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Author Topic: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence  (Read 7458 times)

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Offline cufflinks

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How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« on: May 30, 2019, 12:38:46 PM »
As a Lifetime Subscriber to Jim Rickards Strategic Intelligence Reports here is June 2019's report summary and Buy Recommendation - feel free to comment yes even Lord Afi and his sidekick the Mobster:

More Chaos to Come…
How do these three storms – impeachment, the 2020 election and Spygate – converge to create the perfect storm?

By November 2019, the impeachment process should be well underway in the form of targeted House hearings. The 2020 Democratic debates (starting in June 2019) will be red-hot. Trump’s counterattacks on the FBI and CIA should be reaching a fever pitch based on real revelations and actual indictments.

The impeachment process and Trump’s revenge represent diametrically opposing views of what happened in 2016. The Democrats will continue to call Trump “unfit for office.” Trump will continue to complain the Obama administration and the deep state conspired to derail and delegitimize him. The 2020 candidates will have to take a stand (even though they may prefer to discuss policy issues). There will be nowhere to hide. The bitterness, rancor and leaking will be out of control.

Any one of these storms would create enough uncertainty for investors to sell stocks, raise cash and move to the sidelines. The combination of all three will make them run for the hills. That’s our warning to investors.

Against this perfect storm backdrop, consider these additional specific trigger points for investors:

The U.S. is approaching the “X-Date.” That’s the day the Treasury runs out of cash to pay bills including interest on U.S. Treasury securities. Right now the X-Date is expected around mid-July, but no one knows for sure. The debt ceiling was hit a few months ago, but the Treasury has relied on so-called “extraordinary measures” to keep paying the bills (like looking for spare change in the sofa when the pizza delivery guy is knocking at the door). Soon the Treasury will be broke
Trump still wants funding for the border wall and Democrats still refuse to give Trump the funding. That fight is not over; it’s just on hold
The U.S. could be looking at another government shutdown at midnight on Sept. 30 (the end of the U.S. budget year). The only remedies are approved appropriations bills (unlikely) or a continuing resolution (doubtful without wall funding). Expect another shutdown.
Imagine a government shutdown over wall funding while the Treasury’s going broke. That’s another triple perfect storm of its own. Of course, these three events are all related. The X-Date and end of the budget year both give Trump leverage to get money for the wall. But this game of brinksmanship comes at the risk of default or shutdown.

In addition, we face a long list of international crisis catalysts:

U.S.-China trade war
NAFTA replacement (the USMCA)
Tariffs on European cars
Confrontations with China over Taiwan and/or the South China Sea
Russia sanctions
Iran sanctions
Israel, Hamas and Gaza
Debt crises in Turkey, Argentina, China
Recession in Europe
All of this is real. All of this is happening or coming soon. In the meantime, complacency, “risk on” and low volatility rule the day. Don’t worry, be happy.

The stock market today acts like a small child who needs to be spoon-fed. As long as the food keeps coming (preferably pudding or other sweets) the child is fine. Once the food stops, the child begins to scream and kick. The Fed is the parent who spoon-feeds the market low interest rates and lots of liquidity. Once the food is withdrawn (through rate hikes and QT) the hissy fit begins.

We saw this in May 2013 (“taper tantrum”), September 2013 (delayed start of tapering until December), September 2015 (delayed liftoff until December), February 2016 (Shanghai Accord) and again in December 2018 (the Powell Put pivot to “patience”). It’s amazing the Fed got rates as high as they have given stock market resistance (although it took six years, 2013–2019, following five years of ZIRP and QE, 2008–2013).

The bottom line is the Fed still wants rates higher (up to 4% to fight a new recession) and Trump wants them lower (to help his chances in 2020 with a booming stock market). Hence the political battle over two open seats on the Fed board.

The U.S.-China trade war is connected to these Fed scenarios. Here’s a scorecard of possible outcomes:

Lower rates and the end the of trade war = Victory lap for Trump.
Lower rates but trade war continues = Trump still wins, but it’s much closer.
Higher rates and end of trade war = Trump can win, but it’s too close for comfort. The Fed could cause a recession before they know it.
Higher rates and the trade war continues = Trump could lose if we tip into recession and farmers suffer.
Obviously, Trump wants the first outcome. He’s counting on his new Fed nominees to deliver rate cuts or at least keep a lid on the existing policy rate. The problem is that Trump is not known for finesse and the Fed is not known for reliable forecasts. Both sides could blunder into a recession and a Trump loss in 2020.

The dynamic favors Trump for now, but all bets are off if we actually have a recession. This is why the fight over Fed vacancies is so important. Trump has to appoint some “friends” (possibly including Judy Shelton) to hold Powell’s feet to the fire on no interest rate hikes, possible interest rate cuts and a quick end to quantitative tightening (QT).

If that happens, we avoid recession and Trump wins. Trump needs to juggle Mueller revenge, base support and Fed policy control to pull off this trifecta. Difficult, but doable.

How to Play the Markets When These Storms Converge
The next six months will present unprecedented challenges for investors. Markets will have to wrestle with fights over impeachment, election attacks and Spygate. Trump will be trying to improve his odds with Fed appointments and an end to the trade wars. Democrats will be trying to derail Trump with investigations, accusations and leaks.

Some of this will be normal political crossfire, but some of it will be deadly serious, including arrests of former senior government officials and revelations of an attempted coup aimed at the president.

None of it will be easy for markets to digest. A storm with no name is coming. The only safe harbors will be gold, cash and Treasury notes. And make sure you have a life preserver handy.

Now read on as my collaborator Byron King tells you about another type of storm you should be aware of. Byron gives his insight on the coming battle for economic superiority in the world and the best way to position yourself for big gains. His analysis is below.

 

Trade This Energy Giant for 38% Gains as the U.S.-China Battle Heats Up
As tensions rise in U.S.-China trade talks, the real battle is not over tariffs but whether or not the U.S. will continue as a global economic power. The fight for control of critical resources and supply chains is the new battle for the 21st century. Here’s how to play it for big gains…
By Byron King, Senior Geologist

Jim just described the “Storm With No Name” concerning U.S. politics and the upcoming 2020 election cycle.

Now let’s discuss the Storm With a Name, and that’s China and the ongoing Battle for the 21st Century.

There’s an epic struggle occurring right now, if we know how to interpret events. China has been waging economic war on the U.S. — and on the entire Western world, to be accurate — for over 30 years. And to its great strategic credit, China has been winning this war.

But now the global-level fight has moved from the shadows of commerce, banking and low-key subterfuge into the forefront of economic visibility. And the fight is getting noisier.

Let’s step back and take stock of the battlespace.

Doubtless you’ve read about the ongoing “U.S.-China trade war” or some similar description. More than likely the story you’ve seen is something along the lines of how President Trump has used executive authority to impose tariffs on Chinese goods because of the lopsided U.S.-China trade balance. Or words to that effect…

And now we have a U.S.-China “trade war.” We place tariffs on Chinese stuff. The Chinese place tariffs on U.S. stuff.

If you follow most mainstream media themes, it’s all Trump’s fault.

Per media accounts, our current U.S.-China situation is based on some sort of Trumpian “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) trade policy. The China imbroglio is Trump’s characteristic “economic nationalism” writ large. It’s old-fashioned, obsolete “America First!” applied to trade with China. And of course, as with much else about current U.S. politics, it’s “all about Trump.”

Well, that sort of media theme is flat wrong. In fact, it’s pure hogwash, which is about the nicest way I can say it and get this article past the copy editing desk in Baltimore.

Here’s what’s going on with China…

The current trade fight is one skirmish — the first serious engagement, actually — within the Battle for the 21st Century.

Let’s disabuse ourselves of one particular notion. The current state of U.S.-China trade is NOT purely about Trump. But OK, let’s talk about Trump:

Trump is the first U.S. leader in 30 years to recognize and elevate to policy level what has been happening and where things are going with economic relations with China.
He’s the first U.S. leader to frame the issue for what it is, namely, the ongoing deindustrialization of the U.S., courtesy of an entire fifth column within the U.S. and across the Western world, all playing very nicely with Big China Inc.
And he’s the first U.S. leader to begin the process of turning things around to prevent — well, to try to prevent! — the U.S. economy from slipping into an irrecoverable flat spin of noncompetitiveness and global irrelevancy.
In order to understand the key point, let’s view things from a different perspective. What if Trump were just another go-along, get-along, run-of-the-mill, “free trade!” U.S. president?

Well, we’d have a U.S.-China “deal” already.

That is, if Trump followed standard advice from the likes of Goldman Sachs and the Davos crowd, if not the editorial pages of both The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, there would be no banner headlines about “Trade War!” Doubtless, the media would slam Trump for something else, but not trade with China.

Let’s do what they call “counterfactual history” at one of my alma maters, the U.S. Naval War College. Let’s say that Trump met with China’s President Xi at the White House — if not at Mar-a-Lago, with its “delicious chocolate cake” — and signed a huge trade deal. Just envision the pomp, including the U.S. Marine Band blaring in the background.

Under the alternative view of events, China would have agreed to buy U.S. wheat and soybeans. Lots and lots of wheat and soybeans. Hogs, too! And probably a whole lot of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The forecast would be for an endless fleet of cargo ships loading up at U.S. piers and bound for China, laden to the gunwales with gazillions of tons of wheat, soybeans, hog bellies and LNG.

Oh, what a glorious victory in the global trade war, eh? Wheat! Soybeans! Hog bellies! LNG!

Most U.S. mainstream media, with their characteristic incompetence at understanding true issues, would have hailed Trump’s “trade victory” over China (“More soybeans!”), and even that would be through the grinding, clenched teeth that come when Trump does anything with which they actually agree.

But really… more wheat, more soybeans, etc., would’ve just been another defeat in the long war that China is waging.

Sure, China would be happy to buy U.S. commodities and energy supplies at dirt-cheap prices. But China can get soybeans elsewhere, along with hog bellies, LNG and much more. Heck, why do you think China has been buying up agricultural land across Africa and South America? Or why are Chinese companies buying energy and mineral rights from Serbia to Saipan?

China doesn’t really need U.S. commodities unless they come at bargain-basement prices. Along these lines, China has spent 30 years working to secure its resource base across the globe. Think in terms of Chinese-owned projects across the world, built by Chinese engineers and workers. Think in terms of goods moving in Chinese ships — a commercial fleet of over 4,000 large cargo vessels. And mostly operating from Chinese-built (if not controlled) ports, from Panama to Pakistan.

Now add in the looming Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which China will build out roads, rail, airports, power lines, pipelines and whatever else all across Eurasia, from China’s east coast to the cities of western Europe.

All those resources and channels of commerce are intended to support a so-called “Chinese dream” of dominating high-end manufacturing in the 21st century. It’s all about China gaining and keeping the upper hand in precision manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics, telecommunications, biological and genetic engineering, access to space and more.

China’s national goal is not simply to displace the U.S. from economic preeminence. It’s to dominate the global economy to the exclusion of every other nation. China will gladly seize market share from U.S. companies, as well as those of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Europe and anywhere else that some company or society has come up with profitable methods of commerce.

For 30 years, China has been waging a military-style campaign to establish its business presence pretty much everywhere, while searching every archive for commercial, scientific and of course military intelligence. It’s all about sending knowledge and resources back home to support the rebuild of China as a key player in the world.

In other words, Trump’s “beef” isn’t about China not buying enough hogs or soybeans. It’s about the trillions of dollars in intellectual property (IP) that the Chinese government and its firms have pirated from U.S. and Western firms over the decades. And it’s about the trillions of dollars in manufacturing capabilities that have “migrated” to China over that time.

We could have a very long article on just the manufacturing capabilities that have departed the U.S. for China. And also, it’s worth noting, departed from England, France, Italy, Germany and a long list of other countries. And I don’t mean low-end manufacturing, like the characteristic “stuff” that moves to the shelves of Walmart and Target and eventually into landfills.

When it comes to China, we’re talking the migration of high-end manufacturing from the West to the Middle Kingdom. It’s everything from computer chips, high-power magnets and solar panels to complex pharmaceuticals and aerospace-grade metals and materials.

In short, entire supply chains for all manner of complex systems are now resident in China, to the near exclusion of the U.S. and many other Western nations. The Battle for the 21st Century will be to recover some of those supply chains to support U.S. and/or Western industry.

One of the biggest elements of the Battle for the 21st Century will be P. China has stolen entire libraries of IP and then some.

For example, I recall a few years ago speaking with a very senior guy from Microsoft. (He’s a household name to most people who know the slightest bit about Microsoft.) He described internal Microsoft estimates that as much as 90% of Microsoft-labeled software running in China was pirated. I asked why Microsoft didn’t just shut down that pirated software when it bounced back to the company servers. “It would create more problems than we want to deal with.”

Another time, I met with a European company that builds high-speed rail systems. They described how China’s entire high-speed rail buildout is founded on stolen tech. Whether it’s the rails and ties, the wheels and axles, couplers, brakes, power systems, you name it, it’s all based on stolen tech, said the rail execs.

In essence, the Chinese bought several examples from foreign builders and demanded extensive technical data. Then they simply copied the basics while adding a few unsubstantive elements to support an argument that the resulting product really was “Chinese” technology.

It gets us back to Trump and the “trade war” with China. It’s really not about how many bushels of soybeans China buys. And it’s not whether or not U.S. consumers should pay 25% tariffs on imported Chinese goods such as washing machines or microwave ovens or anything else.

Trump’s tariffs — and his “trade war” battle — are about whether or not the U.S. will continue in the 21st century as a world-leading economic power.

It’s about whether or not the U.S. will have some semblance of national-level supply chains that support precision manufacturing within an advanced economy.

If the current situation with China doesn’t resolve in favor of the U.S., you can kiss a lot of your future wealth goodbye. Manufacturing and trade will migrate to China even more than we’re already seeing. The U.S. economy will drift downward. The U.S. will continue its transformation into a “financialized” nation, displaying more of what we’ve been seeing for the past 30 years — the wealthy and asset-rich becoming richer, the middle class shrinking into surly, proletarian bitterness.

That’s what’s at stake in this trade war.

Whether Trump prevails here or the effort goes down in flames, there’s a way in which you can claim a stake in the future of Western “supply chains.”

It’s another resource play, and admittedly a big one. It’s BHP (NYSE: BHP), a global mining and energy company with a market cap of $201 billion.

BHP has roots in Australia; the current three-letter name reflects the old one, Broken Hill Proprietary, Broken Hill being the site of an old lead mine in New South Wales. But anymore, BHP operates across continents and produces all manner of essential energy and mineral resources. These include oil, gas, coal and uranium. Plus metals, with a focus on iron ore, nickel and copper, the latter two being critical to the future of advanced manufacturing.

Strategically, BHP’s focus is on capital discipline, which means deploying funds to the best possible returns. BHP wants to see high cash flow, value creation and return on investment.

Shares currently trade in the range of $52, reflecting a price-earnings ratio of 25. This against growing profitability and cash flow, with decreasing debt. Meanwhile, BHP pays a handsome dividend that yields over 4.4%.

Looking ahead, we could see the share price for BHP go to previous highs over $71 or more, about a 38% rise.

As discussed above, we live in a world of international competition for the heights of manufacturing between China and the U.S., as well as much of the rest of the developed world.

Looking ahead, BHP will play a crucial role in maintaining fundamental control over Western access to critical resources and thence to rebuilding supply chains outside Chinese control.

ACTION TO TAKE: Buy BHP (NYSE: BHP) up to $57 per share.

Offline dcguyusa

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2019, 04:24:35 PM »
BHP dropped down to below $20 USD in January 2016.  It went over $100 USD in April 2011.  From the recession period (2009) it was around $50 USD.  So back to square one.   :money: :biggrin:
An uninformed opponent is a dangerous opponent.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2019, 04:43:48 AM »
Cuffys post......


How much do you have to pay a month for Jim Rickards Strategic Intelligence Reports ?

To much for me to read I just went to the local school in the village ,  down in the west country .. ;D

I don't trust any financial whizz kids or advisors and would never pay 0.05c for any information, if I ever did I would need to see the guys asset list, his private bank accounts , property deeds and much more for the past 10 years ..

I would presume Jim Rickards must have several yachts , luxury houses all over the world, off shore accounts with millions of cash, drive a new Bentley also have a Ferrari  amongst other things ?

In my mind most financial whizz kids/advisors usually have nothing, just the shirt the walk around in..its all bla bla bla bla
I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!


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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2019, 06:44:42 AM »
While I am not an absolute subscriber to the maxim that those who can't do, teach, there is some truth in the idea.

This is a guy who gets paid to market products. People pay him for the information and 'insights'. Given that, in most cases, the spread of knowledge reduces its value (a good reason for legislation against insider trading!) one can infer that, if his knowledge was golden, he'd not be selling it, or giving it away. The best ROI would come from implementing his knowledge.

Anyone selling 'secrets' is, by definition, lying!
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

Offline cufflinks

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2019, 12:26:37 PM »
Curious responses - that one should never listen to experts in their chosen fields (I listen to and read multiple experts analysis every month and look for any consensus or divergence in their perspectives for potential trends).

Rickards is an accomplished Author of many serious books and an in-demand speaker around the globe.  He is of the Camp (Peter Schiff, David Stockton, Martin Armstrong, Bill Bonner and many more) that the long term debts and unfunded liabilities (Gov Pensions, etc) of the USA are now so vast and unsustainable that a correction and financial reset are basically overdue - think a new modern tech-based Bretton Woods type reset - is on the horizon and that a defensive portfolio is warranted.

Markets mastery allows one to control their own destiny... as we learned in the 20th Century wars and chaos...

"If you do not control your own destiny - someone else will !"

Rather than argue if one should heed the advice of experts or not let's consider the pros or cons of Jims' Team portfolio reccs...

Symbol   Name   Comments   Entry Date   Entry Price   Exit Date   Current Price   Dividends   Percent Gain

Jim's Picks
PSQ   ProShares Short QQQ   Hold 4/9/19   09/22/2017   $38.45   Open   $29.99   0.43   -21%
NOC   Northrop Grumman Rg   Hold 4/9/19   10/25/2018   $275.01   Open   $309.81   2.40   14%
CHAD   Direxion China Bear ETF   Hold.   05/23/2017   $39.96   Open   $31.95   0.73   -18%
TLT   iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond   Hold.   09/27/2016   $138.42   Open   $130.20   7.63   -0%

Nomi's Picks
JPM   JPMorgan Chase Rg   Buy up to $115. Hold your position 11.13.18   07/27/2018   $114.90   Open   $107.06   2.40   -5%
EUM   PrShs Shrt MSCI EM   Buy up to $21.00. Hold your position 11.13.18   08/29/2018   $18.78   Open   $19.56   0.22   5%
SJB   PRSHS SHRT HIGH YLD   Buy up to $23.50   12/20/2018   $23.68   Open   $21.98   0.13   -7%
DXJ   WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund   Buy up to $65.00 per share.   11/15/2017   $56.90   Open   $48.20   1.87   -12%
SHY   iSh 1-3Y Trs Bd   Buy up to $85 per share   01/29/2019   $83.64   Open   $84.38   0.63   2%
CX   Cemex Sp ADR   Hold 3/14   10/25/2018   $5.52   Open   $4.23   0.00   -23%
NOMD   NOMAD FOODS   Hold 4/9/19   11/28/2018   $19.80   Open   $21.03   0.00   6%
IAT   iSh US Reg Bk   Hold your positions 5/14/19   02/28/2019   $47.51   Open   $44.04   0.21   -7%
CAG   ConAgra Foods   Set a limit of $33   04/25/2019   $31.00   Open   $26.86   0.21   -13%

Byron's Picks
SGDM   Sprott Gold Miners   Buy up to $34.00 per share.   05/18/2016   $21.80   Open   $17.58   0.21   -18%
UEC   Uranium Energy   Buy up to $1.20 per share.   11/15/2017   $1.36   Open   $1.34   0.00   -1%
CVE   Cenovus Energy Rg   Buy up to $10.25 per share   06/26/2018   $9.78   Open   $8.33   0.07   -14%
CCJ   Cameco Corp.   Buy up to $11.50 per share.   03/27/2017   $11.02   Open   $10.03   0.37   -6%
OR   Osisko Gold Royalties   Buy up to $15.00 per share.   07/25/2016   $12.04   Open   $10.09   0.35   -13%
RIG   Transocean N   Buy up to $16.00 per share.   09/28/2018   $14.10   Open   $6.63   0.00   -53%
NILSY   MMC Nor Nickel ADR   Buy up to $17.75 per share.   11/28/2018   $19.20   Open   $20.88   0.00   9%
GOLD   Barrick Gold   Buy up to $19.00 per share.   01/24/2017   $18.25   Open   $11.79   0.42   -33%
SPOXF   Sprott Rg   Buy up to $2.00. Half position closed 7/31/18 at $2.32 exit price, 47.62% gains   10/26/2016   $1.68   Open   $2.27   0.23   48%
NCMGY   Newcrest Mng Sp ADR   Buy up to $21.00 per contract   02/28/2019   $17.29   Open   $18.48   0.00   7%
OII   Oceaneering Intl Rg   Buy up to $25. 5.23.18   05/23/2018   $23.70   Open   $16.57   0.00   -30%
WPM   Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.   Buy up to $29.00 per share. **Note: Formerly Silver Wheaton (SLW). Company name and ticker symbol changed as of 5/16/17.   05/18/2016   $18.67   Open   $21.12   0.89   18%
KL   Kirkland Lake Gl   Buy up to $30 per share   01/29/2019   $30.19   Open   $32.54   0.03   8%
GOEX   Global X Gold Explorers ETF   Buy up to $30.00 per share.   04/21/2017   $23.49   Open   $19.38   0.00   -18%
NEM   Newmont Mining   Buy up to $38.00 per share.   11/23/2016   $31.50   Open   $32.09   1.88   8%
CDE   Coeur Mining Rg   Buy up to $5.90.   08/29/2018   $5.63   Open   $2.83   0.00   -50%
BHP   BHP Group Sp ADR   Buy up to $57 per share   05/30/2019   $52.61   Open   $52.50   0.00   -0%
AEM   Agnico Eagle Mines   Buy up to $58.00 per share.   09/27/2016   $53.89   Open   $41.94   1.66   -19%
SAND   Sandstorm Gold Ld   Buy up to $6.50 per share.   06/23/2016   $4.45   Open   $5.12   0.00   15%
SLB   Schlumberger Rg   Buy up to $65.00   10/25/2018   $53.57   Open   $35.18   1.00   -32%
HES   Hess   Buy up to $69.   04/25/2019   $64.50   Open   $57.79   0.00   -10%
ENS   EnerSys   Buy up to $70   03/26/2019   $64.04   Open   $58.49   0.00   -9%
XOM   Exxon Mobil Rg   Buy up to $86.   07/27/2018   $82.21   Open   $71.97   3.33   -8%
PHYS   Sprott Phys Gld - Trust Units   Invest equal sums in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS: NYSE) and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV: NYSE).   08/19/2016   $11.11   Open   $10.30   0.00   -7%
PSLV   Sprott Physical Silver Trust   Invest equal sums in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS: NYSE) and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV: NYSE).   08/19/2016   $7.47   Open   $5.21   0.00   -30%



Offline Wiz

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2019, 12:38:25 PM »
Caffli

A typical American selling bullshite sprinkled with a few real true items and all surmised perfectly by Andrewf in a few lines.

This is a guy who gets paid to market products. People pay him for the information and 'insights'. Given that, in most cases, the spread of knowledge reduces its value (a good reason for legislation against insider trading!) one can infer that, if his knowledge was golden, he'd not be selling it, or giving it away. The best ROI would come from implementing his knowledge.

Anyone selling 'secrets' is, by definition, lying!

More importantly is the message from “ Jim Rickards’ of Strategic Intelligence” that he is telling us:

According to “Agora Financial” https://agorafinancial.com/publications/awn
 
The goal of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence is simple — help you prepare and profit from the coming collapse of the dollar. Your editor will be Jim Rickards. According to him, “the end of the international monetary system is imminent (he means the reserve currency $ Dollar) and it will wipe out millions of unprepared Americans.”

The prediction of in this very long article is that the USA Empire will go down rapidly, whichever way you look at it! Your president “Tramp” he can hardly do anything to change the course of history and the demise of the Evil Zionist run NWO.

See below some highlights that give away the game……..

As a Lifetime Subscriber to Jim Rickards Strategic Intelligence Reports here is June 2019's report summary and Buy Recommendation - feel free to comment yes even Lord Afi and his sidekick the Mobster:

More Chaos to Come…
How do these three storms – impeachment, the 2020 election and Spygate – converge to create the perfect storm?

By November 2019, the impeachment process should be well underway in the form of targeted House hearings. The 2020 Democratic debates (starting in June 2019) will be red-hot. Trump’s counterattacks on the FBI and CIA should be reaching a fever pitch based on real revelations and actual indictments.

The impeachment process and Trump’s revenge represent diametrically opposing views of what happened in 2016. The Democrats will continue to call Trump “unfit for office.” Trump will continue to complain the Obama administration and the deep state conspired to derail and delegitimize him. The 2020 candidates will have to take a stand (even though they may prefer to discuss policy issues). There will be nowhere to hide. The bitterness, rancor and leaking will be out of control.

Any one of these storms would create enough uncertainty for investors to sell stocks, raise cash and move to the sidelines. The combination of all three will make them run for the hills. That’s our warning to investors.

Against this perfect storm backdrop, consider these additional specific trigger points for investors:

The U.S. is approaching the “X-Date.” That’s the day the Treasury runs out of cash to pay bills including interest on U.S. Treasury securities. Right now the X-Date is expected around mid-July, but no one knows for sure. The debt ceiling was hit a few months ago, but the Treasury has relied on so-called “extraordinary measures” to keep paying the bills (like looking for spare change in the sofa when the pizza delivery guy is knocking at the door).
Soon the Treasury will be broke
Trump still wants funding for the border wall and Democrats still refuse to give Trump the funding. That fight is not over; it’s just on hold
The U.S. could be looking at another government shutdown at midnight on Sept. 30 (the end of the U.S. budget year). The only remedies are approved appropriations bills (unlikely) or a continuing resolution (doubtful without wall funding). Expect another shutdown.
Imagine a government shutdown over wall funding while the Treasury’s going broke. That’s another triple perfect storm of its own. Of course, these three events are all related. The X-Date and end of the budget year both give Trump leverage to get money for the wall. But this game of brinksmanship comes at the risk of default or shutdown.

In addition, we face a long list of international crisis catalysts:

U.S.-China trade war
NAFTA replacement (the USMCA)
Tariffs on European cars
Confrontations with China over Taiwan and/or the South China Sea
Russia sanctions
Iran sanctions
Israel, Hamas and Gaza
Debt crises in Turkey, Argentina, China
Recession in Europe
  (The US of Europe and the EURO are an American Project to support the DOllar and have control of the European Continent)
All of this is real. All of this is happening or coming soon. In the meantime, complacency, “risk on” and low volatility rule the day. Don’t worry, be happy.

The stock market today acts like a small child who needs to be spoon-fed. As long as the food keeps coming (preferably pudding or other sweets) the child is fine. Once the food stops, the child begins to scream and kick. The Fed is the parent who spoon-feeds the market low interest rates and lots of liquidity. Once the food is withdrawn (through rate hikes and QT) the hissy fit begins.

We saw this in May 2013 (“taper tantrum”), September 2013 (delayed start of tapering until December), September 2015 (delayed liftoff until December), February 2016 (Shanghai Accord) and again in December 2018 (the Powell Put pivot to “patience”). It’s amazing the Fed got rates as high as they have given stock market resistance (although it took six years, 2013–2019, following five years of ZIRP and QE, 2008–2013).

The bottom line is the Zionist Fed still wants rates higher (up to 4% to fight a new recession) and Trump wants them lower (to help his chances in 2020 with a booming stock market). Hence the political battle over two open seats on the Fed board.

The U.S.-China trade war is connected to these Fed scenarios. Here’s a scorecard of possible outcomes:

Lower rates and the end the of trade war = Victory lap for Trump.
Lower rates but trade war continues = Trump still wins, but it’s much closer.
Higher rates and end of trade war = Trump can win, but it’s too close for comfort. The Fed could cause a recession before they know it.
Higher rates and the trade war continues = Trump could lose if we tip into recession and farmers suffer.
Obviously, Trump wants the first outcome. He’s counting on his new Fed nominees to deliver rate cuts or at least keep a lid on the existing policy rate. The problem is that Trump is not known for finesse and the Fed is not known for reliable forecasts. Both sides could blunder into a recession and a Trump loss in 2020.

The dynamic favors Trump for now, but all bets are off if we actually have a recession. This is why the fight over Fed vacancies is so important. Trump has to appoint some “friends” (possibly including Judy Shelton) to hold Powell’s feet to the fire on no interest rate hikes, possible interest rate cuts and a quick end to quantitative tightening (QT).

If that happens, we avoid recession and Trump wins. Trump needs to juggle Mueller revenge, base support and Fed policy control to pull off this trifecta. Difficult, but doable.

How to Play the Markets When These Storms Converge
The next six months will present unprecedented challenges for investors. Markets will have to wrestle with fights over impeachment, election attacks and Spygate. Trump will be trying to improve his odds with Fed appointments and an end to the trade wars. Democrats will be trying to derail Trump with investigations, accusations and leaks.

Some of this will be normal political crossfire, but some of it will be deadly serious, including arrests of former senior government officials and revelations of an attempted coup aimed at the president.

None of it will be easy for markets to digest. A storm with no name is coming. The only safe harbors will be gold, cash and Treasury notes. And make sure you have a life preserver handy.  :nod:

Now read on as my collaborator Byron King tells you about another type of storm you should be aware of. Byron gives his insight on the coming battle for economic superiority in the world and the best way to position yourself for big gains. His analysis is below.

 

Trade This Energy Giant for 38% Gains as the U.S.-China Battle Heats Up
As tensions rise in U.S.-China trade talks, the real battle is not over tariffs but whether or not the U.S. will continue as a global economic power. The fight for control of critical resources and supply chains is the new battle for the 21st century. Here’s how to play it for big gains…
By Byron King, Senior Geologist

Jim just described the “Storm With No Name” concerning U.S. politics and the upcoming 2020 election cycle.

Now let’s discuss the Storm With a Name, and that’s China and the ongoing Battle for the 21st Century.

There’s an epic struggle occurring right now, if we know how to interpret events. China has been waging economic war on the U.S. — and on the entire Western world, to be accurate — for over 30 years. And to its great strategic credit, China has been winning this war.

But now the global-level fight has moved from the shadows of commerce, banking and low-key subterfuge into the forefront of economic visibility. And the fight is getting noisier.

Let’s step back and take stock of the battlespace.

Doubtless you’ve read about the ongoing “U.S.-China trade war” or some similar description. More than likely the story you’ve seen is something along the lines of how President Trump has used executive authority to impose tariffs on Chinese goods because of the lopsided U.S.-China trade balance. Or words to that effect…

And now we have a U.S.-China “trade war.” We place tariffs on Chinese stuff. The Chinese place tariffs on U.S. stuff. USA is loosing the war

If you follow most mainstream media themes, it’s all Trump’s fault.

Per media accounts, our current U.S.-China situation is based on some sort of Trumpian “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) trade policy. The China imbroglio is Trump’s characteristic “economic nationalism” writ large. It’s old-fashioned, obsolete “America First!” applied to trade with China. And of course, as with much else about current U.S. politics, it’s “all about Trump.”

Well, that sort of media theme is flat wrong. In fact, it’s pure hogwash, which is about the nicest way I can say it and get this article past the copy editing desk in Baltimore.

Here’s what’s going on with China…

The current trade fight is one skirmish — the first serious engagement, actually — within the Battle for the 21st Century.

Let’s disabuse ourselves of one particular notion. The current state of U.S.-China trade is NOT purely about Trump. But OK, let’s talk about Trump:

Trump is the first U.S. leader in 30 years to recognize and elevate to policy level what has been happening and where things are going with economic relations with China.
He’s the first U.S. leader to frame the issue for what it is, namely, the ongoing deindustrialization of the U.S., courtesy of an entire fifth column within the U.S. and across the Western world, all playing very nicely with Big China Inc./b]
And he’s the first U.S. leader to begin the process of turning things around to prevent — well, to try to prevent! — the U.S. economy from slipping into an irrecoverable flat spin of noncompetitiveness and global irrelevancy.
In order to understand the key point, let’s view things from a different perspective. What if Trump were just another go-along, get-along, run-of-the-mill, “free trade!” U.S. president?

Well, we’d have a U.S.-China “deal” already.

That is, if Trump followed standard advice from the likes of Goldman Sachs and the Davos crowd, if not the editorial pages of both The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, there would be no banner headlines about “Trade War!” Doubtless, the media would slam Trump for something else, but not trade with China.

Let’s do what they call “counterfactual history” at one of my alma maters, the U.S. Naval War College. Let’s say that Trump met with China’s President Xi at the White House — if not at Mar-a-Lago, with its “delicious chocolate cake” — and signed a huge trade deal. Just envision the pomp, including the U.S. Marine Band blaring in the background.

Under the alternative view of events, China would have agreed to buy U.S. wheat and soybeans. Lots and lots of wheat and soybeans. Hogs, too! And probably a whole lot of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The forecast would be for an endless fleet of cargo ships loading up at U.S. piers and bound for China, laden to the gunwales with gazillions of tons of wheat, soybeans, hog bellies and LNG.

Oh, what a glorious victory in the global trade war, eh? Wheat! Soybeans! Hog bellies! LNG!

Most U.S. mainstream media, with their characteristic incompetence at understanding true issues, would have hailed Trump’s “trade victory” over China (“More soybeans!”), and even that would be through the grinding, clenched teeth that come when Trump does anything with which they actually agree.

But really… more wheat, more soybeans, etc., would’ve just been another defeat in the long war that China is waging.

Sure, China would be happy to buy U.S. commodities and energy supplies at dirt-cheap prices. But China can get soybeans elsewhere, along with hog bellies, LNG and much more. Heck, why do you think China has been buying up agricultural land across Africa and South America? Or why are Chinese companies buying energy and mineral rights from Serbia to Saipan?

China doesn’t really need U.S. commodities unless they come at bargain-basement prices. Along these lines, China has spent 30 years working to secure its resource base across the globe. Think in terms of Chinese-owned projects across the world, built by Chinese engineers and workers. Think in terms of goods moving in Chinese ships — a commercial fleet of over 4,000 large cargo vessels. And mostly operating from Chinese-built (if not controlled) ports, from Panama to Pakistan.

Now add in the looming Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in which China will build out roads, rail, airports, power lines, pipelines and whatever else all across Eurasia, from China’s east coast to the cities of western Europe.

All those resources and channels of commerce are intended to support a so-called “Chinese dream” of dominating high-end manufacturing in the 21st century. It’s all about China gaining and keeping the upper hand in precision manufacturing, artificial intelligence, robotics, telecommunications, biological and genetic engineering, access to space and more.

China’s national goal is not simply to displace the U.S. from economic preeminence. It’s to dominate the global economy to the exclusion of every other nation. China will gladly seize market share from U.S. companies, as well as those of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Europe and anywhere else that some company or society has come up with profitable methods of commerce.

For 30 years, China has been waging a military-style campaign to establish its business presence pretty much everywhere, while searching every archive for commercial, scientific and of course military intelligence. It’s all about sending knowledge and resources back home to support the rebuild of China as a key player in the world.

In other words, Trump’s “beef” isn’t about China not buying enough hogs or soybeans. It’s about the trillions of dollars in intellectual property (IP) that the Chinese government and its firms have pirated from U.S. and Western firms over the decades. And it’s about the trillions of dollars in manufacturing capabilities that have “migrated” to China over that time.

We could have a very long article on just the manufacturing capabilities that have departed the U.S. for China. And also, it’s worth noting, departed from England, France, Italy, Germany and a long list of other countries. And I don’t mean low-end manufacturing, like the characteristic “stuff” that moves to the shelves of Walmart and Target and eventually into landfills.

When it comes to China, we’re talking the migration of high-end manufacturing from the West to the Middle Kingdom. It’s everything from computer chips, high-power magnets and solar panels to complex pharmaceuticals and aerospace-grade metals and materials.

In short, entire supply chains for all manner of complex systems are now resident in China, to the near exclusion of the U.S. and many other Western nations. The Battle for the 21st Century will be to recover some of those supply chains to support U.S. and/or Western industry.

One of the biggest elements of the Battle for the 21st Century will be P. China has stolen entire libraries of IP and then some.

For example, I recall a few years ago speaking with a very senior guy from Microsoft. (He’s a household name to most people who know the slightest bit about Microsoft.) He described internal Microsoft estimates that as much as 90% of Microsoft-labeled software running in China was pirated. I asked why Microsoft didn’t just shut down that pirated software when it bounced back to the company servers. “It would create more problems than we want to deal with.”

Another time, I met with a European company that builds high-speed rail systems. They described how China’s entire high-speed rail buildout is founded on stolen tech. Whether it’s the rails and ties, the wheels and axles, couplers, brakes, power systems, you name it, it’s all based on stolen tech, said the rail execs.

In essence, the Chinese bought several examples from foreign builders and demanded extensive technical data. Then they simply copied the basics while adding a few unsubstantive elements to support an argument that the resulting product really was “Chinese” technology.

It gets us back to Trump and the “trade war” with China. It’s really not about how many bushels of soybeans China buys. And it’s not whether or not U.S. consumers should pay 25% tariffs on imported Chinese goods such as washing machines or microwave ovens or anything else.

Trump’s tariffs — and his “trade war” battle — are about whether or not the U.S. will continue in the 21st century as a world-leading economic power.

It’s about whether or not the U.S. will have some semblance of national-level supply chains that support precision manufacturing within an advanced economy.

If the current situation with China doesn’t resolve in favor of the U.S., you can kiss a lot of your future wealth goodbye. Manufacturing and trade will migrate to China even more than we’re already seeing. The U.S. economy will drift downward. The U.S. will continue its transformation into a “financialized” nation, displaying more of what we’ve been seeing for the past 30 years — the wealthy and asset-rich becoming richer, the middle class shrinking into surly, proletarian bitterness.

That’s what’s at stake in this trade war.

Basically the Hegemon Empire of the USA is Fcuke or soon will become the same like other countries around the world.... with the Zionist Banksters running their Government and also the Rest of the world!

 tiphat

Offline Manny

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2019, 03:52:35 PM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2019, 04:43:55 PM »
Yes, that's true. It is no more or less than I have been saying for yonks. Of course, I am not alone in this and claim no great insight, so this guy is just following along. Notice what the money shot of the sales pitch is?

He is pitching a stock.

Now, what is interesting about this piece is that ordinary Americans are being told about this stuff. The buyers and consumers of these sales pitches are not the most sophisticated investors, they are the followers with low information who are flattered by the attention of this kind of huckster. Let us see how matters progress. I think it is significant that now is seen as being the right time to start selling stocks on the basis of U.S plight. The next fear cycle is underway.

I am reminded of previous cycles where late in the cycle similar hucksters with similar offers were operating at the end of the real estate cycle and before that around the end of the dotcom bubble. The sensible money had already made their moves.

I do not recall who said the following, but he was spot on: when taxi drivers and shoeshine boys have stock tips then it is time to leave the market.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2019, 05:08:31 PM »
Yeah but has this guy made anyone wealthy? I mean if not why do you want to subscribe to him?

Its no different to subscribing to a dating site , you want a partner.. if you don't get that partner or close to getting a partner you finish your subscription..

So same with this guy , you subscribe to his what ever take his advice and become richer? If no for why do you need him  ???


Time is money! I think I would loose money even sitting reading all that stuff, I mean if I took all afternoon to sit and read it and figure it out, I already need to make enough to cover those 5/6 hours reading it ???

I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2019, 05:56:22 PM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.


People preaching gloom and doom about the US economy, now that’s original! Not.
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. P. J. O'Rourke

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2019, 02:52:17 AM »
Steve, somebody does get richer from these newsletter pumping schemes. Of course, it is rarely the 'investors' following the advice being pedalled, but the newsletter owners make bank from the subscription fees and the insiders from the manipulated stock prices.

The subscribers, such as cufflinks, certainly do not get rich off it. If they are lucky they don't get burned too badly. Of course, of all the readers of such twaddle, very few actually put a hand in pocket. They are much like the keyboard Romeos in your business, they get to feel good without taking any action or risk.
...everything ends always well; if it’s still bad, then it’s not the end!

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2019, 03:19:53 AM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.


People preaching gloom and doom about the US economy, now that’s original! Not.


One thing you need to understand!! Humans have been around for JUST a few years nothing more..every thing comes to an end how ever much cash you have how ever powerful you are.. your going in a box like every one else .. your going to be down with the earthworms mixing with rich and poor..

Empires come and Empires go.. economies come and economies go.. your not going to change that..


More importantly your sat right on top of the worlds biggest *****. ***** volcano on the planet under the Yellowstone National park.. and ONE day that WILL blow! Nothing you can do about it, maybe next week! maybe in 400 years, maybe in 2000 years but be sure it will go one day..

You'r also sat on the Andreas Fault line and how ever much you increase taxes, poor concrete. down any small splits  :laugh:  One day the whole lot of California is going , yes all of it!! Maybe tomorrow, maybe next month, maybe in 100 years maybe in 1000 years.. BUT it's  going..

So face up to the facts ONE day the US economy is also going..




And dont forget NO Hollywood movie cast will be able to help you when it happens!! 500 fire engines and Bruce Willis will never stop 4 billion tons of molten magma  :laugh:
I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2019, 07:19:31 AM »
LOL Amazing the attitude that one should ignore the advice of experts and instead listen to a bunch of Puffery how China is about to take over the world and we should all invest in vaseline just bend over and take the Phocking and enjoy it.

An intelligent discussion of Rickard's team defensive portfolio will never happen here because intelligence is antithetical to this forum's lead antagonistas.

The Chinese abuse of the WTO has been 100% and now not just the USA but your 4th Reich Euro Masters are feeling the pain of China dismantling their strategic precision manufacturing supported social democracy and will be implementing Euro-wide tariffs on China before the next wave of Euro immigrants is high IQ Chinese workers riding the Belt and Road rails to replace you lot with Chinese owned factories staffed with Red Communist Chinese social score compliant workers.  The true fate of Europe.

Ironic on the 75th Anniversary of D-Day that the EU is populated by 100s of millions of Surrender Monkeys.

News flash - no one has stood up to the Chinese up till now because the Chinese were a cheap slave labor camp to circumvent the West's child labor, occupational safety, and environmental protection laws and were willing to absorb Europe's and North America's factories pollution... However, the Chinese "China 2025" Plan to move up the value chain and dominate all high value add technologies is an existential threat to all Western Democracies and the Chinese are about to find that these markets are closed to their subversive plans.

China is about to see that suing the USA at the WTO is going to backfire in their faces and that China will be forced to comply with WTO rules or lose access to both North American and European Markets.  Australia and NZ have already banned Huawei and ZTE from 5 Eyes domestic and intelligence secure networks.  More to follow.

Top 5 Trade Promises China Has Broken | US China Trade War | China Uncensored

5 Countries That Have Fallen into China's Debt Trap

At least the Australians are taking action:

Book on Chinese Censorship Gets Censored in Australia
Silent Invasion - How China is turning Australia into a Puppet State by Clive Hamilton
A best seller in Taiwan and Hong Kong - go figure.

The only reason China is able to dominate global markets is that hypocritical Euros and North Americans are willing to ignore all our vaunted Human Rights and Environmental Protection laws for profits - especially the Holier than Though Europeans being the most shameful - you all know who and what you are.

Of course the only people with large enough Cajones to force China to mend their evil wicked ways are the Yanks as the Brits Global Empire collapsed a century ago due to your War Mongering arrogant global colonialization including addicting the entire country of China with British grown Opium from East Asia/India - and now the Chinese are exacting their revenge for the 100 years of British lead humiliation.   The Brits and Euros are sewing what they reaped - the USA is looked upon fondly by many Chinese as we drove Imperial Japan out of China in WWII while the Brits were begging us to give them back their Colonies in Burma, Singapore and Hong Kong.    What goes around....

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2019, 07:34:34 AM »
Yes, that's true. It is no more or less than I have been saying for yonks. Of course, I am not alone in this and claim no great insight, so this guy is just following along. Notice what the money shot of the sales pitch is?

He is pitching a stock.

Now, what is interesting about this piece is that ordinary Americans are being told about this stuff. The buyers and consumers of these sales pitches are not the most sophisticated investors, they are the followers with low information who are flattered by the attention of this kind of huckster. Let us see how matters progress. I think it is significant that now is seen as being the right time to start selling stocks on the basis of U.S plight. The next fear cycle is underway.

I am reminded of previous cycles where late in the cycle similar hucksters with similar offers were operating at the end of the real estate cycle and before that around the end of the dotcom bubble. The sensible money had already made their moves.

I do not recall who said the following, but he was spot on: when taxi drivers and shoeshine boys have stock tips then it is time to leave the market.

LOLOLOL Takes a world-class pompous Brit huckster to denigrate a huckster.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2019, 08:27:52 AM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.


People preaching gloom and doom about the US economy, now that’s original! Not.


One thing you need to understand!! Humans have been around for JUST a few years nothing more..every thing comes to an end how ever much cash you have how ever powerful you are.. your going in a box like every one else .. your going to be down with the earthworms mixing with rich and poor..

Empires come and Empires go.. economies come and economies go.. your not going to change that..


More importantly your sat right on top of the worlds biggest *****. ***** volcano on the planet under the Yellowstone National park.. and ONE day that WILL blow! Nothing you can do about it, maybe next week! maybe in 400 years, maybe in 2000 years but be sure it will go one day..

You'r also sat on the Andreas Fault line and how ever much you increase taxes, poor concrete. down any small splits  :laugh:  One day the whole lot of California is going , yes all of it!! Maybe tomorrow, maybe next month, maybe in 100 years maybe in 1000 years.. BUT it's  going..

So face up to the facts ONE day the US economy is also going..




And dont forget NO Hollywood movie cast will be able to help you when it happens!! 500 fire engines and Bruce Willis will never stop 4 billion tons of molten magma  :laugh:

I actually love that movie and Woodrow Tracy Harrelson kukoo like coco nuts Character was epic...  there may be a scintilla of intelligence on this forum after all.

Of course, when Yellowstone Blows it will dwarf Krakatoa and send the entire globe into a decade long volcanic global winter. 

We are already investing in Urban Indoor Vertical Farming with multiple gear-driven vertically stacked decks of organic produce so at least some of us with the sense to invest in life-sustaining technologies will not be starving.  You lot who hate investments will unfortunately starve.  Ignorance is bliss until it is not.


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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2019, 08:51:24 AM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.


People preaching gloom and doom about the US economy, now that’s original! Not.


One thing you need to understand!! Humans have been around for JUST a few years nothing more..every thing comes to an end how ever much cash you have how ever powerful you are.. your going in a box like every one else .. your going to be down with the earthworms mixing with rich and poor..

Empires come and Empires go.. economies come and economies go.. your not going to change that..


More importantly your sat right on top of the worlds biggest *****. ***** volcano on the planet under the Yellowstone National park.. and ONE day that WILL blow! Nothing you can do about it, maybe next week! maybe in 400 years, maybe in 2000 years but be sure it will go one day..

You'r also sat on the Andreas Fault line and how ever much you increase taxes, poor concrete. down any small splits  :laugh:  One day the whole lot of California is going , yes all of it!! Maybe tomorrow, maybe next month, maybe in 100 years maybe in 1000 years.. BUT it's  going..

So face up to the facts ONE day the US economy is also going..




And dont forget NO Hollywood movie cast will be able to help you when it happens!! 500 fire engines and Bruce Willis will never stop 4 billion tons of molten magma  :laugh:

I actually love that movie and Woodrow Tracy Harrelson kukoo like coco nuts Character was epic...  there may be a scintilla of intelligence on this forum after all.

Of course, when Yellowstone Blows it will dwarf Krakatoa and send the entire globe into a decade long volcanic global winter. 

We are already investing in Urban Indoor Vertical Farming with multiple gear-driven vertically stacked decks of organic produce so at least some of us with the sense to invest in life-sustaining technologies will not be starving.  You lot who hate investments will unfortunately starve.  Ignorance is bliss until it is not.

Yeah!! Brilliant character ..I liked his back pack..


I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2019, 10:30:23 AM »
Is the Global Tide Turning Against China? | Clive Hamilton (An Australian Patriot's Point of View).

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2019, 01:50:31 PM »
Is the Global Tide Turning Against China? | Clive Hamilton (An Australian Patriot's Point of View).

Curious - Russia and the CFRCs (Communist Freaking Red Chinese) may not be such close allies after all...

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2019, 05:49:58 PM »

Corporate Debt:
Origin of Next Crisis
Email Alert Tues 4 June 2019
By Jim Rickards

The case for a pending financial collapse is well grounded. Financial crises occur on a regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08. That averages out to about once every five years for the past thirty years. There has not been a financial crisis for ten years so the world is overdue. It’s also the case that each crisis is bigger than the one before and requires more intervention by the central banks.

The reason has to do with the system scale. In complex dynamic systems such as capital markets, risk is an exponential function of system scale. Increasing market scale correlates with exponentially larger market collapses.

In basic terms, this means a market panic far larger than the Panic of 2008.

Today, systemic risk is more dangerous than ever because the entire system is larger than before. Due to central bank intervention, total global debt has increased over $150 trillion over the past 15 years. Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, have a larger percentage of the total assets of the banking system and have much larger derivatives books.

Each credit and liquidity crisis starts out differently and ends up the same. Each crisis begins with distress in a particular overborrowed sector and then spreads from sector to sector until the whole world is screaming, “I want my money back!”

First, one asset class has a surprise drop. The leveraged investors sell the sinking asset, but soon the asset is unwanted by anyone. Margin calls roll in. Investors then sell good assets to raise cash to meet the margin calls. This spreads the panic to banks and dealers who were not originally involved with the weak asset.

Soon the contagion spreads to all banks and assets, as everyone wants their money back all at once. Banks begin to fail, panic spreads and finally central banks step in to separate winners and losers and re-liquefy the system for the benefit of the winners.

Typically, small investors (and some bankrupt banks) get hurt the worst while the big banks get bailed out and live to fight another day.

That much panics have in common. What varies in financial panics is not how they end but how they begin. The 1987 crash started with computerized trading. The 1994 panic began in Mexico. The 1997–98 panic started in Asian emerging markets but soon spread to Russia and the big banks. The 2000 crash began with dot-coms. The 2008 panic was triggered by defaults in subprime mortgages.

The problem is that regulators are like generals fighting the last war. In 2008, the global financial crisis started in the U.S. mortgage market and spread quickly to the overleveraged banking sector.

Since then, mortgage lending standards have been tightened considerably and bank capital requirements have been raised steeply. Banks and mortgage lenders may be safer today, but the system is not. Risk has simply shifted.

What will trigger the next panic?

One of the questions I am asked most frequently in my global travels is what will be the cause of the next financial crisis.

My answer is always the same: We can be certain the crisis is coming and can estimate its magnitude, but no one knows exactly when it will happen or what the specific catalyst will be.

When it happens, it could unfold very quickly. There may not be time or opportunity in the middle of the crisis to take defensive measures. That’s why I keep reminding my readers that the time to prepare by increasing allocations to cash and gold is now.

With that said, it is useful to consider the most likely flash points for the next crisis and to monitor events as a way to improve one’s chances of seeing a crisis at the early stages.

So many credit crises are brewing, it’s hard to keep track without a scorecard. The mother of all credit crises is coming to China with over a quarter-trillion dollars owed by insolvent banks and state-owned enterprises, not to mention off-the-books liabilities of provincial governments, wealth management products and developers of white elephant infrastructure projects.

Then there’s a possible emerging-markets credit crisis, with a parade of potentially bankrupt borrowers vulnerable to hot money capital outflows and a slowdown of growth in developing economies.

Close on their heels is the U.S. student loan debacle, with over $1.5 trillion in outstanding debts and default rates approaching 20%.

Now we’re facing a devastating wave of junk bond defaults. The next financial collapse, already on our radar screen, will quite possibly come from junk bonds. That’s not my view alone.

Prominent economist Carmen Reinhart, for example, says the place to watch is U.S. high-yield debt, aka “junk bonds.”

Since the great financial crisis, extremely low interest rates allowed the total number of highly speculative corporate bonds, or “junk bonds,” to rise about 60% — a record high. Many businesses became extremely leveraged as a result. Estimates put the total amount of junk bonds outstanding at about $3.7 trillion.

The danger is that when the next downturn comes, many corporations will be unable to service their debt. Defaults will spread throughout the system like a deadly contagion, and the damage will be enormous.

This is from a report by Mariarosa Verde, Moody’s senior credit officer:

This extended period of benign credit conditions has helped many weak, highly leveraged companies to avoid default… These companies are poised to default when credit conditions eventually become more difficult… The record number of highly leveraged companies has set the stage for a particularly large wave of defaults when the next period of broad economic stress eventually arrives.

If default rates are only 10% — a conservative assumption — this corporate debt fiasco will be at least six times larger than the subprime losses in 2007-08.

For now, it’s not clear which way things will break next. Volatility is back and markets are still in a precarious position.

But the stock market is ultimately going to collapse in the face of rising credit losses and tightening credit conditions. Once the tsunami hits, no one will be spared. When it does hit, many investors will be caught completely unprepared.

You don’t want to be heavily exposed to these markets. It’s far better to get out too early than too late. Once the market falls apart, it’ll be too late to act.

That’s why now is the time to buy gold, while it’s still cheap (even with its recent run-up). When you need it most, once the crisis hits, it’ll cost a fortune. Preparation means 10% percent of your investible assets in gold (and possibly silver) and another 30% in cash.

That allocation will preserve wealth and provide dry powder for bottom-fishing in the crisis to come.

Regards,

Jim Rickards

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2019, 06:41:43 PM »
Just in time for next year's Presidential and National Elections:

Silicon Valley Battered as Washington Turns Up Antitrust Heat
By David McLaughlin
June 3, 2019, 12:55 PM EDT Updated on June 3, 2019, 7:25 PM EDT
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/silicon-valley-targeted-by-u-s-agencies-over-antitrust-concerns

Technology giants are girding for sweeping investigations into their business practices as top U.S. antitrust officials and lawmakers carved out a battle plan targeting Silicon Valley’s best-known names, sending shares tumbling and raising the prospect of a drawn-out fight with the government.

The House Judiciary Committee said late Monday it plans a bipartisan investigation into whether digital platform companies are using their market power to harm competition. That move heightens scrutiny of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. after news that top antitrust officials have agreed to divvy up oversight of several technology giants.

The Federal Trade Commission will take responsibility for antitrust probes of Facebook and Amazon, while the Justice Department is set to open an investigation of Google, according to people familiar with the matter. The Justice Department will also oversee scrutiny of Apple Inc., one of the people said.

By parceling out antitrust oversight, the U.S. government has set the stage for formal inquiries and escalated pressure on the companies amid increasing criticism that their practices are harming competition in digital markets. After years of being hands off on the industry, enforcers are on the verge of opening broad investigations that could yield significant changes to how the companies do business and potentially lead to a break up of a company.

“It has been building to a fever pitch of over the last six to 12 months," said Michael Carrier, a law professor at Rutgers University. "There’s general unease these companies have too much power, and it really crosses the political aisle."

Shares of technology companies fell on the news of the broad agreement between the Justice Department and the FTC, which could have ramifications across the industry. They also have to contend with the inquiry by the House’s antitrust panel, led by Representative David Cicilline, a Rhode Island Democrat

"This is a very serious investigation. It will be very broad. We will conduct hearings, we will conduct witness interviews, we’ll do depositions, we’ll do document requests," Cicilline said.

Alphabet dropped 6.1% to $1,036.23 in New York. Amazon fell 4.6% to $1,692.69, while Facebook slid 7.5% to $164.15, the most since July 2018. Apple shares fell 1% to $173.30.


Google, Facebook and Amazon declined to comment, as did the Justice Department and the FTC. Apple didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The antitrust division of the Justice Department and the FTC share antitrust enforcement and typically agree to divide up scrutiny of companies depending on their expertise. Over the years they have passed Google back and forth. Under an earlier agreement, the FTC oversaw a broad investigation into Google’s search practices, while the antitrust division reviewed mergers in the advertising and online travel sectors.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2019, 11:29:18 PM »
He is basically saying the US is skint and Trump is trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted.

US sanctions on China, like Russia, are here to stay.

I’ve said it before: the US will go down screaming and lashing out. This is what we are seeing.

"Manny" summit up nicely but some people like "Cuffy" think they are talking to black Indians on the Amazon or the brain washed Simple American people...... to sell his crap financial items, offering us  presents .... small mirrors.

Well he forgets that the Brits have fcuk his country for centuries and appears he never has learned from that experience.

Here is an educating article for him to learn: Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com

The Peasants’ Revolt

In 2016, James Delingpole commented that toffs hate Brexit because it’s the Peasants’ Revolt.

For non-British readers, the word “toff” is a shortened form of “toffee-nosed,” a slang term for the rich or upper class. But more important is the reference to the Peasant Revolt of 1381, which is little-known on the western side of the Atlantic.

In fourteenth century England, the cost of ongoing warfare placed politicians in a situation in which they either had to concede the war, cut their own emoluments, or increase taxation significantly. As politicians always do, they chose the latter.

Revenue from the resultant poll tax proved to be less than anticipated, as large numbers of people found ways to evade the tax. The tax commissioners were then given wide latitude in the methods they chose to facilitate collection.


As is almost always the case, whenever authorities are given too much latitude, they use it abusively.

In May of 1381, the authorities confronted the people of Brentwood, Essex. The people were unanimous in their anger toward the authorities, as they already considered the tax to be an abuse of authority. In a confrontation attended by hundreds of citizens, a shop owner, Thomas Baker, announced to the commissioner, “All of these folk have already paid their taxes. You won’t get a penny more from them.”

The commissioner then ordered the arrest of one hundred people chosen at random. But outnumbered, the authorities were driven back. Reinforcements were brought in the next day. But by this time, more peasants had joined the previous day’s group, and armed conflict ensued.

Six of the authorities were beheaded. At this point, there was no turning back. The peasants had a taste of freedom and would not give it up easily.

Word got round the county, and riots spread quickly across Essex and beyond. Coded messages passed from one community to another were the fourteenth century’s equivalent to the internet today, in that it was the quickest way to anonymously pass information between those who resolved to rebel against the powers that be.

Protesters were arrested in several counties, and only eight days after the first incident, the rebels had organized well enough to create an assault on Rochester Castle in Maidstone, Kent, to free their compatriots.

In this short time, they had already become organised enough to form militia groups and create a small crusade. Importantly, the peasants had been joined by many from the middle classes, who had also been subjected to the poll tax.

Within two months, they numbered in the thousands, and riders from counties surrounding London simultaneously launched an attack on the capital. By the time the rebels reached the Tower of London, they were 60,000 strong – half again the population of London.

At the time, the British army were overseas, waging war on France. The king and his ministers had never anticipated a rebellion and were caught unprepared. They were holed up in the Tower, where they would likely be safe, but the guard were not sufficient in numbers for the king to leave safely.

When the rebels crossed London Bridge and entered the city, they simply took over, as, even though they were not well-armed, they were too numerous to control.

It’s important to note that a key to the success of the rebellion was that it cut across social classes. The poll tax was paid by all classes, and even those who didn’t join the rebels, in many cases sympathized with them, including the soldiers, many of whom switched sides.

When the rebels arrived at the Tower, the drawbridge had been lowered and the king accepted defeat. Significantly, the rebels’ primary focus was Simon Sudbury, who was at that time the Archbishop of Canterbury, the Lord Chancellor of England, and the head tax collector. He was taken and executed with no resistance from the king. The rebels then presented their demands, which were:

1: An end to bonded labour (the end of serfdom);

2: Freedom to trade (a free market);

3: A national limit as to the rent that could be charged for farmland; and

4: No rebel was to be punished for being involved in the uprising.

The king, having no wiggle room, signed a charter agreeing to all terms under the sole condition that his personal rule be undiminished – a condition that was accepted.

If this were the end of the story, it would be a great tale of David and Goliath, or as stated in the old Texas Rangers’ motto, “Little man whip a big man every time, if the little man’s in the right and keeps a-comin’.”

But of course it didn’t end there.

After the king had acceded to all demands, the rebels disbursed. Once they were down to just a few hundred in number, they were set upon and killed. The tax was repealed, but none of the freedoms that had been promised were delivered upon.

And as incredible as it may seem, that was the end of the matter. Once life was merely tolerable again, the people of England caved in and accepted subjugation to the king. Once the tax was gone, they abandoned their quest for more meaningful freedom.

Why is this story pertinent now?

Well, Britain is again deeply in the hole economically, and there is no way out except to get the crash over with, live with a crisis for a period of years, then begin a recovery. This is something that politicians worldwide never choose to do. They will always choose to ride the problem into the ground, making the problem worse but buying themselves months, or possibly a few more years, in office.

Worse, Britain has come under the subjugation of the EU. A rebellion in the form of the Brexit Referendum has taken place, and the rebels have won. The government then fully agreed to create a Brexit agreement.

Then they pulled the switcheroo, as in 1381. Once the “peasants” had been placated and put down their pitchforks, government created an agreement that is in no way a Brexit. The agreement removes EU rights from Britain but continues to enslave Britain to the EU. Interestingly, in the midst of all the rhetoric on British television as to whether it’s a good deal or a bad deal, no one seems to have gotten around to stating, “But this agreement isn’t a Brexit at all. It’s a perverse form of remain.”

As this charade plays out on the nightly news, we shall find out what the state of the UK will be when the dust settles. However, we should take this time to recognize that Brexit was a twenty-first century form of the Peasants’ Revolt – a time when the population had the government running scared but made the mistake of accepting the continued leadership of those who created the problem in the first place.

Whatever country we are from, we should be reminded that, no matter how reasonable or conciliatory this may seem, putting the fox back in the henhouse is never the answer.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #21 on: June 05, 2019, 01:30:22 AM »
Wiz,

WHAT ARE you talking about ?

Pretending to understand stuff, again ? ... 

Toffs ' hating Brexit' ?

Toffs like Rees-Mogg and his 'sis, Boris, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, etc.... ? 


As ever  I see your finger is on the pulse and you found some other out of touch journo's scribes to crib  as 'validation'  :chuckle:


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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #22 on: June 05, 2019, 03:40:40 AM »
America has a huge problem that it shares with the rest of the world.

Some companies have become experts in tax-evading (Apple, Facebook, Google, etc.) and are not contributing to society with their money.

Trillions of dollars are flowing away to the big-tech without spending said money in America through taxes or purchasing stuff.
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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2019, 11:50:46 AM »
America has a huge problem that it shares with the rest of the world.

Some companies have become experts in tax-evading (Apple, Facebook, Google, etc.) and are not contributing to society with their money.

Trillions of dollars are flowing away to the big-tech without spending said money in America through taxes or purchasing stuff.

I guarantee that all of the FAANGS Facebook Apple, Alphabet, Netflix, Google and every other major US Company's employees through weekly payroll deductions pay enormous Federal Income Tax, Medicare Tax, SocialSecurity Tax, State Workmen's Comp and Unemployment insurance - mandatory - no way around those taxes - so Saying the large Corporations "Pay No Taxes" is pure Marxist Socialist Communist Bull shite to destroy the USA Economy.

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Re: How to Survive Global Chaos with Strategic Intelligence
« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2019, 12:46:53 PM »
America has a huge problem that it shares with the rest of the world.

Some companies have become experts in tax-evading (Apple, Facebook, Google, etc.) and are not contributing to society with their money.

Trillions of dollars are flowing away to the big-tech without spending said money in America through taxes or purchasing stuff.

I guarantee that all of the FAANGS Facebook Apple, Alphabet, Netflix, Google and every other major US Company's employees through weekly payroll deductions pay enormous Federal Income Tax, Medicare Tax, SocialSecurity Tax, State Workmen's Comp and Unemployment insurance - mandatory - no way around those taxes - so Saying the large Corporations "Pay No Taxes" is pure Marxist Socialist Communist Bull shite to destroy the USA Economy.

Obviously something happen to you lately as all your posts are a delirium behaviour of not connected messages. Are you by any chance smoking something?

Mark pointed out that all large Corporations via various tax avoidance schemes do not pay CORPORATION TAX AND ONLY THE employees OF THE COMPANY pay taxes to the State.

In the UK and Europe the Employee pay Income Tax and National Insurance too to cover Health, Pension etc. The Employer pay too for the Employee and on top of that the Company has to pay Corporation tax too on their profits.......of the company.

Ask anyboy here who run his own busisness...... will tell you .

Finally the only one who talks Bullshit..... it's you dear Caffy!

 :ROFL: