President Trump

[Texan77]

Did you get this from this video?

Why do you think we should of elected Hillary? What qualities do you think she had that would made life in the USA better?

[TomT]

But here's a useful chart of the stock market gains since Trump won the election.

Only a damn fool would say that Ronald Reagan was responsible for the correction of 1987, yet you are happy to credit Trump for the recent market growth despite his having little to do with it. 

[TomT]

Using your reasoning, Obama deserves some credit also.

https://www.5yearcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/dow-jones-10y.png

[andrewfi]

Given that market prices are a reflection of current sentiment it is not unreasonable to attribute some part of the state of the market to Trump and the sentiment that he engenders.

How much is a guess but noting the timing of inflection points might be indicative.

[Ste]

Did you get this from this video?

Why do you think we should of elected Hillary? What qualities do you think she had that would made life in the USA better?

I don’t. You just shouldn’t have elected Trumpton.


.

[Texan77]

You are just complaining without having any view of what should of been done. Why does Trump bother you so much? He is not your president. If Europe is laughing why should you care? In three more years we have another election. What is happening in these three years that is effecting you in a negative way? How is Donald Trump having a negative impact on you and/or your family's life that you should be so unhappy about him?

Some members here I suspect are paid pro Russian trolls. I am not aware of the anti Trump groups hiring any trolls. So I doubt you getting paid to hate him.  So what is the REAL problem?

[Ste]

You are just complaining without having any view of what should of been done. Why does Trump bother you so much? He is not your president. If Europe is laughing why should you care? In three more years we have another election. What is happening in these three years that is effecting you in a negative way? How is Donald Trump having a negative impact on you and/or your family's life that you should be so unhappy about him?

Some members here I suspect are paid pro Russian trolls. I am not aware of the anti Trump groups hiring any trolls. So I doubt you getting paid to hate him.  So what is the REAL problem?

He’s got the nuke codes and is dumb enough to use them.




.

[rosco]

You are just complaining without having any view of what should of been done. Why does Trump bother you so much? He is not your president. If Europe is laughing why should you care? In three more years we have another election. What is happening in these three years that is effecting you in a negative way? How is Donald Trump having a negative impact on you and/or your family's life that you should be so unhappy about him?

Some members here I suspect are paid pro Russian trolls. I am not aware of the anti Trump groups hiring any trolls. So I doubt you getting paid to hate him.  So what is the REAL problem?

He’s got the nuke codes and is dumb enough to use them.




.

To be fair, you jump on him for anything & everything. It's called an obsession. I don't particularly like the bloke either but I can see bullying and obsession a mile away.

If folk like you and the liberal press jumped on him for his howlers, you'd get a good bit of mileage. Jump on him for not wearing shades whilst looking at the eclipse or laughing at him when another head of state shakes someone else's hand first - that's childish and bitter.

[andrewfi]

Why do you, Ste, keep on with the 'dumb' stuff.
Put it in other terms, if you are so bright, why are you not King of the World?

The guy is demonstrably not stupid, he may have other faults but a low intellectual capacity is not one of them. Problem is that when you (and millions of others) persist in carrying around a delusion how can you, or your deluded peers, make rational, objective, choices?

The trick is to recognise, in so far as is possible, the reality and deal with that. Among those realities is, almost certainly, that Trump does not have the capability to initiate the use of nuclear weapons. You'd be better to be concerned about those who are more likely to do so. By maintaining your delusional state you render yourself unable to see alternatives and, possibly, in some small way, do something about them.

[TomT]

Given that market prices are a reflection of current sentiment it is not unreasonable to attribute some part of the state of the market to Trump and the sentiment that he engenders.

How much is a guess but noting the timing of inflection points might be indicative.

1) "The Dow Jones industrial average: 1896-2016"  My link had issues.

2) You failed to mention which demographic owns the lion's share of the outstanding stock.

3) I'm surprised that you don't see the problem with ANT's chart; it's as plain as the nose on my face.

[TomT]

Some members here I suspect are paid pro Russian trolls. I am not aware of the anti Trump groups hiring any trolls. So I doubt you getting paid to hate him.  So what is the REAL problem?

I couldn't agree more: you are unaware.

[msmoby]

He’s got the nuke codes and is dumb enough to use them.

Quite ... He's a misogynistic  whose used his Dad's inheritance, unwisely... 

To be fair, you jump on him for anything & everything. It's called an obsession. I don't particularly like the bloke either but I can see bullying and obsession a mile away.

Another candidate for 'quote of the week' - irony filter clearly non-functional..

If folk like you and the liberal press jumped on him for his howlers, you'd get a good bit of mileage. Jump on him for not wearing shades whilst looking at the eclipse or laughing at him when another head of state shakes someone else's hand first - that's childish and bitter.

Well, Ste - yet another candidate for " you think the Emperor IS actually wearing clothes" ... ?

Rosco, are you relying on Trump for your livelihood ?  When he ( finally) comes to the UK he can expect a bumpy ride ... The guy is single-handedly managing to lower the standing of his nation without and I simply wonder at those still believing in him at home.....   

[andrewfi]

What chart?
I don't need to look at a chart to tell me that market prices, any market, are based upon the sentiments of market participants.

On any chart showing historical data you will see that significant changes (inflection points) are related to changes in the way that market participants valued the market in question. Those changes are based upon a reaction to events in the outside world.

Does not matter who owns the goods in question the buyer buys at a price because of his belief in the future value of the item. The sellers sells at the price because of his belief in the future of the item. This can be expressed in different words but the meaning will be pretty much the same.

In terms of stock markets in the US, prices are rising because buyers think that the future looks brighter now than it did yesterday. The single biggest change in the USA that correlates positively with the market indices is the Trump presidency. Of course there are a myriad of other perceptions in play accounting for smaller peaks and troughs but the large trend is IMHO driven by Trump's presence and positive sentiment about a Trump future. Think of it this way: it certainly isn't about the leadership of Obama or Clinton.

[Tom Cat]

The Real Russia-Gate Will Take Down Hillary Clinton

http://russia-insider.com/en/real-russia-gate-will-take-down-hillary-clinton/ri21287

[TomT]

Andy,

Even if your sentiment/stock price theory is correct, it falls short because those who own little or no stock are underrepresented or not represented at all. It's not surprising that the wealthy have positive sentiment when they expect to be enriched at the expense of everyone else. Those who will be hurt the most are highly educated professions, such as B.B., who have pockets deep enough to steal plenty from but not deep enough to qualify for the massive tax breaks that the wealthy enjoy.

 http://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/517975766/while-trump-touts-stock-market-many-americans-left-out-of-the-conversation 


 

[andrewfi]

Tom, you are choosing to change the topic of discussion. It seems that you now understand and agree the point I was making but in order to feel better are now expanding the topic outside of the original parameters. That's OK but it is faulty thinking and you need to be aware of that fact.

Of course, objectively, Trump has huge support, he won an election based upon millions of people voting for him but they were not the point of the discussion. You were criticising the suggestion that there was a Trump  Effect visible in US stock markets. Now you know that it is almost certain that there is and the way in which the effect works, albeit in very condensed terms - there's many books on market pricing and I wrote only a couple of brief forum posts.

[B.B.]

It's not surprising that the wealthy have positive sentiment when they expect to be enriched at the expense of everyone else.

Kindly explain the "at the expense of everyone else" bit.

Those who will be hurt the most are highly educated professions, such as B.B., who have pockets deep enough to steal plenty from but not deep enough to qualify for the massive tax breaks that the wealthy enjoy.

Actually, where Trump's plan, as proposed, would really hurt me is in the changes to deductions.  I already get screwed by the AMT, and if all deductions for state taxes come off the table, that would hurt because I live in a high-tax state.  I have a couple of options to move to low tax states, which I am considering anyway, because a basic estimate of net gain to me, including compounding, comes out to be several hundred thousand dollars.  While I am still a W-2 guy (wages/salary, for non US types) I am transitioning to becoming more of a "cash flow" guy.  To the extent that taxes impose an increasing burden on me, that will only hasten my departure from the cold Northeast to warmer (and financially friendlier) climbs.

B/B

[Wiz]

Let's take a look to the background of president Trump, so we can understand what some people are talking about.

What kind of businessman is Trump, what does he do and what is his business?

He deals in real estate, infrastructure and casinos.

How Trump has built his business empire?

With the backing of the “mafia” and help of the organized crime, which Trump has not tried to hide these "acquaintances".

The American press is full of reports about the suspicious connections of the Trump Empire to the American mafia's “geniuses”, since the time he was levelling the New York slums in the 1970s and 1980s.

It was “Mafia” the one who paved his way to transform an old working class town to the “Atlantic City” - the Las Vegas on the East Coast were Trump have the three biggest casinos.

It was “mafia” that saved him when Tramp was involved into four fraudulent bankruptcies in 1991, 1992, 2004 and 2009. The Trump Empire was and remains one of the largest laundering operations for mafia funds and generally the organized crime in USA.

So with the help of “mafia” and the organised crime he became President of the USA. Mafia finally achieved the top prize.

The FBI has a massive file for Tramp's mafia transactions. That's why Trump when he just settled down in the White House, the first thing he did was tried to control the FBI by firing its manager. There were rumours that he was ready to go ahead with revelations against the newly elected President.

Since then, the White House has launched an entire campaign to stop the media, but also the FBI executives from publishing the Trump folder.

However, at the Ministry of Justice, a team of experienced prosecutors is conducting a rapidly evolving research into the possible links of the Trump campaign with Russia and whether President Donald Trump himself may be guilty of impeding justice. Headed by Specialist Robert Mueller, former FBI Director, the group includes 16 lawyers, leading professionals such as Michael Dreeben, a criminal law expert, who has supported more than 100 cases before the US Supreme Court and the Andrew Weissmann, who made a career and a name by chasing organized crime.

Many consider it unavoidable, that sooner or later, President Trump's referral to the Supreme Court for hampering justice in terms of scrutinizing his empire's links with the organized crime. He had not only links with the domestic mafia, but also with the Russian mafia, to which Trump had the opportunity to launder money to and from Russia. Especially since the US imposed a sanction regime against Russia.

That is why Trump was recently forced to accept the vote on the bill on new sanctions against Russia, although he had formally stated that he disagrees not only with the bill, but also with the sanctions against Russia.

And if all this was not enough, on the 16 August 2017 the US was shocked by the news that the Australian government had denied Trump to set up a casino in Sydney in 1987. The official reason for denial was stated to be, Trump's connections with the “Mafia”.

The current US president, in partnership with the “Kern Corporation”, a Queensland-based planning company, was one of the four groups that made an offer for the lucrative “Darling Harbour” project in Sydney.

The government rejected the proposal of the Trump / Kern joint venture on 5 May 1987. Why did it refuse? Because Australia's New South Wales Police Council (NSW) recommended that the offer from the New York businessman to be rejected because it would be "dangerous."

"Atlantic City would be a dubious model for Sydney, and at our discretion, Trump's connections with the Mafia should exclude the Kern / Trump Joint Venture," summarizes the report of the police council delivered to the government on 4 May 1987. The concerns of the New South Wales government regarding Trump's bid had not been made public then.

However, according to the rules applicable to the declassification of the official documents of the New South Wales Cabinet, several reports on this case were published on “The Australian” newspaper on Wednesday 16/8/2017.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/16/trump-mafia-connections-blocked-bid-to-open-sydney-casino-30-years-ago.html

And as the American press, electronic and printed, was in full swing, Both Laura Trump and the White House refused to comment on the case.

That is the new “Leader” of the USA and the world!

[rosco]

He’s got the nuke codes and is dumb enough to use them.

Quite ... He's a misogynistic  whose used his Dad's inheritance, unwisely... 

To be fair, you jump on him for anything & everything. It's called an obsession. I don't particularly like the bloke either but I can see bullying and obsession a mile away.

Another candidate for 'quote of the week' - irony filter clearly non-functional..

If folk like you and the liberal press jumped on him for his howlers, you'd get a good bit of mileage. Jump on him for not wearing shades whilst looking at the eclipse or laughing at him when another head of state shakes someone else's hand first - that's childish and bitter.

Well, Ste - yet another candidate for " you think the Emperor IS actually wearing clothes" ... ?

Rosco, are you relying on Trump for your livelihood ?  When he ( finally) comes to the UK he can expect a bumpy ride ... The guy is single-handedly managing to lower the standing of his nation without and I simply wonder at those still believing in him at home.....

I’m not entirely sure what that was Moby. Are you ok?

[msmoby]

I’m not entirely sure what that was Moby. Are you ok?

Fine, thanks.. I'm more worried for you

[2tallbill]

Andy,

Even if your sentiment/stock price theory is correct, it falls short because those who own little or no stock are underrepresented or not represented at all.

52% of Americans own stock. The poor, the working poor and the lower income working
class were hurt the most/helped the least during the Obama slow growth recovery of part
time jobs. The stock market went up a ton during Obama as well, It was mostly because
the fed pumped money into the economy with quantitative easing.

Federal Reserve Money Printing Is The Real Reason Why The Stock Market Is Soaring
https://financialplannerinneworleans.com/federal-reserve-money-printing-real-reason-stock-market-soaring/

What did Trump do to cause the market to go up? It was mostly cutting regulations and 
promises to cut taxes that caused perception of good times ahead. It could easily turn
around if the GOP legislature botches the tax reforms and/or the Fed decides that it needs
to suck all that money back out of the economy.

As Economy Grows, Fed Set to Shrink Bond Holdings
The Fed, concerned about the reaction in financial markets, has tried to eliminate any
suspense by publishing a detailed schedule and promising to move very slowly. But just
as the Fed’s bond purchases after the 2008 crisis were unprecedented, the retreat will
again take the reserve banking system into uncharted territory. No one can be certain
what will happen.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/business/fed-bonds-economy.html

[2tallbill]

Quite ... He's a misogynistic  whose used his Dad's inheritance, unwisely... 

Frederick Christ Trump Sr. (October 11, 1905 – June 25, 1999) Trump was somewhere
around a billion dollars in 1998 the year before he would have split his inheritance with
his 3 surviving siblings. His inheritance was icing on the cake, but he already had his
cake.

Trump was down the list of who I liked the most for the GOP primaries. I liked Cruz and
Rand Paul significantly more. I do like the fact that he fights back, something that team
establishment Bush/Romney/Dole/Ford/McCain et al never did.

[TomT]

It seems that you now understand and agree the point I was making but in order to feel better are now expanding the topic outside of the original parameters.

You crack me up, Andrew, especially in regard to feeling better about myself.

It was necessary to take a different tack because you ignored, or pretended not to understand, my earlier point about ANT's ridiculous cartoon. Since it appears to be necessary, I'll lay out my argument in terms that even he would understand.

Our prodigy of an Economics 101 student posted a chart that was created by a famous Conservative unthink-tank, showing a exaggerated depiction of Trump's "accomplishments" and completely ignoring that Obama inherited a market that was in free fall and, during his tenure, presided over the second-longest bull market in history. Trump, on the other hand, inherited a strong market and the growth that has occurred since are the result of fundamentals that were built during his predecessor's administration. That MOAA has a long history of taking credit for things that he had nothing to do with and placing blame on Obama for everything else. The mentally afflicted are OK with this but, with your intellect, you should not be.

If your sentiment theory holds, and I believe that it only contains a weak correlation at best, then ANT should have given Obama more credit than he gave Trump... but it never crossed our Wikipedia-educated scholar's mind.

p.s.  As you are probably aware, I'm using your signature debating style against you. Irritating, isn't it?

[Contrarian]

As Bill so wisely pointed out printing tons of paper in order to reward Wall Street speculators is hardly good economic policy.

Obama ran up about 9 Trillion dollars in debt in 8 short years; more debt than previous Presidents had run up in 200+ years.

Job creators (business owners) are the ultimate authority of how tax policy can benefit the middle class and others. Not a community organizer whose primary accomplishment was record debt.

Vice President Mike Pence:
"Job creators in Buffalo told me yesterday why President Donald J. Trump's plan to cut taxes for working families will help small businesses grow." #VPinNY

http://buffalonews.com/2017/10/17/live-coverage-vice-president-mike-pence-buffalo/

[TomT]

Kindly explain the "at the expense of everyone else" bit.

Trump has no regard for anyone but young photomodels from foreign shit holes or fellow billionaires. To him, millionaires are trash, just like the poor. It means nothing to him that professionals, such as yourself, studied hard, trained themselves further and applied their knowledge to rise to the top of their game. Such professionals have achieved the impossible so often that it has become the status quo and it is expected of them. Our moron-in-chief has no appreciation of their intelligence and perseverance because he has neither; he achieved his goals simply by screwing people.

If the Donald is consistent with his character traits, I believe that he will preside over the greatest transfer of wealth in American history and the top 1% will be the beneficiaries.

It's a pity that people are forced to relocate to keep more of the assets that they worked for and deserve to keep. On a dollar basis, you will be screwed more than those who are only fit to glue insoles to midsoles in a Nike factory but, unlike them, you have a strong CV and marketable skills that you can take anywhere.