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Author Topic: Is Ukraine a Failed State?  (Read 16311 times)

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #285 on: August 14, 2018, 04:08:22 PM »
Claiming Putin to be the best Russian Prez ever, what a sad joke.

Russia has no McDonalds to export. No Apple computers or Microsoft software. No Boeing Aircraft or Harley Davidson. No Dunkin’ Donuts.

Just military conflict.  :coffeeread:

Since there have been only three Russian Presidents, I think yes Putin is the best so far.

Confederate you forget that Russia is a great and wonderful exporter. Some are self export models and others models require a fair amount of tuning and tweaking as well as cooing and even romancing. Fortunately there is a wide variety of colours, shapes and forms.

Unfortunately they do not come with a shop, maintenance or user manual, so it is Caveat Emptor.
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #286 on: August 14, 2018, 04:15:01 PM »
Claiming Putin to be the best Russian Prez ever, what a sad joke.

Russia has no McDonalds to export. No Apple computers or Microsoft software. No Boeing Aircraft or Harley Davidson. No Dunkin’ Donuts.

Just military conflict.  :coffeeread:

Since there have been only three Russian Presidents, I think yes Putin is the best so far.

Confederate you forget that Russia is a great and wonderful exporter. Some are self export models and others models require a fair amount of tuning and tweaking as well as cooing and even romancing. Fortunately there is a wide variety of colours, shapes and forms.

Unfortunately they do not come with a shop, maintenance or user manual, so it is Caveat Emptor.


When speaking about those types of exports I prefer ones from the Czech Republic or Poland.

I find they’re more reliable and need less maintenance.  :king:
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. P. J. O'Rourke

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #287 on: August 14, 2018, 04:25:56 PM »
There seems to be a lot passion going around about world leaders and invasions and such.

Here's my perspective, stripped of the machinations of any specific person or political group:

Russia has a problem.  It's borders are not secure.  Throughout history it has been invaded, with varying degrees of successes and failures.  The formation of the USSR was near perfect for Russia - buffer states on the west, southwest, and south, friendly or insignificant nations (geo-politically speaking) to the southeast.  But the SSR ultimately failed internally.

With the dissolution, Russia still had friendly buffer nations surrounding it.  Then came Maidan, and a new government that was looking to be a part of the EU and NATO.  Most likely NATO would be not open hostilities with Russia and dwindle over the years, and maybe decades later Russia would even join the EU (pure speculation and far fetched, but possible)

However, as the past 2 centuries+ has shown, Russia was invaded by the west.  Swedes, Prussians, French, Germans, etc.  So, for the sake of national interest and security, Russia needs a new buffer zone - Crimea and Donbass.  Straight invasion and takeover is politically difficult.  Encouraging and supporting local separatists efforts is lower risk and achieves the same result.  If it stresses and destabilizes the rest of Ukraine, even better (for Russia).

Sevastopol is critical to Russia - it is the only warm water port Russia has with relatively easy access.  It is not much of use to other nations.  They would desire it, but it is a logistical nightmare to support and is too vulnerable.

Russia could have made Sevastopol an exclave like Kaliningrad, but if the rest of Crimea is in the hands of a not-so-friendly state, then it is Kaliningrad all over again.  Therefore Crimea itself is critical for Russia, in addition to being a handy buffer zone.

Same for the southwest.  Georgia was becoming more westernized, but the caucasus creates a natural land barrier, except along the black sea shore.  Solution - Abkhazia republic.  A pro-Russian buffer zone. 

There is open terrain in the eastern side of the caucasus, but Azerbaijan is a friendly nation and not a concern...yet.  If Azerbaijan becomes more westernized, there will probably be another Russian support for the autonomous pro-russian people who would conveniently be located north of Baku (Guba-Khachmaz).  Or encourage and support populist change from a pro-western administration for a pro-russian one (Abulfaz Elchibey).  Much easier if the latter can be achieved.

Kazakhstan is interesting.  There is no practical way Russia can secure it's border with Kazakhstan.  It has to be pro-russian for border security.

I am not saying any of the above is morally right or just. I am only laying out the military and nation security viewpoint.

An interesting perspective though I do not entirely agree.

Russia has repeatedly invaded its Western neighbors as well is maintaining a very aggressive attitude regarding there seizure of the Kuril Islands in the East.

Historically Russia dominated and enslaved Ukraine in one form or the other. Sometimes they point to the fact that Kiev is in fact the birthplace of the Kievan Rus identity. While it moved to Moscow they still thought and think of Kiev as there own.

Bear in mind the entire Donbass conflict started out as little more than a violent conflict between rival ogliarchs and there enforcers.
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot


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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #288 on: August 15, 2018, 10:12:01 AM »
In an attempt to move back to the core of this thread.

https://www.unian.info/society/10224501-over-400-000-ukrainians-leave-country-since-late-march-2018-for-work-abroad-ukrainianpeopleleaks.html

Over 400,000 Ukrainians leave country since late March 2018 for work abroad – Ukrainianpeopleleaks 15:47, 14 August 2018 UKRAINE 1075 0 Two Ukrainians leave their country every minute in search of a better life. pixabay.com Over 400,000 citizens of Ukraine have left their country since late March 2018 to work abroad. Such a statistics is presented by the Ukrainianpeopleleaks platform, which is an online count tool used to estimate migrant workers leaving Ukraine. Read also Over 360,000 Ukrainians leave their country since March 2018 for work abroad Two Ukrainians leave their country every minute in search of a better life, the platform says, referring to Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin's words. According to him, 100,000 people leave Ukraine for work abroad every month. The Social Policy Ministry’s estimates are more ambitious and frightening: labor migration has already involved nine million Ukrainians.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/society/10224501-over-400-000-ukrainians-leave-country-since-late-march-2018-for-work-abroad-ukrainianpeopleleaks.html
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot