Sochi air crash :(

[msmoby]

An elderly TU-154 has crashed into the Black Sea off Sochi , after refuelling there..c.5am Moscow time

It was a flight with a military band and many TV correspondents en route to Syria..


https://www.rt.com/news/371623-russian-tu-154-disappears-radars/

[msmoby]

More info:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38430164

Last msg from pilot was 'normal' - then c. 2 mins into the flight ... gone..

So, the plane was only 1.5km from land - still in Russian airspace - but v.close to 'Abkhazia'

Could it be a hostile act?  Can't believe a military plane wouldn't be well-maintained. 

[Maxx]

If it was an action by hostile forces I would think it would be by Chechens and not Georgians.

[msmoby]

Hi Maxx,

I meant any attack might come from 'Abkhazia' - not the people of that region.. and few consider themselves Georgian.

The announcement that it was likely a plane fault came too fast - how CAN they know, already ?

[Ste]

Been on quite a few Tu-154's - always made me nervous.....

[msmoby]

Been on quite a few Tu-154's - always made me nervous.....

Like Tridents and BAC 1-11's

Entering via the rear... always different

[Contrarian]

Members of famed Russian choir were on board. A horrible tragedy on Christmas day. RIP.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/25/world/europe/russian-military-plane-crash-alexandrov-ensemble.html?_r=0

[msmoby]

OK, so the (swift ) reasoning to doubt a terrorist attack is based on the fact that the plane was thoroughly checked at the point of departure and diverted to Sochi to refuel...not the original plan

It's in Russian - but can easily be translated


http://www.1tv.ru/news/2016/12/25/316838-versiya_terakta_pri_rassledovanii_krusheniya_tu_154_ne_rassmatrivaetsya_kak_osnovnaya

[Texan77]

You have a whole new group of people now hating Russia over the attacks of civilians near the Turkey border. There very well might be a link here and the Russian diplomat shot in Turkey. The fact this jet was on it way to Syria likely not a random act but someone sending a message to Putin.   

[Danchik]

First of all a really sad tragedy.

While nothing can be ruled out, I lean toward human or mechanical error as opposed to an act of terrorism. Why? First, the departure city is in Russia. Secondly, it's not the style of Georgians, and Putin pays too much money to Kadyrov to keep the Chechens in check these days.

And while there are more Russian "haters" in the world nowadays, it would seem implausible to have someone from these factions in place at an airport widely frequented by Russians for obvious reasons.

Plane accidents have been happening since the beginning of flight, and I have also experience the "thrill" of riding in a Tupelo; usually praying along the way. IOW, not the best plane tp be locked in. 

I also think the assassination of the Turkish Ambassador and this tragedy are more coincidental than connected. Again, not saying this it isn't terrorism, just that circumstances lead me to believe it was the plane or its pilot.

[Gipsy]

First of all a really sad tragedy.

While nothing can be ruled out, I lean toward human or mechanical error as opposed to an act of terrorism. Why? First, the departure city is in Russia. Secondly, it's not the style of Georgians, and Putin pays too much money to Kadyrov to keep the Chechens in check these days.

And while there are more Russian "haters" in the world nowadays, it would seem implausible to have someone from these factions in place at an airport widely frequented by Russians for obvious reasons.

Plane accidents have been happening since the beginning of flight, and I have also experience the "thrill" of riding in a Tupelo; usually praying along the way. IOW, not the best plane tp be locked in. 

I also think the assassination of the Turkish Ambassador and this tragedy are more coincidental than connected. Again, not saying this it isn't terrorism, just that circumstances lead me to believe it was the plane or its pilot.

A sad tragedy indeed....

My personal thoughts are that the plane was unable to climb due to fuel problems, and it dived into the sea before any alarm could be given..

Was on one of them 2 weeks ago, for some destinations/airfields in Russia, they are the only aircraft that can be used, newer, more modern aircraft cannot take the strains/bumps of said airfields...

[msmoby]

Flew in over the crash site, today.

I was shocked how close the recovery vessels are to the coast.

The winds have resulted in the search being 10 to 15km up the coat, towards Sochi.

The was a Hercky bird on the military side....Possibly French and various transport planes.

[Markje]

I've also flown with Aeroflot-Boeing that caused me some concern.

Whilst none of them fell from the sky, I did see smoke inside the cabin, heard rattling noises (like a worn bearing) and other things you're not supposed to hear/see in an airplane.

[Boris]

Been on quite a few Tu-154's - always made me nervous.....

Me, too. We were on the tarmac just before takeoff and I was sitting by the rear door. I could hear wind rushing through it. I told the male flight attendant that it sounded like the door wasn't shut. He said not to worry when we got to altitude the pressure would seal it.....:-)))))

[Gipsy]

I've also flown with Aeroflot-Boeing that caused me some concern.

Whilst none of them fell from the sky, I did see smoke inside the cabin, heard rattling noises (like a worn bearing) and other things you're not supposed to hear/see in an airplane.

Aeroflot has a young fleet, average age of their planes is about 5 yrs I recall...

[AvHdB]

To the passenger and crew RIP - To the loved ones left behind my condolences.

[andrewfi]

The TU-154 has an excellent safety record given the harsh operating environments in which it is used. Whilst it does not have the best record it is most unlikely that the top ranked planes in such a list could even be flown in the situations where the tu-154 is commonly used. As a comparison the TU-154 has about half the number of hull losses per million miles as the early 727 aircraft, still in service, and of roughly the same design 'generation''.

As an addendum to the above, it seems that in comparison to the 737 the TU-154 is about twice as safe per flight hour as the Boeing 737 with 737s dying about once every 500,000 hours and TU-154's about once every million hours. That's about the same as the A310 or DC9. http://www.traveLvovi.com/the-most-unsafe-airplanes-in-the-world/

I think that as with the aircraft lost over Egypt last year, the Russians may be making a policy choice to disregard the likelihood of sabotage or other attack until such time as they know for certain.That means taking the Russian lead in disregarding the possibility would be a mistake because the public line might well be at variance with the true direction of the investigations. That'd make sense because if the plane was attacked in any way the implications would be very, very serious.

[AvHdB]

If Russia has reasonable cause to believe that there was anything but pilot error or a maintenance failure, I guess the retribution will be very heavy.

Looking at the source that Andrew notes:  http://www.traveLvovi.com/the-most-unsafe-airplanes-in-the-world/

It should be noted it is rather dated and seems to be based with regards to the 737 on combining both hijackings and accidents. It should be noted that well over 1,500 737 were delivered and with the tu154 just over 1,000 were delivered. Presently there are less than 100 of 737 in service. With the tu154 there are some 50 or so planes in service. The most 'infamous' incident with a tu 154 involved the president of Poland traveling to Russia. It is widely regarded that pilot error was the reason for this accident where everyone perished.

[Ste]

If Russia has reasonable cause to believe that there was anything but pilot error or a maintenance failure, I guess the retribution will be very heavy.

Looking at the source that Andrew notes:  http://www.traveLvovi.com/the-most-unsafe-airplanes-in-the-world/

It should be noted it is rather dated and seems to be based with regards to the 737 on combining both hijackings and accidents. It should be noted that well over 1,500 737 were delivered and with the tu154 just over 1,000 were delivered. Presently there are less than 100 of 737 in service. With the tu154 there are some 50 or so planes in service. The most 'infamous' incident with a tu 154 involved the president of Poland traveling to Russia. It is widely regarded that pilot error was the reason for this accident where everyone perished.

Surely there's more 737's in service than that? Ryanair are all 737's and Norwegian have a lot. Haven't Googled though....

EDIT: Had a Google, could be fake news; we can never be sure unless we've ticked off every 737 and seen it in the air....

"The 737 is operated by more than 500 airlines, flying to 1,200 destinations in 190 countries. With over 10,000 aircraft ordered, over 7,000 delivered, and over 4,500 still in service, at any given time there are on average 1,250 airborne worldwide."

[Ste]

And having flown on both 737's and Tu-154's, 737 seems a decent kite, the Tu-154 seems like a shit plane, flown by remtards with mothers who go chippy in their slippers....

[Tom Cat]

‘The flaps, damn it!’ Last words of doomed Tu-154 flight crew leaked to media

https://www.rt.com/news/371973-last-words-black-box/

[AvHdB]

If Russia has reasonable cause to believe that there was anything but pilot error or a maintenance failure, I guess the retribution will be very heavy.

Looking at the source that Andrew notes:  http://www.traveLvovi.com/the-most-unsafe-airplanes-in-the-world/

It should be noted it is rather dated and seems to be based with regards to the 737 on combining both hijackings and accidents. It should be noted that well over 1,500 737 were delivered and with the tu154 just over 1,000 were delivered. Presently there are less than 100 of 737 in service. With the tu154 there are some 50 or so planes in service. The most 'infamous' incident with a tu 154 involved the president of Poland traveling to Russia. It is widely regarded that pilot error was the reason for this accident where everyone perished.

Surely there's more 737's in service than that? Ryanair are all 737's and Norwegian have a lot. Haven't Googled though....

EDIT: Had a Google, could be fake news; we can never be sure unless we've ticked off every 737 and seen it in the air....

"The 737 is operated by more than 500 airlines, flying to 1,200 destinations in 190 countries. With over 10,000 aircraft ordered, over 7,000 delivered, and over 4,500 still in service, at any given time there are on average 1,250 airborne worldwide."

With regards to Ste's comments he is correct with regards of deliveries and still to be built & delivered.

The quote (now in Italics) is from 2010. I know Ukraine International also almost only uses this model, excluding trans-Atlantic ~ now a 767.

[msmoby]

The  737-800 - for example - I flew on two yesterday - is one heck of a lot different from the early 737's ...Ultra quiet, modern and efficient engines, wing design am and use of more composite materials inside

 The 154's still flying have not evolved much - hence their being removed from commercial operations.

I cannot see how it could have been airborne 7 mins - more like 2 .... the search is SO close to the shore.



 

[Gipsy]

‘The flaps, damn it!’ Last words of doomed Tu-154 flight crew leaked to media

https://www.rt.com/news/371973-last-words-black-box/

Word on the news is that the flaps were miss-aligned and faulty...

No 100% confirmation yet...

[msmoby]

Word on the news is that the flaps were miss-aligned and faulty...

No 100% confirmation yet...

Ah yes, 'news' ... Life News...they told us they were on the scene in Donbass with the 'rebels' and witnessed 'another UA-26 shot down by said folks' on July 17th July, 2014.....