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Author Topic: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia  (Read 3624 times)

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Online Tom Cat

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American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« on: December 31, 2018, 02:40:26 PM »
Not a good way to end the year.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/12/31/paul-whelan-american-arrested-russia-spy-charges/2448683002/
Don't shoot the messenger, links to articles posted, don't necessarily reflect my personal opinion.

Online BillyB

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2018, 02:53:05 PM »

Standard procedure before negotiations for a spy or criminal swap.

Online Omega1982

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2018, 06:48:47 PM »
Is it safe to go to Russia now as an American? 


Offline AvHdB

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2018, 07:25:31 PM »
Is it safe to go to Russia now as an American?

Well it is one way to influence your countries tourist income.
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Online Omega1982

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2018, 08:10:27 PM »
it definitely affects tourism.  if its politically motivated then any innocent tourist could be a target. 

Online andrewfi

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2018, 11:02:44 PM »
Whether or not the Russian woman is an intelligence agent, I think that the American guy very probably is.

If this is to become the basis of a swap then it makes sense for Russia to take a real piece off the board. There's two obvious reasons:
1. Taking out a real agent serves to decrease the operational effectiveness of the United States in Russia.
2. A genuine spy is likely to be a bigger and more valuable bargaining piece than some random tourist.
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Online msmoby

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2019, 12:14:43 AM »
Whether or not the Russian woman is an intelligence agent, I think that the American guy very probably is.

..and the basis for that conclusion is...?


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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2019, 04:45:06 AM »
Whether or not the Russian woman is an intelligence agent, I think that the American guy very probably is.

..and the basis for that conclusion is...?

Because the FSB said so?

Its basicly the same with Maria Butina, except the countries are reversed.

(And no, confessing after months of solitary confinement isn't a worthy confession)
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Offline Manny

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #8 on: January 01, 2019, 06:03:39 AM »
Is it safe to go to Russia now as an American?

I expect you'll be fine if not a spy.

Online msmoby

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2019, 06:46:21 AM »
or a bit like being a Canadian - if in China ? ...


Online andrewfi

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2019, 09:09:03 AM »
Whether or not the Russian woman is an intelligence agent, I think that the American guy very probably is.

..and the basis for that conclusion is...?

Reading getting harder for you? (among the few things that are still getting harder these days, eh?)
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Offline SL0413

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »
Whether or not the Russian woman is an intelligence agent, I think that the American guy very probably is.

If this is to become the basis of a swap then it makes sense for Russia to take a real piece off the board. There's two obvious reasons:
1. Taking out a real agent serves to decrease the operational effectiveness of the United States in Russia.
2. A genuine spy is likely to be a bigger and more valuable bargaining piece than some random tourist.

Why is the American an intelligent agent?

There were months of stories about Maria Butina.  Then there is just a couple of paragraphs about the American, who was only there about a week to attend a wedding of a friend.  And yet the "American guy very probably is"...  What???





Online andrewfi

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2019, 09:47:07 AM »
Read what I wrote and get back to me. The number of days spent in Russia is irrelevant as, on reflection, I am sure you will agree.
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Online msmoby

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2019, 10:07:34 AM »


Reading getting harder for you? (among the few things that are still getting harder these days, eh?)

NOTHING you wrote gave any near plausible explanation - hence the question - ALL you offered up was an opinion

Offline SL0413

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2019, 02:16:03 PM »
Read what I wrote and get back to me. The number of days spent in Russia is irrelevant as, on reflection, I am sure you will agree.

Yes, I have read it.  Please stop misdirecting and state why the "American guy very probably is" an intelligent agent.  Or leave it vague and make it look like an informed opinion, as you are doing.

You follow it up with statements to "take a real piece off the board", making an assumed inference that the American is an intelligent agent.  I assume you think that the act of arresting the American automatically makes him "very probably" an agent?   I would offer the counter view that arresting someone who is an easy target - ex US military, current occupation in corporate security - can make it easy to turn the opinion of those with FSU bias to support them when they do not offer up any other evidence.

He may or may not be.  There has not been much information provided, other than the accusation by Russia and denials by family. 

I liked you sly comment of "whether or not the Russian woman" with the follow up that the american is very probable.  Nice wordplay to infer that the Russian woman is likely not an agent by contrary association, without direct statement. 


Offline Manny

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2019, 03:08:23 PM »
The guys brother is on Twitter claiming he is a regular bloke, although he would wouldn't he? 

Not many Americans attend weddings of friends in Russia. Lets face it, not many Americans have passports even. And Russia is like the 'bogey man' over there so this guy is way beyond the norm in any event. 

Offline AvHdB

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2019, 03:55:31 PM »
It seems the person under arrest was a US Marine. He served in Iraq. Since retiring he was made numerous personal trips to Russia. This trip was to attend another ex-Marine's wedding to a Russian woman.

He is some sort of director/executive at Borg-Warner a company that makes automotive/truck parts in the mid-West. He is responsible for security at a production facility in America and on a regular basis visits international facilities to inspect there security.

So it makes sense he has a passport. The Marines are a tight 'fraternity' so attending a wedding in a country that you have visited numerous times makes sense. Not all American's are fearful of Russians some are even best friends.

Russia has not provided any evidence or proof regarding guilt, why does that sound so familiar?
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Offline Manny

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2019, 04:39:47 PM »
I'm not intimately acquainted with the case, but Russia doesn't have form for making stuff like this up. The Yanks will have spies in there so why catch a bloke that isn't one if they can catch one that is? Russian intelligence isn't shabby.

There is probably much we don't yet know here.

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2019, 05:08:04 PM »
The guy had to have contacted someone of interest to get noticed. Just visiting to attend a wedding ain't gonna sound any alarms.
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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #19 on: January 01, 2019, 09:00:35 PM »
it definitely affects tourism.  if its politically motivated then any innocent tourist could be a target.

The truth whether the American is a spy or is a tourist really doesn't matter. Russia needs an American to trade for a Russian. They may pick up another American if they feel the need. I think they hate the Russian bride seekers the most since it affects their population growth.

Westerners will take notice and some will cancel vacations to Russia. Russia knows this but will do what they think is in their best interest.

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2019, 09:12:29 PM »
t Russia doesn't have form for making stuff like this up.



IF I was allowed to edit my own profile my current sig would read ," He really did say that" with a 'straight' face ;)

The Americans are no angels, either re getting suspects into custody .





 

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #21 on: January 02, 2019, 05:10:59 AM »
IF I was allowed to edit my own profile my current sig would read ," He really did say that"

There ya go.

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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #22 on: January 02, 2019, 09:11:15 AM »
The FSB stated they caught him in the act. Still no further details on how/where
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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #23 on: January 02, 2019, 03:09:12 PM »
There's plenty of spies in Russia. There's no need to pick up somebody who isn't one. Of course, the USA would say that the guy was innocent. That's the script.

So, Occam's Razor suggests that he is a spy and that he was picked up whilst in the act.

Does that same rule apply to the Russian woman? I think less strongly because there were domestic political needs met by her arrest that had nothing directly to do with Russia.

If one were to ask if it was risky to be a Russian visiting the USA, I'd be much more cautious about saying that there was no risk whilst not being so cautious about American people visiting Russia.

However, if one were to ask if the guy was picked up in order to facilitate an exchange, I'd be thinking that he was, that's because the Russians are probably happy to have a bunch of spies that they know about and are watching.

The new guy is a very low value target, arresting him gives away little or nothing about their counter intelligence operations and, it would seem likely that he was not very good at his job.

It is my guess that there's a number of people who are likely to raise a flag and are surveilled on arrival in foreign countries. From what I have read about this guy, I would have expected that he would have been under surveillance from the moment that he boarded his flight to Moscow.
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Re: American suspected or spying arrested in Russia
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2019, 08:43:05 PM »

The American who was arrested in Russia got a dishonorable discharge for larceny when he was a Sargent in the military. There's a strict vetting process before someone can work as a spy, in an intelligence agency, and trusted with secrets. I serious doubt America's intelligence agencies would trust a thief who betrayed his country to work for us again.