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Author Topic: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)  (Read 7299 times)

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Offline bigdaddy71978

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an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« on: January 02, 2014, 06:24:13 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renewed-interest-russia-could-pop-110806453.html 
Not sure if I would invest or not (mainly because the only investment advise I got is a 2008 book by John "Bradshaw" Layfield of WWE, but he is a self made multi-millionaire!)

Offline shakespear

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2014, 09:06:17 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renewed-interest-russia-could-pop-110806453.html 
Not sure if I would invest or not (mainly because the only investment advise I got is a 2008 book by John "Bradshaw" Layfield of WWE, but he is a self made multi-millionaire!)

Any adequately diversified investment portfolio should have some money directed towards emerging markets.  Investments in Russian stocks would certainly qualify in this catergory.

Personally I think the article author is using flawed reasoning for his advice.  The Olympics are a short term event.  Stocks are long term investments.  One should never make long term investments based on short term news.

I've been invested in Russian equities via mutual funds since 1997.  It makes up about 2.5% of my investment portfolio, about the same allocation I have for gold.

I would encourage everyone to have some exposure to Russia equities in their total investment portfolio. The value of their countries unharvested natural resources alone is reason enough to hold this opinion.  Use a good mutual fund that tracks one of the Russian Equity Indexes rather than trying to pick individual Russian stocks or ADR's.  The fund recommended by the author is a good one.  I use LETRX myself.   
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Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2014, 02:49:26 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renewed-interest-russia-could-pop-110806453.html 
Not sure if I would invest or not (mainly because the only investment advise I got is a 2008 book by John "Bradshaw" Layfield of WWE, but he is a self made multi-millionaire!)

Any adequately diversified investment portfolio should have some money directed towards emerging markets.  Investments in Russian stocks would certainly qualify in this catergory.

Personally I think the article author is using flawed reasoning for his advice.  The Olympics are a short term event.  Stocks are long term investments.  One should never make long term investments based on short term news.

I've been invested in Russian equities via mutual funds since 1997.  It makes up about 2.5% of my investment portfolio, about the same allocation I have for gold.

I would encourage everyone to have some exposure to Russia equities in their total investment portfolio. The value of their countries unharvested natural resources alone is reason enough to hold this opinion.  Use a good mutual fund that tracks one of the Russian Equity Indexes rather than trying to pick individual Russian stocks or ADR's.  The fund recommended by the author is a good one.  I use LETRX myself.   

Really bad advice there Shakes, you shouldn't be advising anyone to do anything investment wise, perhaps with your financial position it sits well, but you are very high risk. The point about the small % of investment is good, but I'm guessing your total investment isn't the norm.

Anyone who wants to dabble here and there with a small investment fair enough, as long as you can afford to loose the lot, but if it's your life savings then that really isn't the way forward.

Get some proper advice from a local firm who know what they are doing, or read up and take an educated gamble, as long as you know what the risks are, otherwise what Shakes is saying is quite simply for the more educated or higher risk investor.

I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're gonna feel all day - Frank Sinatra


Offline shakespear

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2014, 01:33:31 PM »
Really bad advice there Shakes, you shouldn't be advising anyone to do anything investment wise, perhaps with your financial position it sits well, but you are very high risk. The point about the small % of investment is good, but I'm guessing your total investment isn't the norm.

Anyone who wants to dabble here and there with a small investment fair enough, as long as you can afford to loose the lot, but if it's your life savings then that really isn't the way forward.

Get some proper advice from a local firm who know what they are doing, or read up and take an educated gamble, as long as you know what the risks are, otherwise what Shakes is saying is quite simply for the more educated or higher risk investor.

ashbyclarke as usual, poor reading comprehension coupled with opening mouth without knowing what he's talking about.

When I worked for The Ohio Company and Merrill Lynch, I had a Series 7 securities license and held a CFP designation.  Therefore I CERTAINLY DO  have the qualifications to provide general investment advice. 

Where did I suggest anyone invest their life savings in emerging markets stocks?  My comment emphasized the importance of diversification within a portfolio.  A small allocation in emerging markest adds to that desired diversification. 

No qualified investment adviser would label 2.5% of a total portfolio value invested in emerging market stocks or mutual funds as overly risky, especially if it is held in a long-term investment vehicle like an IRA or 401k plan.  A 2.5% holding has the same percentage impact on portfolio performance whether your portfolio is $10,000 or $10 million.

Somebody is giving bad advice here but I don't think it is me.   :laugh:       
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Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2014, 02:03:42 PM »
ashbyclarke as usual, poor reading comprehension coupled with opening mouth without knowing what he's talking about.

20 years in the business, advanced financial planning qualifications and worked heavily in trust and investment business for people far richer than yourself. Yes I know a thing or two.

When I worked for The Ohio Company and Merrill Lynch, I had a Series 7 securities license and held a CFP designation.  Therefore I CERTAINLY DO  have the qualifications to provide general investment advice. 

You might be qualified but you certainly aren't authorised, and I seriously doubt you're up to date on recent regulatory changes. Unless there's no regulator in the US, I doubt that though.

So no you don't have the right to give advice to anyone.

Also Merrill Lynch is hardly for the normal investor, more for the high net worth client, I can't imagine that you ever sat down with a client who'd got life savings of $10 or $50k, Merrill Lynch just aren't interested in that type of client.


Where did I suggest anyone invest their life savings in emerging markets stocks?  My comment emphasized the importance of diversification within a portfolio.  A small allocation in emerging markest adds to that desired diversification.         

It's very high risk, period. Russia in your own words is corrupt and business only operates with bribes, that would say to me that Japan is a less risky option, and as I'm sure you know from your time in the industry Japan was only for those who had a very long term view and already had high risk local investments.

Besides there's a currency issues in addition, not to mention other factors which I'm sure you are aware.


No qualified investment adviser would label 2.5% of a total portfolio value invested in emerging market stocks or mutual funds as overly risky, especially if it is held in a long-term investment vehicle like an IRA or 401k plan.  A 2.5% holding has the same percentage impact on portfolio performance whether your portfolio is $10,000 or $10 million.
   

On a $10k life time savings investment then yes the risk is completely different, your inability to understand the risk associated with someones lifetime savings is what I was pointing out, someone with $100k is a completely different risk category to a someone with a lower life savings. Generally because of earnings, surely you read about that?

Somebody is giving bad advice here but I don't think it is me.   :laugh:       

I'd disagree  :laugh:
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Offline shakespear

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2014, 02:38:21 PM »
It's very high risk, period. Russia in your own words is corrupt and business only operates with bribes, that would say to me that Japan is a less risky option, and as I'm sure you know from your time in the industry Japan was only for those who had a very long term view and already had high risk local investments.   

{sigh}  Japan is not classified as an "emerging market".

Besides there's a currency issues in addition, not to mention other factors which I'm sure you are aware.

{sigh}  Investing in Japanese stocks don't involve "currency issues"?

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Offline Turboguy

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2014, 02:43:19 PM »
I will take the middle road here.   Personally I don't see anything wrong with the suggestion to have a small part (such as 2 or 3% of someones portfolios in emerging markets.   Personally I would not go out of my way to invest in Russia or China.   Russia because of the corruption and China because of the bookkeeping standards.  I will agree that Sochi is a non event when it comes to the stock market.  It will come and go with little impact on stocks. 

Now to flip over to the other side, having a CFP designation only means you have been trained to understand the various investment types and to be able to present them to customers.  It has little to do with the ability to pick stocks such as someone who was a stock analyst.  That being said even most of the pro's seem to lag the market in total return so even that doesn't mean much.  Flipping back the comments and suggestions you made seem quite good.  Diversification is one of the important factors in investing.  I will agree with Ashby however that for someone with a small portfolio emerging markets may not be a good choice. 

There are a lot of forums for stock market investing and it is a topic that is sometimes discussed on other forums.  Anyone has a right to share their ideas about investing and the readers are smart to make up their own mind about who to listen to.  Even some of the articles that come out of professional sources is biased and off.  I often see a day where there are 4 articles on a stock, two saying it is the best thing to invest in and two that say it is terrible and sell at once.   

Japan for the past decade or so has not been a good place to invest and yes as commented it is not an emerging market but if someone is interested in Japan they do seem like they are getting their act together there and those stocks may (or may not) be a good investment over the next few years. 

Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2014, 02:55:06 PM »
It's very high risk, period. Russia in your own words is corrupt and business only operates with bribes, that would say to me that Japan is a less risky option, and as I'm sure you know from your time in the industry Japan was only for those who had a very long term view and already had high risk local investments.   

{sigh}  Japan is not classified as an "emerging market".

Besides there's a currency issues in addition, not to mention other factors which I'm sure you are aware.

{sigh}  Investing in Japanese stocks don't involve "currency issues"?

Shakes, you didn't learn very much did you! You can put your text book away, I remember it all like a mother remembers giving child birth.

I was giving an example of risk, not specific to any investment category.

Do you think these Russia shares are dealt in $$$?? Ever noticed a fund go down in value when the stocks have risen? *sigh*  :laugh:

Japan for the past decade or so has not been a good place to invest and yes as commented it is not an emerging market but if someone is interested in Japan they do seem like they are getting their act together there and those stocks may (or may not) be a good investment over the next few years. 

It's looking rosy for the short term, Japan has been for a long time now a stock you hold for the short term, in when low out near the peak, I can't see that changing either. That is of course if you know what you're doing.

Personally I invest on the FTSE, I don't have a substantial portfolio so I tend to stick to what I can read about locally, and get a feeling on how it's doing by seeing it on the high street or similar.

I'm sure that's what Shakes is saying in reality, I was pointing out that the majority reading here don't have the insight or portfolio value of what Shakes seems to think is the norm.
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're gonna feel all day - Frank Sinatra

Offline Manny

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2014, 02:58:27 PM »
I stuck €10k into a Swedbank Russian fund about three years ago. A two year fund.

It was an interesting fund that you could choose the risk profile. I chose the lowest where the bank guarantees your original deposit if the fund loses money, but you share 50% of the profits with them if the fund makes money. That [zero risk to capital] seemed fair so I bailed in.

The firms didn't look terribly risky so I was optimistic of profit. I wasn't terribly bothered if it made nothing as interest rates were not much higher. Certainly not in Dollars or Euros (it is a multi-currency account).

As with these fixed term funds, the inherent risk is that if some sector is unpopular the week it finishes, and the stock is down, the fund loses profit. Russian sectors have been up and down and as it went my fund made a small loss, due to I think the oil sector being down due to the BP spill in the US. But the bank returned by original investment so no harm done.

The nature of that beast is had the fund finished a month later, a given sector might have been up and it can finish in profit.

My minimal amount of Royal Mail shares did a bit better. Swings in roundabouts.

I would do another similar fund if I had spare money sitting in a currency I don't need short term. I don't recall seeing anything similar with English banks. I avoid US listed shares now due to all that BS W1/W2 paperwork and the Dollar unstable currency fluctuation that can wipe out the profit. I used to buy Disney and other US stocks once upon a time but the dollar volatility often times wiped out the profits. The double risk when investing in £ Sterling: The stock may have gained 25%, but if the dollar has fell 30% you lose.

Anyone know a good UK execute only online trader? I used to use Sharepeople way back when. Hargreaves Lansdowne looked dear and Hoodless Brennan looked a bit shady when I last looked. Who is everyone using now?
please tell me where I'm being / have been 'dishonest'? 
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Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2014, 03:16:48 PM »
Manny - if you don't mind high risk investments take a look at Lloyds bank.

The government has a bundle of share to offload at a profit, that's around 80p now, take into account it's paying no dividend right now so no income trackers are placing money in it, that's about to change.

I've been in since 60-75p, as the government sold at 75p it's unlikely that it'll drop below that.

It is however very high risk, worth a punt though IMO, I imagine the price might drop to closer to 80p than it currently is, it's due to announce profits in Feb, and if you've seen it's website it's pretty impressive and offers credit based on income and expenditure, perhaps part the reason for the boom in car sales, can't be a bad thing for it's bottom line to be announced.

I'm not making a recommendation here, just saying what I am doing right now.
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Offline shakespear

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2014, 03:27:06 PM »
I stuck €10k into a Swedbank Russian fund about three years ago. A two year fund.
As with these fixed term funds, the inherent risk is that if some sector is unpopular this week and the stock is down, the fund loses profit. Russian sectors have been up and down and as it went my fund made a small loss. But the bank returned by original investment.   

Exactly!

Two years his a very short investment period for equities.  I'd recommend holding periods of at least 5 years or longer for most equity investments. 

The Russian equity market has been pretty flat for the past 2-3 years.

I've been in LETRX continually since the market lows in 1998.  My first investments were at $2.40 per share.  There have been years when it returned +60%.  Long term it has returned about 20% per year on average.  Not bad. 

By diversifying your portfolio of investments.  You'll be sure that you don't miss specific sub-market "up move" when it happens. 
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Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2014, 03:38:37 PM »
I stuck €10k into a Swedbank Russian fund about three years ago. A two year fund.
As with these fixed term funds, the inherent risk is that if some sector is unpopular this week and the stock is down, the fund loses profit. Russian sectors have been up and down and as it went my fund made a small loss. But the bank returned by original investment.   

Exactly!

Two years his a very short investment period for equities.  I'd recommend holding periods of at least 5 years or longer for most equity investments. 


You really shouldn't recommend Shakes!!! I am playing with you here BTW  :laugh:

But I'll add - what Manny invested in isn't a direct equity investment, it had guarantees, very low risk.

Just for the record, equity investments for someone who doesn't trade them, should be held for a minimum of 10 years, a 5 year investment period would classify a Equity stock as very high risk.

Told you I remember those text books very well, might have been involved with writing a few, it's like a nightmare remembering it all   :laugh:
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Offline Manny

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2014, 04:03:53 PM »
I've still got my grans BT shares from original float. Structure changes happened along the way but I still own something in something, be it MM02 or o2 or whatever those shares morphed into today. I remember seeing a £200 cheque due to some restructure a year or two ago. I don't think her original investment was much more........

I bought some Stagecoach in the 90's one day when £500 was burning a hole in my pocket and they were at about 80p. They were pence then and pounds now. I elected dividends in new shares. So I get periodical certificates telling me I have X new shares. That'll be a few grand one day. I just keep getting more free shares!

I once tossed £10k into Sharepeople and self traded for a few months. Thinking I was Gordon Gekko, I soon lost 30% of it.  :chuckle:

I think I could do that again now and do better. I'd like to have a dabble if I could find the "new" Sharepeople that everyone is using. Somewhere I could bung all my old paper stuff into the CREST system and have it all online to buy and sell at will. And toss a few quid in to play with.
please tell me where I'm being / have been 'dishonest'? 
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Offline ashbyclarke

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2014, 04:18:32 PM »
I've still got my grans BT shares from original float. Structure changes happened along the way but I still own something in something, be it MM02 or o2 or whatever those shares morphed into today. I remember seeing a £200 cheque due to some restructure a year or two ago. I don't think her original investment was much more........

I bought some Stagecoach in the 90's one day when £500 was burning a hole in my pocket and they were at about 80p. They were pence then and pounds now. I elected dividends in new shares. So I get periodical certificates telling me I have X new shares. That'll be a few grand one day. I just keep getting more free shares!

I once tossed £10k into Sharepeople and self traded for a few months. Thinking I was Gordon Gekko, I soon lost 30% of it.  :chuckle:

I think I could do that again now and do better. I'd like to have a dabble if I could find the "new" Sharepeople that everyone is using. Somewhere I could bung all my old paper stuff into the CREST system and have it all online to buy and sell at will. And toss a few quid in to play with.

Never use forums! Full of shit !!!

I used to follow the FT's recommendations, until I lost a few grand on Sopheon, the most highly tipped share on the planet... I got a cheque for £30 following a rather large investment..... Busted!

I always set a stop loss now, I know what I will gamble and that's it, each time the stock moves north i higher the stop loss, seems to work for me, I make about 20% per month, pays the mortgage! Dread the month it makes a loss, it's coming!!

I tend to use the advice of investment managers, makes research a little easier or I use my own inside knowledge, nothing is guaranteed though.
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're gonna feel all day - Frank Sinatra

Offline Ste

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Re: an investment opportunity (not sure I would though)
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2014, 04:31:54 PM »
I know someone who over the last year has lost £80k on latest the share dealing fad.

Also another guy I was working with implored me to buy Gold, Krugerrand's I think they where, the actual ones. He bought a few, about 5 at something like £800 each. That was 2009. I caught up with him 2012 on another gig and asked him about them, ended up selling them recently and made about £20 each on them.

I prefer to live off my brain and stick the profits from that in the bank and leave them there until I need them. Not interested in tying cash up for what may well be a tiny return or a negative one.

There are no guaranteed 20 or 30% ers!
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