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Author Topic: Is Ukraine a Failed State?  (Read 19819 times)

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Online AvHdB

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Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« on: March 12, 2013, 12:56:14 PM »
The two passages below made earlier on RUA brought this thread on.

To say that most of a country's homicide rate is due to fights caused by alcoholism and this has lasted for years says Ukraine is verging on being a failed state.

Some of us love Ukraine and for different reasons. But the reality is Ukraine is a sinking democracy - it has less to do with alcohol. The problem is corrupt public officials and the reality of the hang over of communism.

Brass I understand what you're saying, especially about high functioning alcoholics, I've seen them in the military. However what Halo is saying is that most of the homicide rate in Ukraine is due alcohol and fights. A homicide rate that is noticably higher than the rate in the US where we're killing people with guns. That's really hard to believe.

To say that most of a country's homicide rate is due to fights caused by alcoholism and this has lasted for years says Ukraine is verging on being a failed state.

Hard to believe or not, it is reality.

Ukraine is not on the verge of being a failed state.  It is a failed state.  It has only survived to date because of foreign aid, IMF loans (which will soon be in default), and Russian gas transit payments, which its greedy politicians ended up losing.

I tend to be an optimistic person but I understand what Halo is writing. While there are a multitude of ways to measure a so-called failed state and they can be historical or based on the current situation it is interesting (as well as sad). My feeling yes Ukraine is a failed state – but the same can not be said of the average citizen, and that is what makes Ukraine great. Many of us go to Ukraine because we already have a spouse or have family there. Or because we are part of the “merry band of bride seekers”

But what are members feelings?
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot

Offline RichyRich

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2013, 01:11:46 PM »
Yeah it is a failed state, you can buy anything there, more so than in other EE states... only reason I'd go to Ukraine would be to buy a drivers licence so I can transfer it to a Spanish licence but I have one already so it doesn't matter :chuckle:

Offline Chris

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2013, 01:41:23 PM »
Well it certainly has its problems, what country doesn't? However, for the first six months of last year (sorry don't have newer data)  Ukraines GNP was +3% while inflation was minus 3.5%, that is better than many of the "successful" states.

Common indicators of a 'failed state' include a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory, non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality, refugees and involuntary movement of populations and sharp economic decline and while you could say Ukraine suffers partially from a few of these indicators, it has as yet, not registered an alert on the Failed States Index.


Offline Chris

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2013, 02:13:45 PM »
The driving licence discussion has been moved here

Offline Manny

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2013, 04:14:19 PM »
If one looks at the countries that were part of the Soviet Union, and what happened afterwards, one sees a picture.

Estonia for example, in recent times is desperately trying to be part of Scandinavia and is still a tiger economy. Lithuania, Latvia and Poland have all embraced the EU. Things are getting better in all these places. Russia has made vast progress and Belarus still resides under dictatorship (or is it a controlled democracy?).

Lets sidetrack to our genre. The MOB industry. It is only still evident in Ukraine. When did someone last get scammed or locked in an apartment in Russia? Lithuania? Years ago (that we read). Yet MOB based scams and petty criminality still abound in Ukraine. Even small-time expat characters are moving in and marketing themselves to the needy now. The bubble will soon surely burst, but for now, Ukraine (and maybe a Stan or two) is the last chance saloon for the stereotypical MOB bloke with unreasonable expectations. Once upon a time, those guys had the whole FSU at their feet. No more.

Ukraine is stuck between a rock and hard place. EU membership is a decade or two away; if ever. Yet they choose to eschew Russia mostly. Well, what is left? The Russian leaning dictatorship of Belarus to the north, the Muslim state of Turkey to the south over the Black Sea, the EU to the west and Russia to the east. Having eschewed Russia (who will gladly welcome them back), they have nowhere to hang their hat. Ukraine is locked in by those who it either eschews, or is culturally incompatible with, or who wont accept it. Landlocked if you will.

Unless they throw in the towel and willingly join the Russian sphere of influence, it will be a decade or two before they can get their act together and be in the EU club. Until then, geography dictates that they will remain a pariah state; or maybe a failed state depending on your definition.

My money is on Russia gaining more political influence there over time, and them slowly slipping back into the fold that is the Federation. Money from Moscow is the only money on the table from what I can see. I don't see that as a bad thing.

None of that affects the experience of the traveller today though. The Baltics in the late nineties were pretty much like what Ukraine seems to be today [its a process - but Ukraine is on the slower road]. For sure, the government might not work properly, and there may be corruption everywhere. But the people are warm [once you get away from the tourist-centric scammers], and nice experiences are to be had, as we sometimes read.

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2013, 08:48:15 PM »
I think Manny paints a fairly accurate picture of the reality of Ukraine.

There is one point and that was clear with the Baltic states the politicians more or less followed the will and wishes of the people. In Ukraine they political elite are for the most part a self serving group. They see the pickings are richer on the Russian table and lean that way. I think the average citizen yearns for closer ties with Western and Central Europe.

Will the peoples will prevail? I guess we all will know the answer in 10 or so years.
“If you aren't in over your head, how do you know how tall you are?” T.S. Eliot

Offline lordtiberius

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2013, 12:06:05 AM »
No.

When you have Al Qeda homesteading in Lypky and have to walk over the headless corpses at the Pinchuk Art Centre come talk to me.

Ukraine is not a pleasant country to visit and it does have its problems.  But is it likely to go the way of Checheniyastan?

Offline Chris

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2013, 12:44:29 AM »
No.

When you have Al Qeda homesteading in Lypky and have to walk over the headless corpses at the Pinchuk Art Centre come talk to me.

Ukraine is not a pleasant country to visit and it does have its problems.  But is it likely to go the way of Checheniyastan?

Your experiences obviously vary quite differently to mine and others.

Offline mhr7

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2013, 02:55:39 AM »
No.

When you have Al Qeda homesteading in Lypky and have to walk over the headless corpses at the Pinchuk Art Centre come talk to me.

Ukraine is not a pleasant country to visit and it does have its problems.  But is it likely to go the way of Checheniyastan?

Your experiences obviously vary quite differently to mine and others.
Agreed. Going back for a 5th time next month.
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Online andrewfi

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2013, 03:15:42 AM »
Failed state, not a bit of it. The definition Chris used simply does not apply.

Over the past few years, albeit with some setbacks from the Orange Revolution and its inevitable failure, much has been achieved.

Unlike Estonia and the other Baltic states Ukraine has not had to sell its assets to foreign businesses in order to survive, Ukraine went through great tribulations but was able to emerge with ownership of her own assets and with efficiency increasing to a point that made them economically viable on the world stage.

Are things perfect? No
Are the country's leaders perfect? No

But they are on a path. Probably 15-20 years behind Estonia but moving along well enough that few women these days see a better life with a fat old foreigner than in their own country. The tipping point that occurred in Estonia in 2000 and in Russia in 2007 has probably already been reached - any MOB firm that has to advertise for online chat hostesses has already lost that game; closure and retrenchment comes next.
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Offline Chris

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2013, 04:45:45 AM »
Failed state, not a bit of it. The definition Chris used simply does not apply.

Over the past few years, albeit with some setbacks from the Orange Revolution and its inevitable failure, much has been achieved.

Unlike Estonia and the other Baltic states Ukraine has not had to sell its assets to foreign businesses in order to survive, Ukraine went through great tribulations but was able to emerge with ownership of her own assets and with efficiency increasing to a point that made them economically viable on the world stage.

Are things perfect? No
Are the country's leaders perfect? No

But they are on a path. Probably 15-20 years behind Estonia but moving along well enough that few women these days see a better life with a fat old foreigner than in their own country. The tipping point that occurred in Estonia in 2000 and in Russia in 2007 has probably already been reached - any MOB firm that has to advertise for online chat hostesses has already lost that game; closure and retrenchment comes next.



My view too  tiphat

Offline sharonhaber00

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2013, 04:52:23 AM »
Any one's experiences will be different, depending on what he is looking there. After all most of the blokes on here go there for its girls, duh  :duh:
Nadie no sabe lo que tiene hasta el día que lo pierde.

Offline Muzh_1

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2013, 07:04:02 AM »

Ukraine is stuck between a rock and hard place. EU membership is a decade or two away; if ever. Yet they choose to eschew Russia mostly. Well, what is left? The Russian leaning dictatorship of Belarus to the north, the Muslim state of Turkey to the south over the Black Sea, the EU to the west and Russia to the east. Having eschewed Russia (who will gladly welcome them back), they have nowhere to hang their hat. Ukraine is locked in by those who it either eschews, or is culturally incompatible with, or who wont accept it. Landlocked if you will.

Unless they throw in the towel and willingly join the Russian sphere of influence, it will be a decade or two before they can get their act together and be in the EU club. Until then, geography dictates that they will remain a pariah state; or maybe a failed state depending on your definition.

My money is on Russia gaining more political influence there over time, and them slowly slipping back into the fold that is the Federation. Money from Moscow is the only money on the table from what I can see. I don't see that as a bad thing.


That's a lot of wishful thinking.

First, this eschewing you talk about is just a left over from the Kuchma era. And Yanukonvikt being his stooge disciple is trying to emulate the same game but you cannot accuse him of being the brightest of the thugs.

Next, Belarus and Turkey are of no concern to the thieves and murderers oligarchs as of today, so the point with these two countries is moot.

That Russia will be happy to take them into their fold? Just like you would embrace a spoiled and bratty child and love him. There is no other way of explaining this.

Let's be frank here. They are not throwing any towel away nor they would ever be inclined to do so. That is inviting a civil war. The thieves and murderers oligarchs from both Russia and Ukraine don't want that. There is too much at stake here that the Ukrainian thugs would willingly throw everything away by joining the EU.

They see the pickings are richer on the Russian table and lean that way.

See above. Who ever told you that is trying to sell you a bridge.

I think the average citizen yearns for closer ties with Western and Central Europe.

Will the peoples will prevail? I guess we all will know the answer in 10 20 or so years.

I had to fix your projection. You'll have to wait for the second generation. The prevailing one has too much Soviet in them still.

Is it a failed state? In the eyes of many, yes.

In the eyes of their country men? An even split. Once the Soviet relics die, ask the question again.

Offline CC3

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2013, 10:41:17 AM »
No.

When you have Al Qeda homesteading in Lypky and have to walk over the headless corpses at the Pinchuk Art Centre come talk to me.

Ukraine is not a pleasant country to visit and it does have its problems.  But is it likely to go the way of Checheniyastan?

LT, your disillusionment (after only one visit in the dead of winter) is profound and obviously extremely subjective and not shared by those of us who have returned multiple times, spending far more time there, in all seasons, than you did. Maybe you should temper your negative critique with the caveat that your statements are only your personal opinions.

 I, personally, always look forward to returning to far eastern UA (from Donets'k to Luhans'k). I don't let the extreme russification and third world infrastructure get me down, because the people are some of the best on earth, especially once you are admitted to their circles of friendship ( and, in the case of my fiancee, of love). As the old Soviet mindset disappears due to aging and mortality, I foresee a diminution of klepto-oligarchic power and influence, and a growth in the awareness and power of the general populace, leading to Baltic nation-like development and improvement in overall living circumstances.

However, if that personal prediction fails to come about, my wife, daughter and I will hop on the big bird and head for 'the hills' (the Colorado Rockies).
The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other *snip* die for his.
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Offline HoundDaddyLee

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2013, 06:53:07 PM »
No.

When you have Al Qeda homesteading in Lypky and have to walk over the headless corpses at the Pinchuk Art Centre come talk to me.

Ukraine is not a pleasant country to visit and it does have its problems.  But is it likely to go the way of Checheniyastan?

LT,
You are way out of bounds here. Beyond your nutty religious views, you are dead wrong about Ukraine. All of my trips there have been wonderful. Please do the FSUW a favor and stick to women in your church. We will all thank you.

Lee

Offline lordtiberius

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2013, 12:30:02 AM »
Study history.   Ukraine has a history of foriegn dominance and intervention.  Poland' Russia, Turkey, Greece, Persia have all been pulling the puppet strings for centuries.  The failure of the orange revolution denotes the failure of the west to shape policy in any meaningful way.

It is generous to categorize the current regime as a client state from Moscow.  muzh s description is more accurate.  That said only Canada has been consistent and strong. 

Comparisons to the Baltics are not helpful.  Estonia is really a part of Finland and Lithinunia  a part of Poland.  They oppose Russian dominance .  ukraine is as scholars noted in the gray zone.

Could Ukraine be westernized?  The under 23 crowd is  very differentthan their elders.  But let's face it, the west does not shaoe policy over there like Putin does.  Its  reactive and incompetent.  Could Ukraine become a failed state?  Yes,  and it could happen quickly just like it did in Chechenya nad Georgia.

skepticism and vigiliance serve the wife hunter well gentlemen.

Posted from Frankfurt airport

Offline CC3

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2013, 04:12:54 AM »
Study history.   
Comparisons to the Baltics are not helpful.  Estonia is really a part of Finland

Posted from Frankfurt airport
Hyvää Päivää,

My ex-wife is Finnish. All of her relatives, other than our children, reside in Finland. My children are dual Finnish/American citizens. Foregoing indicates my bonafides to make the statement that Estonia is NOT considered or desired to be, by Finns, a "part of Finland".

LT, your pseudo-authoritative declarations are both irritating and amusing at the same time.

"Posted from Frankfurt airport"? Are we supposed to be impressed? Are you traveling sans TR? Welcome out of the US 'bubble' into the real world!

Näkemiin
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Offline RichyRich

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2013, 04:51:28 AM »
Study history.   Ukraine has a history of foriegn dominance and intervention.  Poland' Russia, Turkey, Greece, Persia have all been pulling the puppet strings for centuries.  The failure of the orange revolution denotes the failure of the west to shape policy in any meaningful way.

Estonia is really a part of Finland and Lithinunia a part of Poland.

Could Ukraine be westernized?

Posted from Frankfurt airport
Please learn to spell, I know you are not the sharpest tool in the box but it is not an excuse for poor spelling.

Turkey and Greece? you must be joking, Greece can't do anything without EU help. Last I checked Turkish influence wasn't really there in Ukraine, sure in the South there is some but as far influence that means something, very little. Persia no longer exists, it is Iran now, nice to see that the US are keeping up with the times.

Both incorrect statements, the Estonians I know don't think that and I only know one Finnish guy so I can't comment on the Finnish side but from an Estonian POV, it is not although they are trying to emulate to an extent, they don't wish to be part of Finland. Lithuania is not part of Poland, where are you getting this crap from? :chuckle:

Yes Ukraine can be westernised, it is just a long hard road with Russia blocking parts... for Ukraine to be a western state, they need the new generation or the one after that (I don't think the current generation will be much help) to make things better for Ukraine in general before thinking of reforms to make them more western.

Congratulations you're in Frankfurt... would you like a cookie for leaving the US? putz :fighting0025:

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Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2013, 05:50:05 AM »
Isn't there a Frankfurt in US and A?

Ste

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Offline Anteros

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2013, 06:58:42 AM »
Isn't there a Frankfurt in US and A?

Ste

Posted from my iPhone 6 on iOS 7 beta at my desk where I work in Dublin, Eire.

Beg your pardon but there is no iPhone 6, the latest version is the iPhone 5.
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Offline HoundDaddyLee

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2013, 07:39:13 AM »
Isn't there a Frankfurt in US and A?

Ste

Posted from my iPhone 6 on iOS 7 beta at my desk where I work in Dublin, Eire.

There is also an Odessa in Upstate NY about 100 miles from my home. If I were to drop you into it you would think you were in Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana.  ;D Nothing like the pearl of the Black Sea. But I am sure the citizens there would dislike LT also.  :smokin:

Lee

Offline gazzase

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2013, 08:18:47 AM »
Study history.   Ukraine has a history of foreign dominance and intervention.  Poland' Russia, Turkey, Greece, Persia have all been pulling the puppet strings for centuries.  The failure of the orange revolution denotes the failure of the west to shape policy in any meaningful way.

It is generous to categorize the current regime as a client state from Moscow.  muzh s description is more accurate.  That said only Canada has been consistent and strong. 

Comparisons to the Baltics are not helpful. Estonia is really a part of Finland and Lithinunia  a part of Poland.  They oppose Russian dominance .  ukraine is as scholars noted in the gray zone.

Could Ukraine be westernized?  The under 23 crowd is  very differentthan their elders.  But let's face it, the west does not shaoe policy over there like Putin does.  Its  reactive and incompetent.  Could Ukraine become a failed state?  Yes,  and it could happen quickly just like it did in Chechenya nad Georgia.

skepticism and vigiliance serve the wife hunter well gentlemen.

Posted from Frankfurt airport


 :'( Actually Estonia and Finland was part of Sweden until 1721 and 1809 when Sweden lost this territory to the Russians.  Finland become independent country in 1917 and Estonia 1918. Lithuania has been Russian since 1795 and become independent country in 1918 and have never been polish but they had an alliance with Poland in 14Th century. I hope I do not need to enlighten you what happened with these country's during and after WW2.

Offline Danchik

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2013, 11:32:40 AM »
Ukraine is not a failed state. Not by definition, nor in reality. But there's no denying that Ukraine is woefully mismanaged.

To understand the past Soviet system is to understand just how deeply embedded it is even today. I seriously doubt that any of us will see it change so dramatically in our life time. IMO, it will take more than a generation to move away from its core. Nevertheless, Ukraine, and to a much larger extent Russia, has already made strides to become more fiscally in tune with the industrialized world.

Ukraine is too indebted to Russia for Russia to allow it just to enter the EU. The EU doesn't want the headache that Ukraine would bring, at least now with its own situation, and that adds to the complexity. Russia, on the other hand, will not allow Ukraine to fail, won't happen. It also won't let Ukraine go without a fight. That is of course, if Russia doesn't take a turn for the worse economically.

When it is dark enough, men see the stars.

Offline Muzh_1

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2013, 12:00:23 PM »
Ukraine is not a failed state. Not by definition, nor in reality. But there's no denying that Ukraine is woefully mismanaged.

To understand the past Soviet system is to understand just how deeply embedded it is even today. I seriously doubt that any of us will see it change so dramatically in our life time. IMO, it will take more than a generation to move away from its core. Nevertheless, Ukraine, and to a much larger extent Russia, has already made strides to become more fiscally in tune with the industrialized world.

Ukraine is too indebted to Russia for Russia to allow it just to enter the EU. The EU doesn't want the headache that Ukraine would bring, at least now with its own situation, and that adds to the complexity.


I agree with everything except this.

Russia, on the other hand, will not allow Ukraine to fail, won't happen. It also won't let Ukraine go without a fight. That is of course, if Russia doesn't take a turn for the worse economically.

It is not that Russia will not let Ukraine fail. It is that Ukraine serves some purpose but the moment Ukraine become irrelevant, bye bye.

It's zero sum baby.

Offline Anteros

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Re: Is Ukraine a Failed State?
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2013, 12:08:39 PM »
Ukraine is not a failed state. Not by definition, nor in reality. But there's no denying that Ukraine is woefully mismanaged.

To understand the past Soviet system is to understand just how deeply embedded it is even today. I seriously doubt that any of us will see it change so dramatically in our life time. IMO, it will take more than a generation to move away from its core. Nevertheless, Ukraine, and to a much larger extent Russia, has already made strides to become more fiscally in tune with the industrialized world.

Ukraine is too indebted to Russia for Russia to allow it just to enter the EU. The EU doesn't want the headache that Ukraine would bring, at least now with its own situation, and that adds to the complexity.


I agree with everything except this.

Russia, on the other hand, will not allow Ukraine to fail, won't happen. It also won't let Ukraine go without a fight. That is of course, if Russia doesn't take a turn for the worse economically.

It is not that Russia will not let Ukraine fail. It is that Ukraine serves some purpose but the moment Ukraine become irrelevant, bye bye.

It's zero sum baby.

Ukraine will always be relevant to Russia, because Russia considers Ukraine to be a buffer zone between Russia and NATO.  Russia does not want western tanks on their doorstep.  Furthermore Russia covers Sevastopol as the port for their Black Sea fleet.
Be careful what you wish for, you might get it.


 

 

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