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Author Topic: De-Dollarisation.  (Read 23380 times)

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Online shakespear

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2015, 02:45:35 PM »

Oh, and Mark is right. Bilateral trading agreements exclude the dollar and are becoming easier to implement as technology increases the speed and transparency of transactions. However they are probably a stepping-stone toward the goal of a non-hegemonic currency without transaction costs benefiting none of the trading parties.

We've already got that -

Called a "bitcoin"
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Offline Ste

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2015, 02:54:32 PM »
Sorry fellas, interesting takes but I work in World Banking and Payments and have done for a while and the Dollar is still King and will be for the foreseeable.

I'd like to see another currency in the mix, the Euro is second best but the Rouble and Yuan, don't make me laugh, honestly it's risible, Zimbabwean Dollar has more chance or perhaps the Matabeleland Gumbo Bean....





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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2015, 03:14:38 PM »
Zimbabwean Dollar has more chance

Isn't that the currency that uses a $10,000,000 note for daily grocery shopping?
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Offline Ste

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2015, 03:15:33 PM »
Zimbabwean Dollar has more chance

Isn't that the currency that uses a $10,000,000 note for daily grocery shopping?

No, you mean the Rouble.......

Hehe..
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Offline Manny

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2015, 03:37:34 PM »
Why does it need to be replaced. What if people simply want to trade in their own currency.

Gas/Oil from Russia -> Rouble
Gas/Oil from China -> Yuan,
etc.

^^ This.

We did this in Europe already before the Euro. It worked alright. Yes, it was a *little* more inconvenient to buy Guilders for Holland, two different types of Francs for France and Belgium, Kroons in Estonia and Deutschmarks in Germany, but we all got along and made money. Never was the dollar useful in Europe (except in the mid to late 90's in eastern Europe and the Baltics - but they would take Zloty, roubles or anything that could be spent someplace then).

What Americans probably don't get about Europe, or the EU bit, is that the dollar isn't something of value here. Its just another foreign currency among hundreds. Like a Russian rouble or a Polish Zloty, one must go into a bank to exchange it for something that can be used locally.

Was anyone in London or Manchester in the 80's or 90's when American tourists would stand at store tills, looking amazed that nobody wanted their dollars, or took Diners Club? Seriously, they used to stand in stores in major British cities and want to pay in dollars. They were about as useful here as South African Rand or Lithuanian Lita.

Nothing changed........

I went to China last year, I read some crap online and took some dollars (as I had some). People just laughed and pointed me toward a bank. I still have them...... the same ones my wife refused to take to Russia. She reminded me on the phone today that the dollars *came* from Russia in the first place, as her Dad got them in a deal and didn't want to get stitched up in a bank, so he gave them to her as we used to visit the US then, so he thought they may be more use to us.
I apologise.
And so he should.........

Online Texan77

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2015, 05:16:28 PM »
It isn't "anti-American" to point out the damage the US and the dollar have done to the world. Or why your economy needs continual war to stay afloat. Or to discuss why the world must de-dollarise.

I'm sure Andrew can explain this better than me Cuffy, but my understanding is that China choosing to devalue their currency also brings down the dollar.

Also, as they don't borrow externally, and have so much less exposure as their own currency isn't yet as widely used abroad (which is rapidly changing), it doesn't really hurt them. It simply makes their exports more competitive.

A reduced oil price means the shale operations in the US go bankrupt. Which will hit the economy there, along with all those previously exported dollars coming home to roost.

Remember, China and Russia are de-dollarising. Add to that Iran. India, South Africa, Kazakhstan and today Kyrgyzstan. Heck, even Nigeria is de-dollarising.

I'd vote Trump if I were you. Let a businessman run the country so you can once again make stuff and export it instead of just printing money, selling each other services and starting wars. If you did that, you wouldn't need to try to rule the world with the dollar and your continual wars. Try exporting something other than death and dollars.

Trump want to sanction China not let many if any Chinese import into America. When he is president I think you will really love him.

He want to pull out of Europe and let you blots pay for you own defense. I know if sound great now but wait until you see what it will do to European economy.   

If the Yuan goes down the dollar goes up the dollar goes up. There is not another way. The US is concern that China lower Yuan means our export will cost more than Chinese exports in other countries. That is why the concern about the Yuan drop. China is bleeding money and really did not have much choice. China is exporting 8 plus per cent less this year than last year. We were going to think about raising interest rates from nearly zero percent to .25% but now it would send our dollar way to high.

China's currency problem makes it currency less usable as a reserve currency. This is how you know they really have to let the Yuan drop because they are in trouble.

The lower Yuan also means trouble for the euro zone. The Euro zone already down maybe down more as the Euro and British pound  has also risen against the Yuan making euro export more expensive.

De dollarization is really simple. China and Russia no long can afford dollars. Both countries are going broke.

Nearly all of Asia is having trouble with their economies because of the decline in China. This devaluation by China will make it worse for these other countries. 

WE are slowly going into a global recession and China and Russia is where it is starting and likely to spread to the rest of the planet.

Shoot! I can not easily spend dollars even in the Ukraine. It does not mean the country does not want my dollars but it is just not the currency in which local business is done in. I really hate it when I travel there and somebody want to be paid in dollars because I am sure I am being ripped off. Here when people want to pay me in Canadian dollars that is a problem also. Because  have to go to a bank and exchange and pay a commission. Nothing wrong with there money just not easy for me to spend.

In the Ukraine, US Dollars, Rubles and Euros are all easy to exchange.

Why in the world would you go to China with US dollars? Why not Euros? You could change dollars at an exchange to Yuan or you could exchange Euro just as easy.

By the way the Russian currency has performed about as bad as the Ukrainian currency over the last 12 months.
 
Reduction in oil prices causes our economy to do better. The shell oil business is a short term business. The wells only produce for about one year then they have to drill a new one. It is a business that has a very fast payout. Drilling in this area has slowed down and most wells have either paid or not by now. Anybody who still has a lot of active well only has themselves to blame. Lower oil prices is what is keeping the USA economy going for now.



 

Online B.B.

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2015, 10:03:16 PM »
I'm always amused, here, by the Johnny One Notes who believe their own biases and tell each other ghost stories around the campfire...

The Arabs could, of course, denominate oil in Euros or other currencies, including creating an oil-backed Dinar, one supposes, although they are not likely to do so.   

I'm sure Andrew can explain this better than me Cuffy, but my understanding is that China choosing to devalue their currency also brings down the dollar.

Not really.  The devaluation of the RMB actually weakens it against the dollar (although this has the effect of making US imports to China more expensive, in relative terms, and exports to the US from China less expensive).  It's that latter one that China was after, as they are going to have a bumpy ride with their economy in the coming months. 

China is focused on not becoming the next Japan....and they may be too late.  They are going to have something of a pension crisis and a health care crisis and a collapse of their real estate markets as their population declines over the next few years.  The drop after 2025 is going to be precipitous.

I would expect the dollar to rise as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates (depending on Yellen's view of the strength of the US economy (which ain't like it was, but is still better than most places are at the moment) and in particular, jobs) and the Euro nearly went down the EUrinal over Greece (Which is merely a rounding error to the US). 

Also, as they don't borrow externally, and have so much less exposure as their own currency isn't yet as widely used abroad (which is rapidly changing), it doesn't really hurt them. It simply makes their exports more competitive.

Yes, well, the RMB is actually, on any given day the 6th-9th most traded currency, but so long as China maintains capital controls on it (i.e. the foreseeable future) it's not going to become a reserve currency.  I realize how much you dislike the dollar, as an extension of your dislike for American foreign policy, however the dollar ain't goin' anywhere anytime soon.

I fondly recall the introduction of the Euro, and how the French, in particular pissed all over themselves at the prospect of dethroning the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency and....well, not much has changed. 

 :coffeeread:

B/B

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2015, 02:12:08 AM »
BB doesn't post so often, but agree or not - his posts always make me smile.

To our cousins across the pond - please do not think the [derogatory term removed]'s of this world speak for anything like the majority of Europeans

If one opens a bank account in Russia, you are offered a Dollar and Euro account..... I though that spoke volumes  :coffeeread:

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2015, 06:42:24 AM »
What is more important is the fact that history goes round in circles and EVERY empire eventually comes to and end and has done for thousands of years :)

So it really doesn't matter about the $ because sometime in the future the US empire will also come to and end. I prey it will not go on as long as the Roman empire :laugh:

The sooner the better tiphat
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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2015, 09:18:31 AM »
When Rome fell the whole planet went in to the dark ages for about a thousand years. Humans lived with very much less. Be careful what you wish for as you may get it. We are I believe on the verge of a world wide recession that could get much worse it there is some type of war or if the momentary system falls.

You guy across the pond read and believe everything anti American you read.  The picture you paint for yourself is much worse that what is real. When the system is replaced it is likely to be much less kind than what you now enjoy. 

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #25 on: August 13, 2015, 10:48:13 AM »
When Rome fell the whole planet went in to the dark ages for about a thousand years. Humans lived with very much less. Be careful what you wish for as you may get it. We are I believe on the verge of a world wide recession that could get much worse it there is some type of war or if the momentary system falls.

You guy across the pond read and believe everything anti American you read.  The picture you paint for yourself is much worse that what is real. When the system is replaced it is likely to be much less kind than what you now enjoy.

The world never came to an end when the British Empire came to an end? Life goes as it has for thousands of years, history tells us that. So I will not loose any sleep about the fact that one day the same fate will await the US.
Every empire comes to an end. Or is anyone here so stupid they think they can re-write history and the US empire is here for eternity  :laugh:

I support no government anywhere, ever, never. No institution, No religion!!

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #26 on: August 13, 2015, 11:43:25 AM »
The British Empire has never truly ended yet it just part of it moved west to British off spring in the America's and part move east to Europe and still with the same race and cultural of people, which let you be in the top one percent earnings of the world. This is why there was not great lost. This time it will be lost of the European people's empire as wealth will move away from European people and their off spring in America. Go ahead and hate all the advances you have in life they are not likely to last so you will not mind losing them.

Read below about the great new empire that is likely to that will one day take over.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/isis-enshrines-a-theology-of-rape/ar-BBlHDWR?ocid=U218DHP



Online Steveboy

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #27 on: August 13, 2015, 12:02:24 PM »
The British Empire has never truly ended yet it just part of it moved west to British off spring in the America's and part move east to Europe and still with the same race and cultural of people, which let you be in the top one percent earnings of the world. This is why there was not great lost. This time it will be lost of the European people's empire as wealth will move away from European people and their off spring in America. Go ahead and hate all the advances you have in life they are not likely to last so you will not mind losing them.

Read below about the great new empire that is likely to that will one day take over.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/isis-enshrines-a-theology-of-rape/ar-BBlHDWR?ocid=U218DHP

Yes thats going to be the next Empire for sure. They do not really even need to fight for it. Just migrate to Europe and breed like rabbits , thirty years time "Job done"
Sterilisation maybe an answer to that :smokin:
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Offline Anteros

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #28 on: August 13, 2015, 04:36:12 PM »
When Rome fell the whole planet went in to the dark ages for about a thousand years. Humans lived with very much less. Be careful what you wish for as you may get it. We are I believe on the verge of a world wide recession that could get much worse it there is some type of war or if the momentary system falls.

You guy across the pond read and believe everything anti American you read.  The picture you paint for yourself is much worse that what is real. When the system is replaced it is likely to be much less kind than what you now enjoy.

The world never came to an end when the British Empire came to an end? Life goes as it has for thousands of years, history tells us that. So I will not loose any sleep about the fact that one day the same fate will await the US.
Every empire comes to an end. Or is anyone here so stupid they think they can re-write history and the US empire is here for eternity  :laugh:

The US empire will not end in your lifetime, so go ahead and keep dreaming your sad and delusional "dreams".   :laugh:
Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.

Offline Anteros

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Re: De-Dollarisation.
« Reply #29 on: August 13, 2015, 04:39:42 PM »
I'm always amused, here, by the Johnny One Notes who believe their own biases and tell each other ghost stories around the campfire...

The Arabs could, of course, denominate oil in Euros or other currencies, including creating an oil-backed Dinar, one supposes, although they are not likely to do so.   

I'm sure Andrew can explain this better than me Cuffy, but my understanding is that China choosing to devalue their currency also brings down the dollar.

Not really.  The devaluation of the RMB actually weakens it against the dollar (although this has the effect of making US imports to China more expensive, in relative terms, and exports to the US from China less expensive).  It's that latter one that China was after, as they are going to have a bumpy ride with their economy in the coming months. 

China is focused on not becoming the next Japan....and they may be too late.  They are going to have something of a pension crisis and a health care crisis and a collapse of their real estate markets as their population declines over the next few years.  The drop after 2025 is going to be precipitous.

I would expect the dollar to rise as the Fed is expected to raise interest rates (depending on Yellen's view of the strength of the US economy (which ain't like it was, but is still better than most places are at the moment) and in particular, jobs) and the Euro nearly went down the EUrinal over Greece (Which is merely a rounding error to the US). 

Also, as they don't borrow externally, and have so much less exposure as their own currency isn't yet as widely used abroad (which is rapidly changing), it doesn't really hurt them. It simply makes their exports more competitive.

Yes, well, the RMB is actually, on any given day the 6th-9th most traded currency, but so long as China maintains capital controls on it (i.e. the foreseeable future) it's not going to become a reserve currency.  I realize how much you dislike the dollar, as an extension of your dislike for American foreign policy, however the dollar ain't goin' anywhere anytime soon.

I fondly recall the introduction of the Euro, and how the French, in particular pissed all over themselves at the prospect of dethroning the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency and....well, not much has changed. 

 :coffeeread:

B/B

Succinct and on the money as usual, and in this case much to the chagrin of the [derogatory term removed]'s of this forum, that would be US money.   :thumbsup:  tiphat  :ROFL:
Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.