wave of financial trouble will probably force people back into U.S. dollars. Gold will also do well. In the currency markets, I believe the euro will collapse in the second half of this year, as will the Australian dollar, which serves as a proxy for the Chinese economy.

I expect this next "down leg" in the world's markets to be more severe than the crisis of 2008, because the balance sheets of the Western democracies are now less prepared to manage the losses.

Finally, I believe the euro will simply cease to exist.

The first thing I want to show you is the share price of UniCredit. You have probably never heard of UniCredit, but it is a major European bank, with significant operations in eastern and southern Europe. UniCredit is based in Italy. I've been keeping my eye on UniCredit for years, for reasons I'll explain below. UniCredit is the ultimate "canary in the coal mine" of the world's global currency system.

Most people don't know that UniCredit is the direct descendent of Oesterreichische Credit-Anstalt, the largest bank in Eastern Europe before World War II. Translated the name means: Imperial Royal Privileged Austrian Credit-Institute for Commerce and Industry. It was a Rothschild bank. The family founded it 1855, and it became one of the most important banks in Europe.

Credit-Anstalt held assets and took deposits from all over Europe. In 1931, the bank failed as a direct result of the U.S.'s Smoot-Hawley tariff. The act crippled Germany's economy and led French investors to redeem all the capital they'd lent to the bank. The failure of Credit-Anstalt caused Austria to abandon the gold standard, which set off a series of economic dominoes. Germany left gold… then Great Britain… and finally, in 1933, so did America.

The failure of Credit-Anstalt is what really kicked off the Great Depression. I have long been convinced the failure of its successor bank – now called UniCredit – would presage the next global monetary collapse.

I first began warning investors about UniCredit's likely collapse and its historic role in the world's monetary history back in March 2010. Since then, the bank's shares have grown weaker and weaker. And since March, the shares have fallen off a cliff, hitting lows not seen since March 2009.
 The sudden weakness in UniCredit's shares (down 21% in the last several weeks) indicates to me that big trouble is brewing in Europe. I don't believe efforts to stop the crisis in Greece will work. The austerity measures undertaken in Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Greece have severely weakened these economies, causing loan losses to banks like UniCredit.

And if there's a run on UniCredit (and I believe there will be), the losses will be too large for Italy to manage without a huge international bailout. UniCredit has borrowed $300 billion from other European banks. And Italy's government already owes creditors more than 120% of GDP. There aren't any easy solutions to this problem.

Another warning comes from a friend who is a senior executive at a major Wall Street bank. He sees more high-yield bond deals than just about anyone else in the world. He told our Atlas 400 group last weekend that credit markets around the world were suddenly shutting down. Yields were moving up. Spreads (the cost to borrow above the sovereign rate) were getting wider for the first time since March 2009.

Why? Because the market knows that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to stop buying $85 billion-plus per month of U.S. Treasury debt. But the Treasury is going to continue to issue more debt. In total, 61% of the entire federal debt will mature within four years. That means roughly $10 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will have to be sold, plus whatever the total deficit adds up to over the next four years – maybe another $6 trillion.

It's difficult to imagine this amount of Treasury issuance won't have a big impact on the world's credit markets because these bonds always sell first and at the lowest yields. As these yields "back up" because of the large issuance, they should drain liquidity away from other issues, causing other bond prices to fall. This will reduce liquidity and make issuing debt more expensive across the credit spectrum.

China's boom since 2009 was fueled by massive domestic debt issuance, which was unsustainable and is reversing. In addition, one Chinese company after another is being revealed as a fraud – and then crashing. These are not isolated events. I have studied Chinese companies for more than a decade. Out of all the stocks I've analyzed closely, I've only seen a handful I didn't believe were fraudulent.

So far, none of the major Chinese banks have come under serious scrutiny. But I believe they will… and I believe major fraud will be discovered. Take the recent weakness in the shares of China Life Insurance (LFC), for example. This isn't a minor company. It's a $90 billion life insurance company. As fraud allegations spread into major Chinese financials, the entire underpinning of the Chinese boom will fall apart. It has all been fueled by debt and fixed-asset investments (land, buildings, equipment, and machinery). Consider just a few of these facts…

Fixed-asset investment remains greater than 50% of GDP in China, for the 12th year in a row. No other country has ever had more than nine years of this kind of sustained fixed-asset investment.

In the first five months of 2011, fixed-asset investment grew by 25.8% according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. That's $1.39 trillion worth of investment.

Jim Chanos, the famed short seller, says China is currently building 30 billion square feet of commercial real estate. That is enough to provide every person in China with a five-square-foot cubicle.

Jeremy Grantham, one of the world's most astute investors, points out that China has been purchasing gigantic quantities of raw materials. The scale of these purchases makes them impossible to sustain. China makes up 9.4% of the world's economy, but it is currently consuming 53% of the world's cement, 47% of the world's iron ore, and 46.9% of its coal.

A massive increase in China's domestic debt fueled this investment. In 2010, for example, Chinese banks extended $55 billion in loans – up 95% from the year before. Now, banking regulators are increasing reserve requirements, greatly reducing the amount of available credit. In May, lending was down 25% versus last year.

With Europe's crisis heating back up, with credit tightening in the U.S. (thanks to the end of quantitative easing), and with China's boom unraveling… it's time to be extremely cautious. I don't know when it will start… but we're entering another period of soaring volatility, increasing interest rate spreads, and falling stock and bond prices. How the authorities deal with these problems will set the stage for what happens next. If they try to paper over these continuing crises again – with new money-printing programs from the Federal Reserve – you can expect a massive inflation and what I call The End of America.

Our best hope for more stability and a return to prosperity is for people to realize that bailing out banks doesn't solve these problems. It only makes them worse. But… I'm not optimistic.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on June 21, 2011, 03:04:00 AM
As the Chinese curse goes "May you live in INTERESTING times" so -

IS THE EU THE NEXT BELARUS?


Porter Stansberry: The next stage of the crisis is starting now
Monday, June 20, 2011


We're about to see a return to crisis-like conditions in the world's credit markets. This will devastate financial stocks. It should also hit commodity prices and commodity-related stocks hard. In today's Digest, I'll show you why I believe this will happen.

As longtime readers know, I write Friday's Digest personally. In general, I try my best to teach our subscribers something useful. I've always run my research company with a few simple principles in mind. Among them, I strive to provide you with the information I would expect if our roles were reversed. You should know… abiding by this principle often requires me to share information with you before I can be 100% certain it's correct.

That's the case with today's Digest. I want to show you the warning signs as I see them, right now. I want to guide you through my thinking process. And while I'll give you my predictions about what these things mean, I hope you'll realize that, as Yogi Berra famously said, predictions are tough – especially about the future.

The next stage in the ongoing global financial crisis will feature the collapse of both the Spanish and the Italian economies. This should occur within the next six months. Concurrently, I believe the "Chinese miracle" will be unmasked as mostly a fraud powered by a huge increase in bad lending from state-controlled banks.

Ironically, the coming wave of financial trouble will probably force people back into U.S. dollars. Gold will also do well. In the currency markets, I believe the euro will collapse in the second half of this year, as will the Australian dollar, which serves as a proxy for the Chinese economy.

I expect this next "down leg" in the world's markets to be more severe than the crisis of 2008, because the balance sheets of the Western democracies are now less prepared to manage the losses.

Finally, I believe the euro will simply cease to exist.

The first thing I want to show you is the share price of UniCredit. You have probably never heard of UniCredit, but it is a major European bank, with significant operations in eastern and southern Europe. UniCredit is based in Italy. I've been keeping my eye on UniCredit for years, for reasons I'll explain below. UniCredit is the ultimate "canary in the coal mine" of the world's global currency system.

Most people don't know that UniCredit is the direct descendent of Oesterreichische Credit-Anstalt, the largest bank in Eastern Europe before World War II. Translated the name means: Imperial Royal Privileged Austrian Credit-Institute for Commerce and Industry. It was a Rothschild bank. The family founded it 1855, and it became one of the most important banks in Europe.

Credit-Anstalt held assets and took deposits from all over Europe. In 1931, the bank failed as a direct result of the U.S.'s Smoot-Hawley tariff. The act crippled Germany's economy and led French investors to redeem all the capital they'd lent to the bank. The failure of Credit-Anstalt caused Austria to abandon the gold standard, which set off a series of economic dominoes. Germany left gold… then Great Britain… and finally, in 1933, so did America.

The failure of Credit-Anstalt is what really kicked off the Great Depression. I have long been convinced the failure of its successor bank – now called UniCredit – would presage the next global monetary collapse.

I first began warning investors about UniCredit's likely collapse and its historic role in the world's monetary history back in March 2010. Since then, the bank's shares have grown weaker and weaker. And since March, the shares have fallen off a cliff, hitting lows not seen since March 2009.
 The sudden weakness in UniCredit's shares (down 21% in the last several weeks) indicates to me that big trouble is brewing in Europe. I don't believe efforts to stop the crisis in Greece will work. The austerity measures undertaken in Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Greece have severely weakened these economies, causing loan losses to banks like UniCredit.

And if there's a run on UniCredit (and I believe there will be), the losses will be too large for Italy to manage without a huge international bailout. UniCredit has borrowed $300 billion from other European banks. And Italy's government already owes creditors more than 120% of GDP. There aren't any easy solutions to this problem.

Another warning comes from a friend who is a senior executive at a major Wall Street bank. He sees more high-yield bond deals than just about anyone else in the world. He told our Atlas 400 group last weekend that credit markets around the world were suddenly shutting down. Yields were moving up. Spreads (the cost to borrow above the sovereign rate) were getting wider for the first time since March 2009.

Why? Because the market knows that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to stop buying $85 billion-plus per month of U.S. Treasury debt. But the Treasury is going to continue to issue more debt. In total, 61% of the entire federal debt will mature within four years. That means roughly $10 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will have to be sold, plus whatever the total deficit adds up to over the next four years – maybe another $6 trillion.

It's difficult to imagine this amount of Treasury issuance won't have a big impact on the world's credit markets because these bonds always sell first and at the lowest yields. As these yields "back up" because of the large issuance, they should drain liquidity away from other issues, causing other bond prices to fall. This will reduce liquidity and make issuing debt more expensive across the credit spectrum.

China's boom since 2009 was fueled by massive domestic debt issuance, which was unsustainable and is reversing. In addition, one Chinese company after another is being revealed as a fraud – and then crashing. These are not isolated events. I have studied Chinese companies for more than a decade. Out of all the stocks I've analyzed closely, I've only seen a handful I didn't believe were fraudulent.

So far, none of the major Chinese banks have come under serious scrutiny. But I believe they will… and I believe major fraud will be discovered. Take the recent weakness in the shares of China Life Insurance (LFC), for example. This isn't a minor company. It's a $90 billion life insurance company. As fraud allegations spread into major Chinese financials, the entire underpinning of the Chinese boom will fall apart. It has all been fueled by debt and fixed-asset investments (land, buildings, equipment, and machinery). Consider just a few of these facts…

Fixed-asset investment remains greater than 50% of GDP in China, for the 12th year in a row. No other country has ever had more than nine years of this kind of sustained fixed-asset investment.

In the first five months of 2011, fixed-asset investment grew by 25.8% according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. That's $1.39 trillion worth of investment.

Jim Chanos, the famed short seller, says China is currently building 30 billion square feet of commercial real estate. That is enough to provide every person in China with a five-square-foot cubicle.

Jeremy Grantham, one of the world's most astute investors, points out that China has been purchasing gigantic quantities of raw materials. The scale of these purchases makes them impossible to sustain. China makes up 9.4% of the world's economy, but it is currently consuming 53% of the world's cement, 47% of the world's iron ore, and 46.9% of its coal.

A massive increase in China's domestic debt fueled this investment. In 2010, for example, Chinese banks extended $55 billion in loans – up 95% from the year before. Now, banking regulators are increasing reserve requirements, greatly reducing the amount of available credit. In May, lending was down 25% versus last year.

With Europe's crisis heating back up, with credit tightening in the U.S. (thanks to the end of quantitative easing), and with China's boom unraveling… it's time to be extremely cautious. I don't know when it will start… but we're entering another period of soaring volatility, increasing interest rate spreads, and falling stock and bond prices. How the authorities deal with these problems will set the stage for what happens next. If they try to paper over these continuing crises again – with new money-printing programs from the Federal Reserve – you can expect a massive inflation and what I call The End of America.

Our best hope for more stability and a return to prosperity is for people to realize that bailing out banks doesn't solve these problems. It only makes them worse. But… I'm not optimistic.

Interesting article Cuffy, there is some truth to it, however Porter Stansberry's statements are often widely off the mark.  First UniCredit is indeed a large bank and has thousands of branches in central and eastern Europe, including the 'stans.  However in terms of profit or assets UniCredit doesn't make the top ten in Europe, it has dropped down the list over the last couple of years, supposedly due to management problems.

More importantly is the issue of fraud at the Chinese banks.  Over the last 6 months or so an increasing number of Chinese companies have been caught issuing fraudulent financial statements often with the assistance of their Chinese banks.  If a major Chinese bank gets caught issuing fraudulent financial statements that could signal a significant downturn in the Chinese economy.  How likely is it that a major Chinese bank will get caught?  It's very unlikely but with more and more debt being issued by Chinese banks it could happen.

The main reason that it is unlikely that a major Chinese bank will get caught issuing fraudulent financial statements is that any major Chinese bank is in partnership with the Chinese government or owned by the Chinese government.  The "Big Four" commercial banks in China, the Bank of China (BOC), the China Construction Bank (CCB), the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), are owned and run by the Chinese government.  There's really no way these banks could get caught issuing fraudulent financial statements unless the statements came from an inside source or a Wikileaks type operation. 

The smaller banks in China that aren't directly owned and controlled by some level of the Chinese government are still in partnership with the Chinese government.  The Chinese government will advance the banks money if needed at little or no interest, much the same as the Federal Reserve in the US does for American banks.  The difference is that the Chinese government will go much further to protect the Chinese banking industry looking weak and in need of help.  The American Securities and Exchange Commission or any other American agency is never going to be allowed to investigate a Chinese bank, a Chinese company maybe, a Chinese bank in China never.

An upside to the problems in the Chinese and EU banking industry that Stansberry doesn't mention is how it would help the American banking industry and economy.  If there are problems in the EU economy and banking industry at the same time as fraud is mounting in the Chinese economy and problems are discovered in the Chinese banking industry, where is the rest of the world going to put it's money and buy its goods?  There would be only one market left that could handle the infusion of money and that would be the USA. 

When there are economic problems in the world, governments, individuals and companies seek a safe haven.  If massive fraud were to be discovered in China and if the EU banks were in trouble the US banking industry and government would be inundated with cash.  Companies would abandon China and while some might go to India or some other third world low wage country, many would return to the US.  US unemployment would drop and the US economy would soar.  Bad news for the EU and China would be good news for the US.           
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 21, 2011, 07:27:18 AM
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2077139,00.html?xid=newsletter-daily

Countries run by dictators who control your freedom and can take everything away from you, including your life, will never come close to reaching their potential.

Google earth and fly over these cities and count cars or traffic jams - appears in most instances cars parked only at government buildings - seems central planners in Beijing misjudged how many Chinese workers and small business people could afford inflated NYC/Tokyo/Moscow prices for an average apartment or home or office/warehouse!  Vacant new cities and mixed use developments in an extremely overpopulated country???
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 21, 2011, 08:27:21 AM
Bad news for the EU and China would be good news for the US.         

The regulatory and paperwork burdens under the Obama administration including obscure sounding acts like OFCCP which have real teeth if the political correct hiring Nazis catch you "in violation" and the TAA or trade agreement act that mandate all components on any product sold to the any US Government Agency must be TAA compliant from TAA compliant countries (NOT from Red China, North Korea, etc)

If you sell $1M of goods to the government at say 4% Gross profit and earn $40K (Average real margins) and are determined to not be TAA compliant you can be fined treble damages of the amount of the sale or $3 Million USD unless you get a waiver in advance that there are no TAA compliant sources.  So you put yourself at $3M risk to earn $40K and you have no real way to be sure that the product is TAA compliant at the component level so you have to apply for waivers on just about everything you might sell adding a huge paperwork cost and time burden.

Bottom line is the US and EU companies go to China to buy low cost knock off manufacturing equipment that no one pays the Intellectual Property "IP" costs for (EU/US/Japan patented machine tools/software, manufacturing robots etc) and also completely circumvent US and EU labor laws, environmental laws - occupational safety and health laws, minimum wage laws and mandatory healthcare laws... and if times get tougher - you will only see this accelerate and congress and the senate are oblivious to this fact - don't see the outsourcing of jobs to India and China slowing any time soon - if anything we have seen this trend accelerate under the Obama administration and the Democrats are supposed to be the friends of the working man but really have been co-opted as well by Wall Street (Goldman Sachs, CitiGroup, JP Morgan Chase and BofA-Merrill Lynch etc).  Add a 35% US Corporate tax on top of all this regulatory burden and you are seeing US companies moving out of the USA just to survive with banking and more CEOs/Corporate management in Switzerland (Just Like HP IBM CISCO Microsoft and Oil/Energy Giants) to minimize taxes on offshore international earnings and CEO/C Level Officers taxation.

Know personally of a large apparel manufacturer that has about 4,000 employees around the Pacific Rim (Philippines primarily, Latin America (Not Mexico) and very little in China) with Design, Marketing, Administration HQ in NYC and distribution in Westchester county - all manufacturing engineering and operations now offshore maybe 300 USA employees if that - this seems to be the business success model for US and EU companies - 1,000 offshore workers for every 100 USA based workers and the USA jobs all require College level Degrees and management experience.  Latest report are Jobs in USA will not recover till 2020.

Unemployment progression map published by the US Mayors conference this week shows most of the USA now over 10% unemployment with a handfull of pockets of prosperity in Tech, Healthcare, Oil/Energy and Agribiz centers. Rest of the country seeing more NOT less unemployment so ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) spent Trillions yet joblessness increasing!

Obama 1 ironically looking like Bush 1 - a ONE Term president.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on July 07, 2011, 05:54:31 PM
And the moral of this story is ____________________ !

A jeweler's heirs are fighting the United States government for the right to keep a batch of rare and valuable "Double Eagle" $20 coins that date back to the Franklin Roosevelt administration. It's just the latest coin controversy to make headlines.

Philadelphian Joan Langbord and her sons say they found the 10 coins in 2003 in a bank deposit box kept by Langbord's father, Israel Switt, a jeweler who died in 1990. But when they tried to have the haul authenticated by the U.S. Treasury, the feds, um, flipped.

They said the coins were stolen from the U.S. Mint back in 1933, and are the government's property. The Treasury Department seized the coins, and locked them away at Fort Knox. The court battle is set to kick off this week.
The rare coins (pictured), first struck in 1850, show a flying eagle on one side and a figure representing liberty on the other. One such coin recently sold at auction for $7.6 million, meaning the Langbords' trove could be worth as much as $80 million.

The coins are part of a batch that were struck but then melted down after President Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard in 1933, during the Great Depression. Two were given to the Smithsonian Institution*, but a few more mysteriously escaped.

The government has long believed that Switt schemed with a corrupt cashier at the Mint to swipe the coins. They note that the deposit box in which the coins were found was rented six years after Switt's death, and that the family never paid inheritance tax on the coins.

A lawyer for the Langbords counters that the coins could have left the Mint legally since it was permissible to swap gold coins for gold bullion.

Authorities in the Roosevelt era twice looked into Switt's coin dealings, including his possession of Double Eagle coins. In 1944, Switt's license to deal scrap gold was revoked.

The battle over the Double Eagles is hardly the only recent coin contretemps. Two British metal-detecting enthusiasts are said to be locked in a bitter dispute over how to divide the profits from a horde of Iron Age gold coins that they unearthed together in eastern England in 2008.

And an 80-year-old California man was jailed in 2009 after allegedly hitting another man in the head with a metal pipe and firing a gun at a third man during a dispute over missing gold coins.

Some coin disputes involve more than wrangling over valuable collectors' items. In 2007, Secret Service and FBI agents raided an Indiana company called Liberty Dollar, in a bid to stamp out illegal currency. The firm was making "Ron Paul Silver Dollars," in honor of Rep. Ron Paul, whose presidential campaign advocates bringing back the gold standard.

And since we're talking about coins, here's a list of the ten most valuable coins you might find in your pocket change.

http://coins.about.com/od/uscoins/tp/errorvarieties.htm
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on July 22, 2011, 12:40:08 AM
mmm .... I would enjoy a double eagle ....

But, a 1916d or a 1942 over stamp would be nice.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on July 31, 2011, 04:05:13 PM
Help Ron Paul save the USA:

http://www.ronpaul2012.com/pages/debtceilingbetrayal3.html?pid=0729hf

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on August 01, 2011, 12:09:17 AM
With all this going on, I'm glad I'm back in the gold business again.   :)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 01, 2011, 04:16:17 PM
With all this going on, I'm glad I'm back in the gold business again.   :)

Hopefully you are watching your back if still in Mexico - Titanium Ore looks like Rocks to Them but Gold they put in their teeth and know what it is...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BCKev on August 01, 2011, 04:56:16 PM
With all this going on, I'm glad I'm back in the gold business again.   :)

Hopefully you are watching your back if still in Mexico - Titanium Ore looks like Rocks to Them but Gold they put in their teeth and know what it is...

Not to worry Cuff. I've been out of Mexico for over a year. Haven't heard any news on the titanium lately. Staked a huge magnetite claim just before I left, needs a lot of work but could turn out to be an elephant.
Back in more familiar territory now, mining gold in Canada, a lot closer to home.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 01, 2011, 05:00:30 PM
Gold= 1620,..., I say in 2 month ,.1700 ,...like walk in the park!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 01, 2011, 05:28:20 PM
With all this going on, I'm glad I'm back in the gold business again.   :)

Hopefully you are watching your back if still in Mexico - Titanium Ore looks like Rocks to Them but Gold they put in their teeth and know what it is...

Not to worry Cuff. I've been out of Mexico for over a year. Haven't heard any news on the titanium lately. Staked a huge magnetite claim just before I left, needs a lot of work but could turn out to be an elephant.
Back in more familiar territory now, mining gold in Canada, a lot closer to home.

Good to see you back in civilization - see Gold vs Fiat currency - NIA projecting Gold at $16,000 USD an ounce by end of the decade or 2020 thereabouts:

http://us.mg1.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.rand=6n4rit5u0iho5

So just is case NIA correct let me know if when you get title to productive land and mines - plenty of cash looking to hedge in case NIA correct here in the USofA - one of NIAs favorite picks are "junior gold miner stocks"  so any proven reserves and production and I am sure I can find some serious backing.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 02, 2011, 01:40:34 PM
Gold - $1651
Silver - $40.55

No real budget cuts and instead raising spending, means our economy is going to shit, the money printing is going to continue, dollar's value will plummet which means precious metals are going up in value whether you like it or not. The only thing that can hurt holders of gold is if our government will decide to confiscate it as they did in the thirties. Please don't talk to me any more about corruption in Russia. The US now is right up there with the Putin's group IMO. If some one like Ron Paul happens to win, and goes after the Fed and the rest of corrupt entities he will probably wind up the same way as John Kennedy did. God help us all.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 02, 2011, 01:47:05 PM
Quote
Gold - $1651
Silver - $40.55

F*ck!   :ROFL:  :party0011: :party0011:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 02, 2011, 02:30:55 PM
Gold - $1651
Silver - $40.55

No real budget cuts and instead raising spending, means our economy is going to shit, the money printing is going to continue, dollar's value will plummet which means precious metals are going up in value whether you like it or not. The only thing that can hurt holders of gold is if our government will decide to confiscate it as they did in the thirties. Please don't talk to me any more about corruption in Russia. The US now is right up there with the Putin's group IMO. If some one like Ron Paul happens to win, and goes after the Fed and the rest of corrupt entities he will probably wind up the same way as John Kennedy did. God help us all.

Yes, average people do not seem to realize that a President is limited by the powers of the Federal Reserve and by the powers of the Military Industrial complex.  Still it does not help the economy at all when we have a spend spend spend President like Obama.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 02, 2011, 03:48:14 PM
Gold - $1651
Silver - $40.55

No real budget cuts and instead raising spending, means our economy is going to shit, the money printing is going to continue, dollar's value will plummet which means precious metals are going up in value whether you like it or not. The only thing that can hurt holders of gold is if our government will decide to confiscate it as they did in the thirties. Please don't talk to me any more about corruption in Russia. The US now is right up there with the Putin's group IMO. If some one like Ron Paul happens to win, and goes after the Fed and the rest of corrupt entities he will probably wind up the same way as John Kennedy did. God help us all.

No, that is not going to happen.

I mean, yes; over the next decade; its going to be a rough ride; and you are not going to make money in the stock mkt unless you can time the peaks and valleys(i recommend streettalklive to help you w/ that for free); but the US will turn it around.

it will have to go thru a bunch of crap to get there, but its done it before; looks to be getting more and more on board to do it again and it still runs the world economy and thats not changing(sorry, china).

just fyi, i'm in bond funds and have a little short and have been since may. probably will stay until fall sometime or QE3 comes about.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on August 04, 2011, 10:37:08 AM
Stock Markets are in free fall worldwide... :coffeeread:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 10:44:19 AM
Stock Markets are in free fall worldwide... :coffeeread:

Brass

"...The problem with socialism is you always run out of other people money..."
(Margeret Tatcher)

Italy about to topple -->exit EURO!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903366504576486160703012234.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories

"As often happens in a crisis of confidence, the markets are not correctly valuing the merit of our credit," Mr. Berlusconi said. "Our economy is healthy. The country is economically and financially solid."

(http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-PA409_berlus_D_20110803122530.jpg)

Why dont we try something "unsocialistic" like, work , save (when the government doesnt take half your shit), frugality , and NOT spending more then you earn?

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 04, 2011, 10:53:29 AM
Just curious if any one knows what caused a sudden pullback in the price of gold right before 12PM today from $1682 to $1642 ?
That's a pretty big drop in just a few minutes, did Soros or somebody like that decide to take some profits or what?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BC on August 04, 2011, 10:56:08 AM
Just curious if any one knows what caused a sudden pullback in the price of gold right before 12PM today from $1682 to $1642 ?
That's a pretty big drop in just a few minutes, did Soros or somebody like that decide to take some profits or what?

Swiss and/or Japan selling gold to manufacture Franc and Yen?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 11:00:58 AM
Popular Swiss political party SVP , wants Switzerland to go back to the gold standard (they left it back in 2000)...

It took a DIRECT citizen vote to leave it, but seems the Swiss admit their mistake and the citizens demand  return, I expect  a referendum to be organized on the issue pretty soon when they collect enough signatures (first round).

Quote
I mean, yes; over the next decade; its going to be a rough ride; and you are not going to make money in the stock mkt unless you can time the peaks and valleys(i recommend streettalklive to help you w/ that for free); but the US will turn it around.

Still drinking the coolaid I see))

dead easy to make money.., short dollar and Euro against harder currencies.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 11:03:30 AM
Just curious if any one knows what caused a sudden pullback in the price of gold right before 12PM today from $1682 to $1642 ?
That's a pretty big drop in just a few minutes, did Soros or somebody like that decide to take some profits or what?

Its back to 1660 though,..,(I just checked)....1680->1642 is a total drop in the bucket...  compared to the balistic rise the last couple of days

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 11:23:57 AM
1659!

Its a bit volatile today! Happens,,..,crazy situation out there
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 04, 2011, 11:42:43 AM
short dollar and Euro against harder currencies.
How do you do that, JC?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 01:56:44 PM
short dollar and Euro against harder currencies.
How do you do that, JC?

3 ways

1) Options (American style or European style "put"),...
2) Futures *this is not an option* you are obliged to buy sell the underlying asset at maturity
3) Securities Lending (Sec Lending), ,,..mostly only for banks, as you need a license to do this.

Edit. removed option 4, to complicated!

For you leaves only 1 and 2, you have banks who specialize in giving you good spread and will real time daytrade with you, Saxo Bank (Danish) has a well known platform and a good reputation.

Most investment banks have supercomputing grids (toys you and me cannot personally afford) to calculate option price based on vareous quantitative formulas. But most quants are idiots, anyway so...,.., they are Keynesian!

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 04, 2011, 02:15:39 PM
short dollar and Euro against harder currencies.
How do you do that, JC?

Ed,

PM me your preferred email of choice these days and I will sent the latest Sovereign Society's FX (Foreign Exchange) Guru's latest email with a link to his course - not cheap but very thorough and Sovereign Society actually held in fairly high regard by people who do not want to trust their wealth and retirement years to Ben Bernanke and his boss Barry Obama.

Cheers,

Mike "Cufflinks"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 04, 2011, 02:19:56 PM
All American stock markets crash.

Dow   11,383.68   -512.76   -4.31%
Nasdaq   2,556.39   -136.68   -5.08%
S&P 500   1,200.07   -60.27   -4.78%


Recession again?  Goldman Sachs says it's a possibility.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/goldman-stalling-jobs-market-may-foreshadow-recession/

Remember after the last recession when companies like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and others failed and companies like Goldman Sachs were given billions of taxpayer dollars to survive?  If the US and world economy go into another recession and companies like Goldman Sachs show signs of going under is the US government going to give them billions of dollars again to save them? 

If they were too big to fail the first time around Goldman Sachs and others are definitely too big to fail now.  The US government may have no choice but to give more US taxpayer dollars to the large multinational companies to keep them solvent.   




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 02:25:05 PM
All American stock markets crash.

Dow   11,383.68   -512.76   -4.31%
Nasdaq   2,556.39   -136.68   -5.08%
S&P 500   1,200.07   -60.27   -4.78%


Recession again?  Goldman Sachs says it's a possibility.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/goldman-stalling-jobs-market-may-foreshadow-recession/

Remember after the last recession when companies like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and others failed and companies like Goldman Sachs were given billions of taxpayer dollars to survive?  If the US and world economy go into another recession and companies like Goldman Sachs show signs of going under is the US government going to give them billions of dollars again to save them? 

If they were too big to fail the first time around Goldman Sachs and others are definitely too big to fail now.  The US government may have no choice but to give more US taxpayer dollars to the large multinational companies to keep them solvent.

Dollar zone=game over!

Anyone delerious on some false sense of patriotism?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 02:27:53 PM

Only do plain vanilla type options,..,nothing fancy , keep it simple!

Read and read on how to go short,..,its not really that hard,..,again...., trust your own judgement.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 04, 2011, 02:29:59 PM
All American stock markets crash.

Dow   11,383.68   -512.76   -4.31%
Nasdaq   2,556.39   -136.68   -5.08%
S&P 500   1,200.07   -60.27   -4.78%


Recession again?  Goldman Sachs says it's a possibility.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/goldman-stalling-jobs-market-may-foreshadow-recession/

Remember after the last recession when companies like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and others failed and companies like Goldman Sachs were given billions of taxpayer dollars to survive?  If the US and world economy go into another recession and companies like Goldman Sachs show signs of going under is the US government going to give them billions of dollars again to save them? 

If they were too big to fail the first time around Goldman Sachs and others are definitely too big to fail now.  The US government may have no choice but to give more US taxpayer dollars to the large multinational companies to keep them solvent.

Must read report from "ShadowStats" check out the site - founder has a thriving business correcting major corporations forcasting and econometric models ever since US Govt got creative with CPI etc numbers to keep Social Security, Medicare and Fed and Military Retirees Pension COLAs artificially low.

Important shadowstats special report - Hopefully the real conservatives in the House and Senate will really dig in their heels on this and correct this before the final bell rings and our economy is really KO'ed.

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 02:31:45 PM
Stay away from the swinging dicks, and big talkers and gurus

Keep it simple, and vanilla,..., nothing exotic
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 04, 2011, 02:33:48 PM
All American stock markets crash.

Dow   11,383.68   -512.76   -4.31%
Nasdaq   2,556.39   -136.68   -5.08%
S&P 500   1,200.07   -60.27   -4.78%


Recession again?  Goldman Sachs says it's a possibility.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/04/goldman-stalling-jobs-market-may-foreshadow-recession/

Remember after the last recession when companies like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and others failed and companies like Goldman Sachs were given billions of taxpayer dollars to survive?  If the US and world economy go into another recession and companies like Goldman Sachs show signs of going under is the US government going to give them billions of dollars again to save them? 

If they were too big to fail the first time around Goldman Sachs and others are definitely too big to fail now.  The US government may have no choice but to give more US taxpayer dollars to the large multinational companies to keep them solvent.

Dollar zone=game over!

Anyone delerious on some false sense of patriotism?

Getting your schadenfreude jollies and gloating again JC?  :duh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 02:38:45 PM
Gold hitting 1700 hundred and my puts went in the money, when the EUR/CHF when under 1.13.

You kidding me?

Onyone looking to buy a second hand yacht?..., I am looking to upgrade mine))))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Herrie on August 04, 2011, 03:46:25 PM
Gold hitting 1700 hundred and my puts went in the money, when the EUR/CHF when under 1.13.

You kidding me?

Onyone looking to buy a second hand yacht?..., I am looking to upgrade mine))))
I offer you $ 1.000.000,-


ZW $ that is  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 04, 2011, 04:01:10 PM
Just curious if any one knows what caused a sudden pullback in the price of gold right before 12PM today from $1682 to $1642 ?
That's a pretty big drop in just a few minutes, did Soros or somebody like that decide to take some profits or what?

Its back to 1660 though,..,(I just checked)....1680->1642 is a total drop in the bucket...  compared to the balistic rise the last couple of days

overall. thats because QE 2 pushed everything up.  even gold would pullback some in that kind of selloff.

i've been hard on gold and silver long term, but short and medium term its a good idea to own some(10% is my max), the dips will keep rising . i just think my opportunities are still better on stocks if i'm very, very, very patient.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 04, 2011, 04:50:24 PM
Just curious if any one knows what caused a sudden pullback in the price of gold right before 12PM today from $1682 to $1642 ?
That's a pretty big drop in just a few minutes, did Soros or somebody like that decide to take some profits or what?

Its back to 1660 though,..,(I just checked)....1680->1642 is a total drop in the bucket...  compared to the balistic rise the last couple of days

overall. thats because QE 2 pushed everything up.  even gold would pullback some in that kind of selloff.

i've been hard on gold and silver long term, but short and medium term its a good idea to own some(10% is my max), the dips will keep rising . i just think my opportunities are still better on stocks if i'm very, very, very patient.

If you want to remain in Stocks or get back into Stocks I highly recommend the Motley Fool Investment Newsletter.  Those guys (two brothers) started I believe about 20 years ago and they have a very very impressive track record.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 04, 2011, 11:55:35 PM
Gold hitting 1700 hundred and my puts went in the money, when the EUR/CHF when under 1.13.

You kidding me?

Onyone looking to buy a second hand yacht?..., I am looking to upgrade mine))))
I offer you $ 1.000.000,-


ZW $ that is  :ROFL:

That wouldnt even get you a plastic replica from the toystore)))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 05, 2011, 12:00:06 AM
Gold hitting 1700 hundred and my puts went in the money, when the EUR/CHF when under 1.13.

You kidding me?

Onyone looking to buy a second hand yacht?..., I am looking to upgrade mine))))
I offer you $ 1.000.000,-


ZW $ that is  :ROFL:

That wouldnt even get you a plastic replica from the toystore)))

JC isn't that what you have now a 15" plastic yacht that you sail in the pond near your apartment.  Now you want to upgrade to a 24" plastic yacht.  In 8 or 10 years you will have saved up enough for a small remote controlled yacht.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 05, 2011, 12:21:12 AM
@wc, you forgot to flush again,

As newcommers might not know, my yacht is still parked in Nice (my previous home)...you can rent the yacht it if you want, but I only accept Euros,.., so that might be a problem for "fixed income" people like yourself))).
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 05, 2011, 12:27:30 AM
Lee
Quote
overall. thats because QE 2 pushed everything up

everything is up?  your holding your screen upside down son,.., that might explain why your graphs look a bit different))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 05, 2011, 11:21:11 AM
Gold hitting 1700 hundred and my puts went in the money, when the EUR/CHF when under 1.13.

You kidding me?

Onyone looking to buy a second hand yacht?..., I am looking to upgrade mine))))
I offer you $ 1.000.000,-


ZW $ that is  :ROFL:

That wouldnt even get you a plastic replica from the toystore)))

Beste Herrie,

I have a Star for sale and you can sail around JC. Off course it is a comfortable as a Super 7 and just as demanding.

But you already have a bride so better to stick a known vessel.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 05, 2011, 12:48:01 PM
AvHdb

You own this?  :o ,..nice.........

(http://yachtstar7.com/photos/star7-2.jpg)

So when do we race?

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 05, 2011, 12:49:33 PM
http://www.yachtstar7.com/yacht-star-7-video.html
Quote
Overview
"Star 7" has six staterooms. Two on the upper deck that are very large and spacious. Both have 42" flatscreen TVs and large heads. The twin beds can be joined to make a queen berth. There are four equal staterooms on the main deck. Three have twin beds that can be converted to queens and large heads. One has a queen bed and a large head. All of the staterooms have large windows and are well appointed. The wood through out is American maple.

I say we invite a couple of smokinghotnova's to inspect all that recreational area (bold highlighted)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 05, 2011, 07:56:08 PM

So when do we race?


Planning on qualifying for the Worlds in May 2012 in France.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 06, 2011, 05:54:20 AM

So when do we race?


Planning on qualifying for the Worlds in May 2012 in France.

Done,.., I will see you and your surfplank trying to make a horserace out of it!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 09:37:26 AM
FOX News: "Don't you all wish you had a lot of gold now!"
Gold is $1706 right now
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 10:43:46 AM
FOX News: "Don't you all wish you had a lot of gold now!"
Gold is $1706 right now

I was predicting,.., 1700 by  the end of the month,  :ROFL:, We are not even half way there.

Being stubborn (and stupid) and drinking Keynesian coolaid is bad for your wallet!

I think I will buy second yacht  :travel:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: el_guero on August 08, 2011, 10:48:10 AM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 10:50:33 AM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored: ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 10:51:02 AM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 10:52:25 AM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored:ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
I happen to think so too. What is their purpose and goal in your opinion, JC?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 10:53:42 AM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 10:58:02 AM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored:ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
I happen to think so too. What is there purpose and goal in your opinion, JC?

Simple,....the  power to dominate others
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 11:31:40 AM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Which would be illegal.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 12:00:08 PM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Which would be illegal.
which would be nothing new in the financial industry...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:07:20 PM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Which would be illegal.

Bullshit! Its legal, aslong as they are upfront about disclosure, but who takes the effort these days to perform due dillegence, certainly not Water CLosets
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 12:08:38 PM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Which would be illegal.
which would be nothing new in the financial industry...

True but JPMorgan currently has a number of legal issues facing it.  To get caught trying to manipulate or illegally profit from the gold market could land it in trouble with the SEC and other US financial regulatory agencies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-06/jpmorgan-says-lehman-s-8-6-billion-suit-must-be-heard-in-district-court.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:12:32 PM
@WC found a link (*claps hands*)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 12:14:49 PM
@WC found a link (*claps hands*)

I could follow your example and just post statements without any links. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:15:03 PM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored:ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
I happen to think so too. What is their purpose and goal in your opinion, JC?

Ed, I surely hope you dont live within city  limits,..., this ride is not going to be pretty
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:16:17 PM
@WC found a link (*claps hands*)

I could follow your example and just post statements without any links.

And my purpose in life is to educate a WC?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 12:27:22 PM
JP Morgan is now projecting gold at $2500 by the end of this year.

Anything is possible in this chaos,.., JP Morgan has possibly has probably some short-term puts on Gold and is floating this "advice".

Which would be illegal.

Bullshit! Its legal, aslong as they are upfront about disclosure, but who takes the effort these days to perform due dillegence, certainly not Water CLosets

The problem is that financial institutions particularly JPMorgan isn't always upfront with their disclosure.  Several years back when oil spiked to $150/barrel 60 Minutes did a piece on how JPMorgan was manipulating the oil market by buying up large quantities of oil and giving financial advice that oil was going even higher.  However JPMorgan didn't mention that they held huge physical stockpiles of oil. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/ending-moral-rot-on-wall-street-part-1-commentary-by-william-d-cohan.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 12:28:06 PM
@WC found a link (*claps hands*)

I could follow your example and just post statements without any links.

And my purpose in life is to educate a WC?

No to back up your statements.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:33:22 PM
@WC
Quote
No to back up your statements.

Because you forgot to read a history book about something that is common knowledge to every 6 grader?

Maybe YOU could give us some sound Keynesian advice (*cough*) you just drank out of your coolaid bottle? You being a banker and all (ahum)

I know your begging for knowlegde just like Oliver twist was asking for an extra bowl of porage,.., but maybe its time you did the hard work yourself, instead of getting it for free from me?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 12:38:35 PM
It would be a perfect time for the Chinese and Russians to tip  the economy over the edge by timing the dumping of their dollar reserves....., free markets are not buying the shit thats being sold to them on CSPAN or Brussels!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 12:53:45 PM
@WC
Quote
No to back up your statements.

Because you forgot to read a history book about something that is common knowledge to every 6 grader?

Maybe YOU could give us some sound Keynesian advice (*cough*) you just drank out of your coolaid bottle? You being a banker and all (ahum)

I know your begging for knowlegde just like Oliver twist was asking for an extra bowl of porage,.., but maybe its time you did the hard work yourself, instead of getting it for free from me?

Get knowledge from you?  :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:  You flip burgers at McDonald's.  I'm semi-retired and I've financed my retirement for the last decade by playing the stock market. 

There is something that you could help me with, I've always wondered what's in the special sauce on the Big Mac?


                  (http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT-UQxLSpzViR1JvCQDVdVZDuWmthiW-ZlZ1A_ElXbw-8HtU5Mv) 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 01:04:19 PM
@WC
Quote
You flip burgers at McDonald's

Laugh it up sunny boy,.., when hyperinflation hits we will see how much your money will buy at  McD's. I think your scared   shitless!


@WC
Quote
I'm semi-retired and I've financed my retirement for the last decade by playing the stock market.

If someone had followed your financial "advice" you have given, (posted since the start of this thread),  people would not have been happy.

But comming back to your url-link-fettish,.., again, its not my mission in life to educate you to the level of a 6 grader.

@WC
Quote
There is something that you could help me with, I've always wondered what's in the special sauce on the Big Mac?

True, we always give the special sauce to WC and pull the flush chain!  :coffeeread:



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 01:27:26 PM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored:ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
I happen to think so too. What is their purpose and goal in your opinion, JC?

Ed, I surely hope you dont live within city  limits,..., this ride is not going to be pretty
No, I live in a pretty rural area and between 3 German Shepherds and several guns and shotguns I could handle most of intruders as long as they don't come in large numbers. Plus if things get bad, I'm friends with some of my neighbors who also have dogs and guns so we'll have to stick together to defend our families and property. But I feel bad for good family people who live in urban areas... it's not gonna be pretty. Look at London today... One might say it's a different situation but I think it's all part of the wave of civil unrest that's gonna sweep Europe next, then the USA when things get really unravelled here.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 01:31:16 PM
@Ed
Quote
Look at London today... One might say it's a different situation but I think it's all part of the wave of civil unrest that's gonna sweep Europe next, then the USA when things get really unravelled here.

Some muslim was shooting a policeman (driveby) and the police shot back and he got killed.

And then his fellow muslim tourched down a city block in revenge, excuse me, the guy was trying to be a cop-killer!!!!

I thought we had some time till  Alts resetted in 2012 April,..,seems its going to unravel a lot sooner!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 02:16:51 PM
It was not a good day on the markets today. 

Dow   10,810.76   -633.85   -5.54%
Nasdaq   2,357.69   -174.72   -6.90%
S&P 500   1,119.46   -79.92   -6.66%


Gold   1,715.50   +66.70   +4.05%

The one good sign oil is down to just over $80/barrel
Oil   80.67   -6.21   -7.15%


http://finance.yahoo.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 08, 2011, 04:03:56 PM
Your favorite prez is going on TV to assure everyone he knows what he is doing.

I bet the Canadians and the rest of the world's media say they believe him.  "It is all Bush's fault."  "He did focus on getting the troops home and putting Americans to work before he pushed through his homosexual progressive agenda, SEE!  The stock market is doing great.  There!  That proves it."

We got a bunch of the highest educated people running the USA,

No  :censored:ing way they dont know what they do...., this is on purpose.

Maybe the rank-and-file idiots are clueless,..,but not the top-brass!
I happen to think so too. What is their purpose and goal in your opinion, JC?

Ed, I surely hope you dont live within city  limits,..., this ride is not going to be pretty
No, I live in a pretty rural area and between 3 German Shepherds and several guns and shotguns I could handle most of intruders as long as they don't come in large numbers. Plus if things get bad, I'm friends with some of my neighbors who also have dogs and guns so we'll have to stick together to defend our families and property. But I feel bad for good family people who live in urban areas... it's not gonna be pretty. Look at London today... One might say it's a different situation but I think it's all part of the wave of civil unrest that's gonna sweep Europe next, then the USA when things get really unravelled here.

looks like i need to be neighbors w/ ed.  in Houston, there's a group of losers that are robbing this one neighborhood in west Houston blind and i was thinking this weekend that i really need one more gun.  :)

not that i think things are going to get so bad i'm going  to need more  guns, but the bad economy is going to keep the crime rate a little higher than normal until it turns around and i think thats going to be 2 more years minimum and cops cant be everywhere.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 04:09:30 PM
@Lee
Quote
not that i think things are going to get so bad ,,but the bad economy is [SNIP] until it turns around and i think thats going to be 2 more years minimum

Ha ha Lee, you keep selling the feel good story,..,  good thing we have your MO on record in this thread....

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_SMVUP0XbarU/SroDw0tboqI/AAAAAAAAAEA/AEBWPEjU1BY/s400/ostrich.jpg)

Love your positive outlook)) Cheers Lee  :) ;D



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 08, 2011, 04:14:39 PM
It was not a good day on the markets today. 

Dow   10,810.76   -633.85   -5.54%
Nasdaq   2,357.69   -174.72   -6.90%
S&P 500   1,119.46   -79.92   -6.66%


Gold   1,715.50   +66.70   +4.05%

The one good sign oil is down to just over $80/barrel
Oil   80.67   -6.21   -7.15%


http://finance.yahoo.com/

It is now a very good buying opportunity.  I guarantee that the real pros are licking their chops and cannot wait to get back into this market...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 08, 2011, 04:20:30 PM
Buy GOLD and GUNS:

Looks like it is pay the piper day - but really with USA corporations sitting on record global profits (all their new workers are in China and India making minimal wages) just wall street shaking out the nervous nellies, the margin buyers and shorts at fire sale prices - only to sell back to them in full price a few months or a year or two from now - and -the Multinationals will get their tax amnesty holiday from Obama and the Dumbocrats and the Republicants will go along with Big Business and Wall Street to unlock their $2.5 Trillion "trapped" overseas to start creating some jobs here so that the same hordes of disaffected urban youths don't rob their wives while out shopping or their kids at school and themselves on the golf courses!

Dow plunges more than 600 points after downgrade
Stocks plunge after S&P downgrade; Dow down 634; Europe, economy fears send Treasurys, gold up


Gold sets all time new record high prices:

The price of Treasurys rose sharply, and yields, which move in the opposite direction from price, fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.34 percent from 2.57 percent Friday. That matches its low for the year, reached last week.

"This is largely a flight to safety," said Thomas Simons, money market economist with Jefferies & Co. "The bond market is really trading off of what's going on in the stock market." Money flowed out of stocks and into Treasurys.

Gold set a record. It rose $61.40 to settle at $1,713.20.

Crude oil, natural gas and other commodities fell sharply on worries that a weaker global economy will mean less demand. Oil fell 6.4 percent to settle at $81.31 per barrel.

Fear is spreading quickly through the market, said Dimitre Genov, senior portfolio manager with Artio Global Investors. "It's becoming a vicious cycle and could feed into consumers reducing their demand as well."

The Dow was down 5.5 percent a 10,809.85. The sharp drop extended Wall Street's almost uninterrupted decline since late July, when the Dow was flirting with 13,000. It fell below 11,000 for the first time since November.

The S&P 500 fell 79.92, or 6.7 percent, to 1,119.49. The Nasdaq composite index fell 174.72, or 6.9 percent, to 2,357.69.

Stock markets in Asia began Monday's global rout. The main stock index fell almost 4 percent in South Korea and more than 2 percent in Japan. European markets opened later and fell, too, with Germany down 5 percent and France 4.7 percent.

In the U.S., stocks fell even as Moody's, another major credit rating agency, stood by its top rating of Aaa for the United States. It said it could downgrade the U.S. if it doesn't cut its deficit, "but it is early to conclude that such measures will not be forthcoming."

Financial markets also did not appear comforted by an afternoon statement by President Barack Obama, who said Washington needs more "common sense and compromise" to tame its debt.

"Markets will rise and fall," he said. "But this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a triple-A country."

S&P, in its downgrade, criticized dysfunction in the American political system. The downgrade wasn't a total surprise but came when investors were already feeling nervous about the U.S. economy and European debt, among other problems.

Last week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 700 points. That was its biggest weekly point loss since October 2008, during the financial crisis. Counting Monday, the Dow has dropped in 10 of the last 12 trading days. It is down more than 1,900 points, or 15 percent, since July 21.

The Russell 2000 index of small stocks has now lost nearly 25 percent from its most recent high on April 29. A decline of 10 percent or more off recent highs is considered to be a correction. But a drop of 20 percent or more is said to be the start of a bear market.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both down about 18 percent since the end of April. The Dow is down 16 percent.

The last bear market for the S&P 500 ran from October 2007 until March 2009. The index lost 57 percent of its value during the downturn.

S&P on Monday downgraded mortgage lenders Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other agencies linked to long-term U.S. debt. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about half of all U.S. mortgages. Their downgrade could eventually mean higher mortgage rates.

Worries about weaker profits that could result from a slowing economy have slammed the financial industry since late July. As a group, financial stocks in the S&P 500 index fell 10 percent on Monday to their lowest level since July 2009.

Bank of America plunged 20.3 percent, to $6.51, after AIG filed suit against the bank. The insurer alleged Bank of America sold it overvalued mortgage-backed securities. The bank denied the allegations. Its stock is down 51 percent this year, from $13.34.

Stocks in other industries whose profits are closely tied to the strength of the economy also fell sharply. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 fell 8.3 percent, for example.

The smallest losses came in safer industries such as consumer staples whose profits tend to be steadier, regardless of the economy. Even in a bad economy people will still buy things like toothpaste and bread.

The Vix index, a measure of fear among investors, shot up 47 percent to its highest level since May 2010. The index shows how worried investors are that the S&P 500 will drop over the next 30 days. It does this by measuring prices for stock options that investors can buy to help protect their portfolios.

Investors are also worried that Italy or Spain could become the next European countries to have trouble repaying its debts. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already received bailout loans because of Europe's 21-month-old debt crisis.

The fears have pushed investors to shun Spanish and Italian bonds, which led to higher yields on the bonds. That resulted in even higher borrowing costs for the countries.

The European Central Bank stepped in Monday and bought bullions of euros worth of their bonds. The move helped to lower yields on Spanish and Italian bonds, at least temporarily.

Seeking to avert panic spreading across financial markets, the finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations issued a joint statement Monday saying they were committed to taking all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth.

"We will remain in close contact throughout the coming weeks and cooperate as appropriate, ready to take action to ensure financial stability and liquidity in financial markets," they said.

Worries about the U.S. economic recovery have been building since the government said that economic growth was far weaker in the first half of 2011 than economists expected.

The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate from April through June, below economists' expectations. It expanded at just a 0.4 percent rate in the first quarter. The first half of 2011 was the slowest since the end of the recession.

Then reports showed that the manufacturing and services industries barely grew in July. Job growth was better than economists expected last month. But the 117,000 jobs created in July were still well below the 215,000 that employers added in February, March and April, on average.

The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday, but economists don't expect much to come out of the meeting. The central bank's key interest rate is already at a record of nearly zero, where it has been since 2008.

The Fed has also already said that it plans to keep rates low for "an extended period." Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month that the Fed could step in to help the economy if it further weakened.

Fears about a weaker U.S. economy have overshadowed the profit growth that companies have reported for the second quarter. For the 441 companies in the S&P 500 that have already reported, earnings rose 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Revenue growth has also topped 10 percent for the first time in a year.

Verizon Communications Inc. fell 3.9 percent after it was unable to come to terms with 45,000 workers on health care costs, pensions and other issues.

More than 69 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated trading volume was heavy at 9.7 billion shares, nearly triple the volume in early July.

AP Business Writers Matthew Craft, David K. Randall and Daniel Wagner contributed to this report.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 04:20:37 PM
It was not a good day on the markets today. 

Dow   10,810.76   -633.85   -5.54%
Nasdaq   2,357.69   -174.72   -6.90%
S&P 500   1,119.46   -79.92   -6.66%


Gold   1,715.50   +66.70   +4.05%

The one good sign oil is down to just over $80/barrel
Oil   80.67   -6.21   -7.15%


http://finance.yahoo.com/

It is now a very good buying opportunity.  I guarantee that the real pros are licking their chops and cannot wait to get back into this market...

The stock market opens at 06:30 EDT tomorrow.  I'll be on my computer and watching the opening numbers for bargains. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 04:23:12 PM
It was not a good day on the markets today. 

Dow   10,810.76   -633.85   -5.54%
Nasdaq   2,357.69   -174.72   -6.90%
S&P 500   1,119.46   -79.92   -6.66%


Gold   1,715.50   +66.70   +4.05%

The one good sign oil is down to just over $80/barrel
Oil   80.67   -6.21   -7.15%


http://finance.yahoo.com/

It is now a very good buying opportunity.  I guarantee that the real pros are licking their chops and cannot wait to get back into this market...

The stock market opens at 06:30 EDT tomorrow.  I'll be on my computer and watching the opening numbers for bargains.

I am framing this quote!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 04:23:52 PM
Buy GOLD and GUNS:

Looks like it is pay the piper day - but really with USA corporations sitting on record global profits (all their new workers are in China and India making minimal wages) just wall street shaking out the nervous nellies, the margin buyers and shorts at fire sale prices - only to sell back to them in full price a few months or a year or two from now - and -the Multinationals will get their tax amnesty holiday from Obama and the Dumbocrats and the Republicants will go along with Big Business and Wall Street to unlock their $2.5 Trillion "trapped" overseas to start creating some jobs here so that the same hordes of disaffected urban youths don't rob their wives while out shopping or their kids at school and themselves on the golf courses!

Dow plunges more than 600 points after downgrade
Stocks plunge after S&P downgrade; Dow down 634; Europe, economy fears send Treasurys, gold up


Gold sets all time new record high prices:

The price of Treasurys rose sharply, and yields, which move in the opposite direction from price, fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.34 percent from 2.57 percent Friday. That matches its low for the year, reached last week.

"This is largely a flight to safety," said Thomas Simons, money market economist with Jefferies & Co. "The bond market is really trading off of what's going on in the stock market." Money flowed out of stocks and into Treasurys.

Gold set a record. It rose $61.40 to settle at $1,713.20.

Crude oil, natural gas and other commodities fell sharply on worries that a weaker global economy will mean less demand. Oil fell 6.4 percent to settle at $81.31 per barrel.

Fear is spreading quickly through the market, said Dimitre Genov, senior portfolio manager with Artio Global Investors. "It's becoming a vicious cycle and could feed into consumers reducing their demand as well."

The Dow was down 5.5 percent a 10,809.85. The sharp drop extended Wall Street's almost uninterrupted decline since late July, when the Dow was flirting with 13,000. It fell below 11,000 for the first time since November.

The S&P 500 fell 79.92, or 6.7 percent, to 1,119.49. The Nasdaq composite index fell 174.72, or 6.9 percent, to 2,357.69.

Stock markets in Asia began Monday's global rout. The main stock index fell almost 4 percent in South Korea and more than 2 percent in Japan. European markets opened later and fell, too, with Germany down 5 percent and France 4.7 percent.

In the U.S., stocks fell even as Moody's, another major credit rating agency, stood by its top rating of Aaa for the United States. It said it could downgrade the U.S. if it doesn't cut its deficit, "but it is early to conclude that such measures will not be forthcoming."

Financial markets also did not appear comforted by an afternoon statement by President Barack Obama, who said Washington needs more "common sense and compromise" to tame its debt.

"Markets will rise and fall," he said. "But this is the United States of America. No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a triple-A country."

S&P, in its downgrade, criticized dysfunction in the American political system. The downgrade wasn't a total surprise but came when investors were already feeling nervous about the U.S. economy and European debt, among other problems.

Last week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 700 points. That was its biggest weekly point loss since October 2008, during the financial crisis. Counting Monday, the Dow has dropped in 10 of the last 12 trading days. It is down more than 1,900 points, or 15 percent, since July 21.

The Russell 2000 index of small stocks has now lost nearly 25 percent from its most recent high on April 29. A decline of 10 percent or more off recent highs is considered to be a correction. But a drop of 20 percent or more is said to be the start of a bear market.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both down about 18 percent since the end of April. The Dow is down 16 percent.

The last bear market for the S&P 500 ran from October 2007 until March 2009. The index lost 57 percent of its value during the downturn.

S&P on Monday downgraded mortgage lenders Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other agencies linked to long-term U.S. debt. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about half of all U.S. mortgages. Their downgrade could eventually mean higher mortgage rates.

Worries about weaker profits that could result from a slowing economy have slammed the financial industry since late July. As a group, financial stocks in the S&P 500 index fell 10 percent on Monday to their lowest level since July 2009.

Bank of America plunged 20.3 percent, to $6.51, after AIG filed suit against the bank. The insurer alleged Bank of America sold it overvalued mortgage-backed securities. The bank denied the allegations. Its stock is down 51 percent this year, from $13.34.

Stocks in other industries whose profits are closely tied to the strength of the economy also fell sharply. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 fell 8.3 percent, for example.

The smallest losses came in safer industries such as consumer staples whose profits tend to be steadier, regardless of the economy. Even in a bad economy people will still buy things like toothpaste and bread.

The Vix index, a measure of fear among investors, shot up 47 percent to its highest level since May 2010. The index shows how worried investors are that the S&P 500 will drop over the next 30 days. It does this by measuring prices for stock options that investors can buy to help protect their portfolios.

Investors are also worried that Italy or Spain could become the next European countries to have trouble repaying its debts. Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already received bailout loans because of Europe's 21-month-old debt crisis.

The fears have pushed investors to shun Spanish and Italian bonds, which led to higher yields on the bonds. That resulted in even higher borrowing costs for the countries.

The European Central Bank stepped in Monday and bought bullions of euros worth of their bonds. The move helped to lower yields on Spanish and Italian bonds, at least temporarily.

Seeking to avert panic spreading across financial markets, the finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations issued a joint statement Monday saying they were committed to taking all necessary measures to support financial stability and growth.

"We will remain in close contact throughout the coming weeks and cooperate as appropriate, ready to take action to ensure financial stability and liquidity in financial markets," they said.

Worries about the U.S. economic recovery have been building since the government said that economic growth was far weaker in the first half of 2011 than economists expected.

The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate from April through June, below economists' expectations. It expanded at just a 0.4 percent rate in the first quarter. The first half of 2011 was the slowest since the end of the recession.

Then reports showed that the manufacturing and services industries barely grew in July. Job growth was better than economists expected last month. But the 117,000 jobs created in July were still well below the 215,000 that employers added in February, March and April, on average.

The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday, but economists don't expect much to come out of the meeting. The central bank's key interest rate is already at a record of nearly zero, where it has been since 2008.

The Fed has also already said that it plans to keep rates low for "an extended period." Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month that the Fed could step in to help the economy if it further weakened.

Fears about a weaker U.S. economy have overshadowed the profit growth that companies have reported for the second quarter. For the 441 companies in the S&P 500 that have already reported, earnings rose 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier. Revenue growth has also topped 10 percent for the first time in a year.

Verizon Communications Inc. fell 3.9 percent after it was unable to come to terms with 45,000 workers on health care costs, pensions and other issues.

More than 69 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated trading volume was heavy at 9.7 billion shares, nearly triple the volume in early July.

AP Business Writers Matthew Craft, David K. Randall and Daniel Wagner contributed to this report.

What about guns?  Any recommendations?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 04:29:10 PM
Jesus H C.  WC,.., you cant quote even if your life depended on it!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 04:33:29 PM
Jesus H C.  WC,.., you cant quote even if your life depended on it!

And yet I still quote better than you.  Admittedly that's not saying much.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 08, 2011, 04:35:18 PM
Google the Sig Sauer Academy in Exeter NH -great advanced firearms training and - German Quality firearms at NH Sales Tax Free prices - also the Italian Baretta, good old Colt Arms and Sturm Ruger (Also In New Hampshire) and Remington shotguns fun for skeet and bird hunting (fowling).

Taser (kind that shoot electrodes with up to 250K volt shock) still best for dropping an attacker wacked out on drugs crystal meth heroin and alchohol who will not feel a gun shot - then they make an easier target to shoot - less ammo wasted.

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 04:38:04 PM
Jesus H C.  WC,.., you cant quote even if your life depended on it!

And yet I still quote better than you.

Now THATS funny! Old age and retirement has its perception problems. Hope you can make your ISP internet subscription payment at the end of  the month))). We would really miss your linko-fettish-because-i-dropped-out-of-highschool and not to forget your priceles Keynesian economic advises on how to invest  money!  :) ;D :thumbsup:

(shakey old grandpa voice) "...back in the day.....",....,"...we didnt need no stinkin gold..."

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 08, 2011, 04:43:09 PM
Google the Sig Sauer Academy in Exeter NH -great advanced firearms training and - German Quality firearms at NH Sales Tax Free prices - also the Italian Baretta, good old Colt Arms and Sturm Ruger (Also In New Hampshire) and Remington shotguns fun for skeet and bird hunting (fowling).

Taser (kind that shoot electrodes with up to 250K volt shock) still best for dropping an attacker wacked out on drugs crystal meth heroin and alchohol who will not feel a gun shot - then they make an easier target to shoot - less ammo wasted.

When I go to Los Angeles or Las Vegas I like to go to a gun range and fire off a few clips.  Never used a Sig but I've probably fired off several dozen clips using a Glock.  Always fun almost wish I could do it in Canada but not a chance the gun laws would change here.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 08, 2011, 05:38:42 PM
I own Sig Sauer for more than 20 years. Great gun!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 08, 2011, 09:26:58 PM
Everybody around me owns  a SIG550

I just lOOOOVE Switzerland!!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 09, 2011, 03:27:53 PM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 09, 2011, 03:45:33 PM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.
my Sig is bigger than yours, Lee!  :chuckle:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 10, 2011, 12:47:58 AM
At least the Swiss got 3 things right

1) Gold

2) Guns
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIG_SG_550
The SG 550 is an assault rifle manufactured by Swiss Arms AG (formerly Schweizerische Industrie Gesellschaft) of Neuhausen, Switzerland (SG is an abbreviation for Sturmgewehr, or "assault rifle").
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Stgw_90.jpg/300px-Stgw_90.jpg)

3) public open vote and direct democracy
In some parts and villages, voting without being fully armed is not allowed (discourages miscounting of votes)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 10, 2011, 01:59:26 AM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.

If you are talking about handguns then I prefer the Glock 17 which is the Platinum standard of handguns and which has just been updated.  More police forces worldwide use the Glock 17 than any other weapon.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 10, 2011, 02:04:58 AM
At least the Swiss got 3 things right

1) Gold

2) Guns
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIG_SG_550
The SG 550 is an assault rifle manufactured by Swiss Arms AG (formerly Schweizerische Industrie Gesellschaft) of Neuhausen, Switzerland (SG is an abbreviation for Sturmgewehr, or "assault rifle").
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Stgw_90.jpg/300px-Stgw_90.jpg)

3) public open vote and direct democracy
In some parts and villages, voting without being fully armed is not allowed (discourages miscounting of votes)

Very nice weapon!!

Heckler and Koch 416 is the assault rifle which SEAL team 6 used to kill OBL:

Caliber: 5.56x45mm NATO
Action: Gas operated, rotating bolt
Overall length (stock collapsed/extended): 10" barrel: 686 / 785 mm;14" barrel:
Barrel lengths: 10.5" / 267mm; 14.5" / 368mm; 16.5" /419mm and 20" / 508mm
Weight: 3.31 kg w. 10.5" barrel, 3.5kg w 14.5" barrel
Rate of fire: 700-900 rounds per minute
Magazine capacity: 30 rounds

 

Following the revision of the OICWBlock 1 / XM8 program, the Heckler & Koch company decided to enter theUS military and law enforcement markets with the alternative design, which, in fact, looks quite promising. Based on the experience, gained during successful upgrade program of the British SA80 / L85A1 program, HK decided to cure the existing M16 rifles and  M4 carbines from most of their problems, inherent to this 40-years old design.The key improvements, made by HK, are their patented short-stroke gas piston system, borrowed from HK G36 rifle. This system replaced the direct gas system of standard M16 rifle, so no powder residue will remain in the receiver even after long shooting sessions. The "new"gas system also is self-regulating and will work reliably with any barrel length. Other improvements include new buffer assembly, improved bolt, and a cold hammer forged barrel, as well as free-floating hand guard with integral Picatinny-type rails. Originally developed as a "drop-in" upper receiver assembly for any standard M16/M4 type lower receiver, HK416 is also available as a complete weapon, with HK-madelower receivers. Current (late 2005) models include carbines with 10.5" and14.5" barrels, and 16.5" barreled carbine and 20" barreled riflewill be added later.

Another interesting development, which is apparently based on the upscaled HK416 design, is the HK417 - the 7.62x51 NATO rifle that combines AR-15/M16 type ergonomics, layout and handling with improved reliability of HK-made and designed gas piston system. This rifle probably will use HK G3-typemagazines. If the rumors about HK417 are true, the 5.56mm HK416 / 7.62mm HK417 combination will be a direct rival to the newest FN SCAR system.

HK416 is a gas operated, selective fired weapon of modular design. It uses short-stroke gas piston that operates the 7-lug rotating bolt. Receiver ismade from high grade aluminium alloy. Combination-type safety / fire selector allows for single shots and full automatic mode. Hk416 retains all M16-style controls, including last round bolt hold-open device, rear-based charging handle and magazine release button on the right side of the magazine well. HK416 is fitted with four Picatinny rails as standard, and may accept any type of sighting devices on STANAG-1913 compliant mounts. It also can accept modified HK AG36/AG-C 40mm grenade launcher, which is clamped directly to bottom rail. Buttstock is of typical M4 design, multi-position telescoped.


 Rating:691+




http://world.guns.ru/assault/de/hk-416-e.html (http://world.guns.ru/assault/de/hk-416-e.html)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 10, 2011, 09:50:06 AM
Gold is at 1,788.50 right now
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 10, 2011, 10:13:39 AM
Gold is at: 1797.30
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 10, 2011, 02:47:31 PM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.
my Sig is bigger than yours, Lee!  :chuckle:

you know, it probably is. mine's just a 22. i got a .45 thug stopper, but the accuracy of that sig is so good; i love it.

and on gold, its unbelievabe. chart says its so over bought, a pullback is going to chop 20% off in any rally, but a rally just isnt coming.

we're probably around 5 standard deviations down now and anyone who took stats will tell you a snap back rally is over due, but as one of my financial advisors is fond of saying; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

when that rally comes, i'll sell some more stocks/funds and buy gold with it unless qe 3 comes. we are on track for probably another 10% down, minimum.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 10, 2011, 04:45:18 PM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.
my Sig is bigger than yours, Lee!  :chuckle:

you know, it probably is. mine's just a 22. i got a .45 thug stopper, but the accuracy of that sig is so good; i love it.

and on gold, its unbelievabe. chart says its so over bought, a pullback is going to chop 20% off in any rally, but a rally just isnt coming.

we're probably around 5 standard deviations down now and anyone who took stats will tell you a snap back rally is over due, but as one of my financial advisors is fond of saying; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

when that rally comes, i'll sell some more stocks/funds and buy gold with it unless qe 3 comes. we are on track for probably another 10% down, minimum.
Lee, I'm not an expert, but IMO gold might only come down if our economy starts turning around, the Fed stops printing money and the stock market goes up naturally without any QE. Somehow I don's see this happening unless some one like Ron Paul becomes our president. It saddens me greatly to say this, but IMO the USA is on the way to economic crisis that hasn't been seen here ever before. At this point it will take a miracle to avoid this from happening. Sure, America is not going to disappear, it will go through some rough times and then will start coming back in several years possibly with the new currency and new politicians running the country. It may get better or it may get worse, no one really knows. But to think that it's business as usual at this point is naive IMO. Once hyperinflation hits us (and I think it's a real possibility), every one is gonna run to gold and there will be lines to buy it at coin stores.... that's the time to sell actually.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 10, 2011, 05:25:17 PM
@Delusional
Quote
and on gold, its unbelievabe. chart says its so over bought, a pullback is going to chop 20% off in any rally, but a rally just isnt coming.

If your theories dont fit reality,....,maybe time to change theory!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 10, 2011, 05:27:38 PM
Gold is at: 1797.30

@Ed,.., i predicted 1800 at the end of the month,..we are not even fuuucking halfway there. and its 1797....
 
the dumb :censored: s are gonna get whiped out!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 10, 2011, 05:29:39 PM
1802

anyone who is still a keynesian is a fuuucking retard
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 10, 2011, 06:42:13 PM
1802

anyone who is still a keynesian is a fuuucking retard

That would certainly be Economist Krugman of Princeton University who is total A whole.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 11, 2011, 06:28:19 AM
1855


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 11, 2011, 07:20:54 AM
1855
where do you see that, JC? I'm looking on kitco and it is $1775.00
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 11, 2011, 08:18:00 AM
Gold is bought and sold on fear - right now media putting a lot of fear into people.  This is a good thing if your high on gold.  But better to day trade gold than just hold onto it.  The swings are very big each day.  I see gold at 1,763 right now but has fallen more than 1% today.  But by end of day could be 1,900.  Gold is a great thing to day trade when fear is everywhere. 

A lot of money has been made this month on shorting USA housing stocks.  One unnamed investor shorted Pulte and KB homes and made more than $300 million past three weeks.  He placed his wager through a big investment firm to keep his name hidden. He / she only put up $5M - not a bad return for 3 weeks.  Pulte was the largest home builder in the USA and will be bankrupt soon.  Still get a make a fortune shorting this stock.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 11, 2011, 10:03:37 AM
1762

Gold is volatile, violent mood swings,

I look at  http://goldprice.org/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 11, 2011, 10:07:49 AM
1762

Gold is volatile, violent mood swings,

I look at  http://goldprice.org/
weird, Kitco doesn't show that gold has ever risen to the price you quoted (1855). around $1817 was the highest according to kitco.com
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 11, 2011, 10:10:58 AM
Depends on the market,..., If a future matures at strike 1855 ,someone HAS to buy/sell it at 1855, so that individual trade is listed, some tickers might discard it,.., bloomberg is famous for such "corrections"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 11, 2011, 10:15:07 AM
Depends on the market,..., If a future matures at strike 1855 ,someone HAS to buy/sell it at 1855, so that individual trade is listed, some tickers might discard it,.., bloomberg is famous for such "corrections"
I see, thanks!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 11, 2011, 11:20:30 AM

i recommend a sig too. its been my favorite since i bought it.
my Sig is bigger than yours, Lee!  :chuckle:

you know, it probably is. mine's just a 22. i got a .45 thug stopper, but the accuracy of that sig is so good; i love it.

and on gold, its unbelievabe. chart says its so over bought, a pullback is going to chop 20% off in any rally, but a rally just isnt coming.

we're probably around 5 standard deviations down now and anyone who took stats will tell you a snap back rally is over due, but as one of my financial advisors is fond of saying; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

when that rally comes, i'll sell some more stocks/funds and buy gold with it unless qe 3 comes. we are on track for probably another 10% down, minimum.
Lee, I'm not an expert, but IMO gold might only come down if our economy starts turning around, the Fed stops printing money and the stock market goes up naturally without any QE. Somehow I don's see this happening unless some one like Ron Paul becomes our president. It saddens me greatly to say this, but IMO the USA is on the way to economic crisis that hasn't been seen here ever before. At this point it will take a miracle to avoid this from happening. Sure, America is not going to disappear, it will go through some rough times and then will start coming back in several years possibly with the new currency and new politicians running the country. It may get better or it may get worse, no one really knows. But to think that it's business as usual at this point is naive IMO. Once hyperinflation hits us (and I think it's a real possibility), every one is gonna run to gold and there will be lines to buy it at coin stores.... that's the time to sell actually.

i would agreee w/ that. mid to long term, golds going up.

but i think right now, we're starting the rally to somewhere from s+p 1175 to 1200. if i'm right, gold will continues to pull back;  maybe into 1600s; then i think the 2nd recession that has started continues. then i'll buy some gold and short the market more than i am already. still think qe 3 comes though and keeps market armageddon from occurring.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 11, 2011, 11:27:10 AM
Hi Lee,

I kindof tracked your advice in  this thread and if you indeed did all the things you said you are either rich with bottemless assets or you have a printingpress in your cellar!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 11, 2011, 11:47:49 AM
Hi Lee,

I kindof tracked your advice in  this thread and if you indeed did all the things you said you are either rich with bottemless assets or you have a printingpress in your cellar!!

well, saying things and having the guts to put your money on the line are 2 different things.

i have been 75% exempt from the past 3 weeks, so i'm feelling really good about that; but i should have bought in heavy on some stocks i follow when we hit that infamous "634" and let them ride until 1175-1200. instead i went in light as i'm more concerned w/ not loosing the cash i have when we really hit the bottom here which should come w/in the next couple of months.  i also went in too light in '09 or i would be rich(by my measures) now. so, seems i'm a lot more talk than action.  :-\

but, over the next year; i do think we'll have at least one more QE and/or precedded by one more bottom. i'm patiently waiting for that and will go in heavy on stocks then(well, see if i'm all action next time). now is not the time in my opinion for stocks short to mid term. cant say if that'll make my rich as each new QE is subject to the law of dimishing returns, but i hope so.  :party0031:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 11, 2011, 11:54:57 AM
No worries then Lee  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 18, 2011, 03:16:17 PM
Another really bad day on the market.

Dow       10,990.58   -419.63   -3.68%
Nasdaq    2,380.43   -131.05   -5.22%
S&P 500   1,140.65   -53.24   -4.46%

Want to make some money?  Wake up early tomorrow and look for bargains.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 18, 2011, 04:45:39 PM
Another really bad day on the market.

Dow       10,990.58   -419.63   -3.68%
Nasdaq    2,380.43   -131.05   -5.22%
S&P 500   1,140.65   -53.24   -4.46%

Want to make some money?  Wake up early tomorrow and look for bargains.


The only bargains I am looking for is a repo'd house with some land.  I will not go back into the stock market for awhile, if ever.  There are too many crooks on Wall Street which have changed it from being a place to invest in the future of the country to something entirely different. 

I do wish you good luck though!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 19, 2011, 04:41:44 AM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 19, 2011, 04:53:35 AM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...

Doesn't look good for Obama either.  His disapproval rating is now 71%!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 19, 2011, 08:00:21 AM
Eduard why not good for the dollar?  It is getting stronger against the Euro.

If the dollar drops 10% against the Euro who is going to buy Euro made goods?  Yen has gotten stronger mainly because nuclear crisis has caused a shortage of Japanese made goods driving up prices.  Ford can not even use 2 paint colors on USA assembled cars they offer as Japan can not make them until next year. 

To many people have no idea why gold is strong right now and has nothing to do with $ or Euro. 

People buy gold when they have fear or want to make jewelry.  When fear goes away gold drops fast.  Good news fear is going to be around for awhile until more countries go bankrupt.  World has to many people with money and only works when you have more poor people. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 19, 2011, 08:21:09 AM
Eduard why not good for the dollar?  It is getting stronger against the Euro.

If the dollar drops 10% against the Euro who is going to buy Euro made goods?  Yen has gotten stronger mainly because nuclear crisis has caused a shortage of Japanese made goods driving up prices.  Ford can not even use 2 paint colors on USA assembled cars they offer as Japan can not make them until next year. 

To many people have no idea why gold is strong right now and has nothing to do with $ or Euro. 

People buy gold when they have fear or want to make jewelry.  When fear goes away gold drops fast.  Good news fear is going to be around for awhile until more countries go bankrupt.  World has to many people with money and only works when you have more poor people.
you seem to have asked and answered your own question. But IMO people seek safety in gold because they believe that the paper currency is and will continue to loose value.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 19, 2011, 08:38:10 AM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...

Proving that i'm not perfect on my investing.

I was going to start taking a gold position mainly as a hedge for what i have in my roth when it dropped to 1740 thinking that we're in a second recession and another 10-20% mkt drop is likely and gold will rise against a hedge, but my advisors says its very,very over bought and to wait until a pullback of around 1600.
Since they've been preety spot on on the overall market since 2007, i took thier advice.

Now, look at it.  :'(

I don't think its going back to 1600 for years. 1740 was the pullback and i missed it, darn.

Also, i'm reading endgame now. for those of you that think the US will never come back, its very good on how the US will come back and what to expect financially while it does.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 19, 2011, 08:48:20 AM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...

Proving that i'm not perfect on my investing.

I was going to start taking a gold position mainly as a hedge for what i have in my roth when it dropped to 1740 thinking that we're in a second recession and another 10-20% mkt drop is likely and gold will rise against a hedge, but my advisors says its very,very over bought and to wait until a pullback of around 1600.
Since they've been preety spot on on the overall market since 2007, i took thier advice.

Now, look at it.  :'(

I don't think its going back to 1600 for years. 1740 was the pullback and i missed it, darn.
Lee, don't feel bad. I wouldn't know anything about precious metals if I didn't have a good friend who is an investor and makes a living at it. He turned me onto gold back in 2006 and he's been right on everything so far, not just gold. He also thinks that Ron Paul is the only man who can save our country at this point, that we will go through a period of depression no matter who is in the office at this point. But if the right government is elected (with Ron Paul heading it) we may still recover in a decade or two. Funny thing, he admitted to me that he voted for Obama... because he knew that Gold would go up during Obama's reign and he has a lot of it.    :-X
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 19, 2011, 09:11:29 AM

yes, its not the first or last thing i missed. i dont like to give political views here because it drives some people nuts and RUA is a great thing, i wouldn't want to turn anyone off of it; but i think no matter who is president next; the US is just going to kick the can down the road.

at some piont in the next 10 years, the bond mkt is going to say enough, cause a major crash and then the US and world will start deleverging. I think that'll happen within 10 years and by 2020; we'll be out of this.

Of course, then probably 20 years from now, it'll probably start all over again.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 19, 2011, 11:57:19 AM
JP Morgan and Citigroup have cut growth forecasts for the American economy. Gross domestic product will grow 1 percent in the fourth quarter rather than the 2.5 percent previously forecast and 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012 instead of 1.5 percent, JPMorgan said in a note e-mailed to clients today. Citigroup cut its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent and lowered its projection for next year to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent, according to a note to clients dated yesterday.

A 1% growth in GDP instead of 2.5% is a big drop.  A new recession is a definite possibility if these numbers are correct.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-19/u-s-growth-forecasts-lowered-at-citigroup-jpmorgan-amid-global-slowdown.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 19, 2011, 12:36:37 PM
@Eduard

Wow, I see the coolaid drinkers are finally waking up (albeit with a big hangover).

@Lee
Quote
Also, i'm reading endgame now.

Thats a book on economics? (SARCASM MODE OFF)

@Lee
Quote
for those of you that think the US will never come back, its very good on how the US will come back and what to expect financially while it does.

Its clearly obvious why  America is in the situation it is , no wonder your politicians weren't seriously dealing with problems,..,if the citizenry (Lee et al) were sticking their heads in the sand,...with a dosis of wishfull thinking and delerium-americanium-cannot-failum drug....yeah...you cant blame anyone but yourself,....and..even then you completely refuse to learn a lesson here.... I am starting to believe that for most people things can get bad as you can ever imagine and that "point of learning" will never be reached.

Slaves seeking slavery...enjoy oblivion....its the Chinese's turn now to run things for a while




Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 19, 2011, 02:19:40 PM
It's not getting any better in the stock market.

Dow      10,817.65   -172.93   -1.57%
Nasdaq   2,341.84   -38.59   -1.62%
S&P 500  1,123.53   -17.12   -1.50%

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 19, 2011, 02:20:28 PM
JP Morgan and Citigroup have cut growth forecasts for the American economy. Gross domestic product will grow 1 percent in the fourth quarter rather than the 2.5 percent previously forecast and 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012 instead of 1.5 percent, JPMorgan said in a note e-mailed to clients today. Citigroup cut its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent and lowered its projection for next year to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent, according to a note to clients dated yesterday.

A 1% growth in GDP instead of 2.5% is a big drop.  A new recession is a definite possibility if these numbers are correct.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-19/u-s-growth-forecasts-lowered-at-citigroup-jpmorgan-amid-global-slowdown.html
But according to our great communist leader recession ain't gonna happen again? Shouldn't we believe him?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on August 19, 2011, 10:19:44 PM
Ed,  I like your humor.  Glad to see not such a serious side  :)
I wonder if there will be anything left in my 401K when I get back from Ukraine next month :snivel:
I am glad the ticket is pre-paid, I might otherwise have to work in the fields to get home :)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 19, 2011, 10:23:13 PM
JP Morgan and Citigroup have cut growth forecasts for the American economy. Gross domestic product will grow 1 percent in the fourth quarter rather than the 2.5 percent previously forecast and 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012 instead of 1.5 percent, JPMorgan said in a note e-mailed to clients today. Citigroup cut its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent and lowered its projection for next year to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent, according to a note to clients dated yesterday.

A 1% growth in GDP instead of 2.5% is a big drop.  A new recession is a definite possibility if these numbers are correct.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-19/u-s-growth-forecasts-lowered-at-citigroup-jpmorgan-amid-global-slowdown.html
But according to our great communist leader recession ain't gonna happen again? Shouldn't we believe him?

It's too late Eduard, the writing is on the wall and the recession is already here.  It's going to be a bloodbath in some parts of the world that rely on tourism...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 19, 2011, 10:45:45 PM
JP Morgan and Citigroup have cut growth forecasts for the American economy. Gross domestic product will grow 1 percent in the fourth quarter rather than the 2.5 percent previously forecast and 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012 instead of 1.5 percent, JPMorgan said in a note e-mailed to clients today. Citigroup cut its 2011 growth forecast to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent and lowered its projection for next year to 2.1 percent from 2.7 percent, according to a note to clients dated yesterday.

A 1% growth in GDP instead of 2.5% is a big drop.  A new recession is a definite possibility if these numbers are correct.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-19/u-s-growth-forecasts-lowered-at-citigroup-jpmorgan-amid-global-slowdown.html
But according to our great communist leader recession ain't gonna happen again? Shouldn't we believe him?

It's too late Eduard, the writing is on the wall and the recession is already here.  It's going to be a bloodbath in some parts of the world that rely on tourism...

You might be right the recession could already be here.  Six months from now the US government could say that revised figures from August,2011 show that the USA had already been in recession for a month or two.   :hidechair: :hidechair:  Let's stockpile our guns and gold.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 20, 2011, 01:56:30 PM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...

Proving that i'm not perfect on my investing.

I was going to start taking a gold position mainly as a hedge for what i have in my roth when it dropped to 1740 thinking that we're in a second recession and another 10-20% mkt drop is likely and gold will rise against a hedge, but my advisors says its very,very over bought and to wait until a pullback of around 1600.
Since they've been preety spot on on the overall market since 2007, i took thier advice.

Now, look at it.  :'(

I don't think its going back to 1600 for years. 1740 was the pullback and i missed it, darn.
Lee, don't feel bad. I wouldn't know anything about precious metals if I didn't have a good friend who is an investor and makes a living at it. He turned me onto gold back in 2006 and he's been right on everything so far, not just gold. He also thinks that Ron Paul is the only man who can save our country at this point, that we will go through a period of depression no matter who is in the office at this point. But if the right government is elected (with Ron Paul heading it) we may still recover in a decade or two. Funny thing, he admitted to me that he voted for Obama... because he knew that Gold would go up during Obama's reign and he has a lot of it.    :-X

What about a President Perry and Ron Paul as Treasury Secretary or the last Fed Chairman as he and Perry dismantel the cult of secrecy at the Fed and institute a regime of Audits and full transparency of who owns the Fed and who makes the decisions with true oversight by the peoples representatives rather that the lying and obfuscation based upon the legacy of Greenspan Speak gibberish to baffle the congress and people with BS while the Fed serves its international Banksters owners. 

There is hope yet and lifting the crushing weight of taxation and socially inspired politically correct regulations on USA businesses would reingite the spirit of entrepreneuralism in the USA lest we crumble like the Roman, British and French empires did.  Perhaps they might dismantle and abolish the Fed and cyberize the Fed and distribute the control back to the peoples representatives and the States - devaluing the currency from $1 value in 1914 to less than 2 cents today via deficit spending and hyperinflationary policies only robs the people and businesses of their capital savings and means of production encouraging a debt driven society and punishing the savers who create the capital means of production.  Perry is right the Bernanke and the banksters should all be tried for high crimes and felonious TREASON!

Time for some Perry-Paul T.E.A. friendly Austrian school policies in actual governance as the Obamunists Keynesians took a bad situation and made it much much worse.  Off course the anti american Wall Street internationalist banksters will fight this tooth and nail but their unending greed and avarice is likely to be their downfall - one can hope and VOTE!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 20, 2011, 03:26:55 PM
FREE Peter Schiff's special report on avoinding Gold Scams:

http://goldripoffs.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 20, 2011, 04:18:13 PM
Gold is at $1866.30

This doesn't look good for the dollar...

Proving that i'm not perfect on my investing.

I was going to start taking a gold position mainly as a hedge for what i have in my roth when it dropped to 1740 thinking that we're in a second recession and another 10-20% mkt drop is likely and gold will rise against a hedge, but my advisors says its very,very over bought and to wait until a pullback of around 1600.
Since they've been preety spot on on the overall market since 2007, i took thier advice.

Now, look at it.  :'(

I don't think its going back to 1600 for years. 1740 was the pullback and i missed it, darn.
Lee, don't feel bad. I wouldn't know anything about precious metals if I didn't have a good friend who is an investor and makes a living at it. He turned me onto gold back in 2006 and he's been right on everything so far, not just gold. He also thinks that Ron Paul is the only man who can save our country at this point, that we will go through a period of depression no matter who is in the office at this point. But if the right government is elected (with Ron Paul heading it) we may still recover in a decade or two. Funny thing, he admitted to me that he voted for Obama... because he knew that Gold would go up during Obama's reign and he has a lot of it.    :-X

What about a President Perry and Ron Paul as Treasury Secretary or the last Fed Chairman as he and Perry dismantel the cult of secrecy at the Fed and institute a regime of Audits and full transparency of who owns the Fed and who makes the decisions with true oversight by the peoples representatives rather that the lying and obfuscation based upon the legacy of Greenspan Speak gibberish to baffle the congress and people with BS while the Fed serves its international Banksters owners. 

There is hope yet and lifting the crushing weight of taxation and socially inspired politically correct regulations on USA businesses would reingite the spirit of entrepreneuralism in the USA lest we crumble like the Roman, British and French empires did.  Perhaps they might dismantle and abolish the Fed and cyberize the Fed and distribute the control back to the peoples representatives and the States - devaluing the currency from $1 value in 1914 to less than 2 cents today via deficit spending and hyperinflationary policies only robs the people and businesses of their capital savings and means of production encouraging a debt driven society and punishing the savers who create the capital means of production.  Perry is right the Bernanke and the banksters should all be tried for high crimes and felonious TREASON!

Time for some Perry-Paul T.E.A. friendly Austrian school policies in actual governance as the Obamunists Keynesians took a bad situation and made it much much worse.  Off course the anti american Wall Street internationalist banksters will fight this tooth and nail but their unending greed and avarice is likely to be their downfall - one can hope and VOTE!
very well said, Mike!  tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on August 21, 2011, 12:43:45 PM
@Eduard

Wow, I see the coolaid drinkers are finally waking up (albeit with a big hangover).

@Lee
Quote
Also, i'm reading endgame now.

Thats a book on economics? (SARCASM MODE OFF)

@Lee
Quote
for those of you that think the US will never come back, its very good on how the US will come back and what to expect financially while it does.

Its clearly obvious why  America is in the situation it is , no wonder your politicians weren't seriously dealing with problems,..,if the citizenry (Lee et al) were sticking their heads in the sand,...with a dosis of wishfull thinking and delerium-americanium-cannot-failum drug....yeah...you cant blame anyone but yourself,....and..even then you completely refuse to learn a lesson here.... I am starting to believe that for most people things can get bad as you can ever imagine and that "point of learning" will never be reached.

Slaves seeking slavery...enjoy oblivion....its the Chinese's turn now to run things for a while

Seriously JC ? You think i'm still missing it.

Well, then we're going to have to disagree here and you will never think i'm seeing this correctly, but i am.

Yes, things are going to get worse for the US and for europe and a depression is possible; but the US IS NOT going down for the count and china IS NOT taking over.

china is manipulating its own currency , has an aging population that is going to make the US baby boomer costs look like nothing and they are not replacing them at any rate even near the US and the china has 1 aircraft carrier(or 2 if you condsider the aircraft carrier they bough from russia and made into a cruise ship). actually, china is going to drag austrailia into it(as they have avoided it for the most part) as china contracts. i know its a popular belief that china is going to pass the US econimicaally, but it just isnt going to happen and i'm takling any and all bets on it.

and every other country has the same problems the US has(england,Austrailiajapan,etc) of a real estate  and/or financial bubble and bloated govt.

you need to expect things will continue as they are, as elected people everywhere will kick the can down the street; until the bond mkts say enough. then, it will be real bad for 2-3 years in the US(longer elsewhere and we haven't hit this period yet) and then the US will start to pull out. we are in a delevegring cycle,  they typically are around 10 years. if you believe it started in 2008, in 2018; the US should be out.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on August 21, 2011, 01:02:12 PM
Lee,
What's your advice for someone with a much shrinking 401K and it's too late to buy gold now?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 21, 2011, 02:12:24 PM
How bad are economic conditions getting in Switzerland, the currency safe haven for people, companies and countries using the euro?  The Swiss government, companies and citizens are overwhelmed by the rising prices, prices that are rising on a weekly basis. 

Switzerland's currency is 39 percent overvalued against the euro, based on purchasing power parity as calculated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's "a headache," according to ABB Ltd., the world's largest maker of power-transmission gear, which responded by buying more parts from euro-region suppliers to feed its Swiss factories. Workers at Lonza Group AG, a Basel-based chemicals maker, are working longer hours without extra pay, while VonRoll Infratec AG, a maker of piping systems, is paying some salaries in euros.

Billionaire entrepreneur Christoph Blocher, one of the politicians who called on SNB President Philipp Hildebrand to resign after the bank lost $21 billion last year in a vain attempt to restrain the currency, now supports a franc target.

"The franc is catastrophically overvalued," said Blocher, a former justice minister for the People's Party, Switzerland's largest. "It's almost like economic warfare -- to wage a war, you must use all measures at your disposal, and you must win."

JC are resident Swiss expert doesn't see a problem with the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc but then his working experience in fiance is from running the till at McDonald's in Zurich so it's probably best to seek financial advice from someone else.   :laugh:


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/08/16/bloomberg1376-LPZI091A74E901-2NEIBUQ5N798QVEPQGCKJEAUR2.DTL&ao=all 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 21, 2011, 03:25:44 PM
Lee,
What's your advice for someone with a much shrinking 401K and it's too late to buy gold now?

I like to listen to Peter Schiff's video blog for the pure Austrian School perspective and being one of Ron Paul's economic advisors and an ethical business man as well gives him credibility in my eyes.  (See his avoid gold scams report link I posted above).

Also there is the Sovereign Society for globalizing your investments, Everbank with the tools to diversify out of the US Dollar only mindset and Motley Fool for taking the long term perspective and finding good USA based and International companies with good diversified global brands and businesses that will always do well globally to weather the boom and bust storm at home in the USA:

For $49 you can buy an annual subscription to the basic Sovereign Society Newsletter  http://www.sovereignsociety.com/ with some of the best internationally focused advisors going - They promote the FDIC insured EVERBANK standalone or baskets of International Currency CDs - current pre-hyperinflationary collapse of the dollar advice best to keep about 10% of your assets in Gold and Silver - to buy several large bags of pre-1964 "junk" heavily circulated silver coins (I know a guy who bought 10 lbs of "junk silver" because a mercury dime silver content is worth $2.50 and can still buy a loaf of bread and as legal minted US coins will not be confiscated. Some gold just for backup) and 90% in a diversified basket of commodity country currencies that actually pay an interest rate in the 2.0% to 4.8% range:

See the everbank web site and currency CD baskets:
https://www.everbank.com/personal/foreign-currencies.aspx

Commodity Currencies:
Australian Dollar
New Zealand Dollar
Canadian Dollar
Norwegian Kroner (Norway just discovered another new huge oil field in the north sea)
Brazilian Real

Safety Currencies:
Singapore
Switzerland

Idea being these currencies pay a real interest rate of return and are protected from a collapsing dollar.  https://www.everbank.com/personal/rates.aspx?tab=currencies not too bad for Income and US Dollar collapse diversification.

Also worth subscribing to "motley fool" and keeping a portion in highly globally diversified brands stocks that pay reliable dividends as these global brands are kept by all major institutional "widows and orphans" funds managers as being global brands they are in demand around the world and likely to weather out any type of storm that may brew up in the USA - their stocks could take a hit in a massive global crisis but also would be the first to bounce back in any recovery.  That is my plan anyway.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 22, 2011, 11:00:30 AM
Gold is at $1887 right now but earlier was at $1896 (days high for today). Guess people are prepairing for Obama's next ingenious plan to be revealed in September, realizing too well where that plan is going to take our economy and the US dollar.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 22, 2011, 11:42:33 AM
@WC
Quote
JC are resident Swiss expert doesn't see a problem with the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc but then his working experience in fiance is from running the till at McDonald's in Zurich so it's probably best to seek financial advice from someone else.

Our currency is on the rise because the Swiss dont spend money we dont have or fuuuuck over the money saved by our retirees,..I guess having some fiscal constraint is bad policy comming for our resident Keynesian (WC, flush toilet again please) .

Yeah the Swiss life-raft is being overrun by people leaving the sinking Titanic (USA-dollar, EU-Euro debacle).

Now the Americans can always choose to sink their wealth in the Canadian Dollar,...instead of the Swiss Franc.....oh wait.....!!!!

The Swiss Franc is one step away from gold, and you know what gold is doing right now,.., its not even the end of the month and it is teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 22, 2011, 11:52:36 AM
@Lee,
Quote
Seriously JC ? You think i'm still missing it.

Lol, you mean your recurring song of "recovery is just around the corner and printing money/stimuleous is a good idea"?  :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Quote
Well, then we're going to have to disagree here and you will never think i'm seeing this correctly, but i am.

Considering your Voodoo mathematics and voodoo statistics on WHY gold is high right is a funny read, but hardly reason to call it "advise".

What you think is not important, free market (=free choice) has made its choice with regard to gold. End of story!


Lee,
What's your advice for someone with a much shrinking 401K and it's too late to buy gold now?

Your asking Lee-dont-buy-gold-because-(let-me-sound-intelligent-about-math)-gold-is-5-means-above-its-true-price-its-a-bubble-waiting-for-correction?

Sheople (pun) who stand in front of the locomative get crushed,..,its that simple...401K...you never had it pal, was all smoke and mirrors to begin with!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 22, 2011, 11:55:37 AM
Gold is at $1887 right now but earlier was at $1896 (days high for today). Guess people are prepairing for Obama's next ingenious plan to be revealed in September, realizing too well where that plan is going to take our economy and the US dollar.

Simple, Gold will come crashing down if:

1) Ron Paul gets elected (LOL never going to happen)
2) the Fed raises interest rates like they did under Reagan
3) They exterminate all the lefto-pinko-babyboomers who voted for entitlements they never earned or wasted through governments buying their union votes
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 22, 2011, 05:03:40 PM
(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usGOLDn.png)

Calmissle, I'd try Lear the official gold site of Limbaugh. They have some of the lowest rates and prices. They take checks and keep you posted at every step of the way, check received, check cleared, order shipped, tracking number and so on.


Quote
Gold is a rocket ship at the moment and there are many factors that make us expect further gains.

Firstly, the global recovery has juddered to a halt and, with the obvious uncertainty surrounding the situation, people have been looking to buy tangible assets.

Secondly, we are likely to see inflation remain high and with the prospects of further quantitative easing in the UK and US this will translate to an increased erosion of the value of money; something that gold investors tend to crow about

Alright enough crowing for now

What the mainstream gold world and Planet Wall Street do not understand is that one of the reasons gold is acting like it has been is because of a Commercial Signal Failure. There were a number of players who have played the gold trading game allied with The Gold Cartel. They would short and short and then cover those shorts when The Gold Cartel attacked the price and forced spec longs to sell. This is how they made money over and over again by being short in a bull market.

Well, over the past couple of weeks the game totally changed as The Gold Cartel began to lose control of their management of the gold price, as evidenced by the breaking of the 2% Rule. The total financial chaos in Europe and the US sent them into a panic, and instead of shorting more as the gold price rose (which they have done for so long), they became buyers (taking huge losses on their short positions), leaving The Gold Cartel to hold the fort. In other words, these commercial shorts abandoned the fort. This is what the GATA camp foretold long ago.

The other factors which have to have them spooked are:

*The strong potential for a bank holiday, which could be announced out of the blue.

*Central banks asking for their lent gold back. You won’t hear this outside of the GATA camp, but the notion of lent gold to support the gold price suppression scheme has been one of our basic themes of understanding the gold market. If central banks, like Venezuela, ask for their gold back, it could cause a PANIC, and has to have sheeple central bankers who have lent gold out, to be in a twit. These are risk adverse types whose worst nightmare is to be embarrassed and exposed to their public as having been duped into folly. If this is so, as I suspect, the price of gold is likely to advance much faster than even we thought, as nervous central bankers start making demands of those who have their gold. Yeah baby!

Investors are realizing around the world, there is no way out of the fiscal mess our politicians have put us in. It is a NIGHTMARE for the little guy and girl. It is SO BAD, investors don’t have to be convinced too much that gold can take out $3,000, even $5,000. Silver will be the big surprise. WATCH!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 22, 2011, 05:48:55 PM
great article! Thanks for posting it, Maxx  tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 22, 2011, 06:55:21 PM
great article! Thanks for posting it, Maxx  tiphat

Thanks Eduard and here is another one that really puts it together.

Quote
Not easy for bullion banks to put golden Humpty Dumpty back together again
August 20 (USAGOLD) —


 I can’t help but think that the recent news about Venezuela has had something do with gold’s rise late this past week. And it may have had something to do with the strong run-up over the past few weeks.

When Venezuela first made its intentions for gold repatriation public, the press reports indentified the Bank of England as the depository for 211 tonnes of its gold. Later, it came out that 99 tonnes were on deposit at BoE and the rest sprinkled among JP Morgan Chase, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and Bank of Nova Scotia — gold bullion banks all.

It was the addition of the bullion banks in press reports that sent off alarm bells in the gold market. We were no longer talking simply about gold under a depository arrangement at the BoE (a rather benign proposition), but metal that had been committed to various lending operations. The inclusion put a whole new light on the Venezuela matter in that it suggests a short position in the physical metal that would need to be filled. Financial Times called the Venezuela withdrawal “one of the largest transfers of physical gold in recent history.” When the news sunk in, gold promptly rallied — trading at $1850 as this is written and trading as high as $1875 overnight Thursday/Friday. Too, and overlooked, Venezuela’s repatriation effort might have been one of the chief driving factors for gold’s strong rally over the past several weeks. The bullion bank scramble, in other words, may have started weeks ago long before Venezuela went public with its intentions.

In plain terms, it is unlikely that Venezuela’s gold is sitting prettily in the above named bullion banks just waiting to be loaded on a cargo plane and sent to Caracas. It was probably loaned out long ago, and then perhaps, redeposited at some other bullion bank and loaned out again, etc. on down the line until it was fractionalized, atomized, and otherwise depleted from its unified whole. In short, it will not be easy for the bullion banks to reassemble this golden Humpty Dumpty.

In turn, failure to materialize the physical metal could prompt similar demands from other gold-depositing nation states and private funds and individuals alike. Moneyed interests globally, as reported extensively in the mainstream press, are on a hair trigger, and ready to move defensively at a moment’s notice. At the whiff of trouble, the equivalent of a bank run could develop in the bullion banking sector. (It is interesting to note that a similar circumstance 40 years ago, almost to the day, forced the United States to close the gold window.)

At the very least, some depositors might be prompted to move their gold into allocated accounts thus removing it from the lending pool. In other words, a great deal more incipient demand may be bubbling beneath surface of the gold market than we presently know.
Michael J. Kosares

FYI I case you are wondering where most this gold goes. Leasing gold is popular with the jewelry and dental industries which I serve (I'm a gold refiner). What happens is the jewelry company leases a certain amount of gold. Which is cast into jewelry and sold to the retail jeweler. The bank that leased the gold charges interest and fees to the jewelry manufacturing company. The jewelry manufacture gets inspections from time to time as to their inventory and what they have outstanding with their clients by representatives of the bank. The jewelry company gets it's big paydays to pay for all of this mostly after the Christmas and Mother's Day holidays. It would not be easy to recall all the gold suddenly. Perhaps this is why Libya with it's 144 tons of gold is such an interest? 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 22, 2011, 07:52:04 PM
things that make you go..."hmmm"
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on August 22, 2011, 08:37:26 PM
Maxx,
Thanks for the post.  It's a little over my head as I have never purchased gold or really considered myself very astute in the investment world.

I did Google Lear and found a huge number of complaints.  If I were to invest in gold I think I would be afraid of doing it with this company.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 22, 2011, 11:08:33 PM
Last time I checked earlier today Gold was $1920 an ounce.  I suspect it will easily be over 2K an ounce within 3 to 5 days.  If those Pol's in Congress do not get a real budget done by around Thanksgiving; we are in for a very very bumpy ride.  Us Yanks might be apologizing for our criticisms of the riots in London after the fury of a hungry angry mob of 320 Million people gets unleashed!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 23, 2011, 06:57:12 AM
Last time I checked earlier today Gold was $1920 an ounce.  I suspect it will easily be over 2K an ounce within 3 to 5 days.  If those Pol's in Congress do not get a real budget done by around Thanksgiving; we are in for a very very bumpy ride.  Us Yanks might be apologizing for our criticisms of the riots in London after the fury of a hungry angry mob of 320 Million people gets unleashed!!
I don't know about 320 million, but there will be riots in the "urban" areas once the entitlements get cut off for the lack of funds. It's not going to be pretty and some American cities will prolly wind up looking worse than Detroit
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 23, 2011, 08:00:29 AM
Gold will keep going up if people want to buy it.  Like a baseball card the value is based on what people will pay for it.

Whale oil used to be valuable as well. 

Better to day trade gold than hold on to it at current price.






Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 23, 2011, 09:50:13 AM
Gold will keep going up if people want to buy it.  Like a baseball card the value is based on what people will pay for it.

Whale oil used to be valuable as well. 

Better to day trade gold than hold on to it at current price.

There was a time that tulip bulbs were also a valuable commodity. But when I sold my gold  :(  at 1,250 I though the ride was over.

Oops!

Looking forward my guess based on the dynamics of the world today, gold will continue to rise. If I knew how high and for how long I would place a few orders.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 23, 2011, 11:36:43 AM
AvHB
Quote
There was a time that tulip bulbs were also a valuable commodity.

As soon as we can plant gold nuggets (tulip bulbs) and harvest gold KG bars, you will see the same effect as the "tulip bubble" happening to gold.

Oh wait,... you cant actually grow gold, can you? like one can easily grow tulips (=printing money)

There are some who do have a "money tree" though....its called a printing press!

Still not Getting it? AvHB? Maybe you should check your old post in this thread.

Chuss..


Edit: yeah yeah yeah , you can actually mine gold, but not easily and with great expense, so MINING GOLD its not the same as PRINTING money
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 23, 2011, 11:42:10 AM
GOld was about 1600 (approx) on 1 AUG THE BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH been rising 

Its now peaked 1920, next week, easily breaking 2000 without a fuuucking sweat!!!

and when that barrier breaks,,,, its not going to be funny.

Obama is likely going to be a one termer..., as in the last election was America's LAST election! and this term is just one big fat long one augmented with martial law!...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 24, 2011, 12:25:07 AM
Maxx,
Thanks for the post.  It's a little over my head as I have never purchased gold or really considered myself very astute in the investment world.

I did Google Lear and found a huge number of complaints.  If I were to invest in gold I think I would be afraid of doing it with this company.

A good friend of mine told me that he has had the best success with them. He said they take about two weeks from order placed to delivery which is long compared to most but had the best rates. He has bought about 1,500 ounces from several companies and said they were the best overall. All gold/silver businesses get complaints. One could place a small order with them and see how they do before placing larger orders. I do not buy from these companies as I do not need to what with my business accepting gold and silver scrap. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 01:17:47 AM
Peter Shiff, (an outspoken wall street investor who has been advocating the goldstandard and predicted the sub-prime crash since 2002)  has a company in NY that sells gold and ships them to you

Depending on volume i would also consider the various gold storages in Zurich and London,..,but they sell per kg.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on August 24, 2011, 05:25:23 AM
I have to admit I am not even close to being knowledgeable on the topic.  I remember a few years ago I called my 401K retirement investment firm and discussed moving everything to gold for protection.  I was talked out of it by all the bullshit that the wall street crowd parrot down the line to all the puppets that merely repeat what they hear.

My retirement group with all their experts did not know shit what was about to happen.  My intuition was more accurate.  I once read that if you do the opposite of what the investment advisers tell you, you are much more likely to success than to follow their advice.

I saw a record of the 'Motley Fool' projected on a chart that showed what would happen if you followed his advice.  You would be BROKE within a few years.  My mother followed his advice and is now asking us kids for financial assistance.

So much for all the sales pitches and bullshit!  Gold DOES have intrinsic value and in spite of Andrews great oratory wisdom to the contrary, it is one thing you can invest in (bullion) that does in fact protect you against paper currencies and all the corruption and manipulation behind them.  If the market increases to the point that I decide to take the risk, I will dump all stocks and bonds and do what I wanted to do several years ago.  Convert the value into something of intrinsic value that the politicians can't screw with.  As long as Obumma does not forbit the ownership of Gold I should be much safer.

The real test for me is what is the Dollar worth vs. Gold or other rare commodities.  That tells the whole story.  It does not take rocket science to discover that the most important thing in a 401K is to watch what it is worth in terms of something tangible.  Compare the dollar from year to year and see what it buys in terms of things that you normally purchase.... groceries, gasoline, electric and gas, etc.  It is not much more complicated than that to track what your hard earned paper money is worth!

With all due respect to all you geniuses and analysts, the old stories from all the 'nuts' 30 and 40 years ago seems to ring true.  If I had put what little wealth I had into something of intrinsic value, I would be a multimillionaire today.  You can play all the number games and analytical games and forecasting you want.  I am no longer a believer.  I am convinced that once we went off the gold standard there is nothing but talking heads, puppets to the 'investment wisdom' and those that refuse to look into history, that think they can outsmart the real professionals that manipulate our currency and markets to take the rest of us as suckers!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 06:12:32 AM
@Missile,

I am not the one to like to say "I told you so" (as I was the one who started this thread in the HOPES of wising up some folks, but it seams that reality is a brutal and harsh teacher).

Thomas Jefferson already warned a couple of centuries ago with

" ..People who sacrifice freedom for security (=nanny state, government control, fiat money) will end up having neither.. "
 -- Thomas Jefferson!

"..Socialism doesnt work because you always run out of others peoples money..."
 -- Margeret Thatcher!

The People who decided not to listen... all got screwed over big time. Maybe people will stop listening to Keynesian Voodoo

www.mises.org

For me...next year, I will be enjoying my new yacht  ;D ;D


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 24, 2011, 06:49:50 AM
Doug,
you can buy gold coins directly from the US Mint  www.usmint.gov
You can also buy them (as well as gold bars) on Ebay or at your local reputable coin store - stores usually charge you about 5% premium over the "spot" (market price at the moment). You also might wanna look at silver coins and bars. No one knows what future will bring. The crooks (government) will try to manipulate prices, could go as far as confiscate gold from people. Also JC is right - if Ron Paul gets elected and starts turning this country around the price of gold will fall. So you have to be weighing all the risks versus rewards...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 09:28:50 AM
A couple things to consider, it is nearly impossible to acquire Gold in any substantial amounts without paperwork that gets reported to the IRS and this paper trail can become quite dangerous as anyone who thinks you may have any gold is highly motivated to steal it so you can not underestimate the danger of keeping physical gold in your home - with 43 Million USAians on food stamps and gold near $2K per ounce - necklace snatchings on the street have gone through the roof and you are insane to wear a Gold or Platinum Rolex on the street - I have had guys in the washington street shopping district in Boston come up to me and ask me what time it was and dumb me I looked and told them only to get a disgusted look when they saw I was not wearing a Rolex - so I went to a simple black watch and lately only use my cell phone and even walking around with a high end cell phone with music earbuds on have increased iphone and android robberies on the street in many cities... 

So good to keep a small portion of your reserves in gold coins that can be used in a currency crisis but better to keep bags of pre 1964 "junk" as in so worn from circulation that there is not any numismatic value ( I have shared links to Sovereign Society discount bulk or junk silver coin dealers) yet a pre 1964 Roosevelt or Mercury dime has about $2.50 of silver value so can still buy a loaf of bread.  My friend has about 10 lbs of the stuff.

If you want to keep $100K or more stashed best to keep with a reliable overseas source like Switzerland Lichtenstein etc where even though you must report to the IRS all of your offshore holdings - at least it is outside the reach of US courts and gov confiscatory policies. 

Something to consider as your Safety not to be trifled with...  why make yourself a target in the upcoming crash/crises environment.  Even Peter Schiff says about all we can do now is brace ourselves for the crash...

FREE Peter Schiff's special report on avoiding Gold Scams:

http://goldripoffs.com/

I would rate Peter Schiff's EuroPacific metals group as one of the most ethical sources around...  Sovereign society as well.  You can purchase physical as well as get referred by Sovereign Society to highly trustworthy offshore sources to keep both physical and gold/silver/platinum equity assets. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 24, 2011, 09:57:57 AM
To be a financial advisor you only have to pass a couple of easy tests. 

Hard to find a good advisor.  Many advisors makes fees / bonuses on putting money into big funds.  If they lose your money what happens - nothing.  But they still get paid.

20 years ago you could hold stocks and make money.  In todays age you have to trade the stock on ups and downs.  Holding and never trading will produce low returns.  Most people have no idea how to short stocks or sell when a stock is increasing.

Gold is no different.  Right now it is going up but it will come down.  Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.  The question is when?  Coule be 1, 10, or 50 plus years.  If you bought gold at $800 you probably safe longterm.

If the world collapses, gold will be worthless as well.  Food, guns, shelter, ammo will be more expensive than gold. 





Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 09:59:36 AM
@Cuffy!
Quote
If you want to keep $100K or more stashed best to keep with a reliable overseas source like Switzerland Lichtenstein etc where even though you must report to the IRS all of your offshore holdings - at least it is outside the reach of US courts and gov confiscatory policies. 

Indeed!

Like I advised some on the board, if you have told your family or any good friend about the fact you have bought gold, reverse this by saying you cached out

The last thing you want is people knowing you bought gold in the past and might have a stash at home....especially when things are going to get as bad as I think they will get!!!

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 10:05:54 AM
@kievstar
Quote
Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.

Lets use our brains for a moment instead of fancy stocktraders jive talk, ok?

14 trillion,,(soon to be 18 trillion) , how much money is that per point interest rate?

14.000.000.000.000 * 0.01= 140.000.000.000  thats 140 billion a year per percent interest rate

No way the US is going to RAISE interest rates, where the fuuuck are they going to get the money..

Oh wait....print even more crap I guess. and thats going to bring the price of gold down?

Unlikely!



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 24, 2011, 10:24:12 AM
Is the US Department of Justice's investigation into Wall Street's activities during the financial meltdown getting a little too close to some of the top Wall Street CEOs?  Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has hired Reid Weingarten, who previously has represented former WorldCom CEO Bernie Ebbers. 

I'm not sure Weingarten would be my first choice for a defense lawyer based on his success with Ebbers.  Ebbers is serving a 25 year sentence after being convicted on multiple counts of fraud and conspiracy. 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/amid-federal-probe-goldman-ceo-hired-top-criminal-144112324.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 24, 2011, 10:31:35 AM
@kievstar
Quote
Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.

Lets use our brains for a moment instead of fancy stocktraders jive talk, ok?

14 trillion,,(soon to be 18 trillion) , how much money is that per point interest rate?

14.000.000.000.000 * 0.01= 140.000.000.000  thats 140 billion a year per percent interest rate

No way the US is going to RAISE interest rates, where the fuuuck are they going to get the money..

Oh wait....print even more crap I guess. and thats going to bring the price of gold down?

Unlikely!
haha, tell it like it is, brother!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 24, 2011, 10:34:52 AM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: ECR844 on August 24, 2011, 10:36:44 AM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

"Ed,"

You should keep it all in bearers bonds instead. I'll even hold onto them for you.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 11:02:06 AM
@kievstar
Quote
Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.

Lets use our brains for a moment instead of fancy stocktraders jive talk, ok?

14 trillion,,(soon to be 18 trillion) , how much money is that per point interest rate?

14.000.000.000.000 * 0.01= 140.000.000.000  thats 140 billion a year per percent interest rate

No way the US is going to RAISE interest rates, where the fuuuck are they going to get the money..

Oh wait....print even more crap I guess. and thats going to bring the price of gold down?

Unlikely!

Well JC even though you can be a cantakerous old *snip* when you are right your are right er um left er ah um liberal but er ah um I mean CORRECT:

Next Stock Crash Coming
Friday, August 26th
By Evaldo Albuquerque, Editor, Exotic FX Alert (Sovereign Society Currencies Writer)

Dear Mike,

The U.S. has many traditions.

We dress up in costumes on Halloween. Buy flowers on Mothers Day. Host barbeques on Memorial Day. Set the sky on fire on 4th of July.

In the past few years, there’s something else that has become another U.S. tradition: printing money. Just like Christmas, investors now expect it every year.

In 2009 Bernanke announced the first round of quantitative easing, a.k.a. QE - the new fancy name for printing money. Then last year, he announced the second round of quantitative easing during the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole.

The 2011 version of the Jackson Hole meeting is scheduled for Friday. Plenty of analysts are saying Bernanke won’t let the tradition die.

They expect Bernanke will announce QEIII at the end of this week at this meeting...

But as I will show you, it’s very possible the world will have to wait longer for QEIII. That’s important because it will have tremendous impact on all markets in the short-term.

Stocks could even crash this August 26th! Let me explain....

The Latest Market Shock
Recent economic data has been just ugly. It’s very likely we’re heading to another recession. In fact, we may be in one already.

The most recent shock came in the Philly Fed Economic Index. This index measures manufacturing activity in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. A negative number indicates contraction.

This index isn’t just negative. It plunged from 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August.

As you can see in the chart below, the Philly Index (in red) tends to move with the ISM national manufacturing index (in blue).

The Philly index suggests the ISM index will drop below 50, which shows contraction in manufacturing activity. We will get the official data on September first.

Manufacturing Activity Suggests a Recession is Coming

[attachimg=1]

With the U.S. economy in this anemic state, many market participants are expecting Bernanke to pull another magic trick out of his hat. The market is thirsty for another round of quantitative easing.

Goldman Sachs, for example, said recently that it’s operating under the assumption the Fed will announce QEIII this week. But I wouldn’t make that assumption.

Sorry Goldman, But No QE III for Now
Since last year, when the Fed announced QEII, a lot has changed. It’s much harder for the Fed to justify another round of quantitative easing now than it was last year.

Last year, inflation was falling, increasing the risk deflation would take over. Back then, Core CPI, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, went from 1.7% in January to 0.9% in June.

This year, inflation has been going up. Core inflation has risen from 1.0% in January to 1.8% in July. The Fed’s informal target range for longer-term core inflation is 1.7 to 2%.

So the Fed can no longer argue inflation is too low.
 
I don’t know how Bernanke can justify another round of QE on August 26th, during the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting.

We all know that QEII was a massive failure. It lifted asset prices, such as stocks and commodities, but didn’t do anything for the economy. In fact, higher prices of oil and food made consumers’ lives a lot harder, and forced them to cut back.

Besides that, Bernanke is facing increasing political pressure. Some have started to question the Fed’s independence, suggesting it’s propping up the stock market for political reasons.

Even Fed members have started to oppose Bernanke’s views. Many have said they will vote against another round of money-printing.

For that reason, as much as Bernanke loves printing money, I don’t see Bernanke announcing another round of QE this week.

Mark This Date on Your Calendar
This Friday will be a key day for financial assets. We will not only have the famous Jackson Hole meeting, but we will also get the revised GDP growth for the second quarter.

The market expects a revision from 1.3% to 1.1%. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a much bigger revision. If the number is much lower than expected, fears of another recession will definitely escalate.

That will increase even more expectations of another round of QEIII. If Bernanke disappoints the market, watch out below. Commodities and stocks will plunge.

In the forex market I will be playing that by shorting emerging market currencies, which tend to suffer when fears of a recession increase.

If you want to copy this strategy, look to buy the dollar and short exotic currencies like the Hungarian forint, Mexican peso or South African rand.

So mark that date on your calendar. Friday will set the stage for the next major move - and even a possible crash - in the markets.

Best Regards,


Evaldo Albuquerque
Editor, Exotic FX Alert
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 24, 2011, 11:16:11 AM
I'm about to head off and I wanted to check this topic on account of the huge gold price drop today

Quote
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- High gold prices need to watch their backs because margin hikes could be right around the corner.


With gold prices seeing $20-$50 swings daily, the CME could be tempted to increase the amount of money it takes to buy an 100 ounce gold futures contract -- a technique often employed to stem volatility.

Silver was the latest victim of margin hikes and is still recovering. The CME raised margins five times between April 26th and May 9th a massive 68% which eventually resulted in silver losing almost 30% of its value in less than 3 weeks. If the same fate were to befall gold, prices could tank to $1,400 an ounce.

The CME has raised margin requirements for gold twice this year, once in January and once in early August, by 11% and 22% respectively. The moves did little to stem gold's rally. A week after the margin hikes in January gold was down just 2% and a week after the August hike gold was up 1.5%.

(http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k131/Maxx_1953/usGOLDn-1.png)

Jim Rogers the self made billionaire and former partner of George Soros was asked what would happen if gold was to drop. He said "I hope it does then I will buy more". These market drops are like fires that make a way for new growth. It helps firm up the floor as it scares out the speculators. Much of this is manipulation to keep gold from exploding but over all keeping gold down is like pushing a beach ball below the water... it keeps popping up. The fundamentals for a high price are all there and they are not going away soon. The fiat printing press is all they got and those that see long term see it and know it.

There is a lot of misinformation on this board about gold. As example Andrews "fish hooks will be more valuable than gold when the SHTF" (Kevstar did the same) then using this as reason not to buy gold. The answer to that one was fish hooks will only have temporary value over gold.

Here is something I wrote to an American woman living in Ecuador and Liliya I refer to is a RW living in Ecuador right now.

Quote
"If you want to hedge against the quickly diminishing dollar, take advice from George Soros.  Get rid of all your precious metal, buy farmland, and learn
how to create great gardens.  Organically grown food and clean water are the next precious commodities, and you don't need hallmarking there to know whether or not you've got the real thing."

I partially agree with this. I agree having farmland and creating a productive farm from it is a very good idea. Ecuador is a GREAT place for this. But why is it a good idea to sell all of your precious metals? Why should it be a 'either or' proposition? Just a few years back Soros badmouthed gold (when it was selling for half of what it today) and at the same time bought a large amount of gold a few weeks later. Could he be doing the same thing now? Soros is not to be trusted. If the gold "bubble" bursts it will only go down a few hundreds of dollars of an ounce, maybe several hundreds until many individuals, institutions and central banks scoop in and buy up what is being sold by the "weak hands". Thus driving the price back up again. I hear arguments against gold all the time. The one usual tactic is to assume gold will be such and such at a given time. Then use this as a reason not to buy it. This reasoning of assuming a certain timeline in all fairness is being used by gold sellers as a reason for buying gold (from them). As example it is said that when the economy crashes fish hooks and non-hybrid seeds might be worth more than their weight in gold, much more. So buy farmland and non-hybrid seeds and some boxes of fish hooks for barter instead of gold and silver. But the question that should be asked is "how long will these conditions where fish hooks and non-hybrid seeds are king last?"  Fish hooks can be manufactured and non-hybrid seeds harvested in almost unlimited numbers, gold and silver cannot. Gold and Silver will have incredible worth and value as the fiat currencies inflate in a more free economy like the US. Buy two ounces of gold now at $3,700 and in a year or so sell them and buy a $60,000 2010 SRT Dodge Challenger (or something else to your liking). Or buy some farmland with it. Of course capital gains taxes will have to be paid to the government which is irritating in that they are causing all the inflation in the first place. For Ecuador because of the present conditions of the government spoiling the free market, gold will have its use after the crash. Then it will be useful for barter in an underground economy. Times will change and the possibility of getting caught crossing the SRI, CONSEP and even the IRS will be seem like risks worth taking. Ask Liliya. She was I believe living in the FSU when their ruble inflated away. So even if gold and silver where not familiar means of exchange with the Soviet people then or with Americans or Ecuadorians now it does have the strong potential to be so. Believe me more and more people are becoming "their own central banks" and getting their stash of gold and silver. I see a time when people with a wink and a nod will exchange land, boats and vehicles for what is in a small leather bag and in addition some 'on the books' dollars to make it look legit. It is sad that conditions are coming where participating in an underground economy will become a necessity. Again ask Liliya.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 11:28:11 AM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

In a hyperinflationary situation (Right now in Zimbabwe) it is the only way to buy food.

People panning for gold flecks all across Zimbabwe to buy the basics of life...  Brit (both expats and Africa born) being attacked and thrown off their farms at an increasing rate only for the farms to be looted, burned and let go to seed - making the food shortages much worse...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 24, 2011, 11:38:00 AM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

People who are smart keep it in several places well hidden. If one place is found the sneak thief, gun wielding hold up man or the IRS will think they've got it all. Keeping it in bank safety deposit boxes need to remember 1933 where suddenly all access to safety deposit boxes were frozen. That is until a sheriff or an IRS agent was there to watch them and confiscate any gold they had. Same might apply to independent bullion holding vaults of various business that hold your gold. I have a belief that things will get rather strange when fiat currencies collapse. 

I'm off! See you later.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: clancyhound on August 24, 2011, 12:02:51 PM
Dec Gold - 1757.00     downn 103.30  as of 1401 EST    Gold is still high - the moves are also very big.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 24, 2011, 12:15:01 PM
To play the part of stubborn Yankee and dumb Cloggie.  :bow:

May I ask the following; some of us following the price of gold measure the climb in US Dollars or Euro's. Fair enough but if these currencies are nearly worthless, what is the value of gold?

In other words how much bread and beef will you be able to buy with an ounce or gram?

If you offer enough ounces to JC for his "vessel" will you be the proud owner of a floating movable condo?  :offtopic:

AvHdB

NB: Just teasing JC! Keep on  :) ing
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on August 24, 2011, 12:21:45 PM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

People who are smart keep it in several places well hidden. If one place is found the sneak thief, gun wielding hold up man or the IRS will think they've got it all. Keeping it in bank safety deposit boxes need to remember 1933 where suddenly all access to safety deposit boxes were frozen. That is until a sheriff or an IRS agent was there to watch them and confiscate any gold they had. Same might apply to independent bullion holding vaults of various business that hold your gold. I have a belief that things will get rather strange when fiat currencies collapse. 

I'm off! See you later.

Maxx if you want to hide your gold from the US government and the IRS why not buy and stash your gold in Canada?  Unlike the American government the Canadian government did not confiscate gold during the Great Depression.  It is easy for Americans to cross the border into Canada.  Canada has a banking system that is among the strongest in the world.  We have many companies that sell real gold products and a large number of companies that will provide storage for gold products.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 12:22:15 PM
The survivalist guys I know are buying rugged plastic wide mouth quart size screw on top containers and filling them up by weight with "junk" silver coins and some gold coins and literally burying them with post hole diggers below most metal detectors range (3 to 5 feet) and filling back up with sand then a foot of soil so that they can easily be dug back up in an emergency (like middle of winter in New England when ground frozen solid).

One Character I knew in Massachusetts buried cash - yes cash this way - about $80K in a plastic screw on container in a wooded area under a rock behind a KFC of off Rt 93 10 miles outside Boston.  Just in case the law or IRS decided to raid his used PC business even though he copied everyone's licenses he purchased used gear from from just like a pawn shop - half the kids coming in to his shop had tracks running up their arms so reason enough.  Not too many people in the area in those woods actually - of course he did it at night - then a red headed woman's body was discovered dumped in the said same KFC dumpster... police dogs crawling all over the woods for days and our cash and carry character did not dare go back for weeks lest they thought him the killer... when things died down and he did go back the cash stash was fine - of course he found another piece of highway forest to stash it...

So moral of the story is be very careful where you bury the stash and tell no one including your family if you want it there when you go back.  Totally true story.

P.S. If you do bury some cash be sure it is sealed with a desiccant otherwise it will rot from the moisture!  Gold and silver may tarnish a bit but will last forever even if wet and a good plastic container will last about 10,000 years in case you want to bury a note with your stash for your long lost descendants ;)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 12:26:05 PM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

People who are smart keep it in several places well hidden. If one place is found the sneak thief, gun wielding hold up man or the IRS will think they've got it all. Keeping it in bank safety deposit boxes need to remember 1933 where suddenly all access to safety deposit boxes were frozen. That is until a sheriff or an IRS agent was there to watch them and confiscate any gold they had. Same might apply to independent bullion holding vaults of various business that hold your gold. I have a belief that things will get rather strange when fiat currencies collapse. 

I'm off! See you later.

Maxx if you want to hide your gold from the US government and the IRS why not buy and stash your gold in Canada?  Unlike the American government the Canadian government did not confiscate gold during the Great Depression.  It is easy for Americans to cross the border into Canada.  Canada has a banking system that is among the strongest in the world.  We have many companies that sell real gold products and a large number of companies that will provide storage for gold products.   

Good advice excpet that it presumes our Canadian neighbors will even allow us to cross the border in time of crisis...  quite likely to be treated like uninvited folks from south of our border.  Time to think like a real survivalist if you want to survive. :money:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on August 24, 2011, 02:01:25 PM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

People who are smart keep it in several places well hidden. If one place is found the sneak thief, gun wielding hold up man or the IRS will think they've got it all. Keeping it in bank safety deposit boxes need to remember 1933 where suddenly all access to safety deposit boxes were frozen. That is until a sheriff or an IRS agent was there to watch them and confiscate any gold they had. Same might apply to independent bullion holding vaults of various business that hold your gold. I have a belief that things will get rather strange when fiat currencies collapse. 

I'm off! See you later.

Maxx if you want to hide your gold from the US government and the IRS why not buy and stash your gold in Canada? 

I'm heading out the door and will be gone for a while.

Canada has some good opportunities and a second home with gold storage is one of them.

Also I am probably the only guy anyone knows here that literally gets paid in gold and silver. A lot of what people theorize about I practice on a daily bases. My tank on my diesel truck just got filled up on three ounces of silver not more than a half an hour ago.

See you guys later.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 02:13:38 PM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

Cuffy, can you help me out here? Your the url-link-meister,...isnt there a clause in the patriot act that gives police search and seize powers to search personal rented bank vaults (those little ones) and specifily with regards to GOLD seize that asset?

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 02:19:09 PM
Quote
In other words how much bread and beef will you be able to buy with an ounce or gram?

Hard to say..., we live in a technological (=energy consuming society), baking bread is

1) farmer putting gasoline in tractor and farming his land
2) tractor factory making machinery for above
3) metal mill , melting the steel for the tractor factory
4) metal ore needs to be harvested for metal-making
5) ore needs to be shipped
6) harvested grain needs to be shipped
7) bakery needs to fire up the ovens

So in the end the price of BREAD (or any other consumable commodity) is determined largely by the price of oil

One of the reasons why the US is so tied up with 3rd world shitholes who JUST HAPPEN TO  HAVE LARGE OIL RESERVES

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 24, 2011, 02:23:34 PM
AvbH
Quote
If you offer enough ounces to JC for his "vessel" will you be the proud owner of a floating movable condo?

well, it has a boxy look but the luxery is unbeatable, so what if I bought a "volvo" amongst yachts (my previous one that is), for me the party space aspect was the sellers pitch  :king: :king:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 24, 2011, 03:14:52 PM
It is silly to keep gold and silver at home, why would any one do that?

Cuffy, can you help me out here? Your the url-link-meister,...isnt there a clause in the patriot act that gives police search and seize powers to search personal rented bank vaults (those little ones) and specifily with regards to GOLD seize that asset?

I live in New Hampshire - we have a lot of isolated wooded areas - most covered by the roadside with Poison Ivy - so therefore my post about how to hide valuables by burying in the woods.

Newsflash is that under the patriot act ALL bank vaults and safe deposit boxes and all private storage lockers can be searched and contents seized at any time now a days - Our no sales or income tax free paradise of New Hampshire just prosecuted a pizza shop owner on failure to pay $1,500.00 on the rooms and meals taxes (I have little sympathy as most of these pizza shop owners are boat jobs that I am amazed were allowed into the country in the first place but that is another issue completely!)  And the Feds tried to pass a law last year where any cash transaction over $600.00 cash would require the merchant to issue you a 1099 - people think that any cash transactions below $10K do not have to be reported but banks are required to report any series of cash deposits now - so people looking to stock up in a meaningful way encouraged to buy gold and silver now before the $600 1099 reporting requirement goes into place - small business screamed so loud about the additional paperwork burden that the bigbrotherists and Obamunists in our government backed down for the moment but are looking to find every taxable penny possible to raise as much money as possible - the federal, state and local governments have become insatiable as evidenced by the pizza tax example in their appetite for taxes and therefore I think Peter Schiff is correct - nothing we can do now but brace ourselves for a crash and hope its more like the Titanic hitting an iceberg where some can still get off without drowning - otherwise it will be like a jet crashing and burning with few if any survivors!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 25, 2011, 12:57:38 AM
@Cuff
Quote
I have little sympathy as most of these pizza shop owners are boat jobs that I am amazed were allowed into the country in the first place

Are these hardworking business owners getting money out of your pocket?

I didnt see a link,,.., but anyway thanks for the tax codes,...gives enough info to google!

 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 25, 2011, 12:58:47 AM
@AvbH
Quote
May I ask the following; some of us following the price of gold measure the climb in US Dollars or Euro's. Fair enough but if these currencies are nearly worthless, what is the value of gold?

Selfeducation will take some effort and time  --> www.mises.org
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on August 25, 2011, 04:09:28 AM
The survivalist guys I know are buying rugged plastic wide mouth quart size screw on top containers and filling them up by weight with "junk" silver coins and some gold coins

There are a couple of drawbacks to that.  One is if you kick the bucket and haven't told your wife what there containers are then you may have cheated her out of your hard earned cash.

The other drawback reminds me of something that happened to a friend back in the 1960's.   Harry was a John Deere tractor dealer who didn't trust banks.  He had $ 135,000 burried in his garden (this is the 1960's so it was a lot in those days)  Harry was 75 and turning his business over to his kids one of which was a good friend of mine.  Harry's wife at 75 decided to leave Harry for a younger man and of course took the jugs of cash and in the divorce they counted for nothing since no one could prove they existed.  Harry had to sell the JD dealership that had been in his family since 1919 to settle the divorce. 

Hiding your money can be a bitch if  you don't tell your wife and it can be one if you do.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 25, 2011, 09:20:55 AM
Cufflinks when you copy someones quotes take the entire meaning.

I said the following:
Gold is no different.  Right now it is going up but it will come down.  Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.  The question is when?  Could be 1, 10, or 50 plus years.  If you bought gold at $800 you probably safe longterm.

However you post this: Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.  Than you add your own words like I think it is happening this year.

In future copy my entire post and do not write over my words.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Rasputin on August 25, 2011, 09:35:06 AM
Time to think like a real survivalist if you want to survive. :money:

A real survivalist IMHO would have a few hundred acres, a hut, some seed potatoes, a pair of goats and would have learned how to be his own blacksmith, and just to be safe, would know how to knap flint, make his own bows and arrows and would be able to tan hides...   tiphat Anything less is survivalist posing  :scared0005:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Boris on August 25, 2011, 09:51:01 AM
Time to think like a real survivalist if you want to survive. :money:

A real survivalist IMHO would have a few hundred acres, a hut, some seed potatoes, a pair of goats and would have learned how to be his own blacksmith, and just to be safe, would know how to knap flint, make his own bows and arrows and would be able to tan hides...   tiphat Anything less is survivalist posing  :scared0005:

Posers? On RUA? Preposterous... :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on August 25, 2011, 09:52:55 AM
Time to think like a real survivalist if you want to survive. :money:

A real survivalist IMHO would have a few hundred acres, a hut, some seed potatoes, a pair of goats and would have learned how to be his own blacksmith, and just to be safe, would know how to knap flint, make his own bows and arrows and would be able to tan hides...   tiphat Anything less is survivalist posing  :scared0005:

...Or move to Nunavut where this is considered the good life... :innocent:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 25, 2011, 10:03:20 AM
@Kievstar
[qoute]Interest rates will increase and the economy will recover.  The question is when?  Could be 1, 10, or 50 plus years. [/quote]

I agree, within 500 years there will certainly be wars, increase interest rates,. decrease interest rates....,whatever.

Choose your timespan long enough and anything can happen.  :coffeeread:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 25, 2011, 02:20:47 PM
Navigating the Financial Markets with an Austrian Compass




and ye ended the lesson!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on August 26, 2011, 01:30:19 PM
So JC, your saying interest rates will not increase for 500 years?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 26, 2011, 01:58:39 PM
So JC, your saying interest rates will not increase for 500 years?

500 years from now there will still be suckpuppets acting like they dont understand English, sure!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2011, 02:19:08 PM
Time to think like a real survivalist if you want to survive. :money:

A real survivalist IMHO would have a few hundred acres, a hut, some seed potatoes, a pair of goats and would have learned how to be his own blacksmith, and just to be safe, would know how to knap flint, make his own bows and arrows and would be able to tan hides...   tiphat Anything less is survivalist posing  :scared0005:

Posers? On RUA? Preposterous... :laugh:

Bows and Freaking Arrows?  A compound bow maybe but Dude that's why the Chinese invented Gun Powder a thousand years ago - so a couple of Black Powder Rifles (to back up a 12 guage pump and 30-06 with a hand cannon .357 Magnum) so you can make your own ammo and powder if need be, some basic fishing gear, wire snares along with a great Tree Ax and a Two man crosscut saw and I am good to go - oh and the Post Hole Digger as previously discussed :smokin:

In 6mos time I would have a lodge that looked like a mini Fort Ticonderoga!

Before I was a Military man I was trained by one of the best Survivalists in New England a tough old Yankee who was a gunsmith and infantry rifleman during the Korean War in the US Army - those were the real survivalists.  Tougher than me and anybody else on this board except maybe a few select FSUW  :8)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 26, 2011, 02:27:50 PM
Quote
Tougher than me and anybody else on this board

cmon,..,these Koreans were midgets

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2011, 02:37:23 PM
JC...

LOL you just put a big smile on my face - I think you may have your Koreans and Japanese confused a bit... plenty of 6 ft tall Korean men and 5'5" plus Korean women - and having lived in Honolulu I know for a fact the Korean women have skills. :biggrin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Rasputin on August 26, 2011, 02:42:37 PM
Bows and Freaking Arrows?  A compound bow maybe but Dude that's why the Chinese invented Gun Powder a thousand years ago - so a couple of Black Powder Rifles (to back up a 12 guage pump and 30-06 with a hand cannon .357 Magnum) so you can make your own ammo and powder if need be, some basic fishing gear, wire snares along with a great Tree Ax and a Two man crosscut saw and I am good to go - oh and the Post Hole Digger as previously discussed :smokin:

Let's assume that you will be able to make your own black powder, good luck manufacturing the wire snares, the crosscut saw or even a decent tree ax  tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2011, 02:51:49 PM
Point is I already have them...  thats why I said survivalist not stoneage Neanderthalist

Time to listen and get your Cro Magn-On :smokin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 26, 2011, 03:01:29 PM
Cuffy,

Assuming you are not on the coast, I would sharpen the teeth on the chain saw and get ready to be making splitting wood next week.

I have spent the better part of the day moving kayaks and other self propelled vessels to higher ground. Plus all the stupid lawn patio shit indoors. Tomorrow will be moving a sailboat upriver.

Though it looks like Irene may blow her wad before she reaches Long Island. Off course if she wipes out some real estate on South Hampton or Martha's Vineyard I will not shed too many tears.

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Rasputin on August 26, 2011, 03:02:18 PM
Point is I already have them...  thats why I said survivalist not stoneage Neanderthalist

Time to listen and get your Cro Magn-On :smokin:

Ah, so you wan't to be a survivalist, but only the survivalist with the comforts of modern civilization. But that's okay, in complete chaos, you could go from survivalist, to scavenging survivalist to extinct  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2011, 03:11:46 PM
There were 3 wild turkey hens munching away under my bird feeders last week eating the spillover - yum - you do not know me but I am one of the few guys if dropped in the middle of the woods with an axe and a pocket knife would survive just fine...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on August 26, 2011, 03:43:08 PM
I know for a fact the Korean women have skills. :biggrin:

Endulge us with anekdotes...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2011, 03:44:14 PM
I know for a fact the Korean women have skills. :biggrin:

Endulge us with anekdotes...

People PAY me for that kind of information!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 31, 2011, 04:19:41 PM
Peter Schiff's Dashboard:
http://www.europac.net/media/peters_dashboard

Peter Schiff on Ron Paul and the Liberal Biased Media:

By:  Peter Schiff
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Picking up where they left off in 2008, the media is in the midst of a campaign to ignore and undermine the presidential candidacy of Ron Paul (they gave me even rougher treatment during my 2010 Senate run).  Political pundits just do not know what to do with a candidate who fails to fit into the blue and red boxes that form the simple narrative of American politics. They are perturbed by the grass roots nature of the campaign, by the strange honesty and earnestness of the candidate and his supporters, and the odd mixture of conservative values and liberty-minded policies. And like most adolescents, they reject what they don't understand.


The media's revulsion reached a fever pitch in the wake of the August 12 Iowa Straw Poll, the first test of the strength of Republican Presidential candidates. Objectively the results were a dead heat between Michelle Bachman and Ron Paul, who captured 28% and 27% of the votes respectively. But you would never have known that based on the subsequent media coverage.


The story that almost all news outlets ran with was that the poll produced a "top-tier" of candidates that included Bachman, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry (both Romney and Perry received less than 5% of the Iowa vote). There was almost no mention of Congressman Paul's strong performance. The media also ignored how Perry's entrance into the race will draw votes away from Bachman, thereby benefiting Paul. The media silence even prompted comedian Jon Stewart to issue a hilarious and scathing indictment.


Now the media is even impugning what should be seen as the Congressman's most successful accomplishment: the performance of his investment portfolio.   


In an August 20 article entitled "Candidate of Doom and Gloom," Barron's Magazine goes out of its way to characterize Ron Paul's gold mining-heavy portfolio allocation as simplistic, robotic, and unpatriotic. And while the reporter, Barron's Washington bureau chief Jim McTague, grudgingly recognized how these "stopped clock" investments had made strong gains over the last few years, he glaringly under-reported the long term success and wisdom of the Congressman's strategy.


By any objective standard the portfolio would make any financial superstar green with jealousy. Fueled by his understanding of the inflationary policies unrelentingly pushed by his colleagues in Washington, Ron wisely loaded up on gold and gold mining stocks in the mid to late 1990s when those assets were regarded as the poor stepchildren of Wall Street. Although these assets have significantly beaten the broad markets over the one and three year time frames used in the article, most of their phenomenal gains occurred earlier in the last decade. McTague, however, completely neglects to mention this despite his noting that Ron Paul favored a "buy and hold" strategy that surely gave him exposure to those fat years.


Amazingly, the average 10 year return of the 8 stocks listed in his top 10 holdings (that have 10 year track records - the two other positions have not been around that long) came in at more than 600%! During that time frame the S&P 500 was down 3%. Is there any stock mutual fund that can even touch that performance over a decade? Not likely.


If Barron's chooses to label this strategy as "stopped clock" investing, so be it. But a more honest assessment would simply call it "successful" investing.   


But ignoring his returns is just a minor offense in the article. Its main attack is far more subtle. Using evangelical language, McTague stresses that the Congressman's investment decisions were informed by a lack of faith in the United States. His portfolio is described as a "super bearish bet against the United States," implying that the Congressman is unpatriotic. Would it have been more patriotic to foolishly bet on the U.S. economy and to have gone broke like the majority of American investors?


More pernicious still are implications that the Congressman opposed the recent debt ceiling increase because he was looking to goose his investment returns. The article argues that an engineered default (by failing to raise the ceiling) would have caused economic crisis in the U.S., thereby pushing up the price of gold and gold-related investments. Not only is this a low blow but the logic is faulty at its core.


It is much more likely that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would have signaled an end to reckless spending and currency debasement, which would have restored confidence in the U.S. dollar and taken the shine off of gold and gold-related investments. In fact, all of Paul's efforts in Congress over the decades to champion more responsible monetary and fiscal policy can be seen as detrimental to his own investment portfolio. If anything, his actions have been selfless rather than selfish.


Like most investment professionals, Ron Paul's opponents likely failed to comprehend the damage the overly expansive monetary and fiscal policy would do to our economy and, as a result, adopted mainstream investment strategies. While Barron's could try to characterize such approaches as being more patriotic, it certainly cannot describe them as being more successful. Isn't it about time we elected a president with some substance rather than someone who pantomimes in the preferred manner? Who do we want working in the Oval Office anyway: one of the few who understood how government policy would undermine our economy, and arranged his finances to profit from it, or one of many who had no clue?


The fact that Ron Paul chose to invest as he has is a testament to his intellect and his pragmatism. The fact that he voted the way he did, and tried relentlessly to persuade his colleagues to do likewise, in direct opposition to his personal investment strategy, is a testament to his patriotism. He knew that his appeals would fall on deaf ears and that Washington would destroy the dollar in its quest to "save" the economy. So while he tried to stop the train from running off a cliff, he took the sensible step of buying a parachute. Sounds like a guy I would like to see in the White House.


Too bad no one in the media seems to share these views.


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 31, 2011, 11:00:43 PM
Peter is right on the money about Ron Paul. I agree a 100%  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 01, 2011, 01:36:58 PM
Pento:  Do not put your money in Banks!  (Pento works for Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital).  Peter Schiff is a major financial advisor to Ron Paul:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/never-buy-treasuries-bullish-gold-mike-pento-sounds-153352145.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

"You have to be bullish on gold," he says. "The Fed is stuck at zero for at least another two years…which guarantees real interest rates will be negative for a very long time."

Returning to the dramatic statements for which he's become famous, Pento refers to Ben Bernanke as "the Counterfeiter in Chief" and warns the Fed chairman "will do what ever it takes" to avoid a repeat of 1937, when austerity measures (fiscal an monetary) tripped the U.S. economy, which was just emerging from the Great Depression, back into a deep recession.

"He'll board his fleet of helicopters and rain dollars on the American people," Pento says of Bernanke. "I'm telling you — do not keep your money in the bank. You have to buy something the government cannot duplicate by fiat."

In addition to gold, Pento is bullish on shares of international commodity producers like Rio Tino and BHP Billiton that pay dividends, energy stocks, farmland and REITs, but the latter are only "a go until interest rates rise either via the Fed, which will never happen, or through market forces, which is bound to happen."
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 02, 2011, 10:11:31 AM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 02, 2011, 11:25:50 AM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Once the Oblowme genius reveals his same old socialist agenda, centralized government "new" plan I wouldn't be surprised if Gold started testing the $2000 threshold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on September 02, 2011, 11:45:49 AM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Once the Oblowme genius reveals his same old socialist agenda, centralized government "new" plan I wouldn't be surprised if Gold started testing the $2000 threshold.

Ed, conservatives, et.al.

Please desist of your description of Obama as a socialist. The man cannot be more on your side if he tried. Actually, he tried: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/obama-pulls-back-proposed-smog-standards-in-victory-for-business/2011/09/02/gIQAisTiwJ_story.html?wpisrc=al_national
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 02, 2011, 12:17:27 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Once the Oblowme genius reveals his same old socialist agenda, centralized government "new" plan I wouldn't be surprised if Gold started testing the $2000 threshold.

Ed, conservatives, et.al.

Please desist of your description of Obama as a socialist. The man cannot be more on your side if he tried. Actually, he tried: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/obama-pulls-back-proposed-smog-standards-in-victory-for-business/2011/09/02/gIQAisTiwJ_story.html?wpisrc=al_national
My side is free, constitutional, non socialist USA with as little corruption as possible. I don't agree with everything conservatives advocate but I don't agree with anything Obama socialist (the son of communist daddy Obama) is doing. This is my opinion and I'm going to express it whether you like it or not. Freedom of speech is still legal in this country last I checked. Don't know if this is gonna be the case if them social democrats remain in power for another term. I'm simply frustrated and disgusted what they are doing to this country.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 02, 2011, 01:06:27 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!

JC I really wish you would stop paying all the strippers with gold - you are ruining it for those of us stuck with Obamugabe Bucks :smokin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on September 02, 2011, 01:49:54 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Once the Oblowme genius reveals his same old socialist agenda, centralized government "new" plan I wouldn't be surprised if Gold started testing the $2000 threshold.

Ed, conservatives, et.al.

Please desist of your description of Obama as a socialist. The man cannot be more on your side if he tried. Actually, he tried: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/obama-pulls-back-proposed-smog-standards-in-victory-for-business/2011/09/02/gIQAisTiwJ_story.html?wpisrc=al_national
My side is free, constitutional, non socialist USA with as little corruption as possible. I don't agree with everything conservatives advocate but I don't agree with anything Obama socialist (the son of communist daddy Obama) is doing. This is my opinion and I'm going to express it whether you like it or not. Freedom of speech is still legal in this country last I checked. Don't know if this is gonna be the case if them social democrats remain in power for another term. I'm simply frustrated and disgusted what they are doing to this country.

Ed, no need to get into a tizzy. I posted that in jest, never did I intend to tell you not to express your constitutional rights.

However, what he just did has all Republicans and oil and coal magnates popping the cork. I thought you'd be happy.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 02, 2011, 02:04:49 PM
One thing I remember about Moscow in March of 2010 was that when I opened my apt window I could taste the air - don't know if it is all the trucks burning heavy mazut fuel oil or that cars and trucks without catalytic converters - sort of like any Mexican city or North England Village when the Pubs are burning coal for "ambiance".

Can't recall the last time I could taste the air in any USA city unless driving behind an Asphalt carrying 10 wheeler or by an Oil Refinery.

Point is we can hold off a bit of more EPA economy killing regulations for now.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 02, 2011, 02:10:57 PM
One thing I remember about Moscow in March of 2010 was that when I opened my apt window I could taste the air - don't know if it is all the trucks burning heavy mazut fuel oil or that cars and trucks without catalytic converters - sort of like any Mexican city or North England Village when the Pubs are burning coal for "ambiance".

Can't recall the last time I could taste the air in any USA city unless driving behind an Asphalt carrying 10 wheeler or by an Oil Refinery.

Point is we can hold off a bit of more EPA economy killing regulations for now.
hey, he goes after Gibson guitars business! while not touching their competitors who use the same wood. Here is an idea for you - corruption! Everything this guy touches turns to shit.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 02, 2011, 04:15:22 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!

JC I really wish you would stop paying all the strippers with gold - you are ruining it for those of us stuck with Obamugabe Bucks :smokin:

apology #2 coming.

i was sure gold was continuing on down when it dropped into the low $1700s and my #1 advisor said to not buy until 1600. i dont think its going to 1600 now but i'm short enough that i can wait for the next pullback, even if it isnt for 3 months. i was  all ready to buy at 1600 and gloat, darn.  :)

thought i'd pass along that guy says he can see gold $3000(after a serious pullback) or better until the US comes to grips w/ reality or the bond market forces reality upon us.  :hidechair:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 03, 2011, 01:36:56 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!

JC I really wish you would stop paying all the strippers with gold - you are ruining it for those of us stuck with Obamugabe Bucks :smokin:

apology #2 coming.

i was sure gold was continuing on down when it dropped into the low $1700s and my #1 advisor said to not buy until 1600. i dont think its going to 1600 now but i'm short enough that i can wait for the next pullback, even if it isnt for 3 months. i was  all ready to buy at 1600 and gloat, darn.  :)

thought i'd pass along that guy says he can see gold $3000(after a serious pullback) or better until the US comes to grips w/ reality or the bond market forces reality upon us.  :hidechair:

Schiff and Pento over a few martinis are known to project long term Gold at $5K, $10K and even $20K per little troy ounce as the US Fed Gov will be running $1T thats Trillion dollar plus deficits per year for the next 10 years and forseeable future that they know is unsustainable as we are now paying 30% of the federal budget on debt service and can not even afford that with fighting two unending wars and $100T in unfunded medicaid, medicare, social security and gov pension benefits. 

One thing is sure if you are under 60 do not expect to retire until you are 70 to 75 years old!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 03, 2011, 02:12:34 PM
Gold is 1875. teasing 1900 like a stripper!
Once the Oblowme genius reveals his same old socialist agenda, centralized government "new" plan I wouldn't be surprised if Gold started testing the $2000 threshold.

Ed, conservatives, et.al.

Please desist of your description of Obama as a socialist.


LOL, first amendment sucks , don't it?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 03, 2011, 02:14:08 PM
The Latest Column by Peter Schiff in Forbes hot off the presses:

Obama Looking Like Job Killer In Chief

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-looking-job-killer-chief-223223598.html

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 03, 2011, 02:16:53 PM
@LH
Quote
i was sure gold was continuing on down when it dropped into the low $1700s and my #1 advisor said to not buy until 1600.

Who is your #1 this week? 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 03, 2011, 02:17:58 PM
The Latest Column by Peter Schiff in Forbes hot off the presses:

Obama Looking Like Job Killer In Chief

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-looking-job-killer-chief-223223598.html

Government cannot create jobs....except in socialist countries!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 03, 2011, 02:42:16 PM
The Latest Column by Peter Schiff in Forbes hot off the presses:

Obama Looking Like Job Killer In Chief

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-looking-job-killer-chief-223223598.html
this article summarizes everything quite nicely
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 04, 2011, 02:09:12 PM
Well so much for keeping any gold in Switzerland - they some to be caving in faster than a mud hut in an earthquake:

U.S. sets ultimatum in Swiss bank tax dispute: reports
By Emma Thomasson

ZURICH (Reuters) - The United States has written to Switzerland to demand it hands over detailed information this week on its citizens using Swiss accounts to dodge tax or see Credit Suisse and nine other banks face charges, newspapers reported on Sunday.

The letter, quoted by two Swiss Sunday papers, was sent by U.S. Deputy Attorney General James Cole on August 31 and demands detailed figures on tax evasion at Credit Suisse by Tuesday and also seeks information from nine other smaller Swiss banks.

In the letter, Cole demands that Switzerland quickly deliver a significant number of client accounts, the SonntagsZeitung reported, adding that U.S. authorities are also ready to examine a Swiss offer to settle the dispute.

Mario Tuor, a spokesman for the Swiss department for international financial affairs, would only say that Switzerland was in contact with the United States but declined to comment on the letter.
"We are seeking a solution on the basis of existing laws," he said.

Switzerland last month made a proposal to try to kickstart talks to settle its impasse with U.S. authorities, offering to hand over data on groups of clients under a pending new bilateral tax treaty despite strict bank secrecy.
A long tradition of bank secrecy has helped Switzerland build up a $2 trillion offshore financial industry, but the country has agreed in recent years to do more to help hunt tax cheats amid a global crackdown on tax havens.

US SEEKS THOUSANDS OF CLIENT NAMES

The United States is pushing for Switzerland to hand over thousands more bank client names as it did last year when it allowed UBS to bend bank secrecy and reveal the details of around 4,450 clients to avoid criminal charges.

"They won't be contented with less than in the UBS case," former U.S. Justice Department investigator Peter Henning told the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper.

He added that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service felt betrayed because many UBS clients had shifted their assets to smaller Swiss banks rather than declaring them.

The SonntagsZeitung quoted Swiss sources close to the talks as saying Washington is seeking details of all U.S. clients with accounts worth at least $50,000 between 2002 and 2010 at banks including Credit Suisse, private banks Julius Baer and Wegelin as well as the Zurich and Basel cantonal banks.

That could imply tens of thousands of accounts, the paper said, far more than Switzerland could deliver under a double taxation agreement with the United States that it approved in 2009 but is still awaiting ratification by the U.S. Senate.

Switzerland is keen to find a solution that would not need approval from parliament, seen as likely to block any new breach of bank secrecy after only reluctantly agreeing to the UBS treaty under emergency law last year.
If Switzerland does not comply, the United States could issue a subpoena against the banks to force them to hand over data, as it did in the case of UBS, the SonntagsZeitung and NZZ am Sonntag reported.

"This will be much more expensive as with UBS that had to pay a fine of $780 million," one banking source told the SonntagsZeitung. "We expect that the Swiss banks will have to pay a fine of up to 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.6 billion) and deliver much more client data than in the UBS case."

Henning said the United States would probably launch criminal charges against a smaller Swiss bank rather than Credit Suisse as it was too critical to the global financial system.

Last month, Switzerland struck deals with Germany and Britain to tax money kept by their residents in secret Swiss accounts and also introduce a withholding tax on future interest earned, a proposal rejected by Washington.

($1 = 0.783 Swiss Francs)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 04, 2011, 03:40:00 PM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on September 04, 2011, 06:37:23 PM
OK why not some islands, Far Tortuga at least the diving is good!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 04, 2011, 08:17:18 PM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?

Of course what a great idea, the IRS and the US Attorney General would never go after the Panamanian banks or government.   :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 05, 2011, 01:21:50 AM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?

Of course what a great idea, the IRS and the US Attorney General would never go after the Panamanian banks or government.   :ROFL:

Reading comprehension,..,I was talking about emigration,..,not just a foreign bank account!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 05, 2011, 04:24:08 AM
OK why not some islands, Far Tortuga at least the diving is good!

Thats the life
(http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1175/1453823472_8b19f9e7aa_o.jpg)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 05, 2011, 09:48:13 AM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?

Of course what a great idea, the IRS and the US Attorney General would never go after the Panamanian banks or government.   :ROFL:

LOL - The US Govt dangled the Panamanian Free Trade Agreement to keep Panama in the "US Sphere of influence" now that the Communist Red Army Controlled Workers Paradise China sent 40,000 "technicians" to build the new super cargo carrier ultra wide 3rd and perhaps 4th Panama Canals so they can dump their cheap junk at ports nearest the Arkansas world WalMart HQ - only thing stopping the US Government and IRS which are starving for ever more tax revenue from saying that "if you do business in the USA you MUST Pay USA Federal Personal and Business Taxes" is ironically the WTO which is what allows our Multinationals P&G, McDonalds, YUM, Apple, Cisco, HP, Microsoft et al to claim that they have profits "trapped" offshore and they need a 1 day tax amnesty to repatriate the funds so they can create jobs in the USA - last time they got an amnesty all the jobs that were created were in China and India..

So Panama Caved in like a Cheap Whore on sailors holiday at the sight of a $50 bill.  Only way to avoid USA personal and corporate taxes is to move yourself and your companies offshore and give up your USA citizenship - if you have any loyalty to this country and paid into the Social Security and Medicare Safety net you risk giving that all up in case crap hits the fan in your Banana Republic or 3rd world crap hole of choice.

Which is why USA IRS and Treas Dept suing most of the Major Swiss Banks including world reknown Private Bankers now that UBS caved and paid nearly $800 USD Million in fines for aiding and abetting tax evasion.

Maybe that's why Jimmy Rogers (George Soros former Quantum Fund partner another patriot) moved himself and his family and wealth to Singapore!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 05, 2011, 09:52:05 AM
OK why not some islands, Far Tortuga at least the diving is good!

Thats the life
(http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1175/1453823472_8b19f9e7aa_o.jpg)

Go Figure - JC shows a boat pic with 9 guys and 3 women - looks like a gay old time if you ask me!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 05, 2011, 10:54:12 AM
GOLD 1901 :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:

Hey Cuff, dont be jeleous,.,if you ask nicely you can have a turn at the wheel sometime....

Ok,..,maybe not....


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on September 05, 2011, 12:51:31 PM
3 transom trolleys, 8 grinders, helmsman plus the fotogragher on a late IOR boat.  :sick0012:

I will stay on my Star!  :knit:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 05, 2011, 01:12:24 PM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?

Of course what a great idea, the IRS and the US Attorney General would never go after the Panamanian banks or government.   :ROFL:

Reading comprehension,..,I was talking about emigration,..,not just a foreign bank account!

Yes of course that explains it so much better.  Live in Panama instead of Switzerland.  Doing business in Panama would be so much better than doing business in Switzerland.  Panama has a corruption index of 3.6/10 (higher is better), Switzerland has a corruption index of 8.7/10.  At least the surfing is better in Panama.   

[edit: Insult removed. Brass]

http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 05, 2011, 01:52:31 PM
3 transom trolleys, 8 grinders, helmsman plus the fotogragher on a late IOR boat.  :sick0012:

I will stay on my Star!  :knit:

I thought yu had to sell your boat already)))
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on September 05, 2011, 02:51:08 PM
1 post edited - insulting content. 1 post removed - insult.

Westy and JC,

Confine the insults to the OT&H.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 06, 2011, 01:38:55 PM
The Luxembourgers doubled down and said FUUUUCK YOU!

Why dont those people just say 'shove it' and move their business to Panama?

Of course what a great idea, the IRS and the US Attorney General would never go after the Panamanian banks or government.   :ROFL:

Reading comprehension,..,I was talking about emigration,..,not just a foreign bank account!

Yes of course that explains it so much better.  Live in Panama instead of Switzerland.  Doing business in Panama would be so much better than doing business in Switzerland.  Panama has a corruption index of 3.6/10 (higher is better), Switzerland has a corruption index of 8.7/10.  At least the surfing is better in Panama.   

[edit: Insult removed. Brass]

http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2010/results

Well looks like the two tied for least corrupt are Denmark and New Zealand with Chile and Uruguay not too bad in S.A. and OZ, Canada and Nordics on the upper end of the global scale and Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan bringing up the rear 1.6.

Of course one wonders about the objectivity of these transparency ratings when Zimbawe at 2.4 is rated higher than Russia at 2.1?  I find that laughable really.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 15, 2011, 02:09:43 PM
ECB raises interest rates to be on par with inflation,..., these will impact the gold price negativly!!!


Also more then likely Greece will be amputated out of the Eurozone..., this will be a good thing for the currency!

Good buying oppertunity for gold!  (1789 USD now)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 15, 2011, 04:00:54 PM
ECB raises interest rates to be on par with inflation,..., these will impact the gold price negativly!!!


Also more then likely Greece will be amputated out of the Eurozone..., this will be a good thing for the currency!

Good buying oppertunity for gold!  (1789 USD now)

i would wait until it drops under 1700. w/ central banks throwing money around in the EU to save greece and others now and in the US speculation that the US FED may do something at their upcoming meeting, i'm speculating this rally continues into next week and keeps knocking down gold.

also, gold's been pretty overbought for a while.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 15, 2011, 04:52:40 PM
ECB raises interest rates to be on par with inflation,..., these will impact the gold price negativly!!!


Also more then likely Greece will be amputated out of the Eurozone..., this will be a good thing for the currency!

Good buying oppertunity for gold!  (1789 USD now)

i would wait until it drops under 1700. w/ central banks throwing money around in the EU to save greece and others now and in the US speculation that the US FED may do something at their upcoming meeting, i'm speculating this rally continues into next week and keeps knocking down gold.

also, gold's been pretty overbought for a while.

Clueless!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 15, 2011, 06:30:16 PM
ECB raises interest rates to be on par with inflation,..., these will impact the gold price negativly!!!


Also more then likely Greece will be amputated out of the Eurozone..., this will be a good thing for the currency!

Good buying oppertunity for gold!  (1789 USD now)

i would wait until it drops under 1700. w/ central banks throwing money around in the EU to save greece and others now and in the US speculation that the US FED may do something at their upcoming meeting, i'm speculating this rally continues into next week and keeps knocking down gold.

also, gold's been pretty overbought for a while.
Lee, the shit is going to hit the fan pretty soon IMO. There's gonna be a very serious inflation, hopefully not hyper inflation but I expect gold to go up to 5K or more. It may drop down to $1700, tomorrow, then again it might not but the dollar is going to shit until they decide to raise interest rates. Only then gold is going to go down and will probably stabilize somewhere in the area of $2500 to $3000. But before that happens it is not out of the question that it will get close to $10,000.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: 2tallbill on September 15, 2011, 10:16:57 PM

Clueless!!

JC gold has skyrocketed, it's bound to pop up and down a bit.
with a general trend upwards. I disagree with Lee, if it's a buy
at 1700 then it's a buy at 1786 however deciding to buy at
1700 if it drops down to that wouldn't be a bad idea would it?

I also remember when Carter was president and gold was at
nearly $700 and everyone that bought it got burned a little later
when Reagan was president and he got inflation under control
Paul Volker (spelling?) helped. Gold prices were under $400 for
over a decade.

Saying he is clueless? surely you can make a better argument than
that.

Bill
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 16, 2011, 06:27:24 AM

Clueless!!

JC gold has skyrocketed, it's bound to pop up and down a bit.
with a general trend upwards. I disagree with Lee, if it's a buy
at 1700 then it's a buy at 1786 however deciding to buy at
1700 if it drops down to that wouldn't be a bad idea would it?

I also remember when Carter was president and gold was at
nearly $700 and everyone that bought it got burned a little later
when Reagan was president and he got inflation under control
Paul Volker (spelling?) helped. Gold prices were under $400 for
over a decade.

Saying he is clueless? surely you can make a better argument than
that.

Bill
dollar cost averaging would be a smart idea. It applies to gold too.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 16, 2011, 09:40:04 AM
Several months ago I mentioned is gold going to 2,000 or 1,000 next.  We still do not know. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 16, 2011, 09:54:54 AM
Several months ago I mentioned is gold going to 2,000 or 1,000 next.  We still do not know.
we don't??? Do you see anything on the news that I don't? Today they are saying that economists predict that there is 1 out of 3 chance of another recession (as if we ever got out of the first one). Obama is continuing his policy based on his ideology, nothing is changing therefore we are approaching a serious crisis. How is that conducive to gold going down I don't know.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 16, 2011, 09:57:04 AM
Gold is at 1804.10 right now... good luck waiting for thet 1700 mark...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 16, 2011, 11:55:27 AM
Gold is at 1804.10 right now... good luck waiting for thet 1700 mark...

LOL!  Right on bro! Mr Clue (lee) is missing the mark every time if you hear his "almost bought gold , but waited to long".jive.. :ROFL:...A lesson to be learned here, but i guess making smart investment decision is better left to Mr Clue's "advisors"..

@Tallbilly
Quote
however deciding to buy at
1700 if it drops down to that wouldn't be a bad idea would it?

You know what the shortterm price of gold is going to be in advance? Thats a pretty cool trick bro,,....,   :ROFL: :ROFL: :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 16, 2011, 03:41:32 PM
ECB raises interest rates to be on par with inflation,..., these will impact the gold price negativly!!!


Also more then likely Greece will be amputated out of the Eurozone..., this will be a good thing for the currency!

Good buying oppertunity for gold!  (1789 USD now)

i would wait until it drops under 1700. w/ central banks throwing money around in the EU to save greece and others now and in the US speculation that the US FED may do something at their upcoming meeting, i'm speculating this rally continues into next week and keeps knocking down gold.

also, gold's been pretty overbought for a while.

Clueless!!

sorry, i am not clueless.

yes, gold will go higher; maybe significantly higher; like over $3000.

i'm agreeing with Ed here that the sh*t will hit the fan and its going to take gold much higher. i disagree that its going to happen soon though; i'm speculating the EU and US central banks will keep pushing it off for at least another year until the bond markets say enough.

now, on gold; it doesnt take a rocket scientist to follow a chart. gold made a parabolic up over the past 6 months; even though everyone and their brother is buying it; its still got to work out the move it has made.

it either needs a real pullback(to under 1700 IMO) or will need to toil along between 1750 and 1850 a while longer until it works out of the move it made to go to higher highs. no tricks claude, just following a chart.

you are free to disagree with me, but i have seen this enough to know thats whats happening. the s+p is doing the same currently, but its most likely gping the other way unless QE 3 comes in.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 16, 2011, 05:14:51 PM
A sober analysis by Peter Schiff's Congressional Testimony:

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/how_government_can_create_jobs
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 16, 2011, 11:59:13 PM
GOld was about 1600 (approx) on 1 AUG THE BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH been rising 

Its now peaked 1920, next week, easily breaking 2000 without a fuuucking sweat!!!

and when that barrier breaks,,,, its not going to be funny.

excuse me, but i think this was by you nearly a month ago now JC. so, you are no more a genuis than I.

my speculation of now as a consolidation/correction period is just as valid or more than your speculation.  i had a good article explaining this, but i think i threw it out as i've thrown out almost everything except the articles i referred to in my book since i'm putting my condo up for sale.

i say again, yes; gold will go higher; but adding here; it is more likely you lose a little before it resumes its climb. even as bad as the global economy is, it is subject to the same patterns that any other stock is.

i'm looking for the mkt rally to continue and gold to decline until the next fed meeting this month when the mkt figures out the fed cant do anything, then gold will take off again. i'd advise buying or adding after the meeting.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on September 17, 2011, 03:31:33 AM
@Mr johnny-come-lately.
Quote
excuse me, but i think this was by you nearly a month ago now JC. so, you are no more a genuis than I.

Being a genius has nothing to do with it, just using common sense! and think for yourself instead of delegating it to (your quote) "advisors"/

I started this thread when gold was at 1100 approx, its now over 1800 (peaked 1920)..,Some people would call it a winnings streak,, I call it "the school of Austrian economics". (www.mises.org)

Since that time we have heard nothing from you then the "..recovery is just around the corner.."  :ROFL:  Voodoo-witch-doctor-Keynesian-crap.  Untill you selfadmittedly converted to "Hey, printing money indeed doesnt work" (lightbulb moment) and getting some tin-foil-hat-education by watching "Zeitgeist" (wtf?) :D

...Wow...maybe the Titanic was sinking (once "Mr Clue" saw the bow of the ship was sticking its ass in the air.)..yup.., your just as smart as me alright.... :ROFL:  Congrats!!

Back to serious issues:

Sure there is still a lot of volatility because obviously a lot of $$$ dumbfuucksss with cash still playing around with asset classes they should stay away from,..., I guess some considering buying UBS stock aswell..

As I clearly stated before (Mr Clue paying attention?) Gold will go down if:

1) INterest rates go up and FED STOPS printing money
2) we go back to the gold standard (impossible with the USD)
3) Ron Paul gets elected and he abolished the fed before he gets assasinated (Nearly happened with President Jackson when he killed the second incarnation of the Federal Reserve)



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 20, 2011, 10:48:50 AM
To me "clueless" is someone who is absolutely postive gold will go to $ 3000.00 or $ 2000.00 or even $ 1000.00.  There are no absolutes and no one can say with any certainty what gold will do.  If the economic worries continue, gold will likely go up.  If the economy starts to hum, it will likely go down (the odds seem a little better for me winning the lottery with our current president)

I am not a fan of gold but have invested for decades.  One observation is that when any market has crashed the time it will start to soar is when virtually every investor thinks there is no hope for anything but doom.  When the market has soared for a long long long time it will go down about the time everyone is saying it is going up another 50% or more.  Markets are most always unpredictable. 

I think about 40 pages or so I said I thought gold would go down to $ 1250 or so.  At that time it looked like the economy was getting better.  I do think it could go well over 2 grand right now but I also think in the short term with some good economic news it could drop down to $ 1700 or below and buying on dips is usually smart as long as the dips come.  Sometimes you miss opportunities and sometimes you don't. 

Clueless is someone who knows it all.  Who cares anyway.  They are playing with thier own money and will make or lose it based on how much they think they know or how much they guess right and investing is guessing to a great degree.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 21, 2011, 11:42:59 AM
Peter Schiff Congressional Testimony:



On Russia Today:

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 21, 2011, 07:05:42 PM
Peter Schiff Congressional Testimony:



On Russia Today:

man, I love this guy!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 22, 2011, 04:15:50 PM
Another really bad day on the stock market, after a bad day yesterday. Dow was down about 280 points yesterday.  Two bad days. 

Dow        10,733.83   -391.01   -3.51%
Nasdaq   2,455.67     -82.52   -3.25%
S&P 500   1,129.56     -37.20   -3.19%
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on September 22, 2011, 04:25:42 PM
Another really bad day on the stock market, after a bad day yesterday. Dow was down about 280 points yesterday.  Two bad days. 

Dow        10,733.83   -391.01   -3.51%
Nasdaq   2,455.67     -82.52   -3.25%
S&P 500   1,129.56     -37.20   -3.19%

TSX down almost 400 points as well. :sick0012:

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 22, 2011, 05:03:55 PM
Hope the market keeps going down.  Change is only going to happen when the poor stop voting democrat. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 23, 2011, 02:58:37 PM
Got this email from a friend that I trust today:


Sarasota county and perhaps the entire state of Florida is trying to pass a law that requires PM dealers, pawn shopes and scrap dealers to hold any buying orders for 30 days, and limit the pay out to sellers to $100.00 per day.

Get ready for trouble. Also the banks will start charging 1% on cash checlking and savings deposits?
A collapse must be close.

Lee, hope you bought some gold today? Your wish did come true and gold is down quite a bit. It's not gonna last long though.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: harry_ on September 23, 2011, 03:43:40 PM
Quote
Also the banks will start charging 1% on cash checlking and savings deposits?

To date, I have not been informed of any such thing by any of the 3 banks I regularly do business with.

I do know that over the summer some knucklehead in Washington fielded that idea as a `tax` which did get any legislative traction what so ever. Haven't heard any more about it since.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 23, 2011, 04:08:12 PM
@Mr johnny-come-lately.
Quote
excuse me, but i think this was by you nearly a month ago now JC. so, you are no more a genuis than I.

Being a genius has nothing to do with it, just using common sense! and think for yourself instead of delegating it to (your quote) "advisors"/

I started this thread when gold was at 1100 approx, its now over 1800 (peaked 1920)..,Some people would call it a winnings streak,, I call it "the school of Austrian economics". (www.mises.org)

Since that time we have heard nothing from you then the "..recovery is just around the corner.."  :ROFL:  Voodoo-witch-doctor-Keynesian-crap.  Untill you selfadmittedly converted to "Hey, printing money indeed doesnt work" (lightbulb moment) and getting some tin-foil-hat-education by watching "Zeitgeist" (wtf?) :D

...Wow...maybe the Titanic was sinking (once "Mr Clue" saw the bow of the ship was sticking its ass in the air.)..yup.., your just as smart as me alright.... :ROFL:  Congrats!!

Back to serious issues:

Sure there is still a lot of volatility because obviously a lot of $$$ dumbfuucksss with cash still playing around with asset classes they should stay away from,..., I guess some considering buying UBS stock aswell..

As I clearly stated before (Mr Clue paying attention?) Gold will go down if:

1) INterest rates go up and FED STOPS printing money
2) we go back to the gold standard (impossible with the USD)
3) Ron Paul gets elected and he abolished the fed before he gets assasinated (Nearly happened with President Jackson when he killed the second incarnation of the Federal Reserve)

sorry buddy, i have never submitted to keynesian policies. i actually emailed the white house when george bush was in(around 2006) and told them to stop spending.

i'm not a keynesian, austrian or misen(is thats somewhere near correct). i'm a chartist, or technical anaylst if you want to be fancy which is why i'd been saying not to buy gold at 1900 or 1800 and to stay out of the market.

there is not one chart anywhere - itsm, unemployment, housing sales that is currently looking good, except the dollar; which is another reason gold has dropped.

and Ed, i did think about buying Gold here; but its not likely Gold goes to $3000 in a year; by that time; there will be plenty of stocks knocked down that will give a better return in the same period; so i'm going to leave it alone.

listen guys, i know you all may not agree with my calls; but i got gold right and i want everyone here at RUA to lose as little as possible and make as much as possible and spend it on their RWs  ;D

i highly recommend going to my #1, www.streetalk.com; and getting their newsletter and following their blog/facebook. its all free. there's going to be money to be made besides gold over the next few years in the market before the next bull cycle starts and these guys are worth the time spent.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 23, 2011, 04:29:06 PM
This week I had Wells Fargo, Citibank, PNC, CIC, CIC-IB, Chase, and BOA all in my office for various meetings as were bidding some of our loans we need and also cash pooling.  Some of the questions I had for them was what is going to happen with individual investors.  This was more for my curiosity. 

Regarding personal bank accounts.  If your not holding a mortgage or good size cash balance, their going to charge you as they do not want business of people with little funds or debt with them.  This is nothing new. 

You have a bank account of $20,000 usd with no debt with them their going to start charging you fees to cover some of Obama's taxes he plans on the banks. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 23, 2011, 06:32:28 PM
Got this email from a friend that I trust today:


Sarasota county and perhaps the entire state of Florida is trying to pass a law that requires PM dealers, pawn shopes and scrap dealers to hold any buying orders for 30 days, and limit the pay out to sellers to $100.00 per day.

Get ready for trouble. Also the banks will start charging 1% on cash checlking and savings deposits?
A collapse must be close.

Lee, hope you bought some gold today? Your wish did come true and gold is down quite a bit. It's not gonna last long though.

Amazing that they would try to limit the amount of business a legal business can do - amazing - beyond bloody liberal its down right Obamunistic!  Makes Karl Marx look like Ron Paul or Peter Schiff - Obama loves to say we all have to share the wealth - taking wealth from those who create it and giving it in taxes to those who do not is misguided at best and both classist and racist (anti white and anti black) at the worst.  Should be focused on helping everyone create wealth with pro small business and large business policies for employers in the USA including tax incentives for investing and creating jobs in the USA and reducing the myriad SS Storm Trooper type of State and Federal regulations that businesses have to waste endless time and money complying with.  No wonder services companies opening off shore along with manufacturers at an accelerating pace.  Limiting transactions to $100 per day is crazy unless they think everyone with PM (Physical Gold or Silver bullion) is a money laundering drug dealer - more heavy handed government regulations to punish the honest law abiding citizens to thwart the cash economy.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 23, 2011, 07:37:34 PM
Gold down almost $100 today.  Down from over $1800, yet the stock market is also down, Greece looks to declare bankruptcy and Italy is in fiscal chaos.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold?  US treasuries in one destination and probably the main beneficiary of the money.   

Gold   1,642.50   -96.70   -5.56%

http://finance.yahoo.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 23, 2011, 08:16:28 PM
.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold? 

It's just going out of everything and onto the sidelines.  People are looking for a safe haven now.   Cash, US Dollars.   :money: :money: :money: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 23, 2011, 08:47:15 PM
.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold? 

It's just going out of everything and onto the sidelines.  People are looking for a safe haven now.   Cash, US Dollars.   :money: :money: :money: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

For the average person this is probably true.  However no company with several hundred million dollars in the stock market is going to cash out of the market and put the cash in a savings account, after all banks go under not only in the US but also in Europe.  Their executives would be sacked.  If the company is that unsure of the future the money will go to the safest investments possible, which include, at the head of the list, US treasuries.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 23, 2011, 09:01:38 PM
I can agree with you to an extent but my own thoughts would be that it would depend on how long they felt they wanted to keep the money on the sidelines.   If it was for a very short time I am not so sure you are right but if they plan to stay out of things for months then yes, treasuries would be a good choice for most.   There must be a lot of money sitting on the sidelines right now since not only did stocks and gold drop but most commodities as well. 

My post was a little tongue in cheek since many consider gold a "safe haven" and this week it seems many feel dollars are safer.  The next few weeks could be quite interesting.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on September 23, 2011, 09:48:16 PM
.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold? 

It's just going out of everything and onto the sidelines.  People are looking for a safe haven now.   Cash, US Dollars.   :money: :money: :money: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Not really, Ray. People sold gold today to cover their losses in the stock market. Today was a good buying opportunity for gold and especially for silver.
Just my opinion.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 23, 2011, 10:47:17 PM
.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold? 

It's just going out of everything and onto the sidelines.  People are looking for a safe haven now.   Cash, US Dollars.   :money: :money: :money: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Not really, Ray. People sold gold today to cover their losses in the stock market. Today was a good buying opportunity for gold and especially for silver.
Just my opinion.

Real Estate is where the buying opportunities are right now.  Nearly every person who has ever become a millionaire (now the minimum equivalent would be 10 million) has done it with real estate.  The list of foreclosures available is huge and the market WILL recover within 3 to 5 years provided we get a Republican back in the White House.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 23, 2011, 10:52:15 PM
Did anyone listen to and enjoy Newt Gingrich's remark that unless WA DC changes and changes dramatically we might as well buy Greek bonds and go down with them??  Funny as heck and so so true.  Since Perry seems to be floundering a good match might be Romney/Gingrich.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 23, 2011, 11:03:16 PM
I can agree with you to an extent but my own thoughts would be that it would depend on how long they felt they wanted to keep the money on the sidelines.   If it was for a very short time I am not so sure you are right but if they plan to stay out of things for months then yes, treasuries would be a good choice for most.   There must be a lot of money sitting on the sidelines right now since not only did stocks and gold drop but most commodities as well. 

My post was a little tongue in cheek since many consider gold a "safe haven" and this week it seems many feel dollars are safer.  The next few weeks could be quite interesting.

TG I understand that you were being tongue in cheek to some extent.  However with the stock market down so much over the past month, gold down, even oil has dropped below $80/barrel, these are signs that the financial downturn could last a while.  T-bills can be had for 28 days, 91 days, 182 days, and 364 days so there is a variety of choices for short term holdings. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 24, 2011, 06:45:05 AM
Not really, Ray. People sold gold today to cover their losses in the stock market. Today was a good buying opportunity for gold and especially for silver.
Just my opinion.

I think you are probably right Eduard but I do think there is also more risk now.  If gold contnues to drop a few more hundred over the next few days or the next week then I do think people could start to worry and sell thier gold causing a bigger drop.  the odds are good however that it is a good buying opportunity.

Anteros, I agree with you that Real Estate offers a good opportunity for profits over the long haul right now.  It's at the biggest bargain level I have seen in my lifetime.  To be talking in the millions you need to think about rentals and have you ever been a landlord?  It can really suck.  I know I prefer to never do it again. 

TG I understand that you were being tongue in cheek to some extent.  However with the stock market down so much over the past month, gold down, even oil has dropped below $80/barrel, these are signs that the financial downturn could last a while.  T-bills can be had for 28 days, 91 days, 182 days, and 364 days so there is a variety of choices for short term holdings. 


Even 28 days can be an eternity if the market decides to rally.  Park your money in a 28 day T-Bill and next week they solve the Greek debt problem, the unemployment rate drops to 8.8%, factory orders show the biggest increase in years and a few more good things happen and the Dow goes up 2000 points and you missed the boat.  Personally I don't think any of that is going to happen and someone would be better off with their money in T-Bills earning .nothing percent.   Personally those scenarios don't show up in my crystal ball.  I think with the leadership we have right now the odds are more for things to drop a lot more and that probably includes gold.  Frankly I think if our current leader gets reelected the whole US economy is probably toast.

Personally I am totally clueless about any concrete knowledge of where people are parking thier money and you may be 100% right that it is in t bills but my gut says some yes, most no.  Bonds seem like another option to me.  A better return and liquid.  Where to park my vast fortune is not one of the problems I deal with.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 24, 2011, 08:44:24 AM
The Russians opt for Stability over Chaos:

Putin to run for Russian presidency in 2012

What do they know that we do not:

Putin, who built his popularity on the back of strong economic growth, told the party congress on Friday that salaries and pensions would continue to grow, and he promised increased funding for education, health care and housing.

But he also cautioned that the government may need to take unpopular steps to cope with the global financial turmoil.

"The task of the government is not only to pour honey into a cup, but sometimes to give bitter medicine," Putin said. "But this should always be done openly and honestly, and then the overwhelming majority of people will understand their government."
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 24, 2011, 11:37:24 AM
TurboGuy,
Yes I have been a landlord but I hired a property management company to do it and their fee was very reasonable so I did not need to worry about it at all.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 24, 2011, 11:42:33 AM
.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold? 

It's just going out of everything and onto the sidelines.  People are looking for a safe haven now.   Cash, US Dollars.   :money: :money: :money: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Not really, Ray. People sold gold today to cover their losses in the stock market. Today was a good buying opportunity for gold and especially for silver.
Just my opinion.

Eduard if you still think that Gold is your only option and you are putting all of your eggs in one basket I would suggest that you do a lot more reading about the subject.  Consider reading Warren Buffet's opinion about Gold.  He would apparently much rather put his money into investments with people who have creative new ideas and creative products (stocks).  That is where the long term growth always has been, as well as in Real Estate.  Gold is just a metal.  It sits there and does nothing.  It has no new ideas and produces no new products.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 25, 2011, 09:37:53 PM
Most prudent advisors suggest 5% to 10% max in PM (Gold and Silver) as hedge against catastrophe - Motley Fool follows the Buffet Model and looks for solid long term growth companies many with reliable dividends in boom and bust cycles... 3 best companies to buy and put away (Buffet Buy it and forget it method) for the next 100 years McDonald's, P&G and Coca-Cola... so great companies with Global Brands do well no matter what - US Global Multi-nationals are giant cash cows (Over $1.5 Trillion in CASH reserves rivalling the Chinese) selling to the masses across the globe and as they like to say have their profits "trapped" overseas.

Problem is USA corp taxes way too high (Corp Taxes Just gets past on to end consumers as a cost of doing business) and regulations changing so fast and costs to employ people so high that companies incentivised NOT to hire in the USA but hire overseas if at all possible - Euro sovereign debt a red herring 500 Million people will have to live and eat like the rest of us and eventually the Sunshine coasts in Greece Italy Spain and Portugal will have to actually produce for a living and not retire at 100% salary at 55!  No wonder RU ladies love the Med Sunshine lifestyle - espresso and gelato and sunbathing their lives away...

 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 26, 2011, 05:05:41 AM
3 best companies to buy and put away (Buffet Buy it and forget it method) for the next 100 years McDonald's, P&G and Coca-Cola...

My guess is that 20 years ago Buffet's list of three companies to buy and put away for 100 years would have been Kodak, General Motors and AT&T. 

That was one of the best posts in the thread and I particularly like and agree with the corp tax part. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on September 26, 2011, 05:21:59 AM

if you still think that Gold is your only option and you are putting all of your eggs in one basket I would suggest that you do a lot more reading about the subject.  Consider reading Warren Buffet's opinion about Gold.  He would apparently much rather put his money into investments with people who have creative new ideas and creative products (stocks).  That is where the long term growth always has been, as well as in Real Estate.  Gold is just a metal.  It sits there and does nothing.  It has no new ideas and produces no new products.

That is also a good post Anteros.  Being diversified with how you invest your money is always wise advice but I do think that peoples goals, life stages and tolerance for risk are factors that come into play.  If preservation of capital is the greatest goal then being diversified is the best plan.  If growth without concern for risk is the plan than specializing may be the better plan.

For decades real estate would have been considered the safest investment and one of the wisest investments but that opinion changed just a few years ago.  Things change.  I have a feeling people will look back at this era and kick themselves for not buying real estate now.  Gold has been great but there have been long peroids where you could have made nothing or even lost money.  Emerging market stocks have been great, well until this years big drop.  Stocks over the long haul have been the best investment for most but some people can lose their shirt.  The real bottom line of the best investment for most is diversification.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 26, 2011, 11:46:12 AM
Gold down almost $100 today.  Down from over $1800, yet the stock market is also down, Greece looks to declare bankruptcy and Italy is in fiscal chaos.  Where's all the money going if it's leaving the stock market and gold?  US treasuries in one destination and probably the main beneficiary of the money.   

Gold   1,642.50   -96.70   -5.56%

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Greece is really like Rhode Island declaring bankruptcy - "the sky is falling nonsense" a Non-Event excuse for Goldman and JP Morgan and BofA-Merrill Lynch to do a little margin call sweeping of the day traders and hedge fund managers who were getting a bit too aggressive on the long side of PM and junior mining stocks.  Even if the Euro vanishes (makes no sense really now that you can visit nearly 30 EU countries with the same currency and not pay a money changer tax each time you cross a border) and if they go back to Francs and or Reich Marks or whatever - US Multinationals are sitting on as much Cash offshore as Saudi Arabia or China and they do not have 1.3 billion mouths to feed... or the Iraq Shia militia waiting for the USA to get out before they start making life hell for the Saudi Sunnis.  Point is the only economic war we can eventually win is waiting out the Chinese on the continued debasement of the dollars value - sooner or later it will get to a point where the Chinese must decouple and let their Yuan-Renminbi float on the FX markets so they are not paying hyperinflated prices for their raw materials - right now the Yuan is 6.423 to the dollar - Yuan should probably be 1 to 1 with the USD and that has the Chinese petrified that they will lose their WalMart dumping ground trade surplus generator advantage.   

Once the Yuan floats you will then see the USA Feds incentivised to work towards long term monetary and fiscal stability - it is really just all out economic war with China and the USA Multi-Nationals when told to get in line by a pro business USA President will do what they are told to rebuild the USA or else be punished in so many different ways a CiC has at their disposal Putin and Medvedev style.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 26, 2011, 12:22:10 PM
Really great post Cufflinks and right on the money as usual!!  Not only is China petrified of losing their "Walmart dumping grounds" the fact is that it is becoming more expensive to produce goods in China at the same time that it is becoming less expensive to produce goods in the USA or much closer to the US.  All we need is a President to do away with the Dodd credit rules, relax government regs on business, and do away with the Obama "health care" plan.  All of those have caused enormous uncertainty in the business world.  Once we have an aggressive Republican President in place, this country can get back to making things and be on it's way to paying off the massive debt and being great once again.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 26, 2011, 12:23:30 PM
3 best companies to buy and put away (Buffet Buy it and forget it method) for the next 100 years McDonald's, P&G and Coca-Cola...

My guess is that 20 years ago Buffet's list of three companies to buy and put away for 100 years would have been Kodak, General Motors and AT&T. 

That was one of the best posts in the thread and I particularly like and agree with the corp tax part.

My three would be Exxon, Chubb and Microsoft.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 26, 2011, 05:28:07 PM
Peter Schiff Email Alert:

State of the Gold Market - Sept. 26, 2011:

Friends,
This past week has been a rout for precious metals. From last Monday to today, gold has dropped 10.9% and silver dropped 30.4% (per the London fix). For gold, from $1794 to $1598, and for silver, from $40.46 to $28.16.

The metals have been on a tear for the past few years. Because of this, investors and speculators that do not understand the fundamentals appear to have joined the bull run, and then quickly departed at the first sign of trouble. Good riddance to them, I say. While sharp declines do test the mettle of some value investors, I believe this leaner market presents a great buying opportunity.
The situation in Europe continues to deteriorate daily. Greece is in default and larger EU members look sure to follow. Meanwhile, gridlock is the password in Washington. QE III is coming, and with it, the dollar is headed for another big decline in purchasing power. The Swiss National Bank just instituted a peg to curb inflows of global investors seeking a safe haven – costing franc holders 25% of their position in the course of a week.

To me, this situation screams, "buy gold!" But, unfortunately, herd-like investors are being corralled into the US dollar. However, as with any move that defies reason and economic law, this will not last.

CLICK HERE to watch a special video I've prepared for you with my full assessment of the state of the gold market now, and where I think it's going next.

http://www.europacmetals.com/commentaries/newsid416/101/state-of-the-gold-market.aspx

But my message today is for you to consider taking advantage of this drop in metals prices. Most individual investors buy at the wrong time... on the way up, not on the way down. I firmly believe that gold and silver prices are going much higher.

If you have been waiting for the right time to add to your account, or make your initial precious metals purchase, it is now.

Our phones were ringing off the hook until closing time on Friday. It was one of the busiest weeks we have had since I launched Euro Pacific Precious Metals. My longtime clients don't follow the herd. They buy when prices are low and value is high. I hope you will take their example.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 27, 2011, 09:49:09 PM
Is he a fraud or was he just giving an honest assessment of the economic situation in Europe.  Alessio Rastani is an independent trader in London, UK.  According to Alessio by this time next year the EU will be in far worse financial trouble than it is now. His reasons for this are that traders like himself don't really care about the economy, what they care about is making money.  Also countries don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world. 

Are his statements to the BBC his real honest opinion of the economy or is he a member of the Yes Men a loose-knit group of merry pranksters and imposters that attempt to manipulate the media with the goal of exposing the dubious conduct of big corporations.

The video is in the second link.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/who-is-alessio-rastani-20110928-1kw8a.html

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/cutline/bbc-victim-hoax-no-yes-men-154724196.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on September 27, 2011, 10:51:20 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 28, 2011, 07:09:41 PM
Not good:

http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/08/22/government-takes-away-gold-and-our-rights/

http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/09/28/european-union-restrictions-on-gold-sales/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 29, 2011, 11:04:26 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

As much as JC gives me a hard time, i really shouldnt defend him; but he's still right overall on gold.

while gold has fallen, it is just really consolidating and will eventually be over $2000. the world has resolved nothing and has taken the US FED monetary policies worldwide. gold will continue to be a good investment until that changes. i'm guessing at least another year. maybe if those darn tea partiers take over, it'll change; but i'm quite sure they wont do anything until they have to just like any other politician.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on September 30, 2011, 12:33:35 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Swiss immigration caught up with him.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on October 01, 2011, 02:12:07 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Swiss immigration caught up with him.  :laugh:

Or he is playing with a new toy :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 01, 2011, 10:38:49 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

As much as JC gives me a hard time, i really shouldnt defend him; but he's still right overall on gold.

while gold has fallen, it is just really consolidating and will eventually be over $2000. the world has resolved nothing and has taken the US FED monetary policies worldwide. gold will continue to be a good investment until that changes. i'm guessing at least another year. maybe if those darn tea partiers take over, it'll change; but i'm quite sure they wont do anything until they have to just like any other politician.

JC may be right on gold but if he is really shorting the US dollar and the world economy falters gold may go up but for certain the value of the US dollar will climb.  It is still the world reserve currency and a shelter in times of economic turmoil.  Shorting the US dollar is a bad idea when the world economy is bad.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on October 01, 2011, 11:01:06 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

As much as JC gives me a hard time, i really shouldnt defend him; but he's still right overall on gold.

while gold has fallen, it is just really consolidating and will eventually be over $2000. the world has resolved nothing and has taken the US FED monetary policies worldwide. gold will continue to be a good investment until that changes. i'm guessing at least another year. maybe if those darn tea partiers take over, it'll change; but i'm quite sure they wont do anything until they have to just like any other politician.

JC may be right on gold but if he is really shorting the US dollar and the world economy falters gold may go up but for certain the value of the US dollar will climb.  It is still the world reserve currency and a shelter in times of economic turmoil.  Shorting the US dollar is a bad idea when the world economy is bad.

That is exactly what I was thinking.  With the Euro in turmoil and with the prospect of a Republican President looming large, I would not be shorting the US dollar. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on October 01, 2011, 11:14:32 AM

JC may be right on gold but if he is really shorting the US dollar and the world economy falters gold may go up but for certain the value of the US dollar will climb.  It is still the world reserve currency and a shelter in times of economic turmoil.  Shorting the US dollar is a bad idea when the world economy is bad.

I have to agree.  The dollar may not seem as secure as it was way back but the Euro and others are in worse shape.  A number of experts believe it is likely the dollar will be on even par with the Euro a year from now.  Some disagree but most do belive the dollar will gain value vs the Euro. 

I am not so sure he is right on gold either but my beliefs and the price of gold have not had much similarity so my level of confidence is not as strong about this. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on October 01, 2011, 01:32:04 PM
just fyi on gold,

the advisors that i trust most(streettalklive.com-free newsletter if you guys want to check them out) took a 2 1/2% position in gold friday. they will go to a full position again if it drops near 1400. they sold all positions at 1900 betting that it was a parabolic move. you goldbugs can do with that what you will but looks like they think its nearing the bottom of the correction.

again, i'm not buying gold as i think i can make as much shorting the market over the next year as i would buying gold. ironically, i feel safer betting more $$$ the whole market than betting the amount of $$$ in gold i would have to buy to make any real money on gold. IMO, gold is still like buying one stock; it can drop 5 or 10% in a day and easily 20% in a month.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 02, 2011, 05:57:48 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Swiss immigration caught up with him.  :laugh:

Or he is playing with a new toy :laugh:

As much as possible,!!!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 02, 2011, 07:58:22 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Swiss immigration caught up with him.  :laugh:

Or he is playing with a new toy :laugh:

As much as possible,!!!

Run JC run.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 05, 2011, 09:44:55 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 05, 2011, 08:12:25 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

More burger boy economics JC? Short the US dollar starting in 2012 or 2013?  This problem with the world economy, whether it is an economic downturn, recession or depression won't be over in 2012 or even 2013.  Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves.  This means that the US dollar is going to be a haven currency and will maintain its status as the world's reserve currency for at least the next 3 years. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 05, 2011, 09:16:29 PM
Peter Schiff's newest free report - 5 best currencies to diversify out of the Dollar and Euro

http://www.europac.net/sites/default/files/special_reports/Five-Favorite-Currencies-Special-Report.pdf

OZ$

Singapore

Can$

Norwegian Kroner

China Yuan/Renminbi as a "wildcard"

All of which have a fiat currency risk at the whims of the governments at any time so only real store of value Silver Gold and Platinum - sells Perth Gold Certificates on his new metals site...

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on October 06, 2011, 12:07:32 AM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

More burger boy economics JC? Short the US dollar starting in 2012 or 2013?  This problem with the world economy, whether it is an economic downturn, recession or depression won't be over in 2012 or even 2013.  Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves.  This means that the US dollar is going to be a haven currency and will maintain its status as the world's reserve currency for at least the next 3 years.

And it would be especially not wise to short the dollar in 2013 considering that there is a very high likelyhood that we will have a pro business Republican as President.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 07, 2011, 04:27:27 PM
The Currencies to Trade if the U.S. Launches Another Trade War With China
http://sovereign-investor.com/2011/10/06/the-currencies-to-trade-if-the-u-s-launches-another-trade-war-with-china/

Interesting Perspective on a possible China USA currency driven trade war:

Trading War Would Be Bad for Economy, but Great for Traders

It’s too early to tell if politicians will be dumb enough to implement that bill, and ignite a trading war with China. But this event is definitely worth monitoring.

If the U.S. starts to impose tariffs on Chinese imported goods, China will retaliate. Things will escalate into a trading war, hurting the global economy, much like what happened in 1930.

While this would be bad news for economies, it would be good news for currency traders, especially those who focus on emerging market currencies.

A trading war would add to the long list of problems the global economy is facing. When any crisis like this hits the markets, currency traders tend to dump emerging market currencies and rush for the “safe haven” dollar.

Should this bill pass, watch for the dollar to rally against emerging market currencies.  These smaller exotic currencies would get crushed in this type of trading environment.

For the sake of the global economy, I hope politicians here in the U.S. do the right thing and reject that bill. But if they approve it, I will be ready to profit from it by shorting emerging market currencies against the dollar.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 09, 2011, 03:19:05 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

More burger boy economics JC? Short the US dollar starting in 2012 or 2013?  This problem with the world economy, whether it is an economic downturn, recession or depression won't be over in 2012 or even 2013.  Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves.  This means that the US dollar is going to be a haven currency and will maintain its status as the world's reserve currency for at least the next 3 years.

Chico,.., how many times have I said to stop yammering about your imaginary friend who works at McD's

and your daydreaming caused you to miss a spot on my masserati , please re-clean or no apple sauce for grandpa!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 09, 2011, 03:20:02 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

More burger boy economics JC? Short the US dollar starting in 2012 or 2013?  This problem with the world economy, whether it is an economic downturn, recession or depression won't be over in 2012 or even 2013.  Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves.  This means that the US dollar is going to be a haven currency and will maintain its status as the world's reserve currency for at least the next 3 years.

And it would be especially not wise to short the dollar in 2013 considering that there is a very high likelyhood that we will have a pro business Republican as President.

Funny how WC makes up stuff and Atta reacts to it like it was fact.

LOL
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: JeanClaude on October 09, 2011, 04:11:50 PM
Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves. 

 whatever happens after 2015, uptill then the USA will be in a pile of shit.

@Atta
Quote
And it would be especially not wise to short the dollar in 2013
A agree that with you that wc's advice is a bit dumb

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on October 12, 2011, 04:00:22 PM
Where is JeanClaude??  He certainly is not bragging about all of his holdings in Gold right now!!  And if he was shorting the US dollar as much as he claimed, oh well...

Nice lil fantasy your having

I was Shorting  EUR/CHF (and cashed out when both were on par)

My advice is to short the USD long term against stronger currencies (which doesnt inlcude the CHF as of recent)

I didnt say I was shorting the USD, but I would still do it long term Put calls in (2012/2013)

More burger boy economics JC? Short the US dollar starting in 2012 or 2013?  This problem with the world economy, whether it is an economic downturn, recession or depression won't be over in 2012 or even 2013.  Most economists are saying it will be at least 2015 before the world economy improves.  This means that the US dollar is going to be a haven currency and will maintain its status as the world's reserve currency for at least the next 3 years.

Chico,.., how many times have I said to stop yammering about your imaginary friend who works at McD's

and your daydreaming caused you to miss a spot on my masserati , please re-clean or no apple sauce for grandpa!

On the run from Swiss immigration JC? Nice of you to check in from a cyber cafe.  However you should probably save your money.  If you get caught and sent back to Algeria.  Or is it Chad or Morocco?  No matter, save your money and when you're sent back home you'll be able to set yourself up in a nice house.  Then you can start planning your next trip to Europe. 

I think you should try to sneak into the UK.  I understand once you're in the UK, even illegally, you're in for life and can quickly qualify for the UK welfare system.  Perhaps visit Manny, Vinny and Moby when there's a UK get together.   :BEER: Maybe one of the wives knows a nice legal Russian woman living in the UK.  Great way to go legal.   :)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on November 12, 2011, 02:21:02 AM
Curious with gold at 1788 or so who is happy and who is not smiling when they think about this?

Curious, I believe it was Cufflinks or Westcoast posted some stocks to invest in that provide income via dividends. What does that list look like know, I wonder?

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 13, 2011, 02:30:42 PM
Another way to really fight inflation:


Subject: Warren Buffett interview with CNBC

Warren Buffett, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the best
quotes about the debt ceiling:

"I could end the deficit in 5 minutes", he told CNBC. "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election."

The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3 months and 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971 before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to become the law of the land all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

Congressional Reform Act of 20111:
1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they are out of office.

2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security. All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.


4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

5. Congress  and loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen. Congressmen made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then it will only take three days for most people (in the U.S.) to receive the message. Maybe it is time.

THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!!!!!

If you agree with the above, pass it on. If not, just delete. You are one of my 20+..

If you agree, please pass it on and share with friends.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 13, 2011, 03:00:53 PM
Another way to really fight inflation:


Subject: Warren Buffett interview with CNBC

Warren Buffett, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the best
quotes about the debt ceiling:

"I could end the deficit in 5 minutes", he told CNBC. "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election."

The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3 months and 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971 before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to become the law of the land all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

Congressional Reform Act of 20111:
1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they are out of office.

2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security. All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.


4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.

5. Congress  and loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen. Congressmen made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.

If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then it will only take three days for most people (in the U.S.) to receive the message. Maybe it is time.

THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!!!!!

If you agree with the above, pass it on. If not, just delete. You are one of my 20+..

If you agree, please pass it on and share with friends.

Interesting article Cuffy, of course there is a problem, politicians vote in Congress not the American public.  Congress might pay lip service to the ideas but would certainly never vote in favour of any of these ideas because they would reduce the power of Congress and worse reduce their pay and benefits. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 13, 2011, 03:54:18 PM
Well 6o Minutes news show had a show tonight about how Congress approval ratings are the lowest ever and 60 Minutes dug up even more "issues" - they now have the Right T.E.A. folks and the Left Occupy Wall St folks equally pissed off and even thought the lefties and righties vehemently disagree there is a huge Venn Diagram overlap of common ground and should they both vote their self interests versus knee jerk demagogue inspired wedge issues the Congress and Senate are in for a huge problem - USA is suffering - one of the fastest growing web sites is pawngo like bongo where people send in  pictures of their stuff discreetly (No sleazy pawn shops location in dodgy areas) and are given a quote (Typically High End merchandise, gold, watches and jewelry - large diamonds etc) and if they like the price they are paid via bank wire (Typically $15.00) withing 3 days.  These are the upper middle class using this service - eBay really sucks on high end stuff and is trying to become more like Amazon... 

Independents like me the largest single voting block and most indies not inclined to vote for hopey changey rhetoric this time around like many did last time.

Most politicians inclined to kick the can down the road to protect their turf and salary and benefits continuation plans - we are coming to the point the "can" is likely to grow too big and they will break their toes on it and have to deal with reality for a change.

Not sure if that will be 2012 - most likely will take another economic bubble to burst - Peter Schiff keeps saying that bubble is the Muni Bonds market now that many State, County, City and local governments floundering in Pensions, Social Security, medicare, medicaid debts...  Birmingham, Alabama just decided to file bankruptcy over a flopped $5 Billion sewer project. 

Think about how many other municipalities desperately need to upgrade their ancient underground infrastructures and when the debts mount and many more defaults or public muni bankruptcies occur - the cost to borrow for even tax free Muni Funds will skyrocket - so not sure if that is the next bubble or perhaps Fannie-Freddie redux but there is sure to be another Fed bubble crisis and worse than Sept 2008 when the last bubble finally burst and March 2009 when Oil and Commodities and the Dow all tanked...  next round could be even worse because Obama added to the massive entitlements deficits with Obamacare rather than reduce them - USA healthcare in need of drastic overhaul - so 2012 will be closely followed - huge turnouts, close margins and likely to go real negative really quickly now that Nov 4 2012 less than a year away.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: 2tallbill on November 13, 2011, 04:02:17 PM
Well 6o Minutes news show had a show tonight about how Congress approval ratings are the lowest ever and 60 Minutes dug up even more "issues" - they now have the Right T.E.A. folks and the Left Occupy Wall St folks equally pissed off and even thought the lefties and righties vehemently disagree there is a huge Venn Diagram overlap of common ground and should they both vote their self interests versus knee jerk demagogue inspired wedge issues the Congress and Senate are in for a huge problem

Congress insiders: Above the law?


(CBS News)  Martha Stewart went to jail for it. Hedge fund honcho Raj Rajaratnam was fined $92 million and will go to jail for years for it. But members of Congress can do the same thing -use non-public information to make stock trades -- and there's no law against it. Steve Kroft reports on how America's lawmakers can legally make tidy profits on information only they know, simply because they won't pass a law against themselves. The report will be broadcast on Sunday, Nov. 13 at 7 p.m. ET/PT.
Among the revelations in Kroft's report:

* Members of Congress have bought stock in companies while laws that could affect those companies were being debated in the House or Senate.

* At least one representative made significant stock purchases the day after he and other members of Congress attended a secret meeting in September 2008, where the Fed chair and the treasury secretary informed them of the imminent global economic meltdown. The meeting was so confidential that cell phones and other digital devices were confiscated before it began.

If senators and representatives are using non-public information to win in the market, it's all legal says Peter Schweizer, who works for the Hoover Institute, a conservative think tank. He has been examining these issues for some time and has written about them in a book, "Throw them All Out." "[Insider trading laws] apply to corporate executives, to Americans...If you are a member of Congress, those laws are deemed not to apply," he tells Kroft. "It's really the way the rules have been defined...[lawmakers]have conveniently written them in such a way as they don't apply to themselves," says Schweizer.

Efforts to make such insider trading off limits to Washington's lawmakers have never been able to get traction.

Former Rep. Brian Baird says he spent half of his 12 years in Congress trying to get co-sponsors for a bill that would ban insider trading in Congress and also set some rules up to govern conflicts of interest. In 2004, he and Rep. Louise Slaughter introduced the "Stock Act" to stop the insider trading. How far did they get? "We didn't get anywhere. Just flat died," he tells Kroft. He managed to get just six co-sponsors from a membership of over 400 representatives. "It doesn't sound like a lot," says Kroft. "It's not Steve. You could have Cherry Pie Week and get 100 co-sponsors," says Baird.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57323221/congress-insiders-above-the-law/?tag=nl.e882
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 13, 2011, 04:10:20 PM
Classic do as we say (And tax YOU) not as we do!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: RG on November 13, 2011, 05:21:08 PM
Another way to really fight inflation:

Subject: Warren Buffett interview with CNBC

Warren Buffett, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the best
quotes about the debt ceiling:

"I could end the deficit in 5 minutes", he told CNBC. "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election."

Great in theory, except I'd expect it to make for some major cooking of books.

This next piece is interesting, was this part of the Buffet interview or disconnected entirely? (links help sometimes :) )

Quote from: unknown
The 26th amendment (granting the right to vote for 18 year-olds) took only 3 months and 8 days to be ratified! Why? Simple! The people demanded it. That was in 1971 before computers, e-mail, cell phones, etc.

Of the 27 amendments to the Constitution, seven (7) took 1 year or less to become the law of the land all because of public pressure.

Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this email to a minimum of twenty people on their address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.

In three days, most people in The United States of America will have the message. This is one idea that really should be passed around.

Congressional Reform Act of 20111:
1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they are out of office.
Amen.  Possibly difficult to implement, but it's the right thought.

Quote
2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security. All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.
I can't stress how completely I support this one.  I'd also be OK with a 401k, with contributions tied to the average of contributions the American people are getting with respect to any "matching funds" or not. 

Medical insurance is still missing here, though - tie government medical to the average of the American people.  They won't remain "disconnected" for too long when they're paying hundreds per month then more at virtually any doctor visit.

Quote
4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.
It's a good starting point, but seems tied to the wrong index with CPI. 

Quote
5. Congress  and loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.
Oops, it was here, agree 100%.

Quote
6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen are void effective 1/1/12. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen. Congressmen made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.

All of the above would be a great starting point, even if I'd expect point 1 to be a major hurdle.  As it is, don't they need 20+ years in before they can draw retirement?  Seeing 2-7 implemented as law would be a huge step forward.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 13, 2011, 07:59:14 PM
Sorry about the link - a consulting engineer at Cisco sent me the article and no link...

2012 will be a very interesting year indeed!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 15, 2011, 03:41:48 PM
The latest from the Peter Schiff EuroPac newsletter - way beyond "chicken-little the sky is falling" - very sobering perspective:

The Beginning of the End of Fiat Money
By:
John Browne
Thursday, November 10, 2011

Last week, the G-20 meetings did not produce an expanded bailout fund for the eurozone. While this may bode well for the long-term solvency of the member-states (moral hazard and all), it has also triggered a market reaction that I expect to help destabilize the common currency. Yesterday's market moves suggested that this development is good for the dollar and bad for gold. Allow me to step back from the stampeding herd to evaluate whether they are, in fact, moving in the right direction.

The argument for the dollar and against gold is simplistic, and I will evaluate it against the four-stage collapse I see ahead for the Western currencies.

Arguing that gold is a hedge only against inflation, and taking current inflation figures at face value, mainstream analysts have concluded that gold is grossly overvalued – that it may, in fact, be the latest asset bubble to arise. However, these analysts fail to account for why gold is a hedge against inflation: it is ultimately an insurance policy against runaway currency collapse. In other words, it's intended as a longer-term, wealth-preserving purchase. Yes, some pit traders may be trying to make a quick buck shorting gold and going long on dollars, but for individual investors, following suit would leave them vulnerable to what may prove to be ahead. That is, a phased destabilization of the euro, leading to a possible collapse of the US dollar. In such circumstances, even today’s volatile prices for gold and silver would look attractive.

Phase One of the threatened catastrophe is sovereign debt crisis, which is effectively camouflaging a currency crisis. The Greek default is significant as the first crack in the dam. But Greece is a relatively small problem. The bigger threat is Italy, with its $2.4 trillion of debt and a 10-year bond yield having just surpassed the critical 7 percent level. This is the ruinous milestone at which the cost of new debt money surpasses the economic growth rate plus inflation. Italy faces massive debt refunding, falling buyer interest, and no hope of a bailout. If Italy were to default, it could threaten rapid contagion to Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and other larger eurozone countries, including perhaps France. In such an event, most international banks and institutional investors, including those in the US, could suffer severe, possibly total, losses on their holding of certain sovereign bonds. MFGlobal is but one speculative example of a looming secular trend. Worse still, the writers of credit default swap (CDS) derivatives, including many German Landesbanks (state-level banks) and major US banks, could suffer crippling losses.

This would lead to Phase Two of the collapse: a renewed and far larger banking crisis. This, in turn, could bring stock markets tumbling and threaten major institutional investors, including politically sensitive pension and insurance companies. In addition, banks would become extremely wary of lending to each other. Likely, the interbank market would freeze, but far more severely than in 2008. It could result in curtailed lending and even the recall of short-term corporate funding and call-loans. This could cause a dramatic spike in US bank failures. Unwary depositors who have failed to watch their banks closely could find their insured funds frozen, perhaps for months, as the FDIC reorganizes the problem banks – and perhaps even waits for its own bailout. This would add further downward pressure to economic growth.

Meanwhile, the cascading banking crisis would likely push Europe into a severe recession, even a depression. As the EU accounts for some 22 percent of world trade, a European depression would no doubt drag down the US even further. In response, the price of precious metals may face severe selling pressure as liquidity becomes paramount.

This would present an opportunity for long-term gold and silver investors.

Phase Three would be a restructuring or dissolution of the euro and possibly a stampede into the US dollar, sending its price and US Treasuries temporarily upwards. With a far stronger dollar, the price of most commodities, including precious metals, may fall temporarily in dollar terms. We are seeing a preview of this dynamic with today's news on Italy.

However, to reallocate one's portfolio in reaction to such a move could put an investor in jeopardy. That is because Phase Four, the most alarming, would be investors’ realization that the US dollar lies at the root of the international currency collapse and is itself vulnerable. Likely, this panic flight from the dollar would develop suddenly, and perhaps in undreamed of volumes. Doubtless, the speed and size of a stampede out of paper currencies and into precious metals will take many investors by surprise – just as the Credit Crunch in 2008 did. As the realization of currency catastrophe spreads, the price of silver may start to rise faster than even gold.

There's an old saying that “the higher you fly, the harder you fall.” The US government is, by any measure, the luckiest government in centuries. It has risen to unforeseen heights of monetary excess – and has been rewarded for doing so. But it looks like lower flying planes are starting to stall out, and one can only imagine – from this height – how fast and how far the US may fall.

My humble advice is not to try to time it, but rather to use your golden parachute before it's too late.

John Browne is a consultant to Euro Pacific Capital.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: RG on November 15, 2011, 07:17:54 PM
There's an old saying that “the higher you fly, the harder you fall.” The US government is, by any measure, the luckiest government in centuries. It has risen to unforeseen heights of monetary excess – and has been rewarded for doing so. But it looks like lower flying planes are starting to stall out, and one can only imagine – from this height – how fast and how far the US may fall.

My humble advice is not to try to time it, but rather to use your golden parachute before it's too late.

John Browne is a consultant to Euro Pacific Capital.

Sorry, he went back and forth on gold it seems, then to silver - what was his end recommendation?

I agree entirely about the "luck" of the US government/USD - how well do you think it would have fared if it were not the reserve currency?  Lots of dangerous games, if that status is lost due to too much insanity even for banksters/IMF/etc., it's going to get even worse, I guess this maps to "phase 4" above.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 19, 2011, 04:30:43 PM
Well the EuroPac folks led by Peter Schiff have been hard money advocates for a long time primarily gold and gold bullion - a favorite option of their's for their clients is OZ Perth Gold certificates - benefit both in Gold and OZ Bucks to US bucks currency exchange when and if you have to convert to cash of some for or another.

To look at both sides of the coin they just had a major Gold and Silver correction and a lot of their "sky is falling and the USA is the next Zimbabwe rhetoric" has not happened and many of their investors saw a 20% to 30% Correction and now they have to create an even larger "Boogey man is coming" to keep investors buying PMs - so - their Phase 1, 2, 3, 4 OMG approach - it covers their asses nicely with the SEC and regulators so if you keep buying PM physical metals or hard money and we have the temporary collapse of Italy and the Euro and a rush to dollars and a selloff of PMs then it creates another buy on the dip opportunity before the Phase 4 End of the World Scenario.

I am a big fan of Peter Schiff but in this case I believe his boy Browne is blatantly trying to cover both cheeks of their collective precious metals brokerages arse to keep selling their investments in PMs - they need plausible ultimate doomsday scenario. 

This is why I also read the motley fool because gold at the end of the day is an inflation insurance policy whereas to enjoy true incremental wealth someone has to create a product or a service and sell it into real market demand nationally and worldwide.  With most of the USA's Fortune 1,000 companies most now derive over 51% of their revenue from international markets and some nearly 70% of their profits.  Chevy and GM in China is a good example - the average GM car in China sells for about $30K USD and the Chinese are buying them up and saving GM in the process - GM's largest growth market for sales and more importantly Profits is China.

So the motley fool position is that Markets go up and down and economies expand and sometimes shrink - but Good companies with a realistic Global perspective that diversify corporate risk by serving customers in many countries - and that are well managed and provide steady realistic dividends as the only real true measure of a companies management performance over time - that these companies will always do well over the long haul no matter what happens to the EURO, Drachma, Lira or Dollar or even Rubles in the short run.  So as financial advisors have long advised never keep more than 5% to 10% of your assets in PM hard money and maintain a diversified and balanced portfolio including the best companies in their Dividend and Growth research - that said Motley fool periodically features trips to growth countries and publishes info about companies growing and paying dividends across Asia that are great long term investments there and news flash - few are publicly traded on the US exchanges and you have to buy them on the Asian exchanges which is now easier than ever with international trading accounts available on almost any stock market worldwide.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on November 30, 2011, 02:11:02 AM
The financial news in the US and around the world just doesn't seem to be getting any better.  Despite the best Black Friday sales figures ever the US economy is suffering.  All major American banks and many of the world's largest banks just had their credit worthiness downgraded by S&P.

http://news.yahoo.com/p-downgrades-top-us-banks-credit-ratings-222321310.html

Quote
S&P downgrades top US banks' credit ratings
AP By EILEEN AJ CONNELLY  AP – 5 hrs ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has lowered its credit ratings for many of the world's largest financial institutions, including the biggest banks in the U.S.

Bank of America Corp. and its main subsidiaries are among the institutions whose ratings fell at least one notch Tuesday, along with Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co.

S&P said the changes in 37 financial companies' ratings reflect the firm's new criteria for banks, and they incorporate shifts in the industry and the role of governments and central banks worldwide. The agency did not release its evaluation of each company but said it plans to discuss the changes during a conference call early Wednesday.

Bank of America's issuer credit rating was cut to "A-" from "A," as were its Countrywide Financial Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. units, along with a series of related subsidiaries

Ratings downgrades are never seen as positive, but this round may be particularly damaging for Bank of America.

Concern already was growing Tuesday about whether B of A has enough capital to withstand another downturn in the U.S. economy or further trouble in Europe, and the bank's stock fell to a two-year low before the ratings announcement.

The Charlotte, N.C.-based bank said in a recent regulatory filing that downgrades from S&P or Fitch Ratings, which also is reevaluating its ratings, "could likely have a material adverse effect on our liquidity" and cut off its access to credit markets.

It typically costs companies more to borrow when their credit ratings are cut, the same way a decline in a person's credit scores drives up the interest rates that banks and credit cards will offer him.

Downgrades could hurt parts of the bank's businesses where creditworthiness is critical, Bank of America said in a filing Nov. 3 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

A downgrade also could trigger provisions in derivative contracts that require B of A to put up more collateral, and it could terminate the contracts, resulting in losses and hurting the bank's liquidity. The bank posted a $6.2 billion profit for the third quarter, mostly the result of accounting gains and the sale of a stake in a Chinese bank, but it was still moving toward a loss for the year as of Sept. 30.

Bank of America shares fell 17 cents, or 3.2 percent, to close Tuesday at $5.08 and lost another penny after hours.

S&P cut its rating on Citigroup Inc.'s credit to "A-" from "A''; a series of its subsidiaries also saw changes. Citigroup shares closed up 19 cents, at $25.24, and lost 14 cents aftermarket.

Goldman Sachs also was cut to "A-" from "A," which triggered some downgrades for subsidiaries. The investment bank's shares closed regular trading down $1.62, at $88.81, and lost another 12 cents in late trading.

JPMorgan Chase's rating also dropped to "A'' from "A+," and its Chase Bank unit was downgraded to "A+" from "AA-" and other subsidiaries ratings also changed. JPMorgan Chase took the place of Bank of America as the nation's largest bank in recent months.

The bank's stock lost 6 cents aftermarket after closing the regular session down 60 cents, or 2 percent, at $28.56.

Morgan Stanley's rating slipped to "A-" from "A'' and several of its units also got cut one notch. Shares slipped 9 cents in late trading from their close down 49 cents, or 3.6 percent, at $13.31.

Wells Fargo fell to "A+" from "AA-" which likewise triggered downgrades for several subsidiaries. Shares closed down 7 cents at $24.08, then lost 18 cents aftermarket.

In addition, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the sixth biggest bank in the U.S., was cut to "A+" from "AA-," and some units were downgraded. Bank of New York Mellon is a custodian bank, which collects dividends on stocks and holds cash deposits, among other things, on behalf of its customers, which are mainly large pension funds and money market funds. The stock closed down a penny at $18.08, then lost 8 cents in late trading.

Top U.K. downgrades include Barclays PLC, HSBC Holdings PLC, Lloyds Banking Group PLC and The Royal Bank of Scotland.

Ratings for several big European banks, including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, ING Groep N.V. and Societe Generale were unchanged, but in some cases they were given a "negative" outlook.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on November 30, 2011, 09:06:24 AM

Looks like the world did 2 things to keep economies going:

The new european bailout and far east cutting rates.

Europe bailout wont be able to cover spain and italy:
"The finance ministers, who were meeting ahead of a full Ecofin summit today, acknowledged the €440bn (£376bn) fund would not win support to leverage it up to €1 trillion. Its capacity would be between €500bn and €700bn instead – a total that is unlikely to be big enough to rescue Spain and Italy"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/german-finance-minister-says-big.html



and rate cut:
China Cuts Bank Reserve Ratios by .5 Percentage Points; Central Banks Cut Rates on Dollar Swap Lines; German 1-Year Bond Yield Negative First Time Ever; Futures Soar

"Also bear in mind that on September 15, there was coordinated swap-line action that did nothing"
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/china-cuts-bank-reserve-ratios-by-5.html

i'm still expecting a 2012 recession and looking to short the markt next year, sitting mostly on the sidelines still from june.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on November 30, 2011, 09:45:34 AM
Personally I think your crystal ball will turn out to be a little murky.  My guess is that a year from now you will hear little about financial problems in Europe, the stock market will be 10% or better ahead of where it is now, unemployment in the USA will be about 7.5-8%, the GDP will be growing a bit faster than now and gold will be less than $ 1500.00. 

But then again, who am I to have any claim to knowing anything.  It was me who guessed that the gold prices would drop before they climed to over $ 1900.00 for a while. 

We only have to wait a year to see which of us is right.   I just went from a fair amount of cash on the sidelines to fully invested yesterday morning.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on November 30, 2011, 03:41:04 PM

But then again, who am I to have any claim to knowing anything.  It was me who guessed that the gold prices would drop before they climed to over $ 1900.00 for a while. 

We only have to wait a year to see which of us is right.   I just went from a fair amount of cash on the sidelines to fully invested yesterday morning.

My guess backed by a bet gold over $2000 (for a while) and the Euro to the dollar € 1,= is $ 1,24

We all shall see.

And where is JC?

AvHdB
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on November 30, 2011, 03:48:49 PM
A long time ago I asked if gold would go to $2,000 or $1,000 first.  After more than 6 months, we still do not know.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 30, 2011, 10:06:36 PM
Keep in Mind that China's 8%GDP growth is built upon the backs of the EU and USA and if they do not recycle some of their $4 Trillion in trade surpluses they will be shooting themselves in the foot - The banks are in a panic because they incentivized the bubble and extended it to great profits with CDSwaps and CDOs but now the social saftey nets and post WWII Public Pensions and rich retirement benefits based upon a booming European and USA manufacturing base has dried up - the 13 to 1 manufacturing multiplier effect is gonzo and people can only sell each other just so many services with very low supply chain multiplier effect -  whats there to supply with services?   

We have a historic artificial economy today based upon cradle to grave debt where you borrow for everything you need but eventually the bill comes due and that time has hit for both EU and USA...

A safe long term and sustainable economy is based upon making things other people need that offer a quality that lasts - and the savings that result from the profits inherit in making such things of value - versus the cheap plastic junk designed for a few uses and thrown away - I have a gut feeling that there could be another Sept 2008 surprise before the Nov 2012 elections and it could have a profound effect on who gets elected - however the Too big to fail Money Center banks still have a stranglehold on the Global economy and they do not allow anything in our lives to happen without loans and debts spurred on by a fractional reserve system that guarantees bubbles and busts. 

The EU and USA debt is already unmanageable if rational people were to discuss it rationally and it will take real crisis to force the really tough decisions regarding the third rail of politics issues like Pension reform, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and PC insanity that allow 51% of Americans to pay no taxes and 47 Million Americans to draw food stamps, the tipping point of no return may have already occurred and a US debt default may be an inevitability - I remember during President Reagans tenure that a $50 Billion deficit being a huge number and political liability for Jimmy Carter and now under Obama we have $1.3 Trillion annual deficit - more spent than we take in with a seeming unending appetite for taxes - financial suicide and completely unsustainable and if USA defaults we will all go back to a economy where we all have to produce and can our own foods again and save rather than borrow borrow borrow and spend spend spend on unnecessary electronics obsolete 2 years from now and endless plastic junk from China - does anyone really need a 6 ft diagonal big screen flat panel tv when a 27" is fine for HDTV viewing - was not too long ago a 17 inch CRT was a big deal.

Will be a very interesting time between now and Nov 2012 - I expect at least one massive crisis to roil the markets no matter how hard the Central Bankers try to put off the inevitable until after the next elections.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on November 30, 2011, 10:16:21 PM
Cuffy,
Thanks for the non technical post that us non-economists can understand.  My gut has been in agreement with everything you stated.  One question, what is the scenerio that plays out for the US if we finally admit we are broke and default on all the debt?

Some of us are hunkering down for a depression just in case, but don't know if that would be the natural outcome or not.  It is pretty clear that we could never pay the debt we have accumulated and that band-aids can't last forever.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on November 30, 2011, 11:32:14 PM
Well Wall Street would start to feel the same pain Main Street has been in for the past 3 years.  Argentina and Iceland defaulted and they seem to have all gotten back to normal with Uruguay and Chile reportedly having some of the best governments (trusted well managed and debt resistant if not major debt free) and quality of life in the entire hemisphere along with Canada.  Brazil is booming and has no major military to speak of.  Many US oilfield workers now going to Brazil!

Bottom line is people would be forced back into a very frugal way of life until a new wave of techno innovation and realistic bipartisan cooperation (impossible in the heat of the moments reelectioneering) to adopt realistic measures - for instance it is beyond my comprehension how someone can think it is a good idea to run up $80K in government subsidized student loans (debts which can NOT be erased in bankruptcy - a slick banking and education lobby move) when they study majors like Theology and Dance - contrasted with a dancer like Puff Daddy or Lady Ga Ga can amass a $100M net worth after high USA taxes promoting hip hop and hop hip lifestyles, music and clothing with no formal college educations.

Point is technology is now at the point where every lecture can be YouTubed or Vimeoed for posterity with immediate PDF lecture notes and transcripts and any child with reasonable comprehension can now learn at the collegiate level for free online from home - the days of $600 per credit Community College courses and $250K ivy league educations (A Dentist friend in Boston accumulated $250K in loans and interest to get their DMD and licenses to practice.  Add malpractice and no wonder veneers cost $800 a pop and Crowns and implant posts cost $3K each).  Only real reason to go off to school is to break the apron strings and engage in all the social bad habits one quickly learns in College - Silicon Valley model is to teach yourself Coding by doing Coding and emulating Gates, Jobs and Zuckerberg - almost considered a waste to study engineering for 4 or 6 years when you can take night school classes and build equity in several new tech firms in 6 years time.  Of course a PhD in Math or Physics or Bio/pharma fields will pay in patent royalties over time some debt not bad - but the current house of cards system of debt for education is long overdue for a major economic reality check.  Same for nearly every other USA government subsidized social safety net programs that have gone completely out of control - as if they were ever in control in the first place. 

Not all is gloom and doom Black Friday sales up 16% over 2010 and Cyber Monday sales up 27% and facebook just announced they will have a historic $10B IPO with $100B Market Cap in the spring 2010 - largest in history - with $4.7B in advertising revenues from corps dying to get highly personalized and targeted ads in front of 800 Million users - facebook estimates its next 1 billion users to all be mobile...  with only 3,000 employees they have created about 200,000 independent developer jobs and over $15 Billion in economic activity so anyone who can get their hands on facebook stock now might be pleasantly surprised as they could become the next Microsoft if they wanted to - of Course Microsoft was one of their earliest investors and facebook is completely integrated with Skype and Bing and Yahoo now.  Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft all booming globally and the internet is here to stay along with Radio and Television - True 4G wireless will transform everything along with ubiquitous Cloud computing and ironically it is the cable TV monopolies who may suffer the most when you can have 1GB of bandwidth literally in the palm of your hand anywhere you go in the Americas, Europe and AsiaPac regions - Africa and Middle East outlook still a bit spotty.

As the giant telecomms went the way of P2P with the likes of Skype so will the major money center banks go when everyone on the planet is linked with peer to peer electronic banking and finance - imagine everyone with a cyber secured smartphone containing all their electronic currency units - life savings and total portfolios if you will and anyone who needs to buy anything on credit does an instant ask bid match for how much they are willing to pay in interest at that moment and folks with surplus mobile credit units programmed in what they are willing to accept for interest on their borrowed savings at any point in time based upon risk and term of the credits - with a giant like facebook tying everyone in the world together then the Too Big to fail banks that keep everyone in debt from cradle to grave actually become redundant and useless as direct P2P banking and finance eliminates the need and ability for these techno dinosaurs to charge usurious interest rates on plastic money and can eliminate the need for international cash gatekeepers as free capital P2P markets would be the ultimate in free international commerce - as easy to use as sending a secure email.  One can hope - ironically mobile True 4G and mega social networks like facebook linkedin and google+ could actually obsolete the need for banks and regulators in just a matter of years - even international trade and letters of credit could go social networks as everyones track records of borrowing and re-payments would be known and "trust" rated and those with the best track records actually able to open businesses and fund them with the same global P2P virtual banking finance system.  Scammers would be immediately identified and banned.

Now that should give Ron Paul something to smile about.  The end of the Fed as being as obsolete as buggy whips in a totally virtualized electronic money world - no cash or atms necessary as you would buy and pay with your Mobile and QR codes.  The tyranny of the man in the middle Education, Healthcare and Finance... giant Credit Card banks would give way to work, save and pay as you go with true free and cost effective capitalists' markets where everyone is a capitalist and your smart phone and cloud serves as your virtual money maestros.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on November 30, 2011, 11:40:35 PM
Outstanding reply, thanks!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on November 30, 2011, 11:45:11 PM
Cuffy,
Funny you mentioned student loans.  I received an email from one of my attorneys asking me to sign a petition to congress in favor of forgiving all student loans.  WTF!!!

Your comment about getting student loans for a degree in basket weaving is also very funny.  My ex girlfriend and I had many arguments about her sons doing exactly that :)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Chris on December 01, 2011, 02:51:48 AM
Quote from: Cuffy
Point is technology is now at the point where every lecture can be YouTubed or Vimeoed for posterity with immediate PDF lecture notes and transcripts and any child with reasonable comprehension can now learn at the collegiate level for free online from home - the days of $600 per credit Community College courses and $250K ivy league educations (A Dentist friend in Boston accumulated $250K in loans and interest to get their DMD and licenses to practice.  Add malpractice and no wonder veneers cost $800 a pop and Crowns and implant posts cost $3K each).  Only real reason to go off to school is to break the apron strings and engage in all the social bad habits one quickly learns in College - Silicon Valley model is to teach yourself Coding by doing Coding and emulating Gates, Jobs and Zuckerberg - almost considered a waste to study engineering for 4 or 6 years when you can take night school classes and build equity in several new tech firms in 6 years time.  Of course a PhD in Math or Physics or Bio/pharma fields will pay in patent royalties over time some debt not bad - but the current house of cards system of debt for education is long overdue for a major economic reality check.  Same for nearly every other USA government subsidized social safety net programs that have gone completely out of control - as if they were ever in control in the first place. 


There's a lot of truth in this, in my Business life I have met many wealthy people and done business with a lot of them, lots of the most successful entrepreneurs and businessmen have not been to any higher education establishment and learn their trade through the 'University of Life'

One individual I did a lot of business with in the mid nineties, used to mention this quite a bit, he had no special education at all, he built up a very small advertising agency not because he had experience in that field but because he thought it was a good idea at the time  :) he knew no different and wasn't aware of any of the possible pitfalls. One day a Company called him totally out of the blue and offered him half a million for his little back street agency, the guy was basically potless at the time living out of his car, but he had the 'University of Life' experience and nouse to realise that he could call their bluff, so he turned them down and waited until they came back with a better offer, they did and he eventually sold out for nearly £750.000. With what was left after he paid taxes (that's another story) he went on to buy an old run down cinema that no one wanted and turned it into a nightclub, didn't use any of his own money but managed to borrow it from the brewery to fund it all using his nestegg and the property as collateral, (we refurbished it and fit it out for him) sold a couple of years later for a few million and moved to Florida to semi retire and work out his three year no trading clause they inserted in the purchase.

Bang on the three year mark he came back to the UK and bought another very big old cinema and this time he turned it into the largest nightclub in Europe, (again using brewery money to do so) right on the doorstep of his last one  :chuckle: two to three years later he sold that one, this time walking away with over £50m, I hadn't seen him for years, but I bumped into him a few weeks ago, he still lives not far from me and his grandchildren go to the same drama school as my daughter. I asked him how he is doing, his reply, still learning from the 'University of Life'  Chris, still learning  :chuckle:



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on December 01, 2011, 06:45:28 AM
I have to agree that the value of education is overstated.  To succeed in school you need the ability to memorize facts.  It really is memory far more than logic or intelligence that determines academic success.  In other words you can be educated and dumb or uneducated with a lot of intelligence and common success and those two qualities will get you further in life than if you don't have them.  The value of an education may well be more the doors it will open and the contacts you make. There are lots of success stories such as Henry Ford with an 8th grade education and guys like Gates and Dell who were college drop outs.

As far as the US economy there are some bright sides.  As bad as our debt is many countries are in worse shape.   The businesses in the USA are doing fairly well.  The cost of labor in China has trippled and there is some movement of manufacturing back to the USA.  The situation with the Dollar has helped us in the international market place.  The housing situation is still bad but not getting any worse and in a few years will start to recover.  Housing starts are still far lower than new family creation.  We need leadership that will start being financially more conservative but the situation is far from hopeless.

I get very concerned about the state of education in the USA.  We used to be leaders now we are in 16th place.  If we keep turning out high school graduates who can barely read, write, add and subtract can we come up with the innovations to be a leader in the world.  When I look at my own business life I often used the things I learned in high school, but can't think of a lot that I learned at the college level that was of much real benefit with the possible exception of my economics class.  I gained far more from the education I got in the business world.  Innovative products are what made America what it has been.  It is the key to the future.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on December 01, 2011, 11:19:50 AM
Personally I think your crystal ball will turn out to be a little murky.  My guess is that a year from now you will hear little about financial problems in Europe, the stock market will be 10% or better ahead of where it is now, unemployment in the USA will be about 7.5-8%, the GDP will be growing a bit faster than now and gold will be less than $ 1500.00. 

But then again, who am I to have any claim to knowing anything.  It was me who guessed that the gold prices would drop before they climed to over $ 1900.00 for a while. 

We only have to wait a year to see which of us is right.   I just went from a fair amount of cash on the sidelines to fully invested yesterday morning.

i agree, its going to take a year to find out who was right.

but things like China's pmi(manufacturing index) dropping to a 32 month low is just another indicator to me that a slow down or second recession is coming.

linky for that: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/china-manufacturing-pmi-plunges-to-32.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on December 01, 2011, 11:25:50 AM

But then again, who am I to have any claim to knowing anything.  It was me who guessed that the gold prices would drop before they climed to over $ 1900.00 for a while. 

We only have to wait a year to see which of us is right.   I just went from a fair amount of cash on the sidelines to fully invested yesterday morning.

My guess backed by a bet gold over $2000 (for a while) and the Euro to the dollar € 1,= is $ 1,24

We all shall see.

And where is JC?

AvHdB

Gold will be the most interesting thing for me to watch over the next year.

if what i pay attention to is right, and 2012 brings a 2nd recession; will be interesting to see if the GLD drops with the recession or rises as people see it as a safe haven.

i mean, it dropped in the last recession and its rise since 2009 has been amazing; will be telling of people's opinion of the global economy on which way it goes imo.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 02, 2011, 12:44:12 PM
Looks like more than an few folks willing to tunnel for "gold" into the good old USofA

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45327019/ns/us_news/t/san-diego-drug-tunnel-stands-out-sophistication/?ocid=ansmsnbc11#.Ttkn6rIr27s

Amazing on so many levels really - this tunnel was large enough to smuggle arms and even illegal nuclear warheads and Iranian and Al Qaeda whack jobs crazy enough to use them...  Its time to close of this crazy border with not just Arial surveillance but subsurface seismic sensors as well - and the fence shouls have a foundation that goes down to bedrock as well... 

Amazing most other 3rd world places people tunnel to get out of there - while they tunnel to get into the USA  - wonder how many dozens more of these exist across the entire US Mexico border as well as the US Canada border - plenty of drugs coming in from up North as well as Canadian semi-truck drivers can go just about anywhere they please to deliver their loads (US Teamsters union protesting same for Mexican drivers as they work for less that $10 an hour so could be a trucking as well as narco war soon as they are one and the same - the Mexican drug cartels are equally as creative with rigging large trucks to transport drugs as they are with their tunnels.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 02, 2011, 12:48:00 PM
Peter Schiff Update on PM/GOLD:
http://www.europacmetals.com/commentaries/newsid416/116/global-central-banks-ring-gold-buyers-bell.aspx
   
Friends,
Today’s unprecedented announcement by the world’s most powerful central banks was a loud and clear bell ringing to buy precious metals. The move, disguised as an attempt to help the fragile state of the global economy, is in reality a move to prop up failing banks in Europe and the US.

By reducing interest rates paid for dollar swaps, central bankers are in effect increasing the quantity of global dollars in circulation. The result? The dollar will weaken, inflation will rise, and gold will soar. Gold was up more than $30 today, and the dollar got crushed.

I urge you to take 7 minutes to watch the video I recorded exclusively for my subscribers a few hours ago. It explains, in plain language, what happened today – and what is the likely outcome for your portfolio. This may be one of the most important economic events of the year.

Sincerely,

Peter Schiff
Chief Executive Officer
Euro Pacific Precious Metals
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 02, 2011, 12:52:57 PM
How to Cash in on the “Misery Investment”

This Month’s Currency Capitalist Has the Full Story

Dear Mike,

In Currency Capitalist:

In this month’s Currency Capitalist, editor, Evaldo Albuquerque has the full story on what he calls “the misery investment” – an easy way to secure your purchasing power against the falling U.S. dollar.

You’ll discover why one indicator that most people have never heard of is revealing how bad things really are in America… how the U.S. managed to accumulate $9.3 trillion in debt in just the last 11 years… why the past decade has marked a turning point for America… and how to protect yourself from it all.

In an exclusive interview with 35-year currency veteran, Chuck Butler, you’ll hear why this misery investment is the answer to profiting off America’s now $15 trillion debt… the five key factors that will drive this play higher over the next five years… and a simple way to add this misery play to your retirement plan immediately for bigger gains in 2012.

Plus, Evaldo will give you the full details on your latest screaming buy in the Currency Capitalist portfolio – that puts you in the best position to profit off a possible banking crisis in Europe.
All the details are in the December issue of Currency Capitalist for our paid members. Click here for details on how to get this issue right away.
Good Currency Investing!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 02, 2011, 01:17:58 PM
Serious Stuff really....

Offshore Solution to an
Onshore Crisis

By Bob Bauman JD, Chairman, Freedom Alliance

Dear Mike,

The political and financial crisis engulfing America and Europe now dictates you do more than just talk about “going offshore.”

Don’t be put off by the constant drumbeat of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) against offshore financial activity by Americans. Remember one simple fact: under U.S. law, it is legal for Americans to have foreign bank and financial accounts.

It is also legal for Americans to invest in foreign stock and bond markets and mutual funds, own foreign real estate and businesses, establish and fund offshore trusts and private foundations, deposit assets in foreign bank and brokerage accounts, purchase offshore annuities and life insurance and even convert U.S.-based retirement funds to offshore jurisdictions.

The major U.S. legal obligation is that offshore activity must be reported to the U.S. government and any U.S. taxes due must be paid on foreign income.

These offshore safety nets are not just important for the wealthy— people of modest means need trusted offshore financial mechanisms now more than ever.

The Strange Disappearance of 800,000 American Millionaires

Since 2007 the number of U.S. millionaires fell by 800,000. Yet, over 3,800,000 new millionaires suddenly appeared in other countries!

You might think the real estate bust explains the disappearance of these millionaires... but that isn’t the whole story.

So why are Americans getting poorer as others are getting richer?

The answer may surprise you...
As I write this, serious questions persist about the pending demise of the European Union and the euro- in spite of developments this week.

European banks still face 10s, possibly 100s, of billions of dollars in losses on loans to governments that use the euro.

Billions in sovereign debt could yet sink Greece, Portugal, Spain, Hungary and Italy, along with shaky banks in Germany and France holding their bonds.

Counting the Whys

This ongoing crisis only adds to the many good reasons why you should to go offshore. Here are just some of those reasons:

Diversifying your investment in carefully chosen foreign currencies, equities, funds and financial products is financially prudent - and profitable.

Concern over the safety of the U.S. financial system and the U.S. dollar dictate a need for diversified wealth offshore.

Business expansion into new and emerging markets and new sources of production require foreign accounts.

Entities such as foreign corporations, private family foundations or asset protection trusts are essential for individuals and for international businesses-investment planning.

Sophisticated people understand the need to diversify into foreign options as well as the benefits of stricter foreign laws to better protect their hard-earned assets.

Doubts over the safety of retirement plans located in the U.S. A protected nest egg in a stable foreign country provides greater assurance for wealth-preservation.

The law suit-happy nature of America has prompted wise individuals to preserve at least some of their assets in foreign jurisdictions, where the likelihood of successful creditors’ attacks is significantly lower.

In the U.S., financial privacy under the PATRIOT Act is dead. Even though banking secrecy worldwide has been diminished in the name of catching illegal tax evaders, a number of foreign nations still provide far stronger confidentiality laws.
For many years, IRS and American high-taxing, big-spending politicians have seized on any spurious reason to try to justify attacks on the perfectly legitimate offshore activity of American citizens.

Always alert to the uses of demagogy, when the 2008 world recession was caused by U.S. and foreign banks’ improvident obsession with trading trillions in worthless paper, the cry went up that offshore havens had caused the collapse. That story died quickly when it became clear that the true culprits were the ones bailed out by the U.S. taxpayer.

Just How Safe Are American Banks?

Some of America’s recently bailed-out banks may be among the dominoes ready to fall when the EU goes.

For Italy alone, U.S. banks had $47 billion in net exposure to government borrowings and private debt at the end of June.

Goldman Sachs has $700 million in exposure to Italy. The loss from a write-down similar to that on the Greek debt, 50 cents on the dollar, would erase 10% of the $3.43 billion in profit Goldman earned in the first nine months of 2011.

The major fear is that the U.S. banks don’t have enough capital to cover losses from the euro zone.

With the coming economic collapse at hand, with the strangulation of financial and personal freedom in the U.S., the time to act to preserve your own wealth is now.

Salvation means the transfer of at least some cash and assets into reputable offshore banks.

It means personal meetings with veteran asset managers in jurisdictions that enjoy established histories of sound investment and currency management.

The Freedom Alliance was created by the Sovereign Society precisely for asset protection and better profits.

Drawing on our nearly 14 years of experience and extensive due diligence, we can put you in touch immediately with offshore financial advisors, professionals, banks and investment experts in numerous offshore financial centers.

Join us today and together we will find the right offshore solutions for you.

Faithfully yours,

Bob Bauman JD
Chairman, Freedom Alliance

P.S. There’s no worse fate than becoming a slave to your own government. The longer we delay shielding our assets, the more our wealth will hemorrhage and the tighter those chains become. But you can choose not be a slave anymore. The Sovereign Society’s top experts’ have just released their most important secrets of the year - The Sovereign Survival Guide: How to Thrive During the Great American Meltdown. In this indispensable book, you’ll discover how to exploit offshore investment opportunities and build long-lasting wealth. You’ll also discover how to shield your hard-earned assets from frivolous litigation and government privacy invasions - to name but a few. Pry yourself from the grasp of a government that’s destroying our economy and wants to enslave you. Click here for a free copy of The Sovereign Survival Guide and learn how to become a truly sovereign individual.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: nicknick on December 02, 2011, 05:43:57 PM
Peter Schiff Update on PM/GOLD:
http://www.europacmetals.com/commentaries/newsid416/116/global-central-banks-ring-gold-buyers-bell.aspx
   
Friends,
Today’s unprecedented announcement by the world’s most powerful central banks was a loud and clear bell ringing to buy precious metals. The move, disguised as an attempt to help the fragile state of the global economy, is in reality a move to prop up failing banks in Europe and the US.

By reducing interest rates paid for dollar swaps, central bankers are in effect increasing the quantity of global dollars in circulation. The result? The dollar will weaken, inflation will rise, and gold will soar. Gold was up more than $30 today, and the dollar got crushed.

I urge you to take 7 minutes to watch the video I recorded exclusively for my subscribers a few hours ago. It explains, in plain language, what happened today – and what is the likely outcome for your portfolio. This may be one of the most important economic events of the year.

Sincerely,

Peter Schiff
Chief Executive Officer
Euro Pacific Precious Metals

I think that you do have to be aware of who is making these statements.  I would suggest that the CEO of ''Euro Pacific Precious Metals'' has a vested interest in talking up the prospects for gold.

However, I would agree that it's mostly about ''a move to prop up failing banks in Europe''

His comment that ''the dollar got crushed'' is quite a bit of an exaggeration.

The dollar is now stronger against the pound than it was before this announcement and almost back to the previous level against the Euro.

On the day, the dollar ended up 130 pips down against the Euro, after being around 240 pips down at one point from when the announcement was made at 1pm GMT.

That is quite a large daily range, but nothing exceptional.  There were just as large, if not larger, daily moves on 10th, 27th and 31st October and 9th and 23rd November and today was almost as big a move as well following the NFP figures.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on December 02, 2011, 07:18:21 PM
Peter Schiff Update on PM/GOLD:
http://www.europacmetals.com/commentaries/newsid416/116/global-central-banks-ring-gold-buyers-bell.aspx
   
Friends,
Today’s unprecedented announcement by the world’s most powerful central banks was a loud and clear bell ringing to buy precious metals. The move, disguised as an attempt to help the fragile state of the global economy, is in reality a move to prop up failing banks in Europe and the US.

By reducing interest rates paid for dollar swaps, central bankers are in effect increasing the quantity of global dollars in circulation. The result? The dollar will weaken, inflation will rise, and gold will soar. Gold was up more than $30 today, and the dollar got crushed.

I urge you to take 7 minutes to watch the video I recorded exclusively for my subscribers a few hours ago. It explains, in plain language, what happened today – and what is the likely outcome for your portfolio. This may be one of the most important economic events of the year.

Sincerely,

Peter Schiff
Chief Executive Officer
Euro Pacific Precious Metals

I think that you do have to be aware of who is making these statements.  I would suggest that the CEO of ''Euro Pacific Precious Metals'' has a vested interest in talking up the prospects for gold.

However, I would agree that it's mostly about ''a move to prop up failing banks in Europe''

His comment that ''the dollar got crushed'' is quite a bit of an exaggeration.

The dollar is now stronger against the pound than it was before this announcement and almost back to the previous level against the Euro.

On the day, the dollar ended up 130 pips down against the Euro, after being around 240 pips down at one point from when the announcement was made at 1pm GMT.

That is quite a large daily range, but nothing exceptional.  There were just as large, if not larger, daily moves on 10th, 27th and 31st October and 9th and 23rd November and today was almost as big a move as well following the NFP figures.

I agree with nicknick the USD is up against the Canadian dollar over the last two days and trading within a set range against the euro, so the USD was in no way crushed.  The big boost that pushed up the global stock markets was because this was a unified action by all the major central banks in the G20 and other countries. 

However this does nothing to solve the credit problems of the banks in Europe or the USA.  This action by the central banks merely gives the USA and Europe some more breathing room.  In simple English, they kicked the can down the road a few months, that's it, nothing more.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on December 03, 2011, 04:59:12 AM
Serious Stuff really....

Goldman Sachs has $700 million in exposure to Italy. The loss from a write-down similar to that on the Greek debt, 50 cents on the dollar, would erase 10% of the $3.43 billion in profit Goldman earned in the first nine months of 2011.

The major fear is that the U.S. banks don’t have enough capital to cover losses from the euro zone.

With the coming economic collapse at hand,

So, golman Sachs will probably collapse along with the whole economy since over Italy they have a chance of a humungus loss.  It could be as bad as 10% of their profits, for part of a year.   Come on, that's chump change for them.

I won't disagree there are serious problems in the world of international finance and banking but when people stick crap like this in it makes me question everything they say.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on December 03, 2011, 10:36:36 AM
I remember Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on TV saying they have everything under control months before the Sept 2008 Meltdown that resulted in TARP and mega trillion bailouts of the EU (FED OPEN WINDOW) and NYC Global Money Center banks...  the man was either completely incompetent or lying through his teeth...

Pointed Question Remains:

Just How Safe Are American Banks?

Some of America’s recently bailed-out banks may be among the dominoes ready to fall when the EU goes.

For Italy alone, U.S. banks had $47 billion in net exposure to government borrowings and private debt at the end of June.

Goldman Sachs has $700 million in exposure to Italy. The loss from a write-down similar to that on the Greek debt, 50 cents on the dollar, would erase 10% of the $3.43 billion in profit Goldman earned in the first nine months of 2011.

The major fear is that the U.S. banks don’t have enough capital to cover losses from the euro zone.

As for Peter Schiff he is one of the most ethical people among the 1% and guides people to wherever in the world their investments will grow and their nest eggs are safe - similar to the sovereign society.  Fact is that is no longer in the USA or EU/UK and therein lies the problem.

Looks like Newt Gingrich surging in the polls with two mega conservative endorsements in New Hampshire and looking good in Iowa now that Herman Cain has been unmasked as a liar and adulterer (Did you see the Conservative, Independent and Liberal but pissed at the economy Women's vote fly out the window - question is how much damage has Cain done to the conservative chances in 2012 - amazing that 10% more women vote than men in the General Elections).

Bottom line is be it EU or USA we are quite likely to have another mega crisis before Nov 2012 like Sept 2008 that could have a profound impact on the Global Economy.  Peter Schiff, Sovereign Society and even pro stocks Motley Fool all seem to be singing from the same hymnal - US and EU structural economic and social entitlements society issues especially with the PIIGS - note: not just Italy but Portugal Ireland Italy Greece and Spain plus Hungary and EEU Eastern European Union states - all near the tipping point. 

The only ray of light in the darkness here is that the Banks yanked most small businesses plastic lines of credit in the past 3 years (Show me a builder who can still walk into Lowes or Home Depot and charge $50K in construction materials on his signature any more... only the guys who have retained cash savings and don't need or want the credit/debt) so the collapse of the Mega Money Center banks more of a money center and Government bailout TARP 2.0 problem now and less of a problem for Main Street which has been on a cash and carry economy for a few years now since the Crash of Sept 2008 and market bottom in March 2009.

So whether these guys are touts for Physical Metals or diversifying into Global and Offshore equities are just being self centered - or are they really right and stormy times ahead for EU UK and USA while all the growth occurs in the BRICS and their Latin American and AsiaPac neighbors including OZ and NZ.

If anything this proves that we can now longer allow the FED to act in impudent secrecy and force them to operate in the full light of day so we can see just how many in additional Trillions of debt  they have obligated the USA Government and Taxpayers to.

I would not dismiss honest warnings out of hand.

At this point the US Govt has only three real choices - none of them very good and all pretty much political poison:

1. Keep "printing" paper and electronic vapor-cash and hoping that the FED, Treasury and Global Money Center banks can put off the inevitable day of ObamZimbabwe reckoning.

2. Raise taxes back to post WWII confiscatory levels (80% On Millionaires and Billionaires) to pay off the National Debt, a laughable idea as we are currently spending $1.2 Trillion more a year than we take in so... even $100% taxation not enough to deal with these spiraling debts!

3. The inevitable is a Icelandic, Argentine solution which is the Next Generation declares the previous generations administrations out of control mind boggling mega debts impossible to mange and thereby default as has happened so many times before in human history.

I read recently that the total Debts including unfunded Federal pensions and social entitlement programs debt in the USA now amounts to about $800,000 per US family which is only 2.14 people per family so really nearly $400K in debt per person!

Completely immoral and unsustainable levels of Debt and a day of reckoning inevitable resulting is 1. 2. or 3. or some combination of the above.

No wonder the investment advisros are saying this may in fact turn out to be a historic  buying opportunity for Physical Metals: Gold, Silver and Platinum.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: calmissile on December 03, 2011, 05:02:20 PM
Another great post Cuffy.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 04, 2012, 07:33:19 PM
In today's weekly wrap up newsletter from Euro Pacific Capital:

The look ahead into 2012 is not too bright:

2012 Offers Few Reasons for Optimism

By:
John Browne

Wednesday, December 28, 2011
 
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Breton-Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes. 
 
In the meantime, there is holiday spending to cheer us. From early reports, it appears that consumer spending in November and December was stronger than most forecasters had predicted. Politicians and bankers moved mountains to make this spending possible. Endless unemployment benefits, payroll tax holidays, and the lowest mortgage rates in history have allowed Americans to keep spending even as their economic outlook deteriorates. In addition, people who have defaulted on their mortgages and maintenance charges find their monthly cash flows increased by hundreds, if not thousands of dollars. Depressed and frustrated by the hardships of recession, this extra cash has been spent largely on consumer goods such as autos, home improvement, and electronics. But it is important to recognize that these positive sources of funds are simply debits against the accounts of others. In particular taxpayers who will bear the burden of an ever escalating deficit.
 
American and European Union politicians have shown utter paralysis in tackling intractable economic problems. Unwilling to make the tough decisions they all know should be enacted to avoid a looming global economic disaster, they have endlessly kicked the can down the road, while assuming that the road will go on forever. With an estimated $6 trillion plus solvency shortfall of the Eurozone banks and $16 trillion in U.S. public debt, it will take leadership of far greater caliber to avert a disaster. Such leadership is nowhere to be seen.
 
Despite the massive injections of public funds, banks are clearly not lending to small businesses, the vital source of economic recovery. Indeed, the vast government borrowings are ‘crowding’ private corporations out of funds available for lending. In essence, this cycling of funds, from the governments, to the banks, and back to the governments, has created profits for the few while offering no wider economic benefit.  In the meantime, the euro, as the world’s second currency, is in increasing danger of collapse. The euro is so shrouded in doubt that investors are fleeing to the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. This demand has created an illogical rally in U.S. dollar and Treasuries even as the major ratings agencies have telegraphed additional downgrades of U.S. government debt.
 
Unless major structural changes in fiscal policies are combined with sustained economic improvements, there is a significant likelihood that the euro will disintegrate in the coming years. As the world’s second currency, its demise would herald unprecedented bank runs and financial chaos. Following an initial rise, the U.S. dollar may face widespread pressure as investors realize that the dollar too is built on a foundation of sand. Although I continue to be amazed by the ability of bankers and politicians to delay this day of reckoning, I know instinctively that their power is finite.
 
If and when our current Breton Woods/dollar reserve system collapses, the chain reaction will stun many with its speed and ferocity. Once paper money and government obligations become suspect, they become not merely less valuable, but will see severe and rapid price changes. In such an environment, the return of gold and silver as reliable money will become much more widely accepted. This will usher in the next global chapter in economic history. Hopefully, next time around we will build on a better foundation.
 
In 2011, politicians of the U.S. and EU set their economies on a rendezvous with economic and financial disaster. If one assumes as I do that no leader on either side of the Atlantic has the courage to face the music, then there can be little reason for optimism in 2012.
 
John Browne is a Senior Economic Consultant to Euro Pacific Capital. Opinions expressed are those of the writer, and may or may not reflect those held by Euro Pacific Capital, or its CEO, Peter Schiff.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on January 05, 2012, 06:38:19 AM
The reality is that you can find lots of different opinions about anything.  I can recall reading the news on one stock I own and Motley Fool had two articles 45 minutes apart.  One was how that stock is a tremendous buy and had a great, dynamic future and would be the best investment anyone could make.  The other was how the stock was the worst investment one could make and how the company was doomed to fail. 

Personally I do think there is a possibility of a total financial collapse that might make the great depression look like a cake walk.  I also think that the odds are better that it won't happen.  That we have not passed by the point of no return.  I do think we need better leadership here and around the world and we need to take better steps to financial solvency. 

Those who want to look at the bight side can find lots to be optimistic about.  The manufacturing segment seems to be healty.  Jobs are starting to be created again.  The housing industry may have bottomed out and may be starting to move upward.  Consumer confidence is much better than it had been. 

Those numbers that are supplied for the bank are not insignifigant.  I know if I had a few billion more my financial condition would be much improved but those are not all that big of numbers for the banks.  The can handle that without collapsing. 

I see 2012 as being a lot brighter than Mr Browne does.  I do think that a major disruption in the oil supply is one of the bigger dangers that we face.  It could lead to a global financial collapse and may be more of a concern than the problems in Greece etc.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 05, 2012, 12:09:35 PM

Personally I do think there is a possibility of a total financial collapse that might make the great depression look like a cake walk.  I also think that the odds are better that it won't happen.  That we have not passed by the point of no return.  I do think we need better leadership here and around the world and we need to take better steps to financial solvency. 

I see 2012 as being a lot brighter than Mr Browne does.  I do think that a major disruption in the oil supply is one of the bigger dangers that we face.  It could lead to a global financial collapse and may be more of a concern than the problems in Greece etc.

i'm with you on both of those.

everything i read says the nearly entire world(europe,china and austrailia) except the US is already in a recession, but am increasingly convinced obama will make things look as good as possible until election day(i would think any president would do that though coming up on a re-election). with that, and the small amounts of good news like ISM increasing 2 months in a row; 2012 actuall will look good compared to the past 3years.

i really think the US will limp along like it did in 2011 and then in 2013 the wheels fall off for the US. you just cant keep up the spending with no real job growth and not have it backfire eventually.

so, i'm actually going loong in some stocks until end of the strong stock season in april.

unfortunately, i didnt come to that realization until december. if i'd have figured that out in october; i'd be taking ski trips twice a month.   :biggrin:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on January 05, 2012, 12:16:08 PM
World economy is doing very well when you consider the growth in India, China, Brazil.  People need to read the world is flat.  Not everyone in the world can be middle class or rich.  Countries like America have too many people in the middle class and many have / will move to poor as the world gets more competitive.  As more people become middle class in India and China means more people in Europe and USA will become poor.  All about the world is flat.  Only so many people can be middle class.  Number of people getting poorer right now is less than the number getting richer. 

Being middle class is not a right something that has to be earned.  Aways learn and you better be more efficient than the guy next door or overseas. 

People will need to learn to move where the work is.  Here in Houston for 3 years now we struggle to find engineers and doctors.  So we import them.   I know many engineers in Ohio and Michigan who complain about no work but they will not move to Texas. 

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 05, 2012, 03:01:41 PM
Any parts of the USA serving the global growth economies doing quite well as the huge BRIC populations and their neighbors move en-masse into the Middle Class (Cars versus Bicycles and Scooters.  Goal should be to lift all boats in the rising tides.   USA Health tech, Biotechs and global high tech companies all booming as the world ages.  Our Agribusinesses and natural resources companies and natgas fields due to new frakking technologies all booming - even good old coal can't be dug, railed and shipped fast enough to China etc.

Just need to enforce global labor, health, safety and environmental standards if our friendemies want continued access to the developed markets (North America and EU) and our intellectual property that they now demand and get for FREE by technology transfer or industrial espionage that is running rampant. 

We need to insist on fair trade globally.  How to phrase this diplomatically:
NO MORE RED COMMIE CHINESE CHEATING!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 07, 2012, 03:54:06 PM
Sovereign Society Video - these guys are not known to be part of the Tin Foil hats club so...

Switch to digital currency:

http://www.sovereignsociety.com/pages/svs/digital_currency_video2.php?pub=DIGICURR&code=ESVSN106&o=578939&s=583098&u=40710228&l=361513&r=Milo
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Chris on January 08, 2012, 02:36:26 AM
Sovereign Society Video - these guys are not known to be part of the Tin Foil hats club so...

Switch to digital currency:

http://www.sovereignsociety.com/pages/svs/digital_currency_video2.php?pub=DIGICURR&code=ESVSN106&o=578939&s=583098&u=40710228&l=361513&r=Milo

Cuffy the link doesn't work for some reason, (looks to have been taken down?) never the less, I saw that video last week, (if its the one I'm thinking of 'shredding and burying' ) very interesting and makes a lot of sense, doesn't it.

What was also very interesting was the way Silver has produced much better returns over the last 30+ years than Gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 08, 2012, 01:37:34 PM
Looks like you have to register first to get the live link and video: http://www.sovereignsociety.com/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 11, 2012, 08:53:27 AM

just fyi for the goldbugs,

the local financial show i follow in houston is saying that if gold breaks below 1500; it could go down to 1300.

i would agree with that sentiment as most likely the market will rally until may(seasonally strong period and everyone has kicked the problems down the road, imo). if that holds true, gold around 1300 isnt too hard to see.

http://www.streettalklive.com/off-the-street/607.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 12, 2012, 01:24:35 PM

more gold/silver info.

i cam across this site before Christmas and kept meaning to put it up here: http://www.jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

some economic stats but this guy charts gold and silver. might be worth checking out if you have some gold or are looking to buy.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 20, 2012, 11:48:24 AM


came across this zoomable graphic which shows financial crises from 1800:

https://www.historyshots.com/FinancialCrisis/index.cfm

just for all those thinking western civilization is done for, we've made it through tough times and countries defaulting like dominoes before and we survived. we'll survive this too eventually.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 27, 2012, 11:22:53 AM

more gold info.

this is a great graphic of where gold comes from(what countries), how much is mined and recycled and where it goes(jewelry, funds,etc)

thought i'd pass it along for the goldbugs or anyone that might be interested: http://www.trustablegold.com/the-gold-tree-infographic/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on January 27, 2012, 11:55:25 AM
Great graphic - who knew that OZ was a bigger annual producer than Russia and China combined!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on January 31, 2012, 02:10:26 PM
another gold article of a site i visit, thought i'd pass along: http://www.acting-man.com/?p=13883#more-13883

the money quote: "As QB Partners are fond of pointing out,  the gold price level that would be required so that the value the official US gold reserves would 'cover' the amount of US base money outstanding amounts to approximately $9,000/oz."

just as much as i speculate on where a stock will go, i'm sure goldbugs do the same.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 01, 2012, 05:55:28 PM
Fascinating Story About Platinum and UK Russia and USA:

Treasure hunter says he found $3B WWII wreck

By CLARKE CANFIELD | Associated Press – 1 hr 2 mins ago

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — A treasure hunter said Wednesday he has located the wreck of a British merchant ship that was torpedoed by a German U-boat off Cape Cod during World War II while carrying what he claims was a load of platinum bars now worth more than $3 billion.

If the claim proves true, it could be one of the richest sunken treasures ever discovered.
But an attorney for the British government expressed doubt the vessel was carrying platinum. And if it was, in fact, laden with precious metals, who owns the hoard could become a matter of international dispute.
Treasure hunter Greg Brooks of Sub Sea Research in Gorham, Maine, announced that a wreck found sitting in 700 feet of water 50 miles offshore is that of the S.S. Port Nicholson, sunk in 1942.

He said he and his crew identified it via the hull number using an underwater camera, and he hopes to begin raising the treasure later this month or in early March with the help of a remotely operated underwater vessel.
"I'm going to get it, one way or another, even if I have to lift the ship out of the water," Brooks said.
The claim should be viewed with skepticism, said Robert F. Marx, an underwater archaeologist, maritime historian and owner of Seven Seas Search and Salvage LLC in Florida. Both an American company and an English company previously went after the contents of the ship years ago and surely retrieved at least a portion, Marx said. The question is how much, if any, platinum is left, he said.

"Every wreck that is lost is the richest wreck lost. Every wreck ever found is the biggest ever found. Every recovery is the biggest ever recovery," Marx said.

Brooks said the Port Nicholson was headed for New York with 71 tons of platinum valued at the time at about $53 million when it was sunk in an attack that left six people dead. The platinum was a payment from the Soviet Union to the U.S. for war supplies, Brooks said. The vessel was also carrying gold bullion and diamonds, he said.

Brooks said he located the wreck in 2008 using shipboard sonar but held off announcing the find while he and his business partners obtained salvage rights from a federal judge. Salvage rights are not the same as ownership rights, which are still unsettled.

Britain will wait until salvage operations begin before deciding whether to file a claim on the cargo, said Anthony Shusta, an attorney in Tampa, Fla., who represents the British government. He said it is unclear if the ship was even carrying any platinum.

"We're still researching what was on the vessel," he said. "Our initial research indicated it was mostly machinery and military stores."

The U.S. government has not weighed in on the court case yet, and Brooks said he doubts that will happen, since the Soviets eventually reimbursed Washington for the lost payment.

A U.S. Treasury Department ledger shows that the platinum bars were on board, Brooks said, and his underwater video footage shows a platinum bar surrounded by 30 boxes that he believes hold four to five platinum ingots each. But he has yet to bring up any platinum, saying his underwater vessel needs to retrofitted to attach lines to the boxes, which would then be hoisted to the surface by winch.
"Of course there are skeptics," he said. "There's skeptics on everything you do."

Maritime law is complicated, and there could be multiple claims on the ship's contents.

After the sinking of the HMS Edinburgh, an English warship carrying Russian gold bullion as a payment to the allies during World War II, England, the U.S. and Russia made claims on the sunken treasure, Marx said. The salvage company was given 10 percent of the prize, while the three countries split the rest, he said.
In other big finds, treasure hunter Mel Fisher made international headlines in 1985 when he discovered a $450 million mother lode of precious metals and gemstones from a Spanish galleon that went down off Florida in 1622.

In another case, a Tampa exploration company has been ordered by the courts to return $500 million worth of treasure from a Spanish warship to Spain. The ship was sunk by the British navy during a battle off Portugal in 1804.
___
Associated Press writer David Sharp in Portland, Maine, and researcher Barbara Sambriski in New York contributed to this story.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 01, 2012, 06:40:56 PM
Penny for anyone elses thoughts on this NIA email today:

Facebook is expected to file their S-1 for their IPO tomorrow. It is expected that Facebook will begin trading in May with a market cap of approximately $100 billion and they will likely raise around $10 billion in the IPO.
 
Already this evening in the financial mainstream media, the Facebook IPO is the #1 topic being discussed. As we approach the Facebook IPO, the media coverage of it will only increase and everybody in the world will be talking about it. We expect investors to soon begin searching for other publicly traded stocks that could benefit greatly from Facebook's IPO. NIA believes there is no publicly traded company that will benefit more from the Facebook IPO than BroadVision Inc. (BVSN).
 
BVSN had a huge day on Tuesday rising $2.91 or 14% to $23.94 on volume of 1,045,997 and in afterhours trading BVSN is up another $0.31 to $24.25. The enterprise social networking industry today is still in its infancy, just like the consumer social networking industry was three years ago when Facebook began its rapid growth. BVSN along with Jive Software (JIVE) are the only two publicly traded pure enterprise social plays that exist today.
 
BVSN just reported on Thursday evening that they signed 117 new Clearvale Enterprise customers in 2011, which was up 290% from the 30 Clearvale Enterprise customers BVSN signed in 2010. BVSN also reported that they signed 33 new customers in the 4Q of 2011 alone, which was more than the whole previous year.
 
BVSN's growth has now surpassed the industry leader JIVE. While BVSN signed 117 new customers last year, JIVE only grew by 113 new customers in the 12 months ending June 30th, 2011. We estimate that JIVE now has about 680 total customers, which is much more than BVSN's estimated total customer base of 147. However, JIVE has been offering their Engage platform for many years. BVSN's Clearvale Enterprise platform is newer, better, and cheaper. Over the long-term we strongly believe BVSN could grow to become much bigger than JIVE is today.
 
At BVSN's current price of $23.94 per share it has a market cap of only $108.09 million. Once you subtract BVSN's $54.4 million cash position and an additional $17 million for BVSN's old legacy products, BVSN's Clearvale platforms are being valued at only $36.69 million, which is absolutely nothing. For comparison purposes, JIVE currently has a market cap of $877.13 million and once you subtract their net cash position of $200.99 million, JIVE's Engage platform is being valued at $676.14 million.
 
JIVE's Engage is currently being valued 18.43 times higher than BVSN's Clearvale, when BVSN's Clearvale is now growing much faster! BVSN only has about 21.6% of JIVE's customers, but if BVSN's Clearvale was worth 21.6% of what JIVE's Engage is currently worth, Clearvale would be worth $146.05 million. Add to that BVSN's $54.4 million in cash and $17 million for BVSN's old legacy products and BVSN would trade at a market cap of $217.45 million and a price of $48.16 per share.
 
While JIVE's Engage platform is the market leader in terms of fully featured paid for enterprise social networks, Yammer is the current market leader in terms of limited featured free enterprise social networks. A story just came out today about how employees at Alcatel-Lucent setup their own Yammer network and after their employees had so much success using the free Yammer enterprise social platform, Alcatel-Lucent decided to deploy their own fully featured enterprise social network using JIVE: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/ hinchcliffe/enterprise-20- success-alcatel-lucent/1917
 
Although Yammer offers an upgraded version with more features that companies can pay for, it doesn't offer nearly as many features and functions as BVSN's Clearvale Enterprise and JIVE's Engage. Although JIVE's Engage is a very good top-tier platform, JIVE doesn't offer a free version like Yammer with the potential to go viral.
 
BVSN offers the best of both worlds! BVSN is now offering a free "Twitter like" enterprise social network called Enterprise Express that is better than Yammer and we expect it to soon go viral like Yammer. Any employee of a company can setup Clearvale Express for free at http://clearvale.com and begin communicating online with their co-workers immediately in a secure environment.
 
Once employees have huge success with Clearvale Express, BVSN offers a quick and easy way for a company to upgrade seamlessly to BVSN's fully featured top-tier Clearvale Enterprise platform. So while Yammer is losing the majority of their customers when their free users like Alcatel-Lucent finally decide to upgrade to a paid fully featured network, we believe BVSN will keep the majority of their Clearvale Express clients and we will see most of them upgrade to Clearvale Enterprise.
 
When Clearvale Express begins to go viral as thousands of people around the world learn it is a more useful free network with better features than Yammer, we believe BVSN will quickly catch up to JIVE in terms of total paid customers. JIVE does not offer a free version of their platform and therefore we believe BVSN's Clearvale Express gives BVSN a huge advantage over JIVE.
 
The biggest catalyst we see coming for BVSN in the near-future that will further set BVSN apart from JIVE is BVSN's upcoming Clearvale Nexus. This new platform being developed by BVSN will soon become a major game-changer in the industry. Clearvale Nexus will allow BVSN's Clearvale Enterprise users to access a directory of other Clearvale Enterprise users at different companies and through Clearvale Nexus businesses will be able to form new partnerships with other businesses and collaborate with them through Clearvale in a secure environment. This is something that no other enterprise social platform in the world does. Clearvale Nexus has not yet been officially announced by BVSN, but when it finally is we expect BVSN to become one of the biggest plays on Wall Street.
 
NIA believes the run BVSN recently made to $44.75 is small compared to the run BVSN could soon make in the months to come as we get closer to the Facebook IPO. The month of March is going to be absolutely huge for BVSN. We expect BVSN to receive massive international exposure at the Digital London Summit conference on March 13-14. Go to http://www.digitallon.com/ and look at what company logos are on the homepage. The main attractions of the Digital London Summit will be BVSN, Adobe, Microsoft, Cisco, and Juniper. These are all multi billion dollar companies that are going to be making their presence felt at the Digital London Summit along with BVSN. The Mayor of London is even going to be participating at the summit!
 
After the Digital London Summit, think about the massive worldwide media attention BVSN could potentially receive as we approach the Facebook IPO a short time afterwards. BVSN's CEO will be speaking there about How Social Networking will Change the Way We Work!
 
NIA loves how BVSN's CEO owns 36.7% of his own company. JIVE's CEO only owns 1.85% of his own company! Speaking of BVSN's CEO, check out this old BusinessWeek article: http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_39/b3648002.htm
 
It is called "The e.biz 25: Masters of the Web Universe" and names the 25 Internet pioneers who are changing the competitive landscape of almost every industry in the world. On the right side of the page there is a vertical box displaying the names of BusinessWeek's Top 25 Masters of the Web Universe along with their company names. You will see such people as Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Meg Whitman of eBay, and as you continue down right underneath Louis Gerstner of IBM you will see Pehong Chen of BVSN! Interestingly, also on the list is Masayoshi Son of Softbank, a $31 billion Japanese company that is now reselling BVSN's Clearvale social platforms to their own partners and customers!
 
If you would like to receive NIA's exclusive Social Network Stocks 2012 Report, please go to: http://inflation.us/social2012.html
 
Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 146,000 shares of BVSN. NIA agreed to a 60 day holding period on its initial position of 122,000 shares starting from the date that NIA first suggested the company, but NIA intends to sell these 122,000 shares at some point in the future after the date of February 12th, 2012. NIA intends to sell its additional 24,000 shares of BVSN and can sell them at any time. NIA reserves the right to accumulate more shares of BVSN at any time. NIA's co-founders have also been referred business in the past from somebody who has filed as a large BVSN shareholder. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
 
NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice. NIA's co-founders have previously disseminated information about BVSN in other media outlets.
 
Additional legal disclaimer information: http://inflation.us/legaldisclaimer.html


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 19, 2012, 11:18:31 AM
I am posting the following Sovereign Society update with an Offshore Perspective of BHO's latest budget - cutting through the Whitehouse Spin:

Not good news for the future value of the Dollar...  sort of like Nero fiddling while Rome burns!

America’s Slide into Greece
Bob Bauman (February 16, 2012)


President Obama, in a scandalous show of bad faith and dereliction of his sworn duty, proposed a phony FY 2013 budget plan this week that increases spending from $3.8 trillion in 2013 to $5.8 trillion in 2022.

True to his New Deal socialist antecedents, the Obama budget will add to the bloated size and scope of the federal government and the national debt. Each American’s share of this debt is now $49, 211.27.

Here is a right-on comment about the Obama budget by Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer: “The president knows that we are headed over a cliff. He just wants to get past Election Day as he does on everything. But this is a budget worthy of Greece and for the president of the United States to offer it knowing how dire our situation is, is truly scandalous.”

If You Spent Like Obama…

For a stunning revelation of what the $3.8 trillion Obama budget would mean in the understandable numbers of an average family who followed his example, see the ABC News analysis by Jake Tapper.

If your budget followed Obama’s example it would mean a family budget as follows (with comparable Obama budget numbers at right):

Total family spending:            $38,000           $3.8 trillion Obama spending

Total family income:                $29,000           $2.9 trillion Obama deficit for 2013

Total new debt:                        $9,000              $9 trillion new Obama debt added

Existing credit card debt:      $153,000         $15.3 U.S. national debt

 Quite obviously, no family could live like this — and neither can the United States for very much longer.  Yet the president, who apparently thinks Americans are all ignorant dolts, told us he was “cutting” spending in his phone budget!

 Fat Phony Budget, Non-Existent Cuts

 Cato Institute economist Dan Mitchell (below) cut through the fog to get at the truth of what Obama claimed was a $2 trillion budget “cut” in spending over ten years.

“We have a budget of almost $4 trillion? So if we’re doing $2 trillion of cuts,” Mitchell said, “we’re cutting government in half. That sounds wonderful.”

But what the president was talking about is not even a cut. Obama just proposed that over the next 10 years, instead of increasing spending by $9.48 trillion, they’d increase it by “just” $7.3 trillion; calling that a “cut” is nonsense.

Mitchell gave an analogy: “What if I came to you and said, ‘I’ve been on a diet for the last month, and I’ve gained 10 pounds. Isn’t that great?’ You would say: ‘Wait, what are you talking about? That’s insane.’ And I said: ‘I was going to gain 15 pounds. I’ve only gained 10 pounds, therefore my diet is successful.’”

Snouts in the Feeding Trough

A central problem is that Americans in every demographic group are increasingly getting government handouts. That makes it that much tougher for weak kneed politicians to cut spending. Add to that the fact that half of all American pay no income taxes, so what do they care?

According to the Census Bureau’s data from the 3rd quarter 2010, 49% of Americans live in a household receiving benefits from one or more federal and state programs. That’s 148 million people out of a total population of 304 million. More than one in three Americans lived in households that received Medicaid, food stamps, or other means-based government assistance.

The Greeced Slide

Of course Obama and the Left want to go right on spending without making any real cuts or reforms. What they want is more taxes with the goal of redistributing income from those who pay taxes to those who don’t. This is another cheap repeat of the old Roosevelt New Deal political plan of “Tax, Spend, Elect.”

Just take a look at the stark, revealing numbers about U.S. government spending:
[attachimg=1]

Now compare U.S. and Greek deficits prompted by big spending politicians and selfish political demands:
[attachimg=2]

The End Is Near

The plain truth is that the United States government is very close to bankruptcy – and the politicians of both parties who refuse to act to solve this national crisis are morally bankrupt.

The final reckoning day is soon at hand, the day when China, Singapore and all the other investors stop propping up the U.S. Then the game will end — with a resounding crash. You think those riots in the streets of Athens can’t happen here? Folks, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet!

When that happens, (and at this rate in wont take a decade), U.S. Treasury bonds and Washington’s credit rating will be worth little more than those faked document piles of subprime mortgages issued by greedy bankers at UBS, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Citibank and the Bank of America.

When that day comes who will bail out profligate America? And most importantly, where will you be then?

Isn’t it about time you moved some of your cash and asset offshore to a country where it (and you) will be safe — rather than sorry?

The Sovereign Society can tell you how and can help you do it. Don’t wait until Obama and his gang jam the exits to freedom.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 19, 2012, 11:39:10 AM
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget_pie_gs.php

The table shows overall budgeted federal expenditures from the president’s budget for major functions for the specified fiscal year. Also included are estimates of state and local spending.

You can use controls on the table to change from display of nationwide spending data to individual states. You can change the year or to drill down to view more detailed spending information. You can also view the spending data as percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Click the button at the right of each line of the table to display a bar chart of government spending. Click a button at the base of each column for a bar chart or pie chart. You can right click on the chart image to copy and paste it into your own content. Click the image to close the chart display.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 19, 2012, 11:49:13 AM
Where to weather the storm:

White States Good - Dark Blue States Bad...

[attachimg=1]


[attachimg=2]
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 25, 2012, 09:57:04 AM
Very interesting economics blogger:

https://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2010/08/13/monetarily-sovereign-the-key-to-understanding-economics/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on February 29, 2012, 10:40:17 AM

i've been tailing off posting financial info here as this thread seems to have tailed off, but long story short; i'm predicting a recession in 2013. all the info i read says no real recover in housing or jobs and the ECRI confirmed its recession call last week.

thought i'd pass along this though. if youre a follower of just how apple is becoming a monster of a company, this graphic shows the market caps of the largest american companies going back to 1925.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/how-many-companies-have-been-the-largest/ (http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/how-many-companies-have-been-the-largest/)

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 29, 2012, 10:43:12 AM
What is the Fed really up to?
http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2012/02/03/ben-bernankes-amazing-testimony-of-lies-to-congress/

Ben Bernanke’s amazing testimony of lies to Congress Friday, Feb 3 2012

One wonders what Ben Bernanke’s motives are. Of all people on earth, he should understand Monetary Sovereignty, and often he shows signs of getting it. Then he comes out with the most blatant, ridiculous stories, and I can’t imagine why.

Here’s an example in yesterday’s CNBC on-line article:

Rising Deficits Pose Major Threat to Economy: Bernanke
Thursday, 2 Feb 2012, By: Jeff Cox, CNBC.com Senior Writer

Rising federal budget deficits are posing a significant threat to the U.S. economy and are likely to cause a crisis if not brought under control, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Thursday.

Calling the situation “unsustainable,” the central bank leader pointed out that surging health-care costs, along with the high level of government spending used to pull the economy out of recession, are creating fiscal hazard.

“Having a large and increasing level of government debt relative to national income runs the risk of serious economic consequences,” Bernanke told the House Budget Committee. “Over the longer term, the current trajectory of federal debt threatens to crowd out private capital formation and thus reduce productivity growth.”

This is wrong to the extreme. Tellingly, he doesn’t say exactly what the “significant threat,” “financial hazard” or “serious economic consequences” would be.

Will the U.S. be unable to service its debt? No, being Monetarily Sovereign, the U.S. has the unlimited ability to service any debt of any size.

Is he worried about inflation? No, in fact he has promised to keep interest rates near zero, which is a signal he is more worried about deflation.

He never says what the threat, hazard or consequences will be, because there are none. He simply is lying.

And so far as “federal debt threatening to crowd out private capital formation,” this is lie #2. Federal deficits add dollars to the economy, and these added dollars facilitate private capital formation. There is no known mechanism for federal spending to crowd out private capital formation.

At the same time, he also warned Congress not to pull the reins too tightly so as to threaten growth.

That covers his butt on both sides of the question. No matter what Congress does, and what the outcome is, Bernanke always can say, “See, I told you so. You spent too much” (or “You pulled the reins too tightly.”)

The Fed’s balance sheet stands at $2.9 trillion, swelled by purchases of assets such as Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The goal of quantitative easing has been to bring down interest rates and encourage investors away from low-yielding fixed-income vehicles and into higher risk such as stocks and real estate.

The Fed always has set interest rates by fiat. It doesn’t need QE for that purpose. Instead, the Fed’s purpose was to add dollars to the economy, the very thing Bernanke warns Congress not to do. And can you imagine Bernanke now telling the nation to invest in higher risk securities, encouraging the speculation he previously has blamed for the recession? It’s beyond belief.

Bernanke has begun, more and more, to channel his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, by speaking in tongues, so that no one can understand what he’s saying. Unfortunately, like Greenspan, he is doing the nation a major disservice by not telling the truth.

The Fed gets far too much credit and far to much blame for the economy. It is only a bit player to the real stars of the the show: Congress and the President. Congress loves to cover its own butt by ragging on the Fed for Congress’s own errors, and Bernanke is a handy whipping boy. But the Fed does have the power to educate with authority, and if only Bernanke would, at long last, come out and speak the truth. Ah, if only.

One wonders, what are his motives for lying? Is he so fearful for his job, he will say whatever his bosses expect?

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on February 29, 2012, 10:44:08 AM
The real root of inflation:

Federal deficit spending doesn’t cause inflation; oil does   http://rodgermmitchell.wordpress.com/2010/04/06/more-thoughts-on-inflation/

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on March 05, 2012, 08:31:37 AM
Looks like French want to institute at 75% Income tax on high end earners and Brussels seeks to implement Greek Austerity Across the EU including Ireland and the PIIGS.

Only UK and CR had the sense to abstain with of course the SWISS who want no part of the European Impoverishment Union:

French lobster leaders debate best way to pull their economy down Sunday, Mar 4 2012

The following WSJ article brings to mind the old saw about why lobsters never can get out of a pail. As soon as one starts to climb up, the others pull it down.

Wall Street Journal, February 29, 2012
French Front-Runner Pledges 75% Tax Bracket
By Gabrielle Parussini

PARIS—French presidential front-runner François Hollande said taxpayers earning over €1 million ($1.35 million) a year would be subjected to a special 75% tax bracket should he be elected, underscoring heightened interest across Europe in raising taxes on the wealthiest individuals.

“It’s a message of social cohesion….It’s a matter of patriotism,” he told journalists on his way in to Paris’s annual agriculture fair.”

Across Europe, the idea of raising taxes on high-income earners began to burgeon three years ago, when the Continent started to descend into recession. In 2009, the U.K. government increased its top marginal income-tax rate to 50% from 40%. In the U.S., the top 1% of earners have been the target of widespread protests under the umbrella of the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Mr. Sarkozy’s government has already slapped a 3% temporary levy on high revenue to be applied to those with a taxable income exceeding €500,000 a year.

Revenue disparity, which has been on the rise in most industrialized economies since the 1980s, has remained relatively contained in France, according to an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development study published in December. The top 1% taxpayers in France earn less than half the average earned by the top 1% in the U.S.

The Monetarily Sovereign U.S. destroys tax money upon receipt. The monetarily non-sovereign France spends tax money. French tax money flows through the government’s hands, back out into the economy.

While the U.S. government is a creator and destroyer of its sovereign currency, the dollar, the French government is only a conduit for its non-sovereign currency, the euro. Few people, including most economists, politicians and media writers understand this difference.

Hypothetically, raising the tax rate on the rich could be an effective way for a monetarily non-sovereign government to close the gap between the 1% and the 99%. (A Monetarily Sovereign goverenment could do it simply by giving money to the 99%.)

However, to the degree French debt is owned by outsiders, debt service reduces the nation’s total money supply, negatively affecting GDP growth. France cannot overcome this the way the U.S. does – by creating money ad hoc as it pays its bills.

When any government takes from its citizens to pay foreign debt, those taxes temporarily mask a serious problem: Domestic money loss. The government can appear to be prudent, while its economy suffers austerity.

Seemingly, this is what the EU leaders want: Support the public sector at the expense of the private sector. That is why they urge the PIIGS to reduce government debt by increasing private debt (i.e. raising taxes), while offering to lend more euros to the “offending” nations.

The combination of more taxes and more outside borrowing, leads to recessions, while giving the false appearance of a government being financially wise. Whether the euro nations’ leaders want this consciously – these leaders are, after all, creatures of the public sector – or do it out of ignorance, the effect is the same: Deeper and deeper recession, with the reason hidden, thus preventing positive efforts to cure the recession (“We already are doing everything we can.”)

If France is to remain monetarily non-sovereign (a terrible, but likely, path), it never should borrow from outsiders. If 100% of France’s debt were domestic, all tax increases to support debt service, merely would recirculate euros within France, thus delaying the inevitable bankruptcy all monetarly non-sovereign governments face, if their balance of payments is negative.

Of course, the above begs the question: Is it economically wise or morally fair to take away 75% of anyone’s marginal income? The rich are not stupid, you know.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com

European Union keeps applying leeches to cure anemia. If Ireland refuses to starve, withhold food. Friday, Mar 2 2012

The EU continues to demonstrate cluelessness about the differences between Monetarily Sovereign nations and monetarily non-sovereign nations. All the more remarkable: This ignorance is shared by most of the greatest economics minds in the world.

Yahoo Finance
European states sign new fiscal treaty, kicking off potentially difficult ratification process
By Gabriele Steinhauser, AP Business Writer

BRUSSELS (AP) — The leaders of 25 European countries on Friday signed a new treaty designed to prevent the 17 members of the eurozone from living beyond their means and avoid a repeat of the region’s crippling debt crisis.

Translation: Because austerity has accomplished nothing good, and has created poverty, misery and pain wherever it has been administered, the 17 euro nations, all monetarily non-sovereign, have agreed to force themselves into more severe austerity.

The leaders hope the rules for budget discipline set out in the accord, known as the fiscal compact, will also lead to closer political and economic integration in the eurozone.

Translation: The ship is sinking, so let’s all drown, together.

Only Britain and the Czech Republic decided not to sign the agreement, a move that triggered concern over a rift in the 27-country European Union.

Translation: Britain and the Czech Republic are Monetarily Sovereign. They use their own currency, so have no need for austerity. Yet, they are the only ones that can see the idiocy of the EU plan. Remarkable.

Many Europeans have grown weary of the EU and the euro. Two years of painful austerity in the poorer countries have taken their economic toll, while many in the richer countries are getting frustrated over funding the expensive bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Others fear that the tighter spending rules will limit governments’ room to maneuver in tough economic times and force German-style fiscal discipline on countries with vastly different economies and cultures. However, the new deficit limits make some exceptions, such as for severe recessions and other unexpected economic circumstances.

Translation: Austerity causes poverty, misery and pain. The people understand that; their leaders don’t. The recession we have is not “severe” enough and anyway, we “expected” all these horrifying economic circumstances. (Well, we really didn’t, because we don’t understand Monetary Sovereignty. But don’t tell anyone. We don’t want to look stupid.)

The economic outlook is darkening. Unemployment is at a record high and several countries are forecast to fall back into recession this year, yet the EU leaders were hesitant to back off the austerity policies that have dominated their response to the debt crisis and are now being blamed for the economic downturn.

Translation: You mean austerity doesn’t work, cannot work and never will work? O.K., let’s do more of it.

“We remain in a fragile situation,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned. “The crisis is far from over.”

Translation: We’re swimming in the middle of the ocean, without life jackets. The EU is pouring water on our heads, and sharks are circling. Yep, this crisis is far from over.

The biggest challenge may lie in Ireland . . . This time, EU leaders have ensured that Irish voters cannot block the fiscal pact. Unlike earlier treaties, this one does not require unanimous support to become law. It will come into force once 12 of the eurozone’s 17 members ratify it.

An Irish rejection would chiefly undermine Ireland’s own ability to keep paying its bills. The fiscal treaty proposes to prevent any abstaining eurozone countries from receiving loans from the eurozone’s future financial backstop, the European Stability Mechanism.

Translation: The nerve of those Irish, rejecting the poverty, misery and pain that our “solutions” always cause. We’ll show them. We’ll add to their poverty, misery and pain.

Economists believe Ireland may require a new round of loan aid in 2013 once its current flow of EU-International Monetary Fund bailout funds runs out.

Ireland in November 2010 negotiated a euro67.5 billion ($89.5 billion) EU-IMF credit line and has received euro48 billion ($63.5 billion) so far at an average interest rate of 3.3 percent. The current depressed value of Irish government bonds suggests that, were Ireland to return to normal long-term borrowing today, it would have to pay investors at least double that rate.

Translation: Ireland is starved for money. Being monetarily non-sovereign, plus having a negative balance of payments, they have no way to generate the money to save their economic lives. So let’s withhold money, then blame them for lack of fiscal prudence. So far, the world has been stupid enough to buy that idea.

=============================================================================================

Wait a minute. Before you smirk, that is exactly the idea our “balance-the-budget, cut-the-deficit” politicians and media have been foisting on the American public. They want us to function as though we were monetarily non-sovereign, institute austerity, and become Ireland.

Ah, faith and begorrah.

Rodger Malcolm Mitchell
http://www.rodgermitchell.com
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on April 10, 2012, 01:16:33 PM


For the gold and silver bugs, from here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-and-silver-go-vertical

"Are investors rotating from the 'safety' of Apple to the new 'safety' of Gold and Silver? Because the next time there is a wholesale margin call, which courtesy of soaring margin debt will likely be today, speculators will have to sell the one asset that is outperforming everything. You guessed it..."


Looks like gold and silver are set to jump on any correction from here on out. The local financial show i listen to in Houston says we hadnt started the normal summer correction yet; but probably within a month; we will. they figure a 2 - 3 week rally following this correction and then the summer correction. could be a real good time to buy or add some gold or silver.

hope that helps.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on April 11, 2012, 07:10:57 PM
Any day traders amongst the RUA members and lurkers?  If so take a look at YELP on the NYSE. It's a company that is an online urban city guide that helps people find places to eat, shop, drink, relax, and play based on the informed opinions of a community of locals in the know. It did an IPO a couple of months ago that really hasn't go anywhere and probably won't.  The stock is very volatile and has wide swings during a session and can move up and down by 5% or more a week.  I'd be careful trading it and probably wouldn't hold it overnight but if you know how to day trade and need to make the rent or a mortgage payment YELP might be the answer you need.   :money: :money:  :money: :money: :money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YELP&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

(http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=YELP&t=5d&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on April 12, 2012, 09:28:45 AM
Cool, i'll check it out.

I'm no day trader, but i'll play a little money on the mkt swings just cause i love the markets so; its so facinating. day traders lose about 95% of the time, historically.

what i do is go long - spy and short - sh, the s+p mkt. for instance, i shorted some last week as the correction started and then went long some when the s+p held support at 1360; looking to probably short again for the summer sell off after 1400.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on April 16, 2012, 06:13:57 AM
(ECYT) SWEET!  :money:  :party0031: Double
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 14, 2012, 12:05:15 PM
just an update from our local financial show, streettalklive.com on gold for the gold bugs since gold has been dropping big time recently.

they said that this is still working off the parabolic move up and is currently in 10 months of a 12-18 months sell off. they also said that that buying anywhere in 1500-1600 is a good idea; theyre not expecting it to drop below 1500 before it resumes going up to anywhere between 2100 and 3000; depending upon how long it takes the world to get its financial act together.

and fyi, they also issued their summer sell signal for the stop mkt and are expecting anything from an additional drop from 10 to 15% from dow at 12700.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on May 14, 2012, 06:41:17 PM
The Facebook IPO is Friday, May 18th.  No small investor is going to get in on the IPO but there might be a way to make money off the IPO. Zynga, Inc. makes apps for Facebook and other websites.  Zynga's IPO was several months ago and the stock price really hasn't gone nowhere, in fact its current price is below the IPO price. Now may be the time for Zynga will soar or at go back to its IPO price which would be a 25% increase over its current price.   Up $0.47(6.28%) to $7.95 today.


Source (http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AoSFuILOSD7m1B5cTvax7JmiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTIxdnI2NWtyBG1pdANXaWRlIFF1b3RlcyBNb2R1bGUEcG9zAzE5BHNlYwNNZWRpYVJlY2VudFF1b3Rlc1BvcnRmb2xpb3NXaWRl;_ylg=X3oDMTJmZ2I0NTZoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QDTWFya2V0VXBkYXRlX0Fib3ZlX0xSRUM-;_ylv=3?s=ZNGA)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 14, 2012, 07:42:21 PM
"Getcha Groupon, Getcha Groupon, Getcha Goupon"
Actually reported a profit, and beat Revs.
And up goes (GRPN) off the basement floor!
Slaps Ali in the face and grabs the shorts by the :censored: and SKAHWEEEZES! The Fast Monkeys feel the shorts' pain so they pump their Groupon after hours!  :laugh:  :nod: 
Anybody need a translation?  :chuckle:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/grpn
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GRPN/tab/2
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 14, 2012, 08:06:18 PM
Facebook Raises IPO Price Range to $34-38 per Share
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47421520
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 14, 2012, 08:14:06 PM
Facebook Raises IPO Price Range to $34-38 per Share
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47421520

Read it has been oversubscribed - Goldman Merrill BA doing a good pump job curious if it will be a pump and dump or rocket to the moon - hard to tell - unlike the old dot com dot bombs FB did earn nearly 4 Billion last year - after the IPO it will have to rocket earnings 5 times to match Googles valuation metrics - remains to be seen how well MZ and the FB crew can monetize their social graph "connections".  Google is on track for $40B in earnings this year even though CPCs dropped (really just econ 101 CPC prices come down and volume goes up) The on line ads market is huge and booming so we will see how well the FB team monetizes and competes with the Googlers.
Title: GM dumps all over Zuck's stinkin face.
Post by: VIP on May 15, 2012, 02:40:35 PM
(GM) pulling adds from Fecesbook (FB). (FB) adds viewed as ineffective.
In other words; Fecesbook adds are worthless.
I am not surprised that the idiots a GM were waisting money there.
But at least they are learning.  :chuckle:
Dan Niles says; "SELL (FB)" ! I think he even said to short it @70 if....
No, I don't recommend anybody here to short it.
But if I get some IPO shares:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 15, 2012, 05:30:15 PM
Real easy to compare FB - just look at Goog = $10B+ Q1 2012 Revenues on track to do $40B+ for all of 2012 - yet FB did approx $4B in all of 2011 yet FB is rumored to see a Market Cap of nearly $100B oor roughly have of Goog with ONE TENTH the revenue - not to mention retained earnings - MZ at FB will find he best care about GM ads staying if he does not want to become a constant target of shareholder lawsuits - time for young MZ to mature now.

If FB hits a market cap of $100B it will be the largest Goldman Sux Merrilled the shareholders er ah um IPO pumpees and Lynchedem BofA PUMP AND DUMP in history.  I would rather invest in Pinterest reported to be driving MORE referrals to businesses than LinkedIn Google+ and Twitter combined - now that would be a platform to advertise on if I was Marketing SVP at GM and any other auto maker.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 17, 2012, 02:01:43 PM
(FB) prices @38
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 18, 2012, 09:18:35 AM


I think until FB figures out to put adds on your updates page that everyone checks so often; theyre going to do poorly.

since so many people just check their updates page from their phone, they never see the ads.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on May 18, 2012, 09:48:56 AM
Facebook opens at $42.05/share and immediately begins to drop. It was suppose to start trading at 11:00 but didn't begin trading until about 11:30 AM.  The delay was apparently due to the large volume of shares and demand. Currently seems to have settled at about $39.00/share. Still haven't bought any shares, I would have thought with the demand, it was reported to be over subscribed 20 to 1, that it would have started rising immediately after trading began.

One of the stocks associated with FB, Zynga, Inc, is down more than 13% and has stopped trading.

Edit: FB has dropped to $38/share and seems to be holding. CNN is saying that the brokerage houses that are underwriting FB shares are buying shares to keep the stock from dropping below its announced opening price which would be an embarrassment for the underwriters.  Definitely not what Mark Zuckerberg wanted to happen.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 18, 2012, 01:55:28 PM
(FB) Everybody knows the syndicate is there supporting @38, but they are still dumping all ovah the banker's stinkin face.
Would probably be 28 without that fake support
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on May 18, 2012, 02:15:03 PM
(FB) Everybody knows the syndicate is there supporting @38, but they are still dumping all ovah the banker's stinkin face.
Would probably be 28 without that fake support

It was the IPO underwriters that were making sure FB didn't go below $38/share.  It would be embarrassing for the underwriters if the price dropped below $38/share because the underwriters determined that was the best entry point for the stock.  Wait till Monday, when trading resumes the IPO underwriters won't be offering any support for FB and more importantly the short sellers will be in the market, then the public will see what happens to the stock.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 18, 2012, 02:44:02 PM
(FB) Everybody knows the syndicate is there supporting @38, but they are still dumping all ovah the banker's stinkin face.
Would probably be 28 without that fake support

It was the IPO underwriters that were making sure FB didn't go below $38/share.  It would be embarrassing for the underwriters if the price dropped below $38/share because the underwriters determined that was the best entry point for the stock.  Wait till Monday, when trading resumes the IPO underwriters won't be offering any support for FB and more importantly the short sellers will be in the market, then the public will see what happens to the stock.
Yes, it's called the "syndicate bid". Legal for the underwriters (Bankers) to manipulate stocks but not legal for others to manipulate stocks.
I will be able to short Tuesday if all is normal. 
One big problem for (FB) is; many people got all that they bid on. People (funds etc..) bid on maybe 10 times what they really wanted, then got all that they bidded for.  :nod:
The "syndicate" could still be there Monday, but they can only take so much pain.  ;D
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 18, 2012, 06:26:17 PM
In my above comparison  to Google - FB (closed at a remarkable $106.4B market cap) really should be - at basically one tenth the earnings of Google - and so FB should be one tenth of Googles market cap of $195B today so FB should be about $19.5B Mkt Cap instead that is what MZ's share was worth today! Classic Goldman Pump and Dump that is priced 5 times what it is comparably worth - the greed in Wall Street and the US Gov and SEC which gets a nice chuck of all the Cap Gains trades taxes not not mention ordinary income short term buy and sells (dumps) taxes is breathtaking in its audacity.  Clearly GS-ML/BoA looking to bolster their merchant banking income statements on this one IPO alone.  Pure corruption that the average facebook user was not allowed to by an honestly priced share or two.  It would be one thing to overprice the shares by 10% or so - but by 500% is bold faced corruption and setting up a short sell as soon as the hedge funds fell market forces versus syndicate manipulation is at hand.

And MZ is disdainful of FB advertising as basically a necessary evil whereas Goog income was up Q1 2011 to Q1 2012 over 25% Year over Year - clearly Adwords still the only place in town for sales and marketing dept heads that have to make their sales numbers with no excuses.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: WestCoast on May 18, 2012, 07:59:38 PM
The Facebook billionaire nobody is talking about.  Priscilla Chan is Mark Zuckerberg's long time girlfriend and whether she knows it or not she just became a billionaire today. Chan met Zuckerberg at Harvard and has been with him ever since.  On May 14th she earned her medical degree from from University of California, San Francisco's School of Medicine, and membership into the exclusive National Medical Honor Society. According to none other than Donald Trump Chan has earned herself a large portion of Zuckerberg's fortune if they were ever to split, even if they never marry.   

http://shine.yahoo.com/secrets-to-your-success/facebook-billionaires-girlfriend-priscilla-chan-big-week-too-193200386.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on May 19, 2012, 02:52:05 PM
(FB) prices @38

End of the day $38,27  -  heard it needed support during the first trading day!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 21, 2012, 07:42:36 AM
(FB) prices @38

End of the day $38,27  -  heard it needed support during the first trading day!
Looked like the bankers tried to support @35 today.
Now it's low 34s.  :party0011:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on May 21, 2012, 07:55:38 AM
(FB) prices @38

End of the day $38,27  -  heard it needed support during the first trading day!
Looked like the bankers tried to support @35 today.
Now it's low 34s.  :party0011:

Not really my sort of stock but around $25 maybe $ 28 - I would purchase some stock. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 21, 2012, 08:12:26 AM
(FB) prices @38

End of the day $38,27  -  heard it needed support during the first trading day!
Looked like the bankers tried to support @35 today.
Now it's low 34s.  :party0011:

Not really my sort of stock but around $25 maybe $ 28 - I would purchase some stock.
Just so you know: I'm cheering for it to go to ZERO, and kill the banks.
Of coure it's not going to zero, but 20s would be nice.
I hope all the humans are out already.  :)
Maybe I will have a borrow tomorrow.  :nod:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 21, 2012, 05:10:39 PM
Will need a few 10K and 10Q reports to see if young MZ will actually give a whit about shareholders and start building up the FB advertising book - look at the FB iPhone app - no mobile ads at all - then how do they make money with the fastest growing segment of web users iphones and android smart phones?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on May 22, 2012, 03:11:16 AM
The Facebook billionaire nobody is talking about.  Priscilla Chan is Mark Zuckerberg's long time girlfriend and whether she knows it or not she just became a billionaire today. Chan met Zuckerberg at Harvard and has been with him ever since.  On May 14th she earned her medical degree from from University of California, San Francisco's School of Medicine, and membership into the exclusive National Medical Honor Society. According to none other than Donald Trump Chan has earned herself a large portion of Zuckerberg's fortune if they were ever to split, even if they never marry.   

http://shine.yahoo.com/secrets-to-your-success/facebook-billionaires-girlfriend-priscilla-chan-big-week-too-193200386.html

Mark made an honest woman of Priscilla ~ it seems he started dating her about ten years ago, she is now 27 years old.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 22, 2012, 05:27:10 AM
Fortunately for MZ his new wife is an MD with earnings potential...

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/as-facebooks-stock-struggles-fingers-start-pointing/?ref=technology

Got to love free markets - pricing FB at 5 times the comparative share value to earnings than Google which is not a cheap stock itself has turned out to be a bust out on wall street and the biggest Wall Street tech pump up and dump in recent tech history - in the old Days JP Morgan personally underwrote every stock he took public and would personally make good if any of his companies flopped - this is why he was so successful - the modern incarnations Goldman Sux and Morgan Stanley priced the IPO so high that it closed at $34.03 yesterday well below the IPO price of $38.00  - pure greed when it was originally priced at $28 which would have left a small bit of value in it for the IPO investors. 

The new crowd funding law can't become active soon enough at least then some of the actual early users of a site or technology might be able to get in before the Banksters sink their teeth into the deal - even Google only went public a 8 times earnings - which would have been an FB market cap of $32 Billion and not the lofty $104B or 25 times earnings.  The current SEC approved IPO process is clearly designed to benefit and protect the Banketeers IPO pop racket with no regard for shareholders.

This should also be a warning for tee and hoodie wearing MZ that now that he has become a multi billion public corporation he has a fiduciary responsibility to ALL of his shareholders and perhaps it is time to present himself and his lightning in a bottle company like they are in fact a real business with an eye on profits and losses and the bottom line. 

What could have been a glorious IPO has turned into a disgraceful greed-fest bust out with IPO buyers now down 10% and the markets have spoken.   Long live the free markets.  Lets see what FB does for actual earnings growth moving forward.  Otherwise MZ could be spending a few of his billions defending and or settling shareholder lawsuits.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 22, 2012, 09:38:07 PM
Looks like i am not the only one questioning the Facebook IPO - turns out the MA Attorney Generals office is hopping on the FB IPO Criminal Investigation:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sec-and-finra-are-going-to-investigate-the-facebook-ipo-2012-5?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

Boston evening news reported tonight that a memo was circulated internally by a Morgan Stanley exec prior to the IPO (that is illegal - tell everyone OR no one but not a select internal memo list) that the fundamentals of FB were deteriorating and to be cautious about the IPO which is now spiraling downwards from $104B market cap to less than $60B today anyone holding this pig better have plenty of lipstick can you spell nightmare for MZ?

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Saks have pumped and now those holding the bag are dumping and the State AG's are investigation - talk about a baptism by fire for young MZ this is a PR disaster - Google must be licking their Chops.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 22, 2012, 09:51:28 PM
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Investors+Nasdaq+Facebook+over/6662476/story.html

File Under What were they Thinking?

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc has been sued by an investor who claimed the exchange operator was negligent in handling orders for Facebook Inc shares following its initial public offering, causing losses for investors.

In addition, a different civil lawsuit was filed against Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, IPO underwriters Morgan Stanley & Co and others alleging violations of securities laws.

Phillip Goldberg, a Maryland resident, is seeking class-action status on behalf of all investors who lost money because Nasdaq delayed or otherwise mishandled their buy, sell or cancellation orders for Facebook stock on May 18, the day the social networking company went public.

A technical glitch delayed Facebook’s market debut by roughly half an hour, and later delayed order confirmations.

Nasdaq Chief Executive Robert Greifeld told investors at his company’s annual meeting on Tuesday that “clearly we had mistakes in the Facebook listing,” but more than 570 million shares were processed on the first day.

Goldberg filed his lawsuit on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

SHARES SLIDE

Separately, investor Darryl Lazar filed a proposed class-action lawsuit in a California state court, alleging that Facebook’s registration and prospectus were materially false, according to a statement from plaintiff law firm Glancy Binkow & Goldberg.

Reuters reported late on Monday that the consumer Internet analyst at lead underwriter Morgan Stanley cut his revenue forecasts for Facebook in the days before the offering, information that may not have reached many investors before the stock was listed.

Representatives from Facebook and Morgan Stanley could not immediately be reached for comment on the securities class-action.

Facebook shares sank on Monday and Tuesday -- their second and third days of trading -- to end at $31, more than 18 percent below the initial public offering price of $38.

The Nasdaq case is Goldberg v. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 12-04054.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Investors+Nasdaq+Facebook+over/6662476/story.html#ixzz1vf4ImvVi
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 23, 2012, 11:37:02 AM
New tgt on (FB) $9.50 by Starmine
Still no borrow for me.  >:(
Options should come Tuesday.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 23, 2012, 02:14:31 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Short sellers desperate to bet against Facebook shortly after its debut on public markets are now getting their chance.

Shares of the much-anticipated IPO have fallen sharply since they opened at $42.05 on Friday amid an initial flurry of trading problems at the Nasdaq and after news that top underwriters cut their revenue estimates just days before the offering.

Yet, short sellers are still eager to bet against the stock given its lofty valuation.

Facebook shares were up 3.1 percent to $31.97 on Wednesday, still down 16 percent from their $38 IPO price. Interest from short-sellers was high, but as more shares became available to borrow, the cost was decreasing.

"Right now it's unlimited demand - everybody is looking for it because everybody initially wants to put the short on," said a lending agent at a securities lending agency, which finds shares for brokers to borrow to lend to hedge funds and other clients.

Short sellers borrow shares and sell them in the open market. They aim to buy the shares back at a lower price, return them to the borrower and pocket the difference.

"I believe this will change pretty dramatically over the next couple of days," the agent said.

The cost to borrow the stock varied from 5 percent to 50 percent on an annualized basis, according to several securities lending sources and hedge fund managers trying to borrow the stock.

That is far in excess of so-called "general collateral" stocks, which lend at a few basis points, but below other recent Internet IPOs, such as those of Groupon or LinkedIn, which carried such expensive annual borrowing costs that the only way to profitably bet against them was to do so for at most a few days.

Automated Equity Finance Markets, a securities lending agency in New York, said the cost to borrow Facebook stock on Wednesday was below a 10 percent annualized rate, for a theoretical cost of less than $3 to short a $30 stock for a year.

One prime broker intending to borrow stock on behalf of hedge fund clients on Wednesday paid an annualized rate in the mid-20 percent range, the lending agent said.

"This is a very interesting situation," said the lending agent, who asked not to be named as his company does not talk about individual companies. "Every hedge fund or person making a decision on the short has their own idea on this right now. It's going to settle into a market, but it hasn't settled in yet."

Short sellers of LinkedIn had to borrow at a cost of 11 percent to 99 percent in its first three months of trading, although not many shares traded at the top end of the range, according to Automated Equity Finance Markets, a securities lending platform.

Borrowers of Groupon faced a range of 20 percent to 85 percent while short sellers of Zynga paid 2 percent to 44 percent in the first three months, according to Automated Equity Finance Markets.

Data Explorers, a firm that tracks short-selling data, ranks Facebook's stock a 10 in terms of its cost to borrow on a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is the most expensive. No S&P 500 stocks have a rating of 10, Data Explorers said.

Wednesday marks the first day that Facebook's securities are officially on loan due to the three-day settlement rule for U.S. securities. However, some managers began shorting the stock shortly after trading started on Friday.

"We got a small allocation in the IPO and sold it immediately and then shorted on Friday and Monday," said one hedge fund manager, who said he went short without knowing the cost of borrowing.

When contacted by Reuters on Wednesday morning, the manager said he was told by his broker that he was charged a negative rebate of 55 percent. On Friday and Monday, Facebook shares were hard to borrow because there was a limited supply of the stock to lend, he said.

Now, the supply of Facebook shares to borrow has increased a lot, reducing the cost.

"There's a huge amount of supply now, especially lots of retail supply," the hedge fund manager added, noting that he was planning to hold his short position.

"There's a lot of bad news and finger-pointing around this and the markets are still weak," he said.

Approximately 18 million shares of Facebook's stock were on loan for short selling as of May 22, according to Data Explorers. Facebook shares on loan for short sellers represent about 4 percent of the free float, though that figure will change as more data becomes available in coming days.

Facebook's stock has fallen as low as $30.94, or 19 percent below its IPO price of $38, and more than 30 percent from a peak of $45 reached shortly after it started trading Friday.

The drop on Tuesday came after Reuters reported that underwriters had cut their revenue estimates for the stock shortly before the IPO, a highly unusual move.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 25, 2012, 09:53:05 AM

Figured this should go here: "Bank Of Russia To Buy “Considerable Figure" Of Gold Tonnage In 2012"

Thought this was interesting as to why:

"Today, the deputy chairman of Russia's central bank, Sergey Shvetsov, said that the Bank of Russia plans to keep buying gold on the domestic market in order to diversify their foreign exchange reserves."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-russia-buy-%E2%80%9Cconsiderable-figure-gold-tonnage-2012
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 25, 2012, 02:35:22 PM
CHK   Icahn discloses 7.56% stake in Chesapaeke Energy (CHK)
That was @15:58 EST  $15.86    Now $16.05  @16:34
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 27, 2012, 10:08:25 AM
What to do with all that gold:

Best US Cities for Real Estate Deals Spring 2012:

When it’s not a seller’s market, it could be a bright side for buyers. So where are the markets with the most bargains for home buyers on a budget? To find out, the data team at the real estate website Zillow looked at several factors, including the percentage of listings with price cuts, the median amount of those price cuts, the sale-to-list price ratio (or how much lower the sale price was from the last list price), and at foreclosure resales in places where foreclosure data was available (all data was the most recent available, from March 2012).   

All told, the team considered 137 metropolitan areas. What follows are the 10 areas in five states that had the best numbers across those criteria. Of course, factors contributing to the buyers’ markets can include higher-than-average unemployment rates for the area and other economic woes. As with all real estate purchases, buyers in these metro areas will have many factors to consider.

By Colleen Kane
Posted 17 May 2012


1. Rockford, Ill.
Median price cut:  8%

Listings with price cut:  39.5%

The percentage of real estate listings with a price cut in northern Illinois’ Rockford metropolitan area has increased by 5.6 percent over last year. However, as with all of the cities on this list, there are drawbacks to living in areas where these real estate deals can be had: Rockford residents were coping with a higher-than-average 11.7 percent unemployment rate in March.

2. Punta Gorda, Fla.
Median price cut:  7.6%

Listings with price cut:  36.4%

The Punta Gorda metropolitan area marks Florida’s third Gulf Coast appearance on this list. The percentage of real estate listings with a price cut has increased by nearly 8 percent over last year.

3. Cleveland
Median price cut:  7.3%

Listings with price cut:  35.5%

Cleveland is situated in northeastern Ohio on Lake Erie. The Greater Cleveland area, including the cities of Parma, Lorain, Elyria, Lakewood, Euclid, Mentor and Cleveland Heights, showed a 26 percent rate of foreclosure resales.

4. Chicago
Median price cut:  7.2%

Listings with price cut:  38.1%

The metropolitan area of Chicago, the nation’s third-most populous city, had a median sale-to-list-price ratio of 0.947 percent.

5. Sarasota, Fla.
Median price cut:  6.8%

Listings with price cut: 34.2%

The metropolitan area of North Port Bradenton-Sarasota, midway down Florida’s Gulf Coast, is made up of the cities of North Port, Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice. The percentage of real estate listings with a price cut has increased by just over 5 percent from last year.

6. Naples, Fla.
Median price cut:  6.7%

Listings with price cut:  33.7%

The Naples metropolitan area is on Florida’s southeastern Gulf Coast and borders the Everglades National Park. The percentage of real estate listings with a price cut has increased by nearly 5 percent over last year.

7. Providence, R.I.
Median price cut:  6.7%

Listings with price cut:  36.7%

The metropolitan area of Providence extends from Rhode Island into neighboring Massachusetts. It includes Rhode Island’s capital city as well as Warwick and the Massachusetts cities of New Bedford and Fall River. The rate of foreclosure resales is comparatively low for this list, at 9.2 percent.

8. Akron, Ohio
Median price cut:  6.5%

Listings with price cut:  33.9%

The Rust Belt city of Akron, Ohio’s fifth-largest city, is 40 miles south of Cleveland and Lake Erie. The Akron metropolitan area has a 27.8 percent rate of foreclosure resales.

9. New London, Conn.
Median price cut:  6.5%

Listings with price cut:  36.6%

New London is a seaport community of just under six square miles on Connecticut’s Thames River and the Long Island Sound. The metropolitan area has a 6.7 percent rate of foreclosure resales.

10. Dayton, Ohio
Median price cut: 6.3%

Listings with price cut: 36.4%

Ohio’s sixth-largest city is midway between Columbus and Indianapolis, and an hour north of Cincinnati. The Dayton metropolitan area has a 30 percent rate of foreclosure resales, making it the highest amount out of the cities in our top 10 where that data was available.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 29, 2012, 08:32:51 AM
FecesBook (FB) now has options.
(CHK) $16.64  +$0.83
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on May 29, 2012, 09:09:28 AM


yes, reading the daily facebbok posts on zerohedge.com has been like watching a soap opera. its very sad.

and i was nver a believer in CHK. their CEO always thought he had the golden touch and no one else thought he did.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 29, 2012, 10:03:15 AM
(FB) $29s  Sweet!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 29, 2012, 12:02:28 PM
(FB) 28s   
 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 29, 2012, 07:57:21 PM
Be careful shorting this stock it is close to market value and the knock was FB are not monetizing mobile which is now 51% of their user base - every hot chick with a smart phone iPhone or Android is checking up on her facebook friends every place I see them flock to.  It is the new way to pass notes and pics back and forth but now for 20, 30, 40 50+ somethings.

FB is taking a portion of their new found $15B in cash - hired some top apple engineers and are building a new mobile FB ecosystem with popular services like instagram - which will be hands off left to grow organically as part of the FB ecosystem and a new FB pic sharing app that will be a test platform for Mobile adverts.

So Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft-NOkia, Amazon KindleFire are all becoming more like casinos and once they have you inside their "ecosystems" they do not want to let you go!

HP, Snoracle, Sunooze, and IBM are no where to be seen here.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on May 30, 2012, 05:52:10 AM
Well now with FB down to $28.+/- a share and MZ no longer on the world's 40 Richest lists the media is savaging his decision to honeymoon in Rome which is being tracked in pictures - those who live by facebook connects die by facebook connects - no privacy - the media is having field day Mark Nero Pump'n'dumpingberg fiddles as facebook empire and stock shares burns!

Time to fire his PR team and hire a crisis manager if this company and stock is ever to recover and grow in the future - lloks like the shorts riding it down - will go down in history as how not to manage an IPO.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 31, 2012, 07:57:22 AM
fecesbook mid 27s
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 31, 2012, 01:36:15 PM
(FB) The cat stopped flushing. Now flashing green.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on May 31, 2012, 11:47:22 PM
[mod edit. Brass]
  When the cat flashes green it means BUY! But not just BUY! It means BUY and you will make instant :money:
Absolutely 99% risk free! OK, call it 90%, of course nothing is 100%.
When the cat flashed green, (FB) was 28.4s- 28.6s and it had the momo into the close do doubt! I added 10K long 28.5ish. Already had 10K @27.01.
A little later; when the trading imbalance went 4million green it was a beauty.  :knit:
 I sold all @ $29.55-29.59. Yeah, it could be 30+ early in the morning, but you know the saying, "A bird in the hand... "
Over 35K  :money:. Not a bad day.  :8)
Not a great day and nothing to retire on, but there are about 250 trading days in a year. Gnomesaine?  ;D  You Gnomesaine.  :chuckle:
[mod edit. Brass]
I don't really trade MCD much, too boring. Food sux too. Have it boycotted here in USA. But will eat MCD in FSU.
So,,,be on the watch_ _ _
for the Cat.
Oh, next time it could be a different cat. It might Roar!
Roar = flasing green. Вы понимаете?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Brasscasing on June 01, 2012, 08:34:20 AM
One post removed-trolling. One post modified-insulting comments.

Brass
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 01, 2012, 11:29:38 AM
Interesting Article about Facebook:

http://blog.comscore.com/2012/05/facebook_around_the_world_in_800_days.html

Over the last few years social networking has emerged as a truly global phenomenon, and today Facebook is known to be the favourite site of young and old across many countries around the world. The numbers speak for themselves: in March 2012, 806 million people age15+ visited Facebook.com on a worldwide basis.

In March 2007, social networks had a global audience of less than 500 million visitors, representing just 56 percent of the world’s online population. In those days, as Thomas Friedman put it, ‘Twitter’ was a sound, the ‘cloud’ was in the sky, ‘4G’ was the name of a parking space... and ‘Skype’ for most people was a typo.” Email reigned supreme as the king of communication channels online, and the word ‘friend’ was just beginning its metamorphosis from the rigid uni-dimensional noun it was to the ubiquitous, transformative verb it has become. Since then, the digital landscape has changed immensely. Social networks, which provide platforms for online users to connect, share, and build relationships with others online, have forever altered the lives of individuals, communities and societies all over the world. The growth in popularity of social networking has also created and engendered new online consumer behaviours.

Facebook has been at the forefront of the social media movement and quickly amassing users across regions and countries, helping friendships transcend borders despite any cultural differences. Local competitors often struggled to keep users engaged and prevent internet users from ‘testing’ Facebook as the world’s largest social network spread its tentacles. The more users it attracted, the more incentive existing users had to engage and participate, helping forge a strong ‘network effect’ which today makes it very difficult to for users to leave. The switching costs for the average user have become too great. With more global users continuing to join Facebook against minimal churn, it’s no surprise that Facebook now has a billion users in its sights.

Over the past 27 months, or roughly 800 days, Facebook has overtaken local competitors in 8 additional markets and is now the most popular social networking site in 39 out of the 44 countries on which comScore reports individually. Only China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam have different market leaders in terms of audience size.

Interestingly, 3 out of these 5 countries rank among the fastest growing global markets for Facebook. In Vietnam, Facebook increased its user base by 270 percent over the past year, while it grew 84 percent in Japan and 78 percent in South Korea.

In countries where Facebook’s user growth has matured, such as the US, additional growth in usage continues to come from new devices such as smartphones. The Facebook mobile app ranked within the top five apps on both iOS and Android, securing the #3 spot among iPhone users (80 percent reach) and the #5 position with Android users (69 percent reach).

For many of us, Facebook is part of the fabric of modern life – not just in one country – but around the world. So far it is the only truly global social network and there are no immediate signs of change on the horizon.

###

Point is sooner or later FB stock will find a bottom after the short term Wall Street Greedfest IPO and MZ controls not just the company but also the Voting Shares so his word and vision are law...  All MZ needs to do now is find a way to monetize his mobile apps dominance without losing market share - with $15B in cash he can hire some very bright people to do just that....  so with FB stock $27.92 and only a $59.78 B market cap - was 104 B at the IPO aw short week or so ago...  point is eventually the stock will bottom post IPO and as FB continues to grow market share via the "network effect" and begin to monetize its mobile apps and platform dominance then long term this will actually look like a buying opportunity in retrospect - one thing for sure a few more bucks may be made by the shorts but they are playing with lit dynamite sticks at this point - I definitely would not short at this point - and sit back and watch for a bottom as an entry point - every time I commute on a WiFi bus to Boston - most of the ladies and younger users are spending quite a bit of time on their FB accounts.  And 20 somethings basically live on it - FB messaging even seems to be giving SMS a run for the money along with Twitter.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on June 04, 2012, 04:53:52 AM
I agree with Cuffy, I think the future is upward with Face Book.

A couple women in Russia and Ukraine prefer to message over Face Book instead of Skype. I sort of wonder would it be possible to go short on pencil and pen manufactures?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on June 04, 2012, 06:41:37 AM
I tend to agree with everyone that Facebook will bottom out somewhere and turn into a good investment.  I do think they will continue to grow fast.

I think the part that concerns me is thier ability to monotize their popularity.  Just as GM found their ads there don't pay I do think people are so intent on other things they don't pay any attention to the ads.  I spend very little time on Facebook but when the topic of ads came up in the news I had been unaware they had ads.  In the small amount of time I spend on Facebook I have always been so busy on other things I never noticed any ads. 

I think it will be interesting to see where the bottom is.  I hear numbers as low as under $ 10.00.  I think it will be in the mid to high teens myself.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: BC on June 04, 2012, 07:37:30 AM
I tend to agree with everyone that Facebook will bottom out somewhere and turn into a good investment.  I do think they will continue to grow fast.

I think the part that concerns me is thier ability to monotize their popularity.  Just as GM found their ads there don't pay I do think people are so intent on other things they don't pay any attention to the ads.  I spend very little time on Facebook but when the topic of ads came up in the news I had been unaware they had ads.  In the small amount of time I spend on Facebook I have always been so busy on other things I never noticed any ads. 

I think it will be interesting to see where the bottom is.  I hear numbers as low as under $ 10.00.  I think it will be in the mid to high teens myself.

Somewhere in the teens is about right.  Problem is that you already find FB everywhere you go on the net.. how much more exposure can you get.  I'm already tired of it.  People that use FB  are posting and chatting and uploading pictures.. they aren't clicking advertisement despite the huge number of users.  I block FB on my computers and it really is surprising how many blanks appear in pages.

A FB browser??  A FB phone??  gotta be kidding ..
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on June 04, 2012, 12:28:20 PM
Facebook SEC pre IPO filings show nearly $4 Billion in revenue and $1B in earnings 2011 from ads - not a bad alternative to Google where the average search visit is 3 minutes and Google is generating $40 Billion in projected revenues for 2012 up 25%+ year over year Q1 and considering the average facebook user is on over 8 hours per month!

Give young MZ time to get past this IPO fustercluck and eventually sometime over the next 20 years FB will prove to be a profitable investment (based upon Global user trends anyways).

Henry Blodgett of Yahoo Finance TV agrees why would facebook want to get into the ULTRA competitive low margin Hardware biz when they have the most popular iPhone and Android apps - most likely looking at a mobile ecosystem with partnerships - will see...  one thing is for sure with 51% Mobile smart phone users and growing monetizing Mobile without alienating users is Priority Job 1 for MZ and the FB team.  Its only software they will figure it out - way too much money at stake and new investors to keep happy if they want to avoid more shareholders lawsuits.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Slumba on June 04, 2012, 12:41:02 PM
The pattern is clear, for those who want to look for it ... Friendster, MySpace, etc. all went down the same path and ended up losing market share. 

FB will not be any different in my opinion... FB has gotten to be MORE of a pain to use, not less, and the Timeline layout sucks (no other word for it). 

Ignore your users, or treat them like crap, see what happens long-term to such companies...
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on June 04, 2012, 02:11:55 PM
(FB) Cat overheated flushing fecesbook in the last 15 minutes of the main market session.
Cat is very tired.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on July 26, 2012, 02:34:45 PM
fecesbook  (FB) 23s
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: VIP on July 26, 2012, 02:48:39 PM
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 10, 2012, 10:12:32 AM


 this is getting to be a really old thread, but since it was Russia buying more gold; i figured some here would have some interest.


Sept. 5, 2012, 4:17 p.m. EDT

Why is Putin stockpiling gold?

According to the World Gold Council, Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years. Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.

link:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-putin-stockpiling-gold-2012-09-05?pagenumber=1

my thoughts on gold per the streettalklive guys here in Houston is that gold looks to be breaking out to new highs, but you might want to wait a week or two before buying as there's a lot of federal bank policies that are about to have some clarity that more money isnt coming to the markets anytime soon and that should cause a quick selloff from the disappointment before it resumes its uptrend. theyre saying 1800-200 if it resumes the uptrend.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 10, 2012, 02:36:34 PM
Perhaps Putin's staff has read these guys predictions:

Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'
By Terry Weiss, Money Morning

http://moneymorning.com/ob/economist-richard-duncan-civilization-may-not-survive-death-spiral/

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.

Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.

This presentation shows how banks are escalating the collapse... "And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."


According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."

Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries.

"What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.

"Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated.
The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings. Click on the short video above to see a sample. to see charts, facts, and details.
"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.

"For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.

"Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead.
Keith Fiz-Gerald: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism." Details here
According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way."

Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."

We can see the strain on society already.

In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.

Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.

Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics."

"If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable."

"People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 11, 2012, 09:22:58 AM

 i've been following a lot of sites that think that way cuff, just to see what happens, as even though IMO; spain, italy and greece are already in depressions and the US, europe and much of Asia has declinined in production big time; the world has still kept rolling(although at a slower pace economically).

i think the US and Canada(because its been the most fiscally responsible in the past 5 years) will weather whatever becomes of southern european countries. my prediction is another longer recession and a quicker road back as in this next one, countries  and people that did not deal withthier indebtedness(i hope thats right) will be forced to this time.

if you ever want to buy stored food at the cheapest price possible, you should have your chance 1 day after the gloomers figure out the world isnt going back to the 16th century.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: kievstar on September 11, 2012, 09:38:55 AM
A good stock to gage the economy in USA and Europe is Rockwell Automation.  They are a big player in factory automation - when they decline or stall in sales usually indicates a slowdown on plant investment (new or rebuild of old).  They do not do as well in Asia so you need to use a different stock for Asia.

Regarding gold more than a year ago I mentioned would it go to 1,000 or 2,000 first - I did not know.  But we know the answer neither as it hovers in the middle.  Gold is not a great longterm investment its more of a short term play right now.  I may start day trading it again - as mentioned 1 plus year ago was making 30 times my initial investment by day trading it.  When you have fear gold is an easy short play. 

The OP has not been here once this year (per his last login) and I remember him telling me it would be 5,000 plus by now on gold price.  He mentioned he was going to live in Ukraine maybe someone knows his whereabouts or did he start posting here under a new name?



Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: leeholsen on September 11, 2012, 11:03:58 AM
A good stock to gage the economy in USA and Europe is Rockwell Automation.  They are a big player in factory automation - when they decline or stall in sales usually indicates a slowdown on plant investment (new or rebuild of old).  They do not do as well in Asia so you need to use a different stock for Asia.

Regarding gold more than a year ago I mentioned would it go to 1,000 or 2,000 first - I did not know.  But we know the answer neither as it hovers in the middle.  Gold is not a great longterm investment its more of a short term play right now.  I may start day trading it again - as mentioned 1 plus year ago was making 30 times my initial investment by day trading it.  When you have fear gold is an easy short play. 

The OP has not been here once this year (per his last login) and I remember him telling me it would be 5,000 plus by now on gold price. 

yes, i've heard some saying silver is going over $100; that stuff is just crazy.

my short plays are volatiltiy - vix etfs and s+p shorts. you dont make as much as shorting a stock, but itsd a lot safer.

and my 2 favorite stocks are john deere and catepillar. when we hit the bottom of this next recession; i'm buying a whole lot of both of them. i own neither now as i think we're at a mkt top.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on March 19, 2013, 08:24:41 AM
There are various notes about possesion of "your" precious metals.

This article caught my eye.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.nl/2011/12/attempt-to-seize-and-liquidate-customer.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29

Anyways where is your silver and gold presently?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 28, 2013, 04:52:56 PM
Haha, just came across this Ukrainian woman's profile, she says: "Don’t steal, don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t sell drugs. The government hates competition......)) )))". 

How very true! :))) So wise and she is a beauty too!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Turboguy on August 28, 2013, 08:15:00 PM
I have always found it interesting to look back to see what our crystal balls were telling us and comparing the ideas to what has happened since. 




Regarding gold more than a year ago I mentioned would it go to 1,000 or 2,000 first -  When you have fear gold is an easy short play
The OP has not been here once this year (per his last login) and I remember him telling me it would be 5,000 plus by now on gold price. 

Good call on gold.  Both were close, it got close to 2000 and then dropped back to a 9 iron from the 1000 price.  I do recall when gold was at the top someone said it was then a perfect time to buy.   I do agree, Gold is good for short term trading other than that it is just a slab of metal with little real value.

I don't understand your comment that when you have fear gold is an easy short play.   When people have fear gold will go up, why short it?

my short plays are volatiltiy - vix etfs and s+p shorts. you dont make as much as shorting a stock, but itsd a lot safer.

and my 2 favorite stocks are john deere and catepillar. when we hit the bottom of this next recession; i'm buying a whole lot of both of them. i own neither now as i think we're at a mkt top.

Interesting.  You felt it was safer to short stocks a year ago and during the following year the market has gone up 40% or so and also you thought we were at a market top a year ago and 40% lower than the market is now.  Two of the laggards that haven't had those gains were JD to some extent and Cat in a big way.  Of course most were bullish on those two stocks when you said that.

It is really hard to predict what the market or individual stocks will do.  The only universal rule I have found is the more people think something will happen the greater the chance the opposite will happen.   

It's been a great time to be in the market but not a great time to be in gold.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 28, 2013, 10:10:29 PM
but now it's back to 1420... some people think that by the beginning of next year it's going to be over 2000
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 28, 2013, 11:14:21 PM
but now it's back to 1420... some people think that by the beginning of next year it's going to be over 2000

I would now ask them how much they have bought recently and how much they purchased a few years back.

Ask again on the 15th of January, well after Eastern Orthodox Christmas.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 28, 2013, 11:28:58 PM
but now it's back to 1420... some people think that by the beginning of next year it's going to be over 2000

I would now ask them how much they have bought recently and how much they purchased a few years back.

Ask again on the 15th of January, well after Eastern Orthodox Christmas.
AV, are you saying it ain't gonna happen?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on August 28, 2013, 11:33:59 PM
AV, are you saying it ain't gonna happen?

I am not saying either if I knew what was going to happen I would not be posting.

It is just a good habit to see what happens with assumptions, for some it keeps us honest.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 28, 2013, 11:36:31 PM
With this Syria situation getting white hot - all bets are off on the accuracy of any prognostications up or down.... stocks etfs bonds or commodities - only one thing is sure and that is volatile swings will be forth coming in all sectors.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on August 29, 2013, 09:13:35 AM
Haha, just came across this Ukrainian woman's profile, she says: "Don’t steal, don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t sell drugs. The government hates competition......)) )))". 

How very true! :))) So wise and she is a beauty too!

Hmmm, looking for her contact information.

Nope, nowhere to be found.

Is she one from your stable?
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 29, 2013, 10:19:06 AM
Haha, just came across this Ukrainian woman's profile, she says: "Don’t steal, don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t sell drugs. The government hates competition......)) )))". 

How very true! :))) So wise and she is a beauty too!

Hmmm, looking for her contact information.

Nope, nowhere to be found.

Is she one from your stable?
Dear Muzh, I see you are back to work today!  :-X 
FYI: I don't "have" any girls and I have no "stable". I help my clients find women according to their criteria on local Russian social networking sites. These women are not looking for foreign men, but some of them would be open to getting to know one if they find him interesting, intelligent and attractive. I give cultural advice and guidance on developing a relationship with a RW since I've done it since I was in my early teens. This makes the process go a lot smoother and my clients end up developing a good connection, friendship with romantic possibilities with 5 or 6 women in just a couple of months. Obviously I translate for them, so the language barrier is completely eliminated and they really get to know each other without much guess work, just as you would get to know a woman you met locally. 

Some of the WM who've been trying for a while on Russian sites like mamba surely have found out that getting and keeping a good looking RW's attention isn't that easy for a foreigner. They would be pleasantly surprised how their luck would change quickly if they decided to use my help.

I hope this helps and that now you understand that I don't have a "Stable" of women. I am NOT an agency, Muzh. You can think of me more in terms of a head hunter, consultant, relationship manager, translator, cultural adviser, logistics coordinator, a wing man, a sounding board and a guide. 

By the time we travel to FSU we would have worked for about 3 months together, gotten to know each other well and developed a friendship. This changes the dynamic of the whole process greatly. It's more like 2 friends travelling together and having fun. When my clients meet their dates for the first time they are usually a bit tense and worried. I help take the edge off by throwing a joke here and there, making every one laugh and relax, it really does make a difference. Also the fact that I'm happily married with children helps a lot, it makes my client seem more serious about family in their eyes as they think of me as his friend. Pulling out my iPhone and showing them the pics of my wife and kids always works wonders and puts them at ease.
There is a lot more to it, but that's enough for now. I don't want to distract you from your job  :)     
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on August 29, 2013, 10:50:16 AM
The following has been brought to you by:

 ED - Your Trusted MOB Broker. "If you can't find happiness with an American Feminazi, I'll show you a place where you will find women your daughter's age outnumber men 8 to 1 and are dying to make your house cosy and cook tasty dishes."
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Anteros on August 29, 2013, 11:07:40 AM
The following has been brought to you by:

 ED - Your Trusted MOB Broker. "If you can't find happiness with an American Feminazi, I'll show you a place where you will find women your daughter's age outnumber men 8 to 1 and are dying to make your house cosy and cook tasty dishes."

I see you're being a Putz again.  Stick to being a Muzh.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Eduard on August 29, 2013, 11:11:47 AM
The following has been brought to you by:

 ED - Your Trusted MOB Broker. "If you can't find happiness with an American Feminazi, I'll show you a place where you will find women your daughter's age outnumber men 8 to 1 and are dying to make your house cosy and cook tasty dishes."
why not take it a step further and say "your great, great grand daughter's age". If you're going to come up with BS claims might as well :)
I always found it so disingenuous of you, the man who married a bride from Ukraine stigmatising others who are trying to find love in that part of the world. What a hypocrite!
How is your work day going? Must be real busy today  :laugh:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Muzh_1 on August 29, 2013, 11:46:51 AM
The following has been brought to you by:

 ED - Your Trusted MOB Broker. "If you can't find happiness with an American Feminazi, I'll show you a place where you will find women your daughter's age outnumber men 8 to 1 and are dying to make your house cosy and cook tasty dishes."
why not take it a step further and say "your great, great grand daughter's age". If you're going to come up with BS claims might as well :)
I always found it so disingenuous of you, the man who married a bride from Ukraine stigmatising others who are trying to find love in that part of the world. What a hypocrite!
How is your work day going? Must be real busy today  :laugh:

Erm..., I'm on ignore. What part of ignore you don't understand?  :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 26, 2014, 03:47:07 PM
Time for an update; Gold at $1,218.00 and Silver at $17.62 at close of the market on 5PM Friday, September 26, 2014...

So projections of Gold $2,000 were incorrect and looks like Gold is hedging against Deflation versus inflation at this rate...

Looking like Polar Vortex II in North America winter 2014 and perhaps even colder and more snow than 2013 - Fracking supplies of NatGaz are high but many wells in the Bakken of Dakotas burning off as much as 25% of their NatGaz production flows due to a lack of Pipeline Capacity and rail/storage capacity to deliver this abundant cheap energy to the major demand/population Centers in the Cold North USA and even Canada.

Many pundits proclaiming that the vaunted Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

Yet the Obamunists and Senator Karl Levine, Michigan the are screaming that any Company trying to minimize their usurious onerous 40% Corporate Tax Rates by moving offshore (like the Manufacturers that moved to Communist Red China) who were not immoral and anti-American in a globalized economy...  have been shaming Walgreens, Burger King and a number of other major US Companies pursuing international inversions to remain competitive in the reality of global competition...  such that US multinationals are sitting on a war chest of over $2 Trillion USD "locked" in overseas operations and reserves...  Obamunists and Levine Marxists socialist anti-capitalists trying to pass laws to seize this international capital reserves via new tax edicts and congressional and executive action - these fools will just see many companies decide to pivot to the Asia Pacs and simply move the companies to where they are treated best - especially since the NYSE is a go to capital Market for the Chinese mega techs like Alibaba group - could be the model for most multinationals moving forward - Mandarin classes anyone.?.

So barring another CDO/CDS freeze up of the international finance systems (unlikely due to all the US real estate being bought by USA and international investors and just about anyone eligible to apply for MHAA/HARP modified mortgages setting an absolute floor under real estate in most markets...  looks like investors consider that a change in regime in DC or at least a Republican mid term landslide will offer some global rationalization to our insane US Corporate Tax code and repatriate with carrots rather than sticks the offshore US Corporate cash hoards with tax incentives to reinvesting in the USA and creating 30 Million USA jobs over the next 10 years...  One can hope the large and small business conservatives will cancel out the Obamarxists economy killing policies.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: tfcrew on September 26, 2014, 06:42:24 PM
I could make gold & silver triple in value overnight....
.....by selling all of mine.

Me the next day ----->   :GRRRR:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on September 28, 2014, 06:43:43 PM
I could make gold & silver triple in value overnight....
.....by selling all of mine.

Me the next day ----->   :GRRRR:

I have been driving around to all the new england antique "malls" where they rent booths to dealers and buying up any proof sets pre-1964 I can find for about $20 each+/-  ... about $15 Metal value Silver Nickel and Copper and then double for numismatic value (currently approx $40 USD per proof set up to $600/700USD for early 50s proof sets) and 100% profit not to0 bad - silver goes back to $40 an oz after QE downward stimulus on interest rates removed and will at least double my money again - a fairly safe bet and US recognized currency and known precious metals content - who knew solid copper pennies would also become valuable.

http://www.coinflation.com/unitedstates/

Description   Denomination   Metal Value   Metal % of Denomination
Lincoln Copper Cent Price   1909-1982 Cent (95% copper) *   
$0.01
$0.0203170   
203.17%
Jefferson Nickel Price   1946-2014 Nickel   
$0.05
$0.0463992   
92.79%
Lincoln Zinc Cent Value   1982-2014 Cent (97.5% zinc) *   
$0.01
$0.0059102   
59.10%
Roosevelt Dime Value   1965-2014 Dime   
$0.10
$0.0172319   
17.23%
Washington Quarter Value   1965-2014 Quarter   
$0.25
$0.0430820   
17.23%
Kennedy Half Dollar Value   1971-2014 Half Dollar   
$0.50
$0.0861647   
17.23%
Ike Dollar Value   1971-1978 Eisenhower   
$1.00
$0.1723306   
17.23%
Susan B. Anthony Dollar Value   1979-1981, 1999 SBA Dollar   
$1.00
$0.0615459   
6.15%
Sacajawea Dollar Value   2000-2014 Sacagawea Dollar   
$1.00
$0.0529059   
5.29%
Presidential Dollar Value   2007-2014 Presidential Dollar   
$1.00
$0.0529059   
5.29%


United States Circulated Silver Coinage Intrinsic Value Table
These coins were in standard circulation until silver was removed from all coinage in 1965 and 1970 (40% silver half-dollars). I recognize that the silver Eisenhower dollar was issued as a collectible only, but I'm still categorizing it with this group. This table illustrates how far the metal value has progressed compared to the denomination's purchasing power after the debasement.

*** Check out our easy-to-print guide on silver coin values including Canadian silver coins.

Table based on September 28, 2014 live precious metal prices:
Silver $17.54/oz  -0.10

Description   Denomination   Silver Value   Silver % of Denomination
Silver War Nickel Value   1942-1945 Nickel **   
$0.05
$.9868   
1973.73%
1916 Mercury Silver Dime Value   1916-1945 Mercury Dime   
$0.10
$1.2688   
1268.82%
1964 Silver Roosevelt Dime Value   1946-1964 Roosevelt Dime   
$0.10
$1.2688   
1268.82%
Liberty Silver Quarter Value   1916-1930 Standing Liberty Quarter   
$0.25
$3.1720   
1268.82%
1964 Silver Quarter Value   1932-1964 Quarter   
$0.25
$3.1720   
1268.82%
1947 Silver Walking Liberty Half Dollar Value   1916-1947 Half Dollar   
$0.50
$6.3441   
1268.82%
1962 Silver Franklin Half Dollar   1948-1963 Half Dollar   
$0.50
$6.3441   
1268.82%
JFK silver half dollar   1964 Kennedy Half Dollar   
$0.50
$6.3441   
1268.82%
40% JFK silver half dollar   1965-1970 Half Dollar (40% silver)   
$0.50
$2.5940   
518.81%
Morgan Silver Dollar   1878-1921 Morgan Dollar   
$1.00
$13.5663   
1356.63%
Peace Silver Dollar   1921-1935 Peace Dollar   
$1.00
$13.5663   
1356.63%
Silver Ike dollar   1971-1976 Eisenhower Dollar (40% silver) **   
$1.00
$5.5467   
554.67%
Silver Eagle   1986-2013 Silver Eagle (.999 Silver)   
$1.00
$17.5224   
1752.21%


United States Circulated Gold Coinage Intrinsic Value Table
Gold coin values below are based on the live bid price at the CME. These coins were in standard circulation until gold was removed from all circulating coinage in 1933. The values below only reflect the gold value, not rarity or numismatic value. All values shown in USD.

Coin value calculations use the 5:40 PM PDT gold price for September 28, 2014:
Gold $1217.50/oz  -1.70

Description   Face Value   Gold Value
Liberty Gold Dollar Type 1   1849-1854 Liberty Gold Dollar Type 1   $1.00   $58.89
Liberty Gold Dollar Type 2   1854-1856 Liberty Gold Dollar Type 2   $1.00   $58.89
Liberty Gold Dollar Type 3   1856-1889 Liberty Gold Dollar Type 3   $1.00   $58.89
Liberty Quarter Eagle   1840-1907 Liberty Quarter Eagle   $2.50   $147.24
Indian Quarter Eagle   1908-1929 Indian Quarter Eagle   $2.50   $147.24
Liberty Half Eagle   1839-1908 Liberty Half Eagle   $5.00   $294.47
Indian Half Eagle   1839-1908 Indian Half Eagle   $5.00   $294.47
Liberty Eagle   1838-1907 Liberty Eagle   $10.00   $588.96
Indian Eagle   1907-1933 Indian Eagle   $10.00   $588.96
Liberty Double Eagle   1849-1907 Liberty Double Eagle   $20.00   $1177.93
Saint Gaudens Double Eagle   1907-1933 Saint Gaudens Double Eagle   $20.00   $1177.93
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 31, 2014, 10:08:21 AM
Holy Silver Collapse Batman:

Today at 1PM on Friday 10/31/2014 Halloween day the market trick is the collapse of silver...

A very wise investor I know thinks silver will drop all the way to $7.00 USD per troy ounce - I will be paying attention for purchase of additional silver (.999 Fine One Ounce Silver Eagle modern US Dollar coins quite popular as the coins are among the best Silver value to Numismatic value ratio coins on the market...

Silver was bouncing around $17.40 last week and dropped all the way to $16.05 today.

Gold is likely to drop to less that $1,000/Troy Oz than hit $5,000 like many of the gold bugs were predicting just 3 short years ago.

Gold, silver tumble on strong U.S. growth data, Fed view
Reuters
 
By Frank Tang and Jan Harvey

Related Stories

Gold hits six-week high on concerns over slowing growth Reuters
Gold near 3-week low after Fed optimism over U.S. economy Reuters
Gold dips from six-week peak as dollar firms, physical demand eases Reuters
FOREX-Dollar stands tall after Fed's optimistic economic view Reuters
Gold set for weekly loss on dollar, strong data Reuters

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold dipped below $1,200 an ounce on Thursday and silver plunged 4 percent to its lowest since March 2010, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve gave upbeat comments about economic growth and ended its year-long bond-buying stimulus program.

Unexpectedly strong third-quarter U.S. economic growth data on Thursday, coupled with the Fed policy statement which suggested the U.S. central bank could hike interest rates sooner than expected, lifted the dollar index. [FRX/]

Also weighing down on the precious metal complex was data showing weak price pressure in Germany and Spain. Muted inflation readings gave the European Central Bank some grounds to hold off more economic stimulus. [ID:nL5N0SP4BA]

Analysts said that expectations of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike and a subsequent a dollar rally could further pressure gold prices.

"Our sense is that there are still obviously more adjustments still to come in terms of (higher) real rates and the dollar, and we do feel that gold will be breaking those lows," said Michael Lewis, head of commodity research at Deutsche Bank.

Spot gold (XAU=) fell as low as $1,195.70 an ounce, which marked a three-week low. It was last down 1.2 percent to $1,197.40 an ounce by 11:25 p.m. (1525 GMT).

U.S. COMEX December gold futures (GCZ4) were down $27.90 at $1,197.

U.S. interest rate futures shifted to show better-than-even chances of a rate rise next September. Previously, they had indicated a rise in October.

That dented interest in gold, which as a non-yielding asset tends to benefit from ultra-low rates.

The U.S. central bank largely dismissed financial market volatility, a slowdown in Europe and a weak inflation outlook as factors that might limit progress towards its unemployment and inflation goals. [ID:nL1N0SO24I]

Commerce Department data showed a smaller trade deficit and a surge in defense spending buoyed U.S. growth in the third quarter, though other details of Thursday's report hinted at some loss of momentum. [ID:nLNNULEA31]

Silver (XAG=) was down 4.1 percent at $16.35 an ounce, having earlier hit its lowest since March 2010 at $16.30.

COMEX options floor trader Jonathan Jossen said investors sold silver on heavy losses in copper and technical selling after it broke below key support near $16.80, near its recent low from earlier this month.

Spot platinum (XPT=) fell 1.5 percent to $1,235.25 an ounce, while spot palladium (XPD=) dropped 1.9 percent to $774.75 an ounce.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on October 31, 2014, 10:17:54 AM
Futures Crashing since this summer:

Symbol   Name   Last Trade   Change   Related Info

HGX14.CMX   Copper Nov 14   3.06
12:02PM EDT
Down 0.01 (0.37%)   

ZGQ14.CBT   Gold 100 oz. Aug 14   1,319.40
Jun 27
Up 2.30(0.17%)   

GCX14.CMX   Gold Nov 14   1,168.30
12:48PM EDT
Down 29.80 (2.49%)   

PAZ14.NYM   Palladium Dec 14   789.75
12:42PM EDT
Up 9.05 (1.16%)

PLX14.NYM   Platinum Nov 14   1,227.00
10:42AM EDT
Down 19.90 (1.60%)

ZIN14.CBT   Silver 5000 oz. Jul 14   21.00
Jun 27
Down 0.11 (0.51%)

SIX14.CMX   Silver Nov 14   15.88
12:04PM EDT
Down 0.51 (3.12%)
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: shakespear on July 21, 2015, 03:50:37 PM
For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 - 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on July 21, 2015, 04:01:43 PM
For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -

Not that I did, or would have done, but there seems to have been something odd going on during Sunday night.
Commentary here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/gold-hammered-down-sunday-night%E2%80%99s-2-minute-27-billion-%E2%80%9Cunprecedented-attack%E2%80%9D

There's been a pattern of hinky trading in recent months, not just in gold. This seems to be just another manipulation which has the effect of leading to aftershocks.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Dogsoldier on July 21, 2015, 04:41:28 PM
For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -
Yup, China just sold a load if gold, I believe.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Maxx on July 21, 2015, 05:17:19 PM
For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -
Yup, China just sold a load if gold, I believe.

Nope, they revealed they have far less gold holdings than what people believed they have. However some believe it is a lie to keep the price low so they can buy more.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on July 21, 2015, 05:24:15 PM
It would seem that forcing the price down was the objective - selling was done at a time when the market would not have been very liquid and a very large number of trades were made in a very short space of time, less than 3 minutes with the main fall happening within one minute.

That suggests a political motive to me.

Price has already risen again, although more in Euros and Pounds than in dollars but the significant point is who will be doing the buying at the moment.

This is a short term manipulation to gain a particular effect which will make somebody a shit tonne of money but be motivated by a political goal.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on July 21, 2015, 11:20:11 PM
I believe the global economy is slowly contracting make the price of most commodes to drift lower. The price of gold may become quite a bit lower before a bottom is hit. I think then it would be a huge buying opportunity as most countries are way over extended and will likely ruin the value of their currency trying to fix this deflation. We are likely over then next few years get an economy ride to remember where most people in most countries will end up with less than they enjoy now. Think 2008 where no governments has any bailout money left. Not Russia, Not China, Not any body in Europe and not the USA. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Dogsoldier on July 22, 2015, 01:54:35 AM
For those of you who advocated a huge rush to gold in your investment portfolio -

Gold today hit the lowest price since 2010 -
Yup, China just sold a load if gold, I believe.

Nope, they revealed they have far less gold holdings than what people believed they have. However some believe it is a lie to keep the price low so they can buy more.
Yes, China did reveal this but there was a big sell of on Monday causing the price to fall by 4%.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/20/markets-precious-idINKCN0PU04220150720
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on July 28, 2015, 10:02:14 AM
Tuesday, July 28th 2015 Noon NYC time:

Crude Oil 47.74 +0.74%  Gold 1,093.90 -0.23%  EUR/USD 1.1049  Copper 2.40 +2.02%  Silver 14.64 +0.21%

Wasn't the around $1.40 a year or so ago?

But things still not rosy in US Real Estate even with record low mortgage rates.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homeownership dropped to a record low in the second quarter as more Americans opted to rent, data showed on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted home ownership rate fell to 63.5 percent, the lowest since the government started tracking the series, the Commerce Department said. The rate, which peaked at 69.4 percent in 2004, was 63.8 percent in the first quarter.

The residential rental vacancy rate fell to 6.8 percent, the lowest level since 1985, from 7.1 percent in the first quarter.

Chinese securities markets collapsing down largest drop 8.5% since 2007 yesterday and another 1.6% today so naturally they are trying to capture some value in their vast Gold reserves to offset losses in the securities markets.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: cufflinks on August 26, 2020, 12:40:17 PM
Last Best Balding Brilliant Brit on Gold V Fiat post covid interviewed by RT's Max Keiser:


Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on November 20, 2020, 05:50:55 PM
US currency devaluation coming soon? World economic crash coming soon?

https://canadianpatriot.org/2020/10/26/what-the-great-reset-architects-dont-want-you-to-understand-about-economics/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 20, 2020, 07:09:51 PM
Gold is likely getting near a bottom now. With the world wide money printing I expect gold will do well over the coming months. Gold has been correcting from recent gains and though it is possible it could still go lower it appears to me to be putting in a bottom.

Just so everyone understand that economic collapse usually sends the price of gold lower as you can not do anything with it. You can not drive, eat it or live in it. Gold does well in inflation, low interest rates, and large scale money printing.

I am expecting to be a buyer soon.   
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Wiz on November 21, 2020, 09:08:55 AM
Gold is likely getting near a bottom now. With the world wide money printing I expect gold will do well over the coming months. Gold has been correcting from recent gains and though it is possible it could still go lower it appears to me to be putting in a bottom.

Just so everyone understand that economic collapse usually sends the price of gold lower as you can not do anything with it. You can not drive, eat it or live in it. Gold does well in inflation, low interest rates, and large scale money printing.

I am expecting to be a buyer soon. 

So you will be following Russia's example to save your assets!

Not long, now to go, for the Fiat currency to crash... and bring down your American "exceptionalism" Empire. Shame that too many people will be heard and too many will starve!

You cannot eat gold but you can exchange it for food! Putin has been very clever with his strategy.... spending all dollars Russia has been collecting from Oil and Gas sales and bought too many tones of Gold! Rubble is not a Fiat currency any more!

Crash of the Dollar? Is the US Dollar Doomed?

According to Bloomberg, "The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end"

The US Dollar is in trouble. Many of us in the alternative media and several economists who were ignored by the mainstream media and others saw this coming many years ago. The mainstream media is now listening, in this case Bloomberg News in an opinion piece written by Stephen Roach, ‘A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming’ gives the reader something to think about. What is surprising is what Mr. Roach said in the beginning of his piece, “the world is having serious doubts about the once widely accepted presumption of American exceptionalism.” A truth to consider given the fact that the world sees Washington’s double standards when it comes to geopolitics, economics and free trade.  Roach says that the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” is over:

Read MORE here: https://www.globalresearch.ca/mainstream-media-warning-us-dollar-doomed/5715764

 tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: d672 on November 21, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
 Nov 7th, 2010... that was the day I joined RUA

 Nov 7th, 2010... the first time I heard that the US dollar was about to crash here

 Nov 21st 2020... still waiting for that crash

  :Zzzzsleep:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 21, 2020, 02:36:11 PM
Wiz all things go up and down.  d672 In 2010 the price of gold was about a thousand dollars now it is about twice that. Gold goes up in waves and it is nice to try to pick the next wave.  I think we are close to the next wave up not the end of the world. Actually I am a big believer in the long term out look for the USA.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on November 21, 2020, 07:26:55 PM
Wiz, The doom of the US dollar has been anticipated and predicted for a long time. BUT LIKE SEX IT IS ONLY A REALITY WHEN IT HAPPENS!

Yes there are forces some external but mostly internal that may very well bring 'down' the dollar. There are some today cheering and hoping for the demise of the dollar, I consider them seriously challenged. This scenario is a nightmare. Long ago on RUA I noted the greatest danger and perhaps most lethal weapon the United States posses is its debt. That has not changed. In fact D. Trump has done a marvelous job at increasing its power.

My guess as the poem reads it will end not with a bang but rather a whimper.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Wiz on November 21, 2020, 07:58:09 PM
Wiz all things go up and down.  d672 In 2010 the price of gold was about a thousand dollars now it is about twice that. Gold goes up in waves and it is nice to try to pick the next wave.  I think we are close to the next wave up not the end of the world. Actually I am a big believer in the long term out look for the USA.

That is a revelation to me! I am a person who knows nothing about finances...... ;D

Obviously you missed the point made ........ about the Gold standard!

Your economy is based on wars and debt! China is producing most of your products..... soon China will buy most of your manufacturing .......and other profitable parts of the USA.

As of 31 August 2020 the Federal debt held by the public was $20.83 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.88 trillion, for a total national debt of $26.70 trillion.

Wiz, The doom of the US dollar has been anticipated and predicted for a long time. BUT LIKE SEX IT IS ONLY A REALITY WHEN IT HAPPENS!

Yes there are forces some external but mostly internal that may very well bring 'down' the dollar. There are some today cheering and hoping for the demise of the dollar, I consider them seriously challenged. This scenario is a nightmare. Long ago on RUA I noted the greatest danger and perhaps most lethal weapon the United States posses is its debt. That has not changed. In fact D. Trump has done a marvelous job at increasing its power.

My guess as the poem reads it will end not with a bang but rather a whimper.

AvHdb

Firstly we have to wait for you to decide who will be your next President and then we can talk...... about your comments.

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September,  since hitting a historic record of 14.7% in April, the labour department announced on Friday, in the last snapshot of the jobs market ahead of the presidential election.

Take a read at: A Brief History of U.S. Debt
https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

Still dreaming about sex?

Sorry I forgot a Greek saying ...... that a hungry person always dream about food and bread!

 tiphat :ROFL:
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: AvHdB on November 21, 2020, 08:40:13 PM
AvHdb

Firstly we have to wait for you to decide who will be your next President and then we can talk...... about your comments.

The US unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in September,  since hitting a historic record of 14.7% in April, the labour department announced on Friday, in the last snapshot of the jobs market ahead of the presidential election.

Take a read at: A Brief History of U.S. Debt
https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

Still dreaming about sex?

Sorry I forgot a Greek saying ...... that a hungry person always dream about food and bread!

 tiphat :ROFL:

Sorry to disappoint you. We have nothing to decide or influence on who will be the next president in the United States. There is a dance card and our names are not on it.

The reality is that the CORONA infection rates are rapidly rising both in the United States and across a broad number of nations. Allot hope is being pinned upon a future vaccine but it is still an unknown today.

Be safe, be merry, be careful!
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 21, 2020, 10:01:19 PM
Actually the next president will likely not change things as much as people think when it comes to the price of gold. The price of gold is likely to rise until the next financial crisis where it will likely fall again. This is a chart of the price of gold in dollars and it shows that gold could break out after a long pull back. There is no guarantee in the markets but this sure looks like a good set up to me.  [attachimg=1] 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 22, 2020, 12:00:17 AM
What this guy is saying that somewhere around 2022 the world economy will likely far apart and stay that way for over ten years being something like the great depression of the 1930's. I can tell you it will not be just a USA problem but a global problem. The reason the worlds economy does not grow much is world wide there are too many old people in all the developed countries. Countries not just this one are borrowing money to keep from going into a depression and soon that debt will become unstainable. This virus we are having is causing the debt to go up faster than anyone thought and it will likely continue to be a problem until at least next summer.  With countries facing having so many retired people and medical cost on top the the great debt it is likely to not be good. This is not like anything any of us have seen in our life time.

For those of you that have followed our long term charts through the years, you would remember that we had an ideal target for the 4th wave within the 5-wave rally off the 2009 lows in the 2200 region (which we clearly struck in March of 2020 when we spiked down to the 2192SPX low), with expectations that we would then rally over the 4000 region to complete the 5th wave off the 2009 lows, with strong potential to rally as high as the 6000 region.

Now, before you review my monthly chart, I want to highlight Garrett’s 100+ year wave count, which should you give a much better perspective as to how we have arrived at our wave count, which also supports the monthly chart I have been publishing for years.   This should provide everyone with an appropriate larger degree perspective and it is why I have continually disagreed with any other attempts at wave counts which have significantly diverged from the primary count presented on his chart.  As you can see, we have accounted for all the waves since the mid-1800’s, which supports our conclusion that we are completing a final 5th wave (off the 4th wave low struck in 2009) within a larger degree 3rd wave begun in the early 1930’s.

This also explains why, after we complete this final 5th wave, our primary expectation is that we have strong potential for a multi-decade 4th wave of the same wave degree as the 2nd wave which ushered in the Great Depression.  And, since the 2nd wave decline which ushered in the Great Depression was a relatively fast decline, the theory of alternation supports our expectation for a long, drawn out 4th wave which can take several decades to complete.
 
As we have now laid out the larger degree context for our long-term wave count, we can move into the “smaller degree” time frame within my monthly chart.  You will see that, as we move toward 2021, the market is preparing to embark upon the wave [iii] within the final 5th wave off the 2000 lows.  And, this has been our focus over the last several months.

The question with which we have recently been struggling is when does that wave [iii] take hold in earnest?  Now, to be honest, if the market had provided us with a standard pullback in wave [ii], I probably would not be questioning where we currently reside.  But, since the market only retraced .236 of the rally off the March lows, it certainly has made me question if that is all of the wave [ii] we see.

Due to the shallow pullback we have seen thus far, I still retain some potential for the market to strike our ideal target region for an appropriate wave [ii] in the 3050SPX region.  This structure is presented in purple on the attached 60-minute chart, but, for now, only as an alternative.  While it aligns quite well with the larger degree corrective structure I have been tracking in the NQ, I really do not see strong evidence of such a 5-wave potential decline in the SPX.  So, I still can only view this potential as a higher probability if we see an impulsive decline below 3330SPX, which I have reiterated many times over the past several weeks.

Now, as we move into the smaller degree perspective, it would seem that the most reasonable wave count is that wave [2] of wave [iii] is currently taking shape.  And, again, we have only seen a very shallow retracement thus far.

Lastly, while I rarely discuss timing within my analysis, I do want to revisit something I published almost two years ago on this issue. While I will not rely upon timing as a primary perspective, I can view Fibonacci relationships for timing perspectives as an ancillary support.  So, as I have noted the 2022/23 timing for a potential top for this bull market off the 2009 lows, I wanted to again explain why.
Since the market bottomed in 2009, I was considering a Fibonacci 13 year time frame from the bottom struck in 2009 as the potential target time frame for a top to this 5 wave structure off the 2009 lows.  Moreover, late 2021 is 34 years from bottom of the correction in October of 1987, as well as 89 years from 1932 bottom in the market.

Now, when you consider that these Fibonacci timing cycles often have a margin of error of 1-2 years, we have some very interesting confluence for a major market top between the years 2022-23.   Again, while this is nothing I would primarily trade upon, it does provide for a nice confluence of Fibonacci timing for a rally which currently seems to project out to late 2022 or into 2023 in order to complete this 5th wave off the 2009 lows.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Wiz on November 22, 2020, 03:44:24 AM
Texan

This text is definitely not yours and you forgot to post the source of the article.

When in the past I forgot to give the source... may I remind you all the attacks and comments I received over here!

If I had done the same , like you did, everybody, especially the Master of the Board,  will jump on my throat.... while I am trying to make a sensible conversation.
Never mind.... Will have to read your post later, as for now I must prepare myself, because I am waiting for my granddaughters to arrive for lunch!

 tiphat
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Dogsoldier on November 22, 2020, 06:34:44 AM
Texan

This text is definitely not yours and you forgot to post the source of the article.

When in the past I forgot to give the source... may I remind you all the attacks and comments I received over here!

If I had done the same , like you did, everybody, especially the Master of the Board,  will jump on my throat.... while I am trying to make a sensible conversation.
Never mind.... Will have to read your post later, as for now I must prepare myself, because I am waiting for my granddaughters to arrive for lunch!

 tiphat
Hey Wiz, Tex doesn’t do wholesale copy and paste like you.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 22, 2020, 11:50:25 AM
The article I posted is a paid subscription and is not available to the public and it is why I did not give the source. The other information not in the article is in Peter Zeihan where he shows debt to GDP ratios are passed a critical point. When a country passes being more in debt than about 95 per cent of GDP it does not usually recover with out a lot of pain. The USA as well as most of the developed world has passed this point. The USA I believe is about a 110 per cent of GDP but the with the virus it is rising fast and we should be way past this point in a few years. Actually when lower our GDP to take in a count the virus it maybe much worse already.

What Peter shows the GDP/debt ratio become a problem at the same time when the number of workers is no longer able to support the number of retired people which he claims will be around 2023. This will occur about the time the USA and the rest of the developed world will get its credit card cancelled. Who will want to buy bonds from a country who can not afford to pay the interest. From what I have seen 2023 will be about the time the stock market will crash and 2026 will be about when economy will stop working for most people. In 1929 the stock market crashed and 1932 is when the depression was really bad.  The stock market is ahead of the economy by about six months and it just takes a couple of years for the economy to reach the bottom.

So what I have is two independent sources coming up with the same conclusion and deriving it in total different ways.

It is a global problem. The USA will not be immune neither will Europe or China. China had a one child policy and has a aging population worse than most developed countries. It is more indebt than most other developed countries and it export dependent. It will not be a fun place to be in 2026 unless you are bride shopping.  ;D
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Wiz on November 22, 2020, 06:49:12 PM
[snip]

On the other hand.....is well known fact that the USA Empire will not last as long as the British one did! USA is still under the Control of the British Banksters of the CITY OF LONDON ....... and the plans for the 21st Century are not working as you would expect without constant wars .......to move your economy!

REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES

http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf

[snip]





Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on November 22, 2020, 07:30:38 PM
This subscription only deals with market directions. It is not any type of news paper and does not publish any news only it mathematical based belief of probability of market direction. It is saying late 2022 to 2023 is the most likely time the current bull market in almost everything will end. Most of the stuff is market stuff that they projection will happen next week to next month. It is not always right. They project the bull market will continue soon. Wiz you find it extremely boring.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on May 13, 2021, 11:01:15 AM
Let's resurrect this thread. All of the "quantitive easing" (printing money which we don't have) is resulting in real world inflation on food, gasoline and other stuff.

It would not take much for our economy to quickly get into drastically worse shape.

Purchasing a little bit of gold is a good way to hedge against inflation.

Here is the spot price today. Gold has gone up quite a bit since Biden's weak jobs report came out in April. In fact the price of Gold went up by $20 an ounce on that day alone.


https://www.apmex.com/gold-price/today

https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on May 13, 2021, 04:26:17 PM
Can someone else with more financial experience than myself please comment on this article? Cuffy? Andrew? Thanks.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-new-global-monetary-order-threatens-the-dollar-62029.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on May 14, 2021, 01:19:33 PM
up up and away!

https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on May 14, 2021, 04:28:05 PM
I have some thoughts about the article, I'll try to write a note tomorrow.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Texan77 on May 14, 2021, 08:39:47 PM
I am a precious metal investor. It is not a good way to make money but it is good good bet against inflation. I have some silver, gold and platinum.  The platinum so far has been the worse performer. I started buying about 2000. The price of the metal is way up but so is the cost of buying everything. Much better than saving dollars at one per cent interest. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Guile on May 14, 2021, 09:02:03 PM
I don't buy metals. They don't give dividends and the gains are fully taxed. Stocks you get a tax break. If the whole world collapses we're all in trouble anyways!  US dollars are king. Everywhere I've gone they have been accepted. 
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on May 15, 2021, 07:41:14 AM
I don't buy metals. They don't give dividends and the gains are fully taxed. Stocks you get a tax break.

I hear what you're saying about wanting to get dividends. Usually stocks which pay dividends are real expensive.

I am only buying small quantities of metals as a hedge against inflation, which I predict is going to continue to get much worse under Biden.

Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Contrarian on May 15, 2021, 08:58:24 AM
I don't buy metals. They don't give dividends and the gains are fully taxed. Stocks you get a tax break.

I hear what you're saying about wanting to get dividends. Usually stocks which pay dividends are real expensive.

I am only buying small quantities of metals as a hedge against inflation, which I predict is going to continue to get much worse under Biden.


https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: Guile on May 16, 2021, 01:53:04 AM
a small amount of metals and/or cryptocurrencies or alternative investments are fine.  I buy index funds and limit individual stocks to a few.

Sure inflation is shooting up but look at any major US index like the SP 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq etc over the long term and they are always up.  Even with big crashes like 2000 dot com, 2008 financial crash.

I can't complain with my gains but I am looking at long term decades long and holding when it goes bad.
Title: Re: Buying Gold to hedge against inflation
Post by: andrewfi on May 17, 2021, 06:59:34 AM
Can someone else with more financial experience than myself please comment on this article? Cuffy? Andrew? Thanks.

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-new-global-monetary-order-threatens-the-dollar-62029.html

Not a bad article.

It starts out referring to stablecoins. These are not something I have dealt with as yet, but I probably will because right now, if I want to exit the crypto market I have to buy fiat, usually dollars. That increases my costs as I must pay exchange fees. There may also be tax implications with crypto to fiat exchanges. Stablecoins as I see it enable me to simply do an exchange and pay only the spread on the currency exchange pair.

As things now stand, it is getting harder and harder to be able to stop the use of crypto, I absolutely agree with the article. Crypto is now at a point where it is too big to fail - or at least, imagine the pushback from large powerful individuals and businesses if it were to be tried in, for example, the United States. The amount of money tied up in crypto is simply too large to be able to turn it off and deal with the resultant losses.

More recently, another reason for not crushing crypto has started to become apparent. For quite some time crypto aficionados have talked about crypto being a hedge against fiat. That might seem to be a problem for the US government and Federal Reserve. However, at the moment, and for the near to mid-term, crypto has a positive advantage!

Due to money creation, the US economy is awash with new money. That is absolutely inflationary. For several decades the USA has been able to expert excess money through the petrodollar system, reducing the amount of excess money in the US national market and thus keeping a lid on inflation. In essence, the US has been able to export inflation.

Cryptocurrencies offer a similar export function. Every dollar that is used to purchase any form of cryptocurrency is a dollar removed from circulation within the US economy. That has a countervailing effect upon inflation, just as the petrodollar system has been doing since the middle of the last century.

It may well be that the US government and Fed would prefer that crypto did not exist, but increasingly it will be seen as a soak for money that would otherwise lead to rising prices in the USA. After all, if a USAian puts money into crypto and holds it, which, on average they do, then she cannot spend it on buying Chinese goodies. The surplus money cannot contribute to inflation.

In very simple terms, inflation is a general increase in price levels. Inflation, in general terms, is caused by an increase in supply of money without a corresponding increase in productivity within the economy. If fewer goods and services are produced than the amount of money in the economy then prices will rise until the value of all the economic activity uses up all the money. This is why during inflationary periods, governments and central banks encourage saving as saving reduces the amount of money circulating in the economy.

So, in my opinion, crypto is here to stay. While precious metals offer some degree of hedging against inflation or outright currency failure, they are not as good. That's because it is harder to deal in gold and silver. We also have the problem of paper gold. That's gold that does not really exist.

In my opinion, the only gold worth holding is that which one actually has one's hands-on. But physical gold is so illiquid that it is not worth bothering with, also, the spread between purchase and sale of physical gold is very high meaning that the price needs to shift a lot to make purchase or sale worthwhile. Crypto is hugely liquid and transactions are very cheap meaning that tradeable margins are tiny.

So, a decent article but it only covers part of the topic, but then again, it is a very short article - I have probably written in a few minutes, almost as many words about just a couple of aspects that the article did not address - there's plenty more.