How to survive the Global Chaos of 2015

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http://nomadcapitalist.com/2015/03/27/the-best-offshore-banks-2015/  (For Americans too)

PM me if interested in the PDF.

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Lucid new video regarding the New FDIC insured Future Economies of the World "BRICMITs" Currencies Basket CD created with Jeff Opdyke of the Sovereign Society and Everbank in Jacksonville FLa.

Concept is US Dollar is currently high due to a number of unusual factors, Russia Ukraine Crisis, Japan forced Yen devaluation to keep Toyota et al competitive as global manufacturers, and the EURO issues with PIIGS etc and lastly the Brazil Real volatility.

https://sovereignsociety.s3.amazonaws.com/HTML/everbank_future_economies.html

Now is basically the time to buy this CD because the USA Dollar is at a peak in relative value which will not remain that way as the above currencies begin to rebound and FDIC insured for what it is worth.

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Is the Yuan a Threat to the Dollar?
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Profit Seeker

Yesterday, I closed a Hong Kong trade in Profit Seeker, my global-investing service, and banked a 67% return in just six months.

The gain came in shares of HKEx, the parent company of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. I’d recommended the stock back in October, in anticipation of an arrangement few investors or Wall Street pros were paying attention to.

How did I see what others didn’t? Well, the answer to that explains how you need to be investing today based on what else I see in the offing.

For months prior to it happening, I knew Hong Kong and China were moving toward a cross-border link with their stock markets. The link would allow Hong Kong traders to buy China’s Shanghai-listed A-shares, a share class that has been available only to Chinese residents, while allowing Chinese institutional investors and certain retail clients to trade directly in Hong Kong shares.

Once in place, the arrangement was clearly going to benefit the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, since it would mean greater trading volumes, which would translate into greater profits for the exchange and its parent company. It also clearly meant that HKEx would begin building various products aimed at investors on both sides of the border.

And that is exactly what has happened. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange saw record volume earlier this month. And already Hong Kong and Chinese authorities are talking about relaxing the rules to allow even greater numbers of Chinese retail investors to participate in the link, because it has proven so successful.

But there’s a bigger, underlying theme: The arrangement is a form of cross-border capital flow, meaning that China, once largely closed off to the world financially, has effectively opened its financial market to the world. Anyone with an account in Hong Kong can trade the Shanghai A-shares directly.

And that brings me to what’s in the offing.

The Fall of King Dollar

Against America’s wishes, the International Monetary Fund announced this month that, before the end of the year, the Chinese currency, the yuan, will likely be added to the basket of reserve currencies that comprise the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights, known as SDRs. IMF officials at the very top said the yuan should be part of the SDRs because of China’s heft in the global economy and its position as the world’s largest trading nation.

Putting China in the basket of reserve currencies would instantly legitimize the yuan as a global currency on equal footing with our greenback, and it would mean that the world’s countries would need to pare their other reserve-currency holdings to make room for the yuan.

The dollar would be one of the currencies sold, reducing the greenback’s prestige a bit, elevating China’s and serving as a clear sign the dollar’s long-standing status as reserve-currency to the world is in its waning days.

To be clear, this isn’t specifically a China story. The IMF’s thinking simply — but unquestionably — foreshadows a future that is growing closer by the moment. It is a future in which King Dollar has been dethroned.

It won’t be dethroned by China alone. It will be dethroned by the global trading community that is growing exceedingly weary of a dollar-centric world and the advantages that accrue to America while imposing costs and other unsavory ramifications on other nations.

Diversify Now

When the death knell sounds, the costs in our lives as Americans will ratchet higher. Demand for the dollar will sharply reduce, weakening the dollar while at the same time raising interest rates (since our federal government will have to pay higher rates on Treasury paper to entice global buyers). Too many Americans will not see this coming. They will be dumbfounded by the financial impacts that befall their lives.

The best preparation for what is so clearly on the horizon is diversifying your assets away from dollar dependence. You don’t have to wholesale dump your dollars. But you most assuredly want some of your money in non-dollar assets such as foreign stocks and certificates of deposit denominated in various global currencies.

America and our dollar had a helluva run. But the status quo is never static.

Until next time, stay Sovereign…

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker

P.S. The decline of the dollar is just the start of America’s problems, as we struggle with mounting debt, privacy invasion and an all-too-aggressive police force. It’s time to start creating your Plan B to protect your assets and your freedom. The Passport Book by Bob Bauman offers critical insight into numerous countries. Discover what you need to know to acquire a second residence or a second passport. Click here to learn more.

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TPP - Sovereign Society warns about it:

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/asset-protection/americas-trans-pacific-partnership/

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Ron Paul at his best outlining the exact steps to take before the USAs looming currency crisis as outlined in multiple previous posts above...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=27&v=zHNfPK0fQw4

[Orchid]

I usually do not post here, but it is my favorite thread.
Always interesting!!!

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Ron Paul at his best outlining the exact steps to take before the USAs looming currency crisis as outlined in multiple previous posts above...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=27&v=zHNfPK0fQw4

Ok I bought the book and the investment analysis reports if anyone wants a pdf copy PM me

[cufflinks]

I usually do not post here, but it is my favorite thread.
Always interesting!!!

I have one fan at least - thank you very much ;-)

[cufflinks]

Designing your own private pension:

12 Stocks to Earn Dividends Every Month to create your own private pension
Note: Realty Income, Potash and J&J each over 4%.
January: Occidental Petroleum

Yield (as of May 4): 3.6%

52-week high: $101.38

52-week low: $71.70

5-year dividend growth rate: 16.9%

Last dividend increases: 12.5% in February 2014 and 4.2% in October 2014

Also pays in: April, July, October
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is primarily a domestic oil and gas producer, with much of its exploration in California and in shale formations in Texas and North Dakota. It differs from some other large oil companies in that it doesn't have a low-profit refining and marketing business. It also says, emphatically, in its investor presentations that increasing its dividend is a higher priority than making acquisitions, buying back stock or piling up reserves.

February: Realty Income

Yield (as of May 4): 4.8%

52-week high: $55.54

52-week low: $40.56

5-year dividend growth rate: 5.7%

Last dividend increase: 0.3% in March 2015

Also pays in: Every month
This real estate investment trust pioneered the strategy of buying or building free-standing drugstores, restaurants, cinemas, fitness centers and similar buildings and leasing them to familiar chains, which pay the rent, maintenance and taxes. Realty Income (O) pays dividends every month and raises the rate several times a year, though slowly and usually by small amounts. The REIT is safe and consistent, with more than 500 consecutive monthly dividends to its credit.

March: Intel

Yield (as of May 4): 2.9%

52-week high: $37.90

52-week low: $25.74

5-year dividend growth rate: 8.8%

Last dividend increase: 6.7% in January 2015

Also pays in: June, September, December
Intel (INTC), which makes semiconductors and processors, is one of tech’s most committed dividend-payers. Intel is fighting slowing growth in sales of desktop and laptop computers—its largest sources of sales and profits—and as it makes inroads into smartphones and tablets, its cash flow will grow and higher dividends should follow.

April: McCormick

Yield (as of May 4): 2.1%

52-week high: $78.70

52-week low: $64.92

5-year dividend growth rate: 9.0%

Last dividend increase: 8.1% in November 2014

Also pays in: January, October, December
The world’s leading maker of spices and flavorings, McCormick (MKC) grows steadily in part by taking over competitors’ brands and introducing American favorites to the rest of the world. Its profit margin is more than twice that of the meatpackers whose steaks and chops star in McCormick’s recipes. Plus, the company has little debt.

May: Procter & Gamble

Yield (as of May 4): 3.2%

52-week high: $93.89

52-week low: $77.29

5-year dividend growth rate: 6.6%

Last dividend increase: 3.0% in April 2015

Also pays in: August, November, February
Procter & Gamble (PG) is the archetypal solid, predictable, low-stress growth stock. It is so huge that a single-digit dividend growth rate may be all you can expect—but that's good enough considering that it usually yields more than 3%.
 
June: WisdomTree MidCap ETF

Yield (as of May 4): 2.3%

52-week high: $87.34

52-week low: $73.63

5-year dividend growth rate: 26.6%

Last dividend increase: 17.3% in March 2015

Also pays in: Every month
Smaller and mid-sized companies have joined the rush to pay higher dividends and WisdomTree MidCap ETF (DON) is a convenient way to sample 400 of them, spanning the economy from utilities to REITs to energy to retail. The fund pays dividends each month, joining Realty Income as 12-time payers in this model portfolio.

July: Kimberly-Clark

Yield (as of May 4): 3.2%

52-week high: $119.01

52-week low: $99.23

5-year dividend growth rate: 5.9%

Last dividend increase: 4.8% in February 2015

Also pays in: October, January, April
The maker of Kleenex, Huggies and Scott paper products resembles Procter & Gamble in that it makes familiar household products and sells them in more than 100 countries. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) has raised dividends every year since the early 1970s and aims to maintain a higher dividend yield than most other industrial and consumer-product companies.

August: Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan

Yield (as of May 4): 4.7%

52-week high: $38.58

52-week low: $31.39

5-year dividend growth rate: 30.6%

Last dividend increase: 8.6% in January 2015

Also pays in: November, February, May
Potash is fertilizer and this Canadian firm could be spreading it on its dividends to produce bigger and higher checks for investors' pockets. Five years ago Potash (POT) paid 1 cents a quarter. Now the dividend is 38 cents, four times a year. The world doesn’t have many sources of this essential resource and while the price can swing like any mineral, the dividend is secure.

September: Johnson & Johnson

Yield (as of May 4): 4.7%

52-week high: $109.49

52-week low: $95.10

5-year dividend growth rate: 6.8%

Last dividend increase: 7.1% in April 2015

Also pays in: December, March, June
A blue-chip cash machine with a great group of global health businesses, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) grows just enough to raise dividends between 5% and 10% a year while the shares almost never misbehave. This is the way the stock market is supposed to work for patient, loyal investors.

October: Automatic Data Processing

Yield (as of May 4): 2.3%

52-week high: $90.23

52-week low: $67.12

5-year dividend growth rate: 7.6%

Last dividend increase: 2.1% in April 2014

Also pays in: January, April, July
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a giant payroll processor and also administers employee-benefits programs. It also profits by investing money it holds for employers before paychecks are cashed and deposited, so even a small rise in interest rates would make it richer. ADP is a financial fortress with $2.0 billion of its own cash and little debt.

November: General Dynamics

Yield (as of May 4): 2.0%

52-week high: $146.13

52-week low: $111.08

5-year dividend growth rate: 10.4%

Last dividend increase: 11.2% in March 2015

Also pays in: February, May, August
A defense industry powerhouse, General Dynamics (GD) also makes private jet planes and offers information-technology management services. Cuts in the military budget (whether rumored or actual) haven’t stopped it from raising dividends briskly every year.

December: American Electric Power

Yield (as of May 4): 3.7%

52-week high: $65.38

52-week low: $49.06

5-year dividend growth rate: 4.8%

Last dividend increase: 6.0% in October 2014

Also pays in: March, June, September
American Electric Power (AEP) is one of the safest traditional regulated utility stocks because the chain operates in 11 states, which spreads the risk from storms and other controversies. AEP also pays a reasonable 59% of its earnings as dividends, which gives it scope to raise the payment even in slow years and makes the chance of cuts extremely low.

Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S013-12-stocks-to-earn-dividends-every-month/index.html#ewdVyQ1pz8rFhB6m.99

[Orchid]

I usually do not post here, but it is my favorite thread.
Always interesting!!!

I have one fan at least - thank you very much ;-)

Of course, I am your fan!!
How it happened that I did not say it before?
I am not sure that finances and business would be my favorite topic after glass of red wine, but with morning coffee it works really well.

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I usually do not post here, but it is my favorite thread.
Always interesting!!!

I have one fan at least - thank you very much ;-)

Of course, I am your fan!!
How it happened that I did not say it before?
I am not sure that finances and business would be my favorite topic after glass of red wine, but with morning coffee it works really well.

LOL Change the wine to Scotch on the rocks and a strong espresso in the morning and that is how I wade through all of this info...

[Eduard]

I usually do not post here, but it is my favorite thread.
Always interesting!!!

I have one fan at least - thank you very much ;-)

make it two ;-)

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OOOPS not looking to good for OZ... or eventually the rest of us - WTF over?

http://nomadcapitalist.com/2015/05/13/wealth-tax-bank-account-capital-flight/

Consider also that in Europe, people are now essentially paying the banks to store their money for them thanks to negative interest rates. Some government paper has achieved the same negative interest rate feat.

It’s outlandish. Just how disastrous is the world financial system that people who have worked hard their entire lives now have to pay six ways to Sunday just to keep their money in cash?

Soon, bank depositors in Australia will feel the same hurt. A new proposal will have Aussie bank depositors paying their own insurance costs. It’s a great example of big government and crony capitalism shifting risk away from institutions and onto consumers.

As socialist economic policies fan out from Europe, I expect more and more countries around the world, and especially in the “fair tax”-ing OECD, to implement similar bank deposit tax measures.
Several commentators have already suggested that Australia is merely a testing ground for public reaction to the scam. If Australians go along with it, the global elite will roll it out to more and more countries such as the United States, Canada, and throughout Europe.

[Manny]

Brits regard Australian banks in good stead. Our own Yorkshire Bank is owned by the Bank of Australia and it is certainly one of the better banks to use here. 

The Australian economy and their dollar has been pretty strong in recent years. As with Canada, they avoided much of the fallout from he 2008 crisis.

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Recession Over then Why are we still in Depression...

Recent Jim Rickards Commentary in the Stansberry Research newsletter digest:

Editor's note: The Stansberry Digest team is traveling today, so we're taking this opportunity to feature some excellent economic commentary from Jim Rickards.

 Regular Digest readers are familiar with Jim's pedigree. He's a financial lawyer with a doctorate and multiple advanced degrees. He is also a hedge-fund manager, a New York Times bestselling author, and a go-to resource for many media outlets, including CNBC and the Financial Times.

 Today, he serves as an advisor to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees more than a dozen U.S. intelligence agencies. He authored one of the biggest "must read" books we've read in a long time – The Death of Money – and recently partnered with our corporate affiliate, Agora Financial, to help his subscribers protect themselves from the global "currency wars."

 The following excerpt comes from a recent issue of Jim's Strategic Intelligence newsletter. We hope you enjoy…

 The United States is living through an economic depression that began in 2007. It's part of a larger global depression, the first since the 1930s. This New Depression will continue indefinitely unless policy changes are made in the years ahead.

 The present path and future course of this depression have profound implications for you as an investor. If you don't grasp this once-in-a-lifetime dynamic, you are at risk of seeing all of your wealth wiped out.

 Calling the current economic malaise a depression comes as a surprise to most investors I speak to. They have been told that the economy is in a recovery that started in 2009.

 Mainstream economists and TV talking heads never refer to a depression.

 Economists don't like the word depression because it does not have an exact mathematical definition. For economists, anything that cannot be quantified does not exist. This view is one of the many failings of modern economics.

 But no one younger than age 90 has ever experienced a depression until now. Most investors like you have no working knowledge of what a depression is or how it affects asset values. And economists and policymakers are engaged in a conspiracy of silence on the subject. It's no wonder investors are confused.

 The starting place for understanding depression is to get the definition right. You may think of depression as a continuous decline in gross domestic product (GDP). The standard definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP and rising unemployment. Since a depression is understood to be something worse than a recession, investors think it must mean an extra-long period of decline. But that is not the definition of depression.

 The best definition ever offered came from John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 classic, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Keynes said a depression is, "a chronic condition of sub-normal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency towards recovery or towards complete collapse."

 Keynes did not refer to declining GDP ; he talked about "sub-normal" activity. In other words, it's entirely possible to have growth in a depression. The problem is that the growth is below trend. It is weak growth that does not do the job of providing enough jobs or staying ahead of the national debt. That is exactly what the U.S. is experiencing today.

 The long-term growth trend for U.S. GDP is about 3%. Higher growth is possible for short periods of time. It could be caused by new technology that improves worker productivity. Or, it could be due to new entrants into the workforce. From 1994 to 2000, the heart of the Clinton boom, growth in the U.S. economy averaged more than 4% per year.

 For a three-year stretch from 1983 to 1985, during the heart of the Reagan boom, growth in the U.S. economy averaged more than 5.5% per year. These two periods were unusually strong, but they show what the U.S. economy can do with the right policies. By contrast, growth in the U.S. from 2007 through 2013 averaged 1% per year. Growth in the first half of 2014 was worse, averaging just 0.95%.

That is the meaning of depression. It is not negative growth, but it is below-trend growth. The past seven years of 1% growth, when the historical growth is 3%, is a depression exactly as Keynes defined it.

 Pundits point to 4% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2014 as proof that the economy is expanding robustly. Talk of depression seems confusing at best and disconcerting at worst. But second-quarter growth was driven by inventory accumulation, which adds nothing to GDP in the long run. When inventories are converted to final sales, U.S. growth was only 0.65% in the first half of 2014. That is not a pace that will sustain an economic recovery.

 Other observers point to declining unemployment and rising stock prices as evidence that we are not in a depression. They miss the fact that unemployment can fall and stocks can go up during a depression. The Great Depression lasted from 1929 to 1940. It consisted of two technical recessions from 1929-1932 and again from 1937-1938.

 The periods from 1933-1936 and from 1939-1940 were technically economic expansions. Unemployment fell and stock prices rose. But the depression continued because the U.S. did not return to its potential growth rate until 1941. Stock and real estate prices did not fully recover their 1929 highs until 1954, a quarter century after the depression started.

 The point is that GDP growth, rising stock prices, and falling unemployment can all occur during depressions, as they do today. What makes it a depression is ongoing below-trend growth that never gets back to its potential. That is exactly what the U.S. economy is experiencing. The New Depression is here.

 Investors are also confused about depression dynamics because they are continually told the U.S. is in a "recovery." Year after year, forecasters at the Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, and on Wall Street crank out forecasts of robust growth. And year after year, they are disappointed. The recovery never seems to get traction. First, there are some signs of growth, then the economy quickly slips back into low-growth or no-growth mode.

 The reason is simple. Typically, a recovery is driven by the Federal Reserve expanding credit and rising wages. When inflation gets too high or labor markets get too tight, the Fed raises rates. That results in tightening credit and increasing unemployment. This normal expansion-contraction dynamic has happened repeatedly since World War II. It's usually engineered by the Federal Reserve in order to avoid inflation during expansions and alleviate unemployment during contractions.

 The result is a predictable wave of expansion and contraction driven by monetary conditions. Investors and the Fed have been expecting another strong expansion since 2009, but it has barely materialized.

 Growth today isn't strong because the problem in the economy is not monetary, it is structural. That's the real difference between a recession and a depression. Recessions are cyclical and monetary in nature. Depressions are persistent and structural in nature. Structural problems cannot be solved with cyclical solutions. This is why the Fed has not ended the depression. The Fed has no power to make structural changes.

 What do I mean by structural changes? Shifts in fiscal and regulatory policies. The list is long but would include things like lower taxes, repeal of Obamacare, approval of the Keystone Pipeline, expanded oil-and-gas production, fewer government regulations, and an improved business climate in areas such as labor laws, litigation reform, and the environment.

 Power to make structural changes lies with Congress and the White House. Those two branches of government are barely on speaking terms. Until structural changes are made by law, the depression will continue and the Fed is powerless to change that.

 The difference between 3% growth and 1% growth may seem small in a single year, but it's enormous over time. From the same starting place, an economy that grows 3% per year for 35 years will be twice as rich as one that grows 1% per year. After 70 years, about an average lifetime, the 3% economy will be four times richer than the 1% economy.

 These differences not only affect your wealth but also the ability of the economy to service its debts. The 3% economy can manage annual deficits of 2% of GDP . The 1% economy will eventually go broke with the same deficits. The difference between 3% growth and 1% growth is lost wealth that can never be recovered. It is the difference between the United States' success and failure as a nation.

 Depressions pose other grave dangers to your wealth. In a depression, there is always the danger that disinflation – or falling inflation – tips into outright deflation. Deflation increases the real value of debt and forces many companies, and ultimately, the banks themselves into bankruptcy.

 On the other hand, the Fed may try so hard to fight the deflation that it ends up causing inflation that destroys the real value of your savings, insurance, annuities, retirement checks, and any other form of fixed income. So far, the Fed has managed to walk a fine line between deflation and inflation, but the situation is highly unstable and is likely to tip one way or the other quickly and soon.

 The depression in the U.S. will continue indefinitely until structural changes are made. The 25-year depression in Japan that began in 1990 is a perfect example of this. The U.S. is now like Japan, and the rest of the world is heading in the same direction. Investors like you are in constant danger; both deflation and inflation are real threats.

 The good news is that structural changes do not happen overnight. They require action by the White House and Congress and such action is the product of debate and compromise that we can see coming.

 If no action is on the horizon, the depression will continue and you can seek shelter from inflation and deflation.

 A balanced portfolio of cash, gold, land, fine art, government bonds, alternative investments, and stocks in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource sectors should do the job. If, however, action is on the horizon, investors can prepare for the expected boom by positioning in technology, venture capital, financials, and other pro-growth cyclical sectors.

 You cannot know which outcome will prevail. But with the right understanding of these depression dynamics, my subscribers know the signs of change and see what's coming.

 Regards,

 Jim Rickards

Editor's note: Jim just launched a brand-new service with a single mission: to help ordinary investors make extraordinary gains from the ongoing currency wars. According to Jim and his team, investors using his new "IMPACT" strategy could have made 530% in less than eight months from a major move in the U.S. dollar… 848% in less than seven months in the euro… and 2,196% in just 10 days in the Swiss franc.

 Normally, we take claims like these with a grain of salt. But Jim has testified before Congress about the risks facing the global financial system… authored two bestselling books on economics… and advised the CIA and the Department of Defense. And if he is willing to put his reputation on the line with this service, we wanted to make sure you knew about it. To learn more about Jim's proprietary trading system, click here.

 New 52-week highs (as of 5/13/15): CDK Global (CDK) and Energy Transfer Equity (ETE).

 We edited today's mailbag slightly for length… but this was one of the most heartfelt letters we've ever received. Send your e-mails of praise or criticism to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

 "I am writing to express my deepest gratitude for your generosity and your concern for the many, many people who you have never met, but to whom your influence is stolidly felt. Indeed, to tell those people, myself included, that which you would want told to you, were the roles reversed.

 "Only 4 years ago there was no way I was getting into the market, considering the recent massacre. Through a colleague, who was speaking one day of graphene, I learned about Stansberry Research. He showed me some excerpts from a couple of newsletters from two guys named Porter Stansberry and Dan Ferris. Hmm… never heard of 'em. My interest was immediately piqued. Still… there had been a massacre!

 "I am an information junkie and love to learn, but the information must come from a reputable and knowledgeable source. I signed up for all I could get of Stansberry Research's 'free stuff,' and even from that, I could tell I was on to something. I signed up for the Stansberry Digest and Steve's DailyWealth with my preciously scant money.

 "Here was knowledge. Understandable concepts. Learning. Consuming every principle, technique, strategy, and nuance on how to wisely invest with information from an organization unclouded by the lure of managing money. 'You just offer information? You don't manage money? How can this be?' I said. Therein, to me, Sir, lies your credibility. You profit from sharing the inestimable value of your hard work and knowledge and you have succeeded and profited on your own merit. You're paid based on what you're worth.

 "Eventually, I committed the money for a Flex Alliance Membership and it has changed my life. Working from the remnants of a portfolio, I was the Manager now. I set to work and with your guidance and armed with the resources I now had available in the Stansberry Research Education Center, Jeff's Technical Analysis methods, Doc's Options Tutorials, and Steve's 'Cheap, Hated, and in an Uptrend' mandates, I posted a 28% gain the first year. (by the rule of 72, I can double my money in only 2.57 years? Give me more of that!) Now, I knew not only how to research, size my positions, REMOVE emotion, strengthen discipline, limit losses, buy and sell options, but… the 'power of doing nothing,' one of the most valuable strategies I now have. I did not mean to leave out all the rest, but you 3 guys were the sources of my learning and new unbridled enthusiasm. I never imagined loving to learn about investing as much as I do now.

 "I do not know where you get it, but your info is months ahead of the talking heads. All newsletters are full of the minutest detail, almost to a fault, but not quite. I love reading it all. Let the non-hackers read the Cliff's notes and garner the fractionally equivalent returns. There is nothing better than a quiet Saturday morning, a quiet tent, a cup of coffee, and a newly published newsletter. I imagine that while I am reading, you are writing yet another article. I watch the talking heads and read reports or articles on Yahoo! Finance (purely for entertainment) and feel sorry for the guys who will only be there for the after-party. I have even anticipated some stop-out recommendations for lucrative pre-emptive strikes. I used to track my own stops, but now am a 'paid up' Lifetime Member of TradeStops, where something exciting is happening every day, and I can get a complete picture of everything I have, everything I want, and everything I need to be wary of, in a couple of clicks.

 "How could I ever thank all of you enough? How could any of we subscribers thank all of you enough? You help us succeed. You help us learn. You help us thrive! I hope the bold claims of extraordinary returns, or even returns which beat the average are certainly gratifying to the entire staff at Stansberry Research. Sometimes, a simple, heartfelt, and expressed, 'thank you' spurs us on to greater commitment to a cause. We all want to be appreciated and recognized, all of us… if we're worthy.

 "To your Stansberry Research staff: On the occasions that I have needed to contact Stansberry Research via e-mail, or by phone, the CS team (I deploy to the Middle East on a regular basis) has always been top notch and offers solutions, not excuses.. As stated, I deploy a lot to the Middle East and East Africa and have always had a positive experience, feeling as if my issue was the only one on their plate, receiving full attention. Stansberry Research is certainly a first-rate outfit and you all reflect great credit upon yourselves." – Paid-up subscriber Neal S. Montgomery

 Regards,

 Stansberry Research
 Baltimore, Maryland
 May 14, 2015


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
 (Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios)

As of 05/13/2015
   
Stock Symbol Buy Date Return Publication Editor
Constellation Brands STZ 06/02/11 445.8% Extreme Value Ferris
Ultra Health Care RXL 03/17/11 426.1% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Ultra Health Care RXL 01/04/12 360.4% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Enterprise EPD 10/15/08 282.1% The 12% Letter Dyson
Altria MO 11/19/08 274.2% The 12% Letter Dyson
Blackstone Group BX 11/15/12 250.2% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Automatic Data Proc ADP 10/09/08 224.4% Extreme Value Ferris
McDonald's MCD 11/28/06 183.7% The 12% Letter Dyson
CVS Caremark CVS 05/12/11 170.8% Retirement Millionaire Eifrig
ProShares Ultra Tech ROM 03/17/11 162.9% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

[RichyRich]

Brits regard Australian banks in good stead. Our own Yorkshire Bank is owned by the Bank of Australia and it is certainly one of the better banks to use here.

Since when did we hold Australian banks in good stead? Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank are not good banks IMO.

If you want good banks, look towards Asia (DBS, OCBC) and to an extent the Middle East (ADCB, QNB, NBAD).

[cufflinks]

    Todays Stansberry Newsletter: The latest signs of a top… M&A is breaking records… Buybacks are soaring… All-time records in art… A $500 million palace… Markel: What do you think?…

  We start today's Digest with the latest signs of a top…

Longtime readers know we are cautious on the market. We believe we're in the final innings of the Bernanke Asset Bubble, the huge bull market in U.S. asset prices fueled by the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies. And while we're not calling a top today, we are seeing more and more signs of the absurd behavior that often precedes a major peak in the market…

  In recent months, we've discussed the sky-high valuations given to popular stocks like Tesla, GoPro, and Shake Shack… We've warned of "froth" in the global bond markets, particularly in high-yield – or "junk" – bonds… And we've noted the massive public interest in tech "startups" and venture capital investing, just to name a few.

Today, we're seeing more…

  Last summer, we noted mergers and acquisitions (M&A) through the first half of 2014hit seven-year highs. On Friday, news service Reuters reported M&A activity is set to break all-time records this year…
Dealmaking in the United States has made its strongest start to a year since Reuters records began in 1980, climbing 52% year on year to $746.9 billion in the January 1 to May 28 period.

M&A activity was boosted this week when Charter Communications said it would acquire larger rival Time Warner Cable for $56 billion and Avago Technologies agreed to buy rival chipmaker Broadcom for $37 billion…

Global M&A activity is up 35% from the same period in 2014, with $1.7 trillion of deals having been struck.


M&A activity is so hot, there's now a website dedicated entirely to speculating on the next big corporate takeovers. As CNBC journalist Herb Greenberg noted last week…
In 1841, Scottish journalist Charles Mackay wrote the classic, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

If he were alive today, Mackay would likely have had a field day with the new website, Mergerize, which by its own description, "crowdsources predictions on mergers and acquisitions."

[A post suggesting] Hain Foods would buy Boulder Brands within a month was merely one Mergerize member's speculation. It's based on nothing and it's the ultimate in maddening crowds becoming delusional, as we speak…


  Companies are also continuing to buy back record amounts of their own stock…

According to a report in the Financial Times, analysts forecast U.S. companies will spend more than $1 trillion on share buybacks and dividends this year. From the FT…
For the first quarter, cash returned to shareholders – consisting of repurchases and dividends – is shaping up as a record $241.7 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, eclipsing the previous high of $233.2 billion achieved during the second quarter of 2007.

Dividends set a new record at $93.6 billion, while companies, led by Apple, have reported buybacks of about $148 billion, up from the previous quarter, but still shy of the record $172 billion recorded for the third quarter of 2007.


Returning $1 trillion to shareholders sounds like great news for investors. But asExtreme Value editor Dan Ferris pointed out in the April 13 Digest, there's more to consider…
Share buybacks are hard to time well. They only work when a company buys back shares at a discount to the value of the business…

To do share buybacks right, the first thing a company has to do is hang onto its cash when the stock is expensive. That's hard, because investors will criticize it for holding too much idle capital. Think of how bullish you and everyone else were in late 2007… right before the S&P 500 peaked that October.

Then, when the market finally falls, companies have to be brave enough to step in and start buying their own shares – hopefully at a discount to what the business is worth.


As Dan explained, that's much easier said than done…
Think of how bearish you were in the spring of 2009, when everyone was scared to death that another Great Depression was coming. Well, the folks running big corporations are human just like you. They bought back their own shares like crazy at the top and bought back very little at the bottom.

It makes you wonder if all these buybacks aren't a massive sign of an impending market top…

S&P 500 companies spent a record of roughly $180 billion on share buybacks in the fourth quarter of 2007, right as the stock market peaked, according to the FactSet Buyback Quarterly. At the bottom in early 2009, the same group of companies spent around $30 billion on buybacks.


  We're also seeing signs of "froth" outside the stock market. Last month, two all-time sales records were broken in the art world…

According to the Washington Post, a 1955 painting by Pablo Picasso, titled "Women of Algiers (Version O)," sold for a record $179.4 million at London auction house Christie's. The sale set the record for the most expensive work of art ever sold at auction by more than $30 million. The previous record was set in 2013, when a painting by Francis Bacon sold for $142.4 million.

On the same night, a 1947 sculpture by Alberto Giacometti sold for $141.3 million, setting the record for most expensive sculpture in history, as well. From the article…
Figures like these will certainly raise eyebrows, especially at a time when investors worldwide have jitters about high prices in stocks, bonds and other assets. Some art collectors may be remembering the market's last contraction, which began in 1989 and lasted several years. Prices took more than a decade to recover.

"Is the art market now in a bubble? Is the bubble about to burst?" the economist Nouriel Roubini, who famously predicted the financial crisis of 2008, wrote in a note to investors earlier this year. "These questions are now being raised about the art market."


  We could soon see an outrageous new record in the real estate market as well. Film producer and real estate developer Nile Niami is hoping to build the most expensive "spec" house in history…

When completed, the 100,000-plus square foot "palace" in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Bel Air will be one of the largest homes in U.S. history. And at the planned asking price, it would more than double the previous record for most expensive home in the world. Says Niami, "The house will have almost every amenity available in the world. The asking price will be $500 million…"

  Again, we're not calling for a top today. The market can and likely will go higher. But we've seen enough to be cautious. As we've advised before, consider selling your riskiest stocks, watch your stop losses closely, and don't buy ridiculously overvalued assets.

  Speaking of records, shares of coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX) hit a new all-time high on Friday. Starbucks is undoubtedly one of the most popular stocks in the market… but unlike some of those we mentioned earlier, it's also a great business. As Editor in Chief Brian Hunt wrote in the Market Notes section of the March 18 DailyWealth…
Starbucks is one of America's best businesses. It has a terrific brand name, terrific products, and excellent profit margins. When one of the most frequent statements in the country is "Let's meet at Starbucks," you know you have a good business.


Like many stocks, Starbucks isn't a bargain at today's levels. It's trading for more than 30 times earnings and 20 times its enterprise value to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio.

But it is a good reminder of the power of buying great businesses at great prices. These opportunities don't come along every day, but they're incredibly profitable. In particular, Brian noted the fantastic opportunity Starbucks investors had during the financial crisis. As Brian explained…
In a crisis, even good businesses can suffer huge share-price declines. That's what happened during the 2008 financial crisis. During the panic, Starbucks fell from $18 per share to less than $7 per share.


As you can see from the chart below, buying shares of Starbucks in November 2008 – when nobody else wanted to – would have quickly generated impressive returns. Seven months later, shares doubled… three years after buying, you would be up 500%… and today, you would be up nearly 1,500%.


 
 
  New 52-week highs (as of 5/29/15): eBay (EBAY).

  We received nearly 500 e-mails from subscribers offering their thoughts on whether insurance firm Markel (MKL) is cheap or expensive. Stay tuned for Porter's answer in tomorrow's Digest. In the meantime, if you haven't already, please send your answer tofeedback@stansberryresearch.com.

  "I am going with cheap. EV/EBITDA of around 10 seems to be a good deal. Large operating cash flow and large revenues to EV as well. Price to book also not overly expensive. Great exercise!" – Paid-up subscriber AG

  "These are guesses because I really don't know, but it seems cheap. It's priced at 1.36 times book value, has enough cash to pay off all its debt, and costs a little more than two times revenue. I was trying to figure out profit per share, because I think you don't want to pay more than 10x that number, but I wasn't sure if I got it right. 1470M profit / 14M outstanding shares is 105 times profit, which I believe would be expensive, but that doesn't seem like the correct calculation.

"Maybe market cap (which is value of all outstanding shares if I'm not mistaken) is the correct metric. 10.78B MC / 1.47B profit is only 7.3x profit, which would be cheap. For enterprise value (MC minus debt I believe) is 9.29B / 1.47B is still 6.3x, so still seems cheap. This email is just a brain dump as I look through the numbers. Curious if I'm even close." – Paid-up subscriber SA

  "Markel is an insurance business so the first thing I would look at to estimate its value is the ratio of its market value to float + book value. Market value/(float+book value) = 0.60. So at a share price of $773 you are buying Markel at a 40% discount or $0.60 for a dollar. This looks good, just slightly above the $0.50 to the dollar that Buffett would consider cheap enough to buy and about the average discount you would expect for an insurance business. So at first look I would say that MKL is fairly priced at $773." – Paid-up subscriber DA

  "Looking at Markel over the previous three years reveals a stock that has risen from about $430 per share to about $770. Earnings per share have risen from $17 to $26.33 yet it pays no dividend. Its P/E of 29 is about twice the average of its peers. So it is expensive. Fair market value would be in the $500 per share range." – Paid-up subscriber HW

Regards,

Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
June 1, 2015


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios)
As of 05/29/2015
 
Stock   Sym   Buy Date   Return   Publication   Editor
Ultra Health Care   RXL   03/17/11   459.0%   True Wealth   Sjuggerud
Constellation Brands   STZ   06/02/11   456.5%   Extreme Value   Ferris
Ultra Health Care   RXL   01/04/12   389.2%   True Wealth Sys   Sjuggerud
Altria   MO   11/19/08   275.4%   The 12% Letter   Dyson
Enterprise   EPD   10/15/08   271.6%   The 12% Letter   Dyson
Blackstone Group   BX   11/15/12   259.2%   True Wealth   Sjuggerud
Automatic Data Proc   ADP   10/09/08   222.1%   Extreme Value   Ferris
McDonald's   MCD   11/28/06   182.3%   The 12% Letter   Dyson
CVS Caremark   CVS   05/12/11   177.5%   Retirement Millionaire   Eifrig
ProShares Ultra Tech   ROM   03/17/11   172.3%   True Wealth   Sjuggerud
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

 
Top 10 Totals
3   True Wealth   Sjuggerud
2   Extreme Value   Ferris
1   True Wealth Sys   Sjuggerud
3   The 12% Letter   Dyson
1   Retirement Millionaire   Eifrig



Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios)
 
Investment   Sym   Holding Period   Gain   Publication   Editor
Seabridge Gold   SA   4 years, 73 days   995%   Sjug Conf.   Sjuggerud
Rite Aid 8.5% bond       4 years, 356 days   773%   True Income   Williams
ATAC Resources   ATC   313 days   597%   Phase 1   Badiali
JDS Uniphase   JDSU   1 year, 266 days   592%   SIA   Stansberry
Prestige Brands   PBH   5 years, 184 days   406%   Extreme Value   Ferris
Silver Wheaton   SLW   1 year, 185 days   345%   Resource Rpt   Badiali
Jinshan Gold Mines   JIN   290 days   339%   Resource Rpt   Badiali
Medis Tech   MDTL   4 years, 110 days   333%   Diligence   Ferris
ID Biomedical   IDBE   5 years, 38 days   331%   Diligence   Lashmet
Northern Dynasty   NAK   1 year, 343 days   322%   Resource Rpt   Badiali

[Boris]

Cuff, I picture you wearing a monocle and a smoking jacket sitting around a large round table puffing on a stogie reviewing potash stocks 

[cufflinks]

Cuff, I picture you wearing a monocle and a smoking jacket sitting around a large round table puffing on a stogie reviewing potash stocks 

LOL Tech stocks  for the pop and solid dividend stocks for the long haul ...  I am more of a boat shoes cargo shorts and solid color Black to pastels to white short sleeves v notch sides no tuck summer shirts guy... 

Except when I am fishing then it is LLBean anti bug anti tick long sleeves and long pants with canvas 360 rim around hat for both a bugnet and shade when fishing... of course pockets for big cigars to put up a smoke screen as well ;-)

[cdnexpat]

I am not too much in stocks. Here in the stans, banks are all government owned, and therefore pretty secure. We have decided a while back to share the investments between real estate, and guaranteed bank deposits. The real estate yields us about 10%, when rented out, which is not always the case. Banks, give 11% simple interest(not compounded), on dollar accounts, and 22% on local currency, which you can withdraw every month.  Also, no income tax on the revenues! That is sweeter than anything I have seen in the west.
And this is all legit, as the deposit are after taxes salaries, which have been invested here.

[Manny]

Banks, give 11% simple interest(not compounded), on dollar accounts, and 22% on local currency, which you can withdraw every month.  Also, no income tax on the revenues! That is sweeter than anything I have seen in the west.
And this is all legit, as the deposit are after taxes salaries, which have been invested here.

That is way better than anything we see in the EU.

[andrewfi]

Banks, give 11% simple interest(not compounded), on dollar accounts, and 22% on local currency, which you can withdraw every month.  Also, no income tax on the revenues! That is sweeter than anything I have seen in the west.
And this is all legit, as the deposit are after taxes salaries, which have been invested here.

That is way better than anything we see in the EU.

Remember the Russian government was offering amnesties for repatriated money a while back - the program is ongoing as I recall.
Well there's one of the benefits for you. Repatriate your dosh, no questions asked and get a risk free return of anything from 11 to 22% on the money - tax free.

That policy follows on from the 13% tax rate - when that was introduced its purpose was to encourage people to move out of the black. The government needed to increase the tax base because it was lack of tax revenues that was at the root of much corruption - not enough revenue to pay the bureaucrats and law keepers their wages and keep them (relatively) honest.

That system worked very well indeed.

Current interest rates make it such that repatriating money, even if revenue from that money then becomes taxable at some point in the future, is one of the best 'honest' deals around for investors.

[cdnexpat]

I was told that Iranian banks offer 17% on dollar accounts. I have not checked it out yet.

[andrewfi]

I was told that Iranian banks offer 17% on dollar accounts. I have not checked it out yet.

Conceptually it makes sense to do so - a high interest rate will tend to lead to an influx of dollars and then Iran can use those dollars in international trade.

Of course that is also the reason why countries are seeking an alternative to dollar hegemony. The US uses supply of the dollar as a weapon of war as they do with Iran and Russia right now.

[cufflinks]

Not looking to good for Canada or Russia - but for the USA and EU Small Biz sector lower energy prices equals higher profits...


Eric Fry, reporting live from the Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium...

In Thursday's edition of The Non-Dollar Report, Karim Rahemtulla advised readers to "position themselves for a commodity rebound." But in that same edition we also mentioned that "you can't just buy any commodity." That's why Karim targeted only the mining sector and suggested buying only "best of breed" companies in that particular sector.

Now comes today's contributor, Sean Brodrick, to suggest betting against a different sector of the commodity markets: oil and gas.

Sean's perspective may not complement Karim's perspective, but neither does it conflict. Crude oil is not gold. Natural gas is not palladium. Natural resource investors must be discriminating.

To that point, when Sean addressed the Sprott-Stansberry Natural Resource Symposium Thursday here in Vancouver, he encouraged the attendees to prepare for a "Golden Tsunami." Using that metaphor, Sean suggested that the gold price might recede a bit more... before surging much higher.

But, net-net, Sean is bullish on gold. Not so on oil. One month ago in a posting titled "A Race to the Bottom in the Oil Price War," Sean predicted oil prices would continue falling. He was dead right.

In that posting, Sean displayed the chart below and wrote, "There are forces afoot that could open a new front in the oil war, and send prices careening lower until someone cries 'Uncle!'"

Despite the fact that the crude oil price has dropped about $20 a barrel since then, Sean remains bearish on the energy sector.

"The bottom line is that there is a surplus of oil in the world," says Sean. As a result of this fact, along with the fact that a couple of key OPEC producers have "opened the taps," Sean predicts a dire future for OPEC... while not forgetting to suggest a way to profit.

OIL CHIC
by Sean Brodrick
 
I've told you about the bearish forces pushing oil prices lower. Those forces include rising U.S. production, rising Saudi production and a treaty with Iran. The treaty could lift restrictions on Iranian exports, flooding the world with even more oil.

This is all bad news for oil producers.

Now, I'm here to tell you that there is another bearish force rearing its head in the oil markets: OPEC's power is splintering apart.

That problem is surging Iraqi oil production. Take a look at this chart...

Iraq added a whopping 198,600 barrels per day (bpd) of oil production from May to June. It's now pumping more than 4 million bpd, according to what are called "secondary sources" relied on by the "OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report." This production surge is causing fissures in OPEC that will probably lead to its impotence as an economic force... and could even lead to its destruction.

For its own part, Iraq says its production is growing, but at a slower rate. Iraq says it pumped 416,000 bpd less in June than OPEC's "secondary sources" said it produced.

Why the difference? Iraq probably wants to avoid pressure from other OPEC members, like Venezuela, that would like to see quotas tightened to stop the inexorable downward pressure on prices.

But whatever the exact number may be, Iraqi production is ramping up significantly... and this production increase is contributing to lower crude prices.

In fact, JPMorgan analysts recently sent out a note, saying:


It is arguably additional supplies from Iraq that are pressuring world oil prices more than Iran at this juncture. Iraqi production has risen consistently over recent quarters, but surged ahead in 2Q2015 prompting us to conclude that Iraq will likely overtake Saudi Arabia as the biggest contributor to OPEC growth this year.

You would think that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia might be able to put pressure on Iraq to slow its production growth. Wrong. That's because there is only one member of OPEC that grew its production faster than Iraq from May to June.

And that's Saudi Arabia...

Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased to 10.6 million bpd in June - its highest level since records began. Saudi Arabia's goal is to pump 11 million bpd by the end of summer, or at least the end of this year.

OPEC Is Putting the Squeeze on... Um, OPEC

Since OPEC is pumping flat-out - and since U.S. oil producers have no incentive to slow down - this weight on oil prices remains quite heavy.

For all of OPEC, lower prices are a $200 billion-per-year kick where it hurts. In the wallet, that is. This "open all the taps" oil production strategy is dividing OPEC into winners and losers. And that's a division that could split the oil cartel asunder.

Is there any sign that OPEC might change course anytime soon? Nope. In fact, OPEC officials have repeatedly stated that the entire cartel - and non-OPEC players like Russia - would need to join and bear the burden of a cut, similar to what happened in 1986 and 1998.

Yeah, don't hold your breath. Vladimir Putin's Russia labors under its own sanctions after its land grab in Ukraine, and it needs every petrodollar it can lay its hands on. The sinking Russian ruble has made that country's oil production quite competitive, and so Russia will probably pump as fast as it can for as long as it can.

Two Ways You Can Play This

Well, you're already playing this trend. As a consumer, you profit when global oil prices go lower. But there are other ways you play this trend. I'll tell you about two of them.

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: SCO; Price: $83.45). This ETF aims to track double the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex. In other words, it's a double bet against crude oil. But remember, an ETF like this is not a "buy and hold" strategy. It's a short-term trading vehicle.

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DUG; Price: $60.63). This ETF is a double bet against oil and gas stocks. It aims to track twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index. This is an ETF you'd buy if you thought oil companies were going to have more downside. Sure, Exxon and Conoco are trading at 35-year valuation lows by some metrics. That doesn't mean they can't go lower.

Such trades are not for the faint of heart. But they're great ways to profit from what should be lower oil prices to come... and potentially even the death of OPEC.

All the best,

Sean Brodrick
For The Non-Dollar Report