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Author Topic: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?  (Read 3952 times)

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Online Tom Cat

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Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« on: January 11, 2016, 09:32:51 PM »
I've read another article were 3 out of 4 Dutch do not want Ukraine getting any EU, privileges.
Maybe Makje can give more details?



Orange Resolution: Will the Dutch Close the Door on Kiev's European Dreams?


http://m.sputniknews.com/politics/20160111/1032932512/netherlands-referendum-ukraine-analysis.html
Don't shoot the messenger, links to articles posted, don't necessarily reflect my personal opinion.

Online Markje

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2016, 07:59:36 AM »
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Kiev has had a very unpleasant start to the New Year. With economic problems mounting, and the threat of renewed conflict in the Donbass looming, now, adding to their troubles, the Dutch plan on holding a referendum to see whether they can't reverse Amsterdam's ratification of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
Not entirely true... The population of the netherlands *forced* the government to hold a Referendum (6th of april) which is non-binding by amassing the necessary 300.000 votes (they got 450.000 for this referendum).
That process in itself was quite anti-democratic, as it forced people to use real paper-post to mail a letter with signature to an organization in Netherlands. Old-skool non-electronic non-internet consent-forms.

Unfortunately, the Referendum is not binding, meaning the government can ignore it. However doing so is a political suicide.

Geenstijl.nl a popular right-wing dutch blog, has lobbied with the current politicians in the opposition and a few government parties to get a majority vote in the 2nd chamber. Meaning that if they hold to their word, the referendum's outcome will be respected.

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The Dutch, it seems, aren't so thrilled about all the promises made in Brussels on their behalf regarding Association, and the much talked-about visa-free travel regime for Ukrainians.
Not only those, but also the military aid, and other provisions in the "trade agreement" (those who have read it, as i have, know why I use the quotation marks, only 20 pages of the full 186 are about trade, the rest are about military aid, visa's and other provisions).

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According to a recent survey by Een Vandaag, a popular current affairs program on the Dutch public television channel NPO 1, a majority of the country's citizens are opposed to the ratification of the agreement.
Entirely correct. If the number of turnup is above the required 30% for a legal outcome, it is expected Dutch will vote against Ukraine's treaty.

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Planning to hold an advisory referendum on the agreement in early April, the Dutch are throwing a wrench into Brussels' plans, leading European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to warn that a 'no' vote on association might cause an EU-wide 'continental crisis'.
Major Dutch newspapers translate this as 'oooooh panic, panic, democracy is waking up where we didn't expect it to!!!!'

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The referendum, it's worth recalling, was the initiative of Dutch Euroskeptics, who managed to collect over 400,000 signatures last September, taking advantage of a new democratic tool which allows citizens to call for a plebiscite on recently-adopted laws or treaties.
Correct, but not only the Dutch Euroskeptiks, but also a large blog named geenstijl.nl whom launched the dutch website 'geenpeil.nl' to promote the anti-vote of the treaty and why you should vote in any case, against or for.

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Een Vandaag's survey, which polled over 27,000 residents, showed that the majority of Dutch citizens are likely to vote to reject the treaty, with 53% of those asked saying they would "definitely" do so, and 17% noting they were "likely" to do so." If the referendum receives over 30% turnout, its status must be considered official.
I thought the turnout is 38% to be considered legally official. (I will look this up later)
[edit] Nope it has to be 30% , correct.

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In theory, the referendum is only advisory in character, and the government might still ignore it. However, in practice, experts suggest, doing so would mean a serious blow to the government's approval ratings.
Correct, see above.

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In November, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that the referendum would not stop Ukraine's European integration, but turned around and added that the government would still take account of the results. Since then, the government has decided to launch a campaign in support of the Association Agreement, which came into force on January 1. According to some critics, the government will now be doing everything it can to discourage sufficient voter turnout.
Mark Rutte still hasn't started campaigning in a pro-vote message. Other than that: wholly true, they even cut the usual budget of such referendums for sufficient voting booths from $40.000.000 to $20.000.000 meaning lots of cities chose to slash the number of voting booths to a bare minimum to cut costs.

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Speaking to Dutch evening newspaper NRC Handelsblad, Joop van Holsteijn, a professor in electoral research at Leiden University, pointed out that a record low sum –only 20 million euros, has been allocated to municipalities to carry out the referendum (in contrast to the last parliamentary elections, where municipalities received over 42 million). "I see this as childlike pettiness. The law on the referendum is there, and people have the right to use it," Holsteijn complained.
Ah, they noticed that too.

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Commenting on the roots of the Dutch people's negative attitudes toward post-Maidan Ukraine, independent Russian newspaper Svobodnaya Pressa suggested that the story, running late last year, on the discovery of stolen paintings from a Dutch museum in the hands of pro-Kiev 'nationalists' in east Ukraine plays an important role.
Not true. Most Dutch only know Ukraine from the soccer-tournament and therefore vote 'no'.

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"Late last year," the paper notes, "NPO 1 reported that a collection of 24 works, and a large amount of silver stolen 11 years ago from a museum in Western Friesland had wound up in the Donbass, in the hands of a pro-Kiev 'nationalist group'. The men refused the museum's offer of 50,000 euros to get the pieces back, demanding at least 5 million euros. Moreover, according to the report, Oleh Tyahnybok, a Ukrainian politician and former Rada MP from the Svoboda Party, and former Ukrainian Security Service Head Valentyn Nalyvaichenko [two formerly key figures in post-Maidan Kiev] were tied to the crime."
All true. Except for the location, it was all near l'viv and not donbass. Guess the keywords had to be used again in accordance with AndrewFI's theories.

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Speaking to the newspaper, Alexei Kuznetsov, the head of the Center for European Studies at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations, emphasized that he is convinced that in any case, "every effort will be made to persuade people not to vote against [association]. The EU has seen many cases of the manipulation of public opinion before, and Brussels is quite capable when it comes to conducting information warfare against its own population."
They are already doing so. Cutting the budget, trying to bury all anti-ukrainian news in the gov't news agencies, they even go so far as to call a no-vote a racist vote. (gee, i didn't know that Ukrainians were a race).

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As for Juncker's prediction that the referendum might cause a 'continental crisis' if the Dutch vote the wrong way, Kuznetsov noted that "many intelligent people in the West, including in the EU, already understand that supporting the coup d'état in Ukraine was a big mistake. It led to the partial collapse of an EU neighbor which had been relatively stable up to that point…Still, given that Ukraine is not a member of the EU, whatever the outcome of the referendum will be, it will not cause a crisis in the EU itself."
I'd agree with the parts I can verify. I hope the rest is true too, it would be a small plus in my book.

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Juncker's words, the analyst suggested, are an example of the kind of information warfare he's talking about. "This is an attempt to intimidate the Dutch and to impose on them the 'right' kind of behavior –from the EU leadership's point of view. There is nothing to back up these words…"
Absolutely true. Who says propaganda is dead in the EU.

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For his part, Boris Shmelev, Deputy Director of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, is more pessimistic, suggesting that too much is at stake for the EU establishment, and that nothing will be able to stop the agreement from going ahead.
Most Dutch understand this to be true too, which is why everyone is excited about voting to show Europe that if they go ahead, it is without mandate from the ordinary people and shown for an anti-democratic farce. Never was it so obvious the leaders are non-democratic in the EU if they choose to ignore this (no) outcome.

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"The West in general and the leaders of major European countries in particular have invested a great deal of effort and political capital in the formation of the Association Agreement. For them, any setbacks – a refusal to sign or even a delay, would be highly undesirable. It would mean a powerful political defeat for the EU leadership, and for the entire policy of the EU in Ukraine and the entire former Soviet space."
Absolutely true, parts of the agreement already became effective 1-jan-2016, before the Dutch Gov't can say yes as they have to wait for the referendums outcome (even if they ignore it). Its especially painful as Dutchies head the EU these coming 6 months!!!

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"Every effort will [therefore] be made," according to Shmelev, "to change the mood of the Dutch people with respect to the agreement."
Very true, which is why Mark Rutte our president chooses not to campaign for a 'yes' vote. It will be counterproductive and only strengthen the resolve of the people to vote "no".

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Ultimately, Svobodnaya Pressa suggests that with the referendum now less than three months away, the big question is: "will the Dutch and European authorities be able to convince the Dutch people that the Association Agreement with Ukraine is a good thing? And if not, will they at least take account of the results of the referendum, or will the geopolitical agenda find itself to be more important than the vaunted values of European democracy?"
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My estimation: No they cannot change our no-vote and no they will not respect the no-vote.

Mark.
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Online msmoby

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2016, 08:21:13 AM »
No... the EU has had the Irish vote no to a vital piece of legislation .. they just waited until the Irish woke up to their folly and persuaded them to vote yes, next time  :chuckle:


Online andrewfi

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2016, 08:35:28 AM »
It may require several referenda in order to get the 'correct' result. I am sure that Brussels and other external actors will employ a mixture of patience and provocation to sway matters into the right direction.

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2016, 11:40:28 AM »
Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.

'Fake video was created outside of Ukraine - possibly in Russia' - Avakyan

http://uatoday.tv/society/tigran-avakyan-deputy-internal-affairs-minister-for-european-integration-574966.html
Don't shoot the messenger, links to articles posted, don't necessarily reflect my personal opinion.

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2016, 07:42:24 PM »
Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.

Wow, has the 'messenger' just let his mask slip ...  ? 

Naturally, that the Kremlin have used their military to take over and held a 'referendum' in Crimea and encouraged - and were physically involved in Donbas is no excuse .... :chuckle:

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2016, 02:24:41 AM »
Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.

Wow, has the 'messenger' just let his mask slip ...  ? 

Naturally, that the Kremlin have used their military to take over and held a 'referendum' in Crimea and encouraged - and were physically involved in Donbas is no excuse .... :chuckle:
There was no military takeover of crimea.

http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg428877.html#msg428877
http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg428958.html#msg428958
http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg429154.html#msg429154

Take a good hard look at those military oppressed people, forced to vote for something they didn't want:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2582006/Jubilation-Crimea-95-cent-vote-join-Russia-Ukrainian-prime-minister-warns-separatist-leaders-ground-burn-feet.html
To cut down on propaganda, lets list only the captions below of the first few pictures of this newsitem:
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* Crowds of ethnic Russians have been celebrating in Crimea after the region voted in favour of splitting from Ukraine and rejoining Russia
* Fireworks explode in the sky over Lenin Square after the end of a referendum in Simferopol, Crimea, Ukraine
* Western leaders refuse to recognise Sunday's referendum in Crimea, in which 96 per cent backed a merger with Russia
(which has nothing to do with the picture shown)
Quote
* Despite threats from the Ukranian president to hunt down the politicians responsible for pushing the vote through, there were celebrations in Simferopol
* Crimean voters have overwhelmingly backed joining Russia sparking scenes of celebration in Lenin Square in the regional capital of Simferopol
* The Crimean regional speaker has called the vote an important Russian and global event
* In a phone call to Barack Obama, President Putin said the vote conformed to international law, despite Washington's insistence that it was conducted illegally
* Despite the celebrations, tensions remain high in the east of Ukraine after days of violent clashes
This last two also have nothing to do with picture shown, I guess propaganda bullshit must be inserted, even in images of people celebrating.
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*William Hauge has denounced the vote as a 'mockery of democracy' and said Russia will have to accept 'economic and political consequences' after stirring tensions in the region
Over the image of people kissing and celebrating.

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* Jubilant scenes in the regional capital of Simferopol broke out following the early results, as a regional politician said Crimea could apply to join Russia tomorrow
* The speaker of the Crimean parliament has said he expects Russia's response to the vote to be 'fast'
* Around 300 miles from Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin watched the closing of the Sochi Paralympic Games
Ironically, this is the first image not of celebrating people, but really a pic of Putin himself.

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* The referendum has been denounced by Wester leaders and Ukraine's own government as illegal and illegitimate
Again propaganda over a pic about people celebrating.
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* Crimean prime minister Sergei Askyonov has joined in the celebrations despite threats from the country's prime minister to hunt down those who pushed for the referendum
* The Crimeans have been celebrating in Lenin Square, beside a statue of the former Soviet leader, showing the close historical ties between the peninsula and Russia
Whatever else happened in Ukraine, not a single Lenin statue was damaged in all of Crimea.
I will stop quoting the pictures now, you can read the rest yourself.



Incidentally, if you search for "crimea referendum party" on google, all you get is pro-western propaganda. I had to use yandex to find this article in the western press.

If you know anything about preparing , planning , logistics etc. You can clearly see that this party has been planned thoroughly beforehand, meaning that everyone knew what was going to happen before the ballots were cast.

Some people call this proof that it is a big sham. Others (those who visit there regularly) say that this had been a long time coming and only formalizing what the people wanted since 1991.

Mark.
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My first trip to my wife: To Evpatoria!
My road trip to Crimea: Roadtrip to Evpatoria

Offline Gipsy

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2016, 03:08:10 AM »
Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.

Wow, has the 'messenger' just let his mask slip ...  ? 

Naturally, that the Kremlin have used their military to take over and held a 'referendum' in Crimea and encouraged - and were physically involved in Donbas is no excuse .... :chuckle:
There was no military takeover of crimea.

http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg428877.html#msg428877
http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg428958.html#msg428958
http://ruadventures.com/forum/index.php/topic,22510.msg429154.html#msg429154

Take a good hard look at those military oppressed people, forced to vote for something they didn't want:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2582006/Jubilation-Crimea-95-cent-vote-join-Russia-Ukrainian-prime-minister-warns-separatist-leaders-ground-burn-feet.html

I dunno man, you keep harping on about something that never happened. Its trying to convince the world black is white.

Incidentally, if you search for "crimea referendum party" on google, all you get is pro-western propaganda. I had to use yandex to find this article in the western press.

If you know anything about preparing , planning , logistics etc. You can clearly see that this party has been planned thoroughly beforehand, meaning that everyone knew what was going to happen before the ballots were cast.

Some people call this proof that it is a big sham. Others (those who visit there regularly) say that this had been a long time coming and only formalizing what the people wanted since 1991.

Mark.

 :thumbsup:

Its a complete and utter waste of time trying to convince the (descendant)"Irish numbskull".
He has his own "knowledgeable" and "experienced" views of the subject.

 :dh:
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Offline Gipsy

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2016, 03:10:52 AM »
Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.

Wow, has the 'messenger' just let his mask slip ...  ? 

Naturally, that the Kremlin have used their military to take over and held a 'referendum' in Crimea and encouraged - and were physically involved in Donbas is no excuse .... :chuckle:

So in comparison, you are saying that the British should have stayed out of the Northern Ireland conflict, or the Falkland Island conflict?.
Bridge is a lot like sex, either you need a good partner, or a decent hand... Woody Allen

Offline Gipsy

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2016, 03:14:36 AM »
It may require several referenda in order to get the 'correct' result. I am sure that Brussels and other external actors will employ a mixture of patience and provocation to sway matters into the right direction.

It will be exactly the same as the Irish referendum, a new modified/manipulated proposal, which was in fact the exact same as the original, just to baffle the "Kartoffeln kopfe", and get the EU desired end result.

Bridge is a lot like sex, either you need a good partner, or a decent hand... Woody Allen

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2016, 04:37:45 AM »
Yes, the Irish model was in my head as I wrote.

This has the potential to be a very serious issue because it will make public and obvious the reality of the EU Association Agreement as it applies to Ukraine. In Ukraine some people are already coming to realise that the agreement was very much a one way street. If only more people had actually read the document before falling for the lies they wanted to hear.

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2016, 09:06:43 PM »

There was no military takeover of crimea.

More delusion / deflection.. There was a military takeover - by the 25k Russian military personnel stationed there

1/ they fired on OSCE military observers and UA military personal - fired overhead - that is use of force. It suggests what will happen if you do not obey / comply


2/They surrounded UA bases - stripped the personnel of weapons giving the option of joining or leaving the peninsula - military force

3/ They surrounded the  Crimean parliament building - then conducted a room to room search - rounding up UA personnel and expelling the Prime Minster - use of force.

I could go on and on .. but I am certain you really get the point - the circumstances to hold a referendum needed use of force - threatened or otherwise - to create the circumstances to hold a 'referendum'

That the maj. of people living on the peninsula were pleased about these events is not contested


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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2016, 09:18:44 PM »

Must be a Ukrainian thing whenever there's a problem, just blame Russia.


Wow, has the 'messenger' just let his mask slip ...  ? 

Naturally, that the Kremlin have used their military to take over and held a 'referendum' in Crimea and encouraged - and were physically involved in Donbas is no excuse .... :chuckle:

So in comparison, you are saying that the British should have stayed out of the Northern Ireland conflict, or the Falkland Island conflict?.

You have by your own admission been lurking' - so were you inattentive when I pointed out that  Crimea and N.Ireland were similar - in that both had planted people inserted to 'redress' the ethnicity balance.. Plus there was ethnic cleansing of the indigenous population.

Regarding the use of British troops in N.Ireland... If you know your history they were sent  as Stormont couldn't cope - the Nationalist population were oppressed re jobs and how constituency boundaries were drawn to ensure a Brit majority - even in Stroke city.. Derry / Londonderry.

The Police force - esp. the B Specials were hardly 'fair'..

SO... The Troops came to police and to be fair... they were - initially - welcomed in Nationalist areas with cups of tea -as they were perceived as being a far better option than the Police.

That this relationship broke down was a combination of extreme Nationalist terrorist acts and Westminster's ill - advised use of Interment without trial... which is why I know alienating sections of a population is STUPID and counter -productive..

 

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2016, 12:26:12 AM »
That the maj. of people living on the peninsula were pleased about these events is not contested

So you think that the views of the majority should have been ignored?
I apologise.
And so he should.........

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Re: Will the Dutch crush Kiev's EU, dreams?
« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2016, 02:40:23 AM »
Hey Moby, how is the holiday going? How come you are power posting your usual tripe?
Doesn't your target want to spend time with you?
Is she busy with other stuff and forgot to give you any pocket money?

You're posting as though you're stuck in the library in dreary Manchester again.

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