The End of the Euro is Close!

[Contrarian]

The end of the Euro is closer than you think!

Against this background, it is now important to watch Italy closely. The European Commission has demanded that Italy’s new government, which has vowed to end the country’s economic malaise, revise its budget, curbing spending and shrinking the deficit. But unlike Greece, Italy isn’t a pushover.

Matteo Salvini, leader of the Northern League, has labeled Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, an “enemy of Europe,” and called the euro “Germany’s currency,” adding that it “was, is, and will remain a mistake."


https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-end-of-euro-is-closer-than-you-think.html


https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-euros-demise-will-happen-sooner-than-many-people-expect-1542406392

[Wiz]

 

[Contrarian]

 

But unlike Greece, Italy isn’t a pushover.

 

[andrewfi]

No, I don't think so.

[SL0413]

I was in Spain when they switched from pesetas to euros. The politicians promised to keep the prices exactly the same.  I think when they converted it was 3.5 pesetas for 1 euro.  The toll booths were 2 pesetas, 3 pesetas, 5 pesetas, etc.

After the conversion the tolls were 0.63, 0.87, 1.18.  They had to install credit card readers for the automated lanes instead of the coin collecting machines.

A colleage complained that the politicians lied.  Coffee at baristas were 3 pesetas, after conversion they charged 1 euro! 

[Contrarian]

No, I don't think so.

You don't think that Italy is a pushover? I agree but it's going to cause some problems.

[andrewfi]

SLO413, I think that either your recollection or your Spanish skills are failing you here.

1) Politicians did NOT promise that prices would remain exactly the same. At the time Spaniards, just as with all the other countries that joined the EU, were told that prices could and would change, but three were various controls upon how much. It was known that there would be a one time hit upon annual inflation and, of course, there was. The reason was, as you noted, the impossibility of translating pricing under one money system to another without any changes.

2) One can still pay for Spanish road tolls with cash, and many, many people still do to the annoyance and impatience of those drivers behind them in the queue. Credit cards are much more popular because they are fast and convenient. Nowadays though, for regular users of Spanish toll roads, it is becoming pretty common to use an electronic carnet which, in most cases, removes the delays due to payments and, often, gives very significant discounts. Credit card payment was not due to the coming of the Euro, but it may have been delayed until that time due to the cost of changing over.

Confederate, I was referring to the Euro. it would be an ill-informed mistake to assume that the EUro is going to disappear, indeed, given the global process of movement toward multiple payment systems and away from dollar hegemony, the Euro will become even more important than it now is and so will be protected by use - just as Russia, for example, is now doing.

[Wiz]

1) Politicians did NOT promise that prices would remain exactly the same. At the time Spaniards, just as with all the other countries that joined the EU, were told that prices could and would change, but three were various controls upon how much. It was known that there would be a one time hit upon annual inflation and, of course, there was. The reason was, as you noted, the impossibility of translating pricing under one money system to another without any changes.

I have a different view regarding the exchange rates when joining the Euro and the Eurozone. Of course as we all know the politicians are lying big time, see Brexit comments today, and that was what happened back in 2000 when Greece also joined the Eurozone.

The subjugation of the economies and invasion of all the EU Nations under a common currency was a well designed and executed plan between the FED Reserve Bank, the American Wall Street Banksters and also Germany, the US European Vassal till 2099 and leading economic power in the EU.

For the above mentioned American Plan, I will translate and post here an article which I posted in a Greek site...in 2013 titled: "The perfect crime is the one .... that is Legal".

Greece joined the European Union in 1981, and adopted the Euro in 2001 in time to be among the first wave of countries to launch euro banknotes and coins on 1/01/2002. In January 2002, I happen to be in Greece in the island of Kos where I experienced first hand the death of the Ancient Greek Drachma and the intro of the EURO.

Before the new currency the Greek drachma was pegged to the US Dollar and it economy was steady and was moving without any large sudden market movements. What happen then was that the cost of living went up by over 80% overnight and as you read the economy has never recovered and Greece is in a perpetual debt spiral till 2110 and will remain there until some kind of revolt take place.

The conversion from Drachma to Euro was agreed to 1 EURO = 342 Drachma.

A coffee in a Greek Cafe was costing 500 Drachma which = to Euro 1.45 cent.
Coffee after the conversion wa costing Euro 2.50 to 2.80. an increase of average 85% and that is how Greece went Bust. Forget the bailout loans etc..... it will never will be paid as it's Impossible. Yes those in charge socialists were all Criminals and Traitors and destroyed the country.

Meanwhile Germany during the first 10 years that changed the Mark for Euro, has not given any salary rises and achieved to devalue its Economy at the detriment of the other EZ countries.

3) Confederate, I was referring to the Euro. it would be an ill-informed mistake to assume that the EUro is going to disappear, indeed, given the global process of movement toward multiple payment systems and away from dollar hegemony, the Euro will become even more important than it now is and so will be protected by use - just as Russia, for example, is now doing.

The EURO was created by Robert Mantel from the Chicago University as a counter balance currency to the Dollars and will stay alive until the American's find it useful.

BTW with the introduction of the EURO it was agreed that the max budget deficit is 30%. The first country to break this requirement was Germany and then France.

The new Government of Italy will make changes to salaries and other items have agreed to increase the deficit from 2.1% to 2.4 %. What is important to know is that the very industrialised Italy 80 % of its Debt was borrowed internally and not from the ECB Salvini kai his Goverment don't give a shite about the EU and te German threats ....... Italy is not Greece and the Italians know who will loose heavily, Germany. I am sure you must heard Salvini talking about Junker.....

That is all for now......

 

[Markje]

Oh a man can dream...

[Contrarian]

Oh a man can dream...

It seems to me that Norway, Switzerland and the UK were wise to retain control of their own currency!

After hearing about how much inflation was involved in the Greek conversion, wow, that's insane!

Yes every man and every country should dream of being sovereign, anything less is close to slavery.

[AvHdB]

Oh a man can dream...

It seems to me that Norway, Switzerland and the UK were wise to retain control of their own currency!

After hearing about how much inflation was involved in the Greek conversion, wow, that's insane!

Yes every man and every country should dream of being sovereign, anything less is close to slavery.

The inflation was not limited to Greece. Look at the price of a tap (pilsje) of beer pre EURO and post as well as real estate in the center of The Netherlands.

[andrewfi]

I think some people are getting confused about how money works. The change to the Euro was a one-off effect that occurred at a particular time - the changeover period of the currencies s period of a few weeks, with the price increases occurring on the day of the changeover. It was, to some degree, an inevitable issue caused by pricing and labelling necessities and to some degree from profiteering by some, but not all, vendors.

The price of housing going up might well be inflationary but has nothing to do with the change to the Euro.

But, yeah, easy to blame the euro for other problems, saves having to know stuff and enables one to maintain one's ignorant prejudices.

[Contrarian]

I think some people are getting confused about how money works. The change to the Euro was a one-off effect that occurred at a particular time - the changeover period of the currencies s period of a few weeks, with the price increases occurring on the day of the changeover. It was, to some degree, an inevitable issue caused by pricing and labelling necessities and to some degree from profiteering by some, but not all, vendors.

The price of housing going up might well be inflationary but has nothing to do with the change to the Euro.

But, yeah, easy to blame the euro for other problems, saves having to know stuff and enables one to maintain one's ignorant prejudices.

Will you be encouraging UK to give up the Pound and go to the Euro?

[Wiz]

I think some people are getting confused about how money works. The change to the Euro was a one-off effect that occurred at a particular time - the changeover period of the currencies s period of a few weeks, with the price increases occurring on the day of the changeover. It was, to some degree, an inevitable issue caused by pricing and labelling necessities and to some degree from profiteering by some, but not all, vendors.

The price of housing going up might well be inflationary but has nothing to do with the change to the Euro.

But, yeah, easy to blame the euro for other problems, saves having to know stuff and enables one to maintain one's ignorant prejudices.

For your information in Greece, officially, always there was price control in Bars, Restaurants and shops selling food products that not only were/are inspected but also must have permission before displaying any prices. Of course there is corruption but not in shops serving local people, if they want to survive and prosper.

An honest Democratic Government and not a Treacherous corrupt political system should have not agreed to the above exchange rate and would make sure to accept/impose a more reasonable one thus minimising the inflation rate and cost to the real economy. Remember the Greek Drachma was not traded in the international Money Markets! I am sure a slight variation of the exchange rate could take care of all the issues you mention including VAT etc. but these traitors, Greek politicians of the PASOK party, were part of the American banksters plan to expand and loot all European Nations with impunity.

What took place after the 2010 and the bail out loans from the ECB, was nothing more than a transfer/conversion of Private banking debts to the state and the backs of the Greek people. The loan funds were used to buy Greek Bonds from the German and French Banks, because in reality those Greek banks and Greece were unofficially..... BUST. So the Germans saved their own banks and made money at the same time from their guarantees to ECB. Not one EUro went to the Greek economy!

The house prices....went not up but down to the bottom of the barrel.

Today in Greece the current Syriza Government, new traitors of the system, are auctioning the houses of the Greek people, while they hide their corrupt money in offshore accounts........ long list of scandals have come out and still continue...!

Finally I bow to your superior education and knowledge about economics but I guess you are not aware of the REAL reasons for the creation of the Euro and the Eurozone. You only have to look at who were/are the beneficiaries and then you will understand the truth.

BTW keep an eye to the latest events about Brexit and you will realise that the unelected EU representatives, Junger, Tusk etc, of the Banksters and the Germans ..... have Fcuked T. May and the UK, Royally!

 

Read this post:

http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,26117.msg453210.html#msg453210

[Wiz]

BTW with the introduction of the EURO it was agreed that the max budget deficit is 30%. The first country to break this requirement was Germany and then France.

I apologise for my typo mistake giving the wrong picture......

The Correct Maximum Budget Deficit permission is 3 % to EU countries and not as I posted by mistake.

 

[SL0413]

SLO413, I think that either your recollection or your Spanish skills are failing you here.

1) Politicians did NOT promise that prices would remain exactly the same. At the time Spaniards...

Sorry Andrew, my Spanish is atrocious but my recollection is pretty good.

I was is Spain in 1999 and 2000, on vacation.  They used pesetas back then.  Our company purchased a small outfit based in Barcelona, and I spent three weeks there in 2002.

The figures I stated are not correct - I confused the rate to the US Dollar of one of the other countries I visited back then, but the reference to the toll rate and price of coffee is correct. 

I had to drive to a customer's location south of Barcelona, and noted the unusual toll rates.  The two tolls I passed were automated and only accepted credit cards due to the unusual amounts.  They may have also accepted transponders - I didn't notice at the time.

When I returned to the office and worked on my expense report, I asked a local colleague about it.  He said the local politicians assured the populace that prices will remain the same when the conversion was finalized, hence, the odd factions of euro on the tolls.  It might have been for government service rates - I didn't ask for details beyond the toll rates.

The coffee information was for the cost of a cortado.  Before the conversion it was less than a euro, but businesses rounded it up to 1 euro.

[msmoby]

I think some people are getting confused about how money works. The change to the Euro was a one-off effect that occurred at a particular time - the changeover period of the currencies s period of a few weeks,

I KNOW one person is posting rubbish

The Euro conversion rates for the original members was set at on December 31st 1998 and came into force on 1st Jan 1999

The Euro nations continued to use their own currency for over THREE years - not 'weeks' ....

[andrewfi]

Wiz, most countries had price controls in place at the time of conversion to the Euro, I might even have mentioned it at some point. Every place that I saw at conversion, and there several, told the population that changeover would lead to a bump in prices. It wasn't a secret because it was known to be inevitable. The spike was only ever a one time event, that's because of how inflation is calculated. Inflation is about a general rise in prices over time. Thus a one off event can not contribute to inflation after the event has taken place.

Simply put, if a price goes up by 10% in January, then the inflationary effect happens in January, not at any other time. Of course this is reflected as a contribution to annual (or other period) figures.