Russia is Pulling Out of Syria.

[Manny]

I am surprised nobody noticed this one here yet:

https://www.rt.com/news/335624-russia-planes-withdraw-syria/

On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow’s decision to withdraw the main part of Russian forces from its Syrian airbase in Latakia. This brings to an end the anti-terror operation launched on September 30, 2015. Putin explained that the operation’s objectives have been generally achieved.

The western media will no doubt enjoy making stuff up about Putin's 'cunning plan' by so doing.

The FT seems pretty balanced though: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/08b63eae-ea64-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4.html#axzz42zjKGEfn

Anyone have any thoughts?

[AKA Luke]

I am surprised nobody noticed this one here yet:

https://www.rt.com/news/335624-russia-planes-withdraw-syria/

On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow’s decision to withdraw the main part of Russian forces from its Syrian airbase in Latakia. This brings to an end the anti-terror operation launched on September 30, 2015. Putin explained that the operation’s objectives have been generally achieved.

The western media will no doubt enjoy making stuff up about Putin's 'cunning plan' by so doing.

The FT seems pretty balanced though: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/08b63eae-ea64-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4.html#axzz42zjKGEfn

Anyone have any thoughts?

Thought it had been covered in another thread regarding sanctions no?

The evil boogie man Putin. There's a guy in Canada that knows more about this.

[Markje]

I think it was posted in Sanctions yes, Ste mentioned the war was getting too expensive for Putin

[andrewfi]

That'll be one of the common early memes - until folks notice that, well, the stated objectives have been attained.

I am sure that thought leaders are anxiously awaiting instructions as to what to be telling their readers and viewers. 

[Tom Cat]

I thought this was a fairly good article as to why Russia is pulling out of Syria

Eight Reasons Why Russia Is Withdrawing From Syria

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/8-answers-why-russian-forces-are-returning-syria/ri13374

[Manny]

Thought it had been covered in another thread regarding sanctions no?

Well, I didn't look there as it is naught to do with sanctions. Not on top of all topics of late as a tad busy elsewhere.

I thought this was a fairly good article as to why Russia is pulling out of Syria

Eight Reasons Why Russia Is Withdrawing From Syria

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/8-answers-why-russian-forces-are-returning-syria/ri13374

That seems to sum up my understanding of it. They never had any intention of doing what the US does and remain there a decade or two.

In, out, shake it all about, show off Russian weapons to would be buyers, show the US they are not a pushover in case of any daft ideas they may have, break up the ISIS money chain, bump off the FSU fighters, protect Damascus till it can protect itself, help the legitimate government regain control, get everyone sat down talking. Quit while you are ahead. Job done on all levels. For now.

Minimum expense, minimum casualties, maximum PR.

And now lookee what? John Kerry in Moscow next week for a chat. 

[AKA Luke]

Thought it had been covered in another thread regarding sanctions no?

Well, I didn't look there as it is naught to do with sanctions. Not on top of all topics of late as a tad busy elsewhere.

I thought this was a fairly good article as to why Russia is pulling out of Syria

Eight Reasons Why Russia Is Withdrawing From Syria

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/8-answers-why-russian-forces-are-returning-syria/ri13374

That seems to sum up my understanding of it. They never had any intention of doing what the US does and remain there a decade or two.

In, out, shake it all about, show off Russian weapons to would be buyers, show the US they are not a pushover in case of any daft ideas they may have, break up the ISIS money chain, bump off the FSU fighters, protect Damascus till it can protect itself, help the legitimate government regain control, get everyone sat down talking. Quit while you are ahead. Job done on all levels. For now.

Minimum expense, minimum casualties, maximum PR.

And now lookee what? John Kerry in Moscow next week for a chat. 

I see a link.

[Manny]

I see a link.

I see a link between the US being the hand that directs the EU, migrants piling into the EU from war zones with Turkey's help. Now the EU is throwing money at Turkey and Jordan to keep some there, and Assad is still there, and Putin is the hand that rocks the cradle.

Pull back, invite Kerry for a 'chat', paint a picture of 3m more migrants if Russia needs to go back, and see how long those sanctions last........

Cue the US stopping the "Assad must go" mantra, and our compliant media writing good stuff about Russia. Like say how good ol' cowboys from Wyoming are flocking to opportunity-rich Russia to herd cows as Russian demand for steak soars (don't tell Westy people are moving there from the US). With lots of quotes by good ol' American guys about how great Russia is and how the US media lies?

Well guess what already?

[WestCoast]

Like say how good ol' cowboys from Wyoming are flocking to opportunity-rich Russia to herd cows as Russian demand for steak soars (don't tell Westy people are moving there from the US). With lots of quotes by good ol' American guys about how great Russia is and how the US media lies?

Well guess what already?

(Attachment Link)

Behind a paywall, even I can't breach. While Todd Lewis and his fellow cowboys were moving to Russia how many Russians moved to the west to escape Putin? Hundred Russians for every Todd Lewis? 200?

Better yet how many Russian millionaires and billionaires moved most of their assets to the west? Even Putin's daughters preferred the west.

[Texan77]

Thought it had been covered in another thread regarding sanctions no?

Well, I didn't look there as it is naught to do with sanctions. Not on top of all topics of late as a tad busy elsewhere.

I thought this was a fairly good article as to why Russia is pulling out of Syria

Eight Reasons Why Russia Is Withdrawing From Syria

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/8-answers-why-russian-forces-are-returning-syria/ri13374

That seems to sum up my understanding of it. They never had any intention of doing what the US does and remain there a decade or two.

In, out, shake it all about, show off Russian weapons to would be buyers, show the US they are not a pushover in case of any daft ideas they may have, break up the ISIS money chain, bump off the FSU fighters, protect Damascus till it can protect itself, help the legitimate government regain control, get everyone sat down talking. Quit while you are ahead. Job done on all levels. For now.

Minimum expense, minimum casualties, maximum PR.

And now lookee what? John Kerry in Moscow next week for a chat. 

My reading the article Russia is not pulling out of Syria they just sent a few plans home. The could return in hours. Everything on the ground remains ready to support them.

[Manny]

Behind a paywall, even I can't breach.

Translation: I couldn't Google the headline and find a free scrape. 

Click it, blow it up, flip it and save it to read it.

Cluebat: Mark Franchetti is even more anti-Russian than you (but he has been), but that was penned in his name. See what is happening here? Take your time.....

Why I photographed it for you. You deal in facts, remember? 

[AKA Luke]

Behind a paywall, even I can't breach.

Translation: I couldn't Google the headline and find a free scrape. 

Click it, blow it up, flip it and save it to read it.

Cluebat: Mark Franchetti is even more anti-Russian than you (but he has been), but that was penned in his name. See what is happening here? Take your time.....

Why I photographed it for you. You deal in facts, remember? 

Facts like Chinatown in London and Paris exist for Chinese buyers to go shopping in, and are not full of tax dodging massage parlours and cash only buffets aimed at domestic tourists.

Sure.

[andrewfi]

Facts like Chinatown in London and Paris exist for Chinese buyers to go shopping in, and are not full of tax dodging massage parlours and cash only buffets aimed at domestic tourists.

Say it ain't so! I thought they didn't exist until the Chinese started being big tourists a few years ago! 

I was believing Westcoast, after all, he has personal insight here, given that one of his caregivers is Chinese!   

[WestCoast]

Behind a paywall, even I can't breach.

Translation: I couldn't Google the headline and find a free scrape. 

Click it, blow it up, flip it and save it to read it.

Since you referenced that particular article I wanted to read it. Of course there are similar articles but that particular article was not available to me.

Cluebat: Mark Franchetti is even more anti-Russian than you (but he has been),

I'm not anti-Russian just anti corrupt government. Unlike you who are virulently pro Russian even with all its corruption.

Why I photographed it for you. You deal in facts, remember? 

You could have photographed the entire article so I could see if the article dealt in facts.

[WestCoast]

Interesting article in the NY Post that speculates 2 reasons for Putin withdrawing from Syria. One, Assad isn't grateful for Putin's help and Putin is feed up with Assad's attitude towards Putin's military assistance. Putin is simply feed up with Assad so he's taking his air force back to Russia.

Second reason. Putin has realised that Iran is simply using the Russian Air Force to consolidate gains on the ground for expansion of Iranian territory in Iraq and Syria. After all it's Iranian military and those loyal to Iran doing all the boots on the ground work while the Russian Air Force soars overhead out of sight.

The last thing Putin wants is an expanded Iranian presence in the Middle East. After all the missiles of Shia Muslim Iran military can reach parts of Russia as easily as other parts of the ME.

If some or all of the NYP article are reasons for Putin leaving will he return if Assad can't keep the territory Putin returned to him or if Assad needs help to keep Syria from Iran's control?

http://nypost.com/2016/03/15/the-syrian-war-just-taught-putin-to-worry-about-iran/

[msmoby]

From the 'biased' BBC ..

I can't find fault with Rosenburg's conclusions..

I invite the likes of Manny to point out any ..

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35824486

[Manny]

From the 'biased' BBC ..

I can't find fault with Rosenburg's conclusions..

I invite the likes of Manny to point out any ..

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35824486

The media was took by surprise is why that is fairly even. With no new narrative yet circulated from Washington, they will have to rely on the facts till they get the memo.

[msmoby]

Sadly predictable response....  no bias detected...

.

[Gipsy]

From the 'biased' BBC ..

I can't find fault with Rosenburg's conclusions..

I invite the likes of Manny to point out any ..

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35824486

The media was took by surprise is why that is fairly even. With no new narrative yet circulated from Washington, they will have to rely on the facts till they get the memo.

The same as another forum member.... 

[Tom Cat]

Putin: Russia may deploy forces back to Syria ‘in mere hours’ if necessary

https://www.rt.com/news/335949-putin-russia-op-syria/

[leslied]

All of the analysis which I have read on Putin's withdrawal from Syria is limited, biased propaganda either from the Russian or Western perspective.  Not a single commentator has produced a cogent analysis of Uncle Vanya's move onto the front foot...

Putin is a strategist.  This withdrawal should be considered as a single move in a very complex chess game.  There are several nuances that the media has missed -

The failure of the UN peace talks (and they will certainly fail) will be down to the West and it's sock puppets demanding changes that they could not achieve by force on the ground.  The opposition represented at these talks has already lost. Their supply lines are severed and they are effectively surrounded. They represent insignificant military forces which Assad can "clear out" in a month. Putin decided NOT to do this.  Far more advantageous for this situation to emerge during the UN peace talks...

The next stage of the Civil War involves The Assad Regime, Daesh (+ the other Islamists) and the Kurds.

Putin, very wisely in my opinion, does not wish to become embroiled in a Turkey versus Kurds war.  He will stand back and let the USA support the Kurdish Militias and gloat as these actions tear the Western alliance apart...

Why will the USA support the Kurdish Militias?  Well it has already supplied them with $100s million in weapons and other aid.  Russia also supports the Kurds albeit indirectly. Put simply it is the only alternative. 

If Daesh is to be defeated there are only two viable options;  Kurdish forces or Iranian backed forces.  The alternative of Western Alliance "Boots on the Ground" is not currently feasible.

This leaves Erdogan fighting an internal civil war with the Kurds in south eastern Turkey and the prospect of a unilaterally declared Kurdish state.

We live in interesting times...

[Ste]

[PEDANT]

Vanya is the diminutive for Ivan I think, Vladimir is Vova (amongst others).

Sorry!

[/PEDANT]

[leslied]

Point Taken Ste 

Would you also refer to Putin as Vovochka 

[Ste]

Point Taken Ste 

Would you also refer to Putin as Vovochka 

Yeah - and a great song by Pep-Si!! I mean great as in 'crap'.....

[andrewfi]

Les, not much analysis is needed here.

You are right that many commentators writing in English have not written accurately or perceptively though.

Why is not much analysis needed?
Because what is happened is no more, or less, than the Russian government and state told us was going to happen when they moved into Syria 5 months ago.

The question of timing is not hard to fathom, it is, of course, connected to the negotiations in Geneva. Given that the withdrawal is far from being a total withdrawal, but reflects the changes on the ground (fewer targets, much work already done) this is not more than a removal of unneeded assets. The big point is that of 'optics' as the USAians like to term it: the appearance to the world, as well as actors more closely involved. Simply put, it looks good for Russia to have announced a withdrawal of a large part of the forces prior to a 'peacebuilding' phase that has resulted from Russia's military actions. There's not much more to it than that.

Now, once again, Russia is seen as being the actor who says what it will do, does it, and then tells us what they just did. The toughie for most western commentators is that this is not common for western governments and states. There's no need to go looking for sub-texts or concealed readings because Russia said what they were going to do, did it, and are now telling us what they did. My guess is that this point was one that was of concern, on a personal level, to the Russian president.

Are there other currents running as well?
Of course there are, but they are not particularly significant,and not of great concern to Russia at this time.
The legitimate government of Syria is preserved.
There will be no 'regime change' absent the agreement of the current government and state (including the Syrian opposition).
Russia has, by all accounts, dealt with the threat to the RF from Daesh members from within the RF.
As a result there will be no pipeline from Qatar to Europe.

Everything else - extirpation of Daesh, some kind of 'statehood' for Kurds is for later, although it is worth noting that there is no way that there will be an independent Kurdistan - the territory that they occupy is not economically viable and there's no way that sensible Kurds are going to want to move there from nice parts of Turkey or Syria to live an impoverished life with only sandstorms and mountains to enjoy. Some form of devolved Kurdistan within Syria, well, that's a possibility - just as Russia want to see within Ukraine for the LPR/DPR