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Author Topic: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions  (Read 14592 times)

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Offline Halo

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2014, 12:00:17 PM »
Sometimes, Bill, you have to do the right thing.

The fact that most of the EU has imposed sanctions as well, and that Merkel is on board, should tell you something.

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2014, 12:01:29 PM »
Quote from: www.telegraaf.nl

Chief Economist of the Dutch Bank "Rabobank" (Wim Boonstra) said that the coming sanctions will impact Europe much harder than anticipated.

He said that even though it might seem like a small impact of only 3% of the vegetable/fruit market, it could lead to a snowball costing thousands of argi-cultural companies like self-employed farmers bankrupcy. The middle-sized fruit markets might also suffer strongly as pricing is expected to make even sharper drops than already seen.

These bankrupcies will enlarge the snowball even further as they will start to claim welfare which will cost European countries big money to supply.

Wim Boonstra further noted that he is surprised that Putin took such direct action instead of guiding it through the national food safety boards to not hurt economies on a longer timeline.

Boonstra is no unknown name, he is usually right.
(see: https://economics.rabobank.com/authors/wim-boonstra/)
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Online 2tallbill

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2014, 12:16:31 PM »
Sometimes, Bill, you have to do the right thing.

The fact that most of the EU has imposed sanctions as well, and that Merkel is on board, should tell you something.

I agree, however if they had deployed Patriot missiles in Poland and a multitude
of other things that the Obama/Clinton gave up to reset Russian relations we
could have made various deals with them and other chips that we gave up for
nothing.

If the Obama administration had not declared war on the oil industry then the
price of oil might not be nearly as high and Putin wouldn't be expanding the
borders. It costs billions of dollars to do what Putin is doing.

These sanctions won't hurt Russia much, if at all. Neville Chamberlain/Jimmy
Carter all over again.
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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #28 on: August 07, 2014, 12:18:55 PM »
I have no doubt Russia, can buy from other markets, but do you really think
all these countries you mention have such a surplus?
Supply and demand, means doing this as quick as they have,
they will pay premium prices, so yes it will affect the average Russian.
As for Canada, 650 million would affect these season only.

The reason any country buys from where they do is because of quality, price and agreements made.
It takes years to build these relationships, all sanctions hurt any country involved.
Looks like to Russia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine is worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
There is nothing permanent except change.

Offline WestCoast

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2014, 12:39:27 PM »
What is 'red poison in plastic bottles made in USA'?

I would think Coke.

Westy, use your noodle. Putin wouldn't apply those sanctions if it made Russia short of food. I am sure they have supply covered from more friendly nations who don't seek to poke their nose into Russia's business.

There will be farmers out there someplace rubbing their hands at the prospect of all the new orders.

Manny you just can't plant $17 billion worth of extra fruit and veggies now for sale to Russia at the end of the growing season. We'll see over the coming year. Will the shelves be empty of fruits and veggies or will there be lots?
Ipsa scientia potestas est. Knowledge itself is power.   Sir Francis Bacon

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2014, 12:52:21 PM »

Manny you just can't plant $17 billion worth of extra fruit and veggies now for sale to Russia at the end of the growing season. We'll see over the coming year. Will the shelves be empty of fruits and veggies or will there be lots?

As 70% of fruits and veggies is home-grown in Russia, I doubt any shelves shall be empty. The variety might get less though, only home-made milk instead of Dutch imports, only home-made wine instead of French/Spanish, only home-grown olives instead of Greece's etc. etc. etc.
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Offline sashathecat

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #31 on: August 07, 2014, 01:08:41 PM »
Having never visited Russia I am curious on the quality, price, and variety of foods in supermarkets there to begin with. Having gone shopping in Ukraine wile visiting I can say there was certainly much to be desired in comparison to our Western stores. The quality of seafood and meats was severely lacking as was the produce.

Offline Halo

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #32 on: August 07, 2014, 01:11:53 PM »
Russia doesn't produce olives, AFAIK. 

sasha, I disagree.  Summer produce in Ukraine is phenomenal, as is seafood, at least, that's the case in Kyiv.  But, you have to know your vendors.

Offline sashathecat

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #33 on: August 07, 2014, 01:22:50 PM »
sasha, I disagree.  Summer produce in Ukraine is phenomenal, as is seafood, at least, that's the case in Kyiv.  But, you have to know your vendors.

For temperate climate fruits I agree and everyone has fruit trees in their backyards. Grapes, peaches, etc are in abundance from what I observed. Seafood was very limited and of poor quality unless you like to eat bait fish. But I am lucky and spoiled in this regard. I did not notice any tropical fruits other than maybe bananas. Quality beef was not something I found except for a high end steakhouse in Kiev. My wife says you can get almost anything of course but some items are very expensive or difficult to find for most.

Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #35 on: August 07, 2014, 01:28:00 PM »
Russia doesn't produce olives, AFAIK. 

sasha, I disagree.  Summer produce in Ukraine is phenomenal, as is seafood, at least, that's the case in Kyiv.  But, you have to know your vendors.

Crimea does, so if Russia can use its produce, they have olives.
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Offline Manny

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #36 on: August 07, 2014, 01:57:04 PM »
As 70% of fruits and veggies is home-grown in Russia, I doubt any shelves shall be empty. The variety might get less though, only home-made milk instead of Dutch imports, only home-made wine instead of French/Spanish, only home-grown olives instead of Greece's etc. etc. etc.

Although, being Russia, I'd bet that anyone who wants to, will still have a lump of Edam in his sandwich and a bottle of Sancerre to wash it down. It wont hurt the market on the top end of stuff people like to have so much. People will grey import foodstuffs they like.

I am not sure what countries feed the American grocery market, or even if stuff is labelled for origin there, but we see a wide variety of sources for fruit here, most of it non EU (Israel, Egypt, Africa etc). As for veg, we see also a wide variety of sources, many of those EU, but a lot of that is logistics. Its cheaper to bring from closer (Poland to the UK for example). Russia has the Stans and China on its doorstep. It will also offer a boost to Russia's agriculture industry. If the idea catches on, farms will expand, farmers will invest as imported competition will be removed.

Producers will be beating the door down to supply Russia with food. Growers in China, Israel, Egypt, Brazil and many other places will be raising a glass to Obama and the EU this week, while browsing the Mercedes catalogue.

Putin isn't dumb. He doesn't do knee-jerk reactions. There will have been a viability study on this months before it was implemented.

Having never visited Russia I am curious on the quality, price, and variety of foods in supermarkets there to begin with.

The ones I have been in the last few years are just like anywhere. No bread queues any more.  :)

Having gone shopping in Ukraine wile visiting I can say there was certainly much to be desired in comparison to our Western stores. The quality of seafood and meats was severely lacking as was the produce.

Good steak always seems to be a challenge in Russia, but they are not big beef eaters. Much of the stuff I have eaten at the dacha for example (and the dacha feeds many families - a major difference to the west) tasted like it did when I was a kid. Veg is great! Honey, pork, eggs, etc., much of it is local.

I don't think this will have much of an impact on Russia or they wouldn't have done it. It will have an impact on companies/employers who export to Russia; who should then rightly challenge their elected representatives as to why they support American policies that end up damaging the local economy. 

Sanctions on Russia will not last in the EU. Once Polish farmers end up with potato mountains and people out of work, they will soon wonder who their friends are. And London and Germany likes Russian money too much for this to be any more than a token gesture. Once one country folds, the rest will follow like a pack of cards.

Offline sashathecat

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #37 on: August 07, 2014, 02:17:25 PM »
I am not sure what countries feed the American grocery market, or even if stuff is labelled for origin there, but we see a wide variety of sources for fruit here, most of it non EU (Israel, Egypt, Africa etc). As for veg, we see also a wide variety of sources, many of those EU, but a lot of that is logistics.

Producers will be beating the door down to supply Russia with food. Growers in China, Israel, Egypt, Brazil and many other places will be raising a glass to Obama and the EU this week, while browsing the Mercedes catalogue.

The ones I have been in the last few years are just like anywhere. No bread queues any more.  :)

Much of the stuff I have eaten at the dacha for example (and the dacha feeds many families - a major difference to the west) tasted like it did when I was a kid. Veg is great! Honey, pork, eggs, etc., much of it is local.

Food here in the US is labeled by country of origin. Much of it is produced here, in Mexico, or South America. Comes down to logistics as you mention. We do have food products from China as well but I avoid those like the plague.

I did not run into any Whole Foods or Publix types stores while in Ukraine though. Maybe there is something similar in the larger cities and I just missed them?

I agree that certain food items certainly tasted better in the FSU and select countries standing off to the side will greatly benefit from these sanctions.


Offline Manny

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #38 on: August 07, 2014, 02:53:12 PM »
Food here in the US is labeled by country of origin. Much of it is produced here, in Mexico, or South America. Comes down to logistics as you mention. We do have food products from China as well but I avoid those like the plague.

Yes, I guess you guys have a great food larder south of the border. In that way, reverse food sanctions will have no impact on the US, but it will to producers in the EU. Its easy for us to scoff and say it has little impact and churn some numbers, but there are blokes out there for whom, for example, gherkins pay the mortgage and put their kids through school. And employ a bunch of people. If their main customer happens to be a Russian supermarket chain, well, thats some folks on welfare from next week.

They cant blame Putin, as he is only retaliating. The blame lies with the guy clamouring for sanctions first. A bloke who is cozily across the ocean with South America supplying his groceries. People will notice that.

I did not run into any Whole Foods or Publix types stores while in Ukraine though. Maybe there is something similar in the larger cities and I just missed them?

I am not familiar with those stores, but I found in Russia was all I couldn't buy was stuff there was no local demand for. Cultural and regional tastes dictate a lot of foodstuffs on the shelves. Try and buy a bottle of decent Chilli sauce in Russia, or some green chillies, or some curry sauce. Good luck with that as there is no demand.

But they are quite entrepreneurial there. Anything there is a demand for, and some Ivan will find a way to get it on the shelves. Sanctions or not.

I agree that certain food items certainly tasted better in the FSU and select countries standing off to the side will greatly benefit from these sanctions.

In some ways its a shrewd move by Putin. It gives Russia the opportunity to immediately expand trade with countries that were maybe indifferent or lukewarm about Russia. Show them the money, offer them exports and suddenly Russia has another friend. Money talks.

The US has this long-standing trade thing with Cuba. But I bet anybody in America that smokes cigars knows where he can buy nice Cuban ones.

Poland does nice butter, I bet Ivans are on phones as we speak arranging shipments of Maslo into Russia via Albania or Turkey. Grey market guys in Russia will make some money out of this.

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #39 on: August 07, 2014, 05:15:05 PM »
the impact will be felt by both sides in the short term. according to article upthread,
Russia imports 30% of most food products, you don't make that up in one growing season,
without a sharp increase in price, same as the sellers will now have extra crops, so prices could go down in
other markets they supply. over time all will adjust as they have for years.
Regardless of how you do the math it is still supply and demand. If Russia wants it, then others will sell to them instead of traditional markets if they pay more for it. So for the reminder of this season, they will pay more or face shortages.
There is nothing permanent except change.

Offline Manny

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #40 on: August 07, 2014, 05:22:09 PM »
If Russia wants it, then others will sell to them instead of traditional markets if they pay more for it. So for the reminder of this season, they will pay more or face shortages.

Maybe not. If there is a glut of supply then the free market will drive prices down. Which will help Russia's food inflation.

I am just bouncing ideas; I am not in agriculture. I might be wrong. But I bet I am not wrong that Putin Inc thought about this and it isn't knee-jerk.

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #41 on: August 07, 2014, 05:25:23 PM »
If Russia wants it, then others will sell to them instead of traditional markets if they pay more for it. So for the reminder of this season, they will pay more or face shortages.

Maybe not. If there is a glut of supply then the free market will drive prices down. Which will help Russia's food inflation.

I am just bouncing ideas; I am not in agriculture. I might be wrong. But I bet I am not wrong that Putin Inc thought about this and it isn't knee-jerk.
Your correct in a normal market scenario, But they now will be looking at other countries for these products.
It will limit where & who they buy from. These suppliers already have markets and X amount of product.
Again if Russia is willing to pay more and sign long term deals they will get what they want & need, but for this year, it will cost more. The places that will have the Glut, is markets they now will not buy from.
could lower your prices this year :)

Regardless, this affects the average Russian person, not the well off. What they do have will cost more, at least in the short term.
There is nothing permanent except change.

Offline Mikeav8r

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2014, 05:57:42 PM »
If Russia wants it, then others will sell to them instead of traditional markets if they pay more for it. So for the reminder of this season, they will pay more or face shortages.

Maybe not. If there is a glut of supply then the free market will drive prices down. Which will help Russia's food inflation.

I am just bouncing ideas; I am not in agriculture. I might be wrong. But I bet I am not wrong that Putin Inc thought about this and it isn't knee-jerk.
Your correct in a normal market scenario, But they now will be looking at other countries for these products.
It will limit where & who they buy from. These suppliers already have markets and X amount of product.
Again if Russia is willing to pay more and sign long term deals they will get what they want & need, but for this year, it will cost more. The places that will have the Glut, is markets they now will not buy from.
could lower your prices this year :)

Regardless, this affects the average Russian person, not the well off. What they do have will cost more, at least in the short term.

I wouldn't mind seeing it drop our prices as they are ridiculously high as it is.  If having an overabundance of chickens, fruits and vegetables means more for us and lower prices...I thank Mr. Putin  tiphat
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Offline sashathecat

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #43 on: August 07, 2014, 06:24:28 PM »
I would think the average Russian consumer will be the one most affected. Some products like oranges can be sourced from many locations. Turkey or Uruguay versus Florida as an example. Certain foods such as macadamia nuts are near impossible to source from alternate locations. They can be imported indirectly for a premium I suppose.

I doubt it impacts the US very much at all. Like Mike says, I would not mind paying a little less for my ribeye steaks. Farmers in Europe will hurt the most while millionaires are being made right now in other parts of the world.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2N0QD0T720140808



Offline Annushka

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #44 on: August 07, 2014, 09:04:10 PM »
In Russia, this year's rich harvest of grain. These vegetables are already available to the south of Russia.  :chuckle:






No GMO.  ;D :thumbsup:

Offline redroo

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #45 on: August 07, 2014, 09:24:05 PM »
Too right Anya,
no comparison between gm tomato's etc and the ones  grown in FSU locally.
The berries also are like a different fruit altogether
 :loving:

Offline Annushka

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #46 on: August 07, 2014, 09:46:57 PM »
Too right Anya,
no comparison between gm tomato's etc and the ones  grown in FSU locally.
The berries also are like a different fruit altogether
 :loving:

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Offline sashathecat

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #47 on: August 07, 2014, 09:48:39 PM »
No GMO.  ;D :thumbsup:

I hate to be the one to bring this up as it will probably cause a deluge of arguments but all the fruit and vegetables you posted are without a doubt genetically modified. All the produce mankind eats is currently "genetically modified" except for possibly wild mushrooms or berries from the forest. There is no conclusive evidence to date proving GMO's are harmful to man.




Offline Net_Lenka

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2014, 09:53:10 PM »
Russia doesn't produce olives, AFAIK. 

sasha, I disagree.  Summer produce in Ukraine is phenomenal, as is seafood, at least, that's the case in Kyiv.  But, you have to know your vendors.
Russia would not die without olives and can easely buy them whenever it wish
- А Вы кто такой будете?
-Тьфу на Вас
-А фамилия Ваша как?  -Тьфу на Вас еще раз .. а фамилия моя слишком известная, чтобы я её называл

Offline Halo

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Re: Putin orders retaliatory sanctions
« Reply #49 on: August 07, 2014, 10:05:07 PM »
I don't recall saying it would die without olives.  That would be pretty stupid. 

I was commenting on the post preceding mine, which referred specifically, to olives.


 

 

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