Is Ukraine a Failed State?

[CC3]

There is also an Odessa in Upstate NY about 100 miles from my home. If I were to drop you into it you would think you were in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana.  Nothing like the pearl of the Black Sea. But I am sure the citizens there would dislike LT also. 

Lee

Also an Odessa in west Texas...one of the most miserable places in the USA.

[AvHdB]

There is also an Odessa in Upstate NY about 100 miles from my home. If I were to drop you into it you would think you were in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana.  Nothing like the pearl of the Black Sea. But I am sure the citizens there would dislike LT also. 

Lee

Also an Odessa in west Texas...one of the most miserable places in the USA.

Yes and with an international airport. More than one traveler not so long ago have found themselves at the wrong airport after a long journey.

[CC3]

Odessa, TX does not have its own commercial airport. It shares an airline-served airport with Midland, TX. As a Texas based airline pilot I frequently flew into and out of MAF in 70's and 80's. It was not an international airport then, although it did connect to international hubs of IAH, DFW, and DEN.

[lordtiberius]

The fact that Ukraine is such an unpleasant place is not the lone opinion of a disgruntled American, but a view verified  by an international body with exhaustive evidence of  its findings.  One only need read the World Economic Forum on Travel competitiveness to see Ukraine  as  one of the most unfriendly places to visit.  (perhaps they stayed at the Hotel dnipro  too Chris.)

Being a pleasant place to visit is part and parcel of being a successful and stable state.  If Ukraine had the tourist reputation that Iceland or New Zealand, do you think we would discuss it as  a failed state?

If  I were Rinat Akmetov, I would support Eu membership.  I could statge my traficking activities at home instead of Amsterdam and still reach the same markets.

Russia wants Ukraine back and it might get it back, not because Ukraine does not have wonderful, brave  and talented people.  It is because the West has failed to support the majority of Ukrainians who wish for a better future . 

Putin has not made such mistakes.  he supports his people.  He is committed to their survival in the  face of international condemnation.  where America cannot resolve differences among  revolutionaries in a revolution it started, and no I am not talking about the Arab Spring. 

Ukraine's neighbors enjoy a higher per capita income  thn they do with the exception of those states alliedbto Putin.  You do Ukraine no favors by being this naive ad foolish ahout the chanlleges both history and geography  pose

[TomT]

I found Ukraine to be a very pleasant place to visit. As a bonus, ceftriaxone, azithromycin and doxycycline are readily available over the counter. These drugs are especially useful if one isn't too careful about with whom he associates.


... and Estonia is not and has never been part of Finland.

[el_guero]

Well it certainly has its problems, what country doesn't? However, for the first six months of last year (sorry don't have newer data)  Ukraines GNP was +3% while inflation was minus 3.5%, that is better than many of the "successful" states.

Common indicators of a 'failed state' include a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory, non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality, refugees and involuntary movement of populations and sharp economic decline and while you could say Ukraine suffers partially from a few of these indicators, it has as yet, not registered an alert on the Failed States Index.

And usually a failed state has widespread warfare.

I gotta wonder what part of Ukraine they would consider 'failed?'  Can our non-resident experts name the cities and raions where they have seen Ukraine as a failed nation state?

[cufflinks]

Ukraine is not a failed state. Not by definition, nor in reality. But there's no denying that Ukraine is woefully mismanaged.

To understand the past Soviet system is to understand just how deeply embedded it is even today. I seriously doubt that any of us will see it change so dramatically in our life time. IMO, it will take more than a generation to move away from its core. Nevertheless, Ukraine, and to a much larger extent Russia, has already made strides to become more fiscally in tune with the industrialized world.

Ukraine is too indebted to Russia for Russia to allow it just to enter the EU. The EU doesn't want the headache that Ukraine would bring, at least now with its own situation, and that adds to the complexity. Russia, on the other hand, will not allow Ukraine to fail, won't happen. It also won't let Ukraine go without a fight. That is of course, if Russia doesn't take a turn for the worse economically.

Danchick - as you are on the ground in Moscow the epicenter of Russian wealth and power - curious the tremors in society you sense that could allow for Russia to take a turn for the worse economically? Interesting that Roman Abramovich's 500 ft Yacht is docked in NYC while his wife gives birth to their child in NYC - press and media rife with Billionaire anchor baby speculations - having a son who is born in the USA and thereby automatically a US Citizen gives them a long term anchor in NYC should they ever need to bail if Putin or his subsequent Czars of RU Inc decide to repatriate Oiligarch's "ill gotten gains" - seems a lot like what the Obama, California and French Administrations are trying to do - recapture the wealth of those who create it - could lead to a Brain and Capital drain out of RU no? 

Off course RU has a great influence over UA's economy by setting UA's energy prices - off course that used to be offset by UA being RU's bread basket and with the Moscow regions droughts  UA should be able to counterbalance energy costs with increased ag production - lead by the Europeans buying up all the UA farmlands over the next decade or so.

Seems RU's worst case 13% income taxes (Compared to USA 50%+/- Fed and State or Frances 65%) is a major reason for so much of RU wealth creation and accumulation over the past two decades.  Just saying.

Your on the ground perspective is highly appreciated.

[RichyRich]

Seems RU's worst case 13% income taxes, compared to Frances 65%

I suggest you do your research, it is 45% with an additional 3% for incomes between 200.000-500.000€ and 4% for incomes over 1.000.000€, the 75% tax rate (not 65% as you seem to think) was ruled unconstitutional and thus not allowed to be implemented.

[lordtiberius]

Seems RU's worst case 13% income taxes, compared to Frances 65%

I suggest you do your research, it is 45% with an additional 3% for incomes between 200.000-500.000€ and 4% for incomes over 1.000.000€, the 75% tax rate (not 65% as you seem to think) was ruled unconstitutional and thus not allowed to be implemented.

Hi kettle.


Interesting conversation I had with my future in laws.  If I was Canadian or Australian how different it would have been.  I told them that the whole world knows the Ukrainian people earn for freedom but the corrupt and evil people of the West have no guts and no class and will continue to send sexpats. 

Ukraine is a cleft country with strong Russified roots made more strong by Putin an able leader who stands by his allies and has a vision.  Why is it that Ukraine has not had 1 leader in 20 years from Western Ukraine!  Why is it that my pseudo intellectual adversaries know Russia's interests in the region but who can tell me America's interests?  UK's or EU interests?

Crickets?

I am glad that you are angry at me.  The situation is indeed pathetic.  Unless you are Canadian, you bear some responsiblity over Ukraine's demise. 

I told my future in laws that the road to Bila Tserkvas was worse than the Mosul Bagdad road in 2004.  But that we Westerners are blind to the responsibilities of freedom

[AvHdB]

The situation is indeed pathetic.  Unless you are Canadian, you bear some responsiblity over Ukraine's demise.

I have followed this thread but will refrain from commenting for now. Lord Tiberius, the above stands out. Excuse me often I can confuse the meaning of something everything, but the above? Please enlighten us.

[lordtiberius]

el_g,

Rua says I cannot PM u back.  My email is [edit: nope - we don't do that].  God Bless You sir.  Keep standing up for truth!!!!!

[ashbyclarke]

Seems RU's worst case 13% income taxes, compared to Frances 65%

I suggest you do your research, it is 45% with an additional 3% for incomes between 200.000-500.000€ and 4% for incomes over 1.000.000€, the 75% tax rate (not 65% as you seem to think) was ruled unconstitutional and thus not allowed to be implemented.

Rich, for Russia you are wrong.

It's 13%, seems you've forgotten just like you forget the nightspots.

No idea what it is in Ukraine, but most are paid part cash and part via the books.

[TomT]

el_g,

Rua says I cannot PM u back.  My email is [edit: nope - we don't do that].  God Bless You sir.  Keep standing up for truth!!!!!

You two should get together with Sterlin and start a forum of your own.

[RichyRich]

Hi kettle.

Interesting conversation I had with my future in laws.  If I was Canadian or Australian how different it would have been.  I told them that the whole world knows the Ukrainian people earn for freedom but the corrupt and evil people of the West have no guts and no class and will continue to send sexpats. 

Ukraine is a cleft country with strong Russified roots made more strong by Putin an able leader who stands by his allies and has a vision.  Why is it that Ukraine has not had 1 leader in 20 years from Western Ukraine!  Why is it that my pseudo intellectual adversaries know Russia's interests in the region but who can tell me America's interests?  UK's or EU interests?

Crickets?

I am glad that you are angry at me.  The situation is indeed pathetic.  Unless you are Canadian, you bear some responsiblity over Ukraine's demise. 

I told my future in laws that the road to Bila Tserkvas was worse than the Mosul Bagdad road in 2004.  But that we Westerners are blind to the responsibilities of freedom

WTF are you quoting me for LT? can you not differentiate between different posts?

Rich, for Russia you are wrong.

It's 13%, seems you've forgotten just like you forget the nightspots.

No idea what it is in Ukraine, but most are paid part cash and part via the books.

I wasn't talking about Russia or Ukraine... I was pointing out his inaccurate quote of the French tax rate, no where did I state I was talking about Russia, I thought it was clear from my pointing out of his mistake about the 65% rate being 75% that I was talking about France.

[TomT]

WTF are you quoting me for LT? can you not differentiate between different posts?

What's the difference whom he quotes? It's all gibberish, anyway.

[ashbyclarke]

Well it certainly has its problems, what country doesn't? However, for the first six months of last year (sorry don't have newer data)  Ukraines GNP was +3% while inflation was minus 3.5%, that is better than many of the "successful" states.

Common indicators of a 'failed state' include a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory, non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality, refugees and involuntary movement of populations and sharp economic decline and while you could say Ukraine suffers partially from a few of these indicators, it has as yet, not registered an alert on the Failed States Index.

And usually a failed state has widespread warfare.

I gotta wonder what part of Ukraine they would consider 'failed?'  Can our non-resident experts name the cities and raions where they have seen Ukraine as a failed nation state?

I wonder why you quoted chris?

What's your expertise in this area?

Isn't mafia a form of failed state? Or is that success?

Not that our country isn't without a form of mafia, the US is one big failed nation (mafia type management), just in a much more modern way.

Life's so complicated.

[lordtiberius]

Ashby is right.

But Oh Canada your star shines so bright!

[mhr7]

Seems RU's worst case 13% income taxes, compared to Frances 65%

I suggest you do your research, it is 45% with an additional 3% for incomes between 200.000-500.000€ and 4% for incomes over 1.000.000€, the 75% tax rate (not 65% as you seem to think) was ruled unconstitutional and thus not allowed to be implemented.

Hi kettle.


Interesting conversation I had with my future in laws.  If I was Canadian or Australian how different it would have been.  I told them that the whole world knows the Ukrainian people earn for freedom but the corrupt and evil people of the West have no guts and no class and will continue to send sexpats. 

Ukraine is a cleft country with strong Russified roots made more strong by Putin an able leader who stands by his allies and has a vision.  Why is it that Ukraine has not had 1 leader in 20 years from Western Ukraine!  Why is it that my pseudo intellectual adversaries know Russia's interests in the region but who can tell me America's interests?  UK's or EU interests?

Crickets?

I am glad that you are angry at me.  The situation is indeed pathetic.  Unless you are Canadian, you bear some responsiblity over Ukraine's demise. 

I told my future in laws that the road to Bila Tserkvas was worse than the Mosul Bagdad road in 2004.  But that we Westerners are blind to the responsibilities of freedom

The future in-laws must be so thrilled to welcome you to the family. Keep telling them what a shit country they live in, I'm sure they'll want to introduce you to everyone.

[Danchik]

Cufflinks,

I'm not suggesting that Russia is in any financial distress, certainly not at the moment nor will it be in the next few years. However, it is a petrostate. I can't predict the future, but it is my opinion that oil will continue to sell at all time highs well into the future despite the growth of shale production.

This doesn't mean Russia can just sit back and relax, and let the petro dollars offset their lack of reforms and diversification.

I've been on the fence about Putin and his return to power. To be honest, I was hoping he would seize the moment and understand his place in history and move this country to the next level by improving the business interests for foreign companies, as well as improving the quality and competitiveness of its domestic ventures. Also by understanding the unlimited potential of its people/country and reinvesting those petro profits back into the country, instead of continuing to line the pockets of his cronies and perpetuate not only capital flight, but a "brain drain".

The jury is still out at the moment, and it's my belief that we won't really know the extent of his policies until at least 2015-16. Entering the WTO should help the competitive balance and improve pricing and quality, not to mention continue Russia's rather robust GDP growth moving forward. Foreign companies had anticipated this and have been lining up since 2011 at their perspective embassies looking to obtain permits that allow them to enter this market. Outside of petro dollars, consumerism is the other saving grace for Russia. Certainly, they go hand in hand.

For Russia to move in the right direction it's no secret that it needs to invest more in infrastructure, education, agriculture, technology/science/medicine and legitimate small business ventures, and not waste so much on its military. This would be a good start. It also needs to spread its wealth to the regions and not concentrate itself and its power base mainly in Moscow. There have been strides made, and Russia no longer shuns outside expertise to help improve the areas mentioned above

But this is Russia. The "old" school Soviet state still calls the shots internally and Putin is, or has to be loyal to that to coexist. I firmly believe that Putin is not an autocratic, but a semi-autocratic leader. It takes an enormous amount of money to get things done here as opposed to other countries because of its brand of corruption and I don't see that changing in the near future. Most, at least the ones in power, still operate on the "let me take what I can get now" attitude, instead of realizing a more profitable long term future in which they could still line their pockets, but also help raise many people out of poverty. 

I stay optimistic about things here and Putin. I think the one good thing from the protests last year, was Putin realizing that he couldn't continue his business as usual BS, and that he had to do something beneficial for the masses. I think he has made some concessions in that direction, but I feel it won't be until the "old" school guard dies out that things will really start to move in the right direction.

I see a change in mentality with the young generation. There will always be that "old" mentality as long as these old schools keep having children. Overall though, people here want to do things the right way, and they don't ask for much. That's the kicker. They want as many as possible to benefit from the spoils. They want to do business as business should be done, and they want to have the same freedoms and choices as those who already have this. It certainly is possible, time will tell.

[Danchik]

Interesting that Roman Abramovich's 500 ft Yacht is docked in NYC while his wife gives birth to their child in NYC - press and media rife with Billionaire anchor baby speculations - having a son who is born in the USA and thereby automatically a US Citizen gives them a long term anchor in NYC should they ever need to bail if Putin or his subsequent Czars of RU Inc decide to repatriate Oiligarch's "ill gotten gains"

Most Russians who have the means to have their wife give birth in America will do so. It has more to do with the quality of medical care than solidifying an escape from anything.

I'm sure Abramovich has already moved his wealth to keep it safe, and is not worried about having any other citizenship. He also has a rather good relationship with Putin.

[RichyRich]

Most Russians who have the means to have their wife give birth in America will do so. It has more to do with the quality of medical care than solidifying an escape from anything.

I am sorry what? quality of healthcare? you are joking surely?

Also having a child born in America is more of a burden than a positive, America is hardly free, the child should be born in a European state, great free healthcare, an education system that educates and quality of living is pretty high also we are quite free although you still can't make terrorism related jokes in an airport, a ship is fine but not an airport

[missAmeno]

I told my future in laws that the road to Bila Tserkvas was worse than the Mosul Bagdad road in 2004.

Are you talking about highway M05 (highway that connects Kiev with Odessa and goes through Bila Tserkva) or some road in particular on entrance to Bila Tserkva?

[Danchik]

Most Russians who have the means to have their wife give birth in America will do so. It has more to do with the quality of medical care than solidifying an escape from anything.

I am sorry what? quality of healthcare? you are joking surely?

Also having a child born in America is more of a burden than a positive, America is hardly free, the child should be born in a European state, great free healthcare, an education system that educates and quality of living is pretty high also we are quite free although you still can't make terrorism related jokes in an airport, a ship is fine but not an airport

Your anti American BS is really beyond boring. The fact is the health care in America is better than Russia (the reason I said most Russians BTW) and better than most, if not all places, when you have the money. The education system at the university level is second to none.

I happen to know some Russians of means who have done just that, have their baby in America.
 
If I had Abramovich's money, I'd prefer to live in America than say anywhere in the UK. When you have that kind of money, all the other crap you talk about makes absolutely no difference, sorry.

Really, your American bashing is for the most part ill-informed. And really all you Brits who can't seem to let it go would be better served spending your energy on more important things. All it shows to me when you do bash, is your ignorance and confidence level, or the lack of one. Your country is hardly setting the standards of living for the rest of the world.

[RichyRich]

Your anti American BS is really beyond boring. The fact is the health care in America is better than Russia (the reason I said most Russians BTW) and better than most, if not all places, when you have the money. The education system at the university level is second to none.

I happen to know some Russians of means who have done just that, have their baby in America.
 
If I had Abramovich's money, I'd prefer to live in America than say anywhere in the UK. When you have that kind of money, all the other crap you talk about makes absolutely no difference, sorry.

Really, your American bashing is for the most part ill-informed. And really all you Brits who can't seem to let it go would be better served spending your energy on more important things. All it shows to me when you do bash, is your ignorance and confidence level, or the lack of one. Your country is hardly setting the standards of living for the rest of the world.

Wooo!! Better than Russia, worse than Switzerland, Germany, Scandinavia and the UK. Education system at university level is better? highly debatable and you have just conceded that primary to college/6th form level is crap in the US.

Congrats to them.

If I had his money I wouldn't go to the US, I wouldn't stay in the UK either but I would stay within the EU.

My American bashing is only American bashing as you perceive it to be such, it isn't ill-informed if it is you that takes it to be bashing and not my intention for it to be bashing. Our country does just fine thank you and our living standards are better than most countries not that it makes a difference to me. Ignorance is brilliant and my confidence and arrogance is through the roof

[TomT]

I told my future in laws that the road to Bila Tserkvas was worse than the Mosul Bagdad road in 2004.

Are you talking about highway M05 (highway that connects Kiev with Odessa and goes through Bila Tserkva) or some road in particular on entrance to Bila Tserkva?

He may have been alluding to the Jews being driven out of the town during the 40s. Of course, that makes no sense because it would have been "the road FROM Bila Tserka." Not making any sense is a familiar motif, however.

The best possible case is that the in-laws didn't understand a word of English and attributed the weirdness to an artifact of translation.