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Author Topic: I hope it works for Syria  (Read 380 times)

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Online andrewfi

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I hope it works for Syria
« on: February 23, 2016, 01:04:54 AM »
This proposal and agreement is a chance to move forward. I  hope it works. It is clear that Team Bear is placing a lot of faith in legal process. If the US plays ball then there is a chance to make positive moves in the whole region.
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHptNGuSb20" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHptNGuSb20</a>

The terms of the cessation of hostilities.
CLICK HERE!

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus

Online leslied

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Re: I hope it works for Syria
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2016, 06:11:10 AM »
A ceasefire makes sense now.  Humanitarian aid needs to get in and many civilians (+ some rebel fighters) need to get out.  Mood in Turkey is that the PYD (Syrian Kurds) are in the same group as Daesh and Al-Nusra.  Cannot see a ceasefire happening between Turkey and the PYD.

Of course the Western press is shouting that the Syrian Army (+ Russian air strikes) are going to break the ceasefire.  Even before it starts...




Online andrewfi

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Re: I hope it works for Syria
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2016, 07:04:29 AM »
Well, the Syrians and allies have said, and it is part of the terms of the agreement, that those forces defined by the UN Security Council as 'terrorists' will continue to be attacked as will any groups that do not agree to lay down their arms.

What I expect to happen is that 'The West' will claim that groups that are a part of the UN list are not (expect lots of new names of 'new to the world' groups to appear) actually terrorists/jihadists.

But, in part, that's why the Russians have said that an integral part of the process is geographically identifying all groups that are part of the ceasefire process so that, no matter what the name, it is the location that identifies the organisation.

However, I do think that the US president, if not all of the significant power structures in the US, is on board with this program and that should carry weight. If Obama can not insist on the actors who are, nominally at least, under his command, then he will be showing the world that he has all the power of Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine.

This agreement is a multi-layered thing. It forces the US to identify as friend or foe the various groups it supports, claims not to support or supports covertly. The agreement forces the US to agree to a process that does not necessitate the removal of the President of Syria, at the same time Russia is now recognised as being a powerbroker - not a 'gas station' and it forces the US to see that a violent solution to the chaos they inspired is not the answer.

Of course there are addenda to the document that we will probably never see but this looked to me to be a well crafted agreement from the same kind of mind(s) that drafted the Minsk 2 agreement.

EDIT: With regard to future claims that Russia/Syria are breaking the terms of the agreement here's a piece from Reuters that shows how the scene is already being set for such claims.
Notice the following:
1) The deal is written as a US-Russian plan, clearly showing the initiator as being the US.
2) The piece does not refer to the US Security Council list only to a smaller subset of that list.
3) The piece does not refer to the sections referring to what happens to organisations that choose to not take part in the ceasefire plan. In the agreement it is clear that those orgs that do not identify themselves as being part of the process will continue to be dealt with militarily.

By the foregoing it now becomes possible, within the narrative being set, to blame Russia and Syria for any action ongoing against orgs that are not listed in the Reuters piece bit are in the UN Security Council list, any orgs that do not declare themselves part of the ceasefire process and that the Russians will be breaking a US brokered initiative.

Reuters article: CLICK HERE!

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus


Online leslied

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Re: I hope it works for Syria
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2016, 01:32:43 AM »
Turkey does not back this truce -

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/keep-pyd-out-of-syria-truce-deal-erdogan.aspx?pageID=238&nID=95635&NewsCatID=352

There was an article yesterday which quoted Erdogan not supporting the ceasefire.  All traces have been deleted.  Turkey is being forced to toe the the UN policy line...

Online andrewfi

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Re: I hope it works for Syria
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2016, 02:08:40 AM »
Les, my take is that there are competing factions in the US power structure.

The US president is in favour of this initiative and is putting his forces behind it. Thus pressure gets applied to Turkey. Erdogan has already initiated a policy split with the US as shown in the piece to which you linked.

I know that you have said that you do not expect the military to act against Erdogan but I think that 'something' will happen because Erdogan is disrespecting his superior officer - the US president.

Of course in Erdogan's worldview he must characterise the Kurds, of any flavour, as equivalent to D'aesh but that's not acceptable to the real powers here - Russia and the US who are both supporting Kurdish activities against Turkey's preferred terrorist group.

I think that the degree to which president Obama is able to control the competing forces, nominally, under his control will influence the success of this initiative. I have little doubt in the Russian leadership's control over their power structure.

We should remember that that this initiative is a multi-dimensional construct. The purpose is not merely to get some kind of truce going. At the least it serves the following additional purposes:
1) enhances Russian status in the panoply of power states
2) forces opposition groups of all flavors to decide on where they really want to align themselves - with the liver eating jihadists set on breaking Syria or on a Syrian state and nation in which they form some kind of opposition and possible leadership.
3) isolates Al Qaida and D'aesh from all other groups both politically and geographically
4) forces the US to share intelligence data with Russia - which they have previously refused to do
5) forces the US to disavow their connections, albeit covert, with Al Qaida and D'aesh (assuming that Obama can control the power vertical to the necessary degree!)
6) acknowledges the ability of Russia to control the air and ground space within most, if not all, of Syria

There's certainly other levels but I for sure don't know them all and this is just a forum post. ;)

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus