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Author Topic: MH17 - update ?  (Read 22000 times)

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Offline Ste

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #30 on: September 09, 2014, 06:52:17 PM »
The pieces weren't all neat and round.  But, there was a good explanation of this in a post by an expert, elsewhere.

I heard an expert from the UK being interviewed on the news today.  He said that the plane was hit by shrapnel, not directly by a missile.  He also said that from the black box, the location of from where that missile was fired could be calculated within a few hundred meters and, that would prove which side fired it.

I'm not an expert, but I'm a WW2 Bomber geek and I know bullet/cannon holes from shrapnel holes and I'd stake my my life on the holes in question being normal shrapnel.

That's all I know for sure.
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Offline Lon

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #31 on: September 09, 2014, 07:14:05 PM »

I suppose, all though, most photos of bullet or cannon battle damaged aircraft I have seen are not nice round holes.  would a SU25, or another aircraft using a 30mm cannon, be using explosive shells?

Neat, round 30mm holes rule out a missile, however.

Offline TomT

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #32 on: September 09, 2014, 07:22:21 PM »
would a SU25, or another aircraft using a 30mm cannon, be using explosive shells?

Beats me. It isn't obligatory for the shells to be explosive or precisely 30mm, though.

Something that bothers me more than the technical details is if a country that has imposed sanctions on Russia can be trusted to conduct an impartial investigation.
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Offline Lon

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #33 on: September 09, 2014, 07:32:17 PM »
agreed

if a country that has imposed sanctions on Russia can be trusted to conduct an impartial investigation.


Offline Halo

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #34 on: September 09, 2014, 09:22:56 PM »
The pieces weren't all neat and round.  But, there was a good explanation of this in a post by an expert, elsewhere.

I heard an expert from the UK being interviewed on the news today.  He said that the plane was hit by shrapnel, not directly by a missile.  He also said that from the black box, the location of from where that missile was fired could be calculated within a few hundred meters and, that would prove which side fired it.

I'm not an expert, but I'm a WW2 Bomber geek and I know bullet/cannon holes from shrapnel holes and I'd stake my my life on the holes in question being normal shrapnel.

That's all I know for sure.

In some of the photos, it looked as if on some parts of the plane, rivets just popped out.  That is what was addressed.      Others did look like shrapnel (sharp and uneven).

Offline TrevorM

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #35 on: September 10, 2014, 02:48:20 AM »
Something that bothers me more than the technical details is if a country that has imposed sanctions on Russia can be trusted to conduct an impartial investigation.

Russia is representated in the investigation:-

Quote from: 23 July 2014
With the Dutch Safety Board now heading the investigation, the international investigation
team will have more freedom to go about its tasks unhindered. The Dutch Safety Board is
also responsible for coordinating all participating investigators and investigation teams from
the countries involved (Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, Germany, the United States, the United
Kingdom and Russia) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The
international team currently consists of 24 investigators. A total of four Dutch Safety Board
investigators are currently operating in Ukraine.

http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/fm/2014_07_23_PB_OVV_neemt_leiding_over_ENG_DEF.pdf

Offline MrMann

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #36 on: September 10, 2014, 03:47:15 AM »
I was about to post something similar Trevor.

The investigation was carried out according to the strict rules of the International Civil Aviation Organization, part of the UN, and involved experts from the Federal Air Transport Agency of Russia amongst others.

Quote from: Dutch Safety Board
The NBAAI commenced an investigation on the day of the occurrence. The investigation was delegated to the Dutch Safety Board on 23 July 2014. The investigation is ongoing and a final report will be published in due course. The Dutch Safety Board was assisted by experts from Australia (ATSB), France (BEA), Germany (BFU), Indonesia (NTSC), Italy (ANSV), Malaysia (DCA), the Russian Federation (Federal Air Transport Agency), Interstate Air Committee (IAC), Ukraine (NBAAI), the United Kingdom (AAIB), the United States of America (NTSB) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). In addition, several other countries offered their support to the Dutch Safety Board investigation team. At the time of their offer, no immediate support was needed, but their offer was much appreciated. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has advised the Dutch Safety Board in procedural matters to ensure full compliance with the standards and recommended practices set forth in Annex 13.

I'm not sure where the theories about MH17 being brought down by cannon fire originated from, other than "experts" seeing holes in the fuselage and concluding that they were caused by cannon fire. Lieutenant-General Kartopolov's media briefing a few days after the plane was brought down refers to an Su-25's ability to carry R-60 air-to-air missiles. But let's look at the facts anyway, as Andrew would say.

The Su-25 carries a Gryazev-Shipunov GSh-30-2 cannon with 250 rounds of 30x165mm ammunition that can be either armour-piercing or high explosive incendiary. From what I can gather this cannon has a maximum effective range of 2.5km for suppressive fire and 1.5km for a point target. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence the Su-25 was 3 to 5km from MH17.

The Russian Ministry of Defence claim that the Su-25 was tracking MH17, i.e. flying on a similar path to it. As you would expect given that they were so close to the Russian border and any Ukrainian military plane would have been travelling from west to east. Given that the majority of the initial damage seems to be to the front of MH17, and that the preliminary report concluded that it was the front which broke off first, it would seem that in order to hit the plane with cannon fire the Su-25 would have had to overtake MH17, turn around and return towards it. This is not indicated on the Russian Ministry of Defence's radar data, and indeed is highly unlikely given the speed at which MH17 was travelling.

In addition to this, the preliminary report is clear that the damage to the plane originated above the level of the cockpit floor and that as well as affecting the side of the plane further damage was seen on the roof of the cockpit. This means that the Su-25 would have to have been above the level of MH17 in order to fire its cannons down the way. Given the effects of gravity on cannon rounds over a 3 to 5km distance this means that the Su-25 would have to also have been considerably higher than MH17 which again is highly unlikely given that MH17 was flying above the maximum ceiling of an Su-25 quoted by Lieutenant-General Kartopolov, which itself is higher than that claimed in most other sources.

Therefore I would go as far as to say it was impossible for MH17 to have been shot down by cannon fire from an Su-25. Has this even been suggested by the Russian Ministry of Defence?

Turning our attention to the air to air missile theory, the R-60 is a lightweight missile designed for binging down fighter jets rather than larger targets. As such it has a pre-launch weight of 44kg (97 lb) with a small warhead weighing 3kg (6.6 lb). Compare that to the Buk Sa-11 which weighs 690kg (1521 lb) before launch carrying a warhead of 70kg (154 lb).

Interestingly an R-60 has been fired at a civilian plane before, so we have something to compare it to. In 1988 a BAe-125 in Angola was hit by an R-60 fired from a MiG-23. The missile knocked off one of the engines and the co-pilot made a successful emergency landing.



The R-60 is an infrared homing missile. If it was fired from below and behind MH17 as the Russian Ministry of Defence's radar data suggests then what is the likelihood that the missile would hit the upper part of the front of the plane?

Also, if the Russian Ministry of Defence is so convinced that MH17 was brought down by an Su-25 why did they also refer to Ukraine having a Buk system in the area during the media briefing? That to me sounds like a classic muddying of the waters tactic.

Offline TrevorM

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #37 on: September 10, 2014, 04:57:27 AM »
Nicely put MrMann.  :thumbsup:

Offline WestCoast

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #38 on: October 28, 2014, 10:08:15 AM »
The Dutch investigation of the downing of MH17 is advancing. The Russian government has stated in the past that they have evidence that an Ukrainian fighter jet shot down MH17. The Dutch prosecutors are preparing to ask the Russian government to provide the information that led to that conclusion.

Dutch prosecutor Fred Westerbeke has said "Based on the information available, a shooting-down by a ground-to-air missile is the most likely scenario, but we aren't closing our eyes to the possibility that it could have happened differently," Der Spiegel quoted him as saying.

"We are preparing a request to Moscow for information ... including the radar data with which the Russians wanted to prove that a Ukrainian military jet was nearby," he added.

In the days after the crash, the United States said it had evidence proving that the aircraft was brought down by a ground-to-air missile fired by Russian-backed forces occupying the area in eastern Ukraine where its wreckage now lies.

An interim report issued by the Dutch Safety Board, which investigates air crashes, listed several passenger jets in flight MH17's vicinity, but no military aircraft that would have been capable of shooting it down.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/mh17-prosecutor-open-theory-another-plane-shot-down-182620435--finance.html#bi9wIsU
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Offline Manny

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #39 on: July 25, 2015, 05:13:16 PM »
It also confirms that the only traffic in the vicinity of MH17 were three other commercial airliners, the closest of which was 30km away.

Nobody told the locals they were making it up I guess.........

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVdwUdlswOY" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVdwUdlswOY</a>

Quote
The BBC pulled this broadcast in total panic when they realised the evidence of the eye witnesses did not correspond to the narrative the US & their NATO allies wanted to convey, many witnesses verified there were 2 Ukraine SU25 very close to the downed MH17, their presence was also confirmed by Russian satellite images provided by their air ministry. The US has thus so far refused to disclose their satellite images

Evidently, the BBC deleted it as it did not meet "editorial guidelines". Truth doesn't when it contradicts the official line. The BBC were caught doing the same in Odessa.

BBC deleting facts again and having YouTube vids pulled? Dont tell Moby.  :-X

Now even US veterans are asking why their government wont tell what it knows: http://sputniknews.com/us/20150723/1024944058.html
please tell me where I'm being / have been 'dishonest'? 
Yes, he said that.........

Online msmoby

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2015, 10:51:59 PM »

BBC deleting facts again and having YouTube vids pulled? Dont tell Moby.  :-X

Now even US veterans are asking why their government wont tell what it knows: http://sputniknews.com/us/20150723/1024944058.html

As we get near August 10 we will see all sorts of muddying the waters by the Kremlin troll factory



The article was from Wednesday, 30 July 2014 13:18

http://www.truth-out.org/speakout/item/25277-obama-should-release-ukraine-evidence

Since then we've had the Kremlin suggest

1/ it wasn't SU-25s - it was on July 21st

2/ It might have been a BUK system fired the rocket, but the missile was of a type not used by Russian forces - type stated

3/ NOW, it was an Israeli rocket ....

Manny you really  must check your sources' 'sources'to save embarrassment



Online andrewfi

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #41 on: July 27, 2015, 05:59:50 AM »
Alfy, you are at it again.

Because you have read this stuff, or at least claim to have done, you already know that it was NOT the Kremlin that suggested a BUK missile was used but not one of theirs. The claim has been made that IF a BUK was used it was not a Russian one but the claim was made by the manufacturers of the BUK system.

The claim that an Israeli missile may have been used was, again, not made by the Kremlin but by a group of aviation experts.

The nearest to the 'Kremlin' would be the Russian military who, as you know, made a show and tell of some of their data that demonstrated that 2 planes, presumed to be SU-25s were in the region and that there was increased activity from Ukrainian BUK based radar. To the best of my knowledge that position, held by the military, has not altered.

Why do you continually try to deceive your readers?
Do you assume that you are the brightest bloke in the room and that we all fall over ourselves to believe your purposeful misleading?
Or do you simply understand much less than you think you do of that which you read, hear or see?
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Online Wiz

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #42 on: July 27, 2015, 09:33:14 AM »
No Wiz, I don't laugh, it isn't very funny.

Sorry Andrew, I find their parroting very funny because exposes the very low standard and knowledge of international affairs and know ASAP what is coming next.

Despite that, I have no intention to get involved in any arguments or debate with persons that throwing personal insults, which for me is a red flag. I simply ignore them and it is to the moderator to keep them in order. My view is, when debating a subject you do not attack the person but you dispute, if you disagree their comments.

Of course I agree with your other comments and May I remind you the case of Flight MH17?

A year passed now and no credible evidence came forward from the US for that crime,  where the Russian side has, at least have offered a lot of evidence.

With so many satellites and other sources at their disposal, you would have thought that the American’s would produce something credible but seems now this subject is gone quiet in their part.

Makes you wonder, if they have something to hide and I hope one day we will find the truth.


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Online AvHdB

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #43 on: July 27, 2015, 10:02:07 AM »
Of course I agree with your other comments and May I remind you the case of Flight MH17?

A year passed now and no credible evidence came forward from the US for that crime,  where the Russian side has, at least have offered a lot of evidence.

With so many satellites and other sources at their disposal, you would have thought that the American’s would produce something credible but seems now this subject is gone quiet in their part.

Wizar, You give way to much credit to America and its surveillance. But in fact the evidence coming from the Kremlin has changed on a rather daily basis from the time of the incident. The Dutch and Australians are heading the investigation, with input from Russia and other countries.

What gives me a chuckle is seeing over time Andrew doing the Texan Two Step.

I must say I was raised not to ignore those around you, it is rude. But you remind me a New York taxi driver, the rules of the road apply to everyone except him.

What is amusing in numerous posts Andrew moans about those who copy and post articles. he has a valid point. But I think it is safe to assume you are the new master of this genre.
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Online andrewfi

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Re: MH17 - update ?
« Reply #44 on: July 27, 2015, 10:41:37 AM »
AvHdB, sadly you are, as often the case, wrong.

The 'Kremlin' by which I infer you mean the official viewpoint has not changed. I explained that for moby's benefit a few hours ago so I will not trouble you with rewriting that which you can read for yourself.

If you know different I am, as always, ready to learn. Can you share with us any press releases or statements from the Russian government that would reflect a change in the viewpoint from the military show and tell a few days after the incident?
For your recollection, that was that there was one or more military aircraft in the vicinity of mh17 and that Ukrainian BUK tracking radar had shown a peak in activity at the time of the shooting down of the plane.

Can you add to our knowledge here?

"For what else is the life of man but a kind of play in which men in various costumes perform until the director motions them offstage?" -Erasmus